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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: PA All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Fifteen, twenty twenty five, starting thirty five forty forty five

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Speaker 3: fifty and the kick is Brock College Football World Stunners.

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Speaker 2: Oh my goodness.

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Speaker 3: He stumble and bumble the latter of turn a tyr

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Speaker 3: on the.

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Speaker 2: Episode J the lad a Table Off the Field the night.

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Speaker 2: It's not the size of the dog in the fight,

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Speaker 2: it's the size of the fight in the all. What's

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Speaker 2: up the general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets on

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Speaker 2: Campus Podcast presented by DraftKings. This is the Week nine

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Speaker 2: college football betting preview. I'm stuck in joining me as

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Speaker 2: always my fellow BBOC co ho Colin Wilson. A lot

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Speaker 2: to get to today, No real true marquee games. We're

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Speaker 2: just gonna go through a ton of games in a

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Speaker 2: long rundown. We'll get to our favorite dogs, our favorite favorites,

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Speaker 2: Friday Night Lights, all the good stuff, some trash.

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Speaker 3: Can I get something out of the way before we

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Speaker 3: get started? Yeah? What the hell's up with Delaware? So?

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Speaker 3: I had the team total over thirty one and a half.

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Speaker 3: They completely stop at thirty one. Bad be right? And

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Speaker 3: we had this problem with Notre Dame, and we had

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Speaker 3: this problem with Tennessee last week. I get it. We're

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Speaker 3: getting pretty chopped on these overs. And then I started

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Speaker 3: getting all these tweets about how Delaware needs to be

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Speaker 3: under investigation because this has been happening for weeks, about

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Speaker 3: how the coach will get to like twenty eight. There

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Speaker 3: was a someone had a team total over twenty four

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Speaker 3: and a half. They stopped at twenty four. Like, I'm serious,

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Speaker 3: I don't know what's going on with Delaware. It's your

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Speaker 3: old neck of the woods, but they're on investigation.

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Speaker 2: Watch get that way, who was on investigation? It's been

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Speaker 2: a I've had. If I have a team of bumbles

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Speaker 2: hit the one another time, I'm gonna lose it. But

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Speaker 2: I went back and watched the Auburn Georgia game last night.

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Speaker 2: After the ref the head reff that game got suspended permanently.

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Speaker 2: That's how bad it was. There are eleven complaints, nine

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Speaker 2: of them were verified, only eleven. Yeah, that seems short,

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Speaker 2: and of course it ends. I forgot Gunner's stocking us

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Speaker 2: to run it in instead of taking a knee. That

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Speaker 2: was one of the worst beats I can ever remember.

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Speaker 2: And uh yeah, the ref gets suspended. I don't get

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Speaker 2: any of my money back that I lost in that game.

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Speaker 2: So hopefully the tide is turning. We're gonna get some

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Speaker 2: manifesting it. We're gonna get some fumbles at the one

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Speaker 2: manifesting manifest I'm saying it out loud. Positive vibes this weekend.

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Speaker 2: I think we're going to fill up this board this week.

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Speaker 2: I think there's a lot we agree on and a

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Speaker 2: lot we disagree on. All Right, before we dive into

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Speaker 2: these games, couple quick public service announcements. If you use Twitter,

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Speaker 2: to build, So check out out playbook. Also, I'm the

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Speaker 2: new co host of the Favorites podcast, which is return

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Speaker 2: of the new lineup with myself Kendrick Middleton and Brandan

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Speaker 2: Kravitz episodes Tuesday, Thursdays and Sundays. That's stories, all sorts

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Speaker 2: of fun stuff. Check it out where you get your

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Speaker 2: podcast NFL Centric. I went through basically like every game today,

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Speaker 2: share some stories, funny story about the time I was

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Speaker 2: most scared in my life, which is a pretty good story.

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Speaker 2: And the Action Network podcast Myself Chris Raybond that comes

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Speaker 2: out the day before this. The Big Best on Campus

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Speaker 2: podcast is sponsored by DraftKings sportsbook and in partnership with

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Speaker 2: If your first bet wins, the crown is yours, all right,

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Speaker 2: let's hit a bunch of these games here. Let's start

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Speaker 2: in the SEC. Vanderbilt Missouri Vanderbilt two and a half

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Speaker 2: point favorites total fifty three and a half. A tough spot,

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Speaker 2: I would say for Missouri. They're coming off that Bama game.

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Speaker 2: They overtime win over Auburn again, they probably should have lost.

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Speaker 2: Now you're on the road again against Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt did

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Speaker 2: have a good win over Lsue they had to buy

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Speaker 2: the week before. I think situationally favors Vanderbilt a bit.

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Speaker 2: I think I saw you bet Missouri. Ye, we can

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Speaker 2: go ahead to head if you want. I haven't bet

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Speaker 2: Vanderbilt yet. What I think the difference in this game

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Speaker 2: is Number one, it's Diego, Diego. You keep going to

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Speaker 2: fade Diego, just Vandy. All they do is cash at

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Speaker 2: home game day here, they're going to be hyped. But

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Speaker 2: the Vanderbilt run defense is much better than their past defense.

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Speaker 2: Missouri wants to run the ball. I think Vanderbilt can

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Speaker 2: get enough stops, and I don't trust the Missouri secondary,

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Speaker 2: and I think Diego buying time find holes in that zone.

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Speaker 2: On the back end, I think rolling with tell me

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Speaker 2: why you like Missouri, do you want to go ahead

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Speaker 2: to d here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, let's go ahead to edit a two and a half.

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Speaker 3: I mean that's what it is painted across the board.

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Speaker 3: And trust me, in a game like this, every half

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Speaker 3: point's gonna matter. I think this game of pick, and

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Speaker 3: I think you're paying at tax on the fact that

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Speaker 3: Missouri just wanted Auburn shouldn't have from a postgame win expectancy.

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Speaker 3: So I think you're paying at tax because of the spot,

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Speaker 3: because of the double travel. So I'll take the points

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Speaker 3: and I'll gobble them up. And by the way, huge

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Speaker 3: special teams advantage for you too. I mean, Vanderbilt's third

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Speaker 3: and SPPLUS special teams Missouri is one hundred and nineteenth,

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Speaker 3: So there's a lot of advantages for Vanderbilt here. But

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Speaker 3: really this comes down to one thing. Can the Missouri defense,

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Speaker 3: which showed up against Auburn at the line of scrimmage,

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Speaker 3: can they stop Vandy's multi run concept with Cedric Alexander

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Speaker 3: and this circus heroics the diego Pavia is having in

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Speaker 3: these passing downs. And the answer to me is yes,

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Speaker 3: Like Corey Batun's defense hammered Pavia in passing downs in

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Speaker 3: last year's game. The Missouri defense is excellent against man

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Speaker 3: blocking offensive lines and has limited explosives against counter That's

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Speaker 3: all Pavia and Alexander is counter man block. And then

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Speaker 3: you know Missouri's nineteenth and pff tackling not many yards

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Speaker 3: after contact for Pavey and Alexander if you look into

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Speaker 3: their numbers, so Missouri is you know, one of the

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Speaker 3: best teams top twenty in tackling, and they're good against

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Speaker 3: the concepts that Vandy runs. And if I just look

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Speaker 3: in the trench numbers alone, I think they're going to

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Speaker 3: have some success at least meeting them at the line

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Speaker 3: of scrimmage. And because of their tackling and people stepping up,

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Speaker 3: I like Missouri's defensive set up here against Vanderbilt's offense. Now,

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Speaker 3: can the Vandy defense stop on Mount Hardy? Is Hardy

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Speaker 3: not hearing these whispers and the shit on TV that

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Speaker 3: I'm hearing about. Where's he gone? He's disappeared for two games.

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Speaker 3: Where has he been so Hardy in the outside zone?

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Speaker 3: You know, listen, is there been a dip in the

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Speaker 3: defensive numbers here for Vanderbilt? I mean you mentioned they're

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Speaker 3: not very good against the past, but against the rush,

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Speaker 3: their sixty second defensive rushing success rate, and there's kind

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Speaker 3: of been a dip with this play calling going from

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Speaker 3: Clark leed is Steve Gregory. This year, Vandy's below national

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Speaker 3: average and success right against outside zone. That's what Hardy is.

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Speaker 3: Hardy's puer outside zone. The Commodorees are vulnerable against the past.

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Speaker 3: So if it does get to Perbula, Missouri with Pabula

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Speaker 3: and Hardy are second nationally and passing down success rate,

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Speaker 3: which shocks me because I just didn't put any stock

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Speaker 3: in Perbula being a factor into this game, but their

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Speaker 3: second passing down success rate and Vandy's defense is outside

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Speaker 3: the top one hundred and success ring EPA in passing down,

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Speaker 3: So that makes me a little bit nervous for them.

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Speaker 3: And then overall for the season, Vandy's defense is seventieth

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Speaker 3: or worse in quality drives and defensive finishing drives. Missouri's

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Speaker 3: gonna be able to move the ball here. I think

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Speaker 3: I'm on Hardy's heard whispers. Outside zone is conducive against

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Speaker 3: the Vandy defense, and I think Missouri's defense, who showed

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Speaker 3: up against Auburn, I think they do enough here. I

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Speaker 3: will take the points again, I make it a pick.

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Speaker 3: I think you're getting two and a half points because

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Speaker 3: of the spot. But Missouri's healthy, they're not hurt, and

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Speaker 3: they're not struggling, so I'll take the points.

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Speaker 2: Don't over complicate it, trust in Diego. I mean, look

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Speaker 2: Missouri's passing success where it looks good. I mean they

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Speaker 2: played it. Their schedule has been pretty easy, they played

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Speaker 2: nothing but home games until last week against Auburn, and

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Speaker 2: they looked down. They only had but ten points until.

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Speaker 3: They weren't about fifty percent post game win expectancy too,

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Speaker 3: So you're right, I mean, you're right.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean their dad of roughaces to drive to

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Speaker 2: get the seventeen to tie the game. And yeah, you

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Speaker 2: mentioned the kicker issues, their special team issues. I don't

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Speaker 2: after watching that Alabama game, I don't trust for Bula

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Speaker 2: in passing downs against teams that can generate a bit

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Speaker 2: of pressure. I think, Andandy gets it done. This is

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Speaker 2: an elimination game. Yeah for the college twell playoff.

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Speaker 3: Alabama look after this game though, like they've beaten both

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Speaker 3: these teams and one of these teams is gonna be

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Speaker 3: one loss and highly right, like Alabama's gonna look so

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Speaker 3: good after this if they survived.

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Speaker 2: Well. Speaking of Alabama, let's get to Alabama. South Carolina.

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Speaker 2: South Carolina twelve dish point underdog, one of my favorite

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Speaker 2: bets the weekend. South Carolina.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you're gonna make me do this. Put it on

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Speaker 3: the board.

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Speaker 2: You want to go ahead to head again?

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Speaker 3: No, no, no, put it on board for agree. This is

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Speaker 3: too high and I just can't do it. I don't

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Speaker 3: know the.

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Speaker 2: Balls, all right, So first of all, the right putting

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Speaker 2: on the board. Yeah, I mean I'm around ten raw number, yep.

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Speaker 2: And that's before accounting for the spot. So Albama has

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Speaker 2: just won four straight games over four ranked components. First

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Speaker 2: SEC ever to do that, first SEC team to ever

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Speaker 2: do that, and they did it in four straight weeks.

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Speaker 2: There's no break. Fifth fifth straight game. Now on the

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Speaker 2: road in Colombia. Sleepy spot. I early, I like afternoon kick.

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Speaker 2: I think they come out flat here. And that's what

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Speaker 2: this has been. Dubores, bugaboo. He's lost four straight games

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Speaker 2: away from home as a double digit favorite. You go

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Speaker 2: back to Vandy, you go back to Florida State earlier

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Speaker 2: this year, Michigan. Hey, this has happened zero to four

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Speaker 2: against the spread, past two years away from home, is

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Speaker 2: a double digit favorite. This is South Carolina's super Bowl

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Speaker 2: and it don't start's going to play. They're good defensive lineman.

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Speaker 2: Looks like most of the guys who got banged up

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Speaker 2: last week will play, so they should be relatively healthy here.

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Speaker 2: Their defense is playing much better than I expected them

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Speaker 2: to this year after they lost all that talent. But

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Speaker 2: the key for me is Alabama is not generating elite pressure.

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Speaker 2: This is not an elite defensive front. You can run

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Speaker 2: on them as well, so South klin might actually have

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Speaker 2: a run game when Oh, to me, South Carolina is

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Speaker 2: sort of like the Texans in the NFL. Their offensive

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Speaker 2: line is so inept that if they go up against

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Speaker 2: a ferocious front they can't do anything. That's what happened

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Speaker 2: against Oklahoma last week. That won't be the case with Alabama.

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Speaker 2: I think Sellers will have time. Sellers can use his legs,

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Speaker 2: and I think South Carolina can hang in here. I

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Speaker 2: think the lines too. I think the spot is glorious.

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Speaker 2: And for what it's worth, Shane Biemer past two years

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Speaker 2: five and zero against the spread against top ten teams,

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Speaker 2: covering by twenty five points per game. Twenty five that's

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Speaker 2: that's stuny, excuse me, top ten teams. So he's been

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Speaker 2: very good at getting his teams up for this. This

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Speaker 2: is basically they're super Bowls. They're not going to live

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Speaker 2: up to any of their preseason expectations. One last Tarrah

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Speaker 2: effort here from Sellers in Company. I think I think

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Speaker 2: South kind is going to put a scare into Alabama.

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Speaker 4: You agree, and it takes some convincing. When you look

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Speaker 4: at South Carolina's overall season numbers, they're gross. They're disgusting.

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Speaker 4: Every single offensive metric in the red, finishing, drive, success,

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Speaker 4: straight pass, it doesn't matter.

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Speaker 3: They're all bad. And so I think the answer is

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Speaker 3: how I think this is one thing you need to

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Speaker 3: learn about handicapping. If you're new to this, if you're

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Speaker 3: kind of new to it, make a case for both sides, right,

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Speaker 3: don't fall in love with one team all the time.

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Speaker 3: Try to make a case for the other side. So

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Speaker 3: let's make a case for South Carolina. The answer is

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Speaker 3: seller strategy. From last year, BAMA only had three quarterback

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Speaker 3: hurries in that game, and now right now k Womex

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Speaker 3: defense ranks a hundred and twentieth and pass rush they're

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Speaker 3: not going to get any pressure on sellers, which is

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Speaker 3: going to allow him to do whatever it is he wants

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Speaker 3: to do. You know, Bama's upgraded and tackling. They're twenty

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Speaker 3: fifth per PFF and they're much better against the pass

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Speaker 3: than they are against the run. They're one hundred and

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Speaker 3: twenty third in rush EPA allowed. It's going to be

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Speaker 3: some There's gonna be some runs here by Leonora's sellers.

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Speaker 3: Now you think about their.

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Speaker 2: Backs might even be able to get going like that

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Speaker 2: just wasn't never going to be a thing against you know,

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Speaker 2: the fronts of LSU, the front, the front of Oklahoma.

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Speaker 2: They can have some balance here and sellers can have

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Speaker 2: some time to throw. And by the way, you mentioned

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Speaker 2: that game last year they lost by two. Yeah, they

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Speaker 2: should have won that game ultimately kept them out of

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Speaker 2: the College twelve plow. You better believe that they're going

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Speaker 2: to show up for this game.

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Speaker 3: Well so I think also you need to look at

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Speaker 3: the quarterbacks that have faced Alabama so far. Tommy Castelono

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Speaker 3: was seventy eight yards in a TV. Stockton only in

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Speaker 3: twenty two yards, but Chauncey Bwones went for one nineteen

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Speaker 3: Diego Pavia fifty eight yards on the ground Perbulah sixty

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Speaker 3: one in a rushing TD. I mean sixty one in

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Speaker 3: a rushing TD from Missouri quarterback. I mean there is

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Speaker 3: a history of chunk plays being created by quarterbacks with

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Speaker 3: their legs, and that's how South Carolina covers this game. Also,

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Speaker 3: Alabama's heading into a bye did.

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Speaker 2: Do they this is super flat spot?

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Speaker 3: Yeah yeah so.

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Speaker 2: And also like Alabama is not a leade elite. They

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Speaker 2: deserve a ton of credit for their four straight wins

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Speaker 2: or ranked opponents. But like, this isn't in Ohio State,

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Speaker 2: and this isn't your older brothers, Alabama, especially in the

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Speaker 2: trenches like they Tennessee. You get a ninety nine yard

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Speaker 2: pick six. Tennessee's also stopped twice inside the twenty Tennessee

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Speaker 2: al gained Alabama. Zora had the ball late with a

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Speaker 2: chance to win that game. The yardage was dead. Even

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Speaker 2: Georgia drops a pass that would have won the game.

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Speaker 2: Alabama doesn't score in the second half. Vanderbilt two red

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Speaker 2: zone turnovers that game like looked even, and then they

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Speaker 2: had attack on a touchdown to make the margin like

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Speaker 2: they could have easily have one or two more losses

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Speaker 2: across that stretch. Look I think that Bama's going to

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Speaker 2: get a scare here. I mentioned it earlier, but the

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Speaker 2: full numbers for Shane Bieber at South Gunda, He's six

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Speaker 2: and one against spread against top ten opponents eighty six percent,

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Speaker 2: sixteen and a half point average cover margin. He's won

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Speaker 2: three of those seven outright, including two as a more

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Speaker 2: than two touchdown underdogs. Should add another one at Alabama.

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Speaker 2: I like South Carolina anything over eleven eleven.

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Speaker 3: And a half. I mean, you're ten on eight and

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Speaker 3: a half. I just sit there stare at the number.

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Speaker 3: I think it's just a real game. Is a really

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Speaker 3: good lesson of trying to make a case for the

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Speaker 3: other side. It's hard for South Carolina's offensive numbers.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's let's hit Oklahoma. Ole Miss at Oklahoma

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Speaker 2: this is another I think this is another basically elimination game.

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Speaker 2: If you look at Oklahoma schedule, They're not going to

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Speaker 2: win out. I mean they could, but I doubt that

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Speaker 2: they will. It's a huge game for them. Ole Miss

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Speaker 2: could win out, but then like if they lose this

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Speaker 2: game and they're ten and two, I don't even know

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Speaker 2: if they're guaranteed to get in because their best win

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Speaker 2: would be like over LSU at home and who knows

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Speaker 2: where else you's going to be. So I this is

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Speaker 2: a huge game for the college football playoff. Ole Miss

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Speaker 2: is a five and a half point road dog total

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Speaker 2: fifty three and a half. I like Oklahoma here. I

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Speaker 2: just think that you have to Georgia is similar to Alabama.

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Speaker 2: Their defensive front is not elite this year. They're not

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Speaker 2: getting elite pressure. I do not believe in this whole

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Speaker 2: Miss offensive line. I think the Oklahoma defensive front is

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Speaker 2: going to overwhelm them, force Chambliss into some mistakes. The

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Speaker 2: ole Miss defense also doesn't do anything for me. They

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Speaker 2: make you kind of they want to take away explosives,

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Speaker 2: make you methodically drive the ball down the field. Well,

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Speaker 2: that's what Oklahoma certainly can do. The big question. There's

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Speaker 2: two major questions here for me though, because I make

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Speaker 2: this slightly over our touchdown? Oh wow, what's that?

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Speaker 3: You're high? I'm three and a half.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so I have I'm definitely I'm lower than the

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Speaker 2: market on ole Miss. My two major questions though, is

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Speaker 2: ole Miss's run defense is really bad. Oklahoma's run offense

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Speaker 2: is really bad. What wins out there? Because if Oklahoma

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Speaker 2: get their ground game going then I think this is

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Speaker 2: a fairly comfortable win, and I don't think they're gonna

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Speaker 2: blow them out. I'm saying like five ten tennis points.

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Speaker 2: The other is, I do believe the Oklahoma defense is

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Speaker 2: one of the best in the country. They're well schemed,

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Speaker 2: they're well connected, their defensive front is one of the

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Speaker 2: best in the nation. The secondary, the corner group. That's

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Speaker 2: maybe the one question I have. I really like the

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Speaker 2: one of their freshmen. But everything looks good on paper.

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Speaker 2: You look at the Oklahoma any defensive metric, it's gonna

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Speaker 2: look pristine. But here's who they faced Illinois State, Michigan, Temple, Auburn,

337
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Speaker 2: Kent State, Texas in South Carolina. A lot of bad

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Speaker 2: offensive lines, a lot of inept passing attacks like arch

339
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Speaker 2: Manning Jackson Arnold. Like they haven't really faced an elite

340
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Speaker 2: passing attack. So that Gisney pause. We're going to learn

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Speaker 2: a lot about the Oklahoma secondary ahead of Tennessee Alabama

342
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Speaker 2: coming up in the two games to follow. But my

343
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Speaker 2: numbers like Oklahoma. I think that ultimately this defense overwhelms Trinidad.

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Speaker 3: What say you, I'll just cap onto it that I like

345
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Speaker 3: Oklahoma two. I just have not made a decision whether

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Speaker 3: I'm playing the line or if I'm gonna parlay them

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Speaker 3: with somebody else. I do have full confidence they are

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Speaker 3: going to win this game. The one stat that's throwing

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Speaker 3: me off is that they're sixty second in PFF tackling.

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Speaker 3: You're mentioned all the quarterbacks that they've gone up against.

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Speaker 3: Now we got Trinidad Chambliss. Right, the offense only created

352
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Speaker 3: eight miss tackles against Georgia, but that was the handicap

353
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Speaker 3: last week. It's all I could talk about was that

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Speaker 3: Georgia doesn't miss tackles, well, Oklahoma does. The thing that's

355
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Speaker 3: very interesting about Oklahoma's defense, they're number one nationally in

356
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Speaker 3: rush EPA allowed, So even though they're missing tackles, there's

357
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Speaker 3: eleven hats to the football at all times.

358
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Speaker 2: So yeah, there's so connected.

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Speaker 3: I just since I make it three and a half,

360
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Speaker 3: I've had a hard time pulling the trigger on this

361
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Speaker 3: number that's at five five and a half. I do

362
00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:11,200
Speaker 3: have full confidence, and I mean, look at this look.

363
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Speaker 3: Georgia went on a seventeen to oh run in the

364
00:19:13,840 --> 00:19:16,520
Speaker 3: fourth quarter to win that game. And what happened old

365
00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:20,320
Speaker 3: miss petered out. They were exhausted, They got their brains

366
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Speaker 3: bashed in for three quarters and looked good, couldn't be stopped,

367
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Speaker 3: and then finally in the fourth quarter, Georgia gave it

368
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Speaker 3: to him. And guess what, Oklomba's defense is Beef better

369
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Speaker 3: than Georgia's defense on paper, they're better than anybody. Number

370
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Speaker 3: one a defensive rush EPA number one defense second nationally,

371
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Speaker 3: and defensive quality drives good luck getting past the forty

372
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Speaker 3: yard line. And then their third defensive finishing drives good

373
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Speaker 3: luck against the Sou defense and inside man power. It

374
00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:48,120
Speaker 3: doesn't matter what Old Miss runs. Ou dominates every single

375
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Speaker 3: run concept in the book. So then you have to ask,

376
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Speaker 3: is OU's offense back to one hundred percent with my

377
00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:56,720
Speaker 3: tiers arm eighteen of twenty six against South Carolina, no

378
00:19:56,800 --> 00:19:59,440
Speaker 3: big time throws, two turnover worthy plays, so we can

379
00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:01,399
Speaker 3: hear I'm back, I'm clean, I'm good to go. But

380
00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:03,800
Speaker 3: you didn't have a big time throw and you had

381
00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:06,800
Speaker 3: two turnover worthy plays. But you know, the great news

382
00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:09,440
Speaker 3: is that Old Miss is horrific against inside zone. That's

383
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Speaker 3: what OU runs with Sawchuk rebels are forty three percent

384
00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:14,280
Speaker 3: success right against that, they're one hundred and fourteenth and

385
00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:16,840
Speaker 3: rush EPA allowed. So I think the answer to where

386
00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:19,359
Speaker 3: you started stuck is yes. I think o US ground

387
00:20:19,359 --> 00:20:21,439
Speaker 3: game is going to get it going. So I'm just

388
00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:25,080
Speaker 3: I'm a little nervous about the tackle grading of OU,

389
00:20:25,520 --> 00:20:29,080
Speaker 3: and I think the game goes in Oklahoma's favor the

390
00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:31,639
Speaker 3: longer it goes because Ole Miss will peter out again.

391
00:20:31,760 --> 00:20:33,879
Speaker 3: And I'm wondering if a live option is better. But

392
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Speaker 3: I'm betting this no matter what. In OU's favor. I

393
00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:38,240
Speaker 3: just don't know what number I'm grabbing.

394
00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:40,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, it might be a good moneyline paraly piece.

395
00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:43,119
Speaker 2: I was thinking that as well. Also will be a

396
00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:45,679
Speaker 2: live target of mind. If Lane is in this bag

397
00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:48,159
Speaker 2: early and they get a lead, yep, definitely we'll be

398
00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:54,040
Speaker 2: looking to back Oklahoma. Look big group of five matchups

399
00:20:54,080 --> 00:21:00,880
Speaker 2: South Florida at Memphis. This is again that it kind

400
00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:03,159
Speaker 2: of lost some of its luster after Memphis lost to

401
00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:08,880
Speaker 2: UAB last week, but it is huge for USFS. It's

402
00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:12,000
Speaker 2: huge for both teams American chances. I can't see Memphis

403
00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:14,119
Speaker 2: getting to the College will. I don't know what if

404
00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:17,840
Speaker 2: Memphis runs the table and wins the American but they

405
00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:21,160
Speaker 2: have a loss to UAB this like that that would

406
00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:23,640
Speaker 2: open up things, but they are five and a half

407
00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:26,200
Speaker 2: point home underdog here total fifty nine and a half.

408
00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:30,480
Speaker 2: The reason for that is it looks like Brendan Lewis

409
00:21:30,560 --> 00:21:31,480
Speaker 2: is going to be out.

410
00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:37,840
Speaker 3: The only explanation for this line, Yeah, I means yeah.

411
00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:40,719
Speaker 2: I'm almost positive that he's out, although it's not confirmed.

412
00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:44,439
Speaker 2: So that means that Ryan Silverfield is going to have

413
00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:48,280
Speaker 2: to go with probably AJ Hill, but Arrington Maiden is

414
00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:49,119
Speaker 2: also in the mix.

415
00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:50,920
Speaker 1: A J.

416
00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:52,600
Speaker 3: Hill doesn't run, he has to be.

417
00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:56,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, ones of redshirt freshman. The other was a true freshman.

418
00:21:56,720 --> 00:21:59,960
Speaker 2: Both highly talented, but not the same type of play

419
00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:04,640
Speaker 2: is Brendan Lewis. I don't know, Like, I just don't

420
00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:06,679
Speaker 2: know what you're gonna get from these quarterbacks. This has

421
00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:09,919
Speaker 2: been adjusted in the market for the loss of Lewis.

422
00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:11,760
Speaker 2: I don't know what to do with this. This is

423
00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:13,160
Speaker 2: a pass for me. Do you have anything here?

424
00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:13,439
Speaker 1: Well?

425
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:15,520
Speaker 3: I think so this is completely Lewis base. Because the

426
00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:17,879
Speaker 3: look aheadline was Memphis minus three. We talked about this

427
00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:20,040
Speaker 3: last week, like Memphis minus three was the look ahead.

428
00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:23,040
Speaker 3: So to get all the way to six, I mean

429
00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:26,760
Speaker 3: a nine point swing, And is Brendan Lewis that important? Yes,

430
00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:28,400
Speaker 3: because of the offense that they run.

431
00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:31,800
Speaker 2: It's Memphis not downgraded for losing to UAB.

432
00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:35,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, yeah, but I mean the inside zonery that

433
00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:38,880
Speaker 3: they run with Sutton Smith and Greg Desergiers Junior. I mean,

434
00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:41,200
Speaker 3: if Lewis doesn't play, Memphis has no chance to keep

435
00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:42,879
Speaker 3: up because they don't have a quarterback to run that

436
00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:44,760
Speaker 3: with those two guys, and they don't turn around hand

437
00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:47,720
Speaker 3: the ball off in power or man blocking schemes. So

438
00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:51,720
Speaker 3: you know, is Lewis worth nine points? The market is

439
00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:54,640
Speaker 3: saying yes, I think it's gonna move even farther if

440
00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:57,040
Speaker 3: he does get announced out. Now, there's this really interesting

441
00:22:57,400 --> 00:23:00,520
Speaker 3: clip of Silverfield after the game saying, yeah, Lewis could

442
00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:01,879
Speaker 3: have came back in if I needed him, but I

443
00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:04,040
Speaker 3: thought A. J. Hill was fine and could have taken

444
00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:06,200
Speaker 3: the rest of the game. Like well, then why is

445
00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:08,560
Speaker 3: he on crutches and why are we dated? I don't know.

446
00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:11,560
Speaker 3: So that's the whole thing, is this one. We're recording

447
00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:13,360
Speaker 3: this on Thursday afternoon. This is a sit and wait

448
00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:17,159
Speaker 3: because if Silverfield's just like, oh, you have an injury,

449
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:18,520
Speaker 3: I'm going to put you over here and call you

450
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:21,040
Speaker 3: day to day and questionable. But on the side. I

451
00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:23,399
Speaker 3: heard him say directly after the game. Lewis could have

452
00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:26,240
Speaker 3: came back into the game, like if he's playing this,

453
00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 3: this number will crash. So I have nothing to do

454
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:31,600
Speaker 3: with this right now. It's all based on Lewis.

455
00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:34,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean Goala said he's preparing for three quarterbacks,

456
00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:37,359
Speaker 2: for any of the three quarterbacks. For what it's worth,

457
00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:40,920
Speaker 2: Lewis didn't talk to the media yesterday. That's the first

458
00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:43,919
Speaker 2: time all year that he hasn't on Wednesday, so I

459
00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:46,760
Speaker 2: think he's out. Let's go back to the SEC Texas

460
00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:51,240
Speaker 2: A and M at LSU. Texas A and M wins

461
00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:53,800
Speaker 2: this game. I mean there are minus seven hundred to

462
00:23:53,840 --> 00:23:56,840
Speaker 2: make the controa cloff. They're pretty much a lock to

463
00:23:56,880 --> 00:24:00,360
Speaker 2: get there. LSU needs this win to keep their season

464
00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:02,199
Speaker 2: alive headed into the buy and then they'll need to

465
00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:05,280
Speaker 2: get Thebama win. A and M is a two and

466
00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:08,560
Speaker 2: a half point favorer. Total is down to forty eight

467
00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:11,760
Speaker 2: and a half. Death Valley at Night. I'll tell you

468
00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:15,040
Speaker 2: one thing, this major revenge frelis. You remember last last

469
00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:19,520
Speaker 2: year they got gott in the second half because they

470
00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:22,080
Speaker 2: put in tex Am, put in Marcel Reed and Nellisy

471
00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:23,920
Speaker 2: was not prepared for it and to change the whole game.

472
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:27,840
Speaker 2: This no like so I'm I'm in love with tex

473
00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:30,400
Speaker 2: am been in love with Texas A and M all year,

474
00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:32,440
Speaker 2: bet them to make the cultural playoffs before the year.

475
00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:37,679
Speaker 3: What's that I have a national title ben fifty to

476
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:40,280
Speaker 3: one from yeah really yeah.

477
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:42,760
Speaker 2: But this number is kind of crazy. So if this

478
00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:50,040
Speaker 2: gets to three, I will click LSU because think about it,

479
00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:53,800
Speaker 2: I this is juice top home field juiced. This is

480
00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:57,600
Speaker 2: like for four and my laptop is dead now I

481
00:24:57,600 --> 00:24:59,000
Speaker 2: don't have my home field, so I think I'll have

482
00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:02,600
Speaker 2: it around like four. All right, So to say that

483
00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:07,960
Speaker 2: A and M is seven plus better than LSU on

484
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:10,600
Speaker 2: a neutral that's kind of aggressive and like this is

485
00:25:10,640 --> 00:25:12,920
Speaker 2: the spot for LSU. It's like there's season on the line.

486
00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:15,679
Speaker 2: A and M's undefeated, right this is this reminds me

487
00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:18,920
Speaker 2: a bit of Arizona State Texas Tech in a way

488
00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:23,479
Speaker 2: where like you're just going to get everything you have

489
00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:25,720
Speaker 2: from LSU, and their defense will probably play way up

490
00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:28,280
Speaker 2: and their defense already is outstanding. But there's a couple

491
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:33,800
Speaker 2: things that worry me. One with weeks is probably out again.

492
00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:39,199
Speaker 2: I think that's big to the left tackle situation. So

493
00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:43,520
Speaker 2: LSU's left tackle went out with an injury last week

494
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:49,679
Speaker 2: against Vanderbilt. They moved DJ Chester to left tackle and

495
00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:54,680
Speaker 2: it was an absolute disaster. I mean DJ Chester was

496
00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:59,200
Speaker 2: a bad center and now they have him at left

497
00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:01,639
Speaker 2: tackle because Kelly doesn't want to play a true freshman.

498
00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:04,640
Speaker 2: He wants the experienced guy Chester going up against Cash

499
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:09,240
Speaker 2: as how that could ruin this game completely. So that

500
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:12,000
Speaker 2: is might keep me off even if it got to three.

501
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:13,639
Speaker 2: I mean, I think I numbers wise, I have to

502
00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:16,320
Speaker 2: I would have to click LSU. But the left tackle

503
00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:21,040
Speaker 2: situation for LSU no wit Weeks is big as well,

504
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:25,720
Speaker 2: but the spot is all LSU. I make this like one.

505
00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:30,960
Speaker 2: So at a fuel goal death Valley at night, LSU

506
00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:33,879
Speaker 2: season on the line against undefeated A and M second

507
00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 2: straight road game, I'd have to take the Tigers. But

508
00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:41,400
Speaker 2: the left tackle situation is dire and with that pass

509
00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:43,359
Speaker 2: rush and with LSU not being able to run it

510
00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:48,320
Speaker 2: like the negative plays, the potential turnovers and in addition

511
00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:51,639
Speaker 2: to the loss of Weeks, that's tough for LSU. What

512
00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:52,160
Speaker 2: do you see here?

513
00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:56,080
Speaker 3: You know who else is on LSU, Grammy, the hottest

514
00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:59,159
Speaker 3: out in the industry. I make the game Texas A

515
00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:03,399
Speaker 3: and M minus two. I am admittedly higher than everybody

516
00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:05,800
Speaker 3: else on their pr So still I can't justify the

517
00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:08,320
Speaker 3: two and a half the number that I bet and

518
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:08,720
Speaker 3: rode up.

519
00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:10,159
Speaker 2: I think it's the three. Would you take all us

520
00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:10,520
Speaker 2: here or no?

521
00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:13,640
Speaker 3: I mean, I just got burned with them against Vanderbilt.

522
00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:16,119
Speaker 3: I i'd have to. I mean, just on principle alone,

523
00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:17,480
Speaker 3: I don't think it should be this high, and I've

524
00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:19,320
Speaker 3: got reasons. I've got tons of reasons here right in

525
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:21,320
Speaker 3: front of me about why it shouldn't be this high.

526
00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:24,160
Speaker 3: But I will say this. I bet the total hard

527
00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:27,920
Speaker 3: over forty seven, wrote it up for action, and right

528
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:30,399
Speaker 3: now is you and I are recording this. DK just

529
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:32,200
Speaker 3: popped from forty eight to forty nine and a half.

530
00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:34,760
Speaker 3: So I don't know if somebody else is reading my

531
00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:37,240
Speaker 3: crap and releasing it or what it's on the move.

532
00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:39,639
Speaker 3: I make it fifty three, So if you're listening to

533
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:41,120
Speaker 3: this and just want to get in, I would stop

534
00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:43,879
Speaker 3: at fifty three. Second consecutive road game for Texas A

535
00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:46,800
Speaker 3: and M. They could not put Arkansas away. The Razorbacks

536
00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:49,000
Speaker 3: were eleven point two yards per play in twenty eight

537
00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:51,639
Speaker 3: rushing attempts and thirteen point one yards per play in

538
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:54,680
Speaker 3: twenty one passing downs. This Texas A and M defense

539
00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:57,360
Speaker 3: I got excited about a month ago because they had

540
00:27:57,359 --> 00:27:59,359
Speaker 3: a span of like two games where they allowed like

541
00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:03,200
Speaker 3: eight missed tackles. That's gone twenty five combined miss tackles

542
00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 3: against Arkansas and Florida's offenses. They cannot defend the explosive

543
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:10,240
Speaker 3: rush their one hundred and thirty four defensive rush EPA.

544
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:13,199
Speaker 3: Now the good news is for them as LSU is

545
00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:17,400
Speaker 3: not really good at rushia rush explosives. This is gonna

546
00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:21,000
Speaker 3: be on Nuss's arm again. I mean the mistakes from

547
00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:24,120
Speaker 3: Nuss's Also, you can look at Nuss's numbers. Last year,

548
00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:26,000
Speaker 3: he had a drop rate of six point four percent.

549
00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:28,120
Speaker 3: This year it's nine point four percent. Like the wide

550
00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:30,600
Speaker 3: receivers are not helping him out whatsoever, and he doesn't

551
00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:33,280
Speaker 3: have any rush explosives. But Texas A and M is

552
00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:35,720
Speaker 3: making offenses look much better than they are. So we'll

553
00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:37,840
Speaker 3: see how that goes. Now, the Texas A and M offense,

554
00:28:37,880 --> 00:28:39,800
Speaker 3: there is a prop in here to be played. There's

555
00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:42,360
Speaker 3: absolutely a prop in here to be played. They're now

556
00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:46,760
Speaker 3: second nationally in HAVOC allowed tackles for loss allowed interceptions, fumbles.

557
00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:50,000
Speaker 3: This is a safe offense. And Marcel Reid's fifteen passing touchdowns,

558
00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:52,800
Speaker 3: he has one hundred and ninety five additional scramble yards.

559
00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:54,160
Speaker 3: So if you want to get in on some of that,

560
00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:56,360
Speaker 3: I think maybe you can, But there's a better prop.

561
00:28:57,520 --> 00:29:01,880
Speaker 3: LSU's corners some of their defensive backs. I will fully

562
00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:04,040
Speaker 3: admit how wrong I was in this summer. When Stuck

563
00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:06,320
Speaker 3: came to the podcast, it said, I kind of like, LS,

564
00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:09,200
Speaker 3: what else you did in the portal? Props to Stucky

565
00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:13,880
Speaker 3: because is this Virginia Tech transfer that they have right

566
00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:19,560
Speaker 3: mansort de Laye aj halsis, Yeah, seven PDUs and I

567
00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:22,400
Speaker 3: in T switches they both switch between left and right corner.

568
00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:25,120
Speaker 3: The Texas A and M offense is. You're going to

569
00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:27,400
Speaker 3: have to look and see what Craver and Concepsion do

570
00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:30,440
Speaker 3: because I think there's a massive prop advantage here when

571
00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:33,480
Speaker 3: you look at the route concepts that LSU shuts down.

572
00:29:33,960 --> 00:29:39,160
Speaker 3: LSU dominates teams that use wide receiver screens and slants.

573
00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:42,120
Speaker 3: What does Craver do? He is a wide receiver bubble

574
00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:45,040
Speaker 3: and screen guy. Every single highlight you see of Craver,

575
00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:48,160
Speaker 3: it's a wide receiver screen. Every time you see him

576
00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:51,200
Speaker 3: do a slant across the middle, he is on fire.

577
00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:54,840
Speaker 3: Guess what. LSU absolutely shuts that down because of what

578
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:57,240
Speaker 3: they have in their corner play. What do they not

579
00:29:57,360 --> 00:30:00,640
Speaker 3: shut down? LSU has a thirty six percent success rate

580
00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:04,640
Speaker 3: against teams that use crossing routes. Crossing routes a little

581
00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:06,280
Speaker 3: bit different than a slant. There's a little bit of

582
00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:08,560
Speaker 3: a go before there's a cross and they have somebody

583
00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:11,480
Speaker 3: cross who runs the most crossing routes on Texas A

584
00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:12,960
Speaker 3: and M And yeah, I deep dive the hell out

585
00:30:12,960 --> 00:30:16,560
Speaker 3: of this Casey Conceptsion. If you look at Marcel Reid

586
00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:19,680
Speaker 3: and his highlights to Casey Conceptsion in red zone territory,

587
00:30:19,760 --> 00:30:22,360
Speaker 3: it's always crossing routes. You want to call it a

588
00:30:22,400 --> 00:30:24,840
Speaker 3: pick play, I don't give a shit. That's how Casey

589
00:30:24,880 --> 00:30:29,920
Speaker 3: Conceptsion always scores here. I think you're taking over up

590
00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:33,320
Speaker 3: to fifty three and right now Casey Conceptsi one is

591
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:36,880
Speaker 3: plus one forty for an anytime TD man that side,

592
00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:38,240
Speaker 3: I think it's gonna get to three and I'm gonna

593
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:40,160
Speaker 3: I'm gonna have to have a pop, a drink or something.

594
00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:41,920
Speaker 3: I don't know if getting in on this Tigers team.

595
00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:42,600
Speaker 3: But that's too much.

596
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:45,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna have to take three if and when

597
00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:48,200
Speaker 2: it gets there. Ucla at Indiana, I think this is

598
00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 2: a burial just saying, how do you make.

599
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:54,880
Speaker 3: A case for UCLA? Like, I mean, it's it's hard.

600
00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:58,120
Speaker 2: The honeymoon is over, New Heisel like that. We now

601
00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:00,560
Speaker 2: everyone knows what they're doing, all the different stuff they're doing.

602
00:31:00,800 --> 00:31:02,840
Speaker 2: They did some nice stuff with Nico and his legs,

603
00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:05,080
Speaker 2: but I mean last week he was he was miserable

604
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:08,400
Speaker 2: against Maryland. They had no business winning that game. Indiana

605
00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:12,080
Speaker 2: cares about margin because think about it, twelve and OL.

606
00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:14,320
Speaker 2: If they go twelve and OL and they lose to

607
00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:17,280
Speaker 2: Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship, but they're pummeling everyone,

608
00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:19,440
Speaker 2: they can get a bye. It could be one of

609
00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:20,920
Speaker 2: the fourteenth that gets to buy. Even though they don't

610
00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:23,080
Speaker 2: win the Big n Chimps. Because they changed the format

611
00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:23,560
Speaker 2: this year.

612
00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:25,760
Speaker 3: They cover, they will, right if they face Ohio State

613
00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:26,920
Speaker 3: and cover, they would get a bye.

614
00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 2: Yep, So I think this is a burial city. I

615
00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:31,880
Speaker 2: like Indiana.

616
00:31:32,520 --> 00:31:35,600
Speaker 3: Let me add to this. Signetti and Jonathan Smith are

617
00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:38,400
Speaker 3: field goal kicking each other to cover a freaking four

618
00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 3: score spread. Okay, you can't sit here and tell me

619
00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:44,080
Speaker 3: that Signetti won't know if this doesn't land twenty five,

620
00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:46,880
Speaker 3: twenty six or twenty four and a half, he will.

621
00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 3: But let's look just I love Ucla. I've been on

622
00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:54,680
Speaker 3: him for a few weeks. I'm with stuck as a burial.

623
00:31:54,800 --> 00:31:56,680
Speaker 3: I don't want to touch the number. But at the

624
00:31:56,680 --> 00:31:59,640
Speaker 3: same time, let's do a little diagnosis of what UCLA is.

625
00:32:00,520 --> 00:32:02,320
Speaker 3: Have they done these things three games in a row,

626
00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:07,480
Speaker 3: Maryland Wind six pass explosives, three rush explosives, Michigan State Blowout,

627
00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:12,240
Speaker 3: three pass explosives, eight rush explosives, Penn State seven rush explosives,

628
00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:14,280
Speaker 3: two pass explosives. Let me just put it this way.

629
00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:17,160
Speaker 3: They are all designed on the big play. There is

630
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:19,800
Speaker 3: no success rate. Their yards per play have been around

631
00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:22,520
Speaker 3: five point four. It isn't great. The bottom line is

632
00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:25,920
Speaker 3: Nico's legs and Javian Thomas, jalen Berger, Anthony freees a second.

633
00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:27,680
Speaker 3: It's been a different running back every game, and it's

634
00:32:27,720 --> 00:32:31,960
Speaker 3: all been based on explosives. Indiana has allowed and this

635
00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:34,800
Speaker 3: is shocking to me. They are fourth in the nation.

636
00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:38,560
Speaker 3: They've allowed only fifteen rushing attempts to go over ten yards.

637
00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:41,760
Speaker 3: Fifteen rushing attempts have gone over ten yards the entire season.

638
00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:45,240
Speaker 3: Against Indiana, You're right, Ucla is a burial because they're

639
00:32:45,320 --> 00:32:46,920
Speaker 3: rush explosives that ain't happening here.

640
00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:50,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, Indiana by four plus touchdowns. Now, Texas at Mississippi State,

641
00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:53,920
Speaker 2: going back to the SEC, I guess I was wrong

642
00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:55,080
Speaker 2: on them. What's that?

643
00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:56,920
Speaker 3: I guess I was wrong on this one. On Sunday

644
00:32:56,920 --> 00:32:58,440
Speaker 3: I took Missispis eight six and a half.

645
00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:02,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's total four five and a half. I'm kind

646
00:33:02,720 --> 00:33:04,800
Speaker 2: of close to market after deep diving in. I don't

647
00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:07,320
Speaker 2: like the Missippi State defensive line. The thing I worry

648
00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:08,880
Speaker 2: about is like they're not the type that could like

649
00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:12,480
Speaker 2: dominate this Texas offensive line. So maybe Arch could look

650
00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:14,680
Speaker 2: a little bit more competent, but like, this is a

651
00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:18,320
Speaker 2: Texas team. I would never bet here at laying seven

652
00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:24,200
Speaker 2: and this is what they're fourth straight game away from Austin.

653
00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:27,520
Speaker 2: They had no business beat in Kentucky fifteen percent postgame

654
00:33:27,560 --> 00:33:30,160
Speaker 2: win expect the out game by two hundred yards. Yeah,

655
00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:35,440
Speaker 2: Mississippi State arguably should have beat Florida. Yeah, so yeah,

656
00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:37,959
Speaker 2: I mean the Texas defense is excellent. I think they

657
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:40,959
Speaker 2: do match up pretty well with Mississippi State, but like,

658
00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:43,920
Speaker 2: do you trust this Texas offense to consistently move the

659
00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:47,360
Speaker 2: ball down the field, Not from what I've seen, So

660
00:33:47,560 --> 00:33:49,160
Speaker 2: I mean I could only take the points.

661
00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:53,440
Speaker 3: So yeah, my problem, I hate that. I hate that

662
00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:56,120
Speaker 3: I was wrong in Missisissi State. My problem is Fluff

663
00:33:56,160 --> 00:33:59,560
Speaker 3: Bothwell being questionable on the sec availability report. Right, they

664
00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:01,760
Speaker 3: really needed him because this Davin Booth just he has

665
00:34:01,800 --> 00:34:04,520
Speaker 3: no juice. He's below three yards after first contact. He's

666
00:34:04,560 --> 00:34:07,040
Speaker 3: just not doing what Fluff Bothwell can do. Really needed

667
00:34:07,080 --> 00:34:08,759
Speaker 3: him for the Mississippi State offense. You go to the

668
00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 3: other side of the ball, Missispi State's rush defense. We've

669
00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:15,680
Speaker 3: talked about Texas A and M's offensive line being able

670
00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:18,000
Speaker 3: to maul them. I am afraid that's what's going to

671
00:34:18,040 --> 00:34:20,200
Speaker 3: happen here. One hundred and twenty eighth in defensive lineyards,

672
00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:22,799
Speaker 3: one hundred and thirty second and stuff. Right, that's it's

673
00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:24,719
Speaker 3: just not going to work with Arch just taking the

674
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:28,040
Speaker 3: ball and doing his RPO or his outside zone counter

675
00:34:28,560 --> 00:34:33,120
Speaker 3: whatever they do. Missippi State so very bad from a

676
00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:35,840
Speaker 3: success right perspective. It gets outside zone, which is what

677
00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:39,840
Speaker 3: Arch is going to run. So I will be trying

678
00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:41,600
Speaker 3: to get out of that six and a half. I'm

679
00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:43,680
Speaker 3: probably not going to get it on the board. If

680
00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:45,759
Speaker 3: I have to swallow and take Texas minus seven to

681
00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:48,640
Speaker 3: get out, I will. It's going to be based on

682
00:34:48,680 --> 00:34:52,720
Speaker 3: Friday's sec availability report and Fluff bothwell playing. If Fluff plays,

683
00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:55,279
Speaker 3: it will potentially moving back down to six and a half.

684
00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:56,920
Speaker 3: But I've got to get out of this number.

685
00:34:56,719 --> 00:34:58,680
Speaker 2: All right, Let's go to the big twelve b YU

686
00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:00,719
Speaker 2: at Iowa State. I had to head here.

687
00:35:02,040 --> 00:35:03,799
Speaker 3: I've already riten it up. I can't go back on

688
00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:06,239
Speaker 3: what I rode, what I bet, all right, but.

689
00:35:07,120 --> 00:35:09,480
Speaker 2: Going ahead to head I got Iowa State. Now, I

690
00:35:09,520 --> 00:35:13,200
Speaker 2: will say this is mainly I was okay with anything

691
00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:13,759
Speaker 2: under three.

692
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:16,520
Speaker 3: Didn't you take Utah against me and I had I

693
00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:18,120
Speaker 3: had BYU No.

694
00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:21,280
Speaker 2: I said I couldn't play. You taught that number. Okay,

695
00:35:22,640 --> 00:35:27,360
Speaker 2: So number one b YU undefeated. I think this is

696
00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:30,520
Speaker 2: the first true freshman, first true freshman in like five

697
00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:33,920
Speaker 2: or six years. I could start eight and now Bachmar

698
00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:35,239
Speaker 2: has some turn of regression coming.

699
00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:37,680
Speaker 3: By the way, Oh come on, man, don't hate on

700
00:35:37,719 --> 00:35:38,040
Speaker 3: the bear.

701
00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:40,960
Speaker 2: Here's the thing. This is a team, this is a

702
00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:43,440
Speaker 2: horrific spot. This is mainly a spot play for me.

703
00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:48,080
Speaker 2: I was stayed off of bye. Matt Campbell has been

704
00:35:48,920 --> 00:35:53,320
Speaker 2: absolutely money after a bye. For what it's worth, he's

705
00:35:54,640 --> 00:35:56,600
Speaker 2: any aims. He's nine and five against the spread sixty

706
00:35:56,600 --> 00:35:59,560
Speaker 2: five percent, follow the covering by about six points per game,

707
00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:01,239
Speaker 2: six and two against the spread. If you saw that

708
00:36:01,239 --> 00:36:04,600
Speaker 2: against Arizona earlier this year, they demolished Arizona, an Arizona

709
00:36:04,600 --> 00:36:07,640
Speaker 2: team that should have beat BYU past two weeks. I mean,

710
00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:11,840
Speaker 2: you're talking BYU is down ten in the fourth quarter

711
00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:16,319
Speaker 2: against Arizona, needs a miraculous fumble recovery, has to score

712
00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:19,600
Speaker 2: a touchdown in the final minute, force overtime, and then

713
00:36:19,640 --> 00:36:23,760
Speaker 2: eventually win. They also were out gained against by Utah

714
00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:26,719
Speaker 2: by over one hundred yards. Utah couldn't get a fourth down,

715
00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:30,880
Speaker 2: turned it over on downs three times deep in Utah Territory,

716
00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:35,360
Speaker 2: had two turnovers, just an absolute twelve penalties, an absolute

717
00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:38,640
Speaker 2: mess of the game. I'm just not buying this BYU team.

718
00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:39,160
Speaker 3: Now.

719
00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:42,719
Speaker 2: What do I like about Iowa State here? Well, one,

720
00:36:43,120 --> 00:36:45,399
Speaker 2: coming off the buy, they can get the timing down

721
00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:48,040
Speaker 2: at their offense. They're going to be healthier. Carson Hansen

722
00:36:48,080 --> 00:36:51,719
Speaker 2: will be back. Most importantly, the defense. This is a

723
00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:56,799
Speaker 2: defensive staff that has turned They turned Darian Porter from

724
00:36:56,840 --> 00:37:00,719
Speaker 2: a converted receiver into a high draft pick in one year.

725
00:37:00,760 --> 00:37:05,600
Speaker 2: At corner, they lost their two stud corners to injury

726
00:37:05,680 --> 00:37:07,800
Speaker 2: and it really burnt them. You could watch their defense

727
00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:10,879
Speaker 2: and they couldn't cover anyone. Well, now you get two

728
00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:12,680
Speaker 2: weeks to kind of figure some of those things out.

729
00:37:12,840 --> 00:37:15,759
Speaker 2: I think they'll look a lot more buttoned up. And

730
00:37:15,800 --> 00:37:19,640
Speaker 2: it's not like BYU has an elite wide receiver room.

731
00:37:19,920 --> 00:37:22,800
Speaker 2: This isn't like a heavy passing offense that's going to

732
00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:26,320
Speaker 2: shred you up and down the field. My biggest concern,

733
00:37:26,360 --> 00:37:29,480
Speaker 2: and I'm just going to trust Rock Gobeck. This BYU

734
00:37:29,560 --> 00:37:34,720
Speaker 2: secondary hasn't really been tested yet, Like Arizona, Utah doesn't

735
00:37:34,719 --> 00:37:39,000
Speaker 2: have the receivers. I think Beck can have some success here. Now.

736
00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:42,200
Speaker 2: My biggest concern and BYU doesn't give up any pressure.

737
00:37:42,239 --> 00:37:45,239
Speaker 2: Their offensive line. They're excellent pass protection, so that kind

738
00:37:45,239 --> 00:37:48,200
Speaker 2: of I always think it's zero pressure, so that doesn't

739
00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:50,440
Speaker 2: even matter here. They're like I think one hundred and

740
00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:53,440
Speaker 2: thirty third pressure, right, My biggest concern. I placed this

741
00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:57,000
Speaker 2: bet before this came out. It's also worth mentioning obviously

742
00:37:57,040 --> 00:37:58,959
Speaker 2: at all. Their kicker back. That's huge. They've been playing

743
00:37:58,960 --> 00:38:01,359
Speaker 2: without a kicker. I think there's stunt kicker Conrad. He's

744
00:38:01,360 --> 00:38:04,240
Speaker 2: gonna be back, that's big. My biggest concern is Dom Orange.

745
00:38:04,239 --> 00:38:06,400
Speaker 2: Looks like he's going to be out. He's their entire

746
00:38:06,680 --> 00:38:10,799
Speaker 2: defensive line, that entire big citrus, big citrus. He's going

747
00:38:10,840 --> 00:38:14,400
Speaker 2: to play in the NFL he's listed is doubtful, massive

748
00:38:14,440 --> 00:38:17,279
Speaker 2: loss because if e Yu just wants to man up

749
00:38:17,760 --> 00:38:19,919
Speaker 2: and say we're going to run the ball and hand

750
00:38:19,920 --> 00:38:24,359
Speaker 2: it to l J. Martin, the Ioway State linebackers are

751
00:38:24,400 --> 00:38:26,719
Speaker 2: really gonna have to come to play. That scares me.

752
00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:29,279
Speaker 2: But this spot, I al would state off the by

753
00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:33,160
Speaker 2: e Yu off, the Holy war Win should have lost

754
00:38:33,200 --> 00:38:35,600
Speaker 2: Arizona undefeated. Remember last year for the Holy war Win

755
00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:38,879
Speaker 2: they laid an egg against Kansas and we're upset. I'm

756
00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:41,960
Speaker 2: gonna trust the spot here and Iowa State, but the

757
00:38:42,120 --> 00:38:46,239
Speaker 2: Orange injury is huge. Why do you like Yu?

758
00:38:46,640 --> 00:38:49,399
Speaker 3: It's funny on social media like Colonie Sataki talking about

759
00:38:49,400 --> 00:38:52,200
Speaker 3: how we just take this as one more game and

760
00:38:52,239 --> 00:38:54,200
Speaker 3: we just move on, and these kids don't get ahead

761
00:38:54,200 --> 00:38:55,760
Speaker 3: of their skis and they don't look at the future

762
00:38:55,760 --> 00:38:57,640
Speaker 3: and they don't, you know, think that they're all at

763
00:38:57,760 --> 00:39:00,640
Speaker 3: and cruising, and then there's like pictures of a Bachmeyer

764
00:39:00,840 --> 00:39:04,919
Speaker 3: like a senior retirement center in provo playing tomos. It's

765
00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:07,680
Speaker 3: like you can't. I mean, you just can't win the

766
00:39:07,680 --> 00:39:11,000
Speaker 3: Holy War and not party a little bit. You're right,

767
00:39:11,280 --> 00:39:14,200
Speaker 3: the spot completely is in for Iowa States coming off

768
00:39:14,200 --> 00:39:15,800
Speaker 3: the buy and by you off the Holy War. And

769
00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:17,480
Speaker 3: I think that that is what's a part of the

770
00:39:17,480 --> 00:39:19,320
Speaker 3: spread because I make this a pick, so two and

771
00:39:19,360 --> 00:39:23,080
Speaker 3: a half you're paying attacks. If there was no situational spot,

772
00:39:23,120 --> 00:39:25,200
Speaker 3: then I think this would be a pick. Really, the

773
00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:27,960
Speaker 3: question in the handicap in this game, where I started

774
00:39:27,960 --> 00:39:30,640
Speaker 3: with the write up on Action Network is do you

775
00:39:30,719 --> 00:39:34,200
Speaker 3: have the ability as Iowa State to defend Bear Bachmeyer

776
00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:38,200
Speaker 3: seventeen all purpose tds by use top five and quality drives.

777
00:39:38,200 --> 00:39:41,000
Speaker 3: They never fall into passing downs like they are always

778
00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:43,560
Speaker 3: ahead of the chains. Inside zone is the driver for

779
00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:47,880
Speaker 3: Bachmeyer and LJ. Martin last two losses for Iowa State,

780
00:39:48,280 --> 00:39:52,040
Speaker 3: who do they lose to Cadence Salter Brennan sorosby Iowa

781
00:39:52,040 --> 00:39:54,960
Speaker 3: State was dominating the air by Colorado but more than

782
00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:57,919
Speaker 3: ten yards per play in twenty five passing attempts same

783
00:39:57,920 --> 00:39:59,879
Speaker 3: for Cincity eleven point four yards per play in twenty

784
00:39:59,880 --> 00:40:03,600
Speaker 3: t two passing downs. This Iowa State defense has gaps.

785
00:40:03,600 --> 00:40:05,960
Speaker 3: And now you're mentioning big Citrus Orange gonna be out

786
00:40:05,960 --> 00:40:08,880
Speaker 3: from the middle. I don't see a world where Martin

787
00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:12,239
Speaker 3: and Bachmeyer are not averaging four to five yards per

788
00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:16,359
Speaker 3: rush using their run concept. Now, Iowa State, I love

789
00:40:16,400 --> 00:40:18,239
Speaker 3: their offense. I mean, I just I can't go back

790
00:40:18,280 --> 00:40:20,240
Speaker 3: on what I've said all year. They're they're heavy personnel,

791
00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:23,919
Speaker 3: they're fifty seven percent rush rate, high amount of zone read.

792
00:40:24,080 --> 00:40:26,239
Speaker 3: But the problem is is rock Obeck's just not getting

793
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:28,120
Speaker 3: a lot of help here. He is on track to

794
00:40:28,120 --> 00:40:30,400
Speaker 3: break a career record in rushing touchdowns because he's not

795
00:40:30,440 --> 00:40:32,400
Speaker 3: getting anything from the run game. Now, you said injuries

796
00:40:32,440 --> 00:40:33,239
Speaker 3: could come back and help him.

797
00:40:33,239 --> 00:40:35,480
Speaker 2: Henson Yanson'll be back. That'll help some, I know.

798
00:40:35,719 --> 00:40:38,360
Speaker 3: But you know the rush defensive BYU they have a

799
00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:41,040
Speaker 3: fifty six percent success rate against inside zone. That's what

800
00:40:41,080 --> 00:40:44,120
Speaker 3: ioways say runs BYUS three three five. They've shut down

801
00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:46,479
Speaker 3: every offense in the pass game. If Beck is gonna

802
00:40:46,480 --> 00:40:48,360
Speaker 3: throw here, he's going to go against a top twenty

803
00:40:48,560 --> 00:40:52,279
Speaker 3: success rate and coverage unit against that is BYU and

804
00:40:52,360 --> 00:40:56,120
Speaker 3: Jay Hills three three five teams falling into passing downs

805
00:40:56,280 --> 00:40:59,960
Speaker 3: against BYU are not able to convert. BYU is fifth

806
00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:03,279
Speaker 3: teenth and defensive passing down success rate. I always say

807
00:41:03,280 --> 00:41:06,120
Speaker 3: it's offense outside the top sixty when they fall behind

808
00:41:06,120 --> 00:41:09,000
Speaker 3: the chains in success rate. It's just it's a spot

809
00:41:09,080 --> 00:41:11,960
Speaker 3: game for Iowa State. It is a numbers game for BYU,

810
00:41:12,040 --> 00:41:14,560
Speaker 3: and I think the Bear continues to eat.

811
00:41:15,440 --> 00:41:18,960
Speaker 2: I have we agree on Baylor hat Cincy put her

812
00:41:18,960 --> 00:41:19,640
Speaker 2: on the board.

813
00:41:20,280 --> 00:41:23,600
Speaker 3: Two and a half. Oh oh, Baylor's oh yeah, oh yeah, absolutely.

814
00:41:24,680 --> 00:41:27,040
Speaker 2: I think just anything over three you could take care. Look,

815
00:41:27,880 --> 00:41:31,520
Speaker 2: both these teams are top twenty five offenses, although I

816
00:41:31,600 --> 00:41:34,120
Speaker 2: take the Baylor offense over since he Sowersby's been amazing.

817
00:41:34,440 --> 00:41:37,320
Speaker 2: The Baylor defense has been trash. The since he defense

818
00:41:37,640 --> 00:41:40,239
Speaker 2: rates a little better. But you got to remember they

819
00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:44,080
Speaker 2: played backup quarterback with Oklahoma State. They played Cam Fancher

820
00:41:44,120 --> 00:41:46,600
Speaker 2: with UCF, and by the way, they were outgained by

821
00:41:46,680 --> 00:41:50,399
Speaker 2: UCF in that game. So they've benefited from a number

822
00:41:50,400 --> 00:41:55,880
Speaker 2: of situations. And Baylor's played the much tougher schedule. So

823
00:41:56,200 --> 00:41:58,600
Speaker 2: what's going to happen here? Since He's run defense has

824
00:41:58,640 --> 00:42:01,560
Speaker 2: been better than their past tea, but Baylor hasn't really

825
00:42:01,560 --> 00:42:04,120
Speaker 2: been able to run it since he gets no pressure.

826
00:42:05,200 --> 00:42:07,319
Speaker 2: Sawyer Robertson is going to be able to sit in

827
00:42:07,360 --> 00:42:10,640
Speaker 2: the pocket with all day to throw, and they are

828
00:42:10,640 --> 00:42:15,040
Speaker 2: gonna have massive advantages outside all over the place. And

829
00:42:15,080 --> 00:42:17,040
Speaker 2: Baylor is gonna move the ball at well, now you

830
00:42:17,040 --> 00:42:20,160
Speaker 2: could say the same thing for Cincy. You're probably right.

831
00:42:20,800 --> 00:42:23,120
Speaker 2: Do you know how this game is gonna play out?

832
00:42:23,160 --> 00:42:26,319
Speaker 2: Like every Baylor game this year? It's gonna probably come

833
00:42:26,360 --> 00:42:28,960
Speaker 2: down to the last possession. Who has the ball last.

834
00:42:29,560 --> 00:42:31,920
Speaker 2: That's the case, and I have these teams power at it.

835
00:42:31,960 --> 00:42:35,280
Speaker 2: Basically even you're gonna give me over a field goal? Yeah,

836
00:42:35,360 --> 00:42:35,799
Speaker 2: all day.

837
00:42:36,160 --> 00:42:39,680
Speaker 3: I haven't written right here, same sentiments. The Sinci defense

838
00:42:40,040 --> 00:42:41,600
Speaker 3: does not have a pass rush.

839
00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:44,359
Speaker 2: They know they can't get any pressure. I remember watching

840
00:42:44,360 --> 00:42:46,879
Speaker 2: them against Bowling Green. They couldn't get any pressure against

841
00:42:46,880 --> 00:42:51,440
Speaker 2: Bowling Green. The entire second at True Pine was just think, think, think, think, think.

842
00:42:52,080 --> 00:42:54,080
Speaker 3: Sawyer Robinson twenty one to seven t D to I

843
00:42:54,200 --> 00:42:56,960
Speaker 3: in T He's doubled his almost double big time throws,

844
00:42:57,000 --> 00:43:00,480
Speaker 3: turnover worthy plays. Look at the total and this game

845
00:43:01,320 --> 00:43:04,359
Speaker 3: sixty seven I'm taking the hook on Baylor plus three

846
00:43:04,360 --> 00:43:07,520
Speaker 3: and a half and I'm looking for Sincy plus seven

847
00:43:07,560 --> 00:43:09,640
Speaker 3: and a half plus ten live. I'm gonna try to

848
00:43:09,640 --> 00:43:12,919
Speaker 3: create the biggest window possible, But in the end, I'll

849
00:43:12,920 --> 00:43:15,040
Speaker 3: take Baylor with a hook on that three all day.

850
00:43:16,320 --> 00:43:19,920
Speaker 2: Taylor better special teams too, for what, by the way,

851
00:43:19,960 --> 00:43:24,359
Speaker 2: South Carolina special teams that's worth mentioning over Alabama big

852
00:43:24,440 --> 00:43:26,080
Speaker 2: edge there don't be supposed South kinda gets like a

853
00:43:26,120 --> 00:43:27,799
Speaker 2: special team score or something in this game.

854
00:43:28,000 --> 00:43:29,600
Speaker 3: You think Beamer is going to be charged, you know,

855
00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:31,840
Speaker 3: like he's gonna take the Virginia Tech job. So just

856
00:43:31,880 --> 00:43:33,399
Speaker 3: you know, just fuck it. Let's get in the bag

857
00:43:33,440 --> 00:43:34,160
Speaker 3: and do whatever the hell.

858
00:43:34,920 --> 00:43:37,680
Speaker 2: They're gonna be. There be some trick plays, there's gonna

859
00:43:37,680 --> 00:43:42,000
Speaker 2: be some special teams spiciness. Second see it, Illinois at Washington.

860
00:43:42,080 --> 00:43:45,960
Speaker 2: This is another playoff elimination game. Because there's a world

861
00:43:45,960 --> 00:43:47,640
Speaker 2: where Illinois or Washington get the ten wins.

862
00:43:47,719 --> 00:43:48,960
Speaker 3: Illinois is not making the plus.

863
00:43:49,440 --> 00:43:53,000
Speaker 2: I'm just saying there's a world where they went out.

864
00:43:53,400 --> 00:43:55,520
Speaker 2: If they lose this game, they're out. So this is

865
00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:57,440
Speaker 2: a complete elimination game. I don't think either of these

866
00:43:57,440 --> 00:43:59,399
Speaker 2: teams are getting to the Coachwall playoffs, but they're both

867
00:43:59,440 --> 00:44:03,960
Speaker 2: sit at five and two. Washington is down to a

868
00:44:04,000 --> 00:44:06,080
Speaker 2: three and a half point favorite at some spots. I

869
00:44:06,120 --> 00:44:08,680
Speaker 2: think consensus will call four total fifty four and a half.

870
00:44:09,640 --> 00:44:14,080
Speaker 2: This is the injuries for Washington are troubling. So last

871
00:44:14,120 --> 00:44:16,680
Speaker 2: week against Michigan, they lost their best pass blocking tight

872
00:44:16,760 --> 00:44:19,439
Speaker 2: end early. He's out for the year. They lost everyone.

873
00:44:19,480 --> 00:44:22,640
Speaker 2: I keep seeing everyone talk about Washington losing Maximis McCree.

874
00:44:23,239 --> 00:44:27,520
Speaker 2: Maximus McCree, no offense to him is horrendous. He's their

875
00:44:27,520 --> 00:44:31,640
Speaker 2: backup left tackle. Everybody they're starting left tackle, his Carver

876
00:44:31,719 --> 00:44:34,280
Speaker 2: Willis he was out, but he wasn't in a booty

877
00:44:34,360 --> 00:44:37,480
Speaker 2: travel with the team. They're starting left guard Mills he

878
00:44:37,560 --> 00:44:39,560
Speaker 2: was also out, but he wasn't on a scooter anymore.

879
00:44:39,600 --> 00:44:43,160
Speaker 2: Like So they're close. If they play, that's a huge

880
00:44:43,160 --> 00:44:46,560
Speaker 2: boost to the offense. If they don't, McCree, who is

881
00:44:46,640 --> 00:44:49,000
Speaker 2: so bad he's out. I think he's out for a

882
00:44:49,040 --> 00:44:52,600
Speaker 2: month or so. His backup is even worse, and the

883
00:44:52,640 --> 00:44:54,239
Speaker 2: whole offense is croubles and now you don't have your

884
00:44:54,239 --> 00:44:57,000
Speaker 2: best pass blocking tight end. So this is very injury

885
00:44:57,040 --> 00:45:00,720
Speaker 2: dependent for me. The spot is pretty good for ILLINOI

886
00:45:00,719 --> 00:45:02,560
Speaker 2: even though they're traveling usually it's like the Big ten

887
00:45:02,600 --> 00:45:05,080
Speaker 2: team traveling on West they're coming off of by Washington's

888
00:45:05,120 --> 00:45:09,000
Speaker 2: been ping ponging all over the country. I need more

889
00:45:09,000 --> 00:45:12,880
Speaker 2: clarity on their offensive line situation because without without I

890
00:45:12,880 --> 00:45:15,160
Speaker 2: mean Willis has been one of the best left tackles,

891
00:45:15,160 --> 00:45:17,759
Speaker 2: I mean all of college football, and he got hurt

892
00:45:17,800 --> 00:45:21,080
Speaker 2: versus Ohio State, and everything since then has been a mess.

893
00:45:21,840 --> 00:45:24,560
Speaker 2: They need their guard, they need Mills back to and

894
00:45:24,600 --> 00:45:26,480
Speaker 2: then without your best pass blocking tight end, like just

895
00:45:26,520 --> 00:45:29,360
Speaker 2: the operation now it's very dice because Washington is not

896
00:45:30,000 --> 00:45:32,879
Speaker 2: in Ohio State. Washington is not as far in terms

897
00:45:32,960 --> 00:45:36,040
Speaker 2: of depth, pretty good roster, but like once you start

898
00:45:36,080 --> 00:45:40,319
Speaker 2: going into that second tier, it gets ugly. So I

899
00:45:40,320 --> 00:45:42,640
Speaker 2: have nothing here pregame.

900
00:45:44,239 --> 00:45:44,480
Speaker 3: I need.

901
00:45:44,640 --> 00:45:47,080
Speaker 2: I need to know about Washington's offensive line injuries. I

902
00:45:47,120 --> 00:45:49,440
Speaker 2: think that swings this one way or the other.

903
00:45:49,880 --> 00:45:51,520
Speaker 3: I did take Washington on a money line in a

904
00:45:51,560 --> 00:45:54,560
Speaker 3: parlay with OU. I just don't have any faith in

905
00:45:54,600 --> 00:45:58,680
Speaker 3: Illinois defending demon Williams and Jonah cole and Jonah Coleman

906
00:45:58,719 --> 00:46:01,600
Speaker 3: and their zone read noise forty percent success rate against

907
00:46:01,640 --> 00:46:04,359
Speaker 3: inside zone and their bottom fifteen and havoc and coverage grade.

908
00:46:04,400 --> 00:46:07,560
Speaker 3: It's just it's bad. And can Luke Altmeyer like, is

909
00:46:07,560 --> 00:46:10,040
Speaker 3: he gonna have success against Washington's man and cover one?

910
00:46:10,560 --> 00:46:12,760
Speaker 3: I'd say no, He's got a forty four percent success

911
00:46:12,840 --> 00:46:15,000
Speaker 3: rate ninety eight snaps against man and just a forty

912
00:46:15,040 --> 00:46:17,600
Speaker 3: three percent success rate eighty three snaps against cover one.

913
00:46:17,920 --> 00:46:20,360
Speaker 3: For those reasons alone, I was happy to put Washington

914
00:46:20,360 --> 00:46:21,080
Speaker 3: into a parlay.

915
00:46:21,080 --> 00:46:23,560
Speaker 2: I do put that on the board, like, let's get

916
00:46:23,560 --> 00:46:24,759
Speaker 2: some action. Ear oh you.

917
00:46:26,600 --> 00:46:31,799
Speaker 3: Oh you you Washington? Yeah? Yeah, because I make the game.

918
00:46:31,840 --> 00:46:33,640
Speaker 3: I make the game here against Illinois three. So four

919
00:46:33,760 --> 00:46:37,239
Speaker 3: is nah, right because if all goes bad with the

920
00:46:37,280 --> 00:46:39,399
Speaker 3: offensive line, I wouldn't want to be sitting in the four.

921
00:46:39,480 --> 00:46:41,560
Speaker 3: But I don't think it's gonna matter. For by the way,

922
00:46:41,600 --> 00:46:44,480
Speaker 3: Illinois if protect four and a half. So Illinois, if

923
00:46:44,520 --> 00:46:46,520
Speaker 3: you want to go into that whole big ten travel crap.

924
00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:50,120
Speaker 3: Illinois only has gone to the West coast once. They

925
00:46:50,200 --> 00:46:52,879
Speaker 3: got slam thirty eight to nine by Oregon last year.

926
00:46:53,080 --> 00:46:54,879
Speaker 3: So we'll see how they do here.

927
00:46:55,960 --> 00:46:56,360
Speaker 1: Uh.

928
00:46:56,560 --> 00:47:00,200
Speaker 2: Last one, Arizona stayed at Houston, Houston, excuse me, huon

929
00:47:00,239 --> 00:47:03,960
Speaker 2: at Arizona State. Good spot for Houston Arizona State off

930
00:47:04,000 --> 00:47:06,720
Speaker 2: that huge win, that all out effort to save their season.

931
00:47:08,400 --> 00:47:13,440
Speaker 2: Houston is seven point underdog here total forty five and

932
00:47:13,480 --> 00:47:16,239
Speaker 2: a half under money makes a lot of sense because

933
00:47:16,320 --> 00:47:19,040
Speaker 2: Jordan Tyson's out and Arizona State has a lot of

934
00:47:19,040 --> 00:47:21,520
Speaker 2: other potential injuries. It looks like Prince Dorma, one of

935
00:47:21,520 --> 00:47:23,320
Speaker 2: their best Prince Dorverer, one of their best pass rushers,

936
00:47:23,400 --> 00:47:26,080
Speaker 2: was going to be out. Crook, one of their best linebackers,

937
00:47:26,080 --> 00:47:28,719
Speaker 2: could be out. Both of their safeties could be out.

938
00:47:29,239 --> 00:47:31,799
Speaker 2: This is a team that's decimated, but without Jordan Tyson,

939
00:47:31,800 --> 00:47:33,600
Speaker 2: he's not gonna be the best wide receiver in the country.

940
00:47:34,000 --> 00:47:36,839
Speaker 2: That's how you kind of want to attack Houston, like

941
00:47:37,040 --> 00:47:40,320
Speaker 2: this is going to be just a brawl. Willie Fritz,

942
00:47:40,360 --> 00:47:43,520
Speaker 2: who's the fourth most profitable coach among all active coaches

943
00:47:43,520 --> 00:47:45,239
Speaker 2: over the past twenty years. All he does is cover.

944
00:47:45,480 --> 00:47:49,360
Speaker 2: All Sam Levitt and Kenny do is cover together. So

945
00:47:49,480 --> 00:47:50,840
Speaker 2: I took some seven and a half earlier in the

946
00:47:50,880 --> 00:47:53,560
Speaker 2: week thinking this was going to drop because of the

947
00:47:53,600 --> 00:47:56,240
Speaker 2: potential injury news, because I was hearing rumors about Tyson.

948
00:47:56,880 --> 00:47:58,640
Speaker 2: I might come back on Arizona State like I just

949
00:47:58,680 --> 00:48:02,880
Speaker 2: don't trust the Houston offense enough, but the undermakes sense,

950
00:48:03,200 --> 00:48:06,360
Speaker 2: Like taking the points is because Arizona State's offense without Tyson,

951
00:48:06,480 --> 00:48:08,640
Speaker 2: like and there's no Scataboo. I know, like people are

952
00:48:08,640 --> 00:48:10,120
Speaker 2: gonna say, oh, there was no Tyson in the Big

953
00:48:10,120 --> 00:48:12,400
Speaker 2: Twelve champions. They lost Tyson the end of last year.

954
00:48:12,600 --> 00:48:15,200
Speaker 2: The receivers around him were better last year, and they

955
00:48:15,239 --> 00:48:18,120
Speaker 2: had Camp Scatabu and now you have a bunch of

956
00:48:18,120 --> 00:48:21,719
Speaker 2: defensive injuries as well. So like I might come back

957
00:48:21,719 --> 00:48:26,600
Speaker 2: a little bit on Arizona State, but especially if this

958
00:48:26,640 --> 00:48:29,040
Speaker 2: gets to like six and a half, we'll see if

959
00:48:29,040 --> 00:48:32,279
Speaker 2: some of the questionable guys on their defense play. Do

960
00:48:32,360 --> 00:48:33,160
Speaker 2: you see anything here?

961
00:48:33,719 --> 00:48:36,279
Speaker 3: Yeah? I mean I think ray League Brown is enough

962
00:48:36,280 --> 00:48:38,359
Speaker 3: on the Arizona State defense to do some damage here.

963
00:48:38,400 --> 00:48:40,719
Speaker 3: Houston's not great against the rush, I mean, I mean

964
00:48:40,719 --> 00:48:41,359
Speaker 3: they're seventy fifth.

965
00:48:41,400 --> 00:48:43,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, but it's so much easier to defend now and

966
00:48:43,760 --> 00:48:44,880
Speaker 2: you don't have to worry about Tyson.

967
00:48:45,680 --> 00:48:48,480
Speaker 3: True. I mean this was also a Havoc Play the

968
00:48:48,520 --> 00:48:50,960
Speaker 3: Week for me because Arizona State dominates on defensive having

969
00:48:51,000 --> 00:48:52,719
Speaker 3: it even if they're missing some of their guys, they're

970
00:48:52,760 --> 00:48:55,840
Speaker 3: still like in all areas of havoc have a massive

971
00:48:55,840 --> 00:48:59,160
Speaker 3: advantage against the Houston offense. And Houston offense, I mean,

972
00:48:59,200 --> 00:49:01,879
Speaker 3: they're just their numbers disgusting. They're next to near near

973
00:49:02,000 --> 00:49:04,640
Speaker 3: dead last and pass blocking. If you go to Arizona

974
00:49:04,680 --> 00:49:07,239
Speaker 3: State last year, you say, well, they should have had

975
00:49:07,280 --> 00:49:09,239
Speaker 3: a come down on this massive, like six game win

976
00:49:09,280 --> 00:49:11,600
Speaker 3: streak that got them, you know, into the college football Playoff.

977
00:49:11,600 --> 00:49:14,160
Speaker 3: I mean they beat number Kansas, number twenty Kansas State.

978
00:49:14,200 --> 00:49:16,760
Speaker 3: They showed up the next week beat number fourteen BYU.

979
00:49:17,120 --> 00:49:20,080
Speaker 3: Then they went on the road against Arizona, against against

980
00:49:20,200 --> 00:49:23,319
Speaker 3: you know, against Ffida and our guy, and they beat

981
00:49:23,360 --> 00:49:25,560
Speaker 3: Arizona on the road forty nine to seven. So I

982
00:49:25,640 --> 00:49:30,719
Speaker 3: just dilly dilly, dilly dilly, haam has this. I think

983
00:49:30,719 --> 00:49:32,799
Speaker 3: this is the way. If you're going to hire new

984
00:49:32,840 --> 00:49:35,560
Speaker 3: head coaches and now we're up to eleven spots, you're

985
00:49:35,600 --> 00:49:37,400
Speaker 3: gonna have to go get a Kenney Dillingham type. You're

986
00:49:37,440 --> 00:49:41,200
Speaker 3: gonna have to get somebody that is young, connects with

987
00:49:41,239 --> 00:49:43,800
Speaker 3: the kids and gets them to show up every week.

988
00:49:44,360 --> 00:49:46,759
Speaker 3: And I just I didn't think this before, but I

989
00:49:46,800 --> 00:49:50,160
Speaker 3: think Kenney Dillingham, I'm not sure he has dips with

990
00:49:50,239 --> 00:49:53,839
Speaker 3: their performance. So I'm back in Arizona State here. I

991
00:49:53,920 --> 00:49:56,840
Speaker 3: like the havoc numbers. I don't trust in Houston's offense whatsoever.

992
00:49:57,600 --> 00:50:01,239
Speaker 2: How about one more had to head. I'll even give

993
00:50:01,280 --> 00:50:06,120
Speaker 2: you six and a half p NC State State beat Pit.

994
00:50:06,840 --> 00:50:09,000
Speaker 3: I mean off of.

995
00:50:09,000 --> 00:50:12,879
Speaker 2: Buye has been magical. New coordinators. They needed to buy.

996
00:50:13,600 --> 00:50:15,919
Speaker 2: This is a team. Look they gave Virginia. They're only lost.

997
00:50:15,960 --> 00:50:18,920
Speaker 2: They wonted a very good weight team. They have the

998
00:50:19,000 --> 00:50:21,400
Speaker 2: explosive passing. The receivers are all going to be healthy.

999
00:50:21,560 --> 00:50:23,560
Speaker 2: They have the explosive passing, which is how you attack Pit.

1000
00:50:23,680 --> 00:50:26,920
Speaker 2: Pitt's defense is not healthy. Their offensive line is not healthy.

1001
00:50:26,920 --> 00:50:28,560
Speaker 2: Desmond Reid is not a full strength He's on a

1002
00:50:28,600 --> 00:50:31,080
Speaker 2: snap count last week. By the way, last week against Syracuse,

1003
00:50:31,400 --> 00:50:33,520
Speaker 2: Syracuse basically game the game. They only had tw hundred

1004
00:50:33,560 --> 00:50:37,399
Speaker 2: fifty yards. The Mason hid Scheel experience experiment is coming

1005
00:50:37,400 --> 00:50:39,919
Speaker 2: to an end. Syracuse laid out the blueprint last week.

1006
00:50:40,239 --> 00:50:44,359
Speaker 2: He just blitz, twist, stunt. It's seventh pack. Yep, they

1007
00:50:44,360 --> 00:50:47,760
Speaker 2: had nothing. They couldn't do anything. NC State is winning

1008
00:50:47,760 --> 00:50:51,040
Speaker 2: that game. Here's the thing, Pitt, Oh, everyone pits back.

1009
00:50:51,760 --> 00:50:59,040
Speaker 2: They've won three straight against Florida State, A GAMEC and Syracuse.

1010
00:50:59,320 --> 00:51:02,879
Speaker 2: Those three teams have lost thirteen consecutive games on their own,

1011
00:51:03,080 --> 00:51:07,719
Speaker 2: and here Messes injury wise selling it high, buying NC

1012
00:51:07,840 --> 00:51:10,560
Speaker 2: State off the buy they have the offense to keep up.

1013
00:51:10,800 --> 00:51:12,920
Speaker 2: I'm not buying this pit offense right now. And Pitt

1014
00:51:12,920 --> 00:51:15,040
Speaker 2: has a bunch of injuries on defense, like they were out.

1015
00:51:15,120 --> 00:51:17,480
Speaker 2: A couple of their best linebackers last week. One left

1016
00:51:17,520 --> 00:51:19,280
Speaker 2: during the m Kyle Lewis left during the game, Biles

1017
00:51:19,320 --> 00:51:22,000
Speaker 2: didn't play. A couple of their guys are banged up.

1018
00:51:22,040 --> 00:51:25,800
Speaker 2: So yeah, just when you think Pitt's back, Nardoozy's gonna

1019
00:51:25,840 --> 00:51:27,239
Speaker 2: Nardoozy and drop one.

1020
00:51:27,520 --> 00:51:30,000
Speaker 3: That is true, like he went back. So I'm not

1021
00:51:30,000 --> 00:51:31,920
Speaker 3: gonna go ahead to head with you because I'm I mean,

1022
00:51:31,920 --> 00:51:34,200
Speaker 3: why would I after that soliloquy of injury that you

1023
00:51:34,239 --> 00:51:37,120
Speaker 3: put together. Okaylin Heinscheld done. What are you doing with

1024
00:51:37,200 --> 00:51:38,880
Speaker 3: my guy Mason here? This guy's amazing.

1025
00:51:39,080 --> 00:51:43,880
Speaker 2: Ova QB injuries syrahcuse by the way they brought in

1026
00:51:43,960 --> 00:51:45,719
Speaker 2: the true like Ricky Collins have been bad. They brought

1027
00:51:45,719 --> 00:51:47,560
Speaker 2: in the true freshman last week, but he didn't know

1028
00:51:47,600 --> 00:51:50,080
Speaker 2: the playbook enough and couldn't pass. Like on third and nine,

1029
00:51:50,080 --> 00:51:52,680
Speaker 2: they would bring Collins in what a disaster. I think

1030
00:51:52,719 --> 00:51:55,640
Speaker 2: Collin's gonna start. I don't know. I kind of wanted

1031
00:51:55,640 --> 00:51:59,240
Speaker 2: to play cues, but like Georgia, Tech's an awful, big favorite. Yeah,

1032
00:51:59,320 --> 00:52:01,720
Speaker 2: I kind of like the under there too, But there's

1033
00:52:01,719 --> 00:52:06,160
Speaker 2: some uncertainty with like what Syracuse is going to do Perdue.

1034
00:52:06,600 --> 00:52:08,960
Speaker 2: I think Ryan Brown is out. I mean Singleton's gonna go.

1035
00:52:09,040 --> 00:52:09,879
Speaker 2: Is Singleton bad?

1036
00:52:10,400 --> 00:52:12,800
Speaker 3: Malachia was only good at running the ball for Arkansas.

1037
00:52:12,840 --> 00:52:15,400
Speaker 3: He was horrific throwing. So Noah, that's what it looks like.

1038
00:52:16,719 --> 00:52:20,480
Speaker 3: But Rutgers defense is historically bad. I mean it is

1039
00:52:20,920 --> 00:52:23,720
Speaker 3: it is. Yeah, it's a bad, bad.

1040
00:52:23,600 --> 00:52:25,640
Speaker 2: Big I don't know if Drew Pine is back, that's

1041
00:52:25,640 --> 00:52:27,640
Speaker 2: worth watching because Lucian Anderson.

1042
00:52:27,960 --> 00:52:28,400
Speaker 3: Is not it.

1043
00:52:28,920 --> 00:52:31,600
Speaker 2: Rice? Are you gonna get into Rice? So Rice is

1044
00:52:31,600 --> 00:52:34,719
Speaker 2: playing Yukon. It's a great spot. Yukon, by the way,

1045
00:52:34,800 --> 00:52:36,239
Speaker 2: is going to be a huge fade here soon. They

1046
00:52:36,239 --> 00:52:38,560
Speaker 2: played FIU without other d backs. They played Buffalo with

1047
00:52:38,560 --> 00:52:41,400
Speaker 2: their backup quarterbacks. They played BC without basically every starter

1048
00:52:41,520 --> 00:52:45,040
Speaker 2: last week. Now they played Rice, who and Rice is

1049
00:52:45,080 --> 00:52:46,960
Speaker 2: a similar offense to ball State and ball State gave

1050
00:52:47,000 --> 00:52:48,600
Speaker 2: you kind a lot of trouble. But I don't know

1051
00:52:48,640 --> 00:52:51,719
Speaker 2: who's left at quarterback. Rice kicked off number one of

1052
00:52:51,760 --> 00:52:52,400
Speaker 2: their cornerback.

1053
00:52:52,560 --> 00:52:54,560
Speaker 3: Three injuries against utsa quarter Yeah.

1054
00:52:54,400 --> 00:52:58,359
Speaker 2: They were under their cornerback for they So they came

1055
00:52:58,360 --> 00:53:00,000
Speaker 2: out this week and said they don't know. There's one

1056
00:53:00,000 --> 00:53:01,759
Speaker 2: one of the freshmen they're available. They said the rest

1057
00:53:01,800 --> 00:53:04,120
Speaker 2: of it, they won't know till game day. Do you

1058
00:53:04,160 --> 00:53:08,799
Speaker 2: remember aj Paget, Yeah, he was running. He was one

1059
00:53:08,800 --> 00:53:10,520
Speaker 2: of the two quarterbacks, was Availab During the bye week,

1060
00:53:10,520 --> 00:53:12,160
Speaker 2: they couldn't even do the scrimmages they wanted to do.

1061
00:53:12,440 --> 00:53:14,640
Speaker 2: He was moved to a tight end. Then long snapper

1062
00:53:14,719 --> 00:53:17,759
Speaker 2: had to come back to be quarterback last week. That's

1063
00:53:17,800 --> 00:53:20,880
Speaker 2: how many injuries are. So, I don't know if Jenkins

1064
00:53:20,920 --> 00:53:23,880
Speaker 2: is gonna play. He would be effective running that option

1065
00:53:23,960 --> 00:53:26,880
Speaker 2: against Yukon. It would be a good spot he was.

1066
00:53:27,080 --> 00:53:28,720
Speaker 3: He was the guy before JT. Daniels.

1067
00:53:28,800 --> 00:53:28,920
Speaker 1: Right.

1068
00:53:29,280 --> 00:53:32,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, they did throw off they also. Do you remember

1069
00:53:32,640 --> 00:53:34,640
Speaker 2: the kid the kid who did the helmet thing in

1070
00:53:34,680 --> 00:53:37,560
Speaker 2: the tunnel for Michigan State swung as he got He

1071
00:53:37,640 --> 00:53:39,960
Speaker 2: just got thrown off. Rice got thrown off the team's

1072
00:53:40,000 --> 00:53:42,919
Speaker 2: He was one of their starting quarterbacks. What a mess

1073
00:53:42,960 --> 00:53:47,600
Speaker 2: of the game. Stanford Branson. I haven't seen anything. I mean,

1074
00:53:47,960 --> 00:53:50,759
Speaker 2: they're at Miami. I can't lay with Miami. Laying it

1075
00:53:50,760 --> 00:53:55,000
Speaker 2: with Crystal Ball is don't do it. There could be

1076
00:53:55,040 --> 00:53:59,480
Speaker 2: weather in the Northwest. That's worth mentioning too. Uh, there

1077
00:53:59,520 --> 00:54:02,239
Speaker 2: could be a system, So keep an eye on some

1078
00:54:02,280 --> 00:54:04,320
Speaker 2: of the games out in the Pacific Northwest.

1079
00:54:04,600 --> 00:54:06,560
Speaker 3: It's supposed to rain here all weekend, and Fable too.

1080
00:54:07,280 --> 00:54:07,960
Speaker 3: I'd watch out.

1081
00:54:08,239 --> 00:54:11,359
Speaker 2: We'll get to fay Will in just a second. By

1082
00:54:11,400 --> 00:54:13,120
Speaker 2: the way, Action Network AP. If you're new here and

1083
00:54:13,160 --> 00:54:14,840
Speaker 2: you do not have it, you're missing the full BBOC

1084
00:54:14,960 --> 00:54:17,600
Speaker 2: betting experience. Right now, get twenty dollars off an annual

1085
00:54:17,640 --> 00:54:21,200
Speaker 2: subscription of Action Pro Access with promo code BBOC twenty.

1086
00:54:21,640 --> 00:54:23,880
Speaker 2: Never miss a bet from myself, Colin Duck, the whole squad.

1087
00:54:23,920 --> 00:54:26,319
Speaker 2: Just go to actionework dot com Slash pro and use

1088
00:54:26,400 --> 00:54:33,160
Speaker 2: code BBOC twenty. It's time for some trash. What's that smell?

1089
00:54:33,680 --> 00:54:34,800
Speaker 1: It stinks?

1090
00:54:35,040 --> 00:54:36,360
Speaker 2: What you mean this trash?

1091
00:54:36,600 --> 00:54:38,480
Speaker 3: The sweet sweet trash.

1092
00:54:39,360 --> 00:54:43,080
Speaker 2: The trash is a gold mine, old mine, old mine.

1093
00:54:43,400 --> 00:54:46,400
Speaker 2: Trash is thirty five and twenty seven fifty six and

1094
00:54:46,440 --> 00:54:49,279
Speaker 2: a half percent. We only got three this week. This

1095
00:54:49,320 --> 00:54:52,239
Speaker 2: one is ugly SPARTI plus fourteen and a half. I

1096
00:54:52,280 --> 00:54:53,839
Speaker 2: know you played Michigan. Do you want to go ahead

1097
00:54:53,880 --> 00:54:54,240
Speaker 2: to head.

1098
00:54:54,120 --> 00:54:55,040
Speaker 3: Hair I do.

1099
00:54:55,400 --> 00:55:00,759
Speaker 2: Let's go build your k So my reasoning rivalry game

1100
00:55:00,760 --> 00:55:03,360
Speaker 2: catching umber two touchdowns, I make it slightly under two touchdowns.

1101
00:55:04,040 --> 00:55:07,120
Speaker 2: Michigan State could be getting some guys back on the

1102
00:55:07,200 --> 00:55:09,560
Speaker 2: defensive end, and that'd be huge because the backups have

1103
00:55:09,600 --> 00:55:11,400
Speaker 2: been so bad and the drop off. You're seeing this

1104
00:55:11,480 --> 00:55:14,080
Speaker 2: at Wisconsin, You're seeing this at a number of these

1105
00:55:15,160 --> 00:55:17,600
Speaker 2: lower level big tensil as soon as there's an injury.

1106
00:55:17,640 --> 00:55:20,400
Speaker 2: The backups are so bad. We'll see if Spencer's okay.

1107
00:55:20,480 --> 00:55:23,640
Speaker 2: We'll see if Martinez is back, Grady Kelly be back.

1108
00:55:23,680 --> 00:55:25,800
Speaker 2: He had a kid last week on the defensive front.

1109
00:55:26,360 --> 00:55:29,759
Speaker 2: But this Michigan offense look one of their tight ends

1110
00:55:29,800 --> 00:55:31,839
Speaker 2: at a breakout game last week, the kid who came

1111
00:55:31,880 --> 00:55:34,480
Speaker 2: in a left tackle because they lost to having link

1112
00:55:34,560 --> 00:55:36,799
Speaker 2: for a couple of weeks. He looked fantastic. They might

1113
00:55:36,840 --> 00:55:39,000
Speaker 2: have three red shirt freshmen starting on the offensive line

1114
00:55:39,000 --> 00:55:41,680
Speaker 2: and a true freshman quarterback. It's just not the same

1115
00:55:41,719 --> 00:55:45,080
Speaker 2: operation on the road. I get Michigan State's defense is horrendous.

1116
00:55:45,120 --> 00:55:47,879
Speaker 2: They might be a little healthier this week, but Aan

1117
00:55:47,960 --> 00:55:50,360
Speaker 2: Childs looked great last week. There was rumors that he

1118
00:55:50,400 --> 00:55:53,400
Speaker 2: wasn't fully healthy. Maybe that was true, and now he is.

1119
00:55:53,960 --> 00:55:56,759
Speaker 2: And they went to the quick passing game. Yeah, just

1120
00:55:56,840 --> 00:55:59,440
Speaker 2: get rid of the ball, abandon the run, and that

1121
00:55:59,520 --> 00:56:02,040
Speaker 2: worked for him. When Childs gets rid of the ball quick,

1122
00:56:02,080 --> 00:56:03,879
Speaker 2: he's good. As soon as he starts holding it, it's

1123
00:56:03,920 --> 00:56:04,440
Speaker 2: a disaster.

1124
00:56:05,560 --> 00:56:07,160
Speaker 3: Blitz he hears footsteps.

1125
00:56:07,520 --> 00:56:09,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's also going to get the blitz because it

1126
00:56:09,040 --> 00:56:11,480
Speaker 2: forced them just to throw it. Lake Bartendale my foots

1127
00:56:11,480 --> 00:56:15,000
Speaker 2: a lot Mischi Cantada's talented receivers. I'm gonna count. I'm

1128
00:56:15,000 --> 00:56:17,200
Speaker 2: going to trust them to stay within fourteen and a half.

1129
00:56:17,239 --> 00:56:20,200
Speaker 2: We're going to head to head there, Fau principal bet.

1130
00:56:20,600 --> 00:56:22,040
Speaker 2: It's it. Fourteen and a half.

1131
00:56:22,280 --> 00:56:24,120
Speaker 3: Service Academy double dishes is what is?

1132
00:56:24,280 --> 00:56:26,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, Service got to be laying over two touchdowns. And

1133
00:56:26,320 --> 00:56:29,120
Speaker 2: Navy's past defense is bad. We'll see if they're one

1134
00:56:29,120 --> 00:56:30,960
Speaker 2: of their best corners is still out of miss Temple.

1135
00:56:31,680 --> 00:56:34,640
Speaker 2: Navy has played clowns. They played nobody.

1136
00:56:35,040 --> 00:56:38,960
Speaker 3: They are thirty sixth and then strength the schedule Pervio.

1137
00:56:39,160 --> 00:56:40,840
Speaker 2: The only good team they played is Temple and they

1138
00:56:40,840 --> 00:56:43,880
Speaker 2: should have lost. They the refs blew the call at

1139
00:56:43,880 --> 00:56:47,080
Speaker 2: the end of the game and cost Temple to win,

1140
00:56:47,400 --> 00:56:49,600
Speaker 2: and they got Temple went up and down the field

1141
00:56:49,640 --> 00:56:53,320
Speaker 2: with these fau can score here. I just hope they

1142
00:56:53,440 --> 00:56:55,319
Speaker 2: keep melting down in the fourth quarter when I bet him,

1143
00:56:55,360 --> 00:56:57,279
Speaker 2: so hopefully not here. But yeah, Service got to be

1144
00:56:57,320 --> 00:57:01,960
Speaker 2: laying over two touchdowns historically thirty seven percent. We're taking

1145
00:57:02,040 --> 00:57:05,319
Speaker 2: fau kats. We're going Kentucky. I'm throwing him the trash

1146
00:57:05,400 --> 00:57:08,560
Speaker 2: here as I needed a third against Tennessee. This Tennessee

1147
00:57:08,560 --> 00:57:12,920
Speaker 2: defense is a fraud. They can't tackle. You can methodically

1148
00:57:12,920 --> 00:57:14,520
Speaker 2: move the ball in him. That's what Kentucky wants to do.

1149
00:57:15,560 --> 00:57:19,040
Speaker 2: Most importantly, Kentucky found something during the bye. I was

1150
00:57:19,040 --> 00:57:21,520
Speaker 2: telling you last week I heard Cutter Bowley looked great

1151
00:57:21,600 --> 00:57:23,760
Speaker 2: during the bye. He was able to work when this

1152
00:57:23,880 --> 00:57:27,640
Speaker 2: timing get the offense going. He was fantastic against Texas,

1153
00:57:27,640 --> 00:57:31,320
Speaker 2: set a freshman program record for completion percentage. And that's

1154
00:57:31,320 --> 00:57:35,320
Speaker 2: against an elite Texas defense. This is a much easier

1155
00:57:35,360 --> 00:57:37,920
Speaker 2: defense to go against. I think this line should be seven,

1156
00:57:38,560 --> 00:57:41,400
Speaker 2: so I'll take the eight and a half. Agree or

1157
00:57:41,400 --> 00:57:42,200
Speaker 2: disagree there.

1158
00:57:42,080 --> 00:57:44,040
Speaker 3: I make a nine. It's on nine, so no touch

1159
00:57:44,080 --> 00:57:46,920
Speaker 3: for me. But you're closer to Kentucky than I am.

1160
00:57:47,000 --> 00:57:49,560
Speaker 3: I just thought it was that shell defense keeping Texas

1161
00:57:49,560 --> 00:57:51,720
Speaker 3: from doing anyth because it was a low scoring, nasty

1162
00:57:51,800 --> 00:57:52,439
Speaker 3: watching game.

1163
00:57:52,920 --> 00:57:56,280
Speaker 2: But look what Bowley did, bowlie eighty percent completion like

1164
00:57:56,320 --> 00:57:58,720
Speaker 2: he was good and he was much better than Arch

1165
00:57:58,800 --> 00:58:04,040
Speaker 2: And that defense for where Texas is legit, Tennessee's is not.

1166
00:58:04,280 --> 00:58:07,000
Speaker 2: By the way, Tennessee should have lost to Arkansas. Tennessee

1167
00:58:07,000 --> 00:58:11,280
Speaker 2: should have lost to Mississippi State. Kentucky was one should

1168
00:58:11,320 --> 00:58:15,280
Speaker 2: have beat Texas. Tennessee. Kentucky also played with old mists

1169
00:58:15,480 --> 00:58:17,720
Speaker 2: within one possession all the way to the end. If

1170
00:58:17,960 --> 00:58:23,280
Speaker 2: Kentucky gets that one yard against Texas or Tennessee loses

1171
00:58:23,280 --> 00:58:26,680
Speaker 2: to Mississippi State indoor Arkansas, this line is not above seven.

1172
00:58:27,280 --> 00:58:30,360
Speaker 2: Tennessee is a fraud, all right?

1173
00:58:30,680 --> 00:58:33,240
Speaker 3: Uh go cat, you're saying that and I'm not.

1174
00:58:33,840 --> 00:58:35,520
Speaker 2: That's yeah, and I'm on I always say, and you're not.

1175
00:58:35,560 --> 00:58:36,360
Speaker 2: What's going on here?

1176
00:58:37,040 --> 00:58:37,360
Speaker 3: All right?

1177
00:58:37,360 --> 00:58:40,960
Speaker 2: That'll do it for trash Spartan up got cats and

1178
00:58:41,000 --> 00:58:44,040
Speaker 2: then some al gifts fu owes me. But really just

1179
00:58:44,080 --> 00:58:49,120
Speaker 2: a principal fade. Do you want to get really ugly

1180
00:58:49,160 --> 00:58:52,040
Speaker 2: if Wisconsin, if there's weather in Wisconsin as some of

1181
00:58:52,040 --> 00:58:52,880
Speaker 2: their defenders back.

1182
00:58:53,120 --> 00:58:55,000
Speaker 3: You can't keep doing this with Wisconsin.

1183
00:58:55,160 --> 00:58:58,080
Speaker 2: I haven't bet them. I'm saying I was gonna do

1184
00:58:58,120 --> 00:59:02,280
Speaker 2: some state the scored and in like September, didn't listen

1185
00:59:02,280 --> 00:59:04,280
Speaker 2: to me. I said, if their defenders are back and

1186
00:59:04,320 --> 00:59:07,400
Speaker 2: there's weather, their run dye is still good, especially if

1187
00:59:07,400 --> 00:59:10,160
Speaker 2: they get their If they get their Saint Zachman back

1188
00:59:10,200 --> 00:59:13,320
Speaker 2: at safety and they're down by a lot, they might

1189
00:59:13,360 --> 00:59:15,439
Speaker 2: be worth a look second half. That's all I'm saying.

1190
00:59:15,560 --> 00:59:17,360
Speaker 3: You know what, you know what a gross mad is,

1191
00:59:18,120 --> 00:59:21,400
Speaker 3: But ulm against my forty to one Southern myth.

1192
00:59:21,880 --> 00:59:24,880
Speaker 2: I can't ulm with their kickers. I don't like their

1193
00:59:25,280 --> 00:59:27,080
Speaker 2: games are just dumb variants because they're just gonna go

1194
00:59:27,120 --> 00:59:29,760
Speaker 2: for every fourth down. Okay, I want to find I

1195
00:59:29,800 --> 00:59:31,840
Speaker 2: can't find a clip of the kick when the kid,

1196
00:59:32,160 --> 00:59:34,280
Speaker 2: the kid who is like think he's an Irish kidd,

1197
00:59:34,320 --> 00:59:36,120
Speaker 2: he won the walk on trot to be their kicker,

1198
00:59:36,120 --> 00:59:38,560
Speaker 2: and he just kicked it straight to two yards off

1199
00:59:38,560 --> 00:59:39,760
Speaker 2: the ground, straight into the wall.

1200
00:59:41,160 --> 00:59:44,040
Speaker 1: You are about to enter a world unlike any you've

1201
00:59:44,040 --> 00:59:48,160
Speaker 1: ever seen before, where the beautiful, the brutal, and the

1202
00:59:48,160 --> 01:00:01,640
Speaker 1: brave all meat.

1203
01:00:05,400 --> 01:00:08,160
Speaker 2: Let's go nowhere. If ats San Diego State at Fresno,

1204
01:00:08,840 --> 01:00:11,280
Speaker 2: I love Fresno three or better. I think there should

1205
01:00:11,280 --> 01:00:14,160
Speaker 2: be a pick. Santa has been great. Look, they've been great.

1206
01:00:14,200 --> 01:00:17,520
Speaker 2: Their defense has been outstanding, but they've I mean on

1207
01:00:17,560 --> 01:00:20,920
Speaker 2: the road. They scored six points against Northern Illinois NORTHERNLLOI

1208
01:00:21,000 --> 01:00:23,600
Speaker 2: is one in six. They beat one in six Nevada.

1209
01:00:23,840 --> 01:00:26,320
Speaker 2: They got blown out by Washington State. This team has

1210
01:00:26,360 --> 01:00:29,040
Speaker 2: played absolutely nobody. They caught Town a great spot. That's

1211
01:00:29,080 --> 01:00:31,439
Speaker 2: the one feather in their cap. The reason I really

1212
01:00:31,440 --> 01:00:33,800
Speaker 2: like Fresno here though, coming both teams coming off of bye,

1213
01:00:33,840 --> 01:00:35,880
Speaker 2: I think it's more valuable for Fresno, brand new staff,

1214
01:00:35,920 --> 01:00:39,240
Speaker 2: brand new quarterback. They might there might be a quarterback change.

1215
01:00:39,280 --> 01:00:40,960
Speaker 2: I think at the bare minimum there's going to be

1216
01:00:41,000 --> 01:00:44,360
Speaker 2: more quarterback run package. But who is the Fresno defensive

1217
01:00:44,400 --> 01:00:47,560
Speaker 2: coordinator Nick Benedetto, who I really like? Where was he

1218
01:00:47,600 --> 01:00:52,120
Speaker 2: at last year Northern Illinois. Both teams run similar schemes.

1219
01:00:52,600 --> 01:00:55,480
Speaker 2: Northern Illinois completely shut down San Diego State. They couldn't

1220
01:00:55,520 --> 01:00:57,520
Speaker 2: do anything. And you know what Nick probably did for

1221
01:00:57,520 --> 01:00:59,200
Speaker 2: the past two weeks talk to his friends in the

1222
01:00:59,280 --> 01:01:03,720
Speaker 2: cold intel and he has one receiver to shutdown in

1223
01:01:03,720 --> 01:01:06,520
Speaker 2: this game. It's a really good one. You got one

1224
01:01:06,560 --> 01:01:09,320
Speaker 2: receiver to shut down and President's run. He's been good,

1225
01:01:09,320 --> 01:01:11,560
Speaker 2: but I think the buisn be beneficial for President. This line

1226
01:01:11,680 --> 01:01:15,560
Speaker 2: is crazy plus three plus three and a half. I

1227
01:01:15,640 --> 01:01:17,120
Speaker 2: like Fresno. Do you like anything in the total?

1228
01:01:17,240 --> 01:01:19,080
Speaker 3: My job description is to look at the total in

1229
01:01:19,120 --> 01:01:21,560
Speaker 3: all San Diego State games because they are a vertical

1230
01:01:21,600 --> 01:01:24,720
Speaker 3: and electric offense. I project this at forty eight. I

1231
01:01:24,800 --> 01:01:26,480
Speaker 3: take the over at forty seven, And now that you're

1232
01:01:26,520 --> 01:01:28,560
Speaker 3: talking about that, it adds into the notes that I

1233
01:01:28,600 --> 01:01:32,080
Speaker 3: already had. These offenses are extremely slow, but this is

1234
01:01:32,120 --> 01:01:34,880
Speaker 3: all about Jaden Dinegal and throwing those bombs because San

1235
01:01:34,960 --> 01:01:39,320
Speaker 3: Diego State is tenth and pass EPA and fred and

1236
01:01:39,360 --> 01:01:42,320
Speaker 3: so you look at Jayden Dinegal's numbers. He's only thrown

1237
01:01:42,320 --> 01:01:44,520
Speaker 3: two interceptions this year. Who was it against? You've already

1238
01:01:44,600 --> 01:01:47,240
Speaker 3: named him off Northern Illinois. So what is it that

1239
01:01:47,320 --> 01:01:50,920
Speaker 3: Northern Illinois does that completely threw Dinegal off. It's the

1240
01:01:50,920 --> 01:01:53,200
Speaker 3: only time that he's seen at cover three. Now, FRESNOC

1241
01:01:53,320 --> 01:01:55,680
Speaker 3: doesn't run cover three. They run quarters and cover one,

1242
01:01:55,720 --> 01:01:57,919
Speaker 3: but quarters is more of a cover four. I don't

1243
01:01:57,920 --> 01:01:59,560
Speaker 3: know if they drop or blitz one make it into

1244
01:01:59,600 --> 01:02:04,000
Speaker 3: cover three. But Donegal destroys quarters. So to me, I'm

1245
01:02:04,000 --> 01:02:06,680
Speaker 3: going over in this game. Potentially a San Diego State

1246
01:02:06,680 --> 01:02:09,200
Speaker 3: team total over. But the over now makes more sense

1247
01:02:09,280 --> 01:02:12,520
Speaker 3: because if Northern Illinois is running Cover three and they

1248
01:02:12,520 --> 01:02:14,960
Speaker 3: have a defensive coordinator last year of Fresno that knows

1249
01:02:15,000 --> 01:02:18,760
Speaker 3: that those are quick turnovers, those are chances for more possessions.

1250
01:02:18,800 --> 01:02:22,560
Speaker 3: More possessions mean more points. More possessions mean more Donegal bombs.

1251
01:02:22,880 --> 01:02:25,479
Speaker 3: I like the over here, so I'm gonna I'm gonna

1252
01:02:25,520 --> 01:02:27,520
Speaker 3: hit over forty seven for a half unit. We'll see

1253
01:02:27,520 --> 01:02:27,960
Speaker 3: where it goes.

1254
01:02:28,400 --> 01:02:31,800
Speaker 2: Donegal does have some turnovers coming as well. Woo pick

1255
01:02:32,080 --> 01:02:35,560
Speaker 2: suy absolute, dumpster fined, dumpster fine.

1256
01:02:35,600 --> 01:02:36,919
Speaker 3: I don't know how we win a game the rest

1257
01:02:36,920 --> 01:02:39,080
Speaker 3: of the year. Just flow a program up. Give us

1258
01:02:39,080 --> 01:02:39,840
Speaker 3: a death sentence.

1259
01:02:40,280 --> 01:02:42,640
Speaker 1: Collins talking razorback football.

1260
01:02:43,720 --> 01:02:48,240
Speaker 2: Auburn at Arkansas. I played Arkansas. No you disagree?

1261
01:02:48,440 --> 01:02:50,320
Speaker 3: I kind of like Auburn. You wanna go ahead to

1262
01:02:50,360 --> 01:02:53,760
Speaker 3: add against my hogs and tailing. No one's stopping tailing.

1263
01:02:55,040 --> 01:02:57,840
Speaker 2: So why do you like Auburn? Auburn is dead. I

1264
01:02:57,840 --> 01:03:01,440
Speaker 2: think this season is over. You're telling me Arkansas still cares.

1265
01:03:01,680 --> 01:03:04,600
Speaker 2: The Trino, still him fired up. They knew this offense

1266
01:03:04,720 --> 01:03:07,600
Speaker 2: is electric, it's the top five offense in the country.

1267
01:03:07,720 --> 01:03:10,640
Speaker 2: The Auburn offense is broken. They might go to Ashton

1268
01:03:10,720 --> 01:03:13,840
Speaker 2: Daniels here. If Jackson Arnold isn't going well after all

1269
01:03:13,880 --> 01:03:16,520
Speaker 2: the bad calls that went against Auburn, I think they quit,

1270
01:03:16,600 --> 01:03:19,800
Speaker 2: Like why they just lost four close games to ranked teams.

1271
01:03:19,800 --> 01:03:22,080
Speaker 2: Now they got to go to the Jefferson Pilot kickoff

1272
01:03:22,080 --> 01:03:24,680
Speaker 2: at Arkansas that, by the way, they lost their stud

1273
01:03:24,720 --> 01:03:27,400
Speaker 2: center for the season, was u too.

1274
01:03:27,320 --> 01:03:30,040
Speaker 3: Let's talk about that. So I told you camp Ball's out.

1275
01:03:30,080 --> 01:03:32,480
Speaker 3: Who's the nose that does everything for the line? Now

1276
01:03:32,560 --> 01:03:34,080
Speaker 3: he's out, right.

1277
01:03:34,000 --> 01:03:35,800
Speaker 2: But they have the one of the other guys who

1278
01:03:35,840 --> 01:03:37,200
Speaker 2: was out last week will be back to help with

1279
01:03:37,240 --> 01:03:41,200
Speaker 2: the death at least. But Lou was out last week

1280
01:03:41,440 --> 01:03:44,120
Speaker 2: and it was noticeably different. They went with a seven.

1281
01:03:44,200 --> 01:03:46,640
Speaker 2: He's one of two seventeen year olds in college football

1282
01:03:46,680 --> 01:03:48,280
Speaker 2: that's gonna play all year as a seventeen year olds

1283
01:03:48,400 --> 01:03:52,280
Speaker 2: seventeen year old freshman. Or they might change it up

1284
01:03:52,280 --> 01:03:53,880
Speaker 2: because it didn't go well last week and move one

1285
01:03:53,920 --> 01:03:57,040
Speaker 2: of their tackles to center. And then so this whole

1286
01:03:57,080 --> 01:03:59,880
Speaker 2: operation gets messed up. The offense is just bad, and

1287
01:04:00,120 --> 01:04:02,280
Speaker 2: I just don't think they can keep up. Arkansas's gonna

1288
01:04:02,280 --> 01:04:05,000
Speaker 2: score on anybody. Yeah, Taylor Green can buy time. The

1289
01:04:05,000 --> 01:04:08,480
Speaker 2: Auburn secondary is gettable. I think Arkansas still cares, not

1290
01:04:08,520 --> 01:04:11,960
Speaker 2: sure Auburn does. Ashton Daniels is not the answer. I

1291
01:04:11,960 --> 01:04:13,760
Speaker 2: think Hugh Freeze has lost the locker room.

1292
01:04:13,800 --> 01:04:17,120
Speaker 3: And this is really so My problem is is that

1293
01:04:17,120 --> 01:04:19,960
Speaker 3: Auburn's number one nationally in defensive stuff right and line

1294
01:04:20,000 --> 01:04:24,600
Speaker 3: yards right, But Arkansas is not really trying to pound

1295
01:04:24,600 --> 01:04:27,080
Speaker 3: the ABC gap because it's all about Taylor Green.

1296
01:04:26,920 --> 01:04:29,520
Speaker 2: Making a traditional running attack, right.

1297
01:04:29,400 --> 01:04:31,600
Speaker 3: And and so that's where I'm kind of like, yeah,

1298
01:04:31,640 --> 01:04:33,320
Speaker 3: I think Arkansas is going to score their points. The

1299
01:04:33,320 --> 01:04:35,680
Speaker 3: problem is they keep losing all these games by three points,

1300
01:04:35,720 --> 01:04:38,760
Speaker 3: and Patrino's like, that's a good point too. I mean,

1301
01:04:38,920 --> 01:04:41,640
Speaker 3: I mean, Petrino's hot, pissed, and Hugh Freeze may be

1302
01:04:41,720 --> 01:04:43,840
Speaker 3: dealing with the corpse in the locker room. So I

1303
01:04:43,880 --> 01:04:46,240
Speaker 3: haven't placed any money on this game. I just can't

1304
01:04:46,280 --> 01:04:48,040
Speaker 3: get over the numbers that Auburn has as a rush

1305
01:04:48,080 --> 01:04:52,040
Speaker 3: defense as a unit. But then again, Taylor's like Taylor

1306
01:04:52,120 --> 01:04:54,720
Speaker 3: played for in another uniform, he'd be it's something that

1307
01:04:54,760 --> 01:04:56,600
Speaker 3: was playoff bound, he'd be Heisman Trophy bound.

1308
01:04:56,840 --> 01:04:57,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, I'm.

1309
01:04:57,760 --> 01:05:01,520
Speaker 3: Gonna let's do it. What's the cheapest money line out there?

1310
01:05:02,520 --> 01:05:03,240
Speaker 2: Money line on there?

1311
01:05:04,320 --> 01:05:05,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's do it.

1312
01:05:05,560 --> 01:05:07,360
Speaker 2: Arkansas has been on the agree board two weeks in

1313
01:05:07,360 --> 01:05:08,600
Speaker 2: a row and they've cashed.

1314
01:05:08,640 --> 01:05:09,840
Speaker 3: But now they got to actually win.

1315
01:05:10,440 --> 01:05:11,680
Speaker 2: Don't keep up. Now they're gonna win.

1316
01:05:12,000 --> 01:05:14,800
Speaker 3: That's here, gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts.

1317
01:05:15,680 --> 01:05:19,320
Speaker 2: Let's all right. Friday Night lights, North Texas at Charlotte

1318
01:05:19,760 --> 01:05:23,200
Speaker 2: numbers kind of say Charlotte enough. They have so many injuries,

1319
01:05:23,400 --> 01:05:26,080
Speaker 2: Like I just helped by naked a little lower. But

1320
01:05:26,120 --> 01:05:28,280
Speaker 2: I'm not betting that game. Cal at Virginia Tech. I

1321
01:05:28,360 --> 01:05:30,360
Speaker 2: told everyone if you listen to the bout on Sunday

1322
01:05:30,840 --> 01:05:33,120
Speaker 2: at about Tech under three, I did not expect it

1323
01:05:33,160 --> 01:05:35,840
Speaker 2: to get out the six. At some spots. I might

1324
01:05:35,880 --> 01:05:37,840
Speaker 2: come back for a little bit because I nack now

1325
01:05:37,840 --> 01:05:39,200
Speaker 2: I show a little bit of value on Cal.

1326
01:05:39,920 --> 01:05:41,240
Speaker 3: I did Califorurn and a half. I didn't know it

1327
01:05:41,320 --> 01:05:42,200
Speaker 3: was going to get out this far.

1328
01:05:42,720 --> 01:05:45,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, and then Boise stayed at Nevada. I'm right on market.

1329
01:05:45,920 --> 01:05:49,400
Speaker 2: So that's about it. Uh, make sure you tune in

1330
01:05:49,440 --> 01:05:52,160
Speaker 2: the Sunday recap show. We'll we'll talk about these weekday games,

1331
01:05:53,080 --> 01:05:54,240
Speaker 2: anything anything to add there.

1332
01:05:54,400 --> 01:05:56,120
Speaker 3: I'm doing Cal. I'm gonna stick with the bet. I

1333
01:05:56,200 --> 01:05:57,880
Speaker 3: might I might buy out of it live, but I

1334
01:05:57,960 --> 01:06:00,840
Speaker 3: just can't like what's phill I have seen anything out

1335
01:06:00,840 --> 01:06:03,400
Speaker 3: of Philip Montgomery and Virginia Tech that makes me believe.

1336
01:06:03,400 --> 01:06:05,680
Speaker 3: But then again, this is Cal traveling three time zone.

1337
01:06:05,760 --> 01:06:08,680
Speaker 2: So yeah, vatak off a bye, They're gonna run the ball.

1338
01:06:08,680 --> 01:06:11,920
Speaker 2: That's a great spot. Yeah, favorite overdog.

1339
01:06:12,000 --> 01:06:13,520
Speaker 3: It's called the over the hag paraway.

1340
01:06:13,560 --> 01:06:17,120
Speaker 2: Alrighty mention mine earlier. Let's go with Oklahoma and you're

1341
01:06:17,120 --> 01:06:18,080
Speaker 2: going to Big ten Country.

1342
01:06:18,160 --> 01:06:20,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm taking Iowa in the Hawkeyes. I project this

1343
01:06:20,120 --> 01:06:22,080
Speaker 3: game at eleven. I don't think the number is there.

1344
01:06:22,120 --> 01:06:25,600
Speaker 3: Although before we started podcasting, DK got juiced, the board

1345
01:06:25,640 --> 01:06:29,000
Speaker 3: got juiced. Minnesota beat Purdue earlier this year. The twenty

1346
01:06:29,040 --> 01:06:32,720
Speaker 3: five percent post game win expectancy Nebraska is absolutely no show.

1347
01:06:32,760 --> 01:06:34,920
Speaker 3: They only had twenty seven percent of available yards and

1348
01:06:34,960 --> 01:06:37,760
Speaker 3: that was on Nebraska, not really on the Minnesota d

1349
01:06:38,560 --> 01:06:40,960
Speaker 3: that Nebraska is under four yards per play and the

1350
01:06:41,000 --> 01:06:43,520
Speaker 3: Mini defenses outside the top one hundred tackling. I mean,

1351
01:06:43,520 --> 01:06:45,520
Speaker 3: that's really poor effort. I don't know if that's because

1352
01:06:45,600 --> 01:06:48,560
Speaker 3: Rule has off, you know, off field things going on

1353
01:06:48,640 --> 01:06:52,240
Speaker 3: about his next position. But Nebraska no show like twenty

1354
01:06:52,280 --> 01:06:55,600
Speaker 3: seven percent available yards the national average forty four. Minnesota

1355
01:06:55,640 --> 01:06:59,440
Speaker 3: has zero EPA, bottom fifteen rushing pass Iow's top ten,

1356
01:06:59,480 --> 01:07:02,640
Speaker 3: and defensive quality drives. Minnesot is not going anywhere. Iowa's

1357
01:07:02,680 --> 01:07:04,240
Speaker 3: run game is humming right now.

1358
01:07:04,400 --> 01:07:07,040
Speaker 2: All right there, it is Oklahoma and Iowa. And finally

1359
01:07:07,120 --> 01:07:13,040
Speaker 2: we have our underdog money line parlay turning good weekends

1360
01:07:13,280 --> 01:07:14,920
Speaker 2: into great weekends.

1361
01:07:15,360 --> 01:07:17,920
Speaker 1: It's time for the money line parlay.

1362
01:07:18,880 --> 01:07:20,640
Speaker 2: This is one of my other favorite bets on the board,

1363
01:07:21,040 --> 01:07:23,280
Speaker 2: but we'll go moneyline here. Wake Forest is going to

1364
01:07:23,320 --> 01:07:27,480
Speaker 2: beat your SMU stangs. SMU is a fraud people.

1365
01:07:27,880 --> 01:07:29,360
Speaker 3: Why are they mine? It was last year?

1366
01:07:29,800 --> 01:07:32,720
Speaker 2: I know, but I'm just giving them, give you more shit.

1367
01:07:33,920 --> 01:07:36,880
Speaker 2: SMU hasn't been impressive in any game this year besides

1368
01:07:36,960 --> 01:07:39,240
Speaker 2: last week against a broken and beat up Clemson team.

1369
01:07:39,560 --> 01:07:42,840
Speaker 2: Second straight road game on the East coast. Wake Forest

1370
01:07:42,920 --> 01:07:46,320
Speaker 2: coming off a bye will be healthier. The wake Forest defense.

1371
01:07:46,680 --> 01:07:49,680
Speaker 2: I dug into them deep most underrated unit in the country.

1372
01:07:49,720 --> 01:07:54,000
Speaker 2: I think Hayston as them playing an elite level. They

1373
01:07:54,000 --> 01:07:56,520
Speaker 2: should have picked off Georgia Tech in the same spot

1374
01:07:56,520 --> 01:07:59,920
Speaker 2: earlier this year. They're gonna get SMU give me the

1375
01:08:00,720 --> 01:08:01,360
Speaker 2: where you going?

1376
01:08:01,920 --> 01:08:06,960
Speaker 3: I adopted my dog in Tulsa. Actually in Sky I

1377
01:08:07,000 --> 01:08:09,560
Speaker 3: took right outside Tulsa, So we're gonna do an underdog

1378
01:08:09,840 --> 01:08:13,680
Speaker 3: of Tulsa. Listen, Lamb. I love Trey Lamb. I think

1379
01:08:13,680 --> 01:08:15,360
Speaker 3: we've talked about him a couple times on the pod.

1380
01:08:15,640 --> 01:08:17,760
Speaker 3: Tulsa's tackling at a top thirty grate right now. Their

1381
01:08:17,760 --> 01:08:20,439
Speaker 3: past rush is in the top twenty. Temple has been

1382
01:08:20,680 --> 01:08:23,920
Speaker 3: horrific in rushing the ball. They're outside the top one hundred.

1383
01:08:24,000 --> 01:08:26,080
Speaker 3: Things like lineyards stuff, right, I don't expect them to

1384
01:08:26,080 --> 01:08:29,080
Speaker 3: get anything going against this Tulsa defense. And Tulsa really

1385
01:08:29,120 --> 01:08:31,360
Speaker 3: on offense, like there's not a lot of success right here.

1386
01:08:31,360 --> 01:08:33,080
Speaker 3: We're not having a lot of methodical drives, but they

1387
01:08:33,120 --> 01:08:36,160
Speaker 3: live on rush explosives. Temple is one of the worst

1388
01:08:36,240 --> 01:08:38,080
Speaker 3: run des in the nation. They're one hundred and thirty

1389
01:08:38,080 --> 01:08:40,960
Speaker 3: fourth in lineyards. I do think Tulsa is going to

1390
01:08:40,960 --> 01:08:43,559
Speaker 3: have scoring opportunities or they're just going to house it

1391
01:08:43,640 --> 01:08:46,519
Speaker 3: on the ground. Take some Dominic Richardson props if you

1392
01:08:46,560 --> 01:08:49,960
Speaker 3: can find it, Just pray that Baylor Haynes, their quarterback

1393
01:08:50,000 --> 01:08:51,600
Speaker 3: Tulsa just doesn't put it on the carpet. He's I

1394
01:08:51,600 --> 01:08:54,519
Speaker 3: think he's putting fumbled like five times. But yeah, Tulsa.

1395
01:08:54,560 --> 01:08:55,679
Speaker 3: I love Tulsa this week.

1396
01:08:56,080 --> 01:08:57,799
Speaker 2: All right, as soon as we start talking about Dominic

1397
01:08:57,880 --> 01:09:00,920
Speaker 2: Richardson props, that means it's probably time and the show.

1398
01:09:02,320 --> 01:09:05,719
Speaker 2: Thanks to you. Oh, we got a recap by the way, Trash, Sparty,

1399
01:09:06,360 --> 01:09:09,960
Speaker 2: Fau and Cats head to head. I'm up six to

1400
01:09:10,040 --> 01:09:13,320
Speaker 2: three this year, fourteen to ten. Overall, we're going head

1401
01:09:13,320 --> 01:09:17,479
Speaker 2: to head on Vanderbilt, Missouri, Iowa State WYU, and Michigan

1402
01:09:17,520 --> 01:09:22,360
Speaker 2: State Michigan. The agrees South Carolina, Baylor, Arkansas, and a

1403
01:09:22,360 --> 01:09:27,080
Speaker 2: little moneyline parlay of Oklahoma and Washington. Thanks to Colin

1404
01:09:27,200 --> 01:09:30,040
Speaker 2: for joining me, as always, thanks to our producer David

1405
01:09:30,040 --> 01:09:31,439
Speaker 2: on the back end. Most importantly, thanks to all of

1406
01:09:31,439 --> 01:09:34,960
Speaker 2: you for tuning in. Make sure call in voicemails, yell

1407
01:09:35,000 --> 01:09:36,840
Speaker 2: at us, yell about whatever you want. We'll be on

1408
01:09:36,840 --> 01:09:39,040
Speaker 2: the recap show and Sunday nine to five nine Bad Beat.

1409
01:09:39,080 --> 01:09:40,400
Speaker 2: Make sure you check out the group of five guys

1410
01:09:40,439 --> 01:09:43,000
Speaker 2: their episode's already out live show ten thirty am Eastern

1411
01:09:43,040 --> 01:09:46,720
Speaker 2: on Saturday. Recap as I mentioned, will be out on

1412
01:09:46,840 --> 01:09:49,519
Speaker 2: Sunday and then we do it all again. Group of

1413
01:09:49,520 --> 01:09:52,000
Speaker 2: five guys Wednesdays, by the way, Weekday mactionall be here

1414
01:09:52,040 --> 01:09:54,240
Speaker 2: before we know it. But thanks again for tuning in.

1415
01:09:54,800 --> 01:09:57,800
Speaker 2: The slate doesn't look too sexy on paper, and you

1416
01:09:57,880 --> 01:10:00,559
Speaker 2: know what that means. There's going to be chaos. Thanks

1417
01:10:00,600 --> 01:10:02,800
Speaker 2: again for tune again. Subscribe on subscribe you another drill

1418
01:10:02,800 --> 01:10:04,600
Speaker 2: who pleas start you, offs us out catch you all

1419
01:10:04,640 --> 01:10:05,439
Speaker 2: Saturday cheers.

1420
01:10:05,560 --> 01:10:06,240
Speaker 3: Peace Out.

1421
01:10:23,720 --> 01:10:27,200
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1422
01:10:27,600 --> 01:10:30,439
Speaker 4: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1423
01:10:30,720 --> 01:10:33,360
Speaker 4: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1424
01:10:33,400 --> 01:10:34,240
Speaker 4: hundred gambler