WEBVTT - War Update 0:00:01.720 --> 0:00:04.960 All the media. 0:00:05.720 --> 0:00:08.800 Welcome to the War Update and Update about War. I'm 0:00:08.800 --> 0:00:13.360 your host Miya Wong with the is is James and Robert. 0:00:13.680 --> 0:00:15.800 War never changes, et cetera, et cetera. 0:00:16.000 --> 0:00:21.079 Yeah, except for Yeah, I mean all the time changes. 0:00:21.760 --> 0:00:22.919 Yeah, except for all the changes. 0:00:23.840 --> 0:00:24.280 Yeah. 0:00:24.400 --> 0:00:26.360 I think it's a line from the film. 0:00:26.560 --> 0:00:26.799 Yeah. 0:00:26.840 --> 0:00:29.319 I mean the most important part doesn't change, which is 0:00:29.600 --> 0:00:33.800 most things in a proper place at right time, right, 0:00:34.200 --> 0:00:37.320 That's that's that's what determines war winning. But the things 0:00:37.320 --> 0:00:38.600 that matter are what change. 0:00:38.680 --> 0:00:42.239 Yeah. Yeah. Also what doesn't change? Not great fun for 0:00:42.320 --> 0:00:44.680 the most part, and un enjoyable way to spend your time. 0:00:44.760 --> 0:00:47.360 Not enjoyable except for for the chunk of people who 0:00:47.360 --> 0:00:48.760 tend to make most of the calls. 0:00:49.360 --> 0:00:53.480 Yeah. Yeah, enjoyable a lot. Yeah, enjoyable. You're an old 0:00:53.520 --> 0:00:55.680 guy in a big house. Yeah. 0:00:55.720 --> 0:01:00.120 So we're gonna be talking about three wars. Yeah. I 0:01:00.120 --> 0:01:02.560 think we're gonna We're gonna lead off with the India 0:01:02.640 --> 0:01:05.480 Pakistan war, and then we're gonna do the other two 0:01:05.520 --> 0:01:08.119 wars in some order you want to do you want 0:01:08.120 --> 0:01:09.640 to announce the other two wars? 0:01:10.040 --> 0:01:12.920 Yeah, we're gonna talk about the end of the of 0:01:13.000 --> 0:01:16.760 the armed conflict between the PKK and the Turkey State. 0:01:16.880 --> 0:01:17.920 Maybe mm hmm. 0:01:18.680 --> 0:01:20.959 Yeah, we'll be talking about Yemen a little bit. 0:01:21.600 --> 0:01:25.640 Uh yeah, man, yeah, let's let's Oh god, let's do this. Okay. 0:01:25.680 --> 0:01:29.280 So good news missed is that. Look, we do have 0:01:29.319 --> 0:01:31.240 good news, which is that we have not all died 0:01:31.240 --> 0:01:33.120 in the nuclear fires. I know there are some of 0:01:33.160 --> 0:01:35.280 you for whom you were very disappointed, but we're all 0:01:35.280 --> 0:01:38.559 still here for better or for worse, I mean for better, 0:01:38.880 --> 0:01:42.360 Like I'm very glad we didn't all dine in nuclear fire. Yeah, 0:01:42.400 --> 0:01:45.040 so let's let's let's talk about the recent war between 0:01:45.080 --> 0:01:50.040 India and Pakistan. Lasted about four days, so all right. Well, 0:01:50.560 --> 0:01:53.000 we talked about this a little bit before. The very 0:01:53.120 --> 0:01:56.520 basic sort of elements of this conflict. We talked about 0:01:56.560 --> 0:01:59.440 partition on the show before. When India sort of gain 0:01:59.520 --> 0:02:03.760 in dependence from the British Empire, it split into Indian Pakistan. 0:02:03.960 --> 0:02:08.320 Millions died, horrific sort of conflict, people killing each other, 0:02:08.520 --> 0:02:13.680 like mass migrations across the borders. Very very very unstable 0:02:13.720 --> 0:02:15.959 set of borders get set up that change a bunch 0:02:16.000 --> 0:02:21.000 of times. And one of the aspects of this sort 0:02:21.040 --> 0:02:26.080 of whole thing is that Kashmir was supposed to be 0:02:26.280 --> 0:02:30.600 this independent state and then through an extremely convoluted process 0:02:30.680 --> 0:02:33.280 that I am again once again pushing off to another 0:02:33.320 --> 0:02:37.679 episode with like actual good experts on this, because this 0:02:37.760 --> 0:02:42.399 is a very very convoluted thing. But the short version 0:02:42.440 --> 0:02:44.080 of it basically is that this series is sort of 0:02:44.120 --> 0:02:49.080 escalating conflicts end ends basically in a short war and 0:02:49.120 --> 0:02:52.760 then kasher being split into between India and Pakistan, where 0:02:53.840 --> 0:02:57.000 like about a third roughly of Kashmir ends up under 0:02:57.040 --> 0:02:59.799 Pakistani control and then about two thirds ends up under Indian. 0:03:00.880 --> 0:03:04.160 Now there's an agreement signed by sort of Kashmir's ruler 0:03:04.160 --> 0:03:07.760 at the time to let India like annex like two 0:03:07.760 --> 0:03:11.600 thirds of Kashmir or so the actual dividing line basically 0:03:11.960 --> 0:03:16.240 ends up being like where the armies stopped. You know, 0:03:16.360 --> 0:03:20.000 it changes over the years. But the important thing here, 0:03:20.120 --> 0:03:23.400 right is that Kashmir is supposed to have had an 0:03:23.400 --> 0:03:28.760 independence referendum, Right that was like, yeah, the deal now 0:03:29.280 --> 0:03:31.600 in a move that is like Genny Winey even more 0:03:31.639 --> 0:03:34.239 stunning than the ship that like Indonesia pulled in West 0:03:34.240 --> 0:03:38.480 Papua so ins Papua, right, like Indonesia pulls a like 0:03:38.560 --> 0:03:43.120 fake independence referendum here, they've never even done that, like 0:03:43.440 --> 0:03:46.080 the never never pretended to have the referendum, and they're 0:03:46.120 --> 0:03:46.640 supposed to have. 0:03:47.120 --> 0:03:50.720 It's like a sub assad level attempt at democracy, you know. 0:03:50.960 --> 0:03:53.880 Yeah, Yeah, they're just like nope, each ship like you're you're, 0:03:53.960 --> 0:03:57.680 you're basically a colony now. Now as as part of 0:03:57.720 --> 0:04:02.920 this deal, right, Kashmir got a pretty substantial amount of autonomy. 0:04:03.160 --> 0:04:04.720 I'm gonna read there. There's actually there's a very good 0:04:04.760 --> 0:04:08.680 Jacobin one of the rare good Jacobin articles, which usually 0:04:08.720 --> 0:04:11.320 tend to be the ones written like not by the 0:04:11.360 --> 0:04:12.640 American Jocobin writers. 0:04:12.720 --> 0:04:17.880 Yeah, I'm freelancer who made fifty US dollars for writing. Yeah, 0:04:18.000 --> 0:04:19.320 and that's their rate to goun up. 0:04:19.600 --> 0:04:22.279 Yeah, this is written by Irish k And I'm gonna 0:04:22.320 --> 0:04:25.600 quote here from this article. Quote central to the instrument 0:04:25.640 --> 0:04:28.520 of a session. It's the document that the ruler of 0:04:28.560 --> 0:04:31.040 Kashmir signed is sort of Likedhan Kashmir ver to India. 0:04:32.240 --> 0:04:36.320 Quote what's the constitutional provision of Article three seventy which 0:04:36.320 --> 0:04:40.240 assured the Kashmiri people autonomy over all matters besides those 0:04:40.279 --> 0:04:45.120 pretending to defense, external affairs and communications. The article was 0:04:45.120 --> 0:04:47.960 supposed to be temporary and provisional, because there was a 0:04:48.000 --> 0:04:50.400 promise of a referendum by which the people of Kashmir 0:04:50.440 --> 0:04:53.799 would decide their own political fate to remain part of India, 0:04:53.880 --> 0:04:56.280 to join up with Pakistan, or become an independent state. 0:04:56.800 --> 0:04:59.360 But as you've already mentioned, this has never happened. I mean, 0:04:59.360 --> 0:05:01.440 they didn't even do it, sham one. It just literally 0:05:01.640 --> 0:05:06.400 didn't ever happen. And India has just been imposing its 0:05:06.440 --> 0:05:08.320 rule in Kashmir ever since. And I mean it's also 0:05:08.360 --> 0:05:10.560 worth pointing out that Pakistan has also been imposing its 0:05:10.600 --> 0:05:14.599 rule on like it's part of Kashmir. But the Indian 0:05:14.600 --> 0:05:18.680 occupation has become increasingly brutal basically since it's starting, it's 0:05:18.680 --> 0:05:21.360 just continued to get worse and worse, and it is 0:05:21.560 --> 0:05:23.839 sort of a full blown military occupation, right There's just 0:05:23.839 --> 0:05:25.680 like a bunch of fucking Indian troops in the street. 0:05:26.680 --> 0:05:29.559 And as it becomes clear that India is like never 0:05:29.800 --> 0:05:32.240 going to let Kashmir be free or just even let 0:05:32.240 --> 0:05:37.000 the Kashmi people decide what they want, Milton struggles and sews. 0:05:37.080 --> 0:05:39.560 And as Kate points out, it's originally spearheaded by the 0:05:39.600 --> 0:05:42.680 secular Jamu Kashmir Liberation Front, and this group has just 0:05:42.680 --> 0:05:46.120 sort of wiped out because it wanted an independent Kashmir. 0:05:46.920 --> 0:05:50.359 And this was convenient to neither the Indian or the 0:05:50.360 --> 0:05:54.039 Pakistani government because Pakistan and Pakistan talks about this a 0:05:54.040 --> 0:05:56.560 lot internatually, Like one of their sort of international political 0:05:56.600 --> 0:05:58.640 things is like, yeah, we want free Kashmir. But it's like, no, 0:05:58.760 --> 0:06:01.000 you don't. You want Kashmir be part of Pakistan. That 0:06:01.080 --> 0:06:03.640 is not the same thing as it being free, like 0:06:04.760 --> 0:06:08.280 very clear about this, yeah and so and so Pakistan's 0:06:08.279 --> 0:06:12.640 engagement towards Kashmir has always been about this, right, It's 0:06:12.640 --> 0:06:15.520 always been about making sure that there wouldn't be any 0:06:15.560 --> 0:06:19.160 kind of sort of independent Kashmir. And so both India 0:06:19.160 --> 0:06:24.120 and Pakistan crush this sort of secular KASHMIRI independence group 0:06:24.200 --> 0:06:26.919 that happen spearheading a lot of this, and over time 0:06:26.960 --> 0:06:30.440 Pakistan is sort of through it, through a complicated series 0:06:30.480 --> 0:06:33.160 of things, has sorted a lot of control over a 0:06:33.200 --> 0:06:36.480 lot of these groups or has like intelligence relations with them. 0:06:36.880 --> 0:06:42.360 Is SI kind of notoriously works with militant groups like 0:06:42.640 --> 0:06:45.640 the I s. I is the group in Afghanistan that 0:06:46.080 --> 0:06:49.840 like really full on did the thing that everyone thinks 0:06:50.080 --> 0:06:52.800 that the US and the Saudi sort of did in 0:06:53.040 --> 0:06:55.120 in terms of like funding the worst parts of the Mujahadeen, 0:06:55.320 --> 0:06:58.760 like that was really mostly Pakistani intelligence. Yeah, so like 0:06:58.920 --> 0:07:01.160 they have a lot of relations with the bunch of 0:07:01.200 --> 0:07:05.039 people who absolutely fucking suck, and they've you know, sort 0:07:05.040 --> 0:07:07.719 of used a lot of these a lot of these 0:07:07.760 --> 0:07:10.080 groups as like a way to sort of poke a 0:07:10.120 --> 0:07:13.160 stick in India and also you know, like attempt to 0:07:13.280 --> 0:07:16.680 obtain their sort of like domestic political goals of like 0:07:16.760 --> 0:07:19.960 weakening India for the real sort of internal stability, which 0:07:20.000 --> 0:07:22.680 we'll come back to later, well, the interior's ability of 0:07:22.760 --> 0:07:25.040 like military of the power of the military in Pakistan, 0:07:25.080 --> 0:07:29.440 and also like taking the rest of Kashmir. Yeah, and 0:07:29.480 --> 0:07:33.880 so this has caused a really horrific conflict in which 0:07:33.920 --> 0:07:37.360 the people of Kashmir have suffered a bunch of horrible shit. 0:07:38.160 --> 0:07:40.920 In twenty nineteen, that autonomy, you know again that the 0:07:41.200 --> 0:07:43.840 autonomy that was the carrot in order to like join 0:07:43.920 --> 0:07:47.520 in order to exchange for cashmer joining India right and 0:07:47.800 --> 0:07:51.080 supposedly getting this referendum, like the like the carrot was 0:07:51.080 --> 0:07:54.360 supposed to be that they're supposed to have an unbelievable 0:07:54.400 --> 0:07:58.360 amount of internal autonomy. And in twenty nineteen it had 0:07:58.360 --> 0:07:59.880 been being eroded for a long time, but in twenty 0:07:59.920 --> 0:08:02.560 nine India is just like each hit fuck you, it's gone, 0:08:02.600 --> 0:08:07.280 now have fun. And this causes a bunch of protests, 0:08:07.400 --> 0:08:13.160 It causes Milton Group attacks, It causes a genuinely astonishing crackdown. 0:08:13.200 --> 0:08:15.240 I mean, like they they turned off the phones in 0:08:15.280 --> 0:08:18.360 the internet in Kashmir. The Indian government just like did 0:08:18.360 --> 0:08:21.880 this and it became unbelievably difficult to get any information out. 0:08:22.680 --> 0:08:27.360 They arrested unbelievable numbers of people. There are i mean 0:08:27.680 --> 0:08:31.920 just absolutely horrifying accounts of the ship that Indian security 0:08:31.960 --> 0:08:35.080 forces were doing to people. You know what I mean, 0:08:35.240 --> 0:08:37.360 Like this is this is this is a colonial occupation, right. 0:08:37.400 --> 0:08:39.440 The things that happen in the colonial occupation, they fucking 0:08:39.480 --> 0:08:43.040 torture people, they kill people, they like they rape people. 0:08:43.360 --> 0:08:48.040 It's it's really fucked And during this as as more 0:08:48.120 --> 0:08:54.240 sort of like militant attacks rupt like in India, does 0:08:54.280 --> 0:08:56.839 the first version of its well not the first version, 0:08:56.840 --> 0:08:59.560 but it does. It does like it launches a series 0:08:59.559 --> 0:09:04.440 of attacks on southern Pakistan and this is kind of 0:09:05.400 --> 0:09:07.360 you know, there were escalations of it a couple of 0:09:07.440 --> 0:09:11.120 years ago. But you know, the sort of big deal 0:09:11.200 --> 0:09:15.360 this time was insurgents and it's we have a group 0:09:15.400 --> 0:09:18.040 that claimed responsibility for it. It's still I don't know, 0:09:18.040 --> 0:09:20.000 it's still unclear the extent to which packs INNY government 0:09:20.000 --> 0:09:22.840 was actually involved. There's the whole thing with this. But 0:09:23.080 --> 0:09:25.400 a bunch a bunch of sort of insurgents killed like 0:09:25.520 --> 0:09:30.400 twenty five Hindu tourists in a Kashmari tourist town and 0:09:30.440 --> 0:09:37.400 it's really fucking horrifying. This immediately causes this just unhinged 0:09:37.480 --> 0:09:40.480 wave of Indio nationalism, like you do for a sort 0:09:40.520 --> 0:09:44.040 of nationalism in India. We talked last time about all 0:09:44.040 --> 0:09:46.959 of these Indian government officials like literally talking about quote 0:09:46.960 --> 0:09:50.320 it Israel style final solution to Kashmir. So a bunch 0:09:50.360 --> 0:09:53.880 of very very horrific shit is happening. Yeah, and then 0:09:54.080 --> 0:09:56.720 India decides that it's it's going to start launching attacks 0:09:56.760 --> 0:09:59.000 across the border. There's like the immediate small arms fire, 0:09:59.040 --> 0:10:02.840 there's missile strikes, there's drone attacks, and then as this 0:10:02.880 --> 0:10:07.680 sort of escalates, India launches attacks on three Pakistani air 0:10:07.720 --> 0:10:11.120 bases and again like they hit an air base that 0:10:11.200 --> 0:10:13.920 is in the city where Pakistan's Army General headquarters is, 0:10:15.240 --> 0:10:19.160 which is a kind of provocation that has not happened 0:10:19.200 --> 0:10:21.400 since like the last time these two countries were just 0:10:21.400 --> 0:10:25.040 straight up at war. And you know, like that could 0:10:25.040 --> 0:10:28.679 have killed us all. It didn't, but it absolutely could have, 0:10:28.840 --> 0:10:33.040 and it was also just horrifying for it. And it's 0:10:33.040 --> 0:10:35.839 worth pointing this out right. The people who are getting 0:10:35.960 --> 0:10:39.040 killed on both sides of the border here, like Ar 0:10:39.080 --> 0:10:43.720 Keshmiri's right, because like their home has been occupied by 0:10:43.720 --> 0:10:46.960 these two powers. When when India and Pakistan go to war, 0:10:47.000 --> 0:10:50.880 the people who die on both sides are Ar kashmiris right, 0:10:51.000 --> 0:10:53.480 who are being killed by two states who decided, fuck you, 0:10:53.559 --> 0:10:55.240 we get to control your fate. We get to be 0:10:55.320 --> 0:10:58.560 the people who fucking occupy your land and then claim 0:10:58.640 --> 0:11:02.240 to be the people who represent you. And you know, 0:11:02.360 --> 0:11:05.240 the civilian toll of this is fucking horrifying. There's a 0:11:05.280 --> 0:11:08.960 bunch of a bunch of civilians are killed. People spend 0:11:09.040 --> 0:11:12.200 a huge amount of time cowering in these like horrifying 0:11:12.280 --> 0:11:15.280 overcrowded bunkers. There's a good sort of BBC report on this, 0:11:15.720 --> 0:11:18.679 Like there's so many people packed into bunkers that like 0:11:18.720 --> 0:11:21.520 you can't even like walk. Everyone's just like pressed against 0:11:21.520 --> 0:11:24.240 each other. And three days later you come out of 0:11:24.240 --> 0:11:27.280 your bunker and your fucking house is gone. And those 0:11:27.280 --> 0:11:31.319 are the people who survived, right. It's it's just horrifying, 0:11:32.440 --> 0:11:38.120 And eventually there's a ceasefire. Everyone is now saying different 0:11:38.160 --> 0:11:40.560 things about the ceasefire. The Indian government is trying to 0:11:40.559 --> 0:11:43.880 downplay the US's role in the ceasefire. The Pakistani government 0:11:43.920 --> 0:11:45.800 has been talking about how a whole bunch of places 0:11:45.920 --> 0:11:48.920 were involved, including like Iran and Turkey to some extent, 0:11:49.000 --> 0:11:52.200 or Turkey more than Iran. It seems like the US, 0:11:52.240 --> 0:11:56.080 the UK, and Saudi Arabia all played a role in 0:11:56.080 --> 0:11:58.040 sort of mediating it. That that we can sort of 0:11:58.080 --> 0:12:01.280 confirm the US SEMs to have played the largest role, 0:12:01.640 --> 0:12:08.080 which I guess I don't know. Like Marco Rubio was like, 0:12:08.120 --> 0:12:11.360 we should probably not have a war between to nuclear powers, 0:12:11.600 --> 0:12:15.880 which okay, I'm glad that, like he's finally found a thing, 0:12:15.960 --> 0:12:17.920 a level that he won't stoop to, which is we 0:12:17.960 --> 0:12:19.240 all die in nuclear war. 0:12:21.960 --> 0:12:25.200 I mean, like I would rather Maka Rubio was not 0:12:26.120 --> 0:12:28.960 the Secretary of State, but like of the people who 0:12:29.040 --> 0:12:31.400 could be under Trump administration. He's not as bad as 0:12:31.400 --> 0:12:32.320 somebody other folks. 0:12:32.800 --> 0:12:36.920 Yeah, I mean it's like he we are fully in 0:12:37.080 --> 0:12:39.880 Like which of Hitler's generals would you prefer to be 0:12:39.920 --> 0:12:43.640 in charge of this territory? All these people. 0:12:43.720 --> 0:12:45.120 Yeah, we don't need it. We don't need a debate 0:12:45.240 --> 0:12:47.280 raml right now. What we do need to do is 0:12:47.440 --> 0:13:00.160 throw to ads the Irwin Rommel of the podcast industry. 0:13:02.320 --> 0:13:04.360 Okay, so there are a few things about this conflict 0:13:04.400 --> 0:13:07.960 that are very, very bad. One is that India has 0:13:08.240 --> 0:13:11.040 demonstrated the capacity to launch attacks against Pakistan that don't 0:13:11.080 --> 0:13:14.880 involve them mobilizing their ground troops, which takes forever. It 0:13:14.920 --> 0:13:18.400 is hard. That's really fucking bad. It's also bad that 0:13:18.720 --> 0:13:22.079 again they fucking hit like the air base next to 0:13:22.120 --> 0:13:25.880 Pakistan General Army General Headquarters, which means if they try 0:13:25.880 --> 0:13:27.920 to do another attack, they're gonna have to hit a 0:13:27.960 --> 0:13:31.280 bigger target and they apparently it seems like the Indian 0:13:31.320 --> 0:13:33.320 government has sort of concluded that they can do this now. 0:13:33.760 --> 0:13:35.800 It's also very bad that like most of the like 0:13:35.880 --> 0:13:39.160 domestic Indian left supported this, including CPIM to the comediest 0:13:39.160 --> 0:13:41.360 Party of India Marxist, which is like the sort of 0:13:41.400 --> 0:13:45.040 social democratic technically maoist party that is supposed to be 0:13:45.120 --> 0:13:47.760 like the left in India, like back the attacks, and 0:13:47.800 --> 0:13:50.600 they've always had a fucking terrible line on Kashmir. So 0:13:50.880 --> 0:13:53.439 it's also we're mentioning a little bit. There's been a 0:13:53.480 --> 0:13:57.240 lot of reporting about India. You know, Modia isn't making 0:13:57.280 --> 0:13:59.360 a bunch of noise about trying to just straight up 0:13:59.400 --> 0:14:04.559 cut off Pakistan's access to water, which is very scary. Yeah, 0:14:04.960 --> 0:14:08.680 it's worth noting. Kay talks about this in that Jocobin piece. 