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Speaker 1: All right, and welcome into the Betting Pros College Football Show.

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Speaker 1: It is Conference Championship Week and week fifteen of the

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Speaker 1: college football season. Today we take a first look at

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Speaker 1: the slate and make our early picks and line movement predictions.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Seth Wilcock, coming off perhaps the greatest

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Speaker 1: weekend of college football I can remember in quite some time.

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Speaker 1: From Friday until Saturday night. I was captivated by the

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Speaker 1: pageantry that this game brings. And I am joined by

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Speaker 1: a resident CFB handicapper at Betting Pros, Scott Bogman. Boggs,

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Speaker 1: if you would have told me back in weeks zero

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Speaker 1: that both of our teams would be playing in their

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Speaker 1: conference title games, I'd be willing to write off this

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Speaker 1: season as a success.

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Speaker 2: What do you think, I mean, yes, absolutely for sure.

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Speaker 3: And your boys, Penn State, they got a chance to

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Speaker 3: come through and be the number one seeds, which is

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Speaker 3: kind of incredible to think about the path that they've taken.

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Speaker 3: And you know, just a beautiful Saturday, What a great

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Speaker 3: day to be a lot here, Seth. I mean, you know,

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Speaker 3: Texas gets back to the SEC title for the first

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Speaker 3: time ever. We gave A and M A thirteen year

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Speaker 3: head start to get there and still made it there

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Speaker 3: before them. So go on the road and beat them,

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Speaker 3: our boys. The Steelers went on the road to beat Cincinnati,

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Speaker 3: gave us the escalator of sadness. So it's just it's

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Speaker 3: a great day to be alive and breathing air. So

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Speaker 3: I am all for it. We have some great conference

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Speaker 3: championships to preview here and last week was just a

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Speaker 3: I mean chaos every single week.

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Speaker 2: And I wasn't.

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Speaker 3: My picks weren't that great this But my process, I

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Speaker 3: feel like was still good because should have got that

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Speaker 3: K State win. They made so many mistakes. They had

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Speaker 3: a ninety five percent postgame win expectancy. I should have

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Speaker 3: had that one. Barely got South Carolina, but we did

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Speaker 3: get South Carolina, Thank you Leonora Sellers. What a great

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Speaker 3: performance there. And the BYU Houston game should have gone under.

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Speaker 3: We got a pick down to the three. We got

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Speaker 3: an no on site kick return.

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Speaker 2: Oh man, that was.

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Speaker 3: Frustrating to not get my under on that game. But

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Speaker 3: process is right. Got conference championships coming up, Bowl games

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Speaker 3: are about to be set here, Army Navy next week.

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Speaker 3: We've got all kinds of stuff coming here. So it

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Speaker 3: is uh well, we're hitting peak college football. It is

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Speaker 3: some great stuff happening right now.

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Speaker 1: And people said this new era of college football, that

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Speaker 1: rivalries wouldn't be a thing, that there's too many transfers,

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Speaker 1: nobody hated another school. I mean, there is hate in

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Speaker 1: the air, and I love every single second of it.

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Speaker 1: We have an absolutely stacked program for y'all on tap

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Speaker 1: today Week fourteen reaction plus an early handicap of all

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Speaker 1: the games on the conference championship slate. Thank you to

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Speaker 1: everyone who rode with us during the regular season, the highs,

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Speaker 1: the lows, everything in between. We appreciate it. And if

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Speaker 1: you're still hanging out with us, the easiest way to

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Speaker 1: support us is like this video if you enjoy this

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Speaker 1: type of content, Plus subscribe to the channel if you

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Speaker 1: aren't already. And before we jump in, I did announce

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Speaker 1: the winner of the sign Aaron Jones Vikings Jersey giveaway,

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Speaker 1: and it's Amber Taylor. Please get in touch with our

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Speaker 1: customer support agents at the email address of Mailbag at

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Speaker 1: Fantasypros dot com with your mailing address and your proof

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Speaker 1: of your subscription to the Betting Pros YouTube channel and

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Speaker 1: we'll get that shift right out to you. Again. The

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Speaker 1: winner is Amber Taylor. Congratulations Amber, And if you want

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Speaker 1: a chance to win a sign Stafawan Diggs Texas jersey

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Speaker 1: for free courtesy our friends over Pristineauction dot Com. All

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Speaker 1: you have to do is subscribe to the betging Pros

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Speaker 1: YouTube channel right now, drop a comment below on any

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Speaker 1: of our videos, and that's it. We'll be announcing a

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Speaker 1: winner right here on the channel. So turn on those

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Speaker 1: notifications so you can be alerted with new videos are

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Speaker 1: up and acclaim your prize. Just one of the many

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Speaker 1: cool things we do here at Betting Pros is a

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Speaker 1: monthly giveaway, so excite for that. Also excited to break

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Speaker 1: down Rivalry Week because it was everything we loved about

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Speaker 1: this game culmunated into one singular weekend. Georgia survives Tech

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Speaker 1: forty four forty two and eight overtimes. Tennessee takes down

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Speaker 1: bandy thirty six twenty three, likely stamping their trip to

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Speaker 1: the college football playoffs. Michigan upsets Ohio States.

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Speaker 2: They they didn't.

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Speaker 3: We said it would be the funniest thing in the world,

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Speaker 3: but even I was ready to lay twenty and a half.

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Speaker 3: I mean that that was purely shocking. And now there's

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Speaker 3: all these Ryan Day rumors and everything.

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Speaker 2: Man, what a game. Listen.

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Speaker 1: I came into last week on this very episode of

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Speaker 1: our show, I said, I think there might.

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Speaker 2: Be some value on Michigan.

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Speaker 1: That's too many points that it was. The over didn't

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Speaker 1: come through for me, but I wish I would have

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Speaker 1: stayed packed with Michigan. But it's really hard to back

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Speaker 1: them after what we've seen all s.

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Speaker 3: We know then everyone will be taking Michigan next year.

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Speaker 3: There'll be no tickets on Ohio State.

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Speaker 2: Avery.

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Speaker 1: Yes, And it was followed by a great brawl as well,

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Speaker 1: one for the ages, pepper spray going around, people getting trampled.

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Speaker 1: South Carolina down South. They beat Clemson seventeen to fourteen.

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Speaker 1: Arizona State stomps the Wildcasts forty nine to I told you,

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Speaker 1: I know that was a good call on you, Mia Treuell.

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Speaker 1: We had a little sprinkle on that Wildcat's money line,

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Speaker 1: but we did get the over in that game. Syracuse

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Speaker 1: dashes Miami's playoff hopes forty two to thirty eight. Bama

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Speaker 1: wins the Iron both twenty eight to fourteen. Notre Dame

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Speaker 1: beats USC forty nine to thirty five, and the Longhorns

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Speaker 1: hook them take down A and M seventeen to seven.

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Speaker 1: What a weekend, my friend.

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Speaker 3: Ah, what a weekend. It was awesome. I mean, I

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Speaker 3: cannot believe. I still can't.

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Speaker 2: Believe Michigan beat Ohio State.

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Speaker 3: And not only did Michigan beat Ohio State, but when

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Speaker 3: Syracuse beat Miami, they asked Kyle McCord about it and

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Speaker 3: he said, everything comes full circle, which I thought was

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Speaker 3: just the perfect answer. The whole room started cracking up.

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Speaker 2: You know what I mean.

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Speaker 3: It was I mean, honestly, it was really on the

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Speaker 3: back of Will Howard here in The offensive line was

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Speaker 3: awful for Ohio State.

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Speaker 2: And that's you know, that was a mismatch.

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Speaker 3: But you know, we saw Ohio State handle business against

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Speaker 3: Indiana with a up offensive line. So I thought, okay, well,

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Speaker 3: you know, Indiana's defensive line had been great for most

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Speaker 3: of the season. Mckel kamara is going to go in

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Speaker 3: the draft pretty high. And but there's just too many

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Speaker 3: of those guys on the line from Michigan and Will

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Speaker 3: Howard really had some bad turnovers in that game as.

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Speaker 1: One game plan too man like, like they just kept

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Speaker 1: running right.

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Speaker 2: Up Smith Moore, what are you doing? Yeah, you know

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Speaker 2: what I mean?

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Speaker 3: So Uh, yeah, Ryan Day has a Michigan problem. I

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Speaker 3: don't think he's going to get fired. I know a

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Speaker 3: lot of people are talking about how he may get fired.

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Speaker 3: I don't think that's going to happen.

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Speaker 2: But he does.

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Speaker 3: He needs to readjust and figure it out because you know,

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Speaker 3: this is an issue and if you lose one more time.

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Speaker 3: I heard Bud Elliott talking about it. He said, look,

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Speaker 3: the first three losses, Okay, Michigan's a really good team.

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Speaker 3: This loss, you don't have an excuse for. They're not

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Speaker 3: a good team. They've been Jim Yeah, no, Jim Harbaugh.

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Speaker 3: A lot of their players are gone. They've been beat

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Speaker 3: by decent teams this year. And uh, the only, well,

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Speaker 3: they say, the only representative of the twenty twenty one

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Speaker 3: recruiting class to beat Michigan from that Ohio state classes

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Speaker 3: Quinn Yours with Texas.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, yeah, that was.

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Speaker 3: It was one of the more shocking upsets that I've

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Speaker 3: ever seen. You know, just twenty point favorites and to

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Speaker 3: lose straight up to your most hated rival, and then

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Speaker 3: with all of the stuff after the game, and you know,

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Speaker 3: every A lot has been made about the announcers being

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Speaker 3: disgusted and all that stuff, and yeah, look, I just

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Speaker 3: don't think you can have it both ways. You can't

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Speaker 3: promote this game with hatred and show all the highlights

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Speaker 3: of the fights and then be disgusted by them when

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Speaker 3: they happen after the game.

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Speaker 2: So pick a ling, you know, uh, but agreed.

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Speaker 3: I think that the rivalries are great for college football,

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Speaker 3: the fighting not so much. They probably need to do

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Speaker 3: a little something about that because I mean, look, I

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Speaker 3: think it's just competition now, but somebody's gonna eventually get

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Speaker 3: hurt pretty bad, and we need we need to put

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Speaker 3: a cap on it before that stuff happens. So because

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Speaker 3: they're throwing a real fist out there, they're not like

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Speaker 3: the you know, the rumbling where everybody's jumping and talking

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Speaker 3: smack to each other kind of pushing and shoving fights.

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Speaker 3: These are brawls. So I do think that we need

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Speaker 3: to we need to quell that a little bit.

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Speaker 2: But I don't know. I like the passion, so I

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Speaker 2: like seeing it.

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Speaker 3: I like seeing that these guys have a lot of

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Speaker 3: emotion and are playing with a lot of it as well.

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Speaker 2: So I enjoyed everything about Rivalry Week.

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Speaker 3: I think it's exactly what we wanted and It's a

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Speaker 3: lot of fun heading into conference championship, and then we

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Speaker 3: were seeing a lot of lobbying to get into this

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Speaker 3: twelve team playoff, a lot of resume posting, which has

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Speaker 3: been fun as well. So it's just the pageantry of

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Speaker 3: college football is absolutely unmatched.

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Speaker 1: Looking at what remains of the limited futures market, Travis

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Speaker 1: Hunter is now minus ten thousand to win the Heisman.

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Speaker 1: Oregon is also the National Championship favorite at plus three fifty.

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Speaker 1: Do these odds make sense to you, bogs any values

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Speaker 1: you're seeing there? Are you one of those on the

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Speaker 1: internet who's still banging the drum for Ashton genty to

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Speaker 1: be the Heisman favorite? I think he's like twenty to

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Speaker 1: one or something to win.

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Speaker 3: Now, No, that's over. I mean unless he scores ten

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Speaker 3: touchdowns in the Mountain West Conference championship game. That ain't happening.

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Speaker 3: So it minus ten thousand. Vegas puts up buildings for

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Speaker 3: a reason. Travis Hunters wonning the award, so there's no use.

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Speaker 3: I mean, look, the national title can.

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Speaker 2: Go a bunch of different ways still, and.

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Speaker 3: I'll tell you what, Oregon might be the most disrespected

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Speaker 3: number one team ever. Nobody talks about them. Now, Look,

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Speaker 3: you know, they haven't played the hardest schedule in the country,

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Speaker 3: so there's not a lot of huge games in here

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Speaker 3: that we're challenging them. We talked about him a lot

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Speaker 3: when they played Ohio State, right, but they just keep

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Speaker 3: rolling people, and no one is really discussing them a lot.

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Speaker 3: It's always about these resumes and the losses and all that,

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Speaker 3: and they're just sitting here. Twelve and zero went into

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Speaker 3: the Big Ten championship and the Power four conferences can

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Speaker 3: all be won by first timers, which is insane to me.

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Speaker 3: Texas is a first time, in Arizona State in the

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Speaker 3: Big Twelve for the first year, Oregon in the Big

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Speaker 3: Ten for the first year, SMU, and the ACC for

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Speaker 3: the first year. So all of these conferences can be

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Speaker 3: won by first year teams, which is kind of crazy

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Speaker 3: to think about. And I honestly think that they will

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Speaker 3: be won.

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Speaker 2: By all first teams. So okay, we will get into that.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, but now, I mean college football, man, this is

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Speaker 3: the stories right themselves. But it is a lot of

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Speaker 3: fun to follow along, and for those of you that

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Speaker 3: have been with us the whole year, it is thank you,

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Speaker 3: and we are ready to go for the bulls here.

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Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and open up the conference title games

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Speaker 1: starting on Friday night in Jacksonville, Alabama, where the Jacksonville

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Speaker 1: State game Cocks are four point favorites over the Western

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Speaker 1: Kentucky Hilltoppers in the Conference USA Championship game. Jacksonville State

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Speaker 1: is eight and four straight up six six ats under

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Speaker 1: Rich Rod. This comes courtesy of the third best rushing

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Speaker 1: offense in the entire nation WKU. They have kept the

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Speaker 1: air raid alive once again this season. They ranked twenty

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Speaker 1: first in passing offense. They're also eight and four straight

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Speaker 1: up seven and five ats. Western Kentucky won this game

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Speaker 1: earlier this year on their home turf nineteen seventeen, but

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Speaker 1: Jacksonville State did beat them last year at home twenty

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Speaker 1: to seventeen. Where do you see this four point line

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Speaker 1: heading if anywhere? Bugman.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, this line is steady right now at minus four.

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Speaker 3: It hasn't really moved since I've seen it, and a

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Speaker 3: lot of that is because Jacksonville State quarterback got hurt

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Speaker 3: last week against Western Kentucky. This is one of those

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Speaker 3: weird we saw it last week, We're gonna see it

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Speaker 3: again this week games and Western Kentucky just won they

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Speaker 3: were at home. Tyler Huff left with that injury. Jacksonville

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Speaker 3: State had an eighty one percent win expectancy after that

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Speaker 3: game though, so it was way more shaded in Jacksonville's

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Speaker 3: dates side here and the backup quarterback Logan Smothers. We

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Speaker 3: have a long track record with him starting for this team.

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Speaker 3: He's started for them last season. Big time recruit as well.

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Speaker 3: I think he has enough experience. I think Jacksonville State

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Speaker 3: at home should be the favorite. I do think they're

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Speaker 3: the better overall team here. So for me, I like

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Speaker 3: Jacksonville State. I don't know how much it's gonna move,

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Speaker 3: though because of this quarterback jury, so I think it's

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Speaker 3: gonna hold steady there. I think we can wait. But

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Speaker 3: the money is flowing in on Jacksonville State right now,

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Speaker 3: and it's flowing in towards the under likely because for

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Speaker 3: two reasons. Number one, the quarterback went down and number two,

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Speaker 3: we just saw this game play and it was nineteen seventeen.

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Speaker 2: So both these teams can score.

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Speaker 3: We know that they're kind of built around their offenses

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Speaker 3: and what they want to do. I just think Jacksonville

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Speaker 3: State holds the ball a lot longer at home and

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Speaker 3: I think they get this win.

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Speaker 1: In West Point, New York. The twenty fourth ranked Army

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Speaker 1: Black Knights are four point home dogs to the two

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Speaker 1: lane Green Wave two lane. They did just lose to Memphis,

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Speaker 1: but they remained seven to one in conference play nine

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Speaker 1: to three ats as well. They lost to k State

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Speaker 1: earlier this season and Oklahoma, but they did beat Navy

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Speaker 1: thirty five to zero last month. Quarterback Darien Mensa has

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Speaker 1: led this team to the six ranks scoring offense in

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Speaker 1: the nation to match their fifteenth ranked scoring defense. Army. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 1: they are undefeated in AAC play and their seven three

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Speaker 1: to one against the spread this season. But their best

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Speaker 1: win we've already talked about this this season probably came

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Speaker 1: against North Texas. Still the Black Knights, they own the

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Speaker 1: top rushing team in the country and the ninth ranked

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Speaker 1: total defense bogs. Is there any value on the boar

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Speaker 1: as it currently stands or could we maybe see some

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Speaker 1: with line movement later in the week.

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Speaker 3: I think we already have so much okay, some value here.

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Speaker 3: So my initial thought when I saw this is, Man,

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Speaker 3: I don't know, Tulane beat up on Navy, right, and

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Speaker 3: we've kind of made that comparison already earlier this season.

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Speaker 3: But if you, you know, you dig a little deeper.

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Speaker 3: You look at the losses for Tulane. Right, they've been

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Speaker 3: to as you said, K State, Oklahoma, Memphis. They're giving

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Speaker 3: up two hundred and eleven yards on average rushing in

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Speaker 3: those games. In their nine wins, they've held teams toon

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Speaker 3: ninety five point two yards rushing. So the big difference

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Speaker 3: here is if Tulane lets the team get physical with

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Speaker 3: them and push them around, they get beat right, and

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Speaker 3: you go and you look at that Navy game. But

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Speaker 3: let's not forget Blake Corvak got hurt early in that game.

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Speaker 3: I believe he played like fifteen snaps in that game,

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Speaker 3: and so they went to the backup and everything kind

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Speaker 3: of fell apart for them, and we just saw Tulane

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Speaker 3: get pushed around by Memphis. They ran down their throat.

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Speaker 3: They had a playoff spot on the line in that game.

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Speaker 3: It was possible for them to win, win the AAC

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Speaker 3: and go to the tourney as the top group of

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Speaker 3: five team if Boise State were to, you know, lose

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Speaker 3: in the Mountain West or have lost last week. So

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Speaker 3: with all that on the line, they choked and let

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Speaker 3: Memphis run down their throat. Man, I'm supporting the troops here.

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Speaker 3: I think I think Army is better than Navy. More

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Speaker 3: on that we'll see next week, of course, But I

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Speaker 3: just I think the way that this Army team imposes

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Speaker 3: their will, unless they're playing a Notre Dame or you know,

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Speaker 3: a P four school, in a good P four school,

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Speaker 3: I think they run right down their opponent's throats. I

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Speaker 3: think they do that to tou Lane in this game.

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Speaker 3: So I'm gonna take Army. And I don't hate a

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Speaker 3: money line.

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Speaker 1: Plus one sixty on the money line over a bet

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Speaker 1: three sixty five, So non terrible number there for the troops.

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Speaker 3: Man, Yeah, I like it, and I don't know again,

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Speaker 3: I'm not sure how much this line is going to move.

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Speaker 3: The money right now is on two lane, so okay, there,

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Speaker 3: I see a spot where you could get Army at

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Speaker 3: plus five and a half right now.

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Speaker 2: So maybe you don't like the money line.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think it's gonna move towards Tulane

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Speaker 3: a little bit here. So if it does, let's just wait,

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Speaker 3: let's see how long. Maybe we can get a little

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Speaker 3: more backing for the troops and make this a little

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Speaker 3: closer one. But yeah, I've not been on Army when

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Speaker 3: they've been in tough spots. This year, this is a

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Speaker 3: tough spot and I am on Army, So we'll see

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Speaker 3: if it pays off for me this time, because it

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Speaker 3: has when I'm gone against Army, it has paid off

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Speaker 3: for me, so hopefully this time it does as well.

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Speaker 1: We'll round out the Friday Night slate in Boise, Idaho,

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Speaker 1: where the nineteenth ranked Boise State Broncos are three and

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Speaker 1: a half point home favorites over the nineteenth ranked UNLV Rebels.

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Speaker 1: Heisman hopeful ash and Genty has put Boise State back

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Speaker 1: on the map for really the first time since the

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Speaker 1: Kellen Moore era. Boise State is six and six ATS,

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Speaker 1: but their only straight up loss this season came to

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Speaker 1: the top ranked Oregon team, where they only lost by

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Speaker 1: three points thirty four to thirty seven. To no surprise

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Speaker 1: the Broncos. They are six in rushing and third in

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Speaker 1: scoring offense. They do have the sixty fifth ranked total defense,

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Speaker 1: a mid early season controversy, though UNLV has been pretty

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Speaker 1: good this season ten and two straight up seven and

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Speaker 1: five ATS, they have the fourth best rushing offense in

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Speaker 1: the nation as well in the forty ninth ranked total

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Speaker 1: defense Bogs. Boise has won eight in a row against

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Speaker 1: the Reps, including twenty nine to twenty four this season

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Speaker 1: in Las Vegas. Is there value though, on them to

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Speaker 1: do it again against a team that they're very ranked,

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Speaker 1: evenly against.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, this is You just look at PFF grades UNLV

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Speaker 3: seventeenth overall, Boise State fifteen overall, and we have a

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Speaker 3: matchup where the PFF grades have tied two of these

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Speaker 3: teams that we'll get into in a little bit as well.

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Speaker 3: So you know, obviously in all these conference championships, these

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Speaker 3: lines aren't gonna be huge. They're fairly obvious here and

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Speaker 3: we haven't had those big you know, like last year

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Speaker 3: when Florida State lost their quarterback, we had a big

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Speaker 3: line and all that.

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Speaker 2: We're not getting those this year. No major injuries.

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Speaker 3: But this is another game where the team that lost

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Speaker 3: had a postgame winning They expect to see over fifty

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Speaker 3: percent and was sixty six point seven for UNLV. But

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Speaker 3: for me, you mentioned the history of this game, the

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Speaker 3: environment outdoors on the smurf turf if at Boise State,

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Speaker 3: we're showing any advantage towards Boise Stott Boise State here,

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Speaker 3: and that is my initial thought as well. I'm gonna

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Speaker 3: go to the Broncos. I'm gonna lay the points. I mean,

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Speaker 3: they had more yards, they led time and possession, they

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Speaker 3: had six sacks. And I also think that if Boise

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Speaker 3: State gets down, I think I trust Maddox Mattson a

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Speaker 3: little bit more than Hotchma Lake Williams to play comeback

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Speaker 3: in the passing game should they get down. So for me,

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Speaker 3: I just think there's too many outs to Boise State

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Speaker 3: winning this game.

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Speaker 2: We're showing an advantage there. I'm gonna roll with it.

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Speaker 1: Do we have enough public betting data yet to know

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Speaker 1: if this line's going to move at all?

