1
00:00:03,080 --> 00:00:09,600
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. In France on Wednesday,

2
00:00:09,640 --> 00:00:15,240
Speaker 1: President Emmanuel Macrone's government lost a no confidence vote. Politicians

3
00:00:15,240 --> 00:00:18,120
Speaker 1: on the right and the left called for that vote

4
00:00:18,160 --> 00:00:21,439
Speaker 1: and supported it after Prime Minister Michel Barnier pushed through

5
00:00:21,440 --> 00:00:25,520
Speaker 1: a budget without parliamentary support. Crisis on the brink as

6
00:00:25,600 --> 00:00:29,880
Speaker 1: France's government faces a vote of no confidence. Barnier has

7
00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:33,240
Speaker 1: recently falls through a budget bill without a vote.

8
00:00:33,360 --> 00:00:36,400
Speaker 2: Is collapse now imminent for this French government? Well?

9
00:00:36,400 --> 00:00:40,000
Speaker 1: That no confidence vote effectively ended Barnier's short tenure as

10
00:00:40,040 --> 00:00:43,479
Speaker 1: Prime minister. Barnier addressed the nation just before the vote,

11
00:00:43,520 --> 00:00:46,280
Speaker 1: calling it an honor to have served with dignity France

12
00:00:46,479 --> 00:00:48,839
Speaker 1: and its people. He'd been on the job for just

13
00:00:48,920 --> 00:00:49,800
Speaker 1: under three months.

14
00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:53,440
Speaker 2: Chu dircus restauranuri a.

15
00:00:56,520 --> 00:01:01,880
Speaker 1: La Today day, there are a lot of questions about

16
00:01:01,920 --> 00:01:06,280
Speaker 1: the future, big ones about President Macron's prospects, what happens

17
00:01:06,280 --> 00:01:09,640
Speaker 1: to his political party, and what's next for France.

18
00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:12,440
Speaker 2: No government has fallen to one of these motions of

19
00:01:12,440 --> 00:01:14,720
Speaker 2: no confidence since nineteen sixty two.

20
00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:17,520
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Stephen Carroll has been in Paris to cover the

21
00:01:17,600 --> 00:01:18,840
Speaker 1: vote and its fallout.

22
00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:23,360
Speaker 2: That time around, it was solved by calling early parliamentary elections.

23
00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:26,319
Speaker 2: But this time around President Macron doesn't have that option

24
00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:29,080
Speaker 2: because he already did it this year, vuding France into

25
00:01:29,360 --> 00:01:31,640
Speaker 2: the political and potentially economic unknown.

26
00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:37,039
Speaker 1: I'm David Gura, and this is the big take from

27
00:01:37,040 --> 00:01:41,560
Speaker 1: Bloomberg News today on the show Turbulence and Uncertainty in France.

28
00:01:41,760 --> 00:01:44,759
Speaker 1: After the government was toppled. What led to the vote

29
00:01:44,800 --> 00:01:50,920
Speaker 1: and what do we know about what comes next? Moments

30
00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:53,440
Speaker 1: after the vote, I caught up with Bloomberg Stephen Carroll

31
00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:56,080
Speaker 1: asked him to walk us through what happened. Get us

32
00:01:56,120 --> 00:01:57,920
Speaker 1: up to speed here. What was the outcome of the vote?

33
00:01:58,040 --> 00:02:02,160
Speaker 2: Well, look, Michel Barnier has added an unhappy records to

34
00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:05,720
Speaker 2: his long career. That is, he is the shortest serving

35
00:02:05,880 --> 00:02:10,000
Speaker 2: prime minister in modern French political history, just two months

36
00:02:10,080 --> 00:02:13,400
Speaker 2: and twenty nine days in office, as he was felled

37
00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:16,000
Speaker 2: by a vote of no confidence in Parliament. Three hundred

38
00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:18,920
Speaker 2: and thirty one deputies voted against him and needed two

39
00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:21,040
Speaker 2: hundred and eighty eight for the motion to pass.

40
00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:23,680
Speaker 1: Stephen mark this moment for us, you're kind of nodding

41
00:02:23,720 --> 00:02:25,799
Speaker 1: to the historic nature of this. What does it mean

42
00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:27,200
Speaker 1: for the country moving forward?

43
00:02:27,600 --> 00:02:32,000
Speaker 2: It plunges France into a relative political unknown. I say

44
00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:36,000
Speaker 2: relative because this has happened once before in nineteen sixty two,

45
00:02:36,200 --> 00:02:38,880
Speaker 2: but the way out of that particular crisis was calling

46
00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:43,120
Speaker 2: early legislative elections. Emmanuel Macron doesn't have that choice this

47
00:02:43,280 --> 00:02:46,080
Speaker 2: time around because he did that last June, which means

48
00:02:46,080 --> 00:02:49,720
Speaker 2: he can't call new ones until next July. So for

49
00:02:49,800 --> 00:02:53,080
Speaker 2: the moment, it means that France has no government. There

50
00:02:53,080 --> 00:02:57,240
Speaker 2: will be caretaker ministers in place. Emmanuel Macron needs to

51
00:02:57,280 --> 00:03:00,639
Speaker 2: find somebody new to take on the impossible check challenge

52
00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:03,720
Speaker 2: as it now looks, of being Prime minister and trying

53
00:03:03,760 --> 00:03:09,320
Speaker 2: to cobble together some sort of working majority or minority

54
00:03:09,480 --> 00:03:13,839
Speaker 2: in Parliament, which on the mats looks very difficult. There

55
00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:17,639
Speaker 2: isn't an easy constituencies to win over, so that means

56
00:03:17,760 --> 00:03:21,000
Speaker 2: no policy making for the moment, no budget for twenty

57
00:03:21,080 --> 00:03:23,799
Speaker 2: twenty five. Once we go past the thirty first of December,

58
00:03:24,080 --> 00:03:27,160
Speaker 2: we get into a special arrangement where essentially the French

59
00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:30,400
Speaker 2: government keeps the lights on and works month to month,

60
00:03:30,760 --> 00:03:34,040
Speaker 2: but that could potentially cause further concerns on markets, but

61
00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:36,560
Speaker 2: also it could see them falling foul of the European

62
00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:39,720
Speaker 2: Union it's already under watch for what the EU calls

63
00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:42,960
Speaker 2: an excessive deficit procedure because its deficit is too high.

64
00:03:43,120 --> 00:03:44,680
Speaker 2: Well that depthit's going to get even bigger.

65
00:03:44,720 --> 00:03:47,960
Speaker 1: Now, this of course was something of great popular interest,

66
00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:49,920
Speaker 1: of interest to investors as well. I know you've been

67
00:03:49,920 --> 00:03:52,160
Speaker 1: paying attention to that. What was the market reaction the

68
00:03:52,240 --> 00:03:53,960
Speaker 1: run up to the vote and what have we seen since?

69
00:03:54,280 --> 00:03:55,800
Speaker 2: Well, look, in the days running up to it, there

70
00:03:55,800 --> 00:03:59,160
Speaker 2: were a number of again unhappy records that we saw

71
00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:02,800
Speaker 2: on French market. So the spread of borrowing costs between

72
00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:06,680
Speaker 2: France and Germany widened to the most since twenty twelve,

73
00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:08,880
Speaker 2: that was the height of the Eurozone crisis. And it's

74
00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:11,160
Speaker 2: always the way that we think about debt in the

75
00:04:11,200 --> 00:04:14,240
Speaker 2: euro Area. Germany is considered the safest bet. So the

76
00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:16,760
Speaker 2: further away you are from Germany when it comes to

77
00:04:16,800 --> 00:04:20,960
Speaker 2: borrowing costs, essentially the worst perception that investors have in you. Now,

78
00:04:21,279 --> 00:04:23,680
Speaker 2: our colleagues who are experts in the markets will also

79
00:04:23,800 --> 00:04:26,680
Speaker 2: point out that France's ten year borrowing cost is still

80
00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:29,960
Speaker 2: below three percent. It's two point nine percent or in

81
00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:32,680
Speaker 2: and around there, and that still means that you know,

82
00:04:32,720 --> 00:04:35,000
Speaker 2: if you're going to get a mortgage in France. You're

83
00:04:35,000 --> 00:04:37,000
Speaker 2: still going to get a pretty good rate on a

84
00:04:37,040 --> 00:04:39,520
Speaker 2: fixed rate mortgage because French mortgages are fixed for the

85
00:04:39,520 --> 00:04:43,080
Speaker 2: whole lifetime of around three percent, which looks pretty good

86
00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:46,200
Speaker 2: if you're sitting in the UK or in the US.

87
00:04:46,480 --> 00:04:48,880
Speaker 2: The other reaction that we've seen on markets has been

88
00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:53,120
Speaker 2: in the Euro weakening further, but difficult to unpick exactly

89
00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:55,760
Speaker 2: how much of that is around France because dollar strength

90
00:04:55,760 --> 00:04:58,080
Speaker 2: has been such a theme of recent weeks as well.

91
00:04:58,240 --> 00:05:01,280
Speaker 2: We've got the euro hovering around one and you do

92
00:05:01,360 --> 00:05:03,960
Speaker 2: have to look for some further sort of more outlandish

93
00:05:04,000 --> 00:05:06,280
Speaker 2: calls for anyone who sees that going back to party,

94
00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:09,599
Speaker 2: at least in the short term. The actual reaction once

95
00:05:09,600 --> 00:05:12,000
Speaker 2: the vote happened a bit of a shrug from markets

96
00:05:12,120 --> 00:05:15,159
Speaker 2: they'd seen it coming. We're not expecting any major moves

97
00:05:15,200 --> 00:05:17,839
Speaker 2: on the back of that. We'll be watching French equities

98
00:05:17,880 --> 00:05:20,640
Speaker 2: to see if French banks are put under further pressure.

99
00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:23,800
Speaker 1: Stephen, this vote came after a string of speeches. What

100
00:05:23,839 --> 00:05:25,640
Speaker 1: did we hear in the run up to the vote?

101
00:05:25,640 --> 00:05:27,240
Speaker 1: Who were the key players who's spoken? What did you

102
00:05:27,279 --> 00:05:28,400
Speaker 1: take away from what they had? The same?

103
00:05:28,480 --> 00:05:30,160
Speaker 2: So we heard from the leader of the far left

104
00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:32,920
Speaker 2: party in Parliament, Eric Correll, and also from Mamine le

105
00:05:33,040 --> 00:05:35,719
Speaker 2: Pen from the far right. They were very keen to

106
00:05:35,839 --> 00:05:39,839
Speaker 2: point to this being an unfair budget, a budget that

107
00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:43,680
Speaker 2: was not what they wanted to see from a government

108
00:05:43,720 --> 00:05:47,919
Speaker 2: and as they saw it hurting the French people. Lots

109
00:05:47,920 --> 00:05:50,559
Speaker 2: of rhetoric and high rhetoric as you'd expect from French

110
00:05:50,600 --> 00:05:54,000
Speaker 2: politicians when given this sort of pulpit, knowing well that

111
00:05:54,120 --> 00:05:57,480
Speaker 2: they had the numbers to topple Michel Bargnia. Michel Barnier

112
00:05:57,560 --> 00:06:00,719
Speaker 2: himself had the chance to defend himself in Parliament before

113
00:06:00,760 --> 00:06:03,680
Speaker 2: the vote was called, calling this a moment of truth

114
00:06:03,680 --> 00:06:07,159
Speaker 2: and a moment of responsibility for the country.

115
00:06:07,480 --> 00:06:10,159
Speaker 1: Introduce us to Barnier. What's this background? Why did Macron

116
00:06:10,200 --> 00:06:11,200
Speaker 1: choose him as Prime minister?

117
00:06:11,520 --> 00:06:14,000
Speaker 2: Michelle Barnier has been a fixture of French politics for

118
00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:16,320
Speaker 2: some fifty years. It was the late seventies when he

119
00:06:16,360 --> 00:06:19,520
Speaker 2: was first elected as an MP for the Utsavoir region

120
00:06:19,520 --> 00:06:22,400
Speaker 2: where he's from and the veteran around the French Alps,

121
00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:25,520
Speaker 2: and he's someone who's served as a minister in previous governments.

122
00:06:25,560 --> 00:06:28,760
Speaker 2: He was a member of the center right Republicans party

123
00:06:28,839 --> 00:06:30,880
Speaker 2: here in France. He went on to a career in

124
00:06:30,920 --> 00:06:34,040
Speaker 2: the European Union as a European Commissioner and also the

125
00:06:34,080 --> 00:06:37,720
Speaker 2: EU's chief negotiator on Brexit. He was a bit of

126
00:06:37,800 --> 00:06:41,120
Speaker 2: a surprise choice for Emmanuel Macron to bring in as

127
00:06:41,160 --> 00:06:44,760
Speaker 2: Prime Minister. They're not from the same political family, but

128
00:06:44,839 --> 00:06:47,840
Speaker 2: in Michel Barnier, he was looking for somebody who was

129
00:06:48,000 --> 00:06:50,880
Speaker 2: perhaps not in the fray of day to day politics,

130
00:06:50,880 --> 00:06:54,000
Speaker 2: someone who might be able to bring together forces that

131
00:06:54,040 --> 00:06:58,520
Speaker 2: weren't traditionally inclined to support Emmanuel Macron's group in Parliament,

132
00:06:58,880 --> 00:07:02,839
Speaker 2: and also leaning in to his legendary negotiation skills. We

133
00:07:02,960 --> 00:07:08,000
Speaker 2: learned this during Brexit that he was an extremely astute negotiator.

134
00:07:08,360 --> 00:07:11,840
Speaker 2: He used the phrase so often during the Brexit negotiations

135
00:07:11,880 --> 00:07:16,240
Speaker 2: that time is ticking, and really time was ticking from

136
00:07:16,280 --> 00:07:19,000
Speaker 2: Michelle Barnier from the moment that he took up this

137
00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:23,240
Speaker 2: job in September. He felt he'd achieved the best compromise possible,

138
00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:26,200
Speaker 2: but didn't have the numbers to vote it through, and

139
00:07:26,240 --> 00:07:28,720
Speaker 2: that's what's led us to this no confidence vote.

140
00:07:30,160 --> 00:07:32,720
Speaker 1: In his speech, Michelle Barnier said he was sure that

141
00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:36,200
Speaker 1: the no confidence vote would quote make everything more severe

142
00:07:36,360 --> 00:07:40,119
Speaker 1: and harder coming up, the fiscal and political problems France

143
00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:52,360
Speaker 1: is facing and what's likely to happen next. France's government

144
00:07:52,400 --> 00:07:55,720
Speaker 1: has lost a no confidence vote, the first one in decades.

145
00:07:56,080 --> 00:07:58,360
Speaker 1: I called up Bloomberg Stephen Carroll and asked him to

146
00:07:58,400 --> 00:08:01,640
Speaker 1: explain how we got here and what this outcome means.

147
00:08:02,240 --> 00:08:04,520
Speaker 1: What kicked all this off was that decision by Prime

148
00:08:04,560 --> 00:08:07,680
Speaker 1: Minister Michelle Barnier to push through a budget for twenty

149
00:08:07,760 --> 00:08:11,400
Speaker 1: twenty five without parliamentary support. That is what led to

150
00:08:11,400 --> 00:08:15,560
Speaker 1: Wednesday's vote. What made this budget, the budget Michelle Barnier

151
00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:17,880
Speaker 1: pushed through parliament so unpopular, so.

152
00:08:17,840 --> 00:08:19,920
Speaker 2: It wasn't an easy task to begin with. There were

153
00:08:19,960 --> 00:08:22,640
Speaker 2: lots of individually unpopular measures in this to do with

154
00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:26,600
Speaker 2: the reimbursement of medical costs provided by the state. Currently,

155
00:08:26,840 --> 00:08:30,600
Speaker 2: and most controversially, was this idea of pensions. In France,

156
00:08:30,640 --> 00:08:33,520
Speaker 2: state pensions go up every year in line with inflation,

157
00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:35,600
Speaker 2: and one of the things Michelle Barnier tried to do

158
00:08:35,679 --> 00:08:39,559
Speaker 2: to save money was delay that increase for pensioners that

159
00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:41,760
Speaker 2: would have been due to come into force from the

160
00:08:41,800 --> 00:08:45,240
Speaker 2: first of January until later in the year. Essentially just

161
00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:48,200
Speaker 2: trying to save a bit of money by implementing that

162
00:08:48,320 --> 00:08:51,000
Speaker 2: increase a bit later on, and that was one of

163
00:08:51,040 --> 00:08:54,839
Speaker 2: the red lines that Marie Lapenn had in her negotiations

164
00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:58,440
Speaker 2: with Michelle Barnier running up to this particular crisis point,

165
00:08:58,920 --> 00:09:00,679
Speaker 2: and that's proved to be one of the most controversial

166
00:09:00,720 --> 00:09:02,080
Speaker 2: measures that he was trying to pass.

167
00:09:02,520 --> 00:09:05,120
Speaker 1: On the heels of this no confidence vote, President Macron

168
00:09:05,200 --> 00:09:08,320
Speaker 1: can't call for another special election until next summer. What

169
00:09:08,480 --> 00:09:10,600
Speaker 1: is likely to happen next here there.

170
00:09:10,440 --> 00:09:12,800
Speaker 2: Are a couple of deadlines that we have to worry about.

171
00:09:13,080 --> 00:09:15,800
Speaker 2: One of them is that the budget needs to be

172
00:09:15,880 --> 00:09:17,680
Speaker 2: passed by the end of the year. Now, there isn't

173
00:09:17,720 --> 00:09:20,439
Speaker 2: a US style government shutdown on the cards for France,

174
00:09:20,559 --> 00:09:24,360
Speaker 2: but it does enter relatively untested territory where there is

175
00:09:24,400 --> 00:09:28,680
Speaker 2: an emergency provision which allows taxes to be collected, minimum

176
00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:33,040
Speaker 2: services to be provided, welfare benefits to be paid, for example,

177
00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:35,640
Speaker 2: but will make things very difficult in the running of

178
00:09:35,679 --> 00:09:39,000
Speaker 2: the country because it's essentially just maintaining the nature and

179
00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:41,600
Speaker 2: the business of the state without being able to make

180
00:09:41,640 --> 00:09:42,959
Speaker 2: any strategic decisions.

181
00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:45,800
Speaker 1: Stephen says the outcome of the no confidence vote has

182
00:09:45,840 --> 00:09:48,480
Speaker 1: also raised questions about what's next for the far right

183
00:09:48,559 --> 00:09:51,040
Speaker 1: leader Marine la Penn and the National Rally party.

184
00:09:51,520 --> 00:09:54,560
Speaker 2: She's been building her political capital in France, you know,

185
00:09:54,600 --> 00:09:57,640
Speaker 2: for more than ten years, essentially trying to make a

186
00:09:57,640 --> 00:10:01,920
Speaker 2: bid for the presidency. She came pretty close last time around. Now,

187
00:10:01,920 --> 00:10:06,120
Speaker 2: Emmanuel Macroon's term runs until twenty twenty seven. He's shown

188
00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:10,880
Speaker 2: no signs that he will resign early. Marie Leapen herself

189
00:10:11,080 --> 00:10:13,480
Speaker 2: is facing a court decision that's due to come in

190
00:10:13,520 --> 00:10:16,520
Speaker 2: March of next year, which could see her barred from

191
00:10:16,640 --> 00:10:18,559
Speaker 2: running in future elections.

192
00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:21,760
Speaker 1: Lapen and National Rally have been accused of embezzlement, of

193
00:10:21,840 --> 00:10:25,840
Speaker 1: misappropriating funds from the European Union. She denies all wrongdoing,

194
00:10:26,280 --> 00:10:29,040
Speaker 1: but prosecutors have asked a judge to ban Leapen from

195
00:10:29,120 --> 00:10:31,240
Speaker 1: holding public office for five years.

196
00:10:31,760 --> 00:10:34,960
Speaker 2: That's something that could be preying on her mind, is

197
00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:37,959
Speaker 2: if she's trying to force Emmanuel Macron to call an

198
00:10:37,960 --> 00:10:42,080
Speaker 2: early presidential election, something that he can still do. Looks

199
00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:45,360
Speaker 2: very unlikely at this point, but that's one theory that's

200
00:10:45,400 --> 00:10:49,440
Speaker 2: being bandied around by French political commentators that perhaps Marie

201
00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:51,679
Speaker 2: Lapenne has decided to cash in the chips of her

202
00:10:51,679 --> 00:10:55,280
Speaker 2: political capital and try and force Emmanuel Macron into an

203
00:10:55,280 --> 00:10:57,280
Speaker 2: impossible situation, Steven, As you.

204
00:10:57,280 --> 00:11:00,560
Speaker 1: Say, Macron is resisting any calls to resign early. What

205
00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:02,520
Speaker 1: does this mean for him and for his party?

206
00:11:02,679 --> 00:11:05,079
Speaker 2: It puts them in a very difficult position. There are

207
00:11:05,120 --> 00:11:07,560
Speaker 2: a number of figures who are lining up to try

208
00:11:07,559 --> 00:11:12,480
Speaker 2: and replace Emmanuel Macron as the presidential candidate for his

209
00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:15,400
Speaker 2: party in twenty twenty seven, because he'll have served his

210
00:11:15,840 --> 00:11:19,959
Speaker 2: maximum number of terms as president, but it's very difficult

211
00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:23,640
Speaker 2: to see who their constituency will be by that time.

212
00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:30,160
Speaker 2: This budget crisis has reminded voters and politicians that there

213
00:11:30,200 --> 00:11:33,720
Speaker 2: are other parties out there. There are other political forces

214
00:11:33,760 --> 00:11:38,040
Speaker 2: at play, and for now they look more powerful. So

215
00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:41,320
Speaker 2: how a government can proceed between now and twenty twenty

216
00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:45,520
Speaker 2: seven is very unclear. What can they do? What compromises

217
00:11:45,559 --> 00:11:48,920
Speaker 2: would that government have to make with Mary Lapenn's party

218
00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:52,040
Speaker 2: or with the left wing parties to try and pass

219
00:11:52,040 --> 00:11:54,520
Speaker 2: a budget and continuing even minimum functioning.

220
00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:58,120
Speaker 1: One possibility, Stephen says is that the next prime minister

221
00:11:58,240 --> 00:12:01,280
Speaker 1: could choose to build an alliance with the Socialist Party.

222
00:12:01,640 --> 00:12:03,480
Speaker 2: They picked up a lot of seats in the last

223
00:12:03,480 --> 00:12:06,120
Speaker 2: election and they represent one of the biggest parts of

224
00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:09,120
Speaker 2: this left wing alliance. The difficulty will be trying to

225
00:12:09,160 --> 00:12:13,480
Speaker 2: convince them to separate themselves from the hard left parties

226
00:12:13,840 --> 00:12:17,480
Speaker 2: and potentially sign their own political death sentence by going

227
00:12:17,480 --> 00:12:21,000
Speaker 2: into power with the Centrists and the center right. There'll

228
00:12:21,040 --> 00:12:23,679
Speaker 2: be many people in that party who would be wary

229
00:12:23,760 --> 00:12:26,640
Speaker 2: of this as an option, but looking at the numbers,

230
00:12:27,160 --> 00:12:30,600
Speaker 2: really it does seem like the most likely option if

231
00:12:30,679 --> 00:12:32,920
Speaker 2: you were to try and build a coalition. Of course,

232
00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:35,560
Speaker 2: plenty of convincing to be done there. But even in

233
00:12:35,600 --> 00:12:39,720
Speaker 2: the rhetoric that we heard from lawmakers from Macron's party

234
00:12:39,760 --> 00:12:42,240
Speaker 2: in the days running up to this no confidence vote,

235
00:12:42,320 --> 00:12:46,560
Speaker 2: they mention over and over again the stalwart reputation of

236
00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:50,160
Speaker 2: the Socialist Party in French politics and their long history

237
00:12:50,200 --> 00:12:53,160
Speaker 2: of government. They're trying to appeal to them to peel

238
00:12:53,200 --> 00:12:56,120
Speaker 2: away from that left wing alliance and join into something

239
00:12:56,120 --> 00:12:59,360
Speaker 2: that could form a functional government. For the moment, that's

240
00:12:59,400 --> 00:13:03,240
Speaker 2: the only option that looks possible without some major political

241
00:13:03,280 --> 00:13:04,800
Speaker 2: shifts from the parties involved.

242
00:13:05,160 --> 00:13:08,760
Speaker 1: We've talked about what this means for politicians and political parties,

243
00:13:08,800 --> 00:13:10,599
Speaker 1: how about for the country itself.

244
00:13:10,920 --> 00:13:14,360
Speaker 2: People in France are worried about, like everywhere else, the

245
00:13:14,400 --> 00:13:18,320
Speaker 2: cost of living and public services. There's very little hope

246
00:13:18,320 --> 00:13:22,200
Speaker 2: out there that this impasse, however it is resolved, will

247
00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:26,400
Speaker 2: actually lead to people's needs being addressed, their wants being

248
00:13:26,440 --> 00:13:30,600
Speaker 2: addressed by the next government. It's very difficult to try

249
00:13:30,640 --> 00:13:34,880
Speaker 2: and see how someone, any political figure could inspire the

250
00:13:34,920 --> 00:13:38,240
Speaker 2: sort of hope that Emmanuel Macron did when he arrived,

251
00:13:38,720 --> 00:13:42,320
Speaker 2: you know, into the presidential race late in twenty seventeen.

252
00:13:42,679 --> 00:13:46,240
Speaker 2: That sort of uniting figure hasn't been found really by

253
00:13:46,280 --> 00:13:50,480
Speaker 2: any party in recent elections. Marie Lapenn has a large

254
00:13:50,520 --> 00:13:53,559
Speaker 2: constituency on the right, Jean Luke Manlauchamp has a large

255
00:13:53,559 --> 00:13:56,320
Speaker 2: constituency on the far left, but neither have been quite

256
00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:59,520
Speaker 2: big enough to either break through and make it to

257
00:13:59,559 --> 00:14:02,960
Speaker 2: the presidentency or to be able to form a sufficient

258
00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:06,760
Speaker 2: number of alliances in Parliament to become a prime minister.

259
00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:10,520
Speaker 2: This leads to an interesting question about who will own

260
00:14:10,600 --> 00:14:13,880
Speaker 2: the center by the end of this political cycle. There

261
00:14:13,880 --> 00:14:16,439
Speaker 2: are plenty of players out there, but there's still a

262
00:14:16,520 --> 00:14:19,840
Speaker 2: lot of questions about how anyone can win over and

263
00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:23,320
Speaker 2: address the concerns that French people have about their future

264
00:14:23,720 --> 00:14:25,720
Speaker 2: in a more uncertain world.

265
00:14:28,000 --> 00:14:30,560
Speaker 1: This is the big take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gura.

266
00:14:30,960 --> 00:14:34,000
Speaker 1: This episode was produced by David Fox. It was edited

267
00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:37,120
Speaker 1: by Tracy Sanielson and Ergol O'Brien. It was fact checked

268
00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:40,560
Speaker 1: by Adriana Tapia and mixed and sound designed by Alex Sagura.

269
00:14:41,160 --> 00:14:44,160
Speaker 1: Our senior producer is Naomi Shaven. Our senior editor is

270
00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:48,080
Speaker 1: Elizabeth Ponso. Our executive producer is Nicole Beemster. Bor Sage

271
00:14:48,080 --> 00:14:51,520
Speaker 1: Bauman is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. If you like this episode,

272
00:14:51,560 --> 00:14:53,680
Speaker 1: make sure to subscribe and review The Big Take wherever

273
00:14:53,680 --> 00:14:56,240
Speaker 1: you listen to podcasts. It helps people find the show.

274
00:14:56,720 --> 00:14:58,600
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.

275
00:15:00,200 --> 00:15:04,600
Speaker 2: Can you see