1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:07,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:10,160 --> 00:00:12,840 Speaker 2: This is the blue Berg Day BAQ podcast, available every 3 00:00:12,840 --> 00:00:15,800 Speaker 2: morning on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen. It's Friday, 4 00:00:15,840 --> 00:00:18,760 Speaker 2: the ninth of May in London. I'm Caroline Hipki and. 5 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:19,600 Speaker 1: I'm Stephen Carroll. 6 00:00:19,680 --> 00:00:22,760 Speaker 3: Coming up today, the US may dramatically cut its China 7 00:00:22,920 --> 00:00:26,480 Speaker 3: tariffs to less than sixty percent if talks go well 8 00:00:26,480 --> 00:00:27,880 Speaker 3: with Beijing this weekend. 9 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:31,880 Speaker 2: The UK agreement is a political win for Kiss Starmer, 10 00:00:31,920 --> 00:00:34,880 Speaker 2: but the economic benefits appear less certain. 11 00:00:35,120 --> 00:00:38,320 Speaker 3: Plus once known just as Bob, a baseball fan from 12 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:42,040 Speaker 3: the South side of Chicago, Cardinal Prevost of Francis Protege 13 00:00:42,120 --> 00:00:44,000 Speaker 3: becomes the first American pope. 14 00:00:44,159 --> 00:00:46,279 Speaker 2: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories. 15 00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:50,760 Speaker 3: The Trump administration is considering a significant reduction in tariff's 16 00:00:50,760 --> 00:00:54,240 Speaker 3: on Chinese goods as part of talks this weekend between 17 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:57,880 Speaker 3: the world's two largest economies, sources tell Bloomberg. The White 18 00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:00,200 Speaker 3: House is weighing a cut in levies to be low 19 00:01:00,360 --> 00:01:03,680 Speaker 3: sixty percent, with hopes that Beijing will agree to a 20 00:01:03,720 --> 00:01:07,880 Speaker 3: reciprocal move. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant and Chinese Vice 21 00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:11,160 Speaker 3: Premier Hulifeng are meeting in Switzerland tomorrow for the first 22 00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:15,680 Speaker 3: high level talks since they imposed triple digit tariffs last month. 23 00:01:16,080 --> 00:01:20,440 Speaker 3: Speaking yesterday, President Trump hinted at the prospect of lower levees. 24 00:01:20,920 --> 00:01:23,000 Speaker 1: I mean, we're going to see right now, you can't 25 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 1: get any higher. It's one hundred and forty five. So 26 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:27,880 Speaker 1: we know what's coming down. I think we're going to 27 00:01:27,880 --> 00:01:29,280 Speaker 1: have a very good relationship. 28 00:01:29,360 --> 00:01:32,160 Speaker 3: Trump's lators comments come as new data shows that China's 29 00:01:32,240 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 3: exports grew by a greater than expected eight point one 30 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:38,640 Speaker 3: percent in April. However, shipments to the US slumped by 31 00:01:38,720 --> 00:01:42,040 Speaker 3: twenty one percent and imports from America fell by almost 32 00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:45,760 Speaker 3: fourteen percent after the imposition of duty's. Meanwhile, exports to 33 00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:48,800 Speaker 3: the European Union and Southeast Asian countries rose eight and 34 00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:52,280 Speaker 3: twenty one percent, respectively, in a sign that China may 35 00:01:52,280 --> 00:01:54,680 Speaker 3: be finding other markets for its goods. 36 00:01:54,960 --> 00:01:57,280 Speaker 2: The UK became the first country to sign a trade 37 00:01:57,280 --> 00:01:59,760 Speaker 2: deal with President Trump since the start of his global 38 00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:03,720 Speaker 2: trade The US hailed the agreement as an historic step 39 00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:08,760 Speaker 2: towards reshaping its global trade relationships. US Commerce Secretary Howard 40 00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:11,960 Speaker 2: Lottnik told Bloomberg the deal could serve as a model 41 00:02:12,000 --> 00:02:15,639 Speaker 2: for future agreements, outlining the kind of concessions that President 42 00:02:15,680 --> 00:02:18,920 Speaker 2: Trump is seeking in return for tariff relief. 43 00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:22,400 Speaker 4: As the President said, many of those will be higher. 44 00:02:22,400 --> 00:02:24,639 Speaker 4: Of course, you can bring them down by opening your government, 45 00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:30,519 Speaker 4: opening your economy to US exports and then the sectoral tariffs. 46 00:02:30,919 --> 00:02:33,919 Speaker 4: That's where you can be super smart if you're opening 47 00:02:33,960 --> 00:02:36,600 Speaker 4: your market to US, and that's what the UK did. 48 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:40,520 Speaker 2: Howard Latanek also conceded that targeted deals with the likes 49 00:02:40,520 --> 00:02:44,280 Speaker 2: of South Korea and Japan may take much longer to finalize. 50 00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:48,320 Speaker 2: The Anglo American agreement grants the US better market access 51 00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:53,040 Speaker 2: and faster customs clearance for exports to the UK. In return, 52 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:57,799 Speaker 2: the UK gets limited tariff relief on auto's, steel and aluminium, 53 00:02:58,080 --> 00:03:01,360 Speaker 2: with many details though still to be nig agociated. 54 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:03,920 Speaker 3: The britain success in becoming the first country to secure 55 00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:06,800 Speaker 3: a trade deal with President Donald Trump since his global 56 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:09,960 Speaker 3: tariff offensive is being hailed as a political win for 57 00:03:10,000 --> 00:03:13,519 Speaker 3: the Prime Minister cair Starmer. Levies on cars are being 58 00:03:13,560 --> 00:03:16,959 Speaker 3: reduced from twenty seven point five percent down to ten 59 00:03:17,040 --> 00:03:21,320 Speaker 3: percent on a quota of one hundred thousand vehicles annually. Meanwhile, 60 00:03:21,320 --> 00:03:24,400 Speaker 3: tariff's on steel and aluminium will drop from twenty five 61 00:03:24,440 --> 00:03:28,359 Speaker 3: percent to zero. In a call with President Trump, Starmer 62 00:03:28,440 --> 00:03:31,000 Speaker 3: described the deal as a significant moment. 63 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:34,120 Speaker 5: With this president, this Prime Minister, We've managed to achieve 64 00:03:34,120 --> 00:03:36,400 Speaker 5: what many people have tried to achieve for many years. 65 00:03:36,480 --> 00:03:39,920 Speaker 5: It feels completely historic. Donald, Thank you so much. It's 66 00:03:39,960 --> 00:03:42,440 Speaker 5: really good to have got this deal over the line. 67 00:03:42,680 --> 00:03:45,880 Speaker 5: Predue to both teams, Predude to our countries, and prebute 68 00:03:45,880 --> 00:03:46,640 Speaker 5: to your leadership. 69 00:03:47,040 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 3: Starmer's allies are especially pleased with the White House commitment 70 00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:53,760 Speaker 3: to provide the UK with preferential treatment in any future 71 00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:55,440 Speaker 3: sector specific tariffs. 72 00:03:55,640 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 1: However, Bloomberg Economics. 73 00:03:56,960 --> 00:03:59,440 Speaker 3: Estimates the deal will only boost a UK GDP by 74 00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:04,240 Speaker 3: zero into one percent, with ongoing global tariffs and uncertainty 75 00:04:04,360 --> 00:04:08,520 Speaker 3: still expected to drag growth down by zero point two percent. 76 00:04:08,960 --> 00:04:13,520 Speaker 2: Bloomberg understands that British Airways parent IAG is poised to 77 00:04:13,720 --> 00:04:18,360 Speaker 2: order roughly thirty Boeing seven eighty seven Dreamliner aircraft. US 78 00:04:18,400 --> 00:04:21,520 Speaker 2: Commerce Secretary Howard lot nick Tea's the order yesterday telew 79 00:04:21,560 --> 00:04:26,760 Speaker 2: reporters an unnamed British airline would buy ten billion dollars 80 00:04:26,760 --> 00:04:29,599 Speaker 2: worth of Boeing planes. He then said that engines from 81 00:04:29,760 --> 00:04:34,120 Speaker 2: rolls Royce and other UK aircraft suppliers won't be subject 82 00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:37,279 Speaker 2: to US tariffs. Boeing is the largest US exporter of 83 00:04:37,320 --> 00:04:41,000 Speaker 2: manufactured goods and has been a target for countries retaliating 84 00:04:41,320 --> 00:04:43,720 Speaker 2: against the White House's trade policies. 85 00:04:44,279 --> 00:04:47,760 Speaker 3: As US trade policy continues to dominate the market narrative, 86 00:04:47,800 --> 00:04:51,000 Speaker 3: the uncertainty is having a surprising upside for the UK 87 00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:51,919 Speaker 3: housing market. 88 00:04:52,200 --> 00:04:54,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Uwen Pots has more. 89 00:04:53,960 --> 00:04:57,680 Speaker 6: President Trump's trade policy is upending alliances, threatening global growth 90 00:04:57,760 --> 00:05:01,920 Speaker 6: and causing mayhem for business for UK homeowners is working 91 00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:04,400 Speaker 6: out quite well. In the last few weeks, several major 92 00:05:04,480 --> 00:05:07,440 Speaker 6: high street lenders of cup mortgage deals below four percent 93 00:05:07,600 --> 00:05:10,400 Speaker 6: for the first time in months, bringing the average down 94 00:05:10,400 --> 00:05:12,559 Speaker 6: from about four and a half percent at the start 95 00:05:12,640 --> 00:05:15,440 Speaker 6: of the year. Trump's trade war has seen boring costs 96 00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:18,320 Speaker 6: fall on the guilt markets, which is fed through to mortgages, 97 00:05:18,880 --> 00:05:21,320 Speaker 6: and the Bank of England made clear yesterday that tariffs 98 00:05:21,320 --> 00:05:24,680 Speaker 6: were a key factor in their base rate cuts In London. 99 00:05:24,680 --> 00:05:26,279 Speaker 1: I'm Uwinge Pots Bloomberg. 100 00:05:25,960 --> 00:05:29,359 Speaker 3: Radio Building on the protected land earmarks to prevent urban 101 00:05:29,480 --> 00:05:33,000 Speaker 3: sprawl would mark the biggest change in London housing policy 102 00:05:33,040 --> 00:05:36,719 Speaker 3: since the nineteen sixties, and a reversal of mercediq Can's 103 00:05:36,720 --> 00:05:40,440 Speaker 3: previous opposition to the idea. The changes are set to 104 00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:43,359 Speaker 3: be announced in a speech today setting out why the 105 00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:47,080 Speaker 3: move is necessary to meet the capital's house building targets. 106 00:05:47,400 --> 00:05:50,640 Speaker 3: A consultation on the plan will be open until late June, 107 00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:53,839 Speaker 3: with the draft to be published in twenty twenty six 108 00:05:54,160 --> 00:05:57,480 Speaker 3: and formal adoption expected in twenty twenty eight. 109 00:05:58,000 --> 00:06:01,760 Speaker 2: And lastly, former Cardinal Robert p Els has been elected Pope, 110 00:06:01,880 --> 00:06:05,000 Speaker 2: the first North American in history to take up the role. 111 00:06:05,320 --> 00:06:08,640 Speaker 2: It took the church's one hundred and thirty three electors 112 00:06:08,720 --> 00:06:12,600 Speaker 2: just two days to identify Pope France's successor, who has 113 00:06:12,680 --> 00:06:16,520 Speaker 2: chosen the name Leo the fourteenth. Speaking to crowds at 114 00:06:16,560 --> 00:06:20,000 Speaker 2: the Vatican, the new Catholic leader outlined his hopes for 115 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:20,600 Speaker 2: the future. 116 00:06:22,000 --> 00:06:24,560 Speaker 7: Together, we must try to find out how to be 117 00:06:24,640 --> 00:06:32,159 Speaker 7: a mission church, a church that the ills bridges establishes dialogue. 118 00:06:31,760 --> 00:06:33,039 Speaker 5: That's always focused on. 119 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:37,320 Speaker 1: This cancer with open arms. 120 00:06:37,720 --> 00:06:40,560 Speaker 2: Pope Leo the fourteenth, speaking there through a translator. He 121 00:06:40,640 --> 00:06:43,719 Speaker 2: also spoke Spanish during the address, in a tribute to 122 00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:47,000 Speaker 2: the people of Peru, where he served as an archbishop, 123 00:06:47,200 --> 00:06:51,120 Speaker 2: eventually gaining citizenship. Those are our top stories this morning. 124 00:06:51,600 --> 00:06:54,040 Speaker 3: On the markets, we are looking at the dollar holding 125 00:06:54,080 --> 00:06:58,159 Speaker 3: steady after yesterday's gains. The tenure Treasury yield is down 126 00:06:58,160 --> 00:07:00,520 Speaker 3: a basis points this morning at four point three to 127 00:07:00,640 --> 00:07:04,120 Speaker 3: seven percent. The Mscirish Pacific Index half a percent hire old. 128 00:07:04,120 --> 00:07:06,880 Speaker 3: There's some weakness on Chinese share markets ahead of this 129 00:07:06,960 --> 00:07:10,240 Speaker 3: weekend's trade talks. The CSI three hundred in DECKX down 130 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:13,160 Speaker 3: by a quarter of one percent. European stock futures pointing higher, 131 00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:15,040 Speaker 3: up by a quarter. The S and P five hundred 132 00:07:15,120 --> 00:07:17,640 Speaker 3: yesterday finished six tents higher, and futures are pointing a 133 00:07:17,680 --> 00:07:19,360 Speaker 3: tenth of one percent higher this morning. 134 00:07:19,600 --> 00:07:21,200 Speaker 2: Now in a moment, we'll being you the latest on 135 00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:24,880 Speaker 2: what to expect from this weekend's US China trade talks. Plus, 136 00:07:25,280 --> 00:07:28,600 Speaker 2: did Kiss Darma get an economic win as well as 137 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:32,360 Speaker 2: a political one with yesterday's US trade agreement? We can 138 00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:35,320 Speaker 2: discuss that. But there is another story that has support 139 00:07:35,320 --> 00:07:38,679 Speaker 2: our eye that we've been reading today, the inside story 140 00:07:38,720 --> 00:07:42,160 Speaker 2: of this year's Bordeaux wine tasting seasons. Does this appeal 141 00:07:42,200 --> 00:07:42,520 Speaker 2: to you. 142 00:07:42,960 --> 00:07:43,680 Speaker 1: Out, Caroline? 143 00:07:43,720 --> 00:07:46,000 Speaker 3: Why would you assume that on a Friday morning, I'd 144 00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:48,360 Speaker 3: be excited to be reading about wine This is the 145 00:07:48,520 --> 00:07:51,160 Speaker 3: on premire, which is when wine buyers and critics get 146 00:07:51,200 --> 00:07:53,720 Speaker 3: a first taste of the latest vintage while it's still 147 00:07:54,080 --> 00:07:57,240 Speaker 3: aging in the barrel. So it's not it's not why 148 00:07:57,280 --> 00:07:59,120 Speaker 3: necessary that you'd want to be drinking, but it does 149 00:07:59,200 --> 00:08:01,679 Speaker 3: give those in the know a sort of sneak previous 150 00:08:01,760 --> 00:08:04,440 Speaker 3: to how this particular vintage, which won't be bottled for 151 00:08:04,440 --> 00:08:08,080 Speaker 3: another eighteen months or so at least, is like. There 152 00:08:08,080 --> 00:08:10,160 Speaker 3: has been a lot of concern about this particular vintage 153 00:08:10,160 --> 00:08:12,960 Speaker 3: because last year, both the spring and the harvest was 154 00:08:13,000 --> 00:08:15,480 Speaker 3: cold and rainy, so fears about the quality of what 155 00:08:15,520 --> 00:08:17,440 Speaker 3: you were going to get out of it. Ian McCoy 156 00:08:17,480 --> 00:08:20,520 Speaker 3: were writing in Bloomberg's Top Shelf Drinks newsletter. It says 157 00:08:20,680 --> 00:08:23,200 Speaker 3: that the results weren't bad, but there's a lot of 158 00:08:23,240 --> 00:08:27,000 Speaker 3: concern about prices, not only because it's not necessarily the 159 00:08:27,040 --> 00:08:30,320 Speaker 3: best year that these Bordeaux wine producers have had, but 160 00:08:30,400 --> 00:08:33,600 Speaker 3: of course also tariffs, because essentially the buying and selling 161 00:08:33,679 --> 00:08:36,400 Speaker 3: happens now, but those bottles won't be delivered for years 162 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:38,800 Speaker 3: down the line, and that's when if there are tariffs 163 00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:41,240 Speaker 3: in place, they could actually drive up the prices. So 164 00:08:41,679 --> 00:08:44,760 Speaker 3: the pressure on the shadows to bring down prices. US 165 00:08:44,840 --> 00:08:47,240 Speaker 3: buyers are pulling back in particular because they're worried about 166 00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:48,880 Speaker 3: how much they're going to cost down the line as well. 167 00:08:48,920 --> 00:08:52,120 Speaker 3: So really interesting time for the Bordeau wine producing region. 168 00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:54,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, it does feel like one of those stories that 169 00:08:54,160 --> 00:08:57,520 Speaker 2: we've been wide about concerned about not just climate change 170 00:08:57,520 --> 00:09:00,400 Speaker 2: but also you know, trade for so long, and yet 171 00:09:00,440 --> 00:09:02,960 Speaker 2: this perhaps is one of those pivotal years. The good 172 00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:05,599 Speaker 2: news though, is that Ellen McCoy has also got a 173 00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:08,280 Speaker 2: list of the most interesting lines for this season. 174 00:09:08,320 --> 00:09:10,400 Speaker 1: She says, don't pay too much. That's the most important thing. 175 00:09:10,720 --> 00:09:13,160 Speaker 3: Okay, Bloomberg dot Com for is last news letters if 176 00:09:13,160 --> 00:09:14,440 Speaker 3: you want to sign up for a top shelf. 177 00:09:15,240 --> 00:09:17,719 Speaker 2: Now let's bring you more on what to expect from 178 00:09:17,760 --> 00:09:22,000 Speaker 2: this weekend's trade negotiations then between the US and Chinese delegation. 179 00:09:22,080 --> 00:09:26,200 Speaker 2: The US Treasury Secretary and the Chinese Vice Premiere will 180 00:09:26,240 --> 00:09:30,280 Speaker 2: be with their delegations in Switzerland for these talks, and 181 00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:32,920 Speaker 2: our Hong Kong News Desk editor Jill Desis joins us 182 00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:35,320 Speaker 2: now for more on this. Good morning, Jill, So, what 183 00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:39,080 Speaker 2: have we learned then about the American strategy going into 184 00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:39,800 Speaker 2: these talks? 185 00:09:40,080 --> 00:09:41,000 Speaker 1: Well, from what. 186 00:09:40,920 --> 00:09:43,600 Speaker 8: We know from talking with people familiar with preparations for 187 00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:46,120 Speaker 8: these talks is that at least on the US side, 188 00:09:46,240 --> 00:09:49,760 Speaker 8: they've ultimately set a target of reducing tariffs and China 189 00:09:49,800 --> 00:09:52,880 Speaker 8: below sixty percent is sort of a first step. The 190 00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:54,920 Speaker 8: thinking is that this is something that they feel that 191 00:09:55,000 --> 00:09:57,880 Speaker 8: China may be prepared to match. I mean, you know, obviously, 192 00:09:57,920 --> 00:10:01,480 Speaker 8: when you've got tariffs and access undred twenty five forty 193 00:10:01,480 --> 00:10:05,040 Speaker 8: five percent, that's a pretty significant reduction in terms of 194 00:10:05,080 --> 00:10:08,000 Speaker 8: what these two economies have really been throwing each other 195 00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:11,240 Speaker 8: on so far. But I wouldn't go so far as 196 00:10:11,280 --> 00:10:14,520 Speaker 8: to expect anything sort of big and concrete out of 197 00:10:14,520 --> 00:10:17,439 Speaker 8: this weekend at least, you know, obviously when it comes 198 00:10:17,480 --> 00:10:20,640 Speaker 8: to Trump do you never totally know, But what these 199 00:10:20,679 --> 00:10:23,520 Speaker 8: talks at least seem like going into this weekend are 200 00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:27,120 Speaker 8: likely to be more exploratory, more toward geared toward airing 201 00:10:27,160 --> 00:10:30,840 Speaker 8: grievances rather than hammering out long term solutions. I mean, 202 00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:32,560 Speaker 8: you know, we know a couple of months ago, Bessett 203 00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:35,320 Speaker 8: was speaking behind closed door saying it could take a 204 00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:38,640 Speaker 8: couple of years first to reach you know, total sort 205 00:10:38,640 --> 00:10:41,360 Speaker 8: of negotiations on trade. But at least in the short term, 206 00:10:41,360 --> 00:10:44,080 Speaker 8: it does seem like, you know, the US maybe coming 207 00:10:44,120 --> 00:10:46,200 Speaker 8: in with sort of an opening figure. There will have 208 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:50,120 Speaker 8: to see whether that actually results in anything remotely concrete 209 00:10:50,160 --> 00:10:51,079 Speaker 8: coming out of this weekend. 210 00:10:51,440 --> 00:10:53,040 Speaker 3: So that's what we're hearing from the US side. Do 211 00:10:53,080 --> 00:10:55,640 Speaker 3: we have any indications in the Chinese side about what 212 00:10:55,679 --> 00:10:57,920 Speaker 3: they're hoping to achieve or perhaps where there could be 213 00:10:57,920 --> 00:10:59,920 Speaker 3: avenues for negotiation from them. 214 00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:02,959 Speaker 8: Well, I think on the Chinese side that's certainly a 215 00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:05,679 Speaker 8: lot more guarded. I mean, at least what China has 216 00:11:05,760 --> 00:11:08,960 Speaker 8: said openly is that they've actually made a lot of 217 00:11:08,960 --> 00:11:11,720 Speaker 8: this about wanting to reduce the tariffs entirely, which you know, 218 00:11:11,760 --> 00:11:14,160 Speaker 8: I think fair to say that's probably out of the question. 219 00:11:14,240 --> 00:11:16,520 Speaker 8: But you know, China has really framed this is, you know, 220 00:11:16,600 --> 00:11:20,319 Speaker 8: something where they're looking for more respect from the US. 221 00:11:20,440 --> 00:11:24,560 Speaker 8: In terms of what we could actually see on the 222 00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:26,640 Speaker 8: table for discussion, I mean, you know, you can just 223 00:11:26,679 --> 00:11:29,599 Speaker 8: look at some of the major pain points between the 224 00:11:29,720 --> 00:11:33,520 Speaker 8: US and China recently, China's sort of stopping exports of 225 00:11:33,600 --> 00:11:36,240 Speaker 8: rare earth materials, certainly critical for a lot of infrastructure 226 00:11:36,240 --> 00:11:39,400 Speaker 8: and technology. That's maybe something that could be discussed obviously 227 00:11:39,400 --> 00:11:42,839 Speaker 8: on the US side, the fentanyl trade is something that's 228 00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:44,880 Speaker 8: really close to Trump. Maybe that's something that comes up 229 00:11:44,920 --> 00:11:47,160 Speaker 8: for discussion. And then I think, you know, there's sort 230 00:11:47,160 --> 00:11:49,920 Speaker 8: of numerous other avenues that they could really be talking 231 00:11:49,960 --> 00:11:53,280 Speaker 8: about here. You know, maybe advanced technologies trade is kind 232 00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:55,720 Speaker 8: of off the table, but you know, maybe there's something 233 00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:58,959 Speaker 8: more in terms of the aviation sector, maybe some other 234 00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:00,440 Speaker 8: things that they could really kind of come to the 235 00:12:00,480 --> 00:12:03,760 Speaker 8: table discuss. But again, I think really kind of difficult 236 00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:05,680 Speaker 8: to get a lot of insight from that Chinese side 237 00:12:05,760 --> 00:12:06,120 Speaker 8: right now. 238 00:12:07,040 --> 00:12:09,760 Speaker 2: Okay, interesting, and yet we do get an insight into 239 00:12:09,760 --> 00:12:12,840 Speaker 2: what's at state for the Chinese economy the hard data 240 00:12:13,040 --> 00:12:15,400 Speaker 2: out for last month when it comes to inputs and 241 00:12:15,480 --> 00:12:16,440 Speaker 2: exports from China. 242 00:12:17,840 --> 00:12:19,680 Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean I think that you know, it's no 243 00:12:19,880 --> 00:12:23,760 Speaker 8: surprise obviously that when you're effectively, you know, implementing these 244 00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:28,120 Speaker 8: really really really incredibly high tariffs on the world's second 245 00:12:28,200 --> 00:12:30,040 Speaker 8: largest economy and sort of vice versa. I mean, when 246 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:33,240 Speaker 8: you're hampering trade between these two countries, you know, that 247 00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:35,880 Speaker 8: really really sort of takes a hit. I mean, right now, 248 00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:40,120 Speaker 8: I think China earlier this year set a GDP growth 249 00:12:40,120 --> 00:12:41,840 Speaker 8: target of about five percent. 250 00:12:41,600 --> 00:12:42,000 Speaker 1: For this year. 251 00:12:42,000 --> 00:12:44,360 Speaker 8: That's something that they've been you know, sort of targeting 252 00:12:44,360 --> 00:12:47,080 Speaker 8: over the past couple of years, particularly as this really 253 00:12:47,080 --> 00:12:50,800 Speaker 8: massive economy growth starts to slow a little bit. I mean, 254 00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:53,680 Speaker 8: our consensus economic forecast right now on the terminal is 255 00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:57,240 Speaker 8: four point two percent growth, so obviously quite a ways 256 00:12:57,280 --> 00:13:00,600 Speaker 8: off from that GDB target. So we're talking about tariffs 257 00:13:00,640 --> 00:13:03,439 Speaker 8: that really really really impact economic growth in China. I 258 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:06,199 Speaker 8: think you're really seeing that right now, you know, with 259 00:13:06,200 --> 00:13:09,239 Speaker 8: with factories in China, and you know, when the economy, 260 00:13:09,360 --> 00:13:11,959 Speaker 8: when when the government is trying to push more domestic 261 00:13:11,960 --> 00:13:14,199 Speaker 8: consumers within China to spend more to sort of make 262 00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:15,559 Speaker 8: up for this, I think that that's a that's a 263 00:13:15,600 --> 00:13:18,720 Speaker 8: pretty happy task. So certainly I think it Behoo's you know, 264 00:13:18,720 --> 00:13:20,400 Speaker 8: bought the US and China to kind of come to 265 00:13:20,440 --> 00:13:22,600 Speaker 8: the table and try to figure out a way to 266 00:13:22,880 --> 00:13:25,000 Speaker 8: reduce the pain from at least the highest of these 267 00:13:25,240 --> 00:13:26,280 Speaker 8: highest tariffs right now. 268 00:13:26,559 --> 00:13:28,760 Speaker 1: Okay, Jill Lisa so Our Hong Kong News Desk editor, 269 00:13:28,840 --> 00:13:29,920 Speaker 1: thank you. Now. 270 00:13:29,960 --> 00:13:32,720 Speaker 2: Those talks with China came after Donald Trump announced his 271 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:34,760 Speaker 2: first post tariffs trade. 272 00:13:34,480 --> 00:13:35,360 Speaker 1: Deal with the UK. 273 00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:39,280 Speaker 2: The agreement is a framework which gives the US increased 274 00:13:39,320 --> 00:13:42,959 Speaker 2: market access to the UK, whilst British exporters will see 275 00:13:42,960 --> 00:13:48,160 Speaker 2: limited relief on cars, on steal and on other export tariffs. 276 00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:50,800 Speaker 2: Our UK Politics reported, James Wilcock joins is now for 277 00:13:50,880 --> 00:13:53,160 Speaker 2: more on this. Good to have you with us, James. 278 00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:56,280 Speaker 2: So the announcement came with much fan fait. You had 279 00:13:56,480 --> 00:13:59,880 Speaker 2: President charm sitting in the Oval Office just surrounded by 280 00:14:00,080 --> 00:14:04,000 Speaker 2: you know, his top team and Kirstarma dialing in. What 281 00:14:04,080 --> 00:14:06,480 Speaker 2: are the details now that we have them, and what 282 00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:08,600 Speaker 2: can we say in terms of how much good they'll 283 00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:10,319 Speaker 2: do for the British economy. 284 00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:13,640 Speaker 7: I think we can objectively say it's better than if 285 00:14:13,640 --> 00:14:17,360 Speaker 7: there were no deal at all. Now you mentioned cars 286 00:14:17,440 --> 00:14:19,840 Speaker 7: and steel. The tariffs and cars will go to ten 287 00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:22,720 Speaker 7: percent from twenty seven point five up to a quota 288 00:14:22,880 --> 00:14:25,080 Speaker 7: of one hundred thousand cars which is roughly what the 289 00:14:25,120 --> 00:14:28,480 Speaker 7: UK exports anyway, and steel goes from twenty five percent 290 00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:31,200 Speaker 7: to zero. And then in exchange, the UK will offer 291 00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:35,280 Speaker 7: US farmers improved market access, but also without altering its 292 00:14:35,320 --> 00:14:35,920 Speaker 7: food standards. 293 00:14:35,960 --> 00:14:36,840 Speaker 1: That's the key point. 294 00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:39,840 Speaker 7: And also it will remove its tariff on one point 295 00:14:39,880 --> 00:14:42,640 Speaker 7: four billion liters of US ethanol that theoretically could be 296 00:14:42,680 --> 00:14:45,280 Speaker 7: exported to the UK on top of that, there is 297 00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:49,520 Speaker 7: a ten billion dollar deal for Boeing with a US 298 00:14:49,720 --> 00:14:50,720 Speaker 7: UK plane maker. 299 00:14:51,120 --> 00:14:52,280 Speaker 1: Now we are reporting this. 300 00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:56,320 Speaker 7: Morning that UK planemaker is AIG and so that is 301 00:14:56,360 --> 00:14:58,240 Speaker 7: another sort of key part of this, and broadly in 302 00:14:58,320 --> 00:15:00,480 Speaker 7: terms of how we analyze this, I'm going to cit 303 00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:03,800 Speaker 7: Bloomberg Economics and our chief UK economist, Dan Hanson. He 304 00:15:03,880 --> 00:15:07,320 Speaker 7: was saying pre the deal that where there was effectively 305 00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:10,080 Speaker 7: going to be an increased tariff rate on all UK 306 00:15:10,160 --> 00:15:14,280 Speaker 7: exports of just above ten percentage points. Of that, five 307 00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:18,080 Speaker 7: point seven percentage points were the whole shebang sor reciprocal 308 00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:20,840 Speaker 7: tarers to ten percent on all goods, three point seven 309 00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:23,440 Speaker 7: percent percentage points were in the auto sector, and zero 310 00:15:23,440 --> 00:15:26,240 Speaker 7: point eight per cent points were on metals. So we 311 00:15:26,280 --> 00:15:28,880 Speaker 7: are seeing a major reduction in some of the most 312 00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:33,080 Speaker 7: affected sectors here, and in that it's better than it was. However, 313 00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:35,120 Speaker 7: there are still going to be ten percent tarts on 314 00:15:35,120 --> 00:15:37,480 Speaker 7: all UK goods, and they say that in that there 315 00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:39,640 Speaker 7: will still be a hit to UK GDP of n 316 00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:42,000 Speaker 7: zero point two percent from this trade raw down from 317 00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:44,600 Speaker 7: the zero point three percent they had forecast. But their 318 00:15:44,680 --> 00:15:46,480 Speaker 7: conclusion is it's a modest gain. 319 00:15:46,800 --> 00:15:49,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, we'll watch to see how that ID announcement plays 320 00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:52,840 Speaker 3: out as well. What about the unresolved issues in this 321 00:15:52,880 --> 00:15:56,000 Speaker 3: agreement one of the key things to watch from here, James. 322 00:15:55,680 --> 00:15:57,480 Speaker 7: Well, I mean you have to start by saying, Stephen, 323 00:15:57,560 --> 00:15:59,560 Speaker 7: it's not a full fat sort of free trade agreement. 324 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:02,600 Speaker 7: What it does is it takes the most affected sectors 325 00:16:02,600 --> 00:16:05,640 Speaker 7: in both the UK economy steal cars and the most 326 00:16:05,640 --> 00:16:10,680 Speaker 7: affected sectors in the US agriculture, and it ameliorates the 327 00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:13,160 Speaker 7: kind of damage done from this global trade all to 328 00:16:13,320 --> 00:16:17,120 Speaker 7: those So it's both leaders trying to kind of make 329 00:16:17,160 --> 00:16:20,000 Speaker 7: a better deal to improve their domestic kind of audience. 330 00:16:20,400 --> 00:16:23,560 Speaker 7: And so as this goes on, we are going to 331 00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:28,080 Speaker 7: see these negotiations on digital sectors, on various other kind 332 00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:30,640 Speaker 7: of areas of both the UK economy and the US 333 00:16:30,640 --> 00:16:36,000 Speaker 7: economy keep going. At the very least, it's going to 334 00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:38,800 Speaker 7: be many many many months, if not years, before anything 335 00:16:38,840 --> 00:16:41,640 Speaker 7: more solid comes out. But yet you've got to give 336 00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:43,920 Speaker 7: Kirstarmer the sort of agreement that he's the first to 337 00:16:43,960 --> 00:16:45,880 Speaker 7: get any kind of framework over the line. 338 00:16:45,880 --> 00:16:49,400 Speaker 1: Here, this is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe. 339 00:16:49,440 --> 00:16:51,880 Speaker 3: You're a morning brief on the stories making news from 340 00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:53,080 Speaker 3: London to Wall streets. 341 00:16:53,120 --> 00:16:53,720 Speaker 1: And beyond. 342 00:16:54,000 --> 00:16:57,960 Speaker 2: Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on Apple, Spotify, 343 00:16:58,080 --> 00:17:00,000 Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. 344 00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:03,080 Speaker 3: You can also listen live each morning on London Dab Radio, 345 00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:05,840 Speaker 3: the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com. 346 00:17:05,840 --> 00:17:08,640 Speaker 2: Our flagship New York station is also available on your 347 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:13,359 Speaker 2: Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 348 00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:15,640 Speaker 1: I'm Caroline Hepka and I'm Stephen Carol. 349 00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:18,080 Speaker 3: Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you 350 00:17:18,119 --> 00:17:21,040 Speaker 3: need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak 351 00:17:21,040 --> 00:17:25,520 Speaker 3: Europe