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Speaker 3: Bogs, Yeah, I mean it's pretty heavily bet towards Boise State,

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Speaker 3: So if you want to take them, I would take

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Speaker 3: them fairly early.

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Speaker 2: Okay.

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Speaker 1: On Saturday, though, Ohio Bobcats are three point dogs against

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Speaker 1: the Miami Ohio RedHawks in the MAC Championship Game, hosted

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Speaker 1: at Ford Field in Detroit. Rock City, Ohio is back

386
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Speaker 1: in the title game four the second straight season, largely

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Speaker 1: due to their fourteenth ranked rushing offense and thirteenth ranked

388
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Speaker 1: total defense. Tim Albins Groups only losses this season has

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Speaker 1: come to Syracuse in Week one, Kentucky in week four,

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Speaker 1: and Miami, Ohio in week eight. They're eight and four,

391
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Speaker 1: ats best in the conference. Miami's offense has been pretty mid,

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Speaker 1: ranking ninety third in total offense under Brett Gabert, younger

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Speaker 1: brother of Blaine Gabert, but their defense has been ranking

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Speaker 1: similar to Ohio's their fourteenth in total defense. They have

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Speaker 1: won eight of the last nine games after starting off

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Speaker 1: the season zero to three, losing to the likes of

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Speaker 1: Northwestern sincey Notre Dame Boggs, where's the money coming in at?

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Speaker 1: And where are you putting yours? Personally, I think there's

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Speaker 1: some value on the Bobcats, but I could be biased

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Speaker 1: because I did meet some Ohio fans a few years

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Speaker 1: ago out of Penn State game.

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Speaker 2: They were awesome.

403
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Speaker 1: They were passing me a fireball, shot some shooters in

404
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Speaker 1: the stadium, back and forth. I've never liked people from

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Speaker 1: Ohio more than that day. So I'm going, Bobcats here,

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Speaker 1: what about you, my friend?

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Speaker 3: Well, look, Miami, that's Miami, Ohio. They're still in Ohio,

408
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Speaker 3: so we still have some Ohio people. They're they're very nice, absolutely.

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Speaker 1: Except the ones of Columbus.

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Speaker 3: We hate them, but okay, all right, yeah, I'm not

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Speaker 3: gonna say we. I don't hate the Ohio State fans.

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Speaker 3: I have a lot of friends that are Ohio State fans.

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Speaker 3: But this is a tight one. We saw Miami when

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Speaker 3: the first one. They're at home, this is a neutral site.

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Speaker 3: They have one more loss, but I mean their losses

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Speaker 3: three of their four were to Power for schools, same

417
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Speaker 3: thing for Ohio, though two of their.

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Speaker 2: Three were to Power for schools.

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Speaker 3: It was Northwestern, Notre Dame and Cincy for Miami, and

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Speaker 3: then Syracuse.

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Speaker 2: In Kentucky for Ohio.

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Speaker 3: So Ohio plays great defense, but Brett Gabbert is a veteran.

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Speaker 3: He found a way to win last time. And if

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Speaker 3: Ohio gets down, I just don't think they have the

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Speaker 3: offense play comeback again. Ohio hasn't lost the game since

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Speaker 3: the first game in Miami is on that seven game

427
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Speaker 3: win streak as well. So this is this is such

428
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Speaker 3: a good, tight MAC championship race here, It's gonna be a.

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Speaker 2: Lot of fun.

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Speaker 3: I just I trust Brett Gafferty's played in like ninety

431
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Speaker 3: eight college games or whatever it is. I mean, honestly, yeah,

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Speaker 3: he is he's gonna need an AARP card when he

433
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Speaker 3: goes to try out for the NFL here, So yeah,

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Speaker 3: I like the RedHawks a little bit in this game.

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Speaker 3: I don't think I'm betting this one with confidence because

436
00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:38,080
Speaker 3: it is such an even matchup, but I think I

437
00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:41,080
Speaker 3: would lay the points here. We do show a slight

438
00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:46,159
Speaker 3: advantage towards Ohio so and slightly towards the under but

439
00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:49,560
Speaker 3: I mean we're talking razor thin in our projections as well,

440
00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:51,560
Speaker 3: so this might be a game where you just, you know,

441
00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:54,720
Speaker 3: you wake up and let's maybe better player prop on

442
00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:56,760
Speaker 3: it and not on this game, you know what I mean.

443
00:21:56,880 --> 00:21:59,359
Speaker 3: So this one is just gonna be too tight for

444
00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:02,000
Speaker 3: me to really I think unless the lion ship's one

445
00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:02,880
Speaker 3: way or the other, do.

446
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:04,919
Speaker 1: We think it shifts? Is there any money coming in

447
00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:05,919
Speaker 1: on this as of now.

448
00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:09,199
Speaker 3: It's a lot of cash is going to Miami, so

449
00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:11,920
Speaker 3: lots of cash. So it might open up a little

450
00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:14,399
Speaker 3: bit and give your Ohio Bobcats a little bit of

451
00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:17,160
Speaker 3: a value. Later in the week, we'll see which way

452
00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:20,159
Speaker 3: that one swings. But right now I would have to

453
00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:22,800
Speaker 3: take the RedHawks, but without a ton of confidence. This

454
00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:25,800
Speaker 3: is one of my lower ones of the week for sure.

455
00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:29,320
Speaker 1: In Jerry's world, we have the Big twelve Championship game

456
00:22:29,520 --> 00:22:32,280
Speaker 1: where the twelfth ranked Arizona State Sun Devils are two

457
00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:35,120
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites over the sixteenth ranked Iowa

458
00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:39,160
Speaker 1: State Cyclones. Led by quarterback Sam Levitt and running back

459
00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:42,760
Speaker 1: Cam Skataboo, Arizona State has won and covered in five

460
00:22:42,800 --> 00:22:45,360
Speaker 1: straight to get to the conference best ten and two

461
00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:49,639
Speaker 1: ATS record. They beat down Arizona on the road forty

462
00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:52,639
Speaker 1: nine to seven for the Territorial Cup and they are

463
00:22:52,640 --> 00:22:55,760
Speaker 1: now ranked thirtieth in total offense thirty seventh in total

464
00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:59,240
Speaker 1: defense as well. Iowa State, they have rebounded from back

465
00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:02,520
Speaker 1: to back losses to Texas Tech and Kansas with three

466
00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:05,760
Speaker 1: straight wins and covers against the likes of Sincy, Utah

467
00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:09,720
Speaker 1: and k State. Quarterback rock O Beck has been dealing

468
00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:12,720
Speaker 1: as of late. He is leading this team to the

469
00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:15,680
Speaker 1: forty first total offense in the nation to go along

470
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:18,680
Speaker 1: with their thirty first ranked total defense. However, they've been

471
00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:21,560
Speaker 1: banged up at linebacker all season long. They just lost

472
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:24,159
Speaker 1: another starter over the weekend. Bogs, do you think that

473
00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:25,680
Speaker 1: catches up with Iowa State here?

474
00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:28,720
Speaker 3: I mean, I think it's more than just the linebacker

475
00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:32,000
Speaker 3: entry that catches up with the Iowa State here, and

476
00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:33,920
Speaker 3: this is another one of those games where you look

477
00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:36,560
Speaker 3: at it, I think Arizona State is playing their best

478
00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:39,240
Speaker 3: football of the year right now when it counts, and

479
00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:41,680
Speaker 3: I don't think Iowa State is. And that is basically

480
00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:44,160
Speaker 3: what's going to boil down to for me. I mentioned

481
00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:48,480
Speaker 3: Kansas State had a ninety five percent postgame win expectancy

482
00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:51,680
Speaker 3: against Iowa State last week. The week before, Utah Wow,

483
00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:55,320
Speaker 3: who lost, had an eighty five percent postgame win expectancy

484
00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:56,480
Speaker 3: even when.

485
00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:58,280
Speaker 2: They beat Sincy by seventeen.

486
00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:03,280
Speaker 3: Since he had a sixty two percent postgame win expectancy

487
00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:07,520
Speaker 3: the last game that you go back to where Iowa

488
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:10,040
Speaker 3: State was supposed to win. And I'm putting up air

489
00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:14,760
Speaker 3: quotes right sure, because postgame win expectancy doesn't really matter.

490
00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:16,920
Speaker 3: It shows you the story of the game and who

491
00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:19,360
Speaker 3: should have won. But I mean, io Sate keeps finding

492
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:21,879
Speaker 3: a way to win. But Week seven was the last

493
00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:24,760
Speaker 3: time where Iowa State had an over fifty percent postgame

494
00:24:24,800 --> 00:24:28,439
Speaker 3: win expectancy. So Rock Gobeck, who has been good, was

495
00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:32,760
Speaker 3: thirteen for thirty five last week. He was not good

496
00:24:33,160 --> 00:24:36,800
Speaker 3: in that game against k State. Now, Arizona State did

497
00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:40,040
Speaker 3: have a big injury. If this guy is gonna miss

498
00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:43,960
Speaker 3: wide receiver Jordan Tyson left this game, so if he

499
00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:46,800
Speaker 3: is out, it's going to play much tighter. But if

500
00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:49,400
Speaker 3: he's up, this isn't a bad injury and he's in.

501
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:52,840
Speaker 3: I like the Devils to win big. I think they

502
00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:55,639
Speaker 3: are playing their best football. They're pushing people around with

503
00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:58,960
Speaker 3: the offensive line right now, They're controlling the clock and

504
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:01,879
Speaker 3: you know, using the run game, and Sam Levitt is

505
00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:04,679
Speaker 3: just not making the big mistakes that he was earlier

506
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:08,720
Speaker 3: in the years. So I think that ASU definitely should

507
00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 3: be favored in this game. And right now cash is

508
00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:18,400
Speaker 3: on their side pretty favorably, so this one might open

509
00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:21,560
Speaker 3: up towards the Sun Devils. Jordan Tyson is a big piece,

510
00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:23,640
Speaker 3: though I don't if you want to wait and see

511
00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:25,560
Speaker 3: what's going on with him to bet this game, I

512
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:28,480
Speaker 3: don't blame you, because without him stretching the field, that

513
00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:31,480
Speaker 3: could limit Arizona State's offense a little bit. So in

514
00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 3: Iowa State, it keeps finding a way to snake a

515
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:36,320
Speaker 3: win in all these games where they should be losing.

516
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:40,240
Speaker 3: So they definitely know how to win games in tight situations.

517
00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:42,719
Speaker 3: So I don't want to count Iowa State out by

518
00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:45,280
Speaker 3: any stretch. They are a very good team. I just

519
00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:47,239
Speaker 3: think ASU is rolling right now. So I'm gonna take

520
00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:47,639
Speaker 3: the Sun.

521
00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:48,639
Speaker 2: Devils, okay.

522
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:51,400
Speaker 1: And you're telling us, hey, maybe we should be taking

523
00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:54,520
Speaker 1: Arizona State early if we do want the best value,

524
00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:56,760
Speaker 1: but we're still taking a gamble without their star wide

525
00:25:56,800 --> 00:25:59,480
Speaker 1: receiver being one hundred percent healthy. That's kind of what

526
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:00,239
Speaker 1: you're risking here.

527
00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:01,879
Speaker 2: Really, it's step Tyson doesn't play.

528
00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:04,280
Speaker 3: This is a different offense because he has really been

529
00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 3: a difference maker down the stretcher.

530
00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:09,320
Speaker 1: And before we continue, I did remind everybody to join

531
00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:12,080
Speaker 1: our college football podcast group. You can sink your picks

532
00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:14,359
Speaker 1: or use the quick pick feature on the Betting Pro

533
00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:16,359
Speaker 1: Sports betting app to get a chance to win some

534
00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:20,119
Speaker 1: free prizes, elevate your betting strategy, and join the conversation

535
00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:25,640
Speaker 1: today at bettingpros dot com. Slash College All Eyes will

536
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:28,879
Speaker 1: be on Atlanta at four pm Eastern time on Saturday,

537
00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:32,440
Speaker 1: where the second ranked Texas Longhorns are now two and

538
00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:35,399
Speaker 1: a half point favorites over the fifth rank Georgia Bulldogs.

539
00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:38,440
Speaker 1: Georgia does not rank inside the top thirty in total

540
00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:42,480
Speaker 1: offense or total defense and was absolutely exposed last week

541
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:45,920
Speaker 1: against Haines King and Tech. They're now three to nine

542
00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:48,359
Speaker 1: ATS and they failed to cover in four of the

543
00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:51,760
Speaker 1: last five games. However, they did beat Texas thirty to

544
00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:56,320
Speaker 1: fifteen back in October, Texas seven to five ATS this season,

545
00:26:56,359 --> 00:26:59,119
Speaker 1: coming off one of their best wins. I don't know

546
00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:01,560
Speaker 1: if just this season, but really, like I would say

547
00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:05,080
Speaker 1: in the twenty twenties of program history, seventeen to seven

548
00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:08,959
Speaker 1: winning in College Station, the Longhorns are fourteenth and total offense,

549
00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:11,840
Speaker 1: third in total defense, and they finally have gotten this

550
00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:15,120
Speaker 1: run game going. We talked about it going into last week, Boggs.

551
00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:17,639
Speaker 1: I really like what your Longhorns have been doing overall.

552
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:20,680
Speaker 1: The defense looking much improved, and I'm liking how they're

553
00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:23,760
Speaker 1: starting to mix in arch Manning's mobility off the bench

554
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:27,440
Speaker 1: as well. But can we really bet against Kirby Smart again?

555
00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:29,399
Speaker 1: That is really the question mark for me.

556
00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:29,920
Speaker 2: Yeah.

557
00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:32,280
Speaker 3: My Georgia buddy was like, your boy, wis theer's gonna

558
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:34,280
Speaker 3: have to get in that ice bath? And I'm like, well,

559
00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:36,639
Speaker 3: everybody for Georgia needs a nice bath. They just played

560
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:40,399
Speaker 3: eight overtimes, man. You know, so both these teams in

561
00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 3: nice physical matchups before this one, so coming in a

562
00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:47,199
Speaker 3: little bit beat up and tired for sure. But I

563
00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:51,280
Speaker 3: think that I was honestly surprised that Texas was the

564
00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:54,560
Speaker 3: favorite in this game after the first matchup because what

565
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:57,560
Speaker 3: has changed, well, what has changed, and to me, it's

566
00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:00,560
Speaker 3: that I think Texas defense is playing better.

567
00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:02,440
Speaker 2: Than anyone in the country right now.

568
00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:05,520
Speaker 3: And the run game and the ability to run, you know,

569
00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:07,399
Speaker 3: has really opened up.

570
00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:09,720
Speaker 1: This was supposed to be the guy at all right,

571
00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:12,280
Speaker 1: like like you know, yeah.

572
00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:14,639
Speaker 3: And then he got hurt, the guy behind him got hurt.

573
00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:17,159
Speaker 3: Why down to why isn't it right? And this is

574
00:28:17,320 --> 00:28:21,480
Speaker 3: just this is the depth of a team like Texas

575
00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:24,040
Speaker 3: and the guys that they're getting in here is just insane.

576
00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:26,399
Speaker 3: You know, you have two guys that can start a

577
00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:29,199
Speaker 3: quarterback here with yours and arch Manning. You don't have

578
00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:31,640
Speaker 3: that in a lot of programs. So I just think

579
00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:33,960
Speaker 3: the defense is playing better. They're gonna have to stay

580
00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:36,399
Speaker 3: more vertical in this game because Texas likes to do

581
00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:38,600
Speaker 3: a lot of you know, screen passes, a lot of

582
00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:41,880
Speaker 3: play action, a lot of weird motion stuff that got

583
00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:45,120
Speaker 3: them beat into the dirt against Georgia last time. Georgia

584
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:47,640
Speaker 3: was too physical at the point of attack. Beat the

585
00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:50,520
Speaker 3: tackles who you know, everyone says this is the best

586
00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:52,920
Speaker 3: offensive line in the country. They did not play like

587
00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:56,120
Speaker 3: it against Georgia at all, so they have to step

588
00:28:56,200 --> 00:28:59,720
Speaker 3: up for sure. Our left tackle got hurt, so we'll see,

589
00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:03,560
Speaker 3: you know, the backup play great. We're gonna see if

590
00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:05,960
Speaker 3: Calvin Banks replacement here can have another great week.

591
00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:07,800
Speaker 1: Projected top ten pick in Banks.

592
00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:11,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, Banks is awesome, so he did not have His

593
00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 3: worst game was against Georgia though, so I'm not sure

594
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:14,680
Speaker 3: if he's.

595
00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:15,360
Speaker 2: Going to be ready to go.

596
00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:17,920
Speaker 3: This is for a buy in the playoffs. There's a

597
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:20,600
Speaker 3: lot on the line. I'm not gonna pick against Texas,

598
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:23,200
Speaker 3: but what I will say is I like the under

599
00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:25,800
Speaker 3: in this game. Texas defense playing better than anybody else

600
00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:29,000
Speaker 3: quinn Ewers and the offense did not put up a

601
00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:32,560
Speaker 3: good fight against this defense in Georgia last time they played,

602
00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:35,480
Speaker 3: So the under is going to be my favorite play

603
00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:38,480
Speaker 3: here right now, it is forty nine and a half.

604
00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:41,600
Speaker 3: You know, BP, we're showing a slight edge towards the

605
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:42,240
Speaker 3: over here.

606
00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:43,160
Speaker 2: I get it.

607
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:48,040
Speaker 3: But cash is coming in on Georgia and tickets are

608
00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:52,400
Speaker 3: coming in on Georgia. Right now, the money is split,

609
00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:55,160
Speaker 3: it's a little bit shaded towards the over, so I

610
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:58,320
Speaker 3: think the total stays. But I think this line is

611
00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:01,200
Speaker 3: going to shrink to about one before we get there.

612
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:03,800
Speaker 3: So if you want to take Texas, I would wait, okay,

613
00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:07,760
Speaker 3: and uh yeah, we'll see what happens with the toll,

614
00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:09,920
Speaker 3: but I think it's gonna stay. But my favorite play

615
00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:13,400
Speaker 3: just because the offense is a little bit banged up

616
00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:16,720
Speaker 3: for Texas and didn't farewell last time, and the defense

617
00:30:16,880 --> 00:30:19,800
Speaker 3: is playing lights out right now. I mean Texas A

618
00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:21,520
Speaker 3: and M did not score an offensive point. They had

619
00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:22,960
Speaker 3: to pick six yep in that game.

620
00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:23,400
Speaker 2: That's it.

621
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:26,440
Speaker 3: So that was at home for Texas A and M

622
00:30:26,480 --> 00:30:29,840
Speaker 3: and the biggest matchup in the twenty twenties for them,

623
00:30:30,040 --> 00:30:33,040
Speaker 3: and they they got smoked. So I think Texas defense

624
00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:35,800
Speaker 3: is just playing too good. Their offense is banged up.

625
00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:37,760
Speaker 3: The Unders might play for sure.

626
00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:40,880
Speaker 1: There will be about a thirty minute window in the

627
00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:43,360
Speaker 1: primetime slate where all eves will be on the Sun

628
00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:47,960
Speaker 1: Belt Championship game the Louisian Outrage occasions. They are four

629
00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:52,080
Speaker 1: point home favorites against the Marshall Thunder and heard Marshall

630
00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:55,520
Speaker 1: is a Sun Belt best ten to two ats this season,

631
00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:59,000
Speaker 1: largely because they have a great three headed backfield averaging

632
00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:02,720
Speaker 1: over two hundred rush yards per game Louisiana. Meanwhile, they're

633
00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:06,200
Speaker 1: eighteenth in total offense forty second in total defense. They

634
00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:09,840
Speaker 1: show clear advantages on both sides of the ball bogs.

635
00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:12,880
Speaker 1: The Raging Cajuns are two to zero all time against Marshall.

636
00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:14,800
Speaker 1: Do they make it three in a row here and

637
00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:17,200
Speaker 1: win their fourth ever Sunbelt title?

638
00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:18,280
Speaker 2: Yeah? I think so.

639
00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:20,920
Speaker 3: Offense first defense in this game, Marshall having a top

640
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:24,680
Speaker 3: fifteen scoring defense, Louisiana with the top fifteen scoring offense.

641
00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:27,520
Speaker 3: The Cajuns top QB Ben Woolridge went down a few

642
00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:30,000
Speaker 3: weeks back. They lost that game, but they've won the

643
00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:32,800
Speaker 3: two cents and I still lean towards the offense here.

644
00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:35,800
Speaker 3: The two losses this season for the Cajuns have been

645
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:40,240
Speaker 3: to Tulane and South Alabama, where Woolridge got hurt. Marshall's

646
00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:43,200
Speaker 3: won sixth straight, but it looked very shaky last two

647
00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:45,840
Speaker 3: weeks and are a little more lopsided in terms of

648
00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:49,600
Speaker 3: being one sided. A more defensive team, for sure. I

649
00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:52,560
Speaker 3: think it's hilarious that these teams are tied. These are

650
00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:55,480
Speaker 3: the teams that are tied, both tied for thirty third

651
00:31:55,760 --> 00:31:59,640
Speaker 3: in PFF's overall team grade. Louisiana needs to control the clock.

652
00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:01,840
Speaker 3: They need to convert third downs. That's a big thing

653
00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:04,840
Speaker 3: that hasn't been happening with fields. The backup quarterback here

654
00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:08,280
Speaker 3: seven for twenty five the last two weeks. I won't

655
00:32:08,280 --> 00:32:10,680
Speaker 3: have money on this because it is such a tight race,

656
00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:14,320
Speaker 3: but BP showing the advantage Louisiana. I tend to agree

657
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:16,640
Speaker 3: to lean on the offense. So I'm gonna be taking

658
00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:17,440
Speaker 3: the cagents here.

659
00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:20,120
Speaker 1: And do you think there will be enough money coming

660
00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:21,560
Speaker 1: in on this game that we're gonna see a lot

661
00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:22,320
Speaker 1: of line movement.

662
00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:23,360
Speaker 2: Yeah?

663
00:32:23,400 --> 00:32:26,160
Speaker 3: I do, actually, because there already has been line It

664
00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:30,960
Speaker 3: looks like ninety five percent cash is on the cagents. Yeah,

665
00:32:31,040 --> 00:32:33,680
Speaker 3: so no one trusting Marshall. Yeah, So get them early

666
00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:35,480
Speaker 3: because it's already I think I had it on my

667
00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:38,160
Speaker 3: sheet at four and a half and it's already to five,

668
00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:40,520
Speaker 3: so yeah, yeah, I had to add my sheet at

669
00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:43,720
Speaker 3: four and it's already moved a point. So yeah, go

670
00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:45,959
Speaker 3: ahead and take Louisiana early if you want them.

671
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:50,840
Speaker 1: The ACC Championship will get underway at eight pm in Charlotte,

672
00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:54,640
Speaker 1: North Carolina the eighth ranked SMU Mustangs. They are two

673
00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:57,840
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites against the eighteenth Ranke Clemson Tigers.

674
00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:01,560
Speaker 1: Clemson five and seven ats this season, they have failed

675
00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:03,920
Speaker 1: to cover in five out of the last six games,

676
00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:07,480
Speaker 1: including a seventeen to fourteen loss last week to the

677
00:33:07,520 --> 00:33:10,840
Speaker 1: South Carolina game Cocks QB kad at Club Nick and

678
00:33:11,040 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 1: Phil Maffa their running back really the engines of this team.

679
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:17,200
Speaker 1: League them to the eighth ranked total offense defense not

680
00:33:17,280 --> 00:33:21,000
Speaker 1: as good this season SMU eight and four ats, and

681
00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:23,560
Speaker 1: are bout as balanced as a team can get twenty

682
00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:26,560
Speaker 1: first in total offense, twenty eighth and total defense. They're

683
00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:31,040
Speaker 1: coming off convincing wins over Cal and Uva where they

684
00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:33,880
Speaker 1: outscored both those teams that combined seventy one to thirteen

685
00:33:34,520 --> 00:33:36,720
Speaker 1: bogs is two and a half points. The best number

686
00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:39,240
Speaker 1: we'll see four Rett lash Lee's team here.

687
00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:40,600
Speaker 2: I think so.

688
00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:43,120
Speaker 3: I mean, tickets and cash are split about right down

689
00:33:43,160 --> 00:33:45,840
Speaker 3: the middle on this game right now. And while I

690
00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:48,360
Speaker 3: don't like Clemson and what they've done this year, I

691
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:50,400
Speaker 3: definitely undersold them against South Carolina.

692
00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:52,240
Speaker 2: They made that a really close game.

693
00:33:52,200 --> 00:33:54,400
Speaker 1: And still should have been favored though.

694
00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:57,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, no, they shouldn't have been and they're not in

695
00:33:57,600 --> 00:33:58,120
Speaker 3: this game.

696
00:33:58,240 --> 00:33:59,720
Speaker 2: So they've lost three.

697
00:33:59,600 --> 00:34:02,120
Speaker 3: Straight against the spread. Here Clemson hats and SMU is

698
00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:04,000
Speaker 3: not in previous to a slip. They nearly lost that

699
00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:07,680
Speaker 3: game against Duke earlier this year, and you know, their

700
00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:10,080
Speaker 3: their blemish was BYU, which at the time we thought

701
00:34:10,080 --> 00:34:11,359
Speaker 3: was a horrible loss.

702
00:34:11,120 --> 00:34:13,640
Speaker 1: Right, them all bad after that one.

703
00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:15,960
Speaker 3: I was man like, I couldn't believe they made that

704
00:34:16,040 --> 00:34:19,240
Speaker 3: switch a quarterback so fast against like Nevada was supposed

705
00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:21,800
Speaker 3: to be bad this year and they are still not good.

706
00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:25,840
Speaker 3: But you know, they made that game close, and Preston

707
00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:28,400
Speaker 3: Stone got benched. They went to Jennings and they started

708
00:34:28,640 --> 00:34:31,800
Speaker 3: Stone again and they lost to BYU. And BYU supposed

709
00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:34,160
Speaker 3: to be the worst team in the Big twelve, right,

710
00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:37,640
Speaker 3: and it looked bad and I was I was like,

711
00:34:37,719 --> 00:34:41,000
Speaker 3: what is happening to SMU? Well, now we know BYU

712
00:34:41,080 --> 00:34:42,720
Speaker 3: is one of the better teams in the Big twelve,

713
00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:45,480
Speaker 3: so that loss doesn't look nearly as bad as it

714
00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:49,080
Speaker 3: did to start. And that Duke game, Jennings turned the

715
00:34:49,080 --> 00:34:52,240
Speaker 3: ball over five times in that game and they still won.

716
00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:56,480
Speaker 3: So even though the offense draws the eyes for Smu,

717
00:34:56,760 --> 00:34:59,279
Speaker 3: the defense, I like them to get the klubnik in

718
00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:02,200
Speaker 3: harass him. They've had their eleventh and sacks of at

719
00:35:02,239 --> 00:35:05,080
Speaker 3: thirty seven this year. I think they're gonna keep them

720
00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:08,240
Speaker 3: at bay like South Carolina did last week. Kevin Jennings

721
00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:10,520
Speaker 3: not turning the ball over it is the big key

722
00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:13,880
Speaker 3: in this game. Clemson is eleventh and turnovers for so

723
00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:17,680
Speaker 3: since the Mustangs are undefeated in games of Jennings starts,

724
00:35:18,000 --> 00:35:20,360
Speaker 3: I'm gonna take SMU. But it's going to be a

725
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:22,960
Speaker 3: tough game. Clemson is still dangerous because this is it.

726
00:35:23,040 --> 00:35:25,840
Speaker 3: I don't think Clemson gets in with the resume, especially

727
00:35:25,840 --> 00:35:28,359
Speaker 3: with the loss here, so I feel like they have

728
00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:32,120
Speaker 3: to win the ACC title to get into the tournament here,

729
00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:33,600
Speaker 3: so we're gonna see their best effort.

730
00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:35,719
Speaker 2: It should be a close game, but I still like

731
00:35:35,760 --> 00:35:37,080
Speaker 2: the Ponies. Give me the Mustangs.

732
00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:39,120
Speaker 1: Do we know where the money's coming in here at all?

733
00:35:39,520 --> 00:35:39,759
Speaker 2: Yeah?

734
00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:42,760
Speaker 3: I mean it's it's split right down the middle. Okay,

735
00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:46,000
Speaker 3: I don't know if we're gonna get something. We're getting

736
00:35:46,000 --> 00:35:48,879
Speaker 3: a little more on the under than the over in

737
00:35:48,920 --> 00:35:51,799
Speaker 3: this game, but tickets in cash right now are split

738
00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:53,000
Speaker 3: as of Monday morning.

739
00:35:53,080 --> 00:35:54,080
Speaker 2: Straight down the middle.

740
00:35:54,680 --> 00:35:58,000
Speaker 1: Let's round out the program with the Big Ten Championship

741
00:35:58,080 --> 00:36:02,120
Speaker 1: game in Lucas Oil State. The top ranked Oregon Ducks

742
00:36:02,160 --> 00:36:05,000
Speaker 1: are coming into Indianapolis as a three and a half

743
00:36:05,080 --> 00:36:08,200
Speaker 1: point favorite over the third ranked Penn State Nitney Lions.

744
00:36:08,680 --> 00:36:11,600
Speaker 1: Oregon has a perfect record and is looking to win

745
00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:15,360
Speaker 1: the title in their first year in the conference. Dylan Gabriel,

746
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:18,920
Speaker 1: Jordan James Tez Johnson have led this offense to the

747
00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:21,920
Speaker 1: twenty first ranked total offense and also they have the

748
00:36:21,920 --> 00:36:25,000
Speaker 1: seventh ranked total defense. I know the Internet, there's a

749
00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:27,840
Speaker 1: lot of mixed opinions on how good this Oregon defense is.

750
00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:31,040
Speaker 1: I still think they're really good. Honestly, the Nitty Lions

751
00:36:31,200 --> 00:36:34,600
Speaker 1: have backed their way in to this game after Ohio

752
00:36:34,640 --> 00:36:37,359
Speaker 1: State lost to Michigan. Thank you Ohio State for doing

753
00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:40,439
Speaker 1: something right for me once in my life. But they

754
00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:42,359
Speaker 1: only lost to the Buckeys. That was the only lost

755
00:36:42,360 --> 00:36:44,080
Speaker 1: this season. That was a game they could have easily

756
00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:47,560
Speaker 1: won as well. This offense, led by quarterback Drew Aller,

757
00:36:47,680 --> 00:36:49,960
Speaker 1: tight end Tyler Warren, and two of the best running

758
00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:53,600
Speaker 1: backs in the nation with Nicholas Singleton and k Tron Allen.

759
00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:57,080
Speaker 1: They are ranked nineteenth in total offense. Their defense includes

760
00:36:57,120 --> 00:37:00,399
Speaker 1: game wreckers like Abdol Carter, who's a projected top ten pick,

761
00:37:00,640 --> 00:37:03,680
Speaker 1: and Deny Dennis Sutton. They are ranked fifth in total

762
00:37:03,760 --> 00:37:06,600
Speaker 1: defense bogs. This is the most complete Penn State team

763
00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:08,880
Speaker 1: I've seen since all the way back in that twenty

764
00:37:08,880 --> 00:37:11,920
Speaker 1: sixteen season when we won the Big Ten championship. Is

765
00:37:11,960 --> 00:37:13,879
Speaker 1: there a number we could see that would actually give

766
00:37:13,920 --> 00:37:16,680
Speaker 1: us value on them. Both the Nitty Lions and the

767
00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:19,440
Speaker 1: Ducks are six and six ats this season.

768
00:37:20,239 --> 00:37:22,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean we're we're kind of already showing a

769
00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:28,520
Speaker 3: slight shade towards Penn State BPS in this But to me,

770
00:37:29,520 --> 00:37:32,959
Speaker 3: it's gonna be which quarterback makes the big play down

771
00:37:33,000 --> 00:37:37,040
Speaker 3: field because both these quarterbacks are somewhat conservative in plays downfield.

772
00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:41,399
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, you know, the defenses matchup. Well, I'm trying

773
00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:44,800
Speaker 3: to see something that would have me automatically take Oregon

774
00:37:44,880 --> 00:37:47,239
Speaker 3: like my I want to lean towards Oregon again. I

775
00:37:47,280 --> 00:37:50,200
Speaker 3: think they're one of the more disrespected number one teams

776
00:37:50,239 --> 00:37:54,239
Speaker 3: that's been number one for so long. Yeah, they just

777
00:37:54,280 --> 00:37:57,000
Speaker 3: haven't played many big matchups, which makes them scary going

778
00:37:57,040 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 3: into this game. And I do think Penn State can

779
00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:02,040
Speaker 3: win this. Maybe this week, when I'm digging a little

780
00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:04,360
Speaker 3: bit deeper, I'll find something that will give me a

781
00:38:04,480 --> 00:38:07,319
Speaker 3: lean towards the side. But right now, I just I

782
00:38:07,440 --> 00:38:09,800
Speaker 3: like the over. I think both teams are going to

783
00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:11,920
Speaker 3: be able to score a little bit. The money's pointing

784
00:38:11,960 --> 00:38:14,719
Speaker 3: in so far on the under, So if you like

785
00:38:14,800 --> 00:38:16,560
Speaker 3: the over, I think you can sit on it and

786
00:38:16,600 --> 00:38:19,160
Speaker 3: wait as well. So for me, right now, I'm just

787
00:38:19,239 --> 00:38:21,680
Speaker 3: kind of waiting to see which way the line moves

788
00:38:22,120 --> 00:38:26,440
Speaker 3: because right now it is heavy in Oregon's favorite figure

789
00:38:26,480 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 3: for money, and it's as actually has flipped.

790
00:38:29,520 --> 00:38:32,000
Speaker 2: It was way on the under last night.

791
00:38:32,080 --> 00:38:35,440
Speaker 3: I think somebody placed a big bet on the over

792
00:38:35,520 --> 00:38:38,279
Speaker 3: here because now it's ninety one percent cash on the over.

793
00:38:38,480 --> 00:38:42,520
Speaker 3: So maybe if you want the over, you need to

794
00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:44,240
Speaker 3: get on it a little bit sooner than I initially

795
00:38:44,280 --> 00:38:48,080
Speaker 3: thought here. So but yeah, I don't like the side here.

796
00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:49,920
Speaker 3: If it's going to open up and it's going to

797
00:38:49,960 --> 00:38:52,319
Speaker 3: get to five more points than that for Oregon, then

798
00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:56,359
Speaker 3: I'm definitely gonna take Penn State. But yeah, right now,

799
00:38:56,400 --> 00:38:58,120
Speaker 3: the over is my favorite play. I don't have a

800
00:38:58,160 --> 00:39:00,920
Speaker 3: really good feel for this game. Organ hasn't been challenged

801
00:39:00,960 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 3: that much this year, right Boise State game is Scare,

802
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:06,680
Speaker 3: Ohio State game of Scare. After that, they beat everybody

803
00:39:06,680 --> 00:39:09,239
Speaker 3: else into the dirt. So I do think they're a

804
00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:11,280
Speaker 3: really good team, and I think they deserve this ranking,

805
00:39:11,520 --> 00:39:14,399
Speaker 3: But they have to prove it and to keep your

806
00:39:14,400 --> 00:39:16,680
Speaker 3: by to stick with it, you have to prove it

807
00:39:16,719 --> 00:39:18,799
Speaker 3: and beat a good Penn State team, and I do

808
00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:20,440
Speaker 3: expect them to do that, but I don't know if

809
00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:21,880
Speaker 3: it's gonna be buy more than a field goal. So

810
00:39:21,880 --> 00:39:24,040
Speaker 3: if we're gonna get more than that, I think I'm

811
00:39:24,040 --> 00:39:26,080
Speaker 3: gonna be taking your nitty alliance here.

812
00:39:26,560 --> 00:39:29,279
Speaker 1: I think what decides this game is how the Penn

813
00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:33,640
Speaker 1: State defensive line holds up against this Oregon offensive line.

814
00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:36,680
Speaker 1: Because the one time we saw Gabriel struggle was in Wisconsin,

815
00:39:36,760 --> 00:39:38,920
Speaker 1: right where they were getting after him a little bit.

816
00:39:38,960 --> 00:39:42,080
Speaker 1: And if Abdol Carter denied Dennis Sutton and the Boys

817
00:39:42,080 --> 00:39:43,839
Speaker 1: can get after him, I don't know.

818
00:39:44,040 --> 00:39:44,400
Speaker 2: I don't know.

819
00:39:44,480 --> 00:39:47,200
Speaker 1: It's interesting, it's interesting. I'm curious to see him be

820
00:39:47,239 --> 00:39:50,520
Speaker 1: a good game. Yeah. Yeah, I'm blessed. I'm thankful for it.

821
00:39:50,560 --> 00:39:52,719
Speaker 1: I'm thankful for everyone who rides with us each and

822
00:39:52,760 --> 00:39:55,480
Speaker 1: every single week. As well. That's gonna do it for

823
00:39:55,600 --> 00:39:58,439
Speaker 1: us today on the Betting Pros College Football Show. Thank

824
00:39:58,480 --> 00:40:00,880
Speaker 1: you for watching. Will be back in the week with

825
00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:04,200
Speaker 1: throw for our picks and prediction show. Until then, please

826
00:40:04,360 --> 00:40:06,480
Speaker 1: like this video if you enjoyed it, subscribe to the

827
00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:09,439
Speaker 1: channel if you aren't already, and download the BEG Pros

828
00:40:09,480 --> 00:40:12,719
Speaker 1: app and sink your sportsbooks today. For Scott Bogman, I'm

829
00:40:12,760 --> 00:40:15,319
Speaker 1: Seth Wilcock. Take care of y'all.

830
00:40:15,320 --> 00:40:17,480
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros Podcast.

831
00:40:17,719 --> 00:40:20,080
Speaker 4: If you love the show, The best freeway to support

832
00:40:20,160 --> 00:40:23,080
Speaker 4: us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts

833
00:40:23,160 --> 00:40:26,160
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834
00:40:26,160 --> 00:40:28,680
Speaker 4: Pros and Instagram at Betting Pros NFL.

835
00:40:29,080 --> 00:40:30,120
Speaker 2: Also subscribe to our

836
00:40:30,160 --> 00:40:39,239
Speaker 4: YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros