1 00:00:01,720 --> 00:00:04,960 Speaker 1: All the media. 2 00:00:05,720 --> 00:00:08,800 Speaker 2: Welcome to the War Update and Update about War. I'm 3 00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:13,360 Speaker 2: your host Miya Wong with the is is James and Robert. 4 00:00:13,680 --> 00:00:15,800 Speaker 1: War never changes, et cetera, et cetera. 5 00:00:16,000 --> 00:00:21,079 Speaker 3: Yeah, except for Yeah, I mean all the time changes. 6 00:00:21,760 --> 00:00:22,919 Speaker 2: Yeah, except for all the changes. 7 00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:24,280 Speaker 4: Yeah. 8 00:00:24,400 --> 00:00:26,360 Speaker 1: I think it's a line from the film. 9 00:00:26,560 --> 00:00:26,799 Speaker 4: Yeah. 10 00:00:26,840 --> 00:00:29,319 Speaker 3: I mean the most important part doesn't change, which is 11 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:33,800 Speaker 3: most things in a proper place at right time, right, 12 00:00:34,200 --> 00:00:37,320 Speaker 3: That's that's that's what determines war winning. But the things 13 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:38,600 Speaker 3: that matter are what change. 14 00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:42,239 Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah. Also what doesn't change? Not great fun for 15 00:00:42,320 --> 00:00:44,680 Speaker 1: the most part, and un enjoyable way to spend your time. 16 00:00:44,760 --> 00:00:47,360 Speaker 3: Not enjoyable except for for the chunk of people who 17 00:00:47,360 --> 00:00:48,760 Speaker 3: tend to make most of the calls. 18 00:00:49,360 --> 00:00:53,480 Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, enjoyable a lot. Yeah, enjoyable. You're an old 19 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:55,680 Speaker 1: guy in a big house. Yeah. 20 00:00:55,720 --> 00:01:00,120 Speaker 2: So we're gonna be talking about three wars. Yeah. I 21 00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:02,560 Speaker 2: think we're gonna We're gonna lead off with the India 22 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:05,480 Speaker 2: Pakistan war, and then we're gonna do the other two 23 00:01:05,520 --> 00:01:08,119 Speaker 2: wars in some order you want to do you want 24 00:01:08,120 --> 00:01:09,640 Speaker 2: to announce the other two wars? 25 00:01:10,040 --> 00:01:12,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, we're gonna talk about the end of the of 26 00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:16,760 Speaker 1: the armed conflict between the PKK and the Turkey State. 27 00:01:16,880 --> 00:01:17,920 Speaker 1: Maybe mm hmm. 28 00:01:18,680 --> 00:01:20,959 Speaker 4: Yeah, we'll be talking about Yemen a little bit. 29 00:01:21,600 --> 00:01:25,640 Speaker 2: Uh yeah, man, yeah, let's let's Oh god, let's do this. Okay. 30 00:01:25,680 --> 00:01:29,280 Speaker 2: So good news missed is that. Look, we do have 31 00:01:29,319 --> 00:01:31,240 Speaker 2: good news, which is that we have not all died 32 00:01:31,240 --> 00:01:33,120 Speaker 2: in the nuclear fires. I know there are some of 33 00:01:33,160 --> 00:01:35,280 Speaker 2: you for whom you were very disappointed, but we're all 34 00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:38,559 Speaker 2: still here for better or for worse, I mean for better, 35 00:01:38,880 --> 00:01:42,360 Speaker 2: Like I'm very glad we didn't all dine in nuclear fire. Yeah, 36 00:01:42,400 --> 00:01:45,040 Speaker 2: so let's let's let's talk about the recent war between 37 00:01:45,080 --> 00:01:50,040 Speaker 2: India and Pakistan. Lasted about four days, so all right. Well, 38 00:01:50,560 --> 00:01:53,000 Speaker 2: we talked about this a little bit before. The very 39 00:01:53,120 --> 00:01:56,520 Speaker 2: basic sort of elements of this conflict. We talked about 40 00:01:56,560 --> 00:01:59,440 Speaker 2: partition on the show before. When India sort of gain 41 00:01:59,520 --> 00:02:03,760 Speaker 2: in dependence from the British Empire, it split into Indian Pakistan. 42 00:02:03,960 --> 00:02:08,320 Speaker 2: Millions died, horrific sort of conflict, people killing each other, 43 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:13,680 Speaker 2: like mass migrations across the borders. Very very very unstable 44 00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:15,959 Speaker 2: set of borders get set up that change a bunch 45 00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:21,000 Speaker 2: of times. And one of the aspects of this sort 46 00:02:21,040 --> 00:02:26,080 Speaker 2: of whole thing is that Kashmir was supposed to be 47 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:30,600 Speaker 2: this independent state and then through an extremely convoluted process 48 00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:33,280 Speaker 2: that I am again once again pushing off to another 49 00:02:33,320 --> 00:02:37,679 Speaker 2: episode with like actual good experts on this, because this 50 00:02:37,760 --> 00:02:42,399 Speaker 2: is a very very convoluted thing. But the short version 51 00:02:42,440 --> 00:02:44,080 Speaker 2: of it basically is that this series is sort of 52 00:02:44,120 --> 00:02:49,080 Speaker 2: escalating conflicts end ends basically in a short war and 53 00:02:49,120 --> 00:02:52,760 Speaker 2: then kasher being split into between India and Pakistan, where 54 00:02:53,840 --> 00:02:57,000 Speaker 2: like about a third roughly of Kashmir ends up under 55 00:02:57,040 --> 00:02:59,799 Speaker 2: Pakistani control and then about two thirds ends up under Indian. 56 00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:04,160 Speaker 2: Now there's an agreement signed by sort of Kashmir's ruler 57 00:03:04,160 --> 00:03:07,760 Speaker 2: at the time to let India like annex like two 58 00:03:07,760 --> 00:03:11,600 Speaker 2: thirds of Kashmir or so the actual dividing line basically 59 00:03:11,960 --> 00:03:16,240 Speaker 2: ends up being like where the armies stopped. You know, 60 00:03:16,360 --> 00:03:20,000 Speaker 2: it changes over the years. But the important thing here, 61 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:23,400 Speaker 2: right is that Kashmir is supposed to have had an 62 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:28,760 Speaker 2: independence referendum, Right that was like, yeah, the deal now 63 00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:31,600 Speaker 2: in a move that is like Genny Winey even more 64 00:03:31,639 --> 00:03:34,239 Speaker 2: stunning than the ship that like Indonesia pulled in West 65 00:03:34,240 --> 00:03:38,480 Speaker 2: Papua so ins Papua, right, like Indonesia pulls a like 66 00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:43,120 Speaker 2: fake independence referendum here, they've never even done that, like 67 00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:46,080 Speaker 2: the never never pretended to have the referendum, and they're 68 00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:46,640 Speaker 2: supposed to have. 69 00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:50,720 Speaker 1: It's like a sub assad level attempt at democracy, you know. 70 00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:53,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, Yeah, they're just like nope, each ship like you're you're, 71 00:03:53,960 --> 00:03:57,680 Speaker 2: you're basically a colony now. Now as as part of 72 00:03:57,720 --> 00:04:02,920 Speaker 2: this deal, right, Kashmir got a pretty substantial amount of autonomy. 73 00:04:03,160 --> 00:04:04,720 Speaker 2: I'm gonna read there. There's actually there's a very good 74 00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 2: Jacobin one of the rare good Jacobin articles, which usually 75 00:04:08,720 --> 00:04:11,320 Speaker 2: tend to be the ones written like not by the 76 00:04:11,360 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 2: American Jocobin writers. 77 00:04:12,720 --> 00:04:17,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm freelancer who made fifty US dollars for writing. Yeah, 78 00:04:18,000 --> 00:04:19,320 Speaker 1: and that's their rate to goun up. 79 00:04:19,600 --> 00:04:22,279 Speaker 2: Yeah, this is written by Irish k And I'm gonna 80 00:04:22,320 --> 00:04:25,600 Speaker 2: quote here from this article. Quote central to the instrument 81 00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:28,520 Speaker 2: of a session. It's the document that the ruler of 82 00:04:28,560 --> 00:04:31,040 Speaker 2: Kashmir signed is sort of Likedhan Kashmir ver to India. 83 00:04:32,240 --> 00:04:36,320 Speaker 2: Quote what's the constitutional provision of Article three seventy which 84 00:04:36,320 --> 00:04:40,240 Speaker 2: assured the Kashmiri people autonomy over all matters besides those 85 00:04:40,279 --> 00:04:45,120 Speaker 2: pretending to defense, external affairs and communications. The article was 86 00:04:45,120 --> 00:04:47,960 Speaker 2: supposed to be temporary and provisional, because there was a 87 00:04:48,000 --> 00:04:50,400 Speaker 2: promise of a referendum by which the people of Kashmir 88 00:04:50,440 --> 00:04:53,799 Speaker 2: would decide their own political fate to remain part of India, 89 00:04:53,880 --> 00:04:56,280 Speaker 2: to join up with Pakistan, or become an independent state. 90 00:04:56,800 --> 00:04:59,360 Speaker 2: But as you've already mentioned, this has never happened. I mean, 91 00:04:59,360 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 2: they didn't even do it, sham one. It just literally 92 00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:06,400 Speaker 2: didn't ever happen. And India has just been imposing its 93 00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:08,320 Speaker 2: rule in Kashmir ever since. And I mean it's also 94 00:05:08,360 --> 00:05:10,560 Speaker 2: worth pointing out that Pakistan has also been imposing its 95 00:05:10,600 --> 00:05:14,599 Speaker 2: rule on like it's part of Kashmir. But the Indian 96 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:18,680 Speaker 2: occupation has become increasingly brutal basically since it's starting, it's 97 00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:21,360 Speaker 2: just continued to get worse and worse, and it is 98 00:05:21,560 --> 00:05:23,839 Speaker 2: sort of a full blown military occupation, right There's just 99 00:05:23,839 --> 00:05:25,680 Speaker 2: like a bunch of fucking Indian troops in the street. 100 00:05:26,680 --> 00:05:29,559 Speaker 2: And as it becomes clear that India is like never 101 00:05:29,800 --> 00:05:32,240 Speaker 2: going to let Kashmir be free or just even let 102 00:05:32,240 --> 00:05:37,000 Speaker 2: the Kashmi people decide what they want, Milton struggles and sews. 103 00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:39,560 Speaker 2: And as Kate points out, it's originally spearheaded by the 104 00:05:39,600 --> 00:05:42,680 Speaker 2: secular Jamu Kashmir Liberation Front, and this group has just 105 00:05:42,680 --> 00:05:46,120 Speaker 2: sort of wiped out because it wanted an independent Kashmir. 106 00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:50,359 Speaker 2: And this was convenient to neither the Indian or the 107 00:05:50,360 --> 00:05:54,039 Speaker 2: Pakistani government because Pakistan and Pakistan talks about this a 108 00:05:54,040 --> 00:05:56,560 Speaker 2: lot internatually, Like one of their sort of international political 109 00:05:56,600 --> 00:05:58,640 Speaker 2: things is like, yeah, we want free Kashmir. But it's like, no, 110 00:05:58,760 --> 00:06:01,000 Speaker 2: you don't. You want Kashmir be part of Pakistan. That 111 00:06:01,080 --> 00:06:03,640 Speaker 2: is not the same thing as it being free, like 112 00:06:04,760 --> 00:06:08,280 Speaker 2: very clear about this, yeah and so and so Pakistan's 113 00:06:08,279 --> 00:06:12,640 Speaker 2: engagement towards Kashmir has always been about this, right, It's 114 00:06:12,640 --> 00:06:15,520 Speaker 2: always been about making sure that there wouldn't be any 115 00:06:15,560 --> 00:06:19,160 Speaker 2: kind of sort of independent Kashmir. And so both India 116 00:06:19,160 --> 00:06:24,120 Speaker 2: and Pakistan crush this sort of secular KASHMIRI independence group 117 00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:26,919 Speaker 2: that happen spearheading a lot of this, and over time 118 00:06:26,960 --> 00:06:30,440 Speaker 2: Pakistan is sort of through it, through a complicated series 119 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:33,160 Speaker 2: of things, has sorted a lot of control over a 120 00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:36,480 Speaker 2: lot of these groups or has like intelligence relations with them. 121 00:06:36,880 --> 00:06:42,360 Speaker 2: Is SI kind of notoriously works with militant groups like 122 00:06:42,640 --> 00:06:45,640 Speaker 2: the I s. I is the group in Afghanistan that 123 00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:49,840 Speaker 2: like really full on did the thing that everyone thinks 124 00:06:50,080 --> 00:06:52,800 Speaker 2: that the US and the Saudi sort of did in 125 00:06:53,040 --> 00:06:55,120 Speaker 2: in terms of like funding the worst parts of the Mujahadeen, 126 00:06:55,320 --> 00:06:58,760 Speaker 2: like that was really mostly Pakistani intelligence. Yeah, so like 127 00:06:58,920 --> 00:07:01,160 Speaker 2: they have a lot of relations with the bunch of 128 00:07:01,200 --> 00:07:05,039 Speaker 2: people who absolutely fucking suck, and they've you know, sort 129 00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:07,719 Speaker 2: of used a lot of these a lot of these 130 00:07:07,760 --> 00:07:10,080 Speaker 2: groups as like a way to sort of poke a 131 00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:13,160 Speaker 2: stick in India and also you know, like attempt to 132 00:07:13,280 --> 00:07:16,680 Speaker 2: obtain their sort of like domestic political goals of like 133 00:07:16,760 --> 00:07:19,960 Speaker 2: weakening India for the real sort of internal stability, which 134 00:07:20,000 --> 00:07:22,680 Speaker 2: we'll come back to later, well, the interior's ability of 135 00:07:22,760 --> 00:07:25,040 Speaker 2: like military of the power of the military in Pakistan, 136 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:29,440 Speaker 2: and also like taking the rest of Kashmir. Yeah, and 137 00:07:29,480 --> 00:07:33,880 Speaker 2: so this has caused a really horrific conflict in which 138 00:07:33,920 --> 00:07:37,360 Speaker 2: the people of Kashmir have suffered a bunch of horrible shit. 139 00:07:38,160 --> 00:07:40,920 Speaker 2: In twenty nineteen, that autonomy, you know again that the 140 00:07:41,200 --> 00:07:43,840 Speaker 2: autonomy that was the carrot in order to like join 141 00:07:43,920 --> 00:07:47,520 Speaker 2: in order to exchange for cashmer joining India right and 142 00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:51,080 Speaker 2: supposedly getting this referendum, like the like the carrot was 143 00:07:51,080 --> 00:07:54,360 Speaker 2: supposed to be that they're supposed to have an unbelievable 144 00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 2: amount of internal autonomy. And in twenty nineteen it had 145 00:07:58,360 --> 00:07:59,880 Speaker 2: been being eroded for a long time, but in twenty 146 00:07:59,920 --> 00:08:02,560 Speaker 2: nine India is just like each hit fuck you, it's gone, 147 00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:07,280 Speaker 2: now have fun. And this causes a bunch of protests, 148 00:08:07,400 --> 00:08:13,160 Speaker 2: It causes Milton Group attacks, It causes a genuinely astonishing crackdown. 149 00:08:13,200 --> 00:08:15,240 Speaker 2: I mean, like they they turned off the phones in 150 00:08:15,280 --> 00:08:18,360 Speaker 2: the internet in Kashmir. The Indian government just like did 151 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:21,880 Speaker 2: this and it became unbelievably difficult to get any information out. 152 00:08:22,680 --> 00:08:27,360 Speaker 2: They arrested unbelievable numbers of people. There are i mean 153 00:08:27,680 --> 00:08:31,920 Speaker 2: just absolutely horrifying accounts of the ship that Indian security 154 00:08:31,960 --> 00:08:35,080 Speaker 2: forces were doing to people. You know what I mean, 155 00:08:35,240 --> 00:08:37,360 Speaker 2: Like this is this is this is a colonial occupation, right. 156 00:08:37,400 --> 00:08:39,440 Speaker 2: The things that happen in the colonial occupation, they fucking 157 00:08:39,480 --> 00:08:43,040 Speaker 2: torture people, they kill people, they like they rape people. 158 00:08:43,360 --> 00:08:48,040 Speaker 2: It's it's really fucked And during this as as more 159 00:08:48,120 --> 00:08:54,240 Speaker 2: sort of like militant attacks rupt like in India, does 160 00:08:54,280 --> 00:08:56,839 Speaker 2: the first version of its well not the first version, 161 00:08:56,840 --> 00:08:59,560 Speaker 2: but it does. It does like it launches a series 162 00:08:59,559 --> 00:09:04,440 Speaker 2: of attacks on southern Pakistan and this is kind of 163 00:09:05,400 --> 00:09:07,360 Speaker 2: you know, there were escalations of it a couple of 164 00:09:07,440 --> 00:09:11,120 Speaker 2: years ago. But you know, the sort of big deal 165 00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:15,360 Speaker 2: this time was insurgents and it's we have a group 166 00:09:15,400 --> 00:09:18,040 Speaker 2: that claimed responsibility for it. It's still I don't know, 167 00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:20,000 Speaker 2: it's still unclear the extent to which packs INNY government 168 00:09:20,000 --> 00:09:22,840 Speaker 2: was actually involved. There's the whole thing with this. But 169 00:09:23,080 --> 00:09:25,400 Speaker 2: a bunch a bunch of sort of insurgents killed like 170 00:09:25,520 --> 00:09:30,400 Speaker 2: twenty five Hindu tourists in a Kashmari tourist town and 171 00:09:30,440 --> 00:09:37,400 Speaker 2: it's really fucking horrifying. This immediately causes this just unhinged 172 00:09:37,480 --> 00:09:40,480 Speaker 2: wave of Indio nationalism, like you do for a sort 173 00:09:40,520 --> 00:09:44,040 Speaker 2: of nationalism in India. We talked last time about all 174 00:09:44,040 --> 00:09:46,959 Speaker 2: of these Indian government officials like literally talking about quote 175 00:09:46,960 --> 00:09:50,320 Speaker 2: it Israel style final solution to Kashmir. So a bunch 176 00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:53,880 Speaker 2: of very very horrific shit is happening. Yeah, and then 177 00:09:54,080 --> 00:09:56,720 Speaker 2: India decides that it's it's going to start launching attacks 178 00:09:56,760 --> 00:09:59,000 Speaker 2: across the border. There's like the immediate small arms fire, 179 00:09:59,040 --> 00:10:02,840 Speaker 2: there's missile strikes, there's drone attacks, and then as this 180 00:10:02,880 --> 00:10:07,680 Speaker 2: sort of escalates, India launches attacks on three Pakistani air 181 00:10:07,720 --> 00:10:11,120 Speaker 2: bases and again like they hit an air base that 182 00:10:11,200 --> 00:10:13,920 Speaker 2: is in the city where Pakistan's Army General headquarters is, 183 00:10:15,240 --> 00:10:19,160 Speaker 2: which is a kind of provocation that has not happened 184 00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:21,400 Speaker 2: since like the last time these two countries were just 185 00:10:21,400 --> 00:10:25,040 Speaker 2: straight up at war. And you know, like that could 186 00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:28,679 Speaker 2: have killed us all. It didn't, but it absolutely could have, 187 00:10:28,840 --> 00:10:33,040 Speaker 2: and it was also just horrifying for it. And it's 188 00:10:33,040 --> 00:10:35,839 Speaker 2: worth pointing this out right. The people who are getting 189 00:10:35,960 --> 00:10:39,040 Speaker 2: killed on both sides of the border here, like Ar 190 00:10:39,080 --> 00:10:43,720 Speaker 2: Keshmiri's right, because like their home has been occupied by 191 00:10:43,720 --> 00:10:46,960 Speaker 2: these two powers. When when India and Pakistan go to war, 192 00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:50,880 Speaker 2: the people who die on both sides are Ar kashmiris right, 193 00:10:51,000 --> 00:10:53,480 Speaker 2: who are being killed by two states who decided, fuck you, 194 00:10:53,559 --> 00:10:55,240 Speaker 2: we get to control your fate. We get to be 195 00:10:55,320 --> 00:10:58,560 Speaker 2: the people who fucking occupy your land and then claim 196 00:10:58,640 --> 00:11:02,240 Speaker 2: to be the people who represent you. And you know, 197 00:11:02,360 --> 00:11:05,240 Speaker 2: the civilian toll of this is fucking horrifying. There's a 198 00:11:05,280 --> 00:11:08,960 Speaker 2: bunch of a bunch of civilians are killed. People spend 199 00:11:09,040 --> 00:11:12,200 Speaker 2: a huge amount of time cowering in these like horrifying 200 00:11:12,280 --> 00:11:15,280 Speaker 2: overcrowded bunkers. There's a good sort of BBC report on this, 201 00:11:15,720 --> 00:11:18,679 Speaker 2: Like there's so many people packed into bunkers that like 202 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:21,520 Speaker 2: you can't even like walk. Everyone's just like pressed against 203 00:11:21,520 --> 00:11:24,240 Speaker 2: each other. And three days later you come out of 204 00:11:24,240 --> 00:11:27,280 Speaker 2: your bunker and your fucking house is gone. And those 205 00:11:27,280 --> 00:11:31,319 Speaker 2: are the people who survived, right. It's it's just horrifying, 206 00:11:32,440 --> 00:11:38,120 Speaker 2: And eventually there's a ceasefire. Everyone is now saying different 207 00:11:38,160 --> 00:11:40,560 Speaker 2: things about the ceasefire. The Indian government is trying to 208 00:11:40,559 --> 00:11:43,880 Speaker 2: downplay the US's role in the ceasefire. The Pakistani government 209 00:11:43,920 --> 00:11:45,800 Speaker 2: has been talking about how a whole bunch of places 210 00:11:45,920 --> 00:11:48,920 Speaker 2: were involved, including like Iran and Turkey to some extent, 211 00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:52,200 Speaker 2: or Turkey more than Iran. It seems like the US, 212 00:11:52,240 --> 00:11:56,080 Speaker 2: the UK, and Saudi Arabia all played a role in 213 00:11:56,080 --> 00:11:58,040 Speaker 2: sort of mediating it. That that we can sort of 214 00:11:58,080 --> 00:12:01,280 Speaker 2: confirm the US SEMs to have played the largest role, 215 00:12:01,640 --> 00:12:08,080 Speaker 2: which I guess I don't know. Like Marco Rubio was like, 216 00:12:08,120 --> 00:12:11,360 Speaker 2: we should probably not have a war between to nuclear powers, 217 00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:15,880 Speaker 2: which okay, I'm glad that, like he's finally found a thing, 218 00:12:15,960 --> 00:12:17,920 Speaker 2: a level that he won't stoop to, which is we 219 00:12:17,960 --> 00:12:19,240 Speaker 2: all die in nuclear war. 220 00:12:21,960 --> 00:12:25,200 Speaker 1: I mean, like I would rather Maka Rubio was not 221 00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:28,960 Speaker 1: the Secretary of State, but like of the people who 222 00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:31,400 Speaker 1: could be under Trump administration. He's not as bad as 223 00:12:31,400 --> 00:12:32,320 Speaker 1: somebody other folks. 224 00:12:32,800 --> 00:12:36,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's like he we are fully in 225 00:12:37,080 --> 00:12:39,880 Speaker 2: Like which of Hitler's generals would you prefer to be 226 00:12:39,920 --> 00:12:43,640 Speaker 2: in charge of this territory? All these people. 227 00:12:43,720 --> 00:12:45,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, we don't need it. We don't need a debate 228 00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:47,280 Speaker 3: raml right now. What we do need to do is 229 00:12:47,440 --> 00:13:00,160 Speaker 3: throw to ads the Irwin Rommel of the podcast industry. 230 00:13:02,320 --> 00:13:04,360 Speaker 2: Okay, so there are a few things about this conflict 231 00:13:04,400 --> 00:13:07,960 Speaker 2: that are very, very bad. One is that India has 232 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:11,040 Speaker 2: demonstrated the capacity to launch attacks against Pakistan that don't 233 00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:14,880 Speaker 2: involve them mobilizing their ground troops, which takes forever. It 234 00:13:14,920 --> 00:13:18,400 Speaker 2: is hard. That's really fucking bad. It's also bad that 235 00:13:18,720 --> 00:13:22,079 Speaker 2: again they fucking hit like the air base next to 236 00:13:22,120 --> 00:13:25,880 Speaker 2: Pakistan General Army General Headquarters, which means if they try 237 00:13:25,880 --> 00:13:27,920 Speaker 2: to do another attack, they're gonna have to hit a 238 00:13:27,960 --> 00:13:31,280 Speaker 2: bigger target and they apparently it seems like the Indian 239 00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:33,320 Speaker 2: government has sort of concluded that they can do this now. 240 00:13:33,760 --> 00:13:35,800 Speaker 2: It's also very bad that like most of the like 241 00:13:35,880 --> 00:13:39,160 Speaker 2: domestic Indian left supported this, including CPIM to the comediest 242 00:13:39,160 --> 00:13:41,360 Speaker 2: Party of India Marxist, which is like the sort of 243 00:13:41,400 --> 00:13:45,040 Speaker 2: social democratic technically maoist party that is supposed to be 244 00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:47,760 Speaker 2: like the left in India, like back the attacks, and 245 00:13:47,800 --> 00:13:50,600 Speaker 2: they've always had a fucking terrible line on Kashmir. So 246 00:13:50,880 --> 00:13:53,439 Speaker 2: it's also we're mentioning a little bit. There's been a 247 00:13:53,480 --> 00:13:57,240 Speaker 2: lot of reporting about India. You know, Modia isn't making 248 00:13:57,280 --> 00:13:59,360 Speaker 2: a bunch of noise about trying to just straight up 249 00:13:59,400 --> 00:14:04,559 Speaker 2: cut off Pakistan's access to water, which is very scary. Yeah, 250 00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:08,680 Speaker 2: it's worth noting. Kay talks about this in that Jocobin piece. 251 00:14:09,320 --> 00:14:11,200 Speaker 2: Case argument basically is that like they don't actually have 252 00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:13,920 Speaker 2: the infrastructure to do this, which is good because I 253 00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:15,920 Speaker 2: mean that would be a genocide. Like if they just 254 00:14:16,040 --> 00:14:18,760 Speaker 2: knocked out all back Then's access to water for agricultural 255 00:14:18,760 --> 00:14:21,320 Speaker 2: purposes and for drinking purposes, it'd be really bad. But 256 00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:23,240 Speaker 2: here's what I'm going to read this quote. Under the 257 00:14:23,240 --> 00:14:26,400 Speaker 2: Treaty regulations, India is required to share hydrological data that 258 00:14:26,480 --> 00:14:29,240 Speaker 2: is essential for planning to deal with floods and or 259 00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:32,640 Speaker 2: drought dream monsoon seasons. Denying Pakistan access to this data 260 00:14:32,680 --> 00:14:35,720 Speaker 2: would have a damaging impact. Moreover, because of the limited 261 00:14:35,720 --> 00:14:38,800 Speaker 2: storage capacity, India can change the timing of water flow, 262 00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:42,000 Speaker 2: which is crucial for many crops during sewing seasons. So 263 00:14:42,400 --> 00:14:43,840 Speaker 2: there is still a lot of damage they can do. 264 00:14:44,000 --> 00:14:48,240 Speaker 2: They can't straight up do like a genocide, but they 265 00:14:48,280 --> 00:14:51,240 Speaker 2: can do a lot of damage. And while both sides 266 00:14:51,280 --> 00:14:54,680 Speaker 2: have backed off of like direct military conflict, India still 267 00:14:54,880 --> 00:14:56,560 Speaker 2: is committed to every single thing they can do to 268 00:14:56,640 --> 00:14:59,880 Speaker 2: fuck with Pakistan, which affects just like the people Pakistan. 269 00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:02,320 Speaker 2: This has also been politically very good for Modi because 270 00:15:02,840 --> 00:15:06,280 Speaker 2: alternationalism has been bolstering the sort of like Pakistani military 271 00:15:06,320 --> 00:15:08,920 Speaker 2: government because there are alternationalists feed off of this, and 272 00:15:08,960 --> 00:15:11,600 Speaker 2: it's once again really fucking bad for the people of Kashmir, 273 00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:13,000 Speaker 2: who are the ones getting killed in on both sides 274 00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:18,360 Speaker 2: of the border. Yep, war is bad. Free Kashmir hate this. 275 00:15:18,680 --> 00:15:19,200 Speaker 4: Yeah. 276 00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:23,480 Speaker 3: Well, speaking of war being bad, let's talk about what's 277 00:15:23,560 --> 00:15:27,320 Speaker 3: going on in Yemen. So if you remember from the 278 00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:33,080 Speaker 3: last quarter or so of the Biden administration, after Israel launched, 279 00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:37,880 Speaker 3: there were prizal attacks to October seventh on Gaza, the Huthis, 280 00:15:38,040 --> 00:15:42,600 Speaker 3: which is a depending on your stance, either the legitimate 281 00:15:42,640 --> 00:15:45,680 Speaker 3: government of Yemen or a rebel group in Yemen. You know, 282 00:15:45,760 --> 00:15:48,760 Speaker 3: the international community stance is a rebel group, the Houthis 283 00:15:48,920 --> 00:15:52,320 Speaker 3: Stance is different started launching a series of missile attacks, 284 00:15:52,360 --> 00:15:55,480 Speaker 3: both aimed at Israel and aimed at shipping in the 285 00:15:55,480 --> 00:15:58,680 Speaker 3: Gulf of Aden, right in order to disrupt because the 286 00:15:58,720 --> 00:16:01,400 Speaker 3: significant amount of the world's trade goes through there. And 287 00:16:01,760 --> 00:16:04,600 Speaker 3: this took a number of forms. They have ballistic missiles, 288 00:16:04,640 --> 00:16:07,120 Speaker 3: some of them are indigenous, by which I mean made 289 00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:10,480 Speaker 3: by the who the these oftentimes using stocks that were 290 00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:14,920 Speaker 3: captured from the military and government of Yemen previously. You 291 00:16:14,920 --> 00:16:18,240 Speaker 3: know that they supplanted in a lot of areas and 292 00:16:18,360 --> 00:16:23,080 Speaker 3: other times using missiles that were given to them by Iran. Yeah, right, 293 00:16:23,160 --> 00:16:25,840 Speaker 3: so it's a mix of tactics. They have also used 294 00:16:25,960 --> 00:16:29,400 Speaker 3: drones and they have also landed troops in order to 295 00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:34,160 Speaker 3: capture bulk freighters, including one called the Galaxy Leader and 296 00:16:34,200 --> 00:16:37,720 Speaker 3: I think twenty twenty three that was full of cars 297 00:16:38,160 --> 00:16:41,200 Speaker 3: and their claim was that it was a British vessel, 298 00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:44,680 Speaker 3: and obviously the Brits had been helping to arm and 299 00:16:44,720 --> 00:16:48,880 Speaker 3: support Israel. The vessel was actually registered in Lebanon. However, 300 00:16:49,040 --> 00:16:51,280 Speaker 3: whenever we get to discussions about like whose vessel is, 301 00:16:51,280 --> 00:16:54,120 Speaker 3: who's none of that. None of what is registered matters 302 00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:56,440 Speaker 3: vessels are registered all over the place for a variety 303 00:16:56,440 --> 00:16:56,920 Speaker 3: of nothing. 304 00:16:56,960 --> 00:16:58,200 Speaker 4: It's always nonsense. 305 00:16:58,360 --> 00:17:03,000 Speaker 3: That means nothing in Marshall Islands. Yeah, like nothing in 306 00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:05,720 Speaker 3: the entire world. Matters less to the reality of a 307 00:17:05,760 --> 00:17:08,560 Speaker 3: situation than where the vessel is registered. I'm not saying 308 00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:10,760 Speaker 3: that justifies er does it with the houthis that. I'm 309 00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:15,679 Speaker 3: just saying it does not matter where the vessel is registered. Yeah, yeah, 310 00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:17,919 Speaker 3: the ship was owned by a Lebanon based company. But 311 00:17:18,040 --> 00:17:20,320 Speaker 3: also given the nature of capitals, it doesn't all matter 312 00:17:20,320 --> 00:17:20,840 Speaker 3: all that much. 313 00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:21,080 Speaker 4: Now. 314 00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:24,120 Speaker 3: What also doesn't matter is that in January of this year, 315 00:17:24,480 --> 00:17:27,600 Speaker 3: the Hoothi's freed the captain of that ship and they 316 00:17:27,600 --> 00:17:30,159 Speaker 3: made an announcement that they would limit further attacks to 317 00:17:30,240 --> 00:17:34,600 Speaker 3: vessels flagged at as Israeli or owned by Israeli individuals 318 00:17:34,760 --> 00:17:39,720 Speaker 3: or entities. Right now, that also doesn't mean a lot, right, 319 00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:43,280 Speaker 3: because the nature of international trade means that there are 320 00:17:43,320 --> 00:17:45,280 Speaker 3: a lot of you know, you could basically argue, if 321 00:17:45,280 --> 00:17:48,159 Speaker 3: you're the houthis well this this is owned by a 322 00:17:48,200 --> 00:17:51,880 Speaker 3: multinational corporation who owns companies in Israel, or who has 323 00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:55,840 Speaker 3: heavy investments in companies in Israel. Therefore, right as a result, 324 00:17:56,080 --> 00:17:59,320 Speaker 3: you know, the Hoothi's continued doing the hoothy stuff and 325 00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:03,240 Speaker 3: saw them as kind of a convenient target, a convenient 326 00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:06,520 Speaker 3: place to flex's military muscles. And there were some people 327 00:18:06,520 --> 00:18:11,560 Speaker 3: within the United States defense establishment that considered that extremely convenient, too, right, 328 00:18:12,000 --> 00:18:14,360 Speaker 3: And this is largely due to the fact that Biden 329 00:18:14,560 --> 00:18:17,760 Speaker 3: prescribed a very limited campaign against the Huthies. Now this 330 00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:21,359 Speaker 3: does not mean inexpensive or insignificant. We kept at least 331 00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:25,719 Speaker 3: one aircraft carrier carrying out strikes in Yemen for like 332 00:18:25,760 --> 00:18:27,800 Speaker 3: a year or so, which is kind of the first 333 00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:30,480 Speaker 3: combat duty that an aircraft carrier has had in quite 334 00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:34,080 Speaker 3: some time that was really like active taking incoming fire, 335 00:18:34,440 --> 00:18:37,280 Speaker 3: not incoming fire that ever really threatened the carrier itself. 336 00:18:37,720 --> 00:18:39,160 Speaker 4: But that's sort of beside the point. 337 00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:42,360 Speaker 3: And there were people within the US military establishment who 338 00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:45,440 Speaker 3: were consistently frustrated with the Biden administration that they were 339 00:18:45,480 --> 00:18:48,720 Speaker 3: not letting them operate at a high enough tempo, right, 340 00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:52,600 Speaker 3: And kind of the number one guy advocating for this 341 00:18:52,760 --> 00:18:55,359 Speaker 3: side of events was General Michael E. Carilla, who is 342 00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:58,600 Speaker 3: the head of Central Command or syentcom right, and his 343 00:18:58,680 --> 00:19:01,720 Speaker 3: attitude had been wed a much more aggressive, high tempo 344 00:19:01,800 --> 00:19:04,639 Speaker 3: campaign he pitched the Trump administration when they came in. 345 00:19:04,680 --> 00:19:06,600 Speaker 3: I think it's like an eight to ten month long 346 00:19:06,760 --> 00:19:10,800 Speaker 3: campaign where initially they would degrade who their anti air asset. 347 00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:13,280 Speaker 3: So first we go in there and we use our 348 00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:16,240 Speaker 3: air power to establish air what's called air supremacy. 349 00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:16,600 Speaker 4: Right. 350 00:19:16,800 --> 00:19:21,000 Speaker 3: Air superiority means that you have better quality air support, 351 00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:24,600 Speaker 3: but also your shit can get knocked down. Air supremacy 352 00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:26,880 Speaker 3: means you have complete control of the skies. 353 00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:27,399 Speaker 4: Right. 354 00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:31,360 Speaker 3: The US military is fairly used to having air supremacy 355 00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:34,560 Speaker 3: if you look at, like, for example, our combat in 356 00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:38,440 Speaker 3: Iraq and Afghanistan when it came to like height, like 357 00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:41,480 Speaker 3: like fighter aircraft helicopters would get shot down from time 358 00:19:41,520 --> 00:19:45,080 Speaker 3: to time obviously and have accidents. We weren't losing F 359 00:19:45,119 --> 00:19:48,240 Speaker 3: eighteens in Afghanistan, right, like they weren't getting knocked out 360 00:19:48,240 --> 00:19:50,120 Speaker 3: of the fucking sky by the Taliban. We had air 361 00:19:50,160 --> 00:19:55,080 Speaker 3: supremacy in Ukraine. Depending on what part of the battlespace 362 00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:57,320 Speaker 3: you're talking about, either things have been more or less 363 00:19:57,320 --> 00:20:00,399 Speaker 3: at a standstill, or Russia has had air superior but 364 00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:04,320 Speaker 3: not supremacy, right, because Ukraine has very solid modern anti 365 00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:06,720 Speaker 3: aircraft defenses, and it has been able to exact a toll. 366 00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:10,520 Speaker 3: We will talk to a greater extent about what's been 367 00:20:10,560 --> 00:20:14,199 Speaker 3: happening with India and Pakistan. It is exceedingly unclear at 368 00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:17,320 Speaker 3: the moment who got the better of the engagement. Did 369 00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:21,119 Speaker 3: any of those Chinese anti aircraft missiles actually knock out aircraft? 370 00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:25,560 Speaker 3: Did any India lose any aircraft? Did Pakistan down an aircraft? 371 00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:28,240 Speaker 3: We actually like everyone's making different claims right now, and 372 00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:31,280 Speaker 3: I don't have objective evidence right other than that we 373 00:20:31,280 --> 00:20:34,359 Speaker 3: can we know that things that there's at least evidence of, 374 00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:36,879 Speaker 3: at least one case what looks like refkage of a 375 00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:39,240 Speaker 3: rough fall, and in at least one case there's what 376 00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:42,640 Speaker 3: looks like a knocked down Chinese anti aircraft missile. I'm 377 00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:44,480 Speaker 3: spacing on the exact name right now, but again that 378 00:20:44,520 --> 00:20:48,280 Speaker 3: doesn't mean anything about how they actually affair in the battlespace, 379 00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:51,280 Speaker 3: right So anyway, Yeah, this motherfucker he had a syncom. 380 00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:54,040 Speaker 3: Michael Lee Carilla was like, I've got this plan. We 381 00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:55,720 Speaker 3: need a much more force. We're going to knock out 382 00:20:55,720 --> 00:20:58,480 Speaker 3: their anti air defenses and then we're going to basically 383 00:20:59,119 --> 00:21:01,840 Speaker 3: carry out a modif version of what Israel carried out 384 00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:04,960 Speaker 3: against Hamas and has Belah, Right, where we start targeting 385 00:21:05,000 --> 00:21:08,160 Speaker 3: and killing the leadership cadro once we've knocked out their defenses. 386 00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:11,400 Speaker 3: And he estimated that would take about a little under 387 00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:13,000 Speaker 3: a year, right, but the better part of a year. 388 00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:15,800 Speaker 3: And the Trump administration said, you can have your higher 389 00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:18,120 Speaker 3: tempo war, but you've got to. 390 00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:19,680 Speaker 4: Show results in about a month. 391 00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:23,120 Speaker 3: Right, In about a month, the US military carried out 392 00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:26,000 Speaker 3: about eleven hundred strikes. They killed, they say, hundreds of 393 00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:28,360 Speaker 3: hooty fighters, destroyed quite a bit of weapons and equipment. 394 00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:32,399 Speaker 3: Very unclear how many fighters they killed, certainly hundreds of people. 395 00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:36,080 Speaker 3: Were those all hoothy fighters? How many weapons and equipment 396 00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:39,520 Speaker 3: were destroyed? I don't have access to that sort of data, 397 00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:42,359 Speaker 3: and I'm not entirely confident that anyone in the US 398 00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:45,840 Speaker 3: military has a much better idea certainly a little bit 399 00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:48,560 Speaker 3: more data. But also they get that shit wrong all 400 00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:49,359 Speaker 3: the fucking time. 401 00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:51,720 Speaker 2: Yeah. It's also like it's worth noting right when they're 402 00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:55,280 Speaker 2: talking about like casualty numbers, the Huthis are not a 403 00:21:56,160 --> 00:22:00,640 Speaker 2: small rebel group like now they control the capital of Yemen, right, 404 00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:04,440 Speaker 2: Like this is like the government, right, Yeah, they have. 405 00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:07,399 Speaker 3: Not a peer state in terms of the US and 406 00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:10,399 Speaker 3: that they do not have the manufacturing base and capacity, 407 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:15,600 Speaker 3: but they are equivalent to a small state actor, right yeah, yeah, and. 408 00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:19,280 Speaker 2: So and so what you're bombing them, right like you're 409 00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:21,920 Speaker 2: you're just you're blowing smoking creators and apartment buildings. 410 00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:25,800 Speaker 3: And the Hoothies are so experienced with getting bombed. They've 411 00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:28,439 Speaker 3: been bombed by a lot of people before. None of 412 00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:31,879 Speaker 3: this is new to them, right, yeah. So in the 413 00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:35,239 Speaker 3: first thirty days, while they you know, the US has 414 00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:37,480 Speaker 3: made a lot, has made a lot of claims about 415 00:22:37,480 --> 00:22:39,760 Speaker 3: how many people they killed and the level of degradation 416 00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:43,280 Speaker 3: of Hoothy capacity, the Houthis have done some damage to 417 00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:46,680 Speaker 3: US capacity. They have shot down seven at this point 418 00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:48,959 Speaker 3: at least seven m Q nine Reaper drones, which are 419 00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:52,359 Speaker 3: thirty million dollars each. And in addition, now four f 420 00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:57,560 Speaker 3: eighteen jets have been lost not probably not yeah, probably 421 00:22:57,760 --> 00:22:59,600 Speaker 3: just to fuck ups that are a result of the 422 00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:00,879 Speaker 3: tenth of activity. 423 00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:01,120 Speaker 4: Right. 424 00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:04,240 Speaker 3: These all tend to be craft that are landing and 425 00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:08,240 Speaker 3: don't get caught by the catapult system that they've got 426 00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:11,399 Speaker 3: on these aircraft carriers or otherwise wind up in the 427 00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:15,399 Speaker 3: Red Sea. Right, there is some suspicion and debate is 428 00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:20,160 Speaker 3: to like, is there any sort of like internal treason 429 00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:22,960 Speaker 3: going on here? Is somebody on the aircraft carrier making 430 00:23:23,040 --> 00:23:26,439 Speaker 3: these fuck ups happen. This is being investigated, I believe, 431 00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:30,200 Speaker 3: although there's no confirmation about like what exactly has gone down. 432 00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:34,440 Speaker 3: It's weird to lose this many FA eighteen super hornets 433 00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:36,200 Speaker 3: and a very short period of time. 434 00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:39,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, I will say my understanding of it, also, is 435 00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:40,720 Speaker 2: it the everything that's going on here is that this 436 00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:43,080 Speaker 2: aircraft carrier has been out past the point it should 437 00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:45,880 Speaker 2: have been refitted. Yes, like so extraordinarily. 438 00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:48,879 Speaker 3: And it's also not weird that people fuck up when 439 00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:51,280 Speaker 3: they are carrying on operations at a tempo they never 440 00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:54,159 Speaker 3: have before. Right, And there's a very good chance that 441 00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:56,320 Speaker 3: it's nothing more than that the more you fly, the 442 00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:57,800 Speaker 3: more accidents are going to happen. 443 00:23:58,240 --> 00:23:58,680 Speaker 4: Right, Yeah. 444 00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:02,199 Speaker 2: Period. Also say, I want to say, imagine you were 445 00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:03,160 Speaker 2: like the deck office. 446 00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:09,320 Speaker 3: Oh man, that poor motherfucker, that motherfucker's getting fucked, Like yeah, 447 00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:11,640 Speaker 3: I think the first one goes over, right, and then 448 00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:14,680 Speaker 3: the second one, uh huh goes yeah, And now it's 449 00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:18,080 Speaker 3: happening right now, you've probably been you're out of the 450 00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:20,680 Speaker 3: push job, and that first guy is kind of lucky 451 00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:23,159 Speaker 3: because when the next two fall off, at least maybe that's. 452 00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:24,399 Speaker 4: Less pressure on you. 453 00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:29,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, Like imagine like you're the deck officer of the fourth. 454 00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:40,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, Jesus right, God, that's gotta suck. So in 455 00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:43,560 Speaker 3: about thirty days, the US military had burned more than 456 00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:47,399 Speaker 3: a billion dollars on this operation, right at which point 457 00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:49,919 Speaker 3: Trump and people around him were like, oh fuck, we 458 00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:52,760 Speaker 3: can't keep this ship up. We can't maintain this tempo 459 00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:55,840 Speaker 3: of operations. There were warnings given for within the Defense 460 00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:59,040 Speaker 3: Department that we have used so many of our most 461 00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:01,800 Speaker 3: advanced munitions that if China makes a move on Taiwan, 462 00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:05,640 Speaker 3: we're not sure we have the reserves necessary right these munitions. 463 00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:08,399 Speaker 3: When we talk a lot about the capacity of US firepower, 464 00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:10,800 Speaker 3: people talk about shit like in twenty eighteen, how we 465 00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:15,439 Speaker 3: like a There was this Alqaeda guy who had been 466 00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:18,600 Speaker 3: responsible for the attack on the US coal twenty something. 467 00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:22,080 Speaker 4: Years ago, Yeah, a long gas time ago, who used. 468 00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:23,800 Speaker 3: A cell phone he shouldn't have used briefly and then 469 00:25:23,840 --> 00:25:25,760 Speaker 3: turned it off, and we were able to get visual 470 00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:27,840 Speaker 3: confirmation of where he was from the cell phone signal 471 00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:30,320 Speaker 3: and knock his ass out with a drone right, and 472 00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:38,320 Speaker 3: we do have incredible capacity potentially to make unbelievably precise strikes. However, 473 00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:43,959 Speaker 3: that capacity is reliant both upon a functional network of 474 00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:48,479 Speaker 3: human intelligence, a functional network of operators of aircraft and 475 00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:51,800 Speaker 3: drones who are not completely burnt out by the tempo 476 00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:55,960 Speaker 3: of operations, and access to incredibly advanced munitions, which we 477 00:25:56,040 --> 00:25:59,280 Speaker 3: do not have an inexhaustible capacity and are reliant upon 478 00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:04,200 Speaker 3: an international supply chain to continue to manufacture right, and 479 00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:06,760 Speaker 3: all of that has been endangered by the tempo of 480 00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:11,000 Speaker 3: this campaign. And ultimately there's a great New York Times 481 00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:14,640 Speaker 3: report on this that's just absolutely damning to the military 482 00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:17,359 Speaker 3: that came out as called why Trump suddenly declared victory 483 00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:20,320 Speaker 3: over the Hoothy militia, that declared that after all of this, 484 00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:24,800 Speaker 3: the best we can say is perhaps a modest degradation 485 00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:28,560 Speaker 3: of Hoothy capacities that they can easily recover from given 486 00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:31,120 Speaker 3: enough time, which they're going to get. Because Trump both 487 00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:33,560 Speaker 3: declared victory and stated that the Hoothies had yet again 488 00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:37,199 Speaker 3: agreed to stop striking shipping in the Red Sea, and 489 00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:38,879 Speaker 3: he was like, this is a win. We made a 490 00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:41,560 Speaker 3: deal with him, big deal maker. Donald Trump made a deal. Now, 491 00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:43,520 Speaker 3: if you look at the Houthi said, all they said 492 00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:46,680 Speaker 3: is we're going to stop striking Israeli shipping, which, if 493 00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:50,600 Speaker 3: you'll recall, is what they had said in January. 494 00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:54,760 Speaker 4: So did we win? 495 00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:55,480 Speaker 1: Now? 496 00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:59,480 Speaker 3: Did the Hoothies win? Not yet, but they're you know, 497 00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:03,240 Speaker 3: they didn't lose. And again, if you understand your insurgent warfare, 498 00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:06,680 Speaker 3: you win by just not losing for long enough. 499 00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:07,200 Speaker 4: Right. 500 00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:10,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, and it's also worth it's worth mentioning too 501 00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:13,200 Speaker 2: when you're talking about the global supply chain part of this. Right, 502 00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:15,399 Speaker 2: on the one hand, like the US has done an 503 00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:17,360 Speaker 2: extraordinary amount to try to make sure that as much 504 00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:19,040 Speaker 2: as the supply chain as they can is in the US. 505 00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:21,080 Speaker 2: On the other hand, it still requires a bunch of 506 00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:23,200 Speaker 2: chef mother places, including a bunch of rare earth metals 507 00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:26,000 Speaker 2: that the US gets from China. Now you may be 508 00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:29,520 Speaker 2: noting we are currently fighting a trade war with China. 509 00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:32,399 Speaker 2: A bunch of the our like strategic planning is about 510 00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:36,760 Speaker 2: stopping a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. So and we've just 511 00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:40,480 Speaker 2: expended a shit ton of our stack pilot yeahs, that 512 00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:43,399 Speaker 2: we can only replace by using shit we get from China. 513 00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:47,800 Speaker 2: So absolute just gedious brain shit that that that's happening 514 00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:50,280 Speaker 2: here right now at the highest levels of the highest 515 00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:51,280 Speaker 2: levels of the regime. 516 00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:55,000 Speaker 1: Meanma has a lot of rare earth metals, but we 517 00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:57,800 Speaker 1: have China is currently lot closer to securing those than 518 00:27:57,800 --> 00:28:00,680 Speaker 1: the United States is. Yeah, it's not great. 519 00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:04,520 Speaker 3: Well that's all I got. That's the hoodies. Let's have 520 00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:06,040 Speaker 3: another ad break real quick here. 521 00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:06,879 Speaker 1: Yeah, let's do that. 522 00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:07,320 Speaker 4: Let's do that. 523 00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:20,400 Speaker 1: Let's have an ad break. Lovely, what a nice advertising 524 00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:24,159 Speaker 1: break we are. Now that I know many of you 525 00:28:24,240 --> 00:28:27,840 Speaker 1: have been asking me about what is happening in Kurdistan, 526 00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:31,320 Speaker 1: so I'm going to try my best to very briefly 527 00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:34,840 Speaker 1: explain that in the last segment of this show. So, 528 00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:40,720 Speaker 1: the PKK right, the PKK being the branch of the 529 00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:45,120 Speaker 1: Kurdish Freedom Movement that has operated in Turkey as Turkey 530 00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:49,640 Speaker 1: or Northern Kurdistan, and mostly since the mid twenty teens 531 00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:53,440 Speaker 1: has been based in a Rack or Southern Kurdistan. Right, 532 00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:56,440 Speaker 1: it convened its twelfth Congress in the second week of 533 00:28:56,480 --> 00:29:00,960 Speaker 1: May and it decided to disband it self, lay down 534 00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:04,360 Speaker 1: its arms, and I think the phrasing it used was 535 00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:08,960 Speaker 1: to cease armed activities under the PKK name, which is 536 00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:16,360 Speaker 1: a way of saying things more broadly, It did genuinely 537 00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:18,880 Speaker 1: seem to indicate a commitment to like this sort of 538 00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:21,640 Speaker 1: ballot not the bullet approach. And I'm going to quote 539 00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:26,520 Speaker 1: kind of extensively here from the statement that the PKK released, 540 00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:31,440 Speaker 1: and then from other statements from people Genmilbick, the leader, 541 00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:34,720 Speaker 1: one of the co chairs of the KCK. The KK, 542 00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:38,800 Speaker 1: if you're not familiar, it's a Curdistan Communities Union that 543 00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:43,080 Speaker 1: is a group that allows the different areas of the 544 00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:46,200 Speaker 1: Kurdish Freedom Movement, all of which are inspired by the 545 00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:49,560 Speaker 1: political thought of abd Aujilan, to sort of come together 546 00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:57,360 Speaker 1: and discuss their paradigm, their goals, their methodologies. I guess, 547 00:29:58,040 --> 00:30:01,240 Speaker 1: so I want to read from the PKK statement to 548 00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:05,040 Speaker 1: begin with quote the process initiated by Leader Abdullah or 549 00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:08,560 Speaker 1: Janan statement of February twenty seventh, and further shaped by 550 00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:12,520 Speaker 1: his extensive work and multi dimensional perspectives, culminated in the 551 00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:16,240 Speaker 1: successful convening of our twelfth Party Congress between May fifth 552 00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:20,640 Speaker 1: and May the seventh, despite ongoing clashes, aerial and ground attacks, 553 00:30:20,720 --> 00:30:24,840 Speaker 1: continued siege of our regions, and the KDP embargo our 554 00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:29,400 Speaker 1: Congress was held securely under challenging conditions due to security concerns. 555 00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:32,320 Speaker 1: It was conducted simultaneously in two different locations, with a 556 00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:35,240 Speaker 1: participation of two hundred and thirty two delegates in total. 557 00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:40,040 Speaker 1: The PKK twelfth Congress discussed leadership, martyrs, veterans, the organizational 558 00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:44,520 Speaker 1: structure of the PKK and armed struggle and democratic society building, 559 00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:47,360 Speaker 1: culminating in the historic decisions marking the beginning of a 560 00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:51,280 Speaker 1: new era for a freedom movement. It's a very long statement, 561 00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:55,240 Speaker 1: as tends to be the style of statements from the 562 00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:58,240 Speaker 1: Curdish freedom movement. It talks a lot about Abdullah Jelen, 563 00:30:58,920 --> 00:31:01,040 Speaker 1: as tends to be the style of statement from the 564 00:31:01,080 --> 00:31:03,600 Speaker 1: Kurdish freedom movement. I've I have linked to itinly shown 565 00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:05,120 Speaker 1: as if you'd like to read all of it, and 566 00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:06,720 Speaker 1: you know, I'd encourage you too, you're interested in this 567 00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:09,520 Speaker 1: sort of thing. They talk a lot about the democratic 568 00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:12,200 Speaker 1: nation concept and the idea that occurs in Turks of 569 00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:15,640 Speaker 1: coxisted in Turkey for a long time. I thought this 570 00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:17,760 Speaker 1: part was of interest, and going to quote again here 571 00:31:17,800 --> 00:31:20,840 Speaker 1: the decision of our Congress to dissolve the PKK and 572 00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:23,760 Speaker 1: end the method of armed struggle offers a strong basis 573 00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:27,560 Speaker 1: for a lasting piece and a democratic solution. Implementing these 574 00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:32,160 Speaker 1: decisions requires that leader Appo Appo, it's the evocative form 575 00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:34,600 Speaker 1: of the Kurdish word for paternal uncle, but in this 576 00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:37,560 Speaker 1: in this instance, it is referring to abdulah Jaalan, right, 577 00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:41,400 Speaker 1: that's his nickname. Leader Appo, lead and guide the process 578 00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:45,920 Speaker 1: that has right to democratic politics be recognized and that solid, 579 00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:50,239 Speaker 1: comprehensive legal guarantees be established. At this stage, it is 580 00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:53,800 Speaker 1: essential that the Grand National Assembly of Turkey plays its 581 00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:57,440 Speaker 1: role with historical responsibility. So a couple of things that 582 00:31:57,480 --> 00:32:00,600 Speaker 1: are of note there. One is that the talking about 583 00:32:00,640 --> 00:32:05,760 Speaker 1: this transition towards democracy or a brotherhood of nations, the 584 00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:09,120 Speaker 1: talk about somewhere else right, brotherhood of people's it's occurring 585 00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:11,600 Speaker 1: under the leadership and direction of Abdulla Jelan. If you 586 00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:14,160 Speaker 1: are not familiar with Abdullah Ouscherlan, you can listen to 587 00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:17,040 Speaker 1: Robert's theories. So the women's wards are the great job 588 00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:19,080 Speaker 1: of explaining a lot of the stuff that we won't 589 00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:21,920 Speaker 1: have time to get into today. Very briefly, Appo has 590 00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:26,680 Speaker 1: been in Imrali and various other Turkish prisons since nineteen 591 00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:30,920 Speaker 1: ninety nine. For long periods of that time, no one 592 00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:34,440 Speaker 1: was able to see him. He was held completely in communicado. 593 00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:37,480 Speaker 1: At times there were hundreds of troops guiding only him 594 00:32:37,520 --> 00:32:41,120 Speaker 1: on this Turkish prison island. That is no longer a case. Right. 595 00:32:41,160 --> 00:32:43,560 Speaker 1: He made this statement on the twenty seventh of February, 596 00:32:43,880 --> 00:32:49,480 Speaker 1: and since then the Kurdish Freedom Movement has had access 597 00:32:49,560 --> 00:32:53,400 Speaker 1: to Ouscherlan. Right. He actually made another statement on the 598 00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:57,600 Speaker 1: eighteenth of May where he said, I quote, a new 599 00:32:57,640 --> 00:33:00,320 Speaker 1: contract is needed based on the law of brotherhood. What 600 00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:03,440 Speaker 1: we are doing represents a major paradigm shift. The nature 601 00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:06,560 Speaker 1: of the Turkish Kurdish relationship is fundamentally different what has 602 00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:10,480 Speaker 1: been broken in the bond of brotherhood. It seems like 603 00:33:11,040 --> 00:33:13,480 Speaker 1: through the DEM Party right, which is a left leaning 604 00:33:14,040 --> 00:33:17,280 Speaker 1: party in Turkey, which has supported the Kurdish cause and 605 00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:20,640 Speaker 1: for a long time has served as the interlocutor between 606 00:33:21,400 --> 00:33:25,160 Speaker 1: Turkey and the Kurdish Freedom movement. Through the DEM Party, 607 00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:30,800 Speaker 1: they have access to Ouserland and they're able relatively frequently. 608 00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:33,400 Speaker 1: It seems like these DEM Party officials to go to 609 00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:37,400 Speaker 1: him rally and talk to him, and so they're talking 610 00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:43,680 Speaker 1: about his leadership continuing through this democratic Transition right for 611 00:33:43,760 --> 00:33:47,560 Speaker 1: the Curdish Freedom Movement. Jimil Bikes Jimil Bick again is 612 00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:50,880 Speaker 1: the co chair of the casey K and institutions. Within 613 00:33:50,920 --> 00:33:53,840 Speaker 1: the Kurdish Freedom Movement. There's a co chair system, right, 614 00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:57,000 Speaker 1: which means so that a man and a woman share 615 00:33:57,040 --> 00:34:01,920 Speaker 1: the chairmanship of an institution, such that patriarchal structures aren't 616 00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:05,680 Speaker 1: replicated in the movement. That's the goal of the co 617 00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:08,080 Speaker 1: chair system. He has a two part interview in A 618 00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:10,279 Speaker 1: and F which I've linked again in the notes. He 619 00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:13,920 Speaker 1: talked about how like the first role of the PKK, 620 00:34:14,160 --> 00:34:16,360 Speaker 1: of the movement, even before it was called the PKK, 621 00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:22,440 Speaker 1: was to quote unquote reveal the Kurdish quote unquote Kurdish question. Right, 622 00:34:22,480 --> 00:34:24,560 Speaker 1: That's how they refer to it. Other times I'll talk 623 00:34:24,560 --> 00:34:26,880 Speaker 1: about her Kurdish people were on their knees and like 624 00:34:27,040 --> 00:34:30,239 Speaker 1: under the leadership of Augiland they stood up. They talk 625 00:34:30,280 --> 00:34:33,320 Speaker 1: about also how Mount Ararat, Turkey has a plaque apparently 626 00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:36,520 Speaker 1: where it says like here is buried the imaginary Kurdish nation, 627 00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:40,560 Speaker 1: and like the Kurdish nation is certainly not buried anymore, right, 628 00:34:40,600 --> 00:34:43,800 Speaker 1: Like it it's very active. Kurds are very politically empowered 629 00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:46,680 Speaker 1: in two of the four countries where Kurds live, right, 630 00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:49,040 Speaker 1: Like in Turkey they are to a lesser extent, but 631 00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:51,360 Speaker 1: they're still present, right, No one could deny their presence. 632 00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:55,359 Speaker 1: In Iran, it's still, I guess more difficult the time 633 00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:59,760 Speaker 1: for the Kurdish freedom movement, Biack said. Within our initial paradigm, 634 00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:03,759 Speaker 1: our first manifesto, the Kurdish identity, the Kurdish people and 635 00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:07,640 Speaker 1: Kurdish society were formed. A society in love with freedom 636 00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:10,919 Speaker 1: was formed. People emerged that would fight for freedom under 637 00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:14,040 Speaker 1: any circumstances. On this basis, we are now developing a 638 00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:18,160 Speaker 1: new paradigm, a second manifesto. This paradigm, this manifesto aimed 639 00:35:18,160 --> 00:35:20,640 Speaker 1: to resolve not only the Kurdish question, but also the 640 00:35:20,640 --> 00:35:23,000 Speaker 1: issues of the peoples of the Middle East and humanity 641 00:35:23,000 --> 00:35:27,200 Speaker 1: as a whole. Rabert Apple, Rayber Smith's leader, Raybert Apple 642 00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:30,040 Speaker 1: is no longer leading only the Kurdish people. He's leading 643 00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:42,000 Speaker 1: all peoples of humanity. Yeah it's yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, 644 00:35:42,040 --> 00:35:46,160 Speaker 1: it's yeah. This is the sort of rehtoric we can 645 00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:48,000 Speaker 1: expect from the get the k c K right, Like 646 00:35:48,760 --> 00:35:52,520 Speaker 1: they're very dedicated to Julan as a leader. Yes, yes, 647 00:35:52,920 --> 00:35:55,840 Speaker 1: and you know, Robert and I have both been trus Java. 648 00:35:55,840 --> 00:35:57,960 Speaker 3: I've heard a lot of no life without our leader's 649 00:35:57,960 --> 00:35:59,799 Speaker 3: speeches and seeing a lot of a lot of those 650 00:35:59,800 --> 00:36:00,600 Speaker 3: pert as well. 651 00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:02,640 Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, yeah, Like you can't really go into a 652 00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:05,759 Speaker 1: space you'll see other Like it's not just Ocherlan, right, 653 00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:07,799 Speaker 1: You're going to see a wind I can, and you're 654 00:36:07,800 --> 00:36:10,520 Speaker 1: going to see it's not like just a guy with 655 00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:12,560 Speaker 1: a mustache. You're going to see women idolized in the 656 00:36:12,600 --> 00:36:16,960 Speaker 1: movement too. But auscher Land to the greatest extent is 657 00:36:17,320 --> 00:36:20,120 Speaker 1: like their dear leader figure. You can see his face 658 00:36:20,160 --> 00:36:24,280 Speaker 1: all over Rashava and they're very dedicated to Ouscherlen's leadership. 659 00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:29,239 Speaker 1: And like this change in structure does not change that, 660 00:36:29,440 --> 00:36:31,359 Speaker 1: or this change it approach has not changed that. In fact, 661 00:36:31,640 --> 00:36:36,320 Speaker 1: it underlines that, right, Like from the letter that Ouserlean 662 00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:38,080 Speaker 1: wrote and he wrote letters to different parts of the 663 00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:41,239 Speaker 1: Kurdish Freedom movement came this change, right, So it's still 664 00:36:41,800 --> 00:36:46,960 Speaker 1: at the instruction of Ochelin, albeit with the consent of 665 00:36:47,120 --> 00:36:51,720 Speaker 1: these delegates who went to this PKK congress right and voted. 666 00:36:52,320 --> 00:36:55,080 Speaker 1: I've reached out to the k c K to ask 667 00:36:55,160 --> 00:36:59,080 Speaker 1: for comment on like exactly what this means in terms 668 00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:01,279 Speaker 1: of like to the casey k as I said, are 669 00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:04,160 Speaker 1: in the mountains of southern Kurdistan now, and they have 670 00:37:04,360 --> 00:37:07,520 Speaker 1: fought Turkey there for years. Right, We've covered that on 671 00:37:07,600 --> 00:37:10,719 Speaker 1: this podcast. Northern Iraq, Southern Kerdistan, however you wish to 672 00:37:11,560 --> 00:37:14,520 Speaker 1: call it like Turkey has been bombing They were bombing 673 00:37:14,560 --> 00:37:16,239 Speaker 1: it last time I was there. I'm sure they were 674 00:37:16,239 --> 00:37:18,680 Speaker 1: bombing it last time Robert was there. They've been bombing 675 00:37:18,719 --> 00:37:23,680 Speaker 1: it ever since. And the villages that have really suffered 676 00:37:23,800 --> 00:37:26,719 Speaker 1: as a result. Right, people have lost their children, they've 677 00:37:26,760 --> 00:37:29,920 Speaker 1: lost their lands, they've often had their crops burned right 678 00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:33,839 Speaker 1: by these bombs. So I'm interested to know that will 679 00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:38,120 Speaker 1: the idea of the Kurdish Freedom Movement leaving the mountains 680 00:37:38,160 --> 00:37:41,120 Speaker 1: there is I mean, it would be a hell of 681 00:37:41,160 --> 00:37:43,560 Speaker 1: a site they've been in. They've been in those mountains 682 00:37:43,600 --> 00:37:46,160 Speaker 1: for a long time. But I don't know what this 683 00:37:46,360 --> 00:37:50,840 Speaker 1: means for the Kurdish Freedom Movement in southern Kurdistan. But 684 00:37:51,239 --> 00:37:53,839 Speaker 1: I've asked. I don't know if this means that they 685 00:37:53,920 --> 00:37:57,840 Speaker 1: will attempt like a straight up electoral strategy, right, or 686 00:37:58,440 --> 00:38:02,880 Speaker 1: when Ogerland's asking for a new contract, right, like a 687 00:38:02,960 --> 00:38:06,399 Speaker 1: new social contract that's how in Raja. But they literally 688 00:38:06,440 --> 00:38:08,480 Speaker 1: have a social contract, right. The social contract is generally 689 00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:12,320 Speaker 1: like a theoretical construct in most like neoliberal democracies, the 690 00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:15,080 Speaker 1: idea that you and the state enter into an agreement 691 00:38:15,160 --> 00:38:18,120 Speaker 1: whereby you give up some freedom and you lose some 692 00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:20,840 Speaker 1: danger and the state give you some safety and it 693 00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:23,919 Speaker 1: takes some of your freedom. In Raja, but the social 694 00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:26,120 Speaker 1: contract is a real thing, right, Like, it's a thing 695 00:38:26,239 --> 00:38:31,160 Speaker 1: that is formed in consultation with society. So when when 696 00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:34,719 Speaker 1: we see APPO asking a bandon new contract, does that 697 00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:37,200 Speaker 1: mean that they will engage like on the basis of 698 00:38:37,280 --> 00:38:40,719 Speaker 1: a new Turkish constitution. I don't know. I don't think 699 00:38:40,719 --> 00:38:42,400 Speaker 1: any of us have answers to these questions, and I 700 00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:45,760 Speaker 1: imagine that they don't either. Write like they have decided 701 00:38:46,160 --> 00:38:50,160 Speaker 1: to pursue this strategy of peace. They've decided that through 702 00:38:50,400 --> 00:38:53,480 Speaker 1: their armed conflict, they were able to prove that they exist. 703 00:38:53,560 --> 00:38:56,600 Speaker 1: And that's a phrase that specifically people have said to 704 00:38:56,680 --> 00:38:58,480 Speaker 1: me in the Kurdish Freedom movement, like we had to 705 00:38:58,560 --> 00:39:01,960 Speaker 1: pick up arms to pre that we exist, and now 706 00:39:02,040 --> 00:39:07,759 Speaker 1: that there's no denying their existence, they can use different methods, right, 707 00:39:07,920 --> 00:39:10,880 Speaker 1: Like they're put down their weapons and talk and established 708 00:39:10,880 --> 00:39:13,799 Speaker 1: with Turkey how to coexist, having established that they exist 709 00:39:13,920 --> 00:39:16,719 Speaker 1: through the armed struggle. So for them, this is like 710 00:39:16,880 --> 00:39:19,760 Speaker 1: they're celebrating it, right. They'll draw the analogy very often 711 00:39:19,880 --> 00:39:23,680 Speaker 1: to like Shinfein in Ireland, that's one that you're here 712 00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:26,960 Speaker 1: pretty often, and that this is their Good Friday. Now. 713 00:39:27,080 --> 00:39:30,760 Speaker 1: In the Good Friday Agreement, Britainer released people from prison. 714 00:39:31,719 --> 00:39:36,320 Speaker 1: Number of very highly cherished, very highly respected members of 715 00:39:36,360 --> 00:39:38,879 Speaker 1: the Curdish Freedom movement are still in prison. Of course, 716 00:39:38,960 --> 00:39:43,400 Speaker 1: Oderlan being the most sort of widely loved and respected 717 00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:45,960 Speaker 1: member of the Kurdish Freedom movement. I don't think we're 718 00:39:45,960 --> 00:39:48,919 Speaker 1: seeing Osderlan come out of prison. I don't think there's 719 00:39:48,920 --> 00:39:51,080 Speaker 1: a world in which Turkey would let that happen. But 720 00:39:51,200 --> 00:39:54,800 Speaker 1: maybe we will see some other people released. Maybe we 721 00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:58,280 Speaker 1: will see those people. I don't enter into electoral politics. 722 00:39:58,360 --> 00:40:01,280 Speaker 1: Some of them have been in the struggle for fifty 723 00:40:01,360 --> 00:40:04,320 Speaker 1: plus years, right, like fifty years living in the mountains 724 00:40:04,880 --> 00:40:08,239 Speaker 1: and constantly being worried about being bombed. So it'll be 725 00:40:08,320 --> 00:40:10,839 Speaker 1: fascinating to see how this this has been a long 726 00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:13,680 Speaker 1: and bloody conflict. It has been going for longer than 727 00:40:13,680 --> 00:40:16,879 Speaker 1: any of us have been alive. If the friends are happy, 728 00:40:16,920 --> 00:40:20,440 Speaker 1: then I'm happy for them, right, And if peace is 729 00:40:20,480 --> 00:40:23,280 Speaker 1: what they want and they can get away to continue, 730 00:40:24,120 --> 00:40:26,520 Speaker 1: like General Bick says, like the people in love with freedom, 731 00:40:26,600 --> 00:40:29,000 Speaker 1: Like if they can keep their freedom and they can 732 00:40:29,080 --> 00:40:32,160 Speaker 1: do it without war, then I'm happy for them, because, 733 00:40:32,360 --> 00:40:35,319 Speaker 1: like I've talked to a lot of Kurdish parents who 734 00:40:35,320 --> 00:40:36,280 Speaker 1: have buried their children. 735 00:40:36,760 --> 00:40:39,360 Speaker 3: God Almighty been to too many of the graveyards and 736 00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:40,160 Speaker 3: northern Syria. 737 00:40:40,360 --> 00:40:44,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, there's little white graveyards with little children's faces. 738 00:40:44,200 --> 00:40:47,560 Speaker 1: Like that will stay with me forever whatever stops that, 739 00:40:48,160 --> 00:40:51,560 Speaker 1: you know, Yeah, Like if one of the things that 740 00:40:51,680 --> 00:40:53,560 Speaker 1: kind of struck me when I was in Rajaba last 741 00:40:53,600 --> 00:40:56,279 Speaker 1: time is that like death just falls from the night 742 00:40:56,320 --> 00:40:59,640 Speaker 1: sky sometimes, yeah, and maybe maybe it's your baby, maybe 743 00:40:59,680 --> 00:41:03,399 Speaker 1: it's you, maybe into your grandma, And it's a pretty 744 00:41:03,440 --> 00:41:07,040 Speaker 1: horrible way to live. And going through that for your 745 00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:11,840 Speaker 1: freedom is something very brave. And they have endured some 746 00:41:12,080 --> 00:41:14,560 Speaker 1: of the worst conflict on the planet in the last 747 00:41:14,640 --> 00:41:17,200 Speaker 1: few decades, right, They've fought some of the worst fucking 748 00:41:17,280 --> 00:41:20,080 Speaker 1: people on the planet on one and if there is 749 00:41:20,160 --> 00:41:23,200 Speaker 1: a way that the people of kurdisf Stan can enjoy peace, 750 00:41:23,320 --> 00:41:25,759 Speaker 1: I want that for them because they've been at war 751 00:41:25,840 --> 00:41:28,960 Speaker 1: for a very long time. Yep, hi, everyone, it's James, 752 00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:31,200 Speaker 1: and which is adding this pick up to the episode. 753 00:41:31,800 --> 00:41:35,160 Speaker 1: I was able to get some questions answered on behalf 754 00:41:35,160 --> 00:41:37,200 Speaker 1: of the Kurdish Friedim movement, and I would just like 755 00:41:37,320 --> 00:41:40,319 Speaker 1: to share those answers with you. So I asked if 756 00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:43,000 Speaker 1: Aojulan was able to address the Congress. I'd previously been 757 00:41:43,040 --> 00:41:46,480 Speaker 1: told he was. This is a response. Throughout the more 758 00:41:46,520 --> 00:41:50,000 Speaker 1: than twenty six years that Kurdish People's Leader Abdula Ogelan 759 00:41:50,120 --> 00:41:52,400 Speaker 1: has been held hostage in the prison island of him Rally, 760 00:41:52,600 --> 00:41:54,719 Speaker 1: he has always found waves to convey his messages and 761 00:41:54,760 --> 00:41:57,560 Speaker 1: perspectives to the Congress of the PKK that has taken place. 762 00:41:58,120 --> 00:42:00,880 Speaker 1: So it was again regarding the twelfth Conggress of the PKK, 763 00:42:01,080 --> 00:42:03,080 Speaker 1: which convened from May the fifth to May the seventh 764 00:42:03,200 --> 00:42:05,520 Speaker 1: in the Free Mountains of Kurdistan. He was able to 765 00:42:05,560 --> 00:42:08,360 Speaker 1: forward his ideas and analysis via the various delegations that 766 00:42:08,440 --> 00:42:11,520 Speaker 1: have visited him throughout the last few months. I asked 767 00:42:11,560 --> 00:42:14,160 Speaker 1: about Ojulan's call for a new social contract and they 768 00:42:14,239 --> 00:42:17,279 Speaker 1: told me Curtish People's Leader ab Dela Ojuln's calls and 769 00:42:17,360 --> 00:42:20,400 Speaker 1: the historic initiatives that he has taken do not imply 770 00:42:20,520 --> 00:42:22,840 Speaker 1: that the Turkish State has adopted the same attitude or 771 00:42:22,880 --> 00:42:26,000 Speaker 1: that the state has changed its approach. Kurdish People's leader 772 00:42:26,000 --> 00:42:28,160 Speaker 1: abd Lor Aujulin is not simply hoping for a change 773 00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:30,960 Speaker 1: of mentality in the state, but it's moving forward developing 774 00:42:31,000 --> 00:42:33,200 Speaker 1: his project and thereby pulling the state along with him. 775 00:42:33,840 --> 00:42:36,840 Speaker 1: What he is currently primarily concerned with is a redefining 776 00:42:36,880 --> 00:42:39,759 Speaker 1: and reconstruction of the historical alliance of the Kurdish and 777 00:42:39,880 --> 00:42:42,920 Speaker 1: Turkish people, which has been derailed during the past century. 778 00:42:43,360 --> 00:42:46,320 Speaker 1: A long term democratic solution to the Kurdish question necessitates 779 00:42:46,360 --> 00:42:47,840 Speaker 1: a recognition of the role of the Kurds in the 780 00:42:47,960 --> 00:42:51,680 Speaker 1: establishment of development of the republic. Relations between the peoples 781 00:42:51,760 --> 00:42:54,320 Speaker 1: must be brought back to the historical routes, so division 782 00:42:54,360 --> 00:42:57,600 Speaker 1: cannot be realized Unilatterally, it lays in the nature of 783 00:42:57,680 --> 00:42:59,640 Speaker 1: the way the struggle at the Kurdish People's lead ab 784 00:42:59,640 --> 00:43:02,399 Speaker 1: de l Or and the PKK that when they want 785 00:43:02,440 --> 00:43:04,880 Speaker 1: to achieve a solution to a specific issue, they initially 786 00:43:04,960 --> 00:43:08,040 Speaker 1: create through struggle the necessary conditions and contexts for it. 787 00:43:08,640 --> 00:43:11,440 Speaker 1: What Abdul ojuland does is to set the context and 788 00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:14,640 Speaker 1: to encourage all related circles in Turkey to take upon 789 00:43:14,840 --> 00:43:18,200 Speaker 1: their responsibility for our lasting peace. And then I wanted 790 00:43:18,239 --> 00:43:20,440 Speaker 1: to ask about the people who were incarcerated and like 791 00:43:20,560 --> 00:43:22,840 Speaker 1: the steps that they needed from the Turkish state in 792 00:43:23,000 --> 00:43:24,680 Speaker 1: order for this peace process to continue. 793 00:43:25,160 --> 00:43:26,279 Speaker 4: And this is what they said. 794 00:43:26,719 --> 00:43:30,360 Speaker 1: A historic initiative was taken by Curdish People's Leader Abdula 795 00:43:30,360 --> 00:43:32,920 Speaker 1: Aujilan and the PKK. First of all, there was the 796 00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:36,360 Speaker 1: publication of the quote call for peace and democratic society 797 00:43:36,440 --> 00:43:39,759 Speaker 1: and quote on February twenty sevenths. Then there was a 798 00:43:39,840 --> 00:43:42,759 Speaker 1: declaration of the unilateral ceasefire on March first, and now 799 00:43:43,120 --> 00:43:46,040 Speaker 1: there was the twelve PKK Congress May fifth to seventh 800 00:43:46,440 --> 00:43:49,040 Speaker 1: was a decision to dissolve the PKK. All of those 801 00:43:49,080 --> 00:43:51,560 Speaker 1: steps were unilateral steps that were not the result of 802 00:43:51,640 --> 00:43:55,120 Speaker 1: negotiations with the state. So far, no official negotiation to 803 00:43:55,200 --> 00:43:58,080 Speaker 1: take a place and oritenal verbal agreements have been reached. 804 00:43:58,440 --> 00:44:01,440 Speaker 1: The steps taken were only a sign of goodwill and 805 00:44:01,600 --> 00:44:04,640 Speaker 1: expression of seriousness about peace. Now it is upon the 806 00:44:04,680 --> 00:44:07,120 Speaker 1: Turkish state to answer to this initiative and take the 807 00:44:07,200 --> 00:44:10,359 Speaker 1: first practical legal steps. So far, all we have seen 808 00:44:10,480 --> 00:44:13,280 Speaker 1: is empty rhetoric. For the process to actually unfold, Kurdish 809 00:44:13,320 --> 00:44:16,719 Speaker 1: People's leader Abdullah Oujelan must first of all, regain his 810 00:44:16,800 --> 00:44:19,680 Speaker 1: physical freedom and the conditions for him to work freely, 811 00:44:19,960 --> 00:44:23,080 Speaker 1: healthily and securely must be guaranteed so that he can 812 00:44:23,120 --> 00:44:26,879 Speaker 1: fulfill his role as a chief negotiator of the Kurdish people. Also, 813 00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:29,400 Speaker 1: the constitutional reforms that grant the basic rights for the 814 00:44:29,480 --> 00:44:32,200 Speaker 1: Kurds and recognize them as one of the primary constituents 815 00:44:32,280 --> 00:44:33,600 Speaker 1: that a republic must take place. 816 00:44:33,760 --> 00:44:33,920 Speaker 3: Now. 817 00:44:34,600 --> 00:44:37,560 Speaker 1: These are the first necessary steps. From there a peace 818 00:44:37,640 --> 00:44:38,720 Speaker 1: process can unfold. 819 00:44:40,120 --> 00:44:41,280 Speaker 4: If you're wondering about Rajava. 820 00:44:41,400 --> 00:44:45,320 Speaker 1: Just to finish up, Muslumabdi made a statement Aslumbdi, leader 821 00:44:45,520 --> 00:44:49,000 Speaker 1: of the Syrian Democratic Forces Right, sometimes called General muslium 822 00:44:49,120 --> 00:44:53,080 Speaker 1: Hova Muslum depends who, depends what side of things you're on, 823 00:44:53,200 --> 00:44:56,560 Speaker 1: I guess. Muslum Abdi made a statement congratulating the PKKA, 824 00:44:56,840 --> 00:44:59,240 Speaker 1: saying he hoped to all parties supported the peace process. 825 00:44:59,520 --> 00:45:03,360 Speaker 1: The sea it is still in clashes with remnants of 826 00:45:03,400 --> 00:45:08,560 Speaker 1: the so called Islamic State and increasingly with Sunnis within 827 00:45:09,000 --> 00:45:12,839 Speaker 1: the Syrian Revolution who are growing disheartened with what they 828 00:45:13,000 --> 00:45:17,040 Speaker 1: see as al Shara's moderate turn right, the Damascus government 829 00:45:17,160 --> 00:45:22,160 Speaker 1: being to live for some of these sunny groups, and 830 00:45:22,440 --> 00:45:25,840 Speaker 1: so isis the Islamic State whatever you want to call it. 831 00:45:26,000 --> 00:45:28,919 Speaker 1: Dash is using that as a chance to recruit people, 832 00:45:29,440 --> 00:45:32,719 Speaker 1: and that is why we are seeing ongoing fighting. I 833 00:45:33,120 --> 00:45:35,279 Speaker 1: literally I saw that they were They were burying one 834 00:45:35,320 --> 00:45:40,839 Speaker 1: of their SDF fighters in Kamish Flow today. So unfortunately 835 00:45:40,960 --> 00:45:45,960 Speaker 1: for the people of Fra Java, the killing and dying continues, which, yes, 836 00:45:46,160 --> 00:45:48,560 Speaker 1: it's sad, yes, yeah, I want peace for my friends 837 00:45:48,600 --> 00:45:51,880 Speaker 1: there and in Burma. Like yeah, despite the fact that 838 00:45:52,000 --> 00:45:54,320 Speaker 1: Robert and I get paid to go to wars sometimes, 839 00:45:54,360 --> 00:45:56,200 Speaker 1: it doesn't mean we don't want a friends to live 840 00:45:56,239 --> 00:45:56,560 Speaker 1: in peace. 841 00:45:56,680 --> 00:45:58,560 Speaker 4: Yeah. I would like there to not be any more 842 00:45:58,600 --> 00:45:58,880 Speaker 4: to go to. 843 00:45:59,000 --> 00:45:59,759 Speaker 1: Yeah, that would be great. 844 00:46:00,080 --> 00:46:01,160 Speaker 4: I'll find something else to do. 845 00:46:01,320 --> 00:46:03,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, fuck it, I'll go run with the bulls again. 846 00:46:03,280 --> 00:46:05,960 Speaker 4: I went White Rottter rafting yesterday. It was nice. I 847 00:46:06,000 --> 00:46:06,840 Speaker 4: could just do more of that. 848 00:46:07,280 --> 00:46:08,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, no, I'll will climb. 849 00:46:08,680 --> 00:46:11,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, all right, everybody, We're done for the day. 850 00:46:12,680 --> 00:46:15,279 Speaker 3: Go hopefully not live in a war zone. But if 851 00:46:15,280 --> 00:46:18,120 Speaker 3: you do, hopefully that stops so peace. 852 00:46:20,960 --> 00:46:23,440 Speaker 2: It could happen Here is a production of cool Zone Media. 853 00:46:23,640 --> 00:46:26,680 Speaker 4: For more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website 854 00:46:26,760 --> 00:46:30,279 Speaker 4: Coolzonemedia dot com, or check us out on the iHeartRadio app, 855 00:46:30,400 --> 00:46:33,239 Speaker 4: Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts. 856 00:46:33,719 --> 00:46:35,640 Speaker 2: You can now find sources for it could happen here 857 00:46:35,719 --> 00:46:37,480 Speaker 2: listed directly in episode descriptions. 858 00:46:37,880 --> 00:46:38,640 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening.