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Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Crows Podcast, brought

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Speaker 1: to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris.

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Speaker 1: Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. We are

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Speaker 1: heading headfirst into Week nine of the NFL season, so

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Speaker 1: it's time for an early look at the week nine lines.

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Speaker 1: Here to do that with me is my friend Shawn Green,

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Speaker 1: the co founder of the Sports Gambling Podcast Network co

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Speaker 1: host of the Sports Gambling Podcast. Find him on Twitter

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Speaker 1: at shaunt Green. That's s e A n Sean. Thank

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Speaker 1: you for joining me. What's up?

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Speaker 2: Oh? Yeah, man.

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Speaker 3: Both are teams coming off wins pretty rare this season,

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Speaker 3: so I'm excited and yeah, hit a massive.

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Speaker 2: Moneyline dog parlay.

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Speaker 3: Dogs are really due and I felt like we finally

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Speaker 3: got some dogs going last week.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I don't know if it's too early for us

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Speaker 1: to buy Super Bowl tickets for the Jets for the

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Speaker 1: Jets Eagles, but I'm in if you're in, So if

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Speaker 1: you want to get yeah.

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Speaker 2: Let's let's just buy. I'm assuming they're both gonna make it.

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Speaker 1: I think it's a good bet right now. We'll get

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Speaker 1: on that right after we're done with this podcast. But

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Speaker 1: first we're going to look at every single line from

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Speaker 1: Week nine of the NFL. Before we do, I'll remind

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Speaker 1: hundred over at bet MGM. All right, good sir, let's

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Speaker 1: get into it here. We've got some interesting ones. No

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Speaker 1: bigger game the higher weekend and Thursday night football where

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Speaker 1: everyone can enjoy and be with me here with the

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Speaker 1: Jets getting ten and a half, the consensus line from

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Speaker 1: the Colts in Indianapolis totals forty six and a half.

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Speaker 1: Any thoughts on this one?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, usually my default is the lean towards

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Speaker 3: the better team. But a man, is this one's gonna

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Speaker 3: be interesting? I wouldn't be surprised. Well, I'd like to

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Speaker 3: get your take. Do you think people are gonna be

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Speaker 3: riding that Mike White hype coming into this game and

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Speaker 3: liking the dog or is the public just gonna go

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Speaker 3: because because the Colts are coming off a loss the

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Speaker 3: Jets are coming off a win.

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Speaker 2: If I was taking the dog, I'd almost want the

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Speaker 2: opposite there.

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Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, this is like, this is the opposite of

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Speaker 1: what you want for This would ordinarily you would think

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Speaker 1: would be a spot to back the Jets. But such

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Speaker 1: a tough loss here for the Colts and the Jets

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Speaker 1: of course having that big win, I'd have to think

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Speaker 1: that the public is going to be on the Jets

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Speaker 1: at this one when you're over ten, right, like because

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Speaker 1: of recency bias and Mike White. You know that his

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Speaker 1: Hall of Fame bust is our prey, you know, being

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Speaker 1: its introduction. So I would think that it's there. I

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Speaker 1: think if I had to go one way or another,

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think the Colts are probably gonna win

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Speaker 1: this game handily. We saw by the way, right what

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Speaker 1: happened the last time the Colts had their guts ripped out,

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Speaker 1: which was on that Monday night football game against the Ravens.

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Speaker 1: Then they played an inferior team the next week and

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Speaker 1: they trounced the Texans, as they should. I think they

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Speaker 1: do bounce back here at home. But ten and a

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Speaker 1: half is just too much for me to take. So

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Speaker 1: I don't know, man, I guess if I had to

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Speaker 1: go aside, you're give me a hook on a double

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Speaker 1: digit spread, like I might as well take the dog,

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Speaker 1: But it's kind of a stay away from me, what

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Speaker 1: do you?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Yeah, I think we'll see kind of where this

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Speaker 3: line actually goes. I mean, if it gets up to thirteen,

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Speaker 3: I think people are gonna pound the Jets, and kind

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Speaker 3: of the same if it gets down to ten. So

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Speaker 3: I think it's gonna hold tight here at ten and

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Speaker 3: a half. Yeah, they want you to pay that.

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Speaker 2: Extra hook to get you to get you on the Jets. Probably,

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Speaker 2: so I would. I would lean Colts, but it's early.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think realistically what everyone should do is just

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Speaker 1: enjoy the game, enjoy the watch, enjoy Thursday night, but

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Speaker 1: enjoy the Jets and Thursday night football. So we'll see again.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the one thing if you want to think,

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Speaker 1: if you want actual sort of quote unquote analysis of

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Speaker 1: what you want to do here, it's gonna be really

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Speaker 1: tough for the Jets to continue to sort of just

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Speaker 1: lean entirely on Michael Carter because Colts are, you know,

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Speaker 1: best in defensive DVOA against the run, and it's kind

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Speaker 1: of you know, we'll see what Mike White can do.

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Speaker 1: You can do.

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Speaker 2: Another four hundred game performance might happen.

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Speaker 1: You never know. I mean, Corey Davis might playing this

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Speaker 1: one that will help. But yeah, it's just kind of

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Speaker 1: a stay away from me. I don't expect, I like you,

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Speaker 1: I don't expect the line to move to ten. But

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Speaker 1: it's not gonna move, you know, I don't think I

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Speaker 1: think this is where it sits. I think it's gonna

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Speaker 1: just kind of stay here, all right. The Vikings are

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Speaker 1: visiting the Ravens. Ravens coming off the buy at home

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Speaker 1: or laying five and a half the total forty nine

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Speaker 1: and a half. Kind of a dud here for the

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Speaker 1: Vikings on Sunday Night Football. Obviously now a healthy Ravens team.

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Speaker 3: What do you think, well, Kirk Cousins in prime time

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Speaker 3: just came up in a big way, a big collapse

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Speaker 3: ne g at a non conference road spot for the Vikings.

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Speaker 3: I mean, if you're liking the Ravens, and that's certainly appetizing.

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Speaker 3: Under six teams have been bad off the bye week.

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Speaker 3: I don't know what it is, but I think if

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Speaker 3: any team can break it, I think it's this Ravens team.

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Speaker 3: And that felt almost like a dream crusher game for

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Speaker 3: this Vikings team that just keeps losing close games or

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Speaker 3: maybe games you should say, like they lost by three

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Speaker 3: points to the Bengals. They you know, lost a game

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Speaker 3: in Arizona they could have won with the missfield goal.

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Speaker 3: They certainly could have won at home against Dallas. Negative

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Speaker 3: go on the road against this Ravens team that they're

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Speaker 3: looking to bounce back. So I think anything under a touchdown,

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Speaker 3: it's gonna be tough to get a ton of Vikings actions.

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Speaker 3: So I do think this will this may move up

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Speaker 3: and as the week goes on.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think if you like the Vikings you should

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Speaker 1: wait because I can't see it going down really. But

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Speaker 1: you know, the thing is, Sean, I don't know if

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Speaker 1: you feel this way the Vikings and Kirk Cousins. It

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Speaker 1: is always when you think you should bet on them,

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Speaker 1: they fail, right and when you want to bet against them,

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Speaker 1: they come through. And I have backed them on the

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Speaker 1: two games. I can't remember what the second one was,

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Speaker 1: but I back them against Arizona and they were getting

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Speaker 1: whatever it was in that game three and a half,

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Speaker 1: four and a half, so they they covered the other

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Speaker 1: one that I went with them. But they're ugly when

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Speaker 1: you have to take them. So right now, I certainly

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Speaker 1: lean the Ravens for sure, because I think, just looking

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Speaker 1: at the way this game is gonna unfold, it's gotta

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Speaker 1: favor them. And we'll see if Justin Jefferson, by the way,

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Speaker 1: is okay, because I know it was a little banged

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Speaker 1: up there at the end. But I feel like when

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Speaker 1: I dig into this and I get to Thursday and

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Speaker 1: I'm thinking about it, it's gonna be like, man, this

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Speaker 1: is the spot where you know, Mike Zimmer and Kirk

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Speaker 1: Cousins figure out a way to keep this game much

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Speaker 1: closer than they should. So the go ahead side, Oh no, I.

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Speaker 2: Was gonna say.

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Speaker 3: Also, just a really really interesting game from DFS as well.

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Speaker 3: These these non conference games can get kind of interesting

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Speaker 3: and I wouldn't be surprised if if Lamar is a

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Speaker 3: fun play and the Ravens have had issues on their defense,

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Speaker 3: for defense that's historically really good. I mean, we saw

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Speaker 3: the Bengals put up a bunch of points against them,

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Speaker 3: so kind of be interesting to see what happens here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely a game I'll be watching, regardless of any

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Speaker 1: betting or fantasy impact. Just a fun game to watch.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, bottom line is, I think if you like

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Speaker 1: the Vikings, it's something you can wait because I don't

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Speaker 1: expect this to get much worse. Browns are visiting the Bengals.

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Speaker 1: The Bengals are currently laying three total of forty seven,

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Speaker 1: but tough losses here for both teams. What do you

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Speaker 1: think we see here with the trade that line, by

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Speaker 1: the way, we'll say we'll be honest. Recording this little

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Speaker 1: later this week had some scheduling issues for me, So

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Speaker 1: no trades, no big things here that moved. OBJ is

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Speaker 1: still with the Browns.

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Speaker 3: Is Dad's still a cutting up game film of him

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Speaker 3: being wide out?

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Speaker 1: Dad is not happy, I think, but look it is.

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Speaker 1: It's status quo here for both these teams. So what

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Speaker 1: do you think here with the Bengals leangth three in

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Speaker 1: the divisional game.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, no, I mean I feel like this is you know,

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Speaker 3: if I had a guess to spread coming into it,

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Speaker 3: I would have guessed three. Both pretty even teams, division matchup,

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Speaker 3: both coming off losses. I think this is just kind

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Speaker 3: of who do you like more as a team long term?

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Speaker 3: And who do you thinks to as simple as it sounds,

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Speaker 3: who do you think the better team is? Do you

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Speaker 3: like this Cleveland team? And I'm still kind of out

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Speaker 3: on Cleveland with Odell and that labroom issue again, I

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Speaker 3: mean or sorry, not Odell Baker.

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Speaker 2: I mean, Odell's his own issue, but.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, Baker just doesn't look right. That offense doesn't

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Speaker 3: look right, even getting chubbed back, they just did not

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Speaker 3: look good. And you know, if you can't put up

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Speaker 3: more points against Pittsburgh at home, and Bengals really are

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Speaker 3: gonna be jacked up for this spot.

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Speaker 2: So I think it's gonna be tough for the Browns.

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Speaker 1: I kind of like the over, and you know, I

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Speaker 1: know it's a divisional game where these two and you know,

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Speaker 1: Cleveland obviously played it pretty defensive game and the Bengals

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Speaker 1: have had a good defense all year. Long, unless, of course,

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Speaker 1: Hall of Famer Mike White is there where he can

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Speaker 1: just totally tear him up. But I do expect the

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Speaker 1: Bengals offense is really clicking right now. You know, the

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Speaker 1: passing game is working well, and even if they have

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Speaker 1: trouble running the ball, which Cleveland you know, a very

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Speaker 1: tough run defense. Although Najie Harris was pretty good last week,

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Speaker 1: I do think that the Bengals are going to be

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Speaker 1: able to move the ball. And I think Cleveland knows.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Mayfield wasn't terrible last week. Their offense has

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Speaker 1: just seemed out of sorts the entire year, right, I

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Speaker 1: mean Odell and Baker obviously, as his dad knows, I

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Speaker 1: can't get on the same page. Landry is hit or

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Speaker 1: miss a little bit, but I kind of expect points

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Speaker 1: here to go. There's some forty six and a half

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Speaker 1: out there. I feel like conventional wisdom suggests that it'll

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Speaker 1: be a close defensive game. But I do think actually

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Speaker 1: that both teams are going to score. I kind of expect,

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Speaker 1: after last week's tough game against the Steilers, where they

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Speaker 1: didn't do much offensively, for the Browns to come out

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Speaker 1: here firing some creative plays. Be able to move the

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Speaker 1: ball a little bit, so I personally lean the over,

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Speaker 1: but I don't think it's something. I don't think it's

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Speaker 1: going to move all that much from where it is.

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Speaker 1: Bill's continue their trend of just laying, you know, more

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Speaker 1: in a touchdown here. Fourteen and a half as they

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Speaker 1: visit Jacksonville. Total forty nine.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I guess this is about right.

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Speaker 3: And it's crazy to think this spread is kind of

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Speaker 3: low for this Jags Bills team, and the Bills aren't

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Speaker 3: afraid to put it on teams.

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Speaker 2: I know they kind of let Miami hang around.

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Speaker 3: And thankfully because I was on the Bills at like

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Speaker 3: thirteen and a half, Josh Allen had that there was

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Speaker 3: like a point where like are they gonna run it

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Speaker 3: out or you know what's gonna happen. Then he took

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Speaker 3: that bootleg into the end zone and got the cover.

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Speaker 3: A bit of a sweat there, But I think it's

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Speaker 3: gonna be tough to get money on the Jags, and

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Speaker 3: I could see something similar to what we saw with

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Speaker 3: the Houston game last week, where it starts at fourteen

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Speaker 3: and a half, creeps up as the week goes along,

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Speaker 3: gets to sixteen and a half, and I'm sure everyone

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Speaker 3: saw that that ended up being a bad beat for people,

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Speaker 3: because the Rams ended up winning thirty eight twenty two.

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Speaker 3: So if you're gonna you know again, if you're gonna

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Speaker 3: take the favorite, generally take it early in the week.

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Speaker 3: If you're gonna take the doll you can wait, because

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Speaker 3: I think everyone's gonna be putting the bills in the

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Speaker 3: teas or taking the bills instinctively.

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Speaker 2: And yeah, if you like the Jags, which interesting to.

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Speaker 3: Like the Jags at any point, but I would just

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Speaker 3: hold off because you might get closer to a seventeen.

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Speaker 1: That's exactly right. If you like the Bills, hit it out,

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Speaker 1: because fourteen and a half, it's actually fourteen at my

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Speaker 1: book DraftKings fourteen and a half. Pretty much everywhere, that's

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Speaker 1: the best line you're going to see, I expect, so

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Speaker 1: because there's just you can't beck the Jaguars right now,

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Speaker 1: no matter what mo people who work on models and

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Speaker 1: stuff like that, and that's what they bet and the

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Speaker 1: syndicates like, no matter what it says like, there are teams,

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Speaker 1: and I think the Jaguars are one of those teams

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Speaker 1: because of how poorly coached they are. Because of how

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Speaker 1: few adjustments that they make, you know, at halftime that

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Speaker 1: just kind of break the models to the extent where

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Speaker 1: I imagine that there's going to be so much money

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Speaker 1: coming in here on the Bills, and I agree, I

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Speaker 1: think it's going to creep up to fifteen, sixteen, sixteen

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Speaker 1: and a half. And that's where you get a little worried.

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Speaker 1: Like we saw with the Rams, a game that they

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Speaker 1: totally dominated and probably could have won by fifty five

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Speaker 1: points had they get their foot on the gas. So

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Speaker 1: you like the Jags waited out, you like the Bills

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Speaker 1: go now.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's fourteen at DraftKings at minus one ten is

270
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Speaker 3: is pretty appetizing right now, Urban Meyer, he breaks a

271
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Speaker 3: lot of models. Yeah, And I mean you this Jags team,

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Speaker 3: and granted it was a weird travel spot for them,

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Speaker 3: but they led up thirty one points to Gino Smith,

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Speaker 3: a lad team, So I mean that says it all

275
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Speaker 3: right there for me, and I just it's gonna be

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Speaker 3: tough for them to slow down this Bill's offense.

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Speaker 1: I will not hear dispara dream remarks about my former

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Speaker 1: jet Gino Smith, but I will say that that's also

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Speaker 1: coming off a bye right, Like what happens when you're

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Speaker 1: not by Yeah, and now you've got to take on right, Okay,

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Speaker 1: Broncos visiting the Cowboys. The Cowboys are laying nine and

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Speaker 1: a half and the total is forty nine and a half.

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Speaker 1: I will say that legitimately three seconds before the word

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Speaker 1: Broncos came out, I did see something come across the

285
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Speaker 1: wire that Noah Fant has been placed on the COVID

286
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Speaker 1: nineteen reserve list. I don't know whether or not that

287
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Speaker 1: means he's gonna miss the game necessarily, but they could

288
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Speaker 1: be down their tight end here for this game. Broncos

289
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Speaker 1: again getting nine and a half here in Dallas and

290
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Speaker 1: the totals forty nine and a half? What do you think?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? This is and again this is the classic.

292
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Speaker 3: Like if you like the favorite, hopefully you bet it

293
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Speaker 3: at the opening number, because I think this opened as

294
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Speaker 3: low as seven. Now, obviously the Broncos trained away von Miller,

295
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Speaker 3: and von Miller shouldn't him being playing or not shouldn't

296
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Speaker 3: really move the line, but I think it does signal

297
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Speaker 3: to people like kind of waving the white flag here.

298
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Speaker 3: Now you have a non conference spot for this Broncos

299
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Speaker 3: team going up against the Cowboys who will probably play

300
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Speaker 3: deck again.

301
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Speaker 2: He looked pretty healthy. I was surprised he didn't go there.

302
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Speaker 2: They played it safe.

303
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Speaker 3: They you know, got the win with Cooper rush guy

304
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Speaker 3: guy looks like Carson Wentz's stunt double and they just

305
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Speaker 3: they just I mean, it's insane that they're seven and

306
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Speaker 3: zero again to spread. You think at some point this

307
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Speaker 3: is gonna run out, and maybe this Broncos team is

308
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Speaker 3: the team to do it, just because Teddy Bridgewater is

309
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Speaker 3: a machine against the spread on the road. I think

310
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Speaker 3: it's as high as like seventy percent. So I had

311
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Speaker 3: the Broncos as one of my locks last week. Ugly game,

312
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Speaker 3: but they got it done. I mean, von Miller by

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Speaker 3: all accounts, him leaving kind of set some bad vibes

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Speaker 3: for this locker room. So it'll be in an interesting

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Speaker 3: emotional spot I think for this Broncos team with no

316
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Speaker 3: von Miller and the Cowboys are just in cruise control

317
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Speaker 3: right now.

318
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Speaker 1: Did you see the story on that, like the reason

319
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Speaker 1: why they traded him.

320
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Speaker 2: I heard.

321
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Speaker 3: I heard there was stuff about like a Halloween party

322
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Speaker 3: that he got really mad that some of the guys

323
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Speaker 3: didn't chip in for the Halloween party.

324
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Speaker 2: Is that what you're referring.

325
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Speaker 1: To that's correct, apparently, and it like infected the locker

326
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Speaker 1: room and everybody was really pissed at each other, and

327
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Speaker 1: the Broncos were like, we're not resigning him anyway, so

328
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Speaker 1: we're just gonna shoot them out. I don't know whether

329
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Speaker 1: or not that is true. I cannot vouch for the

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Speaker 1: veracity of that story, but nevertheless, it's fun to talk

331
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Speaker 1: about for a second. Yeah, it feels like for me that,

332
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Speaker 1: I mean, there is a ten out there, by the way,

333
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Speaker 1: and a couple spot points bet for example. So my

334
00:15:14,880 --> 00:15:18,200
Speaker 1: guess is it will probably get to ten because nobody

335
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Speaker 1: wants to bet on the Broncos, and everybody's gonna want

336
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Speaker 1: to bend the Cowboys, especially now Dak should be back.

337
00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:24,600
Speaker 1: You're right, everything suggested he is going to come back,

338
00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:27,160
Speaker 1: not that they need him with you know, Cooper rush there.

339
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Speaker 1: But I do think that this is a spot where

340
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Speaker 1: it strikes me that I want to back the Broncos

341
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Speaker 1: just because they I can't figure the Broncos out, Sean,

342
00:15:38,040 --> 00:15:39,720
Speaker 1: I don't know about you, like I can't get a

343
00:15:39,760 --> 00:15:42,120
Speaker 1: read on what they are, and they've they've been decimated

344
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Speaker 1: with injuries, you know, to their linebackers, so suddenly they

345
00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:49,640
Speaker 1: became very vulnerable against the run. I think Bryce Callan

346
00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:51,160
Speaker 1: may have been injured in this one too, so I

347
00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:52,720
Speaker 1: need to check on the you know, cause you're not

348
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Speaker 1: gonna be able to hold down all these receivers. But

349
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Speaker 1: it does strike me as a spot where they's sort

350
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Speaker 1: of classic, like at some point we got to sell

351
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Speaker 1: the Cowboys, right, at some point they're not this good.

352
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Speaker 1: This feels like it might be it, but I would

353
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Speaker 1: wait because I don't think it's going to go down

354
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Speaker 1: like the spread's gonna, you know, move towards seven. I think,

355
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Speaker 1: if anything, it's going to get to ten, maybe even

356
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Speaker 1: higher than that.

357
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Speaker 3: Well, and if their teaser betters in the audience, it's

358
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Speaker 3: it's been a great year to be betting those teases.

359
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Speaker 3: I think, you know, double digit favorites had won outright,

360
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Speaker 3: something like twenty seven and oh actually going into that

361
00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:27,440
Speaker 3: Jets Bengals, I think there were like twenty seven to

362
00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:29,680
Speaker 3: ZH straight up. So I do think they're gonna move this,

363
00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:33,880
Speaker 3: of course, to ten and a half. I think similar

364
00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:36,880
Speaker 3: to what the KC line was, because then they get

365
00:16:36,920 --> 00:16:39,680
Speaker 3: teaser protection. I know because I had I had the

366
00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:42,480
Speaker 3: Chiefs as my last leg in the tease, and I

367
00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:44,520
Speaker 3: don't know why I'm still on the Chiefs. It was

368
00:16:44,560 --> 00:16:47,320
Speaker 3: more just being anti the Giants. Although the Giants just

369
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Speaker 3: keep showing up on the road for some reason. I

370
00:16:50,280 --> 00:16:52,640
Speaker 3: don't I don't understand why there's so much better on

371
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Speaker 3: the road than they are at home.

372
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Speaker 2: So I think you're right.

373
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Speaker 3: It gets to at least ten, probably ten and a

374
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Speaker 3: half because they're protecting it and says like six p teesus.

375
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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, that's where we're going. Texans are visiting

376
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Speaker 1: the Dolphins. You know, Deshaun Watson is still on the

377
00:17:09,200 --> 00:17:11,080
Speaker 1: Texans for now. Could have been Q being for the

378
00:17:11,080 --> 00:17:13,520
Speaker 1: other team if you would believe the rumors early on.

379
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Speaker 1: The Dolphins are currently laying six and a half with

380
00:17:17,119 --> 00:17:19,960
Speaker 1: a total of forty six. This is a weird game

381
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Speaker 1: for me, Sean, How do you feel about it? Yeah?

382
00:17:22,119 --> 00:17:26,399
Speaker 3: I mean a one win Dolphins team, like, what are

383
00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:30,560
Speaker 3: they won in seven and they're laying six. That's to

384
00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:33,840
Speaker 3: me is just crazy. But then on the other side,

385
00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:37,520
Speaker 3: how do you talk yourself into taking the Texans at

386
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Speaker 3: any point? I'm still holding out hope that my boy

387
00:17:40,840 --> 00:17:44,600
Speaker 3: Tyrod Taylor. Yeah, it sounded like he was maybe close

388
00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:48,600
Speaker 3: last week. But again, what are the Texans playing for? Like,

389
00:17:48,680 --> 00:17:51,720
Speaker 3: do they I mean, you know, obviously Tyrod isn't the

390
00:17:52,320 --> 00:17:54,600
Speaker 3: man of the future. Do they want to see what

391
00:17:54,640 --> 00:17:56,600
Speaker 3: they have with Davis Mills? I feel like we kind

392
00:17:56,600 --> 00:17:58,600
Speaker 3: of already know what we have with Davis Mills.

393
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Speaker 2: And now Miami.

394
00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:02,080
Speaker 3: By all accounts, it seemed like they wanted to get

395
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Speaker 3: the trade done. The contingency was that he would have

396
00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:09,280
Speaker 3: to settle these civil lawsuits, according to reports, and for

397
00:18:09,320 --> 00:18:13,399
Speaker 3: whatever reason, that didn't happen. So now Miami's in a

398
00:18:13,480 --> 00:18:16,679
Speaker 3: weird spot because clearly, I mean, how committed can they

399
00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:18,480
Speaker 3: actually beat a Tuah?

400
00:18:18,760 --> 00:18:20,399
Speaker 2: It's clearly into his head?

401
00:18:20,480 --> 00:18:22,520
Speaker 3: And I'm not a big to a guy by any means,

402
00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:25,440
Speaker 3: but man, this is a game where if you're betting this,

403
00:18:25,520 --> 00:18:26,439
Speaker 3: you're a brave person.

404
00:18:26,480 --> 00:18:29,920
Speaker 2: Because I have no I have no like you can.

405
00:18:30,400 --> 00:18:31,600
Speaker 3: I don't want to be I don't want to have

406
00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:33,400
Speaker 3: a ticket on either one of these teams right now.

407
00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:36,199
Speaker 1: I will take a ticket on this game, but it

408
00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:38,879
Speaker 1: will probably be on the over because I think what

409
00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:41,240
Speaker 1: we're gonna see is a lot of offense in that

410
00:18:41,359 --> 00:18:46,119
Speaker 1: I think Miami is They're not terriball offensively once with

411
00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:52,000
Speaker 1: Devontai Parker back with Jaylen Waddle sickne Yeah, get sicky exactly.

412
00:18:52,480 --> 00:18:54,760
Speaker 1: You know. I hate to mention his name, but Miles

413
00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:57,280
Speaker 1: Gasking now without Malcolm Brown like can do some things

414
00:18:57,280 --> 00:18:59,560
Speaker 1: in the right thing and against Houston, and I also

415
00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:03,480
Speaker 1: again they probably want to it probably is very motivated,

416
00:19:03,560 --> 00:19:06,280
Speaker 1: I would assume to kind of show what you can

417
00:19:06,320 --> 00:19:08,840
Speaker 1: do in this and you know, the Texans, whether it's

418
00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:11,040
Speaker 1: garbage seim or not, like they can put up points.

419
00:19:11,040 --> 00:19:13,120
Speaker 1: And the Dolphins defense played better last week, but they've

420
00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:16,920
Speaker 1: been a sieve this whole year. Man. So it's only

421
00:19:16,960 --> 00:19:18,919
Speaker 1: forty six. It's forty six and a half for me

422
00:19:19,880 --> 00:19:22,600
Speaker 1: at DraftKings, but everywhere else looks like at forty six.

423
00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:24,640
Speaker 1: So that's actually where I go. I'm going to bet

424
00:19:24,680 --> 00:19:26,680
Speaker 1: it as soon as we're off this podcast. But that's

425
00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:29,000
Speaker 1: it for a side. No, I will not bet a

426
00:19:29,040 --> 00:19:30,800
Speaker 1: side at all on this game. I don't know what

427
00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:33,480
Speaker 1: you do with this one, but Saints at home are

428
00:19:33,560 --> 00:19:37,199
Speaker 1: laying six to the Falcons and the total is a

429
00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:40,960
Speaker 1: minuscule forty two and a half. So we presume it's

430
00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:43,720
Speaker 1: going to be Taysom Hill, who everything said suggested that

431
00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:45,239
Speaker 1: he would be up if not, it's going to be

432
00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:48,320
Speaker 1: Trevor Simeon. There's no Calvin Ridley on the other side,

433
00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:50,080
Speaker 1: So how do you break this one down?

434
00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:54,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is this to me feels a hair high

435
00:19:54,760 --> 00:19:56,359
Speaker 3: just based on we don't know.

436
00:19:56,760 --> 00:19:59,800
Speaker 2: I mean, Jamis Winston was a legit quarterback.

437
00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:03,200
Speaker 3: I mean, I still don't know if I'm really factoring

438
00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:07,360
Speaker 3: in modeling. Not that I'm a model guy, but that

439
00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:10,720
Speaker 3: you know, I'm not really counting Taysom Hill as a

440
00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:13,000
Speaker 3: legit starting quarterback.

441
00:20:13,080 --> 00:20:15,040
Speaker 2: And I guess we'll see there often.

442
00:20:15,080 --> 00:20:18,800
Speaker 3: Certainly does seem pretty different when they have a Taysom

443
00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:19,320
Speaker 3: Hill in there.

444
00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:20,920
Speaker 2: As far as like the stuff they're gonna run.

445
00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:26,200
Speaker 3: They do have a Kamara obviously healthy, and but six

446
00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:28,679
Speaker 3: points feels a bit high for this division game and

447
00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:30,320
Speaker 3: they're coming off that felt like.

448
00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:31,400
Speaker 2: A massive victory.

449
00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:34,680
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm sure you saw that video of Jamis

450
00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:37,080
Speaker 3: dancing in the locker room with the fog machine going,

451
00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:40,399
Speaker 3: celebrating that big win. And I always like to fade

452
00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:42,640
Speaker 3: teams coming off a big win, laying a big number,

453
00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:46,320
Speaker 3: especially in a division spot. Again, I'm not in love

454
00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:50,159
Speaker 3: with the Falcons, but them back during this certainly is

455
00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:50,920
Speaker 3: a possibility.

456
00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:55,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't love it either side. Man, Like I agree,

457
00:20:55,119 --> 00:20:57,520
Speaker 1: it's such a letdown spot here for the Saints after

458
00:20:57,560 --> 00:20:59,879
Speaker 1: that victory, like you said, like it really really is.

459
00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:04,040
Speaker 1: And the Falcons looked terrible, But that's what that's when

460
00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:05,840
Speaker 1: you buy a team. Yeah, right, you buy a team

461
00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:08,200
Speaker 1: and they look like the worst team in the NFL, right,

462
00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:08,720
Speaker 1: I mean.

463
00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:11,159
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think this will end up being closer to

464
00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:12,399
Speaker 3: four than seven.

465
00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:14,560
Speaker 2: So I was surprised to see a six.

466
00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:18,159
Speaker 1: So I guess if you like the Falcons, then probably

467
00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:21,040
Speaker 1: you'd think you should take them now as opposed to Wait, right, Okay,

468
00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:22,879
Speaker 1: I think that's right. I don't think he gets the

469
00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:26,399
Speaker 1: seven just because as Giants are home where you know

470
00:21:26,480 --> 00:21:29,320
Speaker 1: they we just talked about it not their strong side.

471
00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:32,200
Speaker 1: They're getting I'm sorry, they're getting two and a half

472
00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:35,280
Speaker 1: points from the Raiders. The total is forty six and

473
00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:37,919
Speaker 1: a half. The Raiders are coming off the bye, but

474
00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:41,400
Speaker 1: they're traveling across country, and of course the Henry Ruggs

475
00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:46,840
Speaker 1: situation where the horrific accident he will I assume be

476
00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:49,240
Speaker 1: certainly not playing this game, probably not play for the

477
00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:52,199
Speaker 1: rest of the season, whatever happens. So that does impact

478
00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:53,840
Speaker 1: their offense of course, but they're laying two and a

479
00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:56,639
Speaker 1: half here off the by with the total of forty

480
00:21:56,680 --> 00:21:57,160
Speaker 1: six and a half.

481
00:21:57,280 --> 00:21:59,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that that rug story.

482
00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:02,879
Speaker 3: Really there's a wrench into this handicap in this this

483
00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:06,520
Speaker 3: Raiders team. You know, between this and then the Gruden thing,

484
00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:09,480
Speaker 3: they've kind of been on an emotional roller coaster.

485
00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:14,200
Speaker 2: I imagine for this team.

486
00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:16,200
Speaker 3: Hard hard to not like the Raiders, and they they again,

487
00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:18,040
Speaker 3: I don't even know what you would compare this to,

488
00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:20,480
Speaker 3: but they've they've already been.

489
00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:22,480
Speaker 2: Through a lot of a lot of stuff so far

490
00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:23,240
Speaker 2: in this season.

491
00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:26,040
Speaker 3: I do like the matchups. I mean, I think the

492
00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:29,600
Speaker 3: health of Darren Waller will be big. I mean, you

493
00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:32,879
Speaker 3: know who's at Foster Morow filled in pretty well, but

494
00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:37,359
Speaker 3: I think I think Darren Waller, certainly the Giants would

495
00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:40,480
Speaker 3: have their hands full. And again, this Giants team that

496
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:43,480
Speaker 3: was a I mean that the two minute drills they're

497
00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:47,000
Speaker 3: running and they're super banged up. It'll be interesting to

498
00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:48,880
Speaker 3: see what the injury report. It does feel like this

499
00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:53,080
Speaker 3: is the game probably where Saquon comes back. But yeah,

500
00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:56,560
Speaker 3: so you know, two and a half point road favorite

501
00:22:56,560 --> 00:23:01,240
Speaker 3: for the Raiders sounds about right. I would be shocked

502
00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:03,840
Speaker 3: if it gets to three and a half for the Raiders,

503
00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:06,159
Speaker 3: especially everything that they're gonna have to deal with.

504
00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:08,560
Speaker 1: So it is, it is, I will say, I mean

505
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:10,560
Speaker 1: the consensus line again where a betting bro's like home,

506
00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:12,480
Speaker 1: the consensus line is two and a half. But it's

507
00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:14,879
Speaker 1: basically fifty percent of the books I'm looking at or

508
00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:17,600
Speaker 1: two and a half and like forty nine percent or

509
00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:20,200
Speaker 1: whatever are at three. So it is bouncing back between

510
00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:21,560
Speaker 1: two and a half and three. So I don't know

511
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:22,840
Speaker 1: if that means that if you're at two and a

512
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:24,920
Speaker 1: half and you like the Raiders, obviously go now because

513
00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:28,040
Speaker 1: there's clearly no consensus here as to where they get

514
00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:30,120
Speaker 1: to three. We can't forget. I mean, you did mention

515
00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:32,560
Speaker 1: I do think Saquan should come back at this point

516
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:34,720
Speaker 1: because it's been three games and they didn't place them

517
00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:37,640
Speaker 1: on ir so you felt like, right, they're probably there.

518
00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:40,280
Speaker 1: Maybe Kenny Galley comes back. They're probably gonna be down

519
00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:43,119
Speaker 1: those Sterling Shepherd they just can't keep anyone healthy in

520
00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:45,399
Speaker 1: that team. But again, the Giants. I'll never back the

521
00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:46,000
Speaker 1: Giants at home.

522
00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:48,399
Speaker 3: No, they're so bad against the spread at home, and

523
00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:52,920
Speaker 3: they've been sneakily okay in certain spots against the spread,

524
00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:56,080
Speaker 3: but it's usually on the road or in especially.

525
00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:56,679
Speaker 2: In division games.

526
00:23:57,040 --> 00:23:59,520
Speaker 3: Joe Judge has been I know as an Eagles fan,

527
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:02,639
Speaker 3: they've been good against the number, not great straight up,

528
00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:05,560
Speaker 3: but yeah, the two and a half kind of interesting.

529
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:08,040
Speaker 3: But it's tough to talk yourself into this giant team

530
00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:08,320
Speaker 3: at home.

531
00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:11,480
Speaker 1: All right, two teams coming off big wins. Here, the

532
00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:15,159
Speaker 1: Patriots are visiting the Panthers. The Pats are laying four

533
00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:18,960
Speaker 1: points and the total is forty one. We have question

534
00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:22,440
Speaker 1: marks about Sam Darnold. He's in the concussion protocol right now.

535
00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:25,520
Speaker 1: It's a concussion. We never know exactly how that's gonna

536
00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:27,720
Speaker 1: shake itself out. We don't know if Christian McCaffrey is

537
00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:29,960
Speaker 1: going to play. I do not think that he is personally.

538
00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:32,280
Speaker 1: So if you're letting that factor it in, you can

539
00:24:33,040 --> 00:24:34,680
Speaker 1: listen to me or not. But what do you think

540
00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:36,800
Speaker 1: here with the Pats laying for and that's total really

541
00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:38,000
Speaker 1: small forty one.

542
00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:43,439
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's interesting, and there's a there's a revenge angle

543
00:24:43,480 --> 00:24:48,000
Speaker 3: as well, I think for Gilmore there and you know it,

544
00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:50,600
Speaker 3: maybe it is a good time to fade some of

545
00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:51,640
Speaker 3: this Patriots hype.

546
00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:53,000
Speaker 2: But you know, PJ.

547
00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:56,879
Speaker 3: Walker who I loved in the XFL or AF I

548
00:24:56,960 --> 00:24:59,440
Speaker 3: forget he was fun, but he did not look good

549
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:03,959
Speaker 3: in relief of Sam Darnold and this Panthers offense. Man

550
00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:06,960
Speaker 3: as a guy who owned Robbie a lot of shares

551
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:10,359
Speaker 3: of Robbie Anderson in Best Ball and you know, even

552
00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:14,200
Speaker 3: some season long stuff, he has just been a colossal disappointment.

553
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:17,720
Speaker 2: You're you're right to think Christian McCaffrey.

554
00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:20,760
Speaker 3: I mean, if you're if you're fine taking the Panthers

555
00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:22,240
Speaker 3: without McCaffrey, I think you wait.

556
00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:24,440
Speaker 2: So if he ends up being a late scratch, I wouldn't.

557
00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:27,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, could this get as high as like six?

558
00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:30,760
Speaker 3: It certainly isn't gonna hit seven, But the fact that

559
00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:33,440
Speaker 3: it's already at four is just showing a tremendous amount

560
00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:37,159
Speaker 3: of respect.

561
00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:34,560
Speaker 1: For this.

562
00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:39,840
Speaker 3: Patriots team, who looked pretty good against the Chargers. Now

563
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:42,040
Speaker 3: it's a back to back road spot, which is for

564
00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:44,840
Speaker 3: a young team, a young quarterback, that is a tough spot.

565
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:47,400
Speaker 2: So again, probably.

566
00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:50,000
Speaker 3: Wait if you like the Panthers, but man, yeah, you

567
00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:52,760
Speaker 3: got to see who's the quarterback and what shafe He's

568
00:25:52,760 --> 00:25:55,200
Speaker 3: in a lot of question marks for the Panthers.

569
00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:57,800
Speaker 1: It's a really tough game for me, even assuming that

570
00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:03,919
Speaker 1: Donald plays, just because I think that it's been shown

571
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:06,439
Speaker 1: a little bit here Sean over the last few weeks

572
00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:10,040
Speaker 1: that Sam Darnold probably is not the long term solution

573
00:26:10,400 --> 00:26:12,920
Speaker 1: for an NFL franchise at quarterback. I like the guy.

574
00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:15,000
Speaker 1: I wish we hadn't ruined his career, but I think

575
00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:17,760
Speaker 1: we probably did so. I think when you put him

576
00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:20,840
Speaker 1: up against a Bill Belichick defense at this point, it's

577
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:24,800
Speaker 1: probably not going to end well, as most recent games haven't.

578
00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:28,720
Speaker 1: The Panthers, though, are getting healthy on defense, and again

579
00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:31,640
Speaker 1: with Gilmour there, that's a big addition. It's a really

580
00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:34,480
Speaker 1: tough game. So I understand why the spread is at

581
00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:36,080
Speaker 1: fort like I can't take. I don't think I can

582
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:38,600
Speaker 1: take the under on forty one, but I do. This

583
00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:41,919
Speaker 1: does strike me as like a seventeen thirteen game realistically.

584
00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:45,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, so yeah, no, it feels like it could get ugly,

585
00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:48,320
Speaker 3: kind of like that the game the Panthers just played.

586
00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:50,879
Speaker 2: I mean the Panthers Falcons. The Panthers have been.

587
00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:53,840
Speaker 3: In a lot of ugly games. I mean, Eagles beat

588
00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:56,480
Speaker 3: them twenty one to eighteen. That was a super ugly game.

589
00:26:56,920 --> 00:26:58,480
Speaker 3: You know, they kind of got off to that hot

590
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:01,440
Speaker 3: start and have been flat a little bit, but again

591
00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:05,520
Speaker 3: coming off a win, a much needed win. Maybe if

592
00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:09,280
Speaker 3: McCaffrey plays, the spread gets down to.

593
00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:09,760
Speaker 2: Three and a half.

594
00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:12,080
Speaker 3: But I feel like, if anything, it could creep up

595
00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:13,520
Speaker 3: a little bit because I could see a lot of

596
00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:15,960
Speaker 3: people putting the Patriots in the tease.

597
00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:19,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, and again, you know, if you like the Panthers

598
00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:22,840
Speaker 1: and it turns out Donald plays like at four and

599
00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 1: a half, he teas it up to ten and a half. Like,

600
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:28,439
Speaker 1: I don't mind that either, just in terms of what

601
00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:30,560
Speaker 1: we're gonna see, but it is something where you gotta

602
00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:33,080
Speaker 1: wait a little bit. Unfortunately, because of Sam Darnald, charters

603
00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:37,359
Speaker 1: are visiting your Eagles here. The Eagles coming off the

604
00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:40,520
Speaker 1: big win, are laying a point in the consensus line.

605
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:43,479
Speaker 1: There are some one and a half and the totals big,

606
00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:46,439
Speaker 1: it's fifty. So you know onn't knowl Sean looked like

607
00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:48,800
Speaker 1: you figured some stuff out, which is run the ball

608
00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:51,360
Speaker 1: a little bit. You've now got the worst rush defense

609
00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:53,600
Speaker 1: in the NFL. Are we going to see a repeat

610
00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:54,760
Speaker 1: here for the Eagles?

611
00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:55,399
Speaker 2: Yeah?

612
00:27:55,480 --> 00:28:02,639
Speaker 3: I mean every that Detroit Lions game was danger dangerous

613
00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:06,199
Speaker 3: for Eagles fans not because it gave us hope, but

614
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:09,680
Speaker 3: because now we've become drunk with power because we kept

615
00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 3: we kept telling Nick Sirianni and the Eagles just run

616
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:16,160
Speaker 3: the ball, run the dang ball. And then they actually

617
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:20,280
Speaker 3: do run the dang ball, and it's a blowout victory.

618
00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:23,159
Speaker 3: So now every Eagles fan knows exactly what to do,

619
00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:26,560
Speaker 3: and we've been vindicated as fans. This is a little

620
00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:28,760
Speaker 3: interesting nugget coming in here. I mean, the Eagles haven't

621
00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:32,480
Speaker 3: won a game at home yet this year, usually very

622
00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:35,840
Speaker 3: good historically, even when the team's bad will kind of

623
00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:39,080
Speaker 3: show up at home. All three wins have come on

624
00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:41,120
Speaker 3: the road, So you imagine this is a get up

625
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:43,600
Speaker 3: spot for the Eagles, but also on the other side,

626
00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:45,600
Speaker 3: it's it's a get up spot for this Chargers team.

627
00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:49,240
Speaker 3: They've lost, you know, they lost bad to the Ravens,

628
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:52,280
Speaker 3: lost a tough game at home to the Patriots. And

629
00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:54,200
Speaker 3: that's a lot of travel too, like you talk, and

630
00:28:54,240 --> 00:28:56,160
Speaker 3: there was a bye week in there, but still going

631
00:28:56,200 --> 00:28:57,600
Speaker 3: to the East coast, coming all the way back to

632
00:28:57,640 --> 00:28:59,920
Speaker 3: the West coast. Now going back to the East Coast

633
00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:04,640
Speaker 3: for a non conference spot where your road favorite and

634
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:08,080
Speaker 3: Herbert seems to be struggling here a little bit.

635
00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:12,320
Speaker 1: He does, He definitely does. And you look at sort

636
00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:16,600
Speaker 1: of his breakdown and he's either phenomenal and totally lights

637
00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:19,600
Speaker 1: it up or he's got absolutely nothing going on whatsoever.

638
00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:21,800
Speaker 1: And the thing is, I kind of like the Eagles defense.

639
00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:24,880
Speaker 1: I think they're a little underrated here. So I don't

640
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:26,720
Speaker 1: know who's gonna win this game, Like, I don't feel

641
00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:29,920
Speaker 1: comfortable and it's one, so it doesn't matter. Obviously. I

642
00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:32,360
Speaker 1: kind of lean the under a little bit. I could

643
00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:34,960
Speaker 1: see this because again, the Charges are really vulnerable on

644
00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:37,560
Speaker 1: the ground, and so I'm sure the Eagles, hopefully we'll

645
00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:39,720
Speaker 1: try to run it, but I think they'll probably struggle

646
00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:40,480
Speaker 1: through the air a little bit.

647
00:29:40,560 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, every fingers crossed.

648
00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:46,600
Speaker 1: Fingers crossed, and the Chargers offense just looks again, a

649
00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:49,280
Speaker 1: little out of sorts at this point. You know, traveling

650
00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:53,479
Speaker 1: cross country here Philadelphia strikes me as a low scoring

651
00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:55,680
Speaker 1: game a little bit. So the fact that total is fifty,

652
00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:58,480
Speaker 1: I'll probably hit that now. It's fifty and a half

653
00:29:58,480 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 1: at a couple of spots too, So it strikes me

654
00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:03,240
Speaker 1: as an under type of game. This one. We all

655
00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:07,280
Speaker 1: want to see Packers visiting the Chiefs. The Chiefs are

656
00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:10,840
Speaker 1: one point favorites and the totals fifty four and a half.

657
00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:12,560
Speaker 1: Sean any reaction here.

658
00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:16,560
Speaker 3: Uh yeah, you know it's man, I mean, what was

659
00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:20,200
Speaker 3: the My reaction is how you know the mighty have fallen?

660
00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:21,120
Speaker 2: Because if you would have?

661
00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:23,680
Speaker 3: I don't know what the like Game of the Year

662
00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:26,240
Speaker 3: spreads those ones that come out in June when you're

663
00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:30,040
Speaker 3: when you're desperate for football numbers to break down, but

664
00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:33,440
Speaker 3: I'm sure it was. It was well north to three,

665
00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:36,480
Speaker 3: even even with the Packers coming in as a pretty

666
00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:37,480
Speaker 3: respected team.

667
00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:39,480
Speaker 2: You know, Chiefs at home.

668
00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 3: It's it's crazy how how much stuff has changed. And

669
00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:46,040
Speaker 3: I think the public is going to be stoked about

670
00:30:46,040 --> 00:30:48,440
Speaker 3: taking this Packers team. They got a little mini by

671
00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 3: here and DeVante Adams I think should be coming off

672
00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:53,880
Speaker 3: the COVID list.

673
00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:56,280
Speaker 2: He missed that game and and they missed a couple

674
00:30:56,320 --> 00:30:57,040
Speaker 2: of their receivers.

675
00:30:57,080 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 3: So because being on the COVID list, so ideally they

676
00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:03,640
Speaker 3: I mean, there's serious issues in this Chiefs defense, but

677
00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:07,160
Speaker 3: really the turnover issues for the Chiefs offense don't seem

678
00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:11,200
Speaker 3: to be going away anytime soon. And clearly Patrick Mahomes

679
00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:15,920
Speaker 3: is pressing like if Monday night at home against the Giants.

680
00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:18,320
Speaker 2: Wasn't a get right spot for this Chiefs team?

681
00:31:18,840 --> 00:31:22,200
Speaker 3: Is there a get right spot for them?

682
00:31:22,600 --> 00:31:26,200
Speaker 1: It's not here, That's what I can say. I don't

683
00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:28,600
Speaker 1: see how you avoid taking the Packers in this one.

684
00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:32,280
Speaker 1: Like with Adams coming back, which again he's supposed to

685
00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:35,360
Speaker 1: be on track to report on Thursday, Alan Ozard is

686
00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:39,600
Speaker 1: already off the COVID list ANDVS has been activated off

687
00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:42,000
Speaker 1: of IR at least designated to return. He probably is

688
00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:43,920
Speaker 1: going to come back, so he got a full compliment

689
00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:48,760
Speaker 1: of weapons here, and the Chiefs look terrible. My real

690
00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:51,560
Speaker 1: thing with this, Sean, is that like this is begging

691
00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:53,920
Speaker 1: you to take the Packers. I mean, everybody was watching

692
00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:57,000
Speaker 1: that game. The spread was ten ten points, and I

693
00:31:57,040 --> 00:31:59,560
Speaker 1: thought the Chiefs were going to cover that spread. And

694
00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 1: they looked completely out of sorts. I mean, Mahomes looks

695
00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:05,560
Speaker 1: I made the analogy on our discord yesterday. It looks

696
00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:08,200
Speaker 1: like a rookie QB at times, just given the fact

697
00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:11,920
Speaker 1: that he gets back there, he takes forever, He runs

698
00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:15,800
Speaker 1: around NonStop before he either makes a miraculous throw because

699
00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:18,800
Speaker 1: he's Patrick Mahomes, or he kind of throws out about

700
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:21,560
Speaker 1: or maybe you know, maybe Tyreek Hill does something. But

701
00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:25,080
Speaker 1: it just looks like there is somehow, at least for

702
00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:28,600
Speaker 1: right now, a formula as to what you do on

703
00:32:28,760 --> 00:32:31,920
Speaker 1: defense against Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs offense. You drop

704
00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:34,520
Speaker 1: everybody deep, you take away the explosive play, and you

705
00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:37,080
Speaker 1: rush him. And that has been working right now. Now

706
00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:40,080
Speaker 1: you've got Patrick Mahomes and you've got Andy Reid, so

707
00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:42,880
Speaker 1: they'll probably figure this out. But even if they do,

708
00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:46,000
Speaker 1: you have perhaps the worst defense in all of football

709
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:49,959
Speaker 1: right now against Aaron Rodgers off of mini by feeling

710
00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:52,880
Speaker 1: really good. I don't see how you You don't have

711
00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:54,800
Speaker 1: to run to do it. It's a point like if

712
00:32:54,840 --> 00:32:57,080
Speaker 1: they're favored by a point, if they're giving a point,

713
00:32:57,120 --> 00:33:00,400
Speaker 1: it doesn't really matter. But if this gets to one

714
00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:02,800
Speaker 1: and a half somehow the public comes in the Chiefs,

715
00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:05,880
Speaker 1: I'm going to tease it up immediately for the Packers

716
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:08,040
Speaker 1: getting seven and a half, like immediately, I'm going to

717
00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:10,040
Speaker 1: do that. But either way, I think at one sean

718
00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:13,720
Speaker 1: this maybe not maybe I'll take a different tune. Looks

719
00:33:13,720 --> 00:33:15,920
Speaker 1: like dig it to it, but is like a great bat.

720
00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:18,680
Speaker 3: Yeah. At the surface levels, it's hard to figure out

721
00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:22,200
Speaker 3: an angle for the Chiefs, which is always scary. But

722
00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:24,720
Speaker 3: the Chiefs have just been horrible against the spread, five

723
00:33:24,760 --> 00:33:28,440
Speaker 3: and fifteen against the spread in their last twenty. Now,

724
00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:31,840
Speaker 3: certainly some of those numbers were pretty inflated, you know,

725
00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:34,560
Speaker 3: as we saw against the Giants. This is more just

726
00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:37,520
Speaker 3: basically like a pick them. But if you're getting down

727
00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:40,600
Speaker 3: on those long style teasers where you're taking one or

728
00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:42,600
Speaker 3: two point dogs and teasing them up past the key

729
00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:44,440
Speaker 3: number of seven, getting it to that seven and a

730
00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:48,880
Speaker 3: half or eight, and you know, Aaron Rodgers looks dialed

731
00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:51,959
Speaker 3: in and they seem to get enough out of their defense.

732
00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:54,800
Speaker 3: I mean, the Packers' defense played pretty strong on the

733
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:57,600
Speaker 3: road on the short week against Arizona. If they can

734
00:33:57,680 --> 00:34:00,760
Speaker 3: get another decent performance, I think they should be in

735
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:01,400
Speaker 3: the driver's suit.

736
00:34:03,000 --> 00:34:07,040
Speaker 1: Yeah. They look great, and I am very happy, my friend,

737
00:34:07,080 --> 00:34:10,880
Speaker 1: that when right before Rogers signed and there are these

738
00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:13,439
Speaker 1: rumors that he was going to retire, there were still

739
00:34:13,440 --> 00:34:15,799
Speaker 1: books out there offering them at plus one seventy five

740
00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:18,360
Speaker 1: to win that division, even when it became pretty apparent

741
00:34:18,400 --> 00:34:21,600
Speaker 1: that he was gonna report. So it's good. I don't

742
00:34:21,640 --> 00:34:24,480
Speaker 1: know the consensus line here, Sean. It's all over the place.

743
00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:26,520
Speaker 1: With the Cardinals, and the forty nine ers, because books

744
00:34:26,920 --> 00:34:29,680
Speaker 1: are basically like hedging their bets because they don't know

745
00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:32,440
Speaker 1: whether or not Kyler. I think they're they're taking it

746
00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:34,719
Speaker 1: easy with Kyler Murray. So I see it at a

747
00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:36,800
Speaker 1: pick at some books. I see it at one. I

748
00:34:36,840 --> 00:34:38,960
Speaker 1: don't know if you have a book that you see

749
00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:42,120
Speaker 1: it at, but let's assume it's basically, I don't know one.

750
00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:45,480
Speaker 1: I assume that spread is essentially the forty nine ers

751
00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:48,440
Speaker 1: right now getting one again in a spot where I

752
00:34:48,440 --> 00:34:50,160
Speaker 1: think the books are hedging a little bit with a

753
00:34:50,200 --> 00:34:51,399
Speaker 1: total forty five. Yeah.

754
00:34:51,560 --> 00:34:55,680
Speaker 3: Again, this is just clearly going to depend on whether

755
00:34:55,760 --> 00:34:58,120
Speaker 3: Kyler Murray plays or whether we get.

756
00:34:58,000 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 2: More information on Kyler Murray.

757
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:03,440
Speaker 3: I mean, my take, instant reaction and just the stuff

758
00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:06,239
Speaker 3: I read early on is that I do think he

759
00:35:06,360 --> 00:35:07,000
Speaker 3: will play.

760
00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:09,920
Speaker 2: I'll be a little surprised.

761
00:35:09,520 --> 00:35:11,799
Speaker 3: If he doesn't end up going, especially coming off the

762
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:14,640
Speaker 3: Thursday rest, but I think we'll probably have a better

763
00:35:14,680 --> 00:35:18,680
Speaker 3: idea come Thursday if he's actually playing or not. And

764
00:35:18,719 --> 00:35:21,080
Speaker 3: the line will tell you, because in the same way

765
00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:24,920
Speaker 3: for that Vikings Cowboys game where all of a sudden

766
00:35:24,960 --> 00:35:28,200
Speaker 3: the line switched from the Vikings being a you know,

767
00:35:28,280 --> 00:35:30,800
Speaker 3: two three point dog to a two three point favorite.

768
00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:32,880
Speaker 2: You knew immediately. You didn't have to wait for the

769
00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:33,799
Speaker 2: report to come out.

770
00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:37,839
Speaker 3: The people that are taking million dollar bets on this

771
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:40,920
Speaker 3: have the early action. So if you want to know

772
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:43,600
Speaker 3: whether or not to start Kyler Murray and your fantasy team,

773
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:44,479
Speaker 3: just keep an.

774
00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:45,440
Speaker 2: Eye on the betting line.

775
00:35:45,560 --> 00:35:48,120
Speaker 3: But I think if you can get points with the Cardinals,

776
00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:50,160
Speaker 3: if you can find a book that offers points in

777
00:35:50,200 --> 00:35:53,319
Speaker 3: the Cardinals, I think that's a that's a fun bet

778
00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:55,080
Speaker 3: to take, especially them coming off a loss.

779
00:35:56,480 --> 00:36:00,640
Speaker 1: You know, they played really tight that first game, and really,

780
00:36:00,680 --> 00:36:03,080
Speaker 1: if Jimmy Garoppolo were healthy, crazy that I have to

781
00:36:03,120 --> 00:36:05,160
Speaker 1: say this, but if Jimmy Garoppolo were healthy for that

782
00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:07,719
Speaker 1: game where Trey Lance started, I think that the forty

783
00:36:07,800 --> 00:36:10,200
Speaker 1: nine ers might have won that game. And I think

784
00:36:10,239 --> 00:36:12,520
Speaker 1: Mari's going to go. I think the bigger question is

785
00:36:12,560 --> 00:36:15,520
Speaker 1: how limited is it going to be? Because he avoids

786
00:36:15,760 --> 00:36:17,759
Speaker 1: more sacks than any quarterback I've ever seen in my

787
00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:19,480
Speaker 1: life just with how quick he is, and if his

788
00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:22,080
Speaker 1: mobility is limited, that really puts a tie bosh on

789
00:36:22,120 --> 00:36:23,880
Speaker 1: it a little bit. So yeah, this is just one

790
00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:26,239
Speaker 1: where you gotta wait. I think to do it. Yeah.

791
00:36:26,239 --> 00:36:29,279
Speaker 3: I mean I think either side, you like, if you

792
00:36:29,320 --> 00:36:33,040
Speaker 3: can get points, like if you yeah, I think if

793
00:36:33,040 --> 00:36:34,440
Speaker 3: you like the forty nine ers and you can get

794
00:36:34,480 --> 00:36:37,920
Speaker 3: that like plus two and a half right now for

795
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:42,400
Speaker 3: them somehow, you know, I would take that as well.

796
00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:43,600
Speaker 2: But I don't know.

797
00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:46,520
Speaker 3: I keep leaning to thinking that they that Murray's going

798
00:36:46,560 --> 00:36:47,960
Speaker 3: to play. But you bring up a great point.

799
00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:52,160
Speaker 2: Arizona does seem to struggle in Levi Stadium, and the

800
00:36:52,200 --> 00:36:54,640
Speaker 2: forty nine ers kind of have their number, and maybe

801
00:36:54,640 --> 00:36:58,440
Speaker 2: it's going to be a situation like the Saints Bucks.

802
00:36:58,560 --> 00:37:01,359
Speaker 3: Where just the Saints kind of own the Bucks for

803
00:37:01,400 --> 00:37:05,279
Speaker 3: whatever reason, especially in this short, sable sized Tom Brady era,

804
00:37:05,440 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 3: that certainly could be the case.

805
00:37:08,040 --> 00:37:10,160
Speaker 1: I'm telling you, like, if this is if they if

806
00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:11,640
Speaker 1: it is two and a half, because I feel like

807
00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:13,279
Speaker 1: the look aheadline might have been two and a half.

808
00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:15,600
Speaker 1: Maybe I don't know, but if it is that, I

809
00:37:16,040 --> 00:37:18,080
Speaker 1: don't think I want it, Like, I don't I'm not

810
00:37:18,080 --> 00:37:19,520
Speaker 1: going to run to take the forty nine ers or

811
00:37:19,560 --> 00:37:22,040
Speaker 1: anything like that, but I just this doesn't strike me

812
00:37:22,080 --> 00:37:25,360
Speaker 1: as a game where the Cardinals, even if Murray were healthy,

813
00:37:26,040 --> 00:37:27,160
Speaker 1: is going to be able to just come out here

814
00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:29,440
Speaker 1: and dominate like they the forty nine ers know how

815
00:37:29,520 --> 00:37:31,799
Speaker 1: to play them. They play him tough, you know. So

816
00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:33,440
Speaker 1: I think it's just much more of it. I'm going

817
00:37:33,520 --> 00:37:35,680
Speaker 1: to watch this game for fun and stay away from it.

818
00:37:35,719 --> 00:37:37,080
Speaker 2: From a interesting concept.

819
00:37:37,200 --> 00:37:41,200
Speaker 1: Titan Ah, Yes, can you that? Yeah, it's weird. I've

820
00:37:41,200 --> 00:37:43,080
Speaker 1: done it. I did it one time. It was weird.

821
00:37:43,360 --> 00:37:47,319
Speaker 1: All odd Titans visiting the Rams. No Dereck Henry now,

822
00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:49,719
Speaker 1: of course, And the spread now is seven and a

823
00:37:49,760 --> 00:37:54,000
Speaker 1: half from the Rams. Total is pretty high here at

824
00:37:54,120 --> 00:37:57,719
Speaker 1: fifty three and a half potential, or at least that

825
00:37:57,760 --> 00:38:00,840
Speaker 1: could have been with Henry super Bowl preview here. What

826
00:38:00,880 --> 00:38:03,319
Speaker 1: do you think here on Sunday Night Football primetime? Seven

827
00:38:03,360 --> 00:38:04,000
Speaker 1: and a half points?

828
00:38:04,080 --> 00:38:04,319
Speaker 2: Yeah?

829
00:38:04,440 --> 00:38:08,759
Speaker 3: Again, this one I think opened at seven and I'm

830
00:38:08,760 --> 00:38:12,160
Speaker 3: surprised it's only moved at half point off to Derrick

831
00:38:12,200 --> 00:38:15,240
Speaker 3: Henry news. I wouldn't this one again. I think it's

832
00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:17,279
Speaker 3: seven and a half. I wouldn't be surprised if it

833
00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:21,200
Speaker 3: creeps up closer to ten as we get closer to kickoff,

834
00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:24,879
Speaker 3: or especially if the public's down early. I think they're

835
00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:26,640
Speaker 3: just gonna look at the game and go, oh, the

836
00:38:26,719 --> 00:38:30,440
Speaker 3: Rams at home against this Titans defense. They're gonna cruise.

837
00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:33,080
Speaker 3: Derrick Henry isn't a part of the team. You know,

838
00:38:33,160 --> 00:38:34,920
Speaker 3: he's out for the year. He's such a big part

839
00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:36,480
Speaker 3: of their offense and not gonna be able to move

840
00:38:36,520 --> 00:38:39,880
Speaker 3: the ball. And you know the Rams they just traded

841
00:38:39,880 --> 00:38:42,120
Speaker 3: for Von Miller. I don't know yet if he's gonna

842
00:38:42,120 --> 00:38:45,200
Speaker 3: be able to play. Sometimes they need like a week

843
00:38:45,239 --> 00:38:49,160
Speaker 3: to figure things out. But I think with Derrick Henry

844
00:38:49,200 --> 00:38:51,719
Speaker 3: going down, and we see this all the time, I'll

845
00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:55,640
Speaker 3: love the Mike White game where a big player goes down,

846
00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:58,640
Speaker 3: and you know that week right after the team gets

847
00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:01,719
Speaker 3: up for them, you know, hey, we're bigger than just

848
00:39:01,719 --> 00:39:05,040
Speaker 3: this one player. Now, the week after the emotional get

849
00:39:05,120 --> 00:39:07,480
Speaker 3: up game, that's where you really see the impact. But

850
00:39:07,560 --> 00:39:10,120
Speaker 3: I wouldn't be shocked if Tennessee really comes to play

851
00:39:10,120 --> 00:39:14,759
Speaker 3: and quietly. Tennessee's defense, which has been so horrible, has

852
00:39:14,840 --> 00:39:17,440
Speaker 3: kind of been putting together some decent games.

853
00:39:17,520 --> 00:39:17,800
Speaker 2: Now.

854
00:39:18,000 --> 00:39:20,920
Speaker 3: They let up a decent amount of points against the Bills,

855
00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:23,359
Speaker 3: but they got the stops when they needed them, and

856
00:39:23,400 --> 00:39:26,160
Speaker 3: they held the Chiefs, which who knows if the Chiefs

857
00:39:26,160 --> 00:39:28,960
Speaker 3: are even good at this point right held the Chiefs

858
00:39:28,960 --> 00:39:31,560
Speaker 3: the three points at all, which seemed pretty good. So

859
00:39:31,600 --> 00:39:35,000
Speaker 3: their defense has has has gotten better here certainly.

860
00:39:35,280 --> 00:39:36,960
Speaker 1: And again the Colts game, you know they turned the

861
00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:39,120
Speaker 1: ball over in their own territory early right there, they

862
00:39:39,120 --> 00:39:42,440
Speaker 1: were down fourteen to nothing. But really, Titans, man, I mean,

863
00:39:42,680 --> 00:39:45,359
Speaker 1: this is why Sean, you and I we referenced it

864
00:39:45,400 --> 00:39:47,520
Speaker 1: on the first time you appeared on the podcast with

865
00:39:47,560 --> 00:39:49,880
Speaker 1: the Nick Sirianni sort of bet. That was the second

866
00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:52,479
Speaker 1: bet I took in the props bet draft that Sean

867
00:39:52,520 --> 00:39:54,600
Speaker 1: and I are in together. The first one I took.

868
00:39:54,680 --> 00:39:57,040
Speaker 1: Actually like the odds I like the most were the

869
00:39:57,080 --> 00:40:00,000
Speaker 1: Titans at maybe forty to one to win the Super

870
00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:04,000
Speaker 1: And part of it is because I think that the

871
00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:06,400
Speaker 1: whole is better than the sum of their parts, and

872
00:40:06,440 --> 00:40:09,720
Speaker 1: that they're very well coached. They find ways to stay

873
00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:13,000
Speaker 1: in games, they don't panic when they go down, and

874
00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:15,879
Speaker 1: I think that their defense lacks sort of the talent,

875
00:40:16,000 --> 00:40:17,799
Speaker 1: and that's why I think it's taken a little while

876
00:40:17,840 --> 00:40:19,839
Speaker 1: to gel. But it's a very good point that they

877
00:40:19,840 --> 00:40:21,520
Speaker 1: are playing a lot better now. We don't know if

878
00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:23,560
Speaker 1: Julio Jones is going to play here. You can't really

879
00:40:23,600 --> 00:40:26,520
Speaker 1: stop the Rams anyway. So frankly, fifty three and a

880
00:40:26,560 --> 00:40:29,600
Speaker 1: half I'm okay to go with the over, but I

881
00:40:29,920 --> 00:40:31,920
Speaker 1: do lean the Titans here when you're getting more than

882
00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:33,920
Speaker 1: a field goal. It is interesting though that it didn't

883
00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:35,840
Speaker 1: move that much in the look aheadline. I mean, I

884
00:40:35,880 --> 00:40:38,000
Speaker 1: get Adrian Peterson, you know, basically exactly.

885
00:40:38,320 --> 00:40:41,040
Speaker 3: It is funny there's only I think like three or

886
00:40:41,080 --> 00:40:43,680
Speaker 3: four guys that have more rushing yards all time than

887
00:40:43,719 --> 00:40:47,440
Speaker 3: Derrick Henry, and they ended up signing Adrian Peterson off

888
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:50,560
Speaker 3: the street. And quick quick fantasy note if you're looking

889
00:40:50,600 --> 00:40:54,520
Speaker 3: for a quarterback or you know, maybe an.

890
00:40:54,400 --> 00:40:56,400
Speaker 2: Interesting DFS showdown option.

891
00:40:57,000 --> 00:40:59,680
Speaker 3: I do think Tannehill, especially moving on in the rest

892
00:40:59,719 --> 00:41:02,799
Speaker 3: of the Sea, could be interesting because he's quietly one

893
00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:06,319
Speaker 3: of those quarterbacks that will get a couple sneaky rushing touchdowns.

894
00:41:06,680 --> 00:41:09,360
Speaker 3: So now you expect them to having to throw the

895
00:41:09,360 --> 00:41:12,759
Speaker 3: ball more and and I think who's gonna get those

896
00:41:12,800 --> 00:41:15,239
Speaker 3: goal one carries? You sure you're gonna give some to

897
00:41:15,280 --> 00:41:17,840
Speaker 3: Adrian Peterson, but I wouldn't be surprised if some of

898
00:41:17,840 --> 00:41:21,200
Speaker 3: those touches inside the five end up going to Ryan Tannehill.

899
00:41:21,239 --> 00:41:25,520
Speaker 3: I'lla like some bootleg stuff or some QB sneaks. So

900
00:41:25,840 --> 00:41:28,440
Speaker 3: he's kind of an interesting season long fantasy player I

901
00:41:28,520 --> 00:41:29,080
Speaker 3: think as well.

902
00:41:29,800 --> 00:41:32,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mentioned this the last time you were on.

903
00:41:32,360 --> 00:41:34,480
Speaker 1: But if you ever want to know why, perhaps you

904
00:41:34,480 --> 00:41:37,759
Speaker 1: should be taking DFS advice from Sean. You can just

905
00:41:37,800 --> 00:41:38,359
Speaker 1: google his.

906
00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:40,920
Speaker 2: Name and DraftKings Baby, God bless.

907
00:41:40,719 --> 00:41:45,279
Speaker 1: Him, you'll learn why. I'll last game here Monday night

908
00:41:45,320 --> 00:41:48,080
Speaker 1: football Bears are getting six and a half in Pittsburgh

909
00:41:48,120 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 1: against the Steelers. Total is a minuscule for Sean. I

910
00:41:51,160 --> 00:41:54,040
Speaker 1: don't know about you. There's a very clear for me

911
00:41:54,480 --> 00:41:57,719
Speaker 1: time when you back Mike Tomlin led teams and time

912
00:41:57,760 --> 00:42:01,720
Speaker 1: when you fade Mike Tomlin led teams and at home

913
00:42:02,239 --> 00:42:05,320
Speaker 1: with kind of laying a big spread does not strike

914
00:42:05,360 --> 00:42:07,000
Speaker 1: me as a time where you back Mike Tomlin.

915
00:42:07,040 --> 00:42:11,399
Speaker 3: Be Yeah, it's really tough to imagine this Steelers team

916
00:42:11,520 --> 00:42:16,160
Speaker 3: putting up enough points to cover any spread as a favorite, right,

917
00:42:17,640 --> 00:42:20,240
Speaker 3: But then again, yeah, and I do think the Bears

918
00:42:20,360 --> 00:42:25,479
Speaker 3: kind of figured out something offensively, now, granted they blew

919
00:42:25,480 --> 00:42:30,320
Speaker 3: some plays defensively. I would keep an eye on Khalil

920
00:42:30,360 --> 00:42:34,279
Speaker 3: max injury. I thought he was trending towards playing last week.

921
00:42:34,719 --> 00:42:37,360
Speaker 3: Kind of one of the reasons I like the Bears there.

922
00:42:37,239 --> 00:42:39,719
Speaker 3: He ended up being a late scratch he's dealing with

923
00:42:39,760 --> 00:42:42,279
Speaker 3: a weird foot injury. But they have a team hicks back.

924
00:42:42,400 --> 00:42:45,440
Speaker 3: He's a big part of their defense, and I think

925
00:42:45,480 --> 00:42:47,240
Speaker 3: their defense matches up pretty decent.

926
00:42:47,560 --> 00:42:49,960
Speaker 2: This to me is just gonna be an ugly slog

927
00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:52,080
Speaker 2: of a game that feels like a field goal.

928
00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:56,280
Speaker 3: So if you can get more than that and four, five, six,

929
00:42:56,440 --> 00:43:00,120
Speaker 3: even if it gets up to seven, But I I

930
00:43:00,280 --> 00:43:02,840
Speaker 3: worry that they're gonna have trouble getting action on the

931
00:43:02,840 --> 00:43:06,319
Speaker 3: Steelers at six and a half. I think I think

932
00:43:06,360 --> 00:43:09,200
Speaker 3: maybe the betting public is out on justin fields right now,

933
00:43:09,880 --> 00:43:12,040
Speaker 3: and Pittsburgh maybe a public team.

934
00:43:12,080 --> 00:43:14,120
Speaker 2: But have you seen Big Ben throw the ball?

935
00:43:14,160 --> 00:43:17,520
Speaker 3: That would be my question just right before you click

936
00:43:17,600 --> 00:43:20,160
Speaker 3: that Pittsburgh minus six and a half or minus seven

937
00:43:20,239 --> 00:43:24,080
Speaker 3: if it gets up there, just remember, you know, just

938
00:43:24,120 --> 00:43:26,719
Speaker 3: watch him throw the football in that in that Browns game.

939
00:43:26,760 --> 00:43:29,759
Speaker 3: And I had the Steelers yea money line because I

940
00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:33,759
Speaker 3: don't know that spot. But you're right at home laying.

941
00:43:34,040 --> 00:43:36,400
Speaker 2: This is a massive number for this team right now.

942
00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:39,799
Speaker 1: Way too much, way too like there's just no way

943
00:43:39,840 --> 00:43:42,279
Speaker 1: and I don't feel comfortable, like hopefully and maybe it

944
00:43:42,320 --> 00:43:45,000
Speaker 1: was because there was no Matt and Neggy. They they certainly.

945
00:43:45,000 --> 00:43:48,480
Speaker 1: The game plan was good for Dustin Fields. It accentuated

946
00:43:48,520 --> 00:43:50,600
Speaker 1: what he does well. He's good on the run, on

947
00:43:50,760 --> 00:43:54,240
Speaker 1: roll designed rollouts. They had four of them. They completed

948
00:43:54,280 --> 00:43:57,759
Speaker 1: all the passes, including the touchdown. He finally ran like

949
00:43:57,960 --> 00:44:01,040
Speaker 1: he has use his legs more. It's okay to do that.

950
00:44:01,120 --> 00:44:03,360
Speaker 1: It's okay to let the guy out. Uh So it

951
00:44:03,440 --> 00:44:05,320
Speaker 1: was good to see and hopefully they do. Pittsburgh's a

952
00:44:05,440 --> 00:44:08,320
Speaker 1: very strong defense obviously, so who knows if you regress

953
00:44:08,360 --> 00:44:10,360
Speaker 1: a little bit, But you can't lay six and a

954
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:12,880
Speaker 1: half points man with the Steelers, and especially in the

955
00:44:12,880 --> 00:44:15,000
Speaker 1: spot where they're, you know, their favorite at home in

956
00:44:15,000 --> 00:44:17,080
Speaker 1: a game everybody thinks they're going to roll. No way.

957
00:44:17,239 --> 00:44:19,360
Speaker 1: This is just I'm not running to take the Bears,

958
00:44:19,400 --> 00:44:21,120
Speaker 1: like I'm not, like, oh god, but there's no way

959
00:44:21,239 --> 00:44:23,239
Speaker 1: I could take the Steelers like I would sooner tease

960
00:44:23,280 --> 00:44:25,680
Speaker 1: the Bears up to you know, twelve and a half

961
00:44:25,800 --> 00:44:27,640
Speaker 1: or whatever, then I would tease them down to basically

962
00:44:27,640 --> 00:44:28,000
Speaker 1: a pick.

963
00:44:28,080 --> 00:44:31,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, And and they can't make this total low enough.

964
00:44:32,160 --> 00:44:36,200
Speaker 3: I don't know, I don't know what yeah. Yeah, I mean,

965
00:44:36,719 --> 00:44:39,040
Speaker 3: normally you don't take a lot of under forties, but

966
00:44:40,040 --> 00:44:42,560
Speaker 3: this to me, feels a lot like that, like that

967
00:44:42,680 --> 00:44:45,120
Speaker 3: Seattle Pittsburgh game we just saw a couple of weeks

968
00:44:45,160 --> 00:44:48,960
Speaker 3: ago where it's ugly even if it gets over to.

969
00:44:49,280 --> 00:44:53,880
Speaker 1: Or this browns the brown Yeah, Pittsburgh.

970
00:44:52,560 --> 00:44:55,480
Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, it could be like seventeen sixteen feels like

971
00:44:55,520 --> 00:44:57,200
Speaker 3: a very realistic score for this game.

972
00:44:58,040 --> 00:45:01,240
Speaker 1: Absolutely, I agree. I lean the under as well. With that, Sean,

973
00:45:01,719 --> 00:45:03,640
Speaker 1: always great to talk to you and catch up. I

974
00:45:03,640 --> 00:45:06,720
Speaker 1: appreciate you making time in the scheduling in a difficult

975
00:45:06,760 --> 00:45:09,800
Speaker 1: week for me. So just remind everybody all your good stuff,

976
00:45:09,840 --> 00:45:11,520
Speaker 1: man that you're putting out. I love your content. Just

977
00:45:11,600 --> 00:45:12,440
Speaker 1: mind everybody where.

978
00:45:12,280 --> 00:45:14,480
Speaker 3: They Yeah, give us a follow on Twitter at Gambling

979
00:45:14,520 --> 00:45:17,920
Speaker 3: Podcasts or follow me at Shawn T. Green and you

980
00:45:17,960 --> 00:45:20,960
Speaker 3: can just go to Sports Gambling podcast dot com. We're

981
00:45:20,960 --> 00:45:24,200
Speaker 3: putting out podcasts every day of the week covering all

982
00:45:24,200 --> 00:45:27,080
Speaker 3: the sports. The flagship show, the Sports Gamling Podcast, I

983
00:45:27,160 --> 00:45:33,440
Speaker 3: co host with my buddy Ryan Kramer, NFL, DFS, college football, NBA,

984
00:45:33,480 --> 00:45:36,600
Speaker 3: We got an NBA show dedicated to the NBA. Just

985
00:45:36,680 --> 00:45:39,799
Speaker 3: launched our NHL pod. So so much going on.

986
00:45:39,840 --> 00:45:41,680
Speaker 2: If you like betting on sports, come hang out with us.

987
00:45:41,719 --> 00:45:46,120
Speaker 3: It's a lot of fun sports gambling podcast dot com.

988
00:45:46,239 --> 00:45:48,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's great stuff over there, guys. You definitely should

989
00:45:48,440 --> 00:45:50,560
Speaker 1: check it out. All right. In the meantime, I'm gonna

990
00:45:50,560 --> 00:45:52,839
Speaker 1: take a little break a couple of days. Bogman will

991
00:45:52,840 --> 00:45:56,120
Speaker 1: be back. Joe's off for the rest of the week,

992
00:45:56,200 --> 00:45:58,600
Speaker 1: so Bogmin will be back doing a college football preview

993
00:45:58,640 --> 00:46:00,960
Speaker 1: as he usually does. I'll be back on Thursday with

994
00:46:01,040 --> 00:46:03,640
Speaker 1: our best bets for the weekend. For the NFL, I'll

995
00:46:03,640 --> 00:46:22,800
Speaker 1: talk to them m