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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast podcasts.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second.

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Speaker 3: Welcome into the Action Network podcast. We are presented by

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Speaker 3: bet MGM.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host today, Brendan Glasen, joined by Billy Ward

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Speaker 1: and Sean Sorillo. That means it's time for best bets

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Speaker 1: in regards to the UFC betting card UFC three to

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Speaker 1: oh two going down at the Prudential Center in New

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Speaker 1: Jersey this weekend. It's been a bit we didn't have

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Speaker 1: a podcast last week there was a week off in

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Speaker 1: the UFC, so we're back at it. We'll go through

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Speaker 1: the fight of the night that Shawn and Billy have identified.

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Speaker 1: We'll also get to underdogs, props and best bets.

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Speaker 3: We got a whole lot to get to.

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Speaker 1: We'll start with the main event fellas Islam Makachev and

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Speaker 1: Dustin Ployer. Is your head to head here in the

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Speaker 1: lightweight title fight?

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Speaker 3: Sean Zarrillo.

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Speaker 1: When we look at the line, of course, it's a Makachev,

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Speaker 1: a significant favorite. What might be first off worthy price

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Speaker 1: and what's another approach to maybe betting it besides laying

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Speaker 1: six six hundred bucks to take home one hundred.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I do think the price is justified, and it's

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Speaker 4: a very similar matchup stylistically to pois last fight against

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Speaker 4: Ben was SAINTONI in terms of him just having to

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Speaker 4: defend grappling and maybe having a punter's chance to pull

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Speaker 4: this thing off. And I think the most important factor

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Speaker 4: of note is Dustin's age thirty five years old and

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Speaker 4: fighters who are thirty five years old or older at

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Speaker 4: one one hundred and fifty five pounds or below lightweight

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Speaker 4: or below or zero to fifteen in UFC title blots

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Speaker 4: that I believe welter weights are two and eight if

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Speaker 4: you go up just a division higher. So that thirty

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Speaker 4: five year old cut line seems to be, you know,

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Speaker 4: pretty significant for showing that drop off in age and

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Speaker 4: athleticism and speed, and Dustin, before his last fight against Santini,

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Speaker 4: had also been knocked out by Justin Gaicheen. I was

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Speaker 4: expecting a decline in athleticism, in speed and didn't look like,

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Speaker 4: you know, the best version of himself across the first

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Speaker 4: seven and a half plus minutes that fight against Saint

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Speaker 4: Deny until he ultimately found the knockout.

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Speaker 5: Just kept defending, grappling.

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Speaker 4: Kept pulling guillotine and kept scrambling back to his feet

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Speaker 4: and eventually Satany tired and Dustin knocked him out. And

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Speaker 4: we hadn't really seen Santiny extended very much. You know,

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Speaker 4: he fights at a crazy pace that was likely to

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Speaker 4: ask him out, but he also was dealing with staph

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Speaker 4: infection coming into that fight, and staph infection can absolutely

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Speaker 4: deplete your gas tank, deplete your strength, and deplete your effectiveness.

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Speaker 4: Now it is worth noting it seems like Islam Maakachev

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Speaker 4: might be dealing with staph infection on one of his legs,

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Speaker 4: and if that is going to affect him at all,

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Speaker 4: maybe Dustin does staph infection his way to the title

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Speaker 4: through his past few opponents, But I don't think he

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Speaker 4: should be getting a title shot here. You know, one

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Speaker 4: win removed from that loss to Gaichee and shown in

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Speaker 4: his loss to Charles Lavera like big grappling deficiency, and

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Speaker 4: that is ultimately where I think he loses the fight.

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Speaker 4: Sixty three percent takedown defense for his career, and when

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Speaker 4: he's going against guys for going to proactively grapple or

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Speaker 4: really strong lessers like Makachev, he shows very little resistance

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Speaker 4: to those takedowns. He's not as a depth of a

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Speaker 4: scrambler typically, as he showed in that Santiny fight, and

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Speaker 4: when he does scramble, he tends to give his back.

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Speaker 4: So I would expect at some point Makachev takes his

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Speaker 4: back and finishes him in the same way that his teammate,

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Speaker 4: if even her Marongo Medow did, which is by rue

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Speaker 4: naked choke. But I am expecting Mackachev by submission in

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Speaker 4: some fashion, either on the back or from top mount

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Speaker 4: So Makachev plus one hundred even money by submission that

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Speaker 4: would have been my betefit. This fight projected it closer

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Speaker 4: to minus tween point thirty. Was a little bit interested

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Speaker 4: in the ground of pound Agle and making taking him

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Speaker 4: by Kotko at a big juice your number. But I

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Speaker 4: do think Dustin is likelier to roll to the back

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Speaker 4: and give up the neck Benee to get pounded out

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Speaker 4: for a mounts so Islam by submission.

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Speaker 5: How I'm betting the main event on Saturday.

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Speaker 1: All right, Billy Ward, You've got your Action Network Luck

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Speaker 1: ratings out for the UFC card. You put that out

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Speaker 1: earlier in the week, and Poier undervalued.

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Speaker 3: Does that mean you like the money? Line price.

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Speaker 1: I know the price has normally changed by the time

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Speaker 1: you write the article to when we get to the

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Speaker 1: podcast recording, but what is your stance it.

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Speaker 6: Does I'm taking a swing on the underdog here. I

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Speaker 6: think it was plus four seventy five at the time

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Speaker 6: of the article, so kind of sort of called the

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Speaker 6: top because it's came down to about plus four fifty.

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Speaker 6: Part of my logic there was just that the fan

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Speaker 6: interest is going to be much higher on Poier. You're

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Speaker 6: almost certainly going to get some CLV at some point

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Speaker 6: here if you can pick the top on Dustin Poyer.

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Speaker 6: But there's a few reasons I'm going to start with

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Speaker 6: probably the silliest one. Do either of you guys know

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Speaker 6: about the Polo Costa curse?

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Speaker 5: No?

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Speaker 6: Okay, I wasn't sure. I thought us, Yeah, we're going

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Speaker 6: to talk about Polo Costa in a minute. In fights

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Speaker 6: where Paolo Costa is on the card, the defending champion

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Speaker 6: ish to eight. Looking up through his career, there is

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Speaker 6: one card where Paulo Costa was on it. Three title

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Speaker 6: holders I'll drop their belt. Of course, that doesn't extend

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Speaker 6: to win. Paulo Costa himself as fighting for the title

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Speaker 6: that's the only thing that messes up the curse. So

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Speaker 6: since we're talking about you know, streaks and trends and

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Speaker 6: age related curses, to get back to the age, he's

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Speaker 6: like two and a half years older than is on Markachev.

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Speaker 6: It's not like Makachev is twenty seven to twenty eight.

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Speaker 6: If Poitier was later thirties, not just turned thirty five,

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Speaker 6: I'd be concerned with that. Said, Makachev is obviously the

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Speaker 6: A side here, right. We saw what happened with Habib.

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Speaker 6: I did notice something interesting with how Habib and Makachev grapple.

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Speaker 6: Where Habib has a really good shot from the outside,

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Speaker 6: he'll kind of wait till his opponent hits that black

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Speaker 6: line and just run him into the fence and take

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Speaker 6: him down. Makachev the best majority of his takedowns comes

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Speaker 6: from clinch trips, dragged down stuff like that. With Poyer's footwork,

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Speaker 6: if he fights a smart game plan, he's got a

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Speaker 6: little bit of height and reach here, he can stay

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Speaker 6: out of those clinch situations. In theory, at least this

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Speaker 6: one standing. And then the other factor for me is

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Speaker 6: the gloves. People are going to talk a lot about

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Speaker 6: these new gloves at UFC three ZHO two. There's about

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Speaker 6: one third less padding than there was before, depending on

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Speaker 6: what weight class and what sized glove you have. That

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Speaker 6: obviously gives an advantage to the more powerful striker, which

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Speaker 6: is tooier. The thing I don't think people are talking

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Speaker 6: quite enough about is that a lot of the grappler

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Speaker 6: type guys have complained that it's harder to open their

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Speaker 6: hands get grips and stuff like that. If you're someone

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Speaker 6: like Habibe who shoots and wraps up the legs with

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Speaker 6: your whole arms, I'm not really worried about that. If

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Speaker 6: you're looking for all kinds of inside trips and clinch work,

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Speaker 6: you kind of need to be able to get those

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Speaker 6: grips work that risk control. That's a huge part of

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Speaker 6: Makajev's game. So that's one thing. He said something complaining

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Speaker 6: about the gloves this week in one of the interviews.

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Speaker 6: He was not a fan of it. I think that's

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Speaker 6: kind of an underrated aspect here, not just the boost

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Speaker 6: to knockouts, the boost to striking power for those guys,

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Speaker 6: but also making it harder to grapple. With all that said,

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Speaker 6: it's a long shot for a reason. Don't go putting

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Speaker 6: multiple units on this or whatever. I took half a

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Speaker 6: unit plus four seventy five on Poyer still get him

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Speaker 6: around plus four fifty somewhere in that region.

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Speaker 5: I'd take it.

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Speaker 6: Not a big bet, and also maybe just a little

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Speaker 6: bit betting with my heart rather than my head.

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Speaker 1: O any sean, any pushback or any kind of understanding

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Speaker 1: is to where Billy's coming from.

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Speaker 4: I think Islam finishes him in round one. I think

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Speaker 4: it's quick. I think it's canless. I think he Malshams

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Speaker 4: very awful against Satany, I mean like awful. He was

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Speaker 4: getting destroyed. I believe Benoa was a minus nine hundred

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Speaker 4: favorite after the first round, and he just caught him

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Speaker 4: in the right moment.

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Speaker 5: And he can do that again. You know, Islam doesn't

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Speaker 5: have the best chin.

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Speaker 4: He's a little bit more he's less risk averse than Kabib.

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Speaker 4: He's a little bit more risk tolerant than Kabib. We've

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Speaker 4: seen it him striking it out with Volkanovski, knocking Volkanovsky

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Speaker 4: out on the feet. But just the fact that he

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Speaker 4: was willing to engage with Volkanovski on the feet. You know,

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Speaker 4: even when Kabib fought Gaichie and stayed on the feet

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Speaker 4: with him around. He didn't fully open up like Islam

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Speaker 4: opened up against Volks, so he can put.

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Speaker 5: Himself in positions to get hurt. You know, Dustin has

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Speaker 5: a hunter's chance.

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Speaker 4: I think the line is about accurate in terms of

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Speaker 4: estimating what that chance is. Twenty percent. I think that's

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Speaker 4: about right. You know, at the upside for him potentially

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Speaker 4: clipping Islam, we've seen him in the past, you know,

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Speaker 4: Kabib never knocked out, never knocked down.

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Speaker 5: Islam has been Chaot and Kao Cole.

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Speaker 4: So the chin is there to be cracked if Dustin

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Speaker 4: can hit him, and he may have opportunities to do so.

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Speaker 4: He's a great boxer and as I said, Islam willing

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Speaker 4: to engage.

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Speaker 5: You know what if he doesn't go for the.

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Speaker 4: Takedown right away, what if he tries to let it

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Speaker 4: play out on the feet. But I think if he

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Speaker 4: decides to grapple, I think if he's proactive about it,

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Speaker 4: I think he runs through.

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Speaker 5: Him like he did with Van Hooker and Bobby Green.

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Speaker 4: Like I do think his submission offense, or his ability

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Speaker 4: to finish fights, his intention of finishing fights, Like I said,

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Speaker 4: he's he's a little bit more risk tolerant than Kabib,

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Speaker 4: and I do think as a result, he's also a

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Speaker 4: little bit more aggressive in terms of attacking the finish,

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Speaker 4: So if he wants the NS in round one, I

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Speaker 4: think he does.

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Speaker 6: Part of that, I think, too, is takedown style forces

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Speaker 6: him to be a little bit more upright and a

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Speaker 6: little bit more in the pocket on the feet because

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Speaker 6: Abibe would shoot from like five feet away, which any

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Speaker 6: grappling wrestling coach will tell you not to do. But

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Speaker 6: when you're a baby, you can kind of sort it

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Speaker 6: out and just finish it anyway. Where Islam, he needs

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Speaker 6: to close that distance, so you either can strike your

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Speaker 6: way into distance, or you can kind of just walk

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Speaker 6: forward and hope you don't get hit. Those are his

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Speaker 6: two choices which people I think are kind of overfitting

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Speaker 6: the Habib model with Islam in general, but specifically in

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Speaker 6: this fight, because Poie has that match up against Abiba

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Speaker 6: yep Okay farre.

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Speaker 1: To the night middleweight tilt between cost and Strickland. The

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Speaker 1: price right now is Trickland minus to sixty ish minus

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Speaker 1: to sixty five cost A plus two fifteen on the

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Speaker 1: money line, rounds at total at four and a half Zerillo.

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Speaker 3: Do we have a maybe a more tightly contested fight

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Speaker 3: here in what are your potential betting angles in.

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Speaker 4: Terms of the money line side, I do think it's

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Speaker 4: Coaster or Pass, but I'd probably prefer about his finish

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Speaker 4: only props. He's about plus one to forty five in

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Speaker 4: the finish only market. I do think he's the bigger hitter,

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Speaker 4: the more powerful puncher, and even though he hasn't had

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Speaker 4: a knockout in some time, doesn't even have a win

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Speaker 4: against anybody other than Brooke Lugrockold since twenty nineteen. He

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Speaker 4: did look competitive against Robert Whitaker and landed that spinning

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Speaker 4: he'll hick or he'll kick, and we've seen Strickland knocked

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Speaker 4: out by the same technique in the past, so very

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Speaker 4: good like Twitter compilations side by side videos of the

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Speaker 4: kick that Coast that landed on Whittaker and the kick

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Speaker 4: that Strickland had landed on him when he was knocked out.

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Speaker 4: But I think the five round aspect, the fact that

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Speaker 4: this is a five round fight really lends itself to

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Speaker 4: Sean Strickland. If this were three rounds, I'd probably be

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Speaker 4: taking Coast. They hear at plus two o five for

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Speaker 4: us A five round fight, Strickland is really likely to

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Speaker 4: win the fourth and fifth rounds win the back half

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Speaker 4: this fight, so finish only market considering costa, I think

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Speaker 4: Strickland's finish equity comes in rounds four, rounds five, the

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Speaker 4: latter half of his fight. Coasta may also be dealing

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Speaker 4: with staph infection as well, nothing new for him, he said,

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Speaker 4: staph infection seemingly every time he fights, but just worth

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Speaker 4: noting in terms of the cardio angle and the late props.

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Speaker 4: But I think the way the best way to play this,

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Speaker 4: aside from Coast to finish only would be Strickland live

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Speaker 4: and his late props. You could get Strickland round four

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Speaker 4: plus sixteen hundred round five at twenty to one, and

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Speaker 4: I think you'll probably find a better live price on

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Speaker 4: him after rounds one or rounds two. He does like

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Speaker 4: to take the first round off sometimes get his reads,

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Speaker 4: so Coast that could win that first round could see

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Speaker 4: Coast to hurting him in rounds two or round three

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Speaker 4: and maybe making you know, what was a Sewan fight

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Speaker 4: to that point a little bit closer. So looking for

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Speaker 4: a better live price on Strickland anytime after round one,

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Speaker 4: I expect him to win the later rounds at increasingly

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Speaker 4: higher e clips and then would anticipate a potential round finish,

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Speaker 4: so round four, round five, sixteen to one to twenty

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Speaker 4: to one, respectively. I think those are the most interesting

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Speaker 4: ways about this one.

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Speaker 1: Billy would say, you for this middleweight till between a

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Speaker 1: part of me it was Costa and Strickland.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, pretty I mean pretty much the same thoughts as Sean.

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Speaker 6: His version's a little bit safer where you do the

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Speaker 6: finish only because then if it goes to a decision,

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Speaker 6: you get that refunded. My thought is Paulo Costa by

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Speaker 6: KO around plus three fifty and then again followed by

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Speaker 6: that Sean Strickland life. Bet if he's gonna win it,

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Speaker 6: it's going to be a knockout, right. I mean, Costa's

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Speaker 6: striking defense is so bad it's not even bad. He

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Speaker 6: just doesn't do it like it's not. He might be

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Speaker 6: good at it if he tried, but he doesn't care.

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Speaker 6: He just kind of walks forward, gets hit Strickland Land

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Speaker 6: so much ridiculous volume that it's not going to look

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Speaker 6: good on the judges for Costa pretty much no matter

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Speaker 6: how this fight's going, but he hits way way harder.

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Speaker 6: As I talked about before, these new gloves are a

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Speaker 6: little bit lighter, should lead to more knockouts in general.

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Speaker 6: And then again, the cardio for Costa under the best

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Speaker 6: of circumstances is not great. Five round fight possible staff

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Speaker 6: infection might have added some muscle in this post, you

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Speaker 6: sada Era thanks to the secret juice. There's a lot

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Speaker 6: to think that Sean Strickland takes over late. So my

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Speaker 6: goal is to get plus money on both sides. If

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Speaker 6: you got cost A kot plus three fifty and you

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Speaker 6: get Strickland down it minus one fifty minus one seventy

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Speaker 6: after round one, you can still harm that out pretty easily.

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Speaker 6: So pretty much in line with Sean.

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Speaker 4: I should managine too. Strickland is a four inch reach

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Speaker 4: advantage here. Robert Whittaker was jabbing coast up for most

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Speaker 4: of that fight. I think he only get a one

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Speaker 4: inch reach advantage, So Strickland more pronounced reach advantage and

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Speaker 4: a jab merchant. He's going to be jabbing coast up

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Speaker 4: for the majority of the fighting. That's where the volume

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Speaker 4: is going to come from. He's gonna land one hundred.

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Speaker 1: one plus gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler onto underdogs,

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Speaker 1: favorite dogs on the card Shonzilla for UFC three to

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Speaker 1: zero two.

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Speaker 3: Who emerges three?

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Speaker 5: I want to discuss one.

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Speaker 4: I'm definitely betting twom figuring out how I want to

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Speaker 4: bet or if I'm going about them. So the first

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Speaker 4: would be Jocelyn Edwards at plus one fifty five. Fans

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Speaker 4: are picking her opponent Perez at about a seventy percent clip,

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Speaker 4: so she does seem like a public favorite. Edwards has

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Speaker 4: been to decision all seven times in her UFC fights,

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Speaker 4: two of them split, but she does have pretty good volume.

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Speaker 4: She's put up as many as one hundred and sixty

337
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Speaker 4: strikes across fifteen minutes, so she does pump out volume,

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Speaker 4: and I think she is the better Cardia than Perez,

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Speaker 4: so round three I would definitely favor her. She's taller,

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Speaker 4: she's longer, She's always in close in competitive decisions, and

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Speaker 4: this fight is minus two thirty five to reach a decision,

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Speaker 4: so a pretty typical angle.

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Speaker 5: Billy and I.

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00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:04,360
Speaker 4: Attack fights likely go to decision taking the underdog in

345
00:16:04,400 --> 00:16:08,000
Speaker 4: that fight. Also interested in Edwards buy decision at plus

346
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Speaker 4: two ninety, So maybe some money line, maybe some decision proper.

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Speaker 5: Maybe I'll just throw that decision prop.

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Speaker 4: In around Robin, but I'll definitely be finding a way

349
00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:18,560
Speaker 4: to bet Jocelyn Edwards this weekend. The two I'm less

350
00:16:18,600 --> 00:16:21,240
Speaker 4: sure about. The first would be Mickey Gallett about plus

351
00:16:21,240 --> 00:16:25,960
Speaker 4: three ten. I think Basil hefes his opponent is overrated

352
00:16:26,400 --> 00:16:30,440
Speaker 4: after overperforming as a big underdog in his UFC debut,

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00:16:30,440 --> 00:16:33,080
Speaker 4: and again another angle to billion and I typically attack

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Speaker 4: a fighter swinging from a plus five hundred underdog to

355
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Speaker 4: a minus four hundred favorite after overperforming but still losing

356
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Speaker 4: in a split decision that I think ultimately he did

357
00:16:44,160 --> 00:16:47,080
Speaker 4: deserve to lose based on damage, but just think the

358
00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:50,920
Speaker 4: adjustment in the price is kind of insane. On basil here,

359
00:16:50,960 --> 00:16:54,000
Speaker 4: he can grapple, but he's not a particularly potent striker,

360
00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:57,200
Speaker 4: very sloppy with his technique, So not a guy who's

361
00:16:57,240 --> 00:17:00,440
Speaker 4: going to separate on damage. And I think ultimately Mickey

362
00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:03,080
Speaker 4: Gall being able to grapple and make this makes this

363
00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:06,520
Speaker 4: fight more competitive than that plus three ten money line indicates,

364
00:17:06,560 --> 00:17:09,320
Speaker 4: so probably taking a shot on Mickey Gall in some

365
00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:13,440
Speaker 4: respective plus three ten. And then lastly, Zeleski dos Santo's

366
00:17:13,480 --> 00:17:16,440
Speaker 4: at plus one fifty five as likely to benefit as

367
00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:19,320
Speaker 4: anybody from the Postysada era of UFC. This guy is

368
00:17:19,359 --> 00:17:23,840
Speaker 4: a absolutely yoked older man thirty seven years old. He

369
00:17:24,040 --> 00:17:27,320
Speaker 4: is older than Brown. Brown is longer, Brown is taller

370
00:17:27,440 --> 00:17:30,639
Speaker 4: four inch five intre each advantage four inches taller. Is

371
00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:33,680
Speaker 4: also the faster man, but he gets hurt in every fight.

372
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Speaker 4: I love Randy Rudboy Brown. I love betting on him.

373
00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:38,960
Speaker 4: It's from Queens. I'm from Queens, so there's a lot,

374
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Speaker 4: you know that makes me support Randy Brown. He's also

375
00:17:41,880 --> 00:17:43,639
Speaker 4: going to be the hometown fighter here. I believe he

376
00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:48,000
Speaker 4: lives in New Jersey. But Celeski can crack and at

377
00:17:48,040 --> 00:17:51,439
Speaker 4: some point he will probably hurt Brown. And Brown seems

378
00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:53,920
Speaker 4: to get clipped in every single one of his fights.

379
00:17:53,960 --> 00:17:56,879
Speaker 4: So maybe he's Aleski by knockout. Maybe he's Aleski on

380
00:17:56,920 --> 00:18:00,000
Speaker 4: the money line. Maybe an emotional hedge my love for Randy,

381
00:18:00,359 --> 00:18:02,720
Speaker 4: But I do think Randy Brown on the main card

382
00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:04,440
Speaker 4: could be in a little.

383
00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:04,720
Speaker 5: Bit of trouble.

384
00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:07,480
Speaker 4: I could absolutely see him getting clipped and Celeski being

385
00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:08,760
Speaker 4: the one upset on the main card.

386
00:18:09,680 --> 00:18:10,800
Speaker 3: Billy, You're underdog.

387
00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:14,000
Speaker 1: This is gonna go against Zerillo's best bet later in

388
00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:16,639
Speaker 1: the show. But you know, save your thoughts, Sean, Billy

389
00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:17,760
Speaker 1: You're underdog play.

390
00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:21,200
Speaker 6: Yeah, we got a fair amount of disagreement here, only

391
00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:23,600
Speaker 6: one of the ones he just mentioned. I'm fully with

392
00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:26,480
Speaker 6: him on johns Lyn Edwards. Ze Laski's probably the sharp

393
00:18:26,520 --> 00:18:28,879
Speaker 6: side too. I feel like he's been thirty seven for

394
00:18:28,920 --> 00:18:30,760
Speaker 6: like nine years at this point, but he is somehow

395
00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:32,960
Speaker 6: still thirty seven years old, not that big of an

396
00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:34,919
Speaker 6: age gap. The only one I'm going to push back

397
00:18:34,960 --> 00:18:37,520
Speaker 6: on what he just said. Mickey gall actually already lost

398
00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:39,920
Speaker 6: a grappling match to Basil Jfez and is clearly the

399
00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:42,880
Speaker 6: worst striker and stuff. So it's typically in a mickeygall fight,

400
00:18:42,960 --> 00:18:44,679
Speaker 6: you say, ah, yeah, but he might be able to grapple.

401
00:18:44,840 --> 00:18:47,359
Speaker 6: Not sure that's the case there, So probably not betting

402
00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:50,080
Speaker 6: at myself, so I'm not laying that kind of juice anyway.

403
00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:52,240
Speaker 6: The one that I'm going with is Phil Rowe plus

404
00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:54,920
Speaker 6: one thirty five. Heading into his last fight, he was

405
00:18:54,960 --> 00:18:58,480
Speaker 6: on a three fight winning streak, all knockouts against relatively

406
00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:02,200
Speaker 6: lower level competition, Neil Magnie to a split decision. At

407
00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:04,000
Speaker 6: this point, we all know how good Neil Magnie is.

408
00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:06,440
Speaker 6: You know, he's upset so many prospects, sent so many

409
00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:09,359
Speaker 6: guys back down the list. Matthews has never beat a

410
00:19:09,440 --> 00:19:12,399
Speaker 6: ranked opponent, and he is a classic, like he's gonna

411
00:19:12,400 --> 00:19:15,200
Speaker 6: beat the guys he's supposed to beat, and he's not

412
00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:17,639
Speaker 6: gonna beat the guys he's not supposed to beat, right, Like,

413
00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:20,639
Speaker 6: he's a good filtering level between like the kind of

414
00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:23,080
Speaker 6: upper half of the division in lower half. I just

415
00:19:23,080 --> 00:19:26,000
Speaker 6: don't think he's that great, And this is another fight.

416
00:19:26,240 --> 00:19:28,399
Speaker 6: This is something I look at heavily in my luck ratings,

417
00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:31,119
Speaker 6: but had one other judge given one more round to

418
00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:33,720
Speaker 6: Phil row in his last fight against Neil Magni, he'd

419
00:19:33,720 --> 00:19:36,600
Speaker 6: be a big favorite here or this match wouldn't even

420
00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:38,960
Speaker 6: be made. So I like Phil Rowe at plus money,

421
00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:40,720
Speaker 6: it wouldn't take him as a favorite here. It just

422
00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:44,280
Speaker 6: feels like an overreaction to a very close split decision.

423
00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:46,480
Speaker 6: And it's such a big step up in competition for

424
00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:49,280
Speaker 6: Jake Matthews, at least relative to the guys he's beat.

425
00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:49,840
Speaker 5: He's fought some.

426
00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:52,560
Speaker 6: Other ranked opponents in the past, but he tends to

427
00:19:52,800 --> 00:19:55,320
Speaker 6: fall back down pretty precipitously when he fights tough guys.

428
00:19:56,880 --> 00:19:59,200
Speaker 1: All Right, how about props UFC three to ZHO two

429
00:19:59,280 --> 00:20:02,560
Speaker 1: prop market, That's what interests us this week, Sean.

430
00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:05,680
Speaker 4: I'm gonna say Jelaton Ameida inside the distance at minus

431
00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:08,000
Speaker 4: one fifty. I'm also a little bit interested in his

432
00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:10,359
Speaker 4: knockout prop at plus thir eighty. That'll probably be the

433
00:20:10,400 --> 00:20:12,680
Speaker 4: round robin piece for me from this fight. But the

434
00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:16,480
Speaker 4: inside the distance, bet, I think the safer route. And

435
00:20:16,800 --> 00:20:19,000
Speaker 4: he's coming off of a very odd knockout loss to

436
00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:21,600
Speaker 4: Curtis Blades where he dominated the grappling in the first round,

437
00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:23,760
Speaker 4: tried to get back to the takedown in the second

438
00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:26,680
Speaker 4: round and was knocked out with his hands clasped and

439
00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:28,440
Speaker 4: locked behind Blade's back.

440
00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:31,240
Speaker 5: It was a very strange knockout. But I don't think.

441
00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:33,199
Speaker 4: Jelton has a great chin, and I do think that

442
00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:35,480
Speaker 4: is ultimately what's going to prevent him from getting into

443
00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:37,720
Speaker 4: title contention. But this is a big, big, big step

444
00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:42,480
Speaker 4: down in competition relative to that Blades fight. Romanov not

445
00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:45,720
Speaker 4: only a lower level UFC heavyweight. He can grapple, but

446
00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:48,320
Speaker 4: he's not the better grappler in this fight, and I

447
00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:51,840
Speaker 4: don't think his striking is enough to really threaten Amda.

448
00:20:51,960 --> 00:20:54,800
Speaker 4: But in terms of the athleticism and the physique and

449
00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:59,879
Speaker 4: the speed differential, Jelton just destroys him. And Romanov is

450
00:20:59,880 --> 00:21:03,320
Speaker 4: all also a bit of a quitter. He looks ballooned up.

451
00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:05,800
Speaker 4: You know, his physique is an absolute mess. He cut

452
00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:08,080
Speaker 4: down to two hundred and thirty five two hundred and

453
00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:10,960
Speaker 4: forty five pounds for a couple of fights during this

454
00:21:11,119 --> 00:21:14,600
Speaker 4: UFC heavyweight tenure. After that he ballooned back up, and

455
00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:17,240
Speaker 4: his physique right now looks as bloated as he has

456
00:21:17,320 --> 00:21:20,960
Speaker 4: looked across you know, five plus years in the UFC now,

457
00:21:21,040 --> 00:21:24,040
Speaker 4: so physically doesn't look like he's there doesn't look like

458
00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:27,760
Speaker 4: he's working particularly hard prepping for these fights. Jalton Almeida

459
00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:30,720
Speaker 4: is as ripped as any fighter you will find in

460
00:21:30,800 --> 00:21:34,320
Speaker 4: the division. He should be fighting a division lower potentially even,

461
00:21:34,359 --> 00:21:36,840
Speaker 4: but has found it easier to just not cut too

462
00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:40,760
Speaker 4: much fighting at heavyweights. So expecting him to take down

463
00:21:40,840 --> 00:21:43,440
Speaker 4: Romanov pretty quickly or maybe not even go for the

464
00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:46,280
Speaker 4: takedown and finish the fight with some body kicks or

465
00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:48,879
Speaker 4: some strikes. But yeah, I think Romanov is a quitter.

466
00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:52,439
Speaker 4: I don't like his gas tank. Almeida should finish him,

467
00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:55,879
Speaker 4: and he has sufficient cardio for at least fifteen minutes.

468
00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:57,719
Speaker 4: He proved in that Derek Lewis fight where he had

469
00:21:57,720 --> 00:22:00,520
Speaker 4: to keep taking Lewis down across twenty five minutes and

470
00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:03,520
Speaker 4: eventually went to a full main event decision that he

471
00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:06,800
Speaker 4: can last and he can extend his gas tank across

472
00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:09,960
Speaker 4: a fifteen minute fight at minimums. So like al made

473
00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:12,960
Speaker 4: inside the distance, and I think Romanov likely to turtle

474
00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:15,159
Speaker 4: up and get finished by ground and power that he

475
00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:17,480
Speaker 4: is to let a submission get sunk it in. But

476
00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:21,040
Speaker 4: that's just more of a greasy theory. With regards to

477
00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:22,879
Speaker 4: the KO prop, I think he finishes it one way

478
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:23,280
Speaker 4: or another.

479
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:25,560
Speaker 1: All right, and Billy, you're gonna go to the same

480
00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:29,000
Speaker 1: fight and discuss all made up from a prop standpoint.

481
00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:31,000
Speaker 6: Yeah, I am, and this is I did the fight

482
00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:32,960
Speaker 6: preview for this one at Action Network to go. Check

483
00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:36,000
Speaker 6: out the article for more details. Heavily correlates with Sean,

484
00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:38,440
Speaker 6: but I was surprised his under two and a half

485
00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:41,120
Speaker 6: takedowns line was it plus money earlier in the week.

486
00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:43,879
Speaker 6: Now it's about minus one twenty For a lot of

487
00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:45,520
Speaker 6: the reasons that Sean said, I think that's a really

488
00:22:45,560 --> 00:22:48,280
Speaker 6: good bet to take one. He could just choose to

489
00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:50,760
Speaker 6: strike here like that's probably where his bigger advantage is

490
00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:53,960
Speaker 6: against Romanov. Romanov was, you know, a world level freestyle

491
00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:57,560
Speaker 6: wrestler before getting into MMA. He did a Romanov did

492
00:22:57,560 --> 00:22:59,879
Speaker 6: a grappling tournament recently where he waded in North two.

493
00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:02,159
Speaker 6: So you know, that's a big boy to try to

494
00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:04,920
Speaker 6: take down. If I'm fighting a bigger, less skilled guy,

495
00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:08,560
Speaker 6: striking is easier than grapling, So that's one. The other part,

496
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:10,600
Speaker 6: he might take him down once or twice, and that's

497
00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:12,720
Speaker 6: just it. When you're that big, it's real hard to

498
00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:15,359
Speaker 6: get up. For everyone other than Derek Lewis Derek Lewis

499
00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:18,080
Speaker 6: totally breaks that mold. Every other heavy fighter once they

500
00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:20,200
Speaker 6: get put on their back's kind of like this where

501
00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:23,200
Speaker 6: the round's gonna go. So unless it goes all three rounds,

502
00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:25,480
Speaker 6: hard for him to get a third takedown. And yeah,

503
00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:27,359
Speaker 6: Sean pointed out, I think he just finishes them once

504
00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:30,040
Speaker 6: they're down there anyway, which is another factor to it.

505
00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:32,879
Speaker 6: We all think about Meta as a grappler, but his

506
00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:36,160
Speaker 6: foundation was boxing. He boxed for quite some time before

507
00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:39,280
Speaker 6: he ever even learned any grappling. I'm guessing you know,

508
00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:41,639
Speaker 6: he got some pushback from the fans and Dana White

509
00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:44,359
Speaker 6: for not finishing Derek Lewis, and then he got himself

510
00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:47,679
Speaker 6: knocked out by not extending for the finish against Curtis Blades.

511
00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:50,040
Speaker 6: If your gialut no mada. There's a lot of incentives

512
00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:52,520
Speaker 6: here too. Once you get a guy down, work a

513
00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:54,359
Speaker 6: little bit harder to get the finished. Don't just coast

514
00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:57,400
Speaker 6: these rounds out because at heavyweight everyone hits so hard.

515
00:23:57,560 --> 00:24:00,320
Speaker 6: Even a guy like Alexander Romanov can mess around and

516
00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:02,920
Speaker 6: catch you with one. So I expect to see a

517
00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:05,679
Speaker 6: more aggressive diouts and Almeta, which lends to both the

518
00:24:05,680 --> 00:24:08,040
Speaker 6: Shawn's bats but I also think kind of an alternate

519
00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:11,080
Speaker 6: angle on that is you take those underund takedowns. There's

520
00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:13,119
Speaker 6: just way more ways for that to go right, for

521
00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:15,560
Speaker 6: them to go wrong. Pretty much the only way it

522
00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:17,920
Speaker 6: goes wrong is a repeat of the Derek Lewis fight

523
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:20,200
Speaker 6: over three rounds, where it's one takedown per round.

524
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:21,280
Speaker 3: Okay, it makes sense.

525
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:24,400
Speaker 1: I mean, can I understand the correlation there? And there's

526
00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:26,200
Speaker 1: just another way of going about it?

527
00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:29,520
Speaker 3: Very good? Okay, here we go.

528
00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 1: Jake best bets, Jake Matthews. Why is Jake Matthews your pick?

529
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:34,800
Speaker 1: Schanzerlo so going against Philly.

530
00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:38,040
Speaker 4: I have a couple of best bets are one best bet,

531
00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:39,959
Speaker 4: one final bet, but I think I do prefer Matthews

532
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:43,159
Speaker 4: as my best bet, and I thought Rollo fucking awful

533
00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:46,040
Speaker 4: in that fight against Maggie. Actually, if he was relatively competent,

534
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:49,560
Speaker 4: I think he destroys Maggie. He kept accepting bottom position.

535
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:51,919
Speaker 4: This is a guy who takes a lot of grappling matches,

536
00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 4: loses a lot of grappling matches, but.

537
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:55,040
Speaker 5: He's very confident in his grappling.

538
00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:57,359
Speaker 4: The problem is once you take him down, once you

539
00:24:57,359 --> 00:24:59,160
Speaker 4: put him on his back, he stays there. He doesn't

540
00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:03,560
Speaker 4: try to get up and he has the height and

541
00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:06,040
Speaker 4: the reach, but he doesn't use it. And that's like

542
00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:09,240
Speaker 4: my biggest problem with Phil Roe as a fighter. He

543
00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:12,800
Speaker 4: prefers to use his length in grappling exchanges. He doesn't

544
00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:15,720
Speaker 4: like jab from the outside. He has really long, straight punches,

545
00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:18,360
Speaker 4: but he takes an hour to set them up. I mean,

546
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:22,280
Speaker 4: even the knockout he had over Jason Witt, Like everybody

547
00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:24,800
Speaker 4: saw the right hand coming, except for Jason Witt, who

548
00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:27,400
Speaker 4: has one of the worst chins in the UFC. But yeah,

549
00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:29,440
Speaker 4: I think Jake Matthews is just the much more well

550
00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:32,119
Speaker 4: rounded fighter. Aside from the physical advantage. You know, Row

551
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:35,600
Speaker 4: a seven inch reach advantage, huge right four inches taller,

552
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:37,760
Speaker 4: but Matthews is going to kick the crap out of

553
00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 4: his legs. He's the better offensive grappler. I think he's

554
00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:42,680
Speaker 4: going to get on top of Row and keep him

555
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:45,560
Speaker 4: on his back. The biggest issue for me, The biggest

556
00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:48,359
Speaker 4: concern for me is Matthew's chin. We've seen him chin

557
00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:51,120
Speaker 4: checked in the past, He's been knocked down in other fights,

558
00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:53,960
Speaker 4: and Roe does have those long straight punches, and even

559
00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 4: though I don't think he is particularly great power, the

560
00:25:56,880 --> 00:26:00,320
Speaker 4: amount of leverage that he gets extending that punch so

561
00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:02,760
Speaker 4: far like winding up with a baseball like it's like

562
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:06,640
Speaker 4: a baseball pitcher throwing and cracking you. Because he takes

563
00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:08,560
Speaker 4: such a windmill approach, I mean that punch has to

564
00:26:08,560 --> 00:26:11,359
Speaker 4: come all the way from here in order to land

565
00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:12,040
Speaker 4: on its target.

566
00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:14,000
Speaker 5: He is insanely long armed, So.

567
00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:17,919
Speaker 4: The leverage he generates winding up on that right hand

568
00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:19,000
Speaker 4: is very powerful.

569
00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:19,880
Speaker 5: But in terms of.

570
00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:22,840
Speaker 4: Like just straight you know, the pitter patter power when

571
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:25,719
Speaker 4: they're in normal striking exchanges, I don't think he has

572
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:28,320
Speaker 4: anything to really threaten Matthews. He's gonna have to land

573
00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:32,280
Speaker 4: a real clocking wind up right hand, so absolutely could

574
00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:35,040
Speaker 4: land the knockout. You know, could see a more competitive

575
00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:39,119
Speaker 4: fight where Matthews doesn't proactively pursue the takedowns and they

576
00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:41,280
Speaker 4: end up striking it out and the volume is pretty close.

577
00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:43,160
Speaker 5: That is a concern of mine as well.

578
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:46,240
Speaker 4: But overall, the total package of these fighters, I do

579
00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:47,119
Speaker 4: think Matthews is the.

580
00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:48,440
Speaker 5: Much more well rounded man.

581
00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:51,560
Speaker 4: Just a little bit concerned about the physicality angle with

582
00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:53,280
Speaker 4: the height and the reach on the ground and what

583
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 4: that looks like. But yeah, I think Matthews has him

584
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:58,040
Speaker 4: covered here, and I just really didn't like how Row

585
00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:00,720
Speaker 4: looked against Magne. I thought Magne looked terror and I

586
00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:04,360
Speaker 4: thought by comparison, Row also looked really bad. The biggest

587
00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:07,000
Speaker 4: betting edge, you know, the biggest projected edge that my

588
00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:10,239
Speaker 4: model spit out for this card is Sasarrol made at

589
00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:12,960
Speaker 4: minus one fifteen. I'm curious to hear Billy's thoughts on

590
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:16,320
Speaker 4: this fight as well. So fans are picking Roman Koppolov

591
00:27:16,359 --> 00:27:19,200
Speaker 4: at a fifty nine percent clip, he's the underdog. Fans

592
00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:22,400
Speaker 4: are picking Row at a fifty percent clip, He's obviously

593
00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:25,440
Speaker 4: the underdogs. So these are two fades of what I

594
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:28,439
Speaker 4: would consider public underdogs this week. And copple of I

595
00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:30,280
Speaker 4: do think needs to grapple here if he wants to

596
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:32,760
Speaker 4: win this fighter at least have a pretty big chance

597
00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:35,520
Speaker 4: of doing so. The last time he faced a pure kickboxer,

598
00:27:35,560 --> 00:27:38,040
Speaker 4: he got knocked out by Carl Roberson. He has really

599
00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:42,240
Speaker 4: good hands, he's a pretty good kickboxer himself. When he grapples,

600
00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:44,919
Speaker 4: he tends to tire route. If he's going to have

601
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:47,640
Speaker 4: to be the one offensive grappling here, I don't think

602
00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:50,680
Speaker 4: that necessarily goes well for him. Al made a decorated

603
00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:54,280
Speaker 4: kickboxer has that win over Alex Pajera in another pick'm

604
00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:57,320
Speaker 4: fight here at minus one fifteen and facing a guy

605
00:27:57,520 --> 00:28:00,520
Speaker 4: who's unlikely to have a lot of success appling him,

606
00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:03,520
Speaker 4: or if he even does, is likely to tire ro out.

607
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:06,560
Speaker 4: So I made up minus one fifteen my final bet

608
00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:08,640
Speaker 4: for this car, but a bet I do like, and

609
00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:11,320
Speaker 4: I think getting you know, a bit of a relief

610
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:14,200
Speaker 4: not having to face yet another grappler, like they're giving

611
00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:17,520
Speaker 4: him to Alex Tahara schedule where they're they're giving him

612
00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:20,320
Speaker 4: guys who are going to give him like somewhat beneficial

613
00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:22,159
Speaker 4: stylistic matchups to try.

614
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:24,880
Speaker 5: To move him up the rankings. And I actually Thoughtkapolov

615
00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:26,240
Speaker 5: would be much younger than him. He's not.

616
00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:28,600
Speaker 4: There's only a three or age differential between these fighters,

617
00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:30,480
Speaker 4: so I'll made it even though he's thirty six five

618
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:33,000
Speaker 4: professional fights coming into the UFC or four coming into

619
00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:37,320
Speaker 4: the UFC one more. Now, it's not getting some young,

620
00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:39,400
Speaker 4: you know, hungry buck. He's getting a guy around his

621
00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:42,520
Speaker 4: age who has a similar fight style. So it seems

622
00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:44,080
Speaker 4: like it's a decent matchup for him.

623
00:28:44,360 --> 00:28:46,520
Speaker 3: And that ties into Billy, You're going to go to

624
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:47,239
Speaker 3: the other side of it.

625
00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:50,480
Speaker 6: I am and Shawn alluded to it, but it's it's

626
00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:52,880
Speaker 6: the grappling here, right. Like we think of Roman Hopy

627
00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:55,440
Speaker 6: Law as primarily a striker, and he is. That's his

628
00:28:55,680 --> 00:28:58,560
Speaker 6: a side. He trains in Dagastan like you can't do

629
00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:01,800
Speaker 6: that and not accident learn how to grapple a little bit.

630
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:04,440
Speaker 6: He's got some takedowns. He was a Combat Sambo world

631
00:29:04,480 --> 00:29:08,280
Speaker 6: champion before switching to MMA. That's typically a fairly grappling

632
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:11,120
Speaker 6: heavy style, though it does allow strikes. And the other

633
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:13,120
Speaker 6: thing is if you look at Caesar Almeida's fights between

634
00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:16,040
Speaker 6: the Contender Series and his UFC debut, he's been taken

635
00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:19,040
Speaker 6: down six times, and not by good opponents, like they're

636
00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:21,240
Speaker 6: trying to give him strikers or guys that aren't going

637
00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:23,720
Speaker 6: to challenge him in the grappling, and he's still surrendered

638
00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:27,200
Speaker 6: six takedowns. Now he's managed to either get up or

639
00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:29,920
Speaker 6: survive each of those occasions and come back and win

640
00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 6: with his striking. But his striking advantage isn't as massive

641
00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:36,000
Speaker 6: over Roman Hoppy Love as it was over Dylan Budka

642
00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:38,680
Speaker 6: or Lucas Fernando, two guys that none of US has

643
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:41,680
Speaker 6: ever heard of so at plus money, basically, it's just

644
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:44,840
Speaker 6: a bet that he's going to come out and take

645
00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:47,680
Speaker 6: the easy path here, get some takedowns, and hopefully be

646
00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:50,480
Speaker 6: able to sustain it. It is tricky the cardio. At

647
00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:54,040
Speaker 6: the cardio angle here, Almada is like a much bigger,

648
00:29:54,080 --> 00:29:56,680
Speaker 6: stronger dude than Hoppy Lov. I think Hoppy Lov could

649
00:29:56,680 --> 00:29:59,600
Speaker 6: probably make one seventy when we're banking on cardio. That

650
00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 6: does kind to help a little bit, though it is

651
00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:04,160
Speaker 6: not not caring all that extra weight. So the question

652
00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 6: mark is in the cardio. But at plus money, grappler

653
00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:09,960
Speaker 6: versus streikler, at least in the context of this matchup,

654
00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:12,080
Speaker 6: I'm pretty much always going to take the grappler.

655
00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:15,000
Speaker 4: I think i'd actually bet al made a live after

656
00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:17,720
Speaker 4: round one if Copple love Lance takedowns. But Almeida like

657
00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:21,120
Speaker 4: that way because he stays really calm. He doesn't waste that.

658
00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:23,200
Speaker 4: That's my favorite thing about him is he doesn't waste

659
00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:24,640
Speaker 4: any energy trying to get up.

660
00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:26,560
Speaker 5: He's very very calm.

661
00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:29,480
Speaker 4: He almost accepts positions knowing that like he's going to

662
00:30:29,520 --> 00:30:33,040
Speaker 4: find his chances to rally or you know, get up eventually,

663
00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:35,400
Speaker 4: or at least wait out the round and then get

664
00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:38,479
Speaker 4: back to striking. So if he gets taken down, you know,

665
00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:41,240
Speaker 4: copple of like dominates round one on the ground or

666
00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:43,880
Speaker 4: at least holds position for a long time and then

667
00:30:44,280 --> 00:30:47,280
Speaker 4: Almaida's plus two to fifty plus three hundred after getting

668
00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:48,640
Speaker 4: dominated on the ground a round one.

669
00:30:48,640 --> 00:30:49,800
Speaker 5: I would probably jump on it on.

670
00:30:49,880 --> 00:30:53,680
Speaker 4: Live because he he actually like just decides I'm not

671
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:55,400
Speaker 4: going to waste any energy. I'm gonna wait till we

672
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:57,040
Speaker 4: get this back on the feet and then use my

673
00:30:57,160 --> 00:30:58,280
Speaker 4: energy to defend takedown.

674
00:30:58,320 --> 00:30:59,480
Speaker 5: So he's an interesting fighter.

675
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:01,720
Speaker 4: He's very cauld and I think a lot of that

676
00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:04,239
Speaker 4: ones itself to fight IQ. And given the fact that

677
00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:06,920
Speaker 4: Koppolov has faded after grappling in the past, I think

678
00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:10,080
Speaker 4: that could ultimately be where the fight swings. So why

679
00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:11,560
Speaker 4: then O made I think it would be an interesting

680
00:31:11,600 --> 00:31:13,280
Speaker 4: angle as well.

681
00:31:13,080 --> 00:31:15,360
Speaker 6: The Live is actually think a really good point here

682
00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:18,240
Speaker 6: as well. Especially this is one where if you have

683
00:31:18,760 --> 00:31:20,680
Speaker 6: you know UFC fight pass and can watch what the

684
00:31:20,680 --> 00:31:22,680
Speaker 6: corners are saying in between and the body language of

685
00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:25,040
Speaker 6: hopy Loft. You might also need to speak Russian for

686
00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:26,880
Speaker 6: this to be many used to you, so you know

687
00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:30,880
Speaker 6: there's pretty small market here that I'm addressing. But are

688
00:31:30,920 --> 00:31:33,240
Speaker 6: they telling him like take him down and just destroy

689
00:31:33,360 --> 00:31:35,200
Speaker 6: him all I'm go for finish. I don't want to

690
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:36,840
Speaker 6: hear that from Hoppy Love, because that's going to give

691
00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:39,760
Speaker 6: I'll made of the advantage. The path for Hopylov is

692
00:31:39,800 --> 00:31:42,120
Speaker 6: to make it as boring of a fight as possible. Yes, dude,

693
00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:44,480
Speaker 6: just to not's not get stand up, hug him in there,

694
00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:46,480
Speaker 6: you know, kind of just hug him, throw a couple

695
00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:48,920
Speaker 6: strikes here and there, grind out some rounds. I don't

696
00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:50,400
Speaker 6: know that he's going to do that, and I'm not,

697
00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:53,200
Speaker 6: you know, gonna lay a big price on that. So

698
00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:55,840
Speaker 6: the plus money is a big part of this. But yeah,

699
00:31:55,880 --> 00:31:58,720
Speaker 6: you know, if if you see him looking tired or

700
00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:02,680
Speaker 6: overextending or making mistakes in the grappling, that's a good point.

701
00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:04,280
Speaker 6: If I can get better than plus two hundred on

702
00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:06,920
Speaker 6: the other side and kind of guarantee a property the way,

703
00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:07,880
Speaker 6: I'm certainly going to do that.

704
00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:09,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean he's going to grapple in round one,

705
00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:11,560
Speaker 4: if he's going to grapple at all, right, Like he's

706
00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:12,920
Speaker 4: not going to come out and strike for five minutes

707
00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:15,360
Speaker 4: and then probably mixing the grappling that seems more unlikely.

708
00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:16,560
Speaker 5: He's probably going to go for it right.

709
00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:19,400
Speaker 6: Away unless he gets caught, you know, at some point

710
00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:21,840
Speaker 6: then like, oh crap y, I can't strike him as

711
00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:24,480
Speaker 6: This is one where I wish I knew anyone in

712
00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:27,240
Speaker 6: their camp who could tell me, like, what's the plan here, guys,

713
00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:30,320
Speaker 6: because if you're going to do the Sean Strickland against Hey,

714
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:32,000
Speaker 6: we were like, no, I could strict with this guy.

715
00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:33,360
Speaker 5: It's going to go horribly.

716
00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:35,680
Speaker 6: If you have someone who's like telling you the way

717
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:38,520
Speaker 6: to win this, there's a pretty wide open, clear path

718
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:41,840
Speaker 6: to do it. I just don't necessarily know that he's

719
00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:42,440
Speaker 6: going to take it.

720
00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:44,520
Speaker 4: He's landed takedowns at the bass that it's not like

721
00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 4: it would be a first time thing for him.

722
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:45,880
Speaker 5: You know.

723
00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:49,160
Speaker 4: There's some fights where we speculate, like I think even

724
00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:51,240
Speaker 4: Bruno Silva when he faced Pajero, it was like, well,

725
00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:53,320
Speaker 4: Bruno Silva is a kickboxer, like is he really going

726
00:32:53,320 --> 00:32:53,920
Speaker 4: to try to grapple?

727
00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:54,400
Speaker 5: And he did.

728
00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:57,480
Speaker 4: He actually shot offensive takedowns even though he had never

729
00:32:57,560 --> 00:33:00,400
Speaker 4: really done that in the past. At least a law

730
00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:03,240
Speaker 4: has shown a willingness to shoot them and land them

731
00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:05,680
Speaker 4: against other opponents, so it is in there.

732
00:33:06,360 --> 00:33:07,840
Speaker 3: Healthy back and forth.

733
00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:10,680
Speaker 1: It's something about UFC that's different than other sports when

734
00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:12,200
Speaker 1: there's disagreement where it's.

735
00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:15,520
Speaker 5: Like, well it's so binary, it's good.

736
00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:18,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is some real bragging rights kind of stuff.

737
00:33:19,040 --> 00:33:21,360
Speaker 6: And then we both want half the segment trying to

738
00:33:21,720 --> 00:33:24,400
Speaker 6: define the other person's point instead offer.

739
00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:27,000
Speaker 4: When you're placing a bet, especially any any bet in

740
00:33:27,040 --> 00:33:31,440
Speaker 4: any sport, but especially with fights, you should be making

741
00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:33,440
Speaker 4: an argument for the other side, and if you can't

742
00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:36,520
Speaker 4: do it, make your bet. But if you can't, like

743
00:33:36,880 --> 00:33:39,480
Speaker 4: make a legitimate argument, or if you can make a

744
00:33:39,520 --> 00:33:41,880
Speaker 4: legitimate argument why somebody should bet the other side or

745
00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:46,400
Speaker 4: why you should consider betting the other side, reevaluate your bet.

746
00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:47,640
Speaker 5: I think I think you do need.

747
00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:49,520
Speaker 4: I think a lot of people, like you know, they

748
00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:52,400
Speaker 4: have their opinion about a way a fight might go,

749
00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:54,640
Speaker 4: or they have their opinion about a bet they want

750
00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:57,800
Speaker 4: to make, but they don't consider the alternative possibilities or

751
00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:00,800
Speaker 4: maybe ways that they could bet some things slightly better.

752
00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:03,360
Speaker 4: Maybe waiting, you know, after round one to bet an

753
00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:05,760
Speaker 4: underdog because you're going to get a better live rice

754
00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:08,480
Speaker 4: because they're going to lose that round one, So no

755
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:10,560
Speaker 4: matter what I think this war teaches you a lot,

756
00:34:10,600 --> 00:34:12,960
Speaker 4: But I think the number one thing teaches you is

757
00:34:13,000 --> 00:34:15,560
Speaker 4: that there's probably always a better way to find more

758
00:34:15,640 --> 00:34:20,319
Speaker 4: value betting the same expectation. And number two like, be

759
00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:23,359
Speaker 4: really sure about your opinions and make sure that you've

760
00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:27,160
Speaker 4: covered all possibilities and iterations for the way something could

761
00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:29,440
Speaker 4: play out, because there's a lot to think about and

762
00:34:29,480 --> 00:34:30,320
Speaker 4: there's a lot of minutia.

763
00:34:30,440 --> 00:34:31,799
Speaker 5: But yeah, it it.

764
00:34:33,440 --> 00:34:36,080
Speaker 4: I often find that, like when I'm when I'm heavy

765
00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:37,920
Speaker 4: on a side or when Billy's heavy on a side,

766
00:34:38,000 --> 00:34:40,400
Speaker 4: we end up talking about the other side and why

767
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:42,600
Speaker 4: we think it has a chance because I think we're

768
00:34:42,600 --> 00:34:46,040
Speaker 4: trying to like just run through the possibilities of everything

769
00:34:46,040 --> 00:34:48,400
Speaker 4: that could happen. So yeah, healthy back and forth. But

770
00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:50,960
Speaker 4: you know, fights, fights lead to that, and I think

771
00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:53,680
Speaker 4: they're interesting to break down. Not the best card, you know,

772
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:56,080
Speaker 4: top to bottom, not like the biggest names, but I

773
00:34:56,080 --> 00:34:57,680
Speaker 4: think a lot of interesting fights.

774
00:34:57,840 --> 00:34:59,799
Speaker 3: Some real deep thinking there for you on your way

775
00:34:59,800 --> 00:35:00,640
Speaker 3: out to the weekend.

776
00:35:00,840 --> 00:35:05,399
Speaker 1: Good stuff from Sean thanks to consider alrighty very good again.

777
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:09,440
Speaker 1: You can catch UFC three two in Newark, New Jersey

778
00:35:09,520 --> 00:35:13,120
Speaker 1: at the Prudential Center early prelims started at six thirty

779
00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:16,200
Speaker 1: Eastern ESPN Plus, then they'll slide over to E two

780
00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:22,000
Speaker 1: ESPN also ESPN plus eight o'clock for the other round.

781
00:35:21,800 --> 00:35:23,400
Speaker 3: Of prelims and the main card on pay per view

782
00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:24,799
Speaker 3: at ten o'clock. Very good.

783
00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:28,359
Speaker 1: There's your UFC three two betting preview for Shonzarella, Billy Ward,

784
00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:29,160
Speaker 1: Brendan Glasheen.

785
00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:31,640
Speaker 3: You can find more from these guys in the Action

786
00:35:31,800 --> 00:35:32,520
Speaker 3: Network App.

787
00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:37,480
Speaker 1: Also all of our UFC written video content available Action

788
00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:40,600
Speaker 1: Network App and the Action Network YouTube page.

789
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:43,560
Speaker 3: Best of luck this weekend, especially to these guys going

790
00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:45,360
Speaker 3: head to head. I'm curious to see how this goes.

791
00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:47,800
Speaker 1: We'll join you next time you're on The Action Network

792
00:35:47,800 --> 00:35:57,280
Speaker 1: podcast presented by bet MGM.

793
00:35:57,480 --> 00:36:00,960
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please get mbler responsibly.

794
00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:04,120
Speaker 4: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem.

795
00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:07,480
Speaker 4: Help is available twenty four seven at one eight hundred

796
00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:07,920
Speaker 4: Gambler