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Speaker 1: The volume. It's Sports Gambling with money Line Monaco, presented

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Speaker 1: Welcome into another episode of Sports Gambling with money Line Monico.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Alex Monico. It's Week fifteen. We are rocking,

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Speaker 1: we are rolling. I hope you're enjoying elf home alone,

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Speaker 1: a little Tim Allen as Santa Claus, whatever holiday spirit

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Speaker 1: you like to get into. We hope you are just

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Speaker 1: a weekend some change out from Christmas. The slate this

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Speaker 1: weekend is tasty. The rest of the month of football

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Speaker 1: in the regular season is riveting. So many storylines, so

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Speaker 1: much value still to fire on as we buckle up

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Speaker 1: here for the last run of the NFL campaign again.

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Speaker 1: You can find me on all social media under money

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Speaker 1: Line Monaco, Alex Monico on Twitter. We are on Action

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Speaker 1: Network only too. Using weeks out of fourteen. Got smoked

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Speaker 1: last weekend. I didn't love my picks. No excuses, just

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Speaker 1: an off week. Can't take a bye week in this game,

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Speaker 1: so we keep pressing on. But I got five picks

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Speaker 1: against the spread. I'm enjoying them. I feel very good

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Speaker 1: about at least a three and two outing Again, you

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Speaker 1: have seven divisional seven divisional dances. Last weekend it was difficult,

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Speaker 1: you know. Sometimes you take dogs at home, sometimes you

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Speaker 1: take favorites on the road and you just you miss

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Speaker 1: and you miss again. But managing your units, playing the

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Speaker 1: long game, no week, no play should break you. Let's

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Speaker 1: keep it pushing. Don't forget to subscribe rate review. If

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Speaker 1: you're enjoying yourself, check out all Things Volume Sports. It's

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Speaker 1: only the world Cup Final France Argentina dish. By the way,

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Speaker 1: I'm up over fifteen units on the World Cup all

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Speaker 1: picks tracks, So I just eight like a steak and

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Speaker 1: potatoes Rockos Steakhouse, New York City dinner. That's how much

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Speaker 1: we ate on the World Cup pun A ton of research,

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Speaker 1: went into a ton of worked, did a bunch of

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Speaker 1: Amazon amp live. So if you ate with me, appreciate

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Speaker 1: the support. All right, back to American football ego. First

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Speaker 1: pick on the Pop and it's the marquee matchup of

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Speaker 1: the weekend. Joey Burr vers t B twelve and my

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Speaker 1: guy Tommy Brady is spiraling. He's spiraling. We faded him

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Speaker 1: last week, same exact number here, Niners minus three and

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Speaker 1: a half, except they were at home. Now we got

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Speaker 1: the Bengals three and a half on the road against

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Speaker 1: this Bucks team. Let's just lay the storyline out for you.

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Speaker 1: This Bengals team is the number one cover in the

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Speaker 1: NFL this year. It's not Atlanta out the gate. There's

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Speaker 1: no smoking mirrors anymore. At the top against the spread

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Speaker 1: dog in this NFL is our colleague at Volume Sports.

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Speaker 1: Joe Burrow and his Cincinnati Bengals ten in three covering. Furthermore,

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Speaker 1: they're running eighteen and three against the spread run in

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Speaker 1: their last that's the best run in the history of

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Speaker 1: twenty one games against the spread in the NFL. People,

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Speaker 1: let me repeat myself, tent to one games, eight teams,

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Speaker 1: eight beam. They're on their longest winning streak here, five

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Speaker 1: straight since when they started the campaign. Eight straight ws. Alright,

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Speaker 1: this team is not beating cupcakes. You're the first team

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Speaker 1: to beat Patrick Mahomes, Sir Patrick, three times in his career.

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Speaker 1: You beat the Titans on the road, you beat the

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Speaker 1: Steelers at their place, never easy, and you handle twenty three.

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Speaker 1: Then last week against Watson and this Browns team with

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Speaker 1: no problem at all, no ease, all ease, no trials

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Speaker 1: and trips, and you and you have and you have

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Speaker 1: for me an incredibly, incredibly whoa whoa morale Tampa Bay

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Speaker 1: Bucks team. And again you've heard me criss cross on

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Speaker 1: them a few times. I've been on him, I've been

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Speaker 1: off him, I've been on him, I've been off I'm

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Speaker 1: off them. This week. They're they're just outmatched and going

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Speaker 1: against the team was so much going for them. I mean,

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Speaker 1: the Bucks couldn't have less going for them. Coming up

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Speaker 1: their second outing of less than ten points. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you get you get smoked dirty five seven against a

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Speaker 1: rookie undrafted Mr Irrelevant Tom Brady is seven and oh

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Speaker 1: all time against rookie quarterbacks in their first start seven

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Speaker 1: and up. He's now seven and one thanks to brock

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Speaker 1: per D. Looking at this Bucks team, I mean, we

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Speaker 1: have the worst rushing offense in the league going against

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Speaker 1: the eleventh best rush D show not terrible but serviceable.

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Speaker 1: They certainly held Chubb at Bay last week. Statistically, you

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Speaker 1: gotta Bengals d that in past defense is the same

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Speaker 1: as the Bills, and then the Bills are top ten

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Speaker 1: in almost every defensive statistical category. You're putting up top

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Speaker 1: seven points if you're the Bengals in the league. Twenty

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Speaker 1: five point eight six point one yards per play over

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Speaker 1: the last three weeks. That's top five in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: And this Bengals team I mentioned the eighteen and three

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Speaker 1: A large part of that is them going on the

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Speaker 1: road and not being scared of anybody of nobody. They're

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Speaker 1: ten and two eight t s in their last twelve

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Speaker 1: road games. This Bucks team is twenty eight in the

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Speaker 1: league in offensive production. Seven team points per game. They're

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Speaker 1: not closing in the red zone point first in red

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Speaker 1: zone efficiency, They're only they're only scoring Toutstowns Cutstowns in

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Speaker 1: the red zone on the bottom half, bottom three of

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Speaker 1: the league production wise, Brady's throwing the ball fifty times

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Speaker 1: a game. I'm losing my voice over here. The lemon

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Speaker 1: time he's thrown for attempts, He's three and eight when

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Speaker 1: he does it. This is the problem with the Bucks.

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Speaker 1: They can't run the football. Brady's entire career, he has

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Speaker 1: been able to run the football. He's been able to

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Speaker 1: get the ball out of his hands fast. It's not

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Speaker 1: happening on this on this team, it's certainly not happening

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Speaker 1: right now. So again, don't love the number three and

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Speaker 1: a half. Who does? But since he and they got

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Speaker 1: that magic number, mentioned it to you. The number is

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Speaker 1: twenty four points. But particularly this season, when they score

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Speaker 1: more than twenty there eight no and average and some change.

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Speaker 1: They're perfectly capable against this Bucks d that yes, is

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Speaker 1: top five, but showed you given up thirty five last

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Speaker 1: week to the Niners. They're susceptible to some bad performances.

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Speaker 1: And when you can't keep the offense on the field,

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Speaker 1: and you just keep sending your defense out and sending

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Speaker 1: your defense out, and the opposing offense does you get

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Speaker 1: off the field, You're you're in no man's land a

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Speaker 1: long sixty minutes. Jerry, So, again, a team that's seven

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Speaker 1: one in their last eight weeks, they should be able

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Speaker 1: to cover three. And now again Brady blown out Carson

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Speaker 1: on the sideline throwing any kind of tablet. They could

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Speaker 1: come in buttoned up. But you know, since the Germany

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Speaker 1: w against Seattle, they have not looked good at all,

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Speaker 1: And I thought that was a turn the corner moment

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Speaker 1: for them. They can't run the football. If you can't

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Speaker 1: run the football in December when it's cold, and you

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Speaker 1: have a forty five year old quarterback, even if he's

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Speaker 1: the greatest of all time, Collins talked about it, he's

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Speaker 1: gonna appear washed, and he isn't because if you put

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Speaker 1: him on the Niners, they're a ten win team right now.

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Speaker 1: So I'm not buying that he's washed. I just think

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Speaker 1: they're in a rough spot here. You gotta go Niners

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Speaker 1: Bangals back to back. I mean, the Bengals just ball

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Speaker 1: controlled and beat this Browns team, who I'm fading. Later

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Speaker 1: in the show again. The Browns are terrible, Watson is unwatchable,

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Speaker 1: and I feel great about Bengals minus three and a half.

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Speaker 1: First pick of the campaign, Week fifteen, all right, pick two.

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Speaker 1: I'm staying local, baby New York kid now, and this

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Speaker 1: New York Jets team in a pick um game, actually

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Speaker 1: plus one will take the plus one need at seven

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Speaker 1: and six going against the six and seven scorching red

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Speaker 1: hot Restore the Royal Lions and j G sixteen. I

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Speaker 1: have to take the Jets here. I have to. And

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Speaker 1: the storyline is simple. You have a struggling in the

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Speaker 1: last month Jets team. You can otherwise state it defensively, No,

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Speaker 1: they're not struggling. They're never struggling on defense. They go

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Speaker 1: through a quarterback renaissance to some degree. They don't even

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Speaker 1: shoot up Wilson after the three point outing in the

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Speaker 1: poor press conference. First, the Patriots, they dropped two two

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Speaker 1: straight games, and just so you know, they haven't had

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Speaker 1: they haven't had a two game losing street this season.

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Speaker 1: The Jets, your New York Jets, are otherwise incredibly consistent.

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Speaker 1: After a loss four and one on the season four

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Speaker 1: and one previous two years, this Jets team is five

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Speaker 1: and twenty after a loss. Bert Sala not only keeping

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Speaker 1: the cvs for seats, is changing the company culture in

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Speaker 1: the complete Gastanza opposite office space way here, I mean

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Speaker 1: the opposite of Bill Lundberg. You gotta love it. And

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Speaker 1: looking at this Lions team, all right, you're five and

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Speaker 1: one in your last six mazzle have. But let's remind

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Speaker 1: ourselves who this Lions team is beat. All right, a

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Speaker 1: spiraling Packers team. You stole a Bears when you should

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Speaker 1: add you beat the Giants who haven't haven't won a

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Speaker 1: game of football, and over a month you beat the Jags,

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Speaker 1: who show up three times a year. And yes, you

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Speaker 1: had an impressive win against the Vikings, who are getting

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Speaker 1: out gained in yardage and of the biggest ten way

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Speaker 1: to hoax I've ever Potensil Town seen. So yes, your

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Speaker 1: neighborhood Lions are playing great, but they're not beating who

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Speaker 1: the Bengals have been beating. They're not beating any of

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Speaker 1: those teams as top ten defenses. They gotta go. And

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Speaker 1: a storm is coming. And I'm not just talking Salas

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Speaker 1: defense this Sunday. A storm has come and it's this

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Speaker 1: Jets defense. In addition to the New York City weather,

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Speaker 1: and might I remind you one of my favorite narratives

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Speaker 1: in all of sports, a Southern California kid or a

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Speaker 1: California kid. Lump it all together. It's all the same.

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Speaker 1: Going into the Northeast. An indoor cat in an outdoor scenario, freezing.

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Speaker 1: Not comfortable getting smacked in the mouth by a team

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Speaker 1: with the fifth most sex in the league, This New

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Speaker 1: York Jets front seven, with this sixth ranked defense eighteen

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Speaker 1: point seven per with the fourth ranked passing defense given

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Speaker 1: up under one nine. You saw what the Jets did

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Speaker 1: to Josh and they've danced with him twice. He's barely

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Speaker 1: thrown over two d yards against the Jets once. Jared

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Speaker 1: Goff has been indoors with a heater on knitting relaxed,

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Speaker 1: Larry David lamping because this this Lion's offensive line is superb.

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Speaker 1: Now you gotta go against Quentin Williams day to day,

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Speaker 1: but should be shooting up and this menacing New York

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Speaker 1: Jets front seven. And I'm telling you, I'm telling you,

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Speaker 1: I'm telling you this is a pick um game. Mike

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Speaker 1: White knocked with his ribs. They got Zack Wilson. Now

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Speaker 1: shooted up as the backup. They need this game. This

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Speaker 1: is not three or four weeks ago anymore. From Solos camp.

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Speaker 1: They need to win this game to get in the playoffs. Now.

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Speaker 1: The Lions need this win too, they do. Just go

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Speaker 1: back and look at what the Patriots in Bill Belichick

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Speaker 1: did did Jared Goff And yes, that team was won

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Speaker 1: in six to start the year, so they caught him

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Speaker 1: when they were bad. Now the Jets are catching them

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Speaker 1: when they're hot. But you can't overstate enough golf. It

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Speaker 1: was fifty completion percentage against the Patriots. Didn't throw a

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Speaker 1: touchdown through a pick, and they didn't score a basket.

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Speaker 1: Sit under the table at your local frat party Detroit,

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Speaker 1: you didn't hit a cup at the BP table. Sit

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Speaker 1: under the fold down, you didn't hit a cup. And

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Speaker 1: that's how I see this game. If the Jets, who

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Speaker 1: haven't been able to run the ball, got a little

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Speaker 1: bit of a bright spot last week on a complete

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Speaker 1: plug and play, but otherwise have not been on the ball,

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Speaker 1: if they can stay in it with their defense, and

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Speaker 1: again they backed or covered on a safety in a

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Speaker 1: sick field goal to stay in that game and lose

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Speaker 1: by eight against the Bills, they stay in games if

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Speaker 1: they can find a way to just do what they

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Speaker 1: do on D, which is make Jared Goff run the football.

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Speaker 1: And this Jets team you can run them, but they're

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Speaker 1: still thirteenth best. You can't run down their gullet. Williams

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Speaker 1: and Swift are capable. I think this Jets front seven

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Speaker 1: is more than capable to me, Might I remind you

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Speaker 1: they have not faced the top ten defense on this

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Speaker 1: win stream, not one, never, not once. Swan's team is

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Speaker 1: bottom two in defense. Stop forgetting this defense didn't fire

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Speaker 1: their dB coach a cup of coffee Ago, I mean honestly, yes,

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Speaker 1: last six games holding opponents to twenty first seven, you

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Speaker 1: gave up thirty two. I don't want to hear it.

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Speaker 1: Still a bad defense with players Akuda Hutchinson. Yes, players

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Speaker 1: not a true New York Jets collection. All back to

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Speaker 1: better D at home here and to pick them Jets

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265
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Speaker 1: another pick them game, another going back into the lions

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Speaker 1: Den understudy versus mentor coordinator versus head coach decade plus.

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Speaker 1: These men were married at the hip. Josh McDaniels hosting

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Speaker 1: his former boss, the one and Only Darth Vader, Bill Belichick,

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Speaker 1: who I faded Monday night. We caught a super super

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Speaker 1: Scotty Van bad beat there again. That game is completely different.

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Speaker 1: If Kyler Murray plays, you can't even call it a

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Speaker 1: true loss in the sports betting world. But it was

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Speaker 1: a loss this Raiders team. Though we love it, You

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Speaker 1: hear it enough in the betting world. You hear it

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Speaker 1: enough in sports media. A team gets embarrassed, whether and

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Speaker 1: Colin talks about it a lot, whether they get blown out,

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Speaker 1: or they get up thirteen points with four to go

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Speaker 1: on national TV on Thursday night and lose that way,

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Speaker 1: it doesn't matter. These are human beings that have been

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Speaker 1: insulted at the highest level by a guy that was

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Speaker 1: picked off on waivers. All right, Progressive Insurance wasn't even

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Speaker 1: going to pick up his option. Baker Mayfield was lower

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Speaker 1: than low. He comes in, he he comes back against

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Speaker 1: this Raider's team. I mean, unbelievably embarrassing. Unbelievably embarrassing. But

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Speaker 1: I'll tell you one thing, I'm loving the Raiders in

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Speaker 1: this spot. I'm loving a bounce back game. This has

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00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:56,159
Speaker 1: only happened one time in forty years. You blow a

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Speaker 1: thirteen plus before to go for the Raiders in franchise history,

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00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:04,440
Speaker 1: it was an anomaly. And again, they're known for blowing

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Speaker 1: a lot of leads. They're also known for coming back

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Speaker 1: in a lot of games. But neither here nor there.

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Speaker 1: There's still three and one in their last four, and

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Speaker 1: they put up and twenty two and three of those wins.

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Speaker 1: This is a team. Just just to let you know,

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Speaker 1: because I know everyone's gonna talk about the the Belichick

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00:19:20,240 --> 00:19:23,199
Speaker 1: defense in this matchup, but this Raiders offense, all right,

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Speaker 1: They've put up thirty two and twenty three against the

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Speaker 1: Denver d Denver's only allowed over twenty points four times

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Speaker 1: this season. Two of those were against this Raiders club

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Speaker 1: who only has five wins, three of which in the

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Speaker 1: last four Yames. Now, might I remind you objection mirror,

302
00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:43,399
Speaker 1: are not as the Patriots appeared. This team is beating

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00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:48,760
Speaker 1: backup quarterbacks. Stop tripping. You beat Colt McCoy last week.

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Speaker 1: Whoop de doo, Bassil. Who came you beat Sam Ellinger

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Speaker 1: at home when Reich was on the Budweiser hot seat.

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Speaker 1: Whoop de doo, Basil. You beat Jacoby Percy only had

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00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:03,720
Speaker 1: him as your as your quarterback for seven seasons. You

308
00:20:03,760 --> 00:20:06,600
Speaker 1: should have beat him. You'd beat Miss r Whisky, Mr Bisky.

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00:20:09,280 --> 00:20:10,919
Speaker 1: It's a movie Old School didn't come out. No one

310
00:20:10,960 --> 00:20:14,000
Speaker 1: would even know about Mitchell Poulos at this point in

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Speaker 1: his life in football. I'm sorry it's a little harsh.

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00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:20,040
Speaker 1: I like mention. You'd beat Mr Whisky. You beat Zach

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Speaker 1: Wilson twice. Where are the star quarterbacks that the New

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Speaker 1: England Patriots have beaten? Now I'm not calling Derek car

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00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:30,719
Speaker 1: star quarterback, but he's a top fifteen quarterback. You can

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00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:34,840
Speaker 1: make the case. He's top twelve clutch meter, he's top seven.

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00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:38,159
Speaker 1: Go look it up. And mac Jones is continuing to

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00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:43,760
Speaker 1: be mediocre continuing. He's got seven touchdowns and eight interceptions

319
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Speaker 1: this season. It's embarrassing for a first round draft pick

320
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Speaker 1: in his second campaign. This is the Patriots though they

321
00:20:50,160 --> 00:20:52,119
Speaker 1: look oh and McDaniels. They bring in Patricia with his

322
00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:54,359
Speaker 1: number two pencil behind his ear, and they expected defensive

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Speaker 1: guy to run the offense. I said it on Monday,

324
00:20:57,440 --> 00:21:02,680
Speaker 1: Romandre Stevenson is leading this receiving war. It's embarrassing and

325
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Speaker 1: and this is the only team that could get away

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Speaker 1: with it because it's Belichick. He's got an immunity since

327
00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:14,440
Speaker 1: Derek carrs cried their three and one. And you can

328
00:21:14,520 --> 00:21:18,159
Speaker 1: make the case that, yes, Belichick is going to shut

329
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Speaker 1: down everything that we say when we back to Patriots

330
00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:24,000
Speaker 1: what the Raiders do best on offense and make someone

331
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Speaker 1: else beat up. But you know what, the reality is

332
00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:32,520
Speaker 1: that this Raiders team is starting to kick and cook

333
00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:36,600
Speaker 1: and the defense has improved a lot from the first

334
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Speaker 1: eight weeks of the season, and the offense, I mean,

335
00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:44,760
Speaker 1: we're talking about Davonte Needing four yards from scrimmage, which

336
00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:48,600
Speaker 1: is gonna happen on one play for him and Josh

337
00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:53,719
Speaker 1: Jacobs to become the first first duo of Raider's teammates

338
00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:55,840
Speaker 1: to get twelve fifty plus on scrimmage yards and ten

339
00:21:55,920 --> 00:22:03,000
Speaker 1: touchdowns ahead. There not nervous on the offensive side here

340
00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:06,639
Speaker 1: in this matchup. I promise you that, I promise you.

341
00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:10,560
Speaker 1: Cole McCoy moved the ball on this Patriots defense. And

342
00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:14,600
Speaker 1: and this is a balanced Raiders attack. So you shut

343
00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:16,600
Speaker 1: down Josh Jacobs, you still have d A. You shut

344
00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:21,960
Speaker 1: down DA. You still got Josh Jacobs. Patriots again, their

345
00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:25,879
Speaker 1: season has been lost. Win lost, lost, two wins lost,

346
00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:28,840
Speaker 1: three wins, two losses. Win. It's win loss, win loss.

347
00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:31,080
Speaker 1: This is a short week on the road, back to

348
00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:36,320
Speaker 1: back road outings. And I guarantee you that in a

349
00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:39,280
Speaker 1: Raider's pick um here the value is on the Raiders.

350
00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:41,920
Speaker 1: Trust me, they should be minus two and a half.

351
00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:45,960
Speaker 1: They should be. They should have won that game in

352
00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:49,919
Speaker 1: l A. And the Patriots they got away with one

353
00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:54,600
Speaker 1: against the Cardinals again, pick a win for the Patriots.

354
00:22:54,880 --> 00:23:00,080
Speaker 1: Pick a backup quarterback, all right, Mac Jones was for

355
00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:03,840
Speaker 1: thirty five No tugs in a pick, No tugs in

356
00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:09,120
Speaker 1: a pick. We should not be scared of this Patriots offense,

357
00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:14,560
Speaker 1: zero weapons. Take the Raiders in a pride full bounce

358
00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:17,560
Speaker 1: back and the hungrier team that simply needs to win.

359
00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:21,560
Speaker 1: We keep it pushing two picks left. I feel very

360
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:26,600
Speaker 1: good about both of them. We took one of these teams,

361
00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:28,720
Speaker 1: we faded one of these teams. So something's gotta Jack

362
00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:30,639
Speaker 1: Nicholson give on this fourth one, and the Titans have

363
00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:34,720
Speaker 1: creeped up the plus three against the Chargers. I gotta

364
00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:38,680
Speaker 1: do it. I gotta do it. It's disgusting, it's grotesque,

365
00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:43,719
Speaker 1: It is so repulsive. I don't even want to bet

366
00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:45,800
Speaker 1: on it, but I have to do it. And you

367
00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:53,040
Speaker 1: know it. The Chargers getting points, laying points, Checkyle and Hide,

368
00:23:53,840 --> 00:24:00,720
Speaker 1: Titans giving points, getting points, Hide and Jekyl. The Titans.

369
00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:05,880
Speaker 1: They're off their first three game losing streak since two

370
00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:08,879
Speaker 1: thousand eighteen. This is a prideful bunch. This is a

371
00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:10,960
Speaker 1: team that hasn't lost four in a row since two

372
00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:14,000
Speaker 1: thousand fifteen. So might I tell you in this one,

373
00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:19,600
Speaker 1: we're backing historical numbers from a Mike Vrabel standpoint, and

374
00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:22,840
Speaker 1: we're getting a perfect recipe. First storyline, a team that's

375
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:25,960
Speaker 1: bottom five in Rush D, which I have no idea

376
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:28,600
Speaker 1: why Miami didn't take advantage of it last week. But

377
00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:33,120
Speaker 1: this team is giving up one forty seven on the ground.

378
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:37,600
Speaker 1: This l a Chargers team. They were missing six defensive

379
00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 1: starters in that game against the Fins. It was part

380
00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:46,600
Speaker 1: of why Eleen Miami public simp nonsense this. It's gonna

381
00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:48,480
Speaker 1: be a public play on the Chargers. I promise you.

382
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:50,480
Speaker 1: The Titans I have a won a football game in

383
00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:54,239
Speaker 1: a month, in three weeks. But again they were an

384
00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:57,879
Speaker 1: unbelievable cover. Still, they're eight and five against the spread,

385
00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:03,000
Speaker 1: their top three against spread this season. And the Chargers

386
00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:06,120
Speaker 1: their last six games and eight of their last nine

387
00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:09,520
Speaker 1: have been decided by seven points or less. We're getting three,

388
00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:13,320
Speaker 1: We're getting Derrick Henry, Derrick Henry. We took him, I

389
00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:15,800
Speaker 1: told you over on yards and getting in the end

390
00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:17,560
Speaker 1: zone against the Jacks. He owns the jack. He had

391
00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:19,560
Speaker 1: over a hundred yards in the first half. They didn't

392
00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:22,800
Speaker 1: give him the ball in the second half. Why for

393
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:29,200
Speaker 1: apol wah. But when he goes for over one twenty,

394
00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:32,439
Speaker 1: which he did against the Jacks, the Titans are eighteen

395
00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:38,719
Speaker 1: and two. Just taking these two elements here, the Titans,

396
00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 1: who haven't had of four game losing streaks and seven

397
00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:44,600
Speaker 1: years ago, and the fact that they're eighteen and two

398
00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:48,000
Speaker 1: win d Henry King. Henry runs for that number and

399
00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:52,160
Speaker 1: the Chargers give up. If you're connecting the blue sclues thoughts,

400
00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:58,959
Speaker 1: there it is, There is your game. The Titans are

401
00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:03,400
Speaker 1: excellent on defense on the sample size of the year.

402
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:06,240
Speaker 1: Haven't played good defense the last three weeks, but they're

403
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:09,359
Speaker 1: still a top three rush defense. So Ekeler is not

404
00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:13,520
Speaker 1: gonna eat on the ground. They're gonna have to lean

405
00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:17,840
Speaker 1: on Herbert again and how many times can Herbert save them?

406
00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:22,800
Speaker 1: This is a gut check game for the Titans. They

407
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:25,960
Speaker 1: don't want anyone in the a f C South smelling blood.

408
00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:29,639
Speaker 1: They want to wrap this division up. And again, the

409
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:33,879
Speaker 1: Chargers do not blow teams out. They always step on

410
00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:37,320
Speaker 1: booby traps. They always find a way to make it difficult.

411
00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 1: You have to take the Titans with the three. I'm

412
00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:41,960
Speaker 1: so glad. I'm giving it to you with plus three,

413
00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:46,240
Speaker 1: short and sweet like some Sobath Patch kids. Last, but

414
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:50,159
Speaker 1: not least, Saturday Football, So make sure you lock it

415
00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:55,879
Speaker 1: in Saturday football. I'm going a f C North. This

416
00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:58,040
Speaker 1: is far and away the grossest pick on the board,

417
00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:00,440
Speaker 1: and I was maybe gonna go giant. It's four and

418
00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:04,040
Speaker 1: a half Prime time flexing spot playoff berth on the

419
00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:06,760
Speaker 1: line should be close. I probably will punch in four

420
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:09,399
Speaker 1: and a half of the g men off that l

421
00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:12,119
Speaker 1: two weeks ago against the Commanders and a Blowoutverse Eagles.

422
00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:16,119
Speaker 1: But I'm gonna give the Ravens plus two and a

423
00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:23,240
Speaker 1: half here on the road against ah un watchable Cleveland

424
00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:26,080
Speaker 1: Browns team will take the two and a half happily.

425
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Speaker 1: The narrative is simple. This is a man in number four,

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00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:33,959
Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson, who I don't want to spend much time

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00:27:34,040 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 1: talking about, who hasn't played football and over seven hundred days.

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00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:41,479
Speaker 1: All right, You go back two weeks ago against the Texans,

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00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:47,119
Speaker 1: Donovan Peoples shown special teams touchdown to Brown's defensive touchdowns

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00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:51,640
Speaker 1: and six offensive points they had twenty seven in the game.

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00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:54,080
Speaker 1: Twenty one came from defense and special teams. You go

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00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:57,359
Speaker 1: against the Bengals last week for Watson a little bit

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00:27:57,400 --> 00:28:00,399
Speaker 1: of improvement through a touchdown, but no, not really. He

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00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:03,640
Speaker 1: had ten points in the game. So in eight quarters

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00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:08,720
Speaker 1: of of of Deshaun wants the Browns of sixteen points

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00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:14,040
Speaker 1: of office, sixteen points of offense. It's not the team

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00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:18,400
Speaker 1: you want to go against. With Roe Kwan Smith, Patrick

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00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:22,840
Speaker 1: Queen and these boys who all have d O G

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00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:25,560
Speaker 1: in their rib cage. This man, ro Kuan Smith, recorded

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00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:27,840
Speaker 1: a sacking an interception Week fourteen against the Steelers. Only

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00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:30,320
Speaker 1: player this season with at least four sacks and three

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00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:38,920
Speaker 1: picks only Layer. Another subtle Ravens culture swoop in a

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00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:42,440
Speaker 1: mid season acquisition. But I look at what Huntley is

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00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:44,040
Speaker 1: and he had a concussion, so he went out, and

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00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:47,560
Speaker 1: Anthony Brown came in undrafted out Oregon. So I'm aware

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00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:49,480
Speaker 1: that I'm backing a team that may or may not

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00:28:49,640 --> 00:28:52,320
Speaker 1: have Huntley go the whole game. Anything could happen, Anthony

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00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:54,680
Speaker 1: Brown could come in. But let me lay it out

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00:28:57,160 --> 00:29:01,720
Speaker 1: an insanely rusty Deshaun o Well, the Browns team that

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00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:05,560
Speaker 1: is playing for next season against a neck and neck

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00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:08,000
Speaker 1: race Ravens Bengals to win this division in a f

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00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:14,160
Speaker 1: C North pennant. The Ravens are the second best run

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00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:16,880
Speaker 1: defense in this league, given up eighty one in the

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00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:20,360
Speaker 1: game and eight best in points against overall, coming in

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00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:24,200
Speaker 1: winning six of their last seven coming in covering five

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00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:27,800
Speaker 1: of their last six against the Browns. Coming in is

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00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:30,440
Speaker 1: the third best road cover in the league at five

458
00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:34,840
Speaker 1: and two against the spread and going against the worst

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00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:38,520
Speaker 1: defense in the league, all right, the Browns of the

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00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:43,520
Speaker 1: it's the Browns, the Cardinals, and the Lines. Statistically speaking,

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00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:46,560
Speaker 1: out of the three worst defense in the league, they

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00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:50,120
Speaker 1: have one offensive touchdown in eight quarters. And yes, the

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00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:58,000
Speaker 1: Ravens they're sneaking by they are sliding five. But they've

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00:29:58,040 --> 00:30:00,360
Speaker 1: won five games by five or fewer points a season,

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00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:01,800
Speaker 1: tied for the most of the NFL. They're right there

466
00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:06,200
Speaker 1: with the Vikings. They have this luck metric. But in December,

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00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:08,240
Speaker 1: I don't want to keep repeating myself, but I have to.

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00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:11,080
Speaker 1: You run the ball, you stop the run, you don't

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00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:13,640
Speaker 1: turn the ball over, and you play real defense, You're

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00:30:13,640 --> 00:30:17,120
Speaker 1: gonna win ball games. You're gonna win ball games. And

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00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:20,400
Speaker 1: let's not understate what this Ravens has been. The last

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00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:24,120
Speaker 1: five weeks of football. They've given up three to the Panthers,

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00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:27,000
Speaker 1: thirteen to the Saints, fourteen of the Steelers, and nine

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00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:31,800
Speaker 1: of the Broncos. And they won those games obviously. So

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00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:40,120
Speaker 1: bottom six defense versus a top eight defense, an offense

476
00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:43,600
Speaker 1: that is lost at sea. I got chubbed by my

477
00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:45,560
Speaker 1: fantasy team. I lost by a point in a half

478
00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:48,320
Speaker 1: against an inferior club in my college. In my college

479
00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:52,040
Speaker 1: fantasy League. Chubb gives me thirty four yards against the Bengals.

480
00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:55,560
Speaker 1: It's embarrassing. This is what happens though you start comes in,

481
00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:57,959
Speaker 1: there's all this pressure from upper management. You gotta get

482
00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:01,640
Speaker 1: in production, you gotta get him going. You completely alien

483
00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:05,640
Speaker 1: a Browns football which is run first. It looked lost

484
00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:10,040
Speaker 1: at castaway seat. So all about a company culture purchase

485
00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:13,240
Speaker 1: here on a Saturday, short work week and a neck

486
00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:16,560
Speaker 1: and neck race here. I believe in Tyler Huntley, and

487
00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:19,600
Speaker 1: I believe in this Ravens d To wrap up the show,

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00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:23,800
Speaker 1: let's give you our picks. Bengals minus three and a half,

489
00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:29,880
Speaker 1: Jets plus one over the Lions, Raiders money line minus

490
00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:35,240
Speaker 1: one ten over the Patriots, Titans plus three at the

491
00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:38,920
Speaker 1: Chargers and the Ravens plus two and a half. Nice

492
00:31:39,080 --> 00:31:41,280
Speaker 1: mix and mingle at two money lines, two dogs and

493
00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:45,360
Speaker 1: a favorite. If I don't go three and two. If

494
00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:49,000
Speaker 1: I don't go three and two, it might be dr

495
00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:51,719
Speaker 1: Evil shave the head time. All right, let's get out

496
00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:54,720
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