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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcast Podcast.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go spreading the corn.

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Speaker 3: Ten seconds remaining, so just go show me up to

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Speaker 3: the basket.

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Speaker 1: Under the basket, it's the troup for the wind. God

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Speaker 1: make go up miracle. I'm just chop the water. Hit

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Speaker 1: that one from the parking lot.

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Speaker 4: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast presented by

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Speaker 4: bet MGM. I'm your host, Kai McEwan, joined by the

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Speaker 4: rest of the three man Weave crew, Jim Root and

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Speaker 4: Matt Cox. Every Wednesday morning, we'll be dropping a new

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Speaker 4: BBOC episode talking all things betting in the world of

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Speaker 4: college shoops. On today's episode, we're gonna discuss some key

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Speaker 4: games the week, both the power and mid major level.

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Speaker 4: Give you some takes on spreads, do our classic six

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Speaker 4: pack as we did last season, with some live dogs

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Speaker 4: with some block out cities, highlighting a special spotlight section

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Speaker 4: that we'll get to at the end of the episode.

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Speaker 4: A fantastic look ahead coming up right this second. Let's

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Speaker 4: get started, fellas, we're looking at live dogs of the

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Speaker 4: week to start us off.

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Speaker 3: Where my dog, Where's my.

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Speaker 4: Last season, we did pretty well on these on this section,

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Speaker 4: identifying dogs that can win out right. If they didn't

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Speaker 4: went out right, they usually covered the spread. This is

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Speaker 4: all anecdotal, but I'm going to go with it that

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Speaker 4: we were very very good. Uh I picked out a few.

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Speaker 4: You guys let me know if you want to add some.

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Speaker 4: But we're starting with Wednesday, Northern Iowa against North Carolina

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Speaker 4: in the Bahamas. Now, the Panthers have not looked great,

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Speaker 4: but I think they can hang. I think they have

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Speaker 4: a coaching edge. You've got Rice against New Mexico and Henderson, Nevada.

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Speaker 4: Rice we know as a high variance team. Maybe Jalen

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Speaker 4: House still out for New Mexico, and then finally Purdue

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Speaker 4: Fort Wayne. They're at San France. Tough travel, but Fort

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Speaker 4: Wayne talented guards, already beat to Paul Fellas. What do

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Speaker 4: you think of those three? You're taking any you're leaving them?

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Speaker 4: What do you got, Jim, I'm jumping on my owls.

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Speaker 2: You know I've been a Rice guy leading up to

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Speaker 2: this season. I think that's a like you said, very

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Speaker 2: high variance game. Rice is a big time three point

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Speaker 2: shooting team, so you could get the real hot performance

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Speaker 2: that projects them into the lead. I think their game

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Speaker 2: against Texas was sneaky competitive. They shot terribly from three,

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Speaker 2: and Texas was actually, you know, making shots from the perimeter.

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Speaker 2: And they still covered that game, only lost by sixteen

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Speaker 2: and a twenty point spread, and I think true score

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Speaker 2: of that was a lot closer. And yeah, that the

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Speaker 2: Jalen House thing matters, matt I know you love Donovan

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Speaker 2: Dent and you'll probably sing his praises. He's a great

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Speaker 2: replacement for Jalen House. But I think Rice has got

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Speaker 2: a lot more athleticism. This year. They brought in a

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Speaker 2: fringe top one hundred recruit and keanuy Dawes. They brought

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Speaker 2: in a couple of transfers from power conference level that

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Speaker 2: amp up what they already brought back. I like Rice, Matthew,

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Speaker 2: It's going to be kind of a shootout, but I'm riding.

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Speaker 2: I'm riding that one with Kai at the plus nine

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Speaker 2: or maybe even a little bit lower.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Seldon, the Gardener web transfer, was a beast. I

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Speaker 3: watched him against Texas and I was like, I'm gonna

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Speaker 3: hop all over Rice with my boy Jimbo. But then

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Speaker 3: I kind of had this epiphany that looking good against

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Speaker 3: Texas isn't really looking a good at all. So that's

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Speaker 3: that's my concern Kin, I'll.

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Speaker 2: Drop you know. That's Wayne Seldon's little brother from.

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Speaker 3: He built like an absolute brick house. He does everything. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: he's a good compliment to that kind of fantasy type team. Kai,

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Speaker 3: I'm with you on Purple Panthers. That's gonna be my

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Speaker 3: official ad here. I've been just completely underwhelmed with them

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Speaker 3: so far. So maybe it's just as stubborn sticking to

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Speaker 3: my guns too tightly, but but I believe this too

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Speaker 3: good basketball team, and my loins and my plumes, I

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Speaker 3: believe that is the truth.

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Speaker 2: I can feel it all the way down.

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Speaker 1: I'm a plump.

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Speaker 3: They just not made shots. I feel like it's a

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Speaker 3: good shooting team, Like this is the team that should

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Speaker 3: be able to make outside shots. They have like three

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Speaker 3: or four legit good shooters. They were like, oh of

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Speaker 3: thirty against South Florida from three uh. They clawed back

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Speaker 3: against Store Texas going into the Super Paid and playing

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Speaker 3: them to overtime to find a lot of things going

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Speaker 3: against them. I think they get North Carolina into sort

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Speaker 3: of a slower type of execution type game, and I

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Speaker 3: think get North Carolina, you know, out of their comfort zone,

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Speaker 3: and you're gonna get pre ad price on this game too,

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Speaker 3: moneyline wise, because you probably have an inflated tempo baked

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Speaker 3: in because of UNC I like you, and I mean

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Speaker 3: you and I here, so I'm trying to think what

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Speaker 3: the to my little Esthena's what the price should be.

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Speaker 1: But that's my pick of the litter here, mister mckinn.

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Speaker 4: I like it you and I do. For some shooting aggression,

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Speaker 4: some positive shooting regression. Just twenty five percent from three

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Speaker 4: this year. They are way better than that, and opponents

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Speaker 4: are shooting forty two percent from three against them North

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Speaker 4: Texas and South Florida. We're both hitting shots, and I

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Speaker 4: think it's not a bad game here. I'm not a

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Speaker 4: huge Hubert Davis guy. That's well documented, but fair enough.

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Speaker 4: I'm going with Rice as well. With Jim. I do

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Speaker 4: think you and I covers, so I'll maybe ride the

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Speaker 4: fence on that one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, That's where I'm at on that game. I don't

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Speaker 2: think I want to touch the money line with Northern Iowa,

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Speaker 2: but I think they compete like It's just like you said,

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Speaker 2: the teams kind of underperformed, and I have not been

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Speaker 2: very whelmed by North Carolina when I've watched them. They

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Speaker 2: were up like three against Lee High late in the

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Speaker 2: second half or midway through, and suddenly realized they were

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Speaker 2: way bigger and more athletic and started to pound the

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Speaker 2: rock inside. But just don't get warm fuzzy. So I

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Speaker 2: think North of Iowa hangs, especially if the number is twelve,

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Speaker 2: like Ken pund has.

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Speaker 3: On money Line, Kay, you should get about five to

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Speaker 3: one plus five hundred on you and I, and then

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Speaker 3: about four to one plus four hundred four for Rice.

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Speaker 3: If the market tracks close to the Kempoon. I had

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Speaker 3: no reason to believe it won't for those two games.

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Speaker 3: I think those are two properly priced teams.

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Speaker 1: I guess I don't know.

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Speaker 2: Wednesday Fairley Dickinson taken on Queens. I think this is

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Speaker 2: another a little bit like the Rice New Mexico game,

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Speaker 2: where it's going to be up and down two teams

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Speaker 2: that love to run. Fairy Dickinson's already been fairly competitive

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Speaker 2: this year.

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Speaker 1: Fairly, I see what you did there.

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Speaker 2: They beat Buffalo, but Buffalo might stink. I just am

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Speaker 2: not super sold on Queens yet. They lost a key

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Speaker 2: piece from last year, Kenny Diet point guard, and they've

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Speaker 2: got some injuries early this year that haven't really sorted

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Speaker 2: themselves out down a couple of starters, so Fairley Dickinson

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Speaker 2: could be a little better than the market's price in

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Speaker 2: the mat and I like that one too, So along

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Speaker 2: with eating my big bowl of rice and you and

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Speaker 2: I to cover, I'm taking Fairley Dickinson.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Queen's another guy out. Seabach bes last game too,

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Speaker 4: so they're down Rains, Matthews, and Seabach. Good luck finding

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Speaker 4: any information there if all those three guys are out again.

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Speaker 4: I Fairly Dickinson not a bad look, agreed, matt You

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Speaker 4: good next section. I'm good one one and done for me. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: all right. Blowout City here we go. Games we like

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Speaker 4: in an absolute well, blowout fashion blow out city, hence

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Speaker 4: the name Wednesday. Not a lot of options this week,

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Speaker 4: just because of Feast week. Usually some pretty good matchups.

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Speaker 4: We got two big spreads coming up. Missoo is one

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Speaker 4: of them. They host South Carolina State and then Kansas

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Speaker 4: State hosts Central Arkansas. Well, Maszoo is where Jim and

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Speaker 4: I went, and they are off a horrible loss Jackson State.

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Speaker 4: South Carolina State's kind of in the middle of a

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Speaker 4: massive road trip. They've been blown out before this season

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Speaker 4: and Austin by forty four to South Florida, So hoping

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Speaker 4: the Tigers are a little bit angry here, ready to

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Speaker 4: bounce back and pour it on them. That's kind of

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Speaker 4: the angle there. And then Kansas State. While Central Arkansas

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Speaker 4: has been weirdly competitive with some teams, they still don't

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Speaker 4: have Cameron Hunter their best player. I think the octagon

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Speaker 4: of Doom is going to swallow the Purple Bears. So

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Speaker 4: I probably like Kansas State a little bit better than

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Speaker 4: the Missoo their jim. But what are your thoughts?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Kansas State's the one I like. I don't have

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Speaker 2: a lot of faith in Missoo's ability to blow teams

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Speaker 2: out right now. The offense isn't that good, and there's

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Speaker 2: just like some weird rotational issues where they don't know

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Speaker 2: which lineups are good. They're playing so many guys trying

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Speaker 2: to figure it out, and it feels like half their

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Speaker 2: guys are good at offense and half are good at defense,

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Speaker 2: and they don't know how to mesh those things and

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Speaker 2: come up with some sort of balanced line up up.

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Speaker 2: So Miszoo, I'm not really trusting. Central Arkansas I think

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Speaker 2: is not good. They hung real close with Southeast Missouri

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Speaker 2: State on Monday night. I think that's more representative cimo's

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Speaker 2: issues than anything in Case State coming back from their

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Speaker 2: MTE I think they're gonna just smash. I think there's

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Speaker 2: incentive there to do it after a loss down in

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Speaker 2: I think it was the Bahamas. Yes, they were playing

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Speaker 2: the Bahamar. Yeah, so yeah, matt I think Case State's

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Speaker 2: a good one. And on Thursday, I actually also like

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Speaker 2: Iowa State well out VCU, But that's a whole another story.

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Speaker 2: We don't have to dig too far into that game.

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Speaker 2: It's not as big of a spread. It's eleven on Kempum.

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Speaker 2: What about you, Matthew.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna throw it in there for Friday.

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Speaker 3: Actually, and you know, not a team that people think

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Speaker 3: are probably super high on this year, LSU sort of.

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Speaker 3: I looked in disarray for a lot of this Season's

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Speaker 3: already lost to a bad team at home, So you

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Speaker 3: could argue it's almost a good money line counterpoint here,

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Speaker 3: But they're playing North Florida, and North Florida has played

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Speaker 3: zero good teams so far this year, and when they

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Speaker 3: have played good teams in the past, other Matthew Driscoll,

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Speaker 3: even with more talent, and they have this season, they've

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Speaker 3: been blown out. They just don't have any sort of

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Speaker 3: like actual size and athletes they played last year. It

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Speaker 3: just stinks right like bigger teams can just gobble up

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Speaker 3: offensive rebounds. So it's you have like if you make shots,

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Speaker 3: you're going to crush them. If you don't, you can

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Speaker 3: still give your second and third chances and still still

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Speaker 3: crush them. And LSU is enormous upfront. We saw that

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Speaker 3: play out against waken was it Utah or Utah in

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Speaker 3: that the Charleston So yeah, I think LSU bawls this team,

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Speaker 3: and I'm a little worried that they're going to come

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Speaker 3: back fat and happy after two wins of that tournament.

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Speaker 4: Gym.

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Speaker 3: Kind of counter to your point about k State, but

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Speaker 3: I just think the match up here is too jutsu

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Speaker 3: to pass up. So LSU laying whatever number against the

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Speaker 3: Birds of Trey, which will be Birds of prey very surely.

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Speaker 2: Here's your North Florida's margins last year are playing up

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Speaker 2: against good Power Conference teams. Lost by forty one to Gonzaga,

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Speaker 2: lost by forty to Kentucky, lost by thirty four to Houston,

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Speaker 2: lost by thirty six to pit So thirty four or

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Speaker 2: more all four times.

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Speaker 3: Right, hopefully get twenty high twenties or less would be

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Speaker 3: great for the price that.

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Speaker 4: Just a quick one there met LSU lost to Dayton

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Speaker 4: and they beat North Texas and at Wake Forest. Yeah

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Speaker 4: competitive really all three games, all three games. I faded

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Speaker 4: them all three games. So that's a's a one two,

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Speaker 4: one and two recor right there. Okay, next section is

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Speaker 4: our power games of the week, But first a word

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Speaker 4: Gamming problem call one eight hundred gambler. All right, fellas

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Speaker 4: power game of the week, Oh, I could feel starting

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Speaker 4: with Wednesday. We don't really know the MAUI matchups quite yet,

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Speaker 4: but that's clearly the the wealth of the best game,

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Speaker 4: maybe of the entire season, because we're likely to see

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Speaker 4: we are going to see the winner of Tennessee Purdue

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Speaker 4: and Kansas Marquette. These spreads would tell you, if you

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Speaker 4: go with the favorites today Matthew, that Purdue will play Kansas,

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Speaker 4: and boy would that matchup be sweet thoughts. I guess

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Speaker 4: I'm MAUI the next couple of days we'll frame it

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Speaker 4: is that ment.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, my angle here is just other than enjoy enjoying

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Speaker 3: college basketball at its highest level. Of course, although some

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Speaker 3: of those games in the opening so you're pretty ugly

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Speaker 3: early on, but Kansas, I'm looking to fade. And I'm

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Speaker 3: not saying Kansas is not a good team, but in

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Speaker 3: this matchup where a severe lack of depth has kind

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Speaker 3: of reared its ugly head so far. We were there

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Speaker 3: in person. We heard Bill self talk about it in

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Speaker 3: the flash of the Champions Classic, just he sort of

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Speaker 3: is getting gives off that, like, I am concerned about

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Speaker 3: our team in certain situations vibe and I think this

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Speaker 3: is one of those with minimal bodies on back to

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Speaker 3: back to back games. That's kind of my angle here,

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Speaker 3: fading Kansas at the end of this tournament. Here, Jim,

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Speaker 3: not that I think they're, you know, a fade long term,

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Speaker 3: but just situationally, it seems like they're going to crack

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Speaker 3: against some of these deeper, high caliber teams.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's kind of how I feel about Gonzaga. Also,

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Speaker 2: despite j Billis insisting that they were ten deep, which

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Speaker 2: is insane because they only have nine healthy scholarship players

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Speaker 2: in the playing seventh. They're playing seven. They're like three

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Speaker 2: hundred and fifty fifth in bench minutes as we record

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Speaker 2: this right now, so that is not a deep team.

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Speaker 2: They're two guards, Hickman and Nemhart, play like all forty

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Speaker 2: minutes basically every game. So I think Gonzaga might be

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Speaker 2: worth a look at a fade or maybe even an

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Speaker 2: under on the last stage because I think they're going

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Speaker 2: to have to play a little bit slower now Kai

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Speaker 2: in the Championship. But like you said, as we record

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Speaker 2: this on Tuesday, we don't know the matchup, but Purdue

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Speaker 2: Kansas the likely matchup based on spreads. I can't wait

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Speaker 2: to see Zachi Versus vers Hunter Dickinson. I mean, those

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Speaker 2: those two the two favorites right now, front runners for

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Speaker 2: National Player of the Year, considering the numbers they're putting

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Speaker 2: up just two smashing each other, kind of a kaiju

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Speaker 2: versus Yaeger for a Pacific rim comparison to Kai. Just

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Speaker 2: monsters going at each other in the paint. I don't

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Speaker 2: think I have much of a lean. Maybe maybe a

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Speaker 2: little bit with Matt so a fade of Kansas and

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Speaker 2: I think Purdue is actually looking a little better. But

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Speaker 2: Dwan Harris harassing Braden Smith still scares me a little bit.

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Speaker 2: Need to see a little more out of Produce point

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Speaker 2: Guard before I completely.

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Speaker 4: Hop on board there. Yeah, TVD on that one for me.

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Speaker 4: Dickinson Needy of course played last year, right, Purdue Michigan

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Speaker 4: both had great games. I expect kind of the same story.

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Speaker 4: Uh yeah, I lean to Purdue in that one. I'm

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Speaker 4: not so sure Kansas gets past Marquette today as we record,

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Speaker 4: but that's another story for another day. I like that.

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Speaker 4: I like that.

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Speaker 2: Something that could age terribly slip it in there.

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Speaker 4: That's good. That's good. Thursday, we have a really good matchup.

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Speaker 4: It's Michigan State in Arizona. It's m Palm Springs, so

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Speaker 4: we had a neutral here. Arizona is favored by six

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Speaker 4: on kin pump and they look like a juggernaut so

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Speaker 4: far this season, Jim could be the best team in

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Speaker 4: the country. They've done nothing wrong. They've been blowing teams out.

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Speaker 4: They should. They beat Duke at Duke and Sparty, as

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Speaker 4: most people know, has started very very slow. Tyson Walker

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Speaker 4: miss last game. We're not totally sure about his status,

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Speaker 4: but they just haven't looked very good in general. Been

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Speaker 4: shooting like crap your thoughts.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I know, Tyson Walker's been a little bit banged up,

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Speaker 2: and I think they announced it his illness was why

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Speaker 2: he missed. But it did feel like, let's just sit him,

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Speaker 2: rest him. And it might have been awesome for Michigan

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Speaker 2: State because it forced everybody else to step up and

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Speaker 2: they couldn't just stand and pass the ball to Tyson

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Speaker 2: and Hope, and they came out and torched Alcorn State

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Speaker 2: like right from the jump, they were all over him.

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Speaker 2: Might have been good for their confidence. But Matt, I'm

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Speaker 2: not going against Arizona. I think Kai might be onto

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Speaker 2: something with potentially the best team in the country. They've

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Speaker 2: got size, they've got versatility, they've got incredible guard playmaking.

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Speaker 2: Caleb Glove is actually folded seamlessly into this defense and

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Speaker 2: isn't chucking offensively the way I was sort of concerned

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Speaker 2: that he would. Keisha Johnson's just given them so much

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Speaker 2: more mo line up versatility, and they've kind of got

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Speaker 2: a little bit of Sonogo clinging with Ballow and Crethus

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Speaker 2: like you just cannot rest on your laurels at all

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Speaker 2: with the way they go after the glass. And I

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Speaker 2: just don't love how Michigan statement has looked at I

319
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Speaker 2: don't think they're anywhere near firing on all cylinders. A. J.

320
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Speaker 2: Hogard is kind of a shell of himself right now,

321
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Speaker 2: and he's more of an attitude guy than a production guy.

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Speaker 2: You can't have that going against Arizona. So like six

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Speaker 2: and a half, and even if it's shaded up from

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Speaker 2: the Ken palm line of six, I would probably lay

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Speaker 2: it with Arizona.

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Speaker 1: Man, I feel like this could get bet up to

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Speaker 1: like some stupid like eight or nine numbers.

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Speaker 2: Just lets to touch it.

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Speaker 3: There's a number where I would bet Sparti, but I

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Speaker 3: feel like that number is like thirteen or something stupid. Right,

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Speaker 3: You're not going to see thirteen in this game. I

332
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Speaker 3: just bet against Arizona foolishly last game, felling pretty to

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Speaker 3: by myself. The MAVs e t Ellington when nearby had

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00:15:54,320 --> 00:15:56,520
Speaker 3: a good spot there. They were up twenty eight to

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Speaker 3: twenty six, I think late in the first half. I think,

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Speaker 3: only down a painful at the half and then a

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Speaker 3: fifty to five run Kai fifty to five run. Oh yeah,

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Speaker 3: I was my plus twenty eight was quickly not even competitive.

339
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Speaker 3: Arizona has that spurt ability this year, right, and I

340
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Speaker 3: think we've seen them do it against the big boys.

341
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Speaker 3: Literally went and to do and did it, so they've

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Speaker 3: proven all you can prove. You can't really question or

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Speaker 3: nitpick anything about their roster, even get some partial home here. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: I think Arizona minus the big numbers probably.

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Speaker 1: Where I'm looking at.

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Speaker 4: And then real quick guys, Atlantis to start on Wednesday.

347
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Speaker 4: General thoughts in the tournament. We talked to you and

348
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Speaker 4: I North Carolina a little bit. I kind of like Michigan,

349
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Speaker 4: Jim Frankly, I think they're an awesome team. They lost

350
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Speaker 4: the Long Beach, so maybe they what they showed early

351
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Speaker 4: is not sustainable, But I think I'm looking there. I'm

352
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Speaker 4: looking at Texas Tech as well, because I really think

353
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Speaker 4: Grant mcasm is an incredible coach. Villanova's looks shaky, and

354
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Speaker 4: North Carolina again, don't really trust them with Youbert Davis.

355
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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a spot I like. Is Texas Tech against

356
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Speaker 2: Villanova in that first round. I think I'll probably end

357
00:17:00,680 --> 00:17:03,040
Speaker 2: up on the rid raid is in that one because

358
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Speaker 2: I just man, I think mcaslym can coach circles around

359
00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:09,639
Speaker 2: Neptune kind that other side of the bracket, the bottom half.

360
00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:12,200
Speaker 2: Arkansas was kind of presumed like, all right, this is

361
00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:14,760
Speaker 2: the best team on this half, but I would argue

362
00:17:14,760 --> 00:17:17,320
Speaker 2: that Memphis and Michigan have both looked better than Arkansas,

363
00:17:17,520 --> 00:17:19,639
Speaker 2: who dropped a by game to you and see Greensboro.

364
00:17:20,160 --> 00:17:23,520
Speaker 2: Stanford is kind of banged up, so I'm not expecting

365
00:17:23,560 --> 00:17:25,680
Speaker 2: much out of them. But I think your finalists are

366
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Speaker 2: between whoever wins Michigan and Memphis because those two I

367
00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:32,640
Speaker 2: have kind of figured things out a little more, Matthew,

368
00:17:33,680 --> 00:17:36,800
Speaker 2: So probably betting Texas Tech first round, and then either

369
00:17:36,880 --> 00:17:40,360
Speaker 2: Michigan or Memphis in that second round game against probably

370
00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:42,880
Speaker 2: still Arkansas, I'll be betting that team.

371
00:17:43,400 --> 00:17:46,439
Speaker 3: Kai no Northern Islan endorsement from US here, probably too big.

372
00:17:46,320 --> 00:17:48,360
Speaker 4: Of a not to win little thing, but I think

373
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Speaker 4: I can beat you and c as we discussed at

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Speaker 4: the top of the show.

375
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree at Jim's point on Michigan versus Memphis. However,

376
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Speaker 3: Michigan losing to Long Beach day at home is obviously,

377
00:17:57,400 --> 00:17:59,960
Speaker 3: you know, eye opening, and then Memphis hasn't really done

378
00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:03,120
Speaker 3: much either. I think that win against your Missouri Tigers

379
00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:06,400
Speaker 3: is quickly losing its luster as the days go by.

380
00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:08,679
Speaker 3: So I kind of went back to my you and

381
00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:10,440
Speaker 3: I love as like just sort of a hill Mary

382
00:18:10,480 --> 00:18:12,399
Speaker 3: flyer on that one. You actually you can find some

383
00:18:12,400 --> 00:18:14,560
Speaker 3: pretty good the whole challenges on these tournaments are actually

384
00:18:14,560 --> 00:18:16,919
Speaker 3: pretty good. You actually a pretty good value betting the

385
00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:18,720
Speaker 3: pre tournament as opposed you're doing like a money line

386
00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:21,920
Speaker 3: rollover strategy here. I still like Michigan now. I think

387
00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:23,840
Speaker 3: actually that loss sets up well for them to come

388
00:18:23,840 --> 00:18:27,119
Speaker 3: out ultra focused, and I don't think Memphis is going

389
00:18:27,160 --> 00:18:28,680
Speaker 3: to play any sort of weird zone that they saw

390
00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:30,679
Speaker 3: against Long Beach, So I think it's just a good matchup,

391
00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:32,800
Speaker 3: good spot. I like Michigan ate out of that first

392
00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:35,680
Speaker 3: round game, and that's probably my pick to win that tournament.

393
00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:39,640
Speaker 4: Alrighty, moving on, mid major Game of the Week got

394
00:18:39,640 --> 00:18:42,959
Speaker 4: some good ones. On Wednesday, we have UC Irvine and

395
00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:47,240
Speaker 4: Toledo and Henderson, Nevada, both great teams. Kim Pom has

396
00:18:47,280 --> 00:18:50,880
Speaker 4: this as UC Irvine minus three. Little clash of styles. Here.

397
00:18:50,920 --> 00:18:55,439
Speaker 4: We have the offensive Juggernauts that are Toledo even this

398
00:18:55,480 --> 00:18:58,440
Speaker 4: season despite losing some pretty good players from last year.

399
00:18:58,440 --> 00:19:01,080
Speaker 4: There once again among the best offenses in the country,

400
00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:03,679
Speaker 4: not just among the mid mid major teams, and the

401
00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:06,800
Speaker 4: new serial Vine of course, always stalwart defensively already have

402
00:19:06,840 --> 00:19:09,440
Speaker 4: a huge win against USC and then also that day

403
00:19:09,560 --> 00:19:12,960
Speaker 4: on Wednesday, Harvard goes to Colgate. A little three points

404
00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:15,720
Speaker 4: spread here as well, per Kin pum in favor of Colgate.

405
00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:18,960
Speaker 4: Harvard been excellent this year against the spread, their three

406
00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:21,840
Speaker 4: and one, their one loss coming to Boston College following

407
00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:25,760
Speaker 4: a massive UMass win in overtime, and then cold cat

408
00:19:25,840 --> 00:19:26,880
Speaker 4: around there for a tough.

409
00:19:26,760 --> 00:19:28,960
Speaker 2: Tough You got to forgive them playing back to back

410
00:19:29,000 --> 00:19:30,120
Speaker 2: against the state rivals.

411
00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:33,280
Speaker 4: Absolutely, and then Colgate went through a mini mid major

412
00:19:33,320 --> 00:19:37,879
Speaker 4: gauntlet in Canada Garner, Webb and Yale. They just traded

413
00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:40,560
Speaker 4: body blows the entire time that tournament. Weaper State as well.

414
00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:43,200
Speaker 4: Still a good team, still looking to kind of rediscover

415
00:19:43,240 --> 00:19:46,000
Speaker 4: their shot from last couple of seasons. They've started off

416
00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:48,320
Speaker 4: kind of cold this year. So, Matt, your thoughts on

417
00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:51,040
Speaker 4: these two mid major games. Yeah, Toledo game has my

418
00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:54,240
Speaker 4: interest for sure. Like their offense is awesome, their defense

419
00:19:54,400 --> 00:19:57,800
Speaker 4: is still very, very questionable. And as much as I

420
00:19:57,840 --> 00:19:59,480
Speaker 4: like this rocket shit bunch, I mean, they have put

421
00:19:59,520 --> 00:20:02,240
Speaker 4: up points against Detroit, Mercy, Louisiana, and Wright State, I

422
00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:05,040
Speaker 4: wouldn't call those three vaulted defenses by any stretch either.

423
00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:08,240
Speaker 4: You know, you see Irvine, They're not exactly the defensive

424
00:20:08,480 --> 00:20:11,200
Speaker 4: fortress that they were under turned for many years, but

425
00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:13,760
Speaker 4: they can still guard. They have more size, may better

426
00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:15,720
Speaker 4: defense play than any of those three teams. I like

427
00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:18,879
Speaker 4: Irvine in that spot because closer, you know, Nevada to

428
00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:20,080
Speaker 4: California obvious.

429
00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:21,120
Speaker 1: A little bit easier to travel as well.

430
00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:23,840
Speaker 3: So I'll probably lane the Eaters in that one, but

431
00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:26,480
Speaker 3: no official play and got even Colgates like you could

432
00:20:26,520 --> 00:20:28,359
Speaker 3: argue it's a good spot, but it's also just a

433
00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:30,960
Speaker 3: terrible spot traveling back from Canada as hard as it

434
00:20:31,040 --> 00:20:33,840
Speaker 3: was to get to New Brunswick too, So I went

435
00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:35,880
Speaker 3: no part of the Raiders honestly until conference play. That's

436
00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:38,800
Speaker 3: kind of my approach with Colgia in general. Bettnywise Harvard

437
00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:39,440
Speaker 3: is an underdog.

438
00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:43,120
Speaker 2: They're fantastic. It's something like a sixty three percent bet.

439
00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:46,600
Speaker 2: With Tommy Amicker in charge as an underdog going all

440
00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:48,760
Speaker 2: the way back to his days there. They just play

441
00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:51,200
Speaker 2: up really, really well, and Malik Mack has been such

442
00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:54,320
Speaker 2: an infusion of life into their offense in the back court,

443
00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:56,560
Speaker 2: like they just didn't have much of a creator.

444
00:20:56,520 --> 00:20:57,240
Speaker 4: In past years.

445
00:20:57,280 --> 00:20:59,320
Speaker 2: Now they've got that to go with all the athleticism

446
00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:02,520
Speaker 2: that they've had for years and years. Definitely lean towards

447
00:21:02,520 --> 00:21:04,480
Speaker 2: Harvard there, Matt and the other one. You lean towards

448
00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:06,639
Speaker 2: the Eaters. But we got we got to introduce the

449
00:21:06,680 --> 00:21:10,679
Speaker 2: listeners to to Toledo Faighters Anonymous TFA the group that

450
00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:13,680
Speaker 2: I have started and instituted that it's for people who

451
00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:16,359
Speaker 2: incessantly bet against Toledo and should not do it. Don't

452
00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:17,359
Speaker 2: do it. We encourage you.

453
00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:19,240
Speaker 4: Not to mixed up and nothing.

454
00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:21,360
Speaker 2: Toledo is three to oh against the spread this year,

455
00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:24,240
Speaker 2: covering by an average of eight points a game. They

456
00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:26,240
Speaker 2: are the best ATS team in the country over the

457
00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:29,800
Speaker 2: past two plus seasons. I have no interest in being

458
00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:31,600
Speaker 2: against them. Kai I make that closer to a pick.

459
00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:34,359
Speaker 2: I think Irvine might be a little overvalued because beating

460
00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:38,160
Speaker 2: USC without Boogie Ellis or Kobe Johnson, so that one

461
00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:40,320
Speaker 2: actually numerically leans towards the rockets.

462
00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:43,479
Speaker 4: For me, I also like Toledo leaning that way, and

463
00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:46,200
Speaker 4: Harvard is where a lean as well. I think that's right.

464
00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:49,000
Speaker 4: With the travel coming back for Colgate, they are due

465
00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:50,880
Speaker 4: to start shooting better. But man, Harvard is a dog,

466
00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:52,880
Speaker 4: is tough. I think they have a pretty good team

467
00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:56,800
Speaker 4: this season. So that's Riyleen all right. Trash man pick

468
00:21:56,800 --> 00:21:59,359
Speaker 4: of the week, The trash man pick of the week.

469
00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:02,760
Speaker 1: The trash man, just throw me in the trash your

470
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:05,760
Speaker 1: garbage and you know it. Totally unreliable?

471
00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:07,040
Speaker 2: Are undependentble it?

472
00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:07,439
Speaker 1: That's it.

473
00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:08,200
Speaker 4: You've been told off.

474
00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:08,760
Speaker 1: How do you like that?

475
00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:09,440
Speaker 3: Good?

476
00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:13,159
Speaker 4: Just one the ultimate trash pile. That's the rules in

477
00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:17,159
Speaker 4: this section. Again, some pretty good games this week. Not

478
00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:19,719
Speaker 4: a whole lot to choose from. But I went dumpster

479
00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:23,360
Speaker 4: diving and I found marylynd Eishron Shore at Notre Dame.

480
00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:24,879
Speaker 4: It's growth, you found the.

481
00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:27,960
Speaker 2: Right one, Kai, I approve stamp of approval of this choice.

482
00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:31,400
Speaker 4: Why is this the trash man pick of the week? Well, ums,

483
00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:34,640
Speaker 4: Mary least Shore is a bottom five offense in the country.

484
00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:37,760
Speaker 4: They're sort of known for a grittier style of basketball,

485
00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:40,639
Speaker 4: not super fun to watch, but they can be scrappy dogs.

486
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:44,920
Speaker 4: They'd beat pen already this season. There's some magic over

487
00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:47,800
Speaker 4: there that school that they can just beat good teams.

488
00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:50,800
Speaker 4: And then Notre Dame still a very young team, still

489
00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:53,480
Speaker 4: clearly learning how to play together. They just beat Oklhomba State,

490
00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:57,040
Speaker 4: a very good win. Prior games looked pretty ugly and

491
00:22:57,080 --> 00:23:01,280
Speaker 4: they play a very slow style under Bery. I don't

492
00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:03,679
Speaker 4: think he's necessarily going to try to run quicker in

493
00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:06,560
Speaker 4: this game, despite the opponent. So Matt, it's just not

494
00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:08,560
Speaker 4: going to be a very fun game to watch, No,

495
00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:08,920
Speaker 4: it's not.

496
00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:11,320
Speaker 3: I mean, I back the I reached twice in that

497
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:14,360
Speaker 3: Barclay's thing and you know it went well the second game.

498
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:17,160
Speaker 3: But they certainly are They look like him in major

499
00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:20,919
Speaker 3: team at times, There's no question about it. And you mess, man,

500
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:23,040
Speaker 3: They've been kind of a feisty dog historically. Like I

501
00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:24,560
Speaker 3: don't know if this version as good as the last

502
00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:26,840
Speaker 3: couple of years, but I think you have to get involved.

503
00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:28,679
Speaker 1: It probably take you mess and close your eyes.

504
00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:32,000
Speaker 4: You mess, Yeah, you mess.

505
00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:33,800
Speaker 2: I don't want to lay a lot of points with

506
00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:35,760
Speaker 2: this Notre Dame team, I don't think they're going to

507
00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:39,120
Speaker 2: be a good favorite given their talent level, better chance

508
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:41,480
Speaker 2: of slowing it down and mucking it up and being

509
00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:46,760
Speaker 2: out coach or out coaching opposing teams. That's the spot

510
00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:49,240
Speaker 2: I want to look for. Notre Dame. Ken Pom projects

511
00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:52,720
Speaker 2: us at sixty nine possessions. I would wager a decent

512
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:53,760
Speaker 2: chunk of change it.

513
00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:56,080
Speaker 4: Is lower than that, it will land somewhere around.

514
00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:58,840
Speaker 2: Like sixty five. I don't think Notre Dame really loves

515
00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:01,200
Speaker 2: to speed things up, and you mess is going to

516
00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:04,440
Speaker 2: try to muck it up and make it messy easier

517
00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:07,080
Speaker 2: to cover in that kind of a grittier game. Like

518
00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:10,879
Speaker 2: Kai mentioned, I definitely lean towards the underdog in this

519
00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:14,679
Speaker 2: one and probably going to bet the under Kay. I

520
00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:16,240
Speaker 2: just think it's going to be a slog.

521
00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:20,680
Speaker 4: That's where my opinions lie as well. Well said all right,

522
00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:25,879
Speaker 4: last section spotlight, we're spotlighting the early Hot and not

523
00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:30,639
Speaker 4: ATS teams, So talking about records, talking about cover margin,

524
00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:34,399
Speaker 4: and maybe some opinions on if they're for real or

525
00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:37,040
Speaker 4: if it's sort of an aberration. So the five and

526
00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:38,920
Speaker 4: oh crew, there are three teams in the country that

527
00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:43,720
Speaker 4: are currently five and oh against the spread. They are Arizona, Oakland,

528
00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:48,879
Speaker 4: Oakland five and oh and Mississippi State. Now Arizona sporting

529
00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:53,200
Speaker 4: almost a fifteen point cover margin, which is bonkers at

530
00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:56,359
Speaker 4: through a five game sample, but Oakland right behind at eleven,

531
00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:59,159
Speaker 4: Misssippi State a little more reasonable plus six and a half.

532
00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:02,600
Speaker 4: All three teams have looked fantastic. Jim, we saw Mississippi

533
00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:06,160
Speaker 4: State in person. We've watched Arizona on TV, and man,

534
00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:09,200
Speaker 4: the fighting great Campies at Oakland a bit of a surprise,

535
00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:11,600
Speaker 4: I would say to start.

536
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna let Matt Wax poetic about

537
00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:17,399
Speaker 2: his Golden Grizzlies because he wrote them up for the

538
00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:20,400
Speaker 2: Almanac this preseason. Hey, if you haven't bought that, why

539
00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:21,080
Speaker 2: not go for it?

540
00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:21,720
Speaker 1: Funny Tom.

541
00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:26,240
Speaker 2: But yeah, Oakland, Oakan's a whole different animal. But the

542
00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:29,160
Speaker 2: two Power Conference teams here, Yeah, Arizona, we already said

543
00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:30,720
Speaker 2: we think there's a chance of the number one team

544
00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:33,879
Speaker 2: in the country. The way that Lloyd has fit the

545
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:38,280
Speaker 2: roster has been really, really impressive. It seems like Caleblove's

546
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:40,960
Speaker 2: kind of sacrificed the ego and they can play so

547
00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:43,280
Speaker 2: many different ways, Matt, And that's something they couldn't do

548
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:45,800
Speaker 2: in the past. In the past it was play fast,

549
00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:48,639
Speaker 2: pound you inside with their two big lineup, and you know,

550
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:50,600
Speaker 2: if you can mess with their guards a little bit

551
00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:53,280
Speaker 2: and Kirk Crease's turnover issues, then you could take them

552
00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:56,959
Speaker 2: out of rhythm. Kylon Boswell is much better than Kirk Crisa.

553
00:25:57,080 --> 00:25:58,000
Speaker 1: He is more of.

554
00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:02,000
Speaker 2: A rebel point guard. I'm sorry if that's too much

555
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:04,679
Speaker 2: shade at mister Creasa there, but he's more measured, he's

556
00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:09,000
Speaker 2: steady or he's not as prone to emotional outbursts, and I.

557
00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:09,680
Speaker 4: Love that better.

558
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:10,320
Speaker 1: It's just good.

559
00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:13,439
Speaker 2: Yeah. I love the center rotation that have got there

560
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 2: Insissippi State. I mean, they're ridiculous defensively, and they're playing

561
00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:20,240
Speaker 2: without their best big man, Till Lou Smith, but they're

562
00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:23,080
Speaker 2: just everywhere with all kinds of athletes in length and

563
00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:26,160
Speaker 2: Josh Hubbard and Trey Ford have given them the offensive

564
00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:28,800
Speaker 2: punch that they needed in the back court, and their

565
00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:31,560
Speaker 2: shooting isn't as completely dire and terrible as it was

566
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:34,000
Speaker 2: last year. So yeah, Matt, you were kind of in

567
00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:37,760
Speaker 2: on the Bulldogs preseason, even with or without Till Lou Smith,

568
00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:40,119
Speaker 2: and you have been proven very very correct.

569
00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:41,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know if I want to see Jimmy

570
00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:43,760
Speaker 3: Bell get so much usage the rest of the year.

571
00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:45,639
Speaker 3: I feel like that's sort of a ticking time bomb.

572
00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:48,960
Speaker 3: Like just the guy is a lowed but obviously a

573
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:51,320
Speaker 3: very poor men's version of Till Lou Smith, and they

574
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:53,360
Speaker 3: think they featured too much. But yeah, the new additions

575
00:26:53,359 --> 00:26:56,200
Speaker 3: are have clearly opened up this offense and they still

576
00:26:56,200 --> 00:27:00,560
Speaker 3: guard like gangbusters. So to me, I think the Oakland, well,

577
00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:03,679
Speaker 3: it's such a unique team. Like you have Jack Golkie

578
00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 3: who has attempted fifty seven threes this year, not a

579
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:09,920
Speaker 3: single two point jump shot, nineteen to fifty games, three

580
00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:10,800
Speaker 3: or five games.

581
00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:11,720
Speaker 1: You have TREYE.

582
00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:13,679
Speaker 3: Townsen, who's their best player, kind of like this weird

583
00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:15,879
Speaker 3: tweeer Swiss army knife. He's just like really hard to

584
00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:17,840
Speaker 3: defend him if you haven't seen him before. You have

585
00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:20,080
Speaker 3: Rocket Wats still doing this thing, actually playing better for

586
00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:23,679
Speaker 3: once in his career. Got these like Juco guys, a

587
00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:26,040
Speaker 3: Brew I can't say his last name.

588
00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:28,360
Speaker 1: He's just debuted, so he's really athletic.

589
00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:32,160
Speaker 3: If Isaiah Jones from Detroit Mercy, it's really like unorthodox,

590
00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:34,320
Speaker 3: unique team. I think it's working in their favor. It's

591
00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:36,120
Speaker 3: like hard for teams to prepare for and they play

592
00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 3: that weird, funky zone on the other end of the floor.

593
00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:40,160
Speaker 3: So it's just like, you know, maybe an conference player

594
00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:42,399
Speaker 3: won't be as dominant, but for these non conference foes,

595
00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:45,080
Speaker 3: there's just a lot of like it's like a funhouse

596
00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:45,920
Speaker 3: of mears kai.

597
00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:47,679
Speaker 1: That's just it's tough to prep for.

598
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:50,679
Speaker 2: So coming out of the tournament, for Oakland, they've got

599
00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:54,720
Speaker 2: at Xavier on Monday at Detroit obviously no travel early

600
00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:57,600
Speaker 2: there for Oakland. Yeah, I think those are two good

601
00:27:57,960 --> 00:28:00,960
Speaker 2: continued to back spots for Oakland regardless of what happens

602
00:28:01,080 --> 00:28:03,960
Speaker 2: here in the tournament over Tuesday, as we record and Wednesday,

603
00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:07,399
Speaker 2: I'm not super sulten. Xavier is a big favorite right

604
00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:11,440
Speaker 2: now given their roster limitations, and then Detroit is bad,

605
00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:13,480
Speaker 2: So give me Oakland there, I agree.

606
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:16,120
Speaker 4: So teams that are still very good. So we're going

607
00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:20,000
Speaker 4: top cover margins. Now, these teams haven't played five games yet,

608
00:28:20,119 --> 00:28:22,280
Speaker 4: they can't be five and oh but they're all undefeated

609
00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:24,679
Speaker 4: against the spread and they are sporting the best average

610
00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:28,880
Speaker 4: cover margins in the country number one. I'm shocked if

611
00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:32,000
Speaker 4: you told me this in the preseason, it's Evansville. Evansville

612
00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:34,760
Speaker 4: is covering by nineteen points per game this season in

613
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:39,600
Speaker 4: three games, They've been objectively awesome. I talked to David Raglan,

614
00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:42,320
Speaker 4: their head coach, this offseason, and he was certainly more

615
00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:45,120
Speaker 4: confident heading into the year, but I think even he

616
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:48,880
Speaker 4: would be surprised by their start. Terrific defensive team thus far,

617
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:53,440
Speaker 4: competition not great, but still impressive from a relative lens.

618
00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:57,200
Speaker 4: Pitt has looked amazing. Their four and against whatever the

619
00:28:57,200 --> 00:29:01,600
Speaker 4: plus eighteen cover margin Iowa State has looked incredible. There

620
00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:04,000
Speaker 4: they are four and oh with a plus sixteen cover margin,

621
00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:07,000
Speaker 4: and then b Yu, the new Big twelve team on

622
00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:10,520
Speaker 4: the block is also four and oh sixteen point cover margin.

623
00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:14,640
Speaker 4: All four teams I sort of buy as being better

624
00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:17,600
Speaker 4: than last year. Matt even Pitt a team that I

625
00:29:17,640 --> 00:29:22,160
Speaker 4: wasn't necessarily high on, but they're freshman guards Low and Carrington.

626
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:25,000
Speaker 4: They're legit, and if they are legit, then this team

627
00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:25,880
Speaker 4: is quite good.

628
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:27,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, Pitt was, Yeah, they're better than last year. I

629
00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:30,640
Speaker 3: think there's no question they've beaten some like not just

630
00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:32,920
Speaker 3: like good, some good and major team like Binghamton. I

631
00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:36,120
Speaker 3: think's kind of a good team and they just destroyed them.

632
00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:39,360
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think Pitt's very real. Evansville is questionable. Like,

633
00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:41,400
Speaker 3: I don't think it's a really talented team, and they'd

634
00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:43,920
Speaker 3: be really good in non conference last season, but they

635
00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:45,840
Speaker 3: have more talent than last year, so maybe that upholds.

636
00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:48,520
Speaker 3: I don't know, I always stay I'm sort of still

637
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 3: wait and see if that's going to continue to sustain

638
00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:53,280
Speaker 3: against big boy competition. We haven't seen them really planning

639
00:29:53,360 --> 00:29:55,760
Speaker 3: one legit legit yet they bye.

640
00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:57,200
Speaker 2: Worst schedule in the country.

641
00:29:57,280 --> 00:30:01,760
Speaker 4: Person, Yeah, I'm I don't here, I'm buying.

642
00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:04,200
Speaker 2: Oh, I am too. I think they're like actually a

643
00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:07,360
Speaker 2: top fifteen team. They're getting scoring from my guy mom Kilovich,

644
00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:10,320
Speaker 2: the freshman. So yeah, that's sorry to interrupt you, but important.

645
00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:12,360
Speaker 1: I mean the same take though for Byu, I just don't.

646
00:30:12,400 --> 00:30:15,040
Speaker 1: I don't know yet. So I guess you look at

647
00:30:15,040 --> 00:30:18,160
Speaker 1: these through both through both lenses.

648
00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:20,480
Speaker 3: Of the of the crystal ball. I suppose as you

649
00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:22,280
Speaker 3: try and predict them going for Jim.

650
00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:26,040
Speaker 2: And Byu, I think we've kind of heard inklings that

651
00:30:26,080 --> 00:30:29,560
Speaker 2: their staff knows the value of winning by a ton

652
00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:33,040
Speaker 2: and amping up those those metrics and looking better in

653
00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:34,920
Speaker 2: the net all the way down the road, like the

654
00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:37,920
Speaker 2: implications that I think that's why they win by fifty

655
00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:41,440
Speaker 2: seven over Houston Christian and fifty seven over Southeast Louisiana

656
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:44,040
Speaker 2: instead of forty, Like there's just a little bit in

657
00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:46,600
Speaker 2: there where the efficiency margin matters in the net stuff.

658
00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:49,280
Speaker 2: But I love the BYU coming into the year.

659
00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:49,520
Speaker 4: Kay.

660
00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:51,480
Speaker 2: I don't know if they're top fifteen good where Ken

661
00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:53,760
Speaker 2: Tom has them slotted right now, but I think they're

662
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:55,360
Speaker 2: going to continue to be a force to be reckoned

663
00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:59,160
Speaker 2: with that they've got starting on Thanksgiving. The the Veguus

664
00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:02,040
Speaker 2: showcase that they're in when they take on Arizona State

665
00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:04,960
Speaker 2: first and then I think they continue to roll through

666
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:07,080
Speaker 2: that event. Dandy and NC State on the other side,

667
00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:10,719
Speaker 2: I think that's a BYU two and oh likely two

668
00:31:10,760 --> 00:31:11,840
Speaker 2: and oh against the spread.

669
00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:14,959
Speaker 4: I agree, love it all right. We're finishing up with

670
00:31:15,040 --> 00:31:17,520
Speaker 4: the bad teams against the spread, the oh to five

671
00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:20,680
Speaker 4: slugs and oh no, all of our Alma monitors are

672
00:31:20,680 --> 00:31:21,280
Speaker 4: on this list.

673
00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:24,200
Speaker 2: Oh God, the scene. How's that possible?

674
00:31:24,560 --> 00:31:26,760
Speaker 4: Matt went to Indiana and as I said, Jem and

675
00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:29,440
Speaker 4: I went to Miszoo. They are both on and five

676
00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:32,560
Speaker 4: against the spread against the closing number that is Indiana

677
00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:35,720
Speaker 4: sporting a minus eight cover margin, Miszoo a minus nine

678
00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:38,959
Speaker 4: and a half cover margin, not great, Bob. And then

679
00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:42,760
Speaker 4: Georgia Southern also on five against the spread. Now they

680
00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:44,840
Speaker 4: did cover a certain number if you got a better

681
00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:47,360
Speaker 4: line the other day, but they also have a minus

682
00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:50,479
Speaker 4: eight cover margin, not good. And then Charleston one to

683
00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:52,840
Speaker 4: five with a minus ten cover margin, a team that

684
00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 4: has been shooting just awful so far this season, and

685
00:31:56,800 --> 00:31:58,920
Speaker 4: they kind of live or die by the three. So

686
00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:02,080
Speaker 4: if you're not making shots, you're dying if you're Charleston,

687
00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:04,400
Speaker 4: and they have thus far. So Jim your thoughts on

688
00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:05,480
Speaker 4: this scroup here.

689
00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:08,280
Speaker 2: Well, Kay, I might be a unicorn because I've won

690
00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:11,120
Speaker 2: a bet on two of these teams, right, which is insane.

691
00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:13,880
Speaker 2: I had a Mizze line value minus one and a

692
00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:16,560
Speaker 2: half at Minnesota and they won by two. And then

693
00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:19,840
Speaker 2: I had a Charleston decent line price against Coastal Carolina

694
00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:22,320
Speaker 2: where that line moved like four points, so it crossed

695
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 2: over a bunch of numbers and landed right in the middle.

696
00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:27,560
Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean, I want to focus mat on

697
00:32:27,600 --> 00:32:30,080
Speaker 2: our two Alma maters. I think they both have serious,

698
00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:33,560
Speaker 2: serious issues. Indiana might not be a top one hundred team.

699
00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:36,800
Speaker 2: Their offense is horrific. They have no shooting, and if

700
00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:38,640
Speaker 2: you're going to have no shooting, you've got to have

701
00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:42,000
Speaker 2: really engaged big men that are locked in and dominating

702
00:32:42,080 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 2: at all times. And Indiana's are loafers, Like they are

703
00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:49,040
Speaker 2: not really guys that are constantly engaged in making place

704
00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:51,040
Speaker 2: for you on both ends like TJD did for him

705
00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:54,760
Speaker 2: last year. And man Missouri, like I said, they just

706
00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:57,080
Speaker 2: don't know who's good on their team right now. They're

707
00:32:57,080 --> 00:32:59,560
Speaker 2: trying to figure out what the right lineup combinations are

708
00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:03,200
Speaker 2: and it hasn't been pretty thus far. And I fear

709
00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:04,760
Speaker 2: what's going to happen to them when they go to

710
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:06,240
Speaker 2: fog allenfield House.

711
00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:09,680
Speaker 3: Oh it's yeah, indian as a bad team. I yeah,

712
00:33:09,720 --> 00:33:11,840
Speaker 3: I don't have anything else to that. It's funny because

713
00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:13,680
Speaker 3: like the offense is horrible, Like the defense is what

714
00:33:13,760 --> 00:33:15,360
Speaker 3: was supposed to be the backbone of this team, and

715
00:33:15,400 --> 00:33:17,560
Speaker 3: they do guard at times, but then they do some

716
00:33:17,600 --> 00:33:21,920
Speaker 3: really stupid, intellectually just awful things that doesn't give them

717
00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:24,720
Speaker 3: any sort of foundation to build upon. So there's gonna

718
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:26,480
Speaker 3: be bright spots for you. I think, like link renew

719
00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:28,760
Speaker 3: is getting into Ukon. But yeah, there's caution marks here.

720
00:33:29,640 --> 00:33:31,400
Speaker 3: I also worried about just kind of the chemistry, just

721
00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:32,680
Speaker 3: to be honest, as I just kind of see some

722
00:33:32,720 --> 00:33:35,800
Speaker 3: of the body language out there. Kayie talked to this

723
00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:38,280
Speaker 3: like talking talking shit to Army was kind of a

724
00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:41,360
Speaker 3: lame look, Like not only is it like no know

725
00:33:41,400 --> 00:33:43,560
Speaker 3: who you're playing against, like in terms of competition, but

726
00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:47,120
Speaker 3: like just like of all people that's like the future

727
00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:50,280
Speaker 3: leaders of our military, Like maybe maybe don't talk shit

728
00:33:50,360 --> 00:33:53,880
Speaker 3: to Tarmy as a thirty point there. Anyway, I digress.

