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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast podcasts.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second.

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Speaker 3: Hello, Welcome to the Action Work Podcast UFC Betting Preview.

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Speaker 3: I'm Sean Zerrulo, joined today by Billy Word to help

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Speaker 3: you break down this weekend's UFC card, your best BET's,

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Speaker 3: favorite underdogs, top props, and more. And if you'd like

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Speaker 3: to instantly tail some of the bets that we discuss

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Speaker 3: on today's show, make sure to find the quick slip

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Speaker 3: links both in the podcast and the video description, or

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Speaker 3: go to Action network dot com slash bet now and

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Speaker 3: with the WNBA season tapping off you if you're an

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Speaker 3: action subscriber, our brand new WNBA projections are available in

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Speaker 3: betting WNBA sides totals or player props, Action Pro projections

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Speaker 3: dot com slash Pro. And with that we're going to

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Speaker 3: jump into these weekends UFC Fight Night main event flyweight

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Speaker 3: division between Aaron Blanchfield currently about minus two to fifty

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Speaker 3: and may see the future Barber at plus two hundred

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Speaker 3: fight around minus two hundred to go to a decision.

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Speaker 3: That's roughly where I would consider betting this fight, maybe

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Speaker 3: up even to minus two fifty to go to a decision.

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Speaker 3: Women's flyweight bouts on average go to decision at about

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Speaker 3: a sixty five percent clip sixty eight percent clip in

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Speaker 3: three round fights. It is up to seventy two percent

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Speaker 3: in five round fights, which self select for more durable fighters.

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Speaker 3: Fighters who make it to five round main events have

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Speaker 3: generally been more durable, got more wins, have not been

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Speaker 3: finished if they're going to progress to that point. So

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Speaker 3: we do see the higher decision rates in five round

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Speaker 3: fights in the same division just because those fighters tend

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Speaker 3: to be more durable, even though the fights are extending

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Speaker 3: an additional ten minutes. But I did this projectives line

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Speaker 3: closer to minus three hundred. In terms of his side,

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Speaker 3: I am very curious how the grappling looks here, and

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Speaker 3: I'm sure you are as well, just because the strength

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Speaker 3: and physicality of Barber could potentially pose issues for Blanchfield.

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Speaker 3: I'm not sure if they will. Blanchfield clearly the better

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Speaker 3: grappler when the fight hits the mat. It's controlled about

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Speaker 3: ninety percent of her grappling positions in the UFC ninety

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Speaker 3: six percent of her grappling time in the UFC, Barber

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Speaker 3: closer to forty percent. So if these two do end

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Speaker 3: up grappling, I expect Lanchfield to get the better of

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Speaker 3: it more top time in this fight. Question is whether

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Speaker 3: Macy is able to scramble out from bottom or cover

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Speaker 3: to her feet and then pour on the volume with

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Speaker 3: superior power down the stretch. Landfield does throw out a

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Speaker 3: lot of volume herself, but I think Barber is going

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Speaker 3: to land the more impactful shots on the feet. I

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Speaker 3: think She's going to look particularly strong in the and

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Speaker 3: just overall she has a little bit more tenacity to

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Speaker 3: her game, tends to be a little bit more aggressive, meaner,

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Speaker 3: and looks like she actually wants to finish the fight

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Speaker 3: where Aaron is going to be controlling position, a little

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Speaker 3: bit more going for submissions but not necessarily drawing blood

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Speaker 3: optics probably from Barber, so I lean to Barber by

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Speaker 3: decision of plus four fifty. I'm going to bet the

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Speaker 3: GTD at minus two hundred. That's not to say I

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Speaker 3: don't show value on Blanchfield by decision. I made her

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Speaker 3: decision line about minus one fifteen. You can bet hur

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Speaker 3: at plus money as well. I would just rather take

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Speaker 3: the woman with longer odds in a fight that I

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Speaker 3: expect to be close and competitive, and hopefully Barber can

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Speaker 3: edge it down the stretch. However, I think you're leaning

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Speaker 3: into the cardio dynamics here, the fact that Barber has

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Speaker 3: not been five rounds, Blanchfield coming off of two five

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Speaker 3: round fights, you prefer her cardio, I would imagine in

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Speaker 3: the fourth and fifth rounds. Because you're betting Blanchefield by

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Speaker 3: round four or five or decision at minus one thirty five,

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Speaker 3: does that Meanbilly that you're also waiting for a live

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Speaker 3: entry potentially on her as well after the first couple

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Speaker 3: of rounds.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, maybe, I mean I don't know that we'll necessarily

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Speaker 1: get a better price if she gets to take down

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Speaker 1: a round one that might be all all week get

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Speaker 1: so I'm not taking too much hope on that actually

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Speaker 1: happening that way. But not only the you know, the

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Speaker 1: cardio and the experience in five round fights, But if

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Speaker 1: you look at Blanchefield's two five round fight, she didn't

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Speaker 1: really have a clear plan on how to manage her

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Speaker 1: gas tank in the first fight, Like she tried some

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Speaker 1: stuff early that didn't really work. Then she was more

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Speaker 1: tired going on kind of never really got going. Against

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Speaker 1: monam Fio, and then against Rosenamuna, she basically just took

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Speaker 1: the first two rounds off and stayed safe and then

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Speaker 1: took over in round three, four and five, which I'm

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Speaker 1: not sure she'll go that exact same plan against Barbara.

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Speaker 1: I think Barber is a little bit too dangerous on

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Speaker 1: the feet to totally coast against. But just seeing how

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Speaker 1: she progressed and having that experience in five rounds, which

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Speaker 1: may see does not, I think is a huge edge.

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Speaker 1: And I actually I was trying to join you even

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Speaker 1: before I saw your pick and find a way to

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Speaker 1: bet Barber get there. But the more you watch tape,

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Speaker 1: it's not that her takedown defense isn't necessarily bad, but

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Speaker 1: you pointed out the ground control time stat she doesn't

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Speaker 1: really get up very well. She spends a lot of

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Speaker 1: time on her back when she's the one who gets

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Speaker 1: taken down. It's not really even looking for submissions all

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Speaker 1: that much. I think she's officially got like two submission

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Speaker 1: attempts in the UFC or something, but she's just kind

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Speaker 1: of not that urgent getting out, and that's against fighters

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Speaker 1: with a lot worse grappling than Aaron Blandfield. So I

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Speaker 1: don't see her improving that here. If I was Macy Barber,

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Speaker 1: I think I would actually wrestle proactively, like she might

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Speaker 1: be able to just size and strength her way into

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Speaker 1: some takedowns and eat some clock that way. You know,

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Speaker 1: you can't put me on your back if I take

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Speaker 1: you down first, kind of situation. I don't think she's

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Speaker 1: gonna do that, though, because it is a dangerous game

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Speaker 1: plan against Landfield. Landfield not a great takedown accuracy rate,

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Speaker 1: but she's gonna keep trying and she'll eventually get one.

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Speaker 1: And pretty much any round she gets a takedown, I

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Speaker 1: think she will win fairly easily against Macy. And yeah,

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Speaker 1: I went with the four or five decision instead of

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Speaker 1: the decision. Not a huge price difference between those two things.

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Speaker 1: On the Blanchfield side, And if Macy's cardio is an

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Speaker 1: issue and she tires in the fourth or fifth round.

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Speaker 1: I could see that being, you know, a late submission

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Speaker 1: for Blanchfield, just because she does hunt those submission attempts.

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Speaker 1: So I am fine with either woman goes to decision

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Speaker 1: as well. That makes a lot of sense. Great price

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Speaker 1: on Macy, which is very tempting, I think if she's

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Speaker 1: gonna win it, though she has a little bit more

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Speaker 1: inside the distance I can look up. A Barber knockout

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Speaker 1: wouldn't shock me here. Like the finish only money line,

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Speaker 1: I don't think was playable. I don't remember what it was,

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Speaker 1: but it wasn't very attractive. So I think there's some

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Speaker 1: a little bit of negative correlation between this fight going

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Speaker 1: long and barbera winning, which is the only thing keeping

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Speaker 1: me off it. But again, I'm poking tiny holes in

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Speaker 1: a plus four fifty bet, so it still makes sense.

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Speaker 1: It's just it was hard for me to mentally see

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Speaker 1: how that happens. I guess is where I ended up

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Speaker 1: on it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, finish only money line, Barber is about plus one

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Speaker 3: thirty Blanchefield minus one seventy. That seems about right considering

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Speaker 3: where their money on pricing is. I would give Barber,

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Speaker 3: you know, straight up out of one hundred percent. I

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Speaker 3: probably give her five to ten percent more finishing upside,

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Speaker 3: but when you compare that to where their money lines are,

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Speaker 3: it makes sense that Blanchfield would still be favored in

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Speaker 3: that market. I think I had one other question for

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Speaker 3: you that I wanted to ask on this fight, but

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Speaker 3: I can't seem to recall what that was. We're gonna

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Speaker 3: move on to the comine event. If it comes to

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Speaker 3: be able, we'll go back to the main event, but

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Speaker 3: both lean goes the decision. I think fine value on

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Speaker 3: either fighter to win by decision. You're gonna go with

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Speaker 3: Blanchfield late props and decision round four or five or

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Speaker 3: decision at minus one thirty five. I'm gonna lay the

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Speaker 3: juice on the GTD at minus two hundred lightweight co

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Speaker 3: made event between Matayish Gambrot minus one sixty five and

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Speaker 3: Ludvick Klein at plus one thirty five. Fairly binary. Gamrock

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Speaker 3: clearly the better wrestler CLIINB the more dynamic, more dangerous striker.

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Speaker 3: That's not to say Gamrock won't be competitive in the striking,

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Speaker 3: that he can't stay safe defensively, but he does seem

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Speaker 3: to get knocked down and basically every fight. Now, which

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Speaker 3: when you're betting a guy on the money line knowing

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Speaker 3: one knockdown one moment could sway around that he was

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Speaker 3: otherwise winning with wrestling control is a little bit difficult

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Speaker 3: to do just because you don't want to watch a

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Speaker 3: guy dominate, you know, thirteen of the fifteen minutes of

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Speaker 3: the fight get knocked down twice and lose on that alone, Like,

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Speaker 3: that's a very frustrating way to bet. But basically that

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Speaker 3: does mean mitaas Gamrot almost needs to fight a perfect

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Speaker 3: fight to win by decision. Not actually, but you know

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Speaker 3: he's probably gonna win the majority of the minutes here.

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Speaker 3: I think Klin is going to need to swing the

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Speaker 3: fight with bigger moments or get a finish now. Something

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Speaker 3: that really stands out about this matchup for Gamroth is

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Speaker 3: Klein's size. Klin is a former featherweight. Gamrot has been

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Speaker 3: fighting RDA, who is a former walterweight walterweight slash lightweight

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Speaker 3: Jalen Turner, who's one of the biggest lightweights in the Vision,

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Speaker 3: could probably compete at walterweight. I do think this is

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Speaker 3: a big size difference for Gamrot relative to his recent opponents.

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Speaker 3: Klein is three inches shorter two inch reach advantage, though

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Speaker 3: in the pocket, I think he's gonna be much more

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Speaker 3: dangerous that range, much more dangerous. It's also young or quicker,

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Speaker 3: five years younger. I'm not sure if you think Gamrod

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Speaker 3: is starting to decline or people are just figuring out

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Speaker 3: his style. That said, both of us like his odds

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Speaker 3: to win inside the distance. You like him by submission.

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Speaker 3: I like him ITTD at plus six hundred. I think

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Speaker 3: there's value on clin to win by decision given the

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Speaker 3: facts that are already laid out at plus three thirty,

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Speaker 3: if you want to go that route. But if you're

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Speaker 3: gonna bet the gamra outside, I would bet him to

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Speaker 3: finish the fight. What did you see between this you here, Billy,

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Speaker 3: why do you think Gamrock is capable of finishing climb

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Speaker 3: considering he's not normally a finisher. That we did have

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Speaker 3: that beautiful knee on the ground against the CDF, I

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Speaker 3: think it was he finished. So Gamrock to win this

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Speaker 3: fight inside the distance, I think we're getting a little

200
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Speaker 3: bit extra juice considering he's won so many fights by decision,

201
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Speaker 3: gone a decision so many times. So how did you

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Speaker 3: see this matchup playing out? And any alternative ways you'd

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Speaker 3: bet it besides Gamroux submission.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean my main bet is on Gamrot straight up.

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Speaker 1: I'm worried about it for the same reasons you mentioned,

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Speaker 1: And that's why he has so many split decisions, because

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of fights where he's dominated most most

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Speaker 1: of the minutes and then got dropped. And I'm also

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Speaker 1: a little bit nervous that one of those times he

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Speaker 1: gets dropped while I actually turn into a knockout. He's

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Speaker 1: never been finished in his career, which is crazy because

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Speaker 1: he seemingly goes down almost every fight, and Client can

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Speaker 1: hit pretty hard.

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Speaker 3: He a couple of things like he gets knocked down,

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Speaker 3: but then he's like right back up and then the

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Speaker 3: fight right. He's not like shaking off cob webs for

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Speaker 3: that long. It seems he recovers quick.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the trumbawamba effect. As our audio producer, well, I'm

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Speaker 1: sure splice into here as we talk about that, but yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean, but everyone does until they don't, which is

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Speaker 1: what scares me, is that, like everyone's got great recoverability

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Speaker 1: until that one time the button actually finally goes all

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Speaker 1: the way off, which I'm scared about. But I don't

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Speaker 1: think it's going to happen in this fight. It's a

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Speaker 1: big step down competition wise for Gamrock. There's a couple

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Speaker 1: of technical things that stood out. One this fight is

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Speaker 1: in the apex, which really helps the wrestler in the

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Speaker 1: small cage, and gam Rock I saw someone post it.

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Speaker 1: He's he's been very good in the apex. I think

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Speaker 1: like all of his losses were in larger cages, and

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Speaker 1: he's beat some guys in the apex. But the other thing,

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Speaker 1: he's also very good against south pause and we normally

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Speaker 1: think about how that impacts the striking the matchup, but

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Speaker 1: what Gamrack does when he's fighting lefties, he will switch

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Speaker 1: from his normal southpaw stands to a right handed stance

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Speaker 1: and then shoot in on the and shoot in on

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Speaker 1: the front leg of the lefty because it's so much

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Speaker 1: closer to him when we do that opposite stance match up,

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Speaker 1: and it allows him to get to those single legs

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Speaker 1: just super easy and kline you know, kind of longer,

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Speaker 1: stands up pretty tall. Those are going to be available

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Speaker 1: all day. And then also Gamrock catches kicks really well,

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Speaker 1: which either means Klein won't kick, which is how he

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Speaker 1: has both of his knockouts in the UFC, or he

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Speaker 1: will kick and probably get taken down. So all of

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Speaker 1: those technical things, like I was really trying to find

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Speaker 1: a way about Cline when I was breaking down this fight,

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Speaker 1: but all that technical stuff I saw, I just made

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Speaker 1: it a really tough matchup stylistically here and then also

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Speaker 1: like takedown props on Gamrot. I think he's gonna get

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Speaker 1: a million of him. I don't know exactly what the

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Speaker 1: lines right, it was like five and a half at drafting,

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Speaker 1: which I probably wouldn't take, but you know, there's some

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Speaker 1: opportunities there, and yeah, just the submission. He's like a

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Speaker 1: multiple time European ADCC champion, can clearly do it. Klein's

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Speaker 1: grappling is pretty untested, Like he has good grappling numbers,

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Speaker 1: but he hasn't really fought anyone who's like who we

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Speaker 1: think of as a grappling first fighter. So at plus

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Speaker 1: nine hundred plus nine to fifty depending on where you look,

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Speaker 1: making a little bit of a sprinkle there, But I

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Speaker 1: think Gamrot wins this one straight up, just because all

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Speaker 1: the technical reasons I pointed out.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, he has better gas tank. I don't think Klein is,

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Speaker 3: as you mentioned, really faced very many proactive grapplers. I

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Speaker 3: believe Nate land where ended up submitting him as Klient

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Speaker 3: got tired. Client is a pretty big favorite in that

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Speaker 3: fight as well, So yeah, Gambrot inside the distance for

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Speaker 3: me at plus six hundred may end up laying juice

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Speaker 3: on the money line as well. Billy made some really

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Speaker 3: good technical points there regarding the south past dance to

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Speaker 3: the takedowns. I just think Gamrot in general is a

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Speaker 3: very good fighter, but the big moments have nearly cost

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Speaker 3: him multiple time. He also had that split decision over

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Speaker 3: Serukian right in the five round fight that he probably

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Speaker 3: didn't deserve, as well as Sarukan.

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Speaker 1: That was somehow a unanimous decision that he didn't deserve,

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Speaker 1: But like he probably should have won the fights against.

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Speaker 1: You can make a case for all three of his

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Speaker 1: UFC losses like they should have won. Like, yeah, it

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Speaker 1: was a tough one when I was doing the luck rating,

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Speaker 1: so I ended up just like, yeah, I don't know,

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Speaker 1: Like he's got some wins he doesn't deserve, he's got

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Speaker 1: some losses he probably doesn't deserve. We'll call it even

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Speaker 1: was basically how I looked at it. But yeah, I

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Speaker 1: mean the Betty fight was a unanimous decision loss for

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Speaker 1: him that was probably the clearest lost, but also an

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Speaker 1: elite grappler. I thought he beat Dan Hooker in his

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Speaker 1: last fight and thus should be on a winning streak.

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Speaker 1: Kind of cancels out the Sarakian yes decision.

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Speaker 3: Let's talk about two more fighters who may have popped

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Speaker 3: up in your reluc ratings this week, Ryan Doos Santos

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Speaker 3: and Alice Ardoline Dos Santos has lost two splits. He's

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Speaker 3: zero and two in the UFC, but every media scorecard

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Speaker 3: had her winning both of those fights against Pujo Tomar

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Speaker 3: and Talita Allen Carr and then artiline O and two

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Speaker 3: lost two unanimous decisions. Of the fans, thirty percent of

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Speaker 3: fans had her beating Seanavan and sixty six percent had

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Speaker 3: her beating Melissa Martinez. Of those two fights, wouldn't you

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Speaker 3: have said that Ardilline won the or likelier to have

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Speaker 3: won the Bannon fight as opposed to the Martinez fight.

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Speaker 3: People gave her much more credit for the Martinez fight.

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Speaker 3: And then where do these two like rank, you know,

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Speaker 3: relative to one another in terms of luck ratings? Because

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Speaker 3: they've both been somewhat unlucky on the cards. I guess

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Speaker 3: Dos Santos has been a little bit more unlucky, losing

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Speaker 3: actual splits. So how do you view these two relative

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Speaker 3: to one another. I think we both clearly see value

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Speaker 3: on the underdog side with Ardilline, But why and where

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Speaker 3: do you view their luck rating history.

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Speaker 1: The art the Artily and Bannon fight was a split

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Speaker 1: decision that she lost, so she has one split and

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Speaker 1: one like they've both exclusively lost close decisions in the UFC.

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Speaker 1: This fight is like minus five hundred to go to

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Speaker 1: the judge. Is there something crazy? And one woman is

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Speaker 1: plus two hundred? Like, I'm not worried about who's been

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Speaker 1: more or less unlucky. They both they both probably should

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Speaker 1: be one in one based on like how they've actually performed.

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Speaker 1: I don't really care. It's a fight that like not

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Speaker 1: neither of them are very good, neither of them have

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Speaker 1: much finishing upside. They both exclusively get in close fights,

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Speaker 1: and you're getting better than two to one on one fighter.

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Speaker 1: Don't overthink it. I took Ardelli and Ardaly and I'm

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Speaker 1: not sure how to say it. I don't really care

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Speaker 1: that much. Early in the week in my luck rating,

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Speaker 1: she's still there at about the same price. Yeah, don't

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Speaker 1: think too hard.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I made her plus one seventy. Not only you know,

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Speaker 3: fight heavily favored to go to a decision, but also

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Speaker 3: the fighter with grappling upside I believe in a fight. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: I mean, I think of the to the fighter who

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Speaker 3: is likelier to get top time here for extended periods.

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Speaker 3: I think is artily and I think Des Santa's may

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Speaker 3: be likelier to finish if she gets on top. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: you know, underdog fight heavily favored to go to decision

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Speaker 3: minus three fifty or higher everywhere, really minus four hundred

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Speaker 3: on his four fifty or higher, so north of eighty

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Speaker 3: percent implied getting a woman in a fight where both

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Speaker 3: fighters consistently are going to close competitive splits. We're basically

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Speaker 3: just hoping to flip a coin here at plus two

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Speaker 3: twenty and help hopefully cash an underdog ticket with it.

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Speaker 3: Another underdog ticket you're interested in taking this weekend. Bilaji

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Speaker 3: Oki short notice fight against Michael aswell aswell lost a

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Speaker 3: split to Bogged and grad on Contender series in twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty four. I believe he's never been finished. He's taking

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Speaker 3: this one on short notice. Though in place of Markel

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Speaker 3: maderos Ok coming off of a loss against Chris Duncan

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Speaker 3: where he closes his minus two hundred favored or I

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Speaker 3: believe you bet Duncan in that fight. You might have

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Speaker 3: bet Duncan by submission as well. I'm not sure. But

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Speaker 3: as well, the one concern here is that he's a

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Speaker 3: featherweight coming up to lightweight. He's two inches shorter. There's

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Speaker 3: a four inch reach discrepancy here, and Oki should have

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Speaker 3: more power. So how do you see aswhole working his

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Speaker 3: way into this fight making things competitive? Does he need

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Speaker 3: to grapple in order to have success or do you

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Speaker 3: think his striking can stay competitive with Oki? You're taking

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Speaker 3: a big plus money number. Where would you bet this

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Speaker 3: down to as well?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, those are the weight class in particular, and possibly

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Speaker 1: the power is a significantcern. Keep in mind everything I

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Speaker 1: say is with the context of he's also about plus

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Speaker 1: three hundred, So, like, you know, cut me some slack

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Speaker 1: when I'm overlooking some of that. I think as well

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Speaker 1: needs to strike. When I broke him down in that

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Speaker 1: Connuender series, I said he was a really clean striker.

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Speaker 1: Bog Dan Grad also known for his striking as a

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Speaker 1: grad needs to wrestle to win this fight, and he

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Speaker 1: did and that was what probably got him the split decision.

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Speaker 1: It was super close, like it could have gone the

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Speaker 1: other way, I thought, pretty easily. And then this one

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Speaker 1: looks really good in hindsight. But as well as other

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Speaker 1: career loss is to Yadira del Val, who we just

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Speaker 1: saw a couple of weeks ago, look awesome, who is

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Speaker 1: a jiu jitsu black belt, you know, high level judo guy,

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Speaker 1: great grappler overall, and when I broke down the tape

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Speaker 1: on it as well as like, he's got super clean striking,

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Speaker 1: very very good technical striker. And you know, now both

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Speaker 1: of his career losses are against guys who wrestled him.

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Speaker 1: I don't think Oki is going to do that. He's

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Speaker 1: got some takedowns in his UFC or Contender Series fights,

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Speaker 1: but it's not like his go to, like he wants

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Speaker 1: to stand there and bang it out. And if they

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Speaker 1: do that, you know, we got one guy who's definitely

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Speaker 1: more powerful, especially when we factor in the weight class

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Speaker 1: and Oki. But the other guy I think is like

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Speaker 1: the cleaner and more technical fighter and as well, and

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Speaker 1: he's also I think twenty four now, so we've got

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Speaker 1: to project that he's going to be better than he

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Speaker 1: has been when we've seen him in the past, and

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Speaker 1: again all of that, plus he's plus three hundred. I

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Speaker 1: think probably like a striking based decision is the likeliest

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Speaker 1: path for as well. But he's got some pop, like

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Speaker 1: he could catch him. I mean half of his wins

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Speaker 1: or knockouts half a decision, so it's pretty clear how

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Speaker 1: that goes. Don't know if that power plays up going

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Speaker 1: up a weight class here, which is why I'm not

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Speaker 1: trying to, you know, pick my shot one way or

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Speaker 1: the other. But I think he lands a ton of

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Speaker 1: strikes one way or the other. So three to one odds.

