1 00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:16,560 Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you welcome into a Tuesday 2 00:00:16,600 --> 00:00:19,400 Speaker 1: morning episode of the Daily Juice podcast. My name is 3 00:00:19,400 --> 00:00:22,120 Speaker 1: Matt Parolta. Guys can follow me across all socials at 4 00:00:22,160 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Sports Talk Matt, and I've got some good news and 5 00:00:25,840 --> 00:00:30,400 Speaker 1: bad news. The bad news is we didn't win any 6 00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:34,000 Speaker 1: money yesterday. The good news is we didn't lose any 7 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:37,040 Speaker 1: money either, as we went one in one. But the 8 00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:41,640 Speaker 1: even money eight over does not come in. We lose that, 9 00:00:41,680 --> 00:00:44,479 Speaker 1: but the Red Sox team total flies over, so that 10 00:00:44,680 --> 00:00:47,520 Speaker 1: was a win there. So win one unit, lose one unit, 11 00:00:47,600 --> 00:00:50,440 Speaker 1: and we are flat on the day for a Monday. 12 00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:53,840 Speaker 1: So given the way we have run, given the way 13 00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:56,080 Speaker 1: I've gone in baseball, I'm gonna take that as a 14 00:00:56,080 --> 00:00:58,680 Speaker 1: pretty big win. I like that. I'll take it. We 15 00:00:58,760 --> 00:01:00,840 Speaker 1: moved to a Tuesday where I have two bets for 16 00:01:00,920 --> 00:01:06,640 Speaker 1: us going on Tuesday. Now, I will tell you there 17 00:01:06,640 --> 00:01:08,919 Speaker 1: are bets that I'm leaning on like I was leaning 18 00:01:08,959 --> 00:01:13,039 Speaker 1: Cardinals yesterday the Cardinals lost. I'm leaning on the Red 19 00:01:13,080 --> 00:01:16,800 Speaker 1: Sox team total again to the over. At the time 20 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:19,480 Speaker 1: of taping, there is no number up for the Red 21 00:01:19,520 --> 00:01:23,600 Speaker 1: Sox here today. So Sox team total it was four 22 00:01:23,600 --> 00:01:26,400 Speaker 1: and a half five and a half probably not four 23 00:01:26,400 --> 00:01:28,360 Speaker 1: and a half. Yes, I probably like it to go 24 00:01:28,400 --> 00:01:32,399 Speaker 1: over again. I think there's some decent value on the 25 00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:36,000 Speaker 1: Phillies and the Twins to go under eight with Zach 26 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:38,600 Speaker 1: Wheeler on the mound for the Phillies, But I don't 27 00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:41,280 Speaker 1: like it enough. The Twins have been an over team 28 00:01:41,319 --> 00:01:43,800 Speaker 1: at home, and I'm a little bit suspect and skeptical 29 00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:47,680 Speaker 1: it is Zach Wheeler though, so a little bit skeptical there. 30 00:01:48,520 --> 00:01:50,560 Speaker 1: So what am I going to bet today? Well, it 31 00:01:50,640 --> 00:01:54,840 Speaker 1: is Paul Skeen's day, Paul Skean's against the Cardinals up 32 00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:58,440 Speaker 1: against lance Lynn. This is almost as much of a 33 00:01:58,480 --> 00:02:02,320 Speaker 1: fade on lance Lynn that it is a bet on 34 00:02:02,520 --> 00:02:06,600 Speaker 1: Paul Skins. So lance Lynn, in his last time out 35 00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:09,200 Speaker 1: at home, went six innings. He gave up two earned runs. 36 00:02:10,000 --> 00:02:12,520 Speaker 1: His last road start, though he only lasted two and 37 00:02:12,600 --> 00:02:15,360 Speaker 1: two thirds, give up eleven runs, ten of them earned 38 00:02:16,080 --> 00:02:20,120 Speaker 1: three home runs to the Washington Nationals on the road. 39 00:02:21,280 --> 00:02:24,680 Speaker 1: In the roadstart before that, against the Miami Marlins nine 40 00:02:24,720 --> 00:02:27,400 Speaker 1: to eight final, he went five and a third, gave 41 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:31,920 Speaker 1: up five earned runs, six runs overall and ten hits 42 00:02:32,840 --> 00:02:36,200 Speaker 1: for lance lynn last two starts on the road have 43 00:02:36,280 --> 00:02:38,679 Speaker 1: been really bad. Last two starts on the road have 44 00:02:38,760 --> 00:02:41,280 Speaker 1: been lost. Well, I guess the Marlins game wasn't on 45 00:02:41,320 --> 00:02:45,600 Speaker 1: the run line, but game go over and hit hard. 46 00:02:46,760 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 1: So we know about Paul Skins, right, we know what 47 00:02:49,000 --> 00:02:52,960 Speaker 1: this guy when he brings what he sets up. I mean, 48 00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:57,720 Speaker 1: he's just he's electric, right, Paul Skins. I leaned towards 49 00:02:57,760 --> 00:03:00,720 Speaker 1: the over in this game. Okay, simply because of Lance Lynn, 50 00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:05,600 Speaker 1: But since I like Skeens and I like the Pirates, 51 00:03:05,639 --> 00:03:08,520 Speaker 1: I like the over. I think there's a value play 52 00:03:08,520 --> 00:03:10,920 Speaker 1: to be had here on the Pirates on the run 53 00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:13,880 Speaker 1: line at plus one twenty so Skeens has a two 54 00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:16,200 Speaker 1: point eight three ERA. At home, he's a three to 55 00:03:16,280 --> 00:03:18,720 Speaker 1: zero record, a two fifty four posing batting average, eleven 56 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:22,720 Speaker 1: earned runs in thirty five innings worth of work. When 57 00:03:22,720 --> 00:03:25,200 Speaker 1: he first started in the big leagues, he was really 58 00:03:25,240 --> 00:03:29,840 Speaker 1: going over a ton of games ten, nine, nine to three, seven, six, ten, two, 59 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:33,519 Speaker 1: ten six. Those were his first five starts. But since 60 00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:36,240 Speaker 1: it's been two to one, four to one, a three 61 00:03:36,320 --> 00:03:38,760 Speaker 1: to one loss, a two to one loss, a fourteen 62 00:03:38,800 --> 00:03:41,280 Speaker 1: to two win, and a one nothing win on the 63 00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:45,680 Speaker 1: road against Milwaukee. You can come in and you can 64 00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:48,360 Speaker 1: bet if you want on the Pirates and just on 65 00:03:48,400 --> 00:03:50,400 Speaker 1: the money line if you want, but it's minus one 66 00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:54,360 Speaker 1: seventy five point eighty. It's expensive. This is a big game, 67 00:03:54,400 --> 00:03:58,240 Speaker 1: it's a big series. But given that lance Lynn's been bad, 68 00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:01,240 Speaker 1: and given that the Pirates off has been hot, and 69 00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:06,120 Speaker 1: the Pirates as a team extremely hot going back before 70 00:04:06,160 --> 00:04:12,880 Speaker 1: the break, you look at them, I mean they've won one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, 71 00:04:13,200 --> 00:04:18,240 Speaker 1: nine of eleven games. It's pretty darn good for the Pirates. 72 00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:21,520 Speaker 1: I think he continues here. They took two or three 73 00:04:21,560 --> 00:04:24,280 Speaker 1: against the Phillies. They set the pitching up here. They 74 00:04:24,279 --> 00:04:26,640 Speaker 1: had Mitch Keller going yesterday. He was great. Here comes 75 00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:30,200 Speaker 1: Paul Skeins. We're gonna run line it Pirates run line 76 00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:36,159 Speaker 1: at plus one twenty for one unit. Second bet, the 77 00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:39,480 Speaker 1: Miami Marlins are gonna call up from Triple A Jacksonville 78 00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:43,680 Speaker 1: a pitcher named Kyle Tyler. It's going to be his 79 00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:47,520 Speaker 1: fifth start in Major League Baseball for him in his career, 80 00:04:48,160 --> 00:04:50,560 Speaker 1: and he's gonna face an Orioles roster and an Oil 81 00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:54,159 Speaker 1: Orioles lineup that can just simply rake the Orioles on 82 00:04:54,200 --> 00:04:57,719 Speaker 1: the road. This year are twenty seven, seventeen and three 83 00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:02,200 Speaker 1: to the over on the road at home. The Miami 84 00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:05,440 Speaker 1: Marlins are the number one team to the over on 85 00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:10,040 Speaker 1: the year at thirty five, sixteen and two. That's nearly 86 00:05:10,120 --> 00:05:13,040 Speaker 1: sixty nine percent of the time the Marlins are going 87 00:05:13,240 --> 00:05:16,640 Speaker 1: over in their games. They lost six to four in 88 00:05:16,680 --> 00:05:19,960 Speaker 1: their last game to the Mets at home, and this 89 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:23,560 Speaker 1: Orioles team is thirty and seventeen on the road. And 90 00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:26,239 Speaker 1: this Orioles team, really they've coming off of a loss 91 00:05:26,279 --> 00:05:28,720 Speaker 1: to Texas three to two, but they won nine to 92 00:05:28,760 --> 00:05:32,599 Speaker 1: one in eight four in the two games previous six 93 00:05:32,640 --> 00:05:35,600 Speaker 1: to five against the Yankees. So three of the last 94 00:05:35,920 --> 00:05:39,599 Speaker 1: four games for the Orioles have gone over. Not for 95 00:05:39,680 --> 00:05:44,320 Speaker 1: the Marlins four to two, one nothing, sixty four three 96 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:48,200 Speaker 1: two ten six. So just two of the last five 97 00:05:48,240 --> 00:05:51,240 Speaker 1: games have gone over for the Marlins. But given the 98 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:54,880 Speaker 1: fact that this lineup is really good, a rookie is 99 00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:57,960 Speaker 1: going here, I like a team total bet as well. 100 00:05:58,000 --> 00:05:59,600 Speaker 1: If you want to kind of double down on this 101 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:03,080 Speaker 1: and get involved with an Orioles team total, I don't 102 00:06:03,120 --> 00:06:06,719 Speaker 1: hate that at all. If you want to find it, 103 00:06:06,760 --> 00:06:09,400 Speaker 1: is it out there? No, not, there's no listing at 104 00:06:09,400 --> 00:06:12,000 Speaker 1: the moment because of the fact that they have to 105 00:06:12,000 --> 00:06:15,640 Speaker 1: officially call up the rookie. So once that does come out, 106 00:06:16,040 --> 00:06:19,279 Speaker 1: I mean, I don't mind team total at all for 107 00:06:19,680 --> 00:06:22,560 Speaker 1: the Orioles to come in and you know, maybe grab 108 00:06:22,600 --> 00:06:27,240 Speaker 1: an over four and a half team total for the Orioles. 109 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:30,080 Speaker 1: Don't mind that bet at all. But I'm in instead 110 00:06:30,120 --> 00:06:31,640 Speaker 1: gonna come in here. I'm gonna bet the over eight 111 00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:34,919 Speaker 1: and a half for this Marlin's. We need to score 112 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:36,920 Speaker 1: some runs themselves to get us there, but I think 113 00:06:36,960 --> 00:06:40,400 Speaker 1: that they will here. Not a horrible pitch on Albert 114 00:06:40,440 --> 00:06:44,200 Speaker 1: Suarez going for the Orioles five and three with a 115 00:06:44,240 --> 00:06:46,919 Speaker 1: two point eight two ERA. He's got a three point 116 00:06:46,960 --> 00:06:49,719 Speaker 1: three one ERA though on the road, a two forty 117 00:06:49,800 --> 00:06:52,560 Speaker 1: eight posting batting average, thirteen earned runs and thirty five 118 00:06:52,560 --> 00:06:54,919 Speaker 1: and a third inning's worth of work three home runs 119 00:06:54,920 --> 00:06:59,120 Speaker 1: for him. I'll twenty seven strikeouts to seventeen walks on 120 00:06:59,200 --> 00:07:02,120 Speaker 1: the road for Albert Suarez. In his last start on 121 00:07:02,200 --> 00:07:04,840 Speaker 1: the road, he pitched pretty well six innings, two earned runs, 122 00:07:04,839 --> 00:07:07,640 Speaker 1: and a three to two win over the A's. He 123 00:07:07,720 --> 00:07:11,120 Speaker 1: got crushed at Houston, though, gave up five runs and 124 00:07:11,160 --> 00:07:14,040 Speaker 1: an eight to one loss to the Astros in five 125 00:07:14,080 --> 00:07:16,520 Speaker 1: innings against the Yankees on the road. He went three 126 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:19,080 Speaker 1: and two thirds to give up three earned runs there. 127 00:07:19,200 --> 00:07:22,080 Speaker 1: So two good starts are two bad starts and one 128 00:07:22,080 --> 00:07:23,960 Speaker 1: good start on the road. But Oakland is not really 129 00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:26,160 Speaker 1: a good hitting team, like we know, so maybe a 130 00:07:26,160 --> 00:07:28,640 Speaker 1: little bit of fools goal there. Over eight and a 131 00:07:28,680 --> 00:07:32,160 Speaker 1: half for one point one units between the Orioles and 132 00:07:32,440 --> 00:07:36,760 Speaker 1: the Marlins, all right, So just two bets here until 133 00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:39,160 Speaker 1: we get to the weekend. We have a big UFC 134 00:07:39,240 --> 00:07:41,600 Speaker 1: card coming up this weekend. We have Olympics, so we 135 00:07:41,600 --> 00:07:44,200 Speaker 1: can bet on coming up this weekend. Like we'll have 136 00:07:44,440 --> 00:07:47,040 Speaker 1: some other things that we'll play. Other bets we'll get 137 00:07:47,080 --> 00:07:49,960 Speaker 1: into for us, but we're just gonna kind of limp 138 00:07:50,000 --> 00:07:52,520 Speaker 1: our way through this until we get ourselves right in 139 00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:54,920 Speaker 1: and kind of you stem the bleeding a little bit 140 00:07:54,960 --> 00:07:57,320 Speaker 1: here as to what's been happening. It has not been 141 00:07:57,360 --> 00:08:00,679 Speaker 1: a fun month of July, So not gonna get too crazy. 142 00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:02,480 Speaker 1: Just two bets for us here. After a one and 143 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:05,400 Speaker 1: one night last night, pirates run line at plus one 144 00:08:05,560 --> 00:08:08,280 Speaker 1: twenty and over eight and a half for the Orioles, 145 00:08:08,360 --> 00:08:12,760 Speaker 1: Orioles and the Marlins that at minus one ten minus 146 00:08:12,760 --> 00:08:15,120 Speaker 1: Matt Paroli, you guys can follow me across all socials 147 00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:19,080 Speaker 1: at Sports Talk Matt every single morning, whether it be 148 00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:22,120 Speaker 1: audio or video. Dil Juice Podcast I was being brought 149 00:08:22,160 --> 00:08:37,360 Speaker 1: to you by benningpros dot com