1
00:00:02,640 --> 00:00:05,320
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Penel Podcast. I'm Paul swing you

2
00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:07,640
Speaker 1: along with my co host Lisa Brahma Waits. Each day

3
00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:10,240
Speaker 1: we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for

4
00:00:10,280 --> 00:00:12,520
Speaker 1: you and your money, whether at the grocery store or

5
00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:15,480
Speaker 1: the trading floor. Find a Bloomberg Penl podcast on Apple

6
00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:17,959
Speaker 1: podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as

7
00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:22,720
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com. The big deal of the day

8
00:00:22,800 --> 00:00:26,320
Speaker 1: AVY agreeing to buy Allergan for sixty three billion dollars.

9
00:00:26,320 --> 00:00:30,639
Speaker 1: ADVY shares down fourteen point six percent, Algan shares surging.

10
00:00:31,920 --> 00:00:34,400
Speaker 1: Joining us here in our bloombergant to Active broker Studios

11
00:00:34,440 --> 00:00:37,040
Speaker 1: Max Neeson. As always, we love having you and biotech,

12
00:00:37,080 --> 00:00:41,040
Speaker 1: pharma and healthcare calumnists with Bloomberg opinion. Is this a

13
00:00:41,120 --> 00:00:45,000
Speaker 1: bad deal for AV I? I think so. I see

14
00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:48,319
Speaker 1: why investors are reacting the way that they are. So

15
00:00:48,440 --> 00:00:50,960
Speaker 1: the kind of motivation of the steel is that A

16
00:00:51,159 --> 00:00:56,920
Speaker 1: V's biggest product a Humira. It's a blockbusters for inflammatories

17
00:00:57,000 --> 00:01:00,200
Speaker 1: these like arthritis. It's already starting to face buy a

18
00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:03,240
Speaker 1: similar competition in Europe and that's coming in America in

19
00:01:04,120 --> 00:01:07,000
Speaker 1: three So that's gonna blow just a giant hole in

20
00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:10,479
Speaker 1: its revenue and you know there there's just not enough

21
00:01:10,520 --> 00:01:12,360
Speaker 1: and its pipeline to deal with that. So this is

22
00:01:12,360 --> 00:01:14,640
Speaker 1: a way of kind of getting some replacement for that.

23
00:01:14,920 --> 00:01:17,280
Speaker 1: The question is whether this is actually going to help

24
00:01:17,360 --> 00:01:20,440
Speaker 1: in the long term. You have Alegan with the lead

25
00:01:20,480 --> 00:01:23,720
Speaker 1: product in Botox, where where you know sales are likely

26
00:01:23,760 --> 00:01:26,920
Speaker 1: to be pretty durable but are starting to level off

27
00:01:26,959 --> 00:01:29,800
Speaker 1: and there's some competitive threats. So while you get kind

28
00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:34,679
Speaker 1: of this big you know, cost cutting opportunity and a

29
00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:38,320
Speaker 1: big EPs boost upfront, the question is what this does

30
00:01:38,440 --> 00:01:41,000
Speaker 1: for the company in the long run. Yeah, it's interesting.

31
00:01:41,000 --> 00:01:43,000
Speaker 1: I'm just looking at the five year charge for Elegant.

32
00:01:43,000 --> 00:01:44,800
Speaker 1: It's not pretty. It's been a kind of a steady

33
00:01:44,880 --> 00:01:47,760
Speaker 1: decline down from you three change down to where we

34
00:01:47,760 --> 00:01:50,680
Speaker 1: were today. Um, So obviously the market pricing in the

35
00:01:50,800 --> 00:01:54,480
Speaker 1: slower growth as you mentioned for the both TX business. Dude,

36
00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:57,440
Speaker 1: does this combined company are they having any discussions about, Gee,

37
00:01:57,480 --> 00:01:59,800
Speaker 1: now we're bigger, we've got more resources, we can invest

38
00:01:59,880 --> 00:02:01,520
Speaker 1: more are in R and D and try to drive

39
00:02:01,560 --> 00:02:04,240
Speaker 1: our growth that way. Yes, So that this sort of

40
00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:07,400
Speaker 1: contradictory messaging on this On one hand, you know, in

41
00:02:07,520 --> 00:02:09,800
Speaker 1: order for this deal to pay off, you're gonna need

42
00:02:09,919 --> 00:02:12,920
Speaker 1: to have big cost energies, You're gonna have to cut

43
00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:16,000
Speaker 1: back on R and D. But then at the same time,

44
00:02:16,800 --> 00:02:18,760
Speaker 1: you know more cash is going to be flowing into

45
00:02:18,880 --> 00:02:21,480
Speaker 1: R and D. So so the net of that is

46
00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:24,840
Speaker 1: is a little bit confusing. And you're not buying Allergan

47
00:02:25,000 --> 00:02:27,880
Speaker 1: for its R and D capability. This is a company

48
00:02:27,919 --> 00:02:31,120
Speaker 1: that really deliberately had a different model. We go out

49
00:02:31,200 --> 00:02:33,120
Speaker 1: and we look for the best science out there, and

50
00:02:33,120 --> 00:02:35,600
Speaker 1: then we we bring it in. They aren't developing drugs

51
00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:37,280
Speaker 1: on their own, so kind of the fit and the

52
00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:40,920
Speaker 1: added capability doesn't really come from that. It just theoretically

53
00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:44,240
Speaker 1: comes from having more cash to spend on everything apart

54
00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:46,040
Speaker 1: from what they're you know, they spent on the deal

55
00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:48,359
Speaker 1: and they're gonna be spending on surfacing their debt. Now.

56
00:02:48,480 --> 00:02:50,600
Speaker 1: So let's zoom out a little bit because this deal

57
00:02:50,680 --> 00:02:53,720
Speaker 1: comes at a sort of interesting time in the political cycle.

58
00:02:53,760 --> 00:02:56,440
Speaker 1: President Trump coming out with an executive order this week

59
00:02:56,800 --> 00:03:00,200
Speaker 1: talking about trying to make medical pricing more trade it's

60
00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:03,720
Speaker 1: parent and thus lowering it. I have to wonder whether

61
00:03:03,760 --> 00:03:07,160
Speaker 1: a deal like this between two big pharmaceutical companies would

62
00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:10,440
Speaker 1: be viewed pretty negatively by any Trust officials given where

63
00:03:10,480 --> 00:03:13,600
Speaker 1: we are in the election cycle. So I think that

64
00:03:13,639 --> 00:03:15,840
Speaker 1: this one is is actually going to be all right,

65
00:03:15,880 --> 00:03:18,720
Speaker 1: even though, as we saw just yesterday, cell Gene is

66
00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:21,520
Speaker 1: gonna have to sell off a drug in order to

67
00:03:21,560 --> 00:03:24,040
Speaker 1: get its deal with with our cyper Stal Myers is

68
00:03:24,080 --> 00:03:25,600
Speaker 1: selling a cell Gene drug to get that deal to

69
00:03:25,639 --> 00:03:28,000
Speaker 1: go through this one, there's not a tremendous amount of

70
00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:31,480
Speaker 1: overlap in the things that the two companies work on

71
00:03:31,520 --> 00:03:33,640
Speaker 1: in the areas that they focus on. On one hand

72
00:03:33,680 --> 00:03:35,800
Speaker 1: that that kind of brings the strategic fit into question.

73
00:03:36,040 --> 00:03:39,680
Speaker 1: It probably does give them an easier time with any

74
00:03:39,680 --> 00:03:41,800
Speaker 1: Trust officials. And one of the reasons that this does

75
00:03:41,920 --> 00:03:43,400
Speaker 1: sort of appeal at least a little bit is that

76
00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:46,880
Speaker 1: Allergan is focused on medical aesthetics, on you know, botox

77
00:03:46,920 --> 00:03:49,400
Speaker 1: for the face, cool sculpting. Those are things that are

78
00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:54,120
Speaker 1: are often not really pressured by by you know, drug

79
00:03:54,200 --> 00:03:57,600
Speaker 1: costs scrutiny in the same way. I just I'm struggling

80
00:03:57,640 --> 00:04:00,840
Speaker 1: to understand if this doesn't necessarily lead higher costs and

81
00:04:00,880 --> 00:04:04,840
Speaker 1: better negotiating power for these two big pharmaceutical companies other

82
00:04:04,920 --> 00:04:08,600
Speaker 1: than just job efficiency. In otherwords, job cuts, what are

83
00:04:08,640 --> 00:04:12,360
Speaker 1: what's what's the value proposition here? Then, so the this

84
00:04:12,440 --> 00:04:15,720
Speaker 1: is pretty clearly a financially driven transaction. They just think

85
00:04:15,760 --> 00:04:18,160
Speaker 1: that they can um you know, benefits from the cash

86
00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:21,320
Speaker 1: flow and and you know, by cutting eventually drive some

87
00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:26,359
Speaker 1: kind of return and diversify away from from Humira. But

88
00:04:26,480 --> 00:04:29,120
Speaker 1: the big question is, you know, by the time that

89
00:04:29,200 --> 00:04:31,880
Speaker 1: they're really going to need that diversification, how much is

90
00:04:31,880 --> 00:04:35,240
Speaker 1: gonna be there from from Allergan. You know, Botox has

91
00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:38,159
Speaker 1: to keep delivering and stay durable, as do a number

92
00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:41,800
Speaker 1: of other products, and uh, you know, there there there

93
00:04:41,839 --> 00:04:44,280
Speaker 1: has to be maybe something from the pipeline, and it's

94
00:04:44,320 --> 00:04:47,719
Speaker 1: a pretty weak roster of drugs for the future that

95
00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:50,120
Speaker 1: they're getting here. I'm just not sure that you know

96
00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:53,320
Speaker 1: that the sixteen or so billion in revenue that Allergan

97
00:04:53,400 --> 00:04:56,159
Speaker 1: has now is going to be there when when Abby

98
00:04:56,279 --> 00:04:59,480
Speaker 1: really needs it. Yeah, I'm looking at Allergan stock right now,

99
00:04:59,480 --> 00:05:02,040
Speaker 1: it's about the you thirteen or fourteen percent below the

100
00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:04,960
Speaker 1: deal price, suggesting that I guess investors don't think, at

101
00:05:05,000 --> 00:05:07,400
Speaker 1: least in the near term, anybody's going to come in

102
00:05:07,440 --> 00:05:09,320
Speaker 1: and try to top the bid or anything like that.

103
00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:11,320
Speaker 1: So it kind of goes to the issue of maybe

104
00:05:11,360 --> 00:05:14,000
Speaker 1: not a lot of interest in this company, and I

105
00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:16,359
Speaker 1: think Max's, as you stated, it kind of looks just

106
00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:18,599
Speaker 1: you know, there aren't a lot of synergy. So maybe

107
00:05:18,600 --> 00:05:21,640
Speaker 1: this is, as you mentioned, just a diversification move on

108
00:05:21,640 --> 00:05:23,920
Speaker 1: on the part of Abby. And if the question is

109
00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:27,240
Speaker 1: is it worth sixty billion dollars to diversify your redness stream?

110
00:05:27,279 --> 00:05:30,200
Speaker 1: I mean, the size of the revenue hole is just

111
00:05:30,320 --> 00:05:35,280
Speaker 1: so enormous, it's it's impressment. You know, Humira did nearly

112
00:05:35,320 --> 00:05:37,800
Speaker 1: twenty billion dollars in sales last year. It's the best

113
00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:42,080
Speaker 1: selling drug in the world. Replacing that takes a big deal. Uh.

114
00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:44,280
Speaker 1: The question I think was was this the right one

115
00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:47,440
Speaker 1: or the right use of that that big pilot capital. Yeah, exactly,

116
00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:49,839
Speaker 1: Max Neson, thanks so much for joining us. Max's Biotech,

117
00:05:49,880 --> 00:06:09,760
Speaker 1: Pharma and healthcare calmness for Bloomberg Opinion. Facebook jolted the

118
00:06:09,800 --> 00:06:14,000
Speaker 1: crypto asset world earlier this month, saying that they were

119
00:06:14,040 --> 00:06:17,960
Speaker 1: planning to unrule Libra. This was going to be a

120
00:06:18,000 --> 00:06:22,440
Speaker 1: way to serve underbanked or non banked customers and create

121
00:06:22,560 --> 00:06:26,640
Speaker 1: some sort of alternative method of payment on its platform.

122
00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:30,159
Speaker 1: The question is how much is this a game changer

123
00:06:30,240 --> 00:06:32,800
Speaker 1: for the cryptocurrency world. How much is this giving a

124
00:06:32,839 --> 00:06:36,680
Speaker 1: boost to bitcoin valuations? Here to answer all of those questions,

125
00:06:36,760 --> 00:06:39,200
Speaker 1: I'm so pleased to say, Danny Masters joining us in

126
00:06:39,200 --> 00:06:42,800
Speaker 1: our Bluebrigoda Active Brokers Studios. Danny Masters is chairman of

127
00:06:43,040 --> 00:06:46,680
Speaker 1: coin Shares Group, which overseas about fifty million dollars in

128
00:06:46,720 --> 00:06:50,000
Speaker 1: the platform and is based in London. He also you

129
00:06:50,040 --> 00:06:52,400
Speaker 1: may know him as the former global head of Energy

130
00:06:52,640 --> 00:06:56,039
Speaker 1: and Trading at Morgan Guarantee Trust now JP Morgan. Danny,

131
00:06:56,080 --> 00:06:59,559
Speaker 1: thank you so much for being here. So let's start there.

132
00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:04,080
Speaker 1: Do people understand what libra is if they look at

133
00:07:04,080 --> 00:07:09,080
Speaker 1: it as a cryptocurrency? I think cryptocurrency comes with certain

134
00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:12,440
Speaker 1: mystique around it, but I don't think Libra and the

135
00:07:12,560 --> 00:07:17,160
Speaker 1: calibra will it associated with it really represents a cryptocurrency.

136
00:07:17,200 --> 00:07:21,200
Speaker 1: I believe it is a representation of fiat value, primarily dollars,

137
00:07:21,200 --> 00:07:24,600
Speaker 1: but probably also currencies were not quite sure yet but

138
00:07:24,680 --> 00:07:29,280
Speaker 1: transported on cryptocurrency rails. What do you think Facebook strategy

139
00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:31,960
Speaker 1: is for getting into the crypto business that kind of

140
00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:35,280
Speaker 1: came out of no words but an advertising platform effectively, Well,

141
00:07:35,320 --> 00:07:37,200
Speaker 1: I think if you look at Facebook as a company

142
00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:40,320
Speaker 1: most of its revenue comes from US advertising, but most

143
00:07:40,360 --> 00:07:43,560
Speaker 1: of its active users live overseas, and Facebook hasn't come

144
00:07:43,640 --> 00:07:47,280
Speaker 1: up to date with an effective way monetizing those overseas users.

145
00:07:47,320 --> 00:07:49,520
Speaker 1: So having what the French would describe as a shadow

146
00:07:49,520 --> 00:07:52,600
Speaker 1: banking system with with Libra not not a compliment, by

147
00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:56,640
Speaker 1: the way, is a way to start to monetize their

148
00:07:56,760 --> 00:08:01,320
Speaker 1: overseas and users. So you said that it was another

149
00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:07,440
Speaker 1: form of payment using the cryptocurrency rails, in other words,

150
00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:13,560
Speaker 1: the infrastructure the technology behind cryptocurrencies. Is this why bitcoin

151
00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:16,600
Speaker 1: has rallied that basically Facebook would be paving the way

152
00:08:16,840 --> 00:08:21,440
Speaker 1: for people to easily make payments using bitcoin. Well, I

153
00:08:21,480 --> 00:08:25,480
Speaker 1: think the bitcoin rally itself is rooted in a perception

154
00:08:25,480 --> 00:08:27,320
Speaker 1: of a week of dollar environment, which is also the

155
00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:31,080
Speaker 1: catalyst for gold. Currently, it has been rooted in some

156
00:08:31,360 --> 00:08:35,880
Speaker 1: green shoots post the cryptowinter from early in some coins

157
00:08:35,880 --> 00:08:39,360
Speaker 1: which represent equity and some crypt winter come into a

158
00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:44,240
Speaker 1: theater near you, dot um. But but now I think

159
00:08:44,800 --> 00:08:48,200
Speaker 1: I think as far as bitcoin itself is concerned, our

160
00:08:48,280 --> 00:08:51,599
Speaker 1: conclusion is that if Libra and it's two and a

161
00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:56,439
Speaker 1: half billion users can easily switch from fiat money into

162
00:08:56,520 --> 00:08:59,959
Speaker 1: bitcoin and actually represents the biggest onboard ramp to bit

163
00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:03,600
Speaker 1: coin as as yet come into existence. So give us

164
00:09:03,600 --> 00:09:07,520
Speaker 1: a sense of what the regulatory environment has been historically

165
00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:09,960
Speaker 1: over cryptocurrencies. I don't think it's much, but I may

166
00:09:09,960 --> 00:09:13,200
Speaker 1: be mistaken, but my senses if an entity like a

167
00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:17,960
Speaker 1: Facebook gets involved, that could change things very quickly. Yes. Well,

168
00:09:18,320 --> 00:09:23,720
Speaker 1: Bitcoin as a very new kind of asset has really

169
00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:28,120
Speaker 1: stretched regulators in terms of their treatment. And the regulatory

170
00:09:28,200 --> 00:09:31,960
Speaker 1: perimeter as it's called, which by the way, is usually

171
00:09:32,000 --> 00:09:37,079
Speaker 1: a national perimeter, is challenged by a global currency like bitcoin,

172
00:09:37,520 --> 00:09:40,480
Speaker 1: and the reaction from regulators around the world has been

173
00:09:40,600 --> 00:09:46,160
Speaker 1: very mixed, some very positive, some very negative, some somewhat confused. Um,

174
00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:50,440
Speaker 1: the libra concept, because it is so closely tied to

175
00:09:50,480 --> 00:09:55,640
Speaker 1: the legacy banking system, is almost a combination of difficult

176
00:09:55,679 --> 00:10:00,960
Speaker 1: crypto legislation and regulation with difficult banking regulation. So I think,

177
00:10:01,080 --> 00:10:03,480
Speaker 1: and we have some experience in this. We know ourselves

178
00:10:04,120 --> 00:10:09,160
Speaker 1: produce some asset backs coins that rail on cryptocuncy infrastructure.

179
00:10:09,840 --> 00:10:12,720
Speaker 1: We've spent many years trying to solve that regulatory puzzle,

180
00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:16,080
Speaker 1: and Facebook have that ahead of them. So you also

181
00:10:16,160 --> 00:10:19,200
Speaker 1: lead the launch of the world's first regulated bitcoin and fund.

182
00:10:19,240 --> 00:10:23,640
Speaker 1: I believe I'm wondering, as you look at this incredible

183
00:10:23,760 --> 00:10:26,840
Speaker 1: rally that we've seen in a bitcoin, just absolutely surging,

184
00:10:27,520 --> 00:10:30,720
Speaker 1: I have to wonder whether there's still is value here

185
00:10:30,960 --> 00:10:32,920
Speaker 1: or if this is just sort of a knee jerk

186
00:10:32,960 --> 00:10:36,880
Speaker 1: reaction to the end of the crypto winter that will

187
00:10:36,920 --> 00:10:41,080
Speaker 1: be reversed. Yeah. I think in the very short term

188
00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:44,559
Speaker 1: here we have to recognize that it's been a spectacular rally,

189
00:10:44,640 --> 00:10:47,080
Speaker 1: you know, off of a low, low, low level in

190
00:10:47,200 --> 00:10:51,040
Speaker 1: terms of the historical range um. And going forward, you know,

191
00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:53,520
Speaker 1: I think one has to keep in mind the scale

192
00:10:53,559 --> 00:10:56,079
Speaker 1: of bitcoin, and indeed this has brought into light. When

193
00:10:56,080 --> 00:10:58,319
Speaker 1: you look at the scale of Facebook, there may be

194
00:10:58,440 --> 00:11:00,840
Speaker 1: a hundred and fifty million wall it's for bitcoin in

195
00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:03,199
Speaker 1: existence in the world today, there are two and a

196
00:11:03,240 --> 00:11:07,200
Speaker 1: half billion Facebook uses. It took Facebook ten years to

197
00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:10,240
Speaker 1: get from a million users to a billion users. And

198
00:11:10,280 --> 00:11:13,160
Speaker 1: when you look at those numbers and that timescale, I

199
00:11:13,200 --> 00:11:16,400
Speaker 1: think you can clearly see there's a long run way

200
00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:19,240
Speaker 1: at a bitcoin. I have to look at Bitcoin prices

201
00:11:19,800 --> 00:11:22,560
Speaker 1: have risen from more a little bit more than four

202
00:11:22,559 --> 00:11:26,800
Speaker 1: thousand dollars April one to eleven thousand, three hundred and

203
00:11:26,840 --> 00:11:29,240
Speaker 1: sixty three dollars today exactly. It's an interesting chart. You

204
00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:31,200
Speaker 1: put that chart up there for the last several years,

205
00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:33,920
Speaker 1: and that's a picture of violatility. So Danny, I know

206
00:11:34,160 --> 00:11:37,280
Speaker 1: that coin Shares is the largest crypto asset manager in Europe.

207
00:11:37,280 --> 00:11:40,000
Speaker 1: So I want to ask you, given your perspective, step

208
00:11:40,000 --> 00:11:42,800
Speaker 1: back a little bit just for our listeners to get

209
00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:45,520
Speaker 1: a sense of how do you think crypto coins are,

210
00:11:45,520 --> 00:11:49,760
Speaker 1: cryptocurrencies will develop and what some of the applications might

211
00:11:50,040 --> 00:11:53,720
Speaker 1: be over the next several years. I think there's you know,

212
00:11:54,000 --> 00:11:56,880
Speaker 1: one of the one of the really fascinating things about

213
00:11:56,920 --> 00:11:59,640
Speaker 1: bitcoin is it can be viewed in so many different lights,

214
00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:03,480
Speaker 1: um and and it is so international. Some people consider

215
00:12:03,480 --> 00:12:06,120
Speaker 1: it to be a proxy for early state technology, some

216
00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:10,400
Speaker 1: people consider it to be a currency summer commodity, and

217
00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:12,719
Speaker 1: and that's what you know. People can find reasons to

218
00:12:13,160 --> 00:12:17,600
Speaker 1: get to have appeal from bitcoin in many, many different ways. Um.

219
00:12:17,640 --> 00:12:20,560
Speaker 1: I think underlying that is the concept of some sort

220
00:12:20,559 --> 00:12:23,679
Speaker 1: of a little bit of financial freedom and this concept

221
00:12:23,720 --> 00:12:28,120
Speaker 1: of appeer to peer transactions of originally Bitcoin, now Libra

222
00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:30,960
Speaker 1: and potentially other assets in the future. And I think

223
00:12:30,960 --> 00:12:34,520
Speaker 1: that's in response to a banking system which is and

224
00:12:34,559 --> 00:12:37,439
Speaker 1: an asset transfer system which is actually quite dated. Now.

225
00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:40,520
Speaker 1: So where are we just quickly, Danny, in the evolution

226
00:12:40,800 --> 00:12:46,400
Speaker 1: of institutions adapting or adapting cryptocurrencies. Well, again, it's a

227
00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:49,920
Speaker 1: slow it's a slow development. Um. It was interesting to

228
00:12:49,920 --> 00:12:52,120
Speaker 1: see Fidelity actually did get over the line here in

229
00:12:52,120 --> 00:12:56,400
Speaker 1: the United States and produced their institutional custody solution which

230
00:12:56,440 --> 00:12:59,600
Speaker 1: is slowly growing out coin based. Also who in the

231
00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:03,200
Speaker 1: US are making a big push on the institutional custody

232
00:13:03,240 --> 00:13:06,080
Speaker 1: side as well. And so, you know, I think we

233
00:13:06,120 --> 00:13:10,560
Speaker 1: can say that this whole episode with Bitcoin to date

234
00:13:10,760 --> 00:13:14,440
Speaker 1: has happened in isolation of institutions, and institutions will not

235
00:13:14,559 --> 00:13:17,640
Speaker 1: arrive until we can say with certainty your assets are

236
00:13:17,640 --> 00:13:20,480
Speaker 1: not going to disappear or be hacked. That doesn't happen

237
00:13:20,480 --> 00:13:23,720
Speaker 1: in any other institutional asset class. But that seems to

238
00:13:23,760 --> 00:13:26,280
Speaker 1: be you know, in the in the immediate future, and

239
00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:29,040
Speaker 1: I think that's going to be a positive Danny Masters,

240
00:13:29,040 --> 00:13:45,640
Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. Well. The U

241
00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:48,160
Speaker 1: S consumer confidence fell in June to the lowest level

242
00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:53,000
Speaker 1: since twenty September. The indext came in at one pot

243
00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:55,599
Speaker 1: five That was lower than any of the estimates in

244
00:13:55,640 --> 00:13:59,640
Speaker 1: the Blueberg survey consensus was one, so a big miss there.

245
00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:01,520
Speaker 1: Help us dig into the numbers a little bit. We

246
00:14:01,520 --> 00:14:05,000
Speaker 1: welcome back Lynn Franco, Lynna's director of Economic Indicators at

247
00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:07,360
Speaker 1: the Conference Board. She joins us here in our Bloomberg

248
00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:09,959
Speaker 1: eleven three oh studios. Lynn, thanks so much for joining us.

249
00:14:09,960 --> 00:14:15,800
Speaker 1: Surprising miss here for the June period. What was driving it? Well,

250
00:14:15,840 --> 00:14:18,599
Speaker 1: I think the number one concern was the trade and

251
00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:21,640
Speaker 1: tariff discussions, and I think heated up quite a bit

252
00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:24,400
Speaker 1: in early June, both with Mexico and China. Seems to

253
00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:28,960
Speaker 1: have rattled consumers confidence both in the present term and

254
00:14:28,960 --> 00:14:30,800
Speaker 1: and the outlook. So it remains to be seen. I

255
00:14:30,800 --> 00:14:33,280
Speaker 1: mean a little bit of it dissipated in regards with Mexico.

256
00:14:33,360 --> 00:14:35,120
Speaker 1: We have to see what happens at the G twenty

257
00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:39,240
Speaker 1: summit um. But hopefully we can recoup some of this

258
00:14:39,320 --> 00:14:42,480
Speaker 1: lost next month and it doesn't derail spending. So at

259
00:14:42,520 --> 00:14:45,440
Speaker 1: what point do we care about this? Because basically consumer

260
00:14:45,560 --> 00:14:48,720
Speaker 1: more than two thirds of the economy in the United States,

261
00:14:48,720 --> 00:14:51,360
Speaker 1: has been the driver of the recovery. This is the

262
00:14:51,440 --> 00:14:55,840
Speaker 1: area that Michael McKie of Bloomberg News in television radio

263
00:14:55,920 --> 00:14:58,600
Speaker 1: has said this morning is what to watch to determine

264
00:14:58,600 --> 00:15:01,240
Speaker 1: when the cycle will turn. What is it concerning to you.

265
00:15:01,680 --> 00:15:03,600
Speaker 1: I think if we get you know, sort of back

266
00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:07,200
Speaker 1: to back declines going forward. Now, if we have another

267
00:15:07,240 --> 00:15:11,240
Speaker 1: decline in July, another decline in August, um, i'd be

268
00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:14,000
Speaker 1: I think I'd take volatility as positive news that we

269
00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:15,720
Speaker 1: can say, well, you know, it was a few events

270
00:15:15,720 --> 00:15:18,080
Speaker 1: that sort of rattled them for one particular month, and

271
00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:21,120
Speaker 1: we're back on track. It's still a strong reading. But

272
00:15:21,160 --> 00:15:23,800
Speaker 1: if we continue on a downward trend, then I would

273
00:15:23,840 --> 00:15:27,600
Speaker 1: become a little bit concerned. So this index has historically

274
00:15:27,680 --> 00:15:31,000
Speaker 1: been highly correlated with payrolls and with employment, and still

275
00:15:31,000 --> 00:15:34,000
Speaker 1: the pictures still generally good. There there any cracks in

276
00:15:34,040 --> 00:15:37,600
Speaker 1: the employment from from your data. Well, we did see

277
00:15:37,640 --> 00:15:39,720
Speaker 1: the number of consumers who said jobs are hard to

278
00:15:39,760 --> 00:15:42,560
Speaker 1: get shot up um and that's at the highest level

279
00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:46,680
Speaker 1: now since you know, November of and I think that

280
00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:49,320
Speaker 1: could be related to the employment data that we saw

281
00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:50,880
Speaker 1: in May, where there seemed to be you know, we're

282
00:15:50,920 --> 00:15:53,160
Speaker 1: not hiring, but we're not firing either, and there was

283
00:15:53,160 --> 00:15:55,360
Speaker 1: a pause there. So I think we need to keep

284
00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:57,680
Speaker 1: an eye on what happens in terms of jobs in

285
00:15:57,720 --> 00:15:59,720
Speaker 1: the months to come as well, And can you just

286
00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:02,000
Speaker 1: give us a sense of the read through of the

287
00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:06,480
Speaker 1: consumer confidence data with potential increase or slow down in

288
00:16:06,520 --> 00:16:08,320
Speaker 1: the U S economy in other words, with the lag

289
00:16:08,360 --> 00:16:11,400
Speaker 1: effect here well, generally the we we take a look

290
00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:13,520
Speaker 1: at the expectations index, so that can have like a

291
00:16:13,560 --> 00:16:15,560
Speaker 1: six month lead, but again we need to see sort

292
00:16:15,560 --> 00:16:19,000
Speaker 1: of a persistent downturn that then manifests itself in the

293
00:16:19,000 --> 00:16:22,320
Speaker 1: present situation as well. So it's it's interesting to, you know,

294
00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:24,800
Speaker 1: take a look at the two components and see if

295
00:16:24,800 --> 00:16:27,200
Speaker 1: they're moving in sync, and if they're both heading south,

296
00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:30,040
Speaker 1: then we could begin to see a weakening and consumer

297
00:16:30,080 --> 00:16:33,040
Speaker 1: confidence and spending and the economy as a whole. One

298
00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:34,440
Speaker 1: of the things at least, and I've been hearing more

299
00:16:34,440 --> 00:16:36,240
Speaker 1: and more over the less several weeks when we talk

300
00:16:36,320 --> 00:16:40,120
Speaker 1: to economists and fund managers, is that the potential and

301
00:16:40,160 --> 00:16:42,640
Speaker 1: maybe even likelihood for some type of for a recession,

302
00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:45,720
Speaker 1: and maybe MIDI or anything in your data suggesting that

303
00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:49,800
Speaker 1: that is reasonable expectation. As of right now, we're not

304
00:16:49,880 --> 00:16:52,800
Speaker 1: expecting a recession at least this year. Obviously, you know,

305
00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:56,040
Speaker 1: the probability could increase if we begin to face you know,

306
00:16:56,640 --> 00:16:59,240
Speaker 1: encounter more tail winds, so to speak. But for right now,

307
00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:01,080
Speaker 1: you know, we're more a little bit concerned. I think

308
00:17:01,080 --> 00:17:04,000
Speaker 1: with a divergence between you know, business confidence and consumer

309
00:17:04,080 --> 00:17:06,880
Speaker 1: confidence and to see whether or not those two then

310
00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:09,639
Speaker 1: sort of we can close the gap there, um, because

311
00:17:09,640 --> 00:17:14,320
Speaker 1: we've got business leaders who are significantly less confident than consumers.

312
00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:18,760
Speaker 1: I'm just wondering if there is something in particular that

313
00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:21,360
Speaker 1: we can pinpoint as an issue that's the key one

314
00:17:21,400 --> 00:17:24,480
Speaker 1: that consumers are watching to get resolved to feel more

315
00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:27,439
Speaker 1: confident again. Well, we did see a tremendous spike in

316
00:17:27,440 --> 00:17:31,760
Speaker 1: the mentions of trade and tariff discussions this month. Um,

317
00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:35,639
Speaker 1: you know, it's maybe three, four or five times the

318
00:17:35,760 --> 00:17:37,920
Speaker 1: number of mentions that we've seen over the last month.

319
00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:42,480
Speaker 1: So whatever happened in early June obviously resonated very negatively

320
00:17:42,600 --> 00:17:46,240
Speaker 1: with consumers. Now, you know, things have dissipated a little bit.

321
00:17:46,320 --> 00:17:48,240
Speaker 1: I think the situation is probably a little bit more

322
00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:49,920
Speaker 1: favorable than it was at the beginning of the month.

323
00:17:49,960 --> 00:17:51,320
Speaker 1: So we'll see if we get a bounce back in

324
00:17:51,560 --> 00:17:54,399
Speaker 1: early July or not, or if we continue sort of

325
00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:57,160
Speaker 1: in this you know push and pull with trades and tariffs.

326
00:17:57,160 --> 00:17:59,960
Speaker 1: It could have a lasting impact on confidence. I don't

327
00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:02,679
Speaker 1: think that issue is likely going away. We'll see what

328
00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:05,159
Speaker 1: happens in the G twenty this weekend, but I mean,

329
00:18:05,200 --> 00:18:07,040
Speaker 1: I think we certainly China. It seems like it might

330
00:18:07,040 --> 00:18:08,600
Speaker 1: be at best case what we've been here from people's

331
00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:10,240
Speaker 1: kick the can down the road a little bit. Yeah,

332
00:18:10,240 --> 00:18:13,119
Speaker 1: but this to me is a fascinating point. And Lynn Franco,

333
00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:14,679
Speaker 1: this is such a great day for you to be

334
00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:19,600
Speaker 1: here because the idea that the uncertainty around trade is

335
00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:23,320
Speaker 1: bleeding into the real economy and consumers willingness to spend,

336
00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:26,680
Speaker 1: not just big corporation saying oh, it's going to cost

337
00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:29,679
Speaker 1: us more. This is a very interesting fact and it

338
00:18:29,760 --> 00:18:32,760
Speaker 1: raises some serious questions. If we don't get some sort

339
00:18:32,800 --> 00:18:36,280
Speaker 1: of resolution, how regardless of the stock market and their response,

340
00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:40,720
Speaker 1: the actual economic impact could be significant. That, to me,

341
00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:44,320
Speaker 1: is is a fascinating point looking at the consumer confidence data.

342
00:18:44,440 --> 00:18:46,320
Speaker 1: Linn Franco, thank you so much for being with us.

343
00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:04,000
Speaker 1: As geopolitical risk abounds in a number of corners around

344
00:19:04,040 --> 00:19:07,960
Speaker 1: the world, this being reported overnight by Bloomberg News that

345
00:19:08,040 --> 00:19:11,840
Speaker 1: President Trump evidently mused to confidence about withdrawing from a

346
00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:15,640
Speaker 1: longstanding defense treaty with Japan. This according to people who

347
00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:20,240
Speaker 1: spoke with Bloomberg who didn't want to be identified. Joining

348
00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:23,520
Speaker 1: us now to discuss how brands. Henry A. Kissinger, Distinguished

349
00:19:23,520 --> 00:19:27,480
Speaker 1: Professor at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies,

350
00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:31,760
Speaker 1: also a Bloomberg opinion. Calumness joining us from Baltimore, Maryland, How,

351
00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:33,920
Speaker 1: thank you so much for being with us. So let's

352
00:19:33,920 --> 00:19:38,199
Speaker 1: just start there with this concept of upending this defense

353
00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:41,000
Speaker 1: treaty with Japan. What would this mean for the U.

354
00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:45,080
Speaker 1: S And its relationship with that nation. It would mean

355
00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:48,520
Speaker 1: a pretty significant alteration of U. S relations, not just

356
00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:51,240
Speaker 1: with Japan, but with the entire Asia Pacific in the

357
00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:54,320
Speaker 1: sense that the US alliance with Japan has been the

358
00:19:54,400 --> 00:19:57,520
Speaker 1: cornerstone of America's strategic posture in that part of the

359
00:19:57,560 --> 00:20:01,440
Speaker 1: world UH for over sixty years at this point. It's

360
00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:04,760
Speaker 1: been the cornerstone of peace and security in an incredibly

361
00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:07,199
Speaker 1: dynamic region. And so if the United States were to

362
00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:10,320
Speaker 1: pull back, if they were to withdraw from that alliance UH,

363
00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:14,720
Speaker 1: it would fundamentally up end both geopolitical and geoeconomic arrangements

364
00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:17,399
Speaker 1: of the region. So, professor, would you if if the

365
00:20:17,480 --> 00:20:19,760
Speaker 1: US were to pull out of this long standing arrangement

366
00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:22,000
Speaker 1: would have materially weakened the US in that region of

367
00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:25,920
Speaker 1: the world in your opinion. Certainly, you know, the United

368
00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:28,960
Speaker 1: States derives an enormous amount of influence because it has

369
00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:32,320
Speaker 1: security alliances with key countries throughout the region, Japan being

370
00:20:32,359 --> 00:20:34,720
Speaker 1: the most important, and so if the United States were

371
00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:38,159
Speaker 1: no longer so closely allied to Japan, or if it

372
00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:41,400
Speaker 1: went so far as to terminate the alliance, there would

373
00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:44,119
Speaker 1: be far less reason for Japanese leaders to listen to

374
00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:47,439
Speaker 1: American leaders on a whole variety of issues. So I

375
00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:50,840
Speaker 1: guess there's a question of how much President Trump was

376
00:20:50,880 --> 00:20:54,240
Speaker 1: taking this seriously, how much this was just musing on

377
00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:58,439
Speaker 1: the heels of some report by President Trump, And we

378
00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:01,600
Speaker 1: don't have the details on that point. But there is

379
00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:04,800
Speaker 1: a question how much com President from do unilaterally, both

380
00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:06,920
Speaker 1: with this as well as some of his other threats

381
00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:10,280
Speaker 1: with Iran. How much can he do without congressional approval.

382
00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:14,159
Speaker 1: You would probably get differing opinions on that, in the

383
00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:17,800
Speaker 1: sense that I would imagine the President would argue that

384
00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:23,560
Speaker 1: he has the authority to withdraw unilaterally from various treaties

385
00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:25,560
Speaker 1: that the United States has signed, but I imagine the

386
00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:28,679
Speaker 1: Congress would have a different opinion, and so that there

387
00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:31,439
Speaker 1: would be a degree of conflict within the U S

388
00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:34,440
Speaker 1: system over that question. But but pivoting to the point

389
00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:36,800
Speaker 1: you raised about whether the president is serious, I think

390
00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:39,400
Speaker 1: there are a couple of things to keep in mind. One,

391
00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:42,760
Speaker 1: this is a recurring theme with this president. He's openly

392
00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:47,240
Speaker 1: or privately mused about withdrawing from a number of American alliances,

393
00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:50,399
Speaker 1: including NATO and the U S to Panelliance, since becoming

394
00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:53,320
Speaker 1: president and even before. And I think that the general

395
00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:57,200
Speaker 1: perception is that this is probably more blowing off steam

396
00:21:57,200 --> 00:22:00,320
Speaker 1: than anything else. But these reports still have a oncrete

397
00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:03,280
Speaker 1: effects because they certainly can't do much for the self

398
00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:07,800
Speaker 1: confidence of US allies in tense parts of the world. So, Professor,

399
00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:10,479
Speaker 1: one of the backbones of some of these discussions from

400
00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:12,840
Speaker 1: President Trump about pulling out of some of these alliances

401
00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:17,400
Speaker 1: is that other countries don't shoulder their fair share economically.

402
00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:21,360
Speaker 1: So I'm presumably here as it relates to Japan, it's

403
00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:23,520
Speaker 1: costs the US a lot of money to have our

404
00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:27,520
Speaker 1: presence in Japan? Is that type of thinking, I e.

405
00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:30,560
Speaker 1: That we shoulder too much of the economic burden of

406
00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:34,800
Speaker 1: patrolling the world, is that shared widely within d C.

407
00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:40,080
Speaker 1: Within d C, I think the answer is probably no,

408
00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:43,280
Speaker 1: for a variety of reasons. And one reason is that

409
00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:46,320
Speaker 1: the costs of stationing American forces in Japan and other

410
00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:50,840
Speaker 1: countries are often exaggerated because Japan, like South Korea, like Germany,

411
00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:54,280
Speaker 1: provides significant amounts of what's called host nation support for

412
00:22:54,359 --> 00:22:57,200
Speaker 1: American troops. In other words, of the Japanese government de

413
00:22:57,280 --> 00:23:00,480
Speaker 1: phrase a significant portion of what it cost the United

414
00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:03,640
Speaker 1: States to station forces in Japan. The other thing that's

415
00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:07,840
Speaker 1: worth remembering is that we don't pledge to defend countries

416
00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:10,320
Speaker 1: like Japan because we think it's in their interest to

417
00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:12,080
Speaker 1: do so. We do that because we think it's an

418
00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:13,800
Speaker 1: our interest to do so. We think that it will

419
00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:17,960
Speaker 1: make for more peaceful and stable Northeast Asia, and that

420
00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:21,920
Speaker 1: in turn will benefit the United States geopolitically and economically.

421
00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:24,679
Speaker 1: Now that said, there has been a degree of discomfort

422
00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:28,240
Speaker 1: stretching back over a number of administrations about whether Japan

423
00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:30,200
Speaker 1: is bearing as much of the burden as it ought

424
00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:33,200
Speaker 1: to in terms of providing stability in that region and beyond.

425
00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:35,439
Speaker 1: And I think that's a fair debate to have. But

426
00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:38,000
Speaker 1: going a step further and thinking about withdrawing from the

427
00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:41,880
Speaker 1: alliance would be going too far. Meanwhile, President Trump tweeting

428
00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:45,720
Speaker 1: this morning about Iran, saying that Iran only understands strength

429
00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:49,520
Speaker 1: and power, h that Iran put out a quote very

430
00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:55,080
Speaker 1: ignorant and insulting statement, and talking about how overwhelming force,

431
00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 1: which would be his response to any attack by Iran,

432
00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:04,200
Speaker 1: will be meant with obliteration potentially. I'm just wondering, how

433
00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:07,439
Speaker 1: seriously do people take this. I'm looking again, We've been

434
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:09,640
Speaker 1: looking at the price of oil. It's not responding that much.

435
00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:13,919
Speaker 1: I think people are starting to perceive that there are

436
00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:17,359
Speaker 1: contradictory tendencies in the President's policy toward Irans. On the

437
00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:20,440
Speaker 1: one hand, he's very serious about getting tough with Iran

438
00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:23,159
Speaker 1: and trying to put additional pressure on the regime and

439
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:27,199
Speaker 1: forcing the regime to accept some deal that would be

440
00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:30,680
Speaker 1: more stringent than the one that the Obama administration negotiated.

441
00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:33,320
Speaker 1: On the other hand, the President made quite clear last

442
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:36,760
Speaker 1: week that he really has no interest in taking on

443
00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:39,679
Speaker 1: another military conflict, particularly in the Middle East. This has

444
00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:42,119
Speaker 1: been a theme of his campaign rater going back to

445
00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:45,359
Speaker 1: and there's no reason to think that he has changed

446
00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:47,200
Speaker 1: his mind, and so I think what what people may

447
00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:51,000
Speaker 1: be doing is assuming that while the President will talk tough,

448
00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:55,080
Speaker 1: he will ultimately decide not to pull the trigger on

449
00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:58,480
Speaker 1: a major military operation visa Iran unless the United States

450
00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:01,960
Speaker 1: is significantly provoked. Haw Brands, thank you so much. Haw

451
00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:05,119
Speaker 1: Brands is the Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor, JOHNS. Hopkins

452
00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:09,520
Speaker 1: University's School of Advanced International Studies. It's also Bloomberg Opinion

453
00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:13,960
Speaker 1: columnists Sharlenn sharing his views on the US UH Japan

454
00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:16,680
Speaker 1: Defense pack. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg P and

455
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:19,320
Speaker 1: L podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews at

456
00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. Paul Sweeney,

457
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:25,840
Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. I'm Lisa abram Woits.

458
00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:28,320
Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Lisa A. Bram Woits. One. Before

459
00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:31,120
Speaker 1: the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg

460
00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:31,520
Speaker 1: Radio