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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: All Right, here we go fifteen cuny twenty five, thirty

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Speaker 2: thirty five, forty forty five fifty and the kick as.

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Speaker 1: Block the college football world stundod bye, Oh my goodness,

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Speaker 1: he's stumbled and football, the lateral turn, the counter on

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Speaker 1: the inside, don't you believe not?

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Speaker 2: The table up the field to night. It's not the

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Speaker 2: side of the dog.

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Speaker 1: In the fight.

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Speaker 3: It's the side of the fight in the roll.

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Speaker 2: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets

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Speaker 2: on Campus Podcast presented by Bett MGM. This is the

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Speaker 2: Week five college football betting preview. I'm stucky and with

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Speaker 2: me as always is Colin Wilson. It's a beautiful, beautiful

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Speaker 2: card starting right at noon. The noon slate is amazing.

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Speaker 2: It's the start for me a real official college football

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Speaker 2: From here on out. It looks like everything's going to

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Speaker 2: be cleared out by the time these games kick off

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Speaker 2: on Saturdays. From a weather perspective, anything you're eyeing from

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Speaker 2: a weather standpoint, or any game, it looks like it's

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Speaker 2: going to be really impacted before we dive in. Here

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Speaker 2: to a beautiful, glorious Week five.

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Speaker 3: I think the two big ones that were on my

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Speaker 3: mind was the Coastal game, and that one was a

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Speaker 3: really tough one because Coastal is a triple option, you know,

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Speaker 3: base to get outside the pockets. Grayson McCall runs that

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Speaker 3: like Grayson McCall has a little bit of a banged

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Speaker 3: up ankle. That was a really tough game to handicap,

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Speaker 3: not just from a weather perspective and keeping on top

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Speaker 3: of that, but although the wind gusts about two days

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Speaker 3: ago were predicted to be fifty miles an hour for

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Speaker 3: Clemson Menci State, those wind gusts are now been tailed

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Speaker 3: down below thirty miles an hour and sustained wins around

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Speaker 3: fourteen miles an hour. There is going to be a

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Speaker 3: lot of pre sip in that game, so I think

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Speaker 3: it puts an emphasis on tackling. So we'll get to

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Speaker 3: the game later.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna start with Friday Night Lights. Got a pretty

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Speaker 2: good Friday night slate. But before we do, just want

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Speaker 2: to give a heads up to our listeners out there.

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Speaker 2: Action as a new live show called green Dot Daily

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Speaker 2: Quick Roundup of the day's betting that airs every weekday

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Speaker 2: at noon on the Action app and our social channels.

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Speaker 2: You'll see Colin and I on there on Thursday and Fridays.

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Speaker 2: Chris Raybon our whole team swings by at some point

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Speaker 2: during the week to give their daily picks. We just

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Speaker 2: launched the podcast version of the show, with new shows

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Speaker 2: every weekday afternoon. Go up about one o'clock to be

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Speaker 2: sure to subscribe to the Green Dot Daily Podcast again.

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Speaker 2: The Green Dot Daily Podcast presented by our friends at

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Speaker 2: bet MGM. All right, let's get into Friday night lights.

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Speaker 3: Let's here, gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts.

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Speaker 2: Hey, let's go play some football. Let's start with the

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Speaker 2: marquee game Washington at UCLA. Ucla is a three point

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Speaker 2: home underdog.

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Speaker 3: Look, I.

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Speaker 2: Faded Washington in correctly last week, and I was as

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Speaker 2: high as anyone on Washington. But I think that this

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Speaker 2: game should be a coin flip. So I took the

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Speaker 2: three a three and a half like used to lay

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Speaker 2: down to plus three. Couple things in my handicap here.

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Speaker 2: Washington is very good. I love them coming into the year,

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Speaker 2: but I think that the love has gotten a little

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Speaker 2: out of hand. If you go back, you know, they

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Speaker 2: beat Kent State. Okay, they beat an FCS team, they

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Speaker 2: beat Michigan State. Have we seen what Michigan State has

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Speaker 2: looked like. So that win, which was what they won

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Speaker 2: by eleven and Jade Green didn't play for Michigan State.

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Speaker 2: Michigan State just got absolutely obliterated by Minnesota. Didn't They

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Speaker 2: haven't looked great all year, so that win doesn't mean

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Speaker 2: as much to me. And then last week against Stanford,

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Speaker 2: I didn't upgrade Washington that much because that that game

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Speaker 2: came down to an extenuating circumstance during the week. Late

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Speaker 2: in the week, Stanford's right tackle got ruled out. You know,

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Speaker 2: I don't usually think there's a huge drop off between

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Speaker 2: offensive linemen. It's not going to impact the spread. That

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Speaker 2: did their backup right tackle and sanf get up like

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Speaker 2: eight sacks under pressure. I had arguably the worst game

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Speaker 2: for a right tackle in the history of college football.

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Speaker 2: He finished with a pass blocking grade of one one.

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Speaker 2: He got abused. It changed the entire game with that

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Speaker 2: right tackle being out. I wish I knew that, but again,

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Speaker 2: that's all they capitalized on. So I don't think that

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Speaker 2: the wins at Washington to show and have been as

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Speaker 2: impressive as they might have seen at the time. UCLA

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Speaker 2: mobile quarterback can give this defensive scheme some problems. I

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Speaker 2: think that'll be the difference here. I think it'll be

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Speaker 2: a close game. I think it's basically a coin flip.

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Speaker 2: I think UCLA is going to find a way to win.

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Speaker 2: But I'll gladly take the three radio grade.

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Speaker 3: Oh yeah, oh yeah, I'm on UCLA all the way.

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Speaker 3: I think they're gonna win outright. I project this Washington

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Speaker 3: minus two. But you mentioned the Michigan State game, Like

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Speaker 3: Michigan State was missing two of their key defenders in

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Speaker 3: the secondary. Jaydon Reid didn't make the flight. So you

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Speaker 3: know a little bit of fools goal there with what

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Speaker 3: Washington having to deal with, and now they're going to

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Speaker 3: go on the road for the first time this year

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Speaker 3: and their defense is going to have to stop Zach

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Speaker 3: Charbonnay Keegan Jones running the ball and the scrambling attempts

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Speaker 3: of Dorian Thompson Robinson. And you know, Michigan State was

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Speaker 3: able to put a scare into that back door number

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Speaker 3: because you know, Washington, it wasn't just because of the rush.

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Speaker 3: Peyton Thorne was able to throw into that secondary. That's

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Speaker 3: seventy first against coverage. So you know DTR's big time

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Speaker 3: throw rate is one of the lowest of his career

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Speaker 3: right now at one point eight percent. But I have

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Speaker 3: to ask, like, is that by design You've played Colorado

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Speaker 3: South Maamma Bowling Green? Has there been things left off

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Speaker 3: tape waiting for this Friday night game for Washington come

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Speaker 3: to town. His adjusted completion percentage rate is twelve percent

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Speaker 3: higher than his previous career best. So I'm wondering if

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Speaker 3: shots downfield or some things that we haven't seen from

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Speaker 3: the Chill Kelly playbook just haven't come out yet. But

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Speaker 3: the rushing attack is something Washington's going to have to

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Speaker 3: deal with. This is the toughest defensive front for Washington

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Speaker 3: that they've had to face. The UCLA has had eleven sacks.

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Speaker 3: That's in the top twenty five right now. So I

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Speaker 3: am all about the Bruins right here with two head

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Speaker 3: coaches that just faced each other last year when Fresno

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Speaker 3: went down and beat UCLA.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. One of the uglier games on the slate,

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Speaker 2: New Mexico catching fourteen against unlv U and LV four

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Speaker 2: and zero against the spread. By the way, home favorites

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Speaker 2: with a two touchdown plus average cover margin that are

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Speaker 2: undefeated against the spread. UNLV fits down mold, so does JMU.

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Speaker 2: Minnesota and Arkansas state home favorites that fit that mold

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Speaker 2: in weeks four and five are twenty one, forty one

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Speaker 2: and four thirty three percent against the spread, failing to

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Speaker 2: cover by an average margin of about six points. The

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Speaker 2: only situation that's popped up so far this year, Sarahcuse

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Speaker 2: against Virginia obviously didn't cover. So I think it's a

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Speaker 2: good cell high spot on UNLV New Mexico. Their offense

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Speaker 2: is dreadful, but their defense is really good. They'll be

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Speaker 2: able to come up with a good defensive game plan,

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Speaker 2: low total, stay within two touchdowns here. I think UNLV

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Speaker 2: has gotten a little bit too much love. Do you agree?

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Speaker 3: What you and LV done is legit? And Marcus Arroyo

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Speaker 3: down there did never use the pieces that he actually had,

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Speaker 3: Like Doug Brumfield was sharing snaps all last year. He

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Speaker 3: couldn't get healthy, and when he was healthy, he wasn't

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Speaker 3: being utilized the way that he needed to be. So

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Speaker 3: we have new offensive coordinator Nick Holtz there four to

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Speaker 3: zero against the spread because of the ground attack, you know,

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Speaker 3: to put it in perspective, U and LV had three

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Speaker 3: point three yards per carry. Against the col defense. That's

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Speaker 3: what Notre Dame put up against Cal. So you know

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Speaker 3: we're at least at that kind of level with a

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Speaker 3: rushing attack. And Aiden Robbins has just been unstoppable three

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Speaker 3: point nine yards after contact. He's already created seventeen missed

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Speaker 3: tackles this year. And Brumfield's healthy. That is a matchup

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Speaker 3: problem with his wheels, and he's throwing better than he

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Speaker 3: ever has in his life. Eight touchdowns to one interception.

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Speaker 3: I mean, we've never seen that out of his arm before,

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Speaker 3: and the question is can New Mexico stop any of this?

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Speaker 3: They are great in defending the pass eighteenth and coverage

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Speaker 3: grading their twentieth in Havoc. They have been forcing some

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Speaker 3: offenses to change the things up, but you know that

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Speaker 3: Havoc number is assisted by seven force fumbles and a

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Speaker 3: high mark in PBUs. They're not really playing in the

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Speaker 3: backfield and doing anything against the rush of their opponents.

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Speaker 3: And the Lobos are one hundred and twenty seventh and

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Speaker 3: tackling that is not going to be good in an

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Speaker 3: open field against Brumfield and Aiden Robbins. So you know,

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Speaker 3: both teams are excellent defensively and finishing drives, so I

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Speaker 3: can see why the total is so low, especially with

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Speaker 3: what the pace is going to be. But I think

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Speaker 3: UNLV team total over is the way to go. I

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Speaker 3: agree the fourteen and a half too much. Fourteen too

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Speaker 3: much is a game I make eleven and a half.

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Speaker 3: It feels like backdoor New Mexico territory. But at the

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Speaker 3: same time, I can't ignore the fact that what UNLV

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Speaker 3: is doing on the ground, especially with Brumfield, who we

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Speaker 3: bet on every week last year, it's for real. But

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Speaker 3: you know, we'll see what they can do against New Mexico.

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Speaker 3: But the spread is extremely inflated.

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Speaker 2: Come dumpster diving with me on the Lobos if you're listening,

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Speaker 2: and we're doing a lot more dumpster diving on Saturday.

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Speaker 2: We'll get to that in a minute. Another game, want

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Speaker 2: to cover Friday night quickly. San Diego State goes to

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Speaker 2: Boise State. Boise State six six and a half point favorite. Here,

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Speaker 2: total thirty nine. I faded Boise State last Friday night.

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Speaker 2: I am on them here. I'm laying six with Boise

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Speaker 2: If you can believe it or not, look this. They

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Speaker 2: have a new offensive coordinator in here, Tim Plows a disaster.

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Speaker 2: They bring in dirt Cutter, the savior who started like

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Speaker 2: the run of Boise State back in ninety eight. He

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Speaker 2: was golfing. They somehow got him to get off the

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Speaker 2: golf course and come into be an offensive coordinator. They're

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Speaker 2: gonna start, I mean Backmyer Hank back by a transferred.

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Speaker 2: They're gonna start the kid Green who has wheels. I

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Speaker 2: think the offense is gonna have a whole new look

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Speaker 2: something San Diego State's not ready for. The Boise State

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Speaker 2: front seven has been generally really good this year, and

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Speaker 2: San Diego State can't throw the ball a lick. So

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Speaker 2: I think Boise State there's a lot of optimism now

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Speaker 2: with the new offensive coordinator, new quarterback. I think you

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Speaker 2: might see some tempo, some new looks, and there's just

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Speaker 2: juice now and they're a little bit healthier. And this

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Speaker 2: San Diego State offense is terrible. I'm laying it. It's scary,

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Speaker 2: but I'm playing Boise here minus six. The only thing

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Speaker 2: I'm going to ask you is you are undefeated on

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Speaker 2: the totals for us. You haven't got one right yet.

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Speaker 2: So the fades of San Diego State totals are still

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Speaker 2: flawlessly intact. Over or under here.

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Speaker 3: Oh you don't going over right? I mean, but the

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Speaker 3: problem is I'm waiting on the right number. Right, go ahead,

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Speaker 3: write it down. The problem is I'm waiting on the

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Speaker 3: right number. Thirty nine, you know, no, thanks, thirty seven,

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Speaker 3: thirty eight. Yeah, I can be talked into that. And

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Speaker 3: I think really what you mentioned was is that Taylor

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Speaker 3: Green and what he does on the ground, that is

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Speaker 3: something that you know, San Diego State is going to

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Speaker 3: have to be ready for. We have not seen him

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Speaker 3: throw a pass since Week one against Oraent State. He

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Speaker 3: had two turnover worthy plays. Maybe that's the reason he

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Speaker 3: hasn't thrown a past since. But his scrambling against the

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Speaker 3: Beavers is notable. He had a seventy four yard touchdown

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Speaker 3: in the third quarter or something that you know USC

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Speaker 3: was incapable of doing last week. So you know, the

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Speaker 3: San Diego State defense, they're kind of middling against the rush.

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Speaker 3: They're one hundred and fifteenth and tackling, and that really,

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Speaker 3: you know, kind of points me in the direction of

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Speaker 3: the over chance Bell is gonna come back out.

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Speaker 2: That's enough, that's enough, that's all. You only get a minute.

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Speaker 2: You only get a minute, because no one needs to

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Speaker 2: waste time hearing about all.

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Speaker 3: Right, let me just let me just say, Jalen Armstead

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Speaker 3: for San Diego State is averaging eight point one yards

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Speaker 3: after contact. That is unbelievable. This this is an over.

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Speaker 3: I'm just waiting for the right number.

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Speaker 1: As techovers.

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Speaker 2: You went under in the first game that went way over.

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Speaker 2: You've gone over ever since, and the games have gone

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Speaker 2: way under. I guess eventually of San Diego State game

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Speaker 2: will go over. If you keep saying over, they're due

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Speaker 2: to maybe get an overtime game eventually, but I hope

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Speaker 2: this doesn't go overtime. Some Lane six if you, by

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Speaker 2: the way, a couple other games on Friday night utsa

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Speaker 2: Middle Tennessee Colin. You'll cover that later in another segment

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Speaker 2: to Lane Houston. Check out the group of five deep dive.

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Speaker 2: They did a really good job breaking this game down.

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Speaker 2: And if you want a fade, we have a Mike

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Speaker 2: Ianella fader on the voicemail nine found nine bad beat.

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Speaker 2: By the way, make sure you check that out. You

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Speaker 2: can fade Ianella. He really likes a side in this game.

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Speaker 2: But now it's time to move on to the marquee

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Speaker 2: games of the weekend. It's another fabulous weekend of college football.

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Speaker 2: Let's check out the marquee matchups we'll all end up

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Speaker 2: betting for Week five. All right, let's start with an

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Speaker 2: ugly one. Michigan Iowa Iowa an eleven point home dog

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Speaker 2: over under forty two. This game is on Fox. It's

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Speaker 2: the Big Noon Kickoff or whatever they call it.

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Speaker 3: Dais by Foods Big Foods.

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Speaker 2: If you recall Michigan, much of my chagrin when they

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Speaker 2: were running up the score, albeit for a legit reason

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Speaker 2: after the fact, they found out against Iowa last year

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Speaker 2: in the Big Ten Championship. They destroyed them by the

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Speaker 2: way Iowa at home. There's like Kinnick magic there. I

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Speaker 2: think six and one against the spread against top seven

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Speaker 2: teams over the past ten years pulled off a few upsets,

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Speaker 2: almost a few others. And since two thousand and eight

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Speaker 2: there's been a top five team has gone down forty

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Speaker 2: times to an unranked team. Four of those forty have

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Speaker 2: been Iowa pulling off the upset. Why is there? You know,

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Speaker 2: obviously they have a great home field to manage, and

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Speaker 2: they do all the little things right, the turnovers, the penalties,

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Speaker 2: the you know, they're not going to beat themselves generally, speaking,

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Speaker 2: and the games are low scoring, slower, more variants. All

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Speaker 2: of those are usually a recipe for success to pull

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Speaker 2: off an upset in front of a raucous crap. My

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Speaker 2: problem with i when I show a little bit of

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Speaker 2: value on this on the Hawkeyes here, a problem with

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Speaker 2: Iowa was they made they kicked a fifty five yard

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Speaker 2: field goal and banked it in last week to ruin

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Speaker 2: the under. But my other problem with Iowa here is

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Speaker 2: what do they do really well? They don't. They take

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Speaker 2: care of the ball, and their special teams are elite.

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Speaker 2: We talked about this going into the Big Ten Championship

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Speaker 2: last year. Michigan special teams are also elite and they

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Speaker 2: take care of the ball generally, is what we talked

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Speaker 2: about last year. So is that does that make this

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Speaker 2: a really bad matchup for Iowa? We know, Look, Michigan

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Speaker 2: had a bunch of cupcakes, didn't look as great against Maryland.

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Speaker 2: We know who Iowa is. Their offense blows and their

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Speaker 2: defense is elite. If you look at like their statistical profiles,

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Speaker 2: all green on the defensive side and all red, it's

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Speaker 2: like bottom five offense, top five defense. So I lean

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Speaker 2: Iowa here, but I'm afraid that like, Michigan's not gonna

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Speaker 2: make mistakes. Their special teams are just as good, and

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Speaker 2: Iowa kind of needs those hidden points penalties too. Both

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Speaker 2: teams are pretty good in that department. What do you

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Speaker 2: see here?

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Speaker 3: And forty one? You're going to buy the over? Yeah,

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Speaker 3: a full preview coming out on Action and you know

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Speaker 3: spoiler alert, Iowa and the Over is going to be

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Speaker 3: the play, but you're gonna want to get.

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Speaker 2: The last first ten minutes of the show. You're giving

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Speaker 2: away San Diego State and Iowa over unreal.

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Speaker 3: Michigan has stated what they want to do is they

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Speaker 3: just want to run the ball relentlessly with Blake Krum.

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Speaker 3: Now we don't have word on whether Donovan Edwards is

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Speaker 3: going to play, but if it's just Blake Corm, they're

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Speaker 3: going to be able to load up the box and

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Speaker 3: go after him because I don't expect a lot of

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Speaker 3: passing going on. And you know, Iowa is one of

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Speaker 3: the best teams in the nation on defense and preventing

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Speaker 3: explosive plays or just they're not going to allow it happened.

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Speaker 3: So you know, I don't have any love for the

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Speaker 3: Iowa offense, and Michigan is the best coverage team in

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Speaker 3: the nation. So I'm not expecting, you know, any miracles

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Speaker 3: here out of Brian Furnz and this Hawkeye's offense. But

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Speaker 3: but Iowa is really good at taking mistakes on defensive

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Speaker 3: special teams and turning them into touchdowns or at least

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Speaker 3: getting into scoring position to get some field goals up

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Speaker 3: in the air. And JJ McCarthy fumbled twice against Maryland.

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Speaker 3: He had four fumbles last year in just twenty two

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Speaker 3: rushing attempts. And this is just a real issue that

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Speaker 3: Iowa can turn into quick touchdown. This Michigan offensive line

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Speaker 3: is sixtieth and pass blocking. JJ McCarthy's gonna get harassed,

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Speaker 3: could turn into scrambles. Ball could come out, and you

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Speaker 3: know they're gonna be havoc in passing down. So similarly,

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Speaker 3: you know Iowa was one hundred and third and havoc allowed.

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Speaker 3: There could be some quick Michigan scores here. I mean,

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Speaker 3: I mean there's I was letting people play in the backfield.

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Speaker 3: I always got interceptions, and it's not like they're clean

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Speaker 3: on offense either. So JJ McCarthy, that Iowa offensive line

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Speaker 3: havoc allowed is an issue for both of these teams

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Speaker 3: that could turn into quick scores. That's probably the formula

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Speaker 3: to get this number to go over. Now, forty one

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Speaker 3: is the most is the most key in this range

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Speaker 3: by far. There are some forty one and a halves

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Speaker 3: here stuck in I talk. I've already bought, you know,

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Speaker 3: a little bit of juice on it and made it

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Speaker 3: forty one. I do like the over more than I

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Speaker 3: like Iowa, but I like them both.

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Speaker 2: I might play I was small here small and it's

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Speaker 2: a nice new and sweat because I do show value

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Speaker 2: on them. But they're gonna need to get help. That

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Speaker 2: usually happens in Kinnick. So but just Michigan hasn't been

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Speaker 2: mistake prone. But you know, last weekend they made a couple.

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Speaker 2: So maybe, But I do think that there's a little

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Speaker 2: bit of value on eye on this number and this spot.

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Speaker 2: They've almost always come through. There's kindick magic. Even last

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Speaker 2: year when I had them against Penn State, Penn State's

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Speaker 2: about the win by fifty Sean Clifford gets hurt, like

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Speaker 2: something always happens. And I was going to be like

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Speaker 2: down four with the ball and then hand it all

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Speaker 2: four times and Michigan niels it away. All right, So

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Speaker 2: let's move on to our second market game today, also

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Speaker 2: at noon. Let's move to the SEC. Two ranked teams,

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Speaker 2: Kentucky at ole Miss, Almoss seven point favorite hear over

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Speaker 2: unders sitting around fifty three fifty three and a half.

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Speaker 2: By the way, one of the best bets that you

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Speaker 2: can make on the road. Coach on the road as

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Speaker 2: far as unders our concerned, Jimbo Fisher by far as

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Speaker 2: number one. Number two is Mark Stoops. And the interesting

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Speaker 2: thing about this game is I still don't know. I

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Speaker 2: don't still don't know. If we know who ole Miss

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Speaker 2: is now, they should get a couple key defenders back,

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Speaker 2: They should get healthier in the backfield. They might get

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Speaker 2: Robinson back at A bunch of their guys didn't play

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Speaker 2: last week. Ole Miss also has just been doing nothing

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Speaker 2: once they get a lead. They went up against Tulsa

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Speaker 2: and then did nothing against I had Troy and luckily

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Speaker 2: ole Miss said we're not going to do anything. So

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Speaker 2: I don't know if they're just not showing anything. But

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Speaker 2: it's a new quarterback. You would think they would have

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Speaker 2: want to get raps. It's a bunch of new players

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Speaker 2: across the board. On offensive defenses, I call them transfer you.

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Speaker 2: I think look, I like Ole Miss in this game

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Speaker 2: up if you can get below seven, I have been

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Speaker 2: low coming into the air on Kentucky. My mind has

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Speaker 2: not been changed at all. This is a team that

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Speaker 2: their offensive line is a disaster. It's a disaster. Look,

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Speaker 2: they went and beat Florida when Anthony Richardson just shit

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Speaker 2: the bed. They had a good defensive game plan and

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Speaker 2: we talked about how it's a bad matchup for Florida.

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Speaker 2: But you know, minam Ohio, they got lucky in that game.

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Speaker 2: That game was close, and then Northern Illinois against their

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Speaker 2: backup like that game was way too close for comfort.

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Speaker 2: Against Youngstown or throwing picks, they couldn't run the ball

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Speaker 2: against any of them. They are one hundred and twenty

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Speaker 2: third in EPA per rush, ninety fifth on early down EPA.

385
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Speaker 2: Like it's a it's bad this offense, Will Levis has

386
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Speaker 2: not been as advertised. They really missed Wandell Robinson. On

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Speaker 2: the flip side, they do get Chris Rodriguez back, how

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Speaker 2: effective will he be in his return? He should provide

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Speaker 2: a big boost to the rushing attack. I still don't

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Speaker 2: know if we know what this ole Miss offense is.

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Speaker 2: I think you know Kentucky's going to prevent the explosive play.

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Speaker 2: Ole Miss does the same, So I don't think you're

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Speaker 2: gonna see a lot of explosive plays in this game,

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Speaker 2: ole Miss. You know, I think Kentucky's really gonna lean

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Speaker 2: on the run.

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Speaker 3: I like Ole Miss.

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Speaker 2: I don't feel great about it. I do really like

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Speaker 2: the under Stoops unders. He had a quote on the road.

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Speaker 2: I think they want to take the crowd out of

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Speaker 2: this game, get back to their identity with Chris Rodriguez.

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Speaker 2: Stoops had a quote earlier this week. He said everyone's

402
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Speaker 2: asking about Rodriguez and the running game and how it's

403
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Speaker 2: not been good, and he said, oh, now everyone gives

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Speaker 2: a shit about the running game. I thought no one cares.

405
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Speaker 2: No one now now the running game is important. I

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Speaker 2: think Stoops wants to get back to hammering, running the

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Speaker 2: ball and defense in this game. Take the crowd out

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Speaker 2: of it. So I would look under here. I know

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Speaker 2: we got beat so hard on a defensive holding call

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Speaker 2: on Kentucky. I'm fourth down last week, and then the

411
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Speaker 2: nonoid put a touchdown into Hookahs. But I like the

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Speaker 2: under here. I think Kentucky is going to grind this down.

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Speaker 2: I'm still not sold on the Old Miss offense. Now,

414
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Speaker 2: they should be healthier in the backfield, but just from

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Speaker 2: what I've seen from Dart, it hasn't really been that impressive.

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Speaker 2: I know you've been higher on Kentucky than me all year.

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Speaker 2: So do you like the Do you like the cats

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Speaker 2: here catching seven? Well?

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Speaker 3: I definitely agree with you on the under The issue

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Speaker 3: is I want fifty five pretty bad. That was a number.

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Speaker 3: It cross through fifty five early in the week. I

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Speaker 3: was so obsessed with hurricane totals earlier in the week,

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Speaker 3: this one kind of flew by the radar. But fifty

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Speaker 3: five is the number that I'm aiming at. If I

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Speaker 3: have to wait till live to get under on it,

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Speaker 3: then I will. But I think, you know, Tulsa was

427
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Speaker 3: my best bet last week, and you know, Davis bring

428
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Speaker 3: It's injured and Brayln Braxton comes in and they don't

429
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Speaker 3: miss a beat. And I think the thing that popped

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00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:06,919
Speaker 3: out the most for me against the Old Miss defense

431
00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:09,080
Speaker 3: is at Tulsa game, two hundred and sixty two yards

432
00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:12,560
Speaker 3: on the ground, six point one yards per attempt. So

433
00:21:13,160 --> 00:21:15,800
Speaker 3: if Stoops wants to find a time to get this

434
00:21:16,320 --> 00:21:19,160
Speaker 3: running game going for Kentucky, This might be it because

435
00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:22,200
Speaker 3: right now Cavasier Smoke. You know, he's had two fumbles,

436
00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:24,600
Speaker 3: he's got middling ranks and yards after contact, just two

437
00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:27,480
Speaker 3: rushes that have gone over fifteen yards. So we'll see

438
00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:29,800
Speaker 3: what Chris Rodriguez can can do. And I don't know

439
00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:33,560
Speaker 3: where Will Levis's game is whatsoever. Like you see ten

440
00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:37,040
Speaker 3: touchdowns to four iron t's, he's only had two big

441
00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:39,840
Speaker 3: time throws and six and he's had six turnover worthy plays.

442
00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:41,600
Speaker 3: And I think that there's just a lot of things

443
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:44,240
Speaker 3: going on with this Kentucky offense. The offensive line is

444
00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:46,960
Speaker 3: outside the top fifty in pass blocking, there's a high

445
00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:50,320
Speaker 3: drop rate nine percent. That goes to twelve percent in

446
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:53,360
Speaker 3: play action passing, which Kentucky needs to have. I do

447
00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:55,400
Speaker 3: think that Kentucky's going to try to establish a run.

448
00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:57,520
Speaker 3: Like Stoop said, that's why we love the under. I

449
00:21:57,560 --> 00:21:59,359
Speaker 3: hope I can get fifty five at some point. But

450
00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:03,280
Speaker 3: flipping over the ole miss side, Jackson Dart not been good.

451
00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:05,520
Speaker 3: He's not going to beat that zone coverage that Kentucky

452
00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:07,720
Speaker 3: put on Florida. You know, they're twentieth in the nation

453
00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:10,639
Speaker 3: and coverage Dart ranks one hundred and seventh and just

454
00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:14,720
Speaker 3: a completion percentage of all quarterbacks with fifty passing attempts.

455
00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:17,320
Speaker 3: Think about that, he's the one hundred and seventh most

456
00:22:17,320 --> 00:22:21,520
Speaker 3: accurate passer. That's what ole Miss is. Sixty five percent rush.

457
00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:24,520
Speaker 3: So it's under all the You're right, suck, it's under

458
00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:26,879
Speaker 3: all the way. I don't trust Jackson Dart. It shows

459
00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:30,840
Speaker 3: in the numbers. He's completely inaccurate. Will Levis's whole entire

460
00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:34,240
Speaker 3: rush game is gone. He can eat as many bananas

461
00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:36,919
Speaker 3: and Mayo coffees as he won, but it's taking his

462
00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:39,399
Speaker 3: legs away the under here. I'm just being a little

463
00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:41,040
Speaker 3: greedy wanting to get that fifty five.

464
00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:43,960
Speaker 2: I think Kentucky has major flaws that haven't been exposed

465
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:46,960
Speaker 2: yet on the offensive side, and ole Miss will get

466
00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:50,440
Speaker 2: Coleman back. They're one of their best players on defense.

467
00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:54,480
Speaker 2: Although Otis Reese is a pretty important player I believe

468
00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:57,280
Speaker 2: is out for the first half of targeting, so maybe

469
00:22:57,280 --> 00:23:00,000
Speaker 2: that's another reason to wait for alive under or second

470
00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:02,800
Speaker 2: and half under. I would lean all Miss, but this

471
00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:06,400
Speaker 2: this line has gotten out of hand. All right, Let's

472
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:08,560
Speaker 2: move on to our third Marquee game today and the

473
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:12,440
Speaker 2: one I've been can't wait for your breakdown on Alabama

474
00:23:12,680 --> 00:23:16,040
Speaker 2: at Arkansas. Arkansas's is seventeen and a half point home

475
00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:20,440
Speaker 2: underdog over under sixty one. This game's at three thirty CBS.

476
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 2: I can hear the CBS music right now breaking in.

477
00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:28,440
Speaker 2: You know, the the Arkansas defense still scares me here.

478
00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:34,119
Speaker 2: They are ninety eighth EPA per rush, eighty thirty EPA

479
00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:37,520
Speaker 2: per pass. It's has been bad across the board. No

480
00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:42,919
Speaker 2: Catalan really hurts. I will say that Alabama. This was

481
00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:45,680
Speaker 2: I was reading an article earlier this week Alabama on

482
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:49,600
Speaker 2: the road again and true road games against top ten

483
00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:54,600
Speaker 2: teams since Saban won his first championship in two thousand

484
00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:57,639
Speaker 2: and nine. September twenty fifth, twenty ten, at Arkansas they

485
00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:01,639
Speaker 2: won by four, twenty twelve, that LSU one by four

486
00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:04,800
Speaker 2: two thirteen at Texas A and M one by seven

487
00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:08,679
Speaker 2: doesn't thirteen At Auburn they lost by six twenty sixteen.

488
00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 2: At Tennessee they rolled two dozen seventeen at Auburn they

489
00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:16,600
Speaker 2: lost by twelve twenty eighteen at LSU they rolled. So

490
00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:18,760
Speaker 2: five of those seven games against top ten teams on

491
00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:21,960
Speaker 2: the road, true road games were either a loss or

492
00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:26,280
Speaker 2: a one score win. Bryce Young on the road at Florida.

493
00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:30,639
Speaker 2: Last year true road games one by two at Texas,

494
00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:34,440
Speaker 2: A and M lost to Calsada at Auburn one by two,

495
00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:38,399
Speaker 2: and four overtimes at Texas. One by one at in

496
00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:42,160
Speaker 2: Mississippi State is the only game they rolled last year,

497
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:44,359
Speaker 2: and Alabama has owned this series, but last year album

498
00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:48,080
Speaker 2: only one by seven at home against Arkansas. Alabama's offense

499
00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:51,439
Speaker 2: looked underwhelming in the opener against Texas in a game

500
00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:54,240
Speaker 2: they probably should have lost. But since it's looked great,

501
00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:58,720
Speaker 2: but it's against buttercups, cupcakes and so like, how much

502
00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:01,080
Speaker 2: do you take of it? Because the talent differential is massive.

503
00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:03,800
Speaker 2: I don't think that they're as explosive on the outside,

504
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:07,600
Speaker 2: but I also don't know if Arkansas's defense can stop them.

505
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:09,920
Speaker 2: The question is what's the pace going to be? Can

506
00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:14,159
Speaker 2: Arkansas's offense keep up? Because Alabama's run defense has been

507
00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:18,879
Speaker 2: really good and Jefferson make the throws here without Treylon Burks.

508
00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:21,399
Speaker 2: He's been better than I thought throwing the ball without Burkes.

509
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:23,440
Speaker 2: So far? How does this play out?

510
00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:29,400
Speaker 3: Just talk to me, woo pick suey absolute dumpster fined dumps.

511
00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:30,920
Speaker 2: Fine. I don't know how we win a game the

512
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 2: rest of the year, just blowing program up. Give us

513
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:36,879
Speaker 2: a death sentence Collins talking razorback football.

514
00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:39,880
Speaker 3: I think that article that you read in the news

515
00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:42,399
Speaker 3: that's been floating around about what Alabama has done in

516
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:44,800
Speaker 3: true road games under Bryce Young, that's fueled a lot

517
00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:47,159
Speaker 3: of money that's come in on Arkansas here, and no

518
00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:49,480
Speaker 3: matter how much money comes in on Arkansas, the books

519
00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:51,919
Speaker 3: are just holding steady on this number. And there's just

520
00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:52,800
Speaker 3: a lot of words out.

521
00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:53,960
Speaker 2: I mean, there's a lot.

522
00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:57,240
Speaker 3: Of comforting things if you want to back Arkansas. Besides

523
00:25:57,280 --> 00:25:59,199
Speaker 3: hearing about you know, what Bryce Young has done in

524
00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:01,879
Speaker 3: true road games. Almost every power rating in the world,

525
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:05,560
Speaker 3: including US, says that this is too high. SP plus

526
00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:08,560
Speaker 3: makes this fifteen and a half. I got it around twelve,

527
00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:11,720
Speaker 3: and I even upgraded Arkansas after the box score against

528
00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:14,120
Speaker 3: Texas A and M. You know, even Savan's coming out

529
00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:15,960
Speaker 3: in his presser and he's like, I have so much

530
00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:18,840
Speaker 3: respect for Sam Pittman and Arkansas. They're well coached, they're physical.

531
00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:20,920
Speaker 3: We don't know what to do with kJ Jefferson. Get

532
00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:22,280
Speaker 3: the hell out of here, Savan. You know what you're

533
00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 3: gonna do with kJ Jefferson.

534
00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:26,280
Speaker 4: Hey, everybody gets all excited about the beginning of the season.

535
00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 4: You know, you get excited about getting married, all right,

536
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:31,040
Speaker 4: but after you're married for a while, you know, you

537
00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:32,919
Speaker 4: got to have a process to make it work. We

538
00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:34,760
Speaker 4: need to have a process to make it work. And

539
00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:37,720
Speaker 4: every game that we play, every game that we play.

540
00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:40,240
Speaker 3: I can understand why there's a lot of money coming

541
00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:42,680
Speaker 3: in on Arkansas, But I'm just here to tell everybody

542
00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:45,480
Speaker 3: that the Razorbacks do not have the pieces to hang

543
00:26:45,560 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 3: with the Alabama whatsoever. And I'll start with, you know,

544
00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:52,840
Speaker 3: the Alabama defense against the Arkansas offense, because the Arkansas

545
00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:55,119
Speaker 3: offense was up and down the field against Texas A

546
00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:58,440
Speaker 3: and M a really good defense. Will Anderson has dominated

547
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:01,600
Speaker 3: Arkansas historically five and hours tackles for lost three sacks.

548
00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:04,360
Speaker 3: And that's going up against our tackle, Dalton Wagner. He's

549
00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:07,000
Speaker 3: played in this series the last two seasons. He's had

550
00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:10,439
Speaker 3: four sacks recorded against him. You have to close the

551
00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 3: A and B gaps if you want to take the

552
00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:15,680
Speaker 3: Arkansas run away. Alabama's got that. You know, Arkansas is

553
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:17,320
Speaker 3: gonna have to try to get outside the tackles and

554
00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:20,200
Speaker 3: make something explosive happen. With Rahem Sanders there's not much

555
00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:23,000
Speaker 3: left in this running back stable. Dominiqu Johnson just a

556
00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:25,159
Speaker 3: couple of touches didn't look one hundred percent. So is

557
00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:27,040
Speaker 3: it going to be kJ Jefferson running the ball, who's

558
00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:30,160
Speaker 3: having a fumble like the fumble problem of his life

559
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:32,879
Speaker 3: this season? Just trying to do too much And then

560
00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:35,479
Speaker 3: you know you get into the whole Kendall Briles is

561
00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:38,000
Speaker 3: not calling the game that Sam Pittman wants. That is

562
00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:41,400
Speaker 3: an underline story that is not being talked about enough.

563
00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:43,240
Speaker 3: I flip over to the other side and stuck with

564
00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:45,800
Speaker 3: I mean, we're a broken record about this Arkansas defense,

565
00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:49,800
Speaker 3: Saban stated. And you know we've said this for years.

566
00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:52,960
Speaker 3: We handicap this team all the time. Saban said, we

567
00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:55,359
Speaker 3: have a philosophy about how we want to attack teams

568
00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:57,879
Speaker 3: when we head into games. And we use this against

569
00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:00,520
Speaker 3: Notre Dame in the playoff, we use this against Cincinnati playoff.

570
00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:02,679
Speaker 3: We know what they're going to want to do. Do

571
00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:04,199
Speaker 3: they want to sit on the ball and run it

572
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:05,760
Speaker 3: up the gut? Do they want to go, you know,

573
00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:08,680
Speaker 3: electric and spread it out and throw it? And he said,

574
00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:10,960
Speaker 3: we knew that if we spread the Vandy defense out,

575
00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:14,560
Speaker 3: it would be beneficial to us. Twelve players caught a

576
00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:17,879
Speaker 3: pass last week. Six targets had explosive runs against the

577
00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:18,720
Speaker 3: Vandy defense.

578
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:20,360
Speaker 2: Why did you push yourself?

579
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:24,280
Speaker 3: When Saban sees that this four man front leads the

580
00:28:24,359 --> 00:28:27,320
Speaker 3: nation in sacks now albeit it's South Carolina and FCS

581
00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:30,920
Speaker 3: offensive line. When he sees that from Arkansas, and when

582
00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:33,240
Speaker 3: he sees that the secondary's outside the top one hundred

583
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:35,800
Speaker 3: and coverage grading, his philosophy is going to be to

584
00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:39,280
Speaker 3: hit the air. There's just not enough defenders. Because yes,

585
00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:42,160
Speaker 3: Miles Slusher is back and he can play safety, he

586
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:45,120
Speaker 3: can play corner, he can play slot corner. The problem

587
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 3: is there's not enough of him. Now, when I say

588
00:28:47,120 --> 00:28:49,800
Speaker 3: the tackling is bad and it's god awful, bumper Pool,

589
00:28:50,120 --> 00:28:54,680
Speaker 3: Jayden Johnson at corner and Drew Sanders, the Alabama transfer

590
00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:56,320
Speaker 3: that's going to be fired up for this game, are

591
00:28:56,360 --> 00:29:00,280
Speaker 3: the three worst graded tacklers on this defense. They rush

592
00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:03,680
Speaker 3: the passer, they're excellent at that. Can they tackle no,

593
00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:05,239
Speaker 3: And they're not going to be able to do it

594
00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:07,800
Speaker 3: at the second level. And you know, we talk about

595
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:09,880
Speaker 3: all these stats about what Bryce Young's doing on the road.

596
00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:13,600
Speaker 3: The last three times Saban has come to Donald W. Reynolds,

597
00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:18,680
Speaker 3: Razorback Stadium, fifty two points, sixty five points, forty nine points.

598
00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:21,560
Speaker 3: I understand different head coaches, different teams and all that stuff.

599
00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:25,640
Speaker 3: Saban's philosophy in this game is going to be get

600
00:29:25,640 --> 00:29:28,960
Speaker 3: Bryce Young away from this defensive line that leads the

601
00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:33,960
Speaker 3: nation in sacks, throw into that secondary that's been absolutely

602
00:29:34,000 --> 00:29:37,440
Speaker 3: god awful, and try to create some explosive plays against

603
00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:40,240
Speaker 3: a team that ranks one hundred and twenty first in tackling.

604
00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:43,640
Speaker 3: Oh and by the way, Arkansas is outside the top

605
00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:48,480
Speaker 3: one hundred and penalties. Arkansas is sloppy. They're not executing,

606
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:51,960
Speaker 3: they're not tackling, and now the coaches are not doing

607
00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:57,400
Speaker 3: what Sam Pittman wants. I'm taking Bama at seventeen. Wow,

608
00:29:57,480 --> 00:30:00,360
Speaker 3: I think they're going to score forty for the team

609
00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:02,160
Speaker 3: totally right now as I think about thirty nine and.

610
00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:05,080
Speaker 2: A half is to Missouri State game. As you shook,

611
00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:08,520
Speaker 2: all you do is fade Sammy covers. Now bring Patrino back.

612
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:11,920
Speaker 3: How many mistackles did you see? Missouri State just shed

613
00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:14,560
Speaker 3: them off like it was a JV defense.

614
00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:18,320
Speaker 2: Ud you back Arkansas plus seventeen of Patrino was coaching.

615
00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:20,440
Speaker 3: Yes, because he'd be calling the plays in not Kendall

616
00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:26,400
Speaker 3: brownsh what is Patria? Patrida's a master Kendall Kendall Browse

617
00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:30,280
Speaker 3: is running Jefferson dive on first and four from the goal.

618
00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:33,640
Speaker 3: His play calling is aloof And I wouldn't be surprised

619
00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:35,480
Speaker 3: if Pittman went in and said, you're changing this, and

620
00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:38,000
Speaker 3: you're changing this, you're changing that. But things are not

621
00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 3: going well on both sides of the ball, and Jefferson's

622
00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:41,960
Speaker 3: trying to do too much, and it shows.

623
00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:45,280
Speaker 2: You're sixteen and six against the spread. So want to

624
00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:45,960
Speaker 2: say thank you?

625
00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:47,440
Speaker 5: Go hold.

626
00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:51,360
Speaker 2: The trader, get them howks? I might? I might. I

627
00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:52,840
Speaker 2: can't get a feel on this guy. I keep going

628
00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:55,000
Speaker 2: back and forth. I show a little value in Arkansas.

629
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:55,920
Speaker 3: Oh the number.

630
00:30:56,000 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I probably wind up staying away, or I might

631
00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:05,440
Speaker 2: throw a little couch Chaine on Arkansas money line. Oh boy. Maybe.

632
00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:08,080
Speaker 2: Well we'll get on Twitter and have some fun. All right,

633
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:10,360
Speaker 2: Much more on that game on Big Bets on Campus

634
00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:12,120
Speaker 2: Live Saturday morning. Tis We know.

635
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:14,720
Speaker 3: Breat's taking right, we know Brett's got the role, tide

636
00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:15,440
Speaker 3: sign ready to go?

637
00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:19,440
Speaker 5: Yeah, Nick Murphy, you monstrous erection you.

638
00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:22,360
Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to our next market game

639
00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:26,040
Speaker 2: of the day, Oklahoma State at Baylor. Baylor is a

640
00:31:26,040 --> 00:31:28,160
Speaker 2: two and a half point favorite here over under fifty

641
00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:30,880
Speaker 2: six and a half. Oklahoma State's in the top ten.

642
00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:34,160
Speaker 2: Now why I love Baylor here? I don't know why

643
00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:36,640
Speaker 2: this line is under three. I was low on Baylor

644
00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:39,280
Speaker 2: coming into the year. There's lost a lot in their secondary.

645
00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:42,640
Speaker 2: Their lines are excellent, the trenches are excellent. Can't run

646
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:46,160
Speaker 2: on them at all, and Oklahoma State can't run their

647
00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:49,080
Speaker 2: secondary and wide receiver. Their skill positions lost a lot.

648
00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:51,720
Speaker 2: But I must have missed the memo in Oklahoma State.

649
00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:55,120
Speaker 2: They lost Knowles, they lost all this lost everything on

650
00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:59,120
Speaker 2: the defense, It's still Spencer Sanders a quarterback. They beat

651
00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:02,440
Speaker 2: the Hours State corpse, they beat a MAC team that

652
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:05,680
Speaker 2: put up forty five, and they beat Pine Bluff. Now

653
00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:09,120
Speaker 2: they're a top ten team. What and I don't know

654
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:11,080
Speaker 2: why this ligne is in the field goal sickon Bears.

655
00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:13,560
Speaker 2: The Oklahoma State's defense, by the way, which we all

656
00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:16,920
Speaker 2: questions about that Knowles has been horrendous. They're outside the

657
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:20,960
Speaker 2: top one hundred. An e paper pass. They've played Arizona State,

658
00:32:21,320 --> 00:32:23,400
Speaker 2: the team that got blown out by Eastern Michigan at

659
00:32:23,400 --> 00:32:27,400
Speaker 2: home Central Michigan who put up almost a fifty burger

660
00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:32,160
Speaker 2: and Pine Bluff. That's their schedule now. From a situational

661
00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:34,960
Speaker 2: travel point of view, it's a great spot for k State.

662
00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:38,240
Speaker 2: They have revenge from the Big twelve championship loss where

663
00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:40,360
Speaker 2: they came up just short. They've had they had to

664
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:45,080
Speaker 2: buy the week before. Meanwhile, Baylor has gone from you know,

665
00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:51,000
Speaker 2: home to BYU, to Waco to Ames last week. So

666
00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:54,400
Speaker 2: it's the preparation. All that does favor Oklahoma State. But

667
00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:56,720
Speaker 2: I'm trusting my priors here and I don't like what

668
00:32:56,760 --> 00:32:58,960
Speaker 2: I've seen from the Ocloma State team. Yes, Fanca Sanders

669
00:32:59,000 --> 00:33:01,920
Speaker 2: has had three good games against a corpse, a mac

670
00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:04,800
Speaker 2: team and Pine Bluff like that, that's it. He's at

671
00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:08,440
Speaker 2: ten touchdowns and one interception. You know what's coming vintage

672
00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:11,520
Speaker 2: Spencer Sanders game. You know what he had last year

673
00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:14,640
Speaker 2: against Baylor and Dave Rama's defense, and I know Baylor

674
00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:18,640
Speaker 2: secondary is it is good. One touchdown, seven interceptions in

675
00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:22,280
Speaker 2: two games. I think I like Baylor at home. Anything

676
00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:24,160
Speaker 2: under a field goal, which you could still get right now,

677
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:25,960
Speaker 2: sick embarrass you.

678
00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean you kind of covered it there. You

679
00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:30,840
Speaker 3: want to know who Spencer Sanders daddy is because it's

680
00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:35,760
Speaker 3: not mister Sanders, it's Dave Randa. Spencer Sanders cannot figure

681
00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:38,560
Speaker 3: out the multiple defense. They can. I mean, Dave Randa

682
00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:40,920
Speaker 3: has got like twenty different kinds of personnel running on

683
00:33:41,000 --> 00:33:43,920
Speaker 3: in a game. Three interceptions a year ago in the

684
00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:47,360
Speaker 3: twenty twenty one regular season game four interceptions of the

685
00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:49,840
Speaker 3: Big Twelve championship. Last year. You go back to twenty

686
00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:52,160
Speaker 3: twenty during the pandemic season, they had to have a

687
00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:54,080
Speaker 3: makeup game at the end of the year. Spencer Sanders

688
00:33:54,080 --> 00:33:57,560
Speaker 3: had two interceptions in that game. Spencer Sanders wants nothing

689
00:33:57,600 --> 00:34:00,560
Speaker 3: to do with staring at a day of a random defense.

690
00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:02,560
Speaker 3: So yeah, by the way, cash your tickets. Went to

691
00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:05,160
Speaker 3: Big Twelve Media Days, they voted Spencer Sanders the number

692
00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:08,040
Speaker 3: one quarterback, first team quarterback. It's like, here's all the

693
00:34:08,120 --> 00:34:10,560
Speaker 3: quarterbacks of the Big Twelve out of this happen. His

694
00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:13,120
Speaker 3: Big time throw rate has been cut in half. From

695
00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:15,920
Speaker 3: a career perspective, it's been completely cut in half. And

696
00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:18,719
Speaker 3: it's been a soft schedule. Baylor and Oklahoma State right

697
00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:21,120
Speaker 3: now are second and third in the nation and offensive

698
00:34:21,120 --> 00:34:25,080
Speaker 3: finishing drives they are making scoring opportunities into touchdowns.

699
00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:26,960
Speaker 2: Blake shape almost also goes fast.

700
00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:29,839
Speaker 3: Yeah, the tempo is high, so just to say I

701
00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:32,680
Speaker 3: love the over end this game. But Baylor allowed Iowa

702
00:34:32,719 --> 00:34:34,840
Speaker 3: State to score a TD on all four drives that

703
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:36,880
Speaker 3: went past the forty yard line, So it's happening on

704
00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:39,359
Speaker 3: the defensive side of the ball too. To me, this

705
00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:42,040
Speaker 3: isn't over all the way. I just replay that Central

706
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:44,439
Speaker 3: Michigan game over and over and over in my head.

707
00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:46,839
Speaker 3: They were able to score it. Will there's another game

708
00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:48,960
Speaker 3: where I would love fifty five. I can see a

709
00:34:49,000 --> 00:34:51,200
Speaker 3: couple books that are teetering on fifty five and a half,

710
00:34:51,239 --> 00:34:52,719
Speaker 3: so maybe I gotta buy it there. But yeah, this

711
00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:55,680
Speaker 3: is over for me. I don't trust Oklahoma State at all.

712
00:34:56,080 --> 00:34:59,000
Speaker 2: I'm wearing my Baylor green for a reason. And yeah,

713
00:34:59,320 --> 00:35:04,040
Speaker 2: Oklahoma State with that schedule, sixth worst EPA per play

714
00:35:04,080 --> 00:35:08,120
Speaker 2: on early downs, very predictive. That's not great. Let's go

715
00:35:08,200 --> 00:35:11,360
Speaker 2: bailor all right before we continue. As a reminder, the

716
00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:14,760
Speaker 2: Big Bets on Campus podcast is probably presented by bet MGM.

717
00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:17,480
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723
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730
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731
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733
00:36:06,560 --> 00:36:09,200
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734
00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:11,839
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735
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736
00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:17,520
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737
00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:19,920
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738
00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:22,200
Speaker 2: eight hundred eight nine ninety seven eight nine or one

739
00:36:22,280 --> 00:36:25,040
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740
00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:26,799
Speaker 2: In Ontario, if you have questions or concerns about your

741
00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:30,080
Speaker 2: gambling or someone close to you, please contact Connects Ontario

742
00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:32,120
Speaker 2: at one eight six six five to three one two

743
00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:34,239
Speaker 2: six zero zero to speak to an advisor for free

744
00:36:34,239 --> 00:36:36,680
Speaker 2: of charge. Sports betting is void in Georgia, Hawaii, Ohio,

745
00:36:36,680 --> 00:36:39,480
Speaker 2: in Utah and other states were prohibited. Promotional offers not

746
00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:42,880
Speaker 2: available in Nevada and New York. All right, let's go

747
00:36:42,920 --> 00:36:45,600
Speaker 2: to our final marquee game of the day, NC State

748
00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:48,720
Speaker 2: at Clemson. Clemson's a six and a half point favorite

749
00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:50,640
Speaker 2: here over Unders bouncing all over the place with weather

750
00:36:50,719 --> 00:36:53,719
Speaker 2: speculation tickets up to forty three. Now it was down

751
00:36:53,760 --> 00:36:55,960
Speaker 2: in the high thirties. Up of forty five. Who knows

752
00:36:55,960 --> 00:36:57,959
Speaker 2: where it is A rat of the second tickets around

753
00:36:58,000 --> 00:37:02,560
Speaker 2: forty three. Clemson has won thirty six consecutive games at home.

754
00:37:02,880 --> 00:37:05,279
Speaker 2: Their last lost game forty three forty two to pit

755
00:37:05,440 --> 00:37:08,759
Speaker 2: back in twenty sixteen. NC State won this meeting last

756
00:37:08,840 --> 00:37:11,720
Speaker 2: year in overtime, twenty seven to twenty one. Their last

757
00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:15,799
Speaker 2: win at Clemson came back twenty years ago in two

758
00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:19,000
Speaker 2: thousand and two with Philip Rivers. They won to get

759
00:37:19,040 --> 00:37:21,120
Speaker 2: the nine and zero, and then I think they lost

760
00:37:21,120 --> 00:37:22,360
Speaker 2: a bunch of games in row after that, but it

761
00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:25,359
Speaker 2: was the last time they won double digit games. When

762
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:27,200
Speaker 2: I look at this game, by the way, I have

763
00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:30,640
Speaker 2: to first laugh at Clemson is look, they put up

764
00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:32,920
Speaker 2: fifty one last week for Wake. They also put up

765
00:37:32,960 --> 00:37:35,000
Speaker 2: forty eight last year against Wake when they had one

766
00:37:35,000 --> 00:37:37,440
Speaker 2: of the worst offenses in the country. DJ looks better

767
00:37:38,200 --> 00:37:41,920
Speaker 2: the Clemson secondary. But I just look, here's how I

768
00:37:41,920 --> 00:37:44,520
Speaker 2: break this down. I think the weather looks okay, so

769
00:37:44,600 --> 00:37:47,000
Speaker 2: I assume Dorin is going to come out here and

770
00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:50,000
Speaker 2: unleash Leary. That's everything that I'm hearing. That's what's gonna happen.

771
00:37:50,120 --> 00:37:52,880
Speaker 2: As long as the weather is okay, Ken Leary and

772
00:37:52,920 --> 00:37:56,239
Speaker 2: these receivers take advantage of the vulnerable Clemson secondary. I

773
00:37:56,360 --> 00:37:58,520
Speaker 2: thought as long as Hartman at time, and he didn't

774
00:37:58,520 --> 00:38:00,840
Speaker 2: really have that much time. When he did, he shredded.

775
00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:02,960
Speaker 2: Even when he didn't, he was able to shred the

776
00:38:03,000 --> 00:38:06,480
Speaker 2: Clemson defense, which was looked bad against Furman. They have

777
00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:11,759
Speaker 2: holes in the back end. They're seventy fifth in defending

778
00:38:12,320 --> 00:38:16,760
Speaker 2: pass defense success rate, but NC State sixty fifth pass

779
00:38:16,800 --> 00:38:20,240
Speaker 2: offense success rate. So I don't you know, like Clemson's

780
00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:24,279
Speaker 2: defense eightieth EPA per pass allowed. Now, I know Sam

781
00:38:24,280 --> 00:38:27,160
Speaker 2: Harmon's really good. I just haven't seen it from Devin Leary.

782
00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:29,480
Speaker 2: With these receivers, that was the big question I have

783
00:38:29,520 --> 00:38:32,360
Speaker 2: with NC State coming into the year. Their skilled positions.

784
00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:35,640
Speaker 2: They lost their best receiver as Economo or whatever his

785
00:38:35,719 --> 00:38:38,680
Speaker 2: name is, and he was their third down bailout, their

786
00:38:38,719 --> 00:38:42,000
Speaker 2: big possession receiver, their go to guy. They don't have that.

787
00:38:42,120 --> 00:38:44,800
Speaker 2: It's like fair Thomas in the slot over the middle

788
00:38:45,840 --> 00:38:47,880
Speaker 2: is a big part of this offense. But other than that,

789
00:38:48,640 --> 00:38:52,359
Speaker 2: it's a very underwhelming offense so far this year. They're

790
00:38:52,360 --> 00:38:55,040
Speaker 2: going to unleash Leary. Can he come throw as the question,

791
00:38:55,440 --> 00:38:57,840
Speaker 2: I don't know. I'm having trouble getting a hold of

792
00:38:57,880 --> 00:39:00,879
Speaker 2: this game. I ultimately think ends the State's gonna throw

793
00:39:00,920 --> 00:39:03,440
Speaker 2: a lot. Clemson won't be able to run it. You

794
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:05,040
Speaker 2: can't really run on either of these teams, so they're

795
00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:07,239
Speaker 2: gonna have to throw it. And DJ's been better at

796
00:39:07,239 --> 00:39:08,799
Speaker 2: throwing it. But I think it's gonna be under some

797
00:39:08,840 --> 00:39:11,480
Speaker 2: pressure here. A total forty three and the weather's okay

798
00:39:11,520 --> 00:39:14,399
Speaker 2: and those teams are throwing leads me to an over.

799
00:39:14,560 --> 00:39:16,560
Speaker 2: That's where I lean right now, but I also can

800
00:39:17,160 --> 00:39:18,879
Speaker 2: I don't think either offense is gonna have a ton

801
00:39:18,920 --> 00:39:21,959
Speaker 2: of success. It all comes down to Leary being able

802
00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:24,279
Speaker 2: to deal like Hartman, can you do that or not?

803
00:39:25,040 --> 00:39:27,799
Speaker 2: I don't know. Extremely confused in this game. I think

804
00:39:27,800 --> 00:39:30,680
Speaker 2: there's a lot of variance. The weather could change too.

805
00:39:30,880 --> 00:39:33,759
Speaker 2: I might throw like NC State in around Robin. Let

806
00:39:33,760 --> 00:39:36,319
Speaker 2: me line, if you got the over at like thirty

807
00:39:36,400 --> 00:39:39,200
Speaker 2: nine to forty and you saw the weather, great, But

808
00:39:39,640 --> 00:39:42,960
Speaker 2: I'm still a little bit confused. I will laugh at

809
00:39:43,000 --> 00:39:46,120
Speaker 2: Clemson and Dabbo because I always have to do that

810
00:39:46,160 --> 00:39:49,000
Speaker 2: once a week. Dabo had his son Drew Sweeney on

811
00:39:49,040 --> 00:39:52,840
Speaker 2: the kick return team last week and wake Forrest said,

812
00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:55,000
Speaker 2: what the hell is this kid doing on the kick

813
00:39:55,040 --> 00:39:57,840
Speaker 2: return team? And they kicked it to him and he

814
00:39:57,920 --> 00:40:00,040
Speaker 2: caught it. He was up one of the blockers he

815
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:03,160
Speaker 2: caught at the ten and he could barely run. Sure,

816
00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:05,880
Speaker 2: I mean just compared to D one athletes. Sure, he

817
00:40:05,920 --> 00:40:07,920
Speaker 2: was a great player in high school. You got tackled

818
00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:11,160
Speaker 2: like the nineteen. The coaches then, instead of taking them

819
00:40:11,160 --> 00:40:13,080
Speaker 2: off the team, the coaches then said, if they have

820
00:40:13,160 --> 00:40:16,840
Speaker 2: this happens again, kneeling, don't try to run. Wake next

821
00:40:17,000 --> 00:40:19,960
Speaker 2: scores a touchdown. Next kickoff, they kick it right to

822
00:40:20,160 --> 00:40:24,200
Speaker 2: Davos Kid again. He takes a knee at the tent,

823
00:40:24,600 --> 00:40:27,040
Speaker 2: They start to drive at the ten, and then Dad

824
00:40:27,080 --> 00:40:30,120
Speaker 2: will pull him out of the game. Embarrassing nepotism at

825
00:40:30,120 --> 00:40:35,640
Speaker 2: its finest. So you I don't think you'll see Davos

826
00:40:35,800 --> 00:40:39,120
Speaker 2: Kid on the kick returned unit this week. Calm, what

827
00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:39,719
Speaker 2: do you see here?

828
00:40:40,080 --> 00:40:42,160
Speaker 3: I'm filing that away for questions I want to give

829
00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:45,279
Speaker 3: Dabbo next year at media days. You know, I'll start

830
00:40:45,280 --> 00:40:47,480
Speaker 3: with the Clemson defense since you kind of ended there,

831
00:40:47,680 --> 00:40:51,040
Speaker 3: I am clear about what side I want to be

832
00:40:51,080 --> 00:40:52,920
Speaker 3: on in this game. And you're going to take the

833
00:40:52,960 --> 00:40:53,759
Speaker 3: Clemson numbers on.

834
00:40:53,920 --> 00:40:55,520
Speaker 2: My friends in Raleigh, by the way, that said you

835
00:40:55,600 --> 00:40:58,760
Speaker 2: bet CLEMP they saw you bet Clemson. They knew before

836
00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:01,799
Speaker 2: the season. You love NZ State. On the Tuesday Pod,

837
00:41:02,520 --> 00:41:04,799
Speaker 2: it sounded like you were gonna like NC State. They

838
00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:08,800
Speaker 2: want explanation, they want explanations. They are I have a

839
00:41:08,840 --> 00:41:10,960
Speaker 2: lot of good friends in Riley that come visit here.

840
00:41:11,080 --> 00:41:15,239
Speaker 2: They're like Colin played Clemson with the fuck They're like what,

841
00:41:15,400 --> 00:41:18,120
Speaker 2: They're waiting to see what I do. I'm still undecided,

842
00:41:18,160 --> 00:41:19,479
Speaker 2: So go ahead and state your case.

843
00:41:19,800 --> 00:41:22,239
Speaker 3: Listen. I hope I'm wrong. I've got a fourteen to

844
00:41:22,239 --> 00:41:24,880
Speaker 3: one on NC State to win the ACC And I

845
00:41:25,000 --> 00:41:27,080
Speaker 3: said preseason, I said during the summer, this is the

846
00:41:27,080 --> 00:41:29,200
Speaker 3: one game where you're gonna hedge. I don't think I'm

847
00:41:29,200 --> 00:41:30,880
Speaker 3: done betting on Clemson. I think I'm gonna hit the

848
00:41:30,880 --> 00:41:33,040
Speaker 3: money line too, just to cover up that fourteen to one.

849
00:41:33,120 --> 00:41:34,680
Speaker 3: So depending on what number you got it, you could

850
00:41:34,680 --> 00:41:36,239
Speaker 3: have got down to eight to one on NC State

851
00:41:36,640 --> 00:41:38,040
Speaker 3: that numbers the six and a half.

852
00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:40,120
Speaker 2: The six and a half is not a hedge play.

853
00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:42,160
Speaker 3: It's not a edge play. It's a play outright on

854
00:41:42,280 --> 00:41:45,799
Speaker 3: Clemson covering. And I think you know, to hedge the

855
00:41:45,880 --> 00:41:47,799
Speaker 3: NC State ticket, I'm good. Probably gonna have to lay

856
00:41:47,800 --> 00:41:50,560
Speaker 3: a little minus two sixty or do something live, but

857
00:41:50,560 --> 00:41:52,920
Speaker 3: I'm not sure I'm gonna get the chance live. And

858
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:54,840
Speaker 3: you know I'll start with the defense here. I think

859
00:41:55,280 --> 00:41:58,279
Speaker 3: you throw all the numbers out the door. They're gonna

860
00:41:58,280 --> 00:42:00,320
Speaker 3: get their two one or two top guys back in

861
00:42:00,360 --> 00:42:03,840
Speaker 3: the secondary that was missing last week. Andrew mccoobaugh at safety,

862
00:42:03,840 --> 00:42:07,000
Speaker 3: Shridon Jones returns to corner. Xavier Thomas is one of

863
00:42:07,000 --> 00:42:09,120
Speaker 3: the biggest pieces on the defensive line. He hasn't played

864
00:42:09,239 --> 00:42:11,680
Speaker 3: this year yet, he's supposed to return in this game.

865
00:42:12,040 --> 00:42:14,439
Speaker 3: Brian Burisi's got some personal things that have been going

866
00:42:14,440 --> 00:42:16,560
Speaker 3: on off the field. He's going to return for this game.

867
00:42:17,280 --> 00:42:20,640
Speaker 3: The defense hasn't even come close to playing to its potential.

868
00:42:21,080 --> 00:42:23,719
Speaker 3: And Wake Forest attacked a secondary last week that was

869
00:42:23,760 --> 00:42:27,000
Speaker 3: missing its top players. They're back. So when you look

870
00:42:27,000 --> 00:42:29,120
Speaker 3: at you know, and to.

871
00:42:29,000 --> 00:42:31,160
Speaker 2: Be honest, has a better pass the attack anc State,

872
00:42:31,520 --> 00:42:33,760
Speaker 2: I mean, hart re as good as it gets.

873
00:42:34,000 --> 00:42:36,520
Speaker 3: Yeah. And Devin Larry, Yeah, you're right, Devin Larry is

874
00:42:36,560 --> 00:42:38,440
Speaker 3: not Sam Hartman. He's not in that TOR and T

875
00:42:38,800 --> 00:42:40,520
Speaker 3: I N T pace that he had last year.

876
00:42:40,920 --> 00:42:44,279
Speaker 2: And as a matter of fact, he's receivers either on

877
00:42:44,320 --> 00:42:44,880
Speaker 2: the outside.

878
00:42:45,160 --> 00:42:48,279
Speaker 3: No, but he's he's had five big time throws and

879
00:42:48,360 --> 00:42:52,799
Speaker 3: five turnover worthy plays. It He's it's just not the

880
00:42:52,840 --> 00:42:54,960
Speaker 3: same production he's put out last year and it's not

881
00:42:55,000 --> 00:42:57,480
Speaker 3: something that's going to beat Clemson's secondary. And you know,

882
00:42:57,480 --> 00:42:59,719
Speaker 3: I know the box score says four touchdowns against yukon

883
00:42:59,800 --> 00:43:01,960
Speaker 3: LA week, he didn't have any big time throws, so

884
00:43:02,000 --> 00:43:05,840
Speaker 3: don't be fooled by that. And you know, the offense

885
00:43:05,880 --> 00:43:08,000
Speaker 3: has had issues moving the chains with their run game.

886
00:43:08,120 --> 00:43:11,440
Speaker 3: They're having issues doing finishing drives with touchdowns. They've been

887
00:43:11,440 --> 00:43:13,520
Speaker 3: settling for field goals or not getting any points at all.

888
00:43:13,560 --> 00:43:16,520
Speaker 3: I think back to the East Carolina game and NC

889
00:43:16,640 --> 00:43:18,720
Speaker 3: State right now is eighty seventh in red zone scoring,

890
00:43:18,920 --> 00:43:21,760
Speaker 3: so they're just not getting it done when it's money time.

891
00:43:22,360 --> 00:43:24,200
Speaker 3: And you know the biggest issue in this game is

892
00:43:24,200 --> 00:43:26,520
Speaker 3: that the two starting safeties for the wolf Pack are

893
00:43:26,560 --> 00:43:29,920
Speaker 3: missing tackles at a high pace. NC State's defense right

894
00:43:29,920 --> 00:43:32,640
Speaker 3: now one hundred and eleventh and tackle grading, but that

895
00:43:32,719 --> 00:43:36,719
Speaker 3: comes primarily from Tanner Ingle and Cyrus Fagan. Both are

896
00:43:36,760 --> 00:43:39,520
Speaker 3: safeties on the back end. And if there is a

897
00:43:39,560 --> 00:43:42,680
Speaker 3: Clemson offensive player that gets into the second level, they're

898
00:43:42,719 --> 00:43:44,799
Speaker 3: just going to blow through them like it's the Arkansas

899
00:43:44,840 --> 00:43:46,719
Speaker 3: like it's the Arkansas defense. Now, I do have to

900
00:43:46,719 --> 00:43:50,239
Speaker 3: say this, we are now at DJ Ueyungalilely podcast. I'm

901
00:43:50,239 --> 00:43:53,640
Speaker 3: making the executive decision. Yeah, it's a week dj ouey

902
00:43:53,719 --> 00:44:12,959
Speaker 3: Ungalilely podcast. What I saw against Wake last week was ridiculous.

903
00:44:13,280 --> 00:44:16,480
Speaker 3: What he did against Wake's defense was ridiculous. And by

904
00:44:16,520 --> 00:44:17,799
Speaker 3: the way Wake cranks.

905
00:44:17,520 --> 00:44:19,840
Speaker 2: No, it was ridiculous. In that game is the roughs.

906
00:44:19,920 --> 00:44:22,200
Speaker 2: They better not call it like this. Every throw down

907
00:44:22,239 --> 00:44:24,920
Speaker 2: the field was PI. If I knew that, I would

908
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:27,640
Speaker 2: have bet everything I have on the over all you

909
00:44:27,680 --> 00:44:29,520
Speaker 2: gotta do is throw it downfield. And he made some

910
00:44:29,560 --> 00:44:31,280
Speaker 2: good throws and completions, put up a lot of ours.

911
00:44:31,320 --> 00:44:34,960
Speaker 2: But any incompletion in that game pi P, I just

912
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:35,920
Speaker 2: flags everywhere.

913
00:44:36,360 --> 00:44:38,360
Speaker 3: That arm that we loved against Notre Dame back in

914
00:44:38,400 --> 00:44:42,280
Speaker 3: the pandemic season, it's back. DJ had five passing touchdowns

915
00:44:42,280 --> 00:44:44,719
Speaker 3: against Wake. None of it was a fluke, and it

916
00:44:44,760 --> 00:44:47,280
Speaker 3: was pretty impressive against a Wake defense At PFF grades

917
00:44:47,360 --> 00:44:50,759
Speaker 3: is the ninth best coverage team in the nation, and

918
00:44:50,840 --> 00:44:52,000
Speaker 3: I think there's some things that we need to pay

919
00:44:52,000 --> 00:44:54,759
Speaker 3: attention here with DJ. I tweeted something out last night

920
00:44:54,800 --> 00:44:57,160
Speaker 3: about it. I was shocked to read it. DJ has

921
00:44:57,239 --> 00:44:59,520
Speaker 3: one turnover play through the air so far this year.

922
00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:02,040
Speaker 3: The game against Wake was the first time he hasn't

923
00:45:02,080 --> 00:45:04,920
Speaker 3: had a drop from a wide receiver since the weight

924
00:45:05,040 --> 00:45:08,600
Speaker 3: game last year. DJ has doubled his big time throw

925
00:45:08,640 --> 00:45:10,920
Speaker 3: rate this season from four point five percent up to

926
00:45:11,080 --> 00:45:14,320
Speaker 3: nine point four percent. He's making all the huge throws

927
00:45:14,680 --> 00:45:17,000
Speaker 3: and on the ground. This is what I couldn't believe

928
00:45:17,200 --> 00:45:19,600
Speaker 3: because when we saw him in the opener against Georgia Tech,

929
00:45:19,640 --> 00:45:22,160
Speaker 3: he looks slow. Right lost a lot of weight. He

930
00:45:22,200 --> 00:45:25,400
Speaker 3: looks slow. He has eighteen miss tackles created in twenty

931
00:45:25,440 --> 00:45:27,640
Speaker 3: eight rushing attempts this season. You think, okay, well, that's

932
00:45:27,640 --> 00:45:30,920
Speaker 3: a pretty good rate. He had fourteen lifetime before this

933
00:45:31,000 --> 00:45:35,080
Speaker 3: season and one hundred and ten rushing attempts. He's already

934
00:45:35,160 --> 00:45:38,279
Speaker 3: exceeded that in a quarter of the attempts this year.

935
00:45:38,680 --> 00:45:42,120
Speaker 3: He is making people miss on the ground. He has

936
00:45:42,440 --> 00:45:46,240
Speaker 3: doubled his big time throw rate. DJ is doing things,

937
00:45:46,239 --> 00:45:48,040
Speaker 3: and I don't think he's getting enough credit for it,

938
00:45:48,080 --> 00:45:51,360
Speaker 3: even after what happened against Wake. This is a Clemson

939
00:45:51,400 --> 00:45:53,839
Speaker 3: play all the way, is not. I'm not you know

940
00:45:54,040 --> 00:45:56,680
Speaker 3: the hedge against within C State. That'll I'll put that

941
00:45:56,719 --> 00:45:59,400
Speaker 3: in the app some other time. But Clemson's going to

942
00:45:59,440 --> 00:46:04,080
Speaker 3: cover this game. DJ is playing elite football again. The

943
00:46:04,960 --> 00:46:06,960
Speaker 3: football we thought was going to show up last year

944
00:46:07,280 --> 00:46:09,600
Speaker 3: is what we have seen so far in the numbers

945
00:46:09,880 --> 00:46:13,000
Speaker 3: on the ground and through the air. It's gonna be

946
00:46:13,040 --> 00:46:16,080
Speaker 3: a web ball, sloppy track. Don't I don't want to

947
00:46:16,080 --> 00:46:18,680
Speaker 3: back in NC State offense. It's forty second havoc allowed

948
00:46:19,480 --> 00:46:21,920
Speaker 3: or defense is missing tackles so much so Clemson.

949
00:46:21,960 --> 00:46:24,840
Speaker 2: For me, I'm still undecided. To keep an eye on

950
00:46:24,840 --> 00:46:26,960
Speaker 2: the NC State special teams. Two good kickers here, but

951
00:46:27,040 --> 00:46:29,799
Speaker 2: NC State special teams are elite and we know, you know,

952
00:46:29,880 --> 00:46:32,280
Speaker 2: Dad has got his kid on ones. Punter is not great.

953
00:46:32,400 --> 00:46:35,200
Speaker 2: Keep an eye on the special teams because that could

954
00:46:35,239 --> 00:46:38,120
Speaker 2: be a path for NC State. We'll talk more about

955
00:46:38,120 --> 00:46:40,359
Speaker 2: this game. Ten thirty eight Eastern Big Bets on Campus Live.

956
00:46:40,760 --> 00:46:43,840
Speaker 2: All right, good stuff on the marquee games of the weekend.

957
00:46:44,120 --> 00:46:48,240
Speaker 2: It's time to move on to the rundown. But perfectly

958
00:46:48,480 --> 00:46:51,719
Speaker 2: is done. No, we can finally play the game, all right,

959
00:46:52,080 --> 00:46:55,480
Speaker 2: I'll start here quick thoughts perdue Minnesota. Minnesota has been

960
00:46:55,840 --> 00:46:58,920
Speaker 2: a wreck a machine. They've covered all four games. By

961
00:46:58,920 --> 00:47:00,479
Speaker 2: the way, it goes back to that and I mentioned

962
00:47:00,520 --> 00:47:05,000
Speaker 2: for UNLB home favorites that have covered with a margin

963
00:47:05,000 --> 00:47:07,720
Speaker 2: of fourteen plus in weeks four and five, or thirty

964
00:47:07,719 --> 00:47:10,280
Speaker 2: three percent over the past thirty years against the spread.

965
00:47:10,560 --> 00:47:13,120
Speaker 2: Probably a good spot to sell high on Minnesota. I

966
00:47:13,160 --> 00:47:15,799
Speaker 2: think this line's way too high, But I don't know

967
00:47:15,800 --> 00:47:17,839
Speaker 2: if Aidan O'Connell's going to play. I think he is,

968
00:47:18,200 --> 00:47:20,319
Speaker 2: and bron came out and said the injury happened in

969
00:47:20,360 --> 00:47:22,960
Speaker 2: the first quarter against Syracuse, So I think it's just

970
00:47:22,960 --> 00:47:24,880
Speaker 2: a pain talents thing because then he played fine. The

971
00:47:24,920 --> 00:47:27,600
Speaker 2: rest of the game's shredding. So and then there's a

972
00:47:27,600 --> 00:47:32,120
Speaker 2: couple of defensive starters that might be back that Purdue needs.

973
00:47:32,320 --> 00:47:35,759
Speaker 2: They're also the starting running back all the missed last

974
00:47:35,800 --> 00:47:38,560
Speaker 2: week against FAU. The run defense also is pretty good

975
00:47:38,600 --> 00:47:40,560
Speaker 2: when they're fully healthy. I think this is a good

976
00:47:40,560 --> 00:47:44,480
Speaker 2: opportunity to buy Purdue and sell Minnesota. But it'll depend

977
00:47:44,520 --> 00:47:47,200
Speaker 2: on if O'Connell and company are back. Keep an eye

978
00:47:47,239 --> 00:47:48,719
Speaker 2: on the app if that comes through. I'll have a

979
00:47:48,760 --> 00:47:50,600
Speaker 2: pretty good idea that they're all back right out to

980
00:47:50,640 --> 00:47:52,120
Speaker 2: the dead range too, so there's no rush.

981
00:47:52,680 --> 00:47:55,120
Speaker 3: You can't handicap Perdue right now. Because of Aidan O'Connell,

982
00:47:55,200 --> 00:47:58,360
Speaker 3: running back King Deru and his calf, and wide receiver

983
00:47:58,440 --> 00:48:00,680
Speaker 3: brock Thompson, who's doubtful right now? I know, but I

984
00:48:00,760 --> 00:48:04,200
Speaker 3: will say that Kirk Soroka coming back to this offense.

985
00:48:04,800 --> 00:48:06,520
Speaker 3: I know boe Ebram is going to come back and

986
00:48:06,600 --> 00:48:09,640
Speaker 3: run the ball. But now that Soraca is back calling plays,

987
00:48:09,640 --> 00:48:12,760
Speaker 3: the Gophers are just blowing the doors off of people.

988
00:48:13,080 --> 00:48:15,239
Speaker 3: They're four hundred and eighty five total yards against New

989
00:48:15,280 --> 00:48:17,919
Speaker 3: Mexico State was their worst offensive performance and they quit

990
00:48:17,960 --> 00:48:20,520
Speaker 3: playing in that game in the third quarter. So if

991
00:48:20,560 --> 00:48:25,000
Speaker 3: you want to avoid all the Purdue questions that we

992
00:48:25,160 --> 00:48:28,399
Speaker 3: have played, the Minnesota team total over which I think

993
00:48:28,480 --> 00:48:29,880
Speaker 3: is probably going to get put in by the end

994
00:48:29,880 --> 00:48:30,440
Speaker 3: of the night by me.

995
00:48:32,160 --> 00:48:35,439
Speaker 2: West Virginia Texas Texas nine point favorite is the team

996
00:48:35,480 --> 00:48:39,560
Speaker 2: without a fumble. With another bounce, they could be four now.

997
00:48:40,080 --> 00:48:43,200
Speaker 2: Unfortunately they're not laying nine at home against West Virginia.

998
00:48:43,920 --> 00:48:45,320
Speaker 2: Should be a lot of points in this one.

999
00:48:46,440 --> 00:48:49,479
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, on the side, Yeah, I don't know if CJ.

1000
00:48:49,560 --> 00:48:51,160
Speaker 3: Donaldson is going to be able to get tackled by

1001
00:48:51,160 --> 00:48:53,960
Speaker 3: that Texas defense. And we're still waiting to see if

1002
00:48:54,080 --> 00:48:56,120
Speaker 3: you know, Quinn Eewers, it's going to be Quinn Rers

1003
00:48:56,160 --> 00:48:58,320
Speaker 3: or Hudson Cardi he might be able to play against.

1004
00:48:58,040 --> 00:48:59,680
Speaker 2: So they both were practicing this week.

1005
00:49:00,120 --> 00:49:02,160
Speaker 3: They're practicing this week, so waiting on to see that.

1006
00:49:02,239 --> 00:49:05,080
Speaker 3: But if if West Virginia is gonna you know, run CJ.

1007
00:49:05,160 --> 00:49:08,799
Speaker 3: Donaldson up the gut against Texas, then this could be

1008
00:49:09,719 --> 00:49:11,960
Speaker 3: a sneaky undergame. And I think we're starting to see

1009
00:49:11,960 --> 00:49:14,120
Speaker 3: some under money come in key number there in that

1010
00:49:14,200 --> 00:49:16,400
Speaker 3: range sixty five and sixty two. It doesn't look like

1011
00:49:16,400 --> 00:49:18,960
Speaker 3: we're gonna get up to sixty five, but I think

1012
00:49:18,960 --> 00:49:21,360
Speaker 3: this may be a slower pace than usual, and we're not,

1013
00:49:21,960 --> 00:49:24,439
Speaker 3: you know, too sure how tex is going to react

1014
00:49:24,480 --> 00:49:26,600
Speaker 3: after a loss last week, So I lean under there.

1015
00:49:27,120 --> 00:49:30,080
Speaker 2: Speaking of Wake Forest, they go down to Florida State,

1016
00:49:30,680 --> 00:49:33,600
Speaker 2: so's some weather uncertainty, but I think it'll mainly be okay.

1017
00:49:33,640 --> 00:49:37,400
Speaker 2: Florida State's been a machine. They destroyed Boston College last week,

1018
00:49:37,760 --> 00:49:41,800
Speaker 2: Wicks catching seven, seven and a half. Here my angle

1019
00:49:41,840 --> 00:49:45,080
Speaker 2: here is I don't mind the over. I mean, Jordan

1020
00:49:45,120 --> 00:49:47,839
Speaker 2: Travis is playing incredible and anyone can score in week.

1021
00:49:48,360 --> 00:49:50,960
Speaker 2: I think Wake will have success. They just I mean

1022
00:49:51,120 --> 00:49:54,560
Speaker 2: Hartman cooked against his team last year, and I think

1023
00:49:54,560 --> 00:49:57,600
Speaker 2: Wake's gonna go super fast. The Florida State defense has

1024
00:49:57,600 --> 00:49:59,880
Speaker 2: a lot of injuries, especially on the defensive line. Depth

1025
00:50:00,160 --> 00:50:02,600
Speaker 2: a question, and I think the Wake Forest wants to

1026
00:50:02,640 --> 00:50:04,879
Speaker 2: wear them out. There's no reason to bet this game.

1027
00:50:04,920 --> 00:50:08,520
Speaker 2: Pre game, in my opinion, should be trading scores. Just

1028
00:50:08,560 --> 00:50:10,160
Speaker 2: like last week when I got Wake plus fourteen and

1029
00:50:10,200 --> 00:50:13,680
Speaker 2: a half live, Florida State goes up seven to nothing, Boom,

1030
00:50:13,680 --> 00:50:16,840
Speaker 2: I'm hitting Wake if Wake is moving the ball. Florida

1031
00:50:16,840 --> 00:50:19,759
Speaker 2: State goes up again, Boom, I'm hitting Wake live, and

1032
00:50:19,800 --> 00:50:21,719
Speaker 2: then I might look at Wait second half because I

1033
00:50:21,760 --> 00:50:24,319
Speaker 2: think what Wake wants to do here is wear down

1034
00:50:24,360 --> 00:50:27,520
Speaker 2: Florida State and that defensive line, and once they do,

1035
00:50:28,239 --> 00:50:31,160
Speaker 2: then it's going to be free reign for Hartman and

1036
00:50:31,200 --> 00:50:35,439
Speaker 2: that mesh point with a tired Florida State defensive line.

1037
00:50:35,560 --> 00:50:37,200
Speaker 2: Any thoughts there, Yeah.

1038
00:50:37,160 --> 00:50:39,000
Speaker 3: For those of you that hit the opener on Florida

1039
00:50:39,040 --> 00:50:41,560
Speaker 3: State with me, I'm in agreeing to with Stock. You know,

1040
00:50:41,600 --> 00:50:43,680
Speaker 3: the number is nothing to be acting on right now,

1041
00:50:43,719 --> 00:50:45,799
Speaker 3: but if Florida State is able to get some sort

1042
00:50:45,840 --> 00:50:48,279
Speaker 3: of lead that number bulges above seven, then it'll be

1043
00:50:48,280 --> 00:50:50,000
Speaker 3: time to buy back on that. So that's the best

1044
00:50:50,000 --> 00:50:52,399
Speaker 3: advice I can give to those of us that we're

1045
00:50:52,520 --> 00:50:55,719
Speaker 3: lucky enough to get a really great Sunday number on

1046
00:50:55,880 --> 00:50:59,920
Speaker 3: Florida State, you know, and that defense, just the defensive

1047
00:51:00,000 --> 00:51:01,680
Speaker 3: and just keeps having guys go down and they're still

1048
00:51:01,680 --> 00:51:03,600
Speaker 3: putting pressure on quarterbacks. But we'll see if they can

1049
00:51:03,640 --> 00:51:07,120
Speaker 3: do that here. FSU is fifty six then coverage. They

1050
00:51:07,120 --> 00:51:09,800
Speaker 3: haven't faced an elite passing unit yet, so Sam Hartman

1051
00:51:09,840 --> 00:51:12,759
Speaker 3: and at Perry should have a ton of success here.

1052
00:51:13,239 --> 00:51:16,200
Speaker 3: I'm not you can let your Florida State three three

1053
00:51:16,239 --> 00:51:19,000
Speaker 3: and a half said, if you want, I am going

1054
00:51:19,040 --> 00:51:21,839
Speaker 3: to be buying back on Wake during the game. It'd

1055
00:51:21,880 --> 00:51:23,760
Speaker 3: be a dream if I can get double digits. We'll see.

1056
00:51:25,040 --> 00:51:26,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I got. I got plus fourteen and a half

1057
00:51:26,640 --> 00:51:29,440
Speaker 2: last week in the game that they outplayed Pumpcident instead

1058
00:51:29,440 --> 00:51:32,640
Speaker 2: have won. All Right, Oregon State at your beloved utes.

1059
00:51:33,440 --> 00:51:34,680
Speaker 3: Did you say ute?

1060
00:51:35,000 --> 00:51:38,640
Speaker 2: Yeahtes. Tough spot for Oregon State here, obviously off that

1061
00:51:38,680 --> 00:51:43,480
Speaker 2: heartbreaking loss against USC. Now they travel to Utah. We

1062
00:51:43,640 --> 00:51:45,920
Speaker 2: pretty much gotta buy last week playing the corpse of

1063
00:51:45,960 --> 00:51:48,400
Speaker 2: Arizona State. Are you gonna tell everyone to lay it

1064
00:51:48,440 --> 00:51:49,040
Speaker 2: with your utes?

1065
00:51:49,520 --> 00:51:52,160
Speaker 3: Yeah? The numbers should be closer to fourteen. It opened

1066
00:51:52,239 --> 00:51:54,480
Speaker 3: up nine and a half, it got up above ten.

1067
00:51:55,040 --> 00:51:57,400
Speaker 3: I wouldn't be surprised to see Utah take a little

1068
00:51:57,400 --> 00:51:59,360
Speaker 3: bit more money some steam on game day here. So

1069
00:51:59,400 --> 00:52:01,000
Speaker 3: if you do like the U two, can let it go.

1070
00:52:01,400 --> 00:52:03,279
Speaker 3: This number is going to end up at fourteen. There's

1071
00:52:03,280 --> 00:52:06,560
Speaker 3: a lot of advantages for Utah with the exception of

1072
00:52:06,560 --> 00:52:10,120
Speaker 3: offensive finishing drives. They have been you know, not scoring

1073
00:52:10,160 --> 00:52:11,759
Speaker 3: as much when they should have. They've been settled for

1074
00:52:11,800 --> 00:52:14,560
Speaker 3: field goals more than touchdowns. We'll see if that changes here.

1075
00:52:14,560 --> 00:52:17,640
Speaker 3: But you know, sixteenth in the country and defensive havoc

1076
00:52:17,680 --> 00:52:19,279
Speaker 3: and that's going to be a problem for Oregon State,

1077
00:52:19,960 --> 00:52:23,800
Speaker 3: something that USC could not expose whatsoever. Oregon State defensively,

1078
00:52:24,160 --> 00:52:27,200
Speaker 3: they have no pass rush, no pass rush. What's interesting

1079
00:52:27,280 --> 00:52:29,920
Speaker 3: is that they did get a pass rush on Caleb Williams,

1080
00:52:29,960 --> 00:52:31,480
Speaker 3: but they're one hundred and twenty eighth in the country

1081
00:52:31,480 --> 00:52:33,239
Speaker 3: and pass rush that I got to get off this

1082
00:52:33,320 --> 00:52:36,239
Speaker 3: USC hate. Everything seems to turn into USC hate. I

1083
00:52:36,440 --> 00:52:41,280
Speaker 3: cannot wait to unload on Utah when USC comes to town.

1084
00:52:41,600 --> 00:52:43,960
Speaker 3: And I cannot wait to unload when USC makes the

1085
00:52:43,960 --> 00:52:46,920
Speaker 3: College Football Playoff. It's going to be like a payoff

1086
00:52:46,960 --> 00:52:50,080
Speaker 3: your mortgage bet. But anyways, no Utah, I think the

1087
00:52:50,160 --> 00:52:52,239
Speaker 3: numbers are going to steam. So I would go ahead

1088
00:52:52,239 --> 00:52:54,480
Speaker 3: and grab it once you hear this podcast.

1089
00:52:55,160 --> 00:52:59,560
Speaker 2: By the way, one of our great UFC fan followers,

1090
00:53:00,840 --> 00:53:02,759
Speaker 2: I missed the voicemail on Sunday. I said, no one

1091
00:53:02,800 --> 00:53:05,759
Speaker 2: from you. See he called it and took his medicine.

1092
00:53:06,040 --> 00:53:08,239
Speaker 2: But they're still way ahead of your vet in USC.

1093
00:53:08,360 --> 00:53:09,879
Speaker 2: But shout to him. I wanted to get that out there.

1094
00:53:09,960 --> 00:53:12,560
Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to a segment that we

1095
00:53:12,680 --> 00:53:14,160
Speaker 2: used to do in the past that I'm bringing back.

1096
00:53:14,560 --> 00:53:18,600
Speaker 2: It's called Stink of the Week. Smell it smell it smelly.

1097
00:53:19,200 --> 00:53:19,960
Speaker 3: It's the smell.

1098
00:53:20,520 --> 00:53:24,920
Speaker 2: It's quite pungent. Plug your nose, it's stinks.

1099
00:53:25,000 --> 00:53:27,760
Speaker 5: This is your stink of the Week.

1100
00:53:30,880 --> 00:53:39,600
Speaker 2: Smell. And we're going dumpster diving. Baby. I'm calling this week.

1101
00:53:39,920 --> 00:53:44,800
Speaker 2: The slate is beautiful, my card is ugly. It's hell week. Baby.

1102
00:53:45,000 --> 00:53:47,719
Speaker 2: If you want to join me and sweat all the

1103
00:53:47,760 --> 00:53:51,360
Speaker 2: worst teams on the board, we're doing it. I'm gonna

1104
00:53:51,400 --> 00:53:53,840
Speaker 2: go through six teams right now. Calm, and all I

1105
00:53:53,880 --> 00:53:56,160
Speaker 2: needed to do is you say agree or disagree after

1106
00:53:56,200 --> 00:54:00,000
Speaker 2: my case, and you could say one sentence and you're

1107
00:54:00,080 --> 00:54:02,960
Speaker 2: if you're the judge. All right, We're gonna start Texas

1108
00:54:02,960 --> 00:54:07,960
Speaker 2: State plus twenty two against James Madison. Look James Madison

1109
00:54:07,960 --> 00:54:09,680
Speaker 2: by the way they fit all the trends to you

1110
00:54:09,680 --> 00:54:12,120
Speaker 2: know FATA scenes on the feed against the spread. Yeah,

1111
00:54:12,160 --> 00:54:14,600
Speaker 2: they beat app State last week. It was one of

1112
00:54:14,640 --> 00:54:16,200
Speaker 2: my favorite spots of the week. They were in the

1113
00:54:16,200 --> 00:54:18,400
Speaker 2: spots piece. I think app State just wore down the

1114
00:54:18,440 --> 00:54:21,399
Speaker 2: second half. Jam, who has been incredible, but twenty two.

1115
00:54:22,200 --> 00:54:25,880
Speaker 2: This line is outrageous. Texas State was just catching thirty

1116
00:54:25,920 --> 00:54:29,440
Speaker 2: at Baylor. But Jam, he's a seven point dog and

1117
00:54:29,480 --> 00:54:32,399
Speaker 2: a neutral to Baylor. That's crazy. And Texas State didn't

1118
00:54:32,400 --> 00:54:35,000
Speaker 2: even get embarrassed in that game against Baylor. It's time

1119
00:54:35,080 --> 00:54:37,360
Speaker 2: to sell high on James Madison in your potential flat spot.

1120
00:54:38,200 --> 00:54:40,719
Speaker 2: Give meat to Bob's catching over three touchdowns. This line

1121
00:54:40,719 --> 00:54:43,200
Speaker 2: should be closer to two touchdowns, not over three. It's

1122
00:54:43,200 --> 00:54:43,839
Speaker 2: time to sell.

1123
00:54:44,160 --> 00:54:46,399
Speaker 3: The line should be fifteen. I absolutely agree with you,

1124
00:54:46,440 --> 00:54:48,839
Speaker 3: but no reason to act when that number is at

1125
00:54:48,840 --> 00:54:50,920
Speaker 3: twenty two. And then we'll just see where it ends up.

1126
00:54:50,960 --> 00:54:53,440
Speaker 3: But I mean, come on, it'll end up at twenty.

1127
00:54:53,920 --> 00:55:00,120
Speaker 2: It's not going to twenty four, all right, Let's stay

1128
00:55:00,360 --> 00:55:04,960
Speaker 2: a new Eastern kick maybe plus fourteen or better against

1129
00:55:05,040 --> 00:55:08,680
Speaker 2: air Force. I love this bet, sure, no sort. By

1130
00:55:08,719 --> 00:55:11,720
Speaker 2: the way, you ever get a Service Academy catching fourteen

1131
00:55:11,800 --> 00:55:14,239
Speaker 2: or more, you take it. You ever have a Service

1132
00:55:14,239 --> 00:55:16,799
Speaker 2: Academy laying fourteen or more, you fade it unless they're

1133
00:55:16,800 --> 00:55:21,160
Speaker 2: playing Nevada. H Service Academies laying fourteen or more thirty

1134
00:55:21,239 --> 00:55:23,680
Speaker 2: nine fifty five to two against the spread past twenty years,

1135
00:55:23,840 --> 00:55:27,799
Speaker 2: that's forty one percent. How about uh, that's three eight

1136
00:55:27,800 --> 00:55:31,759
Speaker 2: and one against the spread against triple option teams who

1137
00:55:31,800 --> 00:55:33,840
Speaker 2: obviously know the triple option, and then the game is stalled.

1138
00:55:33,840 --> 00:55:37,120
Speaker 2: There's limited possessions Service Academy has when getting fourteen or

1139
00:55:37,120 --> 00:55:42,520
Speaker 2: more past twenty years, sixty two percent just clockwork in

1140
00:55:42,560 --> 00:55:45,879
Speaker 2: this particular matchup, like both these teams that just they

1141
00:55:45,920 --> 00:55:48,400
Speaker 2: did know each other. By the way, over the past

1142
00:55:48,440 --> 00:55:51,960
Speaker 2: twenty years, unders have gone forty nine, eleven and three

1143
00:55:52,120 --> 00:55:55,560
Speaker 2: eighty two percent in Service Academy games, including a streak

1144
00:55:55,600 --> 00:55:58,920
Speaker 2: of twenty one to two and one over the past

1145
00:55:59,320 --> 00:56:03,040
Speaker 2: twenty four game since twenty fourteen. But in this particular game, look,

1146
00:56:03,080 --> 00:56:04,960
Speaker 2: these teams know each other really well. They practice against

1147
00:56:05,000 --> 00:56:09,360
Speaker 2: Ripopchin all the time. Air Forces run defense has been leaky,

1148
00:56:09,760 --> 00:56:13,439
Speaker 2: very leaky. Navy's run d has been elite all year.

1149
00:56:13,719 --> 00:56:15,879
Speaker 2: No one can run on them. Their past these bad,

1150
00:56:16,120 --> 00:56:18,960
Speaker 2: real bad. But air Force is not gonna throw. I'll

1151
00:56:19,000 --> 00:56:21,319
Speaker 2: throw a little bit here and there, but stalemate game,

1152
00:56:21,760 --> 00:56:24,160
Speaker 2: Navy hangs it in two touchdowns.

1153
00:56:24,160 --> 00:56:43,359
Speaker 6: Still, miss, I'm gonna join you, and I'm gonna hate

1154
00:56:43,360 --> 00:56:45,200
Speaker 6: myself for because every time I bet on Navy, it's

1155
00:56:45,239 --> 00:56:47,680
Speaker 6: embarrassing that you are absolutely correct.

1156
00:56:47,719 --> 00:56:51,480
Speaker 3: These Air Force defensive numbers are shocking. They are one

1157
00:56:51,560 --> 00:56:54,680
Speaker 3: hundred and eleventh and defensive finishing drives are allowing everybody

1158
00:56:54,680 --> 00:56:58,000
Speaker 3: to score a touchdown. Their ninety second defensive rushing success rate.

1159
00:56:59,160 --> 00:57:02,440
Speaker 2: Native run day has been elite legally, and you know

1160
00:57:02,480 --> 00:57:03,360
Speaker 2: what else is elite.

1161
00:57:04,000 --> 00:57:07,160
Speaker 3: Navy's top ten in the nation. Defensive finishing drives. Teams

1162
00:57:07,200 --> 00:57:09,360
Speaker 3: are going away, but no points are only three points

1163
00:57:09,360 --> 00:57:13,440
Speaker 3: not touchdowns against NAVS defense. So I'm with you. It's gross. God,

1164
00:57:13,520 --> 00:57:14,359
Speaker 3: you're killing me here.

1165
00:57:14,440 --> 00:57:16,720
Speaker 2: This is God, this is it's only gonna go. It's

1166
00:57:16,720 --> 00:57:21,280
Speaker 2: only gonna get better, baby. Northwestern plus twenty five and

1167
00:57:21,320 --> 00:57:24,920
Speaker 2: a half against Penn State. This line is crazy inflated

1168
00:57:25,280 --> 00:57:27,240
Speaker 2: and by the way, it's great spot in Northwestern. They're

1169
00:57:27,240 --> 00:57:30,320
Speaker 2: off three straight home games, all three straight home losses

1170
00:57:30,680 --> 00:57:35,320
Speaker 2: to Duke Southern Illinois and Minas Ohio. But if you

1171
00:57:35,400 --> 00:57:37,960
Speaker 2: dig in, they all gained all three opponents, they were

1172
00:57:38,240 --> 00:57:41,120
Speaker 2: negative seven turnover margin, They turned it over nine times,

1173
00:57:41,400 --> 00:57:43,720
Speaker 2: gave it up twice, tons of short fields for their opponents.

1174
00:57:44,280 --> 00:57:48,160
Speaker 2: Very unlucky go on the road here as dogs after

1175
00:57:48,200 --> 00:57:50,960
Speaker 2: three straight home losses where they didn't cover historically or

1176
00:57:51,000 --> 00:57:53,440
Speaker 2: a thirty year period, those teams eighty percent against the

1177
00:57:53,440 --> 00:57:55,760
Speaker 2: spread for what it's worth, but I think that's playing

1178
00:57:55,760 --> 00:57:58,200
Speaker 2: into this line here. Meanwhile, Penn State has been killing teams,

1179
00:57:58,240 --> 00:58:00,720
Speaker 2: but they're eight to zero in terms over the past

1180
00:58:00,720 --> 00:58:03,640
Speaker 2: three games plus eight turnover margin. Like Auburn put up

1181
00:58:03,640 --> 00:58:06,040
Speaker 2: a lot of yards. Central Michigan, who was kind of

1182
00:58:06,040 --> 00:58:10,280
Speaker 2: hanging around Penn State doesn't care about this game. They

1183
00:58:10,320 --> 00:58:13,600
Speaker 2: want to get up and get out of town, get

1184
00:58:13,600 --> 00:58:17,360
Speaker 2: to their buy because they have Minnesota. Well, first they

1185
00:58:17,360 --> 00:58:21,000
Speaker 2: have Michigan, then Minnesota, then Ohio State on deck and

1186
00:58:21,120 --> 00:58:24,120
Speaker 2: all James Franklin has talked about and he's talked about it,

1187
00:58:24,120 --> 00:58:26,120
Speaker 2: and he's walked a walk. He's playing a shit ton

1188
00:58:26,160 --> 00:58:28,880
Speaker 2: of true freshmen. He's even getting he thinks he's going

1189
00:58:28,920 --> 00:58:30,360
Speaker 2: to get the backup quarterback in there in the second

1190
00:58:30,400 --> 00:58:32,760
Speaker 2: quarter this week, he's saying because he wants to build depth.

1191
00:58:32,760 --> 00:58:35,040
Speaker 2: That's all he's talked about his depth has heard him

1192
00:58:35,040 --> 00:58:37,960
Speaker 2: in the past. So you'll probably get backups in here soon.

1193
00:58:38,760 --> 00:58:41,320
Speaker 2: This line is super inflated. And I'll tell you this.

1194
00:58:42,320 --> 00:58:45,000
Speaker 2: With Northwestern, I'm not saying they're going to win the

1195
00:58:45,000 --> 00:58:48,360
Speaker 2: West Division, but if you go back to twenty eighteen,

1196
00:58:49,000 --> 00:58:51,760
Speaker 2: this is just eerie. They started off the year with

1197
00:58:51,800 --> 00:58:53,440
Speaker 2: a road win and they're in first place there. I

1198
00:58:53,440 --> 00:58:55,840
Speaker 2: want to know in the West twenty eighteen they started

1199
00:58:55,880 --> 00:58:57,840
Speaker 2: off when they twenty eighteen, they finished in the top

1200
00:58:58,000 --> 00:59:00,280
Speaker 2: twenty five and won the West. How they start of

1201
00:59:00,280 --> 00:59:03,560
Speaker 2: the year win away from home against Purdue.

1202
00:59:03,840 --> 00:59:04,240
Speaker 3: Want to know?

1203
00:59:04,920 --> 00:59:08,280
Speaker 2: They come home for three home games. They lose to Duke.

1204
00:59:08,680 --> 00:59:12,000
Speaker 2: Sound familiar. They lose to a MAC team US to

1205
00:59:12,040 --> 00:59:16,560
Speaker 2: Acron is twenty four point favorites. Achron. The lost twenty

1206
00:59:16,560 --> 00:59:18,120
Speaker 2: four point fairs at least my bye was only a

1207
00:59:18,160 --> 00:59:21,680
Speaker 2: seven point underdog. And then they lost to I think

1208
00:59:21,680 --> 00:59:24,880
Speaker 2: another big ten team. They go on the road, they

1209
00:59:24,880 --> 00:59:27,920
Speaker 2: didn't cover any of them, zero and three. They go

1210
00:59:27,960 --> 00:59:31,920
Speaker 2: on the road for a big ten game, double digit underdogs.

1211
00:59:32,400 --> 00:59:34,320
Speaker 2: What they did or they want outright at Michigan State.

1212
00:59:35,120 --> 00:59:38,560
Speaker 2: Don't sleep on Pat's Cats in this spot.

1213
00:59:41,000 --> 00:59:46,240
Speaker 3: Pats Cats, you're killing me here. I might join you here.

1214
00:59:46,360 --> 00:59:48,360
Speaker 3: I'm not sure if I'm gonna join you in Navy.

1215
00:59:48,360 --> 00:59:49,640
Speaker 3: I'm not sure I could join you here.

1216
00:59:49,760 --> 00:59:52,200
Speaker 2: All right, let's keep it rolling, and there sure could

1217
00:59:52,240 --> 00:59:53,960
Speaker 2: be some weather here so it could be lower scoring.

1218
00:59:54,320 --> 00:59:56,600
Speaker 2: Let's keep it rolling. Let's go with the ultimate catch,

1219
00:59:56,600 --> 01:00:00,560
Speaker 2: the falling night spot. Colorado plus seven seventeen and a

1220
01:00:00,600 --> 01:00:03,720
Speaker 2: half against Arizona. I love this game.

1221
01:00:04,400 --> 01:00:07,800
Speaker 3: Shame change.

1222
01:00:11,800 --> 01:00:15,320
Speaker 2: By the way, Arizona. You know they have on deck Oregon,

1223
01:00:15,840 --> 01:00:21,120
Speaker 2: then Washington, then USC then Utah like again, get out

1224
01:00:21,120 --> 01:00:24,120
Speaker 2: with a win, stay healthy, don't show too much potential.

1225
01:00:24,120 --> 01:00:28,960
Speaker 2: Sleepy spot here, But Colorado, who's zero to four against

1226
01:00:28,960 --> 01:00:32,560
Speaker 2: the spread? Not covering by a billion points? Literally, I

1227
01:00:32,600 --> 01:00:34,760
Speaker 2: think it might be a billion points. They have been

1228
01:00:35,440 --> 01:00:39,080
Speaker 2: beyond dreadful. If you the more you dig into their numbers,

1229
01:00:39,160 --> 01:00:42,800
Speaker 2: the uglier it gets. Like it is, it's horrible. But

1230
01:00:43,320 --> 01:00:45,120
Speaker 2: for what it's worth, road teams have yet to cover

1231
01:00:45,560 --> 01:00:49,880
Speaker 2: in week five forty eight, twenty six and one, covering

1232
01:00:49,880 --> 01:00:52,840
Speaker 2: by five points per game sixty five percent? Who wants

1233
01:00:52,880 --> 01:00:54,840
Speaker 2: to bet these seas? And we five This line is

1234
01:00:54,920 --> 01:00:59,160
Speaker 2: super inflated in my opinion. And look, there's reason four

1235
01:00:59,200 --> 01:01:02,080
Speaker 2: optimism as to why this is the bottom of the

1236
01:01:02,080 --> 01:01:05,400
Speaker 2: market for Colorado. They had quarterbacks who could not complete

1237
01:01:05,440 --> 01:01:07,960
Speaker 2: a pass the first three weeks. Last week they put

1238
01:01:08,000 --> 01:01:11,480
Speaker 2: in Owen McCown, a freshman, Josh McCown's kid. They're their

1239
01:01:11,520 --> 01:01:14,640
Speaker 2: best passing game of the past three years. He's the

1240
01:01:14,640 --> 01:01:17,240
Speaker 2: best quarterback by far. It's not Lewis who I hate,

1241
01:01:17,280 --> 01:01:19,680
Speaker 2: and it's not Shrout it went like five of twelve

1242
01:01:19,680 --> 01:01:22,479
Speaker 2: in his start. It's macow He looked pretty good throwing

1243
01:01:22,520 --> 01:01:25,680
Speaker 2: the ball down field. And the worst part about Colorado

1244
01:01:26,240 --> 01:01:28,120
Speaker 2: and I hate Colorado I have under three wins or

1245
01:01:28,120 --> 01:01:31,640
Speaker 2: whatever it was, is their run defense has been I mean,

1246
01:01:31,840 --> 01:01:34,480
Speaker 2: it is unspeakably bad.

1247
01:01:35,600 --> 01:01:38,200
Speaker 3: Defensive rushing success. Right yeah, yeah, it's worst place by far.

1248
01:01:38,280 --> 01:01:40,360
Speaker 2: But they played four teams that are top twenty five

1249
01:01:40,440 --> 01:01:45,440
Speaker 2: rushing like Minnesota, Air Force, UCLA, right, like, they played

1250
01:01:45,760 --> 01:01:50,280
Speaker 2: all good TCU. Arizona is not a great rushing team,

1251
01:01:50,640 --> 01:01:53,480
Speaker 2: so they'll get a break in that aspect. I think

1252
01:01:53,520 --> 01:01:56,680
Speaker 2: Colorado covers this game. It's time to catch the falling knife.

1253
01:01:57,360 --> 01:02:00,240
Speaker 2: You did not have to do that. You did not

1254
01:02:00,320 --> 01:02:03,480
Speaker 2: have to do that, you're forcing something in there. Agree

1255
01:02:03,560 --> 01:02:05,560
Speaker 2: or disagree, I'm out.

1256
01:02:05,880 --> 01:02:08,440
Speaker 3: I'm with you on all these dirty teams. I am

1257
01:02:08,520 --> 01:02:11,680
Speaker 3: not placing a nickel of my money on a Mike

1258
01:02:11,760 --> 01:02:15,400
Speaker 3: Sandford offensive coordinator. No way. I was with you.

1259
01:02:15,480 --> 01:02:18,920
Speaker 2: Owen McCown, Baby, this stop, I'm out, Owen McCown, all right,

1260
01:02:18,960 --> 01:02:24,800
Speaker 2: the last one. This one's bad. Boston College plus fifteen

1261
01:02:24,880 --> 01:02:27,120
Speaker 2: at home. They've been a disaster. I don't know what.

1262
01:02:27,280 --> 01:02:30,080
Speaker 2: Their offensive line has been a disaster. Djakovic has been

1263
01:02:30,080 --> 01:02:33,200
Speaker 2: a disaster. They get Louisville at home noon kickoff.

1264
01:02:33,560 --> 01:02:33,720
Speaker 3: Look.

1265
01:02:33,800 --> 01:02:36,880
Speaker 2: BC has talent, they've especially in the secondary and a

1266
01:02:36,880 --> 01:02:39,320
Speaker 2: wide receiver. Their offensive line has been bad. Jarek Vic

1267
01:02:39,360 --> 01:02:40,760
Speaker 2: has been bad. I think this is the time to

1268
01:02:40,760 --> 01:02:43,880
Speaker 2: buy the bottom. BC catch a fifteen and a half

1269
01:02:43,880 --> 01:02:46,720
Speaker 2: at home against a dumb Louisville team. Louisville is so

1270
01:02:46,800 --> 01:02:50,680
Speaker 2: much of what they do is running Cunningham and BC's

1271
01:02:50,760 --> 01:02:52,440
Speaker 2: D is small. That's one of their problems, the D

1272
01:02:52,480 --> 01:02:54,920
Speaker 2: line small. But I think they'll be okay to chase

1273
01:02:54,960 --> 01:02:58,120
Speaker 2: around like there's their team speed on defensive chase around,

1274
01:02:58,440 --> 01:02:59,840
Speaker 2: cutting in. They have a couple guys, so I think

1275
01:02:59,840 --> 01:03:04,400
Speaker 2: will good spies on him and Louisville will make their mistakes.

1276
01:03:04,440 --> 01:03:06,920
Speaker 2: I think this is the bottom of the market for BC.

1277
01:03:07,840 --> 01:03:10,880
Speaker 2: I'm buying them at fifteen and a half point home

1278
01:03:10,920 --> 01:03:13,040
Speaker 2: dogs agree or disagree, No, I agree.

1279
01:03:13,120 --> 01:03:16,200
Speaker 3: The number is completely inflated. I've got this projected at

1280
01:03:16,240 --> 01:03:19,320
Speaker 3: Boston College plus nine. I know SP plus is at ten,

1281
01:03:19,480 --> 01:03:22,720
Speaker 3: so that the eight eight. Yeah, the number is way

1282
01:03:22,800 --> 01:03:25,959
Speaker 3: up there. Boston College actually has a better tackling grade

1283
01:03:25,960 --> 01:03:29,400
Speaker 3: than Louisville. The problem with Boston College's defense is the

1284
01:03:29,600 --> 01:03:31,760
Speaker 3: is the coverage grading. They're much better against the rush.

1285
01:03:31,800 --> 01:03:35,320
Speaker 3: Their forty second defensive lineyards. So yeah, I could get

1286
01:03:35,320 --> 01:03:37,200
Speaker 3: into this. I don't know how they score any points,

1287
01:03:37,240 --> 01:03:42,040
Speaker 3: but yeah, I can see where the Louisville stupidity twenty

1288
01:03:42,040 --> 01:03:44,880
Speaker 3: seven penalties and turnovers.

1289
01:03:44,240 --> 01:03:47,080
Speaker 2: All right, that'll be I think I've taken all the

1290
01:03:47,080 --> 01:03:48,760
Speaker 2: trash out. Yeah.

1291
01:03:50,240 --> 01:03:54,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, Louisiana's gonna win at home. So absolutely. They look

1292
01:03:54,240 --> 01:03:56,360
Speaker 3: great at home. Win two games at home, they go

1293
01:03:56,400 --> 01:03:58,400
Speaker 3: on the road for two games with their brand new coach,

1294
01:03:58,680 --> 01:04:02,520
Speaker 3: lost them both right ULM. Now they're coming home against

1295
01:04:02,520 --> 01:04:05,600
Speaker 3: the South Alabama team that I believe is undefeated. Gets

1296
01:04:05,640 --> 01:04:08,320
Speaker 3: the spread. I am a believer that Louisiana can do

1297
01:04:08,480 --> 01:04:11,400
Speaker 3: pull it off at home. South Alabama has given some

1298
01:04:11,440 --> 01:04:16,040
Speaker 3: Power five teams a real struggle, and now they're going

1299
01:04:16,120 --> 01:04:17,960
Speaker 3: to travel. And I just think this number right here

1300
01:04:18,080 --> 01:04:20,520
Speaker 3: is way too high for Louisiana. It's switched on them.

1301
01:04:20,520 --> 01:04:23,520
Speaker 3: I mean, they've gone from being a thirteen point favorite

1302
01:04:23,520 --> 01:04:25,800
Speaker 3: over Rice to being a nine point underdog to to

1303
01:04:25,840 --> 01:04:28,080
Speaker 3: South Alabama. It's just too far of a swimming So

1304
01:04:28,880 --> 01:04:30,760
Speaker 3: I'm back in the rage in cages at home to

1305
01:04:30,800 --> 01:04:31,440
Speaker 3: get a cover.

1306
01:04:31,920 --> 01:04:34,560
Speaker 2: That's South Alabama. Team's a wagon, by the way, But yeah,

1307
01:04:34,560 --> 01:04:39,960
Speaker 2: this line probably is probably overinflated. South Alabama a favorite

1308
01:04:39,960 --> 01:04:41,880
Speaker 2: that's four to l against the spread thirty eight percent

1309
01:04:42,000 --> 01:04:45,640
Speaker 2: past thirty years in week five. All right, that's enough

1310
01:04:45,720 --> 01:04:48,640
Speaker 2: trash for this weekend. I don't think I have any

1311
01:04:48,680 --> 01:04:51,600
Speaker 2: other on my radar. We're not betting Yukon. Don't worry.

1312
01:04:52,200 --> 01:04:54,680
Speaker 2: But these days, if you want to join me, it

1313
01:04:54,760 --> 01:04:57,400
Speaker 2: takes some courage because it's not going to be fun.

1314
01:04:58,440 --> 01:05:00,520
Speaker 2: At least you're covering right when the game is arts.

1315
01:05:00,840 --> 01:05:02,800
Speaker 2: And these days didn't tend to go really well or

1316
01:05:02,840 --> 01:05:03,800
Speaker 2: really poorly.

1317
01:05:03,560 --> 01:05:05,760
Speaker 3: So there was a whole bunch of money on you

1318
01:05:05,840 --> 01:05:07,400
Speaker 3: mass last week and I couldn't figure it out and

1319
01:05:07,440 --> 01:05:09,840
Speaker 3: they got their doors blown off. So I mean, you know,

1320
01:05:10,480 --> 01:05:12,480
Speaker 3: you gotta pick and choose the trash, right, You just

1321
01:05:12,560 --> 01:05:14,280
Speaker 3: can't take all the trash. You gotta pick and choose

1322
01:05:14,280 --> 01:05:15,360
Speaker 3: which trash you're gonna take.

1323
01:05:17,040 --> 01:05:18,000
Speaker 2: What's that smell?

1324
01:05:18,560 --> 01:05:23,320
Speaker 3: It's Diggs, But I mean, just trash, the sweet, sweet trash.

1325
01:05:24,240 --> 01:05:27,400
Speaker 1: The trash is a gold mine, old mild.

1326
01:05:28,040 --> 01:05:30,560
Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, like I'm not taking FIU. I will not

1327
01:05:30,600 --> 01:05:35,080
Speaker 2: ever prau. But some of this trash is playing team

1328
01:05:35,320 --> 01:05:38,680
Speaker 2: or playing teams that have are also overinflated in the market,

1329
01:05:38,920 --> 01:05:41,560
Speaker 2: so you have kind of value from both sides on

1330
01:05:41,600 --> 01:05:44,880
Speaker 2: some of these games. So I'm not playing Temple. Kurt

1331
01:05:44,880 --> 01:05:48,560
Speaker 2: Warner's kid, who's now the Temple quarterback, Dwan Mathis, by

1332
01:05:48,560 --> 01:05:51,000
Speaker 2: the way, started he was a starter at Georgia, starting

1333
01:05:51,080 --> 01:05:53,320
Speaker 2: quarterback at Georgia Week one a couple of years ago.

1334
01:05:53,880 --> 01:05:56,600
Speaker 2: He's now he's now been moved from quarterback to receiver

1335
01:05:56,680 --> 01:06:00,200
Speaker 2: at Temple and Kurt Warner's kid has taken over. I mean,

1336
01:06:00,200 --> 01:06:01,560
Speaker 2: how hard that's got to be hard to go to

1337
01:06:02,120 --> 01:06:03,680
Speaker 2: wake up and go to practice. You're like, I was

1338
01:06:03,720 --> 01:06:05,480
Speaker 2: the started quarterback at Georgia now I've just been moved

1339
01:06:05,520 --> 01:06:07,280
Speaker 2: to receiver at Temple.

1340
01:06:07,600 --> 01:06:09,600
Speaker 3: Do you know what team has been absolutely terrible this

1341
01:06:09,720 --> 01:06:12,800
Speaker 3: year and finally had an epiphany in the second half

1342
01:06:12,840 --> 01:06:14,840
Speaker 3: and woke up, and now they get a really great spot.

1343
01:06:15,040 --> 01:06:18,800
Speaker 3: That's Virginia. Virginia going to Duke after Duke lost that game,

1344
01:06:18,880 --> 01:06:20,960
Speaker 3: I mean potentially game day was gonna come. It was

1345
01:06:20,960 --> 01:06:23,960
Speaker 3: a huge game against Kansas. Lose that game, come home,

1346
01:06:24,000 --> 01:06:26,400
Speaker 3: and Virginia gets an extra day arrest. In the second half,

1347
01:06:26,400 --> 01:06:28,800
Speaker 3: Brandon Armstrong finally woke up and remembered who he was,

1348
01:06:29,560 --> 01:06:30,800
Speaker 3: so look at Duke.

1349
01:06:31,680 --> 01:06:33,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not playing Arizona State. By the way, We're

1350
01:06:33,400 --> 01:06:36,920
Speaker 2: not fading USC. I can't bet the corpse I just got.

1351
01:06:36,960 --> 01:06:39,520
Speaker 2: I just hope that USC doesn't turn it over. All

1352
01:06:39,600 --> 01:06:40,880
Speaker 2: right for you out of here, we have one final

1353
01:06:40,960 --> 01:06:44,680
Speaker 2: word of business. Let's go for you out.

1354
01:06:44,960 --> 01:06:47,120
Speaker 3: Let's make it a quick three and out.

1355
01:06:48,400 --> 01:06:51,479
Speaker 2: All right, let's start with our favorite bet on first down.

1356
01:06:51,960 --> 01:06:55,800
Speaker 2: I will start things off. I'm going with We're going

1357
01:06:55,840 --> 01:06:59,320
Speaker 2: to keep the theme going of more stinks of the week.

1358
01:06:59,360 --> 01:07:03,000
Speaker 2: I'm going with show Charlotte plus three at home against UTEP.

1359
01:07:03,520 --> 01:07:05,240
Speaker 2: I have to put Charlotte in my best bets. That's

1360
01:07:05,280 --> 01:07:07,280
Speaker 2: the only way that Chris Reynolds starts and finishes a game.

1361
01:07:07,560 --> 01:07:10,720
Speaker 2: Did it against Georgia State going back to the well here.

1362
01:07:11,480 --> 01:07:13,800
Speaker 2: Sorry Minor Nation, but this line is crazy. I think

1363
01:07:13,920 --> 01:07:16,840
Speaker 2: Charlotte should be at least a three point favorite at home.

1364
01:07:17,240 --> 01:07:19,320
Speaker 2: The wind is not going to be an issue, So

1365
01:07:19,680 --> 01:07:21,560
Speaker 2: Chris Reynolds. By the way, you could look at any

1366
01:07:21,560 --> 01:07:24,400
Speaker 2: of Charlott's numbers if you want throw them out. They

1367
01:07:24,400 --> 01:07:26,640
Speaker 2: were almost beating South Carolina for half and then they

1368
01:07:26,680 --> 01:07:28,560
Speaker 2: pulled him because they don't want him to get hurt.

1369
01:07:28,560 --> 01:07:30,320
Speaker 2: He took a big hit where it is they just

1370
01:07:30,360 --> 01:07:33,880
Speaker 2: were protecting him for conference play first half of Florida

1371
01:07:33,880 --> 01:07:37,800
Speaker 2: Atlantic competitive. He gets hurt, that blown out, blown out

1372
01:07:37,840 --> 01:07:39,680
Speaker 2: in every other game where he didn't play. The one

1373
01:07:39,720 --> 01:07:41,960
Speaker 2: game he started and finished, they won his twenty one

1374
01:07:41,960 --> 01:07:44,280
Speaker 2: point underdogs, and he threw for six touchdowns of four

1375
01:07:44,360 --> 01:07:46,600
Speaker 2: hundred yards. It's one of the best passing attacks to

1376
01:07:46,640 --> 01:07:49,440
Speaker 2: the group of five level utep secondary is awful. They

1377
01:07:49,440 --> 01:07:51,919
Speaker 2: should be able to take advantage at home. You tept,

1378
01:07:52,200 --> 01:07:53,200
Speaker 2: did everyone for you?

1379
01:07:53,280 --> 01:07:53,560
Speaker 3: Tept?

1380
01:07:53,640 --> 01:07:55,120
Speaker 2: I think you know they beat Boise. I was on

1381
01:07:55,160 --> 01:07:56,920
Speaker 2: them that would think that was more about Boise did

1382
01:07:56,920 --> 01:07:59,120
Speaker 2: everyone forget that two weeks ago UTEP lost by twenty

1383
01:07:59,160 --> 01:08:01,320
Speaker 2: to New Mexico. The UTEP has one of the worst

1384
01:08:01,360 --> 01:08:05,200
Speaker 2: offenses in the country. By the way, UTEP in program

1385
01:08:05,280 --> 01:08:09,120
Speaker 2: history is oh twenty six and one in the Eastern

1386
01:08:09,120 --> 01:08:10,680
Speaker 2: time Zone. I don't know what it means, but I

1387
01:08:10,680 --> 01:08:13,440
Speaker 2: find it hilarious. It's time to buy Charlotte here. I

1388
01:08:13,440 --> 01:08:15,360
Speaker 2: think Reynolds is good to go as long as he

1389
01:08:15,360 --> 01:08:17,240
Speaker 2: doesn't get hurt. If he gets hurt, yeah, the BET's over.

1390
01:08:17,479 --> 01:08:19,599
Speaker 2: But it's a risk I'm willing to take, even though

1391
01:08:19,600 --> 01:08:23,880
Speaker 2: it's burt me twice already this year. Reynolds finishes the game,

1392
01:08:24,120 --> 01:08:27,519
Speaker 2: Charlotte wins. Give me the Charlotte forty nine ers catching

1393
01:08:27,560 --> 01:08:28,200
Speaker 2: three at home.

1394
01:08:29,200 --> 01:08:32,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, sadly, I'm going to fade our beloved road runners

1395
01:08:32,240 --> 01:08:33,880
Speaker 3: of UTSA. I'm gonna take Middletons.

1396
01:08:33,880 --> 01:08:36,719
Speaker 2: We're fading UTEP and UTSA and our best bet. Yeah wow.

1397
01:08:37,120 --> 01:08:40,000
Speaker 3: I mean these are my two favorite teams and we're

1398
01:08:40,000 --> 01:08:43,320
Speaker 3: fading them both. We're gonna go with Middle Tennessee plus

1399
01:08:43,320 --> 01:08:45,599
Speaker 3: four plus four and a half is out there, and

1400
01:08:45,920 --> 01:08:49,240
Speaker 3: I believe every the scent of Middle Tennessee was kind

1401
01:08:49,240 --> 01:08:52,480
Speaker 3: of thrown off at the beginning because James Madison absolutely

1402
01:08:52,479 --> 01:08:54,639
Speaker 3: blew them out. We all wrote Middle Tennessee off as

1403
01:08:54,680 --> 01:08:56,640
Speaker 3: a team that's just gonna, you know, be one of

1404
01:08:56,640 --> 01:08:59,320
Speaker 3: the worst in their conference. But they've been anything but,

1405
01:08:59,560 --> 01:09:02,560
Speaker 3: covering three straight since then. Last week four hundred and

1406
01:09:02,600 --> 01:09:06,680
Speaker 3: eight passing yards against the Miami Hurricanes, Chase Cunningham at

1407
01:09:06,720 --> 01:09:09,960
Speaker 3: quarterbacks sixteen point three yards per pass. Last week just

1408
01:09:10,080 --> 01:09:12,960
Speaker 3: on fire. Since James Madison nine big time throws and

1409
01:09:13,000 --> 01:09:16,400
Speaker 3: only three turnover worthy plays. Four of his targets have

1410
01:09:16,479 --> 01:09:19,680
Speaker 3: had right now, four of his targets have greater than

1411
01:09:19,680 --> 01:09:22,240
Speaker 3: two yards per route run, meaning he's got a lot

1412
01:09:22,280 --> 01:09:26,400
Speaker 3: of explosive weapons around him. UTSA has been terrible against

1413
01:09:26,439 --> 01:09:28,840
Speaker 3: the past one hundred and fifteenth in coverage ranking. You

1414
01:09:28,880 --> 01:09:31,280
Speaker 3: have three hundred yards to army Middle Tennessee State.

1415
01:09:31,320 --> 01:09:32,160
Speaker 2: They are for real.

1416
01:09:32,920 --> 01:09:34,519
Speaker 3: I think it was the James Madison game of Week

1417
01:09:34,560 --> 01:09:36,479
Speaker 3: one that threw everybody off, But I am completely on

1418
01:09:36,520 --> 01:09:40,240
Speaker 3: them here hosting our UTSA roadrunners plus four plus four

1419
01:09:40,240 --> 01:09:42,280
Speaker 3: and a half. Look for Middle Tennessee to win it outright.

1420
01:09:42,640 --> 01:09:46,559
Speaker 2: We're fading UTSA and UTEP with Charlotte and my nemesis

1421
01:09:46,600 --> 01:09:49,040
Speaker 2: Middle Tennessee State. This is our listener to not going

1422
01:09:49,120 --> 01:09:52,439
Speaker 2: to like this. That game should shatter utsa Middle Tennessee.

1423
01:09:52,520 --> 01:09:55,760
Speaker 2: That should should be a free over second down our

1424
01:09:55,880 --> 01:09:59,679
Speaker 2: favorite over dog aka our favorite favorite.

1425
01:09:59,200 --> 01:10:00,360
Speaker 3: It's called the over dogs.

1426
01:10:00,400 --> 01:10:04,360
Speaker 2: Parlay at their a couple sweeps back to back. We

1427
01:10:04,680 --> 01:10:07,719
Speaker 2: didn't hit these last week. For this week, I'm going

1428
01:10:07,760 --> 01:10:12,440
Speaker 2: with Iowa State minus three on the road at Kansas.

1429
01:10:12,760 --> 01:10:16,639
Speaker 2: I'm sorry, look, we're feeding all the favorite teams. I'm sorry,

1430
01:10:16,640 --> 01:10:20,479
Speaker 2: but this line is crazy because No Number one that

1431
01:10:20,560 --> 01:10:23,759
Speaker 2: the best unit. Both offenses should move the ball. Kansas

1432
01:10:23,760 --> 01:10:27,800
Speaker 2: defense is atrocious, like really really really really bad. Yes,

1433
01:10:27,840 --> 01:10:30,240
Speaker 2: they pulled two upsets off they were out gained in both.

1434
01:10:30,800 --> 01:10:33,479
Speaker 2: You know they got the bounces that went their way.

1435
01:10:33,560 --> 01:10:36,320
Speaker 2: There's some regression coming if you look in some of

1436
01:10:36,360 --> 01:10:39,880
Speaker 2: the advanced metrics. But Iowa State's defense is really good.

1437
01:10:39,880 --> 01:10:41,439
Speaker 2: It will be the best defense they faced all year.

1438
01:10:41,840 --> 01:10:44,400
Speaker 2: They'll get some stops in scheme that'll be the difference.

1439
01:10:44,640 --> 01:10:47,519
Speaker 2: They also have some film, great defensive staff. They now

1440
01:10:47,560 --> 01:10:50,000
Speaker 2: have a lot of film on what the electric and

1441
01:10:50,120 --> 01:10:55,280
Speaker 2: awesome Daniels is doing in this offense. I think they'll

1442
01:10:55,280 --> 01:10:57,360
Speaker 2: come up with some good adjustments here. This is just

1443
01:10:57,439 --> 01:10:59,920
Speaker 2: a crazy old reaction. Last year, I know Kansas is better,

1444
01:11:00,000 --> 01:11:01,960
Speaker 2: I was State lost a lot, but decords looks fine,

1445
01:11:02,000 --> 01:11:04,680
Speaker 2: the offense looks fine, the defense has been great. And

1446
01:11:04,800 --> 01:11:06,400
Speaker 2: last week against Baylor, they just had a bunch of

1447
01:11:06,439 --> 01:11:10,400
Speaker 2: penalty to drive killing penalties on defense like personal fouls.

1448
01:11:11,800 --> 01:11:14,599
Speaker 2: Last year, Iowa State won this game, I think fifty

1449
01:11:14,640 --> 01:11:18,120
Speaker 2: eight to seven. They were thirty five point favorites at home.

1450
01:11:18,520 --> 01:11:21,519
Speaker 2: I get that Kansas is better, but they're not that

1451
01:11:21,720 --> 01:11:23,439
Speaker 2: much better. And I would State is not that, but

1452
01:11:23,520 --> 01:11:25,320
Speaker 2: it was. There were thirty five point favorites, and why

1453
01:11:25,520 --> 01:11:30,200
Speaker 2: fifty the Kansas train comes to an end Iowa State

1454
01:11:30,439 --> 01:11:33,040
Speaker 2: minus three. And by the way, maybe it's not Broctober.

1455
01:11:33,680 --> 01:11:39,439
Speaker 2: Maybe it's Matt Campbell October. Oh god, that's not we'll

1456
01:11:39,439 --> 01:11:49,160
Speaker 2: call it Coctober October might be a thing. No, no,

1457
01:11:51,240 --> 01:11:54,040
Speaker 2: And by the way, as an underdog or favorite of

1458
01:11:54,080 --> 01:11:57,960
Speaker 2: three or less, Matt Campbell thirty four eighteen against the

1459
01:11:58,000 --> 01:12:03,680
Speaker 2: spread sixty six percent. Only Brian Kelly has been more

1460
01:12:03,680 --> 01:12:07,400
Speaker 2: profitable in that spot. That includes an absurd twenty six

1461
01:12:07,479 --> 01:12:11,400
Speaker 2: and twelve against the spread mark against Big twelve opponents,

1462
01:12:11,720 --> 01:12:14,160
Speaker 2: coming by an average of seven points per game. This

1463
01:12:14,280 --> 01:12:17,280
Speaker 2: is a great spot to back Campbell off the loss

1464
01:12:17,280 --> 01:12:21,920
Speaker 2: to boot Candas it's over, you're not getting ranked.

1465
01:12:22,240 --> 01:12:25,080
Speaker 3: Sorry, that's too bad.

1466
01:12:25,200 --> 01:12:26,680
Speaker 2: Murphy had his chance and he didn't do it.

1467
01:12:26,800 --> 01:12:28,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, he had his chance to make history and he

1468
01:12:28,800 --> 01:12:30,840
Speaker 3: didn't get it done. I'm going to put it over

1469
01:12:30,880 --> 01:12:32,599
Speaker 3: and take a San Jose State team. I think there's

1470
01:12:32,640 --> 01:12:36,080
Speaker 3: two different perceptions between San Jose State and Wyoming. A

1471
01:12:36,160 --> 01:12:39,879
Speaker 3: Wyoming team that you know, has struggled against Northern Colorado,

1472
01:12:39,880 --> 01:12:42,160
Speaker 3: they needed some turnovers just to get that game, didn't

1473
01:12:42,200 --> 01:12:45,240
Speaker 3: get the cover there, and then air Force was missing

1474
01:12:45,280 --> 01:12:48,240
Speaker 3: a boatload of players. And that Wyoming win that primetime

1475
01:12:48,280 --> 01:12:50,800
Speaker 3: game that everybody got to see and assumed that this

1476
01:12:50,880 --> 01:12:54,040
Speaker 3: Wyoming team offense and defense was you know, get a

1477
01:12:54,120 --> 01:12:55,760
Speaker 3: challenge in the Mountain West. But this is still a

1478
01:12:55,800 --> 01:12:57,800
Speaker 3: defense for Wyoming that is one hundred and thirtieth in

1479
01:12:57,840 --> 01:13:01,599
Speaker 3: tackling right now, one of the worst in coverage, pass rush, havoc.

1480
01:13:01,680 --> 01:13:04,680
Speaker 3: The defense is not good whatsoever, and they're allowing everybody

1481
01:13:05,040 --> 01:13:07,479
Speaker 3: to score touchdowns. When you look at San Jose State,

1482
01:13:07,560 --> 01:13:09,439
Speaker 3: it's sort of the same thing. They lose to Fresno

1483
01:13:10,160 --> 01:13:12,759
Speaker 3: and then against Auburn they lose the game they covered,

1484
01:13:12,760 --> 01:13:15,519
Speaker 3: they lose by just a possession. But what's more important

1485
01:13:15,560 --> 01:13:17,920
Speaker 3: is their yards per play were greater than Auburn in

1486
01:13:17,960 --> 01:13:20,280
Speaker 3: that game when they traveled. It was shocking to everybody

1487
01:13:20,280 --> 01:13:22,880
Speaker 3: that they had three hundred and twenty nine total offensive yards,

1488
01:13:23,320 --> 01:13:25,080
Speaker 3: were able to sling the ball over the place. And

1489
01:13:25,120 --> 01:13:28,599
Speaker 3: then finally that played out against Western Michigan last week

1490
01:13:28,640 --> 01:13:31,120
Speaker 3: with a spread of only six and a half. They

1491
01:13:31,160 --> 01:13:35,479
Speaker 3: covered that game by twenty eight by twenty eight points.

1492
01:13:35,520 --> 01:13:38,719
Speaker 3: So this is just the wrong perception on two teams

1493
01:13:38,720 --> 01:13:41,280
Speaker 3: based on what they've done before. Wyoming's went over air

1494
01:13:41,320 --> 01:13:43,840
Speaker 3: force was a fluke. They needed turnovers to win against

1495
01:13:43,840 --> 01:13:46,400
Speaker 3: the FCS team, and San Jose State went down and

1496
01:13:46,439 --> 01:13:49,679
Speaker 3: put up as many yards as Auburn in their home.

1497
01:13:50,200 --> 01:13:51,920
Speaker 3: Looked for them to take advantage of a very weak

1498
01:13:51,960 --> 01:13:54,559
Speaker 3: Wyoming team on the road. There's a reason why this

1499
01:13:54,640 --> 01:13:56,679
Speaker 3: game is steamed all the way up to three. Probably

1500
01:13:56,680 --> 01:13:58,200
Speaker 3: going to see hm hiher before it comes. So my

1501
01:13:58,240 --> 01:14:00,360
Speaker 3: overdog is going to be the San Jose State gardens.

1502
01:14:00,880 --> 01:14:03,519
Speaker 2: Yeah, I completely agree here. It was funny we you

1503
01:14:03,680 --> 01:14:06,800
Speaker 2: put this bet in on the app and I had

1504
01:14:06,840 --> 01:14:09,719
Speaker 2: just bet it, and I was like, am I that sync? Somehow?

1505
01:14:09,800 --> 01:14:11,120
Speaker 2: Like what is going on, how did this show? And

1506
01:14:11,120 --> 01:14:13,040
Speaker 2: I was like, oh no, this wasn't me. It was

1507
01:14:13,160 --> 01:14:15,720
Speaker 2: very very odd. Maybe it's meant to be. But yeah,

1508
01:14:15,720 --> 01:14:18,200
Speaker 2: I agree, Wyoming has been bad. I mean you look

1509
01:14:18,200 --> 01:14:21,280
Speaker 2: at their defensive metrics, bad, bad, bad. And San Jeese

1510
01:14:21,400 --> 01:14:25,120
Speaker 2: State been really good the past couple of weeks, and

1511
01:14:25,680 --> 01:14:27,760
Speaker 2: they figured out some stuff on the offensive line. They

1512
01:14:27,800 --> 01:14:30,920
Speaker 2: struggled in the opener against an FCS team Cordero and

1513
01:14:30,960 --> 01:14:33,960
Speaker 2: a new offense with new receivers, but the Wyoming defense

1514
01:14:34,000 --> 01:14:37,040
Speaker 2: has been a disaster. They had a fluke winn over Tulsa,

1515
01:14:37,439 --> 01:14:40,160
Speaker 2: and yes they beat air Force, but they know how

1516
01:14:40,160 --> 01:14:41,600
Speaker 2: to defend the triple option. That's a.

1517
01:14:43,479 --> 01:14:43,839
Speaker 3: Players.

1518
01:14:44,040 --> 01:14:45,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, air Force was missing a bunch of starters, but

1519
01:14:45,760 --> 01:14:48,200
Speaker 2: Wyoming always plays, you know in those games, those triple

1520
01:14:48,200 --> 01:14:51,080
Speaker 2: option games can be very high variants. But air Force

1521
01:14:51,120 --> 01:14:53,880
Speaker 2: was missing players. Why Whoelming is a bunch of you know,

1522
01:14:54,040 --> 01:14:56,599
Speaker 2: three point wins then they you know, they were down

1523
01:14:56,600 --> 01:14:59,479
Speaker 2: about ten late against Tulsa and they were down late

1524
01:14:59,479 --> 01:15:03,439
Speaker 2: against their for US and there's just nothing appealing about this. Why.

1525
01:15:03,439 --> 01:15:06,960
Speaker 2: I mean, team Santas the state is much better. Craig

1526
01:15:07,000 --> 01:15:09,320
Speaker 2: Bowls excellent. But I agree, all right, let's move on

1527
01:15:09,360 --> 01:15:12,439
Speaker 2: to our final segment. Let's suck our money favorite money line.

1528
01:15:12,360 --> 01:15:19,080
Speaker 3: Underdogs turning good weekends into great weekends.

1529
01:15:19,560 --> 01:15:23,479
Speaker 2: It's time for the money line parlay. Do you want

1530
01:15:23,520 --> 01:15:24,960
Speaker 2: to ask change it up?

1531
01:15:25,280 --> 01:15:26,479
Speaker 3: You gotta wine we should?

1532
01:15:27,320 --> 01:15:29,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, we should have swept last week. I had o

1533
01:15:29,320 --> 01:15:31,760
Speaker 2: Oregon State. I've had a couple of really bad ones

1534
01:15:31,800 --> 01:15:36,400
Speaker 2: in a couple just heartbreaking ones. Yeah, you can go first.

1535
01:15:36,360 --> 01:15:38,400
Speaker 3: All right, I'll go first. We gonna change it up

1536
01:15:38,400 --> 01:15:40,040
Speaker 3: and get this one to the window. I'm gonna do

1537
01:15:40,160 --> 01:15:42,880
Speaker 3: TCU plus not the plus accident. They're gonna win out right.

1538
01:15:43,560 --> 01:15:45,799
Speaker 3: I'm gonna have a full rite up over on Action Network,

1539
01:15:45,880 --> 01:15:49,120
Speaker 3: so make sure and check that out. But listen, Kansas

1540
01:15:49,160 --> 01:15:52,960
Speaker 3: State asked Adrian Martinez to do more. They asked them

1541
01:15:52,960 --> 01:15:55,479
Speaker 3: to run more, They asked them to pass more. The result,

1542
01:15:55,840 --> 01:15:58,800
Speaker 3: he had four rushing touchdowns on the ground. Oklahoma had

1543
01:15:58,920 --> 01:16:02,840
Speaker 3: absolutely no answers. It was a blitz by Kansas State

1544
01:16:02,880 --> 01:16:06,120
Speaker 3: and a dual threat. Quarterback Venables commented earlier this week,

1545
01:16:06,400 --> 01:16:09,840
Speaker 3: the linebacker unit for my defense is an issue. We

1546
01:16:09,960 --> 01:16:13,120
Speaker 3: have no depth and there's no chance for playing any freshmen.

1547
01:16:14,000 --> 01:16:16,280
Speaker 3: OU is now one hundred and tenth in defensive line yards,

1548
01:16:16,360 --> 01:16:18,880
Speaker 3: anybody can run on them in the trench. They are

1549
01:16:18,920 --> 01:16:21,680
Speaker 3: outside the top seventy five and success rate. And now

1550
01:16:21,720 --> 01:16:25,960
Speaker 3: you got Max Duggan coming in like another explosive dual

1551
01:16:26,000 --> 01:16:31,080
Speaker 3: threat quarterback. TCU has almost as many long rushing plays

1552
01:16:31,160 --> 01:16:34,120
Speaker 3: as any team in the nation and they've only played

1553
01:16:34,120 --> 01:16:36,840
Speaker 3: three games, and that is just not going to be

1554
01:16:36,880 --> 01:16:39,880
Speaker 3: good for the Oklahoma defense whatsoever. You can't expect the

1555
01:16:39,920 --> 01:16:43,200
Speaker 3: Sooners to improve against a dual threat quarterback like Max

1556
01:16:43,240 --> 01:16:46,599
Speaker 3: Duggan after what you saw with Adrian Martinez. Now Dylan

1557
01:16:46,600 --> 01:16:48,760
Speaker 3: Gabriel is gonna get his points in this game. The

1558
01:16:48,760 --> 01:16:52,000
Speaker 3: Oklahoma offense is going to score against his TCUD. SMU

1559
01:16:52,120 --> 01:16:54,720
Speaker 3: was mounting a comeback, but they just did not have

1560
01:16:54,840 --> 01:16:57,760
Speaker 3: enough pieces to get there. Oklahoma does. Oklahoma's gonna be

1561
01:16:57,760 --> 01:17:01,200
Speaker 3: their shot for shot. But the fact that you know

1562
01:17:01,439 --> 01:17:05,640
Speaker 3: Oklahoma is incapable of stopping TCU means they're gonna be

1563
01:17:05,640 --> 01:17:08,360
Speaker 3: playing catch up the entire day. This game is gonna

1564
01:17:08,360 --> 01:17:11,720
Speaker 3: come down to whatever offense stops themselves. And right now,

1565
01:17:11,760 --> 01:17:15,680
Speaker 3: considering the Quinton Johnson owns Oklahoma in this series, I

1566
01:17:15,720 --> 01:17:18,439
Speaker 3: don't see TCU stop scoring at any point in this game.

1567
01:17:18,479 --> 01:17:21,559
Speaker 3: Give me the Frogs to send the Sooners to zero

1568
01:17:21,600 --> 01:17:23,280
Speaker 3: to two in Big Twelve Conference play.

1569
01:17:24,120 --> 01:17:27,320
Speaker 2: Sooners six and twelve against the Spreaders road favorites since

1570
01:17:27,400 --> 01:17:30,000
Speaker 2: twenty seventeen. By the way, Ah yeah, I agree with

1571
01:17:30,040 --> 01:17:32,080
Speaker 2: you here. I'm just waiting on that seven to see

1572
01:17:32,120 --> 01:17:35,760
Speaker 2: if the pops. I'm gonna go with Troy Troy money

1573
01:17:35,800 --> 01:17:38,240
Speaker 2: line against Western Kentucky. This is one of the first

1574
01:17:38,240 --> 01:17:40,960
Speaker 2: bets I made earlier this week as well. I saw

1575
01:17:41,000 --> 01:17:42,519
Speaker 2: the five and a half and I said, what why

1576
01:17:42,560 --> 01:17:44,720
Speaker 2: is this line five and a half? I They're gonna

1577
01:17:44,720 --> 01:17:47,519
Speaker 2: be my round, Robbins. I like the money line. Western

1578
01:17:47,600 --> 01:17:52,280
Speaker 2: Kentucky is the definition of you know, overinflated in the

1579
01:17:52,280 --> 01:17:55,280
Speaker 2: market due to flawed perception. They've been great. If you

1580
01:17:55,280 --> 01:17:57,080
Speaker 2: look at all their offensive numbers, they're elite, but we

1581
01:17:57,120 --> 01:17:59,479
Speaker 2: know they lost Zappi in a bunch of pieces and

1582
01:17:59,560 --> 01:18:02,000
Speaker 2: on both sides of the ball. Here's where they beat

1583
01:18:02,080 --> 01:18:06,479
Speaker 2: here's their three wins. Florida International. It's a it's a

1584
01:18:06,520 --> 01:18:09,960
Speaker 2: middle school team. Literally, they're outside the top two hundred.

1585
01:18:10,120 --> 01:18:12,120
Speaker 2: I think if you include FCS schools, they're not a

1586
01:18:12,160 --> 01:18:16,040
Speaker 2: top two hundred team. Hawaii. Hawaii might be just as bad.

1587
01:18:16,080 --> 01:18:19,120
Speaker 2: As Florida International there are, they might be outside the

1588
01:18:19,120 --> 01:18:22,240
Speaker 2: top two hundred and Austin P. Austin P, by the way,

1589
01:18:22,320 --> 01:18:26,880
Speaker 2: is significantly better than both Hawaii and Florida International, and

1590
01:18:26,960 --> 01:18:29,439
Speaker 2: Austin P was in that game until very late. But

1591
01:18:29,479 --> 01:18:32,880
Speaker 2: everyone seems to forget that. Everyone seems to just see

1592
01:18:32,920 --> 01:18:38,200
Speaker 2: Western Kentucky blowing out. Maybe even grade school teams. Florida

1593
01:18:38,200 --> 01:18:40,640
Speaker 2: and NAS. Florida International should be banished.

1594
01:18:41,280 --> 01:18:44,679
Speaker 3: They don't even have any pads. They had pads.

1595
01:18:45,400 --> 01:18:49,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's a joke. And Hawaii is all right.

1596
01:18:49,360 --> 01:18:51,679
Speaker 2: Hawaii gave up I think fifty to New Mexico State

1597
01:18:51,760 --> 01:18:54,720
Speaker 2: last week. It's five hundred yards said that I'm going

1598
01:18:54,760 --> 01:18:57,240
Speaker 2: to my priors here. I haven't done much with Western Kentucky.

1599
01:18:57,920 --> 01:18:59,759
Speaker 2: Troy is supposed to be really good, one of the

1600
01:19:00,320 --> 01:19:03,120
Speaker 2: I thought a sleeper in the sun Belt. By the

1601
01:19:03,160 --> 01:19:06,080
Speaker 2: way they beat Marshall. They should have beat app State

1602
01:19:06,160 --> 01:19:08,640
Speaker 2: if not for a hail Mary, and they lost that

1603
01:19:08,680 --> 01:19:11,360
Speaker 2: old mess. One of the best defenses of the group

1604
01:19:11,360 --> 01:19:14,439
Speaker 2: of five level led by Carlton Marshall. I think that

1605
01:19:14,560 --> 01:19:16,960
Speaker 2: they can contain this Western Kentucky offense, which is gonna

1606
01:19:16,960 --> 01:19:19,160
Speaker 2: be in for a rude awakening going from the clown

1607
01:19:19,200 --> 01:19:22,479
Speaker 2: shows that they've faced to this Troy defense. And then

1608
01:19:22,479 --> 01:19:24,559
Speaker 2: I think Troy will have some success moving the ball

1609
01:19:24,560 --> 01:19:31,280
Speaker 2: against this Western Kentucky defense. This game's quintlip. If not,

1610
01:19:31,479 --> 01:19:35,360
Speaker 2: Troy should be favored slightly. Give me the Trojans. So

1611
01:19:35,400 --> 01:19:41,360
Speaker 2: we're going Trojans and Frogs. Let's get it done this week.

1612
01:19:42,040 --> 01:19:45,040
Speaker 2: All right, that'll do it for us. Thanks as always

1613
01:19:45,080 --> 01:19:47,080
Speaker 2: the column for joining me. Thanks to all of you

1614
01:19:47,120 --> 01:19:49,760
Speaker 2: for listening. Make sure you subscribe on subscribe, subscribe, Tell

1615
01:19:49,760 --> 01:19:51,920
Speaker 2: a friend, tell an enemy, leave a five star review.

1616
01:19:52,560 --> 01:19:55,400
Speaker 2: Really appreciate those they help us out a ton. Any

1617
01:19:55,400 --> 01:19:59,360
Speaker 2: giveaways producer throw in now mention who has to contact

1618
01:19:59,439 --> 01:20:01,160
Speaker 2: us to get some good any five star review you

1619
01:20:01,240 --> 01:20:02,960
Speaker 2: say whatever, Thank you Stucky.

1620
01:20:03,040 --> 01:20:05,759
Speaker 7: Yes, a number of winners this week. Thank you again

1621
01:20:05,800 --> 01:20:08,679
Speaker 7: to everyone for sending in these five star reviews.

1622
01:20:08,920 --> 01:20:09,960
Speaker 2: First winner is.

1623
01:20:10,520 --> 01:20:15,320
Speaker 7: Go Tigers nineteen n C his review weekly must listen.

1624
01:20:15,720 --> 01:20:20,479
Speaker 7: Next one Steve Boynton VT awesome podcast for hardcore and

1625
01:20:20,560 --> 01:20:24,719
Speaker 7: casual college football fans. T Gavin two with your review

1626
01:20:24,920 --> 01:20:30,200
Speaker 7: so good juice er review a better Better, claiming that

1627
01:20:30,600 --> 01:20:32,920
Speaker 7: we've made you a better better and for that a

1628
01:20:32,960 --> 01:20:38,040
Speaker 7: better husband and father couldn't agree more. Boom Pilot, thank

1629
01:20:38,080 --> 01:20:40,479
Speaker 7: you for your review, five out a five and t.

1630
01:20:41,040 --> 01:20:45,840
Speaker 5: Shaefer, Stucky and Klug in full effect. Thanks to all

1631
01:20:45,880 --> 01:20:50,160
Speaker 5: of our five star reviewers and to our winners. Please

1632
01:20:50,320 --> 01:20:54,639
Speaker 5: email me at podcasts at actionnetwork dot com to claim

1633
01:20:54,680 --> 01:20:57,880
Speaker 5: your prize. And to be clear, we are absolutely not

1634
01:20:58,200 --> 01:21:00,479
Speaker 5: a dj Uiung Dealele podcast.

1635
01:21:01,160 --> 01:21:04,080
Speaker 2: If you're going dumpster diving with me this week, best

1636
01:21:04,080 --> 01:21:07,240
Speaker 2: of luck to us. Follow us all on the Action

1637
01:21:07,280 --> 01:21:09,280
Speaker 2: Network ap make sure you download that. Make sure you

1638
01:21:09,320 --> 01:21:11,599
Speaker 2: download the update if you already have it, some really

1639
01:21:11,640 --> 01:21:15,800
Speaker 2: good new features. Tune in ten thirty am Eastern Big

1640
01:21:15,840 --> 01:21:19,920
Speaker 2: Bets on Campus live on Twitter, myself, Brett McMurphy, Colm Wilson.

1641
01:21:19,960 --> 01:21:22,240
Speaker 2: We'll go over the card. Can I be back Monday

1642
01:21:22,439 --> 01:21:25,800
Speaker 2: reviewing the awesome weekend Slate that we have a group

1643
01:21:25,840 --> 01:21:29,320
Speaker 2: of five guys. Their episodes already out comes out every Wednesday,

1644
01:21:29,680 --> 01:21:32,120
Speaker 2: the new BCS. We're changing the format a little bit.

1645
01:21:32,120 --> 01:21:34,559
Speaker 2: We'll have a little bit more actual info from the weekend.

1646
01:21:34,720 --> 01:21:37,360
Speaker 2: Make sure you tune into that. Still some bullshitting around

1647
01:21:37,360 --> 01:21:40,120
Speaker 2: about college football, but that'll be out on Tuesdays. We'll

1648
01:21:40,120 --> 01:21:43,120
Speaker 2: talk some injury updates, the box score, of frauds. Look

1649
01:21:43,160 --> 01:21:45,000
Speaker 2: ahead to the you know, once we get more weekedads

1650
01:21:45,000 --> 01:21:46,920
Speaker 2: were looking ahead of those as well, so having a

1651
01:21:46,920 --> 01:21:50,479
Speaker 2: really fun time doing that. Appreciate all of your support.

1652
01:21:50,600 --> 01:21:53,479
Speaker 2: Let's have a weekend. Can't wait for the slate. We'll

1653
01:21:53,520 --> 01:21:54,040
Speaker 2: catch you all later.

1654
01:21:54,160 --> 01:21:55,360
Speaker 3: Cheers, peace out,