1 00:00:03,600 --> 00:00:08,080 Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day one hundred 2 00:00:08,160 --> 00:00:12,480 Speaker 1: and seventy three since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. 3 00:00:13,400 --> 00:00:17,720 Speaker 1: Today's main story. Sweden shocked the world this spring when 4 00:00:17,760 --> 00:00:21,920 Speaker 1: the government decided to keep businesses mostly open and impose 5 00:00:22,200 --> 00:00:26,800 Speaker 1: far fewer restrictions on movement to stem the COVID nineteen outbreak. 6 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:32,680 Speaker 1: But the controversial strategy may have paid off. Was it 7 00:00:32,760 --> 00:00:37,320 Speaker 1: worth the death toll? But first, here's what happened in 8 00:00:37,479 --> 00:00:49,280 Speaker 1: virus News today. India past Mexico in COVID nineteen fatalities, 9 00:00:49,680 --> 00:00:53,200 Speaker 1: making it the country with the third largest death toll 10 00:00:53,320 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 1: in the world. The country is fast becoming the new 11 00:00:56,760 --> 00:01:01,480 Speaker 1: virus epicenter, behind only the US and Brazil in both 12 00:01:01,560 --> 00:01:08,680 Speaker 1: deaths and infections. The virus has swept India's vast rural areas. 13 00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:12,680 Speaker 1: The grim milestone comes a day after the country set 14 00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:17,680 Speaker 1: another record, reporting the most daily infections of any country. 15 00:01:17,880 --> 00:01:21,880 Speaker 1: It's seventy eight thousand, seven hundred and sixty one new 16 00:01:22,000 --> 00:01:28,720 Speaker 1: infections surpassed a previous high set by the US in Uganda. 17 00:01:29,000 --> 00:01:33,720 Speaker 1: The coronavirus outbreak is spreading quickly. Health care facilities in 18 00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:37,920 Speaker 1: the capital Kampala have run out of bed capacity, according 19 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:43,840 Speaker 1: to the newspaper New Vision. The newspaper cited Monica New Scenario, 20 00:01:44,360 --> 00:01:47,480 Speaker 1: the Presidential advisor on the outbreak, as saying the city 21 00:01:47,720 --> 00:01:54,400 Speaker 1: is racing toward uncontrollable transmission. Finally, in the US, most 22 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:59,080 Speaker 1: people see the vaccine process as politicized. According to a 23 00:01:59,120 --> 00:02:02,800 Speaker 1: new survey from Stat and the Harris Poll, seventy eight 24 00:02:02,800 --> 00:02:07,280 Speaker 1: percent of Americans worry that the COVID nineteen vaccine approval 25 00:02:07,320 --> 00:02:12,960 Speaker 1: process is being driven more by politics than science. Seventy 26 00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:17,280 Speaker 1: two percent of Republicans and eighty two percent of Democrats 27 00:02:17,280 --> 00:02:23,160 Speaker 1: expressed such concerns. The results underscore speculation that President Donald 28 00:02:23,200 --> 00:02:27,120 Speaker 1: Trump may pressure the US Food and Drug Administration to 29 00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:32,400 Speaker 1: approve or authorize emergency use of at least one vaccine 30 00:02:32,720 --> 00:02:37,480 Speaker 1: prior to the election, but before testing has been fully completed, 31 00:02:37,960 --> 00:02:48,960 Speaker 1: according to STAT and Now for today's main story. Recently, 32 00:02:49,320 --> 00:02:52,799 Speaker 1: Sweden won praise from one of the World Health Organization's 33 00:02:53,040 --> 00:02:58,400 Speaker 1: six Special Envoys on COVID nineteen, Dr David Navarro. Navarro 34 00:02:58,600 --> 00:03:02,760 Speaker 1: said the key to assist anable coronavirus strategy is trust 35 00:03:03,280 --> 00:03:07,040 Speaker 1: and highlighted Sweden as a case in point the Nordic 36 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:11,320 Speaker 1: nation imposed far fewer restrictions on movement than other countries 37 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:15,840 Speaker 1: and instead relied on Swedes to act responsibly and embrace 38 00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:20,560 Speaker 1: the guidelines laid out by the country's health authorities, but 39 00:03:20,919 --> 00:03:25,480 Speaker 1: the country's strategy has been controversial. Sweden's COVID nineteen death 40 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:29,880 Speaker 1: rate is considerably higher than in many other countries, at 41 00:03:29,919 --> 00:03:34,200 Speaker 1: fifty seven per one hundred thousand people, but the pace 42 00:03:34,200 --> 00:03:38,520 Speaker 1: of new infections and deaths has slowed markedly since the 43 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:42,840 Speaker 1: end of June. I talked to Stockholm based reporter Nikolas 44 00:03:43,040 --> 00:03:46,720 Speaker 1: Rolander about how the strategy was devised and where the 45 00:03:46,760 --> 00:03:51,080 Speaker 1: country has gone right and wrong in fighting the virus. 46 00:03:57,080 --> 00:04:02,600 Speaker 1: What has been Sweden's strategy to battle COVID nineteen since March. 47 00:04:03,480 --> 00:04:09,360 Speaker 1: The strategy has been based on mainly on voluntary measures 48 00:04:09,440 --> 00:04:15,680 Speaker 1: from from the public. So Sweden has taken some legal decisions, 49 00:04:15,720 --> 00:04:19,480 Speaker 1: such as to ban public gatherings of more than fifty people, 50 00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:25,000 Speaker 1: but it has largely avoided more stringent lockdowns than that 51 00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:30,000 Speaker 1: many other countries have imposed, and instead it's urged its 52 00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:34,839 Speaker 1: citizens to take responsibility themselves, to keep a distance to 53 00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:37,560 Speaker 1: work from home if they can, and to stay home 54 00:04:37,640 --> 00:04:44,799 Speaker 1: if they have any symptoms of COVID. Schools have remained 55 00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:49,640 Speaker 1: open largely, shops have been open, restaurants have been open, 56 00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:52,119 Speaker 1: with some restrictions when it comes to how many people 57 00:04:52,160 --> 00:04:56,919 Speaker 1: they let in and the distances between patrons, and the 58 00:04:57,040 --> 00:05:04,920 Speaker 1: argument has been that these more loose restrictions are more 59 00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:09,040 Speaker 1: sustainable in the long run than a lockdown where everyone 60 00:05:09,160 --> 00:05:13,640 Speaker 1: is forced to stay at home. But Sweden has always 61 00:05:13,720 --> 00:05:16,359 Speaker 1: made the argument that this is something that we'll have 62 00:05:16,440 --> 00:05:19,240 Speaker 1: to live with for a long time, and therefore it's 63 00:05:19,240 --> 00:05:22,400 Speaker 1: better to have measures that are sustainable, that that are 64 00:05:22,520 --> 00:05:27,520 Speaker 1: possible to keep going for for a long time. So 65 00:05:27,880 --> 00:05:32,600 Speaker 1: what have been some of the major criticisms of sweden strategy. 66 00:05:33,120 --> 00:05:38,440 Speaker 1: I think domestically, the critics have focused a lot on 67 00:05:38,880 --> 00:05:44,520 Speaker 1: the death rates, which are at the moment about ten 68 00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:47,799 Speaker 1: times higher than in Norway, five times higher than in Denmark. 69 00:05:47,920 --> 00:05:53,320 Speaker 1: So it's from that perspective there is definitely a cause 70 00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:57,640 Speaker 1: for concern about what what sweden strategy has meant for 71 00:05:58,560 --> 00:06:02,359 Speaker 1: death rates. Its also say that Sweden could have bought 72 00:06:02,520 --> 00:06:07,240 Speaker 1: valuable time earlier in the pandemic by adopting specter measures 73 00:06:08,520 --> 00:06:13,600 Speaker 1: to learn more about how the virus behaves and develop 74 00:06:14,040 --> 00:06:21,479 Speaker 1: better methods for treatment that could have saved lives if 75 00:06:21,560 --> 00:06:25,640 Speaker 1: we had just delayed some of the transmission we had 76 00:06:25,640 --> 00:06:30,920 Speaker 1: early on. There's also the claim that Swedish public health 77 00:06:31,000 --> 00:06:37,839 Speaker 1: experts have underestimated the role that asymptomatic spread has played 78 00:06:37,880 --> 00:06:42,839 Speaker 1: in the transmission of the disease, and that has underpinned 79 00:06:42,880 --> 00:06:46,200 Speaker 1: some of the decisions that Sweden has made. Now I'm 80 00:06:46,320 --> 00:06:52,280 Speaker 1: interested by keeping schools open, many businesses open. What has 81 00:06:52,360 --> 00:06:57,400 Speaker 1: been perhaps the impact of this strategy on Sweden's economy. 82 00:06:58,880 --> 00:07:06,240 Speaker 1: The impact has been slightly less bad than comparable countries. 83 00:07:07,480 --> 00:07:11,440 Speaker 1: It's not a huge difference, though. We still have pretty 84 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:17,120 Speaker 1: historic PLoP and g d P, and Sweden's economy is 85 00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 1: very reliant on exports, so so no matter how how 86 00:07:23,400 --> 00:07:26,160 Speaker 1: much better we're doing in the domestic economy, we will 87 00:07:26,240 --> 00:07:30,280 Speaker 1: be hurt by by a decrease in in international demand. 88 00:07:31,160 --> 00:07:36,440 Speaker 1: So it may not have been as as different as 89 00:07:36,480 --> 00:07:40,640 Speaker 1: you might think it would would be from from other countries, 90 00:07:40,680 --> 00:07:47,120 Speaker 1: but still slightly less affected than than other countries. You know. 91 00:07:47,600 --> 00:07:50,600 Speaker 1: Looking to the last few months, say the summer months, 92 00:07:51,280 --> 00:07:55,640 Speaker 1: there has been seemingly some good news coming out of Sweden, 93 00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:59,320 Speaker 1: with lower daily death rates or lower reports of new cases. 94 00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:05,040 Speaker 1: Does this perhaps account for changing global opinion about whether 95 00:08:05,160 --> 00:08:11,440 Speaker 1: or not Sweden had the correct strategy all along. Definitely 96 00:08:11,520 --> 00:08:15,560 Speaker 1: that's contributed. I think there's probably two factors behind that. 97 00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:21,960 Speaker 1: One is that we've seen a rapid decrease in transmission, 98 00:08:22,520 --> 00:08:25,520 Speaker 1: number of cases, number of cases in I See you, 99 00:08:27,320 --> 00:08:31,440 Speaker 1: and the number of deaths as well. At the same time, 100 00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:36,319 Speaker 1: I think people are obviously looking at Sweden for clues 101 00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:42,360 Speaker 1: on how to approach this pandemic more long term. And 102 00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:46,000 Speaker 1: that's also the case that's been made by for example, 103 00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:52,959 Speaker 1: w h O experts that after this space of very 104 00:08:53,000 --> 00:08:57,160 Speaker 1: strict lockdowns that may or may not may not have 105 00:08:57,280 --> 00:09:00,040 Speaker 1: been necessary in the early phases of the pandemic to 106 00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:04,280 Speaker 1: really stem the transmission, you now need to look at 107 00:09:04,360 --> 00:09:09,560 Speaker 1: something that's more sustainable that you can hold onto for 108 00:09:09,600 --> 00:09:14,240 Speaker 1: a longer period of time, and that's always been Sweden's approach. 109 00:09:14,480 --> 00:09:19,720 Speaker 1: So Sweden it's more likely to be seen as a 110 00:09:19,760 --> 00:09:24,000 Speaker 1: model at the stage of the pandemic than it was before, 111 00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:30,040 Speaker 1: you know, taking a long look at sweden strategy over 112 00:09:30,120 --> 00:09:33,600 Speaker 1: the last six months or even longer, there has always 113 00:09:33,640 --> 00:09:37,520 Speaker 1: been this question of whether the intent behind this policy 114 00:09:37,840 --> 00:09:41,520 Speaker 1: was to achieve herd immunity. Do you think this was 115 00:09:42,040 --> 00:09:45,160 Speaker 1: part of the strategy overall, or do you think that 116 00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:48,319 Speaker 1: there's much more broader factors at play. I mean, if 117 00:09:48,320 --> 00:09:51,160 Speaker 1: you listen to the public health experts in Sweden, they 118 00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:56,520 Speaker 1: have consistently denied that her immunity was the aim of 119 00:09:56,559 --> 00:10:01,680 Speaker 1: the strategy. They have said, why it may be the 120 00:10:01,760 --> 00:10:07,280 Speaker 1: case that sweden strategy will lead to bigger transmission and 121 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:13,400 Speaker 1: therefore more immunity, that has never been the primary target. 122 00:10:14,520 --> 00:10:17,400 Speaker 1: I mean, some critics have questioned that and called it 123 00:10:17,440 --> 00:10:20,800 Speaker 1: a stealth strategy, but the official line is that her 124 00:10:20,880 --> 00:10:26,360 Speaker 1: immunity is not part of the strategy. And after a 125 00:10:26,440 --> 00:10:29,480 Speaker 1: few months into the pandemic, I think it was clear 126 00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:33,600 Speaker 1: to public health experts here as well that this virus 127 00:10:33,760 --> 00:10:39,520 Speaker 1: wasn't really behaving in the way that previous similar viruses have. 128 00:10:39,840 --> 00:10:45,119 Speaker 1: So the idea that the virus would be spreading widely 129 00:10:45,880 --> 00:10:50,240 Speaker 1: throughout society society and that a large portion of the 130 00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:56,120 Speaker 1: population would be infected within a reasonably short period of 131 00:10:56,160 --> 00:11:01,040 Speaker 1: time wasn't really how this panned out. Instead, it's been 132 00:11:01,080 --> 00:11:05,520 Speaker 1: more about very local outbreaks and so called cluster or transmission, 133 00:11:06,240 --> 00:11:10,120 Speaker 1: which makes it much harder to reach that level of 134 00:11:10,679 --> 00:11:16,400 Speaker 1: immunity and the population, and so recently public health experts 135 00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:20,800 Speaker 1: here have have stressed that we don't have the levels 136 00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:26,960 Speaker 1: of immunity that protects us from further outbreaks. Now that 137 00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:30,160 Speaker 1: we're looking to the end of summer and oncoming flu 138 00:11:30,280 --> 00:11:34,199 Speaker 1: season the start of a new school year, how iswen 139 00:11:34,480 --> 00:11:39,360 Speaker 1: looking ahead to say, the fall or winter um with 140 00:11:39,360 --> 00:11:42,400 Speaker 1: with these elements kind of on the horizon. I think, 141 00:11:42,520 --> 00:11:45,680 Speaker 1: just as in the rest of the world, we're looking 142 00:11:45,679 --> 00:11:50,480 Speaker 1: forward with some prepidation. I mean, the situation right now 143 00:11:50,640 --> 00:11:56,240 Speaker 1: looks pretty positive, but you shouldn't forget also that we 144 00:11:56,360 --> 00:12:01,720 Speaker 1: have we still have more cases than in many other 145 00:12:01,760 --> 00:12:05,960 Speaker 1: countries that had more strict lockdowns, and there will be 146 00:12:07,160 --> 00:12:12,200 Speaker 1: local outbreaks. So we'll see what happens during the fall, 147 00:12:12,640 --> 00:12:16,880 Speaker 1: and the public health authorities will publish their report on 148 00:12:17,480 --> 00:12:23,040 Speaker 1: new guidelines for the fall this week, and there may 149 00:12:23,080 --> 00:12:28,640 Speaker 1: be some reconsidering of things like face mosques, which Swedish 150 00:12:28,960 --> 00:12:32,280 Speaker 1: public Health Agency has been very skeptical of so far 151 00:12:33,840 --> 00:12:36,560 Speaker 1: and have said that there may be a case for 152 00:12:36,800 --> 00:12:41,080 Speaker 1: advising the use of face masks in some situations where 153 00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:51,640 Speaker 1: it's hard or impossible to keep a proper distance. That 154 00:12:52,040 --> 00:12:55,080 Speaker 1: was Nick class Rowlander and that's it for our show Today. 155 00:12:55,360 --> 00:12:58,000 Speaker 1: For coverage of the outbreak from one hundred and bureaus 156 00:12:58,080 --> 00:13:03,160 Speaker 1: around the world, visit bloom dot com slash Coronavirus and 157 00:13:03,320 --> 00:13:05,640 Speaker 1: if you like the show, please leave us a review 158 00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:09,320 Speaker 1: and a rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the 159 00:13:09,360 --> 00:13:12,680 Speaker 1: best way to help more listeners find our global reporting. 160 00:13:13,400 --> 00:13:16,880 Speaker 1: The Prognosis Daily edition is produced by Top for Foreheads 161 00:13:17,000 --> 00:13:22,080 Speaker 1: Jordan Gaspore, Magnus Hendrickson, and me Laura Carlson. Today's main 162 00:13:22,120 --> 00:13:26,200 Speaker 1: story was reported by Nick Las Rolander. Original music by 163 00:13:26,280 --> 00:13:30,240 Speaker 1: Leo Sitran. Our editors are Rick Shine and Francesca Levi. 164 00:13:30,679 --> 00:13:35,320 Speaker 1: Francesca Levi is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening.