Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Crows Podcast, brought
Speaker 1: to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris.
Speaker 1: Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. We are
Speaker 1: heading headfirst into Week nine of the NFL season, so
Speaker 1: it's time for an early look at the week nine lines.
Speaker 1: Here to do that with me is my friend Shawn Green,
Speaker 1: the co founder of the Sports Gambling Podcast Network co
Speaker 1: host of the Sports Gambling Podcast. Find him on Twitter
Speaker 1: at shaunt Green. That's s e A n Sean. Thank
Speaker 1: you for joining me. What's up?
Speaker 2: Oh? Yeah, man.
Speaker 3: Both are teams coming off wins pretty rare this season,
Speaker 3: so I'm excited and yeah, hit a massive.
Speaker 2: Moneyline dog parlay.
Speaker 3: Dogs are really due and I felt like we finally
Speaker 3: got some dogs going last week.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I don't know if it's too early for us
Speaker 1: to buy Super Bowl tickets for the Jets for the
Speaker 1: Jets Eagles, but I'm in if you're in, So if
Speaker 1: you want to get yeah.
Speaker 2: Let's let's just buy. I'm assuming they're both gonna make it.
Speaker 1: I think it's a good bet right now. We'll get
Speaker 1: on that right after we're done with this podcast. But
Speaker 1: first we're going to look at every single line from
Speaker 1: Week nine of the NFL. Before we do, I'll remind
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Speaker 1: get into it here. We've got some interesting ones. No
Speaker 1: bigger game the higher weekend and Thursday night football where
Speaker 1: everyone can enjoy and be with me here with the
Speaker 1: Jets getting ten and a half, the consensus line from
Speaker 1: the Colts in Indianapolis totals forty six and a half.
Speaker 1: Any thoughts on this one?
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, usually my default is the lean towards
Speaker 3: the better team. But a man, is this one's gonna
Speaker 3: be interesting? I wouldn't be surprised. Well, I'd like to
Speaker 3: get your take. Do you think people are gonna be
Speaker 3: riding that Mike White hype coming into this game and
Speaker 3: liking the dog or is the public just gonna go
Speaker 3: because because the Colts are coming off a loss the
Speaker 3: Jets are coming off a win.
Speaker 2: If I was taking the dog, I'd almost want the
Speaker 2: opposite there.
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, this is like, this is the opposite of
Speaker 1: what you want for This would ordinarily you would think
Speaker 1: would be a spot to back the Jets. But such
Speaker 1: a tough loss here for the Colts and the Jets
Speaker 1: of course having that big win, I'd have to think
Speaker 1: that the public is going to be on the Jets
Speaker 1: at this one when you're over ten, right, like because
Speaker 1: of recency bias and Mike White. You know that his
Speaker 1: Hall of Fame bust is our prey, you know, being
Speaker 1: its introduction. So I would think that it's there. I
Speaker 1: think if I had to go one way or another,
Speaker 1: I mean, I think the Colts are probably gonna win
Speaker 1: this game handily. We saw by the way, right what
Speaker 1: happened the last time the Colts had their guts ripped out,
Speaker 1: which was on that Monday night football game against the Ravens.
Speaker 1: Then they played an inferior team the next week and
Speaker 1: they trounced the Texans, as they should. I think they
Speaker 1: do bounce back here at home. But ten and a
Speaker 1: half is just too much for me to take. So
Speaker 1: I don't know, man, I guess if I had to
Speaker 1: go aside, you're give me a hook on a double
Speaker 1: digit spread, like I might as well take the dog,
Speaker 1: But it's kind of a stay away from me, what
Speaker 1: do you?
Speaker 3: Yeah, Yeah, I think we'll see kind of where this
Speaker 3: line actually goes. I mean, if it gets up to thirteen,
Speaker 3: I think people are gonna pound the Jets, and kind
Speaker 3: of the same if it gets down to ten. So
Speaker 3: I think it's gonna hold tight here at ten and
Speaker 3: a half. Yeah, they want you to pay that.
Speaker 2: Extra hook to get you to get you on the Jets. Probably,
Speaker 2: so I would. I would lean Colts, but it's early.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think realistically what everyone should do is just
Speaker 1: enjoy the game, enjoy the watch, enjoy Thursday night, but
Speaker 1: enjoy the Jets and Thursday night football. So we'll see again.
Speaker 1: I mean, the one thing if you want to think,
Speaker 1: if you want actual sort of quote unquote analysis of
Speaker 1: what you want to do here, it's gonna be really
Speaker 1: tough for the Jets to continue to sort of just
Speaker 1: lean entirely on Michael Carter because Colts are, you know,
Speaker 1: best in defensive DVOA against the run, and it's kind
Speaker 1: of you know, we'll see what Mike White can do.
Speaker 1: You can do.
Speaker 2: Another four hundred game performance might happen.
Speaker 1: You never know. I mean, Corey Davis might playing this
Speaker 1: one that will help. But yeah, it's just kind of
Speaker 1: a stay away from me. I don't expect, I like you,
Speaker 1: I don't expect the line to move to ten. But
Speaker 1: it's not gonna move, you know, I don't think I
Speaker 1: think this is where it sits. I think it's gonna
Speaker 1: just kind of stay here, all right. The Vikings are
Speaker 1: visiting the Ravens. Ravens coming off the buy at home
Speaker 1: or laying five and a half the total forty nine
Speaker 1: and a half. Kind of a dud here for the
Speaker 1: Vikings on Sunday Night Football. Obviously now a healthy Ravens team.
Speaker 3: What do you think, well, Kirk Cousins in prime time
Speaker 3: just came up in a big way, a big collapse
Speaker 3: ne g at a non conference road spot for the Vikings.
Speaker 3: I mean, if you're liking the Ravens, and that's certainly appetizing.
Speaker 3: Under six teams have been bad off the bye week.
Speaker 3: I don't know what it is, but I think if
Speaker 3: any team can break it, I think it's this Ravens team.
Speaker 3: And that felt almost like a dream crusher game for
Speaker 3: this Vikings team that just keeps losing close games or
Speaker 3: maybe games you should say, like they lost by three
Speaker 3: points to the Bengals. They you know, lost a game
Speaker 3: in Arizona they could have won with the missfield goal.
Speaker 3: They certainly could have won at home against Dallas. Negative
Speaker 3: go on the road against this Ravens team that they're
Speaker 3: looking to bounce back. So I think anything under a touchdown,
Speaker 3: it's gonna be tough to get a ton of Vikings actions.
Speaker 3: So I do think this will this may move up
Speaker 3: and as the week goes on.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think if you like the Vikings you should
Speaker 1: wait because I can't see it going down really. But
Speaker 1: you know, the thing is, Sean, I don't know if
Speaker 1: you feel this way the Vikings and Kirk Cousins. It
Speaker 1: is always when you think you should bet on them,
Speaker 1: they fail, right and when you want to bet against them,
Speaker 1: they come through. And I have backed them on the
Speaker 1: two games. I can't remember what the second one was,
Speaker 1: but I back them against Arizona and they were getting
Speaker 1: whatever it was in that game three and a half,
Speaker 1: four and a half, so they they covered the other
Speaker 1: one that I went with them. But they're ugly when
Speaker 1: you have to take them. So right now, I certainly
Speaker 1: lean the Ravens for sure, because I think, just looking
Speaker 1: at the way this game is gonna unfold, it's gotta
Speaker 1: favor them. And we'll see if Justin Jefferson, by the way,
Speaker 1: is okay, because I know it was a little banged
Speaker 1: up there at the end. But I feel like when
Speaker 1: I dig into this and I get to Thursday and
Speaker 1: I'm thinking about it, it's gonna be like, man, this
Speaker 1: is the spot where you know, Mike Zimmer and Kirk
Speaker 1: Cousins figure out a way to keep this game much
Speaker 1: closer than they should. So the go ahead side, Oh no, I.
Speaker 2: Was gonna say.
Speaker 3: Also, just a really really interesting game from DFS as well.
Speaker 3: These these non conference games can get kind of interesting
Speaker 3: and I wouldn't be surprised if if Lamar is a
Speaker 3: fun play and the Ravens have had issues on their defense,
Speaker 3: for defense that's historically really good. I mean, we saw
Speaker 3: the Bengals put up a bunch of points against them,
Speaker 3: so kind of be interesting to see what happens here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely a game I'll be watching, regardless of any
Speaker 1: betting or fantasy impact. Just a fun game to watch.
Speaker 1: But yeah, bottom line is, I think if you like
Speaker 1: the Vikings, it's something you can wait because I don't
Speaker 1: expect this to get much worse. Browns are visiting the Bengals.
Speaker 1: The Bengals are currently laying three total of forty seven,
Speaker 1: but tough losses here for both teams. What do you
Speaker 1: think we see here with the trade that line, by
Speaker 1: the way, we'll say we'll be honest. Recording this little
Speaker 1: later this week had some scheduling issues for me, So
Speaker 1: no trades, no big things here that moved. OBJ is
Speaker 1: still with the Browns.
Speaker 3: Is Dad's still a cutting up game film of him
Speaker 3: being wide out?
Speaker 1: Dad is not happy, I think, but look it is.
Speaker 1: It's status quo here for both these teams. So what
Speaker 1: do you think here with the Bengals leangth three in
Speaker 1: the divisional game.
Speaker 3: Yeah, no, I mean I feel like this is you know,
Speaker 3: if I had a guess to spread coming into it,
Speaker 3: I would have guessed three. Both pretty even teams, division matchup,
Speaker 3: both coming off losses. I think this is just kind
Speaker 3: of who do you like more as a team long term?
Speaker 3: And who do you thinks to as simple as it sounds,
Speaker 3: who do you think the better team is? Do you
Speaker 3: like this Cleveland team? And I'm still kind of out
Speaker 3: on Cleveland with Odell and that labroom issue again, I
Speaker 3: mean or sorry, not Odell Baker.
Speaker 2: I mean, Odell's his own issue, but.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, Baker just doesn't look right. That offense doesn't
Speaker 3: look right, even getting chubbed back, they just did not
Speaker 3: look good. And you know, if you can't put up
Speaker 3: more points against Pittsburgh at home, and Bengals really are
Speaker 3: gonna be jacked up for this spot.
Speaker 2: So I think it's gonna be tough for the Browns.
Speaker 1: I kind of like the over, and you know, I
Speaker 1: know it's a divisional game where these two and you know,
Speaker 1: Cleveland obviously played it pretty defensive game and the Bengals
Speaker 1: have had a good defense all year. Long, unless, of course,
Speaker 1: Hall of Famer Mike White is there where he can
Speaker 1: just totally tear him up. But I do expect the
Speaker 1: Bengals offense is really clicking right now. You know, the
Speaker 1: passing game is working well, and even if they have
Speaker 1: trouble running the ball, which Cleveland you know, a very
Speaker 1: tough run defense. Although Najie Harris was pretty good last week,
Speaker 1: I do think that the Bengals are going to be
Speaker 1: able to move the ball. And I think Cleveland knows.
Speaker 1: I mean, Mayfield wasn't terrible last week. Their offense has
Speaker 1: just seemed out of sorts the entire year, right, I
Speaker 1: mean Odell and Baker obviously, as his dad knows, I
Speaker 1: can't get on the same page. Landry is hit or
Speaker 1: miss a little bit, but I kind of expect points
Speaker 1: here to go. There's some forty six and a half
Speaker 1: out there. I feel like conventional wisdom suggests that it'll
Speaker 1: be a close defensive game. But I do think actually
Speaker 1: that both teams are going to score. I kind of expect,
Speaker 1: after last week's tough game against the Steilers, where they
Speaker 1: didn't do much offensively, for the Browns to come out
Speaker 1: here firing some creative plays. Be able to move the
Speaker 1: ball a little bit, so I personally lean the over,
Speaker 1: but I don't think it's something. I don't think it's
Speaker 1: going to move all that much from where it is.
Speaker 1: Bill's continue their trend of just laying, you know, more
Speaker 1: in a touchdown here. Fourteen and a half as they
Speaker 1: visit Jacksonville. Total forty nine.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I guess this is about right.
Speaker 3: And it's crazy to think this spread is kind of
Speaker 3: low for this Jags Bills team, and the Bills aren't
Speaker 3: afraid to put it on teams.
Speaker 2: I know they kind of let Miami hang around.
Speaker 3: And thankfully because I was on the Bills at like
Speaker 3: thirteen and a half, Josh Allen had that there was
Speaker 3: like a point where like are they gonna run it
Speaker 3: out or you know what's gonna happen. Then he took
Speaker 3: that bootleg into the end zone and got the cover.
Speaker 3: A bit of a sweat there, But I think it's
Speaker 3: gonna be tough to get money on the Jags, and
Speaker 3: I could see something similar to what we saw with
Speaker 3: the Houston game last week, where it starts at fourteen
Speaker 3: and a half, creeps up as the week goes along,
Speaker 3: gets to sixteen and a half, and I'm sure everyone
Speaker 3: saw that that ended up being a bad beat for people,
Speaker 3: because the Rams ended up winning thirty eight twenty two.
Speaker 3: So if you're gonna you know again, if you're gonna
Speaker 3: take the favorite, generally take it early in the week.
Speaker 3: If you're gonna take the doll you can wait, because
Speaker 3: I think everyone's gonna be putting the bills in the
Speaker 3: teas or taking the bills instinctively.
Speaker 2: And yeah, if you like the Jags, which interesting to.
Speaker 3: Like the Jags at any point, but I would just
Speaker 3: hold off because you might get closer to a seventeen.
Speaker 1: That's exactly right. If you like the Bills, hit it out,
Speaker 1: because fourteen and a half, it's actually fourteen at my
Speaker 1: book DraftKings fourteen and a half. Pretty much everywhere, that's
Speaker 1: the best line you're going to see, I expect, so
Speaker 1: because there's just you can't beck the Jaguars right now,
Speaker 1: no matter what mo people who work on models and
Speaker 1: stuff like that, and that's what they bet and the
Speaker 1: syndicates like, no matter what it says like, there are teams,
Speaker 1: and I think the Jaguars are one of those teams
Speaker 1: because of how poorly coached they are. Because of how
Speaker 1: few adjustments that they make, you know, at halftime that
Speaker 1: just kind of break the models to the extent where
Speaker 1: I imagine that there's going to be so much money
Speaker 1: coming in here on the Bills, and I agree, I
Speaker 1: think it's going to creep up to fifteen, sixteen, sixteen
Speaker 1: and a half. And that's where you get a little worried.
Speaker 1: Like we saw with the Rams, a game that they
Speaker 1: totally dominated and probably could have won by fifty five
Speaker 1: points had they get their foot on the gas. So
Speaker 1: you like the Jags waited out, you like the Bills
Speaker 1: go now.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's fourteen at DraftKings at minus one ten is
Speaker 3: is pretty appetizing right now, Urban Meyer, he breaks a
Speaker 3: lot of models. Yeah, And I mean you this Jags team,
Speaker 3: and granted it was a weird travel spot for them,
Speaker 3: but they led up thirty one points to Gino Smith,
Speaker 3: a lad team, So I mean that says it all
Speaker 3: right there for me, and I just it's gonna be
Speaker 3: tough for them to slow down this Bill's offense.
Speaker 1: I will not hear dispara dream remarks about my former
Speaker 1: jet Gino Smith, but I will say that that's also
Speaker 1: coming off a bye right, Like what happens when you're
Speaker 1: not by Yeah, and now you've got to take on right, Okay,
Speaker 1: Broncos visiting the Cowboys. The Cowboys are laying nine and
Speaker 1: a half and the total is forty nine and a half.
Speaker 1: I will say that legitimately three seconds before the word
Speaker 1: Broncos came out, I did see something come across the
Speaker 1: wire that Noah Fant has been placed on the COVID
Speaker 1: nineteen reserve list. I don't know whether or not that
Speaker 1: means he's gonna miss the game necessarily, but they could
Speaker 1: be down their tight end here for this game. Broncos
Speaker 1: again getting nine and a half here in Dallas and
Speaker 1: the totals forty nine and a half? What do you think?
Speaker 2: Yeah? This is and again this is the classic.
Speaker 3: Like if you like the favorite, hopefully you bet it
Speaker 3: at the opening number, because I think this opened as
Speaker 3: low as seven. Now, obviously the Broncos trained away von Miller,
Speaker 3: and von Miller shouldn't him being playing or not shouldn't
Speaker 3: really move the line, but I think it does signal
Speaker 3: to people like kind of waving the white flag here.
Speaker 3: Now you have a non conference spot for this Broncos
Speaker 3: team going up against the Cowboys who will probably play
Speaker 3: deck again.
Speaker 2: He looked pretty healthy. I was surprised he didn't go there.
Speaker 2: They played it safe.
Speaker 3: They you know, got the win with Cooper rush guy
Speaker 3: guy looks like Carson Wentz's stunt double and they just
Speaker 3: they just I mean, it's insane that they're seven and
Speaker 3: zero again to spread. You think at some point this
Speaker 3: is gonna run out, and maybe this Broncos team is
Speaker 3: the team to do it, just because Teddy Bridgewater is
Speaker 3: a machine against the spread on the road. I think
Speaker 3: it's as high as like seventy percent. So I had
Speaker 3: the Broncos as one of my locks last week. Ugly game,
Speaker 3: but they got it done. I mean, von Miller by
Speaker 3: all accounts, him leaving kind of set some bad vibes
Speaker 3: for this locker room. So it'll be in an interesting
Speaker 3: emotional spot I think for this Broncos team with no
Speaker 3: von Miller and the Cowboys are just in cruise control
Speaker 3: right now.
Speaker 1: Did you see the story on that, like the reason
Speaker 1: why they traded him.
Speaker 2: I heard.
Speaker 3: I heard there was stuff about like a Halloween party
Speaker 3: that he got really mad that some of the guys
Speaker 3: didn't chip in for the Halloween party.
Speaker 2: Is that what you're referring.
Speaker 1: To that's correct, apparently, and it like infected the locker
Speaker 1: room and everybody was really pissed at each other, and
Speaker 1: the Broncos were like, we're not resigning him anyway, so
Speaker 1: we're just gonna shoot them out. I don't know whether
Speaker 1: or not that is true. I cannot vouch for the
Speaker 1: veracity of that story, but nevertheless, it's fun to talk
Speaker 1: about for a second. Yeah, it feels like for me that,
Speaker 1: I mean, there is a ten out there, by the way,
Speaker 1: and a couple spot points bet for example. So my
Speaker 1: guess is it will probably get to ten because nobody
Speaker 1: wants to bet on the Broncos, and everybody's gonna want
Speaker 1: to bend the Cowboys, especially now Dak should be back.
Speaker 1: You're right, everything suggested he is going to come back,
Speaker 1: not that they need him with you know, Cooper rush there.
Speaker 1: But I do think that this is a spot where
Speaker 1: it strikes me that I want to back the Broncos
Speaker 1: just because they I can't figure the Broncos out, Sean,
Speaker 1: I don't know about you, like I can't get a
Speaker 1: read on what they are, and they've they've been decimated
Speaker 1: with injuries, you know, to their linebackers, so suddenly they
Speaker 1: became very vulnerable against the run. I think Bryce Callan
Speaker 1: may have been injured in this one too, so I
Speaker 1: need to check on the you know, cause you're not
Speaker 1: gonna be able to hold down all these receivers. But
Speaker 1: it does strike me as a spot where they's sort
Speaker 1: of classic, like at some point we got to sell
Speaker 1: the Cowboys, right, at some point they're not this good.
Speaker 1: This feels like it might be it, but I would
Speaker 1: wait because I don't think it's going to go down
Speaker 1: like the spread's gonna, you know, move towards seven. I think,
Speaker 1: if anything, it's going to get to ten, maybe even
Speaker 1: higher than that.
Speaker 3: Well, and if their teaser betters in the audience, it's
Speaker 3: it's been a great year to be betting those teases.
Speaker 3: I think, you know, double digit favorites had won outright,
Speaker 3: something like twenty seven and oh actually going into that
Speaker 3: Jets Bengals, I think there were like twenty seven to
Speaker 3: ZH straight up. So I do think they're gonna move this,
Speaker 3: of course, to ten and a half. I think similar
Speaker 3: to what the KC line was, because then they get
Speaker 3: teaser protection. I know because I had I had the
Speaker 3: Chiefs as my last leg in the tease, and I
Speaker 3: don't know why I'm still on the Chiefs. It was
Speaker 3: more just being anti the Giants. Although the Giants just
Speaker 3: keep showing up on the road for some reason. I
Speaker 3: don't I don't understand why there's so much better on
Speaker 3: the road than they are at home.
Speaker 2: So I think you're right.
Speaker 3: It gets to at least ten, probably ten and a
Speaker 3: half because they're protecting it and says like six p teesus.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, that's where we're going. Texans are visiting
Speaker 1: the Dolphins. You know, Deshaun Watson is still on the
Speaker 1: Texans for now. Could have been Q being for the
Speaker 1: other team if you would believe the rumors early on.
Speaker 1: The Dolphins are currently laying six and a half with
Speaker 1: a total of forty six. This is a weird game
Speaker 1: for me, Sean, How do you feel about it? Yeah?
Speaker 3: I mean a one win Dolphins team, like, what are
Speaker 3: they won in seven and they're laying six. That's to
Speaker 3: me is just crazy. But then on the other side,
Speaker 3: how do you talk yourself into taking the Texans at
Speaker 3: any point? I'm still holding out hope that my boy
Speaker 3: Tyrod Taylor. Yeah, it sounded like he was maybe close
Speaker 3: last week. But again, what are the Texans playing for? Like,
Speaker 3: do they I mean, you know, obviously Tyrod isn't the
Speaker 3: man of the future. Do they want to see what
Speaker 3: they have with Davis Mills? I feel like we kind
Speaker 3: of already know what we have with Davis Mills.
Speaker 2: And now Miami.
Speaker 3: By all accounts, it seemed like they wanted to get
Speaker 3: the trade done. The contingency was that he would have
Speaker 3: to settle these civil lawsuits, according to reports, and for
Speaker 3: whatever reason, that didn't happen. So now Miami's in a
Speaker 3: weird spot because clearly, I mean, how committed can they
Speaker 3: actually beat a Tuah?
Speaker 2: It's clearly into his head?
Speaker 3: And I'm not a big to a guy by any means,
Speaker 3: but man, this is a game where if you're betting this,
Speaker 3: you're a brave person.
Speaker 2: Because I have no I have no like you can.
Speaker 3: I don't want to be I don't want to have
Speaker 3: a ticket on either one of these teams right now.
Speaker 1: I will take a ticket on this game, but it
Speaker 1: will probably be on the over because I think what
Speaker 1: we're gonna see is a lot of offense in that
Speaker 1: I think Miami is They're not terriball offensively once with
Speaker 1: Devontai Parker back with Jaylen Waddle sickne Yeah, get sicky exactly.
Speaker 1: You know. I hate to mention his name, but Miles
Speaker 1: Gasking now without Malcolm Brown like can do some things
Speaker 1: in the right thing and against Houston, and I also
Speaker 1: again they probably want to it probably is very motivated,
Speaker 1: I would assume to kind of show what you can
Speaker 1: do in this and you know, the Texans, whether it's
Speaker 1: garbage seim or not, like they can put up points.
Speaker 1: And the Dolphins defense played better last week, but they've
Speaker 1: been a sieve this whole year. Man. So it's only
Speaker 1: forty six. It's forty six and a half for me
Speaker 1: at DraftKings, but everywhere else looks like at forty six.
Speaker 1: So that's actually where I go. I'm going to bet
Speaker 1: it as soon as we're off this podcast. But that's
Speaker 1: it for a side. No, I will not bet a
Speaker 1: side at all on this game. I don't know what
Speaker 1: you do with this one, but Saints at home are
Speaker 1: laying six to the Falcons and the total is a
Speaker 1: minuscule forty two and a half. So we presume it's
Speaker 1: going to be Taysom Hill, who everything said suggested that
Speaker 1: he would be up if not, it's going to be
Speaker 1: Trevor Simeon. There's no Calvin Ridley on the other side,
Speaker 1: So how do you break this one down?
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is this to me feels a hair high
Speaker 3: just based on we don't know.
Speaker 2: I mean, Jamis Winston was a legit quarterback.
Speaker 3: I mean, I still don't know if I'm really factoring
Speaker 3: in modeling. Not that I'm a model guy, but that
Speaker 3: you know, I'm not really counting Taysom Hill as a
Speaker 3: legit starting quarterback.
Speaker 2: And I guess we'll see there often.
Speaker 3: Certainly does seem pretty different when they have a Taysom
Speaker 3: Hill in there.
Speaker 2: As far as like the stuff they're gonna run.
Speaker 3: They do have a Kamara obviously healthy, and but six
Speaker 3: points feels a bit high for this division game and
Speaker 3: they're coming off that felt like.
Speaker 2: A massive victory.
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm sure you saw that video of Jamis
Speaker 3: dancing in the locker room with the fog machine going,
Speaker 3: celebrating that big win. And I always like to fade
Speaker 3: teams coming off a big win, laying a big number,
Speaker 3: especially in a division spot. Again, I'm not in love
Speaker 3: with the Falcons, but them back during this certainly is
Speaker 3: a possibility.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't love it either side. Man, Like I agree,
Speaker 1: it's such a letdown spot here for the Saints after
Speaker 1: that victory, like you said, like it really really is.
Speaker 1: And the Falcons looked terrible, But that's what that's when
Speaker 1: you buy a team. Yeah, right, you buy a team
Speaker 1: and they look like the worst team in the NFL, right,
Speaker 1: I mean.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think this will end up being closer to
Speaker 3: four than seven.
Speaker 2: So I was surprised to see a six.
Speaker 1: So I guess if you like the Falcons, then probably
Speaker 1: you'd think you should take them now as opposed to Wait, right, Okay,
Speaker 1: I think that's right. I don't think he gets the
Speaker 1: seven just because as Giants are home where you know
Speaker 1: they we just talked about it not their strong side.
Speaker 1: They're getting I'm sorry, they're getting two and a half
Speaker 1: points from the Raiders. The total is forty six and
Speaker 1: a half. The Raiders are coming off the bye, but
Speaker 1: they're traveling across country, and of course the Henry Ruggs
Speaker 1: situation where the horrific accident he will I assume be
Speaker 1: certainly not playing this game, probably not play for the
Speaker 1: rest of the season, whatever happens. So that does impact
Speaker 1: their offense of course, but they're laying two and a
Speaker 1: half here off the by with the total of forty
Speaker 1: six and a half.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that that rug story.
Speaker 3: Really there's a wrench into this handicap in this this
Speaker 3: Raiders team. You know, between this and then the Gruden thing,
Speaker 3: they've kind of been on an emotional roller coaster.
Speaker 2: I imagine for this team.
Speaker 3: Hard hard to not like the Raiders, and they they again,
Speaker 3: I don't even know what you would compare this to,
Speaker 3: but they've they've already been.
Speaker 2: Through a lot of a lot of stuff so far
Speaker 2: in this season.
Speaker 3: I do like the matchups. I mean, I think the
Speaker 3: health of Darren Waller will be big. I mean, you
Speaker 3: know who's at Foster Morow filled in pretty well, but
Speaker 3: I think I think Darren Waller, certainly the Giants would
Speaker 3: have their hands full. And again, this Giants team that
Speaker 3: was a I mean that the two minute drills they're
Speaker 3: running and they're super banged up. It'll be interesting to
Speaker 3: see what the injury report. It does feel like this
Speaker 3: is the game probably where Saquon comes back. But yeah,
Speaker 3: so you know, two and a half point road favorite
Speaker 3: for the Raiders sounds about right. I would be shocked
Speaker 3: if it gets to three and a half for the Raiders,
Speaker 3: especially everything that they're gonna have to deal with.
Speaker 1: So it is, it is, I will say, I mean
Speaker 1: the consensus line again where a betting bro's like home,
Speaker 1: the consensus line is two and a half. But it's
Speaker 1: basically fifty percent of the books I'm looking at or
Speaker 1: two and a half and like forty nine percent or
Speaker 1: whatever are at three. So it is bouncing back between
Speaker 1: two and a half and three. So I don't know
Speaker 1: if that means that if you're at two and a
Speaker 1: half and you like the Raiders, obviously go now because
Speaker 1: there's clearly no consensus here as to where they get
Speaker 1: to three. We can't forget. I mean, you did mention
Speaker 1: I do think Saquan should come back at this point
Speaker 1: because it's been three games and they didn't place them
Speaker 1: on ir so you felt like, right, they're probably there.
Speaker 1: Maybe Kenny Galley comes back. They're probably gonna be down
Speaker 1: those Sterling Shepherd they just can't keep anyone healthy in
Speaker 1: that team. But again, the Giants. I'll never back the
Speaker 1: Giants at home.
Speaker 3: No, they're so bad against the spread at home, and
Speaker 3: they've been sneakily okay in certain spots against the spread,
Speaker 3: but it's usually on the road or in especially.
Speaker 2: In division games.
Speaker 3: Joe Judge has been I know as an Eagles fan,
Speaker 3: they've been good against the number, not great straight up,
Speaker 3: but yeah, the two and a half kind of interesting.
Speaker 3: But it's tough to talk yourself into this giant team
Speaker 3: at home.
Speaker 1: All right, two teams coming off big wins. Here, the
Speaker 1: Patriots are visiting the Panthers. The Pats are laying four
Speaker 1: points and the total is forty one. We have question
Speaker 1: marks about Sam Darnold. He's in the concussion protocol right now.
Speaker 1: It's a concussion. We never know exactly how that's gonna
Speaker 1: shake itself out. We don't know if Christian McCaffrey is
Speaker 1: going to play. I do not think that he is personally.
Speaker 1: So if you're letting that factor it in, you can
Speaker 1: listen to me or not. But what do you think
Speaker 1: here with the Pats laying for and that's total really
Speaker 1: small forty one.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's interesting, and there's a there's a revenge angle
Speaker 3: as well, I think for Gilmore there and you know it,
Speaker 3: maybe it is a good time to fade some of
Speaker 3: this Patriots hype.
Speaker 2: But you know, PJ.
Speaker 3: Walker who I loved in the XFL or AF I
Speaker 3: forget he was fun, but he did not look good
Speaker 3: in relief of Sam Darnold and this Panthers offense. Man
Speaker 3: as a guy who owned Robbie a lot of shares
Speaker 3: of Robbie Anderson in Best Ball and you know, even
Speaker 3: some season long stuff, he has just been a colossal disappointment.
Speaker 2: You're you're right to think Christian McCaffrey.
Speaker 3: I mean, if you're if you're fine taking the Panthers
Speaker 3: without McCaffrey, I think you wait.
Speaker 2: So if he ends up being a late scratch, I wouldn't.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, could this get as high as like six?
Speaker 3: It certainly isn't gonna hit seven, But the fact that
Speaker 3: it's already at four is just showing a tremendous amount
Speaker 3: of respect.
Speaker 1: For this.
Speaker 3: Patriots team, who looked pretty good against the Chargers. Now
Speaker 3: it's a back to back road spot, which is for
Speaker 3: a young team, a young quarterback, that is a tough spot.
Speaker 2: So again, probably.
Speaker 3: Wait if you like the Panthers, but man, yeah, you
Speaker 3: got to see who's the quarterback and what shafe He's
Speaker 3: in a lot of question marks for the Panthers.
Speaker 1: It's a really tough game for me, even assuming that
Speaker 1: Donald plays, just because I think that it's been shown
Speaker 1: a little bit here Sean over the last few weeks
Speaker 1: that Sam Darnold probably is not the long term solution
Speaker 1: for an NFL franchise at quarterback. I like the guy.
Speaker 1: I wish we hadn't ruined his career, but I think
Speaker 1: we probably did so. I think when you put him
Speaker 1: up against a Bill Belichick defense at this point, it's
Speaker 1: probably not going to end well, as most recent games haven't.
Speaker 1: The Panthers, though, are getting healthy on defense, and again
Speaker 1: with Gilmour there, that's a big addition. It's a really
Speaker 1: tough game. So I understand why the spread is at
Speaker 1: fort like I can't take. I don't think I can
Speaker 1: take the under on forty one, but I do. This
Speaker 1: does strike me as like a seventeen thirteen game realistically.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so yeah, no, it feels like it could get ugly,
Speaker 3: kind of like that the game the Panthers just played.
Speaker 2: I mean the Panthers Falcons. The Panthers have been.
Speaker 3: In a lot of ugly games. I mean, Eagles beat
Speaker 3: them twenty one to eighteen. That was a super ugly game.
Speaker 3: You know, they kind of got off to that hot
Speaker 3: start and have been flat a little bit, but again
Speaker 3: coming off a win, a much needed win. Maybe if
Speaker 3: McCaffrey plays, the spread gets down to.
Speaker 2: Three and a half.
Speaker 3: But I feel like, if anything, it could creep up
Speaker 3: a little bit because I could see a lot of
Speaker 3: people putting the Patriots in the tease.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and again, you know, if you like the Panthers
Speaker 1: and it turns out Donald plays like at four and
Speaker 1: a half, he teas it up to ten and a half. Like,
Speaker 1: I don't mind that either, just in terms of what
Speaker 1: we're gonna see, but it is something where you gotta
Speaker 1: wait a little bit. Unfortunately, because of Sam Darnald, charters
Speaker 1: are visiting your Eagles here. The Eagles coming off the
Speaker 1: big win, are laying a point in the consensus line.
Speaker 1: There are some one and a half and the totals big,
Speaker 1: it's fifty. So you know onn't knowl Sean looked like
Speaker 1: you figured some stuff out, which is run the ball
Speaker 1: a little bit. You've now got the worst rush defense
Speaker 1: in the NFL. Are we going to see a repeat
Speaker 1: here for the Eagles?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 3: I mean every that Detroit Lions game was danger dangerous
Speaker 3: for Eagles fans not because it gave us hope, but
Speaker 3: because now we've become drunk with power because we kept
Speaker 3: we kept telling Nick Sirianni and the Eagles just run
Speaker 3: the ball, run the dang ball. And then they actually
Speaker 3: do run the dang ball, and it's a blowout victory.
Speaker 3: So now every Eagles fan knows exactly what to do,
Speaker 3: and we've been vindicated as fans. This is a little
Speaker 3: interesting nugget coming in here. I mean, the Eagles haven't
Speaker 3: won a game at home yet this year, usually very
Speaker 3: good historically, even when the team's bad will kind of
Speaker 3: show up at home. All three wins have come on
Speaker 3: the road, So you imagine this is a get up
Speaker 3: spot for the Eagles, but also on the other side,
Speaker 3: it's it's a get up spot for this Chargers team.
Speaker 3: They've lost, you know, they lost bad to the Ravens,
Speaker 3: lost a tough game at home to the Patriots. And
Speaker 3: that's a lot of travel too, like you talk, and
Speaker 3: there was a bye week in there, but still going
Speaker 3: to the East coast, coming all the way back to
Speaker 3: the West coast. Now going back to the East Coast
Speaker 3: for a non conference spot where your road favorite and
Speaker 3: Herbert seems to be struggling here a little bit.
Speaker 1: He does, He definitely does. And you look at sort
Speaker 1: of his breakdown and he's either phenomenal and totally lights
Speaker 1: it up or he's got absolutely nothing going on whatsoever.
Speaker 1: And the thing is, I kind of like the Eagles defense.
Speaker 1: I think they're a little underrated here. So I don't
Speaker 1: know who's gonna win this game, Like, I don't feel
Speaker 1: comfortable and it's one, so it doesn't matter. Obviously. I
Speaker 1: kind of lean the under a little bit. I could
Speaker 1: see this because again, the Charges are really vulnerable on
Speaker 1: the ground, and so I'm sure the Eagles, hopefully we'll
Speaker 1: try to run it, but I think they'll probably struggle
Speaker 1: through the air a little bit.
Speaker 2: Yeah, every fingers crossed.
Speaker 1: Fingers crossed, and the Chargers offense just looks again, a
Speaker 1: little out of sorts at this point. You know, traveling
Speaker 1: cross country here Philadelphia strikes me as a low scoring
Speaker 1: game a little bit. So the fact that total is fifty,
Speaker 1: I'll probably hit that now. It's fifty and a half
Speaker 1: at a couple of spots too, So it strikes me
Speaker 1: as an under type of game. This one. We all
Speaker 1: want to see Packers visiting the Chiefs. The Chiefs are
Speaker 1: one point favorites and the totals fifty four and a half.
Speaker 1: Sean any reaction here.
Speaker 3: Uh yeah, you know it's man, I mean, what was
Speaker 3: the My reaction is how you know the mighty have fallen?
Speaker 2: Because if you would have?
Speaker 3: I don't know what the like Game of the Year
Speaker 3: spreads those ones that come out in June when you're
Speaker 3: when you're desperate for football numbers to break down, but
Speaker 3: I'm sure it was. It was well north to three,
Speaker 3: even even with the Packers coming in as a pretty
Speaker 3: respected team.
Speaker 2: You know, Chiefs at home.
Speaker 3: It's it's crazy how how much stuff has changed. And
Speaker 3: I think the public is going to be stoked about
Speaker 3: taking this Packers team. They got a little mini by
Speaker 3: here and DeVante Adams I think should be coming off
Speaker 3: the COVID list.
Speaker 2: He missed that game and and they missed a couple
Speaker 2: of their receivers.
Speaker 3: So because being on the COVID list, so ideally they
Speaker 3: I mean, there's serious issues in this Chiefs defense, but
Speaker 3: really the turnover issues for the Chiefs offense don't seem
Speaker 3: to be going away anytime soon. And clearly Patrick Mahomes
Speaker 3: is pressing like if Monday night at home against the Giants.
Speaker 2: Wasn't a get right spot for this Chiefs team?
Speaker 3: Is there a get right spot for them?
Speaker 1: It's not here, That's what I can say. I don't
Speaker 1: see how you avoid taking the Packers in this one.
Speaker 1: Like with Adams coming back, which again he's supposed to
Speaker 1: be on track to report on Thursday, Alan Ozard is
Speaker 1: already off the COVID list ANDVS has been activated off
Speaker 1: of IR at least designated to return. He probably is
Speaker 1: going to come back, so he got a full compliment
Speaker 1: of weapons here, and the Chiefs look terrible. My real
Speaker 1: thing with this, Sean, is that like this is begging
Speaker 1: you to take the Packers. I mean, everybody was watching
Speaker 1: that game. The spread was ten ten points, and I
Speaker 1: thought the Chiefs were going to cover that spread. And
Speaker 1: they looked completely out of sorts. I mean, Mahomes looks
Speaker 1: I made the analogy on our discord yesterday. It looks
Speaker 1: like a rookie QB at times, just given the fact
Speaker 1: that he gets back there, he takes forever, He runs
Speaker 1: around NonStop before he either makes a miraculous throw because
Speaker 1: he's Patrick Mahomes, or he kind of throws out about
Speaker 1: or maybe you know, maybe Tyreek Hill does something. But
Speaker 1: it just looks like there is somehow, at least for
Speaker 1: right now, a formula as to what you do on
Speaker 1: defense against Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs offense. You drop
Speaker 1: everybody deep, you take away the explosive play, and you
Speaker 1: rush him. And that has been working right now. Now
Speaker 1: you've got Patrick Mahomes and you've got Andy Reid, so
Speaker 1: they'll probably figure this out. But even if they do,
Speaker 1: you have perhaps the worst defense in all of football
Speaker 1: right now against Aaron Rodgers off of mini by feeling
Speaker 1: really good. I don't see how you You don't have
Speaker 1: to run to do it. It's a point like if
Speaker 1: they're favored by a point, if they're giving a point,
Speaker 1: it doesn't really matter. But if this gets to one
Speaker 1: and a half somehow the public comes in the Chiefs,
Speaker 1: I'm going to tease it up immediately for the Packers
Speaker 1: getting seven and a half, like immediately, I'm going to
Speaker 1: do that. But either way, I think at one sean
Speaker 1: this maybe not maybe I'll take a different tune. Looks
Speaker 1: like dig it to it, but is like a great bat.
Speaker 3: Yeah. At the surface levels, it's hard to figure out
Speaker 3: an angle for the Chiefs, which is always scary. But
Speaker 3: the Chiefs have just been horrible against the spread, five
Speaker 3: and fifteen against the spread in their last twenty. Now,
Speaker 3: certainly some of those numbers were pretty inflated, you know,
Speaker 3: as we saw against the Giants. This is more just
Speaker 3: basically like a pick them. But if you're getting down
Speaker 3: on those long style teasers where you're taking one or
Speaker 3: two point dogs and teasing them up past the key
Speaker 3: number of seven, getting it to that seven and a
Speaker 3: half or eight, and you know, Aaron Rodgers looks dialed
Speaker 3: in and they seem to get enough out of their defense.
Speaker 3: I mean, the Packers' defense played pretty strong on the
Speaker 3: road on the short week against Arizona. If they can
Speaker 3: get another decent performance, I think they should be in
Speaker 3: the driver's suit.
Speaker 1: Yeah. They look great, and I am very happy, my friend,
Speaker 1: that when right before Rogers signed and there are these
Speaker 1: rumors that he was going to retire, there were still
Speaker 1: books out there offering them at plus one seventy five
Speaker 1: to win that division, even when it became pretty apparent
Speaker 1: that he was gonna report. So it's good. I don't
Speaker 1: know the consensus line here, Sean. It's all over the place.
Speaker 1: With the Cardinals, and the forty nine ers, because books
Speaker 1: are basically like hedging their bets because they don't know
Speaker 1: whether or not Kyler. I think they're they're taking it
Speaker 1: easy with Kyler Murray. So I see it at a
Speaker 1: pick at some books. I see it at one. I
Speaker 1: don't know if you have a book that you see
Speaker 1: it at, but let's assume it's basically, I don't know one.
Speaker 1: I assume that spread is essentially the forty nine ers
Speaker 1: right now getting one again in a spot where I
Speaker 1: think the books are hedging a little bit with a
Speaker 1: total forty five. Yeah.
Speaker 3: Again, this is just clearly going to depend on whether
Speaker 3: Kyler Murray plays or whether we get.
Speaker 2: More information on Kyler Murray.
Speaker 3: I mean, my take, instant reaction and just the stuff
Speaker 3: I read early on is that I do think he
Speaker 3: will play.
Speaker 2: I'll be a little surprised.
Speaker 3: If he doesn't end up going, especially coming off the
Speaker 3: Thursday rest, but I think we'll probably have a better
Speaker 3: idea come Thursday if he's actually playing or not. And
Speaker 3: the line will tell you, because in the same way
Speaker 3: for that Vikings Cowboys game where all of a sudden
Speaker 3: the line switched from the Vikings being a you know,
Speaker 3: two three point dog to a two three point favorite.
Speaker 2: You knew immediately. You didn't have to wait for the
Speaker 2: report to come out.
Speaker 3: The people that are taking million dollar bets on this
Speaker 3: have the early action. So if you want to know
Speaker 3: whether or not to start Kyler Murray and your fantasy team,
Speaker 3: just keep an.
Speaker 2: Eye on the betting line.
Speaker 3: But I think if you can get points with the Cardinals,
Speaker 3: if you can find a book that offers points in
Speaker 3: the Cardinals, I think that's a that's a fun bet
Speaker 3: to take, especially them coming off a loss.
Speaker 1: You know, they played really tight that first game, and really,
Speaker 1: if Jimmy Garoppolo were healthy, crazy that I have to
Speaker 1: say this, but if Jimmy Garoppolo were healthy for that
Speaker 1: game where Trey Lance started, I think that the forty
Speaker 1: nine ers might have won that game. And I think
Speaker 1: Mari's going to go. I think the bigger question is
Speaker 1: how limited is it going to be? Because he avoids
Speaker 1: more sacks than any quarterback I've ever seen in my
Speaker 1: life just with how quick he is, and if his
Speaker 1: mobility is limited, that really puts a tie bosh on
Speaker 1: it a little bit. So yeah, this is just one
Speaker 1: where you gotta wait. I think to do it. Yeah.
Speaker 3: I mean I think either side, you like, if you
Speaker 3: can get points, like if you yeah, I think if
Speaker 3: you like the forty nine ers and you can get
Speaker 3: that like plus two and a half right now for
Speaker 3: them somehow, you know, I would take that as well.
Speaker 2: But I don't know.
Speaker 3: I keep leaning to thinking that they that Murray's going
Speaker 3: to play. But you bring up a great point.
Speaker 2: Arizona does seem to struggle in Levi Stadium, and the
Speaker 2: forty nine ers kind of have their number, and maybe
Speaker 2: it's going to be a situation like the Saints Bucks.
Speaker 3: Where just the Saints kind of own the Bucks for
Speaker 3: whatever reason, especially in this short, sable sized Tom Brady era,
Speaker 3: that certainly could be the case.
Speaker 1: I'm telling you, like, if this is if they if
Speaker 1: it is two and a half, because I feel like
Speaker 1: the look aheadline might have been two and a half.
Speaker 1: Maybe I don't know, but if it is that, I
Speaker 1: don't think I want it, Like, I don't I'm not
Speaker 1: going to run to take the forty nine ers or
Speaker 1: anything like that, but I just this doesn't strike me
Speaker 1: as a game where the Cardinals, even if Murray were healthy,
Speaker 1: is going to be able to just come out here
Speaker 1: and dominate like they the forty nine ers know how
Speaker 1: to play them. They play him tough, you know. So
Speaker 1: I think it's just much more of it. I'm going
Speaker 1: to watch this game for fun and stay away from it.
Speaker 2: From a interesting concept.
Speaker 1: Titan Ah, Yes, can you that? Yeah, it's weird. I've
Speaker 1: done it. I did it one time. It was weird.
Speaker 1: All odd Titans visiting the Rams. No Dereck Henry now,
Speaker 1: of course, And the spread now is seven and a
Speaker 1: half from the Rams. Total is pretty high here at
Speaker 1: fifty three and a half potential, or at least that
Speaker 1: could have been with Henry super Bowl preview here. What
Speaker 1: do you think here on Sunday Night Football primetime? Seven
Speaker 1: and a half points?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 3: Again, this one I think opened at seven and I'm
Speaker 3: surprised it's only moved at half point off to Derrick
Speaker 3: Henry news. I wouldn't this one again. I think it's
Speaker 3: seven and a half. I wouldn't be surprised if it
Speaker 3: creeps up closer to ten as we get closer to kickoff,
Speaker 3: or especially if the public's down early. I think they're
Speaker 3: just gonna look at the game and go, oh, the
Speaker 3: Rams at home against this Titans defense. They're gonna cruise.
Speaker 3: Derrick Henry isn't a part of the team. You know,
Speaker 3: he's out for the year. He's such a big part
Speaker 3: of their offense and not gonna be able to move
Speaker 3: the ball. And you know the Rams they just traded
Speaker 3: for Von Miller. I don't know yet if he's gonna
Speaker 3: be able to play. Sometimes they need like a week
Speaker 3: to figure things out. But I think with Derrick Henry
Speaker 3: going down, and we see this all the time, I'll
Speaker 3: love the Mike White game where a big player goes down,
Speaker 3: and you know that week right after the team gets
Speaker 3: up for them, you know, hey, we're bigger than just
Speaker 3: this one player. Now, the week after the emotional get
Speaker 3: up game, that's where you really see the impact. But
Speaker 3: I wouldn't be shocked if Tennessee really comes to play
Speaker 3: and quietly. Tennessee's defense, which has been so horrible, has
Speaker 3: kind of been putting together some decent games.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 3: They let up a decent amount of points against the Bills,
Speaker 3: but they got the stops when they needed them, and
Speaker 3: they held the Chiefs, which who knows if the Chiefs
Speaker 3: are even good at this point right held the Chiefs
Speaker 3: the three points at all, which seemed pretty good. So
Speaker 3: their defense has has has gotten better here certainly.
Speaker 1: And again the Colts game, you know they turned the
Speaker 1: ball over in their own territory early right there, they
Speaker 1: were down fourteen to nothing. But really, Titans, man, I mean,
Speaker 1: this is why Sean, you and I we referenced it
Speaker 1: on the first time you appeared on the podcast with
Speaker 1: the Nick Sirianni sort of bet. That was the second
Speaker 1: bet I took in the props bet draft that Sean
Speaker 1: and I are in together. The first one I took.
Speaker 1: Actually like the odds I like the most were the
Speaker 1: Titans at maybe forty to one to win the Super
Speaker 1: And part of it is because I think that the
Speaker 1: whole is better than the sum of their parts, and
Speaker 1: that they're very well coached. They find ways to stay
Speaker 1: in games, they don't panic when they go down, and
Speaker 1: I think that their defense lacks sort of the talent,
Speaker 1: and that's why I think it's taken a little while
Speaker 1: to gel. But it's a very good point that they
Speaker 1: are playing a lot better now. We don't know if
Speaker 1: Julio Jones is going to play here. You can't really
Speaker 1: stop the Rams anyway. So frankly, fifty three and a
Speaker 1: half I'm okay to go with the over, but I
Speaker 1: do lean the Titans here when you're getting more than
Speaker 1: a field goal. It is interesting though that it didn't
Speaker 1: move that much in the look aheadline. I mean, I
Speaker 1: get Adrian Peterson, you know, basically exactly.
Speaker 3: It is funny there's only I think like three or
Speaker 3: four guys that have more rushing yards all time than
Speaker 3: Derrick Henry, and they ended up signing Adrian Peterson off
Speaker 3: the street. And quick quick fantasy note if you're looking
Speaker 3: for a quarterback or you know, maybe an.
Speaker 2: Interesting DFS showdown option.
Speaker 3: I do think Tannehill, especially moving on in the rest
Speaker 3: of the Sea, could be interesting because he's quietly one
Speaker 3: of those quarterbacks that will get a couple sneaky rushing touchdowns.
Speaker 3: So now you expect them to having to throw the
Speaker 3: ball more and and I think who's gonna get those
Speaker 3: goal one carries? You sure you're gonna give some to
Speaker 3: Adrian Peterson, but I wouldn't be surprised if some of
Speaker 3: those touches inside the five end up going to Ryan Tannehill.
Speaker 3: I'lla like some bootleg stuff or some QB sneaks. So
Speaker 3: he's kind of an interesting season long fantasy player I
Speaker 3: think as well.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mentioned this the last time you were on.
Speaker 1: But if you ever want to know why, perhaps you
Speaker 1: should be taking DFS advice from Sean. You can just
Speaker 1: google his.
Speaker 2: Name and DraftKings Baby, God bless.
Speaker 1: Him, you'll learn why. I'll last game here Monday night
Speaker 1: football Bears are getting six and a half in Pittsburgh
Speaker 1: against the Steelers. Total is a minuscule for Sean. I
Speaker 1: don't know about you. There's a very clear for me
Speaker 1: time when you back Mike Tomlin led teams and time
Speaker 1: when you fade Mike Tomlin led teams and at home
Speaker 1: with kind of laying a big spread does not strike
Speaker 1: me as a time where you back Mike Tomlin.
Speaker 3: Be Yeah, it's really tough to imagine this Steelers team
Speaker 3: putting up enough points to cover any spread as a favorite, right,
Speaker 3: But then again, yeah, and I do think the Bears
Speaker 3: kind of figured out something offensively, now, granted they blew
Speaker 3: some plays defensively. I would keep an eye on Khalil
Speaker 3: max injury. I thought he was trending towards playing last week.
Speaker 3: Kind of one of the reasons I like the Bears there.
Speaker 3: He ended up being a late scratch he's dealing with
Speaker 3: a weird foot injury. But they have a team hicks back.
Speaker 3: He's a big part of their defense, and I think
Speaker 3: their defense matches up pretty decent.
Speaker 2: This to me is just gonna be an ugly slog
Speaker 2: of a game that feels like a field goal.
Speaker 3: So if you can get more than that and four, five, six,
Speaker 3: even if it gets up to seven, But I I
Speaker 3: worry that they're gonna have trouble getting action on the
Speaker 3: Steelers at six and a half. I think I think
Speaker 3: maybe the betting public is out on justin fields right now,
Speaker 3: and Pittsburgh maybe a public team.
Speaker 2: But have you seen Big Ben throw the ball?
Speaker 3: That would be my question just right before you click
Speaker 3: that Pittsburgh minus six and a half or minus seven
Speaker 3: if it gets up there, just remember, you know, just
Speaker 3: watch him throw the football in that in that Browns game.
Speaker 3: And I had the Steelers yea money line because I
Speaker 3: don't know that spot. But you're right at home laying.
Speaker 2: This is a massive number for this team right now.
Speaker 1: Way too much, way too like there's just no way
Speaker 1: and I don't feel comfortable, like hopefully and maybe it
Speaker 1: was because there was no Matt and Neggy. They they certainly.
Speaker 1: The game plan was good for Dustin Fields. It accentuated
Speaker 1: what he does well. He's good on the run, on
Speaker 1: roll designed rollouts. They had four of them. They completed
Speaker 1: all the passes, including the touchdown. He finally ran like
Speaker 1: he has use his legs more. It's okay to do that.
Speaker 1: It's okay to let the guy out. Uh So it
Speaker 1: was good to see and hopefully they do. Pittsburgh's a
Speaker 1: very strong defense obviously, so who knows if you regress
Speaker 1: a little bit, But you can't lay six and a
Speaker 1: half points man with the Steelers, and especially in the
Speaker 1: spot where they're, you know, their favorite at home in
Speaker 1: a game everybody thinks they're going to roll. No way.
Speaker 1: This is just I'm not running to take the Bears,
Speaker 1: like I'm not, like, oh god, but there's no way
Speaker 1: I could take the Steelers like I would sooner tease
Speaker 1: the Bears up to you know, twelve and a half
Speaker 1: or whatever, then I would tease them down to basically
Speaker 1: a pick.
Speaker 3: Yeah, And and they can't make this total low enough.
Speaker 3: I don't know, I don't know what yeah. Yeah, I mean,
Speaker 3: normally you don't take a lot of under forties, but
Speaker 3: this to me, feels a lot like that, like that
Speaker 3: Seattle Pittsburgh game we just saw a couple of weeks
Speaker 3: ago where it's ugly even if it gets over to.
Speaker 1: Or this browns the brown Yeah, Pittsburgh.
Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, it could be like seventeen sixteen feels like
Speaker 3: a very realistic score for this game.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, I agree. I lean the under as well. With that, Sean,
Speaker 1: always great to talk to you and catch up. I
Speaker 1: appreciate you making time in the scheduling in a difficult
Speaker 1: week for me. So just remind everybody all your good stuff,
Speaker 1: man that you're putting out. I love your content. Just
Speaker 1: mind everybody where.
Speaker 3: They Yeah, give us a follow on Twitter at Gambling
Speaker 3: Podcasts or follow me at Shawn T. Green and you
Speaker 3: can just go to Sports Gambling podcast dot com. We're
Speaker 3: putting out podcasts every day of the week covering all
Speaker 3: the sports. The flagship show, the Sports Gamling Podcast, I
Speaker 3: co host with my buddy Ryan Kramer, NFL, DFS, college football, NBA,
Speaker 3: We got an NBA show dedicated to the NBA. Just
Speaker 3: launched our NHL pod. So so much going on.
Speaker 2: If you like betting on sports, come hang out with us.
Speaker 3: It's a lot of fun sports gambling podcast dot com.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's great stuff over there, guys. You definitely should
Speaker 1: check it out. All right. In the meantime, I'm gonna
Speaker 1: take a little break a couple of days. Bogman will
Speaker 1: be back. Joe's off for the rest of the week,
Speaker 1: so Bogmin will be back doing a college football preview
Speaker 1: as he usually does. I'll be back on Thursday with
Speaker 1: our best bets for the weekend. For the NFL, I'll
Speaker 1: talk to them m