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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Begin strong with jeffre You, Senior Strategy Seema Bny. Jeff you,

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Speaker 2: thank you so much for joining us. Let me go

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Speaker 2: right to the terriffs. Michael Brown in London has a

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Speaker 2: wonderful tweet out. So the US went from negligible tariffs

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Speaker 2: on China to ten percent, then twenty, then fifty four,

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Speaker 2: then one oh four, then one forty five, and now

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Speaker 2: we're back to thirty and ninety days. Jeff you, is

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Speaker 2: China advantaged by this round trip on tariffs?

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Speaker 3: Well, roundtrip and detailing how long? Right, I'll just highlight

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Speaker 3: simultaneously when that joints came out, China actually put out

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Speaker 3: a twenty thirty five white paper on security and resilience. Okay,

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Speaker 3: that round trip is going to last years and years

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Speaker 3: and years, or rather it's not a round trip at all,

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Speaker 3: so they're looking to perhaps get some dat in the

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Speaker 3: short term paper things over stability the target restructuring of

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Speaker 3: the economy and the medium to longer term. So in

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Speaker 3: terms of long term strategy for Beijing, this doesn't change

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Speaker 3: a thing.

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Speaker 2: And for the export numbers, I'm going to say forty

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Speaker 2: eight hours ago showing buoyant exports out of China to

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Speaker 2: other nations. This delay in the trade war, this round

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Speaker 2: trip by President Trump, doesn't it give a more time

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Speaker 2: to organize and disperse their supply chains to other nations.

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Speaker 3: And one hour ago, I believe China's just signed deals

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Speaker 3: with Lula detailing billions and billions of investment into Brazil

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Speaker 3: and vice versa. And you think about agricultural supply chains potential.

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Speaker 3: So South America is a very large market for Chinese

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Speaker 3: evs for example. All of that is taking place in

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Speaker 3: the background, and let's look at how chum weather. China

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Speaker 3: reaches some form of agreement with Europe on evs as well,

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Speaker 3: you know that's going to be a big one. So

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Speaker 3: Beijing's not done in terms of its broader focus on

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Speaker 3: diversification that also need to restructure its own economy as

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Speaker 3: well in favor of domestic demand.

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Speaker 4: Whereas from the US.

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Speaker 3: Side, hopefully that it's a short term blip, and we'll

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Speaker 3: need to see whether it can continue US exceptionalism, because

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Speaker 3: that's in the mind of all investors right now.

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Speaker 5: So, Jeffrey, we're seeing a rally in the Bloomberg Dollar

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Speaker 5: Index here. How do you think about the US dollar here?

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Speaker 3: Well, a lot will depend on the FED and also

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Speaker 3: you know how the economies pursued in terms of growth,

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Speaker 3: right I look at dollar Asia because that's where the

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Speaker 3: volatility has been right now, and there's this view that, oh, well,

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Speaker 3: their Asian currencies need to appreciate up ahead that that

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Speaker 3: to Tom's favorite theme, Yes, appreciate, But in real terms,

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Speaker 3: how do we square the circle here? Well, that means

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Speaker 3: fiscal stimulus across Asia. That can afford it to boost

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Speaker 3: our own economies, to boost the domestic site, bring inflation

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Speaker 3: up in Asia, and I think that will help paper

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Speaker 3: global growth over and for the US. I don't see

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Speaker 3: that as a bad thing either. It's the rebalancing process

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Speaker 3: and perhaps the exceptionalism can continue with a softer dollar

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Speaker 3: to stimulate the US economy.

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Speaker 2: And Paul brilliant to bring up the Bloomberg Dollar Index, folks,

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Speaker 2: this is a more emerging market. Adding in China index

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Speaker 2: off of dxy the symbol and for those of you

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Speaker 2: with a terminal in your car nationwide dbdxy. Paul, we've moved.

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Speaker 2: It's an elegant chart. Yep. I did it log rhythmic

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Speaker 2: because Jeff us with us and we're out two point

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Speaker 2: six standard deviations up, so's it's not like a fiery

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Speaker 2: rally in the dollar. But it's a legitimate move.

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Speaker 5: Jeffrey, when you see the risk assets. Let's just take

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Speaker 5: the US equity markets here rallying three four percent here today.

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Speaker 2: What does that tell you?

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Speaker 3: I think that tells you and that people are viewing

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Speaker 3: this stability as being prioritized by this administration, and the

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Speaker 3: stability is being prioritized by all administrations and globally ultimately

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Speaker 3: this uh, this loosens financial conditions and it's good for

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Speaker 3: risk appetite, so you know, no one really wants to

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Speaker 3: rock the boat. And that is back in the pricing here.

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Speaker 3: But up ahead, I think let's just see you know

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Speaker 3: where US growth, how US growth is going to consolidate,

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Speaker 3: and I think this will hinge on the FED. And

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Speaker 3: I think again, you know, this is where the domestic

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Speaker 3: side of the US inflation, the labor market that's going

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Speaker 3: to matter a lot more.

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Speaker 2: Is it so cool that we have Jeffrey You and

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Speaker 2: Jordan Rochester back to back. Let's continue with jeffre you

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Speaker 2: a little bit more.

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Speaker 5: Hey, Jeffrey, you know we had stories just as recently

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Speaker 5: as a week ago of ships coming from China turning

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Speaker 5: around and going back to China, not coming to the

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Speaker 5: port of Los Angeles.

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Speaker 2: How do we think about that? That's the key question?

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Speaker 5: Yes, exactly where are ships going now?

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Speaker 2: Where a Hawai stecked up like Newark exactly?

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Speaker 3: So, so what I would focus on right now? And

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Speaker 3: I know the commerce departments very focused on transshipments, but

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Speaker 3: are we seeing a pickup in Chinese ship and the

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Speaker 3: likes of Malaysia, Singapore, Southeast how those deals have progress?

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Speaker 3: And then are you going to see a corresponding pickup

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Speaker 3: in exports you know from these regions are to the

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Speaker 3: US as well. But then let's see how much volume

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Speaker 3: clears customs in the US from Asia in general? Is

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Speaker 3: that coming down? If not? And I don't think it

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Speaker 3: will come down that much because demand is going to

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Speaker 3: be in place. What's the weighted average pricing that matters

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Speaker 3: for the FED? Will that feed into inflation? So I

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Speaker 3: don't worry about supply, but there's still will be a

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Speaker 3: price issue and that's something that the FED will need

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Speaker 3: to look into when setting policy, and ultimately that's what

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Speaker 3: USXC markets will react to as well.

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Speaker 2: Jeff you've fooled the bonds, the currency, the commodity correlations

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Speaker 2: into the equity market. For our listeners seeing this relief rally,

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Speaker 2: is it all clear for Jeffrey? You in the stock.

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Speaker 3: Market, US exceptionalism means you buy stocks, you buy US stocks,

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Speaker 3: you buy US bonds, and you buy the dollar. We

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Speaker 3: think that the only thing which may decorrelate slightly or

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Speaker 3: not just be as full on is on the dollar

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Speaker 3: side to compensate for maybe a little bit more risk

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Speaker 3: premia due to the recent uncertainty is a softer dollar.

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Speaker 3: But again, this shouldn't be seen as a bad thing. A.

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Speaker 3: It's something that the Trump administration, perhaps on and off,

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Speaker 3: has been talking about. But b what if US companies

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Speaker 3: become exporters as well, then you can benefit from that

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Speaker 3: FX earnings translation that Europe, Switzerland, you know, Japan and

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Speaker 3: even China Asia they always look for so that correlationship

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Speaker 3: is perhaps taking place, But don't read it as a

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Speaker 3: negative for US exceptionalism, at least not yet. Let's say

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Speaker 3: if US companies can adapt.

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Speaker 2: This round tripidness. Here's Lula of Brazil Folcus. This is

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Speaker 2: a Bloomberg headline. Brazil's Lula says can't understand Donald Trump's

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Speaker 2: tariffs and not making that up. That's the actual headline. Jeffrey,

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Speaker 2: You heads are spinning over this modern neo mercantilist policy.

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Speaker 2: What's the outcome that you see a complete capitulation by

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Speaker 2: President Trump?

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Speaker 3: I would say, you know, Beijing in the US ultimately

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Speaker 3: the world view that free trade or rather so any

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Speaker 3: unwinding of trade decoupling as both sides and Treasury secreted.

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Speaker 3: Beston has stated, there's no win in this right, so

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Speaker 3: it's les Lee's for all. So there is a vested interest,

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Speaker 3: or rather there is an interest for the global economy.

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Speaker 3: Beijing has said this for stability, so that is something

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Speaker 3: I think that both sides are now very focused on.

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Speaker 3: But over the medium to longer term for the US

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Speaker 3: and for China, restructuring is needed. And for Europe, look

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Speaker 3: at how much Europe has rallied this year on account

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Speaker 3: of Germany focused more on domestic demand. That is healthy,

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Speaker 3: and that's something Bessent has highlighted, and there's absolutely correct

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Speaker 3: in this right. Restructuring in favor of domestic demand matters

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Speaker 3: for the exporters in China, in Japan, in Europe, and

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Speaker 3: the hope is from markets that they continue along that.

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Speaker 3: So as an exit investor, you focus on the domestic

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Speaker 3: elements in Europe and in Asia which have been underpriced

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Speaker 3: for so long.

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Speaker 2: Jeff, for you, thank you for getting a started, senior

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Speaker 2: strategist be and why I greatly appreciate that.

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Speaker 2: Else correlating beautifully and publishing on LinkedIn. This morning, Paul,

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Speaker 2: why don't you bring in mister Rochester here at Missouo.

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Speaker 5: Jordan Rochester he is head of fixed income, credit and

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Speaker 5: Commodities macro strategy at miszou Ho Jordan. We wake up

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Speaker 5: to the news this morning that the US and China

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Speaker 5: will temporarily lower teriffs on each other's products, and the

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Speaker 5: news Jordan is the US reduced its levites from one

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Speaker 5: hundred and forty five percent to thirty percent, in China

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Speaker 5: will reduce its duties from one hundred and twenty five

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Speaker 5: percent to ten percent. Is it back to business as

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Speaker 5: usual Jordan.

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Speaker 4: It's back to business like it was in March.

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Speaker 6: So the effective time for right, if you take all

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Speaker 6: of this sort of exemptions, has gone from one hundred

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Speaker 6: and eight on you on Chinese exports to US, so

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Speaker 6: about twenty seven if you take it all in.

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Speaker 4: So that's why we were in March.

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Speaker 6: We were lower than that, of course before Donald Trump

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Speaker 6: took it to the White House, so there could be

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Speaker 6: a bit more to go. There's a few caveats as well.

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Speaker 6: This is a ninety day reprieve. Things could escalate flower

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Speaker 6: down the line. But in the sort of press conference

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Speaker 6: with Scott Best earlier, what was quite clear was the

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Speaker 6: hurdle to extending beyond ninety days is quite low.

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Speaker 4: It was just as long as talks remained constructive.

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Speaker 6: So it's quite clear that Scott Bessett leaned the charge

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Speaker 6: on this in Switzerland that there is a move by

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Speaker 6: the US to get rid of what was a de

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Speaker 6: facto trade tariff embargo, a trade tariff wall. It was

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Speaker 6: such a high tariff that business was freezing up, and

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Speaker 6: as the previous speaker was talking about, lots of trade

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Speaker 6: shipments were being re routed and Chinese exporters were considering

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Speaker 6: ways of paying for the tariffs at lower prices.

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Speaker 4: Than what they possibly are.

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Speaker 6: So there's all these sorts of complex parts of international

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Speaker 6: trade that the sort of cogs were being put into motion.

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Speaker 6: Now they don't need to be at the same level

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Speaker 6: because we are now down to the tariff rates that

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Speaker 6: I think US firms can swallow.

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Speaker 5: So what's next to you? If you're in the C suite,

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Speaker 5: you're CEO, your CFO, you're purchasing manager. How do you

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Speaker 5: navigate here? Do you think I mean, I mean much

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Speaker 5: less being an investor here? If you're just an executive

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Speaker 5: trying to run your business.

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Speaker 6: Well before Liberation Day, it was quite clear what a

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Speaker 6: lot of firms had been doing was that China might

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Speaker 6: have been the original creator of an item, but it

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Speaker 6: was being shipped to a third country and final construction

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Speaker 6: of that product was being made in Vietnam or elsewhere,

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Speaker 6: and then ships to the US at lower tariff rates

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Speaker 6: than what was previously applied upon China. What changed on

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Speaker 6: Liberation days everybody got this ten percent tariff, so it

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Speaker 6: becomes a lot less effective to do so, even for

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Speaker 6: countries with free trade agreements that there's a ten percent tariff,

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Speaker 6: and then there was the extra kicker there was a

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Speaker 6: higher rates of reciprocal on top of that, and countries

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Speaker 6: like Vietnam and others who had been part of this

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Speaker 6: China needs rerouting system face a much larger tariff. So

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Speaker 6: if you're in a C suite right now, you're thinking, well,

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Speaker 6: I can't.

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Speaker 4: It's hard for me to avoid tariffs.

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Speaker 6: It's more about going with the importer of choice that

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Speaker 6: can help your supply chain in the first place, but

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Speaker 6: also bringing it back to the US. I think this

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Speaker 6: is a key part of the administration's focus. If it

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Speaker 6: can be produced in the US for a similar economic cost,

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Speaker 6: it will be sorgan.

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Speaker 2: Have you the terrific Massouu team not only in Tokyo

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Speaker 2: but in London and worldwide. Have you and Dominic constant

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Speaker 2: sever shootout, have you come up with an optimum terraff

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Speaker 2: statistic something less than ten percent back towards a blended

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Speaker 2: three percent level. We were at. Is there a tip

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Speaker 2: point where we get an optimum tariff?

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Speaker 6: I think getting down to three or four percent like

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Speaker 6: it was is pretty much impossible with this administration. But

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Speaker 6: the level to consider the number is that the effective

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Speaker 6: tariff rate that the sort of cell side consensus amongst

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Speaker 6: banks were expecting on Liberation Day was roughly between twelve

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Speaker 6: and a half to seventeen and a half.

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Speaker 4: So let's call it fifteen in the middle we get

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Speaker 4: If we get an.

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Speaker 6: Effective tariffreight back down to fifteen percent, this market will

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Speaker 6: handle it pretty well because we went into Liberation Day

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Speaker 6: with the stock market down three or four percent year today,

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Speaker 6: but nothing too crazy, and most self side analysts were

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Speaker 6: expecting stock market to rally into year end. So if

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Speaker 6: we get that number, Tom, that's the crucial tipping point,

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Speaker 6: and the moves from China today really do get us

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Speaker 6: closer to that bol As.

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Speaker 2: An economist, where's your tip point? In the second vesper? Yes?

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Speaker 2: What percent?

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Speaker 4: What?

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Speaker 2: Seriously? What percent tariff? Would you say? I don't care

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Speaker 2: about the tariff. I need a second vestment.

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Speaker 5: I need a second vestment. I don't I have a

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Speaker 5: trade deficit with Italy right now? Buying my vest of

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Speaker 5: four thousand dollars. I think, Jordan, what do we do

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Speaker 5: here in the marketplace?

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Speaker 7: Here?

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Speaker 5: How much risk this morning are you suggesting your client

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Speaker 5: to take here.

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Speaker 6: In a big way, We've got a use the recent narrative,

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Speaker 6: which is the sell America theme, which I never truly

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Speaker 6: believed in as a theme.

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Speaker 4: It was mostly a positioning point of view.

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Speaker 6: It was an unhedged dollar exposure that needed to be hedged. Well,

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Speaker 6: now it's been hedged, and the reasons for hedging it

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Speaker 6: have really really fallen down if you think about it.

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Speaker 6: And so a lot of the euro dollar buying we

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Speaker 6: saw will not be fully unwound. But you're not gonna

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Speaker 6: have the same pace of buying the same with the

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Speaker 6: yen as well. So I think the dollar's going to

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Speaker 6: rebound here because you've got essentially a lot of people

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Speaker 6: who've positioned for continued dollar weakness, but forgetting that this

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Speaker 6: is a market that has about three or four different

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Speaker 6: narratives per year, and we're currently now going into a

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Speaker 6: reversal of tariff tensions, and that will lead to dollar strength.

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Speaker 4: On the back of it.

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Speaker 2: Euro on one ten, it's under a one eleven ninety eight.

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Speaker 2: I can't imagine if you formulated a new euro call,

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Speaker 2: Jordan Rochester, can you get back to a one oh

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Speaker 2: five or Dare I say we need a parody call

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Speaker 2: in May?

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Speaker 6: No, we're not going to those levels, So we have

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Speaker 6: to split it into short term versus long term. Short

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Speaker 6: term I talk about dollar strength there. That's kind of

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Speaker 6: what needs to happen. The market's very short the dollars. However,

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Speaker 6: longer term, I actually think your dollar gets to one

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Speaker 6: twenty by year ends rather than the sort of one

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Speaker 6: five level, which is what rate spreads currently would suggest.

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Speaker 6: We've had this real problem in FX where rates are

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Speaker 6: saying the euro should be weaker than what it is.

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Speaker 6: But anyway, I digress one twenty by year end. Why

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Speaker 6: it's because of this German fiscal story, EU joint issuance

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Speaker 6: is possible and also EU reform. So we're going to

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Speaker 6: see an expansion of European growth potential later this year,

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Speaker 6: and that'll keep the idea of one twenty alive in you.

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Speaker 2: I got to squeeze, so we're going to stop the

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Speaker 2: show for Jordan Rochester. Are you suggesting with joint issuance

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Speaker 2: that we finally get a coordinated fiscal policy out of Brussels.

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Speaker 6: We've already had joint issuance before during the COVID pandemic,

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Speaker 6: and so do we a crisis that triggers them to

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Speaker 6: move again. The trade tensions were causing that crisis. I

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Speaker 6: know things have come down in recent weeks, so therefore

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Speaker 6: it doesn't feel as urgent as before. But the EU

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Speaker 6: is looking at the US as a less trusted ally

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Speaker 6: and that's going to lead to them thinking we need

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Speaker 6: to boost our defense spending. That there's a summit on

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Speaker 6: that in June and that will be the outcome of that.

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Speaker 6: But for the other things, such as EU reform, that's

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Speaker 6: going to be much more harder and longer to do.

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Speaker 6: But you do have us Lavon Delaine and other EU commissioners.

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Speaker 4: Pushing for it.

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Speaker 6: So answer your question, I think joint commission has dropped

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Speaker 6: US a probability in the past two weeks, but it

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Speaker 6: still remains on the cards for me.

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Speaker 2: Jordan Wrchester, thank you so much.

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Speaker 1: With Missia, you're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern

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Speaker 1: Listen on Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business

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Speaker 1: app or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: We're going to rip up the script right now. We

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Speaker 2: can do that with Lori kelvisin incredibly gifted and I

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Speaker 2: want to playoff Doug cass a smart note today, which

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Speaker 2: is I'm paraphrasing mister cass effective Immediately, the Tarorff thing

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Speaker 2: is sort of pushed aside, whatever the end outcome is,

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Speaker 2: and all of a sudden, the stock market is beholden

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Speaker 2: to the bond market and the debate over fiscal the

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Speaker 2: debate over the tax bill. Cass trying to move into

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Speaker 2: the summer of twenty five like the dreaded New York

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Speaker 2: Yankees are moving into the summer of twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 2: What do high yields do to the Lori kelvisina space, Well,

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Speaker 2: looking just.

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Speaker 7: Like higher treasury yields generally, I mean, you know, it

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Speaker 7: depresses valuation multiples. I mean that's what we tend to see.

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Speaker 7: And I would also point out though that when I've

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Speaker 7: done my back testing and my modeling, I'll nerd out

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Speaker 7: on you for a minute, we actually find the inflation

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Speaker 7: rate is a little bit more sensitive with pees if

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Speaker 7: you go all the way back to the sixties, as

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Speaker 7: opposed to bond yields, So the bond yields matter. But

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Speaker 7: I I don't think we're totally done with this tariff

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Speaker 7: moment and the inflationary impacts. I would like very much

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Speaker 7: to get out of this tariff moment. But I don't

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Speaker 7: know if I quite agree with mister Cass that we're

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Speaker 7: totally done.

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Speaker 2: Oh okay, well I'm paraphrasing, and Doug, maybe will you

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Speaker 2: know call up and say time you're wrong. I didn't

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Speaker 2: say we're totally done. The chaos folks this morning is crazy.

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Speaker 2: What will people do in the mid cap, small cap

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Speaker 2: small business space. They're not Apple. Their heads have to

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Speaker 2: be absolutely spinning.

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Speaker 8: Yeah.

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Speaker 7: So look, I would say, as you think about the

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Speaker 7: size of businesses, right, I think the bigger the better

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Speaker 7: in terms of your ability to navigate whatever problem, whatever

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Speaker 7: headwind is out there for margins. And so while we've

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Speaker 7: dialed down the China tariffs this morning, at least temporarily,

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Speaker 7: we're still in a worse place than we were a

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Speaker 7: couple of months ago, right, And so there are still

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Speaker 7: things that have to be navigated and dealt with, and

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Speaker 7: I do think small and mid cap companies have less

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Speaker 7: of an ability to do that than the bigger cap companies,

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Speaker 7: and you know, we are mostly done with S and

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Speaker 7: P reporting season.

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Speaker 8: We've still got a lot of smid companies yet to report.

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Speaker 7: So I'm sure we're going to get an earful about

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Speaker 7: this issue and we'll find out whether I'm right or

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Speaker 7: wrong on that, But that is my general rule of thumb.

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Speaker 7: That being said, small cap futures are up like five

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Speaker 7: percent last I checked, so the markets are clearly celebrating

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Speaker 7: in here. But that would be kind of the one

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Speaker 7: word of caution I'd throw out at you.

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Speaker 5: So, how has your investment out looked for equities changed

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Speaker 5: this morning, if at all?

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Speaker 7: You know, it's it's interesting. You know, I was watching

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Speaker 7: everything last night. The best Mother's Day gift, I guess

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Speaker 7: was that we got the news at night, not in

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Speaker 7: the middle of the day, so we you know, all

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Speaker 7: the moms could enjoy the day. But look, I think

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Speaker 7: that we have known that there was a tension in

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Speaker 7: the modeling right now, right so I look at a

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Speaker 7: bunch of stuff, and I can give you like six

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Speaker 7: or seven different things that said we had hit maximum pain.

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Speaker 8: One of those was the rate.

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Speaker 7: Of upward revisions, which hit twenty eight percent for both

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Speaker 7: small and large cap a few weeks ago, and when

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Speaker 7: we updated that at the end of the last week,

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Speaker 7: small cap provisions were up to forty percent to the upside,

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Speaker 7: and large caps move up to like thirty.

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Speaker 8: Four to thirty five percent.

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Speaker 7: So anyway, we've seen like these various stress indicators that

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Speaker 7: are healing, but we also know that there's some uncertainty

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Speaker 7: and there's some you know, there's some headwinds out there

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Speaker 7: right from all the disruption that we've had, and that's

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Speaker 7: not just trade and tariff disruption. That's the news we

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Speaker 7: got out of healthcare this morning, right, that's the news

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Speaker 7: we got about dose. If you look at the Challenger data,

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Speaker 7: the Doge layoffs are consistent with what we see in recessions.

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Speaker 7: So we've still got a lot of that stuff to

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Speaker 7: sort through. I will tell you the cinnamon indicators, bullish

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Speaker 7: economic indicators less so that tension. You know, the bulls

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Speaker 7: went out on the day, but that doesn't mean the

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Speaker 7: sort of you know, headwinds on the econ side have disappeared.

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Speaker 5: How about on earnings, We saw earnings estimates come down

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Speaker 5: maybe reflecting some of the trade conditions. Does that suggest

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Speaker 5: maybe we can get a little bit of lift in

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Speaker 5: earnings now because maybe things are a little bit less bad.

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Speaker 7: I think it's not clear to me we're we're gonna

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Speaker 7: be back to upward revisions anytime soon unless we just

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Speaker 7: make these tariffs go away. And that's not what happened

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Speaker 7: this morning, right, Companies, especially on the industrial side, saying mitigate, mitigate, mitigate, price,

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Speaker 7: price price a just footprint as footprint. Okay, fine, So

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Speaker 7: a lot of these companies right are coming out and

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Speaker 7: saying we're going to offset this. A lot are also

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Speaker 7: saying we're only giving quarterly guidance now, right, So that

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Speaker 7: tells you about the conviction level and that call. I

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Speaker 7: went back and looked at twenty eighteen recently, and you

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Speaker 7: actually didn't see, you know, too much movement in those

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Speaker 7: earnings forecasts in the second half of the year. But

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Speaker 7: we still got a lot of cautions commentary in September

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Speaker 7: October that year. I think earnings, you know, big cap

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Speaker 7: companies find a way to make it work. But that

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Speaker 7: doesn't mean the rhetoric is going to be great.

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Speaker 2: We continue with Lori Kelvicina in your commute acrass Nation.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, particularly out in Los Angeles. Jeans Roca of

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Speaker 2: the Los Angeles Port Authority schedule to be with this Thursday.

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Speaker 2: It'll be a timely conversation, Laurie. I just brought up

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Speaker 2: a chart from one hundred thousand feet like almost up,

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Speaker 2: Like if should I go up in the Bezos spaceship? Oh,

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Speaker 2: they send up an entire group me bill Ni, bill n,

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Speaker 2: I could lead it. Everybody on the spaceship would have

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Speaker 2: a bow tye on. Can you see it? I can

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Speaker 2: see envision that. Okay, I mean one hundred thousand feet.

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Speaker 2: I got a quarterly Dow Jones industrial laverage chart. It's

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Speaker 2: as vanilla as you can get, and even quarterly with

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Speaker 2: a pullback. We really are still in a bull market?

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Speaker 2: Are we still in a bull market?

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Speaker 9: Well?

438
00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:17,959
Speaker 7: Look what we and I try not to get, you know,

439
00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:19,760
Speaker 7: stuck in those labels, but I'll tell you what we

440
00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:21,639
Speaker 7: did on the April eighth lows, and we looked more

441
00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:22,960
Speaker 7: at the S and P. But we priced in a

442
00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:25,000
Speaker 7: growth scare. We priced in a near miss. We never

443
00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:27,000
Speaker 7: priced in a recession, and I think that was the

444
00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:29,840
Speaker 7: appropriate thing to do based on the information at hand.

445
00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:31,600
Speaker 8: The recession risks feel like.

446
00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:34,320
Speaker 7: They're dialing down, but they're still elevated versus where they were,

447
00:21:34,359 --> 00:21:36,280
Speaker 7: So we do have to be vigilant. If you get

448
00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:38,359
Speaker 7: a recession, you're going to break through those lows and

449
00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:40,160
Speaker 7: probably go to something like forty two to forty five

450
00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:42,520
Speaker 7: hundred on the SMP. I feel like, you know, we

451
00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:45,399
Speaker 7: reduced that risk this morning, but we still have to

452
00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:47,520
Speaker 7: be vigilant because we have had a lot of stuff

453
00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:49,200
Speaker 7: thrown at this economy in recent months.

454
00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:52,359
Speaker 5: Yeah, so I'm wondering here, Lori. Again, it feels a

455
00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:54,480
Speaker 5: little bit better today. The market's telling us that today

456
00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:56,800
Speaker 5: with a big lift in the futures, what are some

457
00:21:56,840 --> 00:22:02,240
Speaker 5: of the sectors that today kind of.

458
00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:04,000
Speaker 7: So, I would say thinking very short term and more

459
00:22:04,040 --> 00:22:05,639
Speaker 7: tactically than I tend to do normally.

460
00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:06,879
Speaker 8: We look six to twelve months.

461
00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:08,480
Speaker 7: But if you if you just look at what's been

462
00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:12,520
Speaker 7: positively correlated in terms of sector performance with Trump's favorability

463
00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:15,159
Speaker 7: in the polls. We look at net favorability. We actually

464
00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:17,200
Speaker 7: just published a study on this this morning. It tends

465
00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:20,600
Speaker 7: to be the big growth sectors tech, consumer, discretionary, calm services.

466
00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:24,520
Speaker 7: And I think that's because this tariff angst caused a

467
00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:27,480
Speaker 7: rotation out of the US, right, those are the biggest weights.

468
00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:30,040
Speaker 7: But also look at the financials. That's another Trump trade

469
00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:32,240
Speaker 7: that's emerged. And if you dig down under the service,

470
00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:35,640
Speaker 7: a lot of tech industries have been very positively correlated

471
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:40,840
Speaker 7: with Trump's positioning in the polls. But also things like apparel, autos, airlines,

472
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:42,560
Speaker 7: you know, which are a big macro bed at this

473
00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:45,280
Speaker 7: point in time. So those are the things i'd watched today.

474
00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:48,840
Speaker 7: Stepping out more broadly, I still really really like financials

475
00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:50,840
Speaker 7: whatever's coming on our way. I think they have an

476
00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:51,639
Speaker 7: ability to manage.

477
00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:56,240
Speaker 2: Laurie Calvacina with us here. Okay, the financials, you're gonna

478
00:22:56,240 --> 00:23:00,639
Speaker 2: tell me, I'm supposed to look at what regionals, super regionals, lessons,

479
00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:04,400
Speaker 2: super regionals, some bank I don't know in Oklahoma, which

480
00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:06,359
Speaker 2: which which financials I like?

481
00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:08,600
Speaker 7: I like the regionals, thinking roughly kind of like the

482
00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:10,879
Speaker 7: Russell two thousand, you know, kind of regional banks.

483
00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:11,919
Speaker 8: I think you generally.

484
00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:14,280
Speaker 2: See me one example that to buy the.

485
00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:17,280
Speaker 8: Compliance gods will shoot me with a lightning.

486
00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:21,520
Speaker 2: That is, our compliance gods are tougher than years continue.

487
00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:22,720
Speaker 8: No, I've agreed.

488
00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:25,720
Speaker 7: I agreed never to say a stock on TV. That's okay,

489
00:23:25,720 --> 00:23:27,800
Speaker 7: But the but the you know, as I as I

490
00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:30,159
Speaker 7: do parse out the valuations, what we see very clearly

491
00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:32,600
Speaker 7: is across the Russell three thousand, your regional banks are

492
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:34,879
Speaker 7: giving you the best valuations. We look at that on

493
00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:37,400
Speaker 7: a median basis. So think of kind of smitty kind

494
00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:39,840
Speaker 7: of like your your bigger, you know, small caps, so

495
00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:42,359
Speaker 7: to speak, kind of some of the more kind of

496
00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:44,440
Speaker 7: well established ones, you know, kind of more tried and

497
00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:45,359
Speaker 7: true names on Wall.

498
00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:47,440
Speaker 8: Street, like that John Arthstrom would cover, for example.

499
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:50,760
Speaker 7: I do think the investment banks, which has been you know,

500
00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:53,399
Speaker 7: really kind of the the you know what everyone's loved

501
00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:55,520
Speaker 7: to love because of the M and A trade I

502
00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 7: would still maybe fade those relative to the regionals because

503
00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:00,600
Speaker 7: I just don't think you have the same value appeal

504
00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:02,440
Speaker 7: and I don't know that a ton of uncertainty was

505
00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:04,760
Speaker 7: alleviated this morning, and that's been the big thing, you know,

506
00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:06,840
Speaker 7: sort of holding back some of those transactions.

507
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:11,160
Speaker 5: I would think the news today about you know, declining

508
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:14,159
Speaker 5: trade tensions would be good for the consumer. How do

509
00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:16,840
Speaker 5: you think about the consumer, the consumer spending and maybe

510
00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:18,400
Speaker 5: how to play that in the equities.

511
00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:19,520
Speaker 8: So you know, I'll tell.

512
00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:21,800
Speaker 7: You the University of Michigan data is one that we

513
00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:25,080
Speaker 7: watch really really closely. I'm getting a little a little

514
00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:27,719
Speaker 7: tired of it. But post COVID, we've actually seen if

515
00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:29,600
Speaker 7: you look at stock prices year every year, they've been

516
00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:32,600
Speaker 7: very well correlated with that Michigan Sentiment index for both

517
00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:34,639
Speaker 7: small and large. We think we're in a sentiment driven market,

518
00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:36,920
Speaker 7: and that's, you know, frankly been better than the Conference

519
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:40,240
Speaker 7: Board data at explaining market moves. What I'm seeing in

520
00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:43,480
Speaker 7: that data though, is that you're already getting back to

521
00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:47,160
Speaker 7: recession type low. So we know everybody feels lousy as

522
00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:49,520
Speaker 7: a strategist when those prints come out. I don't make

523
00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:52,359
Speaker 7: forecasts on them, but you know, I've been telling people

524
00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:54,080
Speaker 7: part of why we want to own the financials is

525
00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:57,320
Speaker 7: they benefit when that indicator moves up. They outperform, and

526
00:24:57,359 --> 00:24:59,960
Speaker 7: it's so bad as a strategist. Even though we all

527
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:02,560
Speaker 7: feel lousy and we're kind of you know, push you know,

528
00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:03,480
Speaker 7: pushing back on some of.

529
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:05,960
Speaker 8: This trade stuff, you have to look for inflections.

530
00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:10,520
Speaker 2: Barons this weekend played up buffer funds with pro and concomments.

531
00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:12,440
Speaker 2: I don't want to get into do is of Borne

532
00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:14,840
Speaker 2: and Belchunis will explain this when he shows up, if

533
00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:18,080
Speaker 2: if he just shows up, but a buffer fund is

534
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:20,560
Speaker 2: basically I want to be in equities, but I'm scared

535
00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:24,080
Speaker 2: stiff and I need something less volatile. I'm translating, folks,

536
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:25,840
Speaker 2: don't you know. I'm not a pinata here for the

537
00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:31,000
Speaker 2: ETF business. Laura Calvisina, If the public is demanding buffer

538
00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:33,880
Speaker 2: funds because they're scared stiff, do you frame it as

539
00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:38,000
Speaker 2: a single digit future or can we get still addicted

540
00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:40,000
Speaker 2: to a double digit equity return?

541
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:43,480
Speaker 7: You know, I think that we have to see what

542
00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:47,160
Speaker 7: happens with the international investor and their affinity for US equities,

543
00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:51,159
Speaker 7: and we know that the economic policy backdrop is more

544
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:53,040
Speaker 7: uncertain than it was in the past. That tends to

545
00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:55,359
Speaker 7: be well correlated with pees as well. So I feel

546
00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:57,359
Speaker 7: like we're setting up for a period of less robust

547
00:25:57,440 --> 00:26:00,399
Speaker 7: returns because you know, the door to Europe has been opened,

548
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:03,000
Speaker 7: for example, and the policy environment is more volatile than

549
00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:04,639
Speaker 7: it's been in the past, and that's probably not going

550
00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:07,520
Speaker 7: to change entirely. So, you know, it's not to say

551
00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 7: equities can't do well, but I feel like we have

552
00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:11,480
Speaker 7: lost some of the tailwinds that we had in the past.

553
00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:14,680
Speaker 2: Sure, Mother's Day was perfect until four pm.

554
00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:18,240
Speaker 5: Yesterday exactly hopefully. I had a good Mother's Day, was

555
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:20,119
Speaker 5: a great beach day for those that were with me

556
00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:22,440
Speaker 5: on New Jersey. Sure, what do we do here? What's

557
00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:26,120
Speaker 5: the call with your RBC clients today?

558
00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 7: So look, I think it's enjoy the day. Let's get

559
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:32,199
Speaker 7: some more information. There are a bunch of big retailers

560
00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:33,800
Speaker 7: that are coming out in the next two weeks, and

561
00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:37,159
Speaker 7: ultimately they matter more than what I think about what

562
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:39,720
Speaker 7: just came out. So I think, you know, enjoy the day.

563
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:42,960
Speaker 7: We have not wanted people to be wholly defensively positioned.

564
00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:45,159
Speaker 7: We were not over weight health care. You know, some

565
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:47,840
Speaker 7: of our concerns in that sector are playing out, you know,

566
00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:50,320
Speaker 7: just the disruption risk. We keep seeing one thing after

567
00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 7: another coming at that sector. So I would stay balanced.

568
00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:55,960
Speaker 7: We still like the financials, We still like calm services,

569
00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:58,000
Speaker 7: and there was a moment right you know where it

570
00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:00,159
Speaker 7: looked like tariffs might hit that sector as well. All

571
00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:03,520
Speaker 7: that seems to have gone away, But I would say

572
00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:04,360
Speaker 7: stay balanced.

573
00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:06,080
Speaker 8: I would stick with higher quality stocks.

574
00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:08,920
Speaker 7: We are seeing that that's generally outperforming in the factor data.

575
00:27:10,080 --> 00:27:11,959
Speaker 7: And to the extent you want to be defensive, do

576
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:12,879
Speaker 7: it through utilities.

577
00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:16,800
Speaker 2: Laurie, thank you so much. Lorid Calvacina with us this morning.

578
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:23,080
Speaker 2: You really really appreciate that. With RBC Capital Marcus.

579
00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:26,679
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

580
00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:29,760
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Cocklay and Android

581
00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:32,800
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen

582
00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:36,160
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.

583
00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:39,359
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

584
00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:42,000
Speaker 2: You see how huvon Steinis walks in the studio and

585
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:42,840
Speaker 2: the market goes up?

586
00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:44,360
Speaker 5: Is he based in London or New York?

587
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:48,800
Speaker 2: First of all, huvhon Steenis joins us is just way

588
00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:51,119
Speaker 2: too much love from him over the last number of weeks.

589
00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:54,080
Speaker 2: Vice chaired Oliver Wyman. First of all, let me cut

590
00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:58,040
Speaker 2: to the chase. Will you join the Carnie cabinet in Canada.

591
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:00,679
Speaker 10: I'm not a Canadian system, so I don't I'll have

592
00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:02,920
Speaker 10: that honor, but I'm rooting for him.

593
00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:06,119
Speaker 2: It's amazing. Tell me about the clarity of thought and

594
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:10,200
Speaker 2: process of Mark Kearney as he takes on these challenges

595
00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:10,840
Speaker 2: for Canada.

596
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:13,240
Speaker 10: Well, Tom, you've met him. I mean certainly, I was

597
00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:15,280
Speaker 10: really honored to work for him for eighteen months. He's

598
00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:18,159
Speaker 10: got a cool head in a crisis. He's got a

599
00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:20,800
Speaker 10: really good strategic nows and do you know what, he

600
00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:22,840
Speaker 10: loves to do the detail, so he can really fire

601
00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:25,080
Speaker 10: it down. I have learned, and I think that's the

602
00:28:25,119 --> 00:28:26,960
Speaker 10: great thing he can challenge. And so you look, he

603
00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:28,840
Speaker 10: is at heart Remory did do thirteen years ago when

604
00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:31,639
Speaker 10: he has a financier at heart, but obviously now very

605
00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:34,239
Speaker 10: public spirited. So I think he's going to have a

606
00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:37,360
Speaker 10: really good finger on economics. So give you an example.

607
00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:39,920
Speaker 10: Seventy percent of potash you know I used for US

608
00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:43,160
Speaker 10: fertilizer comes from Canada. He knows that it's the detail

609
00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:44,920
Speaker 10: that actually will help in these negotiations.

610
00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:47,400
Speaker 2: So I will not mince words. Folks, Hu von Steins

611
00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:50,320
Speaker 2: and the Americans are going, who's the brid And the

612
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 2: answer is the gentleman at a shockingly young age owned

613
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:58,080
Speaker 2: the analysis of European finance and he's of course parlor

614
00:28:58,120 --> 00:29:02,000
Speaker 2: that over to Oliver Wyman. Now in an esteemed career,

615
00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:06,320
Speaker 2: you are more qualified than anyone to say, is the

616
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:12,200
Speaker 2: investment dream of Europe actually in place? Led by the Germans?

617
00:29:12,400 --> 00:29:14,400
Speaker 2: Can we actually look for a new Europe?

618
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:18,880
Speaker 10: It's a great question. I definitely see there is a

619
00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:22,400
Speaker 10: really good debate about whether Europe has got a renaissance

620
00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:27,560
Speaker 10: as an investment destination US investors have I gotta interrupt.

621
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:32,800
Speaker 2: Do you see the difference here? He sounds like he

622
00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:35,960
Speaker 2: sounds like a masterpiece theater thing I feel like with

623
00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:40,360
Speaker 2: Henry the As and Cromwell the rene help us here.

624
00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:47,080
Speaker 10: Renaissance of Europe as an investment destination. Take the Black

625
00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:50,880
Speaker 10: Croc data. US investors put seven times more money into

626
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:54,160
Speaker 10: European equities this year than last year in ETFs. But

627
00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:56,160
Speaker 10: the key thing to me is now that was the

628
00:29:56,520 --> 00:29:59,320
Speaker 10: tactical trade. What's the strategic trade? What do you think

629
00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:01,840
Speaker 10: out the day of to tomorrow? And I think the

630
00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:04,800
Speaker 10: big debate we're having with CIOs is actually is it

631
00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:08,520
Speaker 10: an equity opportunity or a credit opportunity? And to be honest,

632
00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:11,160
Speaker 10: sitting here today, I think the credit opportunity is clearer

633
00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:14,720
Speaker 10: to me because there's going to be hundreds of billions

634
00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:19,880
Speaker 10: of infrastructure and digital and defense to be spent. And

635
00:30:20,120 --> 00:30:23,040
Speaker 10: if Europe grows faster, that's fantastic, But they're going to

636
00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:25,840
Speaker 10: demand a huge amount of credit. The yield in European

637
00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:29,440
Speaker 10: credit is higher than US at the moment. And what's more,

638
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:32,880
Speaker 10: as we've discussed many times, the bank rules are still

639
00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:35,520
Speaker 10: really tight, and so actually it's not like the banks

640
00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:38,160
Speaker 10: have got tons of capital deployees. So as a credit investor,

641
00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:42,000
Speaker 10: that's a really interesting opportunity. But certainly that's certainly from

642
00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:42,920
Speaker 10: the CIOs i've met.

643
00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:45,560
Speaker 5: You woke up this morning, it seems like it's a

644
00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:47,720
Speaker 5: little bit more of a risk on environment relative to

645
00:30:47,720 --> 00:30:49,960
Speaker 5: where we've been over the last maybe four months. Here,

646
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:54,080
Speaker 5: how do you put our this tariff stuff into context

647
00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:56,320
Speaker 5: for your clients? I guess context matters here.

648
00:30:57,200 --> 00:31:00,640
Speaker 10: Look, I think everyone's got their own specific situation, and

649
00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:05,800
Speaker 10: I think particularly if you're a European or Asian regulated investor,

650
00:31:05,960 --> 00:31:08,840
Speaker 10: let's say a pension fund or an insurer, the FX

651
00:31:08,840 --> 00:31:12,240
Speaker 10: of all has been wild and the State Street data

652
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:16,560
Speaker 10: show that coming into this year hedging FX hedging by

653
00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:18,960
Speaker 10: international clients was at the lowest level for eight years.

654
00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:21,200
Speaker 10: And so what we're picking up as all of these

655
00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:24,120
Speaker 10: pension you know, a Danish pension fund, a Dutch pension fund,

656
00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:27,200
Speaker 10: an Asian insurer, they want to increase their FX hedging

657
00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:29,240
Speaker 10: by maybe ten to twenty points. They want to own

658
00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:32,680
Speaker 10: US credit or rates or orecities, but they need to

659
00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:36,680
Speaker 10: reduce that volatility' that's the number one. But then beyond that,

660
00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:38,680
Speaker 10: there's also a bit of push and pull. I think

661
00:31:38,680 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 10: there's a bit of demand to bring a bit more

662
00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:43,920
Speaker 10: capital back home to redeploy, both in Canada and Europe.

663
00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:45,880
Speaker 10: So I think there's also a can you take maybe

664
00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:48,200
Speaker 10: three four points off the table from the US and

665
00:31:48,280 --> 00:31:49,560
Speaker 10: maybe redeploy it back home.

666
00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:54,760
Speaker 5: US exceptionalism still a thing from an economic perspective, or

667
00:31:54,800 --> 00:31:56,400
Speaker 5: maybe less so these.

668
00:31:56,320 --> 00:32:00,680
Speaker 10: Days, So I think I'm in the camp. I thought

669
00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:02,680
Speaker 10: Mark Growan's line last week in milk And was great,

670
00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:04,800
Speaker 10: which is that it's it's not exceptionalis at the end,

671
00:32:04,840 --> 00:32:07,480
Speaker 10: and maybe it's the end of hyper exceptionalists. Okay, the

672
00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:10,080
Speaker 10: US is still and the extraordinary place to be. And

673
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:12,600
Speaker 10: as I said, a lot of the CEOs I've met

674
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:15,320
Speaker 10: in the last month want to keep their holdings. They

675
00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:17,560
Speaker 10: just want to mitigate the FX risk because it's just

676
00:32:17,600 --> 00:32:20,240
Speaker 10: been a bit too too hot to handle. So I

677
00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:22,000
Speaker 10: definitely think the exceptionalism is there.

678
00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:23,400
Speaker 2: Private equity.

679
00:32:23,400 --> 00:32:24,840
Speaker 5: We also heard in Milking last week a lot of

680
00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:26,640
Speaker 5: discussion about private equity. I think a lot of people

681
00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:29,840
Speaker 5: would like to get liquidity in their private equity, and

682
00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:32,600
Speaker 5: maybe a little bit less so today maybe people change.

683
00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:34,600
Speaker 2: You brought that up, you rude guys.

684
00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:35,960
Speaker 5: I know, yeah, So what do we do here?

685
00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:37,760
Speaker 10: So I think in the private markets that so again

686
00:32:37,840 --> 00:32:40,200
Speaker 10: coming out of our conversations, and we're trying to do

687
00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:42,000
Speaker 10: a survey, but no one really wants to put hard

688
00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:44,920
Speaker 10: numbers around it because the maybe the quarterly investment committees

689
00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:48,880
Speaker 10: haven't yet met. But I think on private equity, my

690
00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:51,720
Speaker 10: gut would be people want to get reduce it by

691
00:32:51,760 --> 00:32:54,560
Speaker 10: five points maybe, And some of that was already coming

692
00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:58,120
Speaker 10: into this year. Public markets about performed. Private part of

693
00:32:58,160 --> 00:33:00,880
Speaker 10: it is that actually about cash flow management that's said

694
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:03,480
Speaker 10: to themselves, we'll keep it, but will only put cash

695
00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:05,680
Speaker 10: out when we cash in. So obviously as those exits

696
00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:07,600
Speaker 10: have been pushed to the right by you tell me

697
00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:10,800
Speaker 10: six nine months, maybe a bit longer, that constrains it.

698
00:33:10,920 --> 00:33:14,200
Speaker 10: And there's some chips back home that said private credit

699
00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:18,680
Speaker 10: raising actually hit another new record in Q one from

700
00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:20,680
Speaker 10: what we can see for the top firm. So there's

701
00:33:20,680 --> 00:33:24,600
Speaker 10: a pivot, and this is why it's the secondary opportunity,

702
00:33:24,840 --> 00:33:26,640
Speaker 10: and it's the doubling down on wealth is kind of

703
00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:27,160
Speaker 10: where it's at.

704
00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:29,240
Speaker 2: You've I've seen us here for a few more minutes

705
00:33:29,280 --> 00:33:31,480
Speaker 2: and we're thrillies with us with Oliver Wyman. It's not

706
00:33:31,520 --> 00:33:34,120
Speaker 2: your remit there. But I have to ask. I think

707
00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:37,120
Speaker 2: for Americans, either the United Kingdom at post breakfast is

708
00:33:37,160 --> 00:33:40,120
Speaker 2: almost off the radar, or it's a convenient trip to

709
00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:45,240
Speaker 2: LHR British Airways buying a zillion dollars worth of Boeings.

710
00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:49,480
Speaker 2: Whatever we worry about the state of the United Kingdom,

711
00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:52,800
Speaker 2: you've got the confusion of us, the labors and power

712
00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:56,920
Speaker 2: the Democrats, the Tories are silent, the Republicans after the

713
00:33:57,040 --> 00:34:01,200
Speaker 2: site is a maga like reform as well. Politically, where

714
00:34:01,200 --> 00:34:04,840
Speaker 2: do you see your United Kingdom in a year or two?

715
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:06,080
Speaker 2: Do we have a clue?

716
00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:09,960
Speaker 10: It's a great question. Look, if this is the moment,

717
00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:12,000
Speaker 10: way to be a bit more long term. The great

718
00:34:12,040 --> 00:34:14,680
Speaker 10: advantage of the UK for many years was it was

719
00:34:14,719 --> 00:34:17,399
Speaker 10: mid Atlantic. It didn't have quite the US growth rate,

720
00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:20,640
Speaker 10: but it certainly was growing faster than Europe. Unfortunately, since

721
00:34:20,640 --> 00:34:23,440
Speaker 10: the financial crisis, but particularly since Brexit, we've lost that

722
00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:26,759
Speaker 10: UK exceptionalism. In fact, in a way we were exceptional

723
00:34:27,120 --> 00:34:29,600
Speaker 10: compared to Europe, and now where we've actually the end

724
00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:32,719
Speaker 10: of UK exceptionalism in twenty sixteen was really the right,

725
00:34:32,719 --> 00:34:35,560
Speaker 10: and actually my old Prime Minister Carney was correct. The

726
00:34:35,600 --> 00:34:39,200
Speaker 10: Brexit was economically, at least put to one side, politically

727
00:34:39,400 --> 00:34:42,360
Speaker 10: a poor decision. So I think that we're trying to

728
00:34:42,360 --> 00:34:45,720
Speaker 10: get our act together again. I think at the moment

729
00:34:45,920 --> 00:34:49,560
Speaker 10: that it's very difficult to see how you get back

730
00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:51,359
Speaker 10: to the exceptionalism anytime soon.

731
00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:55,000
Speaker 2: Is this accit amendable? I mean, is it all or nothing?

732
00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:58,960
Speaker 2: Or is there a way in a parliamentarior system to

733
00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:00,920
Speaker 2: pull away from Brexit?

734
00:35:01,600 --> 00:35:04,200
Speaker 10: So why don't we do? I think one thing that

735
00:35:05,280 --> 00:35:07,080
Speaker 10: the President here has really shon a light on is

736
00:35:07,120 --> 00:35:10,640
Speaker 10: like the terms of trade internationally. The UK's terms of

737
00:35:10,680 --> 00:35:15,840
Speaker 10: trade with its nearest counterpart is now poorer. So is

738
00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:18,280
Speaker 10: there a way to put the politics one side improve

739
00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 10: trade relationships? And might be if you want to us

740
00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:23,040
Speaker 10: of a Hail Mary, it would be if if Canada

741
00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:26,279
Speaker 10: wants to actually have lower tariffs with Europe, maybe there's

742
00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:30,200
Speaker 10: an opportunity for Ukraine Canada UK to end into a

743
00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:32,640
Speaker 10: much lower tariff zone. That would be the dream. If

744
00:35:32,640 --> 00:35:35,240
Speaker 10: it's I mean it's been talked about, whether it happens,

745
00:35:35,239 --> 00:35:38,400
Speaker 10: I don't think I'm the right political expert to put odds.

746
00:35:38,160 --> 00:35:40,800
Speaker 5: On thirty seconds. What is the politics of Brexit today?

747
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:42,440
Speaker 5: Would it Do you think it would pass or not

748
00:35:42,520 --> 00:35:44,160
Speaker 5: pass if they were to go again today?

749
00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:46,480
Speaker 10: Oh, based on no, there's buyer's remorse. So if you

750
00:35:46,520 --> 00:35:49,239
Speaker 10: look at the polls today that it wouldn't pass part

751
00:35:49,280 --> 00:35:52,080
Speaker 10: of part of which is because the older cohorts died partly,

752
00:35:52,440 --> 00:35:53,560
Speaker 10: but it's also just the regret.

753
00:35:53,600 --> 00:35:55,040
Speaker 5: But if I want to go see a Sacra match

754
00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:56,600
Speaker 5: over in Paris, I take the train.

755
00:35:57,440 --> 00:35:59,120
Speaker 8: I can't just walk in now, I got to go

756
00:35:59,160 --> 00:36:00,000
Speaker 8: to a line.

757
00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:04,200
Speaker 10: Yeah, well watch which possible? I mean an Englishman? Yes,

758
00:36:04,600 --> 00:36:06,160
Speaker 10: I say, you probably would have been the line anyway.

759
00:36:06,200 --> 00:36:08,640
Speaker 8: Anyway, special line for me.

760
00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:10,440
Speaker 10: I know it's a it's a it's a pain in

761
00:36:10,440 --> 00:36:12,279
Speaker 10: the neck, and I travel an awful lot. In fact,

762
00:36:12,400 --> 00:36:14,200
Speaker 10: do you know what the bizarre thing is? It's now easy.

763
00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:16,400
Speaker 10: It's quicker for me to get in JFK than it

764
00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:20,560
Speaker 10: is in in uh in Paris. It's not really gloomed

765
00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:25,040
Speaker 10: entry here. I'm through in two minutes. In Paris, you

766
00:36:25,120 --> 00:36:25,960
Speaker 10: global entry.

767
00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:29,879
Speaker 2: I don't have to go like six months. It's such

768
00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:32,080
Speaker 2: your kid me, Hugh, thank you so much, you von

769
00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:35,600
Speaker 2: Stein Oliver Wyman with some good perspective there.

770
00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:45,280
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

771
00:36:45,320 --> 00:36:48,320
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android

772
00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:51,319
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch

773
00:36:51,440 --> 00:36:54,360
Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the

774
00:36:54,400 --> 00:36:55,480
Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal.

775
00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:59,160
Speaker 2: Joining us right now as we continue this conversation, and

776
00:36:59,280 --> 00:37:03,960
Speaker 2: here I'm America's fixation on technology, Daniel, I know a

777
00:37:04,040 --> 00:37:06,319
Speaker 2: teriff when I see it, Ives, He joins us now

778
00:37:06,320 --> 00:37:11,480
Speaker 2: with Webbush Securities. Describe Tim Cook's mood, Dan Iives, I

779
00:37:11,520 --> 00:37:14,080
Speaker 2: mean I saw some blurb over the weekend that Tim

780
00:37:14,120 --> 00:37:18,839
Speaker 2: Cook is arguably the most important American with China manufacturing,

781
00:37:19,320 --> 00:37:22,360
Speaker 2: with the impact in the world. Everybody's got an iPhone

782
00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:25,400
Speaker 2: up when the Pope was Saint Peter's square, I mean

783
00:37:25,680 --> 00:37:29,120
Speaker 2: looked like an ad for iPhones, Danives. What does Tim

784
00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:30,360
Speaker 2: Cook think this morning?

785
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:36,120
Speaker 9: I mean, Cook's probably drinking a mimosa. I love it,

786
00:37:36,880 --> 00:37:40,440
Speaker 9: having a great breakfast and it's a bright day. I

787
00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:44,160
Speaker 9: mean at the end of the day, for Apple, for Nvidia,

788
00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:47,880
Speaker 9: for tech, this is a dream scenario and in my opinion,

789
00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:51,160
Speaker 9: it puts new tech highs now back on the table.

790
00:37:51,239 --> 00:37:55,080
Speaker 9: For twenty twenty five, but Apple front and center in

791
00:37:55,120 --> 00:37:57,719
Speaker 9: terms of how they were exposing the China tariffs.

792
00:37:58,280 --> 00:38:02,440
Speaker 5: So Dan, how do you think this impacts Apple day today?

793
00:38:02,480 --> 00:38:03,920
Speaker 5: I mean, I mean they've had to live under the

794
00:38:03,960 --> 00:38:06,799
Speaker 5: sword of wit, these one hundred and fifty percent tariffs and.

795
00:38:06,800 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 8: What does that mean?

796
00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:10,560
Speaker 5: Well, all companies do, of course, but Apple seems to

797
00:38:10,560 --> 00:38:14,160
Speaker 5: be our postal child for kind of China here has

798
00:38:14,200 --> 00:38:17,239
Speaker 5: there policy? Has there view of China change? Do you

799
00:38:17,239 --> 00:38:19,000
Speaker 5: think over the last four or five six months?

800
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:23,200
Speaker 9: Yeah, made look obviously more hedge policy relative to India.

801
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:26,800
Speaker 9: But I think what this essentially does is it slows

802
00:38:26,840 --> 00:38:30,759
Speaker 9: down significantly that that shift to India, especially as you

803
00:38:30,840 --> 00:38:34,320
Speaker 9: go into iPhone seventeen. Now you get the engines ready,

804
00:38:34,600 --> 00:38:37,120
Speaker 9: China is going to continue to be the vast majority

805
00:38:37,200 --> 00:38:39,600
Speaker 9: when it comes to production for I. So the thing

806
00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:42,600
Speaker 9: that's how it changes is like there was a there

807
00:38:42,640 --> 00:38:46,040
Speaker 9: was a window here where this needed to change. And

808
00:38:46,080 --> 00:38:49,960
Speaker 9: that's why look market also speaks to there's gonna be

809
00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:53,880
Speaker 9: no retaliatory. That was to worry about China retaliatory against Apple.

810
00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:58,120
Speaker 5: So Dan, in your tech space, you cover everything, how

811
00:38:58,120 --> 00:39:00,319
Speaker 5: do you kind of rank kind of the opportunity now

812
00:39:00,360 --> 00:39:02,520
Speaker 5: because we wake up this morning. It seems like a

813
00:39:02,520 --> 00:39:04,959
Speaker 5: little bit of a different world here, maybe a little

814
00:39:04,960 --> 00:39:07,520
Speaker 5: bit you know, less restrictive, a little bit more growthy

815
00:39:08,080 --> 00:39:10,840
Speaker 5: outlook out there. So how does that impact your tech space?

816
00:39:11,600 --> 00:39:14,840
Speaker 9: I look at a game changer because the thirty percent

817
00:39:14,960 --> 00:39:18,520
Speaker 9: realistically on the China tioffs. I mean when you start

818
00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:20,920
Speaker 9: thinking about now, we probably go fifteen to twenty percent.

819
00:39:21,280 --> 00:39:26,160
Speaker 9: So streets already seen through that. Now you look at Apple,

820
00:39:26,480 --> 00:39:29,719
Speaker 9: you can video, you get chip names, you know TSMC

821
00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:33,280
Speaker 9: and O, there's those been names really table pounders here

822
00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:36,640
Speaker 9: and then AI think about the AI revolution names right

823
00:39:36,680 --> 00:39:40,680
Speaker 9: from pound Tier to Microsoft to all the hyperscalurs. I

824
00:39:40,719 --> 00:39:45,239
Speaker 9: mean this this now puts that that that key. You know,

825
00:39:45,280 --> 00:39:47,640
Speaker 9: if you think about now that that key bowl case

826
00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:48,920
Speaker 9: back on the table.

827
00:39:49,360 --> 00:39:53,279
Speaker 2: Do they have pricing power? I saw luxury goods in

828
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:58,280
Speaker 2: Europe raising prices and we've had a number of conversations.

829
00:39:58,280 --> 00:40:01,160
Speaker 2: I think a Dana Telsey in retail well, where pricing

830
00:40:01,280 --> 00:40:05,640
Speaker 2: power is everything. Do they have pricing power at Cooper Tino?

831
00:40:06,760 --> 00:40:10,200
Speaker 9: Look Tom, I think they have pricing power to an extent,

832
00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:12,320
Speaker 9: but the last thing they want to do is trip

833
00:40:12,360 --> 00:40:15,799
Speaker 9: over their own shoelaies is you, especially when you the

834
00:40:15,800 --> 00:40:18,840
Speaker 9: next two three years, I mean you're basically gonna have

835
00:40:18,960 --> 00:40:21,200
Speaker 9: half their install based that are going to be going

836
00:40:21,239 --> 00:40:23,680
Speaker 9: through upgrades. So the last thing they want to do

837
00:40:23,880 --> 00:40:27,160
Speaker 9: is increase just to increase, and then all of a

838
00:40:27,160 --> 00:40:30,640
Speaker 9: sudden there could be cannibalization five to ten percent of demand.

839
00:40:31,000 --> 00:40:33,279
Speaker 9: So they're very well aware of that. But that's where

840
00:40:33,320 --> 00:40:36,200
Speaker 9: the tariff situation goes. Back to the tariff situation, this

841
00:40:36,320 --> 00:40:39,800
Speaker 9: gives them the flexibility they could raise in certain areas

842
00:40:39,880 --> 00:40:42,920
Speaker 9: and ultimately not in others, but then also goes the

843
00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:47,680
Speaker 9: AI strategy where you now need to, you know, really produce,

844
00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:51,239
Speaker 9: especially when I'm to WWDC in June. What's coming on

845
00:40:51,280 --> 00:40:52,280
Speaker 9: iPhone seventeen?

846
00:40:53,040 --> 00:40:55,920
Speaker 5: Hey Dan, where's Elon Musk these days?

847
00:40:57,600 --> 00:41:01,000
Speaker 9: I mean, thankfully, not in the way I nows, not

848
00:41:01,200 --> 00:41:05,840
Speaker 9: mar Lago in the factories, and what I believe is

849
00:41:05,880 --> 00:41:10,240
Speaker 9: now driving me a ton of strategy for Austin in June,

850
00:41:10,360 --> 00:41:12,799
Speaker 9: and that, okay, it speaks to why Tesla's up right.

851
00:41:12,840 --> 00:41:15,520
Speaker 9: I mean, you need your leader back. They got their

852
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:19,759
Speaker 9: biggest asset back, and I think that was it's gonna

853
00:41:19,760 --> 00:41:23,200
Speaker 9: be as a pivotal moment for the Tesla story.

854
00:41:24,280 --> 00:41:26,279
Speaker 2: Tell us about use of cash here. We had a

855
00:41:26,280 --> 00:41:30,040
Speaker 2: bond transaction with Apple. I'm gonna say it was pretty

856
00:41:30,080 --> 00:41:33,640
Speaker 2: small actually, and they've got a lot of short duration stuff.

857
00:41:33,640 --> 00:41:36,080
Speaker 2: I assume they have to substitute in here. But do

858
00:41:36,160 --> 00:41:39,200
Speaker 2: you see use of cash of I mean, Paul's screaming

859
00:41:39,280 --> 00:41:43,160
Speaker 2: for dividend increases versus buy back. But even Dan I's

860
00:41:43,480 --> 00:41:46,040
Speaker 2: share buyback. I think they did one hundred billion at

861
00:41:46,040 --> 00:41:50,160
Speaker 2: the last at the last earnings release. I mean, do

862
00:41:50,239 --> 00:41:53,040
Speaker 2: you model out they could actually do a one hundred

863
00:41:53,080 --> 00:41:56,240
Speaker 2: and twenty or dare I say one hundred and fifty

864
00:41:56,640 --> 00:41:59,680
Speaker 2: billion dollar announcement? Well?

865
00:41:59,840 --> 00:42:03,360
Speaker 9: I think also you could they could up that And

866
00:42:03,400 --> 00:42:05,400
Speaker 9: when you start to think about some of the cast,

867
00:42:05,520 --> 00:42:08,799
Speaker 9: especially the next year or two, obviously diving is not

868
00:42:08,840 --> 00:42:12,759
Speaker 9: really the focus, but they're gonna have a situation where

869
00:42:12,800 --> 00:42:16,640
Speaker 9: they might have to do some accelerated you know, in

870
00:42:16,719 --> 00:42:19,239
Speaker 9: terms of buybacks, you know, relative to the cash that

871
00:42:19,320 --> 00:42:22,040
Speaker 9: they're going to generate. Because look that it's a high

872
00:42:22,080 --> 00:42:25,680
Speaker 9: class problem that they're going to be, especially with no

873
00:42:25,960 --> 00:42:28,560
Speaker 9: M and A. That continues to be their strategy.

874
00:42:29,560 --> 00:42:32,840
Speaker 5: Hey, Dan, before you know, President Trump took office in January.

875
00:42:32,880 --> 00:42:35,840
Speaker 5: All we talked about for maybe two years was AI

876
00:42:36,280 --> 00:42:39,440
Speaker 5: and then now it's been on a tariff discussion non stop.

877
00:42:39,800 --> 00:42:43,520
Speaker 5: Can you give us a refresh a where on Wall

878
00:42:43,560 --> 00:42:45,040
Speaker 5: Street the AI story is today?

879
00:42:45,880 --> 00:42:49,160
Speaker 9: Yeah, Look, we always talked about the AI party, and

880
00:42:49,239 --> 00:42:51,600
Speaker 9: I'd say Trump closed the party for a little for

881
00:42:51,680 --> 00:42:55,799
Speaker 9: the tariff situation. Parties back open right, it's still it's

882
00:42:55,840 --> 00:42:58,200
Speaker 9: called ten thirty pm in that party that goes to

883
00:42:58,280 --> 00:43:01,880
Speaker 9: four am. If you think about it, software use cases

884
00:43:02,040 --> 00:43:04,919
Speaker 9: we're seeing with the hyperscalers, you're seeing a pollenteers seeing

885
00:43:04,960 --> 00:43:07,399
Speaker 9: in service. Now it's playing out in front of us

886
00:43:07,440 --> 00:43:09,920
Speaker 9: the three and twenty five billion of capacs that's been

887
00:43:09,960 --> 00:43:13,319
Speaker 9: doubled down by tech that only four percent of US

888
00:43:13,480 --> 00:43:16,200
Speaker 9: enterprise have gone down the AI path. So to my

889
00:43:16,280 --> 00:43:19,799
Speaker 9: point is that tariffs have not even slowed down this

890
00:43:19,920 --> 00:43:22,840
Speaker 9: AI revolution. It's two to three trillion that's going to

891
00:43:22,880 --> 00:43:25,399
Speaker 9: be spent. And that's why we're seeing with open AI

892
00:43:25,520 --> 00:43:27,759
Speaker 9: and others. I mean, this is just the beginning of

893
00:43:27,760 --> 00:43:32,600
Speaker 9: a fourth Industrial revolution, but it also is US and China.

894
00:43:32,640 --> 00:43:35,360
Speaker 9: They both blinked because they know no one wants to

895
00:43:35,440 --> 00:43:38,600
Speaker 9: lose out on really what's going to be a generational

896
00:43:38,760 --> 00:43:39,879
Speaker 9: environment for tech?

897
00:43:40,680 --> 00:43:43,000
Speaker 2: Where's your target and We've got to make some news here, Dan,

898
00:43:43,040 --> 00:43:45,360
Speaker 2: I mean fairly just spoke to best and I'm speaking

899
00:43:45,360 --> 00:43:48,360
Speaker 2: to ives. It's more important than the Secretary of Treasury.

900
00:43:48,560 --> 00:43:51,400
Speaker 2: Can you announce your web Bush increase in your two

901
00:43:51,520 --> 00:43:53,280
Speaker 2: seventy price call on Apple?

902
00:43:54,160 --> 00:43:56,959
Speaker 9: Looked time? I think now with this three is back

903
00:43:57,000 --> 00:43:59,640
Speaker 9: on the table. I mean, I think now you could

904
00:43:59,640 --> 00:44:02,840
Speaker 9: start irrationalize that Apple is one the next twelve months

905
00:44:02,840 --> 00:44:05,440
Speaker 9: and we could be looking at you know, I think

906
00:44:05,600 --> 00:44:07,359
Speaker 9: ultimately could be a stock of the three in front

907
00:44:07,400 --> 00:44:09,520
Speaker 9: of it. That's my you. You could add thirty to

908
00:44:09,520 --> 00:44:12,920
Speaker 9: forty dollars per share in terms of what happened here

909
00:44:12,960 --> 00:44:15,200
Speaker 9: on these China taroff discussions for Apple.

910
00:44:15,840 --> 00:44:17,040
Speaker 2: Was that a by recommendation?

911
00:44:17,200 --> 00:44:19,000
Speaker 9: Yeah, like that's it.

912
00:44:19,000 --> 00:44:23,759
Speaker 2: It was edge yep, Dan, I Ale, Thank you, Dan,

913
00:44:23,920 --> 00:44:27,240
Speaker 2: greatly appreciating short notice. Is earning that with the Apple

914
00:44:27,320 --> 00:44:28,320
Speaker 2: moving six percent?

915
00:44:28,880 --> 00:44:34,640
Speaker 5: Uh whing whining green jacket though, just it's upsetting.

916
00:44:34,920 --> 00:44:37,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, you know, it's just it's going to get

917
00:44:37,239 --> 00:44:42,600
Speaker 2: the masters. That's master, that's its masters jacket digalized. Thank

918
00:44:42,640 --> 00:44:43,920
Speaker 2: you so much.

919
00:44:44,160 --> 00:44:49,000
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920
00:44:49,120 --> 00:44:53,400
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921
00:44:53,520 --> 00:44:56,760
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922
00:44:56,880 --> 00:45:00,680
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923
00:45:01,000 --> 00:45:04,120
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924
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