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Speaker 1: I'm I wish he had a full training camp. I

401
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Speaker 1: wish he weren't giving up a weight class, but then we'd

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Speaker 1: get plus one twenty five or whatever. So we'll type

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Speaker 1: what we can get.

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Speaker 3: He was actually supposed to fight on a I want

405
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Speaker 3: to get the promotion right. He was supposed to fight

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Speaker 3: on a card in June, a Fury f C card

407
00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:15,040
Speaker 3: in June, so he was in training camp. May have

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Speaker 3: cut the camp short, but he did have a fight

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Speaker 3: book coming up three weeks from now, so assume he

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Speaker 3: was at least in the gym getting ready for that one.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, definitely short notice going up a weight class

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Speaker 3: both concerns, but at the number I think could be interesting,

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Speaker 3: especially maybe taking a decision prop as well to win

414
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Speaker 3: by decision. Fight to go to decision is a round

415
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Speaker 3: to pick them price. Considering the power advantage for OK,

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Speaker 3: that does lend itself to as well being competitive here

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Speaker 3: at a minimum, so I think fight does go all

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Speaker 3: fifteen minutes, maybe as well conceal a decision on the scorecards.

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Speaker 3: The fight that I do not expect to go all

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Speaker 3: fifteen minutes. Zachary Reese against douche Go Storvich. Reaes about

421
00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:53,399
Speaker 3: minus two to fifty, douche Go about plus two hundred.

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Speaker 3: Reese is the bigger man threeaches taller three in treatre manage,

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Speaker 3: but he has a very awkward style and a very

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Speaker 3: incomplete MMA game. He's a very dynamic, fast early finisher,

425
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Speaker 3: but he also likes to play on his back hunt

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Speaker 3: for submissions off of his back. He carries big power

427
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Speaker 3: bushco keeps his hands down. He is the karate style fighter,

428
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Speaker 3: really like that karate stands fights with its hands low.

429
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Speaker 3: He's very hittable. Is not have a great chin, but

430
00:20:18,520 --> 00:20:21,040
Speaker 3: in an extended fight, I do think he's the more

431
00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:24,000
Speaker 3: skilled MMA fighter. I think he is good striking, and

432
00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:27,240
Speaker 3: I think he has more offensive wrestling upside of these two.

433
00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:30,200
Speaker 3: I think Reese clearly has more finishing upside with the

434
00:20:30,280 --> 00:20:31,960
Speaker 3: jiu jitsu. But if somebody is going to hold top

435
00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:35,240
Speaker 3: position for extended stretches, I actually think it's going to

436
00:20:35,280 --> 00:20:38,480
Speaker 3: be Dudorbich, and in an extended striking fight, I like

437
00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:42,000
Speaker 3: his distance management and his volume at range as well.

438
00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:44,320
Speaker 3: Reese canna have more power, but I think Douchco can

439
00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:46,880
Speaker 3: actually win minutes and stay competitive here as long as

440
00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:49,600
Speaker 3: he doesn't die in the first couple of minutes. So

441
00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:52,719
Speaker 3: small pre fight bet on Douchco plus two hundred. Probably

442
00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:55,960
Speaker 3: looking for a live bet after round one, assuming he

443
00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:59,320
Speaker 3: doesn't get hurt, bad or die. Any thoughts on that fight?

444
00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:02,280
Speaker 3: Billieve to door against Zachary Reese. Reese a fund fighter,

445
00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:03,480
Speaker 3: but I do think he's flowed.

446
00:21:04,359 --> 00:21:07,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love the live angle. I'm very worried about Dusco.

447
00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:09,720
Speaker 1: Early four of his five UFC losses were in the

448
00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:12,040
Speaker 1: first round. Zacharyes is gonna come out and give you

449
00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:15,920
Speaker 1: a real hard first round not always so great after that.

450
00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:19,720
Speaker 1: It's a really weird fight though, because the guys Duschco

451
00:21:19,880 --> 00:21:23,080
Speaker 1: has beat in the UFC are combined like three and

452
00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:25,639
Speaker 1: fifteen in the promotion and all have been cut. But

453
00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:28,000
Speaker 1: the guys he lost to are actually all pretty good.

454
00:21:28,119 --> 00:21:31,080
Speaker 1: Like the worst opponent he's fought and lost too is

455
00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:36,280
Speaker 1: probably Cheety No Kwani or maybe Punasiano. But like, it's

456
00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:38,480
Speaker 1: just really hard to get a like actual level on him,

457
00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:40,760
Speaker 1: especially with I believe he changed weight classes in there.

458
00:21:40,840 --> 00:21:43,320
Speaker 1: Like just a lot going on with Dusco where he

459
00:21:43,359 --> 00:21:45,080
Speaker 1: makes it kind of hard to cap how he's going

460
00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:48,159
Speaker 1: to be against someone like Reese. But yeah, love the

461
00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:51,000
Speaker 1: live stuff on Dusco not making a pre fight bet

462
00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:56,520
Speaker 1: myself just because it's scary and yeah, but yeah, I'm

463
00:21:56,600 --> 00:22:00,439
Speaker 1: with you more or less. I think theoretically it just

464
00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:02,880
Speaker 1: you know, you could do it like a Zacharyice round

465
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:04,399
Speaker 1: one and then try to get duce goal live or

466
00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:05,879
Speaker 1: something like that too. Would be a fun way to

467
00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:06,159
Speaker 1: play it.

468
00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:08,520
Speaker 3: If I were a UFC matchmaker, I would just pair

469
00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:12,240
Speaker 3: up Jordan Wright and douce Coachadorovic every month every three months,

470
00:22:12,320 --> 00:22:14,320
Speaker 3: just like let one of them recover whoever gets knocked

471
00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:16,200
Speaker 3: out and we run it back again in three months.

472
00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:18,080
Speaker 3: I want to see those two fight in perpetuity, both

473
00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:23,040
Speaker 3: karate style strikers. Neither has durability to Dorovich already finished

474
00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:24,840
Speaker 3: Jordan Right. I think Right had his moments in that

475
00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:27,159
Speaker 3: fight though, in round one. So I'd just love to

476
00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:29,840
Speaker 3: see those two fight forever. They remind me a lot

477
00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:33,600
Speaker 3: of one another, just from different countries and with slightly

478
00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:36,160
Speaker 3: different skill sets. But yeah, I would love to see

479
00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:37,840
Speaker 3: those two run a back at some point, unless I

480
00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:40,119
Speaker 3: guess Right's probably already been cut in the promotion he.

481
00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:41,400
Speaker 1: Got a long time ago.

482
00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:47,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, So before we get to our top props, just

483
00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:50,560
Speaker 3: want to get Billy's take on Underdog this week, because

484
00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:53,080
Speaker 3: we can go yard all baseball season with underdogs, pick

485
00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:54,840
Speaker 3: them game. Underdog is one of the leading sports apps

486
00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:56,879
Speaker 3: you can pick and play now in your state. Millions

487
00:22:56,880 --> 00:22:59,480
Speaker 3: of fans have already won millions making picks on our

488
00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:01,480
Speaker 3: underdog couple. You'll be next to play. All I have

489
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:02,879
Speaker 3: to do is download the app and choose whether a

490
00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:04,800
Speaker 3: player will go higher or lower on one of their stats.

491
00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:07,280
Speaker 3: You can choose from things like home run strikeouts, total bases,

492
00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:10,159
Speaker 3: significant strikes, so much more. Once your picks feel good,

493
00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:11,919
Speaker 3: you can play with as little as one dollar. If

494
00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:14,000
Speaker 3: you get everything right, you can win up to one

495
00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:17,480
Speaker 3: thousand times your money. Since we're talking, you have see today, Billy.

496
00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:18,840
Speaker 3: What are your thoughts?

497
00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:21,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, you meant to say strikeouts there, but you said

498
00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:24,280
Speaker 1: significant strikes, which is a perfect transition for what I'm

499
00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:27,560
Speaker 1: talking about with my Underdog UFC picks. And it's a

500
00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:30,160
Speaker 1: fight we're both going to talk about shortly between Andreas

501
00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:34,359
Speaker 1: Gustusen and Trevin Giles. I'm tarrying Andreas Gustuson higher than

502
00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:37,400
Speaker 1: zero point five finishes, So basically, if he finishes the fight,

503
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:40,280
Speaker 1: we're getting a bonus multiplier on that at Underdog, which

504
00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:42,919
Speaker 1: makes this payout a little bit juicier. And then with that,

505
00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:46,320
Speaker 1: I'm playing Trevin Giles lower than twenty seven point five

506
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:50,320
Speaker 1: significant strikes. Giles lands about three significant strikes per minute,

507
00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:53,360
Speaker 1: and if he gets finished, he doesn't get very many

508
00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:56,360
Speaker 1: minutes to do that. I think Andreas Gustson's gonna wrestle him.

509
00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:58,480
Speaker 1: We're gonna talk more about that fight, but that is

510
00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:01,960
Speaker 1: the underdog slip, and as I pointed out, that's my

511
00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:04,359
Speaker 1: favorite thing about playing on Underdog is we can build

512
00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:07,720
Speaker 1: some of this correlation into our picks and get a

513
00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:11,320
Speaker 1: bonus payout because of the odds on the gustuson higher

514
00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:13,639
Speaker 1: than zero point five finishes. So if you want to

515
00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:16,560
Speaker 1: join me, tell this or any other UFC picks, download

516
00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:19,280
Speaker 1: the Underdog app or go to Underdog Fantasy dot com.

517
00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:23,200
Speaker 1: Sign up with Promo Code Action Network, unlock a special

518
00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:25,480
Speaker 1: author of up to one thousand dollars in bonus cash

519
00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:29,000
Speaker 1: when you make your first posit that's Promo Code Action Network.

520
00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:33,399
Speaker 1: Must be eighteen plus nineteen plus in Alabama, Nebraska, nineteen

521
00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:36,080
Speaker 1: plus in Colorado for some games, or twenty one plus

522
00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:39,560
Speaker 1: in Massachusetts and Arizona, and present in a state where

523
00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:44,040
Speaker 1: Underdog Fantasy operates. Terms apply void In Colorado. Concerned with

524
00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:47,080
Speaker 1: your play, call one eight hundred Gambler or visit NCP

525
00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:51,000
Speaker 1: Gambling dot Org. In Arizona, call one eight hundred next

526
00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:54,320
Speaker 1: Step or text next step to five three three four

527
00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:56,920
Speaker 1: to two. In New York, called the twenty four to

528
00:24:56,920 --> 00:25:00,200
Speaker 1: seven Hope line at one eight seven seven eight Hope

529
00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:02,720
Speaker 1: and why or text hope and why.

530
00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:04,800
Speaker 3: Well, let's keep it with the Trevin Giles and Andreas

531
00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:07,359
Speaker 3: Gustafson Fight you've got it as one of your top props.

532
00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:08,960
Speaker 3: I have it as one of my best bets. We'll

533
00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:12,960
Speaker 3: talk about it right now after the underdog segment. I

534
00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:15,520
Speaker 3: like Gustafson on the money line. I projected him closer

535
00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:18,440
Speaker 3: to minus one ninety, would bet him up to minus

536
00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 3: one eighty. Is an older prospect though, making his debut

537
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:23,840
Speaker 3: off a Contender series thirty four years old. He won.

538
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:26,920
Speaker 3: Is a minus two to fifty favorite over Pat Picklick

539
00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:30,639
Speaker 3: on Contender Series. Really good cage control, abuses people up

540
00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:32,639
Speaker 3: against the fence, and I do think the apex in

541
00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:35,560
Speaker 3: particular is perfect for this guy's style, and he's going

542
00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:38,280
Speaker 3: to be running it right back from Contender Series into

543
00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:41,640
Speaker 3: his ufcadub inside of the apex, and I think worth

544
00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:44,359
Speaker 3: noting as well, he is the more natural fighter at

545
00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:47,600
Speaker 3: this division. Giles used to fight a division lower ended

546
00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:50,320
Speaker 3: up coming up. I think Gustavson just has him covered

547
00:25:50,320 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 3: in terms of physicality and size and bullying him against

548
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:56,160
Speaker 3: the fence. Like him up as I said, to minus

549
00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:58,840
Speaker 3: one eighty. But I would also consider betting his inside

550
00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:01,280
Speaker 3: the distance prop and project that at plus one fourteen,

551
00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:04,080
Speaker 3: like that at plus one thirty, and that is one

552
00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:06,560
Speaker 3: of Billy's top props for this week. So Billy, continue

553
00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:08,199
Speaker 3: to give me your breakdown on this fight. What you

554
00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:11,480
Speaker 3: thought about Gustavson on Contender Series. What you think his

555
00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:15,399
Speaker 3: potential is in the UFC beyond just fighting Trevin Giles

556
00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:15,919
Speaker 3: in his debut.

557
00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:18,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was pretty high on him coming into the

558
00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:20,439
Speaker 1: Contender Series. I picked him to win that fight by

559
00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:23,200
Speaker 1: knockout at like plus one fifty or so, and he did.

560
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:28,320
Speaker 1: He's very aggressive. He just throws really hard, and if

561
00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:30,560
Speaker 1: he doesn't knock you out immediately, he goes to the clinch,

562
00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:33,400
Speaker 1: push you up against the fence, and then has awesome takedowns.

563
00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:35,960
Speaker 1: He started Greco Roman wrestling when he was six and

564
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 1: did that for like twenty plus years before transitioning to MMA.

565
00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:41,280
Speaker 1: For those who don't know, in Greco, you can't shoot

566
00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:44,160
Speaker 1: at someone's legs or touch their legs. It's all clinch takedowns.

567
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:47,600
Speaker 1: So like that in a small cage and when I

568
00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:49,359
Speaker 1: can lean you against the wall and do all my

569
00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:52,480
Speaker 1: Greco is just a pretty good combination. And then he's

570
00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:55,119
Speaker 1: very very aggressive once it gets to the ground, hunting

571
00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:59,720
Speaker 1: finishes both strikes and submissions, but mainly strikes and Trevin

572
00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:02,960
Speaker 1: guy took this fight on short notice. I think they're

573
00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:05,520
Speaker 1: both trying to be welter whites, but they moved this

574
00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:09,119
Speaker 1: to one hundred eighty pound catchway. But Gustafson is definitely

575
00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:12,080
Speaker 1: the bigger, stronger fighter, like looks bigger and tougher. And

576
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:14,800
Speaker 1: I'm really worried about Guyles's chin. He's been knocked out

577
00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:17,840
Speaker 1: three times, like basically once per year over the last

578
00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:21,360
Speaker 1: three years. Also got submission submitted by Gabriel Bond theme

579
00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:23,800
Speaker 1: just a lot of ways this doesn't go wrong for him,

580
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:25,359
Speaker 1: and then when you factor in that he's coming in

581
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:28,200
Speaker 1: on short notice, Cardio probably not what it should be.

582
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:31,560
Speaker 1: He gives a lot of late stop injequity to Gustafson.

583
00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:33,640
Speaker 1: I'm with you on the money line. I would play

584
00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:35,399
Speaker 1: that as well if I didn't like the inside. The

585
00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:38,159
Speaker 1: distance at plus one point thirty just slightly better. I

586
00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:41,560
Speaker 1: think those are both great picks. As far as his ceiling,

587
00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 1: I don't think it's super high because he is thirty four,

588
00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:46,200
Speaker 1: And I also think he's going to struggle against tall

589
00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:49,920
Speaker 1: fighters in a big cage. So when you get to those,

590
00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:52,280
Speaker 1: you know, more notable fights and they move you out

591
00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:55,000
Speaker 1: of the Apex that Greco's not going to work. It

592
00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:57,080
Speaker 1: reminds me a lot of Mark Madson, but bigger. If

593
00:27:57,080 --> 00:27:59,760
Speaker 1: you remember, Mark Madsen came in looked awesome when he

594
00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:01,520
Speaker 1: could to shelf people against the fence and use that

595
00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:03,960
Speaker 1: Greco Roman wrestling, but the first time he had to

596
00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:06,160
Speaker 1: fight at range and like couldn't chase the guy down.

597
00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:10,000
Speaker 1: That became a big problem for him. It was more

598
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:12,840
Speaker 1: of a problem for Madson because the smaller weight classes,

599
00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:15,800
Speaker 1: they're shorter, the cage is proportionately bigger to them. But

600
00:28:15,840 --> 00:28:17,600
Speaker 1: I think he's gonna run into the same kind of

601
00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:20,040
Speaker 1: ceiling where like he's gonna look awesome for a few fights,

602
00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:22,159
Speaker 1: just like ragged all in people against the fence, but

603
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:24,000
Speaker 1: then they're gonna give him some They're gonna give him

604
00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:26,040
Speaker 1: like Neil Magni or something who just stays twelve feet

605
00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:27,720
Speaker 1: away from him in a giant cage and it doesn't

606
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:28,520
Speaker 1: it doesn't work out.

607
00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:32,800
Speaker 3: Shout out to Marco Madson, Olympic silver medallist, former Better

608
00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:36,040
Speaker 3: Collective sponsored fighter. Our parent company used to sponsor Marco

609
00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 3: Madson when he was active in his career. So love

610
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:41,560
Speaker 3: Marco Madson around here. I don't believe he retired, right

611
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:46,000
Speaker 3: he hung him up. Yeah. Yeah, We're gonna get to

612
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 3: a couple other props before we get to our best

613
00:28:48,080 --> 00:28:52,520
Speaker 3: bets for today's slate. I'm gonna go with the Billy

614
00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:55,320
Speaker 3: Ray goffer me. He's brought him off. Fight to end

615
00:28:55,600 --> 00:28:57,440
Speaker 3: inside the distance for the under two and a half

616
00:28:57,480 --> 00:29:00,800
Speaker 3: more likely at minus one sixty five. Rejected this minus

617
00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 3: two twenty five to ten inside the distance. It's listed

618
00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:05,120
Speaker 3: of about minus two fifteen, so there is a slight

619
00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:07,240
Speaker 3: edge there, but I prefer the under two and a

620
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:11,840
Speaker 3: half because Bramei's finishing upside is generally early in round one.

621
00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:15,160
Speaker 3: He's a good dangerous submission grappler, but he tends to

622
00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:17,920
Speaker 3: run out of ideas after five minutes, doesn't have the

623
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:21,560
Speaker 3: best cardio, he's extremely hittable, and GoF is very aggressive

624
00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:23,920
Speaker 3: and good at rallying in fights. So I actually think

625
00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:26,520
Speaker 3: the best bets here maybe Golf to win in round

626
00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:30,680
Speaker 3: two at plus five hundred, round three at plus eight fifty.

627
00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:32,280
Speaker 3: But I do like the under two and a half

628
00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:36,000
Speaker 3: at minus one sixty Golf inside the distance at even money.

629
00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:38,840
Speaker 3: If Brahimai does not get the finished in round one,

630
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:42,160
Speaker 3: I think you could actually bet Goth live after round

631
00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:44,280
Speaker 3: one as well, you may get a better price than

632
00:29:44,280 --> 00:29:47,640
Speaker 3: his pre fight money line, Billy. Before we move on

633
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:49,640
Speaker 3: to another fight that we both have thoughts on that

634
00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:52,360
Speaker 3: kind of lends itself to the best bets section. Any

635
00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:54,600
Speaker 3: thoughts on Golf against Brahimi. I know you mentioned that

636
00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:57,840
Speaker 3: you were considering betting Brahimai, but any other thoughts or

637
00:29:57,840 --> 00:29:58,560
Speaker 3: bets on that fight.

638
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:02,120
Speaker 1: It was one of my luck ratings pick early in

639
00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:04,600
Speaker 1: the week at plus two seventy. I don't think the

640
00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:07,280
Speaker 1: money line has changed much there. I view this as

641
00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:09,600
Speaker 1: a pretty binary fight where brahim May is clearly the

642
00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:13,240
Speaker 1: better grappler and Golf is clearly the better striker. But

643
00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:15,440
Speaker 1: you know, as we keep pointing out, and the apex

644
00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:18,520
Speaker 1: makes grappling a little bit easier, and Brahimy had like

645
00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:20,960
Speaker 1: a two year layoff before he lost to Themba Grimbo,

646
00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:23,120
Speaker 1: and that's kind of one of those things like I

647
00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:25,200
Speaker 1: kind of always want to fade fighters on their first

648
00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:27,480
Speaker 1: fight back from a long break, and then looked awesome

649
00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 1: against Mickey gall On the fight after that, picked up

650
00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:32,280
Speaker 1: a knockout, which I didn't really think was something we're

651
00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:33,840
Speaker 1: going to see out of him. As his first win

652
00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:37,719
Speaker 1: in his career by anything other than submission. So if

653
00:30:37,760 --> 00:30:39,760
Speaker 1: you didn't tail me on that money line, bat now

654
00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:42,160
Speaker 1: I would probably just play Brahimi by submission and just

655
00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:44,720
Speaker 1: get the better price, because that is the more likely

656
00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:48,120
Speaker 1: way he does it. And it's also worth pointing out

657
00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:49,880
Speaker 1: this is a weird fight. They were both scheduled to

658
00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:52,960
Speaker 1: fight other opponents who couldn't get visas, so then they

659
00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:54,840
Speaker 1: just put him against each other, and then put those

660
00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:57,800
Speaker 1: other two opponents against each other, which I think is

661
00:30:57,840 --> 00:31:01,280
Speaker 1: more relevant or more helpful to Brahim my because now

662
00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:03,840
Speaker 1: golf is all of a sudden fighting a tricky grappling

663
00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:05,840
Speaker 1: submission specialist, where you might have done your camp a

664
00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:08,480
Speaker 1: little bit differently that way, where brough him, much like

665
00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 1: you know the Morobs or the Dakastani guys of the world,

666
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:12,360
Speaker 1: they're going to fight the same way no matter who

667
00:31:12,400 --> 00:31:14,520
Speaker 1: it's against. They're gonna try to get takedowns and submit you.

668
00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:17,920
Speaker 1: There's not really a lot of variants in opponent styles

669
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:20,440
Speaker 1: and as far as how they're going to train. So

670
00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:22,480
Speaker 1: I think that's a little bit of a edge to Broughhi,

671
00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:25,360
Speaker 1: may not a huge one, And yeah, I'm with you

672
00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:27,760
Speaker 1: on the fight ends early. You can even go brought

673
00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:29,880
Speaker 1: him by a round one, all the same kind of lodger.

674
00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:33,240
Speaker 3: It's good go to a light heavyweight fight. Before we

675
00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:36,320
Speaker 3: turn our attention to jeffel Filo against Allen Asameno, which

676
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:38,800
Speaker 3: you both have thoughts on. Justin Jacoby minus one eighty

677
00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:42,080
Speaker 3: five Bruno Lopez about plus one sixty. I leaned to

678
00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:45,200
Speaker 3: Jacoby to win by knockout at plus one eighty, projected

679
00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:47,440
Speaker 3: that closer to plus one seventy, and I would also

680
00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:49,960
Speaker 3: rather not lay the juice on his money line. I

681
00:31:49,960 --> 00:31:52,480
Speaker 3: think if he's hurting Lopez, he's likely to win the

682
00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:55,160
Speaker 3: fight by knockout. He's slowing down a little bit athletically

683
00:31:55,280 --> 00:31:57,920
Speaker 3: in his late thirties. I think Lopez, the younger man,

684
00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:02,040
Speaker 3: capable of showing more improvements, being the faster guide, is

685
00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:05,000
Speaker 3: the better athlete inside the cage. But in an extended

686
00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:07,760
Speaker 3: fight in in a smaller cage, I think Jacoby counters

687
00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:10,760
Speaker 3: and catches brutal Lopez at some point and finishes him

688
00:32:10,760 --> 00:32:13,680
Speaker 3: inside the distance. Don't want to make a significant bet

689
00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:15,680
Speaker 3: on it, but I'd rather bet be plus one eighty

690
00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:19,320
Speaker 3: on Jacoby Ko than lay minus one eighty five on

691
00:32:19,440 --> 00:32:23,000
Speaker 3: Jacoby's money line. Billy. Any thoughts In Jacoby against Bruno

692
00:32:23,040 --> 00:32:23,920
Speaker 3: Lopez for Saturday.

693
00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:27,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, my gut is telling me that the

694
00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:29,240
Speaker 1: wheel's got to fall off for some point at Dustin

695
00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:31,120
Speaker 1: Jacoby because he's also got like a lot of boxing

696
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:34,200
Speaker 1: and kickboxing experience, like he's had thirty MMA fights, like

697
00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:37,840
Speaker 1: after a whole kickboxing career. And I say that, and

698
00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:39,360
Speaker 1: I say, that's what my gut tells me. And then

699
00:32:39,360 --> 00:32:41,760
Speaker 1: he comes out and looks great, you know, and knocks

700
00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:46,680
Speaker 1: out Vita Petrino, another like Brazilian somewhat hyper prospect, and

701
00:32:46,720 --> 00:32:47,800
Speaker 1: now gets another one.

702
00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:48,479
Speaker 3: I don't know.

703
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:50,280
Speaker 1: I don't have strong feelings about it. If I had

704
00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:52,440
Speaker 1: to bet, it'd probably be Bruno Lopez money line, But

705
00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:55,720
Speaker 1: I don't know. Look, when is Dustin Jacoby gonna look old?

706
00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:57,600
Speaker 1: Because he hasn't yet. It just seems like it should

707
00:32:57,640 --> 00:32:59,760
Speaker 1: happen soon, if not now.

708
00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:02,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, his second stint in the UFC, he had an

709
00:33:02,520 --> 00:33:04,920
Speaker 3: MMA career, went to Pride for a while, and then

710
00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:07,600
Speaker 3: came back to MMA, and it's a much improved fighter

711
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:14,160
Speaker 3: in his second stint with the promotion. But what's that glory?

712
00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:15,640
Speaker 1: Not Pride is not that all glory?

713
00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:20,440
Speaker 3: I'm sorry? Yeah, Yeah, Pride. Pride would be quite the

714
00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:22,960
Speaker 3: transition to make, and then to come back to the

715
00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:25,800
Speaker 3: UFC that you're talking about a guy who'd be fifty

716
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:28,840
Speaker 3: five at this point now thirty seven. Yeah, my apologe

717
00:33:28,880 --> 00:33:30,920
Speaker 3: is there. Thank you for the correction. One of the

718
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:33,440
Speaker 3: more highly debated fights on the card this week, jeffel

719
00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:37,720
Speaker 3: Filo against Alan now Simento, two very good grapplers. Neither

720
00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:40,520
Speaker 3: has ever well now Sonmento has never been finished. Phil

721
00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:43,680
Speaker 3: has only been submitted twice in his MMA career. Now

722
00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:46,440
Speaker 3: Semento never finished. But now Semento coming off of a

723
00:33:46,480 --> 00:33:48,960
Speaker 3: two year layoff. Here you just mentioned wanting to fake

724
00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:51,800
Speaker 3: guys coming back off of the layoff. We don't really

725
00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:55,480
Speaker 3: have any reason in particular why that layoff happened. He

726
00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:57,080
Speaker 3: pulled out of a bunch of fights, but he also

727
00:33:57,080 --> 00:33:59,320
Speaker 3: had opponents pull out of fights as well. So do

728
00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 3: you do you happen to new So why not Sementa

729
00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:03,680
Speaker 3: was pulling out of those fights or was on such

730
00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:06,600
Speaker 3: a significant layoff. You're betting Fela on the money line.

731
00:34:06,680 --> 00:34:09,359
Speaker 3: I like the GTD here projected that at minus one

732
00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:12,360
Speaker 3: seventy five, would bet it at about minus one fifty

733
00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:14,600
Speaker 3: or better. But if there's a reason you have why

734
00:34:14,640 --> 00:34:17,920
Speaker 3: not Cementa was pulling out, injury related or otherwise, it

735
00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:20,080
Speaker 3: may change my opinion on the gtds. So why are

736
00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:22,480
Speaker 3: you betting Phila here aside from the layoff? And then

737
00:34:22,520 --> 00:34:24,200
Speaker 3: how do you view this fight playing out?

738
00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:26,680
Speaker 1: Yeah? I don't know a ton about the specifics. The

739
00:34:26,680 --> 00:34:30,680
Speaker 1: only fight that is listed as like not Semento's opponent

740
00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:34,160
Speaker 1: pulling out was this spring March first this year, so

741
00:34:34,200 --> 00:34:35,919
Speaker 1: it still would have been more than two years without

742
00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:38,000
Speaker 1: a fight just based on the ones that he pulled

743
00:34:38,000 --> 00:34:40,279
Speaker 1: out of. One was listed as an illness, a few

744
00:34:40,400 --> 00:34:43,600
Speaker 1: just like he withdrew, which probably means there's an injury

745
00:34:43,600 --> 00:34:46,120
Speaker 1: in there some time off. Whatever. I do not know

746
00:34:46,160 --> 00:34:48,960
Speaker 1: the details. More of my bet is because I just

747
00:34:49,000 --> 00:34:52,080
Speaker 1: think jeffelle Filo is really, really good. Yes, he got

748
00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:54,920
Speaker 1: submitted by Mohammed Makaiyev, but he had Makaiyav dead to

749
00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:57,440
Speaker 1: rights in a knee bar in the third round of

750
00:34:57,480 --> 00:34:59,920
Speaker 1: a fight he took on like less than a week's notice.

751
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:04,239
Speaker 1: Mohamed McKay is undefeated and like might actually be the

752
00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:06,560
Speaker 1: best flyweight in the world, but Dana White hates him,

753
00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:08,080
Speaker 1: so we don't get to find out if that's true

754
00:35:08,120 --> 00:35:11,640
Speaker 1: or not. And Jafel Filo like really should have won

755
00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:13,319
Speaker 1: that fight, Like I don't know how McKay have just

756
00:35:13,360 --> 00:35:16,600
Speaker 1: powered through that knee bar, and then Filo was understandably

757
00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:19,439
Speaker 1: guessed after that, it was deep into the third round,

758
00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:21,359
Speaker 1: he sold out for a submission, didn't get it, and

759
00:35:21,400 --> 00:35:23,319
Speaker 1: he took the fight on a few days notice. So

760
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:25,200
Speaker 1: that was a huge stock up for him. And then

761
00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:28,520
Speaker 1: two straight first round submissions after that, and then he

762
00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:30,760
Speaker 1: went and did a grappling match against Amir al Bosi

763
00:35:30,760 --> 00:35:33,320
Speaker 1: and beat him in a straight grappling match in December.

764
00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:38,359
Speaker 1: So Nacimento's better ability is his grappling. I just think

765
00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:41,279
Speaker 1: Felio is better at the thing that Nacimento is good at,

766
00:35:41,320 --> 00:35:43,400
Speaker 1: if that makes sense, and we're getting him at plus

767
00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:45,800
Speaker 1: money and then you factor in the two year layoff.

768
00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:48,720
Speaker 1: I am on Felio straight up. I don't think any

769
00:35:48,760 --> 00:35:53,440
Speaker 1: flyweight like less than maybe Pantosia, beats him in a

770
00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:57,600
Speaker 1: grappling focused match at this point. Right now, there's some

771
00:35:57,640 --> 00:35:59,400
Speaker 1: other guys you know, coming a way up, like the

772
00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:02,880
Speaker 1: all the Japanese grapplers possibly could beat them in a

773
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:05,200
Speaker 1: grappling match. Right now too, but I didn't really like

774
00:36:05,239 --> 00:36:08,080
Speaker 1: how Filio is adapted that for MMA a little bit younger,

775
00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:11,040
Speaker 1: definitely been healthier and more active, which is also a

776
00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:13,360
Speaker 1: big factor. And they're both two and one in the UFC,

777
00:36:13,520 --> 00:36:16,960
Speaker 1: So like, how do you justify Nacimento favored when they

778
00:36:16,960 --> 00:36:20,560
Speaker 1: have more or less the same resume but one guy's

779
00:36:20,560 --> 00:36:21,319
Speaker 1: been out for two years.

780
00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:24,279
Speaker 3: Let's move on to our best bets on this card.

781
00:36:24,280 --> 00:36:26,640
Speaker 3: I already gave out one, which was Gus. Listen, you

782
00:36:26,719 --> 00:36:29,719
Speaker 3: give out Philo, which is your best bet on this card?

783
00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:31,719
Speaker 3: Curious if you have any other fights your target. If

784
00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:35,400
Speaker 3: you have any thoughts on Kaitlyn Bira against Macy Shassan,

785
00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:38,640
Speaker 3: Shassan opened, I believe is an underdog, are definitely closer

786
00:36:38,640 --> 00:36:40,560
Speaker 3: to a pickup price. He's now out to a minus

787
00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:44,600
Speaker 3: one twenty favorite, three inches taller, has the forwards reach advantage,

788
00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:47,520
Speaker 3: is the more efficient striker plus zero point two to

789
00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:51,960
Speaker 3: minus zero point seven differential at distance per minute throughout

790
00:36:51,960 --> 00:36:55,080
Speaker 3: their respective careers. When I'm citing strike differential stats, that

791
00:36:55,160 --> 00:36:58,520
Speaker 3: is not including ground strikes, that is purely distance striking stats.

792
00:36:58,560 --> 00:37:03,120
Speaker 3: I've had those filtered out. Now VERA is considered the

793
00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:06,279
Speaker 3: better grappler of the pair, but looking at control rate

794
00:37:06,360 --> 00:37:10,160
Speaker 3: of rappling time, She's only controlled fifty nine percent of

795
00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:14,000
Speaker 3: her control time in the UFC, Shassan seventy percent. So

796
00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:16,360
Speaker 3: I actually think Chasson is going to be more competitive

797
00:37:16,360 --> 00:37:19,480
Speaker 3: here in the grappling than people are expecting, potentially even

798
00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:22,880
Speaker 3: land takedowns of her own. She's been getting and blending

799
00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:26,440
Speaker 3: proactive takedowns in her recent fights. She was dominating the

800
00:37:26,440 --> 00:37:30,040
Speaker 3: Irene Aldanna fight until getting a very weird liver kick

801
00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:32,200
Speaker 3: from bottom against her that knocked her out. I was

802
00:37:32,239 --> 00:37:34,200
Speaker 3: on Aldana in that fight. That was one of the

803
00:37:34,280 --> 00:37:37,440
Speaker 3: luckiest tickets I will ever cash. She was completely losing

804
00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:40,480
Speaker 3: that fight. Just happened to throw an up kick from bottom,

805
00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:43,000
Speaker 3: and it happened to hit Shassan right on the liver

806
00:37:43,400 --> 00:37:45,760
Speaker 3: and knock her out. I've never seen somebody get finished

807
00:37:45,800 --> 00:37:48,200
Speaker 3: with a liver kick from bottom. I've seen head kicks

808
00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:51,080
Speaker 3: from bottom, but never a liver kick kick to the body.

809
00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:56,960
Speaker 3: Just absolutely stunning, you know. And even like her most

810
00:37:57,000 --> 00:38:02,640
Speaker 3: recent loss, the lost getting submitted by her Pennington, future champion,

811
00:38:02,760 --> 00:38:04,919
Speaker 3: I believe there was another future champion that she lost

812
00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:07,840
Speaker 3: to as well. Overall, I think Shason still is sending,

813
00:38:08,200 --> 00:38:11,040
Speaker 3: still improving as a fighter. I think Viera sort of plateaued.

814
00:38:11,360 --> 00:38:13,120
Speaker 3: I think she has ways to win the fight, but

815
00:38:13,160 --> 00:38:16,080
Speaker 3: I do think Shason is improving in those areas where

816
00:38:16,120 --> 00:38:18,840
Speaker 3: many would expect Vieira to have the advantage. So I

817
00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:22,040
Speaker 3: projected her around minus one forty five. Would bet Macy

818
00:38:22,120 --> 00:38:24,839
Speaker 3: Chasson up to minus one thirty. Do you have any

819
00:38:24,840 --> 00:38:27,480
Speaker 3: thoughts on that fight, Billy, and then any other thoughts

820
00:38:27,520 --> 00:38:30,760
Speaker 3: on any of the other fights on Saturday's eleven fight cards?

821
00:38:32,040 --> 00:38:34,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you're right about that one cracktion. I'm

822
00:38:34,360 --> 00:38:38,920
Speaker 1: gonna make you describe Rocky Pennington as a future champion

823
00:38:39,000 --> 00:38:41,720
Speaker 1: or future and former champion. She is still the champion

824
00:38:41,760 --> 00:38:44,160
Speaker 1: as far as I'm concerned, she'd beat Juliana Pena. I

825
00:38:44,200 --> 00:38:47,480
Speaker 1: will hear nothing of anything different. But yeah, I think

826
00:38:47,480 --> 00:38:49,879
Speaker 1: you're right. I just don't I don't want to bet

827
00:38:49,880 --> 00:38:51,600
Speaker 1: it now, Like if you missed the plus money, it's

828
00:38:51,640 --> 00:38:54,960
Speaker 1: hard to justify. That's not how it works, right, Like

829
00:38:55,000 --> 00:38:57,160
Speaker 1: a minus one twenty ticket is a minus one twenty ticket,

830
00:38:57,239 --> 00:38:59,120
Speaker 1: no matter what the price used to be. But it's

831
00:38:59,120 --> 00:39:01,200
Speaker 1: just hard for me to get over that. Mentally, I

832
00:39:01,239 --> 00:39:04,080
Speaker 1: am more or less with you thematically, but not betting

833
00:39:04,120 --> 00:39:07,719
Speaker 1: it myself. And I think we covered almost every fight

834
00:39:07,800 --> 00:39:10,919
Speaker 1: despite this being a fairly low level one. So yeah,

835
00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:14,480
Speaker 1: any thoughts against Hallibah. I know a lot of people

836
00:39:14,520 --> 00:39:17,279
Speaker 1: have Hallibas this week? Any underdog interest there? I know

837
00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:20,839
Speaker 1: you don't generally like Ullibas, so yeah, I mean in theory,

838
00:39:20,840 --> 00:39:23,000
Speaker 1: I should probably like all about is probably the right

839
00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:25,960
Speaker 1: side here, but I both love Jordan Lovitt and we'll

840
00:39:26,000 --> 00:39:28,479
Speaker 1: never bet on Corred Holli, So here we are.

841
00:39:29,000 --> 00:39:31,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, and that'll cover all eleven fights on this Saturday's card,

842
00:39:31,680 --> 00:39:33,239
Speaker 3: So that'll do it for a UFC betting preview. You

843
00:39:33,280 --> 00:39:35,839
Speaker 3: can find more UFC betting content from both Billy and

844
00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:38,759
Speaker 3: myself on actionework dot com, and if you'd like to

845
00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:40,400
Speaker 3: instantly tell some of the best that we discussed on

846
00:39:40,400 --> 00:39:42,839
Speaker 3: today's show, look quick quick sickle b links both any

847
00:39:42,880 --> 00:39:46,479
Speaker 3: podcast description or the video description on YouTube and visit

848
00:39:46,560 --> 00:39:50,440
Speaker 3: actionework dot com slash bet now to find those clicks blinks.

849
00:39:50,680 --> 00:39:53,080
Speaker 3: Don't forget to download the free award winning actionworkapp and

850
00:39:53,160 --> 00:39:55,680
Speaker 3: sign up for action Pro for immediate access to expert

851
00:39:55,680 --> 00:39:58,400
Speaker 3: pix analysis. Best of luck with all your best this weekend.

852
00:39:58,800 --> 00:40:01,120
Speaker 3: Enjoyed the violence. Thanks listening, See you next time.

853
00:40:10,239 --> 00:40:14,759
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

854
00:40:14,800 --> 00:40:17,560
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

855
00:40:17,600 --> 00:40:20,719
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler