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Speaker 1: Brought you by Bank of America Mary Lynch. Investing in

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Speaker 1: local communities, economies and a sustainable future. That's the power

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Speaker 1: of global connections. Mary Lynch, Pierce Fenner, and Smith Incorporated

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Speaker 1: Member s I p C. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm Tom Keene with David Gura. Daily we bring you

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Speaker 1: insight from the best of economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

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Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com,

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Speaker 1: and of course, on the Bloomberg David Gura in New York.

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Speaker 1: Tom Keene is in London this week and our focus

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Speaker 1: today is squarely on Washington. The White House released a

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Speaker 1: statement yesterday just after five three dpm quote President Donald J.

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Speaker 1: Trump informed FBI Director James Comy that he has been

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Speaker 1: terminated and removed from office. Director Comy reportedly was surprised

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Speaker 1: by that news. He was in Los Angeles speaking to

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Speaker 1: FBI agents when he saw that news on a TV screen.

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Speaker 1: Only later did he get a letter from the President

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Speaker 1: making it official. There are at this point a lot

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Speaker 1: of questions about timing. In particular, James Comy was three

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Speaker 1: years into a ten year term. Why this happened now

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Speaker 1: James Comy overseeing an investigation into Russia's involvement into the

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Speaker 1: U S presidential election. Another big question is what happens

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Speaker 1: to that investigation now that James Comy is out of

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Speaker 1: a job. We'll get perspective on this story throughout the

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Speaker 1: morning here on Bloomberg surveillance of our reporters, from outside

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Speaker 1: analysts as well, and of course we'll bring you the

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Speaker 1: news and insights on markets in the economy you expect

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Speaker 1: from Bloomberg Surveillance. Marvin Barth with us with Barclay's here

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Speaker 1: in London and joining me in our radio studios in London.

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Speaker 1: We say particular good morning to London Radio, thrilled that

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Speaker 1: you're listening to us across all of um, this nation's capital. Marvin, Uh,

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Speaker 1: I guess there's no effect on the markets except the

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Speaker 1: ape has moved in the last hour. It was a

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Speaker 1: flat tape and now there's a little bit of a

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Speaker 1: tinge of risk off to it. Do you just assume,

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Speaker 1: as the thought comes into place over the momentous UH

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Speaker 1: news in Washington, that will affect markets? Well, I think

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Speaker 1: what did we learn from this? Uh? We learned from

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Speaker 1: this that President Trump is predictably unpredictable. UH. And that's

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Speaker 1: something that we already knew. Uh. Is this actually going

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Speaker 1: to affect any of the economic policies that markets are

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Speaker 1: are trading on. There are some considerations suggesting that this

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Speaker 1: is going to somehow affect his ability to move through legislation.

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Speaker 1: I'm not convinced about that. UM. We've seen him stumble before, UH,

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Speaker 1: and UH been disowned by fellow Republicans, and yet he's

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Speaker 1: able to come back. UM. Also remember on the key

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Speaker 1: things that markets have been focused on, things like tax reform, UH,

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Speaker 1: financial regulation reform. Those are the type to things where

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Speaker 1: Republicans in Congress and in the Senate have their own

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Speaker 1: incentives to get these past. And and David gerg Greg

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Speaker 1: Vill you just saying on surveillance on Bloomberg Television he

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Speaker 1: really thinks this will completely delay tax reform into next year.

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Speaker 1: Marvin Bart, how do you bake that uncertainty into your

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Speaker 1: outlook for the dollar at the unpredictability of this president. Uh,

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Speaker 1: that's an excellent question. So we take a base base case,

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Speaker 1: but you know, I would argue that we have the

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Speaker 1: greatest level of uncertainty over US policy in multiple dimensions

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Speaker 1: not just fiscal monetary trade, UH, foreign policy, immigration policy

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Speaker 1: that we've had since at least the Roosevelt administration. And

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Speaker 1: so one of the things I'm very clear on highlighting

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Speaker 1: to our clients is that there are significant alternative scenarios

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Speaker 1: that would lead to very different dollar outcomes. We have

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Speaker 1: to present a base case forecast, so we work off

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Speaker 1: one that our U S economists have developed about as

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Speaker 1: back at being passed and hitting the system in the

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Speaker 1: first quarter of next year. Mario dragging now speaking in

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Speaker 1: the Hague talking to members of the House in the Netherlands,

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Speaker 1: what do you expect he has to say today, Marvin,

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Speaker 1: what's he gonna talk about with regard to ECB policy.

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Speaker 1: I don't think we should expect any sort of deviation

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Speaker 1: from the message that he gave it UH the policy

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Speaker 1: or Governing Council meeting last week. UM. You know, they're

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Speaker 1: still on on course UH to almost certainly change the

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Speaker 1: forward guidance in the June statement UH and then moved

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Speaker 1: to start removing some of the accommodation that they've provided,

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Speaker 1: both through a decline in the pace of of purchases

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Speaker 1: UH next year UH and also a move in UH

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Speaker 1: the deposit rate back up towards zero from the minus

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Speaker 1: forty business points. Does he give a nod to the

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Speaker 1: election in France? I don't think he wants to make

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Speaker 1: this political, so I think he's going to avoid that

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Speaker 1: and had that. I mean, one of the things that

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Speaker 1: is amazing about the president Drackey, Um, he hits all

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Speaker 1: three bases in what you really need in a central banker.

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Speaker 1: He is a great economist who actually understands, um, what's

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Speaker 1: going only uh, he understands markets, so he's great at

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Speaker 1: playing market strategist and getting markets to do what he

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Speaker 1: wants them to do. And then the third piece is

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Speaker 1: he's a fantastic politician that keeps the pressure off the

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Speaker 1: e c B. This is not something he wants to

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Speaker 1: delve into. I look at it. I loved your question, David. Um.

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Speaker 1: He's very good at what not to say exactly, and

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Speaker 1: I think he gets a lot of practice in the

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Speaker 1: press conferences. From where you're sitting in London. Should the

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Speaker 1: Fed do a drag and have a press conference every

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Speaker 1: time around? Well, Tom, you know that I came from

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Speaker 1: the Greenspan FED and I was always a fan of Greenspan.

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Speaker 1: I know that a lot of people have um, you know,

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Speaker 1: lost some of their respect post crisis, but he did

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Speaker 1: exactly the same thing. You remember that that famous interchange

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Speaker 1: in his Senate testimony where uh, he was asked a

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Speaker 1: question and the ascender said, I think I understood what

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Speaker 1: she said, and he said, then I must have misspoken.

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Speaker 1: That is the classic way of manage manages. I do

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Speaker 1: think that we've gone a long way towards transparency, but

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Speaker 1: I do think that transparency gets a little bit in

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Speaker 1: the way, especially when there is a need for central

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Speaker 1: bankers to create some constructive ambiguity. Very good, Marvin Burt,

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Speaker 1: Thank you so much for your time this morning, Very valuable,

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Speaker 1: particularly the backdrop in context of Washington, David and all

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Speaker 1: you're reading this morning, and you know, I've done the

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Speaker 1: same thing, folks. We've been up for hours covering this

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Speaker 1: real history and watching and what's the thing that really

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Speaker 1: captured your attention just the way that this is done.

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Speaker 1: I mean, we were familiar with Donald Trump uttering you're

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Speaker 1: fired from his time on The Apprentice, but this was

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Speaker 1: done via letter, a short, terse letter from the President

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Speaker 1: that was delivered after after director Comey learned the news

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Speaker 1: second hand watching it on television. I think a lot

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Speaker 1: of people still just perplexed flummix by how this went down.

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Speaker 1: I saw a single tweet from Jeff Flake of Arizona,

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Speaker 1: and you really wonder how many more of those we're

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Speaker 1: gonna see. Jeff like, how more difficulty he admits that

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Speaker 1: finding out why this happened and why it happened. Now

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Speaker 1: there are the nuances of different Republican responses of those

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Speaker 1: with their office threatened by close context. Contests to come,

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Speaker 1: and so you'll be fascinating in the coming days. Thanks

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Speaker 1: to our Kevin Surillian all of our team forgetting us

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Speaker 1: ready for Bloomberg surveillance this morning. David Guray in New York,

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Speaker 1: Tom Keene in London, this is Bloomberg surveillance on Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: critic Continuing to follow the story out of Washington, d C.

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Speaker 1: President Trump firing FBI director James called me the president

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Speaker 1: tweeting just moments ago. The Democrats have said some of

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Speaker 1: the worst things about James Comey, including the fact that

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Speaker 1: he should be fired. But now they play so sad.

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Speaker 1: Recent tweet there from the President of the United States, Uh,

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Speaker 1: Greg Llier out with his morning bullets. Note something we

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Speaker 1: read every morning here at Bloomberg surveillance, and he says

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Speaker 1: this is a political earthquake and the aftershocks will persist

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Speaker 1: for the rest of Trump's presidency. Greg Vllier. Greg put

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Speaker 1: this a disent perspective for us. We look back at history,

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Speaker 1: look for analogs. How unprecedented is what we saw yesterday.

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Speaker 1: It's a pretty big deal. David, I'm not sure I'm

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Speaker 1: buying into the impeachment story, but some Democrats are flogging

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Speaker 1: But I will buy into this one Watergate analogy. That is,

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Speaker 1: there's blood in the water. There's a sense of a

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Speaker 1: presidency that's in real trouble, with reporters looking for the

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Speaker 1: next bombshell, with Trump's allies abandoning him. That that does

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Speaker 1: look like Watergate. And I gotta say, I think for

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Speaker 1: the country as a whole, the specter of a crippled

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Speaker 1: presidency is not a good story. What happens from here?

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Speaker 1: We had the FBI director overseeing an investigation into Russia's

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Speaker 1: involvement in the U. S. Presidential election, perhaps looking times

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Speaker 1: between Russia and this administration. What happens to that investigation

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Speaker 1: now just a process question. Yeah, I think in terms

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Speaker 1: of what to look for coming up three things very quickly.

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Speaker 1: Is there a special prosecutor probably that will continue this

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Speaker 1: story for months and months to come. Secondly, who does

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Speaker 1: Trump appoint to head the FBI? If it's a political

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Speaker 1: crony like Rudy Giuliani or Chris Christie, that would just

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Speaker 1: inflame this story. And I think you've got to say that.

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Speaker 1: The other big story is will Republicans stick by him?

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Speaker 1: And I'm not sure they will. I don't know if

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Speaker 1: you saw this, David, but we have a second tweet

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Speaker 1: from uh, the president. I think we maybe just got

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Speaker 1: a new one. Hold on, I'm clinking. No, No, we

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Speaker 1: did not get one. Oh yeah, here James Jason Tommy

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Speaker 1: will be replaced by someone who will do a far

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Speaker 1: better job bringing back the spirit and prestige of the FBI.

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Speaker 1: We don't we don't speculate, Mr val here at Bloomberg surveillance,

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Speaker 1: but clearly others were speculating overnight that this was a

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Speaker 1: president that sorely misjudged the constitutional discussion or the law

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Speaker 1: discussion of this firing. Do you agree with that? Yes?

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Speaker 1: I did. I mean, you just can't say you're fired

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Speaker 1: like he did on reality television. I mean, there's a

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Speaker 1: lot of constitutional and political considerations at play here, and

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Speaker 1: I think he didn't sell us his own people didn't

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Speaker 1: go out and aggressively defend him for the first three

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Speaker 1: or four hours after the firing. As usualis was handled

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Speaker 1: in an amateurish way. Yeah, some startling photos last night

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Speaker 1: after this announcement was made. Reporter was hounding Sewn Spice

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Speaker 1: or the White House Press secretary on the lawn of

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Speaker 1: the White House. He'd done an interview with Fox News. Uh,

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Speaker 1: they wanted answers as well. They were out there in

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Speaker 1: this we have unlit seen by the TV cameras out

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Speaker 1: at the at the White House. You pose a question

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Speaker 1: your note this morning. I think it's an important one.

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Speaker 1: What does this mean for the markets? What does this

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Speaker 1: mean for the president's agenda going forward? This is a story,

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Speaker 1: this story about Russia. The administration has not been shy

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Speaker 1: about wanting to do see disappear. Well, you've got to

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Speaker 1: say it. On the one hand. On the other hand,

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Speaker 1: on the one hand, the fundamentals look fine. Moderate GDP growth,

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Speaker 1: moderate inflation, moderate interest rates, good corporate earnings. On the

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Speaker 1: other hand, I think there's two things to worry about.

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Speaker 1: One is the big story that we have a presidency

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Speaker 1: that's already looking crippled. The other is more specific, and

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Speaker 1: that is what would happen to the Trump agenda. And

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Speaker 1: I think you have to declare that tax reform is

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Speaker 1: dead for this year. I still think we'll get it

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Speaker 1: next year. But this is such a huge distraction that

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Speaker 1: the Trump agenda I think installed. Greg, what are Republican senators?

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Speaker 1: Do we? You and I talked about this earlier this morning.

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Speaker 1: And there's there's people that have stepped forward, Jeff Lake,

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Speaker 1: and you're in Arizona right now, and there's others as well.

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Speaker 1: But is a group they all get together and I

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Speaker 1: have a planner? Is it every senator for themselves? I

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Speaker 1: think a lot of them have to thinking about their

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Speaker 1: own reelection, their own career. Marco Rubio was sort of noncommittal.

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Speaker 1: Others has expected like McCain were very critical. I do

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Speaker 1: think Tom that over a dozen Senate Republicans will come

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Speaker 1: out harshly against Trump. That doesn't help Trump. It'll be Greg,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much, and short notice. In Arizona. U

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Speaker 1: smarter than us seas in Arizona. David, that's a good thing.

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Speaker 1: We have no rain. It's been raining, like you know,

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Speaker 1: every day, it seems for the last five days, and

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Speaker 1: the sojourn in Europe as well. David, My observation of

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Speaker 1: all this is, I am very dangerous in linking back

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Speaker 1: the three That is the gut reaction of those of

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Speaker 1: us that went through Watergate, and that's hazardous. We gotta

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Speaker 1: be real careful about linkages to another time and place.

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Speaker 1: This is, this is its own story. The context matters,

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Speaker 1: of course, that that broke two years into a presidency,

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Speaker 1: a lot of people drawing that at that parallel. This

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Speaker 1: morning brought you by Bank of America Mary Lynch, dedicated

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Speaker 1: to bringing our clients insights and solutions to meet the

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Speaker 1: challenges of a transforming world. That's the power of global connections.

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Speaker 1: key people mentioned in the story. It's called Lens, and

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Speaker 1: it is just that, a lens into the people and

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Speaker 1: Lens brings you the power of Bloomberg's news and data.

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Speaker 1: more at Bloomberg dot com slash Lens joining us now

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Speaker 1: in London. This is a special treat Wendy Carlin. Her

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Speaker 1: textbook is iconic. There's no other way to put it.

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Speaker 1: Simon wren Lewis, the giant of Oxford, says, this new

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Speaker 1: Carlin book is almost enough to make me wish I

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Speaker 1: was still teaching macroeconomics. As kind comments from Simon, Wendy Carlin,

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Speaker 1: you have a special mission, which is the education of

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Speaker 1: the public on economics. It's not the fancy algebra of

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Speaker 1: your textbook, but it's getting high school kids motivated. How

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Speaker 1: are we going to do that? I think we're going

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Speaker 1: to do it by getting them to see to, first

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Speaker 1: of all, think about how did the world come to

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Speaker 1: things we can do is to introduce them to some

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Speaker 1: some really exciting data. Take them back to the year

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Speaker 1: one thousand and see that for hundreds of years, the

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Speaker 1: up in living standards between regions of the world, which

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Speaker 1: how do we move from this sort of flat world

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Speaker 1: of the first year of economics, we just do away

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Speaker 1: with it, well, we can certainly do away with the

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Speaker 1: tedium of it. And what we can do is to

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Speaker 1: me bring in my colleague David Gura in New York,

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Speaker 1: who has never read Carlin Saska, to keep making making

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Speaker 1: fun there of of the algebra a little bit. When

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Speaker 1: when you talk to students today who are interested in economics,

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Speaker 1: that for you? And how do we overcome that. The

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Speaker 1: tools of economics in different ways, requiring different levels of

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Speaker 1: mathematical sophistication. And what we've done with this online new

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Speaker 1: Core econ online E text, which is free to everyone

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Speaker 1: in the world, is to put the maths behind a button.

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Speaker 1: So there's a button called Leibnitz. You might say, why

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Speaker 1: do we pick Leibnitz and not Newton? The answer is

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Speaker 1: by the flip of a coin, so you don't have

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Speaker 1: the algebra in your face, and you can come into

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Speaker 1: feeling intimidated by lots of maths. What's the biggest deficit

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Speaker 1: you see when you when you look at students today,

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Speaker 1: what are they what are they not getting about economics?

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Speaker 1: What do you hope to impart to students today? Well,

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Speaker 1: one of the things we are not getting in in

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Speaker 1: some ways is we're not getting into economics all the

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Speaker 1: students who who we can? So, along with computer science

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Speaker 1: and engineering, economics attracts fewer women, so who So one

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Speaker 1: thing is to make the subject really attractive to to students.

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Speaker 1: And that's the way we can do that is too

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Speaker 1: for them to see it as a as a kind

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Speaker 1: of a source of empowerment, of a way of really

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Speaker 1: understanding the world. Uh, And that's kind of on our

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Speaker 1: side as economists. It's a very exciting story. It's a

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Speaker 1: it's a really powerful tool for understanding what's going on

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Speaker 1: out there. And and that's uh, that's something that I

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Speaker 1: think should be our top selling point. I think you

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Speaker 1: should come see us someday when we don't have a

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Speaker 1: firing of a director the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Professor Carlin,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much for being with us. Thank you,

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Speaker 1: I appreciate she's professor at u c L and a

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Speaker 1: close her macroeconomics folks. Sixty pages with an equation every

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Speaker 1: three paragraphs. I may be wrong it maybe every two

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Speaker 1: point eight paragraphs. Math warning. I'll put that out on

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Speaker 1: Twitter for those of you brave enough to take it upon.

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Speaker 1: Wendy Carlin again at U C L. David Gurrow, My

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Speaker 1: good morning on Twitter will be about the FBI and

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Speaker 1: the many agents that have died in uh service to

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Speaker 1: the FBI. Uh. My photo that I'll use is centered

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Speaker 1: on Truett E. Roe. He died at thirty three years

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Speaker 1: old in nineteen seven. And it was what they do

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Speaker 1: every day. He was grinding it out in a basic

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Speaker 1: investigation in Oklahoma, and uh, you know, there's there's there's

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Speaker 1: all this highbrow political talk, but that's what they do

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Speaker 1: every day. Yeah. And just a fascinating new book I'm

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Speaker 1: kind of halfway through now by David Grant, who's a

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Speaker 1: staff writer for the New Yorker magazine. He's written about

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Speaker 1: the early days of the FBI. It's but called Killers

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Speaker 1: of the Flower Moon in American Crime in the Birth

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Speaker 1: of the FBI. Can't recommend that book enough. But this

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Speaker 1: is a storied institution. As you say, absolutely, why don't

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Speaker 1: you bring in her esteemed guest, no doubt ready to

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Speaker 1: write up a storm and give us a surveillance break. Sclus.

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Speaker 1: There we go Eli like a columnist for bloomberoviewska Eli.

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Speaker 1: First of all, just to situate James Comey in the

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Speaker 1: environs of Washington, d C. Back in March, he wrote

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Speaker 1: here that he was the most powerful man in Washington.

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Speaker 1: What role was he playing? Well, wrote that because I

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Speaker 1: had assumed that after he announced an ongoing counter intelligence

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Speaker 1: probe into the Trump campaign and its ties to Russia,

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Speaker 1: there was no sensible political way that he could be

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Speaker 1: fired at that point. And boy was I wrong, because

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Speaker 1: he was just fired, and that, as I think, caused

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Speaker 1: not a constitutional crisis, but certainly a political one. And

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Speaker 1: uh we we are really in uncharted waters because, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, Comey has made and we shouldn't start a

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Speaker 1: tear for Comy. He has made a number of errors

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Speaker 1: and has earned um enemies on both sides of the aisle.

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Speaker 1: But at the same time, this appears in some ways

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Speaker 1: to come out of the blue. The timing is bizarre,

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Speaker 1: the reasoning is somewhat bizarre considering, uh, you know, all

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Speaker 1: of the errors on the Hillary side, for the most part,

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Speaker 1: were uh seized upon by the Trump campaign. In the

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Speaker 1: final weeks and days of the election. Uh so, and

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Speaker 1: you know the transition. If this was the issue, why

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Speaker 1: didn't he fire Tomy? Then that said? What I think

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Speaker 1: we will all start focusing on is the line from

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Speaker 1: Trump to Comey in the letter where he fires him, saying,

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Speaker 1: you've informed me three times I was not under investigation.

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Speaker 1: That's news because, Ay, why didn't Comey say that publicly

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Speaker 1: when he announced the counterintelligence probe? And b is that

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Speaker 1: still true? Because it seems to me that you know,

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Speaker 1: when you have a grand jury and paneled a CNN

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Speaker 1: is reporting last night on Michael Flynn. Um, you know,

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Speaker 1: does this eventually do it end up going to the president?

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Speaker 1: And we don't really know. Um. The irony here is

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Speaker 1: that I felt the substance of the Russia probe was

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Speaker 1: beginning to peter out. The more we were learning about it,

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Speaker 1: the more we realized it really did deal with figures

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Speaker 1: who were no longer in Trump's inner circle, people like

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Speaker 1: Paul Manafford and Carter Page. Um, and there was beginning

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Speaker 1: to We're beginning to sort of see, Okay, let's get

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Speaker 1: this in perspective and let the FBI do its job.

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Speaker 1: And now it has become once again the center of

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Speaker 1: the of of Washington's Uh, you know, of our politics.

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Speaker 1: And in this sense, if Trump was trying to get

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Speaker 1: the trying to move beyond the Russa probe, Uh, this

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Speaker 1: action has accomplished the opposite. Is there any chance here

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Speaker 1: that this investigation, the FBI investigation, withers on the vine

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Speaker 1: as a result of of Mr Comey being removed from

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Speaker 1: that position. I look at what to Republican senators are

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Speaker 1: saying this morning. I Senator John McCain actually last evening

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Speaker 1: tweeting removal of Director Comy only confirms the need for

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Speaker 1: a select committee to investigate Russia's interference in the two

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Speaker 1: thousand sixteen election. Does this um shift shift the balance

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Speaker 1: of power a little bit? Does? It doesn't make it

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Speaker 1: more incumbent on Congress to to to lead this investigation. Well,

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Speaker 1: there are a couple of ways this could go. This

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Speaker 1: could go. I mean, one thing is a bipartisan nine

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Speaker 1: eleven style commission that looks at everything having to do

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Speaker 1: with the Russian interference in the election. Uh. And I

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Speaker 1: actually am beginning I'm now of the view that that's

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Speaker 1: what they should do, because we do need to have

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Speaker 1: a common set of facts where Democrats and Republicans and

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Speaker 1: everybody can look to and say, all right, this is

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Speaker 1: what happened, and we can get beyond this, because the

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Speaker 1: legitimacy of Trump's presidency is really called into question by

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Speaker 1: all of this. Now Comy called the legitimacy in the

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Speaker 1: question when he confirmed on the record the counterintelligence program.

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Speaker 1: He never understood why he did that, but it's now

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Speaker 1: even less legitimate. So that's very important. Because Trump won

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Speaker 1: the election, he has the right to govern, uh and

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Speaker 1: and act as a president. I've defended that right and

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Speaker 1: been a little bit on the sort of lonely side

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Speaker 1: of it. But by doing this, by firing the guy

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Speaker 1: who's investigating him, he has now I think weakened his

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Speaker 1: own legitimacy. So it's one of these ironies here, like

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Speaker 1: if the senators are all running, or some senators are running,

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Speaker 1: I should say, from support of the president, could we

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Speaker 1: have a special prosecutor by the weekend or does it

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Speaker 1: take longer than that? I would imagine it would take

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Speaker 1: longer than that, And keep in mind that's a decision

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Speaker 1: for that. I mean, it's not clear what the Attorney general,

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Speaker 1: because he's refused himself from the Rush matter, So that

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Speaker 1: might that's the decision to the Deputy Attorney General to

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Speaker 1: an extent, and I don't know if that's necessarily going

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Speaker 1: to happen at this point. What what do you expect

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Speaker 1: to hear from the White House today? What a sources

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Speaker 1: telling We were talking with Marty Shanker about how much

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Speaker 1: of a surprise this announcement was. Where any sources of

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Speaker 1: you always indicating that something like this might be in

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Speaker 1: the offing. Well, you know, it's a classic Washington reporter

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Speaker 1: situation where you call your sources last night and they

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Speaker 1: tell you, oh, well, there were the signs were there?

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Speaker 1: Look at his tweets. I remember we were talking about this,

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Speaker 1: and I mean, I'm like, well, why didn't you tell

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Speaker 1: me this before? I would have had a great scoop,

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Speaker 1: But um, you know the uh so, I had heard

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Speaker 1: that this is something that you know, was discussed in

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Speaker 1: the inner circle that there was about they were talking

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Speaker 1: about this for about a week before. But it certainly

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Speaker 1: caught Washington by surprise. And what's more surprising was the

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Speaker 1: rationale provided in that memo from the Deputy Attorney General.

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Speaker 1: The one thing I would cost and against this is

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Speaker 1: don't don't make the Watergate analogy just yet, because we

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Speaker 1: still don't know what the crime is, whereas water Dates

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Speaker 1: starts with a very clear prime the third rate burglary,

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Speaker 1: and then we have all the cover up and everything else. Um,

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Speaker 1: so we have to we we should be careful about

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Speaker 1: making that historical analogy. But it is a huge political

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Speaker 1: crisis and it's not going to accomplish what we thought

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Speaker 1: it would. I believe the lie. It's a five tweet morning.

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Speaker 1: Let me go back here, David and countering. This is

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Speaker 1: not including late night tweets one to three, three tweets

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Speaker 1: and two links to the Drudge Report. Is there somebody

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Speaker 1: policing the president? I mean, you know, six weeks ago

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Speaker 1: here hysterical about Bannon. Uh, you know Bannon previous, etcetera.

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Speaker 1: What's your sense of the dynamic within the White House

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Speaker 1: right now? My sense of the dynamic is that is

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Speaker 1: very much like the apprentice, you never know who's in favor.

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Speaker 1: One day he can love you and the next day

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Speaker 1: he can, you know, keep you very much at arm's length.

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Speaker 1: I just wrote about h R. McMaster and the tensions

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Speaker 1: with Trump there, and you know, he the clothes that

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Speaker 1: I got for that and I was, you know, the

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Speaker 1: President loves you know, thinks HR is doing a terrific job.

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Speaker 1: So you know, you never quite know where you stand

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Speaker 1: in Trump Land. Um, you know, but uh, you know, Betton,

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Speaker 1: Remember we thought Bannon was on his way out a

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Speaker 1: month ago, and now it seems like he's back in

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Speaker 1: good stead. Um. So I think that that is shifting

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Speaker 1: all the time. But I would also say this, if

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Speaker 1: they thought that by making this about Tony's handling of Hillary,

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Speaker 1: they would get Democrats sympathy on this, they made an

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Speaker 1: enormous error. Enormous I mean, this is they got it

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Speaker 1: totally wrong. Yeah, there's a there's a tweet I think

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Speaker 1: for Maggie Hayrman of the New York Times trying to

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Speaker 1: find it here quickly she was she was looking at

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Speaker 1: just the way this was rold Actually the White House

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Speaker 1: fired coming with no replacement set, with no clear messaging,

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Speaker 1: and no legal experts or surrogates lined up. And indeed, Ali,

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Speaker 1: you look at the White House schedule here, we have

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Speaker 1: about thirty seconds left with you. There isn't much of

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Speaker 1: an opportunity here for the White House to explain itself.

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Speaker 1: I mean, they need to explain themselves. I mean they've

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Speaker 1: created a crisis. Eli like a foreign policy correspondent to

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Speaker 1: columnists for US a Bloomberg View joining us great to

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Speaker 1: get his perspective, Tom, I mean, I think I think

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Speaker 1: the focus here, to my mind shift to Congress. At

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Speaker 1: least today we're gonna hear from members of the Senate

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Speaker 1: giving general speeches this morning. Imagine a lot of them

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Speaker 1: will center on on what happened last night. Yeah, they'll

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Speaker 1: be the political divide, but the nuances the Republicans are

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Speaker 1: heads whatever they think, and you know, I don't mean

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Speaker 1: to pontificate about it, but David, their heads must be spinning.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Subscribe and

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00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:03,880
Speaker 1: listen to interview us on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever

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00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:07,720
Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keene.

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Speaker 1: David Gura is at David Gura. Before the podcast, you

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Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio, brought you

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Speaker 1: by Bank of America Mary Lynch, dedicated to bringing our

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Speaker 1: clients insights and solutions to meet the challenges of a

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Speaker 1: transforming world. That's the power of global connections. Mary Lynch,

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Speaker 1: Pierce Fetner, and Smith Incorporated, member s I p C,