WEBVTT - Goetzmann: Financial engineering goes back 5,000 years

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<v Speaker 1>US stocks are falling, with the SNP five hundred remaining

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<v Speaker 1>within a tight trading range after data on inflation and

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<v Speaker 1>housing signal the economy maybe gaining enough momentum for the

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<v Speaker 1>Federal Reserve to gradually raise interest rates. We checked the

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<v Speaker 1>markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 1>The SNP five hundred down three tenths per cent or

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<v Speaker 1>seven points to fifty nine down Jones Industrial Average down

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<v Speaker 1>half per cent or eighty two points to seventeen thousand,

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<v Speaker 1>six hundred twenty eight. Then astacts down four tenths per

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<v Speaker 1>cent or seventeen points to forty seven fifty eight. Ten

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<v Speaker 1>year treasury of two thirty seconds, the yield one points

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<v Speaker 1>and four percent yield done a two year point eight

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<v Speaker 1>zero percent, nim X scret oil up a quarter per cent,

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<v Speaker 1>or eleven cents to forty eighty three a barrel COMEXS

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<v Speaker 1>gold up a tenth of upper cent or a dollar

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<v Speaker 1>eighty to twelve seventies six, and ounce the euro a

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<v Speaker 1>dollar thirteen forty one. The en one oh nine point

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<v Speaker 1>oh two I report this morning showed the costa living

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<v Speaker 1>in the US climbed in April by the most in

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<v Speaker 1>three years, an indication that inflation may be picking up.

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<v Speaker 1>Separate data showed residential starts in crease six point six

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<v Speaker 1>percent to a one point one seven million annualized rate

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<v Speaker 1>from a one point one million rate in March. Investors

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<v Speaker 1>queuing up to finance at Del's sixty seven billion dollar

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<v Speaker 1>acquisition of e m C with a computer maker, poise

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<v Speaker 1>to boost its offering for what's likely to be the

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<v Speaker 1>year's second biggest corporate bond sale. The company has received

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<v Speaker 1>more than eighty billion dollars of orders from investors by

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<v Speaker 1>the time its bankers closed the books on Tuesday that,

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<v Speaker 1>according to people familiar with the transaction, that's a Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>business flash. Tom and Mike Karen, thanks so much, Mike,

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<v Speaker 1>Robert Gordon, move over talk about the splash six months ago.

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<v Speaker 1>I know you're reading every word of Gordon is weighty

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<v Speaker 1>tones about is it the what the hell happened? Category?

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<v Speaker 1>Is that safe enough? Well? Yeah, it's a good way

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<v Speaker 1>to put us. Yeah. And here is an important effort

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<v Speaker 1>to give depth and and and I'm gonna use this

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<v Speaker 1>word with great respect thickness to the conversation. Why don't

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<v Speaker 1>you bring in the author of Money Changes Everything, How

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<v Speaker 1>finance made civilization possible? He doesn't apologize. Uh. Yale Professor

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<v Speaker 1>William Getsman is the author of the book, and it's

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<v Speaker 1>basically a look at, um, how we developed in part

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<v Speaker 1>faster better. Uh, the civilization we know today because we

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<v Speaker 1>were able to use finance to get there. Uh. It's

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<v Speaker 1>a time machine, you say, because we can move our

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<v Speaker 1>assets backwards and forward in time. Yes, that's a simple

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<v Speaker 1>way of looking at it. Um. You know, a simple

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<v Speaker 1>thing like a mortgage actually is amazing when you think

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<v Speaker 1>about it. It It gives you a lot of money

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<v Speaker 1>up front to buy a house, and then it also

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<v Speaker 1>moves your money into the future so that the lender

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<v Speaker 1>gets Um gets to live off of the proceeds um

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<v Speaker 1>stretching out for decades. And interestingly is is people figured

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<v Speaker 1>this out centuries and centuries ago. I mean, we tend

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<v Speaker 1>to think of Wall Street today it's the center of

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<v Speaker 1>innovation in finance, but it's almost as if everything new

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<v Speaker 1>is old again. Oh, the calculation of complex UH investment

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<v Speaker 1>instruments and UM mortgages and loans goes back almost five

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<v Speaker 1>thousand years. There is a book that that changed me

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<v Speaker 1>in Splendid Exchange, William Bernstein, and he gives a rave

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<v Speaker 1>blurb to your effort this idea of finance and where

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<v Speaker 1>we are now, which is that it's a train wreck, etcetera, etcetera.

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<v Speaker 1>You work with Bob Schiller, Yale and and a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of other people trying to get us beyond the crisis?

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<v Speaker 1>Are we even Are we even remotely back to a

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<v Speaker 1>respect for money and a respect for Wall Street. I

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<v Speaker 1>think as everybody begins to look at how much they've

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<v Speaker 1>saved and what they're gonna need for the future, they

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<v Speaker 1>naturally going to turn towards the financial markets to do so.

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<v Speaker 1>And so even those that are deeply suspicious of savings

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<v Speaker 1>are and of Wall Street are thinking about their mutual

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<v Speaker 1>funds or their a t F. So I think there's

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<v Speaker 1>a part of all of us that needs to and

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<v Speaker 1>actually does respect finance. But um, people can get very

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<v Speaker 1>worked up about what they see, UM right in front

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<v Speaker 1>of them in terms of inequality. You wrote a definitive

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<v Speaker 1>book on seventeen twenty. We were talking yesterday about Steven

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<v Speaker 1>Carter's Boomberg View essay on eighteen sixteen and Mr Trump's

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<v Speaker 1>idea of debt reputed repudiation. What can we learn from

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<v Speaker 1>the eighteenth cent tree, I mean, pre Adam Smith. What

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<v Speaker 1>do we learn from Enlightenment finance? Well, that's when all

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<v Speaker 1>the mathematics a finance really was developed, particularly for savings

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<v Speaker 1>like annuities. And uh, sir, we don't do logarithms on

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<v Speaker 1>Tuesday here, but you know, um, the whole notion of

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<v Speaker 1>somebody being able to buy an annuity today for themselves

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<v Speaker 1>or for their children and then count on that sustaining

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<v Speaker 1>them into the future, that particular structure developed in the

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<v Speaker 1>eighteenth century. And actually it was a way that government's

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<v Speaker 1>financed themselves. So when I look at what Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 1>has to say about uh, I guess refinancing the debt um,

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<v Speaker 1>I look at it in terms of this broader long

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<v Speaker 1>term history of how governments have financed themselves. And social Security,

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<v Speaker 1>for example, is UM an important UM thing that came

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<v Speaker 1>out of that early financial in UM development. And yet

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<v Speaker 1>we haven't been able to excuse me Mike as a

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<v Speaker 1>surveillance b exclusive. He does not mention rogue off at

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<v Speaker 1>reinhard nothing about Harvard in this book. I don't know

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<v Speaker 1>what that's about. Uh, we haven't been able to improve

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<v Speaker 1>on social security enough to keep it solid well, hasn't

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<v Speaker 1>gone broke yet, and I think there are pretty reasonable

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<v Speaker 1>plans to UM continue to support it. But I think

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<v Speaker 1>actually it's an idea that we could push a little

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<v Speaker 1>harder and develop add ons to social security that would

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<v Speaker 1>be UM economically beneficial to the United States and also

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<v Speaker 1>give a broader set of people a chance to participate

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<v Speaker 1>in in in the in the growth of assets as

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<v Speaker 1>opposed to simply investing in government bonds. You go back

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<v Speaker 1>in your history and trace finance through Greece and Rome, China,

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<v Speaker 1>medieval Europe. Uh, did many of these kind steps evolved

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<v Speaker 1>separately in different places or did we build one on

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<v Speaker 1>another to come up with the financial world we have today.

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<v Speaker 1>You know what's really interesting is if you look at China,

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<v Speaker 1>which was quite separate from the from from Europe from

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<v Speaker 1>for centuries. They had the same kinds of problems that

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<v Speaker 1>um the Europeans had, but they solve them in different

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<v Speaker 1>ways by creating a larger governmental structure with an accounting

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<v Speaker 1>system as opposed to a I would say, a bond

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<v Speaker 1>based system. So when the Europeans were developing municipal bonds

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<v Speaker 1>and debt finance, the Chinese were kind of doing the

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<v Speaker 1>opposite and creating a governmental structure that was more prone

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<v Speaker 1>to lend two people rather than to borrow from them.

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<v Speaker 1>You mentioned Bob Schiller on page three thirty one. That's

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<v Speaker 1>a disgrace in itself. You should have been mentioned on

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<v Speaker 1>page three or even in the introduction. You get the

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<v Speaker 1>canes in emotion in page four forty something. We've become

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<v Speaker 1>more emotional, We've become more Shalrian behavioral in that. What

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<v Speaker 1>have we learned about the behavior of black swans beyond

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<v Speaker 1>the stereotypes of the depression? What have we learned about

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<v Speaker 1>the emotion of finance? You know, I think that the

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<v Speaker 1>brain has two parts to it, and uh, we've seen

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<v Speaker 1>some fantastic work by Dan Conneman about this, and one

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<v Speaker 1>part is very reactive and emotional. The other part is

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<v Speaker 1>rational and calculating. UM. The rational calculating part, I think

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<v Speaker 1>is the part that is closely tied to financial calculation

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<v Speaker 1>and thinking carefully about the future. A lot of people

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<v Speaker 1>don't like to go there, and and they don't necessarily

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<v Speaker 1>have to if they can delegate their decision making to others.

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<v Speaker 1>But UM, I see the UM, the EBB and flow

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<v Speaker 1>of of reactions to the markets in terms of sometimes

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<v Speaker 1>that uh that uh, that type number one brain, the

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<v Speaker 1>type that overreacts is um is in play right now. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>What we've seen, and this is work with Bob Schilder

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<v Speaker 1>that's not in the book, but some research that he

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<v Speaker 1>and I and and somebody else are conducting. We've taken

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<v Speaker 1>a survey over many years and found that people tend

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<v Speaker 1>to overestimate the probabilities of a crash by by factors

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<v Speaker 1>of five or ten. So um, you know, it's it's

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<v Speaker 1>always latent there that that fear. Mike, I'm too choked

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<v Speaker 1>up to talk. You're gonna have to take a page

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<v Speaker 1>five oh five. He's got a brilliant income substitution. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>Harry Markowitz chart on the mathematical method of optimization. It's

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's it's gorgeous, including dynamic. He's trying to sell

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<v Speaker 1>this book. I can't talk. Is there a foundation stone

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<v Speaker 1>for finance? One concept that is most important time is money,

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<v Speaker 1>very simple, it's a it's the closest connection between money

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<v Speaker 1>and time is finance? Professor? Seriously, are we gonna get

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<v Speaker 1>back to where James Diamond is somebody America respects. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>not sure exactly how to answer that question. Um but

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<v Speaker 1>um uh. You know, I think that um the culture

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<v Speaker 1>will always have some level of antagonism towards the financial

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<v Speaker 1>uh infrastructure and people that speak for it. And um

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's the duty of of of society to

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<v Speaker 1>um uh to help people understand that finance works for them.

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<v Speaker 1>Not enough time, Thank you so much, William Getsman. Money

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<v Speaker 1>changes everything. How finance made civilization possible? This is an

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<v Speaker 1>important book from Princeton University Press. Sending out for Money

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<v Speaker 1>changes everything. This is a great song. This song is

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<v Speaker 1>thirty two years old. What is that about? Bad