0:14:09.320 --> 0:14:11.200 Case argument basically is that like they don't actually have 0:14:11.240 --> 0:14:13.920 the infrastructure to do this, which is good because I 0:14:13.920 --> 0:14:15.920 mean that would be a genocide. Like if they just 0:14:16.040 --> 0:14:18.760 knocked out all back Then's access to water for agricultural 0:14:18.760 --> 0:14:21.320 purposes and for drinking purposes, it'd be really bad. But 0:14:21.480 --> 0:14:23.240 here's what I'm going to read this quote. Under the 0:14:23.240 --> 0:14:26.400 Treaty regulations, India is required to share hydrological data that 0:14:26.480 --> 0:14:29.240 is essential for planning to deal with floods and or 0:14:29.320 --> 0:14:32.640 drought dream monsoon seasons. Denying Pakistan access to this data 0:14:32.680 --> 0:14:35.720 would have a damaging impact. Moreover, because of the limited 0:14:35.720 --> 0:14:38.800 storage capacity, India can change the timing of water flow, 0:14:39.200 --> 0:14:42.000 which is crucial for many crops during sewing seasons. So 0:14:42.400 --> 0:14:43.840 there is still a lot of damage they can do. 0:14:44.000 --> 0:14:48.240 They can't straight up do like a genocide, but they 0:14:48.280 --> 0:14:51.240 can do a lot of damage. And while both sides 0:14:51.280 --> 0:14:54.680 have backed off of like direct military conflict, India still 0:14:54.880 --> 0:14:56.560 is committed to every single thing they can do to 0:14:56.640 --> 0:14:59.880 fuck with Pakistan, which affects just like the people Pakistan. 0:15:00.040 --> 0:15:02.320 This has also been politically very good for Modi because 0:15:02.840 --> 0:15:06.280 alternationalism has been bolstering the sort of like Pakistani military 0:15:06.320 --> 0:15:08.920 government because there are alternationalists feed off of this, and 0:15:08.960 --> 0:15:11.600 it's once again really fucking bad for the people of Kashmir, 0:15:11.640 --> 0:15:13.000 who are the ones getting killed in on both sides 0:15:13.000 --> 0:15:18.360 of the border. Yep, war is bad. Free Kashmir hate this. 0:15:18.680 --> 0:15:19.200 Yeah. 0:15:19.240 --> 0:15:23.480 Well, speaking of war being bad, let's talk about what's 0:15:23.560 --> 0:15:27.320 going on in Yemen. So if you remember from the 0:15:27.400 --> 0:15:33.080 last quarter or so of the Biden administration, after Israel launched, 0:15:33.080 --> 0:15:37.880 there were prizal attacks to October seventh on Gaza, the Huthis, 0:15:38.040 --> 0:15:42.600 which is a depending on your stance, either the legitimate 0:15:42.640 --> 0:15:45.680 government of Yemen or a rebel group in Yemen. You know, 0:15:45.760 --> 0:15:48.760 the international community stance is a rebel group, the Houthis 0:15:48.920 --> 0:15:52.320 Stance is different started launching a series of missile attacks, 0:15:52.360 --> 0:15:55.480 both aimed at Israel and aimed at shipping in the 0:15:55.480 --> 0:15:58.680 Gulf of Aden, right in order to disrupt because the 0:15:58.720 --> 0:16:01.400 significant amount of the world's trade goes through there. And 0:16:01.760 --> 0:16:04.600 this took a number of forms. They have ballistic missiles, 0:16:04.640 --> 0:16:07.120 some of them are indigenous, by which I mean made 0:16:07.360 --> 0:16:10.480 by the who the these oftentimes using stocks that were 0:16:10.520 --> 0:16:14.920 captured from the military and government of Yemen previously. You 0:16:14.920 --> 0:16:18.240 know that they supplanted in a lot of areas and 0:16:18.360 --> 0:16:23.080 other times using missiles that were given to them by Iran. Yeah, right, 0:16:23.160 --> 0:16:25.840 so it's a mix of tactics. They have also used 0:16:25.960 --> 0:16:29.400 drones and they have also landed troops in order to 0:16:29.560 --> 0:16:34.160 capture bulk freighters, including one called the Galaxy Leader and 0:16:34.200 --> 0:16:37.720 I think twenty twenty three that was full of cars 0:16:38.160 --> 0:16:41.200 and their claim was that it was a British vessel, 0:16:41.720 --> 0:16:44.680 and obviously the Brits had been helping to arm and 0:16:44.720 --> 0:16:48.880 support Israel. The vessel was actually registered in Lebanon. However, 0:16:49.040 --> 0:16:51.280 whenever we get to discussions about like whose vessel is, 0:16:51.280 --> 0:16:54.120 who's none of that. None of what is registered matters 0:16:54.200 --> 0:16:56.440 vessels are registered all over the place for a variety 0:16:56.440 --> 0:16:56.920 of nothing. 0:16:56.960 --> 0:16:58.200 It's always nonsense. 0:16:58.360 --> 0:17:03.000 That means nothing in Marshall Islands. Yeah, like nothing in 0:17:03.040 --> 0:17:05.720 the entire world. Matters less to the reality of a 0:17:05.760 --> 0:17:08.560 situation than where the vessel is registered. I'm not saying 0:17:08.560 --> 0:17:10.760 that justifies er does it with the houthis that. I'm 0:17:10.800 --> 0:17:15.679 just saying it does not matter where the vessel is registered. Yeah, yeah, 0:17:15.720 --> 0:17:17.919 the ship was owned by a Lebanon based company. But 0:17:18.040 --> 0:17:20.320 also given the nature of capitals, it doesn't all matter 0:17:20.320 --> 0:17:20.840 all that much. 0:17:20.880 --> 0:17:21.080 Now. 0:17:21.200 --> 0:17:24.120 What also doesn't matter is that in January of this year, 0:17:24.480 --> 0:17:27.600 the Hoothi's freed the captain of that ship and they 0:17:27.600 --> 0:17:30.159 made an announcement that they would limit further attacks to 0:17:30.240 --> 0:17:34.600 vessels flagged at as Israeli or owned by Israeli individuals 0:17:34.760 --> 0:17:39.720 or entities. Right now, that also doesn't mean a lot, right, 0:17:39.800 --> 0:17:43.280 because the nature of international trade means that there are 0:17:43.320 --> 0:17:45.280 a lot of you know, you could basically argue, if 0:17:45.280 --> 0:17:48.159 you're the houthis well this this is owned by a 0:17:48.200 --> 0:17:51.880 multinational corporation who owns companies in Israel, or who has 0:17:51.920 --> 0:17:55.840 heavy investments in companies in Israel. Therefore, right as a result, 0:17:56.080 --> 0:17:59.320 you know, the Hoothi's continued doing the hoothy stuff and 0:18:00.640 --> 0:18:03.240 saw them as kind of a convenient target, a convenient 0:18:03.359 --> 0:18:06.520 place to flex's military muscles. And there were some people 0:18:06.520 --> 0:18:11.560 within the United States defense establishment that considered that extremely convenient, too, right, 0:18:12.000 --> 0:18:14.360 And this is largely due to the fact that Biden 0:18:14.560 --> 0:18:17.760 prescribed a very limited campaign against the Huthies. Now this 0:18:17.760 --> 0:18:21.359 does not mean inexpensive or insignificant. We kept at least 0:18:21.400 --> 0:18:25.719 one aircraft carrier carrying out strikes in Yemen for like 0:18:25.760 --> 0:18:27.800 a year or so, which is kind of the first 0:18:27.880 --> 0:18:30.480 combat duty that an aircraft carrier has had in quite 0:18:30.480 --> 0:18:34.080 some time that was really like active taking incoming fire, 0:18:34.440 --> 0:18:37.280 not incoming fire that ever really threatened the carrier itself. 0:18:37.720 --> 0:18:39.160 But that's sort of beside the point. 0:18:39.400 --> 0:18:42.360 And there were people within the US military establishment who 0:18:42.359 --> 0:18:45.440 were consistently frustrated with the Biden administration that they were 0:18:45.480 --> 0:18:48.720 not letting them operate at a high enough tempo, right, 0:18:49.160 --> 0:18:52.600 And kind of the number one guy advocating for this 0:18:52.760 --> 0:18:55.359 side of events was General Michael E. Carilla, who is 0:18:55.359 --> 0:18:58.600 the head of Central Command or syentcom right, and his 0:18:58.680 --> 0:19:01.720 attitude had been wed a much more aggressive, high tempo 0:19:01.800 --> 0:19:04.639 campaign he pitched the Trump administration when they came in. 0:19:04.680 --> 0:19:06.600 I think it's like an eight to ten month long 0:19:06.760 --> 0:19:10.800 campaign where initially they would degrade who their anti air asset. 0:19:10.920 --> 0:19:13.280 So first we go in there and we use our 0:19:13.320 --> 0:19:16.240 air power to establish air what's called air supremacy. 0:19:16.359 --> 0:19:16.600 Right. 0:19:16.800 --> 0:19:21.000 Air superiority means that you have better quality air support, 0:19:21.200 --> 0:19:24.600 but also your shit can get knocked down. Air supremacy 0:19:24.640 --> 0:19:26.880 means you have complete control of the skies. 0:19:27.119 --> 0:19:27.399 Right. 0:19:27.720 --> 0:19:31.360 The US military is fairly used to having air supremacy 0:19:31.640 --> 0:19:34.560 if you look at, like, for example, our combat in 0:19:34.640 --> 0:19:38.440 Iraq and Afghanistan when it came to like height, like 0:19:38.440 --> 0:19:41.480 like fighter aircraft helicopters would get shot down from time 0:19:41.520 --> 0:19:45.080 to time obviously and have accidents. We weren't losing F 0:19:45.119 --> 0:19:48.240 eighteens in Afghanistan, right, like they weren't getting knocked out 0:19:48.240 --> 0:19:50.120 of the fucking sky by the Taliban. We had air 0:19:50.160 --> 0:19:55.080 supremacy in Ukraine. Depending on what part of the battlespace 0:19:55.119 --> 0:19:57.320 you're talking about, either things have been more or less 0:19:57.320 --> 0:20:00.399 at a standstill, or Russia has had air superior but 0:20:00.440 --> 0:20:04.320 not supremacy, right, because Ukraine has very solid modern anti 0:20:04.359 --> 0:20:06.720 aircraft defenses, and it has been able to exact a toll. 0:20:07.480 --> 0:20:10.520 We will talk to a greater extent about what's been 0:20:10.560 --> 0:20:14.199 happening with India and Pakistan. It is exceedingly unclear at 0:20:14.200 --> 0:20:17.320 the moment who got the better of the engagement. Did 0:20:17.359 --> 0:20:21.119 any of those Chinese anti aircraft missiles actually knock out aircraft? 0:20:21.160 --> 0:20:25.560 Did any India lose any aircraft? Did Pakistan down an aircraft? 0:20:25.800 --> 0:20:28.240 We actually like everyone's making different claims right now, and 0:20:28.320 --> 0:20:31.280 I don't have objective evidence right other than that we 0:20:31.280 --> 0:20:34.359 can we know that things that there's at least evidence of, 0:20:34.600 --> 0:20:36.879 at least one case what looks like refkage of a 0:20:36.920 --> 0:20:39.240 rough fall, and in at least one case there's what 0:20:39.359 --> 0:20:42.640 looks like a knocked down Chinese anti aircraft missile. I'm 0:20:42.680 --> 0:20:44.480 spacing on the exact name right now, but again that 0:20:44.520 --> 0:20:48.280 doesn't mean anything about how they actually affair in the battlespace, 0:20:48.359 --> 0:20:51.280 right So anyway, Yeah, this motherfucker he had a syncom. 0:20:51.280 --> 0:20:54.040 Michael Lee Carilla was like, I've got this plan. We 0:20:54.040 --> 0:20:55.720 need a much more force. We're going to knock out 0:20:55.720 --> 0:20:58.480 their anti air defenses and then we're going to basically 0:20:59.119 --> 0:21:01.840 carry out a modif version of what Israel carried out 0:21:02.000 --> 0:21:04.960 against Hamas and has Belah, Right, where we start targeting 0:21:05.000 --> 0:21:08.160 and killing the leadership cadro once we've knocked out their defenses. 0:21:08.720 --> 0:21:11.400 And he estimated that would take about a little under 0:21:11.400 --> 0:21:13.000 a year, right, but the better part of a year. 0:21:13.320 --> 0:21:15.800 And the Trump administration said, you can have your higher 0:21:15.840 --> 0:21:18.120 tempo war, but you've got to. 0:21:18.119 --> 0:21:19.680 Show results in about a month. 0:21:20.119 --> 0:21:23.120 Right, In about a month, the US military carried out 0:21:23.119 --> 0:21:26.000 about eleven hundred strikes. They killed, they say, hundreds of 0:21:26.000 --> 0:21:28.360 hooty fighters, destroyed quite a bit of weapons and equipment. 0:21:29.080 --> 0:21:32.399 Very unclear how many fighters they killed, certainly hundreds of people. 0:21:32.960 --> 0:21:36.080 Were those all hoothy fighters? How many weapons and equipment 0:21:36.119 --> 0:21:39.520 were destroyed? I don't have access to that sort of data, 0:21:39.560 --> 0:21:42.359 and I'm not entirely confident that anyone in the US 0:21:42.440 --> 0:21:45.840 military has a much better idea certainly a little bit 0:21:45.920 --> 0:21:48.560 more data. But also they get that shit wrong all 0:21:48.600 --> 0:21:49.359 the fucking time. 0:21:49.640 --> 0:21:51.720