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Speaker 2: You're in studio on Super Tuesday Balance of Power. I'm
Speaker 2: Joe Matthew in Washington as we add the voice of
Speaker 2: Jennifer Nassour, the aforementioned Republican strategist and former chairwoman of
Speaker 2: the Massachusetts Republican Party, back with us here on the program.
Speaker 2: Last time we spoke Jen was on New Hampshire primary eve,
Speaker 2: and there was still a feel that Nicki Haley could
Speaker 2: make a dent here going into South Carolina and into
Speaker 2: Super Tuesday. Is it fair to call this the last
Speaker 2: stand for Nicki Haley? How are you looking at her
Speaker 2: chances tonight? If Vermont is the state we're focused on,
Speaker 2: I don't.
Speaker 3: Think coming from mass Chusetts, I am feeling like Vermont's
Speaker 3: not the state that we're focused on. However, she did
Speaker 3: get the endorsement of the Governor of Vermont. She did
Speaker 3: get the endorsement of Susan Collins and Maine. And in
Speaker 3: Massachusetts we have sixty four percent of our electorate are
Speaker 3: actually unenrolled voters. And we see that both parties, Republican
Speaker 3: and Democratic parties have lost voters in the last year,
Speaker 3: which I think speaks volumes about where both parties have
Speaker 3: been going and the messaging from the super far right
Speaker 3: MAGA and from the super far left Progressives. And so
Speaker 3: I think she's going to have a great night here.
Speaker 3: I think in Virginia, you see what happen in d C.
Speaker 3: That you know, most of the most of the people
Speaker 3: who work in DC live in Virginia, So I think
Speaker 3: there's a carry over there. So I think that Nicky
Speaker 3: is going to do really well tonight. And it's far
Speaker 3: it's far from over. I mean, listen, anyone can do math.
Speaker 3: If you do math, the magic number is twelve hundred
Speaker 3: and fifteen and Donald Trump is only at two hundred
Speaker 3: and forty.
Speaker 4: There's a long way to go there.
Speaker 3: And so tonight there are eight hundred and seventy four
Speaker 3: delegates up for takes, and so we'll see how she
Speaker 3: fares tonight.
Speaker 4: That she's not going anywhere. She was here this weekend.
Speaker 3: In Massachusetts read over one thousand people at a rally
Speaker 3: for her. We had a fundraiser for her, raise a
Speaker 3: ton of money. Donors are coming, new faces are coming out,
Speaker 3: people are energized. From Massachusetts. She went from North Carolina
Speaker 3: to Massachusetts, Massachusetts, to Vermont and to Maine. The woman
Speaker 3: has done almost eighty six hundred miles in ten days.
Speaker 3: I don't think Donald Trump has done eighty six hundred
Speaker 3: miles in the last eight years.
Speaker 1: No, I know.
Speaker 2: Yet he continues to dominate in the polls and he's
Speaker 2: going to steam through, steamroll through states like Texas and
Speaker 2: California tonight. I appreciate your passion, and it's contagious, Jen,
Speaker 2: But you know, we had Chris Sanunu on with us
Speaker 2: last night talking about a closing window. The path could
Speaker 2: get a lot more difficult after tonight, Right, how do
Speaker 2: you see that continuing through the next couple of weeks.
Speaker 3: So, look, you know, anyone who's run for office before
Speaker 3: or been involved in a campaign, you know that you
Speaker 3: need two things.
Speaker 4: You need the volunteers and you need the.
Speaker 3: Donors because those are the two things that actually make
Speaker 3: the campaign continue to move. And so as long as
Speaker 3: the volunteers aren't going anywhere, and I can tell you
Speaker 3: people will follow Nicky anywhere she goes. That's number one
Speaker 3: and number two those donors, like I said, I had
Speaker 3: a full room of new faces on Saturday night. I
Speaker 3: think that that is something that you know you cannot replicate.
Speaker 4: And at the end of the day, Trump listen.
Speaker 3: Seventy percent of the country doesn't want another Biden Trump showdown.
Speaker 3: Sixty percent believe both Biden and Trump are too old
Speaker 3: to be in office, and forty percent of voters continuously
Speaker 3: say that they do not want Donald Trump to be
Speaker 3: the nominee of the Republican Party.
Speaker 4: And that's not crazy ary general electorate. That's forty percent
Speaker 4: of Republican voters.
Speaker 2: Sure, that's the curse of this primary season for Republicans
Speaker 2: like you. Though if the whole country were like Massachusetts,
Speaker 2: we'd be having maybe a more deliberate conversation here. But
Speaker 2: he's thirty and forty points ahead in the polls that
Speaker 2: seem to count here. So is this another kind of
Speaker 2: momentum play? You see her making a dent tonight and
Speaker 2: then going to a state like Florida. I'm just trying
Speaker 2: to figure out how you get through the primary against
Speaker 2: Donald Trump. You can make the case that she's a
Speaker 2: better candidate against Joe Biden. But this is a tough
Speaker 2: time now, isn't it.
Speaker 3: Well, I think Republican Republican primary voters need to wake
Speaker 3: up quite frankly, listen. At the end of the day,
Speaker 3: you can win a playoff, but are you going to
Speaker 3: win the championship?
Speaker 4: And the answer is no. With Donald Trump.
Speaker 3: In a Fox News poll came out the other day,
Speaker 3: he was two to three points ahead of Joe Biden.
Speaker 3: That is within the margin of error. That is any
Speaker 3: bad news story, we'll sink that campaign. Whereas Nikki Haley
Speaker 3: is eight to eighteen points depending on the poll, and
Speaker 3: that is exactly where she has continued to be this
Speaker 3: entire time. So if you do not want another Joe
Speaker 3: b administration, if you do not want a Kamala Harris administration,
Speaker 3: then you need to vote for Nicki Haley because you
Speaker 3: have an opportunity to actually put someone on the ballot
Speaker 3: that you want right now in November, you have no choice.
Speaker 3: You have a choice between the two people who have
Speaker 3: been selected for you.
Speaker 2: This is why I know you love hearing conversations about
Speaker 2: no labels and third parties. If we end up with
Speaker 2: Donald Trump and Joe Biden, anything could happen there, knowing
Speaker 2: to your point that polls suggest that voters want an alternative. Here,
Speaker 2: we're spending time with Jennifer Nassour, the former Massachusetts Republican
Speaker 2: Party chair Republican strategist. Talk to us about issues while
Speaker 2: you're here, Jen, because it's obviously driving decisions. This evening
Speaker 2: in New Hampshire, we were talking about immigration in a
Speaker 2: state not typically associated with our southwest border, maybe the
Speaker 2: Canadian border, but we've also added abortion since Joe Biden
Speaker 2: was elected because of Roe v.
Speaker 5: Wade.
Speaker 2: You've spoken passionately about the impact it had on the
Speaker 2: midterm and other races since then, and then of course
Speaker 2: the economy. What are voters carrying into the booth tonight
Speaker 2: or is it not a monolith? Is it different issues
Speaker 2: in different states.
Speaker 3: I think it's the same issues. It's just how they're
Speaker 3: focused and how they're tailored. Right, So I know here
Speaker 3: in Massachusetts where sanctuary state. Unfortunately, and here's what happened.
Speaker 3: All the migrants came to Massachusetts so that way they
Speaker 3: could find housing and whatever line they were pitched by
Speaker 3: the administration, they came here and now they're kicking out
Speaker 3: our senior citizens and our veterans from their housing. They
Speaker 3: kicked out children from a rec center in one of
Speaker 3: the most difficult neighborhoods in the city of Boston. So
Speaker 3: kids were displaced in the middle of winter, without any
Speaker 3: place to go, thrown out on the street where there's
Speaker 3: gang violence, there's drugs. It was unbelievable to house two
Speaker 3: to three hundred migrants. They took over a hotel and
Speaker 3: one of the suburbs and then they to house migrants,
Speaker 3: and then they opened up a restaurant that had been
Speaker 3: shuttered as a catering facility. That is all on the
Speaker 3: backs of the taxpayers. And so I think the immigration
Speaker 3: issue is an issue for everyone, but it's it's how
Speaker 3: it affects everyone in Massachusetts. The most important issue is
Speaker 3: always the economy, but that immigration issue is absolutely affecting
Speaker 3: our bottom line here. The abortion issue is going to
Speaker 3: continue to be and if Republicans don't wake up and
Speaker 3: adopt Nikki Haley's view and platform on abortion, we are
Speaker 3: a dead party because at the end of the day,
Speaker 3: women will always care about this issue. It is always
Speaker 3: going to be a big issue. May not be the
Speaker 3: number one issue, but it will always continue to be
Speaker 3: an issue. We need to have real conversations with women
Speaker 3: around the country about what can realistically happen and our
Speaker 3: own views and how that affects policy, and how government
Speaker 3: should stay out of your bedroom.
Speaker 2: Jen I've got less than a minute. Does Nicki Haley
Speaker 2: need to win some thing tonight to keep going in
Speaker 2: this race?
Speaker 3: She just needs twin delegates. As long as she keeps
Speaker 3: Seligates away from Donald Trump, she stays.
Speaker 4: In the race.
Speaker 2: There you have it, Jennifer and the sort's good to
Speaker 2: see again. Republican Strategists former chair of the Republican Party
Speaker 2: in Massachusett's with the view from the Northeast where a
Speaker 2: lot of us are going to be looking tonight to
Speaker 2: see the performance of Nikki Haley here on this Super Tuesday.
Speaker 2: I'm glad you're with us.
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Speaker 6: It's going to be a long evening, Joe, of course,
Speaker 6: because it will actually be well into tomorrow Eastern time
Speaker 6: when the last polls close in Alaska. But we kind
Speaker 6: of have a sense we think of how ultimately this
Speaker 6: is going to end, which essentially is the general election
Speaker 6: contest for all intents and purposes beginning after That's right.
Speaker 2: We kind of said that coming out of New Hampshire,
Speaker 2: and this has been seen as a bit anticlimactic, but
Speaker 2: the math will be impossible to ignore. It appears after tonight, Kaylee.
Speaker 2: If the polls are correct and Donald Trump has the
Speaker 2: commanding lead that he currently enjoys on paper. To your
Speaker 2: point earlier, it'll be mathematically impossible for Nikki Haley to
Speaker 2: pull this off. So the question is why would you
Speaker 2: keep going? And we'll help to answer that together, I
Speaker 2: guess over the coming days.
Speaker 6: Yeah, of course, we have the consideration that financially, she
Speaker 6: very well could. She's still pulling in millions of dollars
Speaker 6: from donors. But will people still be willing to throw
Speaker 6: good money at her if she has no real clear path.
Speaker 7: To the nomination?
Speaker 6: Would donors continue if it's just in case money? Essentially,
Speaker 6: if it's just a question of whether or not Trump
Speaker 6: is ultimately going to be able to serve as the
Speaker 6: nominee depending on what happens in his myriad legal cases.
Speaker 2: Well, that's true, and after we heard from the Supreme
Speaker 2: Court on the issue of immunity, there might not be
Speaker 2: a just in case strategy for her. Let's bring in
Speaker 2: Gregory Cordy, now Bloomberg News politics reporter who's been steeped
Speaker 2: in all things campaign since long before the voting started.
Speaker 2: Happy Super Tuesday, sir. Is it the feeling super to you?
Speaker 8: Or is this coronation like anti coimactic Tuesday? And you
Speaker 8: know Super Tuesdays have come in all different kinds of
Speaker 8: flavors over the years, right, Sometimes they're a little earlier,
Speaker 8: sometimes there are later. Sometimes they're competitive on one side
Speaker 8: but not the other. This one seems especially like we
Speaker 8: have front loaded a lot of the primaries where we
Speaker 8: know the outcome of this, but we have one candidate,
Speaker 8: Nikki Haley, who is committed to playing out the string
Speaker 8: at least through Super Tuesday. I love it because as
Speaker 8: a data guy, it gives me more data points to
Speaker 8: really sort of it's a check on the polls, right,
Speaker 8: to see how reliable the polls have been, how strong.
Speaker 8: This anti Trump sentiment is from within the Republican Party.
Speaker 8: We get to test a lot of hypotheses as we
Speaker 8: go deeper into this the primaries, but we're one thing
Speaker 8: we're not looking for tonight is any sort of indication
Speaker 8: of who the Republican nominee is. I think we know
Speaker 8: that already well.
Speaker 6: We spoke with one of Nicki Haley's perhaps most vocal surrogates,
Speaker 6: a New Hampshire governor, Chris san Unu, yesterday, after Nicki
Speaker 6: Haley had said in a few interviews that she would
Speaker 6: stay in the race if she were to be competitive.
Speaker 6: She didn't define what competitive means. He was a little
Speaker 6: reluctant to define what it means, though He did point
Speaker 6: to the fact that she's gotten north of forty percent
Speaker 6: in states like his state, New Hampshire, and north of
Speaker 6: twenty percent in others. And I wonder if those numbers
Speaker 6: aren't as meaningful really for Nicki Haley, because it doesn't
Speaker 6: change the outcome if she's not winning states in terms
Speaker 6: of the delicate math for the most part, but more
Speaker 6: influential when it comes to thinking about Donald Trump's strength
Speaker 6: as a candidate, because if you have twenty to forty
Speaker 6: percent of the Republican primary electric choosing not you. What
Speaker 6: does that signal as you had into a really long
Speaker 6: general election battle with an incumbenty Yeah.
Speaker 8: And one of the things that I looked at yesterday,
Speaker 8: I looked at the polling averages from five point thirty
Speaker 8: eight going into each of these early contests Iowa, New Hampshire,
Speaker 8: South Carolina, and Michigan. And in each one of them,
Speaker 8: Ki Haley overperformed the expectations and in at least New Hampshire,
Speaker 8: South Carolina and Michigan significantly so by four or five
Speaker 8: six points. And so that I think is part of
Speaker 8: what's fueling her campaign is that she gets a little
Speaker 8: bit of bounce every time she does that. Obviously, it's
Speaker 8: not helping her with picking up delegates. Super Tuesday is
Speaker 8: where the rubber is going to meet the road here,
Speaker 8: because if she doesn't pick up a significant amount of
Speaker 8: delegates tonight, it looks like Trump will be on track
Speaker 8: to clinch the nomination. She can't clinch it mathematically tonight,
Speaker 8: but he can by March twelfth, of the earliest. If
Speaker 8: she does well, she can push that date back to
Speaker 8: March nineteenth. But that's as much as she can do, really,
Speaker 8: but look, there's two reasons why candidates drop out. One
Speaker 8: is they run out of money, and the other is
Speaker 8: they want a job in the next administration. Nicky Haley
Speaker 8: continues to raise money, and it looks like she's foreclosed
Speaker 8: working for President Trump again. She was, of course as
Speaker 8: un ambassador in the first Trump administration, and so she
Speaker 8: at this point doesn't really have much motivation to drop out.
Speaker 2: So maybe you've got that whole sort of halo effect
Speaker 2: as a candidate in waiting and surging candidates something like that.
Speaker 2: Can she keep that on a low boil until twenty
Speaker 2: twenty eight?
Speaker 8: I think that will depend on how well former President
Speaker 8: Trump does in November. If Joe Biden wins despite all
Speaker 8: of the weaknesses we all know that Joe Biden has,
Speaker 8: then I think there's going to be some serious soul
Speaker 8: searching in the Republican Party, and Nikki Haley can come
Speaker 8: and say, look, I was the one who told you so,
Speaker 8: we need to rebuild this party as a new post
Speaker 8: Trump party, and I'm the person to do that. If
Speaker 8: Trump wins, I don't know that I see quite that
Speaker 8: opportunity for her, because then Trump win in November would
Speaker 8: fully cement the Trump takeover of the Republican Party, and
Speaker 8: we will be more likely to see candidates in that
Speaker 8: maga mold going forward from Republicans.
Speaker 6: Wow, all right, Gregory Cordy is always covering all things
Speaker 6: politics for us at Bloomberg, going to join us on
Speaker 6: what is going to be a very long day, the
Speaker 6: Super Tuesday.
Speaker 4: Gregory, thank you so much.
Speaker 6: And we want to turn now to another person who
Speaker 6: is following all of these races across the country very closely.
Speaker 6: David Palielogos is joining us now from Suffolk University, where
Speaker 6: he is the director of their Political Research Center. David,
Speaker 6: great to have you on the show. We were just
Speaker 6: hearing from Gregory about a number of states in which
Speaker 6: sure Nikki Haley did not win the Republican contest, but
Speaker 6: she did perform better than expected. If that were to
Speaker 6: show up anywhere tonight, where would you expect Nicki Haley
Speaker 6: to possibly outperform?
Speaker 9: If it were to show up, she would probably do
Speaker 9: better in Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine, Virginia. Those are the states
Speaker 9: that I would be looking at. The other states less so,
Speaker 9: and maybe Utah.
Speaker 2: You're up there in New England, David, A sense of
Speaker 2: Republican politics in a state like Massachusetts, or a look
Speaker 2: north to Vermont or Maine. This tells us a lot
Speaker 2: when we're looking to New England states to gauge the
Speaker 2: strength of a Republican candidate, doesn't it?
Speaker 7: Oh?
Speaker 9: Absolutely, I mean, when was the last time electoral votes
Speaker 9: were won by a Republican in any of those states?
Speaker 9: Maybe in one congressional district in Maine, and where you
Speaker 9: have independents who can vote, then you have a recipe
Speaker 9: for a possible upset. But even in our polling, and
Speaker 9: which was over a month ago, so.
Speaker 5: It's it's you know, it's old.
Speaker 9: Trump was still prevailing in Massachusetts, and you know he's
Speaker 9: heavily favored to win. I wouldn't be surprised if you
Speaker 9: know he was around one thousand a thousand by the
Speaker 9: end of the night, and Haley was in the one
Speaker 9: hundred and something twenty five or one point fifty. So
Speaker 9: you're looking at no matter how you slice it, you're
Speaker 9: looking at a seven eight, nine to one ratio of
Speaker 9: Trump delegates to Haley delegates.
Speaker 6: Well, David, of course, Nikki Haley when we've heard her
Speaker 6: campaigning recently, is she's committed to stay in the race
Speaker 6: through at least today's contest. She said, look at the
Speaker 6: numbers that I'm pulling. I understand being an accountant that
Speaker 6: forty percent is not fifty percent, But forty percent is
Speaker 6: not a small number. I'm paraphrasing a word she spoke
Speaker 6: after South Carolina, her home state, where she was still
Speaker 6: resoundingly defeated by Trump. But when we think about that number,
Speaker 6: she's referring to those individuals that are picking her over
Speaker 6: Trump in this primary contest, where are they likely to
Speaker 6: go in a general election? Is it as problematic for
Speaker 6: a Trump general election candidacy as we might think.
Speaker 9: We won't know that until the number settle, until after
Speaker 9: Nikki Haley, you know, gets out of the race.
Speaker 5: It depends state to state.
Speaker 9: I mean some states where Democrats were voting, they were
Speaker 9: never going to vote for Trump, they were just meddling.
Speaker 9: In the case of independence, left leaning independence were probably
Speaker 9: not going to vote Republican. So you really have to
Speaker 9: isolate those subsets to pure independence or right leaning independence.
Speaker 9: And the answer to your question is they could not vote.
Speaker 9: They could vote for.
Speaker 5: Joe Biden, or more likely they could vote third party.
Speaker 2: What are you going to be looking at then? When
Speaker 2: we get through that first time zone. David, We've got
Speaker 2: the two most populous states involved here in Texas and California.
Speaker 2: That's where Donald Trump starts to put this in the bag, right.
Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean, the more the night wears on, the
Speaker 9: worse it's going to be for Haley. And I've heard
Speaker 9: today recently that Haley has canceled a couple of appearances
Speaker 9: today campaign stops, and she's settled back into South Carolina.
Speaker 9: That to me is a signal. And Joe, you know
Speaker 9: this better than anybody, that she's crafting a speech, whatever
Speaker 9: that speech says. They're working on, you know, a speech
Speaker 9: to set herself up for whatever lies ahead in the future,
Speaker 9: whether it's twenty twenty eight or something else.
Speaker 2: Are you surprised nothing scheduled tonight? We understand she has
Speaker 2: not scheduled a speech, David. Does that mean if you
Speaker 2: hear of a late announcement that might be significant.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 9: No, I haven't heard of an announcement, but I've heard
Speaker 9: that she is pulled back today from some of her appearances.
Speaker 9: She is in South Carolina, and she is presumably working
Speaker 9: on her next her strategy. Either she's in talks with
Speaker 9: funders to find out whether or not what's the best
Speaker 9: case scenario for them to stay in financially or not.
Speaker 9: But obviously she doesn't want to be distracted by doing
Speaker 9: a couple of events and making a poor career decision.
Speaker 9: So they're probably, you know, sort of taking the deep breath.
Speaker 9: She's circling with her in her advisors to figure out
Speaker 9: what the best approach is.
Speaker 6: Well, as you talk about potential other strategies she could pursue.
Speaker 6: I wonder if that could theoretically include a third party,
Speaker 6: which you were just reverencing some Nicki Haley primary voters
Speaker 6: mand of voting for a third party come the general
Speaker 6: in November. We know No Labels has been interested in
Speaker 6: her Nicki Haley seems to have suggested that she doesn't
Speaker 6: have interest in it in return, but No Labels has
Speaker 6: consistently said David that Super Tuesday after that is when
Speaker 6: they make the call whether they're going to run a
Speaker 6: unity ticket. Do you see a path for them.
Speaker 5: For No Labels?
Speaker 9: I mean I see a path for any third party
Speaker 9: candidate to to harness significant amounts of votes in swing
Speaker 9: states to turn the election.
Speaker 5: No Labels being one, RFK Junior.
Speaker 9: Being one Green Party being one Libertarian and Cornel West.
Speaker 9: And it really depends on what candidates' parties make what
Speaker 9: state ballots, because we know from twenty sixteen to twenty
Speaker 9: twenty that the presence of third party candidates directly impacted
Speaker 9: the outcome. I have to take Nikki Haley out her
Speaker 9: word that she's not going to pursue a no labels
Speaker 9: option because she's a Republican. The moment she does that,
Speaker 9: than any future within the Republican infrastructure is pretty much gone.
Speaker 5: And I don't know that she wants to risk that
Speaker 5: at her rage.
Speaker 2: Right now, we're spending some time with David Peliologos and
Speaker 2: Suffolk University Political Research Center director on this Super Tuesday.
Speaker 2: A little later this hour, David, we're going to bring
Speaker 2: our conversation with Chris Sinunu. He's obviously in a delicate
Speaker 2: situation here talking about a candidate who may have some
Speaker 2: very difficult decisions to make. What is his political legacy
Speaker 2: here for backing Nikki Haley so passionately speaking against Donald
Speaker 2: Trump openly as a term limited governor now going into
Speaker 2: the next chapter of his career.
Speaker 9: I got to believe that people may say he comes
Speaker 9: off as a loser I think he's one of the
Speaker 9: big winners of twenty twenty four personally, and I don't
Speaker 9: know him. It's not, you know, a personal thing, but
Speaker 9: I'm just looking at what he did in New Hampshire
Speaker 9: for her was amazing. To bring her literally within eleven
Speaker 9: points of Donald Trump in New Hampshire was an amazing
Speaker 9: feat coming off of Iowa.
Speaker 5: I mean they identified neighborhood.
Speaker 9: By neighborhood, every independent that was anti Trump and pulled
Speaker 9: them out. That kind of feat. Forget Washington, d C.
Speaker 9: And forget even her home state. She didn't even get
Speaker 9: forty percent in South Carolina, as I recall, you know,
Speaker 9: she did.
Speaker 5: Better in New Hampshire.
Speaker 9: So what he did in New Hampshire, I take my
Speaker 9: hat off to him. I think he comes off as
Speaker 9: being loyal to her and to his own principles, and
Speaker 9: I think he sets himself up potentially for opportunities.
Speaker 5: May not be in twenty twenty eight, but it could
Speaker 5: be also.
Speaker 6: All right, David Pelli Logos joining us from Suffolk University,
Speaker 6: thank you so much. As always, it was such an
Speaker 6: interesting conversation Joe with Kristin who knew the governor last night,
Speaker 6: essentially still defending Nikki Haley staunchly saying that she is
Speaker 6: his candidate. He's still very much backing her, and yet
Speaker 6: still says that he will support Trump should he be
Speaker 6: the Republican nominee, despite what did he say to us,
Speaker 6: Trump kicking dirt in the face of Republicans everywhere.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, we'll bring you a bit of that conversation
Speaker 2: coming up a little bit later on this hour of
Speaker 2: Balance of Power with the Governor of New Hampshire. Be
Speaker 2: curious to hear what he's thinking tomorrow, Keiley. First, our panel,
Speaker 2: Rick Davis is going to be with us coming up here,
Speaker 2: and a special Super Tuesday panel with Brad Howard Races
Speaker 2: to watch tonight. They'll lay out the roadmap.
Speaker 5: Kayley.
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's not just presidential there's a lot down ballot
Speaker 6: to consider as well, so we'll have more on that next.
Speaker 6: This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
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Speaker 2: We turn to our panel today. We've got a good
Speaker 2: one on this Super Tuesday. Rick Davis is with us,
Speaker 2: of course, Republican strategist, Bloomberg Politics contributor, and Brad Howard
Speaker 2: from Corcoran Street Group Democratic analysts here too. Gentlemen, great
Speaker 2: to have you with us on Super Tuesday. Rick, the
Speaker 2: down ballot race, I think where Kayley is going here
Speaker 2: will likely be a lot more interesting than what we
Speaker 2: see on the presidential level. Is that all you need
Speaker 2: to know going into this Super Tuesday?
Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean you actually don't know what the outcome
Speaker 10: is going to be on these down ballot races. We
Speaker 10: know what the outcome is going to be in the
Speaker 10: presidential primary, so there at least is some mystique involved
Speaker 10: in the down ballot.
Speaker 6: All right, So, Brad, if you could pick a down
Speaker 6: ballot contest, which one is going to be the most interesting,
Speaker 6: perhaps the most telling of the general feeling going into November.
Speaker 6: As we know, there's also some primaries in which you
Speaker 6: have a more MAGA oriented Trump back candidate, Dence, more
Speaker 6: establishment candidates.
Speaker 4: What's going to be the tell?
Speaker 11: Yeah, I mean I'm looking at Alabama one right there,
Speaker 11: You've got it's the first member on member primary this
Speaker 11: cycle because of redistricting, there's a new seat there. I'm
Speaker 11: also watching who emerges out of that new seat because
Speaker 11: that will be a relatively competitive general election, that new
Speaker 11: Alabama seat.
Speaker 7: So we'll see who emerges.
Speaker 11: On the Democratic side, they are to see who's going
Speaker 11: to take on whoever the Republicans nominate.
Speaker 7: But and then Alabama one seat.
Speaker 11: You've got Jerry carl versus Barry Moore, Marjorie Taylor, Green
Speaker 11: Freedom Caucus on one side, Chamber of Commerce, traditional Republicans
Speaker 11: and the other.
Speaker 7: That'll be a fascinating one to watch for sure.
Speaker 2: That new seat you mentioned is important. At least eleven
Speaker 2: candidates fighting for this newly drawn district. Rick Davis, you
Speaker 2: know Alabama politics pretty well. This is a seat that
Speaker 2: would have been won easily by Joe Biden in twenty
Speaker 2: twenty by more than ten points, it appears. Who are
Speaker 2: you looking at?
Speaker 10: Yeah, it's hard to tell. I mean, anytime you've got
Speaker 10: that many people running in a new district, you know,
Speaker 10: it's it's it's just anybody's guests. I think that the
Speaker 10: one I'm watching is in Texas. Sheila Jackson Lee her opponent,
Speaker 10: Amanda Edwards. They know each other really well. They've worked together.
Speaker 10: Sheila Jackson ran for mayor and did really poorly and
Speaker 10: has made her vulnerable, and I think she could be
Speaker 10: one of the highest profile incumbents going down.
Speaker 6: All right, So clearly a lot to watch outside of
Speaker 6: the presidential contest tonight. But of course, the presidential contest,
Speaker 6: as we know, gentlemen, is going to be what's making
Speaker 6: most of the headlines. And on that note, I want
Speaker 6: to point to a note that came into my inbox
Speaker 6: from Terry Haynes over at Pangea Policy, someone we speak
Speaker 6: to frequently here on Bloomberg TV and Radio, who writes
Speaker 6: that Trump has the same four problems after Super Tuesday
Speaker 6: that he had before it. Ricky says, an enthusiastic base
Speaker 6: that hasn't grown since twenty twenty, a split Republican party
Speaker 6: that's now all that embedded independents aren't for him, and
Speaker 6: Trump encourages all of it.
Speaker 4: Do you agree with that assessment.
Speaker 10: Rick, Yeah, that sounds pretty realistic. I mean, Terry's a
Speaker 10: very smart guy and I wouldn't doubt him on that,
Speaker 10: but those elements are all there and makes it a
Speaker 10: very interesting Contest'd be.
Speaker 2: Very curious to hear about Joe Biden because we're not
Speaker 2: talking about him too much today, Brad. There's a storyline
Speaker 2: in Minnesota, of course about a potential protest vote, But
Speaker 2: he's in primary contests across the country just like Donald
Speaker 2: Trump is. Should he be speaking tonight, he could deliver
Speaker 2: some sort of victory address and warm up for the
Speaker 2: State of the Union, though.
Speaker 7: I mean, if he would like to.
Speaker 11: I think if I'm his prep team, I've got his
Speaker 11: head in the State of the Union, which is much
Speaker 11: more consequential. As we all know, the number of live
Speaker 11: events that Americans will all kind of tune in to
Speaker 11: watch as dramatically declined.
Speaker 7: Sure, because we.
Speaker 11: Saw an appetite for it. We saw the Super Bowl
Speaker 11: highest ratings ever. I think this may be one of
Speaker 11: the highest ratings ever for a State of the Union.
Speaker 11: Because so much is at risk for the president. He's
Speaker 11: got complex situations over abroad, he's got a hyper partisan
Speaker 11: environment here at home. There's a new speaker it's going
Speaker 11: to stand behind him. So there's a lot at stake
Speaker 11: here for the president. He's got to both shorep his base,
Speaker 11: show strength abroad and Latin agenda for another term, and
Speaker 11: so he's a lot of keep his head there where
Speaker 11: it matters. And one quick thing on the Democratic base
Speaker 11: on the note on the protest votes here you looked
Speaker 11: at Michigan, Yeah, there were thirteen that voted for non committed.
Speaker 11: Back in twenty twelve, Obama eleven percent voted non committed
Speaker 11: in Michigan, And of course Obama went on to win
Speaker 11: not only Michigan but the presidency.
Speaker 7: So let's keep things in historical perspective.
Speaker 6: Yeah, but of course we're talking about percentage of the
Speaker 6: overall vote. That actual numbers were a little bit bigger
Speaker 6: in Biden's case this time around. And also, while we're
Speaker 6: talking about that uncommitted vote in Michigan and how it
Speaker 6: could translate elsewhere, it wasn't just in places like Dearborn
Speaker 6: concentrated with you know, heavily Muslim and Arab American populations,
Speaker 6: was also Anne Arbor and East Lansing. I keep coming
Speaker 6: back to this point in Michigan State, the University of Michigan.
Speaker 6: Brad does he still have a problem with young people
Speaker 6: and what does that mean for him in a general
Speaker 6: election contest.
Speaker 11: Look, the young voters are tricky, You've got they are
Speaker 11: fairly new to the electorate. They don't they really don't
Speaker 11: care what you've done previously. They want to know what
Speaker 11: you're going to do moving forward. They are idealistic, they
Speaker 11: are energized. You've got to have them not only vote
Speaker 11: for you, you've got to have their the ground troops
Speaker 11: that are out there knocking on doors and getting votes.
Speaker 11: So they're a tricky bunch, and you know, overall, this
Speaker 11: is the time when our base likes to vent its frustration,
Speaker 11: as they should right by nature of being a progressive,
Speaker 11: you're never happy, You're never satisfied with the status quo.
Speaker 11: You're always wanting more, bigger, and bolder, and so by
Speaker 11: nature there's some unrest always with a Democratic president.
Speaker 7: This time in the cycle.
Speaker 11: My hope is that by November, the Biden campaign is
Speaker 11: really taking the youth vote. Serious leaders really find ways
Speaker 11: to engage to not only persuade them and consolidate them,
Speaker 11: but also utilize their passions and energy to help me
Speaker 11: in November.
Speaker 2: It is interesting Joe Biden's just getting back to the
Speaker 2: White House today from Camp Dave it. This is one
Speaker 2: weekend all about the state of the Union. Rick Is
Speaker 2: that smart business? It's not worth it to put him
Speaker 2: out in front of people tonight. Focus on Thursday.
Speaker 10: Yeah, I think that's correct. I mean, this is the
Speaker 10: latest State of the Union. I think I can ever recall,
Speaker 10: and frankly, the Speaker has gotten a lot of criticism
Speaker 10: from his caucus by giving Joe Biden this incredible backstop
Speaker 10: to Super Tuesday. Here, their plan was to have Donald
Speaker 10: Trump basically proclaim the presumptive nominee tomorrow tonight, and now
Speaker 10: they're going to let Biden steal the show with the
Speaker 10: State of the Union a day later. So I think
Speaker 10: that this is exactly what Brad said. I think this
Speaker 10: is the whole game for him, is State of the Union.
Speaker 10: He's going to have tens of millions of people watching.
Speaker 10: This speech could be the most consequential speech of this term,
Speaker 10: and certainly the most consequential speech that he's going to
Speaker 10: give between now and the convention. And so this one
Speaker 10: he's got to get right. And realizing that prep is
Speaker 10: what prep is. I never expected him to be bouncing
Speaker 10: around Super Tuesday states two days before State of the Union.
Speaker 6: Well, Rick, as you talk about maybe the Speaker having
Speaker 6: given Biden something of a gift to be able to
Speaker 6: give an address like this right on the heels of
Speaker 6: Super Tuesday, could he also take something away from the
Speaker 6: President of the House actually passes this package of funding
Speaker 6: bills to avert a shutdown come Friday. Does that Biden
Speaker 6: lose a talking point over congressional dysfunction.
Speaker 10: Well, they're they're only going to get six of the
Speaker 10: twelve pass by then, fair enough, and so it's not
Speaker 10: like you've got to really scramble to find dysfunction in
Speaker 10: the House Republicans. And I think that's one thing I'm
Speaker 10: really looking for is how much he uses this b
Speaker 10: team speaker and House dysfunction in his State of the Union.
Speaker 4: I think it's unavoidable.
Speaker 10: He has got to point out the biggest limitation to
Speaker 10: progress in his agenda has been this crew in the House.
Speaker 2: Great panel on Super Tuesday, thanks to both of you,
Speaker 2: Rick Davis, Brad Howard. We'll be back with Rick a
Speaker 2: little bit later on this evening, and I want to
Speaker 2: remind everybody that we have special coverage coming up, Kayley.
Speaker 2: It starts eight pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio and
Speaker 2: on YouTube here on Bloomberg Radio and television starting at
Speaker 2: nine pm, and we'll be going pretty late tonight as
Speaker 2: we follow through six time zones. If Mike count is correct.
Speaker 6: I believe that is an exacting escapade. We will be
Speaker 6: on air until marinth pm. That's right Washington time. Hence
Speaker 6: why we are caffeinating throughout the day today. But of
Speaker 6: course we could get calls potentially as early as the
Speaker 6: seven o'clock hour, Joe, because that's what's right. Polls are
Speaker 6: going to close in Vermont and Virginia, right exactly. If
Speaker 6: history is a guide, We've been getting race calls on
Speaker 6: the Republican side within what a minute oh one, It'll.
Speaker 2: Be seven oh one most likely, and at eight oh
Speaker 2: one we'll have another round for you. So when you
Speaker 2: join us this evening, we'll be starting with breaking news.
Speaker 2: It might feel predictable, but we of course like to
Speaker 2: wait until the votes are counted.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
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Speaker 2: Thirty alongside Kaylee Lines. I'm Joe Matthew in the Nation's capital.
Speaker 2: As we look Kayley across the country fifteen states holding
Speaker 2: Republican contests, Eleven of them are open to more than
Speaker 2: just registered Republicans, and that's been the narrative so far
Speaker 2: until now by the Nikki Haley campaign. These are the
Speaker 2: types of states that she could potentially outperform in. And
Speaker 2: we spend some time with her chief surrogate, the governor
Speaker 2: of New Hampshire.
Speaker 6: Yeah, Kristin Nunu did join us yesterday evening on the
Speaker 6: eve of Super Tuesday, and we talked to him about
Speaker 6: the math, because Joe, You're absolutely right, there are a
Speaker 6: number of states in which independently minded voters could work
Speaker 6: in her favor. But the problem is only two states
Speaker 6: are not winner take all. So whoever gets more than
Speaker 6: fifty percent of the vote, which if polling is correct,
Speaker 6: looks very likely to be Donald Trump, he gets all
Speaker 6: the delegates. Therefore, the math becomes really difficult if she's
Speaker 6: trying to secure the nomination. And we pose that question
Speaker 6: to governor soon you knew if it's not actually about
Speaker 6: getting the number of delegates to secure the nomination, if
Speaker 6: that's not mathematically possible, why is Haley staying in this race?
Speaker 6: Here's his response.
Speaker 12: The reason to stay in the race is to collect
Speaker 12: enough delegates to be president.
Speaker 13: That's Nicki's mission. That's it. She's not here to make
Speaker 13: a point.
Speaker 12: She's not putting herself on the line, spinning all this energy,
Speaker 12: all this exhaustion away from her family, you know, being
Speaker 12: out there every single day, tirelessly, you know, for anything
Speaker 12: other than being president and getting this country back on track.
Speaker 13: And that's exactly what you want to see.
Speaker 12: So no, it's not about some of these other candidates
Speaker 12: who get in just to try to make a point
Speaker 12: or sell a book or whatever the heck it is.
Speaker 12: Nicki is about focusing on this country and what she
Speaker 12: can bring to the table, not just as from the
Speaker 12: country's perspective, but as a Republican.
Speaker 13: I love the fact that she doesn't just win. She
Speaker 13: wins handily against Joe Biden.
Speaker 12: She brings senators and new House members and governorships all
Speaker 12: with her.
Speaker 13: She wins up and down the ballot. Trump cannot do that.
Speaker 2: Ambassaard Haley signals guess today she might not endorse Donald
Speaker 2: Trump in an interview on Meet the Press, that she
Speaker 2: no longer sees herself bound to a pledge to an
Speaker 2: r NC, that she sees changing here, of course, it
Speaker 2: is changing as we speak. Governor, do you support that decision?
Speaker 2: Do you feel the same way?
Speaker 13: Well, she didn't say she wouldn't. She's definitely not going to,
Speaker 13: So she didn't say that.
Speaker 12: They you know, when the press is asking you as
Speaker 12: a candidate, if you're going to support the person you
Speaker 12: run against, that it's a ridiculous question, right to say, oh, yeah,
Speaker 12: by the way, and I'll support the person I'm running.
Speaker 13: Again, I'm trying to care.
Speaker 1: She might not.
Speaker 2: I'm trying to be fair here, Governor, she might not.
Speaker 12: Yeah, yeah, sure, yeah, she said she might not. And
Speaker 12: again it's a ridiculous question. Also because is Trump as
Speaker 12: he committed to supporting the Republican nominee if it's not.
Speaker 13: Him the answer she hasn't. Yeah, yeah, of course. So
Speaker 13: so it's it's this faux outrage.
Speaker 12: I can't believe that she won't answer the question or
Speaker 12: be clear about it.
Speaker 13: When Trump has gotten away.
Speaker 12: With completely you know, kicking kicking dirt in the face
Speaker 12: of the Republican already across this country, kind of making
Speaker 12: his own rules as he goes, but he gets away
Speaker 12: with it. So look, at the end of the day,
Speaker 12: I mean, Nicky will decide what Nicky's gonna do. You know,
Speaker 12: regardless of who the nominee is, you're gonna see a
Speaker 12: lot of folks understand that Joe Biden doesn't is not
Speaker 12: the future of America, right. I mean, that's a real
Speaker 12: problem for a whole variety of reasons. We could do
Speaker 12: an hour on a show about why that's a problem.
Speaker 12: There's a reason why Trump, you know, actually is neck
Speaker 12: and neck with Biden. The problem is, again, it's not
Speaker 12: just about who wins the presidency. It's about who brings
Speaker 12: the rest of the party over the line. And I
Speaker 12: keep going back to that, but it's so important. We're
Speaker 12: tired of as Republicans. We are tired of losing. And
Speaker 12: we lost in twenty we lost in twenty two. We
Speaker 12: lost with Trump as the standard bearer and kind of
Speaker 12: the front end and the messenger of the party. His
Speaker 12: type of candidates, his style that is complete losing for
Speaker 12: the Republican Party. So he could snake by, I guess,
Speaker 12: but Nicki would win it in droves at the end
Speaker 12: of the day. Again, I kind of I thought it
Speaker 12: was kind of funny that they would even ask her
Speaker 12: the question, because she's still very much in this race.
Speaker 12: She's still fighting hard a couple of days from Super Tuesday,
Speaker 12: and all she's trying to.
Speaker 13: Do is get more voters out.
Speaker 12: Every new voter that comes out the typically might not
Speaker 12: vote in a primary, that comes out on Super Tuesday
Speaker 12: is likely a Nicki Haley voter. So getting the voter,
Speaker 12: getting the vote out not just kind of to push
Speaker 12: back against this concerted base that Trump has, and that's
Speaker 12: understandable be given that he's an incumbent president. But every
Speaker 12: new voter she can drive out is another bit of opportunity.
Speaker 12: And that's all you're thinking about as a candidate, how
Speaker 12: do you win?
Speaker 6: Well, what about what you're thinking about as a surrogate,
Speaker 6: Because Governor, you've been asked the question. In fact, Joe
Speaker 6: and I have asked it of you when we were
Speaker 6: up in New Hampshire in January, this idea that you
Speaker 6: would support Trump should he be the Republican nominee as
Speaker 6: an alternative to Joe Biden. As you just described him
Speaker 6: as someone kicking dirt in the face of Republicans. I
Speaker 6: believe there is a very real chance he could be
Speaker 6: convicted of a felony in the not so distant future.
Speaker 6: Is there anything that would change your mind on that.
Speaker 13: Right now.
Speaker 3: No.
Speaker 12: Look, look, I want a strong ticket, and my focus
Speaker 12: is going to be I'm not going to be governor.
Speaker 12: I've done my four terms here, I'm deciding this ste down.
Speaker 12: My focus is always going to be in New Hampshire,
Speaker 12: and I'm just kind of speaking where my position as
Speaker 12: a governor.
Speaker 13: I think you can translate it to forty nine other states.
Speaker 12: Party leaders and folks that are electedly going to focus
Speaker 12: really hard on their states.
Speaker 13: The problem with Trump is that he's not going to be.
Speaker 12: Able to raise money because he's already spent what sixty
Speaker 12: million on his legal fees, probably another fifty million to go.
Speaker 13: His people have now co opted in now running the RNC.
Speaker 12: So again, who's going to give the rn C money
Speaker 12: knowing that a lot of that money might just go
Speaker 12: to pay off his legal fees. It's going to put
Speaker 12: a lot of pressure on candidates to raise money into
Speaker 12: their own packs, into their own organizations, where typically they
Speaker 12: might have relied on the RNC for help. I just
Speaker 12: don't see that as actually being there. So, look, I'm
Speaker 12: going to support the Republican Party, the Republican ticket as strong.
Speaker 13: As I can.
Speaker 12: I'm a conservative, I believe in those ideals, I believe.
Speaker 12: I'm very optimistic about the Republican Party. Whether Trump's there
Speaker 12: or not, there's still a lot of opportunity to get
Speaker 12: things right in this country, to get back to believing
Speaker 12: that the individual comes first, not a bunch of liberal
Speaker 12: elitists in Washington that are standing on the shoulders of
Speaker 12: American families built this country, defend this country, but are being.
Speaker 13: Told how to live their lives. People are absolutely sick
Speaker 13: and tired of it.
Speaker 12: So the Republican Party has a huge opportunity to have
Speaker 12: candidates not just who's running for president, but have candidates
Speaker 12: up and down the ballot that connect with that and
Speaker 12: say we're going to actively make a change. We're not
Speaker 12: just going to go and raise more money try to
Speaker 12: get ourselves reelected, but we're going to be an active
Speaker 12: part of a positive process that gets this country back
Speaker 12: on track.
Speaker 2: The Governor of New Hampshire, Chris Sanunu, speaking with us
Speaker 2: yesterday and wanted to make sure that you heard that
Speaker 2: conversation here on Bloomberg. As Nikki Haley stares down the
Speaker 2: barrel of fifteen more contests this evening, and it's difficult
Speaker 2: to tell where she might go from here Kaylee, NBC
Speaker 2: News is reporting, of course, we know she's back in
Speaker 2: the Charleston area. The staff at the headquarters in good
Speaker 2: spirits today. The songs of choice, our sisters are doing
Speaker 2: it for themselves and started from the bottom.
Speaker 6: Ah, now we're here is the line that typically that's
Speaker 6: how you ready for me typically follows. But it brings
Speaker 6: me back to New Hampshire.
Speaker 5: Joe.
Speaker 6: Remember we were all set to go. We were there
Speaker 6: on the ground, we were going to go to a
Speaker 6: Ron DeSantis event one afternoon, and it turned out he
Speaker 6: wasn't even in the state of New Hampshire. He was
Speaker 6: in Florida, and then dropped his speech that he was
Speaker 6: leaving the race, and of course that is what we're
Speaker 6: on watch for. There is no signal directly from Nikki
Speaker 6: Haley that she'd be leaving the race after these contests,
Speaker 6: but she hasn't signaled the same commitment to stay in
Speaker 6: past these fifteen states. Yes, that's true, as she had
Speaker 6: to just getting to today.
Speaker 2: As the Trump campaign targets March twelfth or nineteenth for
Speaker 2: presumptive status, when he would mathematically have this in the bag,
Speaker 2: it still could be mathematically impossible for her to become
Speaker 2: the nominee tomorrow and the candidate in waiting. Ideas starting
Speaker 2: to wear a little bit thin as Donald Trump scores
Speaker 2: additional legal victories here and it looks like we may
Speaker 2: not have a Jack Smith trial even before the selection.
Speaker 6: Yeah, you have to get an immunity decision from the
Speaker 6: Supreme Court first. Of course, the Supreme Court already yesterday
Speaker 6: did weigh in on another Trump related matter that factors
Speaker 6: in today because he is on the ballot in Colorado,
Speaker 6: despite the Supreme Court there of initially saying because of
Speaker 6: the Fourteenth Amendment he could not be, so voters there
Speaker 6: and across fourteen other states could have the chance to
Speaker 6: vote for him. And of course we'll continue to have
Speaker 6: that covered for you right here, I'm Bloomberg.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make
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