WEBVTT - Why Are Chocolate Prices Going Up And Up And Up?

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<v Speaker 1>From Bloomberg News. I'm Jennifer's Abisaga and this is the

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<v Speaker 1>very first episode of the Next Africa Podcast, your weekly

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<v Speaker 1>dive into business stories from across the continent. I am

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<v Speaker 1>really excited to bring you this brand new podcast from money,

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<v Speaker 1>politics and economy, to technology and even fashion and sports.

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<v Speaker 1>Each week with one Bloomberg reporter or multiple, we're going

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<v Speaker 1>to be lifting the lid on the news driving Africa.

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<v Speaker 1>For our first episode, we're going to be talking about

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<v Speaker 1>one of my favorite topics and indulgences chocolate. Okay, delectly

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<v Speaker 1>doing chocolates and carols like creamy chocolate. Who is that

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<v Speaker 1>is enough?

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<v Speaker 2>Good Year? Anyone out a tast sensation rich, luxurious, unique.

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<v Speaker 1>You're assessably smooth chocolate put the world on pause. It's

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<v Speaker 1>hard to find someone who is not a fan of chocolate.

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<v Speaker 1>We all love it in so many different forms, from

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<v Speaker 1>kit Kats to Mars or Cadburry, take your pick. But

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<v Speaker 1>everywhere we go, companies are increasing the cost of your

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<v Speaker 1>favorite chocolate bars and products. But what's the reason behind

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<v Speaker 1>it and what does it mean for the overall industry.

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<v Speaker 1>That's something we are going to talk about today on

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<v Speaker 1>the podcast with momby guitar. Hey, moobooy, how are you?

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<v Speaker 3>I'm good.

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<v Speaker 1>Hi. You are the best positioned person I think in

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<v Speaker 1>our newsroom to be speaking about this, because you're our

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<v Speaker 1>soft commodities reporter. Are you just eating all day?

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<v Speaker 3>I am not eating all day volvos. I don't think

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<v Speaker 3>i'd be standing here.

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<v Speaker 1>You know. We brought you on because what we've been

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<v Speaker 1>covering across Bloomberg platforms for the past few weeks is

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<v Speaker 1>just the skyrocketing price of Coco right now. I just

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<v Speaker 1>saw a banner that said logo for Coco. I feel

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<v Speaker 1>like everybody is logo for Coco right now because now

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<v Speaker 1>it's more expensor the likes of copper. Coco has exceeded

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<v Speaker 1>nine thousand dollars for the first time ever as global

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<v Speaker 1>supplies order just grip the market. Why are you stop

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<v Speaker 1>piling chocolate? Do you really think that it's going to

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<v Speaker 1>get that much worse out there? Are you surprised by

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<v Speaker 1>what we're saying?

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<v Speaker 3>No, I'm not surprised. And it almost feels like everywhere

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<v Speaker 3>I turn in this newsroom, everyone is asking me what's

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<v Speaker 3>happening to the price of Coco? But it's was expected.

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<v Speaker 3>Everyone you speak to the trader say we were going

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<v Speaker 3>to get here. But it's also fascinating the pace at

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<v Speaker 3>t Whitich we've gotten here. In just a span of

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<v Speaker 3>three months, prices have doubled. We started the year at

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<v Speaker 3>four thousand dollars a ton. It's a vertical rise. It

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<v Speaker 3>almost looks like a rocket launch. I think that's been

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<v Speaker 3>the most fascinating thing about the ratley in the cocoa market.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's just take a step back and try to contextualize

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<v Speaker 1>how we got here. As somebody who's been watching these

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<v Speaker 1>commodities for quite a while, where should we start.

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<v Speaker 3>We should start from West Africa. So in West Africa

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<v Speaker 3>we have every coast and Ghana. They are the biggest

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<v Speaker 3>producers of coco, and just West Africa alone accounts for

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<v Speaker 3>seventy five percent of global production of coco. So without

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<v Speaker 3>West Africa, we would basically not have coco or chocolate

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<v Speaker 3>in the world. The rest comes from Latin America, so

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<v Speaker 3>that accounts for about twenty five percent. And I was

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<v Speaker 3>in West Africa about three months ago. I think we

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<v Speaker 3>had started to see that there's a problem there, and

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<v Speaker 3>back then prices were not shooting as much as they

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<v Speaker 3>are right now, and as they went through the fields.

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<v Speaker 3>You could see fields that were flooded, that's because of rains.

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<v Speaker 3>You could see sick trees. We went to a farm

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<v Speaker 3>where half the plantation had sick trees that were infected

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<v Speaker 3>with either black pod or stall enshoot. So it's just

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<v Speaker 3>a perfect storm of things. We've had climate change, you

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<v Speaker 3>have diseases, and then the top that is farmers have

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<v Speaker 3>been paid poorly for the last forty years, and so

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<v Speaker 3>if you're not well paid, you don't invest back into

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<v Speaker 3>your farm. And we've had high inflation in the last

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<v Speaker 3>two years, so farmers have not been able to afford

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<v Speaker 3>fertilizers chemicals to tackle diseases. As you can imagine, lack

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<v Speaker 3>of investment on anything means that investment will not succeed.

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<v Speaker 3>So it's the lack of pay for farmers, diseases, climate

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<v Speaker 3>change just the perfect storm that the cocoa market needed

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<v Speaker 3>for us to have a deficit.

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<v Speaker 1>Is this a uniquely West African problem or is it

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<v Speaker 1>something that we are seeing in other parts of the world.

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<v Speaker 3>It's a uniquely West African problem because West Africa has

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<v Speaker 3>been the sole producer of cocoa, so they have many

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<v Speaker 3>trees and the problem is that some of those trees

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<v Speaker 3>are aging. As you know, as you get older, you

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<v Speaker 3>become less bread active, and so is that tree, even

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<v Speaker 3>cocoa tree. As the longer it takes it's in the farm,

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<v Speaker 3>the less productive it gets. So in Latin America we're

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<v Speaker 3>having them plant more neu trees. We have new plantations there,

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<v Speaker 3>so they're a bit more productive. I'd call them useful trees,

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<v Speaker 3>whereas in West Africa we have old trees. Because of that,

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<v Speaker 3>West Africa's production is falling and now the world is

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<v Speaker 3>going to have a third day of deficit. What that

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<v Speaker 3>means is that we're consuming more chocolate than we are

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<v Speaker 3>producing coco.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean it is eating less chocolate. Really the solution

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<v Speaker 1>here for consumers.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't know if you're like me, but every time

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<v Speaker 3>I go to the supermarket and I go to the

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<v Speaker 3>chocolate aisle, I cover the market so I know what's coming,

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<v Speaker 3>I know why price is arising. But when I look

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<v Speaker 3>at that cost, I'm thinking to myself, do I buy carrots,

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<v Speaker 3>do I buy chocolate?

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<v Speaker 1>And what to do?

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<v Speaker 3>I'm assuming chocolate chocolate, But then the next day I'll

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<v Speaker 3>take carrots, which is much cheaper, so I'm having to

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<v Speaker 3>trade off and so that's a choice that consumers will

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<v Speaker 3>have to make. Companies will still have to buy Coco

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<v Speaker 3>to meet their products and to be able to supply

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<v Speaker 3>their consumers with their favorite chocolates. And I don't think

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<v Speaker 3>there's a way around it, as these costs will have

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<v Speaker 3>to be passed on to consumers. And we had the

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<v Speaker 3>Mondolist chairman and CEO speak on Bloomback TV the other

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<v Speaker 3>day about this.

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<v Speaker 2>Our input costs keeps from going up. Some are flats

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<v Speaker 2>are coming down, but Coco, sugar in fact also and

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<v Speaker 2>hazelnuts are the ones that are going quite high, and

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<v Speaker 2>they're important in our products. So we unfortunately have to

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<v Speaker 2>increase prices.

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<v Speaker 1>Again.

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<v Speaker 3>They say the QRE four high prices is high prices,

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<v Speaker 3>and you have to come to a point where these

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<v Speaker 3>high prices bring down demand significantly that prices come down,

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<v Speaker 3>so it will be less demand that will bring prices

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<v Speaker 3>back to the point of equilibrium. Otherwise, if we continue

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<v Speaker 3>to eat more chocolate, then prices continue to go up.

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<v Speaker 1>So maybe is this going to start eroding the bottom

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<v Speaker 1>line of some of these companies to the point where

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<v Speaker 1>they may even start rethinking how much exposure their portfolios

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<v Speaker 1>actually have to chocolate.

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<v Speaker 3>What the companies are trying to do fast is to

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<v Speaker 3>cut production costs. We've seen companies that have started laying

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<v Speaker 3>off some of their stuff that they think they can

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<v Speaker 3>do without because they're automating more. We've seen companies consider

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<v Speaker 3>closures or factories that they think are too expensive to run,

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<v Speaker 3>either because they've been there for too long and therefore

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<v Speaker 3>running them is a lot more expensive, so they'll consider

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<v Speaker 3>cutting production costs to where they can, and then in

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<v Speaker 3>the long run, they will try and push products that

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<v Speaker 3>have less cocoa in them, or try and push products

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<v Speaker 3>that do not cut into their bottom line to make

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<v Speaker 3>sure that they are still running. Some of these companies

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<v Speaker 3>don't just thrive on cocoa alone or on chocolate. They

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<v Speaker 3>have other products on their portfolio, so they might try

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<v Speaker 3>to push consumers to buy those cheaper products as they

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<v Speaker 3>wait for cocoa prices to come down. That's if they

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<v Speaker 3>will ever come down to levels that we've seen before.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, and membe that's on the end of the supply chain.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's just start at the beginning with the actual cocoa farmers.

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<v Speaker 1>How is this all affecting them? Because you mentioned this

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<v Speaker 1>has been slow and steady getting to this point. But

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<v Speaker 1>where are they at right now?

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<v Speaker 3>I think farmers are looking at the rally, or they're

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<v Speaker 3>probably hearing about the rally in the prices and they're wondering,

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<v Speaker 3>when are we going to greap benefits of this. So

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<v Speaker 3>farmers in Cameroon, in Nigeria, in other parts of the

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<v Speaker 3>world that are more liberalized are realizing the benefits of

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<v Speaker 3>this rally. But farmers in Ivory Coast and Garner the

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<v Speaker 3>prices their asset by the government and they usually set

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<v Speaker 3>anyar in advance, so that means they've not seen the

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<v Speaker 3>benefits of this rally. Hearing that, there's more pressure on

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<v Speaker 3>the government to make sure that they start to push

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<v Speaker 3>on these prices to the farmers, that the prices for

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<v Speaker 3>farmers are raised. If they don't do that, then we

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<v Speaker 3>won't have more cocor growing in the farm. So it's

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<v Speaker 3>I think in the government's interests to make sure that

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<v Speaker 3>farmers are well remunerated and that this rally that is

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<v Speaker 3>meant to benefit the farmers does actually benefit the farmers.

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<v Speaker 1>Are we seeing any of the governments really take some

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<v Speaker 1>serious measures into consideration here to help with that.

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<v Speaker 3>It's not clear right now, because as I said, every

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<v Speaker 3>constant gunners sell forward, so they've already reached agreements with

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<v Speaker 3>exporters for this season and yeah, da advance, so there's

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<v Speaker 3>little wig room for them in this season, but they

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<v Speaker 3>can do that in the next season as they sell

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<v Speaker 3>forward for the next crop. So we might see more

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<v Speaker 3>changes maybe starting October when this is on starts, but

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<v Speaker 3>between now and October there's very little will go room

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<v Speaker 3>for the governments to work around.

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<v Speaker 1>Is there a risk of maybe doing too much, especially

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<v Speaker 1>because we don't really know where the price of cocoa

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<v Speaker 1>is going or is this needed for the farms across

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<v Speaker 1>Ivory Coast and Ghana.

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<v Speaker 3>I wouldn't say there's a risk of doing too much,

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<v Speaker 3>as not much has been done. So if you look

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<v Speaker 3>at the where the price is, farmer is earning less

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<v Speaker 3>than a sixth of where the price is, so there's

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<v Speaker 3>still room for us to close the gap between what

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<v Speaker 3>the price on the futures market is and what the

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<v Speaker 3>farmer gets. So I think that is where the industry

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<v Speaker 3>wants to get at and this was probably going to come.

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<v Speaker 3>I think there's just a lot that has been happening

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<v Speaker 3>for the sector and this is the point where they

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<v Speaker 3>have to realize that farmers need the money to grow

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<v Speaker 3>more and unless they're well remunerated, then you won't be

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<v Speaker 3>getting the cocoa, and then that's going to increase the

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<v Speaker 3>cost for you and you may probably lose your consumers.

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<v Speaker 1>So this is just one of the many challenges as

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<v Speaker 1>you mentioned that farmers are facing. I mean, what else

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<v Speaker 1>is sort of hitting the industry right now that is

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<v Speaker 1>having a significant impact on what's happening on the ground

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<v Speaker 1>at some of these farms.

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<v Speaker 3>I think the biggest one, apart from prices that is

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<v Speaker 3>keeping them awake, is what we call the EUDR, that's

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<v Speaker 3>European Deforestation Law. That law is going to change how

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<v Speaker 3>the coco market works, particularly in Europe. That law will

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<v Speaker 3>require every farmer, I mean, every trader, every important of coco,

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<v Speaker 3>whoever brings coco into the European Union to show that

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<v Speaker 3>that coco was not grown on deforested land. Now that's

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<v Speaker 3>a big ask for an important If you bring iner shipment,

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<v Speaker 3>you have to show that it was not grown on

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<v Speaker 3>land that was recently deforested. What does that mean? They

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<v Speaker 3>have to have the GPS coordinates of every farm where

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<v Speaker 3>they source their cocoa. That's additional costs because these company

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<v Speaker 3>is from Cargill to e Comm to Teuton. All these

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<v Speaker 3>companies need to have boots on the ground and map

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<v Speaker 3>every farmer and make sure that that farmer is not

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<v Speaker 3>enforested land. So apart from the rising coco prices, they

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<v Speaker 3>have a regulation that will be implemented at the end

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<v Speaker 3>of this year that they have to follow that they

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<v Speaker 3>have to add THEA too, So most companies are concerned

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<v Speaker 3>us about cocoa prices, but they're also looking at the timeline.

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<v Speaker 3>They have to comply with the EUDR and make sure

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<v Speaker 3>that by December twenty ninth of December thirtieth that they

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<v Speaker 3>are able to trace every coco that they bring into

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<v Speaker 3>the EU.

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<v Speaker 1>How does that even work? I mean in rural parts

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<v Speaker 1>of Africa, I mean, how are you going to have

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<v Speaker 1>the coordinates and some of these details that the EU

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<v Speaker 1>is looking for.

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<v Speaker 3>First of all, the supply chain is just so complex.

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<v Speaker 3>The farmer and the trader, they're all like six intermediaries

0:13:01.600 --> 0:13:05.160
<v Speaker 3>between them, and so that coco is just constantly switching hands.

0:13:05.440 --> 0:13:07.120
<v Speaker 3>And then how are you going to tell a farmer

0:13:07.200 --> 0:13:10.560
<v Speaker 3>to map their land? They probably do not own a smartphone,

0:13:10.800 --> 0:13:12.640
<v Speaker 3>so it's going to be really the bad end of

0:13:12.679 --> 0:13:16.360
<v Speaker 3>the importer to do that. And trust me, if they

0:13:16.360 --> 0:13:19.400
<v Speaker 3>have to take on more costs, there is no way

0:13:19.400 --> 0:13:22.280
<v Speaker 3>they're going to absorb it into their own bottom line.

0:13:22.320 --> 0:13:25.040
<v Speaker 3>They'll probably make sure that the consumer pays for that,

0:13:25.520 --> 0:13:28.640
<v Speaker 3>but it's a huge ask for importers. Coco has been

0:13:28.679 --> 0:13:32.559
<v Speaker 3>blamed for driving deforestation in every cost and in Ghana.

0:13:32.679 --> 0:13:35.360
<v Speaker 3>To make sure that that doesn't happen. They want to

0:13:35.400 --> 0:13:39.360
<v Speaker 3>make sure that importers take responsibility of where the coco

0:13:39.520 --> 0:13:40.959
<v Speaker 3>is coming from.

0:13:41.400 --> 0:13:43.840
<v Speaker 1>And maybe just getting back to cocoa and what we've

0:13:43.880 --> 0:13:46.439
<v Speaker 1>seen over the past three months, when we think about

0:13:46.480 --> 0:13:49.480
<v Speaker 1>the end of the year, can you use your crystal

0:13:49.520 --> 0:13:53.200
<v Speaker 1>ball and give us your ideas or your outloock for

0:13:53.240 --> 0:13:55.880
<v Speaker 1>what you think, because there's some analysts who we've been

0:13:55.920 --> 0:13:58.439
<v Speaker 1>speaking to who think that we could see a crash soon.

0:13:58.679 --> 0:14:00.400
<v Speaker 1>What do you think? What's the trajectory here?

0:14:01.760 --> 0:14:04.120
<v Speaker 3>I wish I had the crystal ball to begin with,

0:14:04.880 --> 0:14:09.800
<v Speaker 3>but just looking at the market fundamentals, it's unlikely we'll

0:14:09.840 --> 0:14:14.680
<v Speaker 3>get a supply response to see production come out of nowhere.

0:14:15.000 --> 0:14:17.800
<v Speaker 3>It takes four or five years for a cockol tree

0:14:17.840 --> 0:14:20.200
<v Speaker 3>to start producing, So even if farmers went to the

0:14:20.200 --> 0:14:23.280
<v Speaker 3>field and planted coco right now, we won't see those

0:14:23.360 --> 0:14:26.240
<v Speaker 3>pods until after three to four years. That's when we'll

0:14:26.240 --> 0:14:30.480
<v Speaker 3>see that production. Prices may correct, they may come down

0:14:30.520 --> 0:14:33.160
<v Speaker 3>from the level we're seeing right now, but they won't

0:14:33.200 --> 0:14:36.360
<v Speaker 3>go back to the levels that we saw a year

0:14:36.360 --> 0:14:40.200
<v Speaker 3>ago or two years ago. Prices will still remain high

0:14:40.240 --> 0:14:44.000
<v Speaker 3>because it's about balancing supply and demand. We are heading

0:14:44.040 --> 0:14:47.280
<v Speaker 3>into the third year of deficit. Supply response will not

0:14:47.440 --> 0:14:50.480
<v Speaker 3>be there, so it's just a matter of finding that equilibrium,

0:14:50.720 --> 0:14:54.880
<v Speaker 3>and that equilibrium will still be higher prices, so consumers

0:14:54.960 --> 0:14:57.760
<v Speaker 3>have to get used to higher prices until when we

0:14:57.840 --> 0:15:00.640
<v Speaker 3>see the supply response from this kind trees, which is

0:15:00.640 --> 0:15:04.800
<v Speaker 3>not this year, not next year. So there's no relief

0:15:04.840 --> 0:15:05.760
<v Speaker 3>insight for now.

0:15:06.280 --> 0:15:09.480
<v Speaker 1>So Mumbi, it's the future of what's really happening right now.

0:15:09.920 --> 0:15:12.200
<v Speaker 1>Are we heading to a state where it's going to

0:15:12.240 --> 0:15:15.040
<v Speaker 1>be a luxury, will be a luxury for kids to

0:15:15.120 --> 0:15:16.440
<v Speaker 1>eat chocolate down the road?

0:15:16.840 --> 0:15:21.200
<v Speaker 3>Yes, but I think Europe, which is the largest consumer

0:15:21.240 --> 0:15:25.320
<v Speaker 3>of chocolate, will probably still consider it an essential item.

0:15:25.680 --> 0:15:28.880
<v Speaker 3>But for other parts of the world, maybe Asia or Africa,

0:15:28.960 --> 0:15:32.320
<v Speaker 3>that will remain a luxury. As we see these increases,

0:15:32.440 --> 0:15:36.440
<v Speaker 3>it will be out of reach for other people, maybe

0:15:36.480 --> 0:15:41.480
<v Speaker 3>in middle income areas, probably in the developing countries, but

0:15:41.560 --> 0:15:44.680
<v Speaker 3>I think for developed countries like Europe and the US,

0:15:45.280 --> 0:15:48.960
<v Speaker 3>chocolate will still be a nice street to have every

0:15:49.280 --> 0:15:51.160
<v Speaker 3>weekend of every once in a while.

0:15:51.840 --> 0:15:54.520
<v Speaker 1>All Right, thank you so much Mumby for this insight

0:15:54.560 --> 0:15:57.440
<v Speaker 1>into the cocoa industry and also all the soft commodities

0:15:57.440 --> 0:16:00.920
<v Speaker 1>that you're covering day and day out. We reallyppreciate having

0:16:01.120 --> 0:16:04.560
<v Speaker 1>you on the first pod. I think the big takeaway

0:16:04.600 --> 0:16:07.800
<v Speaker 1>here is that there's real challenges across the board in

0:16:07.840 --> 0:16:11.680
<v Speaker 1>the industry. It's really hitting farmers on the ground. Farmers

0:16:11.720 --> 0:16:14.800
<v Speaker 1>need the support, the financial support to be trickling to

0:16:14.960 --> 0:16:18.240
<v Speaker 1>their pockets in order to help support a lot of

0:16:18.280 --> 0:16:21.200
<v Speaker 1>the disease and the decay that we've been seeing on

0:16:21.240 --> 0:16:23.080
<v Speaker 1>a lot of these farms for the past few years.

0:16:23.400 --> 0:16:25.480
<v Speaker 1>But that needs to come in the form of government

0:16:25.520 --> 0:16:29.080
<v Speaker 1>stepping in to help with some of this regulation and

0:16:29.200 --> 0:16:33.640
<v Speaker 1>hopefully then the higher prices will at least even themselves out,

0:16:33.640 --> 0:16:36.120
<v Speaker 1>although I think some of us hope that they'll come

0:16:36.200 --> 0:16:38.840
<v Speaker 1>down a bit, so we'll have to wait and see

0:16:39.120 --> 0:16:42.479
<v Speaker 1>how that pans out, and also how the EU regulation

0:16:42.600 --> 0:16:47.280
<v Speaker 1>around deforestation really affects the industry more broadly, and whether

0:16:47.360 --> 0:16:50.080
<v Speaker 1>we're going to see some of these big chocolate makers,

0:16:50.120 --> 0:16:54.080
<v Speaker 1>these big companies taking a hit. But for me at

0:16:54.080 --> 0:16:56.400
<v Speaker 1>this time, I think I'm just going to focus on

0:16:56.480 --> 0:16:59.200
<v Speaker 1>stocking up on as much chocolate as I can while

0:16:59.240 --> 0:17:07.120
<v Speaker 1>the prices stay where they are. This program was produced

0:17:07.200 --> 0:17:11.000
<v Speaker 1>by Christopher Pitt and Leone Drago and you can hear

0:17:11.000 --> 0:17:13.879
<v Speaker 1>more stories like this one on the Next Africa podcast,

0:17:14.000 --> 0:17:18.560
<v Speaker 1>available every week wherever you usually get your podcasts. I'm

0:17:18.640 --> 0:17:21.639
<v Speaker 1>Jennifer Zabisagia. Thanks so much for listening. We'll see you

0:17:21.680 --> 0:17:22.120
<v Speaker 1>next time.