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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named best betting podcast or radio

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Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

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Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go. We're throwing in job spect.

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Speaker 3: We're setting it to cash touchtop. We'll see most gamblers

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Speaker 3: when they go to gamble, they go to win.

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Speaker 2: God, that's incredible.

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Speaker 3: Big bank, small bank. I like to make money. All right,

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Speaker 3: this is the ultimate kabine you want to pull.

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Speaker 2: And we are hooked away.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network NFL podcast. I'm your host,

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Speaker 3: Chris Raybon, and this is your week fifteen NFL betting preview.

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Speaker 3: I am joined, as always by my Action Network colleague,

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Speaker 3: the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky. Stucky. What's going on.

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Speaker 3: How's your week? I'm a pretty big lead this year.

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Speaker 3: You're up ten forty two thirty two, so I know

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Speaker 3: you're enjoying that. It was a good week.

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Speaker 4: The Dolphins late field goal kept me from a sweep.

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Speaker 4: And then you know, in twenty twenty, I actually made

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Speaker 4: it to a live NFL game and it happened to

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Speaker 4: be the game of the year, and it happened to

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Speaker 4: be my Ravens winning, and it happened to be a

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Speaker 4: Justin Tucker fifty five yard game winning field goal, and

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Speaker 4: it happened to keep their playoff chances live and the

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Speaker 4: Super Bowl futures that I added. No complaints here, but

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Speaker 4: just like the bad weeks, we forget.

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Speaker 2: And move on to the next week. So ready to

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Speaker 2: get to work here?

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Speaker 3: Yes, sure, and we will hop into our Thursday night

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Speaker 3: football preview. We got some Saturday games which will be

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Speaker 3: included on the Sunday six packs, so we'll be choosing

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Speaker 3: from among those games when we draft our top six sides.

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Speaker 3: But before we kick things off, three very quick reminders.

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Speaker 3: Number One, if you plan to bet the NFL this

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Speaker 3: season and have it now, will be three award winning

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Speaker 3: Action Network app What are you doing? It's got betting

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Speaker 3: schools and noaly, It's just from myself, Stucky and the

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Speaker 3: whole Action Network team in it lets you track every

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Speaker 3: bet that you make.

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Speaker 2: Number Two, if you.

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Speaker 3: Want a chance at a three Vegas vacation, don't forget

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Speaker 3: to enter our free custom weekly DFS contest, the Action

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Speaker 3: Pods Tournament of Champions presented by bet MGM. Fifteen spots

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Speaker 3: in our wild Card Weekend Grand Finale are still up

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Speaker 3: for grabs, so follow the link in this episode description

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Speaker 3: and join for free today and three a quick programming

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Speaker 3: note about the Action Network podcast in the coming weeks.

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Speaker 3: Don't worry, Stucky and I will continue our NFL betting

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Speaker 3: episodes every Thursday until the end of the season, but

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Speaker 3: next Wednesday will also have our annual Christmas NBA betting

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Speaker 3: episode hosted by my guy Matt Moore, with new NBA

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Speaker 3: episodes coming every week starting in January, and finally, between

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Speaker 3: now and New Year's Eve, my guy Stucky Colin Wilson

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Speaker 3: will be delivering their traditional college football bowl game betting

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Speaker 3: previews with four incredible episodes breaking down had about every

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Speaker 3: single bowl game on your holiday gambling calendar. So keep

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Speaker 3: an eye and an ear out for those. Thanks for listening.

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Speaker 2: College basketball.

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Speaker 4: It's coming right after college football, right into that, so

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Speaker 4: keep your keep your eyes and ears out for those

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Speaker 4: as well.

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Speaker 3: We're doing a big to end twenty twenty. Let's get

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Speaker 3: into our Thursday Night Football Week fifteen preview.

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Speaker 1: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 1: Let's bet Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 3: For Week fifteen. We have the Chargers fresh off their

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Speaker 3: first win and I don't know how long going against

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Speaker 3: the Raiders in Vegas. Chargers are plus three a little

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Speaker 3: bit juiced to the Raider side, Raiders minus one to

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Speaker 3: fifteen at BETMGM, the official odds provider of the podcast,

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Speaker 3: a total is fifty three and a half. Stuck thoughts

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Speaker 3: on this game.

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Speaker 4: If you are a big fan of any of the

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Speaker 4: AFC playoff contenders outside of the top two, so you know,

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Speaker 4: the Steelers at eleven or two, they're in. The Chiefs

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Speaker 4: are twelve to one and they're in. But if you

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Speaker 4: are a fan of the Dolphins, the Browns, the Ravens,

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Speaker 4: the Titans, the Colts, you are big, big Chargers fans

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Speaker 4: Tomorrow night.

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Speaker 2: So at the Raiders less game, they drop the seven seven.

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Speaker 4: They play the Dolphins next week, and depending on what

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Speaker 4: happens with the Dolphins this week against the Patriots, will

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Speaker 4: get to that game. If the Raiders lose, that Raiders

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Speaker 4: Dolphins game essentially will be an elimination game. And if

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Speaker 4: you're a fan of an AFC team in contention, you

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Speaker 4: want these teams taking losses. This is what you have

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Speaker 4: to pay attention to. So I think I make this

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Speaker 4: game too and a half, So I do see a

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Speaker 4: bit of value on the Chargers. If you could get

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Speaker 4: a flat three and a half, you know, obviously three

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Speaker 4: is a key number. I would look that way. But really,

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Speaker 4: how I think I would attack this game at three

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Speaker 4: is I think that's just a really good teaser piece.

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Speaker 4: I think this game will be close, just like most

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Speaker 4: Chargers games. The Chargers. If you teased every side, both

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Speaker 4: sides of every Chargers game this year, played thirteen games,

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Speaker 4: and this is including awful teasers like teasing across the zero,

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Speaker 4: you'd be twenty four and two. Those teaser pieces have gone.

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Speaker 4: That's ridiculous. So basically they just got blown out against

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Speaker 4: the Patriots and special teams flukes, and then everything else

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Speaker 4: is under ten points. Depending on what number you got

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Speaker 4: in the Dolphins game, you could be twenty five and one.

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Speaker 4: So it's insane. So I think this is a good

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Speaker 4: teaser piece. We're gonna get to a lot more teaser

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Speaker 4: pieces later in the weekend. But if you want to

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Speaker 4: tease it would say like the Bears, I think that's

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Speaker 4: a good look. But this game, you know, late season

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Speaker 4: division game, Chargers should be.

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Speaker 2: Up for it.

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Speaker 4: It's a chance to try to ruin the Raiders season.

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Speaker 4: The Raiders are kind of regressing here. We know their

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Speaker 4: defense has been so bad. They also have some injuries

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Speaker 4: on the defensive side, and now their offense is just

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Speaker 4: it was playing at an elite level. Really, it was

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Speaker 4: playing at a top five level through the first ten

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Speaker 4: weeks of the season, and it needed to This Raiders team,

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Speaker 4: this Raiders offense needs to play at a top two

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Speaker 4: or three level in order to compete in the AFC

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Speaker 4: to make up for their defense, and it just couldn't

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Speaker 4: maintain that level. Now you don't have rugs, it's gonna

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Speaker 4: hurt your deep shots a little bit. I expect them

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Speaker 4: be able to run the ball in the soft Chargers

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Speaker 4: defense a bit, but this game should be a one

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Speaker 4: possession game. So not much we don't know about these

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Speaker 4: teams already. And yeah, I think it's a It qualifies

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Speaker 4: as a pretty good teaser piece for Thursday Night.

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Speaker 2: Nothing mind blowing here to offer about this game.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'd make it three and a half, So I'm

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Speaker 3: actually on the other side of the number, but I

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Speaker 3: do agree. I think if you're betting straight spread and

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Speaker 3: it's pretty much in line with the with what we have,

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Speaker 3: I mean, you're half a point one way I'm a

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Speaker 3: half a point the other way. But my thing is

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Speaker 3: just Anthony Winn on short prep. It just worries me.

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Speaker 3: Especially it's a good thing, right, yeah, right, what's the

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Speaker 3: other A team also be unprepared. But I do trust

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Speaker 3: rooted in the spot. Some of the Raiders, like absences though,

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Speaker 3: are able to you know, worry some you know abram

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Speaker 3: and and Ournett. You know they're missing guys in their secondary.

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Speaker 3: They're missing you mentioned their deep threat Rugs. Now the Chargers,

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Speaker 3: Denzel Perriman still looks like he's going to miss again.

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Speaker 3: He was, he was playing really well before he went

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Speaker 3: down bo Laga. He's out with a concussion, so that's

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Speaker 3: not ideal. Alan Eckwer Mike Williams top three offensive skilled players,

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Speaker 3: all popped up on the injury report, all limited in

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Speaker 3: practice this week looks more maintenance related. Williams did leave

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Speaker 3: the the last game. But uh could be a could

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Speaker 3: be a kind of a sneaky undergame now with with

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Speaker 3: Rugs out especially, But uh just I don't trust when

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Speaker 3: on short on short prep. But I do think it

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Speaker 3: would be a close game. So that's actually a great

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Speaker 3: That was a great nugget on the teasers like, because

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Speaker 3: I mean, this is is like Rivers over again.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, it's crazy. And one thing I'll say is,

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Speaker 4: you know, the ideal teaser is if you go through three, four, six,

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Speaker 4: and seven, primarily three and seven, and you know three

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Speaker 4: is the number that comes up more frequently than any

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Speaker 4: other final margin in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: But if you're you know, if you think.

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Speaker 4: That the line is below three, then it's basically the

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Speaker 4: same thing, because you're if you tease the six point

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Speaker 4: taser to nine, if it ends nine, it games rarely

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Speaker 4: ever end on nine, But if it ends nine and

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Speaker 4: you tease it up, you would lose anyway, you know,

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Speaker 4: compared to teasing it to plus eight and a half.

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Speaker 4: So for me, especially since I make this under three,

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Speaker 4: it's basically the same thing as teasing up from two

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Speaker 4: and a half. I think that this this should be

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Speaker 4: an entertaining game, and late late game Lynn.

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Speaker 2: Calls, uh, they might not.

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Speaker 4: They shouldn't impact your teaser, but they might end up

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Speaker 4: deciding who wins this game.

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Speaker 3: Absolutely.

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Speaker 2: But by the way, lind did it again? Did you

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Speaker 2: see that that at last?

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Speaker 4: Was that last week with uh, yeah, that's the at

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Speaker 4: the end of her first half against the Falcons ran

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Speaker 4: it without timeouts, and they didn't know if they were

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Speaker 4: to kick in a field goal and they didn't get it.

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Speaker 2: All.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I was feeling good about that, that that Falcons

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Speaker 3: bet until you know, later in the game. But of

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Speaker 3: course the Falcons still stoken, stoking Falcon. But I'm not

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Speaker 3: mad at I Like if I had, if I was

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Speaker 3: forced to choose a side straight up for this game,

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Speaker 3: I'm like, for the rest of the year, I'm just

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Speaker 3: betting against Anthony Winn.

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Speaker 2: That like one principle. But uh yeah, I.

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Speaker 3: Think the teacher is a much better call here. So

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Speaker 3: that was that was great. Those are great numbers. Let's

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Speaker 3: get our pep talk in early because I mentioned it.

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Speaker 3: You know, I'm I would bet against Anthony Winn. I

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Speaker 3: think he's a nice guy. I think you think he's

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Speaker 3: a nice guy. He must be a nice guy, because

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Speaker 3: why else would he still be employed. But it's been

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Speaker 3: a disaster season for the Chargers, some of his calls

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Speaker 3: coming into play in determining that. So we are going

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Speaker 3: to go ahead and debt this week's coaches pep talk

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Speaker 3: to Anthony Win. It comes to us from the twenty

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Speaker 3: and seventeen film Fistfight and again dedicated to our guy,

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Speaker 3: Anthony Winn.

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Speaker 2: Guys.

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Speaker 5: You know, look, you try to be a nice guy

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Speaker 5: right and and treat everyone with respect, but you don't

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Speaker 5: get it.

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Speaker 3: You don't get it back in return.

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Speaker 2: You know why?

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Speaker 3: Because nice guys they finished last. Yeah, and you're gonna say, hey,

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Speaker 3: I'm a.

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Speaker 5: Nice guy, I'm doing okay, and the world is gonna

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Speaker 5: on sip his pants, pull.

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Speaker 3: Them down and take a giant fucking.

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Speaker 2: Shit all over you, guys.

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Speaker 3: I just can't win, guys. I cannot win.

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Speaker 2: Nice guys finish last.

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Speaker 4: Also reminds me of like this is gonna go back

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Speaker 4: to like my high school. Is that Green Dye song?

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Speaker 4: Nice guys finished last? That was a great song. But

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Speaker 4: when you're so funny I was reading the other day,

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Speaker 4: I tweeted this. Twenty eighteen, Matt Naggy edges out Anthony

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Speaker 4: Lynn for NFL Coach of the Year. Pretty funny to

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Speaker 4: look back.

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Speaker 3: Now, Oh man. I mean you see this a lot though,

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Speaker 3: Like you get a coach that'll have like one good

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Speaker 3: year and.

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Speaker 2: Then expectations are low, right, Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I mean wasn't Dann Kring was in a super Bowl

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Speaker 3: at one point? All right, should happens happens. So there's

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Speaker 3: your Thursday night football matchup. The Chargers plus three against

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Speaker 3: the Vegas Raiders. Tease it, tease some Chargers up. That's

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Speaker 3: Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 2: Thursday for action.

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Speaker 1: Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 3: All right for this week again, you have the big

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Speaker 3: lead and you have the first pick.

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Speaker 4: Where you going, Yeah, it's not over yet by any stretch.

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Speaker 4: You just need a couple of big weeks and have

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Speaker 4: me stumble. And this we have all the playoffs too

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Speaker 4: for this contest. So by the way, sixteen Jason Garrett,

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Speaker 4: Oh my god, the yeah, this week I think is

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Speaker 4: the it's the last most just from for me personally,

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Speaker 4: the last most difficult NFL betting week of the year.

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Speaker 4: So like as you go on throughout the year, lines

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Speaker 4: get more efficient, and when lines are more efficient, by

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Speaker 4: the way, teasers are, especially if you're going through key

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Speaker 4: numbers or even more valuable. But lines are getting more

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Speaker 4: efficient as the ear goes on, market's getting more efficient,

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Speaker 4: and I show the way numbers every year it's just

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Speaker 4: harder to find as many big edges and you would say, well,

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Speaker 4: why is it this week not the next two weeks? Well,

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Speaker 4: the next two weeks you have a lot of teams

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Speaker 4: that are going to be a must win situations. We're

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Speaker 4: gonna talk about this a lot and a lot of

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Speaker 4: the time. There is going to be value, and I'll

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Speaker 4: get into this. I'll write up a piece backing the

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Speaker 4: teams that are playing for nothing. So there's certain things

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Speaker 4: I love about Week sixteen and seventeen. So again, this

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Speaker 4: is a pretty efficient market this week for Week fifteen,

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Speaker 4: but I do find I did find a couple bets

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Speaker 4: that I do like.

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Speaker 2: Let's start my original first pick.

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Speaker 4: Two points of the line is moved on me, so

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Speaker 4: I'm going to save that for my first pick of

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Speaker 4: the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 2: I'm going with.

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Speaker 4: The New England Patriots plus two and a half at

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Speaker 4: Ben MGM. I hope this one makes you cringe. I

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Speaker 4: hope most of my NFL bets make you cringe. That's

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Speaker 4: that's usually my my litmus test for it. Okay, I

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Speaker 4: like this because.

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Speaker 3: I love this one. So I mean, this is like

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Speaker 3: your bear's one from last week. It's like I think

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Speaker 3: maybe most people out there might go, oh my god,

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Speaker 3: but remember this is coming from the guy who pretty

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Speaker 3: much made my whole year last week by fading Cam Newton.

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Speaker 3: Like I have never had so much action riding on

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Speaker 3: one player. I just faded I just found every camprop

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Speaker 3: on every side I could and just hit the under.

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Speaker 2: So that was very well executed.

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Speaker 4: It's a great Bilow spot on the Patriots after they

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Speaker 4: were embarrassed.

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Speaker 2: Now they have extra prep for Bill Belichick.

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Speaker 4: And by the way, Bill Belichick off double digit loss

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Speaker 4: nineteen to five against the spread. That's just under eighty

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Speaker 4: percent since two thousand and three in our action Lab database,

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Speaker 4: what DoD you have extra prep for here? Facing a

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Speaker 4: rookie quarterback. Russell Wilson, future Hall of Famer, defeated Bill

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Speaker 4: Belichick as a rookie in twenty twelve. Since then, rookie

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Speaker 4: quarterbacks are zero to eleven against Bill Belichick. And in

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Speaker 4: those games they have total eleven games, seven touchdown passes,

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Speaker 4: seventeen interceptions. They've completed fifty point seven percent of their

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Speaker 4: passes with an average yards throwing mark of one hundred

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Speaker 4: and sixty two yards. They average one hundred and sixty

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Speaker 4: two yards through the air in those games. I mean,

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Speaker 4: it's just been atrocious. And look, some of them have

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Speaker 4: been bad quarterbacks. Some some quarterbacks you're gonna have that

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Speaker 4: are rookies that are are that are poor. You know,

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Speaker 4: Nathan Peterman is in that list. I think Kessler is

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Speaker 4: in that list, but I mean you have Derek Carr,

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Speaker 4: Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, you know, Daniel Jones last year.

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Speaker 4: Herbert this year is a great example of it. Quarterbacks

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Speaker 4: that are that are played well as rookies that just

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Speaker 4: are completely confused, and Belichick will come up with something.

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Speaker 2: And I've talked about this with Herbert. There's you know, there's.

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Speaker 4: Times against zones in college where he's looked really confused,

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Speaker 4: and Belichick took advantage of some of the things that

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Speaker 4: he saw with Herbert. I think he look at his

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Speaker 4: extra prepprier too. He's gonna do that with two. He's

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Speaker 4: gonna throw a bunch of different looks at him. It

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Speaker 4: would not shock me here if Tua has a horrendous,

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Speaker 4: horrendous game. He's looked a little better in the past

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Speaker 4: two weeks, but there's still deficiencies in this passing offense.

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Speaker 4: There's still injuries on the outside, and I think it's

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Speaker 4: just a great matchup on paper for the Patriots. What

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Speaker 4: can the Patriots do? They can run the ball, it's

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Speaker 4: a top ten rushing offense.

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Speaker 2: What can't they do? They can't throw the ball? It's

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Speaker 2: a bottom five passing offense.

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Speaker 4: Well, Miami has the top five passing defense and bottom ten,

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Speaker 4: bottom five rush defense, so their strength is a pass

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Speaker 4: defense doesn't really matter here with the Patriocsse. Patriots can't

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Speaker 4: really throw it on anybody. You can run on Miami,

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Speaker 4: which is what I expect New England to.

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Speaker 2: Do here all day.

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Speaker 4: And the other side of the ball, the Patriots rund

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Speaker 4: He's been a t I mean so bad. It's a

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Speaker 4: rebuilt front seven. They're number twenty eight dev away, but

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Speaker 4: that's not something Miami can really exploit. They're twenty fifth

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Speaker 4: in the NFL and that same measure DBA in rushing offense.

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Speaker 4: Patriots past defense, it was really questionable early on in

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Speaker 4: the air. There's still talent back there. It's been trending up,

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Speaker 4: so I just think the matchup here is great. Last year,

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Speaker 4: Week seventeen, the Dolphins went up as p seventeen point

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Speaker 4: underdogs and spoiled New England's party, cost them a bye

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Speaker 4: with a shocking upset. I think New England returns the

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Speaker 4: face how the tables have turned by the way. I

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Speaker 4: think New England goes down to Miami, returns the favor

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Speaker 4: and plays a little spoiler in potentially ruining.

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Speaker 2: Miami's playoff chances.

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Speaker 4: Obviously they can still lose this game and get in

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Speaker 4: the playoffs, but that will make next weekend's game against

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Speaker 4: the Raiders a lot bigger.

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Speaker 2: So like the spot, like the matchup, and this Miami did.

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Speaker 2: Look it's playing well.

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Speaker 4: There's still been benefiting from so many turnovers. And they're

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Speaker 4: ten and three gets the spread. That's the number one

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Speaker 4: mark in the NFL. But look at last week. They

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Speaker 4: turned the homes over a bunch. Just there's so many

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Speaker 4: fluke turnovers that Dolphins get. There was like a drop

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Speaker 4: Mahomes somehow had like his first inaccurate pass of the year,

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Speaker 4: but it like the tipped off of a receiver's hand

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Speaker 4: and then right to a defender. So their past defense

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Speaker 4: is good and they're gonna bring a lot of pressure,

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Speaker 4: but you can run on them. And this turnover regression

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Speaker 4: is coming from Miami. So try to get the three.

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna wait for it. I already tease them. It's

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Speaker 4: a great teaser piece. Plus two and a half up

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Speaker 4: to eight and a half. I think two of really

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Speaker 4: struggles here a great spot to get Belichick off a

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Speaker 4: loss with extra prep against a rookie quarterback.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I like it.

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Speaker 3: I think this is a classic New England spot, like

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Speaker 3: long rest and going to face a rookie QB. That's perfect.

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Speaker 3: And Cam Newton, I mean, as bad as he was

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Speaker 3: last week, you look at him and this is this

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Speaker 3: has been historically the spot to back him too. He's

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Speaker 3: foward too as an underdog this year, thirty seven and

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Speaker 3: twenty four as an underdog in his career according to

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Speaker 3: our actionalab the database. So this is kind of a

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Speaker 3: it's a bounce back spot for him, it's a bounce

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Speaker 3: back spot for the Pats. I like to call it

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Speaker 3: a lot. Actually this is uh, this is when I

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Speaker 3: kind of like, I expect win this game by periods.

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Speaker 3: So like it.

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Speaker 4: Agreed, agreed first, all the pressure on the rookie quarterback

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Speaker 4: to all the pressure on Miami.

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Speaker 2: New England can still make the playoffs.

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Speaker 4: Technically, they need to win out and they need three

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Speaker 4: of the following five things to happen. Browns lose their

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Speaker 4: final three, it's gonna be tough. Colts are Titans lose out,

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Speaker 4: it's gonna be tough. Dolphins lose at least two of

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Speaker 4: their final three. That could happen with the Patriots win

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Speaker 4: this week, Raiders lose at least one of their final three,

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Speaker 4: that could happen, and then you need the Ravens to

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Speaker 4: lose two of their final three.

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Speaker 2: They have a really easy schedule, so they need three

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Speaker 2: of those five.

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Speaker 4: So there's a chance doing they're not mathematically eliminated, which

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Speaker 4: means I think that they'll play everyone that they need

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Speaker 4: to and at the minimum.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you get the Patriots best effort here.

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Speaker 5: I hope you're enjoying this right Action network podcast. I

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Speaker 5: want to make sure you know about the locked On

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Speaker 5: podcast network locked on as a daily podcast on your

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Speaker 5: favorite team.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to you, Lockdown forty nine ers.

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Speaker 3: You are lockedown of the Dallas marriage Well caome everybody

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Speaker 3: for the Lockdown Lakers podcast Let's Go.

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Speaker 5: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

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00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:18,679
Speaker 5: know your team better than anyone and give you the

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Speaker 5: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

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00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:26,640
Speaker 5: locked on your favorite team. Subscribe to your locked on podcast.

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Speaker 3: For the number two pick in the week fifteen Sunday

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Speaker 3: six pack. My number one pick this week, I am

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Speaker 3: going with a team who's matchup I really love in

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Speaker 3: San Francisco minus three against Dallas coming off a loss,

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Speaker 3: and I didn't expe like my numbers came out pretty

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Speaker 3: high on San Francisco. I didn't expect to be on

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Speaker 3: them as much as I am. But looking into this matchup,

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Speaker 3: this is this is not a matchup that Dallas wants

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Speaker 3: San Francisco. If you look at what they can do,

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Speaker 3: they can play defense, they can cover. Now you know

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Speaker 3: the defense is healthy enough. Fred Warner did practice on

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Speaker 3: a limited basis as we record this on Wednesday, which

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Speaker 3: is big. But you look at Dallas since Dak went

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Speaker 3: down and what has given them problems. It's been teams

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Speaker 3: that can play d It's been They played Cincinnati last week,

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Speaker 3: they put up thirty points, but you look at their

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Speaker 3: other matchups this year. They played Pittsburgh nineteen points. Philly

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00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:33,159
Speaker 3: will throw that out. They only scored nine, but that

438
00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:35,879
Speaker 3: was the Denucia game. And the other Washington game they

439
00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:39,639
Speaker 3: scored three. That was Dalton got hurt, but Minnesota's kind

440
00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:43,800
Speaker 3: of struggling thirty one points, Washington good d sixteen points,

441
00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:48,960
Speaker 3: Baltimore got healthy seventeen points. Now on the other side,

442
00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:53,720
Speaker 3: Dallas before they gave up seven to Cincinnati, thirty four,

443
00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:56,800
Speaker 3: forty one, twenty eight, twenty four, twenty three, twenty five,

444
00:21:56,880 --> 00:21:59,960
Speaker 3: thirty eight, thirty four, forty nine, thirty eight, thirty nine,

445
00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:04,160
Speaker 3: twenty Dallas's defense under Mike Noen has been a disaster.

446
00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:07,879
Speaker 3: San Francisco Kyle Shanahan one of the best teams in

447
00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:12,200
Speaker 3: terms of scheving mismatches in the run game. Their running

448
00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:16,040
Speaker 3: backs are healthy enough right now, Mostert and Wilson look

449
00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:19,440
Speaker 3: like they're gonna play. You still got mckinnie's probably not

450
00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:21,320
Speaker 3: gonna be used, but Coleman, So you got four backs

451
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:24,200
Speaker 3: that you can use. This is the matchup for San Francisco.

452
00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:27,440
Speaker 3: You look at what happened against Washington, who that was

453
00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:29,320
Speaker 3: my money mine dog last week. I was not surprised

454
00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:31,840
Speaker 3: at all that Washington put off that upset. I think

455
00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:33,639
Speaker 3: Washington's a dangerous teams for the rest of the year.

456
00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:37,639
Speaker 3: But Washington had two two defensive touchdowns. Chase Young just

457
00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:40,320
Speaker 3: took over that game. He scores one, and then Cameron Curlew,

458
00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:43,399
Speaker 3: who's been playing really well in the secondary, he scores one.

459
00:22:43,600 --> 00:22:46,280
Speaker 3: So San Francisco really has gave up in that game.

460
00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:50,040
Speaker 3: What was it nine points on offense? They should have

461
00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:51,960
Speaker 3: really gave it hup twelve because there res ultio missfield

462
00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:54,960
Speaker 3: going there. But San Francisco is not gonna let you

463
00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:58,640
Speaker 3: run him out of the building. Offensively, they can run

464
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:02,479
Speaker 3: the ball. Dallas's twenty want to run defense DVOA. Dallas

465
00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:07,200
Speaker 3: has not been scoring against you know, above average defenses,

466
00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:12,040
Speaker 3: and they've been giving up above average point totals to

467
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:16,720
Speaker 3: pretty much every offense. This sided Brandon Allen and Ryan Finley.

468
00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:22,360
Speaker 3: So like San Francisco minus three on the road in Dallas.

469
00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:24,840
Speaker 4: Here, Yeah, I think I disagree here, but I just

470
00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:26,240
Speaker 4: I just don't have a good read on this game.

471
00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:28,760
Speaker 4: My problem is I just I can't figure out sam

472
00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:31,680
Speaker 4: Fred's gonna miss Samuel. He went out early last week.

473
00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:34,520
Speaker 4: I do know that he just he brings another dimension

474
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:36,960
Speaker 4: that at all offense, and you do I believe on

475
00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:39,240
Speaker 4: I are now. I just can't figure out how to

476
00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:42,439
Speaker 4: grade and rate Nick Mullins like, and I've said this

477
00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:45,639
Speaker 4: before on the podcast, sometimes and you have to remove

478
00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:47,840
Speaker 4: his garbage time stats for whatever reason, he's like the

479
00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:51,000
Speaker 4: garbage time goat. But sometimes I think he's the famous

480
00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:52,960
Speaker 4: Jimmy g Sometimes I'm like, wait, is he better?

481
00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:54,600
Speaker 2: And sometimes I'm like he's atrocious.

482
00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:57,119
Speaker 4: So I mean, obviously, how you rate a quarterback is

483
00:23:57,160 --> 00:24:00,240
Speaker 4: gonna really influence where you set a line, and so

484
00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:02,000
Speaker 4: I don't I just don't have a really good feel

485
00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:03,800
Speaker 4: for Nick Mouns. He has been playing well the past

486
00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:05,960
Speaker 4: couple of weeks, but they've been playing some really good defenses.

487
00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:07,520
Speaker 2: To be fair, both of these.

488
00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:11,800
Speaker 4: Teams have played two of the three most difficult schedules

489
00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:14,840
Speaker 4: of opposing defenses, so you know there's some talent on

490
00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:17,080
Speaker 4: these offenses. I don't have any doubt that Sanford will

491
00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:20,360
Speaker 4: be able to run on Dallas. How healthy is San

492
00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:22,959
Speaker 4: Fran's secondary I don't know. Can can the Cowboys make

493
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:26,200
Speaker 4: some plays with their receiver? Sure, maybe it's a sneaky over.

494
00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:29,960
Speaker 4: I have just just around two, but I struggle with Moan,

495
00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:32,199
Speaker 4: so I don't really have a great rebuttal with you.

496
00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:35,640
Speaker 2: From a side perspective, this is a pure stay away

497
00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:35,919
Speaker 2: for me.

498
00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:38,640
Speaker 3: He was so he was terrible against Washington, Like, I'll

499
00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:40,119
Speaker 3: give you that, but this is this is why I

500
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:42,879
Speaker 3: like San Francisco. Based is a matchup play because number

501
00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:46,200
Speaker 3: one Samuel. One of the underrated reasons he's so important

502
00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:49,280
Speaker 3: is in when you face good run defenses. He's an

503
00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:52,280
Speaker 3: extension of the run game in this particular matchup, they

504
00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:54,040
Speaker 3: don't need that. They can they can run with their

505
00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:56,960
Speaker 3: straight up backs. Nobody's better at scheming up like run

506
00:24:57,000 --> 00:25:00,760
Speaker 3: plays against bad run defenses in Shanahan. And then can

507
00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:03,080
Speaker 3: Dallas make plays with their receivers. I mean, if you

508
00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:07,400
Speaker 3: watch Andy Dalton play, I think maybe the last game

509
00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:09,360
Speaker 3: or game and a half, he's been throwing a few

510
00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:13,200
Speaker 3: more downfield, but generally not really a guy that's getting

511
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:15,240
Speaker 3: the ball downfield. He's trying to get it out quick.

512
00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:17,640
Speaker 3: San Francisco is going to be all over that stuff,

513
00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:19,879
Speaker 3: and they can get enough pressure to disrupt them. So

514
00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:22,919
Speaker 3: this is really a matchup play like you like, you know,

515
00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:24,520
Speaker 3: they have to win by more than a field goal here,

516
00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:26,240
Speaker 3: and I think they do it. I think I think

517
00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:30,040
Speaker 3: Dallas is just getting the respect of the three based

518
00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:32,040
Speaker 3: on their bloo out of Cincinnati, which we know is

519
00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:33,880
Speaker 3: like a minor league.

520
00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:34,480
Speaker 2: Team at this point.

521
00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:38,440
Speaker 4: Yep, fair enough, relentless, refusing to give up.

522
00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:39,400
Speaker 2: All Right.

523
00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:44,440
Speaker 4: For my second pick of the Sunday six pack, I'm

524
00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:48,080
Speaker 4: going with a Saturday play. I'm going with the Denver

525
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:52,600
Speaker 4: Broncos plus six. At bet MGM, I found a set

526
00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:55,679
Speaker 4: plus seven minus one fifteen. I would buy it up

527
00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:59,240
Speaker 4: to seven, up to minus one twenty if you can

528
00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:02,920
Speaker 4: find that it's since come down from six and a

529
00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:06,399
Speaker 4: half down to six, which is what I'll take here.

530
00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:10,160
Speaker 4: I do make it just a touch under five. Now, look,

531
00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:13,359
Speaker 4: the Bills have been playing fantastic football.

532
00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:16,840
Speaker 5: Come on, now, the Bills. I'm making it happen now,

533
00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:20,040
Speaker 5: stand up, not come on, assh out.

534
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:23,520
Speaker 4: Over the last six or seven weeks or number one

535
00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:25,679
Speaker 4: in offense success right, their defense is playing at a

536
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:27,600
Speaker 4: top ten level. We talked about last week why their

537
00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 4: defense has been trending in the right direction, and part

538
00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:33,600
Speaker 4: of it has been scheme changes. They've gotten healthier, they

539
00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:35,760
Speaker 4: realign their linebackers. There's just on a lot of things.

540
00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:38,320
Speaker 4: It's a great coaching staff, and their offensive line is

541
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:39,320
Speaker 4: even playing a lot better.

542
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:39,640
Speaker 2: Now.

543
00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:42,840
Speaker 4: This is an offense that only allowed Josh Allen, who

544
00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:45,639
Speaker 4: takes a while to throw the ball relative to an

545
00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:49,320
Speaker 4: average NFL quarterback, to be pressured on thirteen percent.

546
00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:50,920
Speaker 2: Of his dropbacks last week. That's elite.

547
00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:54,840
Speaker 4: Against the Steelers batt Roethlisberger was pressured on over thirty

548
00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:57,879
Speaker 4: five percent of his dropbacks. So every aspect of this

549
00:26:57,920 --> 00:26:59,920
Speaker 4: Bills team is playing at an elite level right now,

550
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:03,640
Speaker 4: So what does that mean in the NFL? And they

551
00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:06,760
Speaker 4: just started on back to back weeks in primetime. They

552
00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:12,040
Speaker 4: come out and they really put it to sant fran

553
00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:17,040
Speaker 4: and they were clearly the better team against Pittsburgh. Everyone

554
00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:19,119
Speaker 4: sees that, So what's gonna happen? And they're going to

555
00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:22,200
Speaker 4: Saturday during a short week, to the altitude of Denver

556
00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:23,240
Speaker 4: to play the Broncos.

557
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:25,280
Speaker 2: Everyone wants to bet the Bills.

558
00:27:25,080 --> 00:27:26,919
Speaker 4: Right, which is why you're probably getting some value here,

559
00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:28,560
Speaker 4: which is why I was able to get some seven. Wise,

560
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:30,760
Speaker 4: I still think six has some value, And on top

561
00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:32,920
Speaker 4: of that, you just have the potential for a little

562
00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:36,320
Speaker 4: bit of an emotional let down, a hangover after these

563
00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:38,520
Speaker 4: two big primetime games for Buffalo.

564
00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:42,600
Speaker 2: It's just a perfect cell high spot on the Bills. Oh.

565
00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:44,359
Speaker 4: I like and I like everything that they're doing, and

566
00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:46,400
Speaker 4: I think that they're going to be a scary out

567
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:47,119
Speaker 4: in the playoffs.

568
00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:49,040
Speaker 2: They probably find a way to win this game.

569
00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:53,440
Speaker 4: I know that Denver's secondary is really bagged up and

570
00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:56,400
Speaker 4: they don't have their two top corners still, but.

571
00:27:56,359 --> 00:27:59,760
Speaker 2: The defense is still very well schooled. They still have

572
00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:00,840
Speaker 2: really good safeties.

573
00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:03,080
Speaker 4: The focus is still on taking away the big play,

574
00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:07,000
Speaker 4: so I think that they can potentially force Josh Allen

575
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:08,320
Speaker 4: to a mistake or two here.

576
00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:11,000
Speaker 2: They can run the ball. Remember it was one of

577
00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:13,240
Speaker 2: the things I said about Pittsburg Pittsburgh last week.

578
00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:15,360
Speaker 4: They can't run the Pittsburgh can't run it, and that's

579
00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:19,359
Speaker 4: really how you have to attack this Buffalo defense. So

580
00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:23,760
Speaker 4: I know the Broncos have some concerning issue injuries to

581
00:28:23,840 --> 00:28:26,760
Speaker 4: keep an eye on, but this is just a great

582
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 4: sell high spot on Buffalo. I'll take the Broncos as

583
00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:34,600
Speaker 4: a home dog plus six at at MGM. I would

584
00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:38,280
Speaker 4: take anything at six or above. Ideally, you obviously won

585
00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 4: seven here, so monitor the market. Like I said, I

586
00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:42,920
Speaker 4: would buy it up to minus one twenty.

587
00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:44,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have it at five and a half, so

588
00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:46,480
Speaker 3: a little bit of value that five and a half

589
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:49,479
Speaker 3: is really just coming from I do think Denver, especially

590
00:28:49,520 --> 00:28:51,640
Speaker 3: this time of year, has a little more of a

591
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:54,960
Speaker 3: home fielder vanage than most teams, which is pretty much

592
00:28:55,080 --> 00:28:57,760
Speaker 3: some semblance of one because there really hasn't been one

593
00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:01,960
Speaker 3: this season as far as home teams. I think I

594
00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 3: really do like what Buffalo was doing. I think they're

595
00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:06,160
Speaker 3: one of the best coach teams in the league. I

596
00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:08,719
Speaker 3: think that this match will be a lot tougher or

597
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 3: a little bit tougher for Denver if John Brown was

598
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:13,920
Speaker 3: back healthy. Gabe Davis has still played well for a

599
00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:16,640
Speaker 3: rookie in that spot. But I mean Buffalo is doing

600
00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:19,360
Speaker 3: everything right. They're like passing more, even though they have

601
00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:21,840
Speaker 3: quarterback that most people, you know, the first couple years

602
00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:24,200
Speaker 3: they kind of spent hiding. They're not afraid to pass

603
00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:27,400
Speaker 3: the ball. I think you mentioned it. They're using aj

604
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:31,440
Speaker 3: Klein a lot more smartly now with with Milano back,

605
00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:34,880
Speaker 3: and they're not afraid to. Like bench veterans like Josh Norman,

606
00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:37,840
Speaker 3: he hasn't really played much, so I like everything they're doing.

607
00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:40,160
Speaker 3: I don't see quite as much value, but I do

608
00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:42,760
Speaker 3: kind of get it. I was kind of a little

609
00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:45,920
Speaker 3: bit surprised Denver beat up on Carolina Lane beat up

610
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:47,920
Speaker 3: on them, but surprised they put up that many points

611
00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:50,440
Speaker 3: on him last week. I think this game actually could

612
00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:53,200
Speaker 3: be a sneaky over too, because you look at what

613
00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:56,560
Speaker 3: buff just how Buffalo's playing. They're passing so much. Denver

614
00:29:56,640 --> 00:29:59,240
Speaker 3: with the weaknesses on the back end, but Denver, you know,

615
00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:01,240
Speaker 3: they can kind of stay ahead of the chains as well,

616
00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:04,479
Speaker 3: or at least you know, in it with with Gordon

617
00:30:04,520 --> 00:30:07,160
Speaker 3: and their rookies are coming together. Locke is making some strides.

618
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:11,120
Speaker 3: So don't hate it, but definitely see definitely see the

619
00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:12,800
Speaker 3: appeal for a letdown spot here.

620
00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:15,920
Speaker 4: Question on Josh Allen, just curiously your thoughts on it

621
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:18,960
Speaker 4: at it's kind of been a widely accepted belief that

622
00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:21,880
Speaker 4: you can't teach accuracy, right for the most part.

623
00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:24,240
Speaker 2: You can teach a lot of things.

624
00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:28,680
Speaker 4: You can't teach speed, and you can't teach just inherent accuracy.

625
00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:30,000
Speaker 4: It's one of the things that people say, all right,

626
00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:33,520
Speaker 4: is that the ceiling of Lamar Jackson, that's what is

627
00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:35,520
Speaker 4: that what's going to hold him back after teams have adjusted.

628
00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:37,720
Speaker 4: But the same thing was said about Josh Allen, and

629
00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:40,120
Speaker 4: he's obviously a lot more accurate than he was. And

630
00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:42,520
Speaker 4: the argument for that, maybe he's an exception to the

631
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:45,920
Speaker 4: rule is he started playing football late. He played it

632
00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:49,400
Speaker 4: in a college where you know, they were a running

633
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:51,720
Speaker 4: team Wyoming in like horrible weather, and then he wasn't

634
00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:54,600
Speaker 4: like throwing them all thirty forty times. So maybe he's

635
00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:58,160
Speaker 4: just you know, was on a track that was behind

636
00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:00,600
Speaker 4: you know, as far as timing is concerned adult track

637
00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:03,600
Speaker 4: compared to some of these other quarterbacks. Are you are

638
00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:06,040
Speaker 4: you now a believer in Josh Allen or do you

639
00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:07,320
Speaker 4: still have some doubts.

640
00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:10,760
Speaker 3: I am a believer in Josh Allen. I actually this

641
00:31:10,840 --> 00:31:12,600
Speaker 3: is a good question because this is something I brought

642
00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:15,720
Speaker 3: up before the season, and I think that his accuracy

643
00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:19,080
Speaker 3: issues coming out of college were real, but I think

644
00:31:19,160 --> 00:31:21,840
Speaker 3: in once he got to the league, I think they

645
00:31:21,840 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 3: were overstated because and I kind of pulled the splits

646
00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:29,040
Speaker 3: before the season, but there were two things that really

647
00:31:29,080 --> 00:31:31,360
Speaker 3: stuck out when you looked at Josh Allen. Number one

648
00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:35,920
Speaker 3: was his numbers. Throwing to Zay Jones, who during his

649
00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:38,040
Speaker 3: time in Buffalo was essentially the worst wide receiver in

650
00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:40,400
Speaker 3: the league. But Josh Allen throwing to Zay Jones, who

651
00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:42,760
Speaker 3: was his most targeted receiver for a good chunk of

652
00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:46,200
Speaker 3: his career, was under fifty percent completions. It was like,

653
00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:48,960
Speaker 3: you know, four yards in attempt. I mean it was bad.

654
00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:53,280
Speaker 3: And then last season he has John Brown, you know,

655
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:56,040
Speaker 3: to throw deep to, but the rest of his deep

656
00:31:56,080 --> 00:32:02,960
Speaker 3: targets were Colby's Lee, Rob Foster, Zaiah McKenzie just you know,

657
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:05,800
Speaker 3: got you know, kind of replacement level players that you

658
00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:07,800
Speaker 3: really shouldn't be targeting deep, and he was something I

659
00:32:07,800 --> 00:32:09,880
Speaker 3: think I believe it was like three for twenty seven

660
00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:14,240
Speaker 3: targeting non John Brown receivers twenty yards or more down

661
00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:18,160
Speaker 3: the field. Well, now you gave him Davis, you gave

662
00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:21,160
Speaker 3: him Stefan Diggs, who last year was the best deep

663
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:24,360
Speaker 3: ball receiver in the game, and you're seeing an improvement

664
00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:26,800
Speaker 3: in accuracy. I don't think that's an accident. You look

665
00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:29,600
Speaker 3: at his deep adjusted completion rate this year and he's

666
00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:32,880
Speaker 3: fourteenth in the league. So you know, I think that's

667
00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:35,200
Speaker 3: that was responsible for a lot of the jump, and

668
00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:38,640
Speaker 3: Dabo yoc has done a great job kind of scheming

669
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:41,480
Speaker 3: scheming things for him, but I think he was just

670
00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:45,040
Speaker 3: a little act more accurate this whole time, and he

671
00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:49,080
Speaker 3: was just really kind of set back by like his

672
00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:51,360
Speaker 3: receiving core. Remember it wasn't I think they even had

673
00:32:51,640 --> 00:32:54,240
Speaker 3: Kelvin Benjamin when he first his first year in the week,

674
00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:58,720
Speaker 3: they Charles Clay, Jyson Kroum. I mean, they had just

675
00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:01,360
Speaker 3: a bottom of the barrel receiver core for his first

676
00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:04,880
Speaker 3: like year year and change in Buffalo. Then they got Besley,

677
00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:08,280
Speaker 3: you know, Beasley and Brown and then digs in Davis

678
00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:09,959
Speaker 3: and I think that just made a huge difference.

679
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:15,640
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696
00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:07,280
Speaker 6: And now back to the show.

697
00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:13,000
Speaker 3: All right. For my number two pick and the number

698
00:34:13,000 --> 00:34:17,200
Speaker 3: four overall pick the week fifteen Sunday six pack, I

699
00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:20,800
Speaker 3: am going with the Philadelphia Eagles plus six and a

700
00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:26,840
Speaker 3: half at the Arizona Cardinals. Jalen Hurts. You know, it's

701
00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:30,279
Speaker 3: it's it's not perfect. He's gonna run, he's gonna scramble out.

702
00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:33,719
Speaker 3: I believe a scrambling percentage is on sixteen per zero

703
00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:38,600
Speaker 3: point seven percent of dropbacks. But clearly it's working more

704
00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:42,280
Speaker 3: than Carson Wentz, who you know, just kind of skittish

705
00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:44,520
Speaker 3: in the pocket. Just it just didn't work for him,

706
00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:46,640
Speaker 3: and he doesn't have the kind of play making ability

707
00:34:46,640 --> 00:34:49,520
Speaker 3: with his legs, you know, for the deficion to match

708
00:34:49,520 --> 00:34:53,080
Speaker 3: the deficiencies of the Seagles offense, which is the receivers

709
00:34:53,080 --> 00:34:55,600
Speaker 3: aren't going to get open that well. So I was

710
00:34:55,640 --> 00:34:57,920
Speaker 3: impressed with Philly in that first game against New Warrens.

711
00:34:57,960 --> 00:35:03,120
Speaker 3: Remember New Orleans is number two in defensive DVO eight.

712
00:35:03,680 --> 00:35:06,640
Speaker 3: This is a an excellent defense versus both the run

713
00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:09,520
Speaker 3: and the pass. Their top five. Philadelphia put up four

714
00:35:09,600 --> 00:35:12,040
Speaker 3: hundred and thirteen yards of total offense. That was their

715
00:35:12,080 --> 00:35:16,600
Speaker 3: second most total yards of the season. So I just

716
00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:20,120
Speaker 3: like that Philadelphia, and you know, now you have a

717
00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:22,879
Speaker 3: game game of film unhurt, so probably not as huge

718
00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:26,080
Speaker 3: of an advantage. But Arizona's defense is not nearly on

719
00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:31,000
Speaker 3: the caliber of New Orleans. Arizona's kind of your we

720
00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:36,080
Speaker 3: averaged slightly above average team in all facets generally, but

721
00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:38,920
Speaker 3: so getting six and a half here, I love it.

722
00:35:39,120 --> 00:35:41,440
Speaker 3: And then for a game I think Philly can win. Now,

723
00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:45,200
Speaker 3: the one thing that's concerning is Philadelphia, you know, really

724
00:35:45,239 --> 00:35:49,080
Speaker 3: banged up no secondary right in the secondary, and we'll

725
00:35:49,120 --> 00:35:53,279
Speaker 3: see about Slay. That would obviously be huge. So with

726
00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:56,240
Speaker 3: if Slay is out, I make this line about five

727
00:35:56,400 --> 00:36:01,760
Speaker 3: point eight, and if he's in, I have it closer

728
00:36:01,800 --> 00:36:05,560
Speaker 3: to five point two five point three, So still have

729
00:36:05,680 --> 00:36:07,920
Speaker 3: it under the number, but obviously we would like it

730
00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:10,120
Speaker 3: a lot more. That's why I picked it first in

731
00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:11,960
Speaker 3: our draft, but I ended up going with San Francisco

732
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:14,200
Speaker 3: because I really love the matchup for our first pick.

733
00:36:14,520 --> 00:36:17,360
Speaker 3: But still either way, this is a game that Philly

734
00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:20,360
Speaker 3: can absolutely win. Uh, you know, beating New Orleans, I

735
00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:22,160
Speaker 3: think you know, even people are going to look say

736
00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:25,600
Speaker 3: it's Taysom, but forget Taysom, forget the New Orleans offense.

737
00:36:25,640 --> 00:36:28,000
Speaker 3: They scored twenty one points for Philly to put up,

738
00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:30,600
Speaker 3: you know, four hundred and thirteen yards of offense. Miles

739
00:36:30,680 --> 00:36:33,279
Speaker 3: Sanders is going to benefit. We know he has big playability.

740
00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:37,120
Speaker 3: He's going to benefit from that, you know, dual threat

741
00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:39,520
Speaker 3: at quarterback, and that's what you need when you have

742
00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:41,840
Speaker 3: a running back that you know. He'll have his slow games.

743
00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:43,520
Speaker 3: We kind of were like, what's going on with him

744
00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:46,520
Speaker 3: giving us nothing with Wentz, but we've seen him bust

745
00:36:46,520 --> 00:36:49,600
Speaker 3: big plays, you know, pretty consistently for most of the year.

746
00:36:50,080 --> 00:36:52,160
Speaker 3: And that was back and I think that's no surprise

747
00:36:52,200 --> 00:36:55,239
Speaker 3: that it was with with Hurts. And you know, the

748
00:36:55,239 --> 00:36:58,920
Speaker 3: Cardinals they're again they're like this, they're I think they

749
00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:00,920
Speaker 3: now at this point they're kind of true to what

750
00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:03,640
Speaker 3: their record is. They're seven and six their league average,

751
00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:06,200
Speaker 3: they're kind of right about league average, a little bit above.

752
00:37:06,480 --> 00:37:08,960
Speaker 3: Kier Murray's gonna make some plays with his legs. Jalen

753
00:37:09,040 --> 00:37:11,919
Speaker 3: hurtsk is gonna match it. Their defense, They're gonna bwitz,

754
00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:14,279
Speaker 3: They're gonna get some pressure. Philly's gonna bitz. Philly's gonna

755
00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:15,880
Speaker 3: I mean, Philly's not gonna Wis, but Philly's gonna get

756
00:37:15,920 --> 00:37:18,319
Speaker 3: some pressure. They're both pretty higher pressure in pressure rate.

757
00:37:19,080 --> 00:37:21,480
Speaker 3: I just think it's a much more even rematch game.

758
00:37:22,120 --> 00:37:25,960
Speaker 3: Uh then close to you know, getting the touchdown here.

759
00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:27,359
Speaker 3: So going with Philly plus six.

760
00:37:27,360 --> 00:37:32,799
Speaker 4: Five, Yeah, I struggle this was gonna be one of

761
00:37:32,800 --> 00:37:33,320
Speaker 4: my picks.

762
00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:36,120
Speaker 2: I'm just struggling adjusting the Eagles. I'm struggling to be

763
00:37:36,160 --> 00:37:37,880
Speaker 2: two things in this game. They're one is adjusting Eagles.

764
00:37:37,640 --> 00:37:39,880
Speaker 4: On the surface after adjusting just for last week's results,

765
00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:42,320
Speaker 4: I made this game Arizona minus four and a half.

766
00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:46,600
Speaker 4: And but then you have all these second urges. I

767
00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:49,799
Speaker 4: mean you have McCleod, their safety is out, he's done. Yeah,

768
00:37:49,800 --> 00:37:53,000
Speaker 4: one of their starting yeah, he's he's out. VNTI Maddox

769
00:37:53,120 --> 00:37:55,880
Speaker 4: is out. And now you have Sleigh with a concussion,

770
00:37:55,920 --> 00:37:58,160
Speaker 4: he's possible out, which means, of all that happens, you're

771
00:37:58,160 --> 00:38:01,600
Speaker 4: moving Jalen Mills, who was at safety to corner, which

772
00:38:01,640 --> 00:38:04,160
Speaker 4: means that from you know, two weeks ago, your four

773
00:38:04,680 --> 00:38:07,160
Speaker 4: starting defensive backs, you have zero of them in.

774
00:38:07,360 --> 00:38:08,880
Speaker 2: Their where they were before.

775
00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:12,120
Speaker 4: Because even when in nickel and dime packages, which you're

776
00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:14,840
Speaker 4: gonna have to play a lot against Arizona, Robie Coleman

777
00:38:14,920 --> 00:38:16,560
Speaker 4: is then playing one of the other outside slots.

778
00:38:16,560 --> 00:38:18,120
Speaker 2: And he's usually playing slot.

779
00:38:18,160 --> 00:38:20,080
Speaker 4: He probably will still play slot in Nickel and Don

780
00:38:20,120 --> 00:38:23,000
Speaker 4: Stotts and then you're Kevin Seymour come in. Your safeties

781
00:38:23,000 --> 00:38:25,800
Speaker 4: will be Marcus Epps and a rookie Kevon Wallace.

782
00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:26,960
Speaker 2: Like it's dicey.

783
00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:30,400
Speaker 4: So the question then I have is, you know the Cardinals.

784
00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:34,600
Speaker 4: The Cardinals are very effective at running the ball because

785
00:38:34,600 --> 00:38:36,319
Speaker 4: they spread you out. With the Eagles, that's still their

786
00:38:36,360 --> 00:38:41,560
Speaker 4: strength their run defense. Can Kyler Murray take advantage of

787
00:38:41,600 --> 00:38:45,560
Speaker 4: this Eagles defense throwing the ball against the depleted secondary

788
00:38:45,640 --> 00:38:48,400
Speaker 4: and running it. The Eagles have really struggled with mobile

789
00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:52,280
Speaker 4: quarterbacks this year. Lamar Jackson, Daniel Jones. If you isolate

790
00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:54,440
Speaker 4: running backs, Eagles are one of the best run defenses

791
00:38:54,520 --> 00:38:57,840
Speaker 4: in the NFL. Mobile quarterbacks have really given them trouble.

792
00:38:58,000 --> 00:38:59,719
Speaker 4: I just don't know. I can't figure out if Kyler

793
00:38:59,800 --> 00:39:02,279
Speaker 4: Murray fully healthy. He just hasn't looked right over the

794
00:39:02,320 --> 00:39:05,400
Speaker 4: past month. He's going out of bounds more on runs,

795
00:39:05,480 --> 00:39:08,239
Speaker 4: He's not taking as many shots. The numbers just aren't there.

796
00:39:08,280 --> 00:39:10,560
Speaker 4: It doesn't look as comfortable. But it seems to me

797
00:39:10,600 --> 00:39:12,160
Speaker 4: and I keep reading that it's an injury that could

798
00:39:12,160 --> 00:39:14,359
Speaker 4: just go away and all of a sudden, he'll be fine,

799
00:39:14,520 --> 00:39:16,200
Speaker 4: But I thought that for the last couple of weeks,

800
00:39:16,560 --> 00:39:18,000
Speaker 4: and he was fine last week, but it just it

801
00:39:18,000 --> 00:39:20,120
Speaker 4: doesn't look like himself. So those are the kind of

802
00:39:20,280 --> 00:39:24,000
Speaker 4: things that are I'm really struggling with here. So ideally

803
00:39:24,560 --> 00:39:27,600
Speaker 4: Slay plays and I think I would play the Egles

804
00:39:27,640 --> 00:39:30,040
Speaker 4: six and a half if he doesn't, or it's questionable.

805
00:39:30,120 --> 00:39:32,239
Speaker 2: I think I would need seven here.

806
00:39:32,320 --> 00:39:35,560
Speaker 4: So I don't disagree with you, but a couple of

807
00:39:35,600 --> 00:39:37,719
Speaker 4: difficult things to get get a hold of her. In

808
00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:41,600
Speaker 4: regard to the Eagles secondary and Kyler Murray's health.

809
00:39:41,600 --> 00:39:45,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, so, and I like the secondary is definitely a worry,

810
00:39:45,920 --> 00:39:48,000
Speaker 3: but it's kind of one of those worries that's a

811
00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:51,239
Speaker 3: little more like it looks a little more alarming than

812
00:39:51,280 --> 00:39:53,000
Speaker 3: it is. Then it's going to affect the line when

813
00:39:53,080 --> 00:39:57,560
Speaker 3: you actually look at the numbers of even Slay. I mean,

814
00:39:58,600 --> 00:40:02,840
Speaker 3: Slay is allowing a seventy six percent catch rate on

815
00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:06,440
Speaker 3: the year he's been you know, he's been dusted as

816
00:40:06,480 --> 00:40:09,440
Speaker 3: it as it is. You know, it's not like he's

817
00:40:09,600 --> 00:40:11,479
Speaker 3: out here like he had a couple of good games

818
00:40:11,480 --> 00:40:13,760
Speaker 3: earlier in the year, but he's been struggling and coverage

819
00:40:14,280 --> 00:40:17,120
Speaker 3: a ton and then you look at Maddox, he's allowing

820
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:20,239
Speaker 3: one o two passer rating, he's got no picks, he's

821
00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:22,919
Speaker 3: given up a couple of scores. Like the drop off

822
00:40:23,320 --> 00:40:25,600
Speaker 3: at this point, I mean, the secondary is gonna be

823
00:40:25,640 --> 00:40:29,520
Speaker 3: shaky regardless. Now, the thing is about Schwartz and that

824
00:40:29,680 --> 00:40:33,080
Speaker 3: defense is they'll play some man, but they they're not

825
00:40:33,120 --> 00:40:36,839
Speaker 3: necessarily gonna send a lot of extra blitzers, so they

826
00:40:36,920 --> 00:40:39,480
Speaker 3: will still drop back guys in the coverage, which helps

827
00:40:39,480 --> 00:40:41,719
Speaker 3: them mitigate some of that a little bit. But none

828
00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:44,440
Speaker 3: of their secondary has really been playing outside McLeod. McLoud

829
00:40:44,480 --> 00:40:47,359
Speaker 3: is I think the biggest drop off, and that's why

830
00:40:47,320 --> 00:40:50,640
Speaker 3: I yet I would have it under five if McLeod

831
00:40:50,800 --> 00:40:53,040
Speaker 3: was in there. That that that's the biggest loss. But

832
00:40:53,360 --> 00:40:55,800
Speaker 3: I still think it's too much, and I still think

833
00:40:55,920 --> 00:40:58,400
Speaker 3: the Eagles, with you know, have kind of the benefit

834
00:40:58,440 --> 00:41:00,880
Speaker 3: of there's only one game now of film here on

835
00:41:01,480 --> 00:41:05,359
Speaker 3: Hurts and Kaysom Hill's mobile quarterback, so you know, the

836
00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:07,400
Speaker 3: recent results are somewhat promising.

837
00:41:07,680 --> 00:41:09,719
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, he'll havan, He'll still he didn't run

838
00:41:09,719 --> 00:41:11,520
Speaker 4: as much as I thought he should have. He's a

839
00:41:11,520 --> 00:41:13,279
Speaker 4: by you tight end. He should run the ball a

840
00:41:13,320 --> 00:41:15,600
Speaker 4: lot more than throw. But yeah, I mean Hurts looked,

841
00:41:15,680 --> 00:41:18,959
Speaker 4: Hurts looked. Okay, it was a very simplified offense. They

842
00:41:19,080 --> 00:41:21,200
Speaker 4: just gave him really easy. It seems like he's still

843
00:41:21,200 --> 00:41:23,720
Speaker 4: a one read quarterback and they didn't have any drops.

844
00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:26,480
Speaker 4: Their offensive line played really well against the Saints defense,

845
00:41:26,840 --> 00:41:29,319
Speaker 4: so it was kind of like a perfect storm for Hurts.

846
00:41:29,360 --> 00:41:32,480
Speaker 4: But his mobility gives them. But bottom line, you couldn't

847
00:41:32,520 --> 00:41:34,600
Speaker 4: have played worse than Wentz. Like I had the Eagles upgrade,

848
00:41:34,600 --> 00:41:36,080
Speaker 4: it's when Wentz was in there, which is crazy for

849
00:41:36,120 --> 00:41:38,279
Speaker 4: me because it's a rookie quarterback and not one that

850
00:41:38,360 --> 00:41:39,960
Speaker 4: like went in the top ten that was supposed to

851
00:41:40,000 --> 00:41:42,759
Speaker 4: just come in and shred right away. But his mobility

852
00:41:42,760 --> 00:41:45,080
Speaker 4: gives them another added dimension.

853
00:41:44,719 --> 00:41:46,440
Speaker 2: To the offense. But that the point I'll bring up

854
00:41:46,440 --> 00:41:47,080
Speaker 2: with their secondary.

855
00:41:47,120 --> 00:41:48,799
Speaker 4: And I'm not even the biggest Starius sliph fin just

856
00:41:48,800 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 4: because I'm hardly a fan of any cornerback once they

857
00:41:51,120 --> 00:41:53,400
Speaker 4: turned over the age of thirty. Maybe call it agism

858
00:41:53,520 --> 00:41:56,520
Speaker 4: or whatever, but that's uh, you know that so especially

859
00:41:56,640 --> 00:41:59,560
Speaker 4: one that has to lock down opposing number ones. But

860
00:41:59,640 --> 00:42:02,200
Speaker 4: it's not so much, you know, And this is true

861
00:42:02,200 --> 00:42:04,799
Speaker 4: with a lot of positions in the NFL when handicapping,

862
00:42:04,840 --> 00:42:07,520
Speaker 4: and it's very difficult to do. I don't think anyone

863
00:42:07,520 --> 00:42:09,840
Speaker 4: has the right answer. It's more art and science is

864
00:42:09,840 --> 00:42:11,760
Speaker 4: it's when there's a cluster of injuries. So you're talking

865
00:42:11,800 --> 00:42:17,600
Speaker 4: maybe you have you know, four three starters out and

866
00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:19,719
Speaker 4: the other starter is moving to another position, and then

867
00:42:19,760 --> 00:42:21,319
Speaker 4: you have rookies in there, and then you have your

868
00:42:21,360 --> 00:42:24,279
Speaker 4: slot moving outside. So like that is trying to figure

869
00:42:24,320 --> 00:42:26,920
Speaker 4: out how much that is worth. Mainly, it's not even

870
00:42:26,960 --> 00:42:29,480
Speaker 4: the talent drop off at this point, this late in

871
00:42:29,480 --> 00:42:33,200
Speaker 4: the season. It's the communication, like is how much is

872
00:42:33,200 --> 00:42:35,520
Speaker 4: it going to lead to some busted coverages because people

873
00:42:35,560 --> 00:42:37,120
Speaker 4: don't know where they're at and how much do you

874
00:42:37,120 --> 00:42:38,560
Speaker 4: have to simplify the defense?

875
00:42:38,640 --> 00:42:40,120
Speaker 2: And because I mean, you.

876
00:42:40,120 --> 00:42:42,239
Speaker 4: Have a safety doesn't know where they're supposed to be

877
00:42:42,239 --> 00:42:43,799
Speaker 4: in a corner, lets a receiver go and it's an

878
00:42:43,840 --> 00:42:46,080
Speaker 4: eightyr touchdown and boom, it's a different game right from

879
00:42:46,120 --> 00:42:48,200
Speaker 4: the jump. So that's just a difficult thing for me

880
00:42:48,239 --> 00:42:49,960
Speaker 4: to figure out here. But I don't hate to play

881
00:42:49,960 --> 00:42:51,239
Speaker 4: at all. I think that's where the value is.

882
00:42:51,360 --> 00:42:53,319
Speaker 3: You know, the best thing about the Cardinals is in

883
00:42:53,360 --> 00:42:58,120
Speaker 3: this spot there, so they're making Andy Isabella healthy. Scratch,

884
00:42:58,200 --> 00:43:00,440
Speaker 3: it looks like they don't really have a that can

885
00:43:00,480 --> 00:43:04,479
Speaker 3: score an eighty hour a touchdown. You know, Hopkins, that's

886
00:43:04,640 --> 00:43:07,120
Speaker 3: I mean, he's the closest thing to add so but yeah, no,

887
00:43:07,200 --> 00:43:09,400
Speaker 3: I totally agree. It's really tough. I mean, that was

888
00:43:09,440 --> 00:43:11,560
Speaker 3: the issue at San Francisco earlier in the year and

889
00:43:11,600 --> 00:43:13,800
Speaker 3: that and I think it was against the Giants and

890
00:43:13,880 --> 00:43:18,640
Speaker 3: Jets and actually ended up biting biting me downgrading.

891
00:43:18,120 --> 00:43:18,600
Speaker 2: It too much.

892
00:43:18,600 --> 00:43:19,560
Speaker 3: So it's it's tough.

893
00:43:20,000 --> 00:43:20,200
Speaker 2: Yep.

894
00:43:20,360 --> 00:43:22,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, no, it's it's it's a very It's one of

895
00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:23,600
Speaker 4: the most difficult things to cap in the NFL.

896
00:43:23,960 --> 00:43:24,760
Speaker 2: But I agree.

897
00:43:24,800 --> 00:43:41,560
Speaker 4: I think it's it's Eagles or nothing. For my third

898
00:43:41,760 --> 00:43:44,640
Speaker 4: pick in the fifth pick of the Sunday six pack,

899
00:43:45,080 --> 00:43:48,239
Speaker 4: I really struggle with this, which one. I wanted to

900
00:43:48,280 --> 00:43:51,360
Speaker 4: go with third, with waiting on some injuries and quarterbacks,

901
00:43:51,360 --> 00:43:55,240
Speaker 4: but I decided to go with the New York Football

902
00:43:55,320 --> 00:43:57,800
Speaker 4: Giants plus four and a half at home against the

903
00:43:57,840 --> 00:43:58,760
Speaker 4: Cleveland Browns.

904
00:44:00,239 --> 00:44:00,840
Speaker 2: And look, this is.

905
00:44:00,800 --> 00:44:03,800
Speaker 4: Another game where I don't know who's necessarily playing at quarterback.

906
00:44:04,160 --> 00:44:05,520
Speaker 2: I make this line around three.

907
00:44:05,880 --> 00:44:08,640
Speaker 4: You do have the Browns on a short week after

908
00:44:08,680 --> 00:44:12,080
Speaker 4: a very emotional game going to New York. They're still

909
00:44:12,120 --> 00:44:15,600
Speaker 4: in a good good place postseason wise, but they could

910
00:44:15,600 --> 00:44:17,360
Speaker 4: really use this game still. But you could see a

911
00:44:17,400 --> 00:44:21,279
Speaker 4: slight hangover here. The Giants have generally been pretty good

912
00:44:21,320 --> 00:44:24,120
Speaker 4: against the run, and they've pretty much been in every

913
00:44:24,200 --> 00:44:28,200
Speaker 4: game this year outside of the San fran game, which

914
00:44:28,239 --> 00:44:30,360
Speaker 4: was just their clunker. Teams are going to have clunkers

915
00:44:30,719 --> 00:44:33,280
Speaker 4: once your end. Last week they did too against Arizona

916
00:44:33,320 --> 00:44:34,560
Speaker 4: and they couldn't do anything. I mean, this is a

917
00:44:34,560 --> 00:44:36,680
Speaker 4: team that had fifty three yards I believe in the

918
00:44:36,680 --> 00:44:39,239
Speaker 4: first half. But why did that happen? I mean, they

919
00:44:39,280 --> 00:44:42,080
Speaker 4: had Daniel Jones in there on one foot, like one

920
00:44:42,160 --> 00:44:44,600
Speaker 4: leg like they and that he had a I heard

921
00:44:44,600 --> 00:44:46,879
Speaker 4: answer going in then he sprained his ankle. So much

922
00:44:46,880 --> 00:44:49,000
Speaker 4: of what Daniel Jones can do out there is because

923
00:44:49,000 --> 00:44:51,680
Speaker 4: of his mobility. You know, it doesn't have the greatest

924
00:44:51,719 --> 00:44:54,040
Speaker 4: offensive line, so he has to create some space in

925
00:44:54,040 --> 00:44:56,000
Speaker 4: the pocket to throw, but also just using his legs

926
00:44:56,000 --> 00:44:58,800
Speaker 4: to pick up first downs. They just kept him and

927
00:44:58,800 --> 00:45:00,799
Speaker 4: they shouldn't have had him in there. Are they going

928
00:45:00,840 --> 00:45:02,160
Speaker 4: to have been there this week? I don't know, to

929
00:45:02,160 --> 00:45:04,520
Speaker 4: be honest, I'm assuming that they won't put him out

930
00:45:04,520 --> 00:45:05,760
Speaker 4: there if he's not fully healthy.

931
00:45:06,440 --> 00:45:09,400
Speaker 3: From their last news I read they are saying that

932
00:45:09,680 --> 00:45:13,000
Speaker 3: they are willing to accept and this is from what

933
00:45:13,600 --> 00:45:16,120
Speaker 3: the coach Joe Jent is saying. They're willing to accept

934
00:45:16,520 --> 00:45:21,040
Speaker 3: Jones's limitations and will start him if he can get

935
00:45:21,080 --> 00:45:22,839
Speaker 3: through the practice week.

936
00:45:23,040 --> 00:45:27,800
Speaker 4: Well I don't love that, but that's basically what happened

937
00:45:27,920 --> 00:45:30,160
Speaker 4: last week because that Jones couldn't move. So you hope

938
00:45:30,160 --> 00:45:32,880
Speaker 4: that if they do play him, he's either healthier, or

939
00:45:32,880 --> 00:45:36,000
Speaker 4: his ankle is better, or his hamstring is better. He'll

940
00:45:36,040 --> 00:45:39,040
Speaker 4: also be going up against the Cardinals defense is not

941
00:45:39,040 --> 00:45:42,120
Speaker 4: great by any stretch, but the Browns defense right now is.

942
00:45:43,080 --> 00:45:45,239
Speaker 2: I mean it's bad, especially on the back end.

943
00:45:45,239 --> 00:45:47,320
Speaker 4: They might be getting word back, which will help at corner,

944
00:45:47,360 --> 00:45:50,800
Speaker 4: but how much does that really help against the Giants?

945
00:45:50,840 --> 00:45:51,320
Speaker 2: Not much.

946
00:45:51,560 --> 00:45:53,560
Speaker 4: I think that Evan Ingram could have a huge game.

947
00:45:54,040 --> 00:45:56,160
Speaker 4: The Giants should be able to run it on Cleveland.

948
00:45:56,200 --> 00:45:58,120
Speaker 4: I mean, this back end of the Cleveland defense, especially

949
00:45:58,160 --> 00:46:01,600
Speaker 4: at safety and linebacker, is just absolutely atrocious. And you

950
00:46:01,600 --> 00:46:03,600
Speaker 4: have to remember when you're looking at their numbers, you

951
00:46:03,640 --> 00:46:07,840
Speaker 4: have three horrifying win games in there, so their defensive

952
00:46:07,880 --> 00:46:11,719
Speaker 4: numbers should be much worse, and their offensive numbers. I mean,

953
00:46:12,040 --> 00:46:13,919
Speaker 4: Baker Mayfield has played a little better than I thought

954
00:46:13,920 --> 00:46:16,279
Speaker 4: over the past weeks. We know their offensive line is great,

955
00:46:16,320 --> 00:46:18,320
Speaker 4: we know their running game is great. Their offensive numbers

956
00:46:18,520 --> 00:46:20,600
Speaker 4: should be better too. Overall, I got it just to

957
00:46:20,600 --> 00:46:23,319
Speaker 4: be fair, but this Giants team will fight. It's a

958
00:46:23,360 --> 00:46:26,279
Speaker 4: great time to buy them low after that clunker last week.

959
00:46:26,440 --> 00:46:29,680
Speaker 4: You hope you get better QB health, whether that's Jones

960
00:46:29,680 --> 00:46:31,200
Speaker 4: can't go, and you get McCoy in there.

961
00:46:31,480 --> 00:46:33,319
Speaker 2: Remember McCoy went to Seattle and one.

962
00:46:33,400 --> 00:46:37,000
Speaker 4: He can still complete short passes against a bad defense,

963
00:46:37,000 --> 00:46:39,960
Speaker 4: which is what the Browns are. And I think that

964
00:46:40,040 --> 00:46:43,960
Speaker 4: the Giants can compete here with their run defense, which

965
00:46:44,000 --> 00:46:45,520
Speaker 4: is really key against Cleveland.

966
00:46:46,120 --> 00:46:46,480
Speaker 2: Mainly.

967
00:46:46,560 --> 00:46:49,319
Speaker 4: These are all just reasons that I'm giving that I

968
00:46:49,360 --> 00:46:51,600
Speaker 4: do like and believe in. But I make this line

969
00:46:51,600 --> 00:46:54,560
Speaker 4: about three. So I'm getting four and a half five

970
00:46:55,239 --> 00:46:58,640
Speaker 4: at home after the Giants had that clunker last week.

971
00:46:58,960 --> 00:47:01,879
Speaker 4: So I'm willing to side with the home dog here,

972
00:47:02,000 --> 00:47:05,040
Speaker 4: who for all intents and purposes, is playing for their

973
00:47:05,080 --> 00:47:08,759
Speaker 4: season because they're then They're at Baltimore next week after

974
00:47:08,920 --> 00:47:12,000
Speaker 4: dropping that game last week, and Washington won. This basically

975
00:47:12,040 --> 00:47:14,960
Speaker 4: could make or break their season. So give me the

976
00:47:15,040 --> 00:47:18,719
Speaker 4: Giants catching the Browns in a short week in New York.

977
00:47:19,200 --> 00:47:21,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is what I thought it really hard about

978
00:47:21,400 --> 00:47:24,320
Speaker 3: because I actually have a projected edge around the same

979
00:47:24,760 --> 00:47:27,239
Speaker 3: as you do. Really, the only thing that gave me

980
00:47:27,280 --> 00:47:30,560
Speaker 3: pause was that that Judge quote because I talked about

981
00:47:30,560 --> 00:47:32,200
Speaker 3: it in a piece I wrote about the NFC East

982
00:47:32,239 --> 00:47:34,680
Speaker 3: last week with the Giants are the game plan team,

983
00:47:34,719 --> 00:47:37,000
Speaker 3: like they're going to out coach most teams and come

984
00:47:37,040 --> 00:47:39,720
Speaker 3: with a better game plan most weeks, And what happened

985
00:47:39,800 --> 00:47:43,360
Speaker 3: last week, they got they got out coached. They you know,

986
00:47:43,440 --> 00:47:46,320
Speaker 3: they they were defensive fronts that the Cards kind of

987
00:47:46,320 --> 00:47:49,880
Speaker 3: showed them that that they weren't expecting. And really I

988
00:47:49,920 --> 00:47:53,200
Speaker 3: think it really came through because Daniel Jones didn't have

989
00:47:53,239 --> 00:47:55,839
Speaker 3: that mobility and they didn't have that ability to kind

990
00:47:55,880 --> 00:47:58,440
Speaker 3: of adjust on the fly to what you know, the

991
00:47:58,480 --> 00:48:02,000
Speaker 3: Cards were doing without that mobility. So yeah, it's it's

992
00:48:02,000 --> 00:48:04,040
Speaker 3: something I think you have to monitor throughout the week.

993
00:48:04,560 --> 00:48:08,680
Speaker 3: But from a just from a pure projections perspective, I

994
00:48:08,760 --> 00:48:10,800
Speaker 3: to see some value on this line just waiting to

995
00:48:10,880 --> 00:48:12,880
Speaker 3: kind of see what's up with Daniel Jones.

996
00:48:14,560 --> 00:48:16,800
Speaker 1: Let's hear it for Danny Times.

997
00:48:23,880 --> 00:48:29,000
Speaker 3: All right for my final pick, the sixth pick of

998
00:48:29,080 --> 00:48:32,960
Speaker 3: the Sunday six pack. We are going we're getting ugly here,

999
00:48:33,239 --> 00:48:35,359
Speaker 3: or maybe maybe it's not a depending how you look

1000
00:48:35,400 --> 00:48:38,560
Speaker 3: at it. But did it last week, Gonna do it again.

1001
00:48:39,680 --> 00:48:41,520
Speaker 3: And this is I think probably the highest line of

1002
00:48:41,600 --> 00:48:44,840
Speaker 3: taken in the history of this podcast. But Rams minus

1003
00:48:44,840 --> 00:48:48,600
Speaker 3: seventeen against the New York Jets. This is pure week

1004
00:48:48,680 --> 00:48:51,120
Speaker 3: because I expect the Jets to get blown out for

1005
00:48:51,160 --> 00:48:54,319
Speaker 3: a second week in a row on the road. Look

1006
00:48:54,360 --> 00:48:58,640
Speaker 3: at this Rams team. The defense is impeccable. They're not

1007
00:48:58,680 --> 00:49:01,480
Speaker 3: gonna be They're not gonna you know, Jets. Their strength

1008
00:49:01,520 --> 00:49:04,440
Speaker 3: on offense is wide receivers. They have Mims, they have Prouder,

1009
00:49:04,480 --> 00:49:07,520
Speaker 3: they have Peramit. They get nothing out of the tight end.

1010
00:49:08,080 --> 00:49:10,600
Speaker 3: They run Frank Gore out there for half at least

1011
00:49:10,640 --> 00:49:12,960
Speaker 3: half the snaps. They're really getting nothing out of the backfield.

1012
00:49:13,040 --> 00:49:15,319
Speaker 3: So their wide receivers have to come through for them

1013
00:49:15,320 --> 00:49:18,360
Speaker 3: to move the ball. On offense, Well, the Rams have

1014
00:49:18,800 --> 00:49:21,879
Speaker 3: Jalen Ramsey, they have you know, Troy Hill. They can

1015
00:49:22,080 --> 00:49:25,279
Speaker 3: completely take away your wide receivers. And we kind of

1016
00:49:25,320 --> 00:49:27,880
Speaker 3: saw with Cam Newton last week. You know, he was

1017
00:49:27,920 --> 00:49:30,720
Speaker 3: able to get you know, a couple of explosive plays,

1018
00:49:30,719 --> 00:49:34,440
Speaker 3: but nothing else for the entire game ends up getting benched.

1019
00:49:35,000 --> 00:49:37,600
Speaker 3: This could be a game where we see some Joe

1020
00:49:37,600 --> 00:49:41,280
Speaker 3: Flacco because I don't expect the Rams to give up anything.

1021
00:49:41,360 --> 00:49:44,480
Speaker 3: So it's really about them getting I think, you know,

1022
00:49:44,560 --> 00:49:49,000
Speaker 3: getting to twenty mid twenties in points, which you know

1023
00:49:49,120 --> 00:49:51,759
Speaker 3: earlier in the year they kind of skid in on

1024
00:49:51,800 --> 00:49:54,880
Speaker 3: that against the Giants one game. But this Jets defense,

1025
00:49:55,560 --> 00:49:57,520
Speaker 3: it's not it hasn't been very good. I mean they

1026
00:49:57,560 --> 00:50:00,440
Speaker 3: gave up a huge amount of points to see who

1027
00:50:00,520 --> 00:50:03,239
Speaker 3: is you know, playing shaky offense to the point where

1028
00:50:03,280 --> 00:50:06,200
Speaker 3: Seattle is playing their second stringers for the entire fourth quarter.

1029
00:50:06,320 --> 00:50:10,520
Speaker 3: So this is another spot just Adam Gase's teams. Usually

1030
00:50:10,520 --> 00:50:13,960
Speaker 3: you're betting on the big road dog here, but Adam

1031
00:50:14,000 --> 00:50:16,800
Speaker 3: Gase as a road dog. Anytime he's five and a

1032
00:50:16,840 --> 00:50:21,440
Speaker 3: half or higher, it's he's five and nineteen against the spread,

1033
00:50:22,000 --> 00:50:24,760
Speaker 3: and that trend holds when you're looking at double digit spreads.

1034
00:50:24,800 --> 00:50:28,000
Speaker 3: So going Rams seventeen against the Jets.

1035
00:50:27,800 --> 00:50:29,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll play Devil's advocate here.

1036
00:50:29,400 --> 00:50:32,040
Speaker 4: I mean, the counterpoints to everything that I'm saying is

1037
00:50:32,040 --> 00:50:34,759
Speaker 4: it's Jets Adam Gase, I mean, because he tends to

1038
00:50:34,760 --> 00:50:37,200
Speaker 4: be the exception to the rule, to all of this,

1039
00:50:38,360 --> 00:50:39,160
Speaker 4: to all of what I'm.

1040
00:50:39,040 --> 00:50:39,640
Speaker 2: About to say.

1041
00:50:39,719 --> 00:50:42,440
Speaker 4: But if you know, this is a great Bilo Sell

1042
00:50:42,480 --> 00:50:44,040
Speaker 4: high spot in the NFL. On the surface, you know

1043
00:50:44,239 --> 00:50:46,560
Speaker 4: that the Rams to have extra prep but the Rams

1044
00:50:47,239 --> 00:50:50,480
Speaker 4: win by seventeen more or more, the Jets lost by

1045
00:50:50,480 --> 00:50:52,680
Speaker 4: seventeen or more. When that happens in the NFL, on those

1046
00:50:52,680 --> 00:50:56,480
Speaker 4: two teams meet the following game, the team that lost

1047
00:50:56,480 --> 00:51:00,239
Speaker 4: by seventeen or more ninety four sixty and fourgainst the

1048
00:51:00,239 --> 00:51:02,480
Speaker 4: special deals with three sixty one percent. That just speaks

1049
00:51:02,480 --> 00:51:04,560
Speaker 4: to and what that speaks to is probably the little

1050
00:51:04,560 --> 00:51:06,600
Speaker 4: bit of extra value that you'll get on the market

1051
00:51:06,600 --> 00:51:09,840
Speaker 4: over reaction. Also, teams that lose by thirty five plus

1052
00:51:09,880 --> 00:51:11,960
Speaker 4: in their previous game, which the Jets that just.

1053
00:51:12,000 --> 00:51:15,000
Speaker 2: Did sixty two, thirty.

1054
00:51:14,680 --> 00:51:18,960
Speaker 4: Seven and five sixty two point six percent against the spread,

1055
00:51:19,000 --> 00:51:22,880
Speaker 4: that's over a twenty percent ROI. So on, on the

1056
00:51:22,960 --> 00:51:26,879
Speaker 4: surface from a spot perspective, from my line, i'd see a.

1057
00:51:26,800 --> 00:51:30,040
Speaker 2: Touch of value. I would actually have to contemplate the Jets.

1058
00:51:30,040 --> 00:51:31,680
Speaker 4: I don't know if I would actually pull the trigger, because

1059
00:51:31,680 --> 00:51:34,759
Speaker 4: that would Actually, I would also put my undefeated one

1060
00:51:34,840 --> 00:51:37,200
Speaker 4: to zero against the spread record betting on the Jets

1061
00:51:37,200 --> 00:51:39,680
Speaker 4: in twenty twenty if it reached seventeen and a half, eighteen,

1062
00:51:40,160 --> 00:51:42,520
Speaker 4: I do make it a bit lower. There's also one

1063
00:51:42,520 --> 00:51:45,080
Speaker 4: other thing I'll throw out here. The Rams have the

1064
00:51:45,120 --> 00:51:49,120
Speaker 4: Seahawks next week basically for the division. So do they

1065
00:51:50,120 --> 00:51:53,279
Speaker 4: come out a little flat early? Does golf just give

1066
00:51:53,320 --> 00:51:56,600
Speaker 4: you a bad turnover? Do they go ultra vanilla? Do

1067
00:51:56,680 --> 00:51:58,959
Speaker 4: they go ultra conservative with the lead and the Jets

1068
00:51:59,000 --> 00:52:01,319
Speaker 4: get in the back door? These are things that I

1069
00:52:01,360 --> 00:52:03,840
Speaker 4: thought about reason I'm mentioning them, But then I just

1070
00:52:03,880 --> 00:52:05,960
Speaker 4: go back to I mean, you look at double digit dogs.

1071
00:52:06,000 --> 00:52:08,319
Speaker 4: The NFL historically been a good bet over the last

1072
00:52:08,320 --> 00:52:10,880
Speaker 4: five years. The Jets been horrible. The case has been

1073
00:52:10,920 --> 00:52:14,160
Speaker 4: horrible in these spots. It's their second straight trip out

1074
00:52:14,160 --> 00:52:16,160
Speaker 4: in the West Coast for a team that hasn't won

1075
00:52:16,200 --> 00:52:18,759
Speaker 4: a game all year. I mean, do they eed to

1076
00:52:18,800 --> 00:52:21,719
Speaker 4: show up? They have so many injuries on the defensive

1077
00:52:21,800 --> 00:52:24,040
Speaker 4: end as well. Yeah, So it's hard for me to

1078
00:52:24,040 --> 00:52:26,560
Speaker 4: come up with any reasons why the Jets would cover

1079
00:52:26,640 --> 00:52:28,560
Speaker 4: other than I show a tab bit of value.

1080
00:52:28,640 --> 00:52:30,200
Speaker 2: It's not a great spot.

1081
00:52:30,560 --> 00:52:32,640
Speaker 4: For the Rams to want to blow this open, but

1082
00:52:32,680 --> 00:52:34,600
Speaker 4: they just might naturally because they're a lot better.

1083
00:52:34,800 --> 00:52:37,080
Speaker 2: But just keep those in mind that by low.

1084
00:52:37,040 --> 00:52:39,600
Speaker 4: Sell high spot after what you saw last week, more

1085
00:52:39,600 --> 00:52:42,160
Speaker 4: times than not, if you bet on the team just

1086
00:52:42,200 --> 00:52:45,040
Speaker 4: blindly that lost by three touchdowns against the team that

1087
00:52:45,080 --> 00:52:47,680
Speaker 4: won by two one by three touchdowns the week prior,

1088
00:52:48,160 --> 00:52:50,319
Speaker 4: you're probably gonna win more times than not.

1089
00:52:51,120 --> 00:52:53,840
Speaker 2: But fading the Jets and fading games, I can't disagree

1090
00:52:53,840 --> 00:52:54,400
Speaker 2: with you.

1091
00:52:54,480 --> 00:52:56,400
Speaker 3: So Adam Gase is two and eight as a double

1092
00:52:56,440 --> 00:52:59,360
Speaker 3: digit road dog against the spread, and he's one in

1093
00:52:59,440 --> 00:53:03,160
Speaker 3: three the spread is seventeen or more. So yeah, he's

1094
00:53:03,200 --> 00:53:05,840
Speaker 3: just the exception and I'm betting against him for the

1095
00:53:05,880 --> 00:53:07,279
Speaker 3: rest of the year. I mean, I'm pretty sure he's

1096
00:53:07,320 --> 00:53:09,640
Speaker 3: going to be gone when the year's out. But this

1097
00:53:09,800 --> 00:53:11,600
Speaker 3: is just a spot where I think the Rams are

1098
00:53:11,880 --> 00:53:13,600
Speaker 3: Like you look at what Seattle did to the Ram

1099
00:53:13,920 --> 00:53:16,240
Speaker 3: to the Jets, and then you look at the Rams

1100
00:53:16,239 --> 00:53:18,239
Speaker 3: beat Seattle was it twenty four to thirteen a couple

1101
00:53:18,239 --> 00:53:20,319
Speaker 3: of weeks ago. I just think the Rams are even

1102
00:53:20,400 --> 00:53:22,640
Speaker 3: better than Seattle on both sides of the ball right now.

1103
00:53:22,760 --> 00:53:25,319
Speaker 3: And yeah, I don't expect the Jest to be able

1104
00:53:25,320 --> 00:53:27,240
Speaker 3: to keep it close, bro, That's kind of my figure

1105
00:53:27,440 --> 00:53:30,960
Speaker 3: fair enough, all right, So to recap, Stuck going with

1106
00:53:31,000 --> 00:53:34,120
Speaker 3: the Patriots plus two and a half, the Broncos plus six,

1107
00:53:34,200 --> 00:53:37,200
Speaker 3: and the Giants plus four and a half. I am

1108
00:53:37,239 --> 00:53:41,880
Speaker 3: going with the forty nine Ers minus three, the Eagles

1109
00:53:41,880 --> 00:53:45,880
Speaker 3: plus six and a half, and the Rams minus seveneen.

1110
00:53:46,480 --> 00:53:49,680
Speaker 3: That was our Sunday six pack with some Saturday games

1111
00:53:49,719 --> 00:53:53,920
Speaker 3: thrown in. Reminder, you can follow all of the picks

1112
00:53:53,920 --> 00:53:55,800
Speaker 3: on the app. Just search for Sunday six pack and

1113
00:53:55,840 --> 00:53:59,799
Speaker 3: the Action Networks apps follow feature. Next up, we have

1114
00:53:59,840 --> 00:54:04,400
Speaker 3: our favorite over underplays of the All right, Stuck, I

1115
00:54:04,440 --> 00:54:07,440
Speaker 3: will take the lead on the total since you went

1116
00:54:07,480 --> 00:54:10,920
Speaker 3: first for the six pack, I am going with the

1117
00:54:10,960 --> 00:54:14,279
Speaker 3: Patriots Dolphins under forty one and a half for many

1118
00:54:14,280 --> 00:54:17,360
Speaker 3: of the reasons you just mentioned with Belichick and a

1119
00:54:17,600 --> 00:54:22,359
Speaker 3: rookie quarterback. If you are looking at an under, and

1120
00:54:23,160 --> 00:54:24,719
Speaker 3: you know you're kind of looking at it from the

1121
00:54:24,719 --> 00:54:28,319
Speaker 3: perspective of okay, is one of these teams or both

1122
00:54:28,320 --> 00:54:30,600
Speaker 3: of these teams potentially going to kind of fall short

1123
00:54:30,640 --> 00:54:32,600
Speaker 3: of living up to their end of the bargain. And

1124
00:54:32,640 --> 00:54:35,960
Speaker 3: I think in this case, Miami being the favorite especially,

1125
00:54:36,760 --> 00:54:39,880
Speaker 3: may not get to those twenty whathe is it twenty

1126
00:54:39,920 --> 00:54:42,920
Speaker 3: two or so implied points twenty two and a half

1127
00:54:42,960 --> 00:54:47,440
Speaker 3: implied points in this game. I think that Belichick can

1128
00:54:47,440 --> 00:54:50,000
Speaker 3: hold them into the teams, especially they're dealing with some injuries.

1129
00:54:50,040 --> 00:54:52,560
Speaker 3: You know, Devonte Parker, he's practicing on a limited basis.

1130
00:54:52,560 --> 00:54:55,640
Speaker 3: But their tight end Gasicki's out, so they don't really

1131
00:54:55,640 --> 00:54:58,000
Speaker 3: have a pass catching tight end. Now they're going to

1132
00:54:58,040 --> 00:55:00,839
Speaker 3: go with Shaheen and Durham Smith at that and that's

1133
00:55:00,880 --> 00:55:01,800
Speaker 3: what Parker.

1134
00:55:01,880 --> 00:55:04,399
Speaker 4: I look, I have Parker on my one fancy team

1135
00:55:04,440 --> 00:55:06,840
Speaker 4: that he's just he's irrelevant when to it starts, and

1136
00:55:06,960 --> 00:55:08,800
Speaker 4: he too loves throwing to get sicky.

1137
00:55:09,120 --> 00:55:11,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a tough spot for Miami anyway, just with

1138
00:55:11,960 --> 00:55:14,160
Speaker 3: some of the injuries they're going through. But yeah, I

1139
00:55:14,320 --> 00:55:15,839
Speaker 3: don't expect them to kind of move up to their

1140
00:55:15,880 --> 00:55:17,520
Speaker 3: side of the bargain. And then we know it what

1141
00:55:17,560 --> 00:55:19,600
Speaker 3: the Patriots like to do. They like to slow it down.

1142
00:55:19,840 --> 00:55:22,319
Speaker 3: They like to run the football as much as they

1143
00:55:22,360 --> 00:55:26,600
Speaker 3: can shorten the game. And you don't necessarily expect them

1144
00:55:26,640 --> 00:55:31,040
Speaker 3: to out exceed their implied point total in this game either.

1145
00:55:31,080 --> 00:55:34,040
Speaker 3: Miami still overall pretty good on defense, even though they

1146
00:55:34,040 --> 00:55:37,600
Speaker 3: do struggle and run defense. So I think that I

1147
00:55:37,640 --> 00:55:40,120
Speaker 3: think this one's a good under bet here forty one

1148
00:55:40,160 --> 00:55:41,920
Speaker 3: and a half paid past Dolphins.

1149
00:55:42,480 --> 00:55:43,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, don't disgree that you said.

1150
00:55:44,239 --> 00:55:48,840
Speaker 4: For my favorite total of the week, i'd have to

1151
00:55:48,920 --> 00:55:51,080
Speaker 4: end a streak. I think I've hit five in a

1152
00:55:51,200 --> 00:55:53,719
Speaker 4: row of all Seattle unders, or four or five in

1153
00:55:53,760 --> 00:55:56,719
Speaker 4: a row. I think the market is finally caught up.

1154
00:55:57,200 --> 00:55:58,960
Speaker 4: Last week it actually probably should have hit. I think

1155
00:55:58,960 --> 00:56:02,200
Speaker 4: the Jets missed like four field goals and then Gino

1156
00:56:02,239 --> 00:56:03,359
Speaker 4: Smith came in the fourth quarter.

1157
00:56:03,400 --> 00:56:05,799
Speaker 2: It was just that big of a blowout. If you

1158
00:56:05,840 --> 00:56:08,000
Speaker 2: get it over forty five, I'd like it.

1159
00:56:08,400 --> 00:56:10,920
Speaker 4: But it's at forty four and a half now that

1160
00:56:11,040 --> 00:56:13,080
Speaker 4: the market knows now that Seattle is no longer your

1161
00:56:13,120 --> 00:56:15,799
Speaker 4: dream over team, and they become your dream under team,

1162
00:56:15,840 --> 00:56:17,080
Speaker 4: and now I think they're just neutral.

1163
00:56:18,239 --> 00:56:19,600
Speaker 2: That's what happens in the NFL market.

1164
00:56:19,960 --> 00:56:24,400
Speaker 4: So I'm gonna go with the Chicago Bears Minnesota Vikings

1165
00:56:24,760 --> 00:56:27,360
Speaker 4: under forty seven and a half at bet MGM.

1166
00:56:28,640 --> 00:56:31,120
Speaker 2: I make this lower. These are two six.

1167
00:56:30,960 --> 00:56:35,160
Speaker 4: And seven teams fighting for an outside playoff shot in

1168
00:56:35,239 --> 00:56:38,640
Speaker 4: a division matchup late in the year. Might see two

1169
00:56:38,680 --> 00:56:42,040
Speaker 4: teams be fairly conservative here. But basically, just when you

1170
00:56:42,080 --> 00:56:45,719
Speaker 4: look at when these teams play, the Bears are the

1171
00:56:45,760 --> 00:56:48,759
Speaker 4: one team that really contains dob and Cook. He just

1172
00:56:48,880 --> 00:56:52,239
Speaker 4: can't get it going against Chicago, and I mean a

1173
00:56:52,320 --> 00:56:56,200
Speaker 4: Keem Hicks just has monster games against them. They take

1174
00:56:56,280 --> 00:56:59,279
Speaker 4: it personal and it's just Dovin Cook just never gets

1175
00:56:59,320 --> 00:57:01,400
Speaker 4: it going. And that's the focal point in the starting

1176
00:57:01,440 --> 00:57:04,799
Speaker 4: point of this Vikings offense. On the other side the ball,

1177
00:57:04,800 --> 00:57:08,600
Speaker 4: the Vikings defense hasn't been great. It isn't a great unit.

1178
00:57:08,880 --> 00:57:13,040
Speaker 4: Mitch Trubisky has played better of late, but last week

1179
00:57:13,040 --> 00:57:16,880
Speaker 4: he played the Texans. They have no secondary left. It's

1180
00:57:17,160 --> 00:57:20,760
Speaker 4: Hargreaves and Philip Gains. It's a disaster. The week before

1181
00:57:21,400 --> 00:57:24,080
Speaker 4: he played Detroit, the one team he always plays well

1182
00:57:24,120 --> 00:57:27,840
Speaker 4: against that also has no secondary. When you're talking about

1183
00:57:27,840 --> 00:57:29,919
Speaker 4: two of the worst secondaries in the NFL the past

1184
00:57:29,920 --> 00:57:32,480
Speaker 4: two weeks. The week before that he played Green Bay

1185
00:57:32,720 --> 00:57:35,600
Speaker 4: and he had a bunch of garbage time points when

1186
00:57:35,600 --> 00:57:39,560
Speaker 4: that game was forty one to ten. So yeah, he

1187
00:57:39,600 --> 00:57:42,360
Speaker 4: has played better overall. I think that he's a better

1188
00:57:42,400 --> 00:57:45,640
Speaker 4: option than Foles. And the week before that he played Minnesota.

1189
00:57:45,800 --> 00:57:48,440
Speaker 4: It was with Foles and you know the Bears put

1190
00:57:48,480 --> 00:57:51,840
Speaker 4: up thirteen points, so yeah, to Risky's played better, but

1191
00:57:51,840 --> 00:57:54,880
Speaker 4: it's been three weeks. One was in garbage time, two

1192
00:57:54,880 --> 00:57:56,760
Speaker 4: where against two of the worst secondaries and defenses in

1193
00:57:56,760 --> 00:57:57,280
Speaker 4: the NFL.

1194
00:57:57,560 --> 00:58:01,760
Speaker 2: So it's is still much Bortals is much Trubisky, You've

1195
00:58:01,920 --> 00:58:05,200
Speaker 2: just been bortled. I don't see him lighting it up here.

1196
00:58:05,760 --> 00:58:07,479
Speaker 4: I think he's a better option than Foalds at this point,

1197
00:58:07,520 --> 00:58:10,360
Speaker 4: just because he offers some mobility, and I have said

1198
00:58:10,360 --> 00:58:12,080
Speaker 4: I'd like some things that the Bears have done with

1199
00:58:12,120 --> 00:58:15,400
Speaker 4: their offense the past couple weeks less Jimmy Graham.

1200
00:58:15,760 --> 00:58:17,720
Speaker 2: Montgomery's looked a little better and.

1201
00:58:17,640 --> 00:58:22,080
Speaker 4: He's broken some runs, but overall still an average at

1202
00:58:22,240 --> 00:58:24,680
Speaker 4: best offense on a good day. So I think this

1203
00:58:24,760 --> 00:58:27,560
Speaker 4: is a grinder, and I think forty seven and a

1204
00:58:27,600 --> 00:58:28,600
Speaker 4: half is too high.

1205
00:58:28,880 --> 00:58:31,120
Speaker 2: I think this game is playing in the low twenties.

1206
00:58:31,720 --> 00:58:36,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, you saw in the last matchup, Minnesota scores just

1207
00:58:36,160 --> 00:58:39,040
Speaker 3: nineteen on the Bears on offense, and then the Bears

1208
00:58:39,040 --> 00:58:42,040
Speaker 3: score only thirteen points, granted with folds, but they need

1209
00:58:42,120 --> 00:58:47,040
Speaker 3: a Cordero Patterson kickoff return just to get there. So yeah,

1210
00:58:47,400 --> 00:58:50,040
Speaker 3: this is a game that second matchup should be tight.

1211
00:58:50,880 --> 00:58:53,360
Speaker 3: Definitely agree. This is an undergame on the way.

1212
00:58:54,000 --> 00:58:55,680
Speaker 4: The one last thing that I'll add in here for

1213
00:58:55,720 --> 00:59:00,200
Speaker 4: that Bears Vikings under If all things go wrong, you'll

1214
00:59:00,240 --> 00:59:02,080
Speaker 4: have in your back pockets Dan Bailey.

1215
00:59:01,760 --> 00:59:04,840
Speaker 2: Missing field goals. Apparently they're not going to cut him.

1216
00:59:05,360 --> 00:59:08,280
Speaker 3: So to recap, I'm going Pats Dolphins under forty one

1217
00:59:08,320 --> 00:59:12,600
Speaker 3: and a half, stuck going Bears Mikes under forty seven

1218
00:59:12,680 --> 00:59:15,880
Speaker 3: and a half. Now let's get into our favorite teaser

1219
00:59:16,600 --> 00:59:17,080
Speaker 3: of the week.

1220
00:59:17,800 --> 00:59:21,840
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, six point teasers all right?

1221
00:59:21,840 --> 00:59:24,320
Speaker 3: For those not familiar, teaser is when you combine two

1222
00:59:24,440 --> 00:59:26,440
Speaker 3: or more bets. For each bet, you get an extra

1223
00:59:26,880 --> 00:59:29,800
Speaker 3: six points or however many points you're teasing toward the

1224
00:59:29,800 --> 00:59:32,960
Speaker 3: spread for each team. So, for example, if you're teasing

1225
00:59:33,040 --> 00:59:36,000
Speaker 3: an eight point favorite with a six point teaser, they

1226
00:59:36,040 --> 00:59:39,120
Speaker 3: become a two point favorite, and an eight point underdog

1227
00:59:39,200 --> 00:59:44,160
Speaker 3: becomes a fourteen point underdog. Stuck where you're going? Which

1228
00:59:44,200 --> 00:59:45,760
Speaker 3: you were at teaser for this week?

1229
00:59:45,840 --> 00:59:48,400
Speaker 2: I mentioned this early in the podcast.

1230
00:59:48,480 --> 00:59:51,320
Speaker 4: There's a few good teaser options, including the Chargers on

1231
00:59:51,400 --> 00:59:55,480
Speaker 4: Thursday night, the Bears I think even at three three

1232
00:59:55,520 --> 00:59:58,680
Speaker 4: and a half. But I'll give you one that fits

1233
00:59:59,200 --> 01:00:02,120
Speaker 4: the mold and I'll go if I put this in

1234
01:00:02,160 --> 01:00:05,920
Speaker 4: on the Action app already the Patriots teasing them from

1235
01:00:05,960 --> 01:00:07,480
Speaker 4: two and a half up to eight and a half

1236
01:00:07,840 --> 01:00:11,440
Speaker 4: across that three, four, six, and seven. Also, lower scoring

1237
01:00:11,480 --> 01:00:14,800
Speaker 4: game makes it an even lower total. I also think,

1238
01:00:14,840 --> 01:00:17,040
Speaker 4: like you, it's going to be a lower scoring game

1239
01:00:17,160 --> 01:00:21,600
Speaker 4: that makes the tees even more valuable. And I'll throw

1240
01:00:21,640 --> 01:00:24,480
Speaker 4: them in with green Bay. Green Bay's at minus eight

1241
01:00:24,520 --> 01:00:27,000
Speaker 4: and a half right now. Green Bay just seems like

1242
01:00:27,000 --> 01:00:30,200
Speaker 4: they're every week a great teas piece. Maybe they give

1243
01:00:30,280 --> 01:00:32,400
Speaker 4: up a back door they almost did with Philly, but

1244
01:00:32,440 --> 01:00:35,439
Speaker 4: then they got one they did with Detroit, but they're

1245
01:00:35,480 --> 01:00:39,160
Speaker 4: still covering the teas. So yeah, I think the Packers

1246
01:00:39,160 --> 01:00:40,960
Speaker 4: win this game. One of the things that you'll see

1247
01:00:41,000 --> 01:00:43,240
Speaker 4: mccaffree's not playing for the Panthers for what doesn't look

1248
01:00:43,280 --> 01:00:45,040
Speaker 4: like a play for what it's worth. And one of

1249
01:00:45,040 --> 01:00:47,440
Speaker 4: the things that I think you're seeing with Carolina right

1250
01:00:47,480 --> 01:00:49,720
Speaker 4: now that I've talked about on the podcast all year

1251
01:00:50,360 --> 01:00:53,160
Speaker 4: is that defense is going to regress hard, especially that

1252
01:00:53,320 --> 01:00:57,040
Speaker 4: secondary that happened with Minnesota late, it happened with Drew

1253
01:00:57,120 --> 01:01:00,640
Speaker 4: Locke last week. Russell Douglas had a terrible game. He's

1254
01:01:00,640 --> 01:01:03,800
Speaker 4: not an elite corner. So I don't think that I

1255
01:01:03,840 --> 01:01:06,560
Speaker 4: don't think that Aaron Rodgers will have any issues here

1256
01:01:06,720 --> 01:01:10,360
Speaker 4: against Carolina in an important game for Green Bay NFC game.

1257
01:01:10,680 --> 01:01:12,880
Speaker 4: I have to keep pacing, keep that one seed. So

1258
01:01:13,560 --> 01:01:16,320
Speaker 4: maybe Carolina gets in the back door here. Maybe not,

1259
01:01:17,040 --> 01:01:19,680
Speaker 4: but I'm comfortable with Rogers winning this game at home.

1260
01:01:19,800 --> 01:01:21,120
Speaker 4: So Packers pats.

1261
01:01:22,560 --> 01:01:25,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Packer I mean the Panthers defense. When they

1262
01:01:26,000 --> 01:01:28,680
Speaker 3: get four touchdowns to Drew Locke, no picks, I mean

1263
01:01:28,720 --> 01:01:32,000
Speaker 3: that's for a guy that's been it's been picked more

1264
01:01:32,280 --> 01:01:35,920
Speaker 3: more picks and touchdowns every no garbage time, right, It's

1265
01:01:36,600 --> 01:01:38,840
Speaker 3: and didn't they get a Dante Jackson back for that

1266
01:01:38,920 --> 01:01:42,760
Speaker 3: game too? Like yeah, it's nothing's helping because they're not

1267
01:01:42,840 --> 01:01:45,800
Speaker 3: really doing anything. They can't they're not in position to

1268
01:01:45,840 --> 01:01:48,560
Speaker 3: do anything kind of exotic. They're just kind of going

1269
01:01:48,640 --> 01:01:51,680
Speaker 3: to sit back and you know their lack of talent

1270
01:01:51,760 --> 01:01:52,600
Speaker 3: is gonna play out.

1271
01:01:52,640 --> 01:01:55,640
Speaker 2: So yeah, Aaron Rodgers, they play a ton of zone,

1272
01:01:55,680 --> 01:01:56,479
Speaker 2: I mean, good luck.

1273
01:01:56,800 --> 01:02:00,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, Aaron Rodgers is gonna pick that apart. Uh. For

1274
01:02:00,560 --> 01:02:03,280
Speaker 3: my teas, I mean I could actually go with the

1275
01:02:03,280 --> 01:02:05,360
Speaker 3: Packers too, but the teas I chose, I'll stick with

1276
01:02:05,400 --> 01:02:10,640
Speaker 3: it is Patriots plus eight and a half and Colts

1277
01:02:10,680 --> 01:02:15,640
Speaker 3: minus one and a half. The Texans, I mean they're decimated.

1278
01:02:16,320 --> 01:02:18,520
Speaker 3: They look like they're gonna get Cooks back, but Fuller

1279
01:02:18,600 --> 01:02:21,440
Speaker 3: is still just a huge loss to be without Fuller.

1280
01:02:21,440 --> 01:02:22,720
Speaker 3: But then on the other side of the ball, I mean,

1281
01:02:22,720 --> 01:02:25,840
Speaker 3: they're missing a ton of defensive backs. You know, their

1282
01:02:25,880 --> 01:02:30,440
Speaker 3: cornerback situation is just atrocious. You have the Colts. T

1283
01:02:30,640 --> 01:02:34,240
Speaker 3: Y Hilton's playing better. You know, they're not covided up.

1284
01:02:34,360 --> 01:02:38,560
Speaker 3: Still have some issues at tackle, but nothing that should

1285
01:02:38,880 --> 01:02:40,760
Speaker 3: kind of give them problems in this game. And then

1286
01:02:40,800 --> 01:02:43,280
Speaker 3: on top of that, Jonathan Taylor's been getting hot lately

1287
01:02:43,320 --> 01:02:45,440
Speaker 3: in Houston's the worst run defense in the league. So

1288
01:02:45,960 --> 01:02:48,880
Speaker 3: this is just a plus matchup for the Colts, I

1289
01:02:48,920 --> 01:02:51,480
Speaker 3: think pretty much across the board. It is a division game,

1290
01:02:51,560 --> 01:02:54,480
Speaker 3: so weird things can happen. That's why I rather tease

1291
01:02:54,480 --> 01:02:57,680
Speaker 3: them than take them straight up at the number, which

1292
01:02:57,720 --> 01:02:59,640
Speaker 3: I think is pretty much on point at seven and

1293
01:02:59,680 --> 01:03:01,640
Speaker 3: a half. Going Colts Pats here.

1294
01:03:01,640 --> 01:03:02,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Colts.

1295
01:03:02,920 --> 01:03:05,120
Speaker 4: I don't disagree with using the with the Colts here.

1296
01:03:05,160 --> 01:03:08,680
Speaker 4: They should win this game. Teasing Rivers never a bad option.

1297
01:03:09,120 --> 01:03:11,480
Speaker 4: The one thing the Colts we talked about how how

1298
01:03:11,560 --> 01:03:15,000
Speaker 4: ridiculously soft the Steelers schedule is. By the way, since

1299
01:03:15,440 --> 01:03:18,720
Speaker 4: Carson Wentz is now benched and Hurts is technically the starter,

1300
01:03:19,280 --> 01:03:21,760
Speaker 4: and the Steelers are going to face Brandon Allen this week,

1301
01:03:22,160 --> 01:03:26,080
Speaker 4: that means this will be the eighth backup quarterback that

1302
01:03:26,120 --> 01:03:28,000
Speaker 4: the Steelers have faced in fourteen games.

1303
01:03:28,040 --> 01:03:29,280
Speaker 2: I mean, it's remarkable.

1304
01:03:29,720 --> 01:03:33,000
Speaker 4: But we talked about how easy the Steelers schedule has

1305
01:03:33,040 --> 01:03:36,040
Speaker 4: been at after last After this past week, the Colts

1306
01:03:36,040 --> 01:03:40,920
Speaker 4: have faced the easiest schedule of opposing defenses, and I

1307
01:03:41,000 --> 01:03:43,160
Speaker 4: can't figure out their offense. I mean, here, here's what

1308
01:03:43,240 --> 01:03:44,680
Speaker 4: they played, and it helps to be in that division

1309
01:03:44,680 --> 01:03:55,600
Speaker 4: of trash defenses Jags, Vikings, Jets, Browns, Bengals, Lions, Titans, Packers, Titans, Texans, Raiders,

1310
01:03:56,240 --> 01:03:59,360
Speaker 4: the only two above average defenses. Packers have it above

1311
01:03:59,360 --> 01:04:02,400
Speaker 4: average passy, but the only above our defenses they played

1312
01:04:02,800 --> 01:04:05,560
Speaker 4: are the Ravens, who didn't have Marlon Humphrey and they

1313
01:04:05,600 --> 01:04:10,040
Speaker 4: scored ten points at three point like three yards per

1314
01:04:10,040 --> 01:04:14,160
Speaker 4: play and the Bears, and they didn't do much against

1315
01:04:14,160 --> 01:04:17,160
Speaker 4: the Bears either, thirty five percent success rate against under

1316
01:04:17,160 --> 01:04:19,640
Speaker 4: four yards per play against both. So I do have

1317
01:04:19,680 --> 01:04:21,800
Speaker 4: questions about the offense. And it's not that Rivers has

1318
01:04:21,840 --> 01:04:24,360
Speaker 4: been bad. The running game hasn't been great. T Y

1319
01:04:24,440 --> 01:04:27,200
Speaker 4: Hilton is coming on, but it was against the Raiders,

1320
01:04:27,680 --> 01:04:30,320
Speaker 4: the Texans and the Titans, three teams without the secondary.

1321
01:04:30,880 --> 01:04:33,440
Speaker 4: But maybe he's getting healthier and he has had three

1322
01:04:33,520 --> 01:04:36,560
Speaker 4: big games in a row. But the offensive line just

1323
01:04:36,560 --> 01:04:38,160
Speaker 4: hasn't been as good as it was supposed to be

1324
01:04:38,240 --> 01:04:40,960
Speaker 4: coming into the year. That's hurt the run game. I

1325
01:04:40,960 --> 01:04:43,200
Speaker 4: think that's hurt the passing game. So I don't think

1326
01:04:43,240 --> 01:04:45,600
Speaker 4: that hurts them now. Guess what, They're playing another trash

1327
01:04:45,640 --> 01:04:47,760
Speaker 4: defense this week. But it's something to keep in mind

1328
01:04:47,760 --> 01:04:51,280
Speaker 4: for the playoffs. They played the Jags at home again.

1329
01:04:51,280 --> 01:04:52,920
Speaker 4: They still have left on their schedule somehow, but they

1330
01:04:52,960 --> 01:04:55,520
Speaker 4: do go to Pittsburgh next week. It's done to keep

1331
01:04:55,560 --> 01:04:57,320
Speaker 4: in mind whether or not you want to bet them

1332
01:04:57,320 --> 01:05:00,160
Speaker 4: next week for that game or just in the playoff,

1333
01:05:00,320 --> 01:05:02,560
Speaker 4: Like I want to see this team do something against

1334
01:05:02,680 --> 01:05:05,800
Speaker 4: a on offense against a good defense, especially because their

1335
01:05:05,880 --> 01:05:08,680
Speaker 4: defense has been slipping. Maybe it's variance, but over the

1336
01:05:08,720 --> 01:05:10,920
Speaker 4: first half, for the first six or seven weeks, there

1337
01:05:10,920 --> 01:05:13,160
Speaker 4: were number three in the NFL. Since then they were

1338
01:05:13,240 --> 01:05:16,600
Speaker 4: third worse in the NFL from an EPA perspective, So I.

1339
01:05:16,560 --> 01:05:17,600
Speaker 2: Do have some questions with the Colts.

1340
01:05:17,600 --> 01:05:20,560
Speaker 4: I'm trying to figure out who they are with a

1341
01:05:20,560 --> 01:05:22,720
Speaker 4: lot of moving pieces from a statistical point of view,

1342
01:05:22,760 --> 01:05:24,920
Speaker 4: but I don't think that hurts them this week against

1343
01:05:25,360 --> 01:05:28,120
Speaker 4: the Texans, but just something to keep in mind.

1344
01:05:28,240 --> 01:05:29,920
Speaker 2: So I don't disagree with that teas at all.

1345
01:05:30,200 --> 01:05:32,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Colts are another one of these teams that

1346
01:05:32,560 --> 01:05:34,640
Speaker 3: I think the schedule is going to create some value

1347
01:05:34,640 --> 01:05:36,680
Speaker 3: when we get to the playoffs betting against them. I mean,

1348
01:05:37,000 --> 01:05:38,600
Speaker 3: Rivers is not going to be able to play this

1349
01:05:38,680 --> 01:05:41,640
Speaker 3: well against defenses that can get more pressure or cover better.

1350
01:05:42,200 --> 01:05:44,360
Speaker 3: He's just limited at this stage in his career. And

1351
01:05:44,400 --> 01:05:47,200
Speaker 3: then the defense I think is pretty solid, but you

1352
01:05:47,200 --> 01:05:49,520
Speaker 3: do have some guys kind of playing a little bit

1353
01:05:49,560 --> 01:05:52,200
Speaker 3: above their head that could be exposed, like Xavier Rhoads

1354
01:05:52,400 --> 01:05:56,440
Speaker 3: kind of came on. And I think the Swippers lately's

1355
01:05:56,520 --> 01:05:59,240
Speaker 3: you know, Oka Riki has been hurt, Buttoner missed the

1356
01:05:59,280 --> 01:06:01,480
Speaker 3: game or two, Autry missed the game or two. They

1357
01:06:01,480 --> 01:06:04,400
Speaker 3: had some COVID situations. So yeah, it's hard to get

1358
01:06:04,400 --> 01:06:07,360
Speaker 3: a reh honest team, but they're definitely I don't think

1359
01:06:07,440 --> 01:06:10,040
Speaker 3: as good as what we've you know what we see

1360
01:06:10,080 --> 01:06:16,560
Speaker 3: on paper? All right, now, time for our money line

1361
01:06:16,640 --> 01:06:18,439
Speaker 3: Underdoug Parlay.

1362
01:06:21,000 --> 01:06:25,920
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1363
01:06:26,080 --> 01:06:27,400
Speaker 1: money line Parlay.

1364
01:06:28,360 --> 01:06:28,640
Speaker 2: All right?

1365
01:06:28,680 --> 01:06:32,640
Speaker 3: Stuck Washington dangerous team hit last week?

1366
01:06:32,680 --> 01:06:32,920
Speaker 2: For me?

1367
01:06:33,320 --> 01:06:35,040
Speaker 3: Who you going with this week?

1368
01:06:35,360 --> 01:06:35,600
Speaker 2: Yeah?

1369
01:06:35,640 --> 01:06:37,280
Speaker 4: To be fair, I was gonna go with the Broncos

1370
01:06:37,360 --> 01:06:39,600
Speaker 4: last week, but there wasn't a lineup, so I went

1371
01:06:39,640 --> 01:06:40,160
Speaker 4: with Cincy.

1372
01:06:40,480 --> 01:06:42,320
Speaker 2: That was good.

1373
01:06:42,440 --> 01:06:46,720
Speaker 4: This week, I'm going to go with I'm gonna go

1374
01:06:47,200 --> 01:06:49,880
Speaker 4: with Washington like you did last week. I think that

1375
01:06:49,880 --> 01:06:53,600
Speaker 4: there's some value in this line. Right now, the Washington defense,

1376
01:06:53,640 --> 01:06:56,000
Speaker 4: we know, is playing amazing. There are some major questions

1377
01:06:56,000 --> 01:06:59,440
Speaker 4: still with the Seattle offensive line that I think Washington

1378
01:06:59,520 --> 01:07:03,080
Speaker 4: might be able to to exploit. And there are questions

1379
01:07:03,080 --> 01:07:05,200
Speaker 4: on the Washington side with who's gonna play on offense?

1380
01:07:05,280 --> 01:07:08,280
Speaker 4: Right Like, is Alex Smith playing? He doesn't necessarily even great?

1381
01:07:08,360 --> 01:07:11,840
Speaker 4: But do you want Dwayne Hoskins in there? Antonio Gibson

1382
01:07:11,880 --> 01:07:15,200
Speaker 4: going to play one of their most electric playmakers all over.

1383
01:07:15,240 --> 01:07:17,560
Speaker 4: I mean, you have Terry mccorn, but they use Gibson.

1384
01:07:17,680 --> 01:07:19,720
Speaker 4: He's the most explosive running back. They use him out

1385
01:07:19,720 --> 01:07:20,479
Speaker 4: of the backfield in the passing.

1386
01:07:20,680 --> 01:07:21,360
Speaker 2: Is he going to play?

1387
01:07:21,800 --> 01:07:24,320
Speaker 4: I don't know even if he does, it's a toe.

1388
01:07:24,560 --> 01:07:26,160
Speaker 4: I know it sounds like, oh it's a toe. Those

1389
01:07:26,160 --> 01:07:27,040
Speaker 4: things are tough.

1390
01:07:26,800 --> 01:07:30,480
Speaker 2: And like it's they tend to linger and they tend

1391
01:07:30,800 --> 01:07:31,840
Speaker 2: they for me at least, you.

1392
01:07:31,800 --> 01:07:34,600
Speaker 4: Probably love more insight into this, especially since you project

1393
01:07:34,640 --> 01:07:38,240
Speaker 4: these project players each week. It's always dicey when someone

1394
01:07:38,280 --> 01:07:39,760
Speaker 4: has a toe because like they could go in one

1395
01:07:39,800 --> 01:07:41,320
Speaker 4: play and then they're they're out.

1396
01:07:42,520 --> 01:07:44,080
Speaker 2: You see them limp into the sidelines.

1397
01:07:44,560 --> 01:07:46,440
Speaker 4: So there's a lot of variants with like who's playing

1398
01:07:46,520 --> 01:07:50,840
Speaker 4: for Washington, which is making a hesitant the side. But

1399
01:07:51,040 --> 01:07:54,400
Speaker 4: with that variance in this line steaming up to Seattle,

1400
01:07:54,600 --> 01:07:56,440
Speaker 4: I think it's a good spot to take a flyer

1401
01:07:57,000 --> 01:07:58,520
Speaker 4: on Washington and that defense.

1402
01:07:59,320 --> 01:08:02,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, from a just in terms of the toe injuries,

1403
01:08:02,120 --> 01:08:05,040
Speaker 3: you see about about a twenty percent different production from

1404
01:08:05,360 --> 01:08:07,440
Speaker 3: running backs. Now that includes you know, you're gonna have

1405
01:08:07,440 --> 01:08:10,360
Speaker 3: guys that, just like you said, go out early in

1406
01:08:10,360 --> 01:08:13,520
Speaker 3: the game after playing through that that questionable tag or whatever.

1407
01:08:13,560 --> 01:08:16,640
Speaker 3: But yeah, I think Washington I said this, you know

1408
01:08:16,720 --> 01:08:19,160
Speaker 3: in my NFC East piece, They're gonna be a dangerous

1409
01:08:19,160 --> 01:08:21,439
Speaker 3: team for the rest of the year. I think because

1410
01:08:21,760 --> 01:08:24,439
Speaker 3: they're motivated. I think that Pittsburgh win gave them a

1411
01:08:24,439 --> 01:08:27,680
Speaker 3: lot of confidence and they kind of have that emotional

1412
01:08:28,400 --> 01:08:33,599
Speaker 3: boost from you know, Ron Rivera fighting cancer. They battle back.

1413
01:08:33,720 --> 01:08:33,880
Speaker 2: You know.

1414
01:08:33,960 --> 01:08:35,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just think it's going to be a dangerous

1415
01:08:35,840 --> 01:08:38,200
Speaker 3: team and not a team that you really want to

1416
01:08:38,240 --> 01:08:40,240
Speaker 3: be betting against that at any point. Now, I do.

1417
01:08:40,360 --> 01:08:42,559
Speaker 3: I get that, Like, if it's if it's Haskins in there,

1418
01:08:42,600 --> 01:08:44,920
Speaker 3: then it's tough to say, Okay, we're gonna bet on

1419
01:08:44,920 --> 01:08:49,639
Speaker 3: Haskins against Russell Wilson. But I think this Washington team

1420
01:08:49,720 --> 01:08:51,680
Speaker 3: is you know, they're the team that's going to be

1421
01:08:51,760 --> 01:08:54,360
Speaker 3: dangerous down the stretch. And you know, you look at

1422
01:08:54,520 --> 01:08:56,280
Speaker 3: what they did on defense last week. I mean, Chase

1423
01:08:56,320 --> 01:08:58,400
Speaker 3: Young just completely took over the game. And these are

1424
01:08:58,400 --> 01:09:00,679
Speaker 3: the type of teams that Seattle's been having they're in

1425
01:09:00,720 --> 01:09:02,679
Speaker 3: trouble with. You know, teams that are that can play

1426
01:09:02,720 --> 01:09:06,519
Speaker 3: well on defense and keep Seattle's scoring in check. Then

1427
01:09:06,680 --> 01:09:10,120
Speaker 3: then you're in the game with Seattle. And Seattle's defense has, yes,

1428
01:09:10,160 --> 01:09:13,360
Speaker 3: they've been improved, but you know, once you're talking about

1429
01:09:13,400 --> 01:09:15,720
Speaker 3: a low scoring game, it could go either way. So

1430
01:09:16,040 --> 01:09:17,960
Speaker 3: and Seattle still does rely on throwing it down the

1431
01:09:18,040 --> 01:09:20,240
Speaker 3: field so they can make some mistakes. So yeah, I

1432
01:09:20,240 --> 01:09:22,639
Speaker 3: think Washington is a threat to win this game. Obviously,

1433
01:09:22,720 --> 01:09:27,000
Speaker 3: minsor the quarterback situation Alex Smith, I think is still

1434
01:09:27,000 --> 01:09:31,519
Speaker 3: a lot more ideal than Haskins. For my money, wine dog,

1435
01:09:31,880 --> 01:09:33,800
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go to the Patriots. You know, I was

1436
01:09:34,040 --> 01:09:37,720
Speaker 3: thinking about the Bears here, but thinking more about it

1437
01:09:37,920 --> 01:09:40,280
Speaker 3: the Patriots. I expect them to win this game. They're

1438
01:09:40,320 --> 01:09:44,200
Speaker 3: not a big dog plus one twenty, but this is

1439
01:09:44,240 --> 01:09:47,200
Speaker 3: a perfect spot. You broke it down, stuck, going against

1440
01:09:47,200 --> 01:09:50,760
Speaker 3: a rookie quarterback, coming off some long prep, and going

1441
01:09:50,800 --> 01:09:53,800
Speaker 3: against you know, a coach that they're very familiar with.

1442
01:09:53,880 --> 01:09:57,880
Speaker 3: I think as an underdog, the value is on New England. Here,

1443
01:09:57,960 --> 01:10:01,679
Speaker 3: a very winnable game for them. All right, let's get

1444
01:10:01,680 --> 01:10:04,679
Speaker 3: into the best of the rest, which are the games

1445
01:10:04,720 --> 01:10:08,400
Speaker 3: that we did not discuss in any other segment. First up,

1446
01:10:08,560 --> 01:10:11,439
Speaker 3: we have the Chiefs going to New Orleans. Chiefs are

1447
01:10:11,479 --> 01:10:14,360
Speaker 3: three point favorites. This should be the game of the week. Stuck.

1448
01:10:14,400 --> 01:10:15,479
Speaker 3: Any thoughts on this one?

1449
01:10:15,720 --> 01:10:18,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, Again, this comes down to the quarterback. It's very

1450
01:10:18,400 --> 01:10:21,439
Speaker 4: hard for me to project. Now there's look, the Chiefs

1451
01:10:21,479 --> 01:10:23,880
Speaker 4: haven't covered their own five, they gets to spread their

1452
01:10:23,920 --> 01:10:25,760
Speaker 4: last five. Now they won all those games, but there

1453
01:10:25,960 --> 01:10:27,439
Speaker 4: some of the games are coming out a little flat.

1454
01:10:27,479 --> 01:10:28,760
Speaker 4: Some of them are allowing teams to get in the

1455
01:10:28,800 --> 01:10:32,120
Speaker 4: back door. This game is essentially meaningless to the Chiefs,

1456
01:10:32,160 --> 01:10:34,360
Speaker 4: so I'm curious to see what they're.

1457
01:10:34,160 --> 01:10:35,719
Speaker 2: Going to do from a play calling perspective.

1458
01:10:35,760 --> 01:10:39,160
Speaker 4: Do they keep it more conservative, because look, if they lose,

1459
01:10:39,680 --> 01:10:41,960
Speaker 4: I shouldn't say it's meaningless. If they win this game

1460
01:10:42,000 --> 01:10:44,400
Speaker 4: and then the Steelers lose to the Bengals are cold

1461
01:10:44,439 --> 01:10:46,360
Speaker 4: taken rest starter this week seventeen. But this is an

1462
01:10:46,479 --> 01:10:50,160
Speaker 4: NFC game. If the Chiefs lose this game, as long

1463
01:10:50,200 --> 01:10:52,120
Speaker 4: as they beat the Falcons and the Chargers at home,

1464
01:10:52,160 --> 01:10:54,120
Speaker 4: then in the year they have the one seed. So

1465
01:10:54,760 --> 01:10:57,920
Speaker 4: there's the offensive line injuries that the Chiefs are dealing with,

1466
01:10:57,960 --> 01:10:59,680
Speaker 4: and that is the way to beat Mahomes. You have

1467
01:10:59,720 --> 01:11:03,400
Speaker 4: to get pressure without blitzing, and the Saints can do that.

1468
01:11:03,720 --> 01:11:06,280
Speaker 4: They have plenty of good players off of the edge.

1469
01:11:06,360 --> 01:11:09,280
Speaker 4: They have good into your defensive linemen. They can get

1470
01:11:09,280 --> 01:11:12,040
Speaker 4: pressure without without having to rely on the blitz and

1471
01:11:12,080 --> 01:11:15,360
Speaker 4: they don't. This defense has been playing as one of

1472
01:11:15,400 --> 01:11:17,960
Speaker 4: the best units in the NFL all year long, and

1473
01:11:18,080 --> 01:11:20,639
Speaker 4: we know the Saints offense is the best in the league.

1474
01:11:20,680 --> 01:11:23,760
Speaker 4: We'll go too deep there. You do have a Saint

1475
01:11:23,800 --> 01:11:26,200
Speaker 4: secondary that's jackal and Hyde. So is it going to

1476
01:11:26,280 --> 01:11:28,160
Speaker 4: be the really good Saint secretary? Is it going to

1477
01:11:28,240 --> 01:11:30,760
Speaker 4: be the disappointing Saint secondary.

1478
01:11:30,960 --> 01:11:32,280
Speaker 2: Your guess is as good as mine.

1479
01:11:32,479 --> 01:11:34,840
Speaker 4: But they where this game will be decided on is

1480
01:11:35,400 --> 01:11:38,840
Speaker 4: what will the Saints offense look like? Here's what if

1481
01:11:39,080 --> 01:11:41,960
Speaker 4: Drew Brees plays and is healthy. We don't know if

1482
01:11:41,960 --> 01:11:44,000
Speaker 4: he's healthy, but I.

1483
01:11:43,320 --> 01:11:45,160
Speaker 2: Assume the Saints are won.

1484
01:11:45,400 --> 01:11:46,960
Speaker 4: The Saints are tied with the Packers, with the Packers

1485
01:11:46,960 --> 01:11:49,599
Speaker 4: have beat them, the Packers have an easier schedule the Ones.

1486
01:11:49,640 --> 01:11:53,519
Speaker 4: He doesn't look great for them, so maybe they're I

1487
01:11:53,520 --> 01:11:56,000
Speaker 4: wouldn't think that they would rush Brees back with if

1488
01:11:56,040 --> 01:12:00,519
Speaker 4: he's not fully healthy, with his lungs and broken ribs.

1489
01:12:01,360 --> 01:12:04,200
Speaker 4: If he plays and he's healthy, I make this line.

1490
01:12:04,800 --> 01:12:07,679
Speaker 4: Is that the Saints right now the number two team

1491
01:12:07,680 --> 01:12:10,920
Speaker 4: in the NFL power ratings wise. I make this line

1492
01:12:10,960 --> 01:12:14,439
Speaker 4: one point seven to one point eight. If Breeze plays

1493
01:12:14,800 --> 01:12:18,200
Speaker 4: and is healthy, he does not, and Taysom Hill plays,

1494
01:12:18,439 --> 01:12:22,120
Speaker 4: I make this line around four four point two, so

1495
01:12:22,160 --> 01:12:25,160
Speaker 4: you can see my difference between them. As at this point,

1496
01:12:25,200 --> 01:12:27,320
Speaker 4: it's a little less than a field goal. If they

1497
01:12:27,360 --> 01:12:29,320
Speaker 4: decide to go with Winston because they want to throw

1498
01:12:29,360 --> 01:12:32,800
Speaker 4: it and Hill has shown who he is, I make

1499
01:12:32,800 --> 01:12:35,439
Speaker 4: the line around three. So Winston plays, no play. If

1500
01:12:35,439 --> 01:12:37,639
Speaker 4: Breeze plays, and I assume he's healthy, I like the Saints,

1501
01:12:38,040 --> 01:12:40,599
Speaker 4: although I do think if Hill plays, and I would

1502
01:12:40,600 --> 01:12:42,800
Speaker 4: say chances are that that's probably the route they go

1503
01:12:42,880 --> 01:12:43,639
Speaker 4: as of right now.

1504
01:12:44,280 --> 01:12:45,600
Speaker 2: There are some things that the Saints can do.

1505
01:12:45,640 --> 01:12:48,240
Speaker 4: They might just go completely run heavy, using Hill a

1506
01:12:48,280 --> 01:12:51,160
Speaker 4: lot to run it, control the clock against Kansas City's

1507
01:12:51,160 --> 01:12:54,519
Speaker 4: bad run defense, Keith Mahomes on the sidelines, and shorten

1508
01:12:54,600 --> 01:12:56,960
Speaker 4: this game. That's one route they could go, and he'll

1509
01:12:57,040 --> 01:12:58,639
Speaker 4: with his skill set running the ball.

1510
01:12:58,520 --> 01:12:59,840
Speaker 2: He could have some success here.

1511
01:13:00,320 --> 01:13:03,240
Speaker 4: So there's just a lot of moving parts here with

1512
01:13:03,280 --> 01:13:06,360
Speaker 4: who's going to play quarterback for the Saints, depending on

1513
01:13:06,400 --> 01:13:08,559
Speaker 4: which of the three. I don't even know if Winston

1514
01:13:08,600 --> 01:13:10,920
Speaker 4: even has a prayer, but would he It would decide

1515
01:13:10,960 --> 01:13:14,519
Speaker 4: whether I like the Chiefs, the Saints or a pass.

1516
01:13:14,760 --> 01:13:17,240
Speaker 3: I think the Saints can like this is even with Hill.

1517
01:13:17,240 --> 01:13:19,040
Speaker 3: I agree. I think this is like a sneaky upset

1518
01:13:19,040 --> 01:13:22,360
Speaker 3: spot for the Saints. Sean Payton coming off a loss,

1519
01:13:22,360 --> 01:13:25,160
Speaker 3: you know he'll have this team prepared. He's forty six

1520
01:13:25,240 --> 01:13:27,320
Speaker 3: and twenty five against the spread coming off a lost

1521
01:13:27,320 --> 01:13:32,160
Speaker 3: sixty five percent. The Saints are also a stay hit

1522
01:13:32,200 --> 01:13:35,120
Speaker 3: at seventy five percent nine to three against spread as

1523
01:13:35,160 --> 01:13:37,599
Speaker 3: a home dog under Sean Payton. It hasn't happened Austin,

1524
01:13:38,240 --> 01:13:40,000
Speaker 3: so this is a This is kind of a spot

1525
01:13:40,040 --> 01:13:43,479
Speaker 3: where it hasn't been smart to bet against Sean Payton,

1526
01:13:43,520 --> 01:13:46,120
Speaker 3: so this is probably not It's probably Saints or nothing

1527
01:13:46,160 --> 01:13:48,880
Speaker 3: for me. Either way. This could also be a sneaky

1528
01:13:48,920 --> 01:13:52,400
Speaker 3: undergame if if Hill indeed goes and it looks like

1529
01:13:52,400 --> 01:13:54,920
Speaker 3: Breeze isn't gonna go. And I think they said Winston

1530
01:13:54,960 --> 01:13:57,120
Speaker 3: would get like a long term look, you know, in

1531
01:13:57,120 --> 01:13:58,840
Speaker 3: the future, but I don't think that had anything to

1532
01:13:58,840 --> 01:14:00,880
Speaker 3: do with this week. So it looks like it's going

1533
01:14:00,920 --> 01:14:05,040
Speaker 3: to be Taysom. The next game we have up here

1534
01:14:05,120 --> 01:14:08,360
Speaker 3: is the Jags plus twelve and a half at Baltimore. Baltimore.

1535
01:14:08,600 --> 01:14:12,360
Speaker 3: Baltimore just put wide receivers Marquise Brown, Miles Boykin, and

1536
01:14:12,520 --> 01:14:15,920
Speaker 3: James Prochet, who also returns punts for them on the

1537
01:14:16,040 --> 01:14:19,679
Speaker 3: COVID nineteen list. Not sure if these guys are definitely

1538
01:14:19,720 --> 01:14:21,800
Speaker 3: going to miss or they're just close contacts and could

1539
01:14:21,800 --> 01:14:25,400
Speaker 3: be cleared at this point as we record, But thoughts

1540
01:14:25,439 --> 01:14:26,599
Speaker 3: on this one stuck.

1541
01:14:27,000 --> 01:14:28,559
Speaker 4: Yeah, I got to wait to see on the COVID

1542
01:14:28,560 --> 01:14:31,040
Speaker 4: news and I've been on the surface. I made this

1543
01:14:31,120 --> 01:14:35,080
Speaker 4: line around thirteen thirteen and a half. The Jags are terrible.

1544
01:14:36,160 --> 01:14:37,120
Speaker 4: The Ravens should be able to.

1545
01:14:37,120 --> 01:14:37,920
Speaker 2: Run the ball on them.

1546
01:14:39,479 --> 01:14:42,920
Speaker 4: I don't know if there's much Jacksonville can do, although

1547
01:14:42,920 --> 01:14:46,439
Speaker 4: there's some injuries to watch on Baltimore's secondaries. Well, they

1548
01:14:46,439 --> 01:14:48,599
Speaker 4: also could be a little flat to short week after

1549
01:14:48,640 --> 01:14:53,000
Speaker 4: that basically see season saving win. So I would have

1550
01:14:53,000 --> 01:14:55,160
Speaker 4: shopped me if Jacksonville gets in the back door here

1551
01:14:55,240 --> 01:14:57,160
Speaker 4: or the Ravens just do enough to win by seven

1552
01:14:57,200 --> 01:14:59,320
Speaker 4: to ten. No would have shop me at the Jags

1553
01:14:59,320 --> 01:15:02,000
Speaker 4: get blown out. So there's a lot of things to

1554
01:15:02,040 --> 01:15:06,160
Speaker 4: monitor here from injurying COVID situation for Baltimore. But it's

1555
01:15:06,200 --> 01:15:08,960
Speaker 4: hard to see myself having a position in this game.

1556
01:15:09,520 --> 01:15:11,720
Speaker 3: And then we have the books as five and a

1557
01:15:11,760 --> 01:15:14,400
Speaker 3: half point favorites over the Atlanta Falcons.

1558
01:15:14,720 --> 01:15:18,759
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is I see value in the Falcons, especially

1559
01:15:18,760 --> 01:15:22,120
Speaker 4: if you can get six. But it's I mean, the

1560
01:15:22,160 --> 01:15:24,960
Speaker 4: Falcons in the red zone woes and is Julio Jones

1561
01:15:24,960 --> 01:15:27,439
Speaker 4: gonna play? I mean, the difference between Wilio Jones playing

1562
01:15:28,200 --> 01:15:30,960
Speaker 4: and not with that offense is enormous, and I need

1563
01:15:30,960 --> 01:15:33,200
Speaker 4: to know that he's fully healthy to back Atlanta here

1564
01:15:33,920 --> 01:15:38,360
Speaker 4: to keep up with Tampa. So ultimately, especially they're gonna

1565
01:15:38,360 --> 01:15:41,320
Speaker 4: be settling for field goals all day. Value here is

1566
01:15:41,320 --> 01:15:45,160
Speaker 4: with the Falcons. I don't know where this team is

1567
01:15:45,200 --> 01:15:49,760
Speaker 4: at mentally after last week too. It's a divisional game.

1568
01:15:49,760 --> 01:15:52,320
Speaker 4: I'm sure they'll probably be up for it, but I

1569
01:15:52,400 --> 01:15:54,400
Speaker 4: see more reasons to not bet this game than to

1570
01:15:54,439 --> 01:15:57,479
Speaker 4: bet it. Maybe this line goes crazy and it gets

1571
01:15:57,520 --> 01:15:59,919
Speaker 4: the seven, then obviously I would I would take Atlanta,

1572
01:16:00,760 --> 01:16:02,680
Speaker 4: but I do see a small bit of value at

1573
01:16:02,720 --> 01:16:06,640
Speaker 4: six on the Falcons. But I mean, Julio is just

1574
01:16:06,640 --> 01:16:10,160
Speaker 4: so important from you just look at the yards per

1575
01:16:10,240 --> 01:16:13,320
Speaker 4: route run. I mean, the guy who's he's run. Look

1576
01:16:13,360 --> 01:16:15,400
Speaker 4: call Biggie is and he ran like a four three forty.

1577
01:16:15,479 --> 01:16:18,160
Speaker 4: That's not fair. He's You're not supposed to be that good. Obviously,

1578
01:16:18,160 --> 01:16:20,160
Speaker 4: he's probably gonna go in the downward trajectory soon. But

1579
01:16:20,720 --> 01:16:22,439
Speaker 4: if you have him and Ridley out there, the offense,

1580
01:16:22,439 --> 01:16:24,120
Speaker 4: it's just the offense is so much different, and I

1581
01:16:24,160 --> 01:16:25,920
Speaker 4: don't I don't have any confidence that he's going to

1582
01:16:25,960 --> 01:16:28,960
Speaker 4: play this weekend or be out there for the entire game.

1583
01:16:29,640 --> 01:16:31,760
Speaker 2: The Falcons are done. I mean, I'm sure they're not

1584
01:16:31,800 --> 01:16:34,400
Speaker 2: going to try and force anything with them, So maybe

1585
01:16:34,439 --> 01:16:35,080
Speaker 2: a pass here.

1586
01:16:35,680 --> 01:16:37,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm showing some value on the Falcons as well,

1587
01:16:37,960 --> 01:16:40,559
Speaker 3: but it does look like Julio's week to week, so

1588
01:16:40,680 --> 01:16:43,800
Speaker 3: that that's not ideal. Uh don't really, like you said,

1589
01:16:43,800 --> 01:16:46,639
Speaker 3: set it back the Pats here, So probably a stay

1590
01:16:46,640 --> 01:16:49,000
Speaker 3: away could be a sneaky undergame. The Falcons defense still

1591
01:16:49,439 --> 01:16:52,400
Speaker 3: holding opponents in the twenties, so you know, if you

1592
01:16:52,439 --> 01:16:55,400
Speaker 3: expect the Bucks to win and expect the Falcons defense

1593
01:16:55,439 --> 01:16:58,160
Speaker 3: to hold the opponent in the twenties, you're probably not

1594
01:16:58,200 --> 01:17:02,679
Speaker 3: getting to total of fish and a half. So yeah,

1595
01:17:02,720 --> 01:17:06,720
Speaker 3: so that might be the play here, especially if no Julio.

1596
01:17:07,360 --> 01:17:10,160
Speaker 3: All Right, that wraps it up for the best of

1597
01:17:10,200 --> 01:17:12,200
Speaker 3: the rest. Let's get into our Survivor pool Pick of.

1598
01:17:12,200 --> 01:17:20,360
Speaker 2: The week one pick one chance to advance Survivor.

1599
01:17:21,479 --> 01:17:25,639
Speaker 3: All Right, it's week fifteen. We've both lost numerous times

1600
01:17:25,680 --> 01:17:28,559
Speaker 3: already this year. But if you had to take a

1601
01:17:28,720 --> 01:17:31,760
Speaker 3: Survivor team for this week, where are you going?

1602
01:17:32,880 --> 01:17:35,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean when I did my Survivor thanks Dolphins

1603
01:17:36,160 --> 01:17:38,479
Speaker 4: beating the Niners. When I mapped out my whole year,

1604
01:17:38,880 --> 01:17:40,439
Speaker 4: my reason was I wanted to be one of the

1605
01:17:40,479 --> 01:17:43,200
Speaker 4: few left standing and then have the Ravens when I

1606
01:17:43,240 --> 01:17:46,760
Speaker 4: assume not many people would for this week. Now, if

1607
01:17:46,800 --> 01:17:48,760
Speaker 4: you have the Rams, you're in good shape too. You

1608
01:17:48,760 --> 01:17:51,000
Speaker 4: can still use them. But yeah, I haven't used the

1609
01:17:51,080 --> 01:17:53,759
Speaker 4: Ravens yet, and this was the week. The whole reason

1610
01:17:53,800 --> 01:17:56,200
Speaker 4: why I wanted to save the Ravens all the way

1611
01:17:56,280 --> 01:17:58,760
Speaker 4: until the end of the year, so I would use

1612
01:17:58,800 --> 01:17:59,479
Speaker 4: the Ravens here.

1613
01:17:59,760 --> 01:18:03,439
Speaker 3: Yeah. Same, that's kind of the slams up matchup. Just hope,

1614
01:18:03,640 --> 01:18:08,479
Speaker 3: hope that nobody no, no more further COVID shenanigans go

1615
01:18:08,600 --> 01:18:10,679
Speaker 3: down with the team. But as of now, it looks

1616
01:18:10,720 --> 01:18:13,320
Speaker 3: like you just have the three receivers on the list,

1617
01:18:13,439 --> 01:18:16,240
Speaker 3: So not a reason to panic yet. I mean, losing

1618
01:18:16,280 --> 01:18:19,000
Speaker 3: Brown for the game would hurt a bit, but this

1619
01:18:19,120 --> 01:18:22,360
Speaker 3: is still a Jaguars team that's going to be vulnerable

1620
01:18:22,479 --> 01:18:24,880
Speaker 3: on defense, and they do have Mark Andrews back so

1621
01:18:25,160 --> 01:18:28,200
Speaker 3: shouldn't be too big of a loss even if he sits.

1622
01:18:28,240 --> 01:18:31,960
Speaker 3: But yeah, like the Ravens for this week, that's going

1623
01:18:32,040 --> 01:18:35,280
Speaker 3: to do it. For this week's Action Network NFL podcast,

1624
01:18:35,280 --> 01:18:38,200
Speaker 3: you can fill Stucky on the Action Network app at

1625
01:18:38,200 --> 01:18:41,160
Speaker 3: Stucky two and me at Chris Raymond. Can find us

1626
01:18:41,479 --> 01:18:44,160
Speaker 3: on Twitter at the same handles. Be sure to check

1627
01:18:44,160 --> 01:18:48,120
Speaker 3: out Actionnetwork dot com for all of our betting and

1628
01:18:48,320 --> 01:18:53,759
Speaker 3: fantasy football content. Already mentioned, but big podcast schedule coming

1629
01:18:53,840 --> 01:18:58,120
Speaker 3: up to end the year. We'll have the of course

1630
01:18:58,160 --> 01:19:00,800
Speaker 3: these episodes. Next Wednesday, will also have our Christmas NBA

1631
01:19:00,880 --> 01:19:05,240
Speaker 3: betting episode. New NBA episodes every week in January and

1632
01:19:05,280 --> 01:19:07,599
Speaker 3: between now and New Year's Eves, Stuck in Colin will

1633
01:19:07,640 --> 01:19:11,160
Speaker 3: be doing their college football bowl game betting previews, with

1634
01:19:11,240 --> 01:19:14,120
Speaker 3: four episodes breaking down how to bet every single bowl game,

1635
01:19:14,560 --> 01:19:17,599
Speaker 3: so stay tuned for those. Of course, the Fantasy Flex

1636
01:19:17,880 --> 01:19:20,280
Speaker 3: for those of you guys in the playoffs that's still

1637
01:19:20,400 --> 01:19:24,160
Speaker 3: out every Wednesday. Check that out as well, and good

1638
01:19:24,280 --> 01:19:41,360
Speaker 3: luck this weekend. Let's get this money.

1639
01:19:42,280 --> 01:19:43,360
Speaker 2: We're finished talking