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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 1: All right, here we go from throwing out, we're sitting.

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Speaker 3: It's a cash touchdown.

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Speaker 4: We see most gambles when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 4: go to Swann.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible being bank, small bank. I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right.

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Speaker 3: This is the ultimate combine.

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Speaker 1: You want to.

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Speaker 5: And we are underway.

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Speaker 1: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast. We are presented by

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Speaker 1: our friends at bet MGM, the King of sports books.

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Speaker 1: It's time for NFL best bets for Divisional Round weekend.

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Speaker 1: Four games to get to this week. We've got Brandon Anderson,

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Speaker 1: the Touchdown Better, Interception Better, Jill Gallant, host of the

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Speaker 1: Touchdown Show each and every weekend during the football season,

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Speaker 1: and Grant Neeffer, who covers you can see him on

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Speaker 1: Action Island, same with Jill. Good to have the crew

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Speaker 1: here for this week. You can find the video version

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Speaker 1: of the podcast, if you haven't done so already on

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Speaker 1: our Action Network YouTube page, please hit subscribe and give

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Speaker 1: the video alike.

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Speaker 5: Also on the audio side.

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Speaker 1: Five star ratings and reviews, Apple, Spotify, wherever you listen

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Speaker 1: are greatly appreciated.

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Speaker 5: Don't forget to download the.

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Speaker 1: Free award winning Action Network app for the bets these

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Speaker 1: guys give out today anything else they might be on,

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Speaker 1: and you can also. I'm just giving you so many

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Speaker 1: places to find our content. Action Network Discord is the

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Speaker 1: best place to go for a live interaction with our analyst.

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Speaker 5: Sean Kerner's in there most definitely.

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Speaker 1: Curner's in there giving out his player props like day

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Speaker 1: of game. So Kerner's in there a ton, as well

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Speaker 1: as our other contributors. Hop on in chat it up

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Speaker 1: with some of the experts and your fellow gambling community.

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Speaker 1: It's a great way to build out a friendship in

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Speaker 1: this space. Last week in Super Wildcard Weekend five and

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Speaker 1: one for the podcast show is up to ninety nine

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Speaker 1: and eighty four up units this year.

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Speaker 5: Jill a testament to this.

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Speaker 1: Jill's given out touchdown bets at two to one in

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Speaker 1: some cases.

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Speaker 5: So the record's good. The units are there.

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Speaker 1: Brandon was able to get one of his picks last

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Speaker 1: week at a lower number headed than the article, so

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Speaker 1: hopefully you got the best number.

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Speaker 5: That does happen. When we recorded on a Thursday afternoon.

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Speaker 1: And the guys had leans on Kansas City and Miami

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Speaker 1: that both hit, we didn't give them out his official picks.

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Speaker 1: We didn't cut it towards the record, but their hunches

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Speaker 1: were correct as you'd imagine. Less games.

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Speaker 5: That means we're just going to do.

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Speaker 1: A couple of bets apiece, and we'll start with Grant

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Speaker 1: me for we're going to go in chronological order of

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Speaker 1: the game, so we'll start in Baltimore, Grant Houston and

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Speaker 1: the Ravens. Baltimore's laying nine and a half. The totals

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Speaker 1: at forty three and a half. You are going to

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Speaker 1: a prop, but he got for us.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, so Max l rolling with Devin Singletary over fifty

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Speaker 6: eight and a half rushing yards. I know that the

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Speaker 6: game script really wouldn't suggest too much that they're going

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Speaker 6: to be ryding the ball a lot. I mean, Houston's

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Speaker 6: been an interesting team all season when it comes to

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Speaker 6: running backs. Gave Pierce the rains and Singletary. Then Pierce

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Speaker 6: came back. You know, we'll give him decent amount. And

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Speaker 6: then now Singletary's clearly taken over the lead back. They

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Speaker 6: don't really want Piers in there at all. This is

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Speaker 6: Singletary's offense. He's the workhorse back. He's been fantastic. He's

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Speaker 6: hit the over in six of the last seven games,

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Speaker 6: and I think nine out of the last twelve games too,

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Speaker 6: of those games coming when Pierce came back and they're like,

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Speaker 6: we'll give him some more. Now Pierce is just kind

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Speaker 6: of out of the offense. He had a few snaps

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Speaker 6: in the Cleveland game. That was when they're way out

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Speaker 6: ahead fifty eight and a half too low of the

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Speaker 6: line match versus Baltimore not really the greatest matchup on

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Speaker 6: the ground, but it is the worst matchup through the air.

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Speaker 6: There's going to be win, there's going to be freezing

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Speaker 6: temperatures is supposed to be low twenties. I think this

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Speaker 6: game really more lens itself to the ground game in Houston.

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Speaker 6: While they've been kind of good all season, I don't

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Speaker 6: think they're fully recognized how good they are. I know

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Speaker 6: Baltimore has blown out some good teams all season long.

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Speaker 6: They've been great. But I think this game is going

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Speaker 6: to stay a little bit more close than the spreadould

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Speaker 6: suggest at the moment, and with the low total fourth

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Speaker 6: forty three and a half, I think that Houston's going

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Speaker 6: to grind it out on the ground a little bit.

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Speaker 6: I mean, a lot of Stroud success has come through

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Speaker 6: the air, deep balls to Nico Collums. Seems like every

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Speaker 6: single week we see Nico Collins sixty yard touchdown, seven

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Speaker 6: yard touchdown before that was tanked Dell so wind cold

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Speaker 6: weather's gonna make that a little bit tougher. Rely more

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Speaker 6: on the ground game, and Singletary is clearly the guy.

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Speaker 6: I haven't projected for about ten yards over this number,

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Speaker 6: and I think my projection.

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Speaker 2: Still might be a little low. So I absolutely love

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Speaker 2: the over in the spot.

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Speaker 1: That number is moving too, so I want to get

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Speaker 1: this number as soon as possible. Numbers creeping into the

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Speaker 1: sixties and other books, other markets, so be sure to

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Speaker 1: hop on Singletary. Staying in the running game, Jill Gallant

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Speaker 1: anytime touchdown better?

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Speaker 5: Who might you want to target in this game?

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Speaker 4: Jill, Yeah, I mean I think it's got to be

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Speaker 4: Gus Edwards, but I would say right now you got

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Speaker 4: to play it above plus one twenty. But the one

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Speaker 4: thing that's good news, though, is that fair odds for

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Speaker 4: Gus Edwards right now is probably around plus one oh five.

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Speaker 4: Speaking with our colleague Nick Giffen, who does the fair

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Speaker 4: expected odds for anytime touchdowns, he has this around plus

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Speaker 4: one ten. So getting it at plus one thirty five

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Speaker 4: is a solid look here for Gus, because Gus, I mean,

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Speaker 4: let's start off thirteen rushing touchdowns this year, finished the

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Speaker 4: season strong with fifteen red zone carries and three touchdowns

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Speaker 4: over the final four games, and you could even discount

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Speaker 4: that final game against the Steelers because barely any of

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Speaker 4: the starters played. Now, the Texans defense, they ranked second

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Speaker 4: in DV away versus the run, but I feel like

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Speaker 4: that's kind of overrating what the Texans do between the

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Speaker 4: twenties because when they get into the red zone and

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Speaker 4: opponents do get into the red zone, they've been pretty

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Speaker 4: efficient and allowing touchdowns as well is kind of what

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Speaker 4: the Texans have been doing. Nineteen rushing touchdowns allowed this

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Speaker 4: year that was twenty ninth in the NFL. Edwards is

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Speaker 4: tied for first in the NFL and carries inside the

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Speaker 4: five yard line with twelve touchdowns that's second in the

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Speaker 4: NFL as well. So when they get there, it's pretty

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Speaker 4: much Gus's show. Now, when we saw that wildcard game

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Speaker 4: against the Browns on Kareem Hunt for in anytime touchdown,

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Speaker 4: and part of this was because when they get into

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Speaker 4: the red zone, that's kind of what when they kind

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Speaker 4: of fold and roll over and Kareem Hunt. He scored early.

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Speaker 4: He actually scored both of the touchdowns for Cleveland. Not

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Speaker 4: sure if I would have had that pegas he being

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Speaker 4: the only Brown to score in that game. But again,

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Speaker 4: I felt like the cap was on point there. But

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Speaker 4: the Ravens are also a team. They're built to start fast.

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Speaker 4: We've seen many instances where they just put a pounding

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Speaker 4: on teams. They've outscored opponents by an average of nine

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Speaker 4: point six points per game in first halves this year. Now,

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Speaker 4: obviously the big risk would be what about Lamar Jackson?

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Speaker 2: Could he vulture you?

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Speaker 4: I'm kind of doubtful he's gonna do that because he's

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Speaker 4: got thirty red zone carries this year, but only five

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Speaker 4: inside the five yard line. This is his first playoff

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Speaker 4: game in three years due to those injuries and the.

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Speaker 2: Way that his running style is.

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Speaker 4: So for me, it's not if it's more win the

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Speaker 4: Ravens get inside the ten yard line. Gus Edwards, this

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Speaker 4: is getting the ball for me. This should be closer

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Speaker 4: to minus one twenty. But the fact we're getting at

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Speaker 4: a plus one thirty five, I think we got to

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Speaker 4: take this every time so Gus Edwards anytime touchdown is

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Speaker 4: who I like in that open or for divisional round.

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Speaker 1: So is it fair to say that the market based

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Speaker 1: on what you're saying, tell me if I'm wrong. You're

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Speaker 1: almost saying that the market is not correct on Jackson?

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Speaker 5: Is that fair?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: Because so he has five rushing touchdowns this year, three

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Speaker 4: games basically of the full sixteen games that he's played

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Speaker 4: where he's rushed for a touchdown. But we get so

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Speaker 4: allured with Lamar Jackson and what he could break the

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Speaker 4: big run that that's really the instance. Now when he's

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Speaker 4: scoring those touchdowns, he's not really trying for it inside

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Speaker 4: the ten yard, inside the five yard line, and his

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Speaker 4: rushing attempts has slowly started to decrease as the year

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Speaker 4: is going on, especially in the red zone. So for

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Speaker 4: him as well, they're also getting these big leads so

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Speaker 4: fast he doesn't need to try to really assert himself

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Speaker 4: in that spot because when you have a guy like

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Speaker 4: Gus who will just fall forward for five yards, it

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Speaker 4: feels like almost every time they have to they're not

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Speaker 4: attributing to what he's actually going to bring to that offense.

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Speaker 4: Comparatively to Lamar, I just think Lamar a right now

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Speaker 4: the anytime touchdown market because it's a primetime game. Lamar

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Speaker 4: is a very like he's the MVP favorite. That's why

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Speaker 4: his odds are around plus one oh five and plus

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Speaker 4: one ten. But I don't think I think those should

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Speaker 4: be closer to about plus one forty given the track

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Speaker 4: record of the way that he's running the football this year.

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Speaker 1: He hasn't had a rushing touchdown since that Lions game

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Speaker 1: back in October Week seven at home. I hate to

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Speaker 1: be the are you watching the games?

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Speaker 2: Guy?

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Speaker 5: But yes, you make a good point.

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Speaker 1: Lamar hasn't been in the playoffs in a while, so

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Speaker 1: maybe people that are just tuning in they're really sinking

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Speaker 1: their teeth into neutral football if they're not a fan

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Speaker 1: of the Ravens and Todd Munkins did a phenomenal job

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Speaker 1: turning him into a pocket passer and then running when.

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Speaker 5: You have to in certain cases.

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Speaker 1: But to your point, they've been winning by so much,

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Speaker 1: and I know a lot of the company is on

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Speaker 1: the Ravens first half, which would bode well for Gus

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Speaker 1: to pick up carries and just kind of steamroll into

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Speaker 1: the end zone if the Ravens are playing from a

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Speaker 1: head so I just think that's a good call out

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Speaker 1: and a good reminder, like he's such a public guy

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Speaker 1: to want to bet on, but the market's caught up,

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Speaker 1: or the market hasn't caught up based on their It

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Speaker 1: just don't be fooled into that, I think because Munkin's

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Speaker 1: did a really good job implementing a passing game.

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Speaker 5: Brandon, nice, go ahead, please.

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Speaker 4: One last point I was just gonna say, though, is

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Speaker 4: that if Lamar is running for a touchdown early, that's

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Speaker 4: only going to likely help the gusspit because that likely

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Speaker 4: means the regions are rolling.

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Speaker 2: They're going to run the ball more.

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Speaker 5: Good point.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, they could both hit, It's true. Okay, Brandon Anderson.

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Speaker 1: I know we normally lead with you, but we're going

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Speaker 1: in order. So let's go to Tampa and Detroit. You've

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Speaker 1: got a play here. What do you have for us?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 7: I had to get in on the running back fun

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Speaker 7: as well, but I'm gonna actually go the other direction.

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Speaker 7: So four games this weekend we might be getting why

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Speaker 7: they're in three of them. The one we know we

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Speaker 7: won't is the game in Detroit. It's inside, you know,

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Speaker 7: don't don't tell Todd Bowles about the game. Being indoors.

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Speaker 3: He knows it is.

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Speaker 7: Don't ask any reporters strange questions. But I think we're

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Speaker 7: gonna get a lot of passing in that game. So

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Speaker 7: I'm gonna take Rashad White under sixty and a half

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Speaker 7: rushing attempts in Detroit. So these teams played in Detroit

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Speaker 7: in Week six. It's a snoozer twenty to six, terribly

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Speaker 7: boring game. The main takeaway is that in that game,

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Speaker 7: the teams combined to run thirty eight times for eighty

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Speaker 7: six yards. If you look at plays called, they called

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Speaker 7: thirty five runs combined to ninety passing plays for these teams.

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Speaker 7: And I think that we're gonna see a similar script

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Speaker 7: here in that the Bucks have had the number one

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Speaker 7: run defense by DVA the last six weeks of the season.

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Speaker 7: Vitevea up the middle, always tough against the run, and

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Speaker 7: the Lions have the number one run DVA for the

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Speaker 7: entire season. Ali McNeil's back. They've been really good. The

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Speaker 7: Buccaneers are dead last and run black win rate, so

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Speaker 7: they just have no shot to run here. I think

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Speaker 7: we see, you know, we've got these hot young coordinators

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Speaker 7: Dave Canals for the Bucks, Ben Johnson for the Lions.

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Speaker 7: You're seeing those names a lot in the head coaching searches.

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Speaker 7: Those guys are gonna know what's happening here. They're gonna

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Speaker 7: abandon the run quickly. I think the Bucks even more

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Speaker 7: than the Lions. The Lions are much better running, and

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Speaker 7: we're gonna see a lot of passing. I'm staying away

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Speaker 7: from a side because I gotta say, if we're coming

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Speaker 7: down to the quarterbacks here Jared Goff Baker Mayfield, I

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Speaker 7: don't really know what I'm gonna get here, but I

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Speaker 7: don't think're gonna see a lot of running. Rashad White

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Speaker 7: in that Detroit game seven carries for twenty six yards.

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Speaker 7: That was both of those were his lowest total of

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Speaker 7: this season. He said eight games this year where he's

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Speaker 7: run for forty two yards or less. So when it's

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Speaker 7: not working, they kind of just chuck it and they

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Speaker 7: go to the passing game. We've seen Baker's been heating

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Speaker 7: up with the.

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Speaker 3: Yolo balls all year.

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Speaker 7: And there's also the script where Detroit just rolls and

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Speaker 7: Detroit's up big, and so what are you gonna do?

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Speaker 3: Not run the ball into the line? Every time?

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Speaker 7: We're gonna pass the ball some more so, I just

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Speaker 7: see a lot of ways where White just doesn't get

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Speaker 7: the carries. Now, late in the season, White took on

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Speaker 7: more of kind of a workhorse role as carries are up,

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Speaker 7: but that's when the Bucks were winning. Look at the

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Speaker 7: win loss splits here. Here's how it goes ten times

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Speaker 7: this year, Rareshad White said seventeen carries anymore so over

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Speaker 7: this nine of those ten we're gonna win six double

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Speaker 7: digit wins. Bucks are a touchdown underdog here or last

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Speaker 7: carries eight times this season. Seven of those eight were

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Speaker 7: in losses. So if you look at just Buck's losses,

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Speaker 7: which is what we're expecting here, twelve point three carries

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Speaker 7: for forty eight yards for a shot White and some

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Speaker 7: of those real low. For the whole season, he's averaging

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Speaker 7: three point six yards of carries. So it's just it's

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Speaker 7: not working. Like the Bucks are not about the run game.

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Speaker 7: It's just not what they are. I think sixteen and

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Speaker 7: a half is a terrible line. It's only up at

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Speaker 7: one book right now. Take the under there if you

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Speaker 7: got it, fifteen and a half is around evan odds,

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Speaker 7: So I like that one as well. I would personally

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Speaker 7: make this line more like thirteen and a half, which

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Speaker 7: is a huge discrepancy on the line. But Brandon, you

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Speaker 7: know all of my escalators here, how about a de escalator.

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Speaker 7: How about we take the escalator yeah down for a while,

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Speaker 7: so you gotta look around. You got to look for it.

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Speaker 7: See if your books have lines going down. But I

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Speaker 7: mentioned the under fifteen and a half carries even money.

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Speaker 7: There's a book out there at under thirteen and a half.

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Speaker 7: Remember that's the line. I think it should be plus

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Speaker 7: one seventy five. I like that one as well. And

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Speaker 7: if you want to play the rush yards under forty

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Speaker 7: one and a half yards plus two ten under thirty

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Speaker 7: and a half plus five hundred as with an escalator,

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Speaker 7: just s trinkling along the way there. But I just

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Speaker 7: do not think this is a rashod white rushing game

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Speaker 7: at all.

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Speaker 3: Maybe the dude.

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Speaker 7: Catches some passes, he'll be out there, but give me

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Speaker 7: their shod white under sixty and a half rushing attempts.

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Speaker 1: Okay, the down escalator rare to hear from Brandon Anderson,

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Speaker 1: But good points. I think both teams this is a

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Speaker 1: passing game. And I think I think you make a

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Speaker 1: good point about the Detroit possibility of blowing them out.

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Speaker 1: Then they're gonna have to throw Kyraen Williams. It was

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Speaker 1: the back for the Rams. He had his struggles broke

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Speaker 1: off a couple really interestingly, I wasn't expecting the Rams

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Speaker 1: to really run the ball in the second half because

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Speaker 1: it just couldn't run the ball. They weren't productive. So

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Speaker 1: credit to the Lions. You knowed their DVA numbers. But

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Speaker 1: Kyron made it a little interesting. And then he never

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Speaker 1: got close to eighty eighty and a half. I think

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Speaker 1: is where his line closed. Just talking yards, not carries.

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Speaker 1: number one meal kit. Okay, Grant Neeffer, We're not going

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Speaker 1: to go to a player prop here. We're gonna stick

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Speaker 1: to a total in this same game, which is Sunday,

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Speaker 1: by the way, Bucks Lions.

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Speaker 5: First game of the day on Sunday.

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Speaker 2: What do you got?

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Speaker 6: So I'm rolling the Lions over twenty seven and a

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Speaker 6: half points. You can get the same where from minus

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Speaker 6: one oh four to minus one p fifteen juice right

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Speaker 6: now on the over. And I was going back and

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Speaker 6: forth between going for the over the entire game and

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Speaker 6: the Lions over. Couldn't quite make a decision. Finally just

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Speaker 6: went with the one with lower juice and went with

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00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:20,360
Speaker 6: a team total for the Lions. But I still like

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Speaker 6: both of them. The Lions in Dome in the Dome

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Speaker 6: have been just absolutely fantastic, going all the way back

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Speaker 6: to the beginning of last season, putting up thirty points

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Speaker 6: per game in a dome. They've had over this number

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Speaker 6: in fourteen of twenty four I think game fifteen of

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Speaker 6: twenty four games something like that. But they've been even

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Speaker 6: better at home last season thirty three points per game

368
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Speaker 6: at home this season thirty was brought down a little

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Speaker 6: bit last week where I actually had their over and

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Speaker 6: the over for the game and I almost Nick Giffen,

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Speaker 6: who I had it with, almost paid me out in

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Speaker 6: the first quarter and then that went downhill real quickly.

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Speaker 6: Didn't really have much scoring in the second half of

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Speaker 6: the Lions there, But yeah, just overall they have been

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Speaker 6: absolutely fantastic at home. They've been putting up big points.

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Speaker 6: This is a matchup versus Tampa Bay where, like Brandon said,

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Speaker 6: they're probably going to be passing the ball a bit

378
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Speaker 6: more in this spot should lead to bigger, better game script.

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Speaker 6: A lot more Gibs on the outside instead Montgomery up

380
00:17:14,560 --> 00:17:16,920
Speaker 6: the middle can lead to bigger plays. We know Dan

381
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Speaker 6: Campbell loves to go for it on fourth down. He's

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Speaker 6: going to be aggressive this entire game. Lions in the

383
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Speaker 6: playoffs second time or a third game rather than twenty years.

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Speaker 6: This is going to be a good one. I think

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Speaker 6: it's actually going to be closer than six and a

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Speaker 6: half points spread currently has there. I mean, maybe the

387
00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:35,879
Speaker 6: Lions take it away at the end, but this is

388
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Speaker 6: going to be a high scoring game and the Lions

389
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Speaker 6: are going to be putting up a lot of points.

390
00:17:39,320 --> 00:17:41,479
Speaker 6: I don't mind taking the all overs all the way

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Speaker 6: up to like thirty five in this spot.

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Speaker 2: I haven't looked at the Lions too much. I can't

393
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Speaker 2: remember what it is at.

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Speaker 6: Thirty five plus points, but still Lions regularly over great.

395
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Speaker 6: Even if it moves to twenty eight and a half,

396
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Speaker 6: that's not nearly as good a number, but it'd still

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Speaker 6: take it there.

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Speaker 1: Okay, follow grantony up, you'll get back to you.

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Speaker 2: Jill.

400
00:17:58,880 --> 00:17:59,960
Speaker 1: Can I ask you a question because I know you

401
00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:02,760
Speaker 1: have a touchdown bet on this game, but what's pretty

402
00:18:02,800 --> 00:18:07,359
Speaker 1: eye popping is you see five players around even odds

403
00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:13,280
Speaker 1: to score a touchdown Gibbs, Montgomery, White, Saint Brown, Evans.

404
00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:15,199
Speaker 1: I know you haven't put one in the app, but

405
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Speaker 1: can you just give a quick analysis on touchdown betting

406
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Speaker 1: in this game?

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00:18:19,760 --> 00:18:20,040
Speaker 2: Yeah?

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00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:22,960
Speaker 4: So, I mean with the Lions, it's exactly what Grant

409
00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:24,840
Speaker 4: is looking at. It's part of it is the implied

410
00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:27,840
Speaker 4: team total, so they're already implying.

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Speaker 2: That scoring is going to happen.

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Speaker 4: The one thing I don't really agree with is necessarily

413
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Speaker 4: as the pricing on Montgomery and Gibbs, who are around

414
00:18:34,680 --> 00:18:37,439
Speaker 4: minus one twenty maybe minus one ten, just with the

415
00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:41,399
Speaker 4: success rate of the Tampa Bay run defense. So maybe

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00:18:41,400 --> 00:18:43,399
Speaker 4: one of them might score, but right now they're implying

417
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Speaker 4: that both of them are going to score in this game.

418
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Speaker 4: But you're even seeing as well, like Sam Laporta around

419
00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:51,080
Speaker 4: like plus one fifty to plus one sixty as well,

420
00:18:51,119 --> 00:18:53,920
Speaker 4: who's walking with like the most balkiest knee brace you've

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Speaker 4: ever seen. And part of it is because of how

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Speaker 4: this defense has been struggling the Bucks, specifically their past defense.

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00:19:00,440 --> 00:19:03,640
Speaker 4: So that's why, like with Grant, he's making a great

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00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:06,120
Speaker 4: point with the idea that like the Lions are going

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Speaker 4: to roar at home because Jared Goff playing indoors at

426
00:19:09,560 --> 00:19:13,040
Speaker 4: home is amazing. He's got three to one touchdown interception ratios.

427
00:19:13,080 --> 00:19:16,320
Speaker 4: It's just coming to Detroit with that spot. So I

428
00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:18,600
Speaker 4: would think that right now, probably most of the scoring

429
00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:21,600
Speaker 4: is probably going to be going towards the receivers. But

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Speaker 4: I think at this point, because of David Montgomery's history

431
00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:27,880
Speaker 4: within the ten yard line and Jamier gives elusiveness as well,

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Speaker 4: especially both scoring last week against the Rams, they couldn't

433
00:19:31,840 --> 00:19:34,600
Speaker 4: really make the price much higher than that. And also

434
00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:36,879
Speaker 4: the implied team total of the Detroit Lions, there's just

435
00:19:36,920 --> 00:19:41,160
Speaker 4: a higher chance for more touchdowns from that side Mike Evans. Look,

436
00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:43,399
Speaker 4: he started off the season around plus one sixty. They

437
00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:45,840
Speaker 4: just they had to adjust it. They just they can't

438
00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:48,640
Speaker 4: do it now because you want to talk about yolo

439
00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:51,600
Speaker 4: balls like that's pretty much what Tampa Bay and Baker

440
00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:52,760
Speaker 4: has been doing all year with.

441
00:19:54,400 --> 00:19:57,040
Speaker 2: Mike Evans. So now books are just too tired of.

442
00:19:57,000 --> 00:19:59,879
Speaker 4: Getting beaten by listing a plus one sixty five or

443
00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:02,240
Speaker 4: plus one seventy for him that now they're just like, look,

444
00:20:02,359 --> 00:20:04,159
Speaker 4: we have to put it at plus one twenty. We

445
00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:06,919
Speaker 4: can't budge on it because Baker has shown that no

446
00:20:06,960 --> 00:20:09,480
Speaker 4: matter what happens, he is going to look for Mike

447
00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:11,800
Speaker 4: Evans down the field, and he probably should have scored

448
00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:13,760
Speaker 4: last week against the Eagles, he dropped one.

449
00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:17,199
Speaker 1: Okay, the hero balls as you mapped out earlier, but

450
00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:18,320
Speaker 1: right over.

451
00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:22,479
Speaker 7: A yeah, let me jump into just to say, I

452
00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:24,640
Speaker 7: actually do have a touchdown bet in this one that's

453
00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:26,159
Speaker 7: going to go in my every game article.

454
00:20:26,520 --> 00:20:27,520
Speaker 3: I do like Mike Evans.

455
00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:29,280
Speaker 7: Do you guys have heard me talk about Mike Evans

456
00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:31,800
Speaker 7: I think before on the touchdowns, there's of course one

457
00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:34,520
Speaker 7: forty out there at one book. He scored in eleven

458
00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:37,119
Speaker 7: out of eighteen games. Mike Evans. When you heard me

459
00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:38,919
Speaker 7: talk about him first this year was our before the

460
00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:41,040
Speaker 7: season pod when we got him at sixty to one

461
00:20:41,359 --> 00:20:43,959
Speaker 7: to lead the league in receiving touchdowns, and we did

462
00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:45,280
Speaker 7: split that with Tyreek Hill.

463
00:20:45,359 --> 00:20:47,040
Speaker 3: But that's been a guy that I've.

464
00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:48,920
Speaker 7: Been watching all season because of that, and the guy

465
00:20:49,040 --> 00:20:52,840
Speaker 7: just scores every week. Lions have allowed twenty two receiving touchdowns,

466
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:55,600
Speaker 7: two wide receivers. That's the third most in the NFL.

467
00:20:55,720 --> 00:20:58,320
Speaker 7: So I just think that you can't put there anything

468
00:20:58,359 --> 00:21:01,520
Speaker 7: above even odds. And again, I like Grant to pick

469
00:21:01,520 --> 00:21:04,920
Speaker 7: on the over here. He talked about lines over game over,

470
00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:07,199
Speaker 7: we're gonna see passing like that. The Bucks are going

471
00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:09,159
Speaker 7: to have to try to find some points here, and

472
00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:10,840
Speaker 7: the lines don't really have anyone that should be able

473
00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:13,200
Speaker 7: to cover Evan, So I like that one. One note

474
00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:16,200
Speaker 7: also on the Detroit running backs, just you're not too

475
00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:19,120
Speaker 7: thrown off. I mentioned how the running was so low

476
00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:22,879
Speaker 7: last time in the previous meeting. I believe Gibbs was

477
00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:25,320
Speaker 7: out and then Montgomery got hurt in mid game and

478
00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:27,480
Speaker 7: we were down to just Craig Reynolds. So I do

479
00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:29,480
Speaker 7: think Detroit will run some a little, but I wouldn't

480
00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:33,320
Speaker 7: necessarily go so far away from Detroit rushes or Detroit

481
00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:37,000
Speaker 7: running touchdowns, just based on that analysis earlier. More of

482
00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:39,560
Speaker 7: a Tampa thing, but just wanted to clarify that since

483
00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:41,040
Speaker 7: I had talked about it as both sides.

484
00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:43,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, I know where a Best Bets podcast, But I

485
00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:46,399
Speaker 1: think the analysis, even on plays you might not be making,

486
00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:48,359
Speaker 1: or in your case, Brandon, that you are making, is

487
00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:51,520
Speaker 1: helpful for people to make decisions this week because it's

488
00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:55,000
Speaker 1: not necessarily about volume. But there's also the argument as

489
00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:56,680
Speaker 1: to why you might not want to touch something. You

490
00:21:56,680 --> 00:21:59,040
Speaker 1: don't have to bet everything this weekend. I think that's

491
00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:02,200
Speaker 1: a common lesson that is big this time of year.

492
00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:04,879
Speaker 1: With just four games, we're working backwards. We're going to

493
00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:07,040
Speaker 1: get to Packers and Niners here in just a second.

494
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:09,560
Speaker 1: But just because we're not going to give picks, you

495
00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:11,399
Speaker 1: guys are not going to give picks on this game,

496
00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:15,040
Speaker 1: Chiefs and Bills. Brandon, you teased it. You'll have the

497
00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:17,399
Speaker 1: any game, every game.

498
00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:18,800
Speaker 5: What is it again?

499
00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:21,160
Speaker 1: What's the title again? I apologize?

500
00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:23,720
Speaker 3: Oh, that's every game, every team article.

501
00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:27,399
Speaker 1: It goes up on Friday, every game, every team. I

502
00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:32,080
Speaker 1: was ready to say any time thinking touchdowns, Thank you, Brandon.

503
00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:35,200
Speaker 1: You do have a lean or two on Casey Buffalo.

504
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:37,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, just a couple of quick ones. One of them.

505
00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:38,840
Speaker 7: I won't even make the case for it because you

506
00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:41,000
Speaker 7: heard it a couple of weeks ago. Unfortunately in a

507
00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:43,360
Speaker 7: week that didn't hit. But give me the Josh Allen touchdown.

508
00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:47,640
Speaker 7: Josh Allen, I believe finished third and rushing touchdowns anytime.

509
00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:50,760
Speaker 7: Touchdown odds or even for him. He scored in thirteen

510
00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:52,720
Speaker 7: on eighteen games so far. He had one in the

511
00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:56,680
Speaker 7: playoff game last week. He's had nine touchdowns last seven games,

512
00:22:56,680 --> 00:23:00,120
Speaker 7: including one against the Chiefs. So high like that, he's

513
00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:02,000
Speaker 7: gonna find the end zone. We're gonna see points in

514
00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:05,760
Speaker 7: that game. Two touchdowns is plus six hundred if you

515
00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:08,159
Speaker 7: want to do that escalator as well there. So I

516
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:10,840
Speaker 7: like Allen touchdown best and then if you've got it.

517
00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:13,120
Speaker 7: I looked and one thing I played when these teams

518
00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:16,840
Speaker 7: played about six weeks ago is all six times we've

519
00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:19,119
Speaker 7: had Pat Mahomes and Josh Allen. What do you envision

520
00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:21,240
Speaker 7: when you think of that game? You think of late

521
00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:25,200
Speaker 7: in the game, back and forth, get a field goal here,

522
00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:28,359
Speaker 7: a touchdown here, like we're gonna get that chess match late.

523
00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:33,080
Speaker 7: Both teams have scored in every fourth quarter all six

524
00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:35,520
Speaker 7: matchups when these teams have played each other. So you

525
00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:38,680
Speaker 7: look under, look deep in the books, but look under

526
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:41,000
Speaker 7: the fourth quarter tab and a lot of times you

527
00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:43,280
Speaker 7: can bet both teams to score in the quarter.

528
00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:43,879
Speaker 3: Yes or no.

529
00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:46,800
Speaker 7: It's around minus one sixty so you're paying a lot.

530
00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:49,000
Speaker 7: But six for six that we've hit on this one.

531
00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:52,119
Speaker 7: I think this stays close throughout. I don't really know

532
00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:54,120
Speaker 7: who's gonna win. I would lean bills on the game,

533
00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:56,199
Speaker 7: but right at a field goal, I think that's basically

534
00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:59,280
Speaker 7: about the right line. I do think both teams score late,

535
00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:01,600
Speaker 7: and we get that that always at the.

536
00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:03,119
Speaker 3: End, who's got the ball last?

537
00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:05,520
Speaker 7: Right, Someone's gonna score, Someone's gonna have a chance to

538
00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:08,639
Speaker 7: respond at the end, maybe we finally get our first

539
00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:11,480
Speaker 7: overtime that you know, that literally the rule that got

540
00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 7: put into place because of these teams the last time

541
00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:16,080
Speaker 7: we saw them. So I like the both teams to

542
00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:18,959
Speaker 7: score in the fourth quarter around minus one sixty one

543
00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:20,399
Speaker 7: to seventy if you've got that as well.

544
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:24,320
Speaker 1: Okay, back to Jill touchdown angles and something I wanted

545
00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:26,840
Speaker 1: to pick your brain about too, and I couldn't believe

546
00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:28,920
Speaker 1: it when I saw it. The price has moved since

547
00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:32,640
Speaker 1: from earlier in the week. But Josh Allen Patrick mahomes

548
00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:36,040
Speaker 1: to throw picks at even money. Josh Allen has not

549
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:38,119
Speaker 1: thrown a pick in only four games this year, including

550
00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:41,080
Speaker 1: the playoffs. That does include the Pittsburgh game, But that

551
00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:43,760
Speaker 1: got me thinking, why is that price that way? And

552
00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:45,960
Speaker 1: then also maybe touchdown angles Jill for this game.

553
00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:49,560
Speaker 4: I likely just because pass attempts maybe down depending on

554
00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:51,919
Speaker 4: whether But again I think the other thing too is

555
00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:53,320
Speaker 4: that both of these teams are going to be in

556
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:55,679
Speaker 4: gotta habit mode in second half. They're going to be

557
00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:59,280
Speaker 4: throwing more. And both of these teams were top five

558
00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:03,160
Speaker 4: and it per dropback rate and can get to the quarterbacks.

559
00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:06,719
Speaker 4: So I'm not really too worried about you know, they

560
00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:08,239
Speaker 4: got to have a part. I would look at them

561
00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:09,879
Speaker 4: as well. I mean, the fact that they're both plus

562
00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:13,600
Speaker 4: money I should tell you something, especially that they were

563
00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:16,600
Speaker 4: both finished top three in profits for interception props this

564
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:18,879
Speaker 4: year if you just bet one unit on each of them.

565
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:21,679
Speaker 4: But from a long shot perspective, so last week I

566
00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:25,040
Speaker 4: was on Noah Gray for at any time touchdown, and

567
00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:27,000
Speaker 4: part of it was just about the same handicap that

568
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:28,800
Speaker 4: you would make for Travis Kelcey is pretty much the

569
00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:30,760
Speaker 4: same handicap you could do with Noah Gray. Like they

570
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:33,280
Speaker 4: were both struggling against tight ends. Now neither ended up

571
00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:36,200
Speaker 4: scoring because neither really had to. But in this game,

572
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:38,000
Speaker 4: I think the Chiefs are going to have to throw

573
00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:41,520
Speaker 4: a little bit more and I'm looking at a long shot.

574
00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:44,480
Speaker 4: I'm going at Justin Watson around plus five point fifty.

575
00:25:45,280 --> 00:25:47,359
Speaker 4: So part of the reason why I want Watson to

576
00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:50,320
Speaker 4: over say somebody like Marcus Beldaz Scantling another one who

577
00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:53,399
Speaker 4: will be able to get deep at like plus eight fifty.

578
00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:55,639
Speaker 2: Is so the Bills this season.

579
00:25:56,040 --> 00:25:57,760
Speaker 4: One of the things that they can be beat on

580
00:25:57,920 --> 00:25:59,320
Speaker 4: is a little bit is the deep past. They were

581
00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:01,880
Speaker 4: twenty third and D to the deep pass and twenty

582
00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:04,000
Speaker 4: fifth of DVOI to the wide receiver two. And right

583
00:26:04,040 --> 00:26:07,440
Speaker 4: now the way that the Chiefs offense is staggering up,

584
00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:10,399
Speaker 4: Justin Watson has end up now in that wide receiver

585
00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:15,160
Speaker 4: two role behind Rashid Rice. And for me, he's also

586
00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 4: had a lot of flashes of success versus both man

587
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:20,359
Speaker 4: and zone coverage. Because the Bills are one of the

588
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:22,159
Speaker 4: few defenses they're kind of middle of the pack on

589
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 4: both they play a mix of both like quite often

590
00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:27,239
Speaker 4: and MBS. That's the one thing that you can use

591
00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:30,280
Speaker 4: to immediately eliminate him. He hasn't been successful versus either defense,

592
00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:33,320
Speaker 4: whereas at least Justin Watson, you've seen his yards, reute run,

593
00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:35,520
Speaker 4: his a DOC go up if they're in a trailing

594
00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:37,399
Speaker 4: game script in the second half and they need to

595
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:39,600
Speaker 4: move the ball down the field. Justin Watson is one

596
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:41,160
Speaker 4: of those few players that I know that can get

597
00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:44,119
Speaker 4: open down the field, especially with Patrick Mahomes, who I

598
00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:46,479
Speaker 4: feel is still one of the few quarterbacks that in

599
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:49,600
Speaker 4: those gotta habit moments could buy time in the pocket

600
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:50,800
Speaker 4: with his legs.

601
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:53,320
Speaker 2: To be able for the Rose receivers to get downfield.

602
00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:55,679
Speaker 4: So Justin Watson is who I'm looking at for a

603
00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:59,679
Speaker 4: long shot at plus five point fifty. But Brandon, I'm

604
00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:01,440
Speaker 4: probably going to have to go against you, dude. I'm

605
00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:03,280
Speaker 4: kind of looking at James Cook for in any time

606
00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:05,200
Speaker 4: touchdown right now. I haven't logged it yet. It's a

607
00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:08,359
Speaker 4: round plus one fifty five. And part of the reason

608
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:11,280
Speaker 4: why I'm looking at him isn't necessarily that I'm disagreeing

609
00:27:11,280 --> 00:27:13,200
Speaker 4: with you on the Josh Allen part because I feel

610
00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:15,720
Speaker 4: like when they need to have it, Josh Allen is

611
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:18,040
Speaker 4: getting the ball inside the ten yard line. But the

612
00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:21,520
Speaker 4: part of the reason why I wanted Cook here is because, well, a,

613
00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:23,680
Speaker 4: he should have had a touchdown last week against the Steelers,

614
00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:26,280
Speaker 4: he dropped one in the end zone. But over the

615
00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:29,280
Speaker 4: last few weeks you started to see his role increase

616
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:31,720
Speaker 4: as the Bills have shifted their offense to more of

617
00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 4: a running attack, and so he had eighteen red zone

618
00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:38,480
Speaker 4: touches over the last five games coming into that wild

619
00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:41,119
Speaker 4: card game, and he did score against the Chiefs when

620
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:43,639
Speaker 4: they played earlier this year, finishing with five catches in

621
00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:46,399
Speaker 4: eighty three yards. But another reason too is that this

622
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:49,120
Speaker 4: Chiefs defense, they're twenty seven the DVOWA versus the run,

623
00:27:49,119 --> 00:27:52,080
Speaker 4: but they're also twenty third in DVOA versus running backs

624
00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:55,080
Speaker 4: as receivers. So that was part of the reason why. Okay,

625
00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:56,800
Speaker 4: if he's going to be catching the passes out of

626
00:27:56,800 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 4: that backfield, that's who I would look at. From a

627
00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:02,840
Speaker 4: James Cook perspective, I will say definitely not sexy. Odds

628
00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:05,520
Speaker 4: around plus one forty five one plus fifty five, and

629
00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:08,920
Speaker 4: it's a super frustrating player to bet because you know

630
00:28:09,040 --> 00:28:11,600
Speaker 4: that inside the five yard line, if he doesn't do

631
00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:14,080
Speaker 4: it on the first down, Josh Allen is for sure

632
00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:15,400
Speaker 4: doing it on the second down.

633
00:28:15,800 --> 00:28:16,600
Speaker 2: So that's the thing.

634
00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:18,639
Speaker 4: But what I would just say, but I'm willing to

635
00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:23,359
Speaker 4: have a short term memory and just say, Okay, James Cook,

636
00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:26,240
Speaker 4: let's do it again, and let's make it happen again

637
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:28,280
Speaker 4: against the Chiefs. So that's what I would just say

638
00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:30,480
Speaker 4: is that I think Josh Allen is going to score

639
00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:32,800
Speaker 4: again this week. But I also think that James Cook

640
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:35,080
Speaker 4: is being undervalued a little bit based on his role

641
00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:35,800
Speaker 4: in this offense.

642
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:39,040
Speaker 1: All right, very good, good stuff, Grant. I haven't gone

643
00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:40,960
Speaker 1: to you in a bit. Need to add on this game.

644
00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:43,600
Speaker 1: Anything you're leaning towards or is it kind of a

645
00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:46,440
Speaker 1: stay away game, because like Brandon said, who knows where

646
00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:47,040
Speaker 1: this one goes?

647
00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:49,840
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean I'm gonna kind of wait and see

648
00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:53,520
Speaker 6: where the weather's going to end up at probably tomorrow

649
00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:55,479
Speaker 6: I'll look into it a little bit more. That can

650
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:58,400
Speaker 6: kind of determine things quite a bit. As of right now,

651
00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:01,960
Speaker 6: mostly stay away looking at the under in that one.

652
00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:05,120
Speaker 6: But right now, there's nothing that's really stood off the

653
00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:06,800
Speaker 6: page to me that I really want to.

654
00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:07,440
Speaker 2: Have in that game.

655
00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:10,600
Speaker 5: Okay, very good. That is Sunday night.

656
00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:14,040
Speaker 1: By the way, let's work back in time, so apology.

657
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:17,120
Speaker 1: If he started chronologically, we're going to work backwards back

658
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:21,200
Speaker 1: to Saturday evening Green Bay, San Francisco.

659
00:29:21,560 --> 00:29:22,560
Speaker 5: Will go back to Jill.

660
00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:24,920
Speaker 1: You do have at any time touchdown bet that you've

661
00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:26,719
Speaker 1: already put in the app and you want to give

662
00:29:26,760 --> 00:29:27,240
Speaker 1: it out here.

663
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:28,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely so.

664
00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:32,680
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go with Jayden Reid at plus two twenty

665
00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:36,040
Speaker 4: for a touchdown with the Packers. Now, Jayden Reid he

666
00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:38,760
Speaker 4: led the Packers with ten touchdowns this year, eight receiving,

667
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:42,280
Speaker 4: two rushing, very versatile rookie player. He leads all Packers

668
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:45,480
Speaker 4: receivers with twenty red zone touches. But the key part

669
00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:47,960
Speaker 4: here is that he plays in the slot the most

670
00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:51,200
Speaker 4: of any Packers wide receiver, even over Dontavian Wicks. And

671
00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:55,080
Speaker 4: I've been banging this drum all year about how the

672
00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:58,880
Speaker 4: way that I guess if there's one weakness for this

673
00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:02,800
Speaker 4: forty nine Ers defense this year, it's shifty slot speed

674
00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:05,560
Speaker 4: receivers getting the touchdowns this year. So here's some of

675
00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:08,680
Speaker 4: the guys who have had success versus this Niners defenses

676
00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:13,320
Speaker 4: this year, you have Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers, DeVante Smith,

677
00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:17,280
Speaker 4: Tyler Boyd, Christian Kirk. They what do they have all

678
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:19,320
Speaker 4: in common? They all line up in the slot at

679
00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:21,680
Speaker 4: a fifty percent rate or higher. And you could even

680
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:24,520
Speaker 4: go back Mike Evans if we're talking about the Buccaneers again,

681
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:27,040
Speaker 4: when he scored a touchdown on this defense, lined up

682
00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:27,600
Speaker 4: in the slot.

683
00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:30,080
Speaker 2: Terry mcclaurin typically lines up outside.

684
00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:32,200
Speaker 4: That time that he scored a touchdown on them, he

685
00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:35,320
Speaker 4: lined up in the slot. So again, the speedy slot

686
00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:38,200
Speaker 4: receivers are the ones who have been having the most

687
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:41,520
Speaker 4: success on this defense. Now, another reason why we like

688
00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:44,920
Speaker 4: Reid is howie fares versus zone coverage because the Niners

689
00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:48,200
Speaker 4: actually play zone at above a league average rate, and

690
00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:50,760
Speaker 4: Read has actually seen his metrics go up like yards

691
00:30:50,800 --> 00:30:54,040
Speaker 4: per route run, a dot verse three target percentage. All

692
00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:56,360
Speaker 4: of that kind of just starts to skew up when

693
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:59,200
Speaker 4: he's playing against zone defense as opposed to man coverage.

694
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:02,000
Speaker 4: He's also one of the two Packers wide receivers to

695
00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:04,920
Speaker 4: have a little bit success versus zone this year.

696
00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:07,000
Speaker 2: The other is Romeo Dobbs.

697
00:31:07,080 --> 00:31:10,160
Speaker 4: Now Romeo Dobbs completely just had the game of his

698
00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:13,240
Speaker 4: life last week against the Cowboys, and right now he's

699
00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:15,640
Speaker 4: around plus two fifty to plus two sixty. I'm not

700
00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:18,400
Speaker 4: saying I don't like Dobbs, but the main caveat with

701
00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:21,760
Speaker 4: Dobbs is that he mainly lines up outside. He rarely

702
00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:24,920
Speaker 4: comes into the slot part here. So for me, Jaden

703
00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:27,680
Speaker 4: Reid at plus two twenty would be my favorite packer

704
00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:29,560
Speaker 4: to bet in that divisional round game.

705
00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:32,040
Speaker 1: Did I see that you put Jordan Love in there

706
00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:33,040
Speaker 1: as well?

707
00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:34,400
Speaker 2: That was actually the first bet.

708
00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:37,640
Speaker 4: Right after the Monday night game. Nick and I were

709
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:39,840
Speaker 4: sitting in the Action Network studios in office and we're

710
00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:41,440
Speaker 4: looking at it and we're already starting to look at

711
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:45,480
Speaker 4: upcoming week odds and we see the forty nine ers

712
00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:47,560
Speaker 4: packers odds, and I looked at him. I'm like, dude,

713
00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:50,520
Speaker 4: Jordan Love is twelve to one right now, we should

714
00:31:50,560 --> 00:31:52,720
Speaker 4: be locking in this in and typically he's eight to nine.

715
00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:54,720
Speaker 4: He didn't even look at his projections or fair odds.

716
00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 4: He just goes, Yep, that's stupid odds. We need to

717
00:31:56,800 --> 00:31:58,800
Speaker 4: lock that in right now. So pretty much I think

718
00:31:58,800 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 4: it was just a squad ride. Everybody in the office

719
00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:03,600
Speaker 4: pretty much locked it in at that point, so we're

720
00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:05,800
Speaker 4: all in it. On Jordan Love at twelve to one

721
00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 4: to score a touchdown.

722
00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:09,800
Speaker 5: That's great. Well, I'm glad we got the input there.

723
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:13,440
Speaker 1: On the subject of the Packers, we do have a

724
00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:17,080
Speaker 1: side that someone's betting this week, and that would be

725
00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:19,960
Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson. And where might you be going, sir in

726
00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:21,080
Speaker 1: Packers Niners?

727
00:32:21,280 --> 00:32:23,920
Speaker 7: Well, you know I got my forty nine Ers jersey on,

728
00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:26,280
Speaker 7: so you know how this goes. Give me the Green

729
00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:29,360
Speaker 7: Bay Packers plus ten, nine and a half if you

730
00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:32,120
Speaker 7: need it where it's at at most books, Jill. I

731
00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:34,840
Speaker 7: hope Jordan Love scored the touchdown. I hope Jayden Reid

732
00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:37,240
Speaker 7: score the touchdown. I hope don Tavian the Wicks gets

733
00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:40,600
Speaker 7: in there. Let's get touchdowns for everybody. This was my

734
00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:43,280
Speaker 7: upset pick of the week. This was my hot read

735
00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:45,920
Speaker 7: at plus ten. Try to get that key number if

736
00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:48,280
Speaker 7: you can. And look, I'll just say up front, there's

737
00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:51,000
Speaker 7: certainly a chance this just go terribly Joe Berry. The

738
00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:54,120
Speaker 7: defense's not good. That's not my cap here. The Niners

739
00:32:54,120 --> 00:32:56,280
Speaker 7: could just come out and drop forty or fifty. You

740
00:32:56,360 --> 00:32:58,240
Speaker 7: feel dumb. We move on, We get the next one

741
00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:01,800
Speaker 7: that's possible. I don't think that Cowboys game was a fluke,

742
00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:03,800
Speaker 7: and sorry Jille to bring that one up, but we

743
00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:06,480
Speaker 7: all watched that Cowboys took a lot of the blame

744
00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:09,240
Speaker 7: there for their defense. But this is not new for

745
00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:12,920
Speaker 7: the Packers. Week eighteen, the Packers played the Bears, and

746
00:33:12,960 --> 00:33:15,400
Speaker 7: that was effectively a game where the Bears were team.

747
00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:19,120
Speaker 7: I was on this podcast week after week backing the Bears.

748
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:21,560
Speaker 7: They were red hot down the stretch, they were top

749
00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:26,120
Speaker 7: five team down the stretch, and statistically, the Packers demolished

750
00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:29,200
Speaker 7: the Bears. That was probably the most impressive Week eighteen

751
00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:33,360
Speaker 7: takeaway I had was the Packers offense. Week before Packers

752
00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:36,160
Speaker 7: played my Vikings. I watched the game closely. That was

753
00:33:36,200 --> 00:33:41,480
Speaker 7: basically a playoff game in Minnesota, and the Vikings defense

754
00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:45,040
Speaker 7: has been great all season and Jordan Love shredded them.

755
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:48,160
Speaker 7: This Packers offense is not a one week thing that

756
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:50,840
Speaker 7: was about the Cowboys, but it's about the Packers. To

757
00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:54,360
Speaker 7: Jordan Love, since Week nine has gone from second to

758
00:33:54,440 --> 00:33:58,200
Speaker 7: worst completion over expectation to second best in the NFL.

759
00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:01,880
Speaker 7: He's jumped to top three by EPA top three by

760
00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:06,840
Speaker 7: PFF grade. He has basically played MVP ball since Week nine.

761
00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:10,759
Speaker 7: During that span, Packers offense is number two in DVOA.

762
00:34:11,160 --> 00:34:13,600
Speaker 7: They're behind the Niners, but these are the top two

763
00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:17,040
Speaker 7: offenses in that span, top five run, top five pass.

764
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:20,360
Speaker 7: They've run the ball well, and Jill you mentioned for

765
00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:23,480
Speaker 7: the forty nine ers their weakness another weakness, they're kind

766
00:34:23,480 --> 00:34:25,799
Speaker 7: of just average against the run. They can be run on.

767
00:34:26,200 --> 00:34:28,799
Speaker 7: Aaron Jones four straight games at least twenty carries at

768
00:34:28,880 --> 00:34:31,720
Speaker 7: least one hundred and ten yards. Green Bay is second

769
00:34:31,719 --> 00:34:34,240
Speaker 7: and pass block win rate, so that's gonna be important

770
00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:36,960
Speaker 7: against Nick Bosa and Chase Young. But Jordan Love, we've

771
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:39,720
Speaker 7: seen that backfoot throw right, I think he can create

772
00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:43,360
Speaker 7: time and get the passes off. Niners corners not that great.

773
00:34:43,640 --> 00:34:45,719
Speaker 7: It's a system thing. But if you can get some

774
00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:48,800
Speaker 7: time all those green Bay weapons, I think they are beatable.

775
00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:49,520
Speaker 3: So I think the.

776
00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:53,839
Speaker 7: Packers score here. The Niners defense has been way worse

777
00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:57,240
Speaker 7: at home this season. They're second in DVA on the road.

778
00:34:57,400 --> 00:34:59,960
Speaker 7: They're nineteenth at home, so I don't think it's probably

779
00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:02,160
Speaker 7: that's stark, but they have been much worse at home.

780
00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:05,080
Speaker 7: They're much worse early in the game Green Bay. I

781
00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:08,000
Speaker 7: think if they get the coin toss takes the ball,

782
00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:09,799
Speaker 7: just like they did against Dallas, they want to go

783
00:35:09,880 --> 00:35:13,400
Speaker 7: out get the lead, put the pressure on. You always

784
00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:16,319
Speaker 7: think the one seeds here. We always assume, Oh, they're

785
00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:19,960
Speaker 7: the juggernaut. They're rested, they're gonna roll, and the pressure

786
00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:22,759
Speaker 7: is all on that team. Right, Packers are playing with

787
00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:25,399
Speaker 7: house money. This is a super young team. They're even

788
00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:27,440
Speaker 7: supposed to be in the playoffs. They certainly weren't supposed

789
00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:29,959
Speaker 7: to win last week. They got no pressure on them.

790
00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:33,520
Speaker 7: The longer this stays close, the more the pressure goes on.

791
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:36,200
Speaker 7: And don't forget the last time we really saw the

792
00:35:36,280 --> 00:35:39,280
Speaker 7: Niners play an actual game of football. That was Christmas

793
00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:43,480
Speaker 7: Night against Baltimore and we saw the absolute meltdown. Brock

794
00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:48,719
Speaker 7: Purty MVP favorite goes to MVP nothing foreig interceptions. They

795
00:35:48,760 --> 00:35:51,560
Speaker 7: played Washington the next week, that's a scrimmage. They sat

796
00:35:51,560 --> 00:35:56,120
Speaker 7: week eighteen, they sat out last week. What happens if

797
00:35:56,160 --> 00:35:57,880
Speaker 7: you come out on the first quarter and Brock pretty

798
00:35:57,880 --> 00:36:00,760
Speaker 7: sales a pass or throws a pick early on, that's

799
00:36:00,800 --> 00:36:04,320
Speaker 7: like the last memory you have is this giant failure

800
00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:06,600
Speaker 7: to end the season that could have cost them the

801
00:36:06,640 --> 00:36:10,640
Speaker 7: one seed cost them the MVP chances. How does Perdy respond?

802
00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:12,719
Speaker 7: How does Shanahan in the play call and respond? I

803
00:36:12,719 --> 00:36:16,239
Speaker 7: think there's some real stakes there. Packers don't make a

804
00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:18,799
Speaker 7: lot of mistakes, even though they're young. They are the

805
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:21,479
Speaker 7: lowest in the NFL at sax and turnovers per game.

806
00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:25,719
Speaker 7: I think in game Matt Lafleur against Cal Shanahan, that's

807
00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:26,759
Speaker 7: an advantage I'll take.

808
00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:27,200
Speaker 3: In game.

809
00:36:27,239 --> 00:36:30,080
Speaker 7: We saw with McVeigh some of those similar mistakes about

810
00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:33,759
Speaker 7: clock management, about how the game script goes. And then

811
00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:35,640
Speaker 7: you know, I got my trends here. Trends are what

812
00:36:35,680 --> 00:36:38,280
Speaker 7: brought me on this in the first place. Matt Laflur

813
00:36:38,680 --> 00:36:42,000
Speaker 7: twenty one and ten ats as an underdog sixty eight percent,

814
00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:44,840
Speaker 7: And then I mentioned the one seed and Brendan we talked.

815
00:36:44,640 --> 00:36:46,359
Speaker 3: About this last week. This was the look I had

816
00:36:46,440 --> 00:36:48,600
Speaker 3: last week. What did we say, you.

817
00:36:48,680 --> 00:36:51,040
Speaker 7: Back the home teams in the division round or sorry,

818
00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:54,640
Speaker 7: in the wildcard round, you fade the one seeds arrested

819
00:36:54,640 --> 00:36:57,880
Speaker 7: one seeds in the division round. Here, So here are

820
00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:02,280
Speaker 7: the numbers Division round only last two decades, home favorites

821
00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:06,879
Speaker 7: forty two percent, ats just the one seeds thirty five

822
00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:10,240
Speaker 7: percent ats, and if you look at one Seeds favored

823
00:37:10,239 --> 00:37:13,319
Speaker 7: by ten or less, those teams are ten twenty five

824
00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:16,399
Speaker 7: and one against the spread twenty nine percent cover rate

825
00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:20,920
Speaker 7: two decades worth. We have of data. Only twice in

826
00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:24,840
Speaker 7: two decades have both one Seeds covered this round and one.

827
00:37:25,160 --> 00:37:28,239
Speaker 7: Eight times neither one of them is covered. And that's

828
00:37:28,239 --> 00:37:31,480
Speaker 7: why I'm leaning here this weekend one Seeds are feeling

829
00:37:31,600 --> 00:37:34,400
Speaker 7: covered by over two points of games. You're basically paying

830
00:37:34,400 --> 00:37:36,000
Speaker 7: a two point tax you want to bet on the

831
00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:38,560
Speaker 7: forty nine ers. Here, we're getting two free points to

832
00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:41,239
Speaker 7: bet on the Packers. I've heard a lot of analysis

833
00:37:41,239 --> 00:37:43,799
Speaker 7: this week say, oh, well, this line wouldn't be only

834
00:37:43,880 --> 00:37:46,280
Speaker 7: ten points if it was before the Packers or before

835
00:37:46,280 --> 00:37:48,839
Speaker 7: the Packers beat up on the Cowboys. I think that's

836
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:50,759
Speaker 7: the wrong direction. I think the Packers have been so

837
00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:53,320
Speaker 7: good late in the year that this line is already

838
00:37:53,320 --> 00:37:55,719
Speaker 7: too long, and it's not giving enough respect to what

839
00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:58,520
Speaker 7: Green Bay has become late. It's putting too much analysis

840
00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:01,720
Speaker 7: on what they were early on. So a couple other trends.

841
00:38:02,080 --> 00:38:05,400
Speaker 7: Division round home teams on a one game losing streak,

842
00:38:05,440 --> 00:38:08,319
Speaker 7: that's the Niners. They lost in week eighteen. Those teams

843
00:38:08,360 --> 00:38:12,000
Speaker 7: are three and fifteen against the spread three and fifteen

844
00:38:12,160 --> 00:38:16,120
Speaker 7: seventeen percent. And then Road Division teams that missed the

845
00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:19,960
Speaker 7: playoffs this round twenty seven and thirteen sixty eight percent.

846
00:38:20,040 --> 00:38:22,759
Speaker 7: And by the way, every one of those trends I

847
00:38:22,840 --> 00:38:25,680
Speaker 7: just listed, except the Matt Lafleur one. They go for

848
00:38:25,719 --> 00:38:28,279
Speaker 7: the Texans against the Ravens too. So that's not my

849
00:38:28,400 --> 00:38:32,400
Speaker 7: pick here. It's the Packers Saturday. If you can believe

850
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:36,719
Speaker 7: it is National Cheese Lovers Day, give me some cheese.

851
00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:39,760
Speaker 7: Give me the Packers plus ten plus nine and a half.

852
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:41,800
Speaker 7: I think they could win this thing if the Niners

853
00:38:41,880 --> 00:38:42,640
Speaker 7: let them hang around.

854
00:38:43,160 --> 00:38:45,320
Speaker 1: Jill Great, you guys smell that. I smell a cheese

855
00:38:45,400 --> 00:38:47,759
Speaker 1: for it in the North Dakota burrow right now. I

856
00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:54,239
Speaker 1: can smell it through my screen recording this podcast. Chee,

857
00:38:54,680 --> 00:38:57,120
Speaker 1: holy crap, all in on the Packers. Now, where's the

858
00:38:57,160 --> 00:38:59,280
Speaker 1: Bundo when you need them? With the cheesehead for Brandon?

859
00:38:59,520 --> 00:39:01,880
Speaker 1: For crying out loud, we should have passed that along.

860
00:39:02,040 --> 00:39:04,520
Speaker 1: He was on last week's episode. Dubundo left us. I

861
00:39:04,560 --> 00:39:07,480
Speaker 1: wish he's shipped that cheese head off to North Dakota

862
00:39:07,560 --> 00:39:11,400
Speaker 1: for Brandon. Well, so you like the Packers this week.

863
00:39:11,880 --> 00:39:14,080
Speaker 1: There is a look ahead for this week, and I

864
00:39:14,120 --> 00:39:15,200
Speaker 1: wonder where this is going.

865
00:39:15,280 --> 00:39:18,360
Speaker 7: Brandon, You know what, Luis, We gotta go with an escalator.

866
00:39:18,360 --> 00:39:21,680
Speaker 7: Here is Packers season here in North Dakota. Look, Green

867
00:39:21,719 --> 00:39:24,680
Speaker 7: Bay is actually the second closest geographic team other than

868
00:39:24,719 --> 00:39:27,400
Speaker 7: the Vikings here in Fargo. So I thought about just

869
00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:29,680
Speaker 7: driving around like a hardware store. I bet I could

870
00:39:29,719 --> 00:39:32,279
Speaker 7: found a cheesehead somewhere in town here. I might have

871
00:39:32,320 --> 00:39:34,440
Speaker 7: to do it if this look ahead hits here, I'm

872
00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:38,200
Speaker 7: taking the Passers Packers escalator all the way. So Packers

873
00:39:38,239 --> 00:39:41,560
Speaker 7: covered the ten nine and a half close late. Who

874
00:39:41,560 --> 00:39:44,799
Speaker 7: do you want Rock Purdy or Jordan Love? I want

875
00:39:44,880 --> 00:39:47,680
Speaker 7: Jordan Love. Brockbury's done a lot of good things, but

876
00:39:47,800 --> 00:39:50,319
Speaker 7: Jordan Love is the quarterback that looks the part. Right now,

877
00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:53,200
Speaker 7: the pressure all goes on. San Fran Niner's got a

878
00:39:53,239 --> 00:39:55,640
Speaker 7: rookie kicker that could matter. We come down to a

879
00:39:55,719 --> 00:39:59,440
Speaker 7: late game division round. Underdogs of seven to eleven points

880
00:39:59,440 --> 00:40:02,680
Speaker 7: are twelve twenty three. Straight up, you take those dogs.

881
00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:05,760
Speaker 7: You have a fifty two percent ROI on the money line,

882
00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:09,200
Speaker 7: fifty two percent. Matt Lafleur is seventeen and twelve straight

883
00:40:09,280 --> 00:40:13,040
Speaker 7: up as an underdog fifty percent ROI highest of every

884
00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:13,680
Speaker 7: coach that.

885
00:40:13,600 --> 00:40:14,440
Speaker 3: Coach this season.

886
00:40:14,920 --> 00:40:17,799
Speaker 7: So we're ready to take the escalator. We're gonna take

887
00:40:17,840 --> 00:40:21,839
Speaker 7: the money line Packers plus three sixty. That's implied twenty

888
00:40:21,880 --> 00:40:23,399
Speaker 7: two percent. I think it should be at least twenty

889
00:40:23,440 --> 00:40:28,080
Speaker 7: five thirty percent, maybe higher. What you gotta think ahead here.

890
00:40:28,160 --> 00:40:30,080
Speaker 7: You can't just take the money line. What happens if

891
00:40:30,120 --> 00:40:32,520
Speaker 7: the Packers who win, Okay, well we know what happens.

892
00:40:32,560 --> 00:40:36,280
Speaker 7: They play either Detroit or Tampa. All right, we already

893
00:40:36,320 --> 00:40:39,080
Speaker 7: played green Bay and in Detroit. We saw it on Thanksgiving.

894
00:40:39,080 --> 00:40:42,000
Speaker 7: We all watched green Bay dominate it in Detroit. We

895
00:40:42,040 --> 00:40:44,680
Speaker 7: all saw that game. That is a team that could

896
00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:47,840
Speaker 7: absolutely go to Detroit and win if it's Green Bay Tampa.

897
00:40:48,600 --> 00:40:49,000
Speaker 3: I don't know.

898
00:40:49,000 --> 00:40:50,919
Speaker 7: I kind of think the Packers are favored in that game.

899
00:40:50,960 --> 00:40:53,520
Speaker 7: They're certainly gonna be not much of an underdog, and

900
00:40:53,560 --> 00:40:55,160
Speaker 7: I think a lot of people be on the Packers

901
00:40:55,160 --> 00:40:58,200
Speaker 7: in that game. So if they win this one, Dallas

902
00:40:58,239 --> 00:41:00,839
Speaker 7: is already out, the one seed goes out out. Why

903
00:41:00,840 --> 00:41:03,400
Speaker 7: wouldn't they just win the next game too? Ten to

904
00:41:03,480 --> 00:41:07,160
Speaker 7: one green Bay Packers to win the NFC and get

905
00:41:07,160 --> 00:41:07,879
Speaker 7: to the super Bowl.

906
00:41:08,719 --> 00:41:11,720
Speaker 3: Don't forget. Here's the quarterbacks left of the NFC.

907
00:41:12,200 --> 00:41:17,280
Speaker 7: Brock Berdy, Baker, Mayfield, we got who am I forgetting?

908
00:41:17,400 --> 00:41:21,480
Speaker 7: Jared Goff and Jordan Love Right now, it is very

909
00:41:21,520 --> 00:41:23,480
Speaker 7: clear which quarterback you want out of those for how

910
00:41:23,520 --> 00:41:27,040
Speaker 7: often do you get the best quarterback, the most important

911
00:41:27,080 --> 00:41:30,600
Speaker 7: player on the field. Four teams left ten to one odds.

912
00:41:31,120 --> 00:41:33,480
Speaker 7: Give me the Packers ticket to make the super Bowl,

913
00:41:33,880 --> 00:41:35,759
Speaker 7: and I don't think they'll win if they get there,

914
00:41:35,760 --> 00:41:38,440
Speaker 7: but if they do, Packers are thirty to one to

915
00:41:38,480 --> 00:41:41,839
Speaker 7: win it all. You at least have to get that ticket. Also,

916
00:41:42,200 --> 00:41:44,680
Speaker 7: nothing else, You've got a thirty to one ticket on

917
00:41:44,719 --> 00:41:47,920
Speaker 7: the Super Bowl money line underdog. If nothing else, you

918
00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:50,640
Speaker 7: can hedge away. You can hedge play the other side.

919
00:41:50,680 --> 00:41:53,520
Speaker 7: Lock in your profits, skip the game entirely, watch the commercials,

920
00:41:53,520 --> 00:41:57,360
Speaker 7: and count your money. I'm taking the full Packers escalator.

921
00:41:57,800 --> 00:41:59,279
Speaker 7: If they pull us off, I pregnant. Have to go

922
00:41:59,320 --> 00:42:02,480
Speaker 7: buy the cheese head. Packers money line three sixty Packers

923
00:42:02,600 --> 00:42:05,720
Speaker 7: NFC at ten to one, Packers super Bowl thirty to one.

924
00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:08,920
Speaker 3: You know, nibbling on the way up. Just nibble the cheese.

925
00:42:09,360 --> 00:42:10,879
Speaker 3: But let's take Packers all the way.

926
00:42:11,239 --> 00:42:15,160
Speaker 1: Wow, Andy Moore, Niners, Jersey folks on the podcasts, those

927
00:42:15,360 --> 00:42:19,239
Speaker 1: those of you that are listening, all right, Jordan.

928
00:42:19,000 --> 00:42:22,520
Speaker 4: Love thirty three to one super Bowl MVP, another little

929
00:42:22,600 --> 00:42:23,680
Speaker 4: escalator added to it.

930
00:42:23,960 --> 00:42:26,200
Speaker 7: You know, I looked at that, But the super bowls

931
00:42:26,200 --> 00:42:27,280
Speaker 7: already twenty eight to one.

932
00:42:27,160 --> 00:42:29,960
Speaker 2: To win the super Bowl, so right, yeah, yeah, I

933
00:42:30,000 --> 00:42:30,440
Speaker 2: looked at that.

934
00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:33,680
Speaker 7: If someone say, best an aeron Jones MVP, that's like

935
00:42:33,680 --> 00:42:36,080
Speaker 7: two hundred and sixty to one or something. If I'm

936
00:42:36,080 --> 00:42:38,799
Speaker 7: gonna do the the further escalator on MVP, I think

937
00:42:38,840 --> 00:42:41,600
Speaker 7: I'd rather take something like that. Jones is so good

938
00:42:41,640 --> 00:42:43,799
Speaker 7: for that team and so important he gets a game

939
00:42:43,840 --> 00:42:46,040
Speaker 7: like last week where he steals the three touchdowns and

940
00:42:46,080 --> 00:42:49,320
Speaker 7: gets some yards late. I think i'd rather, if I'm escalating,

941
00:42:49,719 --> 00:42:52,000
Speaker 7: take something that's a real, real long.

942
00:42:51,760 --> 00:42:52,480
Speaker 3: Shot like that.

943
00:42:53,120 --> 00:42:55,680
Speaker 7: You know, obviously we know quarterbacks win MVP, so Love

944
00:42:55,760 --> 00:42:58,760
Speaker 7: is the likely candidate there. But to me, the extra

945
00:42:59,239 --> 00:43:02,920
Speaker 7: you know, couple couple cents on the dollar there basically

946
00:43:03,040 --> 00:43:04,960
Speaker 7: is not quite the risk. I'd rather just do the

947
00:43:05,000 --> 00:43:08,319
Speaker 7: super Bowl ticket. But you know what, I can't be

948
00:43:08,360 --> 00:43:10,920
Speaker 7: angry if we're nibbling cheese let's nibble all the way.

949
00:43:11,400 --> 00:43:14,040
Speaker 7: Let's we take it like a defensive player or like

950
00:43:14,080 --> 00:43:16,520
Speaker 7: the Andres Carlton the kicker. How about that for Super

951
00:43:16,520 --> 00:43:19,200
Speaker 7: Bowl MVP, let's just go all in here kidding, that's

952
00:43:19,200 --> 00:43:19,919
Speaker 7: not the real pick.

953
00:43:21,200 --> 00:43:23,440
Speaker 1: I'll tell you what. If we get Packers Lions in

954
00:43:23,480 --> 00:43:25,480
Speaker 1: the NFC title game, that is some good eating.

955
00:43:25,600 --> 00:43:27,320
Speaker 5: That is some good, cheesy eating.

956
00:43:28,600 --> 00:43:30,680
Speaker 1: I think we're gonna wrap it up with that because

957
00:43:31,000 --> 00:43:33,040
Speaker 1: we went a little long, but that was that was

958
00:43:33,080 --> 00:43:34,799
Speaker 1: worth the time. But when you put it that way,

959
00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:38,120
Speaker 1: with the four quarterbacks remaining hard to argue without Jordan

960
00:43:38,200 --> 00:43:41,000
Speaker 1: Loves playing right now in that offense, nothing to lose

961
00:43:41,320 --> 00:43:44,040
Speaker 1: house money. Youngest team to make the playoffs in league history,

962
00:43:44,480 --> 00:43:45,319
Speaker 1: that is going to do it.

963
00:43:45,360 --> 00:43:47,360
Speaker 5: Here on the Action Network podcast.

964
00:43:46,880 --> 00:43:49,719
Speaker 1: For our NFL Divisional Round Best Bets episode presented by

965
00:43:49,719 --> 00:43:52,600
Speaker 1: our friends at bet MGM. Don't forget to download the

966
00:43:52,600 --> 00:43:57,320
Speaker 1: free award winning Action Network app. Maybe Grant and Jill

967
00:43:57,440 --> 00:44:01,759
Speaker 1: they hop hop a board this chie when Brandon comes

968
00:44:01,800 --> 00:44:03,719
Speaker 1: out with the article, just keep an eye out for it.

969
00:44:03,719 --> 00:44:06,680
Speaker 5: It's coming in the Action app. Track your own picks.

970
00:44:06,480 --> 00:44:09,040
Speaker 1: As well, and of course, as I mentioned earlier, check

971
00:44:09,040 --> 00:44:11,279
Speaker 1: out the Action Network discord Server to chop it up

972
00:44:11,320 --> 00:44:13,399
Speaker 1: with experts as well as your friends. Best of luck

973
00:44:13,640 --> 00:44:16,160
Speaker 1: with all of your bets this weekend for Brandon Anderson,

974
00:44:16,480 --> 00:44:19,400
Speaker 1: Jill Glock, Grant Ney, for Brendan Glassjeen. Thanks for listening

975
00:44:19,400 --> 00:44:24,280
Speaker 1: to the Action Network podcast presented by BETMGM. Enjoy divisional

976
00:44:24,320 --> 00:44:25,040
Speaker 1: round weekend.

977
00:44:25,520 --> 00:44:26,160
Speaker 5: Best of luck.

978
00:44:41,960 --> 00:44:46,480
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

979
00:44:46,520 --> 00:44:49,279
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

980
00:44:49,320 --> 00:44:52,440
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler