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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak here for this Tuesday, the seventh

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Speaker 1: of March in London. Coming up today, Diamond and the

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Speaker 1: Ruff the JP Morgan Bass says a saft landing as

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Speaker 1: possible for warns of dual risks from Ukraine and China.

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Speaker 1: This is she Jing Ping took aim at US policy,

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Speaker 1: calling on firms to overcome Western containment and suppression. Meanwhile

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Speaker 1: in Washington, could time be off for the Chinese own

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Speaker 1: social network TikTok? Putting the sun in sunac, connect the

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Speaker 1: stocks and Bailey's twenty percent cocktail of risk. Those are

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Speaker 1: the stories we're looking at in today's papers. I'm James

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Speaker 1: Walcock plus making it Rain Elsewhere Goldman's Golden Goose Trader

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Speaker 1: Joe Montesano says he's leaving to take a break. That's

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Speaker 1: all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe. The business news

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Speaker 1: you need to start your day in just one fifteen

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Speaker 1: minute podcast on Apple, Spotify, the Bloomberg Business app and

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Speaker 1: everywhere you get your podcasts. Good morning, I'm Stephen Carroll

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Speaker 1: and I'm Caroline Hedger. Here are the stories that we're

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Speaker 1: following today. Ukraine and China are among the top concerns

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Speaker 1: facing the global economy. According to JP Morgan chief Jamie Diamond.

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Speaker 1: In an exclusive interview with Bloomberg, The bank CEO had

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Speaker 1: this to say on the matter, is I'm worry the

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Speaker 1: most about if it's Ukraine, soil gas, so the leadership

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Speaker 1: of the world and you know our relations with China.

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Speaker 1: I mean that is much more serious, blou the economic

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Speaker 1: vibrations you all have to be on a day to

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Speaker 1: day basis. Diamond also told Bloomberg that even though the

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Speaker 1: US consumer is in great shape now, that will end

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Speaker 1: at some point. However, he did offer some cause for optimism,

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Speaker 1: saying as soft landing is still possible for the world's

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Speaker 1: largest economy and well have more of that exclusive interview

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Speaker 1: in a few minutes time. Well. President shi Jingping says

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Speaker 1: China needs to overcome comprehensive containment and suppression led by

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Speaker 1: the United States. According to state media, she told the

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Speaker 1: country's top political advisory body that private firms now need

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Speaker 1: to play a bigger role in establishing technology independence. The

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Speaker 1: view was reflected by China's new Fine Minister Ching Gang,

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Speaker 1: who had this to say on rising tensions with America.

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Speaker 1: The US claims that it seeks to outcompete China, but

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Speaker 1: does not seek conflict. Yet in reality, it's so called

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Speaker 1: competition aims to contain and suppress China in all respects

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Speaker 1: and get the two countries lacked in a zero sum game.

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Speaker 1: China's new fig Minister, speaking there through a translator, Ching Gang,

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Speaker 1: also said that the balloon incident shows that the US

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Speaker 1: is understanding if China is quote seriously distorted. He added

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Speaker 1: that he believes US policy has now entirely deviated from

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Speaker 1: a rational and sound track. The US is moving closer

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Speaker 1: to restricting access to the Chinese video sharing up tech Talk.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg understands the Biden administration is POI to support a

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Speaker 1: new bill on the matter from the Senate Intelligence Committee

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Speaker 1: Chairman Mark Warner. Bloomberg Kayley Lines has the details and

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Speaker 1: what's driving the legislative push. The concern is that by

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Speaker 1: Dance being a Chinese company, then would have that data

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Speaker 1: being shared with the Chinese government. Now, it's important to

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Speaker 1: note by Dance has said it operates independently, that its

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Speaker 1: data is secured through an alliance with Oracle when it

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Speaker 1: comes to US customers, But there's been a significant amount

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Speaker 1: of pushback against that, including from FBI Director Chris Ray,

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Speaker 1: who has said that China controls the algorithm and China

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Speaker 1: can access the data. And so this is the concern

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Speaker 1: here with yet another potential legislation being introduced to prohibit

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Speaker 1: or restrict TikTok in some form, kay Lyons says the

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Speaker 1: measure isn't expected to pinpoint the company by name, but

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Speaker 1: would give the US the power to ban foreign tech

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Speaker 1: or companies when necessary. Okay, so to Corporate News. Now,

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Speaker 1: Goldman Sachs is losing star stock trader Joe Montesano. Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: understands the forty six year old recently told the firm

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Speaker 1: that he's stepping down as head of equities trading for

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Speaker 1: the Americas, but is yet to line up another job.

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Speaker 1: He's among a group of top rainmakers at Goldman whose

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Speaker 1: pay rivaled that of the CEO, David Solomon. Montesano has

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Speaker 1: been key in Goldman's ascent to the number one spot

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Speaker 1: in equities. And here in the UK, the Labor Party

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Speaker 1: says it won't wouldn't cut corporation tax if in government.

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Speaker 1: The issues are Hart topickers where she soon acts government

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Speaker 1: finalizes its budget plans. Bloomberg Samuel Lattie and reports Labors.

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Speaker 1: Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to tele conference she

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Speaker 1: would rather offer investment tax relief for companies than cut

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Speaker 1: their taxes. The potential next chancellor is hitting a nerve

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Speaker 1: as corporate investment is lingering nine percent below pre pandemic levels.

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Speaker 1: Her party are nearly twenty five percentage points ahead of

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Speaker 1: the Conservatives in most polls. Many Tory MPs are pressuring

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Speaker 1: Chancellor Jeremy Hunt to go further and cut business rates

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Speaker 1: in his next budget in London. Samueletian Bloomberg Daybreak Europe. Okay,

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Speaker 1: those are a few of our top stories for you

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Speaker 1: this morning. So there's lots of interest in the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: story around this Goldman sax trader who has earned so

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Speaker 1: much and what he might be doing going forwards. And

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Speaker 1: it's sort of brought to mind another piece that's on

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Speaker 1: the terminal this morning about how we are actually working

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Speaker 1: less than we have done in previous generations, that is,

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Speaker 1: but that people are actually more unhappy. So Alison Schrager

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Speaker 1: has been crunching the numbers on this, and for a

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Speaker 1: weary Tuesday morning, I was quite entertained by it. Her conclusion,

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Speaker 1: after looking at all the data out paid unpaid work

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Speaker 1: leisure time trends over many decades. She basically says, we're

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Speaker 1: perhaps spending too much of our non working time not

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Speaker 1: really relaxing. She points the finger at screen time, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: which is really interesting and kind of feeds into the

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Speaker 1: question of when people actually what people count as they're

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Speaker 1: working out perhaps don't out of their working hours. And

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Speaker 1: does checking your work email, you know, before you go

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Speaker 1: to bed, you know, how does that feed into it?

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Speaker 1: Because I mean, it's interesting that the basis for this

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Speaker 1: study is figures from an NYBR paper which looked at

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Speaker 1: the working hours between nineteen sixty five and two thousand

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Speaker 1: and three. I just for comparison, went and looked at

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Speaker 1: the OECD average working air figures and they've been pretty

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Speaker 1: stable over the past ten fifteen years, so there isn't

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Speaker 1: really any recent trend change to that. The OEC average

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Speaker 1: still thirty seven point two hours. That's for people working

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Speaker 1: in their main jobs across all of the member countries

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Speaker 1: of the OECD, the US a little bit higher than

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Speaker 1: the UK, which is much less than he would have worked,

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Speaker 1: you know, even in the sixties. But but she points

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Speaker 1: out so many interesting things like actually that it's higher

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Speaker 1: earners now who are working more versus in the sixties

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Speaker 1: it would have been sort of more manual labors who

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Speaker 1: are putting in more as I thought that was fascinating. Also,

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Speaker 1: the cold snap in the UK means that the National

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Speaker 1: grid has again put electricity to France sort of unnotice

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Speaker 1: for their call far power station to be kind of

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Speaker 1: warm and ready because it is going to get very cold.

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Speaker 1: Just someth we thought the energy crisis it might be

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Speaker 1: over for this winter, could snap, bringing it right back

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Speaker 1: into focus. Okay, So those are some of the other

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Speaker 1: stories that we are watching for you. Let's bring you

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Speaker 1: a little bit more now. Though from our interview at

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Speaker 1: JP Morgan CEO Jamie Diamond, he believes the US economy

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Speaker 1: could still have a soft landing, both that the FED

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Speaker 1: may have to do more to bring down inflation. He's

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Speaker 1: been speaking to Bloomberg's at Hammond. I think I'm worry

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Speaker 1: the most about it. If you go, it's Ukraine, soil gas,

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Speaker 1: so the leadership of the world and you know our

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Speaker 1: related with China. I mean that is much more serious

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Speaker 1: thou the economic vibrations we all have to deal on

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Speaker 1: a day to day basis on the Ukraine question that

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Speaker 1: we talked about it a lot. Obviously a year ago,

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Speaker 1: very shortly after the war had started. Do you think

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Speaker 1: now a year in that the West has become sort

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Speaker 1: of somewhat inured to the idea of a conflict of

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Speaker 1: this scale on its borders, And if so, does that

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Speaker 1: worry it? Yeah? No, it looks a little bit like

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Speaker 1: people inured to it. But I think that's all a

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Speaker 1: bit a mistake to report the other day that when

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Speaker 1: the war goes to one year, it lasts normally last ten.

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Speaker 1: But this is a major land war in Europe and

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Speaker 1: a freedom democratic nation. You know, the hundreds of thousands

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Speaker 1: of casualties are ready on both sides, and so I

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Speaker 1: think we we don't know how this is going to end,

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Speaker 1: we know what direction is going to take, and it's

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Speaker 1: affecting global relationships, so Ukraine, Russia, then this oil gas

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Speaker 1: food of how it's hurting poorer countries, and it's royally

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Speaker 1: trade relationships between America, China and the rest of the world.

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Speaker 1: So this is a probably the most serious geopolitical thing

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Speaker 1: we've had to deal with since World War Two. Would

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Speaker 1: you full see a future way people could potentially re

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Speaker 1: enter the Russia market as a business. I mean a

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Speaker 1: very premature to say, you know, I think if there

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Speaker 1: is a one day maybe, but it's very possible that

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Speaker 1: woman happened our lifetime. And you mentioned US China relations

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Speaker 1: obviously not at their best right now, particulity posts the balloons.

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Speaker 1: I wonder what role you see business in trying to

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Speaker 1: sort of moderate those relations and try and keep them

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Speaker 1: as as good as possible. Well, you know, it's really

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Speaker 1: the government. The government has to set the rules and

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Speaker 1: fear that they want to do. And I think it's

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Speaker 1: a fair complaint about government and business that we probably

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Speaker 1: should have started re setting this ten years ago and

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Speaker 1: we didn't. I don't like a choir with billed milk

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Speaker 1: and all that. But going forward, the government and I

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Speaker 1: think they're doing a good job thinking through what is

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Speaker 1: national security? So I think it's semiconductors, penicilla and certain drugs.

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Speaker 1: What is unfair trade? And then you know, at one

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Speaker 1: point and sit down and have a very serious conversation

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Speaker 1: with Chinese government. You know, remember Secretary Blincoln was on

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Speaker 1: his way over there to do that, and then the balloon.

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Speaker 1: But at one point they'll do that. And business is

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Speaker 1: a purple player in that so I think I think

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Speaker 1: business will help give advice on how to do things

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Speaker 1: if you're gonna have an outbound investment controls. I just

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Speaker 1: said that way that works, but that's a huge bureaucracy,

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Speaker 1: and so so far all the conversation had been quite

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Speaker 1: rational about it. I mean, jimgan oviously has a significant

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Speaker 1: business in China. I'm sure that the government that would

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Speaker 1: listen to you. What are the conversations you have just

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Speaker 1: about sort of trying to, as I say, trying to

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Speaker 1: maintain as coodial relations as possible between the two nations.

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Speaker 1: I mean, for us, we're there and like I said,

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Speaker 1: you know, we're we're basically taking a backseat to American

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Speaker 1: government in this one, and we're gonna we obviously have

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Speaker 1: to do whatever the American government asked us to do,

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Speaker 1: and we're trying to engage in their coverage of their

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Speaker 1: own government and with the Chinese government and what those

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Speaker 1: things should be. You know, I'm hoping cooler has prevailed here,

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Speaker 1: But this is why Ukraine is so important. This can

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Speaker 1: cause it to go in a bad direction rather quickly. So, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, everyone's got to be some little questions. I

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Speaker 1: just want to talk about the FED for a moment.

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Speaker 1: When do we get to say we're landing, be that

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Speaker 1: hard landing or a soft landing, So when does that

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Speaker 1: begin to a cup? You know, forecasting the futures, as

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Speaker 1: you know, very complicated. The consumer still has a lot

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Speaker 1: more money in their checking accounts than before COVID. They're

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Speaker 1: spending ten percent more last year, forty percent more than

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Speaker 1: pre COVID, and it looks like they'll have excess point

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Speaker 1: to spend roughly until the end of the year. And

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Speaker 1: at that point, are you can aid it a little

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Speaker 1: bit of a cliff as a soft landing. And also

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Speaker 1: QT has nar start to bite That also is going

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Speaker 1: to happen at one point, probably later this year, and

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Speaker 1: you know that's when you're gonna know what these things do.

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Speaker 1: But you weaken still have a soft landing. Then the

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Speaker 1: other thing about all this economic forecasting is Russia Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: I mean that that can change it dramatically and very

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Speaker 1: very quickly. Do you think absent Russia Ukraine we will

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Speaker 1: have a soft landing. I think it's still possible, but

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Speaker 1: I would I look at possibilities that still possible possible.

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Speaker 1: I think mild recessions possible. Harder recessions possible. I think

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Speaker 1: it's a good chance that inflation they'll come down, but

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Speaker 1: not enough by the fourth quarter that FED may actually

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Speaker 1: have to do more. And I think a lot of

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Speaker 1: things that happened in the world think of bigger trends

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Speaker 1: are inflationary. That was JP Morgan's CEO, Amy Diamond, speaking

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Speaker 1: to Bloomberg's Ed Hammond. Up next, putting the Sun in

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Speaker 1: Sinak Connects the Stucks and Bailey's twenty percent cocktail of Risk.

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Speaker 1: Now the Paper review on blue birdday Break Europe, the

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Speaker 1: news you need to know from today's papers blogs. James

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Speaker 1: joins us in studio now to get into the details.

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Speaker 1: Richie Sunac has given this exclusive interview to The Sun

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Speaker 1: about small boats. Yes, Caroline, so it comes as Sweller

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Speaker 1: Brabin's in Parliament later to date into this illegal migration bill.

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Speaker 1: It's one of Sunak's top five pledges for government to

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Speaker 1: stop these small boats and for the government it's a

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Speaker 1: real issuip that they've been fed to tackle for a

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Speaker 1: very long time. Net migration hit half a million last year,

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Speaker 1: a record, and for small boats people coming over in

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Speaker 1: those it was forty five thousand, so it's not a

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Speaker 1: small amount of people and it's something the Concernatis have

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Speaker 1: pledged to stop. But one of the issues they have

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Speaker 1: is with this new bill. As Sunak has said to

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Speaker 1: The Sun, any migrants arriving most we banned from claiming

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Speaker 1: assignment or using any rights ort to stop their removal

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Speaker 1: and they will be deported now. As our very own

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Speaker 1: Terres Raphael points out, there is an issue with that

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Speaker 1: and there is as yet nowhere to deport them too.

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Speaker 1: There is still a Supreme Court decision awaiting on any

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Speaker 1: kind of deal with Rwanda that's been talked about in

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Speaker 1: the past, and Terres also adds in there is a

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Speaker 1: much bigger issue here of processing in the Home Office.

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Speaker 1: If you are going to have this kind of issues

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Speaker 1: with asylum seekers, you need to be able to process

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Speaker 1: them much faster the migration services. You point out that

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Speaker 1: it took twenty months on average to give an initial

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Speaker 1: decision on the Sylum claim filed in twenty twenty one.

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Speaker 1: That in Joremany that's seven months, in France that's nine.

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Speaker 1: So it is a very sort of bullish statement of

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Speaker 1: the race in one of the UK's most popular papers,

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Speaker 1: The Sun. But there are still a lot of details

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Speaker 1: to unpick here, all ahead of Sunak being in Frances

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Speaker 1: Friday for a big suming with Macron, who is the

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Speaker 1: other key player in this migration crisis. Okay, that's in

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Speaker 1: the sun today. Let's turn into the amount of times

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Speaker 1: next taking interest in Switzerland's stuck connect program connected outs

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Speaker 1: for as day. So Stephen, we need to understand something

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Speaker 1: about a global depository receipt So that is where a company,

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Speaker 1: rather than undertaking a full listing in another indicase, gives

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Speaker 1: receipts out so another region can buy into this listing

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Speaker 1: without actually having to sort of be under the full

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Speaker 1: rules of the exchange. So when Switzerland you can have

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Speaker 1: this way where a lot of Chinese companies nine in fact,

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Speaker 1: raised three point two billion dollars on the Swiss Stock

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Speaker 1: Exchange last year, and that is far more than they've

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Speaker 1: ever raised in New York or and in London in

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Speaker 1: the previous time period. So what is happening here is

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Speaker 1: a lot of Chinese company are looking to get more

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Speaker 1: exposure to Europe, but they don't necessarily want to have

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Speaker 1: the same level of kind of exposure in terms of

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Speaker 1: auditing risk. They used to go to London. But London

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Speaker 1: has now said they want far more auditing of these companies,

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Speaker 1: whereat Switzerland hasn't. So Switzerland has becoming the beneficiary of

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Speaker 1: this move. It's not all good news for Switzerland though.

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Speaker 1: One executive at Arrival Exchange told the FT that Switzerland

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Speaker 1: is very much at a risk of becoming a Chinese

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Speaker 1: market with all that money in there from one particular region.

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Speaker 1: If something would go wrong, that there's a big downside

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Speaker 1: risk for them. Yeah, that's a very interesting story, isn't it.

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Speaker 1: Andrew Bailey meanwhile warning MPs about the risk in the

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Speaker 1: insurance market. Yesterday The Times writes up that piece. Now

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Speaker 1: this has been a long running Brexit story. Caroline Solvency

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Speaker 1: two is this idea if you've got to have capital

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Speaker 1: buffers in the insurance industry and under the Chance of

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Speaker 1: Edinburgh reforms that that was set to be loosened. It's

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Speaker 1: something the PRAA, the Projectial Regulation Authority and Andrew Bailey,

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Speaker 1: the government bank villains have kind of fought and lost

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Speaker 1: the battle on and so the numbers he told the

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Speaker 1: MPs yesterday are if you do this, which it's all

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Speaker 1: like you're going to happen. The probability of failure and

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Speaker 1: leaving insurance company goes up by twenty percent, so from

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Speaker 1: no point five percent to nor point six percent. Those

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Speaker 1: seem like small numbers, but you've got to remember Equitable

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Speaker 1: Life in two thousand completely collapsed and that left the

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Speaker 1: government with a one point five billion bill. So what

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Speaker 1: Bailey is effectively saying is you are upping your risk

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Speaker 1: in a small, tiny way and that may be a

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Speaker 1: worrying signal. One thing I want to add is in

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Speaker 1: a speech in February, PR chief Andrew Woods said this

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Speaker 1: comparedite so much UK is a new one which he's

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Speaker 1: shortened to suck. So you can see how central bankers

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Speaker 1: are feeling about this policy. They see as a slightly

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Speaker 1: risky thing, but they also this is what the government

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Speaker 1: decided and it's expected to free up one hundred billion

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Speaker 1: in investment over every year. So it is there are

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Speaker 1: pros and cons, and the Government of self on the pros.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe. You're a morning brief on

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Speaker 1: the stories making news from London to Wall streets and beyond.

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Speaker 1: also listen live each morning on London DAB Radio, the

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Speaker 1: York station, is also available on your Amazon Alexa devices.

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Speaker 1: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. I'm Caroline Hipka

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Speaker 1: and I'm Stephen Carroll. Join us again tomorrow morning for

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Speaker 1: all the news you need to start your day right

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Speaker 1: here on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe