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Speaker 1: The Armow. We've been talking to a fair amount today,

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Speaker 1: as we have for a while now, and how unsettled

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Speaker 1: the world is in all kinds of different ways, the economy,

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Speaker 1: the world order, military situations, variety. There's this virus that

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Speaker 1: I've heard about. Ah, it's always great when we get

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Speaker 1: a chance to talk to Ian Bremer, who is the

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Speaker 1: president and founder of You Raise Your Group, a political

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Speaker 1: risk research and consulting firm whose job is to figure

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Speaker 1: out what's going on, not to please us politically, but

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Speaker 1: to protect its clients, etcetera. Uh Ian joins us, Now,

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Speaker 1: how are you sir? Hey, how are you men? Good

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Speaker 1: to talk to you, Happy New Year. Thank you Sam.

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Speaker 1: You Before we get started, we want you to know

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Speaker 1: that something you said on your last appearance on The

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Speaker 1: Armstrong and Getty Show has become a fan favorite. We

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Speaker 1: play it all the time, Michael, if you'd be so kind,

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Speaker 1: I thought we were going to play the long version

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Speaker 1: of it. Hell, do you people not talk to each other?

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Speaker 1: Rather be in Washington or in Beijing? Are be in

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Speaker 1: the United States? Right? I don't I don't know if

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Speaker 1: you recall saying that. And we've we wondered at the time,

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Speaker 1: like did was that a slip of the tongue where

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Speaker 1: you just excited? Did you forget we were on the air?

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Speaker 1: Did you think we're a college radio show? We were

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Speaker 1: just wondering what was going on? Did I thought I

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Speaker 1: thought that you allowed um, you know, sort of more

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Speaker 1: casual obscenities. We should. It's it's mighty hottest to promote

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Speaker 1: to allow bull s to be used on the air.

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Speaker 1: But now, yeah, we have millions and millions of podload downs,

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Speaker 1: podcast downloads, but it starts as a radio show. So anyway,

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Speaker 1: we are not sking you I and we are glad

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Speaker 1: to be chatting with you about the Global risk list.

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Speaker 1: It is compelling as always. Uh Now, as as former DJs,

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Speaker 1: we might want to count down to number one, but

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Speaker 1: let's just start with the number one. What what? What

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Speaker 1: is number one? This year? Number one? Number one? While

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Speaker 1: we've been living with this pandemic for the last two years,

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Speaker 1: so it's hard to throw it out, especially with the

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Speaker 1: gaudy number of cases that you know, seven fifty thousand

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Speaker 1: yesterday in the US, and it's assure as an undercount.

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Speaker 1: The name of the number one risk is no zero

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Speaker 1: COVID and what that means because you know we're focusing

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Speaker 1: on the whole year, is that Actually the biggest problem

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Speaker 1: is China um the country that did the best job

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Speaker 1: responding to COVID once they admitted to it back in

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Speaker 1: because they could test and trace, they could walk down,

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Speaker 1: they could quarantine. They're going to have an enormously hard

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Speaker 1: time dealing with the newest variant O maicron, because, as

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Speaker 1: you've seen from a bunch of Biden advisers the last

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Speaker 1: couple of days, we need to pivot to living with

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Speaker 1: the virus. We've got the therapeutics, we've got the vaccines,

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Speaker 1: and it's not about case numbers anymore. It's about hospitalizations

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Speaker 1: and depths. The Chinese can't do that, and they can't

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Speaker 1: do it number one because their vaccines don't work in

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Speaker 1: any way to stop omicron spread. Number two because no

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Speaker 1: one in China has actually gotten the virus yet, so

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Speaker 1: they have very low antibody levels and they're focusing on

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Speaker 1: stopping spread. So they will shut down a city of

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Speaker 1: thirteen million people with a handful of cases. They have

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Speaker 1: the ability to do it. The impact of that this

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Speaker 1: year on the Chinese economy and on the Chinese supply

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Speaker 1: chain to the rest of the world is going to

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Speaker 1: be really, really big, and no one's really focusing on

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Speaker 1: this yet, so that that strikes us as the biggest

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Speaker 1: problem out there. Okay, so you got to that at

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Speaker 1: the end there. That makes sense because while I'm I'm

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Speaker 1: not a horrible human being that doesn't care about people,

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Speaker 1: are not that concerned about how many people in China

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Speaker 1: end up getting COVID, the fact that it affects the

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Speaker 1: supply chain for the rest of the world. You think

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Speaker 1: that's gonna be a noticeable problem. Yes, the second largest

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Speaker 1: economy in the world, and it's the factory for the world.

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Speaker 1: And you know, if you ask Americans what they're most

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Speaker 1: concerned about right now and what's driving Biden's comparatively low popularity,

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Speaker 1: they'll say inflation. Where do you think that comes from?

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Speaker 1: I mean, you know, we've had real difficulties getting goods

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Speaker 1: from China. We've had real challenges with port facilities and

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Speaker 1: with containerships and the rest of that. That should get

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Speaker 1: fixed a lot faster if we're all able to live

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Speaker 1: with the virus. But if the world's second largest economy

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Speaker 1: and biggest producer of stuff that we need is actually

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Speaker 1: locking down like crazy all year and by the way,

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Speaker 1: you know, they won't even license western m RNA vaccines

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Speaker 1: like you know Fizer and Maderia. They're waiting for their

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Speaker 1: own Chinese mRNA vaccine, which they're pushing hard. But it's

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Speaker 1: not going read until the end of the year for

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Speaker 1: for big for big league population rollout. So is a

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Speaker 1: problem here, It's it's just really interesting. I'd say it is,

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Speaker 1: hey and not And I want to get too far

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Speaker 1: off of your your list of risk because we look

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Speaker 1: forward to it every year. But how big a deal

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Speaker 1: is it that we found out this year that she

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Speaker 1: is actually a communist. I mean he's not just like

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Speaker 1: a Putin style dictator who wants to be rich and powerful.

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Speaker 1: It would seem as an actual communists like reigning back

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Speaker 1: the you know, the successful businesses and sectors. In a

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Speaker 1: weird way, that seems like good news for us. Uh.

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Speaker 1: You know, the Chinese economy right now is more unequal

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Speaker 1: than even the United States, and for an ostensibly socialist country. Um,

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Speaker 1: that's a problem. And so what you have is she's

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Speaker 1: and thing acting like an authoritarian populist saying no, I

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Speaker 1: don't I don't care about jack ma, I care about

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Speaker 1: the working class in the middle class, and and and

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Speaker 1: that means I'm willing to take some hits in terms

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Speaker 1: of my private sector. So I don't know. If you

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Speaker 1: saw the Chinese government a few months ago said if

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Speaker 1: your kid you get two hours a week on video games,

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Speaker 1: you don't lose, you don't use them, they don't roll

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Speaker 1: over to the next week. You know a lot of

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Speaker 1: American parents that would love to put that in place too.

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Speaker 1: But the fact is that that that's basically, you know,

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Speaker 1: cut an enormous amount of wealth generation out of the companies.

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Speaker 1: He doesn't care. So I do think that that's going

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Speaker 1: to be a hit for a number of really, really

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Speaker 1: profitable Chinese firms. I want to be clear. That's very

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Speaker 1: different than say Chinese semiconductor industry, which they are putting

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Speaker 1: an enormous amount of money and they want to be

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Speaker 1: world class. That's very different from artificial intelligence and smart

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Speaker 1: cities and sensors and autonomous driving, where the Chinese want

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Speaker 1: their companies to be world leaders. So I think that

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Speaker 1: you may be over egging the putting a bit by

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Speaker 1: saying that this is the year we found out she

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Speaker 1: is a communist. Yeah, cut it out, ye over egger Um.

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Speaker 1: We could We could talk for the next month about China,

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Speaker 1: but let's move on to number two, which I found

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Speaker 1: so interesting, the techno polar world. The report says, the

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Speaker 1: physical world is a mess because no countries are willing

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Speaker 1: or able to provide global leadership. Digital spaces even more

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Speaker 1: poorly governed, do tell but we're so everyone is angry

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Speaker 1: at the big tech companies now because so much disinformation,

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Speaker 1: because there's so many challenges in terms of cyber at

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Speaker 1: tax and personal security getting hacked and critical infrastructure getting hacked,

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Speaker 1: and so you're hearing people say, well, government has to

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Speaker 1: do something about this. Companies. Tech companies are gonna get

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Speaker 1: richer and more powerful faster than governments can catch up

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Speaker 1: to regulate them. And that means more disinformation, more anxious populations,

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Speaker 1: more problems in in governance and elections. You know, when

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Speaker 1: you and I were kids, we would if you wanted

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Speaker 1: to figure out how screwed up we are, we would say, well,

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Speaker 1: it was either the way you were brought up, its nurture,

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Speaker 1: or it's your genetics. It's nature. Increasingly it's actually nature

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Speaker 1: versus nurture versus algorithms. It's you know, the it's the

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Speaker 1: virtual world and the way that kids are getting information

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Speaker 1: and connecting with people as intermediated by these algorithms driven

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Speaker 1: by tech companies. And you know we're doing that without

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Speaker 1: testing them on on anyone. First. You wouldn't do that

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Speaker 1: with the drug, you wouldn't do that with the GMO crop.

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Speaker 1: But we're doing that with literally the the thought processes

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Speaker 1: of the brains of our children. And I don't see

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Speaker 1: how that isn't becoming a much more significant ristmers society. Wow.

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Speaker 1: As a as a guy who's raising a nine year

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Speaker 1: old an eleven year old boy right now and dealing

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Speaker 1: with a lot of that, that is, man, that's a

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Speaker 1: heap and help on the stuff to think about right there.

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Speaker 1: That is really interesting. Well, you know that these the

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Speaker 1: executives from these companies don't let their kids on this stuff, right, So,

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Speaker 1: perhaps I'm an idiot because I thought, um, and and

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Speaker 1: about half the audience is saying, perhaps, um, I I

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Speaker 1: thought the US midterms is going to be fairly predictable

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Speaker 1: and probably not a great note. You disagree, obviously, that's

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Speaker 1: behind your list at number three, tell us what you're thinking. Well, look,

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Speaker 1: I mean this is in part this is because the

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Speaker 1: election is so critically important for UM, and in part

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Speaker 1: it's because the United States is fundamentally more politically dysfunctional

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Speaker 1: and divided than any of our major advanced industrial allies.

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Speaker 1: I mean, we've had elections in the last few months

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Speaker 1: in Germany, Japan, in Canada, they've all been fine, free

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Speaker 1: and fair. Will happen the next few months. In South

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Speaker 1: Korea grants no problem, we can. We can no longer

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Speaker 1: have free, fair, legitimate national elections in the United States.

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Speaker 1: The losing side thinks that they're illegitimate and stolen. And

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Speaker 1: that started in sixteen with the Russia collusion story. Hillary

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Speaker 1: Clinton didn't support it, but a lot of Democrats did.

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Speaker 1: It got much worse in because Trump himself pushed the

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Speaker 1: big lie and has been doing it very effectively with

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Speaker 1: his supporters for the last year. And now we're setting

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Speaker 1: up for the midterm elections where I mean, you know,

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Speaker 1: the Republicans led by Trump are very likely to take

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Speaker 1: the House, maybe the Senate, and key gubernatorial and state legislatures,

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Speaker 1: which are going to be critical for certifying the election

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Speaker 1: in So this is kind of a tipping point for

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Speaker 1: what is likely to be a much more problematic and

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Speaker 1: dare I say crisis cycles in the run up number

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Speaker 1: five on the list, skipping. Another China related topic is Russia.

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Speaker 1: There's a huge divide in the United States between people

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Speaker 1: who are critically interested in that and people who say

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Speaker 1: it's a border dispute in Eastern Europe. What the hell

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Speaker 1: do we care? Why should we care? Well? Um, we

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Speaker 1: care in part because the Europeans are our most important allies.

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Speaker 1: The trans atlantic relationship matters. Um. And we also care

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Speaker 1: because the Russians engage in a set asymmetric power efforts

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Speaker 1: to undermine us UH and weaken our trans atlantic relationship,

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Speaker 1: and and the incursions into Ukraine, the invasion back in

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Speaker 1: was a part of that. So Russia, look, they're making

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Speaker 1: a lot of money off of higher energy prices, and

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Speaker 1: as the winter is coming, the Europeans need Russian gas

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Speaker 1: and they're facing shortages. So this is high time for

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Speaker 1: the Russians to cause trouble for the West, and that's

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Speaker 1: why they put a hundred thousand troops on Ukraine's border.

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Speaker 1: We got together with the Europeans and said, if you

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Speaker 1: invade UM, we're gonna sanction you so hard. Your your

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Speaker 1: economy is going to be destroyed. And the question is,

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Speaker 1: are the Russians prepared to call that bluff in full

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Speaker 1: or in part. And if they if they call that

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Speaker 1: bluff in part, is it possible that the Americans are

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Speaker 1: on board and the Europeans are not and Biden looks

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Speaker 1: really weak and the relationship really blows up. I would

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Speaker 1: like to congratulate you for getting through this much without

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Speaker 1: any of your trucker language that nearly cost us our

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Speaker 1: FCC license last time. But um no, I mean, who's

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Speaker 1: who's going to think about the children? It's important exactly.

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Speaker 1: We were just talking about the op ed piece in

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Speaker 1: the Wall Street Journal today by a couple of think

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Speaker 1: tank experts about how Biden's got a tough decision to make,

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Speaker 1: like in the coming weeks maybe about Iran. Do you

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Speaker 1: rank that we're screwed on Iran? Can I say that? Yeah? Good? Um?

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Speaker 1: I mean this is the one policy, foreign policy that

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Speaker 1: Trump actually destroyed. Um. I mean, there a lot of

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Speaker 1: things Trump did to overturn stuff that Obama did, and

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Speaker 1: then we went back, so Paris Climate Accord, he pulls out,

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Speaker 1: we go back in nobody cares. Um. You know, he

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Speaker 1: says We're gonna leave the World Health Organization, the Middle

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Speaker 1: pandemic Biden recommits. Nobody cares. He leaves the Iranian nuclear deal,

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Speaker 1: which Rex Tillerson, you know that the Secretary of State

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Speaker 1: for a hot second actually said that the Iranians were

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Speaker 1: complying with Everyone supports us staying in the deal. He leaves.

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Speaker 1: Biden wants to get back in. We can't get back

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Speaker 1: in because the Iranians said, nope, we're we're fully We're

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Speaker 1: full speed ahead with our nuclear program. There are now

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Speaker 1: four weeks away from nuclear breakout capability, four weeks allied,

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Speaker 1: four weeks, four weeks in terms of highly enriched geranium stockpiling,

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Speaker 1: four weeks away from having the capacity to developing were weapon.

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Speaker 1: Do we strike them in a major military way the

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Speaker 1: way the Wall Street Journal op ed piece suggests, I mean,

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Speaker 1: certainly the Israelis will up their sabotage game, and the

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Speaker 1: likelihood that this becomes a military confrontation is going up.

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Speaker 1: This is this is a crisis that is now directly

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Speaker 1: on Biden's lab because the US unilaterally decided to rip

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Speaker 1: up the deal. We will have a link to the

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Speaker 1: Eurasia Groups two risk Report Top Risks two if you

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Speaker 1: want to look at the rest of it, And as always,

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Speaker 1: we can talk to you all day, but you have

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Speaker 1: a limited time. We thank you so much for the

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Speaker 1: inc We look forward to the next dance to talk.

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Speaker 1: Happy New Year, gentlemen, be good you two thanks. Four

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Speaker 1: weeks his number for when Iran has breakout? Are you

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Speaker 1: pooping me? So? If there's gonna be a military strike,

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Speaker 1: it's coming soon. Yeah. Hey, we know a lot of

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Speaker 1: Trump fans can't stand it. He he calls, calls him

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Speaker 1: as he sees him. He thinks Trump made some big

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Speaker 1: mistakes and he doesn't care who who's mad. We think

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Speaker 1: he's an interesting guy, so we talked to him. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I think the Iranian thing would have turned out the

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Speaker 1: same way either way, but it's slight change in timetable

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Speaker 1: maybe honestly strong and yet