WEBVTT - Eight Surprising Team Projections 0:00:04.400 --> 0:00:08.760 Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're enjoying our last weekend 0:00:08.880 --> 0:00:12.560 before training camp begins. I'm Greg Rosenthal. I'm in Massachusetts, 0:00:12.640 --> 0:00:16.479 visiting the parents while I can before it gets too crazy, 0:00:16.520 --> 0:00:19.800 and talking to another Massachusetts resident. 0:00:20.280 --> 0:00:22.919 Yes, you know you love him, Aaron Shotts. 0:00:23.760 --> 0:00:28.680 He just wrote Aaron Shotts's FTN Almanac, also known formerly 0:00:28.720 --> 0:00:30.880 as the Football Outsiders Almanac way back in the day 0:00:30.880 --> 0:00:34.519 football perspectives. I was ready then for my money, the 0:00:34.680 --> 0:00:38.040 best season preview out there. We had him on last 0:00:38.080 --> 0:00:41.080 year to give us some surprising team projections, and we 0:00:41.240 --> 0:00:42.000 have them back. 0:00:42.040 --> 0:00:43.080 How are you doing, Aaron. 0:00:43.360 --> 0:00:45.239 I'm good man. I move got it out a few 0:00:45.320 --> 0:00:47.680 days earlier this year, and now I'm ready to talk 0:00:47.720 --> 0:00:50.639 to everybody about it. I'm ready for training camps. I'm 0:00:50.680 --> 0:00:54.680 ready for our long summer without the NFL to be over. Yeah, 0:00:54.720 --> 0:00:55.800 and I'm very excited. 0:00:56.480 --> 0:00:56.720 Yeah. 0:00:57.040 --> 0:01:00.720 I felt bad for all our UK listeners watching that 0:01:00.760 --> 0:01:03.200 game against Argentina, but all that means is you got 0:01:03.200 --> 0:01:05.120 to just turn your attention to the other football. 0:01:05.360 --> 0:01:08.200 And yes, I've enjoyed I have enjoyed the other football 0:01:08.200 --> 0:01:10.240 for the last few weeks, definitely, But I am an 0:01:10.319 --> 0:01:11.480 NFL guy through and through. 0:01:12.000 --> 0:01:15.039 So yeah, I'm gonna frame this just as a conversation 0:01:15.080 --> 0:01:17.880 about a few teams in terms of their projections that 0:01:17.959 --> 0:01:21.640 caught my eye. Of course, Aaron is the author, the 0:01:21.680 --> 0:01:26.320 creator of DVOA, which is to me like the best 0:01:26.360 --> 0:01:29.679 overall metric, and that's part of the projections that go 0:01:29.760 --> 0:01:31.680 into each and every season. And just we're going to 0:01:31.720 --> 0:01:33.920 start with the teams that stood out to me, and 0:01:34.000 --> 0:01:37.520 let's start with the Houston Texans. I am a huge 0:01:37.520 --> 0:01:40.640 fan of the Houston Texans. I have been considering all 0:01:40.720 --> 0:01:43.800 off season picking them to make and or win the 0:01:43.840 --> 0:01:45.520 Super Bowl, and then. 0:01:45.520 --> 0:01:47.080 I see, you got my back. 0:01:47.240 --> 0:01:48.840 I don't know how if that makes me want to 0:01:48.880 --> 0:01:51.040 take a more or not, because now it won't be 0:01:51.120 --> 0:01:55.520 as like original. You have the Texans as the AFC favorites. 0:01:55.560 --> 0:01:59.040 Your numbers say they have about twice the amount of 0:01:59.040 --> 0:02:03.559 odds to win the Super Bowl as any other AFC team. 0:02:03.720 --> 0:02:06.320 It's a pretty clear top three teams in the NFL 0:02:06.360 --> 0:02:09.239 for you too, in terms of DVOA, it's the Seahawks, Rams, 0:02:09.560 --> 0:02:12.880 and the Texans. What are your numbers and your model 0:02:13.000 --> 0:02:14.880 telling you about this Texans team. 0:02:15.400 --> 0:02:17.720 Yeah, first of all, let me say, even if we're 0:02:17.760 --> 0:02:21.040 a little bit wrong about the Texans. There's enough of 0:02:21.040 --> 0:02:23.320 a gap between them and the rest of the AFC 0:02:23.400 --> 0:02:27.120 that they still look like the best team in the AFC. So, 0:02:27.560 --> 0:02:30.720 first of all, their defense is really good. We know 0:02:30.840 --> 0:02:35.560 that we talk every year about defense being harder to 0:02:35.639 --> 0:02:40.440 predict than offense, but there's still plenty of indicators of 0:02:40.480 --> 0:02:42.639 their defense still being really good. If you were going 0:02:42.680 --> 0:02:45.760 to pick a defense to not regress, it would be 0:02:45.800 --> 0:02:49.880 a defense full of young stars where it's based more 0:02:49.919 --> 0:02:52.120 on the talent than the skip. Like that is what 0:02:52.160 --> 0:02:55.320 you would pick. So obviously, look, there's a chance everyone 0:02:55.360 --> 0:02:58.240 gets injured. That's true of every team. As far as 0:02:58.280 --> 0:03:01.760 their offense goes, here is the s. In the regular 0:03:01.840 --> 0:03:07.720 season last year, c J. Stroud ranked eleventh in passing 0:03:07.800 --> 0:03:13.000 Dvoa eleventh. He was horrible in the playoffs, like there's 0:03:13.000 --> 0:03:15.799 no question about it, Like you can't mince any words 0:03:15.800 --> 0:03:19.080 about that. He also didn't have Nico Collins and Schultz 0:03:19.120 --> 0:03:23.560 for one of those games. If the offensive line is improved, 0:03:23.680 --> 0:03:27.399 they should have an actual running game this year with Montgomery, 0:03:28.280 --> 0:03:31.240 and therefore we think that their offense is above average. 0:03:31.240 --> 0:03:34.040 Now the projections came out with it in the top ten. 0:03:34.760 --> 0:03:37.600 If they don't make the top ten in offense, but 0:03:37.640 --> 0:03:40.680 they're still like fourteenth or fifteenth, that's still the best 0:03:40.680 --> 0:03:43.320 team in the AFC with that defense. Yeah. 0:03:43.360 --> 0:03:45.640 And to be clear, look when I say they have 0:03:45.720 --> 0:03:48.080 double the odds to make or win the Super Bowl 0:03:48.120 --> 0:03:50.920 as any other team in the AFC, it is still 0:03:50.960 --> 0:03:55.480 a very top heavy but deep AFC where you have, 0:03:55.560 --> 0:03:58.480 you know, five six teams with legitimate chances to make it, 0:03:58.520 --> 0:04:00.839 but you do have the Texans decently ahead of the pack. 0:04:00.920 --> 0:04:02.760 I do wonder on the offense because I love seeing 0:04:02.760 --> 0:04:05.240 that projection. I like the idea, you know, from a 0:04:05.280 --> 0:04:07.840 non numbers point of view, that you have continuity at 0:04:07.840 --> 0:04:11.400 the offensive coordinator. Can can they be better on that side? 0:04:11.440 --> 0:04:14.240 Kind of getting used to that offense. The changes on 0:04:14.280 --> 0:04:17.440 the offensive line though, have been so dramatic for a 0:04:17.480 --> 0:04:20.880 second straight season. Some of it when you when you 0:04:21.000 --> 0:04:23.560 it all makes sense to me on paper, But I 0:04:23.600 --> 0:04:27.400 do wonder kind of how the offensive line specifically and 0:04:27.680 --> 0:04:30.960 all those changes. It's veterans, it's rookies, it's a it's 0:04:31.000 --> 0:04:33.320 a little bit of a mix, you know, is thrown 0:04:33.360 --> 0:04:35.320 out to being into a top ten offense. 0:04:35.960 --> 0:04:39.279 Yeah, I mean it's because of everything else. It's because 0:04:39.320 --> 0:04:43.520 of c J. Stroud, I think is good, and I 0:04:43.560 --> 0:04:46.960 think Nico Collins is very good, and Tank Dell should 0:04:46.960 --> 0:04:49.880 be back, and Montgomery improves them in the running game, 0:04:50.440 --> 0:04:52.560 I will fully admit, and this will this will come 0:04:52.640 --> 0:04:55.280 up with some of the other projections. The thing that 0:04:55.320 --> 0:04:59.440 my projection system has the hardest time with is changes 0:04:59.440 --> 0:05:02.800 in the offense line from y That is the hardest 0:05:02.839 --> 0:05:06.400 thing for me to turn into a number and put 0:05:06.440 --> 0:05:11.039 into a projection system. But they made improvements and they 0:05:11.120 --> 0:05:13.840 don't need to have a great offensive line. They need 0:05:13.880 --> 0:05:16.400 to not have one of the five worst offensive lines 0:05:16.440 --> 0:05:16.640 in the. 0:05:16.640 --> 0:05:19.640 League, right and I think there is a route to 0:05:19.680 --> 0:05:22.720 doing that. And the running game is so important. 0:05:22.720 --> 0:05:23.200 And c J. 0:05:23.320 --> 0:05:26.400 Stroud, you know you're speaking my language. I totally saw 0:05:26.400 --> 0:05:28.320 that from him. Last year was an up and down season, 0:05:28.320 --> 0:05:30.760 including the playoffs, were totally down. But I think it 0:05:30.760 --> 0:05:33.920 can be a lot better this year. So there first, 0:05:34.360 --> 0:05:37.560 it's not too surprising. The Bills are next, and I 0:05:37.560 --> 0:05:39.200 should have mentioned at the top of the show, we're 0:05:39.200 --> 0:05:41.880 doing a two part show kind of talking to some 0:05:41.920 --> 0:05:43.760 of the writers from the FDN Almanac. 0:05:43.839 --> 0:05:45.719 Dan Pezuda is going to come up later in the 0:05:45.720 --> 0:05:46.400 show and give. 0:05:46.279 --> 0:05:50.560 Us one number that helps explain the teams that he 0:05:50.680 --> 0:05:52.760 wrote about, and that includes the AFC East, which includes 0:05:52.760 --> 0:05:54.920 the number two favorite in the AFC right now, the Bills. 0:05:55.040 --> 0:05:58.280 But what I thought was interesting is noticing next up 0:05:58.400 --> 0:06:00.720 the Bengals and the raven and I'm going to kind 0:06:00.720 --> 0:06:04.279 of pair them together. Your projection model has the Bengals 0:06:04.320 --> 0:06:06.560 as the third best chance to make the playoffs a 0:06:06.600 --> 0:06:10.039 strong bounce back season nine point eight wins, which for 0:06:10.160 --> 0:06:12.440 your model is pretty high, Like I said, third in 0:06:12.480 --> 0:06:14.960 the league. And then the Ravens, who have the same 0:06:15.760 --> 0:06:19.880 win total projected. But I found it interesting you had 0:06:19.920 --> 0:06:24.360 them sixteenth overall in offense, sixteenth in defense, and sixteenth 0:06:24.440 --> 0:06:26.760 and special teams. They could not be a more average 0:06:26.760 --> 0:06:30.600 team in terms of your projections and even your win total, 0:06:30.800 --> 0:06:31.719 Like wasn't crazy. 0:06:31.760 --> 0:06:34.080 And yet you know, maybe it's the schedule. Is it 0:06:34.120 --> 0:06:35.120 as simple as. 0:06:34.920 --> 0:06:37.560 That that they have that high of a win total, 0:06:37.920 --> 0:06:39.920 the Bengals and Ravens kind of matching up there. 0:06:40.360 --> 0:06:43.320 Yeah, everyone in the AFC North has an easy schedule. 0:06:43.440 --> 0:06:46.520 I believe they played the South divisions, especially the NFC South, 0:06:46.520 --> 0:06:48.760 which still looks like the weakest division in the game, 0:06:49.200 --> 0:06:52.039 So that's a big part for Cincinnati and Baltimore. I 0:06:52.080 --> 0:06:54.920 feel like Baltimore should be higher. Are numbers right? For 0:06:55.000 --> 0:06:58.360 people who know DVOA, The twenty three and twenty four 0:06:58.480 --> 0:07:01.320 Ravens were two of the best teams we've ever measured. 0:07:02.080 --> 0:07:05.920 It feels like the rebound from last year's disappointment should 0:07:05.960 --> 0:07:09.240 be more than this, But it didn't come out with 0:07:09.360 --> 0:07:11.240 as much of a rebound as I thought it was 0:07:11.280 --> 0:07:15.240 gonna come out with, especially on offense. And I definitely 0:07:15.240 --> 0:07:17.720 buy the argument that no offense with a healthy Lamar 0:07:17.880 --> 0:07:21.560 Jackson can be sixteenth. I also would say you can't 0:07:21.600 --> 0:07:23.960 go into the season expecting you're going to get seventeen 0:07:24.000 --> 0:07:27.560 games of a healthy Lamar Jackson. But with the schedule 0:07:27.680 --> 0:07:30.720 being easier for those teams and the Steelers, I think 0:07:30.760 --> 0:07:33.960 not being as good another year older for Aaron Rodgers, 0:07:34.080 --> 0:07:37.040 new coaching staff, etc. I mean, if we thought Mike 0:07:37.080 --> 0:07:39.760 Tomlin had coaching magic, the fact that he's not there 0:07:39.760 --> 0:07:44.280 anymore means there is not coaching magic. And Cleveland is 0:07:44.280 --> 0:07:47.800 the worst team in the league. So I think that 0:07:47.840 --> 0:07:52.960 the Ravens and Cincinnati are both really good playoff playoff opportunities. 0:07:52.560 --> 0:07:53.240 Yeah, I do too. 0:07:53.520 --> 0:07:55.960 I was surprised a little bit, like how easy the 0:07:56.000 --> 0:07:57.640 schedule is that you have the Bengals as the easiest 0:07:57.680 --> 0:07:59.320 schedule in the league, and like I said, the Ravens 0:07:59.360 --> 0:08:02.200 fourth or fifth, And look, your model had the Patriots 0:08:02.240 --> 0:08:04.080 as the easiest scheduling the league going into last year. 0:08:04.240 --> 0:08:05.280 It played out that way. 0:08:05.360 --> 0:08:07.640 The Bills, because they had the same out of division 0:08:07.640 --> 0:08:10.120 schedule for the most part, had the second easiest schedule 0:08:10.120 --> 0:08:12.320 in the league, and it really helped both of those teams. 0:08:12.320 --> 0:08:13.160 These things matter. 0:08:13.440 --> 0:08:15.720 What are you seeing though, in terms of the Bengals, 0:08:15.720 --> 0:08:18.400 who haven't gotten a healthy Joe Burrow where the defense 0:08:18.480 --> 0:08:22.760 was better late last season, But at best, it's average 0:08:22.800 --> 0:08:26.160 talent and average coaching, and I think they would take average, 0:08:26.160 --> 0:08:28.720 but my instinct at this point would be they have 0:08:28.800 --> 0:08:32.200 below average coaching and then the talent with some of 0:08:32.240 --> 0:08:35.200 the imports that they made, might be around average. What 0:08:35.280 --> 0:08:38.000 are you seeing overall with how the Bengals could get 0:08:38.000 --> 0:08:39.480 there to the top of the AFC North. 0:08:39.600 --> 0:08:41.720 It's offense. I mean, we have them projected with the 0:08:41.760 --> 0:08:44.720 top five offense. When you look at how first of all, 0:08:44.800 --> 0:08:47.840 how well they played with Flacco, which was pretty good, 0:08:48.320 --> 0:08:50.920 and then when you look at Burrow hopefully playing for 0:08:51.160 --> 0:08:53.839 the whole season, and the receivers that they have and 0:08:53.920 --> 0:08:57.040 Chase Brown and everything. It looks like a top five offense. 0:08:57.800 --> 0:08:59.720 The defense projects to be a little bit better than 0:08:59.760 --> 0:09:02.679 last year. One of the things I will say is 0:09:02.720 --> 0:09:08.079 that it goes against common sense, but teams that improve 0:09:08.200 --> 0:09:11.440 significantly in the second half of the year, that does 0:09:11.520 --> 0:09:15.080 not necessarily roll over to the next year. There is 0:09:15.280 --> 0:09:18.800 no correlation between how much better you are in the 0:09:18.840 --> 0:09:21.160 second half of the season than the first half of 0:09:21.200 --> 0:09:24.360 the season and how much better you are the following year. 0:09:24.480 --> 0:09:28.480 I know that sounds crazy. I don't think it's explain 0:09:28.600 --> 0:09:31.040 it like we can always this. This guy got better, 0:09:31.080 --> 0:09:35.200 these young players got better, these players learned the scheme, 0:09:35.280 --> 0:09:36.720 and now they're in the second year of the scheme. 0:09:36.800 --> 0:09:38.760 There's usually a good way to explain it. But the 0:09:38.760 --> 0:09:42.680 Bengals defense improving so significantly in the second half last 0:09:42.720 --> 0:09:45.800 year is not necessarily going to carry over to this year. 0:09:46.240 --> 0:09:47.880 But we think their offense is really good. 0:09:48.200 --> 0:09:48.960 It makes sense to me. 0:09:49.080 --> 0:09:51.720 It always annoys me whenever we talk about players who 0:09:51.840 --> 0:09:55.440 end the season poorly and they take that end of 0:09:55.440 --> 0:09:58.160 the season is more important than October or November is like, 0:09:58.160 --> 0:10:00.360 all those games count totally equally. If you're able to 0:10:00.400 --> 0:10:03.040 excel at that high level at the professional level, it 0:10:03.040 --> 0:10:04.800 means you have it in you. You just want to 0:10:04.840 --> 0:10:07.480 see the consistency. It doesn't count anymore just because it's 0:10:07.480 --> 0:10:09.560 at the end, except for when it does and the 0:10:09.559 --> 0:10:11.679 playoffs start. But you know you can't control that. The 0:10:11.679 --> 0:10:14.640 Colts are next on my list of just surprising projections 0:10:14.640 --> 0:10:16.800 when I went through them. You have them as a 0:10:16.920 --> 0:10:20.319 better than fifty percent chance to make the playoffs. 0:10:20.320 --> 0:10:21.040 You have them. 0:10:21.520 --> 0:10:23.760 I wouldn't say it's far ahead of the Jaguars, but 0:10:23.800 --> 0:10:24.960 we're going to get to the Jaguars. 0:10:24.960 --> 0:10:26.360 You have as a mediocre team, but. 0:10:26.280 --> 0:10:29.319 It's it's enough ahead of the Jaguars that I consider 0:10:29.360 --> 0:10:32.400 it significant. And like I said, in your models, the 0:10:32.480 --> 0:10:36.680 Colts are making the playoffs more often than not. I'm 0:10:36.679 --> 0:10:39.360 fascinated by this team because the Jets have that pick, 0:10:39.480 --> 0:10:43.280 and I just think that there is a scenario where 0:10:43.320 --> 0:10:46.120 the Jets end up having two top five picks, or 0:10:46.320 --> 0:10:48.800 they're able to control the draft and this Colt season 0:10:48.840 --> 0:10:51.720 really goes poor. I see them as a high variance team. 0:10:51.760 --> 0:10:55.280 Maybe you guys do too, but ultimately it came out 0:10:55.320 --> 0:10:59.040 on average to pretty good. What about the Colts? Has 0:10:59.240 --> 0:11:01.160 your system relatively bullish? 0:11:01.679 --> 0:11:04.960 Yeah, I mean, I'll admit that subjectively, if you asked 0:11:05.000 --> 0:11:07.920 me my opinion rather than the numbers, I would put 0:11:07.920 --> 0:11:11.480 the Jaguars ahead of them. They were fifth in DVOA 0:11:11.640 --> 0:11:14.599 last year, even with the decline at the end of 0:11:14.640 --> 0:11:18.240 the season playing Rivers and Riley Leonard at quarterback fifth 0:11:18.360 --> 0:11:20.680 they were fifth last year. So to have him go 0:11:20.760 --> 0:11:23.920 from fifth to fourteenth, which is where they're projected, is 0:11:23.960 --> 0:11:27.600 a big drop, and we just don't have them dropping anymore. Now. 0:11:28.160 --> 0:11:31.920 It's possible that I'm sort of over projecting Jones as 0:11:31.920 --> 0:11:35.040 the quarterback because he's not going to be able to 0:11:35.080 --> 0:11:36.760 be as good as he was in the first half 0:11:36.800 --> 0:11:40.600 of last year with his achilles hurt, because the mobility 0:11:40.679 --> 0:11:44.400 is so important for his game, and we also don't 0:11:44.480 --> 0:11:47.200 know whether he'll be back week one. I believe that 0:11:47.320 --> 0:11:50.240 in the simulation that I did, I gave him a 0:11:50.280 --> 0:11:52.520 small chance of being out at the beginning of the year. 0:11:52.520 --> 0:11:57.360 I did the same thing for Patrick Mahomes. But overall, 0:11:57.440 --> 0:12:01.839 this team was really good last year. They really were, 0:12:01.920 --> 0:12:04.720 and like, you don't think that he can do that again. 0:12:04.920 --> 0:12:06.760 But I'm not projecting him to do it again, and 0:12:06.840 --> 0:12:09.160 I'm just projecting him to be better than he was 0:12:09.200 --> 0:12:09.760 in the past. 0:12:10.360 --> 0:12:12.600 Right, And I hate to say it, Aaron, but I 0:12:12.760 --> 0:12:16.280 value your your your model, your system more than your 0:12:16.400 --> 0:12:18.200 own opinions. How does that make you feel, though, that 0:12:18.280 --> 0:12:22.600 like your your like your machine has overtaken like in 0:12:22.679 --> 0:12:24.800 terms of value compared to your brain. 0:12:25.280 --> 0:12:27.400 I mean there are times. Listen, last year, we're gonna 0:12:27.400 --> 0:12:29.360 we'll talk by the end here about a team where 0:12:29.360 --> 0:12:33.160 the vibes are bad. Last year the Dolphins. The Dolphins, 0:12:33.200 --> 0:12:35.320 my numbers said were the second best team in the 0:12:35.320 --> 0:12:38.160 AFC East, And I said, the problem is, I understand 0:12:38.200 --> 0:12:40.679 what the numbers say, but the vibes are so bad 0:12:40.720 --> 0:12:43.800 there right now that I feel like there's no way 0:12:43.800 --> 0:12:46.439 they're going to do this. And on one hand, they 0:12:46.440 --> 0:12:48.520 were worse than the projection. On the other hand, of 0:12:48.559 --> 0:12:50.120 the second half of the year they were not. 0:12:50.679 --> 0:12:52.360 They won seven games in the end, and they are 0:12:52.440 --> 0:12:54.920 kind of better. Yeah, they were kind of fine in 0:12:54.960 --> 0:12:56.679 the end. So the vibes matter. 0:12:56.800 --> 0:13:00.160 I don't believe that there's nothing but numbers out there, right, Like, 0:13:00.280 --> 0:13:04.200 vibes matter, Like these guys are human beings, their attitudes 0:13:04.200 --> 0:13:06.760 matter and all that. But what I try to do 0:13:06.840 --> 0:13:09.280 is point out places that you may not realize that 0:13:09.360 --> 0:13:11.720 certain things are better or worse than you thought they were. 0:13:12.200 --> 0:13:16.520 And look, your DVOA, which I think is also useful 0:13:16.600 --> 0:13:18.880 throughout the course of the season, often is ahead of 0:13:18.960 --> 0:13:22.600 where consensus thinking is. You guys rightly pointed out in 0:13:22.679 --> 0:13:27.280 the book how Seattle more or less went wire to 0:13:27.360 --> 0:13:31.240 wire as the best team in the NFL last year, 0:13:31.280 --> 0:13:34.000 and your numbers were saying as early as like early 0:13:34.040 --> 0:13:37.440 October September, certainly throughout the rest of the season that like, yeah, 0:13:37.440 --> 0:13:40.000 this is probably the best team in the NFL, and 0:13:40.040 --> 0:13:42.280 they end up playing like it throughout the course of 0:13:42.280 --> 0:13:44.160 the season. They're one of the best teams according to 0:13:44.120 --> 0:13:47.000 the DVOA of the last twenty five years. So sometimes 0:13:47.000 --> 0:13:49.360 you got to listen to those numbers, even if you 0:13:49.400 --> 0:13:51.480 know it doesn't totally make sense to you. Let's go 0:13:51.559 --> 0:13:54.040 to some numbers that I would say, surprise me. I 0:13:54.080 --> 0:13:56.439 don't know if they didn't make sense, but I am 0:13:56.440 --> 0:13:58.680 bullish on the Cowboys and the Chargers, for instance, making 0:13:58.720 --> 0:14:02.080 the playoffs this year. They are both projected in your 0:14:02.120 --> 0:14:04.920 system to be totally average. I would say a little 0:14:04.920 --> 0:14:09.920 below average technically seventeenth and eighteenth overall in DVOWAY. 0:14:10.000 --> 0:14:12.880 When you look at those two teams and. 0:14:12.840 --> 0:14:16.000 Your model sees them very middle of the pack, not 0:14:16.120 --> 0:14:19.840 necessarily teams to get it excited about as Super Bowl contenders. 0:14:19.840 --> 0:14:22.160 When I have a feeling they'll be trendy, kind of 0:14:22.240 --> 0:14:25.000 dark horse picks. What are the things that gets in 0:14:25.040 --> 0:14:27.720 their way? Maybe of a better projection, The. 0:14:27.640 --> 0:14:30.560 First thing I'll say is that kind of like Lake 0:14:30.640 --> 0:14:34.360 will be gone, everybody is above average this year because 0:14:34.440 --> 0:14:40.280 the bad teams look so bad. Nineteen teams project to 0:14:40.280 --> 0:14:43.960 be above average, not sixteen, and so we are projecting 0:14:43.960 --> 0:14:46.360 the Chargers and the Cowboys to be above average even 0:14:46.400 --> 0:14:51.480 though they're seventeenth and eighteenth. The Cowboys, their defense last 0:14:51.560 --> 0:14:57.160 year was the third worst defense since nineteen seventy seven 0:14:57.280 --> 0:15:01.160 by DVOA. Of course, it's going to be better this year, 0:15:01.520 --> 0:15:03.280 but I don't know if it can be better than 0:15:03.360 --> 0:15:07.000 like twenty eighth in the league or something. Their offense, 0:15:07.200 --> 0:15:11.800 this surprised me, was only eighth last year. We feel 0:15:11.800 --> 0:15:15.400 like their offense was really awesome, but it was eighth. 0:15:15.800 --> 0:15:18.720 So to go from eighth to like fourteenth, you know, 0:15:18.920 --> 0:15:21.920 I mean subjectively I feel like they're better than fourteenth. 0:15:21.960 --> 0:15:24.760 I feel like they're more like eighth. But on the 0:15:24.800 --> 0:15:27.120 other hand, I mean, the system doesn't know this, But 0:15:27.200 --> 0:15:30.040 do you trust George Pickens to keep his head on 0:15:30.080 --> 0:15:33.640 straight for seventeen games? You know, there's stuff going on 0:15:33.680 --> 0:15:36.840 with that team where you're like, I don't know if 0:15:36.880 --> 0:15:39.480 I trust this. I agree with you that the best 0:15:39.480 --> 0:15:42.320 case scenario, the best case scenario is their defense goes 0:15:42.360 --> 0:15:44.640 all the way back to like average and their offense 0:15:44.720 --> 0:15:47.360 is fantastic and they win the division. I mean, it's 0:15:47.600 --> 0:15:50.880 you can absolutely tell that story of what's possible for 0:15:50.960 --> 0:15:54.560 the Dallas season. But what the projections are saying is 0:15:54.560 --> 0:15:56.680 sort of like slow your role a little bit. On 0:15:56.720 --> 0:15:58.040 how good they were last year. 0:15:58.440 --> 0:16:01.600 Pickens, don't expect the same season out of him. DeVante Williams. 0:16:01.680 --> 0:16:04.760 You're hoping he can stay healthy for an entire season, 0:16:04.840 --> 0:16:07.440 But that's a little bit of a gamble, you know, 0:16:07.520 --> 0:16:10.160 Dak said his injuries. Certainly they survived a lot of 0:16:10.160 --> 0:16:12.560 offensive line injuries, so that could actually be a plus. 0:16:12.600 --> 0:16:15.480 But how good is the offensive line? I think the 0:16:15.640 --> 0:16:19.000 better case for them excel, you know, exceeding these expectations 0:16:19.160 --> 0:16:21.840 or using another you know, precept you guys often talk 0:16:21.880 --> 0:16:24.760 about is how defense can be very inconsistent year to 0:16:24.880 --> 0:16:27.320 year like they and I think that the coaching and 0:16:27.440 --> 0:16:30.200 the defensive front are good enough. You know, they they 0:16:30.280 --> 0:16:33.400 absolutely could be average or slightly better than average with 0:16:33.440 --> 0:16:36.000 a good scheme, and I could see the scheme carrying them. 0:16:36.040 --> 0:16:37.080 What is it about the scheme? 0:16:37.320 --> 0:16:37.440 Uh? 0:16:37.880 --> 0:16:41.320 Or maybe the Chargers season. I was even more surprised 0:16:41.520 --> 0:16:42.400 that you kind of had them. 0:16:42.480 --> 0:16:45.720 Yeah, the Chargers was one that I personally don't quite get. 0:16:46.760 --> 0:16:49.000 We had them too low last year too. I don't 0:16:49.000 --> 0:16:51.440 know what it is about the Chargers that the system 0:16:52.240 --> 0:16:55.760 doesn't like. I know that's weird. I built the system. 0:16:55.800 --> 0:16:59.920 I should everything. Uh. I think there's a definite possibility 0:17:00.200 --> 0:17:03.320 that I'm not accounting enough for the return of Slater 0:17:03.400 --> 0:17:07.879 and Alt. What I will tell you is this, you 0:17:08.040 --> 0:17:12.440 don't know coaches are good. We think coaches are good. 0:17:12.720 --> 0:17:16.399 We think Mike McDaniel is going to dramatically improve the 0:17:16.520 --> 0:17:20.000 Chargers offense, but we don't know because we've only seen 0:17:20.040 --> 0:17:24.639 Mike McDaniel coach one offense. Usually when a coach is 0:17:24.640 --> 0:17:27.200 on the they're on the second team. The sample size 0:17:27.240 --> 0:17:30.600 of their success is one and so you don't know 0:17:30.640 --> 0:17:32.919 whether it was the coach or the players. I know 0:17:33.000 --> 0:17:35.560 that sounds ridiculous to suggest it was the players and 0:17:35.640 --> 0:17:38.480 not the coach in Miami, but you know, the quarterback 0:17:38.520 --> 0:17:40.640 had his problems, but the receivers and the running back 0:17:40.680 --> 0:17:44.720 were pretty good. You don't know whether Mike McDaniel is 0:17:44.720 --> 0:17:47.000 the genius that you think he is. It's not until 0:17:47.040 --> 0:17:51.399 you're Vic Fangio and you've been like eight places that 0:17:51.520 --> 0:17:53.600 you can have enough of a sample size that you 0:17:53.640 --> 0:17:55.320 can be like, yeah, this coach matters. 0:17:55.880 --> 0:18:01.160 Fair The case or McDaniel is that Kyle Sanahan did 0:18:01.200 --> 0:18:04.040 everything but like break labor laws to prevent him from 0:18:04.040 --> 0:18:04.560 ever leaving. 0:18:04.600 --> 0:18:06.680 He thought Mike McDaniel is so valuable. 0:18:06.320 --> 0:18:10.360 That yes, And I mean, listen, we want to talk 0:18:10.359 --> 0:18:13.199 about film study rather than stats. The run designs in 0:18:13.280 --> 0:18:17.040 Miami were fantastic, and what he got out of Tua 0:18:17.680 --> 0:18:22.120 was fantastic given what you know we know about Tua's talents. 0:18:23.200 --> 0:18:26.359 So you know, subjectively, I believe Mike McDaniel is a 0:18:26.400 --> 0:18:29.639 really good offensive coordinator. I do I feel like we 0:18:29.680 --> 0:18:32.119 had the chargers too low this year. We probably have 0:18:32.200 --> 0:18:35.360 the chargers too low. We had them too low last year. 0:18:35.400 --> 0:18:38.679 We probably have them too low again this year, but 0:18:38.840 --> 0:18:41.680 you don't know, new coaches both sides of the ball. 0:18:42.040 --> 0:18:44.320 Usually teams new coaches, you take a little bit of 0:18:44.359 --> 0:18:47.040 a step back. All of the things being equal. Defense 0:18:47.080 --> 0:18:49.480 has to get used to a new coordinator as well, 0:18:50.400 --> 0:18:54.960 so we'll have to see why. You know, I mean, 0:18:55.080 --> 0:18:57.840 it's not Herbert the Herbert. You know, every team has 0:18:57.840 --> 0:19:00.199 a quarterback projection. You start with the quarterback and then 0:19:00.240 --> 0:19:02.880 you put that into the offensive projection. Leberts is good, 0:19:03.200 --> 0:19:06.480 So it's not that I don't know quite why. This 0:19:06.600 --> 0:19:08.240 is the second straight year that we haven't had the 0:19:08.320 --> 0:19:09.040 Chargers higher. 0:19:09.480 --> 0:19:10.959 So I wanted to talk Bears. 0:19:11.040 --> 0:19:13.960 I wasn't surprised that you had them relatively in the 0:19:14.000 --> 0:19:15.800 middle of the league, depending on how you want to 0:19:15.880 --> 0:19:19.280 categorize it, make the playoffs DVOWA, but relatively in that 0:19:19.359 --> 0:19:21.600 middle and third in that division. You're pretty high on 0:19:21.640 --> 0:19:23.760 the Lions, and then you do have the Packers ahead 0:19:23.760 --> 0:19:25.679 of them too. But I just wanted to bring up 0:19:25.720 --> 0:19:29.160 they had the most dramatic split between offense defense, almost 0:19:29.160 --> 0:19:31.359 the most dramatic split you could possibly have, which you 0:19:31.400 --> 0:19:35.360 have them as the second ranked offense and the worst 0:19:35.440 --> 0:19:37.800 defense in the league. The only team that was even 0:19:37.920 --> 0:19:40.199 remotely close to that biggest split. You had the Packers 0:19:40.240 --> 0:19:42.840 as the fourth best offense and the twenty sixth best defense, 0:19:43.080 --> 0:19:46.320 which in my head makes sense. The Bears one is 0:19:46.359 --> 0:19:51.040 even more dramatic. But explain I guess that split and 0:19:51.359 --> 0:19:54.600