1 00:00:01,280 --> 00:00:19,320 Speaker 1: The volume. This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntire. What 2 00:00:19,480 --> 00:00:23,360 Speaker 1: is a straight Fire fan? HiT's me Jason McIntyre. Straight 3 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:29,000 Speaker 1: Fire for Friday, June thirtieth, the end of the month, 4 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:34,839 Speaker 1: July fourth weekend is upon us, folks. NBA Free agency 5 00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:37,239 Speaker 1: is about to happen. We had a bomb drop on 6 00:00:37,560 --> 00:00:40,560 Speaker 1: Thursday afternoon, Holy cal James Harden. We'll get into that shortly. 7 00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:42,839 Speaker 1: And we have a great guest heading into the weekend, 8 00:00:42,880 --> 00:00:47,440 Speaker 1: Warren Sharp Sharp football analysis, really good stuff, some actionable 9 00:00:47,479 --> 00:00:50,200 Speaker 1: gambling advice heading into the holiday weekend. You can listen 10 00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:51,680 Speaker 1: to it while you're on the beach, in the car 11 00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:55,000 Speaker 1: at the lake. Chill axing with the fam. Do people 12 00:00:55,000 --> 00:00:59,160 Speaker 1: still say chill axing? Anyway? A little programming note. I 13 00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:03,240 Speaker 1: will be taking off a few days from the podcast Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, 14 00:01:03,440 --> 00:01:10,880 Speaker 1: back on Thursday. The podcast will return on Thursday, July jeez, 15 00:01:10,959 --> 00:01:15,880 Speaker 1: what is it? Sixth Yeah, Thursday, July sixth and seventh. Obviously, 16 00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:19,080 Speaker 1: I'm sure at that point there will be plenty of 17 00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:23,680 Speaker 1: NBA stuff to chop up. I'm actually hosting the Herd 18 00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:27,720 Speaker 1: solo on Wednesday, July fifth, for those of you who 19 00:01:27,720 --> 00:01:29,360 Speaker 1: want to, you know, put it in your notes or 20 00:01:29,440 --> 00:01:32,040 Speaker 1: pop it in the old calendar. Hey, check out Jason 21 00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:35,920 Speaker 1: hosting the Herd on July fifth, and there's another week 22 00:01:35,920 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 1: in July. I'll be doing it. But we'll get to 23 00:01:37,520 --> 00:01:40,280 Speaker 1: that later, all right, So before we get to warn Sharp, 24 00:01:40,319 --> 00:01:42,640 Speaker 1: just a few minutes on this James Harden stuff. So, 25 00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:45,480 Speaker 1: first of all, the hard And stuff was fascinating. If 26 00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:51,000 Speaker 1: you remember back a mid season, all the talk was, oh, 27 00:01:51,160 --> 00:01:53,400 Speaker 1: James Harden, he's gonna head to Houston. He's gonna head 28 00:01:53,400 --> 00:01:55,760 Speaker 1: to Houston. And then as we got to the end 29 00:01:55,800 --> 00:01:58,520 Speaker 1: of the season in the playoffs, it started to feel like, oh, 30 00:01:58,600 --> 00:02:00,960 Speaker 1: Hardham was just using that as leverage to get what 31 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:05,280 Speaker 1: he wants from the Sixers. Now, after the Nick Nurse, 32 00:02:05,960 --> 00:02:10,200 Speaker 1: Doc Rivers fired, apparently, according to various reports, Harden wanted that, 33 00:02:11,200 --> 00:02:14,919 Speaker 1: and then they hire Nick Nurse, which could not make 34 00:02:14,960 --> 00:02:17,359 Speaker 1: hard And happy. Given Nick Nurse a stance on defense 35 00:02:17,400 --> 00:02:23,880 Speaker 1: and you know, trying hard, it felt like a swing 36 00:02:24,040 --> 00:02:26,959 Speaker 1: after that. Remember, Nurse did not totally embrace James Harden 37 00:02:27,760 --> 00:02:29,840 Speaker 1: about wanting him back. It was kind of a not 38 00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:32,280 Speaker 1: a wishy washy answer, but it wasn't a full throat 39 00:02:32,320 --> 00:02:35,160 Speaker 1: And we need Hardened back here. Blah blah blah. It 40 00:02:35,240 --> 00:02:36,680 Speaker 1: was kind of like, if he wants to come back 41 00:02:36,720 --> 00:02:38,400 Speaker 1: one of those deals. That's how it felt to me. 42 00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:41,760 Speaker 1: Sixers fans feel free to disagree at any rate. WoDES 43 00:02:41,880 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 1: drops the bomb Thursday. Harden is opting in and the 44 00:02:48,480 --> 00:02:52,200 Speaker 1: intent is to trade him. So instead of giving it 45 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:56,839 Speaker 1: one more try with Joel Embiid, James Harden is going 46 00:02:56,880 --> 00:02:59,840 Speaker 1: to be a rented player somewhere for a year and 47 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:03,399 Speaker 1: then he's gonna sign, presumably with Houston next summer because 48 00:03:03,440 --> 00:03:06,680 Speaker 1: that's where we'd love to end up. Here's the weird 49 00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:11,320 Speaker 1: part about this. What's the deal with announcing this on 50 00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:15,200 Speaker 1: June twenty ninth? Did they have potential stuff that fell through? 51 00:03:15,280 --> 00:03:17,160 Speaker 1: And now they're opening it up to the masses? Are 52 00:03:17,200 --> 00:03:21,280 Speaker 1: they close on a deal? And they're saying, here's our flag? 53 00:03:21,320 --> 00:03:24,760 Speaker 1: Putting up a flag? Anybody is their interest in James Harden? 54 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:27,799 Speaker 1: And all of a sudden, every reporter saying the same thing. 55 00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:30,840 Speaker 1: Oh La clippers hardened to the Clippers hardened from La hardened, 56 00:03:30,840 --> 00:03:32,800 Speaker 1: Paul George and Kawhi And I'm like, wait a minute, 57 00:03:32,800 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 1: why is Darryl Morey doing that deal? He's doing a 58 00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:41,360 Speaker 1: Morris twin who they don't even need, and Norm Nixon 59 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:46,400 Speaker 1: for James Harden. You would basically be selling Harden at 60 00:03:46,560 --> 00:03:50,280 Speaker 1: rock bottom. And again, like he put up good playoff numbers, 61 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:53,520 Speaker 1: but he wasn't great. He had a good showing in 62 00:03:53,560 --> 00:03:56,080 Speaker 1: these series against the Celtics in two games. The other 63 00:03:56,120 --> 00:03:58,760 Speaker 1: games he was kind of non existent. Here's what I 64 00:03:58,800 --> 00:04:02,920 Speaker 1: don't get this idea that, oh, well, they can just 65 00:04:03,000 --> 00:04:07,880 Speaker 1: reroute Morris to Washington, and Washington can throw something in 66 00:04:07,920 --> 00:04:12,480 Speaker 1: the deal and we can just figure out a third team. Like, wait, aute, 67 00:04:12,480 --> 00:04:16,679 Speaker 1: why is Darryl Mory doing this? If anything, Darryl Mory's 68 00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:19,760 Speaker 1: going to demand Paul George Clippers probably won't do that. 69 00:04:19,880 --> 00:04:23,640 Speaker 1: But why am I taking spare parts for James Harden, 70 00:04:23,680 --> 00:04:26,000 Speaker 1: who's still like a top thirty player in the league. 71 00:04:26,000 --> 00:04:28,400 Speaker 1: I don't know if he's topped twenty five. I don't 72 00:04:28,400 --> 00:04:31,839 Speaker 1: think he's better than Jalen Brunson at this stage in 73 00:04:31,880 --> 00:04:34,280 Speaker 1: his career. The tread on those tires, like Harden's been 74 00:04:34,279 --> 00:04:37,560 Speaker 1: around the block and he just he's a step slower 75 00:04:37,560 --> 00:04:39,359 Speaker 1: than he was like three years ago. Can he be 76 00:04:39,440 --> 00:04:41,720 Speaker 1: your third best player on our title contenter? 77 00:04:41,800 --> 00:04:42,040 Speaker 2: Sure? 78 00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:45,360 Speaker 1: If you team him up with Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. Yeah, 79 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:47,760 Speaker 1: there's something there, But what is Daryl Morey doing handing 80 00:04:47,760 --> 00:04:51,320 Speaker 1: the Clippers a great roster like that? That does not 81 00:04:51,400 --> 00:04:54,920 Speaker 1: add up at all to me. This is all like 82 00:04:55,080 --> 00:04:57,640 Speaker 1: a smoke screen. The problem is I can't find the 83 00:04:57,720 --> 00:05:03,360 Speaker 1: landing spot for Harden. Nothing makes sense. So sure, Philly 84 00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:06,800 Speaker 1: would love to get Damian Lillard. Why would Portland rent 85 00:05:06,839 --> 00:05:09,240 Speaker 1: a point guard when they got Anthony Simon's shade and 86 00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:12,000 Speaker 1: Sharp and Scoot Henderson. Why are they renting James Harden 87 00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:14,120 Speaker 1: for half a year and then maybe they want flip 88 00:05:14,160 --> 00:05:16,240 Speaker 1: him at the deadline to a contender. Like it doesn't 89 00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:19,520 Speaker 1: seem to there's nothing there, And you're like, oh, just 90 00:05:19,560 --> 00:05:21,919 Speaker 1: get a third team involved to send herd Okay, who's 91 00:05:21,920 --> 00:05:24,680 Speaker 1: that third team? Who needs a point guard? 92 00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:26,560 Speaker 2: And I go, you go up. 93 00:05:26,520 --> 00:05:29,560 Speaker 1: And down the list. I'm like, I don't really see 94 00:05:29,560 --> 00:05:34,240 Speaker 1: a spot for Harden, Like, sure the Rockets could take him, 95 00:05:34,279 --> 00:05:37,000 Speaker 1: but do they want to They got a bunch of 96 00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:42,400 Speaker 1: guards Milwaukee, Like, for what are we You're swapping with 97 00:05:42,440 --> 00:05:45,320 Speaker 1: a team in the Eastern Conference? So what Harden and 98 00:05:45,480 --> 00:05:47,320 Speaker 1: Giannis are gonna team up with Drew Holliday and You're 99 00:05:47,360 --> 00:05:50,840 Speaker 1: just gonna let them beat you into submission. So, like, 100 00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:53,680 Speaker 1: I don't nothing in the East makes sense to me. 101 00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:56,800 Speaker 1: Does Miami roll the dice on James Harden with heat 102 00:05:56,839 --> 00:06:02,800 Speaker 1: culture James Harden, Jimy Butler and bam Adebayo? Like that's spicy? 103 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:06,120 Speaker 1: But why is Miami bringing on Harden as a rental 104 00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:10,839 Speaker 1: for one year? If something doesn't add up here clearly? 105 00:06:10,920 --> 00:06:13,720 Speaker 1: Like you could go through the contenders Denver, no, Memphis, 106 00:06:13,839 --> 00:06:15,760 Speaker 1: I don't see it. They just brought out Marcus Smart, 107 00:06:15,839 --> 00:06:19,160 Speaker 1: John Moran's coming back after twenty five games. Sacramento absolutely 108 00:06:19,200 --> 00:06:24,120 Speaker 1: not Phoenix. I don't know. I think it can afford 109 00:06:24,120 --> 00:06:28,599 Speaker 1: bal kd Booker. Oh oh, DeAndre Aiden? Okay, you're gonna 110 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:30,600 Speaker 1: find a third team for Aighton because Philly don't want 111 00:06:30,600 --> 00:06:34,120 Speaker 1: DeAndre Ayton Philly. And don't say Washington is the third 112 00:06:34,160 --> 00:06:36,599 Speaker 1: team because Washington could have had Ayton and the Chris 113 00:06:36,600 --> 00:06:40,359 Speaker 1: Paul deal didn't want him. Okay, So now you're like Warriors, 114 00:06:40,360 --> 00:06:45,920 Speaker 1: no shot, Lakers. I don't know. Are the Lakers parting 115 00:06:45,920 --> 00:06:50,120 Speaker 1: with Austin Reeves for James Harden? That doesn't seem right. 116 00:06:50,240 --> 00:06:53,360 Speaker 1: Harden is so bald dominant. I go through all my notes, 117 00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:57,520 Speaker 1: and I had the James Harden. I don't know if 118 00:06:57,520 --> 00:07:01,120 Speaker 1: it was in one series or maybe it was like 119 00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:03,400 Speaker 1: a couple of games in a series of a couple of 120 00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:06,080 Speaker 1: pivotal games. But I had James Harden's six hundred dribbles. 121 00:07:07,000 --> 00:07:08,560 Speaker 1: I don't know it was from a few years ago, 122 00:07:08,600 --> 00:07:10,080 Speaker 1: but I saw it and I was like, geez, that's 123 00:07:10,080 --> 00:07:12,000 Speaker 1: the kind of player he is. Okay, let's keep going. 124 00:07:12,480 --> 00:07:18,320 Speaker 1: Does Minnesota have an appetite for James Harden? Well, Sixers 125 00:07:18,320 --> 00:07:20,920 Speaker 1: don't want Gobert. Sixers would gladly take Carl Anthony Towns. 126 00:07:20,920 --> 00:07:25,239 Speaker 1: But goodness gracious, is Minnesota doing that deal? Okay? See, 127 00:07:25,280 --> 00:07:28,160 Speaker 1: I don't see him going back to Okay, see New Orleans. 128 00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:31,920 Speaker 1: Maybe there's something with the Pelicans. Do they say, you 129 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:34,240 Speaker 1: know what, Zion's going to be healthy, Let's get James 130 00:07:34,280 --> 00:07:38,239 Speaker 1: Harden in there. We don't truly have a point guard. 131 00:07:39,640 --> 00:07:43,640 Speaker 1: And maybe there's something with Dallas. You know, Kyrie Irving 132 00:07:44,600 --> 00:07:47,120 Speaker 1: is getting all wishy washy. He don't want the four years. 133 00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:52,679 Speaker 1: I mean, he wants the four years, but it's pretty 134 00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:54,240 Speaker 1: clear Dallas doesn't want to give him the four So 135 00:07:54,360 --> 00:07:56,920 Speaker 1: that's why he's meeting with the Phoenix Suns. That's why 136 00:07:57,040 --> 00:08:00,000 Speaker 1: Kyrie Irving's being linked to the Lakers like he wants. 137 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:02,560 Speaker 1: It's a four year deal and it's pretty clear that 138 00:08:02,640 --> 00:08:04,880 Speaker 1: Dallas doesn't want to give him one. Now, is this 139 00:08:05,360 --> 00:08:08,400 Speaker 1: moderately interesting James Harden for Kyrie Irving? Well, I don't 140 00:08:08,400 --> 00:08:10,360 Speaker 1: think Philly wants to get in the Kyrie Irving business. 141 00:08:11,600 --> 00:08:14,680 Speaker 1: And what's Luca doing renting James Harden for a year. 142 00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:16,640 Speaker 1: But it does clear up cap space. I guess you 143 00:08:16,640 --> 00:08:19,680 Speaker 1: could say it's just done. Nothing makes nothing adds up 144 00:08:19,680 --> 00:08:22,640 Speaker 1: with James Harden, folks. But let me quickly drill down 145 00:08:22,640 --> 00:08:25,560 Speaker 1: on the Peblicans for a second, because currently, you know, 146 00:08:25,720 --> 00:08:30,960 Speaker 1: their backcourt is c. J. McCollum, Dyson Daniels, Kira Lewis, 147 00:08:31,440 --> 00:08:36,240 Speaker 1: Trey Murphy, Jordan Hawkins. There's a window there for a 148 00:08:36,240 --> 00:08:39,280 Speaker 1: point guard, you know. Just do they roll the dice 149 00:08:39,280 --> 00:08:42,720 Speaker 1: and say, you know what, we're going all in. We're 150 00:08:42,720 --> 00:08:45,800 Speaker 1: gonna get Zion Williamson healthy, We're gonna get James Harden, 151 00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:48,800 Speaker 1: James Harden, Zion pick and roll. Holy hell, that's nasty. 152 00:08:49,120 --> 00:08:52,280 Speaker 1: And we keep brandon Ingram. Well, what are the uh, 153 00:08:52,840 --> 00:08:55,160 Speaker 1: what are the Sixers getting back? Well, Trey Murphy has 154 00:08:55,400 --> 00:08:57,160 Speaker 1: is definitely gonna have a market. He is a very 155 00:08:57,160 --> 00:09:00,800 Speaker 1: good young player. Larry Nance might be the ideal big 156 00:09:00,880 --> 00:09:03,760 Speaker 1: to play alongside Embiid because he gets to do the 157 00:09:03,800 --> 00:09:07,240 Speaker 1: dirty work and bid gets, you know, maybe a little 158 00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:10,760 Speaker 1: lesson of a defensive assignment. He's got his MVP Nancy. 159 00:09:10,800 --> 00:09:14,160 Speaker 1: It's minutes. I don't know. Is there a world where 160 00:09:14,160 --> 00:09:16,240 Speaker 1: there's some kind of trade with the Pelicans. It's in 161 00:09:16,240 --> 00:09:19,640 Speaker 1: the Western Conference. The Pelicans would love to take a 162 00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:22,720 Speaker 1: shot and swim for the fences here. I don't know, 163 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:24,800 Speaker 1: Pelicans seem to jump out. I just none of this 164 00:09:24,800 --> 00:09:27,240 Speaker 1: Clipper stuff makes sense. We shall see what the hell 165 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:30,920 Speaker 1: happens with James Harden, but the NBA stays interesting. But 166 00:09:30,960 --> 00:09:33,600 Speaker 1: for now, we're gonna go to the holiday weekend with 167 00:09:33,679 --> 00:09:36,560 Speaker 1: a deep dive into the NFL with the great Warren 168 00:09:36,640 --> 00:09:41,120 Speaker 1: Sharp of sharp football analysis. All right, let's welcome into 169 00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:44,199 Speaker 1: straight fire one of the foremost football what do we 170 00:09:44,240 --> 00:09:47,440 Speaker 1: call him now? Gambling guy, fantasy guy, numbers guy. He 171 00:09:47,520 --> 00:09:50,320 Speaker 1: does it all. He's got his great twenty twenty three 172 00:09:50,400 --> 00:09:54,080 Speaker 1: NFL preview coming out shortly. It's obviously invaluable. I used 173 00:09:54,080 --> 00:09:57,120 Speaker 1: the twenty twenty two version last year, and I had 174 00:09:57,120 --> 00:10:00,720 Speaker 1: a pretty good season in fantasy and in gambling. Warren Sharp, 175 00:10:00,760 --> 00:10:01,440 Speaker 1: how are you man? 176 00:10:01,840 --> 00:10:06,040 Speaker 3: Well, I'll be better, Jason in about four days, five days. 177 00:10:06,520 --> 00:10:09,360 Speaker 3: It's just it's just burning the ends of both both 178 00:10:09,480 --> 00:10:12,040 Speaker 3: ends of the candle here for the next you know, 179 00:10:12,200 --> 00:10:14,240 Speaker 3: five days until we get this thing done. I've been 180 00:10:14,280 --> 00:10:17,280 Speaker 3: working on it now for three months. But as you know, 181 00:10:17,320 --> 00:10:20,760 Speaker 3: with any big project, as it's about to launch, you 182 00:10:20,960 --> 00:10:23,120 Speaker 3: just like the end is the worst. The end is 183 00:10:23,160 --> 00:10:24,880 Speaker 3: the worst. You think you get over the hurdles, but 184 00:10:24,920 --> 00:10:28,200 Speaker 3: the end is always the worst. And I get to 185 00:10:28,240 --> 00:10:30,720 Speaker 3: the point where I love researching the teams, but I've 186 00:10:30,760 --> 00:10:31,960 Speaker 3: already researched all of them. 187 00:10:32,000 --> 00:10:33,360 Speaker 2: I've already written up a lot. 188 00:10:33,559 --> 00:10:36,559 Speaker 3: Now it's just the book assembly, which is very monotonous, 189 00:10:36,840 --> 00:10:41,000 Speaker 3: and frankly, I'm just just at wits end, to be 190 00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:45,680 Speaker 3: honest with you. But certainly, my my strategy always is 191 00:10:45,920 --> 00:10:49,160 Speaker 3: get the book out there, publish the book, go spend 192 00:10:49,200 --> 00:10:50,400 Speaker 3: a couple of weeks at the beach. 193 00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:51,760 Speaker 2: And so that's what I'm going. 194 00:10:51,600 --> 00:10:54,280 Speaker 3: To do this year, and and and get back into 195 00:10:54,360 --> 00:10:56,920 Speaker 3: some good, good mood, good spirits and everything like that. 196 00:10:57,400 --> 00:10:57,600 Speaker 2: You know. 197 00:10:57,640 --> 00:10:59,720 Speaker 1: I don't want to be the bearer of crummy news. 198 00:10:59,760 --> 00:11:01,720 Speaker 1: But four days to go and we still got some 199 00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:05,280 Speaker 1: pretty big names not signed yet. DeAndre Hopkins, I would 200 00:11:05,280 --> 00:11:07,040 Speaker 1: count Kareem Hunt in there. I think he can be 201 00:11:07,160 --> 00:11:11,319 Speaker 1: a shifty addition to a backfield Zeke Elliott, who else 202 00:11:11,400 --> 00:11:13,720 Speaker 1: Dalvin Cook? Like, what will you do if they're not 203 00:11:13,920 --> 00:11:15,440 Speaker 1: signed by you know, July fourth? 204 00:11:16,320 --> 00:11:18,720 Speaker 3: So I mean we're planning to publish on July fifth, 205 00:11:18,840 --> 00:11:21,120 Speaker 3: and kind of is what it is now. We can 206 00:11:21,160 --> 00:11:23,880 Speaker 3: go back and edit if there is something major that changes, 207 00:11:23,920 --> 00:11:28,480 Speaker 3: For example, Dalvin Cook goes somewhere, becomes the starter and 208 00:11:28,679 --> 00:11:31,360 Speaker 3: supplants somebody else who was going to have a little 209 00:11:31,360 --> 00:11:34,640 Speaker 3: bit more of a backup type role. Then we would 210 00:11:34,640 --> 00:11:38,280 Speaker 3: certainly get Rich Riebar, who's our fantasy analyst, maybe Ray 211 00:11:38,400 --> 00:11:40,760 Speaker 3: who's one of our other fantasy analysts, to write a 212 00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:43,360 Speaker 3: little bit about that and maybe offer some type of 213 00:11:43,400 --> 00:11:46,680 Speaker 3: an appendix that would go to everybody who purchased the 214 00:11:46,679 --> 00:11:51,080 Speaker 3: book already to discuss the relevance of that particular move. 215 00:11:51,200 --> 00:11:55,000 Speaker 3: So I think we would definitely account for somebody like that. 216 00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:57,679 Speaker 3: But I mean, we have our schedules, we have our 217 00:11:57,760 --> 00:12:00,640 Speaker 3: dates we have to hit and and you know, if 218 00:12:00,640 --> 00:12:03,800 Speaker 3: something happens after that kind of kind of out of 219 00:12:03,800 --> 00:12:04,360 Speaker 3: our hands. 220 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:07,400 Speaker 1: At that point, it does feel kind of weird. Those 221 00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:11,880 Speaker 1: are four fairly big name guys, especially Dalvin Cook. But 222 00:12:11,880 --> 00:12:14,880 Speaker 1: I want to start with Hopkins, who you know, Cardinals 223 00:12:14,880 --> 00:12:17,000 Speaker 1: could not find a taker for his contract, so they 224 00:12:17,040 --> 00:12:18,880 Speaker 1: just had to cut him. And all of a sudden, 225 00:12:18,880 --> 00:12:21,080 Speaker 1: everybody's like, oh, DeAndre Hopkins could be a game changer, 226 00:12:21,120 --> 00:12:23,559 Speaker 1: and it's like, does anybody want him? The Titans and 227 00:12:23,600 --> 00:12:25,840 Speaker 1: the Patriots are the only ones to show interest, and 228 00:12:25,880 --> 00:12:29,040 Speaker 1: here we are, what two weeks in and allegedly there's 229 00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:31,760 Speaker 1: an offer, but he hasn't signed anything. I'm a little 230 00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:34,199 Speaker 1: surprised by this. I know the work ethic has been questioned, 231 00:12:34,200 --> 00:12:36,720 Speaker 1: but the Patriots seemed to be the front runner. Warren, 232 00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:38,080 Speaker 1: I got to ask you, though, what the hell are 233 00:12:38,120 --> 00:12:41,360 Speaker 1: the Patriots doing? They signed DeVante Parker to a deal, 234 00:12:41,720 --> 00:12:44,640 Speaker 1: and you instantly just destroy them on social media for 235 00:12:44,720 --> 00:12:48,719 Speaker 1: the for his inability to separate. They got Jujus to 236 00:12:48,760 --> 00:12:51,320 Speaker 1: a shuster. Everybody considers that an overpay. I don't know, 237 00:12:51,360 --> 00:12:53,800 Speaker 1: does Hopkins even help them. I'm not a mac Jones guy. 238 00:12:54,120 --> 00:12:55,839 Speaker 1: I think their win total is the lowest in the 239 00:12:55,880 --> 00:12:57,880 Speaker 1: AFC East. What are we to make of the Patriots here? 240 00:12:58,679 --> 00:13:00,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, so there's a couple of ways to attack this. First, 241 00:13:00,840 --> 00:13:03,559 Speaker 3: we could talk about, you know, their current receiving corps. 242 00:13:03,840 --> 00:13:06,880 Speaker 3: Obviously I didn't like the move to re sign DeVante 243 00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:09,480 Speaker 3: Parker to that new deal. He's ranked dead last and 244 00:13:09,480 --> 00:13:12,360 Speaker 3: wide receiver separation for three straight years, as you alluded to, 245 00:13:12,559 --> 00:13:14,800 Speaker 3: which is like pretty hard to do. We're talking, We're 246 00:13:14,840 --> 00:13:17,640 Speaker 3: not saying like, over the last three years, he is 247 00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:19,880 Speaker 3: the worst every single year. And there's like over one 248 00:13:19,960 --> 00:13:22,560 Speaker 3: hundred and twenty players each year that are measured that 249 00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:25,920 Speaker 3: have enough targets that get tracked by next gen stats, 250 00:13:25,960 --> 00:13:29,240 Speaker 3: the chips in the shoulder pads. He is dead last 251 00:13:29,280 --> 00:13:33,120 Speaker 3: consistently every single year, A very difficult feat to pull off. Now, 252 00:13:33,280 --> 00:13:35,120 Speaker 3: some people might say, well that doesn't matter as much. 253 00:13:35,240 --> 00:13:38,000 Speaker 3: Ride receiver separation isn't quite as big of a deal. 254 00:13:38,320 --> 00:13:38,840 Speaker 2: Think about this. 255 00:13:38,880 --> 00:13:41,480 Speaker 3: When you're a young quarterback and you're taught to, you know, 256 00:13:42,120 --> 00:13:44,320 Speaker 3: go through your reads, go through your progressions, try to 257 00:13:44,320 --> 00:13:46,920 Speaker 3: find the guy who's open. You're trying to find guys 258 00:13:46,960 --> 00:13:49,800 Speaker 3: who are literally open. That's the difference between college and 259 00:13:49,840 --> 00:13:51,840 Speaker 3: pro college guys at Alabama Mac Jones. 260 00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:54,120 Speaker 2: His guys were getting open left and right all the time. 261 00:13:54,280 --> 00:13:56,120 Speaker 3: Now it gets to the pro level, he has to 262 00:13:56,120 --> 00:13:58,160 Speaker 3: go through his progressions all of a sudden. One of 263 00:13:58,160 --> 00:14:00,240 Speaker 3: his main guys is number one, is a guy who 264 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:03,280 Speaker 3: doesn't uncover at all. And so what was happening is 265 00:14:03,880 --> 00:14:06,760 Speaker 3: eventually he was just chucking the ball to Parker no 266 00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:09,079 Speaker 3: matter what, like if he's open or covered, it doesn't 267 00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:10,839 Speaker 3: matter the coaches will, you got to throw it up. 268 00:14:11,320 --> 00:14:14,280 Speaker 3: And he threw four interceptions and only I want to 269 00:14:14,280 --> 00:14:17,120 Speaker 3: say it was like thirty four targets to Parker. That 270 00:14:17,240 --> 00:14:20,080 Speaker 3: was like eleven point six or eight percent. That was 271 00:14:20,160 --> 00:14:23,520 Speaker 3: the most of any wide receiver quarterback combo in the 272 00:14:23,640 --> 00:14:26,520 Speaker 3: NFL last year. So you know it just and we 273 00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:30,160 Speaker 3: know it's much more of a hindrance to throw an 274 00:14:30,240 --> 00:14:32,600 Speaker 3: interception than it is to gain any type of completion. 275 00:14:32,720 --> 00:14:34,960 Speaker 3: Those things flicked the game entirely, so you do not 276 00:14:35,040 --> 00:14:37,240 Speaker 3: want to be throwing interceptions. One of the reasons why 277 00:14:37,360 --> 00:14:40,280 Speaker 3: you could like Patrick Mahomes and how they got Josh Allen. 278 00:14:40,040 --> 00:14:41,720 Speaker 2: To perform a little bit a bit better. 279 00:14:41,920 --> 00:14:44,360 Speaker 3: They brought in guys that can get open quickly off 280 00:14:44,400 --> 00:14:47,200 Speaker 3: the line of scrimmage. It's not these big, tall guys 281 00:14:47,200 --> 00:14:49,240 Speaker 3: that can get down the field and out jump other 282 00:14:49,280 --> 00:14:51,080 Speaker 3: people that we don't want to be throwing fifty to 283 00:14:51,080 --> 00:14:52,280 Speaker 3: fifty balls up too much. 284 00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:54,080 Speaker 2: So I don't love that. 285 00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:57,560 Speaker 3: In terms of the Patriots in general, I think one 286 00:14:57,600 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 3: of the things that I cover in the Patriots chapter 287 00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:03,080 Speaker 3: in the book, and each team, I spend several days 288 00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:08,080 Speaker 3: researching and writing and analyzing, and it just shocked me again, 289 00:15:08,200 --> 00:15:09,920 Speaker 3: like going back and looking at it because I had 290 00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:14,480 Speaker 3: done all this analysis previously, just how terrible Matt Patricia was, 291 00:15:14,760 --> 00:15:17,960 Speaker 3: like just the worst in the NFL, one of the 292 00:15:17,960 --> 00:15:19,600 Speaker 3: worst in the NFL, because there was a few that 293 00:15:19,680 --> 00:15:21,720 Speaker 3: was just like continues to mind bogging you. 294 00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:23,520 Speaker 2: But with Matt Patricia, Okay. 295 00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:25,160 Speaker 3: One of the things that was just so odd is 296 00:15:25,480 --> 00:15:28,480 Speaker 3: mac Jones was one of the better quarterbacks in the 297 00:15:28,600 --> 00:15:33,200 Speaker 3: NFL at using play action. Throwing the football with play action, 298 00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:35,840 Speaker 3: he was one of the best in the NFL. His 299 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:39,280 Speaker 3: improvement over not using. 300 00:15:39,040 --> 00:15:40,480 Speaker 2: Play action was the best. 301 00:15:40,520 --> 00:15:43,000 Speaker 3: The leap that he took when he used play action 302 00:15:43,120 --> 00:15:46,080 Speaker 3: versus not using play action was the best in the NFL. 303 00:15:46,320 --> 00:15:48,960 Speaker 3: And yet the Patriots used it at the third lowest 304 00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:51,480 Speaker 3: rate of any team in the league. It made no 305 00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:53,880 Speaker 3: sense that I went through in the book on almost 306 00:15:53,920 --> 00:15:56,000 Speaker 3: like a week by week basis and looked at the 307 00:15:56,080 --> 00:15:58,400 Speaker 3: first few weeks, then he got injured, then he comes back, 308 00:15:58,480 --> 00:16:00,520 Speaker 3: then it's a bye. Will they learn something, No, they 309 00:16:00,520 --> 00:16:02,800 Speaker 3: don't learn anything. Coming out of the by mac Jones 310 00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:05,040 Speaker 3: spoke to the media said he would like to use 311 00:16:05,080 --> 00:16:08,480 Speaker 3: more play action. Do they not really? And so throughout 312 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:11,080 Speaker 3: the course of the season, it was probably very frustrating 313 00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:13,280 Speaker 3: if Patriots fans were picking up on this. I was 314 00:16:13,480 --> 00:16:16,680 Speaker 3: sharing some of these tidbits during the season. That certainly 315 00:16:16,720 --> 00:16:19,080 Speaker 3: is going to change with Bill O'Brien, in my opinion. 316 00:16:19,160 --> 00:16:22,480 Speaker 3: Another thing that Matt Patricia just insisted on doing far 317 00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:26,800 Speaker 3: too much is designing offensive plays for mac Jones, where 318 00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:29,520 Speaker 3: he was throwing the football behind the line of scrimmage. 319 00:16:29,960 --> 00:16:33,440 Speaker 3: Over twenty nine percent of their passes on early downs 320 00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:36,360 Speaker 3: went behind the line of scrimmage. That was the sixth 321 00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:39,720 Speaker 3: highest rate in the NFL. So we're not talking about, oh, 322 00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:41,680 Speaker 3: it's third down, I'm going to take a sack, let 323 00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:43,520 Speaker 3: me just dump it off to somebody. We're not talking 324 00:16:43,560 --> 00:16:46,920 Speaker 3: about these types of checkdowns that will save the offense. 325 00:16:46,920 --> 00:16:50,240 Speaker 3: We're talking about designed plays where he wasn't holding onto 326 00:16:50,280 --> 00:16:52,280 Speaker 3: the ball very long. It was part of the offense. 327 00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:54,320 Speaker 3: He was supposed to throw the ball short behind the 328 00:16:54,360 --> 00:16:56,440 Speaker 3: line of scrimmage, and they were doing it at the 329 00:16:56,480 --> 00:17:00,320 Speaker 3: sixth highest rate, and these passes were absolutely horrendous. If 330 00:17:00,400 --> 00:17:02,280 Speaker 3: this was one of the teams that I was actually 331 00:17:02,280 --> 00:17:05,000 Speaker 3: working with, I would be looking at what are the 332 00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:07,640 Speaker 3: splits here? If he throws beyond the line of scrimmage 333 00:17:07,720 --> 00:17:10,680 Speaker 3: versus short of it, how much better does he get? 334 00:17:10,760 --> 00:17:13,080 Speaker 3: And it would have been clear that we've got to 335 00:17:13,119 --> 00:17:16,080 Speaker 3: get these passes out of the game now. During the 336 00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:18,679 Speaker 3: course of the season, j mack I loved it because 337 00:17:18,760 --> 00:17:22,159 Speaker 3: I just kept betting Remindra Stevenson receptions over until it 338 00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:24,239 Speaker 3: got ludicrous. You know, that's a way that you can 339 00:17:24,320 --> 00:17:26,440 Speaker 3: capitalize on, Like, I can't believe they're so dumb to 340 00:17:26,520 --> 00:17:28,680 Speaker 3: keep throwing the ball to this guy behind the line 341 00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:31,600 Speaker 3: of scrimmage. These passes aren't accomplishing anything, but hey, maybe 342 00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:35,240 Speaker 3: we could profit on it by betting his receiving receptions 343 00:17:35,280 --> 00:17:38,440 Speaker 3: over each week, And that was a successful prop bet, 344 00:17:38,560 --> 00:17:41,240 Speaker 3: But those I hope will get pushed to the side 345 00:17:41,280 --> 00:17:44,879 Speaker 3: as well. So the bottom line is Bill O'Brien versus 346 00:17:44,920 --> 00:17:48,840 Speaker 3: Matt Patricia. As much as I don't like kind of 347 00:17:48,840 --> 00:17:52,159 Speaker 3: where the Patriots sit in the hierarchy of the AFC East, 348 00:17:52,480 --> 00:17:55,120 Speaker 3: I do think that's going to be a measurable difference 349 00:17:55,160 --> 00:17:57,840 Speaker 3: for this offense and definitely is going to improve them 350 00:17:57,880 --> 00:18:01,520 Speaker 3: just getting Bill O'Brien a rational play caller, a guy 351 00:18:01,560 --> 00:18:04,560 Speaker 3: who can understand what is working and what's not working 352 00:18:04,800 --> 00:18:07,840 Speaker 3: better than Matt Patricia and get Patricia out the door. 353 00:18:08,480 --> 00:18:11,440 Speaker 1: Are you expecting more two tight end sets with Giseki 354 00:18:11,520 --> 00:18:13,960 Speaker 1: and Hunter Henry and then maybe more running next year 355 00:18:13,960 --> 00:18:15,560 Speaker 1: from the Pats Patrick. 356 00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:16,160 Speaker 2: I hope. 357 00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:20,040 Speaker 3: So it's spent several years now. This is you kind 358 00:18:20,040 --> 00:18:22,119 Speaker 3: of alluded to this at the top, that the Patriots 359 00:18:22,119 --> 00:18:24,359 Speaker 3: have been sort of spiraling out of control since Brady 360 00:18:24,440 --> 00:18:28,359 Speaker 3: left to some extent. And the problem is that once 361 00:18:28,440 --> 00:18:30,760 Speaker 3: Brady won that Super Bowl down in Tampa Bay, Bill 362 00:18:30,800 --> 00:18:33,480 Speaker 3: Belichick just what berserk in his mind, and that's when 363 00:18:33,520 --> 00:18:35,480 Speaker 3: he spent like, what was it, three hundred and twenty 364 00:18:35,760 --> 00:18:38,480 Speaker 3: million dollars in free agency one year, like something that 365 00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:41,080 Speaker 3: this team never does, way out spent any team in 366 00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:42,040 Speaker 3: NFL history. 367 00:18:42,240 --> 00:18:42,959 Speaker 2: And what do they do? 368 00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:45,920 Speaker 3: They go in and literally at the legal tampering period. 369 00:18:45,920 --> 00:18:48,119 Speaker 3: As soon as that opens, they go in sign Johnny 370 00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:51,040 Speaker 3: Smith and then they go and get Hunter Henry. It's like, Okay, 371 00:18:51,119 --> 00:18:53,119 Speaker 3: they got these two tight ends, we're going to go 372 00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:55,240 Speaker 3: back to. Maybe is like the Gronk and Aaron Hernandez 373 00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:57,480 Speaker 3: style of offense here with these two guys as like our 374 00:18:57,480 --> 00:19:01,560 Speaker 3: top two receivers. And then first it was it was 375 00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:04,800 Speaker 3: Josh McDaniels, and then last year it was Matt Patricia 376 00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:07,520 Speaker 3: and neither of them had any clue how to use 377 00:19:07,560 --> 00:19:10,080 Speaker 3: two tight ends, specifically john new Smith, what to do 378 00:19:10,160 --> 00:19:11,880 Speaker 3: with him, how to get him on the field. And 379 00:19:11,920 --> 00:19:14,480 Speaker 3: you're right, the splits were different. When they were using 380 00:19:14,560 --> 00:19:17,160 Speaker 3: eleven personnel to throw the ball on early downs versus 381 00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:19,760 Speaker 3: twelve personnel, they had more success when they had those 382 00:19:19,800 --> 00:19:21,520 Speaker 3: two tight ends out on the field. They could use 383 00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:24,040 Speaker 3: a little bit more play action, but they just refuse 384 00:19:24,160 --> 00:19:27,000 Speaker 3: to do that. So I hope, I don't know, but 385 00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:29,800 Speaker 3: I hope that they will go out and utilize more 386 00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:32,920 Speaker 3: two tight end sets. Now I can almost assure you. However, 387 00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:37,520 Speaker 3: if they paid Devonte Parker and they signed Juju Smith Schuster, 388 00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:40,520 Speaker 3: and then if they go get DeAndre Hopkins, like throw 389 00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:42,760 Speaker 3: that idea out the door. This team's going to be 390 00:19:42,800 --> 00:19:46,040 Speaker 3: eleven personnel heavy. But if they don't get DeAndre Hopkins, 391 00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:49,119 Speaker 3: this is a team that two years ago, last year, 392 00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:52,440 Speaker 3: and this year should be using a lot of twelve personnel. 393 00:19:52,520 --> 00:19:54,320 Speaker 2: Whether they opened their eyes to that or not to 394 00:19:54,400 --> 00:19:55,000 Speaker 2: be determined. 395 00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:58,359 Speaker 1: One of the big things Warren't I look at when 396 00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:01,880 Speaker 1: I'm breaking down teams in the offseason is the coordinator move. 397 00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:03,600 Speaker 1: I think it might have been you last year who 398 00:20:03,720 --> 00:20:06,640 Speaker 1: came on here and was talking about Brian Dable going 399 00:20:06,720 --> 00:20:08,560 Speaker 1: to the Giants. How much of a game changer that was. 400 00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:11,920 Speaker 1: They upgraded their defensive coordinator. Boom they get to the playoffs. 401 00:20:13,080 --> 00:20:15,400 Speaker 1: I do have a question about the Cowboys going from 402 00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:19,040 Speaker 1: Kellen Moore, who I thought was pretty good to Brian Schottenheimer, 403 00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:21,720 Speaker 1: who I know from the Jets way back. I've never 404 00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:24,080 Speaker 1: been a fan of Schottenheimer. I'm just curious. No Zeke 405 00:20:25,600 --> 00:20:27,680 Speaker 1: Schottenheimer comes in, you know he's gonna want to run 406 00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:30,280 Speaker 1: the ball more. McCarthy wants to run and play defense. 407 00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:33,480 Speaker 1: The defense is loaded. What are we expecting any big 408 00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:35,240 Speaker 1: changes here offensively in Dallas? 409 00:20:35,760 --> 00:20:37,680 Speaker 3: I don't think there's going to be very many. The 410 00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:40,960 Speaker 3: main thing is going to be the amount of runs 411 00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:42,679 Speaker 3: that we're going to get, and I actually don't know 412 00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:45,240 Speaker 3: if that's going to be Brian Schott Nimer, I believe, 413 00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:47,600 Speaker 3: and I need to spend a little bit more time 414 00:20:47,640 --> 00:20:51,639 Speaker 3: this offseason getting a handle on who's actually going to 415 00:20:51,640 --> 00:20:54,359 Speaker 3: be the most involved with the play calling, but my 416 00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:58,960 Speaker 3: current estimation is that it's mainly going to be Mike McCarthy. 417 00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:03,200 Speaker 3: He's the one. He's having Shottenneimer BDC. But McCarthy's gonna 418 00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:05,680 Speaker 3: call plays, run the offense. It's gonna go his way, 419 00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:08,719 Speaker 3: and I think it's because this really should be his 420 00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:10,880 Speaker 3: way or the highway, like he should be done if 421 00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:13,239 Speaker 3: he can't do anything with this team this season. In 422 00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:16,240 Speaker 3: my opinion, they're two stacked on both sides of the 423 00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:19,640 Speaker 3: ball talent wise, and they have the luxury of retaining 424 00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:23,040 Speaker 3: their defensive coordinator on a defense that is absolutely loaded 425 00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:26,640 Speaker 3: and gets a lot of production. That's a huge benefit 426 00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:29,600 Speaker 3: that nobody went and stole their defensive coordinator way, and 427 00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:33,119 Speaker 3: I think the Cowboys on the NFC side and the 428 00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:36,160 Speaker 3: Bengals on the AFC side both have that luxury going 429 00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:39,920 Speaker 3: for them that they have great defensive coordinators who are 430 00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:44,000 Speaker 3: potentially better suited to just be defensive coordinators, and they're 431 00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:46,040 Speaker 3: able to run those teams and do a lot with 432 00:21:46,119 --> 00:21:49,240 Speaker 3: those defenses. But on the offensive side of the ball, 433 00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:51,640 Speaker 3: I think it's going to be somewhat similar. The difference 434 00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:54,000 Speaker 3: is going to be that we probably are going to 435 00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:55,720 Speaker 3: run the ball a little bit more, which is worse 436 00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:58,720 Speaker 3: than a Dak Prescott pass attempt. However, at least we 437 00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:01,760 Speaker 3: have no Zeke Elliott there, and Zeke was just horrendous. 438 00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:04,160 Speaker 3: He had been horrendous. This is no breaking news here, 439 00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:07,080 Speaker 3: but we're going to get more upside with the current 440 00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:10,360 Speaker 3: rushing attack than we had before. I do have concerns 441 00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 3: about a little bit about the offensive line. I know 442 00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:14,680 Speaker 3: Brandon Cooks is coming in there is going to help 443 00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:16,800 Speaker 3: the receiving corps a little bit as well. They need 444 00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:19,040 Speaker 3: a little bit of health there. They lost their number 445 00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:21,480 Speaker 3: one tight end last season, who Dak Prescott used a 446 00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:24,480 Speaker 3: lot like a security blanket. How well are they going 447 00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:26,720 Speaker 3: to get the ball to their tight end this year, 448 00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:30,159 Speaker 3: who obviously a lot younger, a lot less experience. So 449 00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:33,560 Speaker 3: I think there's some changes, But in terms of what 450 00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:36,480 Speaker 3: they're trying to do offensively other than just run the 451 00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:37,520 Speaker 3: football a little bit more. 452 00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:39,040 Speaker 2: I think it's going to be pretty similar. 453 00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:42,800 Speaker 3: That being said, their idea of trying to run the 454 00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:45,480 Speaker 3: ball more and what Mike McCarthy wants to do there 455 00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:49,320 Speaker 3: is so antiquated and terrible. This already was one of 456 00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:53,840 Speaker 3: the highest run rate teams in the NFL in neutral situations, 457 00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:57,080 Speaker 3: and that really hurt them last season. If they let 458 00:22:57,200 --> 00:22:59,760 Speaker 3: Dak Prescott throw the football a little bit more on 459 00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:03,320 Speaker 3: early downs and try to go for more high efficiency, 460 00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:07,200 Speaker 3: high upside passes to avoid third downs, this team would 461 00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:09,280 Speaker 3: be in a lot better situation. The other thing that 462 00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:11,880 Speaker 3: would help them be in better situation. I know Dak 463 00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:15,320 Speaker 3: Prescott busted his ankle, and obviously that caused a lot 464 00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:18,840 Speaker 3: of problems in the past, but you got to use 465 00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:21,480 Speaker 3: the mobile quarterback's legs down inside the red zone, down 466 00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:23,560 Speaker 3: near the five yard line, this eight yard line, like, 467 00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:25,600 Speaker 3: you got to let him run the ball, make that 468 00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:29,119 Speaker 3: be an element of disguise. You don't have to end 469 00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:32,040 Speaker 3: up having him just literally run the ball a ton. 470 00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:34,919 Speaker 3: But if you run a little bit to start the season, 471 00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:37,800 Speaker 3: then defenses start to realize we've got to account for 472 00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:38,240 Speaker 3: this guy. 473 00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:38,720 Speaker 2: Now. 474 00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:40,679 Speaker 3: More things open up, whether it's at the running back 475 00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:43,280 Speaker 3: run game or in the passing game, and they don't 476 00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:45,840 Speaker 3: use Dak Prescott's legs at all at that end of 477 00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:48,399 Speaker 3: the field. So I'm hoping that they will do that 478 00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:49,639 Speaker 3: a little bit more this season. 479 00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:53,160 Speaker 1: One thing on Quinn, do you, because he has interviewed 480 00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:56,040 Speaker 1: for head coaching jobs, do you think he stayed because 481 00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:59,280 Speaker 1: he thinks if McCarthy gets dusted, I'll slide in there 482 00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:00,800 Speaker 1: for Jerry Well. 483 00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:02,720 Speaker 3: I think that that would be smart if that's why 484 00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:07,560 Speaker 3: he did stay. I don't know how how good those 485 00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:11,040 Speaker 3: opportunities were. I do think that in the current like 486 00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:13,840 Speaker 3: in the landscape of the NFL, even if it's like 487 00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:17,280 Speaker 3: the coordinator role, but particularly the head coaching role, I 488 00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:21,639 Speaker 3: would rather be a really good coordinator defensive or offensive 489 00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:25,040 Speaker 3: and wait for that particular job to open up. That's 490 00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:27,440 Speaker 3: actually a good job to take, rather than go into 491 00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:30,879 Speaker 3: a situation with no franchise QB and a terrible owner 492 00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:34,240 Speaker 3: and just take over for that franchise. Like I realize 493 00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:36,480 Speaker 3: that these guys only get so many bites at the apple. 494 00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:39,680 Speaker 3: Dan Quinn already had one shot, But I do think 495 00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:41,320 Speaker 3: that let's say he got a shot, but it was 496 00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:44,400 Speaker 3: a lower tier team, he probably made the right move 497 00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:47,240 Speaker 3: to stay there in Dallas, because if things do go 498 00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:50,680 Speaker 3: sideways here, all the blame's going to go to Mike McCarthy. Naturally, 499 00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:54,160 Speaker 3: he got rid of his anytime a coach gets rid 500 00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:56,080 Speaker 3: of even if it's during the season, gets rid of 501 00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:59,520 Speaker 3: the coordinator or takes over the play calling, like you know, 502 00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:02,360 Speaker 3: this is this is his last move, right, This probably 503 00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:05,520 Speaker 3: is this guy's last move, And so if they go sideways, 504 00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:08,920 Speaker 3: McCarthy's going to be out. Quinn might become the interim 505 00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:11,080 Speaker 3: coach and take things from there. 506 00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:13,760 Speaker 1: I do worry about something. I'm gonna go to my 507 00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:15,320 Speaker 1: Jets for a second. I say, you had a tweet 508 00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:18,680 Speaker 1: about Aaron Rodgers' lack of downfield accuracy just even throwing 509 00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:21,560 Speaker 1: the ball deep last year, and I'm hoping Warren a 510 00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:24,080 Speaker 1: lot of that had to do with young receivers, him 511 00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:26,320 Speaker 1: being pissed off with the franchise kind of sort of 512 00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:29,720 Speaker 1: checked out. What are we to make? I know, Russell 513 00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:32,480 Speaker 1: Wilson fell off a cliff pretty badly last year. He 514 00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:35,159 Speaker 1: could maybe bounce back without Hackett as his guy, but 515 00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:37,480 Speaker 1: I don't know. Rogers did not have a good year, 516 00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:40,880 Speaker 1: and then your numbers on his downfield passing. They kind 517 00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:42,080 Speaker 1: of had me worried for the Jets. 518 00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:45,359 Speaker 3: Yeah, so he threw forty attempts down the field, to 519 00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:48,040 Speaker 3: put that in some perspective, as the most of any 520 00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:51,080 Speaker 3: quarterback in the NFL, and only one other quarterback threw 521 00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:55,320 Speaker 3: the ball more than thirty times thirty plus yards down 522 00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:57,240 Speaker 3: the field. Okay, so we're looking at what is Aaron 523 00:25:57,280 --> 00:26:00,159 Speaker 3: Rodgers doing on these deep passes thirty plus yards the 524 00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:03,800 Speaker 3: ball forty times and only completed six of those. That 525 00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:06,240 Speaker 3: obviously sounds terrible. It is terrible. Is one of the 526 00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:09,320 Speaker 3: worst in the NFL last season, as completion rate was 527 00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:11,600 Speaker 3: got awful. Then you look at EPA and all the 528 00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:14,520 Speaker 3: efficiency metrics, obviously they're going to be closely tied to that, 529 00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:17,600 Speaker 3: and those were also terrible, among the league's worst. And 530 00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:20,639 Speaker 3: as a result, there's a lot of questions, right justifiably. So, 531 00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:24,200 Speaker 3: I do believe part of it is was his hand 532 00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:26,159 Speaker 3: that was injured. Part of it was he didn't have 533 00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:29,440 Speaker 3: a rapport with these receivers. Keep in mind, Rogers really 534 00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:31,879 Speaker 3: wasn't like hurrying to get the camp last year to 535 00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:33,400 Speaker 3: start working with all these young guys. 536 00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:34,439 Speaker 2: Davonte just got. 537 00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:36,800 Speaker 3: Shipped out to Vegas, and so who's going to be 538 00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:39,040 Speaker 3: working with He took his time to get into camp. 539 00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:42,680 Speaker 3: I think that was definitely a part of it as well. 540 00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:46,440 Speaker 3: And then there was like this element where they weren't 541 00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:51,280 Speaker 3: overly successful in terms of their overall team. They were 542 00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:54,160 Speaker 3: trailing in some games, and so Rogers would find himself 543 00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:56,880 Speaker 3: on like third and four, third and three, and sometimes 544 00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:59,040 Speaker 3: just like playing hero ball, chucking the ball down the 545 00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:02,080 Speaker 3: field necessarily like and then the team just ends up 546 00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:04,000 Speaker 3: punting the ball. Didn't make a whole lot of sense. 547 00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:06,000 Speaker 3: You got three yards to get. Let's get a high 548 00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:09,640 Speaker 3: efficiency conversion here rather than throwing the ball thirty plus 549 00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:12,720 Speaker 3: yards down the field. But I do think that on 550 00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:15,160 Speaker 3: the Jets, with his hand heeled and a better receiving 551 00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:19,320 Speaker 3: corps and clearly the desire, just like Brady goes to Tampa, 552 00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:21,560 Speaker 3: you got to prove it. Now the chips on your shoulder, 553 00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:24,240 Speaker 3: what was going wrong in Green Bay with your prior stop? 554 00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:26,240 Speaker 3: Was it you or was it the coach? And so 555 00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:29,040 Speaker 3: here you get the excellent opportunity to go improve it. 556 00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:34,320 Speaker 3: I think it's an interesting dynamic with where he landed 557 00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:37,880 Speaker 3: because for years now, being that you are a Jets fan, 558 00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:41,440 Speaker 3: you realize this. The defense has carried this football team 559 00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:44,280 Speaker 3: and you have not had a quarterback even have an 560 00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:46,680 Speaker 3: above five hundred record at any point with the team 561 00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:51,199 Speaker 3: since Mark Sanchez. Defenses, year in and year out, have 562 00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:54,640 Speaker 3: had to do more on their side of the football, 563 00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:57,080 Speaker 3: and that wears on a team. When the defense is 564 00:27:57,119 --> 00:27:59,080 Speaker 3: doing more and the offense is turning the ball over, 565 00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:02,840 Speaker 3: putting that defense into bad spots, it wears on that unit. 566 00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:06,639 Speaker 3: And yet roberts Ala comes in last season and absolutely 567 00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:10,280 Speaker 3: pulls together a big time improvement on the defensive side 568 00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:10,880 Speaker 3: of the football. 569 00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:13,920 Speaker 2: One of the best defenses in the NFL last year. 570 00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:14,840 Speaker 2: I pulled together. 571 00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:17,879 Speaker 3: Like some of the statistics where I looked at, I 572 00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:20,080 Speaker 3: know they played a varying schedule, right, some teams were good, 573 00:28:20,119 --> 00:28:22,520 Speaker 3: some teams were bad. Let's look at only the times 574 00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:25,960 Speaker 3: that they're playing top ten offenses. They played seven games 575 00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:28,920 Speaker 3: against top ten offenses. If you look at how they 576 00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:31,880 Speaker 3: did against top ten offenses versus how all the other 577 00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:34,480 Speaker 3: teams in the league did when they played top ten offenses, 578 00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:37,240 Speaker 3: the Jets defense still ranked number one in yards per 579 00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:40,760 Speaker 3: play allowed, number one in EPA per play allowed, number 580 00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:43,240 Speaker 3: two in success rate allowed, and there were seven of 581 00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:45,959 Speaker 3: those games. They played the Bills twice, the Bengals, the Lions, 582 00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:48,920 Speaker 3: the Jaguars, and the Dolphins twice. I even removed the 583 00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:51,960 Speaker 3: Dolphins game because both the Dolphins games because they didn't 584 00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:54,440 Speaker 3: play TUO in either of those games. And they still 585 00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:57,280 Speaker 3: were the number two defense against top ten teams even 586 00:28:57,320 --> 00:29:01,080 Speaker 3: when you exclude those So they were great last season. 587 00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:03,600 Speaker 3: Now they're going to get more support on the offensive 588 00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:06,400 Speaker 3: side of the ball. And you know this will you'll 589 00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:09,760 Speaker 3: feel really connected to this stat j mech because probably 590 00:29:09,800 --> 00:29:11,360 Speaker 3: had you banging your head on the wall. What is 591 00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:15,160 Speaker 3: the number one thing that a quarterback simply needs to do? 592 00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:17,360 Speaker 3: What is the number one most important thing? It's just 593 00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:20,400 Speaker 3: complete a pass, right like the bare minimum we need 594 00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:25,000 Speaker 3: to complete a pass. Zach Wilson dead lasting completion rate 595 00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:27,760 Speaker 3: each of the last two years. So in twenty twenty one, 596 00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:30,880 Speaker 3: he completed only fifty five point five percent of his passes, 597 00:29:31,280 --> 00:29:34,720 Speaker 3: dead last of any qualifying quarterback. This past year twenty 598 00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:38,280 Speaker 3: twenty two even worse fifty four point nine percent, again 599 00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:41,080 Speaker 3: though dead last in the NFL. So you haven't even 600 00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:44,600 Speaker 3: had a quarterback who has not been more than dead 601 00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:45,520 Speaker 3: last in the NFL. 602 00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:48,000 Speaker 2: And completion rate. The bare minimum threshold. 603 00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:50,040 Speaker 3: Of what you need a quarterback to do is when 604 00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:52,280 Speaker 3: you throw the ball, you need to put it somewhere 605 00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:55,000 Speaker 3: where somebody on our team can catch it. You couldn't 606 00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:57,560 Speaker 3: even do that last year at an acceptable level. So 607 00:29:57,920 --> 00:30:02,120 Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers certainly raises the floor immensely. Where is the ceiling. 608 00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:05,080 Speaker 3: That's a lot to be determined yet, because I do 609 00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:08,240 Speaker 3: think you've got the talent at the receiver position. I'm 610 00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:11,400 Speaker 3: worried about the offensive line a bit. Your defense is 611 00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:14,400 Speaker 3: obviously very good, but certainly you play in the AFC, 612 00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:17,880 Speaker 3: it's a stacked division, it's a stacked conference. I think 613 00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:20,520 Speaker 3: there are going to be challenges that arise. I'm interested 614 00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:23,880 Speaker 3: to see how quickly you get out the gates. And 615 00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:28,560 Speaker 3: then obviously we know you've got a difficult schedule, but 616 00:30:28,800 --> 00:30:32,160 Speaker 3: great rest. The NFL did you so many favors with 617 00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:35,920 Speaker 3: how much rest they gave. The Jets tied for the 618 00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:38,920 Speaker 3: best in the NFL of any team. Because the NFL 619 00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:41,400 Speaker 3: determines when are you going to play these games. They 620 00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:43,520 Speaker 3: don't determine who you're going to play. They determine when 621 00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:46,120 Speaker 3: you're going to play them, and they hooked you guys 622 00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:49,120 Speaker 3: up lots of home games early. I want to say, 623 00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:51,280 Speaker 3: out of like the seventeen games, you guys only leave 624 00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:54,760 Speaker 3: that stadium over that state. I know it's New Jersey, 625 00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:57,200 Speaker 3: but the New York, New Jersey area, I want to say, 626 00:30:57,240 --> 00:31:00,560 Speaker 3: like six or seven times. So it's just a great 627 00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:04,800 Speaker 3: schedule for the Jets this season, as best as they 628 00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:06,840 Speaker 3: could hope for. And certainly the NFL is gonna want 629 00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:09,920 Speaker 3: to see Aaron Rodgers in New York in the postseason. 630 00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:12,640 Speaker 1: Yeah, just don't screw them with hard knocks. All right, 631 00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:15,720 Speaker 1: We're a couple more real quick. Falcons over eight and 632 00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:18,000 Speaker 1: a half wins has peaked interest of a lot of people. 633 00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:19,959 Speaker 1: A bunch of betters I know have already taken it. 634 00:31:20,720 --> 00:31:24,200 Speaker 1: The Falcons schedule, the quarterbacks they face is unbelievably bad. 635 00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:26,560 Speaker 1: It's like first year guys, second year guys, unproven dudes. 636 00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:29,960 Speaker 1: I don't know. Is this something actionable? You think Falcons 637 00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:31,760 Speaker 1: over eight and a half wins in a bad division? 638 00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:34,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it is. I like that. 639 00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:37,720 Speaker 3: I actually gave out two free chapters, one of which 640 00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:40,440 Speaker 3: was on the Atlanta Falcons, and I took their over. 641 00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:43,120 Speaker 3: I was on it earlier this offseason. We got it 642 00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:46,239 Speaker 3: it over eight wins, I still would take over eight 643 00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:48,840 Speaker 3: and a half. I also like some longer shot bets 644 00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:53,600 Speaker 3: Falcons to make the playoffs, Falcons to win the division. 645 00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:55,920 Speaker 3: Now I don't know what those current odds are because 646 00:31:56,040 --> 00:31:57,840 Speaker 3: I gave those out the clients and we bet them 647 00:31:57,920 --> 00:31:59,680 Speaker 3: like a month ago, so I'm not sure where they 648 00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:02,480 Speaker 3: stay right now. But I am bigger on the Falcons 649 00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:05,000 Speaker 3: than a lot of people. Most people don't think about 650 00:32:05,320 --> 00:32:08,040 Speaker 3: is that the Falcons. I like to look at not 651 00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:10,000 Speaker 3: just how many one score losses you had, but how 652 00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:12,960 Speaker 3: many games were you in, which means you either won 653 00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:15,960 Speaker 3: the game or lost it by within one score, so 654 00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:18,520 Speaker 3: the game could have gone your way. Fifteen of their 655 00:32:18,560 --> 00:32:21,920 Speaker 3: seventeen games they were quote unquote in and that was 656 00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:24,560 Speaker 3: the third most in the NFL, behind only the Chiefs 657 00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:27,560 Speaker 3: and the Bills. This is a team that I think 658 00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:30,440 Speaker 3: is going to continue to grow. Arthur Smith took this 659 00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:33,080 Speaker 3: team from a bottom five rushing attack his first year 660 00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:36,760 Speaker 3: to a top five rushing attack last season, and all 661 00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:39,959 Speaker 3: they did was added a fifth round rookie. Now they 662 00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:43,280 Speaker 3: go out, they add Bijon Robinson as well. They need 663 00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:45,120 Speaker 3: to get their passing game moving forward. 664 00:32:45,120 --> 00:32:45,600 Speaker 2: A little bit. 665 00:32:45,640 --> 00:32:47,320 Speaker 3: But one of the things that their run game does 666 00:32:47,440 --> 00:32:50,920 Speaker 3: it's so unique, is on first down. Even though defenses 667 00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:53,080 Speaker 3: stacked the box at a top five rate because they 668 00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:55,040 Speaker 3: know a run is coming, and the Falcons still run 669 00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:57,320 Speaker 3: the ball at a high rate. They're efficient when they 670 00:32:57,400 --> 00:32:59,520 Speaker 3: run the ball on first down, and they're the best 671 00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:03,080 Speaker 3: team in play action on first down. Their EPA per attempt, 672 00:33:03,080 --> 00:33:06,080 Speaker 3: their yards perttempt throwing the ball down the field are outstanding. 673 00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:08,840 Speaker 3: The key, oh is in the red zone. They need 674 00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:10,600 Speaker 3: to improve inside of the red zone, where they were 675 00:33:10,600 --> 00:33:13,960 Speaker 3: bottom five last season. And guess what Arthur Smith is 676 00:33:14,040 --> 00:33:16,840 Speaker 3: known for that in Tennessee when he was there. This 677 00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:19,320 Speaker 3: is one of the best offenses inside of the red zone. 678 00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:22,160 Speaker 3: I think that's an improvement that the Falcons make. They 679 00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:24,200 Speaker 3: brought in a ton of players on the defensive side, 680 00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:27,200 Speaker 3: and I didn't mention the biggest thing. Last year they 681 00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:30,040 Speaker 3: ate eighty four million in dead cap. They only spent 682 00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:32,720 Speaker 3: two hundred and three million on the salaries cap out 683 00:33:32,720 --> 00:33:35,040 Speaker 3: of two hundred and eight. Eighty four out of the 684 00:33:35,040 --> 00:33:37,880 Speaker 3: two hundred and three was on dead cap for players 685 00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:40,560 Speaker 3: that weren't even on their roster. Now they're down to 686 00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:43,880 Speaker 3: eleven million in dead cap. They've decided to spend the 687 00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:47,000 Speaker 3: rest of that money now that they got back on players, 688 00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:49,040 Speaker 3: so they loaded up on the defensive side of the ball. 689 00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:51,120 Speaker 3: They've got some more players on the offensive side of 690 00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:52,800 Speaker 3: the ball. This is definitely going to be a team 691 00:33:52,840 --> 00:33:55,080 Speaker 3: that has improved a lot year over year in my opinion. 692 00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:57,240 Speaker 1: Interesting, all right, we'll wrap up with this one, Warren. 693 00:33:58,320 --> 00:34:00,680 Speaker 1: If I said to you, you can have this Eagles 694 00:34:00,800 --> 00:34:04,720 Speaker 1: or Chiefs on one side or the Field on the 695 00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:06,680 Speaker 1: other side to win the Super Bowl, which side would 696 00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:08,520 Speaker 1: you take? Now? 697 00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:11,480 Speaker 2: I think I'm going Field. I think I think I'm Field. 698 00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:14,640 Speaker 3: Look, as much as I love both of those teams 699 00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:16,759 Speaker 3: and think that they've got a great chance to come back, 700 00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:21,359 Speaker 3: the playoffs is such a I don't want to say, 701 00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:23,080 Speaker 3: like it's such a good tournament, you know, like the 702 00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:27,479 Speaker 3: NFL playoffs as much must see TV. We don't even 703 00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:29,560 Speaker 3: know if both of those teams is going to get 704 00:34:29,560 --> 00:34:32,600 Speaker 3: a first round by so unlike last season where they 705 00:34:32,640 --> 00:34:35,200 Speaker 3: did have those opportunities, they might have to end up playing. 706 00:34:35,200 --> 00:34:37,880 Speaker 3: The AFC is obviously very stacked. I think the Cowboys 707 00:34:37,880 --> 00:34:39,840 Speaker 3: are going to be better. There's other teams in the 708 00:34:39,920 --> 00:34:42,920 Speaker 3: NFC that could perform a little bit better than they 709 00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:45,000 Speaker 3: did last year to give the Eagles a bit of 710 00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:48,560 Speaker 3: a run for that best record in the in the NFC. 711 00:34:48,920 --> 00:34:50,680 Speaker 3: As a result, you might get more games that the 712 00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:53,160 Speaker 3: Eagles are playing now. Would I bet that both of 713 00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:55,920 Speaker 3: these teams make it to the divisional round or to 714 00:34:56,120 --> 00:34:59,000 Speaker 3: the conference Championship round? Yeah, I mean I think that 715 00:34:59,040 --> 00:35:01,919 Speaker 3: they are good enough to both. Say for sure, I'm 716 00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:04,720 Speaker 3: expecting that it would be a massive disaster and shock 717 00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:07,000 Speaker 3: if they don't make it at least to the divisional round. 718 00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:09,680 Speaker 3: But once you're there, you know, Look, Jalen Hurts I 719 00:35:09,680 --> 00:35:12,040 Speaker 3: shared some of these stats before. This is a team 720 00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:14,560 Speaker 3: that does not have a lot of experience, nor was 721 00:35:14,680 --> 00:35:17,840 Speaker 3: very good when they were down in games, laden games 722 00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:20,120 Speaker 3: or situations where they had to turn to the pass. 723 00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:22,560 Speaker 3: The defenses knew that they were going to throw the football. 724 00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:26,040 Speaker 3: The Eagles offense was not nearly as good because they're 725 00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:28,799 Speaker 3: rarely in those situations, and in my opinion, they take 726 00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:30,960 Speaker 3: their foot off the gas too quickly in the second 727 00:35:30,960 --> 00:35:33,680 Speaker 3: half to try to get out of games healthy. They 728 00:35:33,719 --> 00:35:36,279 Speaker 3: need those reps of continuing to throw the football a 729 00:35:36,320 --> 00:35:39,239 Speaker 3: little bit more deeper into the second half when you're 730 00:35:39,280 --> 00:35:41,160 Speaker 3: in situation all of a sudden. That's why the Patrick 731 00:35:41,160 --> 00:35:43,800 Speaker 3: Mahomes led Chiefs is such a great team to watch 732 00:35:43,880 --> 00:35:48,480 Speaker 3: because first quarter to fourth quarter they're passing the football 733 00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:50,080 Speaker 3: right like, this is a pass first team. 734 00:35:50,239 --> 00:35:52,320 Speaker 2: So if they end up being in a situation. 735 00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:55,239 Speaker 3: Where they're trailing, they're familiar territory for them, they're going 736 00:35:55,280 --> 00:35:56,600 Speaker 3: to be able to pass the ball and get out 737 00:35:56,600 --> 00:35:56,839 Speaker 3: of it. 738 00:35:56,960 --> 00:35:58,160 Speaker 2: The Eagles a little bit. 739 00:35:58,160 --> 00:36:01,040 Speaker 3: Less familiar territory, especially into the fourth quarter. So I 740 00:36:01,120 --> 00:36:03,479 Speaker 3: like both these teams. I'm not betting against them right now, 741 00:36:03,840 --> 00:36:05,799 Speaker 3: but I do think that I would rather have the 742 00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:07,000 Speaker 3: field in that scenario. 743 00:36:07,400 --> 00:36:10,080 Speaker 1: Interesting. Wow, So, by the way, you said Falcons in 744 00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:12,319 Speaker 1: the NFC as a pick, is there a team you're 745 00:36:12,360 --> 00:36:16,000 Speaker 1: looking at an over under in the AFC that has 746 00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:18,359 Speaker 1: kind of jumped out? Again, we're only recording this end 747 00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:21,160 Speaker 1: of June early July. Still a lot to be determined. 748 00:36:21,920 --> 00:36:23,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I think the Raiders are in trouble. 749 00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:26,040 Speaker 3: I think the Raiders are in trouble. Here's here's here's 750 00:36:26,080 --> 00:36:28,279 Speaker 3: one reason why. With with Jimmy g I'll give you 751 00:36:28,360 --> 00:36:31,120 Speaker 3: probably one actionable bet. We bet the under on their 752 00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:33,160 Speaker 3: win total. I think it was at seven and a half. 753 00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:35,080 Speaker 3: I don't know what the line is right now, but 754 00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:37,799 Speaker 3: there's also an angle that you could take under two and. 755 00:36:37,760 --> 00:36:39,640 Speaker 2: A half division wins. 756 00:36:39,920 --> 00:36:42,200 Speaker 3: So they're not going to win at least three games 757 00:36:42,239 --> 00:36:45,360 Speaker 3: within the AFC West. They've won three games each of 758 00:36:45,400 --> 00:36:49,320 Speaker 3: the last two years. However, they swept the Denver Broncos. 759 00:36:49,400 --> 00:36:50,919 Speaker 3: I think the Broncos are going to be a little 760 00:36:50,960 --> 00:36:52,799 Speaker 3: bit better with Sean Payton, the investment on the O 761 00:36:52,960 --> 00:36:55,319 Speaker 3: line and everything like that. I would be shocked if 762 00:36:55,320 --> 00:36:58,120 Speaker 3: they sweep the Broncos this year. As a result, they're 763 00:36:58,120 --> 00:37:00,200 Speaker 3: gonna have to find that third win somewhere else. I 764 00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:02,200 Speaker 3: like under two and a half wins for them. But 765 00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:04,239 Speaker 3: one of the big reasons J Mack in the book 766 00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:07,239 Speaker 3: I go over this at nauseuma encourage everybody to check 767 00:37:07,320 --> 00:37:10,040 Speaker 3: it out. In the chapter on the Raiders, the difference 768 00:37:10,080 --> 00:37:14,759 Speaker 3: between what Derek Carr was doing on early downs in 769 00:37:14,760 --> 00:37:17,439 Speaker 3: in Vegas with the Raiders, what Josh McDaniels was having 770 00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:20,520 Speaker 3: him do versus what Jimmy g was asked to do 771 00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:24,200 Speaker 3: with the forty nine Ers is night and day. Derek 772 00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:26,920 Speaker 3: Carr was asked to pass the ball early on downs 773 00:37:27,040 --> 00:37:29,040 Speaker 3: and throw the ball deeper down the field and so 774 00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:31,120 Speaker 3: he had a lot of longer dropbacks throw the ball deep. 775 00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:35,799 Speaker 3: Totally different than what Jimmy G was doing in San Francisco. 776 00:37:35,960 --> 00:37:38,680 Speaker 3: Kyle was running the ball a ton and all the 777 00:37:38,680 --> 00:37:41,160 Speaker 3: pass attempts had one of the lowest A dots. 778 00:37:40,880 --> 00:37:41,440 Speaker 2: In the league. 779 00:37:41,520 --> 00:37:43,640 Speaker 3: The forty nine ers lead the league in yards after 780 00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:46,000 Speaker 3: the catch, but they're among the shortest in terms of 781 00:37:46,040 --> 00:37:47,920 Speaker 3: target depth to throw the ball short, a lot of 782 00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:50,279 Speaker 3: passes behind the line of scrimmage. That's not what Josh 783 00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:53,160 Speaker 3: McDaniels offense is like. So I am I do not 784 00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:55,880 Speaker 3: think it's a great fit at all. Jimmy G dropping 785 00:37:56,000 --> 00:37:58,200 Speaker 3: back behind center, having to throw the ball deeper down 786 00:37:58,239 --> 00:38:00,839 Speaker 3: the field on first and second down. He's just never 787 00:38:00,920 --> 00:38:03,120 Speaker 3: done that in his time in San Francisco, and I 788 00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:05,600 Speaker 3: don't think it's going to be overly productive for him 789 00:38:05,640 --> 00:38:06,920 Speaker 3: in Las Vegas. 790 00:38:07,320 --> 00:38:10,080 Speaker 1: It's weird, Warren. I mean, I don't want to say 791 00:38:10,120 --> 00:38:13,200 Speaker 1: people start tanking in like November, but you have to 792 00:38:13,280 --> 00:38:18,000 Speaker 1: wonder if teams like Tampa, the Raiders, Arizona they start 793 00:38:18,040 --> 00:38:21,680 Speaker 1: the fire sale early. Hey, you know, Raiders, we're two 794 00:38:21,719 --> 00:38:24,040 Speaker 1: and seven. DeVante Adams can be had. Who want you know, 795 00:38:24,239 --> 00:38:26,920 Speaker 1: Josh Jacobs, anybody you know. And you wonder if teams 796 00:38:26,960 --> 00:38:29,960 Speaker 1: start to think about offloading if it's going sideways with 797 00:38:30,080 --> 00:38:33,080 Speaker 1: Caleb Williams sitting there as I'm assuming you're in the 798 00:38:33,120 --> 00:38:35,640 Speaker 1: camp of Caleb Williams, is going to be pretty damn awesome. 799 00:38:36,120 --> 00:38:39,000 Speaker 2: Yeah. No, I'm looking forward to just the college football season. 800 00:38:39,160 --> 00:38:41,160 Speaker 3: Never look forward to college football seasons really because I'm 801 00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:43,200 Speaker 3: such an NFL guy, But I just want to see 802 00:38:43,200 --> 00:38:46,480 Speaker 3: how he's grown and matured over the offseason and looking 803 00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:48,440 Speaker 3: to see him on the field again. I absolutely think 804 00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:51,600 Speaker 3: that teams would be in their best interests, especially like them. 805 00:38:51,719 --> 00:38:54,160 Speaker 3: Think about this. You go from Derek Carr now Jimmy 806 00:38:54,200 --> 00:38:57,200 Speaker 3: g and you got the potential to go to Caleb Williams. 807 00:38:57,200 --> 00:38:59,120 Speaker 3: Like I think, it's a no brainer that you have 808 00:38:59,200 --> 00:39:01,719 Speaker 3: to figure out a way to get that number one 809 00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:04,719 Speaker 3: overall pick. And absolutely, if you win two games, you 810 00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:07,440 Speaker 3: probably should be looking to pack things up midway through 811 00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:08,400 Speaker 3: the season. 812 00:39:08,840 --> 00:39:12,440 Speaker 1: All right, Warren Sharp Sharp Football Analysis. His guide comes 813 00:39:12,480 --> 00:39:15,360 Speaker 1: out July fifth, you said, And they can buy that 814 00:39:15,440 --> 00:39:17,920 Speaker 1: on the website or your social media handles. All that 815 00:39:17,960 --> 00:39:18,520 Speaker 1: fun stuff. 816 00:39:18,680 --> 00:39:20,799 Speaker 3: All that fun stuff, it's there LinkedIn my bio on 817 00:39:20,880 --> 00:39:22,759 Speaker 3: social media as well as on the website. 818 00:39:23,160 --> 00:39:25,319 Speaker 1: All Right, Warren, Hey, thanks a lot, obviously love the 819 00:39:25,320 --> 00:39:28,120 Speaker 1: football preview you do, enjoy the beach, You put in 820 00:39:28,160 --> 00:39:30,240 Speaker 1: the work and then we'll talk to you during the season. 821 00:39:30,520 --> 00:39:33,600 Speaker 2: Thanks for having me. Jay Mane The Volume