729
00:33:54,440 --> 00:33:56,760
Speaker 3: Charleston's interesting. I think they'll be better late. I just

730
00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:58,960
Speaker 3: think there's a lot of a lot of new like

731
00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:01,320
Speaker 3: young year right, that was kind of the formula for

732
00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:05,560
Speaker 3: Kelsea's recipe last year was older, deeper bench. This year

733
00:34:05,560 --> 00:34:07,840
Speaker 3: that bench is like mostly freshmen. I think he's kind

734
00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:09,879
Speaker 3: of struggling to find out who to pick it, plug

735
00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:10,320
Speaker 3: and play.

736
00:34:10,200 --> 00:34:12,040
Speaker 2: There, Hi, this is prisoner of the moment take, but

737
00:34:12,080 --> 00:34:14,760
Speaker 2: you might agree with it. Is Mackenzie and Baco the

738
00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:17,000
Speaker 2: worst five star freshman you've ever seen?

739
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:22,040
Speaker 4: Well, I remember Skaal Obissier, but yes, uh he's one

740
00:34:22,040 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 4: of the worst. It's motor Man and I've never really

741
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:28,040
Speaker 4: been a big motor guy, like as a criticism, but

742
00:34:28,120 --> 00:34:30,920
Speaker 4: my gosh, he just stands straight up on defense. It's

743
00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:34,839
Speaker 4: pretty clear this team has a classic like blame each

744
00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:37,200
Speaker 4: other for plays that you made a mistake on, like

745
00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:39,520
Speaker 4: that sort of thing. They kind of have that vibe.

746
00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:40,960
Speaker 4: So I kind of agree with Matt with the chemistry

747
00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:41,879
Speaker 4: angle there.

748
00:34:42,520 --> 00:34:45,560
Speaker 2: I don't think Xavier Johnson as your veteran leader, the

749
00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:47,640
Speaker 2: guy who like had to lead pit because he had

750
00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:51,719
Speaker 2: clashes with teammates and he's like he's one of the

751
00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:54,640
Speaker 2: culprits for talking shit to army. I don't think he's

752
00:34:54,680 --> 00:34:56,719
Speaker 2: a real good tone setter, and that concerns me. For

753
00:34:56,800 --> 00:34:58,520
Speaker 2: a team besides him, that's pretty dark, you know.

754
00:34:58,960 --> 00:34:59,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, so keep thading.

755
00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:03,359
Speaker 4: Lastly, the worst cover margins of the country. So again,

756
00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:05,480
Speaker 4: these teams haven't played five games. They're doing really bad

757
00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:09,399
Speaker 4: against the spread. Dartmouth and minus eighteen cover margin, zero

758
00:35:09,400 --> 00:35:13,160
Speaker 4: to two, Grambling State minus seventeen cover margin and one

759
00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:15,320
Speaker 4: three and them Buffalo guys team he might want to

760
00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:17,319
Speaker 4: discuss a little bit here minus sixteen and a half

761
00:35:18,719 --> 00:35:21,759
Speaker 4: Matt talk about Buffalo, buddy, I.

762
00:35:21,680 --> 00:35:22,839
Speaker 1: Don't have a lot to say.

763
00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:25,239
Speaker 3: I think the fan forums have said all that need

764
00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:26,239
Speaker 3: to be said about this team.

765
00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:28,600
Speaker 2: It doesn't help tell the listeners what the fan forums

766
00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:28,959
Speaker 2: have said.

767
00:35:29,320 --> 00:35:31,680
Speaker 3: They think it's the worst defense they've seen in their

768
00:35:31,760 --> 00:35:34,560
Speaker 3: long tenure as Buffalo basketball fans. Now, they've had some

769
00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:37,479
Speaker 3: really strong years. I mean, it's a good program. Nate Oats,

770
00:35:37,520 --> 00:35:40,520
Speaker 3: Bobby Hurley. You know, even Jim Whitesell was not up

771
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:43,440
Speaker 3: to that standard, but he was field some competitive rosters,

772
00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:43,960
Speaker 3: for sure.

773
00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:45,319
Speaker 4: We've kind of.

774
00:35:45,239 --> 00:35:49,400
Speaker 3: Made fun at the former Jay Wright assistance, you know,

775
00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:53,520
Speaker 3: great coach retire. All of his former lieutenants have found

776
00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:54,880
Speaker 3: their way into head coaching thrones.

777
00:35:54,960 --> 00:35:55,680
Speaker 1: Most of them have.

778
00:35:55,719 --> 00:35:59,360
Speaker 3: Failed, I would say, And I think while it's so

779
00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:02,640
Speaker 3: so early impossible to make any sort of real discermination here,

780
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:05,840
Speaker 3: the early signs are not great for the run and

781
00:36:05,920 --> 00:36:07,239
Speaker 3: bowls up there in upstate New York.

782
00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:12,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, that team is bad. It's got nightmare outcome written

783
00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:14,480
Speaker 2: of Matt. You said in our internal group chat, you're

784
00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:17,000
Speaker 2: worried it has like a Tulsa kind of floor to it.

785
00:36:17,040 --> 00:36:20,680
Speaker 2: Where for the listeners, Tulsa went four and twenty four

786
00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:23,239
Speaker 2: against the spread last year. That is not straight up

787
00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:24,920
Speaker 2: against the spread four and twenty four. That is like

788
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:30,040
Speaker 2: impossible to do. Buffalo might just keep underperforming expectations. They're

789
00:36:30,040 --> 00:36:31,920
Speaker 2: already down to three hundred and twenty second in ken

790
00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:36,359
Speaker 2: pund That would be by far their worst finish in

791
00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:39,680
Speaker 2: a long long time on that website. I think this

792
00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:41,560
Speaker 2: is a kay of very much be careful what you

793
00:36:41,600 --> 00:36:43,759
Speaker 2: wish for. When the fans wanted White signe and they

794
00:36:43,760 --> 00:36:47,120
Speaker 2: bring in hal Covid, who just this looks like just

795
00:36:47,160 --> 00:36:49,160
Speaker 2: a complete toxic waste dump.

796
00:36:49,960 --> 00:36:54,160
Speaker 4: Yes, I totally agree. I would be fading Buffalo for

797
00:36:54,200 --> 00:36:57,640
Speaker 4: the foreseeable future. Dartmouth kind of a weird one. I

798
00:36:57,680 --> 00:37:00,319
Speaker 4: don't really believe they're that bad. They kind of got

799
00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:02,839
Speaker 4: blown out in their first game in Grambling State. They

800
00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:05,000
Speaker 4: might be that bad. I didn't see a lot of

801
00:37:05,040 --> 00:37:07,839
Speaker 4: fight from them thus far, but hey, it's early. These

802
00:37:07,880 --> 00:37:12,200
Speaker 4: are overreactions till we get a little bit bigger sample size.

803
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:14,000
Speaker 4: We've were seen two or three games of some of

804
00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:16,839
Speaker 4: these teams. That's what we do. We speculate here on

805
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:19,040
Speaker 4: the Big Bets on Campus podcast. And thank you out

806
00:37:19,040 --> 00:37:21,319
Speaker 4: there for joining us again. We're coming to you every

807
00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:24,959
Speaker 4: single week Wednesday morning, three man Weave Crew. So thanks

808
00:37:24,960 --> 00:37:27,560
Speaker 4: to bet MGM and we will see you next time.

809
00:37:27,640 --> 00:37:40,680
Speaker 4: Good luck on your bets.

810
00:37:41,800 --> 00:37:46,319
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

811
00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:49,120
Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

812
00:37:49,160 --> 00:37:52,280
Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler