1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:05,840 Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ zachera 2 00:00:06,160 --> 00:00:14,360 Speaker 1: JJ zacherfan. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this 3 00:00:14,440 --> 00:00:18,120 Speaker 1: episode ten to eighty of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast. 4 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:21,640 Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in. I'm back from San Francisco. I'm 5 00:00:21,640 --> 00:00:24,439 Speaker 1: back from Radio Row. The super Bowl's over. Congrats the 6 00:00:24,480 --> 00:00:27,400 Speaker 1: Seahawks fans. That means if we're officially in the off season. 7 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:30,200 Speaker 1: Though hopefully you guys like the change of pace of 8 00:00:30,320 --> 00:00:32,879 Speaker 1: last week's shows, but we're full blown back to the 9 00:00:32,920 --> 00:00:36,600 Speaker 1: regular podcast schedule starting with this episode. What you already 10 00:00:36,600 --> 00:00:39,839 Speaker 1: saw was sell candidates. I talked about some buy candidates 11 00:00:39,920 --> 00:00:42,760 Speaker 1: last week. This is just the reverse players you might 12 00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:46,680 Speaker 1: want to consider trading away from your dynasty teams. Cells 13 00:00:46,720 --> 00:00:49,160 Speaker 1: are always more difficult than buys because we have fewer 14 00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:51,840 Speaker 1: players to choose from. With buys, we can get deep, 15 00:00:52,320 --> 00:00:54,680 Speaker 1: we can talk about bottom of the barrel players who 16 00:00:54,760 --> 00:00:57,360 Speaker 1: we can get for cheap. With cells, it doesn't make 17 00:00:57,400 --> 00:00:58,960 Speaker 1: that much sense for me to say that you should 18 00:00:59,000 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 1: sell someone who ranks as like the two hundredth overall player. 19 00:01:02,960 --> 00:01:04,880 Speaker 1: In order for a player to be a cell, he's 20 00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:07,720 Speaker 1: got to give you something decent in return, so to 21 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:09,679 Speaker 1: help me out with today's list. I looked at my 22 00:01:09,760 --> 00:01:13,039 Speaker 1: Dynasty rankings and I compared those rankings to keep Trade Cut. 23 00:01:13,520 --> 00:01:16,640 Speaker 1: It's not perfect, but that site at least allows me 24 00:01:16,680 --> 00:01:19,920 Speaker 1: to get some baseline for market sentiment. If my rankings 25 00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:21,960 Speaker 1: like a player far less than where he's ranked on 26 00:01:22,080 --> 00:01:25,200 Speaker 1: Keep Trade Cut, I figured he's probably worthwhile to call out. 27 00:01:25,959 --> 00:01:28,280 Speaker 1: Keep in mind, though I don't think these players are 28 00:01:28,280 --> 00:01:31,240 Speaker 1: trade candidates no matter what. They're just players who I 29 00:01:31,280 --> 00:01:35,600 Speaker 1: appear to be lower on versus consensus in your individual league. 30 00:01:35,840 --> 00:01:36,959 Speaker 2: That might not be the case. 31 00:01:37,760 --> 00:01:40,480 Speaker 1: This is just a conversation starter, and it allows you 32 00:01:40,520 --> 00:01:42,320 Speaker 1: to hear some logic that you might be able to 33 00:01:42,400 --> 00:01:46,400 Speaker 1: apply to your teams and your own circumstances. Now, before 34 00:01:46,440 --> 00:01:48,000 Speaker 1: we get to those cells, I just want to send 35 00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:50,360 Speaker 1: another reminder that the twenty twenty sixth version of the 36 00:01:50,440 --> 00:01:53,680 Speaker 1: Late Round Prospect Guide it's currently available. 37 00:01:53,160 --> 00:01:53,800 Speaker 2: For pre order. 38 00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:57,040 Speaker 1: This year's guide is bigger and better than ever. Seriously, 39 00:01:57,640 --> 00:01:59,880 Speaker 1: not only have I revamped the models, but you're now 40 00:02:00,160 --> 00:02:02,840 Speaker 1: to get tight end profiles, not just tight end scores. 41 00:02:03,560 --> 00:02:06,200 Speaker 1: Myself and Brandon Gadola have been working really hard on 42 00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:08,520 Speaker 1: getting it all done. It's going to release in the 43 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:11,680 Speaker 1: middle of March to learn more and get that discounted 44 00:02:11,720 --> 00:02:16,919 Speaker 1: pre order price, just head the late round dot Com. 45 00:02:17,120 --> 00:02:20,120 Speaker 1: One area where Dynasty managers can really win big is 46 00:02:20,160 --> 00:02:22,200 Speaker 1: not just knowing when to sell players high, but when 47 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:25,040 Speaker 1: to sell younger players high. Age is going to be 48 00:02:25,040 --> 00:02:28,040 Speaker 1: part of the value equation for every player. The older 49 00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:30,560 Speaker 1: a player is, the less valuable he is in Dynasty. 50 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:33,120 Speaker 1: So if you can find a younger player who might 51 00:02:33,160 --> 00:02:35,359 Speaker 1: have peaked or who might not see that much more 52 00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:38,080 Speaker 1: of a value bump, and if you sell that player 53 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:41,720 Speaker 1: at the right time, it's massive for your Dynasty teams 54 00:02:42,360 --> 00:02:44,720 Speaker 1: one of those players. For me right now, this might 55 00:02:44,720 --> 00:02:48,919 Speaker 1: be a little controversial, but it's traveon Henderson as tough 56 00:02:48,919 --> 00:02:52,359 Speaker 1: as it is to admit that Henderson currently sits thirtieth 57 00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:55,160 Speaker 1: overall over on keep trade cut for superflex leagues as 58 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:59,399 Speaker 1: the RB seven. Now, admittedly I can kind of understand 59 00:02:59,400 --> 00:03:02,920 Speaker 1: why he's the R kind of I do personally think 60 00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:06,919 Speaker 1: that someone like James Cook makes more sense than Trayvon Henderson, 61 00:03:07,680 --> 00:03:10,520 Speaker 1: but running back has a lot of volatility once you 62 00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:13,520 Speaker 1: get to that range in Dynasty, it's really tough for 63 00:03:13,560 --> 00:03:16,840 Speaker 1: me to back that kind of cost though. Overall now 64 00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:18,519 Speaker 1: As many of you know, I have the year two 65 00:03:18,560 --> 00:03:20,680 Speaker 1: model that helps me figure out how well a player's 66 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:24,000 Speaker 1: gonna perform after his rookie season in the league. It 67 00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:27,280 Speaker 1: takes a player's prospect score, his Zapp score, some Year 68 00:03:27,320 --> 00:03:29,640 Speaker 1: one inputs, and then it spits out a score that 69 00:03:29,720 --> 00:03:33,720 Speaker 1: helps forecast the players year two through year four that 70 00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:36,120 Speaker 1: changed year over year. I used to just look at 71 00:03:36,200 --> 00:03:38,960 Speaker 1: years two and three. I added year four this year 72 00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:42,920 Speaker 1: to add some stability to that model. Trayvon Henderson's year 73 00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:45,840 Speaker 1: two score is seventy three point nine. Now that means 74 00:03:45,880 --> 00:03:48,040 Speaker 1: nothing to people right now because I changed the scaling 75 00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:50,800 Speaker 1: of the scores in the Zapp and Year two models, 76 00:03:50,840 --> 00:03:54,520 Speaker 1: But essentially he's part of the weekly starter category, not 77 00:03:54,640 --> 00:03:58,640 Speaker 1: the elite producer category. The elite producer category that's where 78 00:03:58,640 --> 00:04:02,200 Speaker 1: someone like Amri and Hampton sit right now. Weekly starters 79 00:04:02,200 --> 00:04:04,320 Speaker 1: are solid, and to be fair, Henderson's on the upper 80 00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:07,000 Speaker 1: range of it with his score, but they're more like 81 00:04:07,200 --> 00:04:10,240 Speaker 1: RB two types from a ceiling perspective than RB one's. 82 00:04:11,040 --> 00:04:13,560 Speaker 1: To reiterate, the year two model looks at how well 83 00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:16,599 Speaker 1: a player performs in years two through four, and it 84 00:04:16,680 --> 00:04:19,400 Speaker 1: measures that through their best two seasons average in PPR 85 00:04:19,400 --> 00:04:23,200 Speaker 1: points per game During those three years. We do see 86 00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:26,479 Speaker 1: some studs come from the weekly Starter category, but eleven 87 00:04:26,520 --> 00:04:28,960 Speaker 1: percent of them have a best two seasons average above 88 00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:32,240 Speaker 1: eighteen PPR points per game. Twenty two percent of them 89 00:04:32,440 --> 00:04:35,200 Speaker 1: get to sixteen PPR points per game. When you look 90 00:04:35,240 --> 00:04:38,480 Speaker 1: at the Elite Producer category, those numbers go from eleven 91 00:04:38,520 --> 00:04:41,440 Speaker 1: percent to twenty one percent, and then twenty two percent to. 92 00:04:41,440 --> 00:04:42,320 Speaker 2: Thirty two percent. 93 00:04:42,920 --> 00:04:44,839 Speaker 1: What might be more important here is the rate of 94 00:04:44,839 --> 00:04:47,880 Speaker 1: getting to fourteen or more PPR points per game that's 95 00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:51,080 Speaker 1: in the best two seasons average. It's one third of 96 00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:54,520 Speaker 1: the players in the weekly Starter category, one third of 97 00:04:54,560 --> 00:04:57,320 Speaker 1: them average fourteen or more PPR points per game, and 98 00:04:57,400 --> 00:05:01,200 Speaker 1: two of their three seasons that number sixty three percent. 99 00:05:01,440 --> 00:05:06,160 Speaker 1: When looking at Elite Producers. Now, these are relatively arbitrary 100 00:05:06,200 --> 00:05:10,200 Speaker 1: cutoffs that just helped me explain the model. But Henderson's 101 00:05:10,240 --> 00:05:13,680 Speaker 1: borderline between those two categories, and he fits more cleanly 102 00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 1: in the weekly Starter category. That's where we see far 103 00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:20,800 Speaker 1: fewer RB twos historically. I also look at his year 104 00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:23,520 Speaker 1: one and I ask myself, where are things going from here? 105 00:05:23,560 --> 00:05:25,960 Speaker 1: At least in the short term. I've let it be 106 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:29,040 Speaker 1: known that I think Ramandre Stevenson had a fantastic end 107 00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:31,600 Speaker 1: of the season, but he wasn't very good up until 108 00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 1: December this past year. Considering what the Patriots just did though, 109 00:05:35,440 --> 00:05:37,680 Speaker 1: and getting to the super Bowl, and considering the type 110 00:05:37,720 --> 00:05:40,599 Speaker 1: of snap splits that we saw throughout the playoffs, I 111 00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:43,880 Speaker 1: don't think Stevenson's going anywhere in twenty twenty six. The 112 00:05:43,880 --> 00:05:47,240 Speaker 1: Patriots potential out for Stevenson from a contract perspective, it 113 00:05:47,279 --> 00:05:49,799 Speaker 1: exists in twenty twenty seven, not twenty twenty six. 114 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:51,560 Speaker 2: And if Stevenson is. 115 00:05:51,520 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 1: There, we may just see a little bit more production, 116 00:05:54,600 --> 00:05:57,720 Speaker 1: a little bit more volume from Trayvon Henderson in twenty twenty. 117 00:05:57,560 --> 00:06:01,039 Speaker 2: Six, not a huge bump, and look. 118 00:06:00,880 --> 00:06:03,760 Speaker 1: Stevenson ended up leading the league this past year and 119 00:06:03,880 --> 00:06:07,960 Speaker 1: rushing yards over expected per rush. That's my general fear here. 120 00:06:08,320 --> 00:06:11,200 Speaker 1: There's no doubt that Trayvon Henderson has a weekly ceiling. 121 00:06:11,440 --> 00:06:14,480 Speaker 1: We saw that this past year. He's very explosive. 122 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:17,040 Speaker 2: But will New England allow for that volume to. 123 00:06:17,000 --> 00:06:20,240 Speaker 1: Exist in twenty twenty six And what happens when the 124 00:06:20,240 --> 00:06:23,480 Speaker 1: Patriots aren't winning, when they aren't facing as easy of 125 00:06:23,520 --> 00:06:27,400 Speaker 1: a schedule, Because we generally see regression hit for teams 126 00:06:27,400 --> 00:06:29,920 Speaker 1: like New England. Now, this has nothing to do with 127 00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:33,120 Speaker 1: him having an overrated season. I think they were worthy 128 00:06:33,320 --> 00:06:36,359 Speaker 1: of representing the AFC in the Super Bowl. It's just 129 00:06:36,440 --> 00:06:38,920 Speaker 1: what we historically see. We see a little bit of 130 00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:41,720 Speaker 1: a drop off with a team like New England, and 131 00:06:41,720 --> 00:06:44,760 Speaker 1: with Henderson not being relied upon back in pass pro 132 00:06:44,839 --> 00:06:47,919 Speaker 1: for them this year, and with Stevenson still there another year, 133 00:06:48,520 --> 00:06:51,120 Speaker 1: I can argue that Trayvon Henderson is much more of 134 00:06:51,120 --> 00:06:54,479 Speaker 1: a sell than he is a bye, especially if you 135 00:06:54,520 --> 00:06:57,719 Speaker 1: need that twenty twenty six production. But like I said, 136 00:06:57,760 --> 00:07:01,360 Speaker 1: I don't think he's necessarily overinflated within running back rankings, 137 00:07:01,400 --> 00:07:03,680 Speaker 1: although I do think James Cook should be ahead of 138 00:07:03,720 --> 00:07:06,800 Speaker 1: Trayvon Henderson. There's just a lot of wide receivers that 139 00:07:06,839 --> 00:07:10,440 Speaker 1: I like more So, if you want a more stable asset, 140 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:13,040 Speaker 1: I think trading away Trayvon Henderson right. 141 00:07:12,920 --> 00:07:14,960 Speaker 2: Now does at least make some sense. 142 00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:19,880 Speaker 1: Let's stay with this theme of year two running backs. 143 00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:20,720 Speaker 1: Let's look at RJ. 144 00:07:20,920 --> 00:07:21,320 Speaker 2: Harvey. 145 00:07:22,160 --> 00:07:25,239 Speaker 1: I'm a few running back spots lower than consensus with RJ. Harvey, 146 00:07:25,560 --> 00:07:28,360 Speaker 1: and there's a few reasons for that. First, let's just 147 00:07:28,360 --> 00:07:30,480 Speaker 1: look at him as a prospect. Now, I didn't mind 148 00:07:30,520 --> 00:07:33,080 Speaker 1: Harvey coming out last year. But you can listen back 149 00:07:33,080 --> 00:07:35,320 Speaker 1: to old shows or I mentioned that there's definitely a 150 00:07:35,320 --> 00:07:37,720 Speaker 1: Harvey ive out there who likes him a lot more 151 00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:40,800 Speaker 1: than I do. He was definitely explosive as a prospect, 152 00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:42,880 Speaker 1: but he was an older prospect, and his metrics in 153 00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:47,040 Speaker 1: the ZAP model they were good, not great. They weren't elite. 154 00:07:47,160 --> 00:07:49,920 Speaker 1: And now today, looking at the year two model, he's 155 00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:52,600 Speaker 1: in the weekly starter bucket. His year two score is 156 00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:55,840 Speaker 1: about ten points lower than Trayvon Henderson's, which does make 157 00:07:55,920 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 1: sense when you compare their current value in the market. 158 00:07:59,040 --> 00:08:00,880 Speaker 1: But there are some things that at the very least 159 00:08:00,960 --> 00:08:03,360 Speaker 1: make RJ. Harvey a little bit more volatile than the 160 00:08:03,400 --> 00:08:07,000 Speaker 1: market might realize. Advanced metrics are not the end all 161 00:08:07,040 --> 00:08:10,200 Speaker 1: at running back. I'll say that forever. They're less predictive 162 00:08:10,400 --> 00:08:13,000 Speaker 1: than what we see a wide receiver. In fact, with 163 00:08:13,160 --> 00:08:15,080 Speaker 1: the year two model, if you look at how a 164 00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:17,520 Speaker 1: player performed in year one and pper points per game, 165 00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:21,360 Speaker 1: it's less predictive than a player's ZAPP score when you're 166 00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:24,200 Speaker 1: looking at year two to year four output. In other words, 167 00:08:24,280 --> 00:08:26,960 Speaker 1: you're better off ignoring year one ppuer points per game 168 00:08:26,960 --> 00:08:29,520 Speaker 1: for running backs and focusing on how they looked coming 169 00:08:29,560 --> 00:08:30,240 Speaker 1: into the league. 170 00:08:31,280 --> 00:08:31,800 Speaker 2: But RJ. 171 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:34,720 Speaker 1: Harvey's advanced numbers were really worrisome last year, or at 172 00:08:34,800 --> 00:08:38,400 Speaker 1: least kind of worrisome. Harvey was third worst among forty 173 00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:41,160 Speaker 1: eight qualified running backs last year and rushing yards over 174 00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:44,439 Speaker 1: expected per attempt, he was thirty second in success rate. 175 00:08:44,640 --> 00:08:48,440 Speaker 1: When in that same offense JK. Dobbins was twelve. He 176 00:08:48,559 --> 00:08:50,319 Speaker 1: was fine as a pass catcher with a ten percent 177 00:08:50,360 --> 00:08:52,520 Speaker 1: target chair. He had a solid one point three to 178 00:08:52,600 --> 00:08:55,280 Speaker 1: six yards per out run rate, and that's where we 179 00:08:55,360 --> 00:08:57,600 Speaker 1: might see some fantasy jews from Harvey in the future. 180 00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:02,080 Speaker 1: But his numbers overall, they weren't spectacular last year. I 181 00:09:02,080 --> 00:09:04,560 Speaker 1: think the touchdown total from last season is doing a 182 00:09:04,559 --> 00:09:07,200 Speaker 1: lot of heavy lifting here. People will point to his 183 00:09:07,240 --> 00:09:10,040 Speaker 1: twelve touchdowns as reason to go in the other direction 184 00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:13,720 Speaker 1: than this recommendation, But actually, we've seen rookie running backs 185 00:09:13,760 --> 00:09:16,760 Speaker 1: bust in the past with double digit touchdowns, or at 186 00:09:16,840 --> 00:09:19,160 Speaker 1: least players who didn't go on to have some studley 187 00:09:19,240 --> 00:09:22,719 Speaker 1: career in recent memory. Philip Lindsay that was won back 188 00:09:22,760 --> 00:09:25,880 Speaker 1: in twenty eighteen. But then there's Antonio Gibson, DeAndre Swift 189 00:09:25,880 --> 00:09:29,200 Speaker 1: who's been good but not excellent. James Robinson, Eddie Lacy, 190 00:09:29,360 --> 00:09:32,800 Speaker 1: Alfred Morris. Those guys certainly weren't bad, but they make 191 00:09:32,880 --> 00:09:34,640 Speaker 1: up like a quarter of the rookie running backs to 192 00:09:34,720 --> 00:09:37,720 Speaker 1: hit ten or more touchdowns since twenty eleven. The year 193 00:09:37,720 --> 00:09:40,600 Speaker 1: two model has what I call journey comparables, where the 194 00:09:40,600 --> 00:09:43,120 Speaker 1: model finds historical comps for players who entered the league 195 00:09:43,120 --> 00:09:45,760 Speaker 1: with a similar Zapp score and then finished year one 196 00:09:46,000 --> 00:09:48,920 Speaker 1: with a similar Year two score. They're players who went 197 00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:53,080 Speaker 1: on a similar journey. They're not stylistic comps, they're simply 198 00:09:53,160 --> 00:09:57,840 Speaker 1: score comps. R J. Harvey's top comparables right now are JK. Dobbins, 199 00:09:57,880 --> 00:10:01,199 Speaker 1: which is kind of funny, Zach Moss and A Abdullah Now, 200 00:10:01,280 --> 00:10:04,280 Speaker 1: Kenneth Walker is pretty close, and David Montgomery. 201 00:10:04,440 --> 00:10:06,040 Speaker 2: He's like sixth or seventh on the list. 202 00:10:07,000 --> 00:10:09,559 Speaker 1: But there are a lot of questionable running backs on 203 00:10:09,600 --> 00:10:12,719 Speaker 1: that journey comp list, and that scares me a little bit. 204 00:10:13,600 --> 00:10:14,959 Speaker 1: I said it on the mail bag a couple of 205 00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:17,800 Speaker 1: weeks ago, but the Broncos probably won't enter twenty twenty 206 00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:20,920 Speaker 1: six with R. J. Harvey, Jalia McLoughlin, and Tyler Bidet 207 00:10:20,920 --> 00:10:24,040 Speaker 1: at running back. Maybe they just re signed JK. Dobbins 208 00:10:24,280 --> 00:10:27,160 Speaker 1: but we saw in twenty twenty five how JK. Dobbins 209 00:10:27,280 --> 00:10:31,360 Speaker 1: very legitimately dug into Harvey's upside. Maybe Harvey in year 210 00:10:31,400 --> 00:10:33,319 Speaker 1: two deserves more looks, and I think he will get 211 00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:36,160 Speaker 1: more looks. But I'm gonna anchor to the things that 212 00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:38,880 Speaker 1: I know are predictive, and that's a solid ZAP score 213 00:10:38,960 --> 00:10:41,800 Speaker 1: and a profile that's not being boosted by touchdown production. 214 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:44,959 Speaker 1: It's not like Sean Payton's a coach who loves Belkow 215 00:10:45,040 --> 00:10:48,520 Speaker 1: running backs anyway. So to me, I don't mind Harvey. 216 00:10:48,920 --> 00:10:51,120 Speaker 1: He may even be a redraft target for me this year, 217 00:10:51,760 --> 00:10:56,600 Speaker 1: but I do question his cost in Dynasty right now. Now, 218 00:10:56,679 --> 00:10:59,080 Speaker 1: here's a spoiler alert for today's list. I have a 219 00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:02,040 Speaker 1: lot of year time two players. It's just what the 220 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:05,000 Speaker 1: market is giving me right now. I don't hate these guys. 221 00:11:05,000 --> 00:11:06,839 Speaker 1: I don't hate them as players, but if I think 222 00:11:06,840 --> 00:11:09,640 Speaker 1: there's a little inflation going on, I'm not gonna hold back, 223 00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:11,599 Speaker 1: even if it might bite me at the end of 224 00:11:11,640 --> 00:11:14,200 Speaker 1: the day. I at least want to share the logic. 225 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:17,680 Speaker 1: But here's the only guy on today's list who's not 226 00:11:17,760 --> 00:11:22,160 Speaker 1: a year two player, Michael Wilson. Right now on keep 227 00:11:22,200 --> 00:11:25,120 Speaker 1: Trade Cut Michael Wilson's listed right below Jordan Nanison and 228 00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:28,160 Speaker 1: Jalen Waddle and right above Jaden Higgins and Ricky Pearson. 229 00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:29,920 Speaker 1: And as much as I want to kind of be 230 00:11:29,960 --> 00:11:32,400 Speaker 1: a contrarian and buy in to Wilson, who I don't 231 00:11:32,400 --> 00:11:35,560 Speaker 1: think is a bad player, I'm definitely more into those 232 00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:39,480 Speaker 1: guys at those prices than Michael Wilson. Wilson averaged twenty 233 00:11:39,520 --> 00:11:41,880 Speaker 1: one point two PPR points per game from Week eleven 234 00:11:41,920 --> 00:11:45,280 Speaker 1: onward last year. The only wide out with more PPR 235 00:11:45,280 --> 00:11:48,600 Speaker 1: points per game was Pookin Akua. Michael Wilson broke out. 236 00:11:48,800 --> 00:11:50,960 Speaker 1: He showed everyone that he can handle a lot of 237 00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:53,880 Speaker 1: looks in his offense. But that was also under some 238 00:11:53,920 --> 00:11:58,560 Speaker 1: pretty specific circumstances Marvin Harrison Junior missing time last year, 239 00:11:58,920 --> 00:12:01,559 Speaker 1: and games where Harrison jar was active and played more 240 00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:05,040 Speaker 1: than fifty percent of Arizona snaps. Michael Wilson averaged five 241 00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:07,480 Speaker 1: and a half PPR points per game. If you want 242 00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:09,280 Speaker 1: to filter that further and just look at games where 243 00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:12,319 Speaker 1: Jacoby Bursett was under center, it's seven point five. 244 00:12:12,960 --> 00:12:13,920 Speaker 2: Now, I don't doubt. 245 00:12:13,679 --> 00:12:15,720 Speaker 1: That Wilson's a better player than most of us thought 246 00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:18,559 Speaker 1: entering twenty twenty five, where he went undrafted. 247 00:12:19,440 --> 00:12:21,880 Speaker 2: But this ranking feels very selective. 248 00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:25,480 Speaker 1: It feels like it's filled with recency bias when you 249 00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:28,640 Speaker 1: look at the greater sample. His season last year was good, 250 00:12:28,720 --> 00:12:32,560 Speaker 1: not great. Twenty point four percent target chair, one point 251 00:12:32,600 --> 00:12:34,640 Speaker 1: five to nine yards per route, run rate to target 252 00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:38,280 Speaker 1: on twenty percent of his routes run, thirteen PPR points 253 00:12:38,280 --> 00:12:41,920 Speaker 1: per game. Those numbers are fine, but they're not inspiring. 254 00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:44,800 Speaker 1: And that was on an Arizona team, by the way, 255 00:12:44,960 --> 00:12:47,480 Speaker 1: that ran first in the NFL and passed right over expected. 256 00:12:47,920 --> 00:12:50,520 Speaker 1: They had more pass attempts at six forty nine than 257 00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:54,080 Speaker 1: any other team. Chances are that passing volume is not 258 00:12:54,200 --> 00:12:55,199 Speaker 1: going to stick. 259 00:12:55,000 --> 00:12:55,760 Speaker 2: Year over year. 260 00:12:56,840 --> 00:12:58,920 Speaker 1: If Wilson had more of a backbone before doing what 261 00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:01,440 Speaker 1: he did during that stretch and two twenty five, I'd 262 00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:03,959 Speaker 1: be more willing to buy into it. But with him 263 00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:06,920 Speaker 1: being ranked around some really good young wide receivers, and 264 00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:09,640 Speaker 1: with so much up in the air situationally in Arizona 265 00:13:09,720 --> 00:13:12,480 Speaker 1: right now, I'd be willing to part ways with Michael 266 00:13:12,480 --> 00:13:18,280 Speaker 1: Wilson at that listed price. Tyler Warren may seem like 267 00:13:18,320 --> 00:13:21,000 Speaker 1: a crazy sell candidate because he objectively just had a 268 00:13:21,000 --> 00:13:24,280 Speaker 1: pretty good rookie season. This is just a price thing, though, 269 00:13:24,760 --> 00:13:27,480 Speaker 1: and a tight end ranking thing. Most of my tight 270 00:13:27,600 --> 00:13:30,160 Speaker 1: end ranks, they're pretty aligned with the market at the top. 271 00:13:30,760 --> 00:13:33,400 Speaker 1: But I like Colston Loveland straight up more than Tyler 272 00:13:33,440 --> 00:13:36,120 Speaker 1: Warren moving forward, and the market over and keep trade 273 00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:36,599 Speaker 1: cut does not. 274 00:13:37,520 --> 00:13:38,160 Speaker 2: Let's just do a. 275 00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:41,520 Speaker 1: Quick comparison of the two players. Warren did hit eleven 276 00:13:41,520 --> 00:13:43,920 Speaker 1: point three Ppier points per game in relevant games last 277 00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:47,640 Speaker 1: year versus Loveland's nine point three, but he also finished 278 00:13:47,640 --> 00:13:51,000 Speaker 1: with an eighty three percent route share Loveland was at 279 00:13:51,040 --> 00:13:56,200 Speaker 1: sixty five percent. Completely ignoring the playoffs, where Loveland went nuts. 280 00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:59,360 Speaker 1: Loveland hit a seventy percent route share in just five 281 00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:03,760 Speaker 1: games last year. In those contests, he averaged seventeen point 282 00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:07,240 Speaker 1: eight Pper points per game. Tyler Warren was added above 283 00:14:07,280 --> 00:14:09,920 Speaker 1: a seventy percent routes share mark in every single game 284 00:14:10,000 --> 00:14:13,400 Speaker 1: last year, and that's a talent signal for sure, which 285 00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:15,840 Speaker 1: is why I think Warren deserves to be ranked relatively 286 00:14:15,880 --> 00:14:20,640 Speaker 1: high in Dynasty. But quite literally, every single efficiency metric 287 00:14:20,760 --> 00:14:24,640 Speaker 1: favors Colston Loveland. Yards per route run one point eight 288 00:14:24,760 --> 00:14:27,960 Speaker 1: six Warren one point sixty three. Loveland show that he 289 00:14:27,960 --> 00:14:29,840 Speaker 1: can get down the field and not just be an 290 00:14:29,880 --> 00:14:30,960 Speaker 1: easy outlet target. 291 00:14:31,240 --> 00:14:33,800 Speaker 2: His a dot was four yards higher. 292 00:14:34,520 --> 00:14:36,760 Speaker 1: Loveland had just as many red zone touchdowns on two 293 00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:39,280 Speaker 1: thirds of the amount of red zone targets. Warren got 294 00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:41,000 Speaker 1: him on volume, but that was largely due to the 295 00:14:41,000 --> 00:14:43,640 Speaker 1: fact that the Bears didn't unleach Loveland until later in 296 00:14:43,680 --> 00:14:46,240 Speaker 1: the season. So my point and bring all this up 297 00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:49,040 Speaker 1: is that on keep Trade Cut, Warren is listed ahead 298 00:14:49,080 --> 00:14:53,000 Speaker 1: of Colston Loveland. I'm one hundred percent on Team Loveland, 299 00:14:53,320 --> 00:14:55,680 Speaker 1: and since that's the case, if I can get Loveland 300 00:14:55,720 --> 00:14:57,920 Speaker 1: plus or even a swap, even if I don't love 301 00:14:57,960 --> 00:15:00,760 Speaker 1: swapping players like that, I'm doing that all day long 302 00:15:00,760 --> 00:15:04,320 Speaker 1: at this point. Don't forget too, Loveland's two years younger 303 00:15:04,360 --> 00:15:07,640 Speaker 1: than Tyler Warren. It's honestly kind of shocking to me 304 00:15:07,720 --> 00:15:09,920 Speaker 1: that Warren is ranked ahead of Colson Loveland. Right now, 305 00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:12,680 Speaker 1: I think the discussion should be Warren versus Harold Fan 306 00:15:12,760 --> 00:15:18,200 Speaker 1: and not Warren versus Loveland. Next Sun unless is Travis Hunter. 307 00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:21,320 Speaker 1: This one's a little bit more feel based than anything else. 308 00:15:21,800 --> 00:15:24,200 Speaker 1: But I'm also looking at where I have Hunter versus 309 00:15:24,240 --> 00:15:26,520 Speaker 1: where the market does, and I'm like six or seven 310 00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:29,000 Speaker 1: wide receiver spots lower than what keep trade Cut is 311 00:15:29,040 --> 00:15:32,360 Speaker 1: telling me. The ZA model didn't like Hunter quite as 312 00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:34,640 Speaker 1: much as other analysts did, though I did think he 313 00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:36,960 Speaker 1: was a top tier wide receiver in last year's draft. 314 00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:39,480 Speaker 1: That was larger driven by draft capital and the fact 315 00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:41,840 Speaker 1: that he was just such an insanely difficult wide receiver 316 00:15:41,920 --> 00:15:45,520 Speaker 1: to evaluate for so many reasons. I genuinely think that 317 00:15:45,560 --> 00:15:47,880 Speaker 1: he was really about to catch on for Jacksonville before 318 00:15:47,880 --> 00:15:50,720 Speaker 1: his injury this past season, which is really unfortunate, but 319 00:15:50,800 --> 00:15:53,240 Speaker 1: that led to the Jags not only using Parker Washington 320 00:15:53,280 --> 00:15:55,120 Speaker 1: more out of the slot, who ended up being a 321 00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:58,040 Speaker 1: really good player, but they traded for Jacobe Myers too, 322 00:15:58,480 --> 00:16:00,880 Speaker 1: and Myers he got his deal with jack Xonville through 323 00:16:00,920 --> 00:16:03,280 Speaker 1: at least twenty twenty seven the way that deal is structured. 324 00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:05,920 Speaker 1: So you have Jacobe Myers, who we know is a 325 00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:08,960 Speaker 1: great route runner and he can command decent target shaars. 326 00:16:09,280 --> 00:16:12,360 Speaker 1: You have Parker Washington, who really established himself as a 327 00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:15,680 Speaker 1: decent slot player, really good slot player. And there's Brian 328 00:16:15,760 --> 00:16:18,560 Speaker 1: Thomas who had a disappointing season but he's still a 329 00:16:18,640 --> 00:16:21,720 Speaker 1: legit perimeter thread on his rookie deal. You can bin 330 00:16:21,760 --> 00:16:24,200 Speaker 1: in all of that with the recent reports from ESPN 331 00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:27,600 Speaker 1: that say that Travis Hunter could play cornerback with special 332 00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:32,280 Speaker 1: offensive packages. That's a pretty bad sign when a player 333 00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:34,600 Speaker 1: like Jalen Waddle, who we know has at least wide 334 00:16:34,600 --> 00:16:37,680 Speaker 1: receiver two potential in him, when he's ranked below Hunter 335 00:16:37,920 --> 00:16:40,600 Speaker 1: as a twenty seven year old wide receiver, I'd rather 336 00:16:40,640 --> 00:16:43,600 Speaker 1: go in that direction. Or Jordan Addison. He's twenty four 337 00:16:43,680 --> 00:16:46,480 Speaker 1: years old and he's been mostly Fantasy relevant every year 338 00:16:46,520 --> 00:16:49,440 Speaker 1: that he's been in the league. He's below Hunter on 339 00:16:49,560 --> 00:16:52,960 Speaker 1: Keep Trade Cut right now, and Travis Hunter's year two 340 00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:57,280 Speaker 1: comps they're not pretty you guys, Quentin Johnston, Henry Ruggs, Alshon, 341 00:16:57,400 --> 00:17:01,240 Speaker 1: Jeffrey Tavon, Austin, Jalen Reger. It's a whole lot of 342 00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:04,560 Speaker 1: first round bus and semi bus. Al Sean's only on 343 00:17:04,560 --> 00:17:06,879 Speaker 1: that list because the ZAP model really liked him when 344 00:17:06,880 --> 00:17:09,320 Speaker 1: he came out. So I'd be fine with taking the 345 00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:11,840 Speaker 1: l with Travis Hunter and trying to get some legitimate, 346 00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:16,840 Speaker 1: usable pieces for him right now. The final player today, 347 00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:20,760 Speaker 1: it's another year two guy, Matthew Golden. Golden had a 348 00:17:20,760 --> 00:17:23,639 Speaker 1: ton of analytical red flags entering the league, and he 349 00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:26,399 Speaker 1: didn't walk away from his rookie season answering many of 350 00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:28,359 Speaker 1: the questions that we had about him. He had a 351 00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:31,280 Speaker 1: sub twelve percent target chair, his yards PERU run rate 352 00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:33,520 Speaker 1: was a pretty mediocre one point three to five, and 353 00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:35,880 Speaker 1: he saw target on just sixteen and a half percent 354 00:17:35,920 --> 00:17:38,920 Speaker 1: of his routes run. Let's look at all players in 355 00:17:38,960 --> 00:17:41,479 Speaker 1: the year two model database that goes back to twenty eleven, 356 00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:44,399 Speaker 1: all wideouts who ran at least one hundred routes as 357 00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:46,600 Speaker 1: a rookie and then had below a one point five 358 00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:49,159 Speaker 1: yards per OU run rate and below an eighteen percent 359 00:17:49,240 --> 00:17:51,840 Speaker 1: targets per rou run rate. For what it's worth, both 360 00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:53,640 Speaker 1: of those numbers are a good bit higher than where 361 00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:56,760 Speaker 1: Matthew Golden was at this past year. That results in 362 00:17:56,880 --> 00:18:00,360 Speaker 1: ninety five wide receivers in the model's database. Of those 363 00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:03,320 Speaker 1: ninety five, just ten players were able to give us 364 00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:05,360 Speaker 1: a season of fourteen or more pper points per game 365 00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:08,760 Speaker 1: in either year two, year three, or year four. And 366 00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:13,879 Speaker 1: if you're curious, here are those players. DeAndre Hopkins, DeVante Adams, 367 00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:18,000 Speaker 1: Sterling Shepard, Tyler Boyd, will Fuller, Cortland Sutton, DJ Shark, 368 00:18:18,280 --> 00:18:22,160 Speaker 1: Michael Pittman, Nico Collins, and George Pickens. When you hear 369 00:18:22,200 --> 00:18:24,240 Speaker 1: that list, and you look at that list. What stands 370 00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:26,160 Speaker 1: out to me is that many of the players who 371 00:18:26,160 --> 00:18:29,000 Speaker 1: sort of buck this trend are ones who profiled more 372 00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:32,320 Speaker 1: as like a true Alpha X receiver. The guys who 373 00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:36,119 Speaker 1: didn't profile that way, they weren't necessarily elite throughout their career. 374 00:18:36,600 --> 00:18:38,879 Speaker 1: They were solid, like a guy like Tyler Boyd. He 375 00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:42,600 Speaker 1: had a solid career, but it's not like DeAndre Hopkins. 376 00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:46,320 Speaker 1: And then there's this situation itself. Green Bay with Matt 377 00:18:46,359 --> 00:18:48,920 Speaker 1: Lafleur is not the place that we generally feel warm 378 00:18:48,960 --> 00:18:52,399 Speaker 1: and fuzzy about wide receivers. Yes, there's a chance that 379 00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:54,560 Speaker 1: we see a different type of wide receiver room in 380 00:18:54,600 --> 00:18:57,959 Speaker 1: twenty twenty six, but we've seen the Packers rotate their 381 00:18:58,000 --> 00:19:00,720 Speaker 1: wideouts quite a bit over the last full of years 382 00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:05,240 Speaker 1: and that's resulted in worset production. Lafloor got to Green 383 00:19:05,240 --> 00:19:08,760 Speaker 1: Bay in twenty nineteen. From twenty nineteen through twenty twenty five, 384 00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:11,480 Speaker 1: the Packers have had four wide receiver seasons where the 385 00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:13,680 Speaker 1: wide out finishes a top twenty four player at the 386 00:19:13,720 --> 00:19:17,280 Speaker 1: position and PPR points per game during relevant weeks. So 387 00:19:17,359 --> 00:19:21,120 Speaker 1: we're removing the final week of the season. DeVante Adams 388 00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:24,000 Speaker 1: has three of those four seasons. The other one's Christian 389 00:19:24,040 --> 00:19:27,120 Speaker 1: Watson actually from twenty twenty five. He finishes the wide 390 00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:30,480 Speaker 1: receiver twenty with thirteen point two PPR points per game, 391 00:19:31,840 --> 00:19:34,800 Speaker 1: and Golden's year two journey comparables, they don't make me 392 00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:37,800 Speaker 1: feel a whole lot better about this. We're looking at 393 00:19:37,840 --> 00:19:41,080 Speaker 1: Justin Hunter, kJ Hamler, ad Ni Mitchell, and Zay Jones. 394 00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:45,360 Speaker 1: Now next in that list is DeVante Adams, but Adams 395 00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:47,399 Speaker 1: is also known as a huge outlier with how his 396 00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:49,440 Speaker 1: career started and what he turned into. 397 00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:52,760 Speaker 2: That is not something I want to bank on. So 398 00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:55,840 Speaker 2: that's why to me, Matthew Golden right now is kind 399 00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:58,400 Speaker 2: of a decent cell candidate. So that's it. 400 00:19:58,480 --> 00:20:00,960 Speaker 1: A ton of Year two players, and then Michael Wilson. 401 00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:04,240 Speaker 1: Maybe I'm being too bold today, or maybe the market 402 00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:07,040 Speaker 1: really is just that optimistic with some of these players 403 00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:10,840 Speaker 1: becoming big in fantasy football. I don't necessarily dislike some 404 00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:13,880 Speaker 1: of the players on this list, especially someone like Trayvon Henderson. 405 00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:18,199 Speaker 1: I'm just playing this based on the market, and I 406 00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:20,840 Speaker 1: have other potential sell candidates too. You can check out 407 00:20:20,880 --> 00:20:22,399 Speaker 1: where I have players rank by heading to the Late 408 00:20:22,480 --> 00:20:27,600 Speaker 1: Round Fantasy Football Patreon all found on lateround dot com. 409 00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:29,240 Speaker 1: That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of 410 00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:31,160 Speaker 1: you for listening. If you get subscribe to the Late 411 00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:34,080 Speaker 1: Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by shooting 412 00:20:34,119 --> 00:20:36,480 Speaker 1: for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and 413 00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:38,719 Speaker 1: to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at 414 00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:39,560 Speaker 1: Late Round QB. 415 00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:41,560 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening everyone. 416 00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:44,159 Speaker 1: Make sure you're tuning into the Late Round Fantasy Football 417 00:20:44,200 --> 00:20:46,920 Speaker 1: show on Wednesday over on YouTube. That's at noon Eastern, 418 00:20:47,040 --> 00:20:48,879 Speaker 1: but if you miss it, I'll drop it in this 419 00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:51,720 Speaker 1: podcast feed on Thursday morning. And then this is a 420 00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:54,399 Speaker 1: Perspective's week as well, so on Friday, I've got a 421 00:20:54,440 --> 00:20:56,879 Speaker 1: brand new episode of Late Round Perspectives for you. 422 00:20:57,400 --> 00:20:58,200 Speaker 2: I'll talk to you then