Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're enjoying our last weekend
Speaker 1: before training camp begins. I'm Greg Rosenthal. I'm in Massachusetts,
Speaker 1: visiting the parents while I can before it gets too crazy,
Speaker 1: and talking to another Massachusetts resident.
Speaker 2: Yes, you know you love him, Aaron Shotts.
Speaker 1: He just wrote Aaron Shotts's FTN Almanac, also known formerly
Speaker 1: as the Football Outsiders Almanac way back in the day
Speaker 1: football perspectives. I was ready then for my money, the
Speaker 1: best season preview out there. We had him on last
Speaker 1: year to give us some surprising team projections, and we
Speaker 1: have them back.
Speaker 2: How are you doing, Aaron.
Speaker 3: I'm good man. I move got it out a few
Speaker 3: days earlier this year, and now I'm ready to talk
Speaker 3: to everybody about it. I'm ready for training camps. I'm
Speaker 3: ready for our long summer without the NFL to be over. Yeah,
Speaker 3: and I'm very excited.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I felt bad for all our UK listeners watching that
Speaker 1: game against Argentina, but all that means is you got
Speaker 1: to just turn your attention to the other football.
Speaker 3: And yes, I've enjoyed I have enjoyed the other football
Speaker 3: for the last few weeks, definitely, But I am an
Speaker 3: NFL guy through and through.
Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm gonna frame this just as a conversation
Speaker 1: about a few teams in terms of their projections that
Speaker 1: caught my eye. Of course, Aaron is the author, the
Speaker 1: creator of DVOA, which is to me like the best
Speaker 1: overall metric, and that's part of the projections that go
Speaker 1: into each and every season. And just we're going to
Speaker 1: start with the teams that stood out to me, and
Speaker 1: let's start with the Houston Texans. I am a huge
Speaker 1: fan of the Houston Texans. I have been considering all
Speaker 1: off season picking them to make and or win the
Speaker 1: Super Bowl, and then.
Speaker 2: I see, you got my back.
Speaker 1: I don't know how if that makes me want to
Speaker 1: take a more or not, because now it won't be
Speaker 1: as like original. You have the Texans as the AFC favorites.
Speaker 1: Your numbers say they have about twice the amount of
Speaker 1: odds to win the Super Bowl as any other AFC team.
Speaker 1: It's a pretty clear top three teams in the NFL
Speaker 1: for you too, in terms of DVOA, it's the Seahawks, Rams,
Speaker 1: and the Texans. What are your numbers and your model
Speaker 1: telling you about this Texans team.
Speaker 3: Yeah, first of all, let me say, even if we're
Speaker 3: a little bit wrong about the Texans. There's enough of
Speaker 3: a gap between them and the rest of the AFC
Speaker 3: that they still look like the best team in the AFC. So,
Speaker 3: first of all, their defense is really good. We know
Speaker 3: that we talk every year about defense being harder to
Speaker 3: predict than offense, but there's still plenty of indicators of
Speaker 3: their defense still being really good. If you were going
Speaker 3: to pick a defense to not regress, it would be
Speaker 3: a defense full of young stars where it's based more
Speaker 3: on the talent than the skip. Like that is what
Speaker 3: you would pick. So obviously, look, there's a chance everyone
Speaker 3: gets injured. That's true of every team. As far as
Speaker 3: their offense goes, here is the s. In the regular
Speaker 3: season last year, c J. Stroud ranked eleventh in passing
Speaker 3: Dvoa eleventh. He was horrible in the playoffs, like there's
Speaker 3: no question about it, Like you can't mince any words
Speaker 3: about that. He also didn't have Nico Collins and Schultz
Speaker 3: for one of those games. If the offensive line is improved,
Speaker 3: they should have an actual running game this year with Montgomery,
Speaker 3: and therefore we think that their offense is above average.
Speaker 3: Now the projections came out with it in the top ten.
Speaker 3: If they don't make the top ten in offense, but
Speaker 3: they're still like fourteenth or fifteenth, that's still the best
Speaker 3: team in the AFC with that defense. Yeah.
Speaker 1: And to be clear, look when I say they have
Speaker 1: double the odds to make or win the Super Bowl
Speaker 1: as any other team in the AFC, it is still
Speaker 1: a very top heavy but deep AFC where you have,
Speaker 1: you know, five six teams with legitimate chances to make it,
Speaker 1: but you do have the Texans decently ahead of the pack.
Speaker 1: I do wonder on the offense because I love seeing
Speaker 1: that projection. I like the idea, you know, from a
Speaker 1: non numbers point of view, that you have continuity at
Speaker 1: the offensive coordinator. Can can they be better on that side?
Speaker 1: Kind of getting used to that offense. The changes on
Speaker 1: the offensive line though, have been so dramatic for a
Speaker 1: second straight season. Some of it when you when you
Speaker 1: it all makes sense to me on paper, But I
Speaker 1: do wonder kind of how the offensive line specifically and
Speaker 1: all those changes. It's veterans, it's rookies, it's a it's
Speaker 1: a little bit of a mix, you know, is thrown
Speaker 1: out to being into a top ten offense.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's because of everything else. It's because
Speaker 3: of c J. Stroud, I think is good, and I
Speaker 3: think Nico Collins is very good, and Tank Dell should
Speaker 3: be back, and Montgomery improves them in the running game,
Speaker 3: I will fully admit, and this will this will come
Speaker 3: up with some of the other projections. The thing that
Speaker 3: my projection system has the hardest time with is changes
Speaker 3: in the offense line from y That is the hardest
Speaker 3: thing for me to turn into a number and put
Speaker 3: into a projection system. But they made improvements and they
Speaker 3: don't need to have a great offensive line. They need
Speaker 3: to not have one of the five worst offensive lines
Speaker 3: in the.
Speaker 1: League, right and I think there is a route to
Speaker 1: doing that. And the running game is so important.
Speaker 3: And c J.
Speaker 1: Stroud, you know you're speaking my language. I totally saw
Speaker 1: that from him. Last year was an up and down season,
Speaker 1: including the playoffs, were totally down. But I think it
Speaker 1: can be a lot better this year. So there first,
Speaker 1: it's not too surprising. The Bills are next, and I
Speaker 1: should have mentioned at the top of the show, we're
Speaker 1: doing a two part show kind of talking to some
Speaker 1: of the writers from the FDN Almanac.
Speaker 2: Dan Pezuda is going to come up later in the
Speaker 2: show and give.
Speaker 1: Us one number that helps explain the teams that he
Speaker 1: wrote about, and that includes the AFC East, which includes
Speaker 1: the number two favorite in the AFC right now, the Bills.
Speaker 1: But what I thought was interesting is noticing next up
Speaker 1: the Bengals and the raven and I'm going to kind
Speaker 1: of pair them together. Your projection model has the Bengals
Speaker 1: as the third best chance to make the playoffs a
Speaker 1: strong bounce back season nine point eight wins, which for
Speaker 1: your model is pretty high, Like I said, third in
Speaker 1: the league. And then the Ravens, who have the same
Speaker 1: win total projected. But I found it interesting you had
Speaker 1: them sixteenth overall in offense, sixteenth in defense, and sixteenth
Speaker 1: and special teams. They could not be a more average
Speaker 1: team in terms of your projections and even your win total,
Speaker 1: Like wasn't crazy.
Speaker 2: And yet you know, maybe it's the schedule. Is it
Speaker 2: as simple as.
Speaker 1: That that they have that high of a win total,
Speaker 1: the Bengals and Ravens kind of matching up there.
Speaker 3: Yeah, everyone in the AFC North has an easy schedule.
Speaker 3: I believe they played the South divisions, especially the NFC South,
Speaker 3: which still looks like the weakest division in the game,
Speaker 3: So that's a big part for Cincinnati and Baltimore. I
Speaker 3: feel like Baltimore should be higher. Are numbers right? For
Speaker 3: people who know DVOA, The twenty three and twenty four
Speaker 3: Ravens were two of the best teams we've ever measured.
Speaker 3: It feels like the rebound from last year's disappointment should
Speaker 3: be more than this, But it didn't come out with
Speaker 3: as much of a rebound as I thought it was
Speaker 3: gonna come out with, especially on offense. And I definitely
Speaker 3: buy the argument that no offense with a healthy Lamar
Speaker 3: Jackson can be sixteenth. I also would say you can't
Speaker 3: go into the season expecting you're going to get seventeen
Speaker 3: games of a healthy Lamar Jackson. But with the schedule
Speaker 3: being easier for those teams and the Steelers, I think
Speaker 3: not being as good another year older for Aaron Rodgers,
Speaker 3: new coaching staff, etc. I mean, if we thought Mike
Speaker 3: Tomlin had coaching magic, the fact that he's not there
Speaker 3: anymore means there is not coaching magic. And Cleveland is
Speaker 3: the worst team in the league. So I think that
Speaker 3: the Ravens and Cincinnati are both really good playoff playoff opportunities.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I do too.
Speaker 1: I was surprised a little bit, like how easy the
Speaker 1: schedule is that you have the Bengals as the easiest
Speaker 1: schedule in the league, and like I said, the Ravens
Speaker 1: fourth or fifth, And look, your model had the Patriots
Speaker 1: as the easiest scheduling the league going into last year.
Speaker 2: It played out that way.
Speaker 1: The Bills, because they had the same out of division
Speaker 1: schedule for the most part, had the second easiest schedule
Speaker 1: in the league, and it really helped both of those teams.
Speaker 2: These things matter.
Speaker 1: What are you seeing though, in terms of the Bengals,
Speaker 1: who haven't gotten a healthy Joe Burrow where the defense
Speaker 1: was better late last season, But at best, it's average
Speaker 1: talent and average coaching, and I think they would take average,
Speaker 1: but my instinct at this point would be they have
Speaker 1: below average coaching and then the talent with some of
Speaker 1: the imports that they made, might be around average. What
Speaker 1: are you seeing overall with how the Bengals could get
Speaker 1: there to the top of the AFC North.
Speaker 3: It's offense. I mean, we have them projected with the
Speaker 3: top five offense. When you look at how first of all,
Speaker 3: how well they played with Flacco, which was pretty good,
Speaker 3: and then when you look at Burrow hopefully playing for
Speaker 3: the whole season, and the receivers that they have and
Speaker 3: Chase Brown and everything. It looks like a top five offense.
Speaker 3: The defense projects to be a little bit better than
Speaker 3: last year. One of the things I will say is
Speaker 3: that it goes against common sense, but teams that improve
Speaker 3: significantly in the second half of the year, that does
Speaker 3: not necessarily roll over to the next year. There is
Speaker 3: no correlation between how much better you are in the
Speaker 3: second half of the season than the first half of
Speaker 3: the season and how much better you are the following year.
Speaker 3: I know that sounds crazy. I don't think it's explain
Speaker 3: it like we can always this. This guy got better,
Speaker 3: these young players got better, these players learned the scheme,
Speaker 3: and now they're in the second year of the scheme.
Speaker 3: There's usually a good way to explain it. But the
Speaker 3: Bengals defense improving so significantly in the second half last
Speaker 3: year is not necessarily going to carry over to this year.
Speaker 3: But we think their offense is really good.
Speaker 2: It makes sense to me.
Speaker 1: It always annoys me whenever we talk about players who
Speaker 1: end the season poorly and they take that end of
Speaker 1: the season is more important than October or November is like,
Speaker 1: all those games count totally equally. If you're able to
Speaker 1: excel at that high level at the professional level, it
Speaker 1: means you have it in you. You just want to
Speaker 1: see the consistency. It doesn't count anymore just because it's
Speaker 1: at the end, except for when it does and the
Speaker 1: playoffs start. But you know you can't control that. The
Speaker 1: Colts are next on my list of just surprising projections
Speaker 1: when I went through them. You have them as a
Speaker 1: better than fifty percent chance to make the playoffs.
Speaker 2: You have them.
Speaker 1: I wouldn't say it's far ahead of the Jaguars, but
Speaker 1: we're going to get to the Jaguars.
Speaker 2: You have as a mediocre team, but.
Speaker 1: It's it's enough ahead of the Jaguars that I consider
Speaker 1: it significant. And like I said, in your models, the
Speaker 1: Colts are making the playoffs more often than not. I'm
Speaker 1: fascinated by this team because the Jets have that pick,
Speaker 1: and I just think that there is a scenario where
Speaker 1: the Jets end up having two top five picks, or
Speaker 1: they're able to control the draft and this Colt season
Speaker 1: really goes poor. I see them as a high variance team.
Speaker 1: Maybe you guys do too, but ultimately it came out
Speaker 1: on average to pretty good. What about the Colts? Has
Speaker 1: your system relatively bullish?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I'll admit that subjectively, if you asked
Speaker 3: me my opinion rather than the numbers, I would put
Speaker 3: the Jaguars ahead of them. They were fifth in DVOA
Speaker 3: last year, even with the decline at the end of
Speaker 3: the season playing Rivers and Riley Leonard at quarterback fifth
Speaker 3: they were fifth last year. So to have him go
Speaker 3: from fifth to fourteenth, which is where they're projected, is
Speaker 3: a big drop, and we just don't have them dropping anymore. Now.
Speaker 3: It's possible that I'm sort of over projecting Jones as
Speaker 3: the quarterback because he's not going to be able to
Speaker 3: be as good as he was in the first half
Speaker 3: of last year with his achilles hurt, because the mobility
Speaker 3: is so important for his game, and we also don't
Speaker 3: know whether he'll be back week one. I believe that
Speaker 3: in the simulation that I did, I gave him a
Speaker 3: small chance of being out at the beginning of the year.
Speaker 3: I did the same thing for Patrick Mahomes. But overall,
Speaker 3: this team was really good last year. They really were,
Speaker 3: and like, you don't think that he can do that again.
Speaker 3: But I'm not projecting him to do it again, and
Speaker 3: I'm just projecting him to be better than he was
Speaker 3: in the past.
Speaker 1: Right, And I hate to say it, Aaron, but I
Speaker 1: value your your your model, your system more than your
Speaker 1: own opinions. How does that make you feel, though, that
Speaker 1: like your your like your machine has overtaken like in
Speaker 1: terms of value compared to your brain.
Speaker 3: I mean there are times. Listen, last year, we're gonna
Speaker 3: we'll talk by the end here about a team where
Speaker 3: the vibes are bad. Last year the Dolphins. The Dolphins,
Speaker 3: my numbers said were the second best team in the
Speaker 3: AFC East, And I said, the problem is, I understand
Speaker 3: what the numbers say, but the vibes are so bad
Speaker 3: there right now that I feel like there's no way
Speaker 3: they're going to do this. And on one hand, they
Speaker 3: were worse than the projection. On the other hand, of
Speaker 3: the second half of the year they were not.
Speaker 1: They won seven games in the end, and they are
Speaker 1: kind of better. Yeah, they were kind of fine in
Speaker 1: the end. So the vibes matter.
Speaker 3: I don't believe that there's nothing but numbers out there, right, Like,
Speaker 3: vibes matter, Like these guys are human beings, their attitudes
Speaker 3: matter and all that. But what I try to do
Speaker 3: is point out places that you may not realize that
Speaker 3: certain things are better or worse than you thought they were.
Speaker 1: And look, your DVOA, which I think is also useful
Speaker 1: throughout the course of the season, often is ahead of
Speaker 1: where consensus thinking is. You guys rightly pointed out in
Speaker 1: the book how Seattle more or less went wire to
Speaker 1: wire as the best team in the NFL last year,
Speaker 1: and your numbers were saying as early as like early
Speaker 1: October September, certainly throughout the rest of the season that like, yeah,
Speaker 1: this is probably the best team in the NFL, and
Speaker 1: they end up playing like it throughout the course of
Speaker 1: the season. They're one of the best teams according to
Speaker 1: the DVOA of the last twenty five years. So sometimes
Speaker 1: you got to listen to those numbers, even if you
Speaker 1: know it doesn't totally make sense to you. Let's go
Speaker 1: to some numbers that I would say, surprise me. I
Speaker 1: don't know if they didn't make sense, but I am
Speaker 1: bullish on the Cowboys and the Chargers, for instance, making
Speaker 1: the playoffs this year. They are both projected in your
Speaker 1: system to be totally average. I would say a little
Speaker 1: below average technically seventeenth and eighteenth overall in DVOWAY.
Speaker 2: When you look at those two teams and.
Speaker 1: Your model sees them very middle of the pack, not
Speaker 1: necessarily teams to get it excited about as Super Bowl contenders.
Speaker 1: When I have a feeling they'll be trendy, kind of
Speaker 1: dark horse picks. What are the things that gets in
Speaker 1: their way? Maybe of a better projection, The.
Speaker 3: First thing I'll say is that kind of like Lake
Speaker 3: will be gone, everybody is above average this year because
Speaker 3: the bad teams look so bad. Nineteen teams project to
Speaker 3: be above average, not sixteen, and so we are projecting
Speaker 3: the Chargers and the Cowboys to be above average even
Speaker 3: though they're seventeenth and eighteenth. The Cowboys, their defense last
Speaker 3: year was the third worst defense since nineteen seventy seven
Speaker 3: by DVOA. Of course, it's going to be better this year,
Speaker 3: but I don't know if it can be better than
Speaker 3: like twenty eighth in the league or something. Their offense,
Speaker 3: this surprised me, was only eighth last year. We feel
Speaker 3: like their offense was really awesome, but it was eighth.
Speaker 3: So to go from eighth to like fourteenth, you know,
Speaker 3: I mean subjectively I feel like they're better than fourteenth.
Speaker 3: I feel like they're more like eighth. But on the
Speaker 3: other hand, I mean, the system doesn't know this, But
Speaker 3: do you trust George Pickens to keep his head on
Speaker 3: straight for seventeen games? You know, there's stuff going on
Speaker 3: with that team where you're like, I don't know if
Speaker 3: I trust this. I agree with you that the best
Speaker 3: case scenario, the best case scenario is their defense goes
Speaker 3: all the way back to like average and their offense
Speaker 3: is fantastic and they win the division. I mean, it's
Speaker 3: you can absolutely tell that story of what's possible for
Speaker 3: the Dallas season. But what the projections are saying is
Speaker 3: sort of like slow your role a little bit. On
Speaker 3: how good they were last year.
Speaker 1: Pickens, don't expect the same season out of him. DeVante Williams.
Speaker 1: You're hoping he can stay healthy for an entire season,
Speaker 1: But that's a little bit of a gamble, you know,
Speaker 1: Dak said his injuries. Certainly they survived a lot of
Speaker 1: offensive line injuries, so that could actually be a plus.
Speaker 1: But how good is the offensive line? I think the
Speaker 1: better case for them excel, you know, exceeding these expectations
Speaker 1: or using another you know, precept you guys often talk
Speaker 1: about is how defense can be very inconsistent year to
Speaker 1: year like they and I think that the coaching and
Speaker 1: the defensive front are good enough. You know, they they
Speaker 1: absolutely could be average or slightly better than average with
Speaker 1: a good scheme, and I could see the scheme carrying them.
Speaker 2: What is it about the scheme?
Speaker 3: Uh?
Speaker 1: Or maybe the Chargers season. I was even more surprised
Speaker 1: that you kind of had them.
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Chargers was one that I personally don't quite get.
Speaker 3: We had them too low last year too. I don't
Speaker 3: know what it is about the Chargers that the system
Speaker 3: doesn't like. I know that's weird. I built the system.
Speaker 3: I should everything. Uh. I think there's a definite possibility
Speaker 3: that I'm not accounting enough for the return of Slater
Speaker 3: and Alt. What I will tell you is this, you
Speaker 3: don't know coaches are good. We think coaches are good.
Speaker 3: We think Mike McDaniel is going to dramatically improve the
Speaker 3: Chargers offense, but we don't know because we've only seen
Speaker 3: Mike McDaniel coach one offense. Usually when a coach is
Speaker 3: on the they're on the second team. The sample size
Speaker 3: of their success is one and so you don't know
Speaker 3: whether it was the coach or the players. I know
Speaker 3: that sounds ridiculous to suggest it was the players and
Speaker 3: not the coach in Miami, but you know, the quarterback
Speaker 3: had his problems, but the receivers and the running back
Speaker 3: were pretty good. You don't know whether Mike McDaniel is
Speaker 3: the genius that you think he is. It's not until
Speaker 3: you're Vic Fangio and you've been like eight places that
Speaker 3: you can have enough of a sample size that you
Speaker 3: can be like, yeah, this coach matters.
Speaker 1: Fair The case or McDaniel is that Kyle Sanahan did
Speaker 1: everything but like break labor laws to prevent him from
Speaker 1: ever leaving.
Speaker 2: He thought Mike McDaniel is so valuable.
Speaker 3: That yes, And I mean, listen, we want to talk
Speaker 3: about film study rather than stats. The run designs in
Speaker 3: Miami were fantastic, and what he got out of Tua
Speaker 3: was fantastic given what you know we know about Tua's talents.
Speaker 3: So you know, subjectively, I believe Mike McDaniel is a
Speaker 3: really good offensive coordinator. I do I feel like we
Speaker 3: had the chargers too low this year. We probably have
Speaker 3: the chargers too low. We had them too low last year.
Speaker 3: We probably have them too low again this year, but
Speaker 3: you don't know, new coaches both sides of the ball.
Speaker 3: Usually teams new coaches, you take a little bit of
Speaker 3: a step back. All of the things being equal. Defense
Speaker 3: has to get used to a new coordinator as well,
Speaker 3: so we'll have to see why. You know, I mean,
Speaker 3: it's not Herbert the Herbert. You know, every team has
Speaker 3: a quarterback projection. You start with the quarterback and then
Speaker 3: you put that into the offensive projection. Leberts is good,
Speaker 3: So it's not that I don't know quite why. This
Speaker 3: is the second straight year that we haven't had the
Speaker 3: Chargers higher.
Speaker 2: So I wanted to talk Bears.
Speaker 1: I wasn't surprised that you had them relatively in the
Speaker 1: middle of the league, depending on how you want to
Speaker 1: categorize it, make the playoffs DVOWA, but relatively in that
Speaker 1: middle and third in that division. You're pretty high on
Speaker 1: the Lions, and then you do have the Packers ahead
Speaker 1: of them too. But I just wanted to bring up
Speaker 1: they had the most dramatic split between offense defense, almost
Speaker 1: the most dramatic split you could possibly have, which you
Speaker 1: have them as the second ranked offense and the worst
Speaker 1: defense in the league. The only team that was even
Speaker 1: remotely close to that biggest split. You had the Packers
Speaker 1: as the fourth best offense and the twenty sixth best defense,
Speaker 1: which in my head makes sense. The Bears one is
Speaker 1: even more dramatic. But explain I guess that split and
Speaker 1: what you really see as negative in terms of the
Speaker 1: defense going that bad.
Speaker 3: As far as the offense. Second year in the system,
Speaker 3: it likes Caleb Williams projection. You know, number one pick
Speaker 3: in his third year, who played well last year, you know,
Speaker 3: not great, but good. DJ Moore is not losing a lot.
Speaker 3: It doesn't feel like given his performance last year. Defensive,
Speaker 3: every red light in our projection system goes off with
Speaker 3: the Bear. Okay, by far led the league in takeaways
Speaker 3: per drive by far. Huge regression coming on takeaways per
Speaker 3: drive third down much better than first and second down.
Speaker 3: Big sign of regression. Talent loss. They lost a bunch
Speaker 3: of guys. They lost an all Pro safety. I know
Speaker 3: we can talk about oh, but the guy they signed
Speaker 3: from Seattle is really good. And they drafted Daneman and
Speaker 3: he's good. I understand that. And so in our talent
Speaker 3: variable we're including what they added, not just what they lost,
Speaker 3: but they lost a lot of talent, and I know,
Speaker 3: like Jalen Johnson will play a full year and he's
Speaker 3: very good, and that makes them better. It's just the
Speaker 3: defense just pings all the red lights.
Speaker 1: It is hard to win back to front they did
Speaker 1: last year in terms of the secondary being the best
Speaker 1: part of your team. The Denissance Dennis Allen is a
Speaker 1: real thing. He's a good coordinator, had a nice had
Speaker 1: a nice season. But counting on that again, the defensive line, Like,
Speaker 1: there's a reason that all they're talking about in Chicago
Speaker 1: this offseason is the lack of a passers. They have
Speaker 1: no passers. Speaking of the Denissance, he came from New Orleans.
Speaker 1: I was a little stunned that you had them thirty
Speaker 1: first in DVOA. You have them as a bottom three offense.
Speaker 1: The defense I could see, but you have them as
Speaker 1: a bottom three offense, and you have them as the
Speaker 1: worst team in the NFC and the lowest NFC odds
Speaker 1: to make the playoffs despite being in the NFC South.
Speaker 2: Answer to the Saints fans, Yeah yeah.
Speaker 3: This is another one that subjectively feels low. I totally
Speaker 3: admit it. Their defense was good last year. It just
Speaker 3: it sees you know some of the losses, and it
Speaker 3: sees regression to they did the year before. What we
Speaker 3: call the plexiglass principle, which is the teams or units
Speaker 3: that dramatically improve from one year to the next tend
Speaker 3: to take a step back in the third year. On offense,
Speaker 3: you know, it doesn't like what they were good at
Speaker 3: versus The other thing about defense is they were much
Speaker 3: better against the run than the past, which doesn't carry
Speaker 3: over from year to year as much. On offense, you know,
Speaker 3: shock is okay, but it looks at a quarterback who
Speaker 3: is okay and is a second round pick and says
Speaker 3: in year two, this is not as likely to be
Speaker 3: as good as a quarterback who's okay and as a
Speaker 3: top pick, because that's just history. And so yeah, it
Speaker 3: has the Saints.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 3: The funny thing is the chapter talks about that we
Speaker 3: think the Saints are on the right path and that
Speaker 3: in that division there's a legit shot, like we could
Speaker 3: be wrong about the Bucks rebounding, and then everybody's got
Speaker 3: a shot in that division, and that includes the Saints.
Speaker 3: So I think if you read the chapter in the
Speaker 3: FTN Football Almanac, we don't come off as being as
Speaker 3: negative about the Saints, as the numbers are. I talk
Speaker 3: a lot about teams where you can tell a story
Speaker 3: right where there are teams that we project to be bad,
Speaker 3: but you understand why we might be wrong. And the
Speaker 3: Saints have the story. They have the young quarterback and
Speaker 3: the defense that improved in the second half, and you
Speaker 3: can see where they would be much better than this projection,
Speaker 3: as opposed to a team like you know, Cleveland, where
Speaker 3: you can't really tell the story.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's totally fair.
Speaker 1: It's also worth noticing we're going to get into a
Speaker 1: team the Dolphins with with Dan a little bit later,
Speaker 1: which has a record number of dead cap money this
Speaker 1: year is Saints team still has a ton of dead
Speaker 1: cap and they survived it last year to at least
Speaker 1: have an improved season. But when you're just not able
Speaker 1: to use the resources that the rest of the NFL
Speaker 1: is using, they'll be out of that cap, you know,
Speaker 1: hell after this year.
Speaker 2: But that is a problem for them. All right.
Speaker 1: We did eight teams my ninth I'm just gonna mention
Speaker 1: quickly before we say goodbyes, I just want to give
Speaker 1: a little shout out to the Cardinals. You have them
Speaker 1: better than eight or nine teams. You know, depending on
Speaker 1: how you want to measure it, you do not have
Speaker 1: the Cardinals as the very bottom of the bottom. You
Speaker 1: kind of have them as the top of the bottom.
Speaker 1: I would say there is a little bit of a cutoff, especially.
Speaker 2: In the NFC. It's a team not likely to make
Speaker 2: the playoffs.
Speaker 1: The Cardinals are one of them, certainly, but maybe not
Speaker 1: the tire fire that everyone has expected.
Speaker 3: The Cardinals were twenty third twenty third in overall Dvoa
Speaker 3: less rays the banner despite being the most injured team
Speaker 3: in the league. And they're going to be healthier this year,
Speaker 3: and they have the hardest schedule just like last year.
Speaker 3: Last year they had the hardest schedule. They project to
Speaker 3: have the hardest schedule. Now this is the team where
Speaker 3: I was talking about vibes. I can tell you numbers,
Speaker 3: and I can tell you they were twenty third last year.
Speaker 3: I can tell you that this player is better than
Speaker 3: you think. And they didn't get rid of Josh Sweat
Speaker 3: Will Johnson in his second year. I can go on,
Speaker 3: but the vibes are terrible. And if you said to
Speaker 3: me one team, you know, I definitely think their Vegas
Speaker 3: over unders like three and a half or something. All
Speaker 3: they have to do is win four out of eleven
Speaker 3: non division games to go over that. But I know
Speaker 3: the vibes are really bad there, and the vibes may
Speaker 3: win out over the number.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the the X factor is whether Mike Lafleur is
Speaker 1: a better head coach than we would really have any
Speaker 1: reason to know right now.
Speaker 2: I don't particularly tend to.
Speaker 3: The chapter is pretty negative about Lafleur. He was a
Speaker 3: weird hire. And Nathaniel Hackett his offensive coordinator. I know
Speaker 3: he's not the play caller, but that's even weirder.
Speaker 2: It is a little weirder.
Speaker 1: But sometimes these head coaching hires they surprise us. Aaron,
Speaker 1: your projection surprised me. No, they didn't shock me for
Speaker 1: the most part, but we went over nine of the
Speaker 1: more surprising teams. Everyone should go buy Aaron Shotz's FTN Almanac.
Speaker 2: You can get the print copy, which is big.
Speaker 3: I like it.
Speaker 2: You can get the digital copy if you want. You
Speaker 2: go to FTN.
Speaker 1: You go to Aaron Shotts's social to find all the
Speaker 1: information to go get that and appreciate having you on Aaron.
Speaker 2: Thank you.
Speaker 3: Ftnfantasy dot Com slash Almanac is where you get the
Speaker 3: PDF version.
Speaker 1: Appreciate you, and we're not done yet pumping up your
Speaker 1: book because we have one of your great writers from
Speaker 1: the book, Dan Pezuda, coming up after the break to
Speaker 1: talk about six of the teams in a little more depth.
Speaker 2: Back in a minute.
Speaker 1: So I mentioned before the break we're going to have
Speaker 1: a first time guest on NFL Daily.
Speaker 2: It is Dan Pezuda.
Speaker 1: He's done great work elsewhere, including with the thirty third team,
Speaker 1: but in this scenario we have him on because he
Speaker 1: wrote six team previews in the FDM Almanac that we
Speaker 1: mentioned earlier.
Speaker 2: What is going on, Dan?
Speaker 4: Yeah, thanks for having me, walktime listener. Happy to you
Speaker 4: to be here and talk some football and previewing the season.
Speaker 4: Can't believe like we're in that time.
Speaker 1: Finally, this is the last quiet week. I've mentioned it
Speaker 1: a few different times. It will be the last weekend
Speaker 1: without training camp. I didn't couldn't even find any real
Speaker 1: news to talk about on.
Speaker 2: This show, but that is not a bad thing.
Speaker 1: The one thing actually mine that I will mention quickly
Speaker 1: is that Alvin Kamara signed a new deal with the
Speaker 1: Saints for less money but still plenty of money, and
Speaker 1: it sounds like he'll have one final rodeo there as
Speaker 1: a member of the Saints, which is great. Our friends
Speaker 1: at the Saints Block Party podcast actually reporting that Gail Benson,
Speaker 1: the owner, got involved here.
Speaker 2: I love it.
Speaker 1: She doesn't do that too often, but she got involved
Speaker 1: when she got Mickey Loomis's old buddy Dennis Allen out
Speaker 1: the pay and out of that job a few years
Speaker 1: ago now, and it sounds like she got involved keeping
Speaker 1: Alvin Kamara for one more year, which I love to
Speaker 1: see talk though. Dan, like I mentioned, you wrote six
Speaker 1: team previews, which is one of the reasons why I
Speaker 1: love the Almanac so well.
Speaker 2: It's great writing. It's not just about the numbers.
Speaker 1: But you were tasked with previewing the AFC East and
Speaker 1: then a couple of the AFC North teams, the Lions
Speaker 1: and the Viking. So one assignment I gave you for
Speaker 1: this show is to come up with one number just
Speaker 1: as a jumping off point for each one of these
Speaker 1: six teams, and we'll kind of just dive into that
Speaker 1: number and talk about these teams on the show. So
Speaker 1: let's start with the Buffalo Bills, who I mentioned earlier.
Speaker 1: Dan with Aaron is projected according to FDN, to have
Speaker 1: the second most amount of wins in the AFC, has
Speaker 1: the second highest Super Bowl odds, a decent amount behind
Speaker 1: the Houston Texans, but still, you know, right at the
Speaker 1: top of the league. What is the one number you
Speaker 1: have here to help explain this Buffalo Bills team.
Speaker 4: Yeah, So the one that stood out to me, frind
Speaker 4: and it's kind of a last year thing that's going
Speaker 4: to shape this year is Josh Allen saw the highest
Speaker 4: rate of man coverage among all quarterbacks in the league,
Speaker 4: and we typically don't see that one against good quarterbacks
Speaker 4: and two against mobile quarterbacks because you know, when you're
Speaker 4: in ban coverage, a lot of defensive backs are going
Speaker 4: to turn the back. That allows the quarterbacks to run
Speaker 4: a little bit. But there were zero receivers that scared
Speaker 4: any opposing defense last year, and so Allen was nineteenth
Speaker 4: and yards for drop back against man coverage. He was
Speaker 4: eighth against zone, and I think when you look at it,
Speaker 4: kind of went into ESPN has like their retriever or
Speaker 4: receiver tracking metrics and have the open score. Josh Palmer
Speaker 4: was the top Bill and he ranked thirty first, but
Speaker 4: he was only on the field of forty percent of
Speaker 4: the snaps.
Speaker 5: The like main guys.
Speaker 4: Khalil Shakir was seventy third, Keyon Coleman was sixty eighth.
Speaker 4: And there are some issues with open score. You know,
Speaker 4: we don't really know where these guys are supposed to be,
Speaker 4: and like you have a guy's like eighty Mitchell like
Speaker 4: on the Jets who tracks really well in the open score,
Speaker 4: whether he's where he's supposed to be when he is open, like,
Speaker 4: that's kind of the questions you can have with that
Speaker 4: type of metric. But the fact that just no one
Speaker 4: was really getting open on their own really hindered what
Speaker 4: this offense could potentially do. And I think that kind
Speaker 4: of can lead us into Dj Moore the acquisition, which
Speaker 4: I didn't really understand and understand the trade value. I
Speaker 4: don't also understand the contract that they gave him, But
Speaker 4: I think he objectively makes this offense better and kind
Speaker 4: of opens up what they can potentially do this coming season.
Speaker 1: It's a great number to point out, and it's a crime, frankly,
Speaker 1: that the most effective, efficient, dangerous play in football of
Speaker 1: the last half decade plus is a Josh Allen run
Speaker 1: and yet he is facing like that much man coverage
Speaker 1: and that it's that ineffective. And yeah, some of the
Speaker 1: numbers I went through and read all your chapters of
Speaker 1: course before this were not great for the receivers.
Speaker 2: Even Khalios.
Speaker 1: It was starting to be a little diminishing returns in
Speaker 1: terms of what he was doing after the catch and
Speaker 1: how open he is.
Speaker 2: And that might just be because of his surroundings.
Speaker 1: He does not profile as a number one guy, and
Speaker 1: it's going to help out to have a little more help.
Speaker 1: But look, Joe Brady wanted to do a ball control offense,
Speaker 1: and you guys pointed out too that I thought your
Speaker 1: number you might have picked was I think they had
Speaker 1: the slowest paced offense since two thousand and seven, and
Speaker 1: it worked pretty well for them.
Speaker 2: But I also don't love like this.
Speaker 1: Let's just possess the ball as long as we can
Speaker 1: when Josh Allen is your quarterback.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's definitely the thing that it's the kind of
Speaker 4: just the disconnect of what they have at quarterback and
Speaker 4: kind of the team they built around, especially when you
Speaker 4: know the past year and a half or so, the defense,
Speaker 4: you just weren't really sure what you were getting from it.
Speaker 4: So the idea to be able to build up that
Speaker 4: offensive line, which they wanted to do. Like for all
Speaker 4: of Josh Allen's career, really every year they kept saying,
Speaker 4: we want to have this run game, and finally, once
Speaker 4: Joe Brady came in, they were actually able to get it.
Speaker 4: In the past two years, they've really been able to
Speaker 4: rely on that a little bit. But then you also
Speaker 4: have Josh Allen. You're kind of hindering some of the
Speaker 4: things he can do on a play to play basis
Speaker 4: when you are focusing so hard on that run game.
Speaker 4: So I think with DJ Moore now they might just
Speaker 4: be able to open it up a little more. Everyone
Speaker 4: else in that offense now just makes a little more sense.
Speaker 4: I don't think DJ Moore is going to be some
Speaker 4: incredible individual wide receiver, but just in the way that
Speaker 4: you're able to now structure the offense around that, I
Speaker 4: think he's just going to be so much better than
Speaker 4: it was last year.
Speaker 1: Schedule is probably going to get harder for the Bills
Speaker 1: this year, but overall, the DVOA projections have them as
Speaker 1: the fourth overall team, third on offense, eighth on defense,
Speaker 1: which is pretty optimistic for that defense. And yeah, it's
Speaker 1: something we'll probably talk about in their full team preview,
Speaker 1: but I couldn't help but notice, if you really look
Speaker 1: at the numbers, at least according to the numbers you
Speaker 1: guys have, the Bills are almost unquestionably the greatest team
Speaker 1: of all time to never you know, the greatest team
Speaker 1: of all time to not reach the super Bowl, because
Speaker 1: if you look at five year you know runs of
Speaker 1: them being good, it's really their last three years. And
Speaker 1: you could argue two of the greatest teams of the
Speaker 1: last fifty years not to make the Super Bowl are
Speaker 1: this version of the Bills and this version of the Ravens.
Speaker 1: The other two teams you would throw in there are
Speaker 1: like the late seventies Rams and then the late twenty
Speaker 1: tens Drew Brees Saints teams that didn't quite get there.
Speaker 1: But it is crazy that these Bills and Ravens teams.
Speaker 1: It's not it doesn't just feel that way. They really
Speaker 1: are maybe among the greatest teams of all time that
Speaker 1: have never made the Super Bowl.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and even with the New Orleans like they were
Speaker 4: there and then they continued to be good and didn't
Speaker 4: make the super Bowl. For where these the Ravens and
Speaker 4: this version of the Ravens and this version of the bills.
Speaker 4: They just haven't been there at all, and that it
Speaker 4: seems crazy, which we continue to keep saying like they're
Speaker 4: they're probably do. These teams continue to be good, so
Speaker 4: we will continue to pump them up. But yeah, it
Speaker 4: is a historic stretch of being this good and not
Speaker 4: really getting.
Speaker 3: Over the hup.
Speaker 1: It's crazy. Although Saints fans will push back on you
Speaker 1: and be like, those.
Speaker 2: Michael Thomas teams were not the same.
Speaker 1: Those are some of the greatest teams of all time
Speaker 1: that didn't that didn't make it that it is crazy
Speaker 1: that I thought those teams were as good or better
Speaker 1: than the Saints team that won the Super Bowl.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 2: The Miami Dolphins are next.
Speaker 1: They are a team that is not going to be
Speaker 1: projected to be one of the best teams in the
Speaker 1: league by literally anyone.
Speaker 2: What is the number you have for them?
Speaker 4: Right, So I'm gonna it's kind of like an off
Speaker 4: field number, but I think it kind of shapes what
Speaker 4: the Dolphins are this year. And fifty nine point six
Speaker 4: percent of their salary cap is dead money this year,
Speaker 4: and I think we got to get carried away with
Speaker 4: dead money a little bit. And usually individually it's not
Speaker 4: as bad as a lot of people try to make
Speaker 4: it out to be, but this is the highest rate
Speaker 4: since easily the highest rates since twenty thirteen, and have
Speaker 4: a table in the chapter. The next highest is the
Speaker 4: twenty thirteen Oakland Raiders, who had forty seven point one percent.
Speaker 4: So the Dolphins right now are almost at sixty. So
Speaker 4: when you just kind of look at what the shape
Speaker 4: of the Dolphins are right now, it's a complete rebuild.
Speaker 4: And really this is like a year zero of a rebuild,
Speaker 4: kind of like a college that we've kind of seen
Speaker 4: in a way where you're completely just taking this down
Speaker 4: to the studs and trying to figure out what this
Speaker 4: offense or what this whole team is going to be.
Speaker 1: Yeah, if you were looking for some optimism Dolphins fans,
Speaker 1: the projections actually had the Dolphins at twenty sixth in DVOA,
Speaker 1: higher than I think four AFC teams. So it doesn't
Speaker 1: have you as as the very worst. But I am
Speaker 1: going to be emphasizing this with the number you point
Speaker 1: out that it's almost sixty percent of dead cap.
Speaker 2: It's unprecedented.
Speaker 1: I mean, as long as as anyone's been keeping track
Speaker 1: of it, it is leaps and bounds higher than any
Speaker 1: team ever, And yes, there is a level of dead
Speaker 1: cap where some teams have been relatively successful, but on
Speaker 1: the table you guys show Look that the top eight
Speaker 1: teams in terms of dead cap percentage of all time
Speaker 1: all have losing records. Like the best one of them
Speaker 1: among them was a seven and ten Falcons team after
Speaker 1: they cut Matt Ryan. And you know, even then seven
Speaker 1: to ten is maybe the upper limits. So it it
Speaker 1: just goes to show we all kind of know it.
Speaker 1: But there have been rebuilds before. This is about as
Speaker 1: dramatic in terms of the financial penalty that any team.
Speaker 2: Has ever had.
Speaker 1: All right, let's get to a team in the Patriots
Speaker 1: that I was really curious what the numbers would spit
Speaker 1: out after, you know, such an improvement last year overall
Speaker 1: has them third among AFC teams in Super Bowl odds
Speaker 1: that the AFC is pretty clustered the top seven or
Speaker 1: eight teams, but they are definitely in that mix, seventh
Speaker 1: overall in DVOA. So actually not the hugest decline overall
Speaker 1: in terms of the Patriots projections.
Speaker 2: What's a number that stood out to you for them?
Speaker 4: All right, So, as as a pat would you rather
Speaker 4: talk about the offense or the defense to start off.
Speaker 2: Just because we haven't done it that much. Let's go defense.
Speaker 4: Okay, So the defense is interesting because I think that
Speaker 4: it really is going to kind of shape what this past,
Speaker 4: this next year could be. So through Week fourteen, New
Speaker 4: England blitz twenty five point five percent of the time.
Speaker 4: That was twenty six and they were twenty ninth in
Speaker 4: pressure rate. After the buye that jumped up to a
Speaker 4: thirty five percent blitz rate, which was ninth, and they
Speaker 4: were fifteenth in pressure rate in the playoffs a forty
Speaker 4: three point four percent blitz rate and a thirty eight
Speaker 4: point seven percent pressure rate. Those would have ranked second
Speaker 4: and first respectively throughout the regular season. During the playoffs,
Speaker 4: the Patriots had a better DEVO way against the past
Speaker 4: than the Seahawks did. So this is a defense that
Speaker 4: we don't really like to say what happened at the
Speaker 4: in like a second half of the year or at
Speaker 4: the end of the year is going to translate. But
Speaker 4: the way the Patriots completely like really shifted their defense,
Speaker 4: really leaned into that blitz, trusted the secondary that they had,
Speaker 4: it really helped. On top of that, when Milton Williams
Speaker 4: and Christian Barmore were on the field together, they had
Speaker 4: a sack rate that would have been equal to first
Speaker 4: in the league, and that was something that they didn't
Speaker 4: get as often as they would have liked because both
Speaker 4: of them kind of missed staggering amounts of time. So
Speaker 4: when this defense is healthy and the way we're now
Speaker 4: going to have, you know, Zach Kerr having this for
Speaker 4: a full year as the defensive coordinator, I think it's
Speaker 4: going to be real interesting to see how this defense
Speaker 4: wants to be structurally and if they are going to
Speaker 4: kind of wean into that bitz a little bit.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I really am curious about Zach Corer in what
Speaker 1: his two point zero is going to be because if
Speaker 1: he didn't get the job in strange circumstances, he took
Speaker 1: over when when Terrell Williams had had his healthcare and
Speaker 1: threw wims Is back with the staff, but he's going
Speaker 1: to be an assistant head coach. If he hadn't come,
Speaker 1: you know, along that way, and we had known him
Speaker 1: a little bit before, if he was like from some tree,
Speaker 1: I think everyone would be talking about him as one
Speaker 1: of the most exciting young defensive minds in the league.
Speaker 1: Now there's been a lot of like flashy defensive minds
Speaker 1: as a coach that have like a year or two
Speaker 1: where they pop and then they just kind of take
Speaker 1: a back seat. So I am like really curious because
Speaker 1: talent wise, it's a pretty good defense. I don't know
Speaker 1: if it's better or worse. They lost a few players,
Speaker 1: they brought a few in, but I would say it's
Speaker 1: an average to better than average talent. But if you
Speaker 1: combine that with a guy who's a bit of a
Speaker 1: scheme wizard, he was down the stretch last year, then
Speaker 1: you have a pretty good unit.
Speaker 4: Yeah, And I think that's going to be super interesting
Speaker 4: because I think you have the talent that can allow
Speaker 4: them to blitz in that way if they want to
Speaker 4: stay like, no one's going to be the Brian Flores Vikings,
Speaker 4: but I think like the playoff Patriots were like close,
Speaker 4: and so I don't think they're going to do that
Speaker 4: for a full year. But if they lean more into that,
Speaker 4: that makes them a very interesting defense, which I think
Speaker 4: just kind of could give the offense a little more
Speaker 4: margin for error too.
Speaker 1: And they're just not that young a defense like Brian Flores.
Speaker 1: I think the familiarity with the system allows you to
Speaker 1: do more, and they have a lot of veterans. I
Speaker 1: think they're going to trust to be where they're supposed
Speaker 1: to be and they'll know the system a little better.
Speaker 1: What was the offensive number while we're here, I mean
Speaker 1: totally biased that the Patriots get two numbers and every
Speaker 1: other team gets one.
Speaker 4: But with that so the offense, I was just going
Speaker 4: to point out their explosive pass free with thirteen point
Speaker 4: seven percent, which was the highest in the league. That
Speaker 4: was almost a percentage point and a half above the Bills.
Speaker 4: There are only two other offenses in the past five
Speaker 4: years that have even gotten to thirteen percent, and those
Speaker 4: were the forty nine Ers in twenty nineteen and twenty
Speaker 4: twenty three. So I think this is an offense that,
Speaker 4: while working with not you know, obviously the greatest receiving corps,
Speaker 4: had this explosive pass rate that was easily the highest
Speaker 4: in the league.
Speaker 5: I think now will continue to see that.
Speaker 4: I don't know if they're going to hit that high again,
Speaker 4: but with aj Brown Romeo Dobbs, I think this is
Speaker 4: another place where everyone just makes more sense in that offense,
Speaker 4: and I think they'll be able to war in the
Speaker 4: rhythm of the offense have some of these explosive plays
Speaker 4: to keep that going.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: One number you guys had too that made me feel
Speaker 1: better was they were also second in DVOA on short passes,
Speaker 1: only behind you know, their old friend Mac Jones in
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers.
Speaker 2: So you know, they can win in multiple types of ways.
Speaker 1: They are gonna be in a league that is getting
Speaker 1: increasingly heavy, especially after the injury that They've already had
Speaker 1: a tight end this offseason with Julian Hill. They were
Speaker 1: great with three receivers on the field last year, you know,
Speaker 1: and I think they're gonna have three receivers on the
Speaker 1: field quite a bit, just because I think that's where
Speaker 1: their strength is is a depth at wide receiver. Which
Speaker 1: is crazy to say about the Patriots, but they just
Speaker 1: have five or six guys that they like that they
Speaker 1: can trust, and they frankly don't have a second tight
Speaker 1: end anymore.
Speaker 2: So it's going to be a lot of three receivers.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 5: I'm a big Ui Riden fan.
Speaker 4: I think that's going to that could be helpful, you know,
Speaker 4: but maybe you know, it's second half.
Speaker 5: Of the year a little bit.
Speaker 4: But yeah, like you said, this could be like a
Speaker 4: hockey shift at wide receiver, and they could completely change
Speaker 4: out guys and still have enough talent there. I keep
Speaker 4: aj Brown fresh and things like that. So I think
Speaker 4: there is a lot to like about the offense, even
Speaker 4: if some of the you know, high, the crazy rate
Speaker 4: of you know, deep passes completions that we saw last
Speaker 4: year might not sustain. I think they have a lot
Speaker 4: to make up for it to kind of stave off
Speaker 4: some of the the regression that they might have otherwise.
Speaker 1: So I'm reading the Jets profile that you did, and
Speaker 1: one of the things that is a slight weakness. It's
Speaker 1: not anything the FTN could do to all the great
Speaker 1: numbers because it really goes in depth of who had,
Speaker 1: you know, the best pace and who was the best
Speaker 1: with who rushed five the most and six the most,
Speaker 1: and it really breaks it down in all sorts of
Speaker 1: different ways. But usually for the worst teams in the league,
Speaker 1: that section is less valuable because they've always you know,
Speaker 1: taken out the coaches. But not in the case of
Speaker 1: Aaron Glenn. I was reading the Aaron Glenn Jets' profile
Speaker 1: and thinking, this sounds like a profile of a team
Speaker 1: that changed everything, but ultimately they didn't. I know, they
Speaker 1: changed their coordinators out and Aaron Glenn is gonna call plays.
Speaker 1: But ultimately it's a team that struggled last year. The
Speaker 1: projection model has them struggling, and they have them ahead
Speaker 1: of the Browns, but that is the only team that
Speaker 1: the DVOA has ahead of it going into the year.
Speaker 1: What is the number that stood out to you the most?
Speaker 4: So the interceptions is what we kind of focused on
Speaker 4: a lot for this Jets defense, and because it was zero,
Speaker 4: it's the first team to ever do that. But the
Speaker 4: Jets were just historically bad at forcing turnovers in general.
Speaker 4: They only they had the thirty first in drives ending
Speaker 4: with the fumble. They were eight fumbles on defense and
Speaker 4: recovered only three. One point seven percent of their drives
Speaker 4: ended in a turnover, which is the lowest we have
Speaker 4: since nineteen ninety three. The next lowest is at four percent.
Speaker 4: So they're just historically bad at creating turnovers, and obviously
Speaker 4: that's something we're going to see regress a little bit.
Speaker 4: They were able to get their hands on the ball.
Speaker 4: They had the same number of pass deflections as the
Speaker 4: Patriots did last year, and we kind of expect round
Speaker 4: twenty percent of passes. Defense usually end up as interceptions.
Speaker 4: So even if it's ten percent this next year, like,
Speaker 4: we're going to see a lot more turnovers happened for
Speaker 4: this Jets defense, especially with the talent that they also
Speaker 4: brought in. It's not the sexiest talent, but I think
Speaker 4: they're going to go from pretty bad to maybe competent,
Speaker 4: And I think that really does change what this Jets
Speaker 4: defense could possibly be, just because they were so insanely
Speaker 4: historically bad at forcing turnovers last year.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you pointed out they look it could be
Speaker 1: eight out of eleven new defensive starters. You know, some
Speaker 1: of the guys. It's tough to even know what to think.
Speaker 1: Where did you land? I had such an immediate negative
Speaker 1: reaction to all the older players that they signed and
Speaker 1: that man they're playing to them. As the offseason's gone along,
Speaker 1: I've warmed up to it a little bit. I think
Speaker 1: they're just trying to be respectable this year while they
Speaker 1: find some young players and if they're coached up better,
Speaker 1: like I can see a path to improvement. Kind of
Speaker 1: where did you land on? Just in general what the
Speaker 1: Jets did on defense?
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think it.
Speaker 4: I'm I'm okay with it for it's gonna help in
Speaker 4: twenty twenty six. I don't know what it's going to
Speaker 4: mean for twenty twenty seven, when this is probably going
Speaker 4: to matter more for the Jets. So I think it's
Speaker 4: like it kind of feels like the Commanders a couple
Speaker 4: of years ago when they went out and signed all
Speaker 4: of those aging veterans just to be competent around Jayden Daniels.
Speaker 4: And this team doesn't have a Jaden Daniels to do
Speaker 4: that with either. So I think we're this defense is
Speaker 4: again going to look very different in twenty twenty seven,
Speaker 4: but it might be okay in twenty twenty six. I
Speaker 4: guess that's fine if they just want to be competent,
Speaker 4: But in terms of what this team needs to build
Speaker 4: going forward, I'm not sure it really helps in the
Speaker 4: long term.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I'm really curious how the whole Aaron Glenn
Speaker 1: taking over the defense goes.
Speaker 2: We'll see.
Speaker 1: All Right, So you did the AFC East, but you
Speaker 1: also did two of the great teams in the NFC North.
Speaker 1: The Vikings are a fascinating team to me. They have
Speaker 1: among the highest variants I think of any team in
Speaker 1: the NFL. That's partly because their defense plays crazy partly
Speaker 1: because it's a brand new quarterback.
Speaker 2: What's the number you got for the Vikings.
Speaker 4: Yeah, So I'm gonna stick with the offense here and
Speaker 4: kind of go with the Kyler Murray and kind of
Speaker 4: how we are framing him coming into this situation. So
Speaker 4: in twenty twenty four, which is really the last full
Speaker 4: year we had of Kyler, he ran the fifth most
Speaker 4: plays of under center play action. He was twenty first
Speaker 4: in dv AWA on those plays, but overall for the
Speaker 4: season he was twelfth and passing dv away at eleven
Speaker 4: point nine percent, and that was barely under Sam Darnold's
Speaker 4: twelve point four percent in twenty twenty four, and that
Speaker 4: was the year he broke out with the Vikings and
Speaker 4: we all decided he was good again. So there was
Speaker 4: only a half a percentage point between Kyler and good
Speaker 4: Sam Darnald. So I think one place is I think
Speaker 4: there's a much higher baseline for Kyler coming into this
Speaker 4: situation than some of these other like reclamation quarterbacks that
Speaker 4: we've seen, like a Daniel Jones or even like a
Speaker 4: Geno when he started. He has a much higher kind
Speaker 4: of what he's proven already in some of his really
Speaker 4: good seasons. It hasn't been consistent, but he has that
Speaker 4: and I think he still has a little more familiarity
Speaker 4: with some of the things he's going to be asked
Speaker 4: to do in this Kevin O'Connell offense, with some of
Speaker 4: the under center play action, and none of the numbers
Speaker 4: that I had earlier or like include his running ability,
Speaker 4: which I think is still going to be a weapon,
Speaker 4: even if it's not like the thing he does the
Speaker 4: most anymore. He still has that ability, and I think
Speaker 4: that's really going to translate and setting much higher bar
Speaker 4: than we've kind of seen of how we've really talked
Speaker 4: about Kyler as this quarterback who's kind of like one
Speaker 4: of these reclamation projects.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a great It's a great point because there
Speaker 1: are aspects of the offense he's going to be learning
Speaker 1: that were in the Cliff offense. Kyler at this point
Speaker 1: has been in a handful of different offenses in the NFL.
Speaker 1: Also a great point that, yeah, Kyler's like average season,
Speaker 1: which you know people have had higher expectations for him,
Speaker 1: is basically how the level of play that Sam Darnold's
Speaker 1: had for the last couple of seasons and they won
Speaker 1: a Super Bowl he got it in slightly different ways,
Speaker 1: but I totally agree with that. Let's wrap up with
Speaker 1: the Detroit Lions. Give me one number that helps explain
Speaker 1: the Lions, And before I ask you for I did
Speaker 1: want to just tell the listeners that they in terms
Speaker 1: of FTN projects the Lions as a really good team
Speaker 1: third overall. I believe in the NFC in terms of
Speaker 1: DVOA behind the Rams and the Seahawks, one of the
Speaker 1: only teams last year to be top ten in offense,
Speaker 1: defense and special teams. So they do not project a
Speaker 1: big decline for this Lions team.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think that's playing with health a little bit.
Speaker 4: We still don't really know what Kirby Joseph and Brian
Speaker 4: Branch are going to be and the projections had a
Speaker 4: little hard time. I went back and forth with Aaron
Speaker 4: about that where I think there's still a little more.
Speaker 4: I think we're a little higher on the defense than
Speaker 4: maybe it might be in reality, but the offense is
Speaker 4: probably not going to be a problem. But that is
Speaker 4: where I have this number. So Jamir Gibbs is going
Speaker 4: to be the guy this year, and he was the
Speaker 4: leed back, but now he's really going to be the
Speaker 4: leed back, so on eighty seven early down carries from
Speaker 4: eleven personnel. Last year, Gibbs averaged six point five yards
Speaker 4: per carry, twenty seven percent success rate and ten point
Speaker 4: eight percent dvoa. Ron eighty eight carries from twelve personnel
Speaker 4: three point seven yards per carry, a thirty four percent
Speaker 4: success rate and negative twenty three point nine percent DVOA.
Speaker 4: And so with Drew Petsing coming in, there's some more
Speaker 4: tight ends. He was very tight end heavy in Arizona.
Speaker 4: I'm just curious of what this offense, especially this run game,
Speaker 4: is going to look like. I have confidence that they're
Speaker 4: going to figure it out. That Gives is a better,
Speaker 4: you know, heavier personnel runner than he showed last year.
Speaker 4: I think it's going to be better. But how often
Speaker 4: they're using eleven personnel. I don't think they're going to
Speaker 4: use a lot of thirteen because you don't want to
Speaker 4: take Jameson Williams off the field. But in all of that,
Speaker 4: I just think it's going to be very interesting how
Speaker 4: they're constructing this offense, and it might be a little
Speaker 4: slow to get started, but then I think we'll eventually
Speaker 4: see them kind of figure out what the best balance is.
Speaker 2: Going to be? Yeah, how how good is this offensive line?
Speaker 2: I think?
Speaker 5: Is that think that that's going to be a big
Speaker 5: thing too?
Speaker 1: Like its just when you listed some of those numbers,
Speaker 1: and then there was also some in the profile in
Speaker 1: the team preview of just like how much they struggled
Speaker 1: in short yardage and that speaks to the struggles with
Speaker 1: heavy personnel. Just doesn't make sense with the running backs
Speaker 1: that they have, but they just weren't. They weren't the same.
Speaker 1: And you know, how much better is Tate ratlet is
Speaker 1: going to be? How much better is Christian Mahogany if
Speaker 1: he wins that job going to be? How good are
Speaker 1: they in the middle? Like it's pena Soled, it's a
Speaker 1: lot of ifs. Like to me, offensive line is always
Speaker 1: very difficult to predict, and they're among the highest variance
Speaker 1: offensive lines. If they hit like closer to the top
Speaker 1: of the possibilities for their offensive line, they're right there
Speaker 1: to me with the Rams and the Seahawks as Super
Speaker 1: Bowl favorites in the NFC.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think so too, And I have even if
Speaker 4: they are about average, I have confidence that they're going
Speaker 4: to be able to scheme around that, and so I
Speaker 4: don't have as much worry about the variant of this
Speaker 4: offense as I do potentially the defense if that's not
Speaker 4: fully healthy going forward.
Speaker 1: It got to be one of the best nine win
Speaker 1: teams in a while. A lot of your file is
Speaker 1: about like the Lions were better than you remember last year.
Speaker 1: It was disappointing, but they were the catastrophe that everyone remembers. Dan,
Speaker 1: appreciate you. Like I said previously with the thirty third team,
Speaker 1: he wrote a lot everyone should check out the FTN
Speaker 1: Almanac and go, you know, buy that. And if you're
Speaker 1: out there and you're in a hiring position too, I know,
Speaker 1: I know, Dan, you're you're looking for work and one
Speaker 1: of the best talkers writers that have been coming up
Speaker 1: in the industry.
Speaker 2: Appreciate your work. Thanks for coming on the show.
Speaker 5: Yeah, thanks so much for having me appreciate it.
Speaker 1: All right, that was this week of NFL Daily. We
Speaker 1: will be back, of course next week. We're starting to
Speaker 1: crank up towards daily. We're just about there with the
Speaker 1: training camp, you know, starting next week for a couple
Speaker 1: of the teams in the Hall of Fame, and then
Speaker 1: by the weekend all the teams will be showing up
Speaker 1: soon enough, we will be here on Monday. It'll be
Speaker 1: myself and Nick Shook talking and previewing all the camp
Speaker 1: battles from a round the league.
Speaker 2: In the meantime, enjoy your weekend
Speaker 4: MHM.