Speaker 1: The Armow. We've been talking to a fair amount today,
Speaker 1: as we have for a while now, and how unsettled
Speaker 1: the world is in all kinds of different ways, the economy,
Speaker 1: the world order, military situations, variety. There's this virus that
Speaker 1: I've heard about. Ah, it's always great when we get
Speaker 1: a chance to talk to Ian Bremer, who is the
Speaker 1: president and founder of You Raise Your Group, a political
Speaker 1: risk research and consulting firm whose job is to figure
Speaker 1: out what's going on, not to please us politically, but
Speaker 1: to protect its clients, etcetera. Uh Ian joins us, Now,
Speaker 1: how are you sir? Hey, how are you men? Good
Speaker 1: to talk to you, Happy New Year. Thank you Sam.
Speaker 1: You Before we get started, we want you to know
Speaker 1: that something you said on your last appearance on The
Speaker 1: Armstrong and Getty Show has become a fan favorite. We
Speaker 1: play it all the time, Michael, if you'd be so kind,
Speaker 1: I thought we were going to play the long version
Speaker 1: of it. Hell, do you people not talk to each other?
Speaker 1: Rather be in Washington or in Beijing? Are be in
Speaker 1: the United States? Right? I don't I don't know if
Speaker 1: you recall saying that. And we've we wondered at the time,
Speaker 1: like did was that a slip of the tongue where
Speaker 1: you just excited? Did you forget we were on the air?
Speaker 1: Did you think we're a college radio show? We were
Speaker 1: just wondering what was going on? Did I thought I
Speaker 1: thought that you allowed um, you know, sort of more
Speaker 1: casual obscenities. We should. It's it's mighty hottest to promote
Speaker 1: to allow bull s to be used on the air.
Speaker 1: But now, yeah, we have millions and millions of podload downs,
Speaker 1: podcast downloads, but it starts as a radio show. So anyway,
Speaker 1: we are not sking you I and we are glad
Speaker 1: to be chatting with you about the Global risk list.
Speaker 1: It is compelling as always. Uh Now, as as former DJs,
Speaker 1: we might want to count down to number one, but
Speaker 1: let's just start with the number one. What what? What
Speaker 1: is number one? This year? Number one? Number one? While
Speaker 1: we've been living with this pandemic for the last two years,
Speaker 1: so it's hard to throw it out, especially with the
Speaker 1: gaudy number of cases that you know, seven fifty thousand
Speaker 1: yesterday in the US, and it's assure as an undercount.
Speaker 1: The name of the number one risk is no zero
Speaker 1: COVID and what that means because you know we're focusing
Speaker 1: on the whole year, is that Actually the biggest problem
Speaker 1: is China um the country that did the best job
Speaker 1: responding to COVID once they admitted to it back in
Speaker 1: because they could test and trace, they could walk down,
Speaker 1: they could quarantine. They're going to have an enormously hard
Speaker 1: time dealing with the newest variant O maicron, because, as
Speaker 1: you've seen from a bunch of Biden advisers the last
Speaker 1: couple of days, we need to pivot to living with
Speaker 1: the virus. We've got the therapeutics, we've got the vaccines,
Speaker 1: and it's not about case numbers anymore. It's about hospitalizations
Speaker 1: and depths. The Chinese can't do that, and they can't
Speaker 1: do it number one because their vaccines don't work in
Speaker 1: any way to stop omicron spread. Number two because no
Speaker 1: one in China has actually gotten the virus yet, so
Speaker 1: they have very low antibody levels and they're focusing on
Speaker 1: stopping spread. So they will shut down a city of
Speaker 1: thirteen million people with a handful of cases. They have
Speaker 1: the ability to do it. The impact of that this
Speaker 1: year on the Chinese economy and on the Chinese supply
Speaker 1: chain to the rest of the world is going to
Speaker 1: be really, really big, and no one's really focusing on
Speaker 1: this yet, so that that strikes us as the biggest
Speaker 1: problem out there. Okay, so you got to that at
Speaker 1: the end there. That makes sense because while I'm I'm
Speaker 1: not a horrible human being that doesn't care about people,
Speaker 1: are not that concerned about how many people in China
Speaker 1: end up getting COVID, the fact that it affects the
Speaker 1: supply chain for the rest of the world. You think
Speaker 1: that's gonna be a noticeable problem. Yes, the second largest
Speaker 1: economy in the world, and it's the factory for the world.
Speaker 1: And you know, if you ask Americans what they're most
Speaker 1: concerned about right now and what's driving Biden's comparatively low popularity,
Speaker 1: they'll say inflation. Where do you think that comes from?
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, we've had real difficulties getting goods
Speaker 1: from China. We've had real challenges with port facilities and
Speaker 1: with containerships and the rest of that. That should get
Speaker 1: fixed a lot faster if we're all able to live
Speaker 1: with the virus. But if the world's second largest economy
Speaker 1: and biggest producer of stuff that we need is actually
Speaker 1: locking down like crazy all year and by the way,
Speaker 1: you know, they won't even license western m RNA vaccines
Speaker 1: like you know Fizer and Maderia. They're waiting for their
Speaker 1: own Chinese mRNA vaccine, which they're pushing hard. But it's
Speaker 1: not going read until the end of the year for
Speaker 1: for big for big league population rollout. So is a
Speaker 1: problem here, It's it's just really interesting. I'd say it is,
Speaker 1: hey and not And I want to get too far
Speaker 1: off of your your list of risk because we look
Speaker 1: forward to it every year. But how big a deal
Speaker 1: is it that we found out this year that she
Speaker 1: is actually a communist. I mean he's not just like
Speaker 1: a Putin style dictator who wants to be rich and powerful.
Speaker 1: It would seem as an actual communists like reigning back
Speaker 1: the you know, the successful businesses and sectors. In a
Speaker 1: weird way, that seems like good news for us. Uh.
Speaker 1: You know, the Chinese economy right now is more unequal
Speaker 1: than even the United States, and for an ostensibly socialist country. Um,
Speaker 1: that's a problem. And so what you have is she's
Speaker 1: and thing acting like an authoritarian populist saying no, I
Speaker 1: don't I don't care about jack ma, I care about
Speaker 1: the working class in the middle class, and and and
Speaker 1: that means I'm willing to take some hits in terms
Speaker 1: of my private sector. So I don't know. If you
Speaker 1: saw the Chinese government a few months ago said if
Speaker 1: your kid you get two hours a week on video games,
Speaker 1: you don't lose, you don't use them, they don't roll
Speaker 1: over to the next week. You know a lot of
Speaker 1: American parents that would love to put that in place too.
Speaker 1: But the fact is that that that's basically, you know,
Speaker 1: cut an enormous amount of wealth generation out of the companies.
Speaker 1: He doesn't care. So I do think that that's going
Speaker 1: to be a hit for a number of really, really
Speaker 1: profitable Chinese firms. I want to be clear. That's very
Speaker 1: different than say Chinese semiconductor industry, which they are putting
Speaker 1: an enormous amount of money and they want to be
Speaker 1: world class. That's very different from artificial intelligence and smart
Speaker 1: cities and sensors and autonomous driving, where the Chinese want
Speaker 1: their companies to be world leaders. So I think that
Speaker 1: you may be over egging the putting a bit by
Speaker 1: saying that this is the year we found out she
Speaker 1: is a communist. Yeah, cut it out, ye over egger Um.
Speaker 1: We could We could talk for the next month about China,
Speaker 1: but let's move on to number two, which I found
Speaker 1: so interesting, the techno polar world. The report says, the
Speaker 1: physical world is a mess because no countries are willing
Speaker 1: or able to provide global leadership. Digital spaces even more
Speaker 1: poorly governed, do tell but we're so everyone is angry
Speaker 1: at the big tech companies now because so much disinformation,
Speaker 1: because there's so many challenges in terms of cyber at
Speaker 1: tax and personal security getting hacked and critical infrastructure getting hacked,
Speaker 1: and so you're hearing people say, well, government has to
Speaker 1: do something about this. Companies. Tech companies are gonna get
Speaker 1: richer and more powerful faster than governments can catch up
Speaker 1: to regulate them. And that means more disinformation, more anxious populations,
Speaker 1: more problems in in governance and elections. You know, when
Speaker 1: you and I were kids, we would if you wanted
Speaker 1: to figure out how screwed up we are, we would say, well,
Speaker 1: it was either the way you were brought up, its nurture,
Speaker 1: or it's your genetics. It's nature. Increasingly it's actually nature
Speaker 1: versus nurture versus algorithms. It's you know, the it's the
Speaker 1: virtual world and the way that kids are getting information
Speaker 1: and connecting with people as intermediated by these algorithms driven
Speaker 1: by tech companies. And you know we're doing that without
Speaker 1: testing them on on anyone. First. You wouldn't do that
Speaker 1: with the drug, you wouldn't do that with the GMO crop.
Speaker 1: But we're doing that with literally the the thought processes
Speaker 1: of the brains of our children. And I don't see
Speaker 1: how that isn't becoming a much more significant ristmers society. Wow.
Speaker 1: As a as a guy who's raising a nine year
Speaker 1: old an eleven year old boy right now and dealing
Speaker 1: with a lot of that, that is, man, that's a
Speaker 1: heap and help on the stuff to think about right there.
Speaker 1: That is really interesting. Well, you know that these the
Speaker 1: executives from these companies don't let their kids on this stuff, right, So,
Speaker 1: perhaps I'm an idiot because I thought, um, and and
Speaker 1: about half the audience is saying, perhaps, um, I I
Speaker 1: thought the US midterms is going to be fairly predictable
Speaker 1: and probably not a great note. You disagree, obviously, that's
Speaker 1: behind your list at number three, tell us what you're thinking. Well, look,
Speaker 1: I mean this is in part this is because the
Speaker 1: election is so critically important for UM, and in part
Speaker 1: it's because the United States is fundamentally more politically dysfunctional
Speaker 1: and divided than any of our major advanced industrial allies.
Speaker 1: I mean, we've had elections in the last few months
Speaker 1: in Germany, Japan, in Canada, they've all been fine, free
Speaker 1: and fair. Will happen the next few months. In South
Speaker 1: Korea grants no problem, we can. We can no longer
Speaker 1: have free, fair, legitimate national elections in the United States.
Speaker 1: The losing side thinks that they're illegitimate and stolen. And
Speaker 1: that started in sixteen with the Russia collusion story. Hillary
Speaker 1: Clinton didn't support it, but a lot of Democrats did.
Speaker 1: It got much worse in because Trump himself pushed the
Speaker 1: big lie and has been doing it very effectively with
Speaker 1: his supporters for the last year. And now we're setting
Speaker 1: up for the midterm elections where I mean, you know,
Speaker 1: the Republicans led by Trump are very likely to take
Speaker 1: the House, maybe the Senate, and key gubernatorial and state legislatures,
Speaker 1: which are going to be critical for certifying the election
Speaker 1: in So this is kind of a tipping point for
Speaker 1: what is likely to be a much more problematic and
Speaker 1: dare I say crisis cycles in the run up number
Speaker 1: five on the list, skipping. Another China related topic is Russia.
Speaker 1: There's a huge divide in the United States between people
Speaker 1: who are critically interested in that and people who say
Speaker 1: it's a border dispute in Eastern Europe. What the hell
Speaker 1: do we care? Why should we care? Well? Um, we
Speaker 1: care in part because the Europeans are our most important allies.
Speaker 1: The trans atlantic relationship matters. Um. And we also care
Speaker 1: because the Russians engage in a set asymmetric power efforts
Speaker 1: to undermine us UH and weaken our trans atlantic relationship,
Speaker 1: and and the incursions into Ukraine, the invasion back in
Speaker 1: was a part of that. So Russia, look, they're making
Speaker 1: a lot of money off of higher energy prices, and
Speaker 1: as the winter is coming, the Europeans need Russian gas
Speaker 1: and they're facing shortages. So this is high time for
Speaker 1: the Russians to cause trouble for the West, and that's
Speaker 1: why they put a hundred thousand troops on Ukraine's border.
Speaker 1: We got together with the Europeans and said, if you
Speaker 1: invade UM, we're gonna sanction you so hard. Your your
Speaker 1: economy is going to be destroyed. And the question is,
Speaker 1: are the Russians prepared to call that bluff in full
Speaker 1: or in part. And if they if they call that
Speaker 1: bluff in part, is it possible that the Americans are
Speaker 1: on board and the Europeans are not and Biden looks
Speaker 1: really weak and the relationship really blows up. I would
Speaker 1: like to congratulate you for getting through this much without
Speaker 1: any of your trucker language that nearly cost us our
Speaker 1: FCC license last time. But um no, I mean, who's
Speaker 1: who's going to think about the children? It's important exactly.
Speaker 1: We were just talking about the op ed piece in
Speaker 1: the Wall Street Journal today by a couple of think
Speaker 1: tank experts about how Biden's got a tough decision to make,
Speaker 1: like in the coming weeks maybe about Iran. Do you
Speaker 1: rank that we're screwed on Iran? Can I say that? Yeah? Good? Um?
Speaker 1: I mean this is the one policy, foreign policy that
Speaker 1: Trump actually destroyed. Um. I mean, there a lot of
Speaker 1: things Trump did to overturn stuff that Obama did, and
Speaker 1: then we went back, so Paris Climate Accord, he pulls out,
Speaker 1: we go back in nobody cares. Um. You know, he
Speaker 1: says We're gonna leave the World Health Organization, the Middle
Speaker 1: pandemic Biden recommits. Nobody cares. He leaves the Iranian nuclear deal,
Speaker 1: which Rex Tillerson, you know that the Secretary of State
Speaker 1: for a hot second actually said that the Iranians were
Speaker 1: complying with Everyone supports us staying in the deal. He leaves.
Speaker 1: Biden wants to get back in. We can't get back
Speaker 1: in because the Iranians said, nope, we're we're fully We're
Speaker 1: full speed ahead with our nuclear program. There are now
Speaker 1: four weeks away from nuclear breakout capability, four weeks allied,
Speaker 1: four weeks, four weeks in terms of highly enriched geranium stockpiling,
Speaker 1: four weeks away from having the capacity to developing were weapon.
Speaker 1: Do we strike them in a major military way the
Speaker 1: way the Wall Street Journal op ed piece suggests, I mean,
Speaker 1: certainly the Israelis will up their sabotage game, and the
Speaker 1: likelihood that this becomes a military confrontation is going up.
Speaker 1: This is this is a crisis that is now directly
Speaker 1: on Biden's lab because the US unilaterally decided to rip
Speaker 1: up the deal. We will have a link to the
Speaker 1: Eurasia Groups two risk Report Top Risks two if you
Speaker 1: want to look at the rest of it, And as always,
Speaker 1: we can talk to you all day, but you have
Speaker 1: a limited time. We thank you so much for the
Speaker 1: inc We look forward to the next dance to talk.
Speaker 1: Happy New Year, gentlemen, be good you two thanks. Four
Speaker 1: weeks his number for when Iran has breakout? Are you
Speaker 1: pooping me? So? If there's gonna be a military strike,
Speaker 1: it's coming soon. Yeah. Hey, we know a lot of
Speaker 1: Trump fans can't stand it. He he calls, calls him
Speaker 1: as he sees him. He thinks Trump made some big
Speaker 1: mistakes and he doesn't care who who's mad. We think
Speaker 1: he's an interesting guy, so we talked to him. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I think the Iranian thing would have turned out the
Speaker 1: same way either way, but it's slight change in timetable
Speaker 1: maybe honestly strong and yet