WEBVTT - The Swedish Strategy

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day one hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and seventy three since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic.

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<v Speaker 1>Today's main story. Sweden shocked the world this spring when

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<v Speaker 1>the government decided to keep businesses mostly open and impose

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<v Speaker 1>far fewer restrictions on movement to stem the COVID nineteen outbreak.

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<v Speaker 1>But the controversial strategy may have paid off. Was it

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<v Speaker 1>worth the death toll? But first, here's what happened in

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<v Speaker 1>virus News today. India past Mexico in COVID nineteen fatalities,

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<v Speaker 1>making it the country with the third largest death toll

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<v Speaker 1>in the world. The country is fast becoming the new

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<v Speaker 1>virus epicenter, behind only the US and Brazil in both

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<v Speaker 1>deaths and infections. The virus has swept India's vast rural areas.

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<v Speaker 1>The grim milestone comes a day after the country set

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<v Speaker 1>another record, reporting the most daily infections of any country.

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<v Speaker 1>It's seventy eight thousand, seven hundred and sixty one new

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<v Speaker 1>infections surpassed a previous high set by the US in Uganda.

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<v Speaker 1>The coronavirus outbreak is spreading quickly. Health care facilities in

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<v Speaker 1>the capital Kampala have run out of bed capacity, according

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<v Speaker 1>to the newspaper New Vision. The newspaper cited Monica New Scenario,

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<v Speaker 1>the Presidential advisor on the outbreak, as saying the city

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<v Speaker 1>is racing toward uncontrollable transmission. Finally, in the US, most

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<v Speaker 1>people see the vaccine process as politicized. According to a

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<v Speaker 1>new survey from Stat and the Harris Poll, seventy eight

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<v Speaker 1>percent of Americans worry that the COVID nineteen vaccine approval

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<v Speaker 1>process is being driven more by politics than science. Seventy

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<v Speaker 1>two percent of Republicans and eighty two percent of Democrats

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<v Speaker 1>expressed such concerns. The results underscore speculation that President Donald

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<v Speaker 1>Trump may pressure the US Food and Drug Administration to

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<v Speaker 1>approve or authorize emergency use of at least one vaccine

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<v Speaker 1>prior to the election, but before testing has been fully completed,

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<v Speaker 1>according to STAT and Now for today's main story. Recently,

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<v Speaker 1>Sweden won praise from one of the World Health Organization's

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<v Speaker 1>six Special Envoys on COVID nineteen, Dr David Navarro. Navarro

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<v Speaker 1>said the key to assist anable coronavirus strategy is trust

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<v Speaker 1>and highlighted Sweden as a case in point the Nordic

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<v Speaker 1>nation imposed far fewer restrictions on movement than other countries

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<v Speaker 1>and instead relied on Swedes to act responsibly and embrace

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<v Speaker 1>the guidelines laid out by the country's health authorities, but

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<v Speaker 1>the country's strategy has been controversial. Sweden's COVID nineteen death

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<v Speaker 1>rate is considerably higher than in many other countries, at

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<v Speaker 1>fifty seven per one hundred thousand people, but the pace

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<v Speaker 1>of new infections and deaths has slowed markedly since the

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<v Speaker 1>end of June. I talked to Stockholm based reporter Nikolas

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<v Speaker 1>Rolander about how the strategy was devised and where the

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<v Speaker 1>country has gone right and wrong in fighting the virus.

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<v Speaker 1>What has been Sweden's strategy to battle COVID nineteen since March.

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<v Speaker 1>The strategy has been based on mainly on voluntary measures

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<v Speaker 1>from from the public. So Sweden has taken some legal decisions,

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<v Speaker 1>such as to ban public gatherings of more than fifty people,

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<v Speaker 1>but it has largely avoided more stringent lockdowns than that

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<v Speaker 1>many other countries have imposed, and instead it's urged its

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<v Speaker 1>citizens to take responsibility themselves, to keep a distance to

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<v Speaker 1>work from home if they can, and to stay home

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<v Speaker 1>if they have any symptoms of COVID. Schools have remained

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<v Speaker 1>open largely, shops have been open, restaurants have been open,

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<v Speaker 1>with some restrictions when it comes to how many people

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<v Speaker 1>they let in and the distances between patrons, and the

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<v Speaker 1>argument has been that these more loose restrictions are more

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<v Speaker 1>sustainable in the long run than a lockdown where everyone

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<v Speaker 1>is forced to stay at home. But Sweden has always

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<v Speaker 1>made the argument that this is something that we'll have

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<v Speaker 1>to live with for a long time, and therefore it's

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<v Speaker 1>better to have measures that are sustainable, that that are

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<v Speaker 1>possible to keep going for for a long time. So

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<v Speaker 1>what have been some of the major criticisms of sweden strategy.

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<v Speaker 1>I think domestically, the critics have focused a lot on

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<v Speaker 1>the death rates, which are at the moment about ten

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<v Speaker 1>times higher than in Norway, five times higher than in Denmark.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's from that perspective there is definitely a cause

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<v Speaker 1>for concern about what what sweden strategy has meant for

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<v Speaker 1>death rates. Its also say that Sweden could have bought

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<v Speaker 1>valuable time earlier in the pandemic by adopting specter measures

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<v Speaker 1>to learn more about how the virus behaves and develop

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<v Speaker 1>better methods for treatment that could have saved lives if

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<v Speaker 1>we had just delayed some of the transmission we had

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<v Speaker 1>early on. There's also the claim that Swedish public health

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<v Speaker 1>experts have underestimated the role that asymptomatic spread has played

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<v Speaker 1>in the transmission of the disease, and that has underpinned

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<v Speaker 1>some of the decisions that Sweden has made. Now I'm

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<v Speaker 1>interested by keeping schools open, many businesses open. What has

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<v Speaker 1>been perhaps the impact of this strategy on Sweden's economy.

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<v Speaker 1>The impact has been slightly less bad than comparable countries.

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<v Speaker 1>It's not a huge difference, though. We still have pretty

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<v Speaker 1>historic PLoP and g d P, and Sweden's economy is

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<v Speaker 1>very reliant on exports, so so no matter how how

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<v Speaker 1>much better we're doing in the domestic economy, we will

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<v Speaker 1>be hurt by by a decrease in in international demand.

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<v Speaker 1>So it may not have been as as different as

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<v Speaker 1>you might think it would would be from from other countries,

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<v Speaker 1>but still slightly less affected than than other countries. You know.

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<v Speaker 1>Looking to the last few months, say the summer months,

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<v Speaker 1>there has been seemingly some good news coming out of Sweden,

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<v Speaker 1>with lower daily death rates or lower reports of new cases.

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<v Speaker 1>Does this perhaps account for changing global opinion about whether

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<v Speaker 1>or not Sweden had the correct strategy all along. Definitely

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<v Speaker 1>that's contributed. I think there's probably two factors behind that.

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<v Speaker 1>One is that we've seen a rapid decrease in transmission,

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<v Speaker 1>number of cases, number of cases in I See you,

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<v Speaker 1>and the number of deaths as well. At the same time,

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<v Speaker 1>I think people are obviously looking at Sweden for clues

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<v Speaker 1>on how to approach this pandemic more long term. And

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<v Speaker 1>that's also the case that's been made by for example,

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<v Speaker 1>w h O experts that after this space of very

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<v Speaker 1>strict lockdowns that may or may not may not have

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<v Speaker 1>been necessary in the early phases of the pandemic to

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<v Speaker 1>really stem the transmission, you now need to look at

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<v Speaker 1>something that's more sustainable that you can hold onto for

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<v Speaker 1>a longer period of time, and that's always been Sweden's approach.

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<v Speaker 1>So Sweden it's more likely to be seen as a

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<v Speaker 1>model at the stage of the pandemic than it was before,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, taking a long look at sweden strategy over

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<v Speaker 1>the last six months or even longer, there has always

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<v Speaker 1>been this question of whether the intent behind this policy

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<v Speaker 1>was to achieve herd immunity. Do you think this was

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<v Speaker 1>part of the strategy overall, or do you think that

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<v Speaker 1>there's much more broader factors at play. I mean, if

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<v Speaker 1>you listen to the public health experts in Sweden, they

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<v Speaker 1>have consistently denied that her immunity was the aim of

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<v Speaker 1>the strategy. They have said, why it may be the

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<v Speaker 1>case that sweden strategy will lead to bigger transmission and

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<v Speaker 1>therefore more immunity, that has never been the primary target.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, some critics have questioned that and called it

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<v Speaker 1>a stealth strategy, but the official line is that her

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<v Speaker 1>immunity is not part of the strategy. And after a

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<v Speaker 1>few months into the pandemic, I think it was clear

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<v Speaker 1>to public health experts here as well that this virus

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<v Speaker 1>wasn't really behaving in the way that previous similar viruses have.

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<v Speaker 1>So the idea that the virus would be spreading widely

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<v Speaker 1>throughout society society and that a large portion of the

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<v Speaker 1>population would be infected within a reasonably short period of

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<v Speaker 1>time wasn't really how this panned out. Instead, it's been

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<v Speaker 1>more about very local outbreaks and so called cluster or transmission,

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<v Speaker 1>which makes it much harder to reach that level of

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<v Speaker 1>immunity and the population, and so recently public health experts

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<v Speaker 1>here have have stressed that we don't have the levels

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<v Speaker 1>of immunity that protects us from further outbreaks. Now that

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<v Speaker 1>we're looking to the end of summer and oncoming flu

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<v Speaker 1>season the start of a new school year, how iswen

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<v Speaker 1>looking ahead to say, the fall or winter um with

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<v Speaker 1>with these elements kind of on the horizon. I think,

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<v Speaker 1>just as in the rest of the world, we're looking

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<v Speaker 1>forward with some prepidation. I mean, the situation right now

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<v Speaker 1>looks pretty positive, but you shouldn't forget also that we

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<v Speaker 1>have we still have more cases than in many other

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<v Speaker 1>countries that had more strict lockdowns, and there will be

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<v Speaker 1>local outbreaks. So we'll see what happens during the fall,

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<v Speaker 1>and the public health authorities will publish their report on

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<v Speaker 1>new guidelines for the fall this week, and there may

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<v Speaker 1>be some reconsidering of things like face mosques, which Swedish

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<v Speaker 1>public Health Agency has been very skeptical of so far

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<v Speaker 1>and have said that there may be a case for

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<v Speaker 1>advising the use of face masks in some situations where

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<v Speaker 1>it's hard or impossible to keep a proper distance. That

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<v Speaker 1>was Nick class Rowlander and that's it for our show Today.

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<v Speaker 1>For coverage of the outbreak from one hundred and bureaus

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<v Speaker 1>around the world, visit bloom dot com slash Coronavirus and

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<v Speaker 1>if you like the show, please leave us a review

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<v Speaker 1>The Prognosis Daily edition is produced by Top for Foreheads

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<v Speaker 1>Jordan Gaspore, Magnus Hendrickson, and me Laura Carlson. Today's main

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<v Speaker 1>story was reported by Nick Las Rolander. Original music by

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<v Speaker 1>Leo Sitran. Our editors are Rick Shine and Francesca Levi.

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<v Speaker 1>Francesca Levi is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening.