WEBVTT - Early Look at Week 9 NFL Lines (Ep. 123) 0:00:14.240 --> 0:00:17.160 Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Crows Podcast, brought 0:00:17.200 --> 0:00:19.800 to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. 0:00:19.800 --> 0:00:22.160 Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. We are 0:00:22.239 --> 0:00:26.000 heading headfirst into Week nine of the NFL season, so 0:00:26.120 --> 0:00:28.600 it's time for an early look at the week nine lines. 0:00:28.840 --> 0:00:32.120 Here to do that with me is my friend Shawn Green, 0:00:32.240 --> 0:00:34.640 the co founder of the Sports Gambling Podcast Network co 0:00:34.720 --> 0:00:37.240 host of the Sports Gambling Podcast. Find him on Twitter 0:00:37.240 --> 0:00:40.840 at shaunt Green. That's s e A n Sean. Thank 0:00:40.880 --> 0:00:41.919 you for joining me. What's up? 0:00:42.200 --> 0:00:43.080 Oh? Yeah, man. 0:00:43.560 --> 0:00:47.080 Both are teams coming off wins pretty rare this season, 0:00:47.240 --> 0:00:51.200 so I'm excited and yeah, hit a massive. 0:00:51.080 --> 0:00:52.519 Moneyline dog parlay. 0:00:52.640 --> 0:00:55.760 Dogs are really due and I felt like we finally 0:00:55.800 --> 0:00:57.400 got some dogs going last week. 0:00:57.920 --> 0:01:00.000 Yeah. I don't know if it's too early for us 0:01:00.000 --> 0:01:02.320 to buy Super Bowl tickets for the Jets for the 0:01:02.400 --> 0:01:04.800 Jets Eagles, but I'm in if you're in, So if 0:01:04.840 --> 0:01:05.639 you want to get yeah. 0:01:05.560 --> 0:01:08.120 Let's let's just buy. I'm assuming they're both gonna make it. 0:01:08.360 --> 0:01:10.160 I think it's a good bet right now. We'll get 0:01:10.200 --> 0:01:12.200 on that right after we're done with this podcast. But 0:01:12.280 --> 0:01:14.640 first we're going to look at every single line from 0:01:14.640 --> 0:01:16.560 Week nine of the NFL. Before we do, I'll remind 0:01:16.560 --> 0:01:19.400 you about the latest offer from bet MGM, which is, 0:01:19.400 --> 0:01:22.560 if you bet ten dollars and you win, you can 0:01:22.560 --> 0:01:25.160 win two hundred dollars. Pardon me, if your team scores 0:01:25.319 --> 0:01:28.399 a touchdown again bet ten dollars in any NFL team, 0:01:28.440 --> 0:01:30.920 win two hundred dollars in free bets if that team 0:01:31.000 --> 0:01:34.880 scores a touchdown. For new users, available in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, 0:01:34.880 --> 0:01:40.319 West Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Iowa, Washington, DC, Arizona, 0:01:40.360 --> 0:01:43.360 and Wyoming when you use the code Juice one hundred 0:01:43.360 --> 0:01:46.520 again Daily Juice. That's our daily podcast hosted by Matt Pearl. 0:01:46.720 --> 0:01:48.960 That is the code there for new customers. Juice one 0:01:49.040 --> 0:01:54.400 hundred over at bet MGM. All right, good sir, let's 0:01:54.440 --> 0:01:58.680 get into it here. We've got some interesting ones. No 0:01:58.800 --> 0:02:01.880 bigger game the higher weekend and Thursday night football where 0:02:01.880 --> 0:02:05.480 everyone can enjoy and be with me here with the 0:02:05.560 --> 0:02:08.919 Jets getting ten and a half, the consensus line from 0:02:08.960 --> 0:02:11.760 the Colts in Indianapolis totals forty six and a half. 0:02:11.840 --> 0:02:12.799 Any thoughts on this one? 0:02:13.680 --> 0:02:16.400 Yeah, you know, usually my default is the lean towards 0:02:16.600 --> 0:02:19.760 the better team. But a man, is this one's gonna 0:02:19.800 --> 0:02:23.320 be interesting? I wouldn't be surprised. Well, I'd like to 0:02:23.320 --> 0:02:25.040 get your take. Do you think people are gonna be 0:02:25.120 --> 0:02:28.720 riding that Mike White hype coming into this game and 0:02:29.000 --> 0:02:32.120 liking the dog or is the public just gonna go 0:02:32.320 --> 0:02:34.280 because because the Colts are coming off a loss the 0:02:34.320 --> 0:02:35.480 Jets are coming off a win. 0:02:36.040 --> 0:02:37.920 If I was taking the dog, I'd almost want the 0:02:37.960 --> 0:02:38.799 opposite there. 0:02:39.560 --> 0:02:41.720 Right, Yeah, this is like, this is the opposite of 0:02:41.760 --> 0:02:44.240 what you want for This would ordinarily you would think 0:02:44.280 --> 0:02:45.880 would be a spot to back the Jets. But such 0:02:45.880 --> 0:02:47.760 a tough loss here for the Colts and the Jets 0:02:48.040 --> 0:02:50.520 of course having that big win, I'd have to think 0:02:50.840 --> 0:02:52.440 that the public is going to be on the Jets 0:02:52.480 --> 0:02:55.480 at this one when you're over ten, right, like because 0:02:55.520 --> 0:02:58.840 of recency bias and Mike White. You know that his 0:02:58.919 --> 0:03:01.400 Hall of Fame bust is our prey, you know, being 0:03:01.680 --> 0:03:04.880 its introduction. So I would think that it's there. I 0:03:04.919 --> 0:03:07.280 think if I had to go one way or another, 0:03:07.320 --> 0:03:09.520 I mean, I think the Colts are probably gonna win 0:03:09.520 --> 0:03:11.680 this game handily. We saw by the way, right what 0:03:11.760 --> 0:03:13.880 happened the last time the Colts had their guts ripped out, 0:03:13.880 --> 0:03:17.120 which was on that Monday night football game against the Ravens. 0:03:17.120 --> 0:03:19.120 Then they played an inferior team the next week and 0:03:19.160 --> 0:03:22.280 they trounced the Texans, as they should. I think they 0:03:22.280 --> 0:03:24.679 do bounce back here at home. But ten and a 0:03:24.720 --> 0:03:27.240 half is just too much for me to take. So 0:03:28.200 --> 0:03:29.680 I don't know, man, I guess if I had to 0:03:29.680 --> 0:03:31.440 go aside, you're give me a hook on a double 0:03:31.440 --> 0:03:33.399 digit spread, like I might as well take the dog, 0:03:33.440 --> 0:03:34.760 But it's kind of a stay away from me, what 0:03:34.800 --> 0:03:34.960 do you? 0:03:35.120 --> 0:03:37.760 Yeah, Yeah, I think we'll see kind of where this 0:03:37.880 --> 0:03:40.160 line actually goes. I mean, if it gets up to thirteen, 0:03:40.240 --> 0:03:43.440 I think people are gonna pound the Jets, and kind 0:03:43.440 --> 0:03:45.280 of the same if it gets down to ten. So 0:03:45.320 --> 0:03:47.000 I think it's gonna hold tight here at ten and 0:03:47.040 --> 0:03:48.920 a half. Yeah, they want you to pay that. 0:03:48.880 --> 0:03:53.160 Extra hook to get you to get you on the Jets. Probably, 0:03:53.200 --> 0:03:55.560 so I would. I would lean Colts, but it's early. 0:03:56.560 --> 0:03:59.280 Yeah, I think realistically what everyone should do is just 0:03:59.400 --> 0:04:02.480 enjoy the game, enjoy the watch, enjoy Thursday night, but 0:04:03.240 --> 0:04:07.720 enjoy the Jets and Thursday night football. So we'll see again. 0:04:07.760 --> 0:04:09.080 I mean, the one thing if you want to think, 0:04:09.120 --> 0:04:11.520 if you want actual sort of quote unquote analysis of 0:04:11.520 --> 0:04:13.240 what you want to do here, it's gonna be really 0:04:13.240 --> 0:04:15.160 tough for the Jets to continue to sort of just 0:04:15.240 --> 0:04:18.320 lean entirely on Michael Carter because Colts are, you know, 0:04:18.560 --> 0:04:21.680 best in defensive DVOA against the run, and it's kind 0:04:21.680 --> 0:04:23.200 of you know, we'll see what Mike White can do. 0:04:23.240 --> 0:04:23.560 You can do. 0:04:23.600 --> 0:04:26.640 Another four hundred game performance might happen. 0:04:26.760 --> 0:04:28.320 You never know. I mean, Corey Davis might playing this 0:04:28.400 --> 0:04:29.840 one that will help. But yeah, it's just kind of 0:04:29.880 --> 0:04:31.840 a stay away from me. I don't expect, I like you, 0:04:31.880 --> 0:04:34.120 I don't expect the line to move to ten. But 0:04:34.200 --> 0:04:36.159 it's not gonna move, you know, I don't think I 0:04:36.160 --> 0:04:37.840 think this is where it sits. I think it's gonna 0:04:37.880 --> 0:04:39.600 just kind of stay here, all right. The Vikings are 0:04:39.640 --> 0:04:42.360 visiting the Ravens. Ravens coming off the buy at home 0:04:42.440 --> 0:04:45.000 or laying five and a half the total forty nine 0:04:45.200 --> 0:04:46.760 and a half. Kind of a dud here for the 0:04:46.800 --> 0:04:50.680 Vikings on Sunday Night Football. Obviously now a healthy Ravens team. 0:04:50.680 --> 0:04:53.279 What do you think, well, Kirk Cousins in prime time 0:04:53.480 --> 0:04:56.320 just came up in a big way, a big collapse 0:04:56.640 --> 0:04:59.680 ne g at a non conference road spot for the Vikings. 0:05:00.160 --> 0:05:03.800 I mean, if you're liking the Ravens, and that's certainly appetizing. 0:05:03.920 --> 0:05:07.120 Under six teams have been bad off the bye week. 0:05:07.200 --> 0:05:09.160 I don't know what it is, but I think if 0:05:09.200 --> 0:05:11.400 any team can break it, I think it's this Ravens team. 0:05:11.400 --> 0:05:14.719 And that felt almost like a dream crusher game for 0:05:14.839 --> 0:05:18.760 this Vikings team that just keeps losing close games or 0:05:18.800 --> 0:05:21.720 maybe games you should say, like they lost by three 0:05:21.760 --> 0:05:24.960 points to the Bengals. They you know, lost a game 0:05:24.960 --> 0:05:26.760 in Arizona they could have won with the missfield goal. 0:05:26.839 --> 0:05:29.720 They certainly could have won at home against Dallas. Negative 0:05:29.720 --> 0:05:32.920 go on the road against this Ravens team that they're 0:05:32.960 --> 0:05:36.120 looking to bounce back. So I think anything under a touchdown, 0:05:36.120 --> 0:05:39.040 it's gonna be tough to get a ton of Vikings actions. 0:05:39.120 --> 0:05:41.320 So I do think this will this may move up 0:05:41.360 --> 0:05:42.560 and as the week goes on. 0:05:43.600 --> 0:05:45.919 Yeah, I think if you like the Vikings you should 0:05:45.960 --> 0:05:48.520 wait because I can't see it going down really. But 0:05:48.720 --> 0:05:50.560 you know, the thing is, Sean, I don't know if 0:05:50.560 --> 0:05:53.520 you feel this way the Vikings and Kirk Cousins. It 0:05:53.600 --> 0:05:56.720 is always when you think you should bet on them, 0:05:56.839 --> 0:05:59.320 they fail, right and when you want to bet against them, 0:05:59.400 --> 0:06:02.280 they come through. And I have backed them on the 0:06:02.320 --> 0:06:03.960 two games. I can't remember what the second one was, 0:06:04.000 --> 0:06:05.799 but I back them against Arizona and they were getting 0:06:05.800 --> 0:06:07.280 whatever it was in that game three and a half, 0:06:07.320 --> 0:06:09.480 four and a half, so they they covered the other 0:06:09.520 --> 0:06:11.960 one that I went with them. But they're ugly when 0:06:11.960 --> 0:06:14.440 you have to take them. So right now, I certainly 0:06:14.560 --> 0:06:17.119 lean the Ravens for sure, because I think, just looking 0:06:17.120 --> 0:06:19.320 at the way this game is gonna unfold, it's gotta 0:06:19.360 --> 0:06:21.440 favor them. And we'll see if Justin Jefferson, by the way, 0:06:21.520 --> 0:06:22.960 is okay, because I know it was a little banged 0:06:23.000 --> 0:06:25.760 up there at the end. But I feel like when 0:06:25.800 --> 0:06:27.520 I dig into this and I get to Thursday and 0:06:27.520 --> 0:06:29.359 I'm thinking about it, it's gonna be like, man, this 0:06:29.440 --> 0:06:31.440 is the spot where you know, Mike Zimmer and Kirk 0:06:31.480 --> 0:06:34.159 Cousins figure out a way to keep this game much 0:06:34.200 --> 0:06:37.360 closer than they should. So the go ahead side, Oh no, I. 0:06:37.320 --> 0:06:37.880 Was gonna say. 0:06:37.880 --> 0:06:41.839 Also, just a really really interesting game from DFS as well. 0:06:41.880 --> 0:06:45.400 These these non conference games can get kind of interesting 0:06:45.400 --> 0:06:48.359 and I wouldn't be surprised if if Lamar is a 0:06:48.400 --> 0:06:52.200 fun play and the Ravens have had issues on their defense, 0:06:52.240 --> 0:06:55.200 for defense that's historically really good. I mean, we saw 0:06:55.240 --> 0:06:57.159 the Bengals put up a bunch of points against them, 0:06:57.200 --> 0:06:59.960 so kind of be interesting to see what happens here. 0:07:00.640 --> 0:07:03.360 Yeah, definitely a game I'll be watching, regardless of any 0:07:03.880 --> 0:07:06.599 betting or fantasy impact. Just a fun game to watch. 0:07:06.680 --> 0:07:09.320 But yeah, bottom line is, I think if you like 0:07:09.400 --> 0:07:11.520 the Vikings, it's something you can wait because I don't 0:07:11.560 --> 0:07:15.040 expect this to get much worse. Browns are visiting the Bengals. 0:07:15.080 --> 0:07:17.840 The Bengals are currently laying three total of forty seven, 0:07:17.920 --> 0:07:20.880 but tough losses here for both teams. What do you 0:07:20.880 --> 0:07:22.520 think we see here with the trade that line, by 0:07:22.520 --> 0:07:24.120 the way, we'll say we'll be honest. Recording this little 0:07:24.160 --> 0:07:27.360 later this week had some scheduling issues for me, So 0:07:27.640 --> 0:07:30.760 no trades, no big things here that moved. OBJ is 0:07:30.760 --> 0:07:31.679 still with the Browns. 0:07:31.920 --> 0:07:34.280 Is Dad's still a cutting up game film of him 0:07:34.280 --> 0:07:34.920 being wide out? 0:07:36.640 --> 0:07:39.920 Dad is not happy, I think, but look it is. 0:07:39.960 --> 0:07:42.240 It's status quo here for both these teams. So what 0:07:42.240 --> 0:07:43.760 do you think here with the Bengals leangth three in 0:07:43.800 --> 0:07:44.560 the divisional game. 0:07:45.000 --> 0:07:47.800 Yeah, no, I mean I feel like this is you know, 0:07:47.920 --> 0:07:49.480 if I had a guess to spread coming into it, 0:07:49.480 --> 0:07:53.640 I would have guessed three. Both pretty even teams, division matchup, 0:07:53.760 --> 0:07:56.640 both coming off losses. I think this is just kind 0:07:56.640 --> 0:07:59.400 of who do you like more as a team long term? 0:07:59.440 --> 0:08:01.840 And who do you thinks to as simple as it sounds, 0:08:01.880 --> 0:08:03.600 who do you think the better team is? Do you 0:08:03.840 --> 0:08:07.320 like this Cleveland team? And I'm still kind of out 0:08:07.320 --> 0:08:12.080 on Cleveland with Odell and that labroom issue again, I 0:08:12.120 --> 0:08:14.280 mean or sorry, not Odell Baker. 0:08:14.320 --> 0:08:15.800 I mean, Odell's his own issue, but. 0:08:16.200 --> 0:08:21.239 Yeah, yeah, Baker just doesn't look right. That offense doesn't 0:08:21.240 --> 0:08:24.840 look right, even getting chubbed back, they just did not 0:08:25.120 --> 0:08:27.640 look good. And you know, if you can't put up 0:08:27.640 --> 0:08:31.280 more points against Pittsburgh at home, and Bengals really are 0:08:31.320 --> 0:08:32.760 gonna be jacked up for this spot. 0:08:32.840 --> 0:08:35.160 So I think it's gonna be tough for the Browns. 0:08:36.120 --> 0:08:38.920 I kind of like the over, and you know, I 0:08:39.160 --> 0:08:41.440 know it's a divisional game where these two and you know, 0:08:41.520 --> 0:08:44.280 Cleveland obviously played it pretty defensive game and the Bengals 0:08:44.280 --> 0:08:47.160 have had a good defense all year. Long, unless, of course, 0:08:47.400 --> 0:08:49.240 Hall of Famer Mike White is there where he can 0:08:49.280 --> 0:08:51.600 just totally tear him up. But I do expect the 0:08:51.600 --> 0:08:54.880 Bengals offense is really clicking right now. You know, the 0:08:54.920 --> 0:08:57.960 passing game is working well, and even if they have 0:08:58.000 --> 0:09:01.040 trouble running the ball, which Cleveland you know, a very 0:09:01.080 --> 0:09:04.559 tough run defense. Although Najie Harris was pretty good last week, 0:09:05.040 --> 0:09:06.439 I do think that the Bengals are going to be 0:09:06.440 --> 0:09:08.720 able to move the ball. And I think Cleveland knows. 0:09:08.880 --> 0:09:11.680 I mean, Mayfield wasn't terrible last week. Their offense has 0:09:11.720 --> 0:09:14.560 just seemed out of sorts the entire year, right, I 0:09:14.559 --> 0:09:17.480 mean Odell and Baker obviously, as his dad knows, I 0:09:17.520 --> 0:09:20.319 can't get on the same page. Landry is hit or 0:09:20.360 --> 0:09:22.560 miss a little bit, but I kind of expect points 0:09:22.559 --> 0:09:24.520 here to go. There's some forty six and a half 0:09:24.840 --> 0:09:27.960 out there. I feel like conventional wisdom suggests that it'll 0:09:28.000 --> 0:09:30.839 be a close defensive game. But I do think actually 0:09:30.880 --> 0:09:33.000 that both teams are going to score. I kind of expect, 0:09:33.600 --> 0:09:36.160 after last week's tough game against the Steilers, where they 0:09:36.200 --> 0:09:38.600 didn't do much offensively, for the Browns to come out 0:09:38.600 --> 0:09:41.720 here firing some creative plays. Be able to move the 0:09:41.720 --> 0:09:43.920 ball a little bit, so I personally lean the over, 0:09:44.400 --> 0:09:45.800 but I don't think it's something. I don't think it's 0:09:45.800 --> 0:09:47.360 going to move all that much from where it is. 0:09:47.840 --> 0:09:51.400 Bill's continue their trend of just laying, you know, more 0:09:51.400 --> 0:09:53.559 in a touchdown here. Fourteen and a half as they 0:09:53.640 --> 0:09:55.680 visit Jacksonville. Total forty nine. 0:09:56.440 --> 0:09:59.080 Yeah, I mean, I guess this is about right. 0:09:59.120 --> 0:10:01.920 And it's crazy to think this spread is kind of 0:10:02.000 --> 0:10:07.440 low for this Jags Bills team, and the Bills aren't 0:10:07.440 --> 0:10:08.800 afraid to put it on teams. 0:10:08.960 --> 0:10:11.240 I know they kind of let Miami hang around. 0:10:11.760 --> 0:10:14.000 And thankfully because I was on the Bills at like 0:10:14.040 --> 0:10:16.720 thirteen and a half, Josh Allen had that there was 0:10:16.760 --> 0:10:18.400 like a point where like are they gonna run it 0:10:18.440 --> 0:10:20.720 out or you know what's gonna happen. Then he took 0:10:20.760 --> 0:10:23.120 that bootleg into the end zone and got the cover. 0:10:23.480 --> 0:10:25.960 A bit of a sweat there, But I think it's 0:10:25.960 --> 0:10:28.760 gonna be tough to get money on the Jags, and 0:10:28.800 --> 0:10:31.400 I could see something similar to what we saw with 0:10:31.480 --> 0:10:34.080 the Houston game last week, where it starts at fourteen 0:10:34.120 --> 0:10:36.920 and a half, creeps up as the week goes along, 0:10:37.040 --> 0:10:40.520 gets to sixteen and a half, and I'm sure everyone 0:10:40.640 --> 0:10:43.520 saw that that ended up being a bad beat for people, 0:10:43.559 --> 0:10:46.760 because the Rams ended up winning thirty eight twenty two. 0:10:46.880 --> 0:10:49.200 So if you're gonna you know again, if you're gonna 0:10:49.240 --> 0:10:51.679 take the favorite, generally take it early in the week. 0:10:51.720 --> 0:10:54.439 If you're gonna take the doll you can wait, because 0:10:54.520 --> 0:10:56.280 I think everyone's gonna be putting the bills in the 0:10:56.360 --> 0:10:59.360 teas or taking the bills instinctively. 0:10:59.679 --> 0:11:03.240 And yeah, if you like the Jags, which interesting to. 0:11:03.280 --> 0:11:06.200 Like the Jags at any point, but I would just 0:11:06.240 --> 0:11:08.360 hold off because you might get closer to a seventeen. 0:11:09.280 --> 0:11:11.800 That's exactly right. If you like the Bills, hit it out, 0:11:11.920 --> 0:11:14.240 because fourteen and a half, it's actually fourteen at my 0:11:14.280 --> 0:11:17.079 book DraftKings fourteen and a half. Pretty much everywhere, that's 0:11:17.120 --> 0:11:19.800 the best line you're going to see, I expect, so 0:11:20.280 --> 0:11:24.240 because there's just you can't beck the Jaguars right now, 0:11:24.280 --> 0:11:26.720 no matter what mo people who work on models and 0:11:26.720 --> 0:11:28.280 stuff like that, and that's what they bet and the 0:11:28.320 --> 0:11:31.960 syndicates like, no matter what it says like, there are teams, 0:11:32.200 --> 0:11:33.880 and I think the Jaguars are one of those teams 0:11:33.960 --> 0:11:36.160 because of how poorly coached they are. Because of how 0:11:36.240 --> 0:11:40.760 few adjustments that they make, you know, at halftime that 0:11:40.880 --> 0:11:42.880 just kind of break the models to the extent where 0:11:42.920 --> 0:11:44.720 I imagine that there's going to be so much money 0:11:44.760 --> 0:11:46.920 coming in here on the Bills, and I agree, I 0:11:46.920 --> 0:11:50.760 think it's going to creep up to fifteen, sixteen, sixteen 0:11:50.800 --> 0:11:53.439 and a half. And that's where you get a little worried. 0:11:53.640 --> 0:11:55.360 Like we saw with the Rams, a game that they 0:11:55.400 --> 0:11:57.520 totally dominated and probably could have won by fifty five 0:11:57.559 --> 0:11:59.480 points had they get their foot on the gas. So 0:12:00.320 --> 0:12:02.880 you like the Jags waited out, you like the Bills 0:12:03.360 --> 0:12:04.120 go now. 0:12:04.040 --> 0:12:07.600 Yeah, that's fourteen at DraftKings at minus one ten is 0:12:08.280 --> 0:12:12.040 is pretty appetizing right now, Urban Meyer, he breaks a 0:12:12.080 --> 0:12:16.800 lot of models. Yeah, And I mean you this Jags team, 0:12:16.800 --> 0:12:18.600 and granted it was a weird travel spot for them, 0:12:18.640 --> 0:12:21.880 but they led up thirty one points to Gino Smith, 0:12:22.000 --> 0:12:25.200 a lad team, So I mean that says it all 0:12:25.320 --> 0:12:28.400 right there for me, and I just it's gonna be 0:12:28.440 --> 0:12:30.160 tough for them to slow down this Bill's offense. 0:12:30.960 --> 0:12:34.439 I will not hear dispara dream remarks about my former 0:12:34.559 --> 0:12:37.160 jet Gino Smith, but I will say that that's also 0:12:37.200 --> 0:12:40.360 coming off a bye right, Like what happens when you're 0:12:40.360 --> 0:12:44.720 not by Yeah, and now you've got to take on right, Okay, 0:12:44.760 --> 0:12:49.000 Broncos visiting the Cowboys. The Cowboys are laying nine and 0:12:49.080 --> 0:12:52.320 a half and the total is forty nine and a half. 0:12:52.360 --> 0:12:58.240 I will say that legitimately three seconds before the word 0:12:58.240 --> 0:13:00.400 Broncos came out, I did see something come across the 0:13:00.440 --> 0:13:02.680 wire that Noah Fant has been placed on the COVID 0:13:03.000 --> 0:13:05.760 nineteen reserve list. I don't know whether or not that 0:13:05.880 --> 0:13:08.160 means he's gonna miss the game necessarily, but they could 0:13:08.200 --> 0:13:11.319 be down their tight end here for this game. Broncos 0:13:11.360 --> 0:13:14.280 again getting nine and a half here in Dallas and 0:13:14.320 --> 0:13:16.160 the totals forty nine and a half? What do you think? 0:13:16.400 --> 0:13:19.360 Yeah? This is and again this is the classic. 0:13:19.480 --> 0:13:21.560 Like if you like the favorite, hopefully you bet it 0:13:21.960 --> 0:13:24.199 at the opening number, because I think this opened as 0:13:24.240 --> 0:13:27.880 low as seven. Now, obviously the Broncos trained away von Miller, 0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:31.720 and von Miller shouldn't him being playing or not shouldn't 0:13:31.760 --> 0:13:33.760 really move the line, but I think it does signal 0:13:33.800 --> 0:13:36.600 to people like kind of waving the white flag here. 0:13:37.040 --> 0:13:39.280 Now you have a non conference spot for this Broncos 0:13:39.320 --> 0:13:42.720 team going up against the Cowboys who will probably play 0:13:42.800 --> 0:13:43.320 deck again. 0:13:43.360 --> 0:13:45.719 He looked pretty healthy. I was surprised he didn't go there. 0:13:45.760 --> 0:13:46.720 They played it safe. 0:13:46.800 --> 0:13:50.720 They you know, got the win with Cooper rush guy 0:13:50.920 --> 0:13:55.079 guy looks like Carson Wentz's stunt double and they just 0:13:55.559 --> 0:13:58.960 they just I mean, it's insane that they're seven and 0:13:59.080 --> 0:14:02.959 zero again to spread. You think at some point this 0:14:03.000 --> 0:14:05.880 is gonna run out, and maybe this Broncos team is 0:14:05.920 --> 0:14:08.400 the team to do it, just because Teddy Bridgewater is 0:14:08.440 --> 0:14:11.920 a machine against the spread on the road. I think 0:14:11.920 --> 0:14:15.800 it's as high as like seventy percent. So I had 0:14:16.000 --> 0:14:18.800 the Broncos as one of my locks last week. Ugly game, 0:14:18.840 --> 0:14:22.760 but they got it done. I mean, von Miller by 0:14:22.760 --> 0:14:27.080 all accounts, him leaving kind of set some bad vibes 0:14:27.120 --> 0:14:29.600 for this locker room. So it'll be in an interesting 0:14:29.640 --> 0:14:31.960 emotional spot I think for this Broncos team with no 0:14:32.120 --> 0:14:35.520 von Miller and the Cowboys are just in cruise control 0:14:35.600 --> 0:14:35.960 right now. 0:14:36.880 --> 0:14:39.000 Did you see the story on that, like the reason 0:14:39.080 --> 0:14:40.320 why they traded him. 0:14:40.520 --> 0:14:41.080 I heard. 0:14:41.240 --> 0:14:43.800 I heard there was stuff about like a Halloween party 0:14:44.120 --> 0:14:46.080 that he got really mad that some of the guys 0:14:46.080 --> 0:14:47.840 didn't chip in for the Halloween party. 0:14:47.880 --> 0:14:49.240 Is that what you're referring. 0:14:48.880 --> 0:14:53.080 To that's correct, apparently, and it like infected the locker 0:14:53.160 --> 0:14:55.240 room and everybody was really pissed at each other, and 0:14:55.240 --> 0:14:57.360 the Broncos were like, we're not resigning him anyway, so 0:14:57.480 --> 0:14:59.760 we're just gonna shoot them out. I don't know whether 0:14:59.840 --> 0:15:02.120 or not that is true. I cannot vouch for the 0:15:02.240 --> 0:15:06.240 veracity of that story, but nevertheless, it's fun to talk 0:15:06.280 --> 0:15:09.960 about for a second. Yeah, it feels like for me that, 0:15:10.520 --> 0:15:12.000 I mean, there is a ten out there, by the way, 0:15:12.040 --> 0:15:14.760 and a couple spot points bet for example. So my 0:15:14.880 --> 0:15:18.200 guess is it will probably get to ten because nobody 0:15:18.240 --> 0:15:20.080 wants to bet on the Broncos, and everybody's gonna want 0:15:20.080 --> 0:15:22.160 to bend the Cowboys, especially now Dak should be back. 0:15:22.200 --> 0:15:24.600 You're right, everything suggested he is going to come back, 0:15:24.760 --> 0:15:27.160 not that they need him with you know, Cooper rush there. 0:15:27.200 --> 0:15:30.000 But I do think that this is a spot where 0:15:30.040 --> 0:15:32.760 it strikes me that I want to back the Broncos 0:15:33.480 --> 0:15:38.000 just because they I can't figure the Broncos out, Sean, 0:15:38.040 --> 0:15:39.720 I don't know about you, like I can't get a 0:15:39.760 --> 0:15:42.120 read on what they are, and they've they've been decimated 0:15:42.160 --> 0:15:46.560 with injuries, you know, to their linebackers, so suddenly they 0:15:46.600 --> 0:15:49.640 became very vulnerable against the run. I think Bryce Callan 0:15:49.680 --> 0:15:51.160 may have been injured in this one too, so I 0:15:51.200 --> 0:15:52.720 need to check on the you know, cause you're not 0:15:52.720 --> 0:15:54.920 gonna be able to hold down all these receivers. But 0:15:55.440 --> 0:15:57.880 it does strike me as a spot where they's sort 0:15:57.880 --> 0:16:00.520 of classic, like at some point we got to sell 0:16:00.560 --> 0:16:03.240 the Cowboys, right, at some point they're not this good. 0:16:03.600 --> 0:16:05.040 This feels like it might be it, but I would 0:16:05.080 --> 0:16:06.800 wait because I don't think it's going to go down 0:16:06.880 --> 0:16:09.120 like the spread's gonna, you know, move towards seven. I think, 0:16:09.120 --> 0:16:11.200 if anything, it's going to get to ten, maybe even 0:16:11.240 --> 0:16:11.760 higher than that. 0:16:11.840 --> 0:16:15.440 Well, and if their teaser betters in the audience, it's 0:16:15.800 --> 0:16:17.800 it's been a great year to be betting those teases. 0:16:18.480 --> 0:16:21.200 I think, you know, double digit favorites had won outright, 0:16:21.280 --> 0:16:24.840 something like twenty seven and oh actually going into that 0:16:25.640 --> 0:16:27.440 Jets Bengals, I think there were like twenty seven to 0:16:27.560 --> 0:16:29.680 ZH straight up. So I do think they're gonna move this, 0:16:31.000 --> 0:16:33.880 of course, to ten and a half. I think similar 0:16:33.960 --> 0:16:36.880 to what the KC line was, because then they get 0:16:36.920 --> 0:16:39.680 teaser protection. I know because I had I had the 0:16:39.760 --> 0:16:42.480 Chiefs as my last leg in the tease, and I 0:16:42.480 --> 0:16:44.520 don't know why I'm still on the Chiefs. It was 0:16:44.560 --> 0:16:47.320 more just being anti the Giants. Although the Giants just 0:16:47.400 --> 0:16:49.960 keep showing up on the road for some reason. I 0:16:50.280 --> 0:16:52.640 don't I don't understand why there's so much better on 0:16:52.680 --> 0:16:53.640 the road than they are at home. 0:16:53.880 --> 0:16:54.920 So I think you're right. 0:16:55.000 --> 0:16:57.160 It gets to at least ten, probably ten and a 0:16:57.240 --> 0:17:00.640 half because they're protecting it and says like six p teesus. 0:17:01.600 --> 0:17:04.679 Yeah, I agree, that's where we're going. Texans are visiting 0:17:04.720 --> 0:17:09.159 the Dolphins. You know, Deshaun Watson is still on the 0:17:09.200 --> 0:17:11.080 Texans for now. Could have been Q being for the 0:17:11.080 --> 0:17:13.520 other team if you would believe the rumors early on. 0:17:13.960 --> 0:17:17.000 The Dolphins are currently laying six and a half with 0:17:17.119 --> 0:17:19.960 a total of forty six. This is a weird game 0:17:20.000 --> 0:17:22.040 for me, Sean, How do you feel about it? Yeah? 0:17:22.119 --> 0:17:26.399 I mean a one win Dolphins team, like, what are 0:17:26.400 --> 0:17:30.560 they won in seven and they're laying six. That's to 0:17:30.680 --> 0:17:33.840 me is just crazy. But then on the other side, 0:17:34.160 --> 0:17:37.520 how do you talk yourself into taking the Texans at 0:17:37.520 --> 0:17:40.480 any point? I'm still holding out hope that my boy 0:17:40.840 --> 0:17:44.600 Tyrod Taylor. Yeah, it sounded like he was maybe close 0:17:44.720 --> 0:17:48.600 last week. But again, what are the Texans playing for? Like, 0:17:48.680 --> 0:17:51.720 do they I mean, you know, obviously Tyrod isn't the 0:17:52.320 --> 0:17:54.600 man of the future. Do they want to see what 0:17:54.640 --> 0:17:56.600 they have with Davis Mills? I feel like we kind 0:17:56.600 --> 0:17:58.600 of already know what we have with Davis Mills. 0:17:58.880 --> 0:17:59.720 And now Miami. 0:18:00.160 --> 0:18:02.080 By all accounts, it seemed like they wanted to get 0:18:02.080 --> 0:18:04.959 the trade done. The contingency was that he would have 0:18:05.000 --> 0:18:09.280 to settle these civil lawsuits, according to reports, and for 0:18:09.320 --> 0:18:13.399 whatever reason, that didn't happen. So now Miami's in a 0:18:13.480 --> 0:18:16.679 weird spot because clearly, I mean, how committed can they 0:18:16.720 --> 0:18:18.480 actually beat a Tuah? 0:18:18.760 --> 0:18:20.399 It's clearly into his head? 0:18:20.480 --> 0:18:22.520