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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: POPA, All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Fifteen funny twenty five starting thirty five forty forty five

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Speaker 3: fifty and.

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Speaker 2: The Chicks brut cover football stunners.

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Speaker 3: Oh my goodness, please.

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Speaker 2: Stumble and bubble the latter turn a tatter on the epside.

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Speaker 4: Gus the lad.

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Speaker 5: Table off the field the night.

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Speaker 6: It's not the sage of the dog in the fighting,

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Speaker 6: it's the SiGe of the fight.

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Speaker 3: Get A. Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast

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Speaker 3: presented by DraftKings Sportsbook. This is the group of five

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Speaker 3: deep dive for Championship Week. I'm Mike Calburty, joined by

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Speaker 3: my Action Now we're co host Duck, and instead of

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Speaker 3: sounding off, can we just back for a moment, just

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Speaker 3: for one second, in the beauty of the fact that

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Speaker 3: we could have not one, but two G five teams

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Speaker 3: in the college Football Playoff. You hear that Will Compton

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Speaker 3: and all you power for gatekeepers trying to keep our

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Speaker 3: G five Cinderella's out.

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Speaker 2: Of the dance. No disrespect, Duck.

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Speaker 3: I know that you have a two hundred to one

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Speaker 3: Virginia future that you would love to cash, but we

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Speaker 3: are on the precipice of some crazy things happening. When

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Speaker 3: they expanded the College Football Playoff, it was really, you know,

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Speaker 3: throwing the G five a bone. But now here we

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Speaker 3: are with an opportunity to get two teams in. It's

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Speaker 3: going to require James Madison win. It's going to require

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Speaker 3: a Duke win. But at this point I got to say,

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Speaker 3: I'm thrilled. For a season that started off in September.

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Speaker 3: There wasn't a lot of upsets. The G five weren't

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Speaker 3: scoring a lot of points in terms of beating those

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Speaker 3: Power four teams. But now they're positions you can say

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Speaker 3: whatever you want. Maybe they're backing their way in. Maybe

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Speaker 3: it's just, you know, a testament to the ACC being

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Speaker 3: so watered down. I don't care if we get two

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Speaker 3: of them in. I'll be thrilled. What are your thoughts, Duck.

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Speaker 3: I know that you have a lot riding on the

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Speaker 3: wa who's cash in that sick and going down as

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Speaker 3: the ACC champs, But what are your thoughts on two

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Speaker 3: G five teams crashing the dance?

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Speaker 4: Well, what a fun story and what an up yours

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Speaker 4: to the committee as well? When you have these rules

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Speaker 4: that were set in place, which many people didn't understand

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Speaker 4: when the season started, they kind of thought it was

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Speaker 4: the four Power conference champion winners and then the highest

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Speaker 4: ranked group of five champion. But that's not the way

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Speaker 4: the letter of the law is written. It's the top

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Speaker 4: five highest rated conference champions. And that's why we're in

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Speaker 4: this predicament now, because you're going to have the American

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Speaker 4: winner in and then it's going to come down to

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Speaker 4: the ACC champion or possibly James Madison. But what will

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Speaker 4: be really fascinating is if it does play out that

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Speaker 4: way and Duke ends up winning and I'm at home

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Speaker 4: crying all next week instead of broadcasting with you. If

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Speaker 4: it ends up happening that way, does the committee somehow

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Speaker 4: find a way to finagle Miami in there as an

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Speaker 4: at large so the ACC doesn't get left out anyway?

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Speaker 5: I think this will, if anything else.

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Speaker 4: Provoke some conversation about some chain with the P four

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Speaker 4: conferences and how they handle their time, their tie breaking scenarios,

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Speaker 4: and how they can somewhat position some of their stronger

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Speaker 4: teams as we get into the late stages of the

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Speaker 4: season next year and beyond.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think those are all fair points.

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Speaker 3: I think the reality of the situation is, as these

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Speaker 3: mega conferences expanded, you were going to have teams that

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Speaker 3: all of a sudden lucked into furtuitive schedules like Texas

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Speaker 3: A and M playing the bottom of the SEC, or

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Speaker 3: teams that have a murderer's row and all of a

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Speaker 3: sudden they're firing their coach and paying huge buyouts.

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Speaker 2: That just comes with the territory.

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Speaker 3: I do think in the future, we're gonna have these

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Speaker 3: conferences splinter back out. Maybe you're gonna have divisions come

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Speaker 3: back once again, because there's no other way to be

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Speaker 3: able to balance it evenly in terms of scheduling on

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Speaker 3: an annual basis. And right now we just have some

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Speaker 3: teams that are potential frauds. We have teams with three

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Speaker 3: or four losses that are probably a lot better than

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Speaker 3: the record would indicate. So there's just something to consider

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Speaker 3: now before we get into the show, before we get

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Speaker 3: into all of our best bets for all five of

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Speaker 3: these G five conference championship games, I'm going to kick

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Speaker 3: it over to our man Stucky for quick word from DraftKings.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Zucky.

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Speaker 3: Now, as you know, we're going to give out pickstarout

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Speaker 3: If you've been tailing him the last two March madnesses,

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Speaker 4: Mike, let's start in the American Conference on Friday night.

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Speaker 4: One of these teams has been our darling team all

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Speaker 4: season in the conference. The other has been a major

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Speaker 4: thorn in my ass most of the way this year.

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Speaker 4: A little bit of damper put on this one. With

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Speaker 4: both coaching regimes being hired away to P four jobs.

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Speaker 4: We're likely going to have some amount of bandwidth that's

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Speaker 4: been taken away from their teams the last week or

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Speaker 4: so since they've been hired away, But I'm excited here

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Speaker 4: to see how this one plays out. Can North Texas

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Speaker 4: and that high flying offense that leads the country have

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Speaker 4: success here against the best pass rush in the American Conference?

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Speaker 4: Or will the two lane turnover voodoo continue? Can the

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Speaker 4: North Texas defense step up against the run and they

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Speaker 4: can they contain what Tulane wants to do offensively? Or

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Speaker 4: does retz Laugh and company run wild? Can the Mean

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Speaker 4: Green go into Yuleman and do what no other team

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Speaker 4: this season has been able to do in defeating TWU

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Speaker 4: Lane at home? Breezy break it down for us.

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Speaker 3: Well, my thoughts here are pretty simple, Tu Lane. I mean,

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Speaker 3: at least on the defensive side of the ball, they've

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Speaker 3: earned their keep. They are a serious team. Some are

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Speaker 3: all sticking around to coach the thing out. I'm glad

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Speaker 3: that we're seeing it, because you've seen it at the

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Speaker 3: P four level. As soon as these guys have an opportunity,

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Speaker 3: they're taking the next chart flight out of town. He's

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Speaker 3: going to ride it out, same as Eric Morris. I

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Speaker 3: love that from a G five morale perspective, But I

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Speaker 3: still think that this two lane team never quite came

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Speaker 3: together fully on the offensive side of the ball. I

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Speaker 3: will give their defense their flowers. They held five AAC

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Speaker 3: opponents to blow twenty points, you know, their top thirty

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Speaker 3: and so many different defensive metrics. But I think there's

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Speaker 3: an opportunity for this North Texas offense to crack them

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Speaker 3: because of their balance. Much has been made of the

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Speaker 3: mess to Maker story. I mean, I love the kid.

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Speaker 3: The fact that he didn't start a varsity game in high.

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Speaker 2: School is just absurd.

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Speaker 3: It takes that you know Matt Castle story from the

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Speaker 3: USC days and just doubles down on it. So in

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Speaker 3: terms of him being a folk hero, it's already secured.

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Speaker 3: But they don't need him to throw fifty times in

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Speaker 3: this game. They got Hawkins out of the backfield. He's

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Speaker 3: sixteen rushing touchdowns in the last four games. And when

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Speaker 3: it's not just you know, smoking mirrors or broken plays

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Speaker 3: or you know, a couple of long touchdown runs, the

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Speaker 3: fact of the matter is you look at them in

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Speaker 3: lineyards and rushing success, they're top ten in both. So

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Speaker 3: when you balance those things out, I really like this

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Speaker 3: Eric Morris offense to find the way through this two

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Speaker 3: lane defense. Whether it is playing great situational football, whether

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Speaker 3: it's relying on Hawkins or if they're down. There's not

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Speaker 3: a game script or game flow that I'd be scared of.

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Speaker 3: If they're down by ten points in this game, I

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Speaker 3: don't think they're drawing dead. Whereas if you look at

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Speaker 3: Jake Retz laugh, he has put the ball in danger consistently.

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Speaker 3: You know, I had to go through and look at

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Speaker 3: some of his turnover worthy plays, both on tape and

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Speaker 3: then in the you know, the passing charts that PFF

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Speaker 3: puts together. He is seventeen turnover worthy plays this season,

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Speaker 3: and you could see it in those performances when things

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Speaker 3: started poorly, like that performance against Utsa, when he gets

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Speaker 3: at the deep end of the pool, he starts flailing,

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Speaker 3: he starts putting the ball on Harm's way, He's speeding

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Speaker 3: through his reads, trying to force the ball down field.

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Speaker 3: So I think from a game script game flow perspective,

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Speaker 3: if two lane on their home field falls behind, I

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Speaker 3: think there's going to be a lot of pressure that's

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Speaker 3: going to slide squarely on Retslift's shoulders, and I don't

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Speaker 3: think he's going to be able to answer the belt.

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Speaker 2: That's my take on this game.

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Speaker 3: I'm fine with the money line I'm fine lane the

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Speaker 3: two and a half underneath that key number of three.

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Speaker 3: And also from a live betting perspective, if the main

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Speaker 3: Green go down early in this one, They're certainly not

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Speaker 3: going to be drawing dead. I'd love to get them,

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Speaker 3: you know, catching three three and a half plus money.

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Speaker 3: So I'm gonna bet them pregame, and I certainly wouldn't

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Speaker 3: shy away from hammering them as soon as that first

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Speaker 3: score of the game is tallied, particularly if it's on

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Speaker 3: the two lane side.

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Speaker 4: You know, generally you're gonna go broke betting against two

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Speaker 4: lane at home. But I don't think this is the

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Speaker 4: same two lane team that we've come to know and

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Speaker 4: love over the last three to four years. And despite

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Speaker 4: Unt's run defensive metrics, I don't think two Lane's going

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Speaker 4: to go in there and run the ball on these guys.

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Speaker 4: When you look at North Texas, they played Navy Army, Rice,

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Speaker 4: South Florida, several dynamic rushing offenses, and several of those

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Speaker 4: teams all they do is run the football, but a

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Speaker 4: lot of those rushing yards were surrendered in the second half.

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Speaker 4: With the games already decided, North Texas was rotating in

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Speaker 4: the second platoon and second second team guys getting wrapped.

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Speaker 4: I think two lane's going to be up against it here.

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Speaker 4: And if you put two lane in situations where there

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Speaker 4: are obvious passing downs and Retzlaf has to do it

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Speaker 4: with his arm, I think these guys are going to

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Speaker 4: be in major trouble against a legitimate North Texas defense

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Speaker 4: that I think is very good. Two Lane should see

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Speaker 4: very little explosiveness in the past game, and you look

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Speaker 4: at the red zone offense twenty eight touchdowns and fifty trips,

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Speaker 4: and North Texas's red zone defense has bowed up time

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Speaker 4: and time again. This year, I think we will see

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Speaker 4: two Lanes struggle to move the ball into the red zone,

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Speaker 4: and when they do, they'll settle, settle for field goals.

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Speaker 4: I can also see a second half script where if

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Speaker 4: North Texas does have the lead, maybe they take the

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Speaker 4: octane off a little bit here and try and salt

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Speaker 4: the fourth quarter away, use that run game to control

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Speaker 4: the clock, play some keep away, which is something they're

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Speaker 4: not accustomed to doing, but I think we'll see that here.

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Speaker 4: I think this game plays to the under, and I

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Speaker 4: like two Lanes team total under thirty two and a half,

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Speaker 4: which is widely available about everywhere.

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Speaker 2: Now, as you can see if you're watching on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: We went ahead and we got dressed up.

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Speaker 3: You got to address to the Nines for Championship Week

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Speaker 3: here in the G five, and.

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Speaker 2: It's kind of been a rags to riches story.

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Speaker 3: You know, I'm surprised these two teams have made it

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Speaker 3: to the ball and Conference USA, as a matter of fact,

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Speaker 3: if you go back and listen to the tape in

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Speaker 3: the preview season, we were both not so high on

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Speaker 3: Jacksonville State. We thought that they were going to be

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Speaker 3: a team that struggled to find an offensive identity the

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Speaker 3: whole you know, kind of mix of Rich Rota's staff

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Speaker 3: leaving and then Charles Kelly coming in without that head

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Speaker 3: coaching experience. What would they look like this year? It

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Speaker 3: got even worse on the Kamisau state of things. The

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Speaker 3: Conference USA, by the way, they threw out the preseason poll,

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Speaker 3: at least the traditional one where they ranked the team's

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Speaker 3: top to bottom. Instead, they went with a voter confidence

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Speaker 3: about their likelihood of getting to Bowl eligibility. I'm still

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Speaker 3: not exactly sure what the hell they were doing with that.

259
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Speaker 3: Was everyone voting zero to one hundred percent or was

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Speaker 3: a vote one hundred percent to get to Bowl eligibility. Anyway,

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Speaker 3: in terms of that, if you look at it, they

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Speaker 3: went with Jacksonville State being the third likeliest team to

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Speaker 3: go ahead and get to Bowl eligibility six wins out

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Speaker 3: of CUSA Kennesaw. They ranked as the second lowest eleventh

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Speaker 3: out of the twelve teams there in Conference USA. So

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Speaker 3: let's just balance this out a little bit, because both

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Speaker 3: of these teams clearly had flaws, and yet they just

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Speaker 3: kept winning close games throughout the entire season. You look

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Speaker 3: at Jacksonville State I mentioned at the top, they didn't

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Speaker 3: have much of an offensive identity outside of Cam Cook.

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Speaker 3: And to borrow an analogy, why can't you just make

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Speaker 3: the whole plane out of the black box? Why can't

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Speaker 3: you just make the whole thing instructible? Well, they build

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Speaker 3: their entire offense around Cam Cook. He led the nation

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Speaker 3: in rushing, He led the nation and broken tackles and

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Speaker 3: went for a thousand yards after contact. I know no

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Speaker 3: one is touching any of those Ash and Gents numbers

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Speaker 3: from twenty twenty four, but he gives some of that

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Speaker 3: flavor where it just looks like he refuses to go

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Speaker 3: down particularly he is that nose for the end zone.

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Speaker 3: They make sure that they're cashing in on those drives,

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Speaker 3: scoring when they get inside opponent's ten yard line. But

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Speaker 3: you have to figure that Kenesaw knows what's coming. The

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Speaker 3: guy's going to get twenty five thirty carries in this game.

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Speaker 3: But I've had enough of betting against camp Cook this season.

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Speaker 3: I've had my pill that regard now Knasaw. On the

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Speaker 3: other side of things, they've lived on the edge with

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Speaker 3: five one possession wins Jacksonville State, by the way, if

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Speaker 3: you look at it, they have five wins by three

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Speaker 3: points or less. So it would seem, you know, stands

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Speaker 3: to reason that you should play a close outcome in

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Speaker 3: this game. In terms of the point spread. Right now,

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Speaker 3: it's it's the Owls lay in two and a half

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Speaker 3: with a total sitting at fifty nine and a half.

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Speaker 3: There are some markets out there where you can go

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Speaker 3: margin in either direction. I think it would be a

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Speaker 3: pretty sharp play to go four points in either direction

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Speaker 3: on this game. You can manually bet that out as

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Speaker 3: well for exact outcomes.

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Speaker 2: But I just kind of view this.

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Speaker 3: If I had to play it, I just I can't fade,

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Speaker 3: can't cook any longer. Even with Kennasaw finally getting some

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Speaker 3: offensive momentum later in the year, Mario Odam, by the way,

304
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Speaker 3: finish on an insane here it finally all came together

305
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Speaker 3: for the Owls quarterback. He finishes against Missouri State and

306
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Speaker 3: Liberty ready for these numbers eleven total touchdowns, seven hundred

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Speaker 3: and thirty one total yards of offense. But against this

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Speaker 3: very same Jacksonville State defense played the worst game his career,

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Speaker 3: three interceptions, zero touchdown. So every time I'm starting to

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Speaker 3: talk myself into fading the Cocks, I'm back to this

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Speaker 3: has got to be a pass or a close game.

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Speaker 3: What are your thoughts on this one? Do you think

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Speaker 3: a conference that clearly has been drawing dead from the

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Speaker 3: college fooall playoff perspective still has a little bit of juice,

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Speaker 3: still has some entertaining football to deliver up this week?

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Speaker 3: What are your thoughts in this Conference USA Championship game?

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Speaker 4: Should be very entertaining. Should be a little weather that's

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Speaker 4: expected for this one. Could be some rain showers that

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Speaker 4: could make the game touch and go. Because there could

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Speaker 4: be some thunder and some lightning, there shouldn't affect the

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Speaker 4: gameplay too badly. But it is something to watch. Kenisaw

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Speaker 4: should be able to throw the ball here. Both quarterbacks

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Speaker 4: they've used, Williams and a mari Odam have thrown it

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Speaker 4: really well this year. Both of combined to throw for

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Speaker 4: three thousand yards. Kennisaw has found success in the past

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Speaker 4: game accumulating the chunk plays this season, while j State

327
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Speaker 4: gives that up defensively one hundred and eighth defensively in

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Speaker 4: surrendering explosive explosive pass plays. Jacksonville State is also poor

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Speaker 4: in pass coverage, fourth worst pass coverage unit in CUSA

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Speaker 4: per PFF. When you look at the game Cocks, they're

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Speaker 4: pretty banged up at linebacker. They've got a couple linebackers out,

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Speaker 4: a couple d linemen that are projected to be out

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Speaker 4: for this one. This defense really could struggle here for

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Speaker 4: Jacksonville State to get stops. If the Knasau pass game

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Speaker 4: is clicking, and based on what you just threw out

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Speaker 4: there to us, it likely will be.

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Speaker 5: Jacksonville is going to run the ball here.

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Speaker 4: A ton strong rushing team with Cam Cook and Caden Kreele,

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Speaker 4: the two headed monster, has been really dynamic this year

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Speaker 4: on the ground. Kanisaw's giving up a ton of explosives

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Speaker 4: in the run game. You look at three linebackers potentially

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Speaker 4: out for the Owls in this game. Could be major trouble.

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Speaker 4: When Cam Cook gets to that second level. You talk

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Speaker 4: about breaking tackles, gashing defenses, it could be a really

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Speaker 4: long night for this Kanasas State run stop unit here.

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Speaker 4: I would imagine both of these offenses should be able

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Speaker 4: to feast against the opposing defenses. We should see a

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Speaker 4: higher scoring game. I look at the matchup earlier this season,

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Speaker 4: which ended with sixty one total points. Kanasaw had five

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Speaker 4: hundred and seventy nine total yards, letely shredding Jacksonville State

351
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Speaker 4: up and down the field. They had several red zone turnovers,

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Speaker 4: they missed a couple field goals. There should have been

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Speaker 4: much more scoring in that game. I think they will

354
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Speaker 4: score touchdowns here. I think the both teams will cash

355
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Speaker 4: in in the red zone. I like over fifty nine

356
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Speaker 4: and a half in this one.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's go to the Mac.

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Speaker 3: I've been hard on the MAC as well this season,

359
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Speaker 3: but I'm a defensive guy.

360
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Speaker 2: They got the best defensive team.

361
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Speaker 3: To the finish line here, at least with an opportunity

362
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Speaker 3: to play for a conference title, and that's Western Michigan.

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Speaker 3: They are top thirty in terms of success rate both

364
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Speaker 3: against the run and the pass, which puts them in

365
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Speaker 3: a wonderful position to win a lower scoring game, this

366
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Speaker 3: total sitting at forty three.

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Speaker 2: And a half. And then when you look at it,

368
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Speaker 2: it's very difficult to beat them with a methodical drive.

369
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Speaker 3: In terms of quality drives allowed this year their top

370
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Speaker 3: twenty five, so you probably got to do it by

371
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Speaker 3: popping a few big plays, and they're just so sound

372
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Speaker 3: in their fundamentals. Now on the other side of things,

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Speaker 3: brock Lowry, their quarterback, is not someone who's going to

374
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Speaker 3: wow you with, you know, the arm candy kind of

375
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Speaker 3: throws where he's making those pro throws and pushing the

376
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Speaker 3: ball downfield into tight windows.

377
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Speaker 2: But he's done two.

378
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Speaker 3: Things really well this year. He's run the ball in

379
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Speaker 3: critical moments. That's situational football, picking up third and fourth downs,

380
00:17:08,840 --> 00:17:10,480
Speaker 3: and also having a nose for the end.

381
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Speaker 2: Zone when they get into the red zone.

382
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Speaker 3: Being able to use those quarterback runs, those quarterback powers,

383
00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:17,120
Speaker 3: you get the numbers game to work, getting the hat

384
00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:19,119
Speaker 3: on a hat, getting some double teams down in the

385
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Speaker 3: red zone. He brings that to the table and number two,

386
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Speaker 3: he doesn't turn the ball over. Yes, he's not making

387
00:17:24,040 --> 00:17:27,320
Speaker 3: those off platform crazy throws, but he's also giving you

388
00:17:27,359 --> 00:17:29,520
Speaker 3: an opportunity to win the turnover battle every single time

389
00:17:29,520 --> 00:17:31,320
Speaker 3: that you play. Now, on the other side of things,

390
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Speaker 3: Miami of Ohio preseason, the expectations and really the ceiling,

391
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Speaker 3: I think a lot of people thought, if everything went right,

392
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Speaker 3: you got Chuck Martin, a head coach who's won in

393
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Speaker 3: this league. You got to Kwan Finn returning to the MAC,

394
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Speaker 3: somebody who's played at a conference player of the year level.

395
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Speaker 2: Put those two things together.

396
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Speaker 3: What they could win nine ten games, and then out

397
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Speaker 3: of the shoot they go zero to three, including that

398
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Speaker 3: absolute heartbreaker against UNLV, And then you fast forward to

399
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Speaker 3: Kwan Fin just quits the team.

400
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Speaker 2: He's going to focus on his pro future.

401
00:17:57,520 --> 00:18:00,000
Speaker 3: What pro future, And now all of a sudden you

402
00:18:00,040 --> 00:18:03,119
Speaker 3: got to turn to Tommy Gatkowski, who two full games

403
00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:05,679
Speaker 3: worth of work almost you know, basically start and he

404
00:18:05,720 --> 00:18:08,160
Speaker 3: came in very quickly. In the other game, he's put

405
00:18:08,200 --> 00:18:10,480
Speaker 3: together some interesting tape. I don't think there's any reason

406
00:18:10,520 --> 00:18:13,280
Speaker 3: to think that they have to be truly one dimensional,

407
00:18:13,760 --> 00:18:17,320
Speaker 3: but in terms of where they're trending, emotionally to lose

408
00:18:17,320 --> 00:18:19,720
Speaker 3: a starting quarterback, to lose, you know, a captain of

409
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Speaker 3: your offense, someone who should be, someone who's making the

410
00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:25,439
Speaker 3: big plays when you need them. It seems like the

411
00:18:25,520 --> 00:18:28,560
Speaker 3: number has not moved far enough in Western's favor. Do

412
00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:29,960
Speaker 3: you agree with that? And do you think this is

413
00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:33,040
Speaker 3: a potential ladder spot for a Broncos team that usually

414
00:18:33,080 --> 00:18:35,920
Speaker 3: would be the opposite of something like that, because their offense,

415
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Speaker 3: it's like pulling teeth. You don't want to give away

416
00:18:37,880 --> 00:18:40,280
Speaker 3: extra points. But the way this defense is playing in

417
00:18:40,320 --> 00:18:42,760
Speaker 3: the consistency of lowry when they get the ball into

418
00:18:42,800 --> 00:18:44,520
Speaker 3: the red zone. Am I crazy to think that they

419
00:18:44,520 --> 00:18:45,920
Speaker 3: can win this game by double digits?

420
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Speaker 5: I don't think it's crazy.

421
00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:50,119
Speaker 4: I have not bought into what I've seen from Miami

422
00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:53,720
Speaker 4: of Ohio this season. Offensively, the most original, uninspiring, non

423
00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:56,680
Speaker 4: dynamic offense that you could possibly draw up, and now

424
00:18:56,720 --> 00:18:59,920
Speaker 4: you're tasking a third string freshman quarterback he did care

425
00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:02,399
Speaker 4: which lightning in a bottle? Against Buffalo. Buffalo has played

426
00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:05,080
Speaker 4: such seat of your pants football all season. The turnovers,

427
00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:08,520
Speaker 4: the flippant nature with the ball just not getting stops. Defensively,

428
00:19:08,600 --> 00:19:10,720
Speaker 4: the most disappointing team in the MAC is Buffalo. He

429
00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:13,399
Speaker 4: caught lightning in a bottle against them, And then you know,

430
00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:16,399
Speaker 4: they did beat a hapless Ball State team in the

431
00:19:16,480 --> 00:19:19,000
Speaker 4: last game of the regular season at home. And now

432
00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:21,720
Speaker 4: you go into Ford Field in the MAC championship game

433
00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:24,800
Speaker 4: and line up against this elite Western Michigan defense, and

434
00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:27,320
Speaker 4: he's got to do it there under those lights. I

435
00:19:27,359 --> 00:19:30,520
Speaker 4: don't think so, Western Michigan. I look at this team

436
00:19:30,600 --> 00:19:34,000
Speaker 4: being vastly prepared this time around, after completely blowing a

437
00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:36,719
Speaker 4: game they played against Miami of Ohio earlier in the season,

438
00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:40,359
Speaker 4: their only conference loss this year. Western Michigan's defense is

439
00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:44,280
Speaker 4: elite in taking away what opposing offenses want to do.

440
00:19:44,359 --> 00:19:47,520
Speaker 4: They're great at making you feel uncomfortable in standardowns and

441
00:19:47,600 --> 00:19:50,600
Speaker 4: in third down. I look at Western Michigan thirty second

442
00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:54,440
Speaker 4: nationally in defensive success rate, thirty fourth against the run,

443
00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:57,760
Speaker 4: the pass rush. Nadeem Tucker and Rod McCrae, they are

444
00:19:57,840 --> 00:20:01,240
Speaker 4: coming after you. Seventeen sacks between the two of them

445
00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:04,239
Speaker 4: this year. Miami's gonna run the ball aton They run

446
00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:06,280
Speaker 4: the ball sixty one percent of the time on the season,

447
00:20:06,320 --> 00:20:08,159
Speaker 4: and I don't think that they're going to have to

448
00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:11,040
Speaker 4: be truly one dimensional here. But they're gonna run the ball,

449
00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:13,399
Speaker 4: and I don't think they're gonna have a tremendous amount

450
00:20:13,440 --> 00:20:16,800
Speaker 4: of explosivity on the ground. And so now you're tasking

451
00:20:17,600 --> 00:20:19,840
Speaker 4: a new quarterback, a young player who hasn't had a

452
00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:22,440
Speaker 4: ton of time in the seat, to have to make

453
00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:27,320
Speaker 4: plays in third, medium or longer against Western Michigan. I

454
00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:28,840
Speaker 4: don't think it's going to go very well. When I

455
00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:31,720
Speaker 4: look at Western Michigan offensively back to back games now

456
00:20:31,760 --> 00:20:34,600
Speaker 4: scoring thirty points. I like the creativity I've seen out

457
00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:37,440
Speaker 4: of this offense, specifically in the run game. Speaking of

458
00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:39,720
Speaker 4: the ground game, they are humming six hundred and forty

459
00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:42,719
Speaker 4: yards and nine rushing scores in the last two weeks.

460
00:20:43,640 --> 00:20:46,280
Speaker 4: You know, I would guess that Walt Bell and this

461
00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:48,800
Speaker 4: Broncos offense is going to have a little bit of

462
00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:51,440
Speaker 4: creativity in the dome setting. There's not gonna be any

463
00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:54,000
Speaker 4: weather to have to worry about, so I think they

464
00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:55,960
Speaker 4: dial up a few things that they can get some

465
00:20:56,080 --> 00:20:58,040
Speaker 4: creative ways to get the ball out to t leak

466
00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:02,840
Speaker 4: Williams and Blake Bosma in space. Let's go back and

467
00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:06,120
Speaker 4: look at that meeting last a couple weeks back earlier

468
00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:08,560
Speaker 4: in the season between Western Michigan and Miami of Ohio.

469
00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:12,600
Speaker 4: Western on the road was dominating seventeen to nine through

470
00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:15,639
Speaker 4: three quarters. Miami hadn't scored a touchdown. They had two

471
00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:18,600
Speaker 4: hundred and twenty total yards of offense through three quarters.

472
00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:21,480
Speaker 4: Western had an eight minute stretch of bad football. It

473
00:21:21,520 --> 00:21:24,640
Speaker 4: went touchdown, punt, touchdown, and they were kind of out

474
00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:27,359
Speaker 4: out of it. It was day Kwan Finn who was

475
00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:29,920
Speaker 4: the hero in that game. He dazzled in the fourth quarter.

476
00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:33,159
Speaker 4: His heroics won Miami of Ohio that ballgame.

477
00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:36,280
Speaker 5: He walked out on these guys. He's not there.

478
00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:38,840
Speaker 4: He's everyone's looking at each other in the fourth quarter

479
00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:39,720
Speaker 4: and you're down by eight.

480
00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:40,440
Speaker 2: You need to score.

481
00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:41,800
Speaker 5: Daikwan's not there.

482
00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:44,640
Speaker 4: So now it's going to be even tougher for this

483
00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:48,040
Speaker 4: offense to try to overcome adversity, which I think they'll

484
00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:49,919
Speaker 4: face against Western Michigan. I think this game is going

485
00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:52,639
Speaker 4: to be close. It's going to be lower scoring. You know,

486
00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:54,479
Speaker 4: I'd lean under if I had to play that, but

487
00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:57,080
Speaker 4: I like Western Michigan to win this game. Go find

488
00:21:57,080 --> 00:21:58,200
Speaker 4: the one and a half or if you want to

489
00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:00,840
Speaker 4: find a cheap money line minus one twenty. So I

490
00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:02,800
Speaker 4: think Western Michigan's going to win this game and claim

491
00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:03,440
Speaker 4: the MAC title.

492
00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:06,800
Speaker 3: Let's turn out to the Mountain West. You're going to

493
00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:10,840
Speaker 3: cover this one. This line confuses me. I don't understand

494
00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:13,240
Speaker 3: where the public sentiment. Maybe this is one of those

495
00:22:13,359 --> 00:22:16,680
Speaker 3: pure G five moments where the public's like, oh, Boise State,

496
00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:19,359
Speaker 3: they've owned the Mountain West for years. They clearly must

497
00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:23,359
Speaker 3: have the superior athletes, the superior game plan, coaching, quarterback play.

498
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:25,880
Speaker 2: That's not necessarily the case.

499
00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:28,199
Speaker 3: Yet here we are kind of solidified in the market

500
00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:30,399
Speaker 3: with them lay in four against the run and ReBs

501
00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:32,960
Speaker 3: who by the way, you know, if they don't give

502
00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:35,200
Speaker 3: up a late touchdown against New Mexico, they're an.

503
00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:36,040
Speaker 2: Eleven win team.

504
00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:39,000
Speaker 3: I know that they were, you know, fortunate in so

505
00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:41,919
Speaker 3: many instances, but this is a well coached team. This

506
00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:44,600
Speaker 3: is Dan Mullen with the right quarterback. The whole body

507
00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:48,359
Speaker 3: of work is on display here. A full season of Calandria.

508
00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:51,600
Speaker 3: He was able to really cut down on those dramatic

509
00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:54,800
Speaker 3: turnovers and turnover worthy plays that he had as time

510
00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:58,640
Speaker 3: at Virginia. Why is this number solidified with the Broncos

511
00:22:58,720 --> 00:22:59,280
Speaker 3: lay in four?

512
00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:00,880
Speaker 2: Is the wrong team favored here?

513
00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:02,720
Speaker 3: Well?

514
00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:04,119
Speaker 5: It's so funny how this played out.

515
00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:06,879
Speaker 4: Right, you get the all the metrics that are plugged

516
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:09,080
Speaker 4: into the computer and they run the algos and they

517
00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:12,240
Speaker 4: spit out this matchup for US again unl V versus

518
00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:14,359
Speaker 4: Boise State. I feel the pain for New Mexico and

519
00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:17,760
Speaker 4: San Diego State. It was really sad how that came

520
00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:21,080
Speaker 4: down to. It came down to computer rankings. You kind

521
00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:23,239
Speaker 4: of had that thought once, We kind of saw it

522
00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:26,359
Speaker 4: after the game shook out on Saturday, that New Mexico

523
00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:27,400
Speaker 4: might end up getting.

524
00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:29,560
Speaker 2: Screwed, and well, just a real quick duck.

525
00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:33,159
Speaker 3: I mean San Diego State that overtime performance where they

526
00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:37,240
Speaker 3: took one, two, three false starts in a row in

527
00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:40,400
Speaker 3: a game with their season on the line, and then

528
00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:43,159
Speaker 3: throw an uncatchable pass on their final down of the

529
00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:45,920
Speaker 3: entire season, like throw them right into the wood chipper.

530
00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:48,400
Speaker 2: I understand they had a great season, but this offense

531
00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:51,560
Speaker 2: was such a rough watch. My heart does not break

532
00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:52,960
Speaker 2: that they're not in the conference title game.

533
00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 3: New Mexico, on the other hand, though, I mean, did

534
00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:57,760
Speaker 3: anyone do a better job than ak? If you were

535
00:23:57,760 --> 00:23:59,960
Speaker 3: not voting for AC as National Coach of the Year,

536
00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:03,040
Speaker 3: then clearly you don't know ball because this guy walked

537
00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:06,160
Speaker 3: into a situation that they could have won two games

538
00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:08,480
Speaker 3: and no one would have blinked across the country.

539
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:09,920
Speaker 2: Instead, he flipped that.

540
00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:13,280
Speaker 3: From the win total to the lost column and put

541
00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:15,840
Speaker 3: them in a position to play for a conference championship.

542
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:18,200
Speaker 3: They got screwed by the computers, which you know, feels

543
00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:20,480
Speaker 3: like a throwback to the BCS days. But what an

544
00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:23,679
Speaker 3: incredible job. Like people should be beating the drum for

545
00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:25,119
Speaker 3: this guy to be filling.

546
00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:27,520
Speaker 2: Forget about a good G five job, he should be at.

547
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:30,119
Speaker 3: A quality P four job at this point. All that

548
00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:32,640
Speaker 3: being said, I don't care that the assets are not there.

549
00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:34,960
Speaker 3: The Lobos did get hosed, though, and they're coming off

550
00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:37,399
Speaker 3: one of the swaggiest looks of the entire season, that

551
00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:39,560
Speaker 3: turquoise alternate uniform.

552
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:40,960
Speaker 2: They got to find a way to wear that like

553
00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:41,640
Speaker 2: every other game.

554
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:46,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, Land of Enchantment throwbacks, those were sharp. You know,

555
00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:49,560
Speaker 4: it's interesting we get this matchup again, though, and just

556
00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:52,320
Speaker 4: one where it seems like one team has the other

557
00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:56,080
Speaker 4: team's number ten straight wins for Boise in the series.

558
00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:58,440
Speaker 4: We saw this game play out fifty six thirty one

559
00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:01,239
Speaker 4: earlier this season. Madsen's going to give it a go.

560
00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:03,840
Speaker 4: Trying to come back from the devastating lower leg injury

561
00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:07,000
Speaker 4: which sidelined him for several games. He's only had a

562
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:08,320
Speaker 4: month worth of recovery time.

563
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:08,600
Speaker 5: Here.

564
00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:11,680
Speaker 4: You know, UNLV's gonna run the ball. Calandria and Jet

565
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:14,919
Speaker 4: Thomas have been awesome in the last four weeks. We

566
00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:18,200
Speaker 4: should see them have success here against a Broncos stop

567
00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:21,320
Speaker 4: unit that is just one hundred and thirty one hundred

568
00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:23,960
Speaker 4: and twenty fifth this year against the run. So can

569
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:27,000
Speaker 4: UNLV outpossess Boise here and take advantage of the week

570
00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:31,960
Speaker 4: Boise d line. I imagine they would have some offensive success.

571
00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:36,080
Speaker 4: I wonder if the UNLV defensive improvements that we've seen

572
00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:39,120
Speaker 4: over the last four weeks are legitimate. Does this defense

573
00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:42,560
Speaker 4: have a chance to provide some resistance or is this

574
00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:45,920
Speaker 4: matchup just completely going to be destined to end up

575
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:48,480
Speaker 4: like the last several in this series, which would be

576
00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:52,320
Speaker 4: another convincing Boise win. I looked into it, Breezy, but

577
00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:53,560
Speaker 4: I want to hear what you think and then I'll

578
00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 4: go ahead.

579
00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:54,600
Speaker 5: And share my thoughts.

580
00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:57,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not sure this is the right move at

581
00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:00,760
Speaker 3: quarterback at this juncture in the seas to try to

582
00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:05,000
Speaker 3: force mattson back where you know Max Cuthford just played

583
00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:08,000
Speaker 3: his best game as a student athlete.

584
00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:09,640
Speaker 2: Like maybe just go ahead with the hot hand.

585
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:12,639
Speaker 3: I understand it was against Utah State, but everything in

586
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:15,960
Speaker 3: terms of pressure was on him to perform and he

587
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:16,520
Speaker 3: bawled out.

588
00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:17,400
Speaker 2: So I don't love that.

589
00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:20,960
Speaker 3: And then, you know, I just think in terms of

590
00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:23,919
Speaker 3: known quantities in this game, yes, you and l these

591
00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:26,680
Speaker 3: defense leaves a lot to be desired, but their run game,

592
00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:29,199
Speaker 3: I think gives them so much stability. And this is

593
00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:31,480
Speaker 3: just not the Boise team of last year. It's not

594
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:34,880
Speaker 3: the Boise teams of Chris Peterson or even Brian Harson,

595
00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:38,120
Speaker 3: where they had more of an offensive identity. They had

596
00:26:38,119 --> 00:26:41,600
Speaker 3: more toughness on defense. This team got bullied plenty of

597
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:44,600
Speaker 3: times this year, and I think the fact of the

598
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:46,760
Speaker 3: matter is they kind of limped and backed their way

599
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:49,920
Speaker 3: into this title game playing last year for a chance

600
00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:51,480
Speaker 3: to go to the college football Playoff.

601
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:54,600
Speaker 2: The juice is clearly going to be on the UNLV side.

602
00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:58,040
Speaker 3: Mullen, by the way, I think, has been either really

603
00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:00,879
Speaker 3: savvy in terms of keeping his coaching options on the

604
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:04,320
Speaker 3: carousel under wraps, or he's staying and he's just been

605
00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:05,560
Speaker 3: locked in the entire time.

606
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:08,120
Speaker 2: Either way, there's not been a media circus.

607
00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:10,760
Speaker 3: There's been an opportunity to continue a two year run

608
00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:14,000
Speaker 3: for UNLV that's just been some of the best seasons

609
00:27:14,040 --> 00:27:17,280
Speaker 3: in program history. I think they're the right side in this.

610
00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:19,600
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go moneyline on the run in REVS. I

611
00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:22,679
Speaker 3: also think the brand of football they play, if it

612
00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:25,320
Speaker 3: does break into a high scoring affair, there's gonna be

613
00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:28,080
Speaker 3: multiple live betting opportunities if they go down by three

614
00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:30,120
Speaker 3: or seven in this game. If you feel a little

615
00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:31,520
Speaker 3: bit of buyers or more so he didn't buy him

616
00:27:31,520 --> 00:27:33,600
Speaker 3: at kickoff, I think there's time to get in on

617
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:36,199
Speaker 3: UNLV here, and once again it's going to be a

618
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 3: pre kick bet and a live bet opportunity for me.

619
00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:39,280
Speaker 2: On a dog.

620
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:43,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I'm interested to see if UNLV's defensive improvements

621
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:45,480
Speaker 4: we've seen over the last month or for real, they've

622
00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 4: held three other last four opponents under seventeen total points

623
00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:51,679
Speaker 4: or less. Hawaii couldn't get a first down on these guys.

624
00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:53,919
Speaker 4: It's going to be really interesting to see if they

625
00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:56,199
Speaker 4: can get home. I think one of the things that

626
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:59,040
Speaker 4: we've seen is we've seen them play in their opponents

627
00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:02,479
Speaker 4: backfield so far frequently the last month. You look at

628
00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:05,280
Speaker 4: the first matchup and sire gains and some of the

629
00:28:05,280 --> 00:28:07,520
Speaker 4: things Boise he was able to do on the ground,

630
00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:11,600
Speaker 4: not getting touched until three or four yards past the

631
00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:14,639
Speaker 4: line of scrimmage. I think, really UNLV is going to

632
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:19,679
Speaker 4: have to step up in their run defense, forcing the

633
00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:22,200
Speaker 4: ballcarrier to be tackled, or to at least make people

634
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:26,240
Speaker 4: miss in the backfield before getting to the second level.

635
00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:28,440
Speaker 4: Those are just things that they couldn't do the first

636
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:30,240
Speaker 4: time around, but we've seen them do that over the

637
00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:33,840
Speaker 4: last month. So you know, you look at Paul Gunther

638
00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:37,000
Speaker 4: and that defense have certainly made some adjustments in season

639
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:40,080
Speaker 4: to improve. I think the defense has significantly improved from

640
00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:43,120
Speaker 4: the first meeting. I can't say the same about Boise states.

641
00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:46,280
Speaker 4: I don't know about Maddox. I don't think he's fully healthy.

642
00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:48,040
Speaker 4: I don't think he'll be mobile. I think it could

643
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 4: be real trouble here in the middle of the second

644
00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:52,400
Speaker 4: quarter when he can't move around, and we might end

645
00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:53,880
Speaker 4: up seeing them pull the plug and go in a

646
00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:57,360
Speaker 4: different direction back to cutforth in game. I wouldn't be

647
00:28:57,400 --> 00:29:00,479
Speaker 4: surprised all about this, you know, Boise going to try

648
00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:04,080
Speaker 4: to run the football here as well. It'll come down

649
00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:06,600
Speaker 4: to if they gash UNLV on the ground, if they

650
00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:09,000
Speaker 4: get the explosive runs like they did in the first meeting.

651
00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:10,160
Speaker 5: I don't know.

652
00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:13,400
Speaker 4: I think part of me believes this UNLV defense has

653
00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:15,560
Speaker 4: improved and some of the improvements we've seen are real,

654
00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:19,920
Speaker 4: and I think these guys have a lot to prove.

655
00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:21,600
Speaker 4: I think they have an opportunity to go out and

656
00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:24,040
Speaker 4: do it. But I mean, you look at the way

657
00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:26,560
Speaker 4: that this defense has played against the opponents that they've

658
00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:29,360
Speaker 4: had on their schedule the last several weeks. Really did

659
00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:32,520
Speaker 4: a great job of limiting and shutting down Utah State

660
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:34,800
Speaker 4: in the second half of that game played in Nevada,

661
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:38,360
Speaker 4: really competitively. Again, Hawaii couldn't get a first down. It's

662
00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:40,480
Speaker 4: an improved unit, and I think this game script will

663
00:29:40,560 --> 00:29:42,160
Speaker 4: play out a little bit differently than we saw the

664
00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:43,760
Speaker 4: first time round. I think people are running to the

665
00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:47,520
Speaker 4: window thinking Boise State is free money here, and I

666
00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:49,840
Speaker 4: don't think it's going to necessarily play out that way.

667
00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:53,000
Speaker 4: So fascinating watch on Friday night. It could be a

668
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:55,400
Speaker 4: little weather, maybe a little snow that hits the ground

669
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:58,400
Speaker 4: in Boise but I think UNLV will have a game

670
00:29:58,440 --> 00:30:01,280
Speaker 4: plan to be able to outpossess Broncos in this one,

671
00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:03,920
Speaker 4: and they should have a ton of success on the ground.

672
00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:04,160
Speaker 2: Here.

673
00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:07,400
Speaker 3: Four conference title games down, a lot of them type,

674
00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:08,960
Speaker 3: a lot of them, we'd like the dogs.

675
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:10,240
Speaker 2: Then we get the Sun Belt.

676
00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:13,880
Speaker 3: Championship where James Madison is laying a huge number north

677
00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:16,280
Speaker 3: of three touchdowns against Troy, the total send at forty

678
00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:17,040
Speaker 3: seven and a half.

679
00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:19,160
Speaker 2: And it's been a weird year for.

680
00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:21,640
Speaker 3: James Madison because they came in with the preseason hype,

681
00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:24,200
Speaker 3: but their early season schedule was circled against.

682
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:27,200
Speaker 2: Louisville and against Liberty Louisville they blew an opportunity.

683
00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:30,080
Speaker 3: You know, they had an early trick play touchdown pass

684
00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:33,240
Speaker 3: that was underthrown. Then they had some issues getting the

685
00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:35,120
Speaker 3: passing game going in the second half. They lose by

686
00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:38,000
Speaker 3: two touchdowns. Then the Liberty game ends up being meaningless

687
00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:40,920
Speaker 3: because Liberty stunk this year. So they just have flown

688
00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:44,640
Speaker 3: under the radar really for three months. And now finally

689
00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:46,840
Speaker 3: people are waking up and saying, oh, if Duke wins

690
00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:50,200
Speaker 3: the ACC Championship, and James Madison at this point is

691
00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:52,960
Speaker 3: twelve and one. I guess the Dukes get to be in. Yes,

692
00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:54,920
Speaker 3: the Dukes do get to be in. They've won ten

693
00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:57,080
Speaker 3: straight games. And by the way, when you dig into

694
00:30:57,080 --> 00:30:59,719
Speaker 3: it deeper, in terms of their offensive explosion in their

695
00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:01,840
Speaker 3: last six games, they're averaging forty eight and a half

696
00:31:01,880 --> 00:31:04,760
Speaker 3: points per game. And the difference is that Barnett who

697
00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:06,800
Speaker 3: came back from that gruesome leg injury.

698
00:31:07,080 --> 00:31:08,680
Speaker 2: There was always some thoughts.

699
00:31:08,360 --> 00:31:11,640
Speaker 3: That maybe they're just gonna go with the transfer quarterback

700
00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:14,160
Speaker 3: who didn't get his bag at UNLV that was coached

701
00:31:14,200 --> 00:31:16,800
Speaker 3: up by Chesney at Holy Cross, Sluk is gonna be

702
00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:17,200
Speaker 3: our guy.

703
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:18,880
Speaker 2: Well, he was their guy for about.

704
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:21,760
Speaker 3: Fourteen minutes of game action and then they went to Barnett.

705
00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:23,800
Speaker 3: But the thing about it is he needed to get

706
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:26,400
Speaker 3: one hundred percent healthy to show everything that he had

707
00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:26,960
Speaker 3: in his bag.

708
00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:28,560
Speaker 2: His legs were so critical.

709
00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:30,800
Speaker 3: You could just see it in terms of him being

710
00:31:30,800 --> 00:31:34,040
Speaker 3: a rhythm passer, short arming throws in the early going

711
00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:37,080
Speaker 3: in September, in early October. But he has turned the

712
00:31:37,120 --> 00:31:39,320
Speaker 3: corner as a passer and you're seeing him in the

713
00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:41,400
Speaker 3: run game when he pulls it down, he's not just

714
00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 3: getting four or five yards and sliding, he's cutting. He's

715
00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:48,239
Speaker 3: using his full range of motion, lateral agility, all of it.

716
00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:51,320
Speaker 3: So with that back and with the addition of Wayne Knight,

717
00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:54,800
Speaker 3: who has just been an all purpose monster, this offense

718
00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 3: is really dangerous, one of the best in the G five,

719
00:31:57,520 --> 00:32:00,360
Speaker 3: and I can see why sportsbooks are respecting him to

720
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:03,200
Speaker 3: the degree that they're laying this big number here. And

721
00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:05,880
Speaker 3: the thing of it is like, just at first blush,

722
00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:08,400
Speaker 3: this seems like too many points in a conference championship game.

723
00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:10,520
Speaker 3: But I can't get over the fact that Troy scored

724
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:13,440
Speaker 3: ten points against Arkansas State. Who I mean, let's do

725
00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:16,640
Speaker 3: the celebration there from the kids like that defense stinks

726
00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:19,200
Speaker 3: and then old dominion they got shut out.

727
00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:20,400
Speaker 2: I know they had injuries.

728
00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:22,320
Speaker 3: I know they had a lot to overcome in terms

729
00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:25,360
Speaker 3: of game planning with different quarterbacks and having injuries along

730
00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:29,400
Speaker 3: the offensive line, But I just don't see them being

731
00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:32,160
Speaker 3: able to hang with James Madison if they play their

732
00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:34,800
Speaker 3: best football, And why wouldn't they come with the juice here?

733
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:37,360
Speaker 2: Chesney's not been poached an opportunity.

734
00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:38,440
Speaker 3: To go to the College foo Bowl playoff. This has

735
00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:40,400
Speaker 3: really been a program ever since they elevated from the

736
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:45,680
Speaker 3: FCS level. They've been basically yearning for national respect. First

737
00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:47,480
Speaker 3: it was it's not fair that we can't win the

738
00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:49,760
Speaker 3: Sun Belt as we transition. Then it was can we

739
00:32:49,800 --> 00:32:51,840
Speaker 3: win a Sun Belt championship? Can we get to the.

740
00:32:51,760 --> 00:32:52,680
Speaker 2: College Buble Playoff?

741
00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:55,880
Speaker 3: It's all there for this team that I think is ascending.

742
00:32:56,400 --> 00:32:58,240
Speaker 3: Twenty three and a half, it's two rich for my blood.

743
00:32:58,240 --> 00:33:00,520
Speaker 3: In terms of a pre kick, I'm really hoping that

744
00:33:00,560 --> 00:33:04,080
Speaker 3: Troy can get an empty possession from James Madison, maybe

745
00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:05,760
Speaker 3: go down and get a field goal, get this to

746
00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:08,560
Speaker 3: like seventeen or something like that, and then I'll hop in.

747
00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:11,120
Speaker 3: I think that's the right number here. My power ratings

748
00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:13,400
Speaker 3: call for this to be south of twenty. So twenty

749
00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:15,840
Speaker 3: three and a half blown past two key numbers. There's

750
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:18,000
Speaker 3: a little too much. What are your thoughts here in

751
00:33:18,040 --> 00:33:20,440
Speaker 3: the Sunbelt? And do you agree that this James Madison

752
00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:23,440
Speaker 3: team is just criminally underrated in their current constitution?

753
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:26,000
Speaker 2: Get that little constitution not to James Madison.

754
00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:28,080
Speaker 3: The facts of the matter is they're just such a

755
00:33:28,080 --> 00:33:30,560
Speaker 3: better team than they were on October.

756
00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:34,280
Speaker 4: First, Yeah, and very much under the radar with the media,

757
00:33:34,400 --> 00:33:38,880
Speaker 4: and really quite criminal what the College Football Playoff Committee

758
00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:41,640
Speaker 4: did ranking two lane ahead of them and not even

759
00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:44,560
Speaker 4: ranking James Madison in the first couple of sets of

760
00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:47,120
Speaker 4: rankings was really disappointing. And I thought they played much

761
00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:50,040
Speaker 4: better against Louisville than the final score. Had the lead

762
00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:51,800
Speaker 4: at half, had a chance to punch one in on

763
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:54,720
Speaker 4: the goal line late, had a couple turnovers that were

764
00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:58,280
Speaker 4: really costly in that one, but shut down everything Louisville wanted.

765
00:33:58,320 --> 00:33:59,880
Speaker 4: That same Louisville team that went out and beat my

766
00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:04,320
Speaker 4: handily shut them down entirely for about three and a

767
00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:06,800
Speaker 4: half quarters. This one seems one sided.

768
00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:07,080
Speaker 2: Jam.

769
00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:08,919
Speaker 4: You should win this game, and should win this game

770
00:34:08,960 --> 00:34:11,760
Speaker 4: with margin. But we have seen the Dukes play around

771
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:14,720
Speaker 4: at times this year, and they've found themselves in closer

772
00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:17,799
Speaker 4: games than expected. Liberty they struggled with for a half.

773
00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:20,960
Speaker 4: Georgia State they won by seven, Louisiana Lafayette gave them

774
00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:23,680
Speaker 4: a game. Marshall Wazoo. The list goes on and on.

775
00:34:24,840 --> 00:34:27,600
Speaker 4: Now we get the Bob Chesney distractions. Could it spill

776
00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:31,480
Speaker 4: over here? You have to assume that he's exerted some

777
00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 4: amount of his bandwidth in his new gig and has

778
00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:37,560
Speaker 4: been peeking ahead to what's coming down the pipe for

779
00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:38,520
Speaker 4: him with.

780
00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:39,239
Speaker 5: His new job.

781
00:34:39,400 --> 00:34:41,960
Speaker 4: But yeah, I don't know. Maybe they are fully locked in,

782
00:34:42,040 --> 00:34:44,799
Speaker 4: maybe not. I wonder what this group is thinking. This

783
00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:49,120
Speaker 4: James Madison defense is nasty first nationally and defensive success rate,

784
00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:53,160
Speaker 4: second in pass play success rate, eighth in preventing explosive plays.

785
00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:56,960
Speaker 4: Troy is really going to be up against it offensively.

786
00:34:57,680 --> 00:34:59,640
Speaker 4: But you know what, those guys are on scholarship too

787
00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:01,560
Speaker 4: over the at Troy, and we've seen them play up

788
00:35:01,600 --> 00:35:03,800
Speaker 4: time and time again. They had the lead against Clemson

789
00:35:04,120 --> 00:35:07,200
Speaker 4: at the half in Death Valley, they played Memphis seven

790
00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:10,879
Speaker 4: to seven after Goose had gone out with injury, seven

791
00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:12,840
Speaker 4: to seven at the half and had a couple chances

792
00:35:12,880 --> 00:35:15,200
Speaker 4: to put a few points on the board, didn't come

793
00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:18,759
Speaker 4: to fruition. You know what, our darling, Southern Miss. They

794
00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:20,560
Speaker 4: went down there and beat those guys on the field,

795
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:22,640
Speaker 4: never trailed in the game, extended the margin in the

796
00:35:22,640 --> 00:35:25,799
Speaker 4: fourth quarter. So they've played up at times when they've

797
00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:29,520
Speaker 4: needed to. Two games now where Goose has looked pretty good.

798
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:34,000
Speaker 4: I mean he did it against Southern Miss, one of

799
00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:35,920
Speaker 4: the best teams in the Sun Belt Conference. We all

800
00:35:35,920 --> 00:35:37,920
Speaker 4: thought it was going to be Southern Miss here and

801
00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:41,160
Speaker 4: Goose and Troy had other ideas I agree with you

802
00:35:41,239 --> 00:35:44,320
Speaker 4: that this one could could possibly get ugly in the

803
00:35:44,360 --> 00:35:46,840
Speaker 4: second half. James Madison has allowed a grand total of

804
00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:49,959
Speaker 4: two points in the second half in their last couple

805
00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:52,160
Speaker 4: of meetings. They just don't allow points in the second half.

806
00:35:53,360 --> 00:35:55,640
Speaker 4: My power ratings cannot get to this number. My power

807
00:35:55,719 --> 00:36:01,120
Speaker 4: ratings make this nineteen point three. We've seen very little

808
00:36:01,640 --> 00:36:04,479
Speaker 4: movement outside of this move into twenty three and a half.

809
00:36:04,520 --> 00:36:06,319
Speaker 4: If this were to get to twenty four and a half,

810
00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:08,040
Speaker 4: I would take a swing with Troy here.

811
00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:09,520
Speaker 5: That's my by point.

812
00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:12,480
Speaker 4: Otherwise, if we don't get the twenty four and a half,

813
00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:16,440
Speaker 4: I'll probably man maybe consider making a live play. I

814
00:36:16,960 --> 00:36:20,040
Speaker 4: think this number is overinflated. You are certainly paying attacks

815
00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:23,680
Speaker 4: to play the brand and to play jmu here. They're

816
00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:25,960
Speaker 4: the better team, that the stronger team. They're gonna win

817
00:36:26,000 --> 00:36:28,200
Speaker 4: this game. It's just a matter of how much. I

818
00:36:28,280 --> 00:36:30,839
Speaker 4: kind of feel like their chance to impress the committee

819
00:36:30,840 --> 00:36:32,360
Speaker 4: and really make a statement.

820
00:36:32,080 --> 00:36:34,160
Speaker 5: Was a couple of weeks back when they hosted Wazoo.

821
00:36:34,480 --> 00:36:36,680
Speaker 4: They should have won. That should have gone out and

822
00:36:36,680 --> 00:36:38,839
Speaker 4: tried to win that game by four touchdowns. Instead, they

823
00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:40,560
Speaker 4: were down by ten in the fourth quarter and had

824
00:36:40,600 --> 00:36:42,680
Speaker 4: to really rally and come back in order to win.

825
00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:46,359
Speaker 4: So I don't know, I kind of think Troy can

826
00:36:46,400 --> 00:36:48,400
Speaker 4: give them a little bit more of a fight than

827
00:36:48,440 --> 00:36:51,120
Speaker 4: what everyone else has given them credit for. Here twenty

828
00:36:51,120 --> 00:36:52,880
Speaker 4: four and a half, I'm in on the Trojans.

829
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:56,400
Speaker 3: All right, that'll do it for today's episode, Championship Week

830
00:36:56,560 --> 00:36:57,960
Speaker 3: episode now in the books.

831
00:36:57,960 --> 00:36:59,680
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for listening. You can do a

832
00:36:59,719 --> 00:37:01,439
Speaker 2: couple things to support our show.

833
00:37:01,520 --> 00:37:04,120
Speaker 3: First, you can go ahead and hit those quick slip

834
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:06,360
Speaker 3: links in the video and episode description to tail some

835
00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:09,799
Speaker 3: of the bets that you heard here in today's episode.

836
00:37:09,840 --> 00:37:12,319
Speaker 3: You can also sign up for Action Pro, which gives

837
00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:14,319
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838
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Speaker 3: of our bets. That's Colin, Stucky Duck and myself getting

839
00:37:17,560 --> 00:37:20,239
Speaker 3: the best bets at the best prices. Last piece, you

840
00:37:20,239 --> 00:37:22,000
Speaker 3: can also throw us a five star rating and review

841
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Speaker 3: wherever you listen to the pod.

842
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Speaker 2: We would be tickled if you did. We can go

843
00:37:26,520 --> 00:37:28,080
Speaker 2: ahead and throw you some futures.

844
00:37:28,160 --> 00:37:30,800
Speaker 3: This is going to continue to roll right into college

845
00:37:30,840 --> 00:37:33,360
Speaker 3: basketball season, and that's the last piece of it that

846
00:37:33,400 --> 00:37:34,080
Speaker 3: we want to let.

847
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:34,480
Speaker 2: You guys know.

848
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:38,439
Speaker 3: As these episodes get spread out over bowl season, we're

849
00:37:38,440 --> 00:37:41,120
Speaker 3: going to start peppering in more college basketball coverage, which

850
00:37:41,160 --> 00:37:43,239
Speaker 3: is not just for me and Stuck and the three

851
00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:45,680
Speaker 3: Man Weave and Greg Waudell, but also our man Duck

852
00:37:45,760 --> 00:37:47,880
Speaker 3: is going to be on board as well, and we

853
00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:50,560
Speaker 3: really appreciate everyone interacting with us. We've got the weekend

854
00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:53,000
Speaker 3: warm up on Friday. I'm going to talk through some

855
00:37:53,040 --> 00:37:54,759
Speaker 3: of the live plays, not just for the G five

856
00:37:54,800 --> 00:37:57,360
Speaker 3: title games, but also for the Power four title games

857
00:37:57,440 --> 00:37:58,520
Speaker 3: on Saturday.

858
00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:00,320
Speaker 2: All right, that's it for the show. Thank you so

859
00:38:00,400 --> 00:38:01,040
Speaker 2: much for listening.

860
00:38:01,040 --> 00:38:19,319
Speaker 1: It is always best of luck of all your bets.

861
00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:24,880
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

862
00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:27,680
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

863
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