1 00:00:00,600 --> 00:00:05,160 Speaker 1: Welcome to Zero. I am Akshatrati. This week societal collapse 2 00:00:05,320 --> 00:00:21,040 Speaker 1: and how to avoid it. Every era has its moment 3 00:00:21,079 --> 00:00:23,920 Speaker 1: of crisis where it feels like the world is going 4 00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:27,320 Speaker 1: to come to a screeching halt. The twentieth century saw 5 00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:31,600 Speaker 1: world wars followed by the constant specter of nuclear armageddon. 6 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:34,240 Speaker 1: At the turn of the millennium, it was the White 7 00:00:34,240 --> 00:00:37,560 Speaker 1: two K bug that led to dumers getting lots of airtime, 8 00:00:38,080 --> 00:00:40,599 Speaker 1: and for me, growing up in India, there was no 9 00:00:40,720 --> 00:00:44,080 Speaker 1: escape from Bollywood movies that reminded us all that we 10 00:00:44,080 --> 00:00:47,480 Speaker 1: were living in what Hindus called the kaliyuk, the era 11 00:00:47,560 --> 00:00:51,120 Speaker 1: of darkness, the final stage where God will destroy evil 12 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:55,520 Speaker 1: and kickstart the era of renewal. The twenty first century 13 00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:58,960 Speaker 1: comes with its own threats, not only the one this 14 00:00:59,000 --> 00:01:03,960 Speaker 1: podcast focuses most on climate change, but also pandemics and 15 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:07,679 Speaker 1: most recently, the idea that an Ai gone rogue will 16 00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:10,440 Speaker 1: think humans are no longer useful and turn. 17 00:01:10,319 --> 00:01:14,160 Speaker 2: Us all into paper clips jokes aside. 18 00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:18,040 Speaker 1: For many, the fear of imminent societal collapse has grown 19 00:01:18,080 --> 00:01:21,919 Speaker 1: with the realization that the global politics is no longer 20 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:25,240 Speaker 1: the same as Canada's Prime Minister Marcarney put it recently, 21 00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:30,319 Speaker 1: a rupture has taken place. Collapse is not a cheery subject, 22 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:33,560 Speaker 1: but it turns out it's also something that happens frequently, 23 00:01:34,000 --> 00:01:36,000 Speaker 1: and there's a lot we can learn from the past. 24 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:37,280 Speaker 2: That's why I. 25 00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:40,560 Speaker 1: Wanted to speak to Lukekemp, a researcher affiliated with the 26 00:01:40,600 --> 00:01:43,720 Speaker 1: Center for the Study of Existential Risk at the University 27 00:01:43,760 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 1: of Cambridge. He's the author of a new book called 28 00:01:46,760 --> 00:01:51,000 Speaker 1: Goliath's Curse, The History and Future of Societal Collapse. The 29 00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:53,920 Speaker 1: book looks at five thousand years of human history to 30 00:01:54,040 --> 00:01:57,080 Speaker 1: track the rise and fall of different societies and what 31 00:01:57,320 --> 00:02:00,040 Speaker 1: is born out of the ashes. I asked Luke to 32 00:02:00,080 --> 00:02:03,560 Speaker 1: bust some popular myths about collapse, whether all societies are 33 00:02:03,560 --> 00:02:06,680 Speaker 1: doomed to fail, and if not, if our current moment 34 00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:10,840 Speaker 1: makes us uniquely vulnerable, or perhaps we are more resilient 35 00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:14,480 Speaker 1: than we think. As always, send your feedback to zero 36 00:02:14,520 --> 00:02:22,440 Speaker 1: Pod at Bloomberg dot net. Welcome to Zero Luke. 37 00:02:22,560 --> 00:02:23,920 Speaker 2: Thank you for having me. Bak Shaddon. 38 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:28,280 Speaker 1: The idea of societal collapse is pretty popular, especially these days, 39 00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:30,520 Speaker 1: I feel like so it was great to read your 40 00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:35,200 Speaker 1: book because you actually put the science behind collapse and 41 00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:39,520 Speaker 1: bust a bunch of myths around what people have popular 42 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:43,359 Speaker 1: notions around collapse. Let's just start with the definition of collapse, 43 00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:48,160 Speaker 1: which you base on this database that you have developed 44 00:02:48,200 --> 00:02:52,000 Speaker 1: at the University of Cambridge called the Mortality of States 45 00:02:52,120 --> 00:02:57,799 Speaker 1: Index or Moros, which is the Greek god of doom. 46 00:02:58,120 --> 00:03:02,240 Speaker 2: Very fittingly. Yes, I use the database in large part 47 00:03:02,280 --> 00:03:05,040 Speaker 2: to see what was the average lifespan of a state 48 00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:08,040 Speaker 2: as this changed of a history, and additionally what are 49 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:10,800 Speaker 2: the causes behind all the different case studies to identify 50 00:03:10,880 --> 00:03:16,240 Speaker 2: the commonalities. The way I define collapse is as a 51 00:03:16,280 --> 00:03:20,960 Speaker 2: contraction and fragmentation of different power structures. So when the 52 00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:24,960 Speaker 2: economy collapses we called an economic bust or an economic collapse. 53 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:28,160 Speaker 2: When a state falls apart, we called a state failure 54 00:03:28,440 --> 00:03:31,480 Speaker 2: or a state collapse, and when the population falls apart, 55 00:03:31,520 --> 00:03:35,880 Speaker 2: we called a population bust or a population collapse. When 56 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:39,440 Speaker 2: all these different power structures fall apart and break down together, 57 00:03:39,920 --> 00:03:42,040 Speaker 2: we can then think of it as a societal collapse. 58 00:03:42,720 --> 00:03:46,760 Speaker 2: Not every state or civilization, if you will thout history 59 00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:51,120 Speaker 2: has collapsed, but societal collapse is a real recurring phenomenon and. 60 00:03:51,080 --> 00:03:53,160 Speaker 1: The idea that most people have, at least in modern 61 00:03:53,160 --> 00:03:56,400 Speaker 1: culture about collapse I think would come from Hollywood, you know, 62 00:03:56,720 --> 00:04:01,119 Speaker 1: movies like Mad Max, The After Tomorrow. Can deg pick 63 00:04:01,160 --> 00:04:05,360 Speaker 1: any zombie movie you say in the book, that is 64 00:04:05,400 --> 00:04:07,520 Speaker 1: not what collapse looks like. 65 00:04:08,080 --> 00:04:11,040 Speaker 2: Unfortunately, I think most people have their view of collapse 66 00:04:11,040 --> 00:04:14,520 Speaker 2: shape by, as you mentioned, either disaster flix or bad philosophy, 67 00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:18,479 Speaker 2: in particular philosophy of Thomas Hobbs, who has this idea 68 00:04:18,520 --> 00:04:21,080 Speaker 2: that as soon as we are in a state without 69 00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:24,440 Speaker 2: rules about an overarching authority, we will turn on each 70 00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:28,480 Speaker 2: other in a violent scramble for resources. That just simply 71 00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:32,159 Speaker 2: isn't true when you look at the evidence we have 72 00:04:32,160 --> 00:04:35,200 Speaker 2: from what's called disaster risk management, so studies of how 73 00:04:35,240 --> 00:04:42,880 Speaker 2: people behave during earthquakes, natural disasters, different sorts, tsunamis, terrorist attacks, 74 00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:48,440 Speaker 2: people tend to respond pretty egalitarian, pretty well, pretty good 75 00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:51,880 Speaker 2: at self organizing, and they tend to be just pretty kind. 76 00:04:52,640 --> 00:04:54,960 Speaker 2: A good example of this is what's called boat lift. 77 00:04:55,160 --> 00:04:57,120 Speaker 2: So in the wake of the nine eleven terrorist attacks, 78 00:04:57,440 --> 00:05:00,960 Speaker 2: within minutes the Coast Guard put out a call for 79 00:05:01,160 --> 00:05:03,640 Speaker 2: people to help move and ferry people away from the 80 00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:07,400 Speaker 2: ground zero across the Hudson River. That day, over half 81 00:05:07,440 --> 00:05:09,719 Speaker 2: a million people were moved, and this is just done 82 00:05:09,760 --> 00:05:14,000 Speaker 2: by average people using things like small fishing vessels. And 83 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:16,760 Speaker 2: this makes sense. We wouldn't have survived the Ice Age. 84 00:05:16,839 --> 00:05:19,880 Speaker 2: We would not be here today if we were constantly 85 00:05:19,960 --> 00:05:22,520 Speaker 2: killing each other and we just fell into mass panic 86 00:05:22,920 --> 00:05:24,279 Speaker 2: every time we had a disaster. 87 00:05:24,760 --> 00:05:29,000 Speaker 1: And your book is called Goliath's Gurs. You make a 88 00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 1: separation between society, civilization and Goliath. What do you mean when. 89 00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:37,160 Speaker 2: You get to write a book on collapse, The obvious 90 00:05:37,240 --> 00:05:39,480 Speaker 2: question you have to ask is what is collapsing? And 91 00:05:39,520 --> 00:05:43,120 Speaker 2: most people would say civilization. Arem a stickler for definitions, 92 00:05:43,160 --> 00:05:44,800 Speaker 2: and the problem I found is that there are no 93 00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:48,880 Speaker 2: good definitions of civilization. The definition has ranged from things 94 00:05:48,920 --> 00:05:51,480 Speaker 2: like a checklist of ten factors, which was developed by 95 00:05:51,520 --> 00:05:54,680 Speaker 2: an Australian archaeologists Gordon Child, who said it's things like 96 00:05:55,120 --> 00:05:58,400 Speaker 2: the presence of writing, a long distance trade doesn't quite 97 00:05:58,440 --> 00:06:01,560 Speaker 2: make sense all hunt together a group have long distance trade, 98 00:06:01,839 --> 00:06:04,000 Speaker 2: and the Incan Empire, which stretched all the way from 99 00:06:04,040 --> 00:06:08,200 Speaker 2: Chile to Argentina didn't have writing. And sometimes the definition 100 00:06:08,320 --> 00:06:12,640 Speaker 2: is just very prejudiced, for instance, civilization being in advanced 101 00:06:12,680 --> 00:06:16,000 Speaker 2: culture instead when you look at it empirically, when we 102 00:06:16,040 --> 00:06:19,800 Speaker 2: talk about civilization, we talk about the first big kingdoms 103 00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:22,760 Speaker 2: and empires like Urik and Mesopotamia or the first Inness 104 00:06:22,760 --> 00:06:26,640 Speaker 2: of Egypt. What unites them quite clearly are things like 105 00:06:27,279 --> 00:06:32,839 Speaker 2: large scale warfare, slavery, and human sacrifice. What we're really 106 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:37,040 Speaker 2: seeing here is a movement away from egalitarian arrangements towards 107 00:06:37,120 --> 00:06:41,920 Speaker 2: dominance hierarchies, in which a small group or individual rules 108 00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:45,360 Speaker 2: over everyone else through violence. And hence in the book, 109 00:06:45,400 --> 00:06:48,680 Speaker 2: I refer to Goliath rather than civilization, and a Goliah 110 00:06:48,800 --> 00:06:51,920 Speaker 2: is essentially a collection of these dominance hierarchies. So Rome 111 00:06:52,080 --> 00:06:54,240 Speaker 2: was not just the empire. It's also the distinction we 112 00:06:54,320 --> 00:06:57,839 Speaker 2: have between slave and master, rich and poor, man and woman. 113 00:06:58,920 --> 00:07:03,400 Speaker 1: And it comes from the biblical story of the giant 114 00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:06,360 Speaker 1: warrior who was then brought down by a young shepherd 115 00:07:06,480 --> 00:07:09,680 Speaker 1: named David. Is there a David in your story? 116 00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:13,200 Speaker 2: I like to think that David is us. It's most 117 00:07:13,360 --> 00:07:17,520 Speaker 2: ordinary people who don't want to be dominated. And when 118 00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:19,720 Speaker 2: I chose the term go life, it was quite intentional. 119 00:07:20,280 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 2: Civilization on the problems is it's a terror propaganda. It 120 00:07:23,520 --> 00:07:26,640 Speaker 2: comes from the Latin roots Civilitus, which has these connotations 121 00:07:26,640 --> 00:07:31,640 Speaker 2: of moderation, restraint, virtue, wisdom. There's nothing particularly virtuous or 122 00:07:31,720 --> 00:07:35,280 Speaker 2: wise about doing mass humane sacrifice. Instead, when we look 123 00:07:35,320 --> 00:07:39,320 Speaker 2: at these early dominance hierarchies, they're marked by scale, they're 124 00:07:39,440 --> 00:07:42,600 Speaker 2: very big, they rely upon violence, and they're surprisingly fragile. 125 00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:44,920 Speaker 2: And all those, of course apply to the biblical tale 126 00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:45,760 Speaker 2: of golf. 127 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:50,160 Speaker 1: So let's start with busting some myths, then, because one 128 00:07:50,200 --> 00:07:53,520 Speaker 1: of those myths is that, you know, typically people think 129 00:07:53,560 --> 00:07:57,760 Speaker 1: of collapse as a problem. There is horror, there will 130 00:07:57,800 --> 00:08:01,160 Speaker 1: be as the Thomas Hobbes view would be, people become 131 00:08:01,200 --> 00:08:07,360 Speaker 1: without government, solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short. But you say, 132 00:08:07,640 --> 00:08:10,800 Speaker 1: collapse isn't always a bad thing. If anything, more, often 133 00:08:10,960 --> 00:08:13,520 Speaker 1: collapse can be good for people. 134 00:08:13,600 --> 00:08:17,320 Speaker 2: Collapse is a process that has costs and benefits, winners 135 00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:20,920 Speaker 2: and losers, And frequently the biggest losers were elites, and 136 00:08:20,920 --> 00:08:23,040 Speaker 2: they were the ones who tend to write the history books. 137 00:08:23,400 --> 00:08:27,480 Speaker 2: And sometimes the biggest benefactors were most ordinary people. A 138 00:08:27,480 --> 00:08:31,000 Speaker 2: couple of examples here. When people think of modern collapses, 139 00:08:31,120 --> 00:08:34,640 Speaker 2: or think of something like the state failure in Somalia 140 00:08:34,880 --> 00:08:38,480 Speaker 2: in nineteen ninety one, the Barra regime falls apart, and 141 00:08:38,559 --> 00:08:42,960 Speaker 2: yet a decade later, people's lives are actually better. Maternal 142 00:08:42,960 --> 00:08:47,199 Speaker 2: mortality is down by thirty percent, informortality by twenty four percent, 143 00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:50,720 Speaker 2: in extreme poverty by twenty percent. In general, life got 144 00:08:50,720 --> 00:08:54,320 Speaker 2: better because the bar Ra regime was incredibly predatory, and 145 00:08:54,360 --> 00:08:56,959 Speaker 2: people were better off under more localized forms of government, 146 00:08:57,280 --> 00:09:02,120 Speaker 2: even sometimes warlords. Interestingly, this seems to be true even 147 00:09:02,160 --> 00:09:05,000 Speaker 2: we look further back in history. People tend to think 148 00:09:05,040 --> 00:09:08,600 Speaker 2: of the collapse of Rome as being a complete historical tragedy, 149 00:09:09,080 --> 00:09:13,320 Speaker 2: and afterwards, people in the excludal record seem to be taller, 150 00:09:13,640 --> 00:09:16,920 Speaker 2: and they have less holes in their teeth and less 151 00:09:16,920 --> 00:09:19,240 Speaker 2: holes in their bones. They have less dental cavities and 152 00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:24,600 Speaker 2: bone trauma. In sure, they were healthier. The natural response 153 00:09:24,640 --> 00:09:26,680 Speaker 2: of some people here is while so many people died, 154 00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:29,200 Speaker 2: there were more resources left over, and hence the average 155 00:09:29,240 --> 00:09:33,560 Speaker 2: person profited. That isn't quite true. Even people outside the 156 00:09:33,600 --> 00:09:37,440 Speaker 2: empire tended to be taller, hence the idea of this big, 157 00:09:37,559 --> 00:09:41,720 Speaker 2: muscle bound genetic barbarian. That's because the people living outside 158 00:09:41,760 --> 00:09:44,760 Speaker 2: empire just simply were bigger and stronger than in comparison 159 00:09:44,800 --> 00:09:48,280 Speaker 2: to the average Roman counterpart. So in general, it wasn't 160 00:09:48,320 --> 00:09:51,160 Speaker 2: always good to be living under empire, and sometimes stripping 161 00:09:51,200 --> 00:09:53,680 Speaker 2: away empire was actually good for many people. 162 00:09:53,920 --> 00:09:57,880 Speaker 1: You go through the history of collapses and you identify 163 00:09:58,679 --> 00:10:03,000 Speaker 1: what leads to this tipping point of a collapse to happen. Typically, 164 00:10:03,120 --> 00:10:08,000 Speaker 1: it's inequality. It's you know, Domin's hierarchies that are essentially 165 00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:14,120 Speaker 1: very violent, are you know, very clearly defined by conspicuous 166 00:10:14,200 --> 00:10:18,680 Speaker 1: consumption of the elite at the top. But when civilization 167 00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:23,000 Speaker 1: starts off and the worst of these bits don't exist, 168 00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:27,280 Speaker 1: good things happen in a group of people organized in 169 00:10:27,280 --> 00:10:28,120 Speaker 1: a society, right. 170 00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:30,439 Speaker 2: I think in general, when you get large groups of 171 00:10:30,440 --> 00:10:33,240 Speaker 2: people together with a shared purpose, we can do very 172 00:10:33,240 --> 00:10:37,160 Speaker 2: cool things. But this doesn't always require having a ruler, 173 00:10:37,240 --> 00:10:40,120 Speaker 2: a king, or a set of elites. In the book, 174 00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:42,160 Speaker 2: I go for a whole bunch of examples where you 175 00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:45,120 Speaker 2: see early cities, You see examples of large scale irrigation, 176 00:10:45,679 --> 00:10:49,160 Speaker 2: large scale farming, monuments, and all of these are done 177 00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:52,400 Speaker 2: in what appears to be an egalitarian setting. And some 178 00:10:52,440 --> 00:10:55,120 Speaker 2: of these include Tiwanaku, them of the very first cities 179 00:10:55,160 --> 00:10:58,400 Speaker 2: in South America, Jena, one of the largest and earliest 180 00:10:58,440 --> 00:11:01,959 Speaker 2: cities in East Africa, as well as one of the 181 00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:06,600 Speaker 2: most fascinating case studies of the Harapan civilization, which was 182 00:11:06,760 --> 00:11:11,199 Speaker 2: concurring with Uruk roughly two five hundred BC in modern 183 00:11:11,240 --> 00:11:15,800 Speaker 2: day Pakistan. They had plumbing, they had very large bath 184 00:11:15,840 --> 00:11:18,960 Speaker 2: houses that had very large shed for cities, the largest 185 00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:21,240 Speaker 2: which may have held up to forty thousand people. But 186 00:11:21,320 --> 00:11:24,120 Speaker 2: as far as we see, there's no signs of rulers 187 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:27,760 Speaker 2: or elites. This was done just by people self organizing. 188 00:11:27,960 --> 00:11:29,840 Speaker 1: But that's the exception, not the norm. 189 00:11:30,040 --> 00:11:33,760 Speaker 2: That is true. But the difficulty here is telling whether 190 00:11:33,880 --> 00:11:39,360 Speaker 2: or not we require this on average or whether or not. 191 00:11:39,760 --> 00:11:43,040 Speaker 2: The reason it's the exception is because generally speaking, once 192 00:11:43,080 --> 00:11:46,320 Speaker 2: you get large groups of people together with resources that 193 00:11:46,360 --> 00:11:50,080 Speaker 2: can be easily seen, stolen, instored what I call lutable resources, 194 00:11:50,760 --> 00:11:54,640 Speaker 2: eventually a set of elites or rulers almost always rise 195 00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:56,839 Speaker 2: up and essentially take the credit. That's what we see 196 00:11:56,840 --> 00:12:00,920 Speaker 2: in Tiwanaku. Early archaeologists felt that Tiwanaku was a typical 197 00:12:00,920 --> 00:12:03,040 Speaker 2: example of you had a king and to helped to 198 00:12:03,160 --> 00:12:06,360 Speaker 2: organize all this cool stuff, including the monuments, the irrigation canals. 199 00:12:07,000 --> 00:12:08,480 Speaker 2: But the close we looked at it seems like that 200 00:12:08,520 --> 00:12:11,360 Speaker 2: wasn't the case. The elites came later, and actually the 201 00:12:11,400 --> 00:12:14,960 Speaker 2: first signs of destabilization and collapse come after the elites 202 00:12:15,160 --> 00:12:17,960 Speaker 2: rise up and inequality starts to rise alongside them. 203 00:12:18,120 --> 00:12:20,920 Speaker 1: There are two other authors who've popularized this idea. So 204 00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:25,680 Speaker 1: one is Stephen Pinker, who has talked about how we 205 00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:30,559 Speaker 1: have become more and more peaceful species because violence has 206 00:12:30,600 --> 00:12:35,280 Speaker 1: been falling. And you say that he's actually misreading the data. 207 00:12:35,559 --> 00:12:39,440 Speaker 2: Yes, absolutely. Stephen Pinker has popularized the idea that the 208 00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:44,200 Speaker 2: prolific so approximately three hundred thousand years ago through to 209 00:12:44,679 --> 00:12:47,280 Speaker 2: roughly eleven thousand years ago, once you have an entry 210 00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:50,960 Speaker 2: into the warmer conditions of the Holocene, that during this 211 00:12:51,040 --> 00:12:55,200 Speaker 2: period we were incredibly blood thirsty, that on average, for 212 00:12:55,520 --> 00:12:58,840 Speaker 2: every one hundred people born fifteen were dying at the 213 00:12:58,880 --> 00:13:01,400 Speaker 2: hands in other human we call a lethal violence rate 214 00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:03,520 Speaker 2: of fifteen percent, and others have a said even higher 215 00:13:03,559 --> 00:13:04,320 Speaker 2: twenty five percent. 216 00:13:04,960 --> 00:13:07,800 Speaker 1: The problem is, and that's fallen and now we are 217 00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:10,680 Speaker 1: at exactly one one in one hundred exactly. 218 00:13:10,679 --> 00:13:12,840 Speaker 2: It's gotten better and better over tire and today we're 219 00:13:12,880 --> 00:13:15,360 Speaker 2: sitting at roughly at a global level one point three 220 00:13:15,360 --> 00:13:18,120 Speaker 2: percent or so. If you count people taking their own lives, 221 00:13:18,160 --> 00:13:21,040 Speaker 2: they think it ends up being over two percent. There's 222 00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:24,120 Speaker 2: a few problems here. One is that Pinker relies upon 223 00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:28,599 Speaker 2: a set of archaeological sites, and several of these are duplicates, 224 00:13:29,080 --> 00:13:31,280 Speaker 2: and only one of them actually dates back to the 225 00:13:31,280 --> 00:13:35,679 Speaker 2: prolific which seems kind of strange. That site is called 226 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:39,280 Speaker 2: jabel Sa Harbor, and it's well known amongst archaeologist because 227 00:13:39,320 --> 00:13:42,679 Speaker 2: it's incredibly exceptional. It's roughly twelve thousand to fourteen thousand 228 00:13:42,720 --> 00:13:46,920 Speaker 2: years ago during a period of immense environmental upheaval, when 229 00:13:46,960 --> 00:13:49,640 Speaker 2: the entire climate of the Earth was changing, and we 230 00:13:49,720 --> 00:13:53,120 Speaker 2: have roughly just over fifty skeletons which have signs of violence, 231 00:13:53,120 --> 00:13:55,720 Speaker 2: where it be pari wounds, so some blocking a blade 232 00:13:55,720 --> 00:13:59,319 Speaker 2: with their forum, or even projectiles embedded into the bones. 233 00:14:00,160 --> 00:14:02,559 Speaker 2: A better study was done by two archaeologists at the 234 00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:06,480 Speaker 2: Chicago Field Museum has some pastelli and they looked over 235 00:14:07,760 --> 00:14:11,679 Speaker 2: four thousand skeletons and three hundred sites. They found essentially 236 00:14:11,760 --> 00:14:15,480 Speaker 2: only one site that was unequivocally a site of violence, 237 00:14:15,600 --> 00:14:18,920 Speaker 2: and that was Jabelle's Harbor. The best systematic studies we 238 00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:21,920 Speaker 2: have all suggest that the rate of violence is probably 239 00:14:21,960 --> 00:14:25,000 Speaker 2: closer one to two percent, and that's also supported by 240 00:14:25,040 --> 00:14:27,760 Speaker 2: genetic evidence too, and it's also supported by when we 241 00:14:27,800 --> 00:14:31,480 Speaker 2: look at studies of battlefields what it's called killology. In short, 242 00:14:31,840 --> 00:14:34,400 Speaker 2: people don't seem to want to kill each other, and 243 00:14:34,440 --> 00:14:38,880 Speaker 2: there's plenty of both evidence from battlefield re enactments, interviews, etc. 244 00:14:39,440 --> 00:14:42,400 Speaker 2: Where people seem to often fire away from the enemies 245 00:14:42,440 --> 00:14:45,320 Speaker 2: or above them. That would be very strange if we 246 00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:47,160 Speaker 2: were evolved to be blood first to killers. 247 00:14:47,960 --> 00:14:51,640 Speaker 1: And then the other author that you call out is 248 00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:55,280 Speaker 1: Jared Diamond, who wrote a book called Collapse, and you 249 00:14:55,360 --> 00:14:57,880 Speaker 1: think he also got certain things wrong. 250 00:14:58,840 --> 00:15:02,040 Speaker 2: Diamond both gets particular case studies wrong. So for instance, 251 00:15:02,120 --> 00:15:06,040 Speaker 2: the Rapanuim also known as Easter Island. He attributes this 252 00:15:06,080 --> 00:15:09,680 Speaker 2: as being a case of ecoside that essentially they deforested 253 00:15:09,720 --> 00:15:13,960 Speaker 2: their island so excessively that eventually the entire society fell 254 00:15:13,960 --> 00:15:16,200 Speaker 2: apart due to lack of food supply and fell into 255 00:15:16,240 --> 00:15:20,400 Speaker 2: cannibalism and infighting. That just isn't supported by the evidence anymore. 256 00:15:20,640 --> 00:15:23,240 Speaker 2: We can see that there wasn't a population collapse until 257 00:15:23,440 --> 00:15:27,160 Speaker 2: Europeans arrived. This was a case of genocide, not ecoside. 258 00:15:27,240 --> 00:15:30,760 Speaker 2: It was from imported diseases and the violence of invading Europeans. 259 00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:34,360 Speaker 2: But apart from that, Diamond only looks at a small 260 00:15:34,360 --> 00:15:37,000 Speaker 2: handful of case studies five in particular, and three of 261 00:15:37,040 --> 00:15:41,040 Speaker 2: those are islands. That's not exactly a good representative set 262 00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:43,280 Speaker 2: of case studies and an analogous to the modern world. 263 00:15:43,920 --> 00:15:46,080 Speaker 2: I think Diamond does some interesting work as well on 264 00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:49,760 Speaker 2: top of that, but ultimately it's not a systematic or 265 00:15:49,880 --> 00:15:53,360 Speaker 2: really accurate view of how collapses unfolded across history. 266 00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:58,480 Speaker 1: Throughout history. We can also note that because of perhaps 267 00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:02,320 Speaker 1: society is being created, civilizations being created, and them collapsing, 268 00:16:02,760 --> 00:16:05,160 Speaker 1: we have seen overall progress happen. 269 00:16:05,280 --> 00:16:05,520 Speaker 2: Right. 270 00:16:05,600 --> 00:16:12,680 Speaker 1: We live healthier, well, neier, longer lives today. But you 271 00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:16,920 Speaker 1: argue that actually the things that have allowed that kind 272 00:16:16,920 --> 00:16:21,480 Speaker 1: of progress are also the things that are. 273 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:24,040 Speaker 2: Increasing the risk of collapse. What do you mean, Well, 274 00:16:24,040 --> 00:16:26,640 Speaker 2: first of all, when you notice all these graphs which 275 00:16:26,640 --> 00:16:32,280 Speaker 2: show things like life expectancy, increasing informortality, decreasing literacy rates, 276 00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:37,360 Speaker 2: increasing progress happening, there must always pretty recent. They usually 277 00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:39,640 Speaker 2: get back to the last century or two. In the book, 278 00:16:39,800 --> 00:16:43,520 Speaker 2: I go through a couple different indicators, both health, happiness, 279 00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:47,760 Speaker 2: and income or standard of living if you will. You 280 00:16:47,760 --> 00:16:50,320 Speaker 2: can look at standard living in terms of people's average 281 00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:52,960 Speaker 2: real wage. You can look at health in terms of 282 00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:55,440 Speaker 2: skeletal height, which is kind of a good overall proxy 283 00:16:55,480 --> 00:16:58,880 Speaker 2: for human health. And what you see is that when 284 00:16:58,920 --> 00:17:02,200 Speaker 2: people picked up farms, they become substantially shorter by a 285 00:17:02,240 --> 00:17:04,600 Speaker 2: couple of inches. In short, it was a wrecking ball 286 00:17:04,600 --> 00:17:07,560 Speaker 2: to their health. You'll see the emergence of most diseases 287 00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:12,040 Speaker 2: we have had to deal with throughout history, like smallpox, influenza, etc. 288 00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:17,160 Speaker 2: So that's not really a progress story. And interestingly, human 289 00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:20,119 Speaker 2: height more or less plateause from the uptake of agriculture 290 00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:21,879 Speaker 2: in the First States all the way through to the 291 00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:25,440 Speaker 2: indust Revolution. A similar story of real wages. There's actually 292 00:17:25,720 --> 00:17:28,280 Speaker 2: no big increase in real wages all the way through 293 00:17:28,320 --> 00:17:32,600 Speaker 2: to the Industrial Revolution. Everything increases thereafter, but doesn't actually 294 00:17:32,600 --> 00:17:36,080 Speaker 2: happen with the industri revolution. Here in the UK, people 295 00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:40,000 Speaker 2: actually get shorter during the Industrial Revolution. Life expectancy drops. 296 00:17:40,640 --> 00:17:45,040 Speaker 2: It isn't until you have big social movements suffragettes, unionis 297 00:17:45,040 --> 00:17:48,760 Speaker 2: and others all demanding things like sanitation, a forty hour 298 00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:51,960 Speaker 2: working week, and of course the vote. It's the combination 299 00:17:52,040 --> 00:17:56,280 Speaker 2: of both technological change and social struggle that leads to progress, 300 00:17:57,880 --> 00:18:00,320 Speaker 2: and that's a very different story to this overall idea 301 00:18:00,359 --> 00:18:06,240 Speaker 2: of empire states and simple time make progress. That's not true. 302 00:18:06,280 --> 00:18:07,560 Speaker 2: Progress needs to be fought for. 303 00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:15,280 Speaker 1: After the break, I asked Luke what we can learn 304 00:18:15,280 --> 00:18:18,919 Speaker 1: from the collapse of past coliads to help us create stronger, 305 00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:22,280 Speaker 1: more equal societies. And while I've got you, please take 306 00:18:22,320 --> 00:18:26,080 Speaker 1: a moment to rate and review the show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify. 307 00:18:25,760 --> 00:18:26,400 Speaker 2: And YouTube. 308 00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:41,000 Speaker 1: It helps new listeners find the show. So if you 309 00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:45,360 Speaker 1: draw lessons based on what you've seen history in societal collapse, 310 00:18:46,040 --> 00:18:50,600 Speaker 1: there is the rise of essentially the darker impulses of 311 00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:55,840 Speaker 1: human nature, which is dominance. Hierarchies typically powered by increase 312 00:18:55,880 --> 00:19:02,120 Speaker 1: in wealth, inequality, wanting status, using arms raised to try 313 00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:05,760 Speaker 1: and get even more land or even more resources, taking 314 00:19:05,840 --> 00:19:08,600 Speaker 1: loutable resources as you call things that you can store 315 00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:13,360 Speaker 1: and trade like gold or wheat or rice. Are there 316 00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:18,479 Speaker 1: other ingredients that are necessary for societal collapse to happen? 317 00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:22,640 Speaker 1: Or are things that would increase the probability of societal collapse. 318 00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:26,080 Speaker 2: When we talk about risk, we talk about fortifferent factors, 319 00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:30,840 Speaker 2: the hazard, the vulnerability, the exposure and response. So for instance, 320 00:19:31,000 --> 00:19:33,320 Speaker 2: your tsunami be the hazard, but your vulnerability is the 321 00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:36,320 Speaker 2: fact that you don't have infrastructure of standard. Your exposure 322 00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:39,160 Speaker 2: you line the path of the tsunami and your response 323 00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:42,080 Speaker 2: how you respond can make things better or worse, and 324 00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:45,159 Speaker 2: these are apply to collapses as well. My key argument 325 00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:48,520 Speaker 2: is that Golias curse is the simple idea that goliaves 326 00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:51,119 Speaker 2: contain the seeds of their own demise, and this is 327 00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:54,520 Speaker 2: for the reason that wealth and equality tends to increase 328 00:19:54,560 --> 00:19:58,639 Speaker 2: over time. This leads to excessive gross levels of inequality. So, 329 00:19:58,680 --> 00:20:01,040 Speaker 2: for instance, one study of on eight pre modern states 330 00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:05,000 Speaker 2: found that on average, there was seventy seven percent towards 331 00:20:05,000 --> 00:20:09,639 Speaker 2: the theoretical maximum level of inequality. That maximum level is 332 00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:13,760 Speaker 2: a situation which one individual owns all the surplus wealth 333 00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:16,800 Speaker 2: and everyone else has just enough to survive and reproduce 334 00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:20,399 Speaker 2: on In short, we were three quarters towards that across 335 00:20:20,440 --> 00:20:23,159 Speaker 2: most pre modern states. That has a whole bunch of 336 00:20:23,240 --> 00:20:25,480 Speaker 2: knock on effects. As you become more inequal, you tend 337 00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:29,120 Speaker 2: to become more polarized. There tends to be an increase 338 00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:32,520 Speaker 2: in elite competition battling for a small number of thrones. 339 00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:36,159 Speaker 2: People tend to become more miserrated as the cost of 340 00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:39,280 Speaker 2: living increases, what we would call today called cost living crisis, 341 00:20:39,720 --> 00:20:42,240 Speaker 2: and a whole bunch of other different effects including increased 342 00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:45,280 Speaker 2: social political violence, for instance. I go for all these 343 00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:48,399 Speaker 2: and show that these basically increase vulnerability, but you still 344 00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:50,879 Speaker 2: often need a shock, and often that shock came in 345 00:20:50,880 --> 00:20:55,920 Speaker 2: the form of either disease invaders or quite frequently climate change. 346 00:20:56,240 --> 00:20:59,760 Speaker 1: If you dig that five thousand year history and we 347 00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:05,679 Speaker 1: look at modern society, you make a clear differentiation that 348 00:21:05,800 --> 00:21:11,159 Speaker 1: today something is fundamentally different from those societies. So before 349 00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:15,800 Speaker 1: we talk about the differences, what are lessons from the 350 00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:20,600 Speaker 1: old collapses that we can pull into today's world. 351 00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:23,679 Speaker 2: I think a fairly simple one is that inequality is 352 00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:28,160 Speaker 2: corrosive and dangerous, and we see that today as well. 353 00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:31,080 Speaker 2: When we look across the OECD, whether it's the UK, 354 00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:35,160 Speaker 2: the US, or Australia, you see quite clearly similar trends. 355 00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:38,280 Speaker 2: It's not just rising wealth inequality. It's also democratic backsliding, 356 00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:42,720 Speaker 2: increasing polarization, the rise of the far right. All of 357 00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:47,240 Speaker 2: these have pretty clear empirical relationships to inequality, even things 358 00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:50,800 Speaker 2: like corruption, and that is clearly making these states more 359 00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:54,560 Speaker 2: destabilized and heading down a much darker path. So I 360 00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:57,720 Speaker 2: do think that the central feasis here that inequality tends 361 00:21:57,720 --> 00:22:01,919 Speaker 2: to be corrosive to societies ill holds true today. But 362 00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:05,800 Speaker 2: the other slight difference here but it still relates back 363 00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:08,680 Speaker 2: to inequality, is that the biggest threats we face today 364 00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:14,600 Speaker 2: would be climate change, advanced AI systems, engineer pandemics, or 365 00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:17,560 Speaker 2: even things like nuclear weapons. They all still rely upon 366 00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:21,240 Speaker 2: global inequality and systems of exploitation. So in the book, 367 00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:23,639 Speaker 2: I point out that if you're going to build a 368 00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:26,600 Speaker 2: lethal autonomous drone, a killer robot if you will, or 369 00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:29,160 Speaker 2: you're gonna build a nuclear weapon, you essentially rely upon 370 00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:33,640 Speaker 2: very cheap materials and minerals from places like the Democratic 371 00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:36,719 Speaker 2: of publica CONO. So, for instance, building a larger language 372 00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:40,600 Speaker 2: model or a drone requires cobalt. Seventy percent of the 373 00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:44,879 Speaker 2: world's cobalt supply comes from the DC. Roughly half of 374 00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:48,080 Speaker 2: that is dug up by artisanal miners who work in 375 00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:51,679 Speaker 2: some of the most exploitative slave like conditions possible, working 376 00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:56,119 Speaker 2: for a couple of dollars a day. And the same 377 00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:58,760 Speaker 2: holds true for the very first sources of your anim 378 00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:01,159 Speaker 2: use nukele weapons, which would lug up once again the DSE. 379 00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:03,960 Speaker 2: Under the supervision that BELTIA authorities, who are known for 380 00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:07,080 Speaker 2: being some of the most ruthless colonies as possible wherever 381 00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:11,040 Speaker 2: you look, inequality looks beneath the biggest challenges we face. 382 00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:14,879 Speaker 1: But there is a big difference compared to previous civilization, 383 00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:19,120 Speaker 1: which is ours now is perhaps the biggest of the 384 00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:22,639 Speaker 1: goliaths that has existed. Because we are fully globalized, fully 385 00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:28,359 Speaker 1: interconnected supply chains are making us interdependent. And to that 386 00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:31,840 Speaker 1: you're adding these technological layers that did not exist for 387 00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:37,679 Speaker 1: previous civilizations, of nuclear war, off ai of climate change 388 00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:40,560 Speaker 1: to the extent and the pace at which we are 389 00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:43,879 Speaker 1: causing it. Because climate change has happened in the past, 390 00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:45,800 Speaker 1: but the pace at which we are doing it with 391 00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:50,600 Speaker 1: fossil fuels is unprecedented. And so if there are these 392 00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:55,600 Speaker 1: lessons on inequality and on resource extraction, it still makes 393 00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:59,879 Speaker 1: us in a way, much more vulnerable and at a 394 00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:02,840 Speaker 1: risk of a much worse collapse than we have ever 395 00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:06,800 Speaker 1: seen in the past. Right, previous collapses turned out to 396 00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:10,280 Speaker 1: be good things for some people at some point. Now 397 00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:15,040 Speaker 1: there doesn't seem like a good scenario if collapse happens. 398 00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:18,359 Speaker 2: Yeah, Unfortunately, there are two things that are different today, 399 00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:20,840 Speaker 2: and neither of them are good. The first is, as 400 00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:24,159 Speaker 2: you've alluded to, the threats, we face a far bigger 401 00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:27,680 Speaker 2: and worse climate change. In the past that helped topple societies, 402 00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:30,439 Speaker 2: it was usually cooling of roughly a degree celsius at 403 00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:35,479 Speaker 2: a regional level. Today we're facing glomatic global climatic climate 404 00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:39,720 Speaker 2: change of roughly somewhere between three or more degrees celsius. 405 00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:46,160 Speaker 2: These are much much worse threats. The second is that collapse, 406 00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:49,000 Speaker 2: as you mentioned, is likely far worse. I like to 407 00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:52,679 Speaker 2: say that collapse has a bright history but a dark future, 408 00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:55,480 Speaker 2: and this for a few reasons. One has mentioned the 409 00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:58,880 Speaker 2: scale the threats we face. A second is we rely 410 00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:02,600 Speaker 2: much more upon global industrialized supply chains than ever before. 411 00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:05,439 Speaker 2: Previously people could quite easily move back to farming or 412 00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:08,800 Speaker 2: doing more hunting and gathering. Most people cannot do that 413 00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:11,760 Speaker 2: any longer. The third is that we now live in 414 00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:16,520 Speaker 2: a global life. We live in one integrated economic and 415 00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:21,520 Speaker 2: political system. The fourth is that states historically weren't very 416 00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:24,040 Speaker 2: good for their citizens, that didn't provide many public goods. 417 00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:26,640 Speaker 2: But today, if you're living in Denmark, it's actually quite 418 00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:29,600 Speaker 2: a bad thing if Denmark falls apart. And last, but 419 00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:31,720 Speaker 2: not least, is one of the bad things that often 420 00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:36,400 Speaker 2: happens during collapse is there is a glut of violence 421 00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:39,760 Speaker 2: as small groups of armed young men try to recreate 422 00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:42,639 Speaker 2: a state for an empire. Previously that was done with 423 00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:47,919 Speaker 2: handheld bronze and iron axes and swords or muskets. Today 424 00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:51,600 Speaker 2: we have nuclear weapons and killer robots, and all those 425 00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:54,480 Speaker 2: together mean that, unfortunately, claps in the future is more 426 00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:58,560 Speaker 2: likely to be pervasive, large scale, and much much worse. 427 00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:02,000 Speaker 1: So let's talk some of the ways in which we 428 00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:05,120 Speaker 1: can try and essentially avoid this collapse, because this time 429 00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:10,680 Speaker 1: around we cannot afford a collapse. And your book, despite 430 00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:15,000 Speaker 1: the chery subject of collapse, actually ends on an optimistic 431 00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:20,960 Speaker 1: note because there are ways out of this situation. What 432 00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:21,879 Speaker 1: would that look like? 433 00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:24,920 Speaker 2: It's worth noting that when it comes to addressing most 434 00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:27,000 Speaker 2: of these individual threats, where it be nuclear weapons of 435 00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:30,800 Speaker 2: climate change, there are no large scale technical impediments. We 436 00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:34,400 Speaker 2: know we can reduce nuclear stockpiles. The US was dismantling 437 00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:37,120 Speaker 2: more than a thousand weapons per year during the nineteen nineties. 438 00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:41,000 Speaker 2: Every single major economy has a detailed plan of how 439 00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:44,040 Speaker 2: they can reach net zero missions by twenty fifty. The 440 00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:47,440 Speaker 2: problem is not technical, it's political. What we need to do, 441 00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:50,520 Speaker 2: I believe, is try to level the different source of 442 00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:53,919 Speaker 2: power we don't just need to have economic equality, but 443 00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:56,560 Speaker 2: we also need to have equality in terms of political voice, 444 00:26:56,880 --> 00:27:00,560 Speaker 2: in terms of out access to information, and potentially even 445 00:27:00,560 --> 00:27:05,640 Speaker 2: in terms of overseeing violent means like the military. If 446 00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:08,520 Speaker 2: I was going to choose one big intervention, what I 447 00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:11,320 Speaker 2: put forward in the book is the implementation of what's 448 00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:15,000 Speaker 2: called open democracy or deliberate democracy, where rather than relying 449 00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:19,159 Speaker 2: upon voting, you rely upon sortian randomly selecting average people, 450 00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:22,080 Speaker 2: bring them together in a group that brief by experts, 451 00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:24,560 Speaker 2: and then they come to a conclusion. And if I 452 00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:28,760 Speaker 2: can bribe one example here, it's a Ford experiment called 453 00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:32,080 Speaker 2: the Trinity Jury. In nineteen forty five, we have what 454 00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:34,480 Speaker 2: was called the Trinity Test, which was the detonation of 455 00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:36,720 Speaker 2: the world's very first atomic weapon in the sands of 456 00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:40,120 Speaker 2: New Mexico. Prior to that test, the night beforehand, the 457 00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:43,640 Speaker 2: physicist Enrique Ferme had been taking bets as to whether 458 00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:47,240 Speaker 2: or not that test would destroy the entire world. That's 459 00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:50,199 Speaker 2: because his colleague Edward Teller had made a calculation that 460 00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:53,159 Speaker 2: there was a non zero chance that detonating the bomb 461 00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:57,080 Speaker 2: would ignite the entire atmosphere of earth lust, killing not 462 00:27:57,160 --> 00:28:00,000 Speaker 2: just every single human but every single shred of life 463 00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:04,400 Speaker 2: life on this planet. By that time, the US also 464 00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:07,760 Speaker 2: knew the Nazis been no longer capable of building their 465 00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:10,760 Speaker 2: an atomic weapon, so this wasn't about beating the Nazis 466 00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:13,280 Speaker 2: to the bomb. In the book, I put forward a 467 00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:16,720 Speaker 2: pretty simple experiment. Imagine that you had a citizen's jury 468 00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:22,159 Speaker 2: that you randomly selected nurses, teachers, farmers from across the US. 469 00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:24,920 Speaker 2: You put them in a room, you gave them that information, 470 00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:30,760 Speaker 2: and you asked them, should we detonate that weapon? The 471 00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:33,800 Speaker 2: reaction I have for most people is disbelief. Of course not, 472 00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:37,760 Speaker 2: and I think this holds true for many things. If 473 00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:40,680 Speaker 2: we had a citizen's jury sitting in on Exon Mobile 474 00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:43,080 Speaker 2: and other fossil fuel companies during the nineteen seventies when 475 00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:46,440 Speaker 2: they had information by climate change and they intentionally buried 476 00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:50,600 Speaker 2: it and ran misinformation campaigns financed by tens of millions 477 00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:54,280 Speaker 2: of dollars, I'm pretty certain those citizens juries would not 478 00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:56,920 Speaker 2: have said yes please, Like to my friends and family. 479 00:28:56,760 --> 00:28:58,680 Speaker 1: I've been to a citizen's duty that was done in 480 00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:00,680 Speaker 1: the UK. Let me come back to that. But before 481 00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:03,440 Speaker 1: we do, there is an aspect of this that we 482 00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:07,640 Speaker 1: also must acknowledge. So many scientists have been involved in 483 00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:11,400 Speaker 1: making atomic bombs and then hydrogen bombs or thermonuclear bombs. 484 00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:13,840 Speaker 1: One of them was asked, you know, do you regret 485 00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:19,440 Speaker 1: having contributed to what is an existential threat for humanity? 486 00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:22,800 Speaker 1: And his answer was pretty interesting. He said, I wish 487 00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:26,920 Speaker 1: it were not scientifically possible to make the weapon, the 488 00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:30,200 Speaker 1: implication being the fact that we can make it. I 489 00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:33,400 Speaker 1: wouldn't have made it. Somebody at some point would make it. 490 00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:36,400 Speaker 1: And so we do live in this competitive world. You know, 491 00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:40,320 Speaker 1: you talk about how competition between Domin's hierarchies leads to 492 00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:45,640 Speaker 1: collapse when there are big wars. Sometimes that can be good, 493 00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:49,960 Speaker 1: but that competitive nature, which is also there in humans, 494 00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:53,480 Speaker 1: you know, has allowed for some progress but also leads 495 00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:57,760 Speaker 1: us to these problems. So how do you actually work 496 00:29:57,880 --> 00:30:01,480 Speaker 1: around the competitive pressures? If you want to create a 497 00:30:01,480 --> 00:30:06,000 Speaker 1: citizen's jury at the global level or even in every country, 498 00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:09,760 Speaker 1: how are you going to remove the competitive layer that 499 00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:11,040 Speaker 1: holds this back. 500 00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:15,000 Speaker 2: Yes, this is a very common refrain you hear from, say, 501 00:30:15,040 --> 00:30:18,160 Speaker 2: for instance, executives like Sam Oltman is if it can 502 00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:20,560 Speaker 2: be built, it will be built. Hence we're not really 503 00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:22,760 Speaker 2: bad guys, We kind of have to build it. Unfortunately, 504 00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:26,320 Speaker 2: it's interesting because this is often built upon what's called 505 00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:29,920 Speaker 2: game theory, which is essentially the mathematical exploration of how 506 00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:33,800 Speaker 2: people act in cooperative environments when they're self interested in actors. 507 00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:37,600 Speaker 2: What's funny is when you put regular humans into these experiments, 508 00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:40,600 Speaker 2: they don't tend to end up in arms races or 509 00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:43,280 Speaker 2: races for resources like this. They actually tend to be 510 00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:48,000 Speaker 2: very worried about things like status fairness, stuff like that. 511 00:30:49,880 --> 00:30:53,000 Speaker 2: There's two exceptions to this. One is people who are 512 00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:55,360 Speaker 2: trained in economics and finance, because it becomes a self 513 00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:57,960 Speaker 2: fulfilling prophecy of everyone else is going to act like 514 00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:00,120 Speaker 2: an asshole, so I have to do the same. And 515 00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:02,080 Speaker 2: is people who are high in the Dark Triad. The 516 00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:07,440 Speaker 2: Dark Tride is a set of three antisocial personality traits psychopathy, narcissism, 517 00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:10,040 Speaker 2: and machi villanism. In the book, I put forward the 518 00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:13,440 Speaker 2: case that our institutions over select for people who are 519 00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:16,200 Speaker 2: high in these traits. And that's a simple empirically true. 520 00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:19,520 Speaker 2: Amongst men at a population level, roughly one in one 521 00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:23,720 Speaker 2: hundred people would pass the clinical threshold for psychopathy. In 522 00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:27,760 Speaker 2: boardrooms and parliaments, it's roughly three to twenty one percent. 523 00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:30,400 Speaker 2: There's dispute over the numbers, but there's no dispute over 524 00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:32,880 Speaker 2: the fact that they are overrepresented in positions of power. 525 00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:35,400 Speaker 2: And when you look at our corporations and our states, 526 00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:38,760 Speaker 2: they kind of look like psychopaths, so it's unsurprising they 527 00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:43,400 Speaker 2: end up in these big races for new weapons, new resources, etc. 528 00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:49,120 Speaker 2: So what we need to do is actually redesigner institutions 529 00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:51,400 Speaker 2: from the bottom up in a way that doesn't select 530 00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:54,000 Speaker 2: for the worst of us, but actually makes use of 531 00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:57,480 Speaker 2: our very best characteristics, our ability to cooperate, to deliberate, 532 00:31:57,520 --> 00:32:00,160 Speaker 2: to change our minds. And that's where I think having 533 00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:04,600 Speaker 2: more democracy is potentially a really big avenue for essentially 534 00:32:04,640 --> 00:32:07,080 Speaker 2: saving the world and finding a way out of arms races. 535 00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:10,080 Speaker 1: So citizens juries have been applied specifically to climate. So 536 00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:11,760 Speaker 1: the one I attended here in the UK was in 537 00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:16,080 Speaker 1: twenty twenty and it was a really good experience exactly 538 00:32:16,320 --> 00:32:19,720 Speaker 1: as you defined, which is you had this random but 539 00:32:19,840 --> 00:32:23,560 Speaker 1: representative set of people who were informed by experts and 540 00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:26,200 Speaker 1: then who were asked a series of questions around climate policy, 541 00:32:26,560 --> 00:32:30,479 Speaker 1: and those results were then put in a report to 542 00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:33,640 Speaker 1: inform the government and it went nowhere, there being citizens 543 00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:36,320 Speaker 1: juries in other places which have been more effective. There 544 00:32:36,360 --> 00:32:40,120 Speaker 1: was one in Ireland looking at abortions, and that did 545 00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:43,760 Speaker 1: have societal benefits that came as a result of that. 546 00:32:44,600 --> 00:32:48,160 Speaker 1: But they are again it's exceptional, not the norm. Direct 547 00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:51,800 Speaker 1: democracy exists in some places like Switzerland where you have 548 00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:56,719 Speaker 1: referendums on key issues, Estonia where you have much more 549 00:32:56,800 --> 00:33:02,320 Speaker 1: voting directly done with the internet rather than the physical 550 00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:04,920 Speaker 1: paper that we still use in many countries, because they've 551 00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:10,560 Speaker 1: figured out a system that is trustworthy enough. It still 552 00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:14,560 Speaker 1: leaves the question if the institutions are filled with these people, 553 00:33:15,280 --> 00:33:20,560 Speaker 1: and they are pervasive, and they're everywhere, and they are 554 00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:23,960 Speaker 1: the people who are competing, not us average humans, how 555 00:33:24,000 --> 00:33:28,400 Speaker 1: do you replace them with a system that is much 556 00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:32,960 Speaker 1: more egalitarian deliberative, like a citizen's jury. 557 00:33:33,120 --> 00:33:36,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, alas, I'm not a prophet, I'm not entirely sure 558 00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:39,160 Speaker 2: to be frank, And it's something I don't delve into 559 00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:42,239 Speaker 2: the book that I don't have a complete blueprint as 560 00:33:42,280 --> 00:33:45,480 Speaker 2: to how we get from here to this future where 561 00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:48,040 Speaker 2: power is more bounced, to where we're not trapped in 562 00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:51,120 Speaker 2: arms races. That's a topic for enough a book. I 563 00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:55,959 Speaker 2: do have some rough ideas here. For instance, I think populism, 564 00:33:56,040 --> 00:34:00,840 Speaker 2: strangely enough, is actually one opportunity. Populisms have very weird 565 00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:03,240 Speaker 2: broad term and it can capsulate to Bernie Sanders voter 566 00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:05,480 Speaker 2: as well as a Trump voter. The one thing that 567 00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:09,280 Speaker 2: unites them is they have this underlying idea that currently 568 00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:12,799 Speaker 2: they're not properly represented in government. The average person needs 569 00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:17,319 Speaker 2: to have more democratic representation, and the world's getting worse 570 00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:20,760 Speaker 2: because of corrupt eletes. And I don't think that's entirely untrue. 571 00:34:21,160 --> 00:34:24,279 Speaker 2: And I think both a Trump supporter and a Sander 572 00:34:24,320 --> 00:34:28,120 Speaker 2: supporter would probably support the idea of having citizens' juries, 573 00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:30,680 Speaker 2: whether it be in government or potentially of the big 574 00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:34,279 Speaker 2: tech as well. I think that this is a real 575 00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:37,600 Speaker 2: political opportunity, particular on the left right now, which is struggling, 576 00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:41,520 Speaker 2: let's face it, across many different countries. And the other 577 00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:45,640 Speaker 2: area here which truly gives me hope is just simply technology. 578 00:34:45,719 --> 00:34:49,280 Speaker 2: It's been very difficult historically to do democracy effectively at scale, 579 00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:52,120 Speaker 2: but now we do have the technology to do so, 580 00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:56,120 Speaker 2: and what's really promising is we don't even try right now. 581 00:34:56,520 --> 00:35:00,279 Speaker 2: We probably spend at least less than a hundred on 582 00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:05,160 Speaker 2: improving democracy than what we spend on improving mass surveillance 583 00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:09,719 Speaker 2: in facial recognition. Imagine if, rather than simply saying we 584 00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:12,200 Speaker 2: need to compete with countries because we're democracies and we 585 00:35:12,280 --> 00:35:14,320 Speaker 2: have to win, we actually spend money on trying to 586 00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:17,480 Speaker 2: improve our democracies. Imagine where we could get to. So, 587 00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:20,560 Speaker 2: I think if we do simply move research and funding 588 00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:24,040 Speaker 2: towards actually supporting the values that we uphold a society, 589 00:35:24,760 --> 00:35:27,600 Speaker 2: and we start to tap into the popular discompment people 590 00:35:27,719 --> 00:35:32,480 Speaker 2: have towards modern day electoral democracies, there's a lot of 591 00:35:32,600 --> 00:35:35,600 Speaker 2: energy and a lot of technical solutions to have a 592 00:35:35,760 --> 00:35:37,680 Speaker 2: very different, far better world. 593 00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:42,160 Speaker 1: In trying to build this more democratic society. We kind 594 00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:46,000 Speaker 1: of did play an experiment out after the World Wars, 595 00:35:46,640 --> 00:35:50,080 Speaker 1: the creation of the United Nations as Florida as an institution. 596 00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:55,400 Speaker 1: It has been you acknowledge in the book that that 597 00:35:55,480 --> 00:36:00,759 Speaker 1: postwar period has been an exceptionally peaceful time, even by 598 00:36:00,800 --> 00:36:03,880 Speaker 1: the history of the five thousand years of the moross database. 599 00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:07,480 Speaker 2: Right, it's also meaning exceptionally equal time and in general 600 00:36:07,719 --> 00:36:11,320 Speaker 2: an exceptionally good time. When people talk about making America 601 00:36:11,360 --> 00:36:14,000 Speaker 2: great again, at least for you know, white men, they're 602 00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:17,080 Speaker 2: usually thinking about the nineteen fifties and sixties. What happened 603 00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:20,279 Speaker 2: during the nineteen forties and fifties is you have it's 604 00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:23,440 Speaker 2: called the Great Compression, a combination of the world wars 605 00:36:23,440 --> 00:36:27,720 Speaker 2: destroying a lot of old money, and additionally large amounts 606 00:36:27,719 --> 00:36:30,640 Speaker 2: of people being much more involved in a wartime economy, 607 00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:34,280 Speaker 2: being armed and demanding things like a vote and requiring 608 00:36:34,440 --> 00:36:37,879 Speaker 2: progressive taxation actually support the wartime effort. All of that 609 00:36:38,160 --> 00:36:40,759 Speaker 2: create the perfect storm for a far more equal set 610 00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:43,360 Speaker 2: of societies and places like the UK and the US 611 00:36:43,960 --> 00:36:47,000 Speaker 2: lo and behold, things tended to get better. It's also 612 00:36:47,600 --> 00:36:50,600 Speaker 2: worth noting that when we look back to classical Greece, 613 00:36:50,840 --> 00:36:54,200 Speaker 2: we tend to uphold Athens, which had this democratic model 614 00:36:54,200 --> 00:36:56,640 Speaker 2: which was once again built in sortition and having citizens, 615 00:36:56,760 --> 00:37:02,759 Speaker 2: juries and assemblies, just having democracy and equality a local level. 616 00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:05,239 Speaker 2: As you mentioned, we did have better efforts to try 617 00:37:05,239 --> 00:37:07,840 Speaker 2: to have a global governance through things like the own nations. 618 00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:10,480 Speaker 2: So it was deeply flawed and often it was overly 619 00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:13,759 Speaker 2: representative simply of a US interests. This particularly includes things 620 00:37:13,760 --> 00:37:16,319 Speaker 2: like the World Bank and the Britain Woods Institutions, But 621 00:37:16,360 --> 00:37:19,640 Speaker 2: nonetheless it was an attempt to try to better coordinate 622 00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:23,000 Speaker 2: and cooperate at a global level, and ultimately we will 623 00:37:23,080 --> 00:37:25,400 Speaker 2: need that in the long term. I'm not sure if 624 00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:27,480 Speaker 2: it'd be through the UN, but you can imagine something 625 00:37:27,560 --> 00:37:32,719 Speaker 2: like federated democracies. We're basically you have citizens, juries and 626 00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:34,960 Speaker 2: assemblies at a local level, they scale up to a 627 00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:37,680 Speaker 2: national level and then eventually into a global level as well. 628 00:37:37,920 --> 00:37:41,000 Speaker 2: So trying to bypass having a world of competing individual 629 00:37:41,040 --> 00:37:42,759 Speaker 2: empires and nation states. 630 00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:46,720 Speaker 1: And do you think the conversation at the geopolitical level 631 00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:51,000 Speaker 1: right now where Marcarney has come out with this idea 632 00:37:51,040 --> 00:37:54,360 Speaker 1: that it's a rupture that these big powers, mainly the 633 00:37:54,440 --> 00:37:58,960 Speaker 1: US in China, are making the world a more dangerous place. 634 00:37:59,080 --> 00:38:02,480 Speaker 1: But the middle Parkers as he calls them, which you 635 00:38:02,600 --> 00:38:05,680 Speaker 1: probably can put a bunch of European countries at least individually, 636 00:38:05,719 --> 00:38:09,160 Speaker 1: if not the EU as a collective together can try 637 00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:12,080 Speaker 1: to build a world order. An international order that is 638 00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:17,080 Speaker 1: clearly not working, being is breaking down or is being 639 00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:21,360 Speaker 1: broken down, could build this new order. Can you imagine 640 00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:24,719 Speaker 1: a more democratic order coming as a result of the 641 00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:26,840 Speaker 1: middle powers coming together? 642 00:38:27,080 --> 00:38:30,960 Speaker 2: Absolutely? My PhD fasis was on how do you have 643 00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:34,759 Speaker 2: successful international agreements without the leadership of the United States, 644 00:38:35,160 --> 00:38:38,680 Speaker 2: and one finding I had was that the most successful 645 00:38:38,680 --> 00:38:41,240 Speaker 2: treaties we've had have actually tended to start in small 646 00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:44,040 Speaker 2: groups and then expand over time. This is true of 647 00:38:44,040 --> 00:38:47,120 Speaker 2: the Montreal Protocol and OZ interplating substances, which started with 648 00:38:47,200 --> 00:38:50,000 Speaker 2: only approximately forty two countries or so. It's as true 649 00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:52,160 Speaker 2: to the General Agreement on Trades in taris the GAT, 650 00:38:52,160 --> 00:38:56,000 Speaker 2: which preceded the WTO. In general, that tends to work 651 00:38:56,080 --> 00:38:59,919 Speaker 2: quite well. A small group of countries can provide momentum, 652 00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:02,640 Speaker 2: they can create new norms which spread across the world, 653 00:39:02,960 --> 00:39:06,360 Speaker 2: and also they can basically change technology, which again spills 654 00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:09,319 Speaker 2: over in other countries. If you're happy about China taking 655 00:39:09,360 --> 00:39:12,320 Speaker 2: more actional climate change, you can thank Denmark and Germany 656 00:39:12,360 --> 00:39:15,719 Speaker 2: for lowering the cost of solo PV and wind, and 657 00:39:15,800 --> 00:39:18,840 Speaker 2: hence I do think these critical mass approaches can actually 658 00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:21,960 Speaker 2: be really successful. The one area where it actually disagree 659 00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:24,400 Speaker 2: with Karney, who gave you mentioned GAT this very historic 660 00:39:24,400 --> 00:39:26,600 Speaker 2: speech A Davos, and I think the first half is 661 00:39:26,600 --> 00:39:30,040 Speaker 2: correct in terms of identifying that we've lived under a 662 00:39:30,120 --> 00:39:33,799 Speaker 2: beautiful lie for the last few decades. But then he 663 00:39:33,840 --> 00:39:37,160 Speaker 2: gets into a weird kind of tangent of The way 664 00:39:37,200 --> 00:39:41,600 Speaker 2: to get around this is by countries choosing coalitions that 665 00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:46,480 Speaker 2: suit them, spending more money on defense, and in the 666 00:39:46,480 --> 00:39:50,040 Speaker 2: case of Canada, having less capital gains tax. These rule 667 00:39:50,040 --> 00:39:53,560 Speaker 2: things that Donald Trump both does and would support. You 668 00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:56,200 Speaker 2: don't act like China in the US if you think 669 00:39:56,280 --> 00:39:59,040 Speaker 2: China and the US are destroying the world, and similarly, 670 00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:00,920 Speaker 2: if we want to defend them, a CHRISTI from Russia, 671 00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:04,520 Speaker 2: don't act more like Russia. So I do think that 672 00:40:04,640 --> 00:40:08,040 Speaker 2: these coalitions could work, but ultimately it requires a different approach, 673 00:40:08,080 --> 00:40:11,120 Speaker 2: which once again is more about investing in democracy, in 674 00:40:11,120 --> 00:40:14,480 Speaker 2: trying to find ways past arms races, rather than simply 675 00:40:15,320 --> 00:40:17,000 Speaker 2: continuing business as usual. 676 00:40:17,160 --> 00:40:19,520 Speaker 1: But there's still the struggle that you know, there are 677 00:40:19,600 --> 00:40:23,200 Speaker 1: places in the world which are promoting these democratic values 678 00:40:23,200 --> 00:40:27,920 Speaker 1: that may, if given the opportunity, allow us to build 679 00:40:27,920 --> 00:40:32,040 Speaker 1: a world that is more egalitarian. But you have rogue 680 00:40:32,040 --> 00:40:35,560 Speaker 1: actors like Russia or these days even the United States, 681 00:40:35,880 --> 00:40:40,040 Speaker 1: who are very powerful, who have the biggest nuclear arsenal, 682 00:40:40,680 --> 00:40:44,720 Speaker 1: and that in the face of that threat, we must 683 00:40:44,920 --> 00:40:48,040 Speaker 1: everybody else must find a way to defend themselves. How 684 00:40:48,080 --> 00:40:48,880 Speaker 1: do you get out of that? 685 00:40:49,120 --> 00:40:53,239 Speaker 2: First of all, I'd like to paraphrase Marcus relius. The 686 00:40:53,280 --> 00:40:55,239 Speaker 2: best insult to give to an enemy is not to 687 00:40:55,280 --> 00:40:58,600 Speaker 2: become like them. And secondly, I feel like we often 688 00:40:58,760 --> 00:41:03,360 Speaker 2: over below how underfraat we currently are. So prior to 689 00:41:03,360 --> 00:41:06,680 Speaker 2: the Russian invasion of Ukraine, most of the different simulation, 690 00:41:07,040 --> 00:41:11,640 Speaker 2: water gaming, etc. All predicted that if Russia mobilized its military, 691 00:41:11,680 --> 00:41:13,560 Speaker 2: it would wipe for Ukraine in less than a month 692 00:41:13,640 --> 00:41:15,680 Speaker 2: and be on the doorstep of Europe within a few months, 693 00:41:15,920 --> 00:41:19,239 Speaker 2: even a few weeks potentially. We found actually Russia's ended 694 00:41:19,320 --> 00:41:21,000 Speaker 2: up being a bit of a toothless target. To be frank, 695 00:41:21,239 --> 00:41:23,440 Speaker 2: it has struggled to keep a small amount of the 696 00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:26,120 Speaker 2: land in Ukraine. Do we really think it's going to 697 00:41:26,160 --> 00:41:31,279 Speaker 2: take over all Western Europe and the US? Yes, it's 698 00:41:31,320 --> 00:41:35,799 Speaker 2: a problem, But ultimately are we going to change the 699 00:41:35,880 --> 00:41:38,120 Speaker 2: US or even stand up to them by just becoming 700 00:41:38,160 --> 00:41:41,279 Speaker 2: more like them and letting big tech, for instance, while 701 00:41:41,320 --> 00:41:43,520 Speaker 2: walk all over the Europe and the UK. No, it's 702 00:41:43,520 --> 00:41:46,120 Speaker 2: going to be by building our own infrastructure, which is 703 00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:51,160 Speaker 2: built upon different values in comparison to what Silicon Valley has. Overall, 704 00:41:52,320 --> 00:41:54,719 Speaker 2: once again, the best way forward is to become not 705 00:41:54,800 --> 00:41:56,920 Speaker 2: like your enemies, but to forge a different path. And 706 00:41:56,960 --> 00:41:58,359 Speaker 2: I do think we're lucky to be in a world 707 00:41:58,440 --> 00:42:03,120 Speaker 2: where things are so interconnected that this is not often 708 00:42:03,200 --> 00:42:06,160 Speaker 2: a really big advantage to having something like a global war. 709 00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:13,160 Speaker 1: Thank you, look, thank you, and thank you for listening 710 00:42:13,200 --> 00:42:24,320 Speaker 1: to zero. Now for the sound of the week, mind perfect. 711 00:42:25,200 --> 00:42:27,840 Speaker 1: That is the sound of the Great Britain team curling 712 00:42:28,040 --> 00:42:32,040 Speaker 1: at the recently concluded Winter Olympics. The team lost the 713 00:42:32,080 --> 00:42:35,240 Speaker 1: gold medal match to Canada. If you like this episode, 714 00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:37,239 Speaker 1: please take a moment to rate and review the show 715 00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:41,480 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, and Spotify. This episode was produced 716 00:42:41,520 --> 00:42:44,520 Speaker 1: by Oscar boyd Our Team music is composed by Wonderly 717 00:42:44,920 --> 00:42:48,919 Speaker 1: Special Thanks to Samersadi, Laura Milan and Sharon chen i'm 718 00:42:48,960 --> 00:42:50,800 Speaker 1: Akshadrati back soon.