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Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business flash and I'm Karen Moscow.

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Speaker 1: CME Group US Docudise futures are higher, tracking oil as

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Speaker 1: the commodity traded near a six month high, with stocks

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Speaker 1: poised rebound following the SMP five hundred steepest drop in

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Speaker 1: a month. To check the markets every fifteen minutes throughout

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Speaker 1: the trading day on Bloomberg SNP EVENI future is up

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Speaker 1: nine and a half points now EVENI futures up sixty

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Speaker 1: and NAS documny futures up eighteen. Ten year Treasury down

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Speaker 1: ten thirty seconds. The yield one point seven six per

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Speaker 1: cent yield on the two year points seven four percent.

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Speaker 1: Nimex screwed oil up one point four percent or sixty

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Speaker 1: seven cents to forty six ninety one a barrel comex

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Speaker 1: scold up about a tenth of o percent, up a

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Speaker 1: dollar to twelve seventy six sixty. Announced the euro at

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Speaker 1: other seven, the yen one oh nine point one eight,

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Speaker 1: and they are exploring a potential bid for US competitor

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Speaker 1: mons Santo. Mont Santo up eleven and a half percent

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Speaker 1: this morning. That's a Bloomberg business flash, Tom and Mike Okay, Roscoe,

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Speaker 1: thank you very much. A lot going on, As Tom said, UH,

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Speaker 1: almost impossible to keep up with everything that is happening,

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Speaker 1: and a lot of it from Brexit to Brazil has

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Speaker 1: impacts on the bond markets. Leader Capital Portfolio Manager Ben

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Speaker 1: Emmons joins us. Now, uh, Ben uh, We we asked

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Speaker 1: on a macro basis, which of these two crises or

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Speaker 1: or news impending news events hanging over the world is

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Speaker 1: more important. But on a on a four x and

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Speaker 1: on a bond market fixed income basis, which is having

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Speaker 1: the most impact, uh, in terms of actually moving markets.

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Speaker 1: Lcome morning, Mike and Tom, thank thanks for I'm going

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Speaker 1: to be back. Um. Well, I do think that the

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Speaker 1: Brexit debate is really start to heat up now. You

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Speaker 1: saw today in the press conference with the Bank of England,

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Speaker 1: so that is becoming a front and center event that's

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Speaker 1: going to have impact on markets. Um. The situation in Brazil,

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Speaker 1: as you mentioned, it's ongoing. It actually ironically has held

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Speaker 1: Brazilian stock, bold and currency markets because it's taken away

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Speaker 1: in certainty about the the you know, the impending impeachment,

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Speaker 1: and therefore markets react more positively. UM. I would also

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Speaker 1: know though that another development that's going on is that

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Speaker 1: the Chinese you want is to weakend again, and that

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Speaker 1: will also become a focus of markets because that was

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Speaker 1: the big event earlier this year that drove a lot

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Speaker 1: of uncertainty influential markets. So I would say Braxit is

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Speaker 1: frun and center. That's what people are going to start

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Speaker 1: looking at that. You can tell from the press conference

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Speaker 1: from the Bank of England that it's like a two

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Speaker 1: way scenario, right if it becomes yes or no, what

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Speaker 1: is the scenario that causes the uncertainty. So I would

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Speaker 1: say that's the case, yeah, I and and it's thrilled

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Speaker 1: Davy on Ben this morning with a with a cacophony

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Speaker 1: is the right word of news that's out there. I

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Speaker 1: would have just been Mark Kearney. Maybe he runs a

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Speaker 1: press conference that everybody would hope for from every central bank.

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Speaker 1: And I don't know if that's from his Golden days

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Speaker 1: or his Canada days Bank of Canada days, but a

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Speaker 1: couple meetings ago he was clear on inflation, and today

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Speaker 1: he was exceptionally clear in his language within the tension

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Speaker 1: on recession in some of these themes, he's it's do

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Speaker 1: you agree it's about our clearest statement by a major

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Speaker 1: central banker? Yeah, I do, because the more transparent they are,

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Speaker 1: the more markets will will behave more orderly I guess right,

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Speaker 1: in the sense that if he comes out with vague language,

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Speaker 1: what good open and it's not clear, then markets are

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Speaker 1: are just not gonna know what's going to happen next there,

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Speaker 1: for you get more volatility. So Mark Arney has been

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Speaker 1: always about this, you mean, he's been one of the

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Speaker 1: first people to buy in there with his four guidance

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Speaker 1: at the Bank of Canada. And as he said today,

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Speaker 1: as you know that now that he actually likes to

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Speaker 1: see in the future that their meetings will be completely open,

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Speaker 1: right that literally the entire world can see their meeting.

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Speaker 1: And in other words, you want to create as maximum

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Speaker 1: transparency as possible so then you can control markets volatility

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Speaker 1: I don't think you can fully control it though it

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Speaker 1: Ultimately markets will just determine, you know, what's value what's not,

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Speaker 1: based upon the action of the Bank of England or

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Speaker 1: all the central Bank. But this transparency is something that

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Speaker 1: he advocates, which as we know Yelling as well as

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Speaker 1: a member Nankie, all of them have increased transparency over

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Speaker 1: time and will probably see more of that. So getting

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Speaker 1: a live meeting of the Bank of England in front

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Speaker 1: of the press, it's not not impossible, right that that

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Speaker 1: would happen in the future. How are people going to

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Speaker 1: play this? When you look at the pound it's up

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Speaker 1: three tenths now or even though Mark Arney warned that

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Speaker 1: Brexit could mean a substantial deterioration in Sterling's value, So

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Speaker 1: do you go up to the last minute and then

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Speaker 1: uh and then try to get out or ure there

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Speaker 1: enough hedges that people can put on that they can

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Speaker 1: continue to trade higher knowing they've got some downside protection. Right.

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Speaker 1: So I think that what people have done is that

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Speaker 1: of course June twenty three is the meeting of the day.

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Speaker 1: So if you're looking at the Sterling options market and

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Speaker 1: currencies or in forward markets, yeah, that's some of that

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Speaker 1: positioning happening there. I think broad away of playing it

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Speaker 1: is about taking past sort of events into consideration of

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Speaker 1: what markets could do. In other words, when we had

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Speaker 1: a referendum in the nineties in Denmark to be in

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Speaker 1: the euro and now that obviously left with a lot

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Speaker 1: of shake up. When we had referendums after that in

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Speaker 1: Europe again about the Euro that's a shake up. So

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Speaker 1: none of words, is a volatility abound that event. My

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Speaker 1: sense is that if you want to position yourself, it's

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Speaker 1: a combination of having a portfolio that's offensive because you're

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Speaker 1: getting central bank reaction to this volatility. At the same time,

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Speaker 1: you have to be defensive going into it. I got

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Speaker 1: kind of balanced portfolio. We're to try to mix things

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Speaker 1: up here. Ben Emmons with this thrilled to have him

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Speaker 1: on from Leader Capital. He's a quiet, smart voice within

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Speaker 1: an incredible news morning, Mike, Can we come back and

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Speaker 1: talk to Mr Emmons about our full faith and credit debt?

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Speaker 1: Possibly he would know a little bit about that. Yeah, sure,

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Speaker 1: I think is going to remain. It's four. I have

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Speaker 1: no idea where Speaker Ryan is or Mr Trump or

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Speaker 1: Secretary Clinton or Senator Sanders, but we know what we

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Speaker 1: do know where Ben Emmons is, so maybe we'll talk

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Speaker 1: to him about some of our theories of fiscal policy

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Speaker 1: and debt. To take a break from the immense swirl

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Speaker 1: of international macroeconomics that we've seen this morning. Again, we

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Speaker 1: specially thanks David blanche For of Dartmouth College for his

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Speaker 1: appearance this morning. He and two economist signed a letter

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Speaker 1: saying don't do Brexit made a big splash, and Charles Goodhart,

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Speaker 1: Stephanie Flanders, Tony Yates from Birmingham, among others. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: come back with Ben Evans. We hope you enjoyed this

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Speaker 1: on economics, finance, investment, on international relations Michael McKee and

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Speaker 1: Tom Keane from New York, and did you worldwide Bloomberg surveillance.

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Speaker 1: We are kind of gotta do the opening well. Brought

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