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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read enough?

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Speaker 2: No, we're running again, so smoothe so sweet, splendid sixteen

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Speaker 2: just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty

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Speaker 2: percent effort four thousand percent of the time. How shot

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Speaker 2: with that shop with mind? Good buddy, and that's why

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Speaker 2: you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements the most.

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Speaker 2: Dangerous amount of the planet. Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying the love.

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Speaker 2: It's left too the wide eyed drilled bibus. How old

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Speaker 2: earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 1: Hello, ey one, Welcome back to Wonderful the soccer Betting

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Speaker 1: podcast from the Action Network. My name is Michael Epa

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Speaker 1: and joining me for this episode is Anthony Debundo. BJ

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Speaker 1: Cunningham has the night off Together. Anthony and I are

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Speaker 1: going to tiptoe our way through a handicapping adventure breaking

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Speaker 1: down all ten Premier League matches upcoming this weekend. He'll

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Speaker 1: go through some bets across Europe he likes, and we'll

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Speaker 1: give out our three leg underdog part life. We didn't

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Speaker 1: let Bj off that easy. He still gave an underdog

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Speaker 1: and then our best bets for the upcoming Premier League slate.

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Speaker 1: So Anthony without further ado, actually with further ado, because

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Speaker 1: I got to read a read from our friends at

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Speaker 1: bet three six five. Wonder Goal is presented by bet

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Speaker 1: three sixty five, and bet three six five doesn't do ordinary.

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Speaker 1: It believes every sport should be epic, every tournament, every game,

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Speaker 1: every point, every play, from the moments that are legendary

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Speaker 1: to the ones that fly under the radar. See for

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Speaker 1: yourself when you sign up today with the promo code

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Speaker 1: action and you'll get three hundred and sixty five dollars

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Speaker 1: and bonus bets when you bet just one dollar. Whatever

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Speaker 1: the sport, whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. If bet

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Speaker 1: three six five, you must each twenty one, we're older,

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Speaker 1: and you must be present in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, New Jersey,

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Speaker 1: Ohio or Virginia. And if you or someone you know

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Speaker 1: has a gambling problem and wants how please call one

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Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler in Colorado, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio, and

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Speaker 1: Virginia or what eight hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms

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Speaker 1: and conditions apply. Okay, Anthony, without further ado, It's time

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Speaker 1: to dive into some Premier League action. Coming our way

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Speaker 1: this weekend. Full disclosure, We are recording this as we

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Speaker 1: always do on Wednesday, so there's still a couple Premier

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Speaker 1: League matches to be played on Thursday. We'll touch on

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Speaker 1: all of that when we get there. But one Premier

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Speaker 1: League match that was played was aston Villa's victory over

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Speaker 1: Man City and now they host Arsenal. Fun little part

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Speaker 1: of the schedule here for Unai Emory's impressive bunch there

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Speaker 1: plus two forty at home, Arsenal's traveling at plus one

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Speaker 1: o five, the draw is plus two sixty. You and

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Speaker 1: Bjay got personal with me when I tried to face

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Speaker 1: Arsenal with Luton Town and it almost worked out for me,

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Speaker 1: but it didn't. And now Arsenal just has made a

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Speaker 1: habit of scoring equalizers and winners in stoppage time after

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Speaker 1: the ninetieth minute, and it feels very breaking bad. He

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Speaker 1: can't just keep getting away with this. But they do

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Speaker 1: keep getting away with it. Will they do it again?

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Speaker 2: I mean, I'm certainly not betting Arsenal here. I think,

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Speaker 2: you know, at a certain point we need to talk

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Speaker 2: about the game we just watched today and did say

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Speaker 2: more about aston Villa or did it say more about

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Speaker 2: Manchester City because I think that's the biggest takeaway from

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Speaker 2: this match, because if you go through some of the stats,

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Speaker 2: right the total XG was two point two two point

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Speaker 2: eight six. City took two shots. That's only happened twice

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Speaker 2: in the last five years where City have been held

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Speaker 2: under five total shots. The other match was this year

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Speaker 2: against Arsenal on the road again shorthanded, no Rodriy, so

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Speaker 2: they you know, we'll talk more about City when we

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Speaker 2: get to Luton, but like in terms of this match,

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Speaker 2: you have to upgrade Villa. It was the most dominant

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Speaker 2: performance anybody's had against City pretty much as long as

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Speaker 2: I can remember, in a meaningful match where a team

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Speaker 2: just completely destroyed them, and it goes beyond just that.

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Speaker 2: You know the you know the x G and you

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Speaker 2: look under the hood. Ten plus pass sequences a stat

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Speaker 2: that City dominates against everybody they play. City had twenty,

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Speaker 2: Villa had seventeen. So they were able to play through pressure,

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Speaker 2: They were able to overcome the City who played incredibly

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Speaker 2: narrow without go Doku and Grealish to the point where

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Speaker 2: it was just a total struggle ball and they had

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Speaker 2: no way through and it never really looked like City

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Speaker 2: was going to score, so you know, credit to Villa,

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Speaker 2: you have to upgrade them. I didn't really take a

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Speaker 2: ton away from the Arsenal match against Luton, to be

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Speaker 2: honest with you, Like, yes, Rya was terrible. You could

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Speaker 2: say that's a concern. You know, Arsenal's got this goal

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Speaker 2: keeper thing going on where they don't really know who

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Speaker 2: the goalie is. The best goalie. They play Ramsdale, he

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Speaker 2: tries to give away goals against Brentford, they play Raya,

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Speaker 2: he does giveaway goals. Against Luton. Luton had you know,

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Speaker 2: three box shots and the first three shots all went in.

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Speaker 2: That's not something that's going to continue to happen against

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Speaker 2: Arsenal's defense. I did think Newton did a really nice

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Speaker 2: job disrupting build up, but that's not really what Villa's

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Speaker 2: gonna do Anyway. Villa doesn't really press a ton, so

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Speaker 2: they're gonna give Arsenal a chance to get their sequences in.

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Speaker 2: The thing for me is like, can Villa do that

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Speaker 2: again against Arsenal's press, which has been better. Can they

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Speaker 2: get those sequences? Can they get their ball progression? Villa

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Speaker 2: at home? You know, we said another thing like, well,

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Speaker 2: Villa at home they haven't really played anybody, but when

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Speaker 2: they've been at home, they've been dominant this season. Now

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Speaker 2: they have a real opponent and they've completely destroyed them.

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Speaker 2: Villa at home this year plus one point four to

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Speaker 2: six x G difference per ninety Villa away minus point

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Speaker 2: three to eight. So it's pretty dramatic. It would be

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Speaker 2: villain or nothing for me here. I think if you

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Speaker 2: do like them, you know, maybe look towards the money

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Speaker 2: line because it is high variance with the style that

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Speaker 2: they're playing right now. But I certainly I'm gonna have

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Speaker 2: to build the courage to beat Villa though, because of

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Speaker 2: my positions and how I've been relative on the market

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Speaker 2: with them most of the season so far. So you know,

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Speaker 2: it should be a fun one.

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Speaker 1: That is a Saturday game. Let's jump ahead to Sunday

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Speaker 1: for the other headliner out of Tottenham, Tottenham hosting Newcastle

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Speaker 1: Spurs as a home favorite on the three way line

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Speaker 1: plus one twenty five Newcastle plus one seventy five the

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Speaker 1: draw here. The draw here is plus two eighty. It's

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Speaker 1: a little tricky because both teams are playing on Thursday,

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Speaker 1: so we gotta pump the brakes here a bit. Nonetheless,

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Speaker 1: I like Newcastle here, even on the road, or maybe

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Speaker 1: they don't do their their best work. But with Tottenham's

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Speaker 1: vulnerabilities on defense, Newcastle's ability to punish you quickly get

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Speaker 1: the ball, put it forward and h this does feel

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Speaker 1: a little similar to what we were talking about with

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Speaker 1: I've ever did and Newcastle with this thing should could

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Speaker 1: be end up being a ping pong match. And I

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Speaker 1: would trust Newcastle's defense, even with some of the injuries,

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Speaker 1: to hold better. They're more robust, be a more robust

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Speaker 1: unit then compared to Tottenham. So yeah, I'm sorry to

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Speaker 1: say it, Anthony, but I'm going to be going against

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Speaker 1: your Spurs here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I probably will be too. Like you said, you know,

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Speaker 2: we don't know what Newcastle Everton will look like. We

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Speaker 2: don't know what Spurs west Ham will look like. I

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Speaker 2: think we learned more from Spurs west Ham in terms of,

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Speaker 2: like what do Tottenham look like with Romero back in

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Speaker 2: the lineup and with chardless and potentially back in the

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Speaker 2: starting eleven. They have taken money ahead of this west

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Speaker 2: Ham match on Thursday, which by the time you listen

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Speaker 2: to this you probably will have already happened. So I

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Speaker 2: do think Spurs are gonna win at home, maybe they

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Speaker 2: get a little bit of market love off that win,

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Speaker 2: and I can come back on Newcastle. I generally agree to.

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Speaker 2: I think when you look at this matchup, the one

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Speaker 2: thing you're gonna hear is like, yes, Tottenham want to

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Speaker 2: play out Newcastle will press them, They will be aggressive

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Speaker 2: and look to create those high turnovers. Newcastle by every

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Speaker 2: metric are the better team.

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 2: I think one interesting thing, you know, Dorman had some

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Speaker 2: success with this in the Champions League. When Newcastle has

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Speaker 2: the ball, can Tottenham's press off the ball create those

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Speaker 2: high turnovers and expose some of Newcastle's maybe frailties in

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Speaker 2: possession where they're not as consistent. And then you know

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Speaker 2: Tottenham does to teams, does to Newcastle what Newcastle does

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Speaker 2: to so many different teams, and Tottenham is the one

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Speaker 2: who's able to break at pace at this back line

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Speaker 2: and then maybe expose this defense a little bit more

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Speaker 2: than we've seen some of the bigger sides do it,

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Speaker 2: where Arsenal and City have kind of grinded the match

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Speaker 2: to a halt. When teams have tried to play a

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Speaker 2: more for netic style, they have been able to create

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Speaker 2: some chances against this Newcastle defense. So you know, another

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Speaker 2: game where you know, you look at the market and

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Speaker 2: we see how Tottenham looks on Thursday and we can

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Speaker 2: kind of draw conclusions off of that. I don't really

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Speaker 2: have a strong opinion on this game. I do lean

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Speaker 2: toward Newcastle just based solely off the number because I

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Speaker 2: am lower than the market on Spurs right now. But

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Speaker 2: again I'm willing to say that, like Tottenham is a

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Speaker 2: very influx team because of how the players are coming

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Speaker 2: in and out, and they could look really good tomorrow

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Speaker 2: and kind of change my belief on that as far

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Speaker 2: as the total goes here, Like I was like, oh,

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Speaker 2: you know, maybe the you know, the market really likes

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Speaker 2: these Newcastle unders, maybe it'll be like a flat three.

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Speaker 2: But no, it's like over three point twenty five, and

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Speaker 2: I kind of think that's right. I do have the

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Speaker 2: stat on it now, so heading into this match week,

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna wait till after the match week to get

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Speaker 2: the data. Overs in the prem are eighty and sixty

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Speaker 2: coming in and we did have a majority of the

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Speaker 2: games go over again today, so they continue to just

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Speaker 2: absolutely roll, going over by point three to five goals

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Speaker 2: per ninety and that's you know, with the market slowly

189
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Speaker 2: adjusting upward. We talked about that on the show, and

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Speaker 2: they're still going over. The last month has actually been

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Speaker 2: even more pronounced than the early season trends. So it's

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Speaker 2: kind of remarkable the prem changing the way it has

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Speaker 2: this year and the market not being able to catch

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Speaker 2: up eight percent ROI if you blindly bet every prem

195
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Speaker 2: over this year. So and I think Tottenham and Newcastle

196
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Speaker 2: are a perfect example of that. With Newcastle, you know,

197
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Speaker 2: even when the market steams against their attack and says,

198
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Speaker 2: well they can't possibly keep doing this, like look at

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Speaker 2: their box entries, look at their X threat, it's not

200
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Speaker 2: that good, the market steams under and then the game

201
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Speaker 2: flies over every single time. So this told us three

202
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Speaker 2: point twenty five definitely too high to play the over

203
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Speaker 2: for me, but uh, not going to play the under either.

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Speaker 1: Should we go nil nil?

205
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Speaker 2: What for this game?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 2: I don't know that Tottenham play in nil neil all year,

208
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Speaker 2: to be honest. It must they and the only time

209
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Speaker 2: they play in nil nel is if they get like

210
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Speaker 2: an extreme low block team who doesn't even really try

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Speaker 2: to attack them like they The Palace game could have

212
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Speaker 2: been in nil nil if if the own goal doesn't

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Speaker 2: go in right like and change the game. Those are

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Speaker 2: the only like I don't really see them playing a

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Speaker 2: nil nil out with any of these nobody plays. Well,

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Speaker 2: that's also true, but I mean like Arsenal City should

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Speaker 2: have been An'll know Arsenal Newcastle could have been a

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Speaker 2: new on that one city Newcastle like maybe.

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Speaker 1: So that's sixteen to one. It should be higher than that,

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Speaker 1: but that's about as high as you'll get Neil Neil

221
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Speaker 1: and the.

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Speaker 2: Premier and first you're getting their attack some of their

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Speaker 2: attacking guys back, So like a Johnson Kouloseewski for Charleston's son,

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Speaker 2: all of a sudden doesn't look too bad for them,

225
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Speaker 2: even their shows and rocks.

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Speaker 1: Uh, it's it's always something I like to just at

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Speaker 1: least pitch backwards from these big games, is just to

228
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Speaker 1: at least just take a peek at it, because it's

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Speaker 1: the thing that nobody's gonna bet. Palace in Liverpool Kristin

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Speaker 1: Ball Palace at home there plus four twenty five Liverpool

231
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Speaker 1: traveling as an odds on favorite minus one sixty seven

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Speaker 1: the draw here three to one. If you believe in

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Speaker 1: bogie teams. Palaces has been that for Liverpool in its past.

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Speaker 1: We all remember Krystin Bowl was a lot of fun

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Speaker 1: for everybody, But Denny, I guess what would you call

236
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Speaker 1: like it just a solid day at the office for

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Speaker 1: for Liverpool kind of win against Sheffield United, get the

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Speaker 1: goal from Virgil and then the late the late one

239
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Speaker 1: against Chris Wilder's blades to make it too nail. So

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Speaker 1: it looks, you know, just kind of whole home there,

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Speaker 1: I will say, the way this one sets up with

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Speaker 1: Palace at home and just sitting deep and looking to

243
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Speaker 1: the to make this an absolute chore for Liverpool, It's

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Speaker 1: never a bad idea, never, never a bad idea to

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Speaker 1: back Palace in this matchup.

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Speaker 2: No, yeah, I agree. I think Liverpool did show some

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Speaker 2: defensive frailty right like the to give up a big

248
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Speaker 2: chance pretty early on in that match. The first like

249
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Speaker 2: big chance of the game actually went to Sheffield, which

250
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Speaker 2: I thought was a little bit concerning for them. H

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Speaker 2: you know, Sheffield's historically bad, so you know, am I

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Speaker 2: gonna go be worried about that? But no, I do

253
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Speaker 2: think Liverpool are clearly upgraded with Ibraheima canate in the

254
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Speaker 2: in the fold. He's been in and out of the

255
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Speaker 2: lineup with injury. He is huge involved progression for them

256
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Speaker 2: and was big today. I think that this lining is

257
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Speaker 2: a little bit inflated. You know, we look at some

258
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Speaker 2: of the teams that have gone to Palace this year

259
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Speaker 2: and just kind of like run down the list. Arsenal

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Speaker 2: closed minus one fifteen at Palace. I really thought like

261
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Speaker 2: that was a little short. But Liverpool laying over a

262
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Speaker 2: goal here at some shops, so this is getting up

263
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Speaker 2: to minus one ninety at some books they upgraded them

264
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Speaker 2: off of today, like Liverpool Sawid getting subbed off in

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Speaker 2: the sixty seventh minute, looked exhausted and they did look

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Speaker 2: a little leggy to me. They still conceded point eight xg,

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Speaker 2: which you know against most teams is fine, but like Sheffield,

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Speaker 2: as bad as they've been, don't normally get to point

269
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Speaker 2: ad xg unless there's a penalty involved in the game.

270
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Speaker 2: That's the only time that they really get to over

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Speaker 2: one consistently or like a red card against the other team.

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Speaker 2: So I think Liverpool still have the vulnerable defense. And

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Speaker 2: you know you saw it with with Fulham when I

274
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Speaker 2: laid Liverpool and Fulham owned me again. But the kellor

275
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Speaker 2: her downgrade is real also Pallas, like Michael Olise does

276
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Speaker 2: make a difference and he's not as good as Asa

277
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Speaker 2: for me, but like he uh did a ton of

278
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Speaker 2: ball progression in the west Ham match and was lively there.

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Speaker 2: I didn't I did not have eyes on Palace Bourne

280
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Speaker 2: myth today. It did not make the cut, but I

281
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Speaker 2: you know, it wasn't a great performance for them. But again,

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Speaker 2: I think this Boorneth team is quickly trending up and

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Speaker 2: we're going to talk about them shortly. But I think

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Speaker 2: in terms of like matchup and spot it's pretty tricky

285
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Speaker 2: for Liverpool just given how much the fixtures are piling

286
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Speaker 2: up and how tired their top guys look. To me,

287
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Speaker 2: so I'm gonna take Palace plus one numbers play for me.

288
00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:54,040
Speaker 2: I have Liverpool around minus one fifty so minus you

289
00:14:54,080 --> 00:14:56,880
Speaker 2: know one ninety ish. It's a little too high to

290
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Speaker 2: win this one. And they did lose Mattop too, so

291
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Speaker 2: that could He's done for the year now, so that

292
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Speaker 2: could matter.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I likely be on the Palace money line of course,

294
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Speaker 1: spot of one of the spots of the year that

295
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Speaker 1: I just always been right. Brighton and Burnley Seagulls minus

296
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Speaker 1: one eight eight coming off the winning against Brentford. Burnley

297
00:15:17,520 --> 00:15:20,240
Speaker 1: losing to Wolves or plus four fifty for this one

298
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Speaker 1: and a draw here would pay out plus three point fifty.

299
00:15:23,920 --> 00:15:26,560
Speaker 1: Got nothing here. I don't think that there's anything to

300
00:15:26,680 --> 00:15:30,400
Speaker 1: really get into it. You could maybe make a nice

301
00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:35,440
Speaker 1: avenue for a Brighton route and chase that, but he

302
00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:37,280
Speaker 1: always always okay to pass.

303
00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:39,200
Speaker 2: So yeah, I don't think Burnley has I don't think

304
00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:42,000
Speaker 2: Burnley has like the transition talent to really expose this

305
00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:45,200
Speaker 2: Brighton team. And I don't really know if Burnley's approach

306
00:15:45,280 --> 00:15:48,200
Speaker 2: works in this spot. At Brighton, it feels like they're

307
00:15:48,200 --> 00:15:51,360
Speaker 2: walking into a tough spot. They did play well against Wolves,

308
00:15:51,640 --> 00:15:53,720
Speaker 2: they were the better team for majority of that match.

309
00:15:54,120 --> 00:15:57,560
Speaker 2: Sanda Berga makes like a really dumb touch facing his

310
00:15:57,560 --> 00:15:59,240
Speaker 2: own goal and they give up a goal to Chan,

311
00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:04,480
Speaker 2: but like the XG, the whole match like felt like

312
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Speaker 2: a coin flip. So tough beat for Burnley backers. I

313
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Speaker 2: don't really still want to pet this team though, and

314
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Speaker 2: I think that they are properly priced here with Brighton

315
00:16:15,640 --> 00:16:18,280
Speaker 2: now being undefeated. When I bet against them the season

316
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Speaker 2: after a deserved win against Brentford, I mean Brentford gets

317
00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:26,800
Speaker 2: the pen early, Brighton controls most of the match. Branford

318
00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:28,520
Speaker 2: matches are always hard though, because they do get so

319
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Speaker 2: game state dependent. But overall, yeah, it was a good

320
00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:33,920
Speaker 2: good spot for them.

321
00:16:34,080 --> 00:16:37,720
Speaker 1: Scott mcdonminy your odds on favorite for the ballen door

322
00:16:38,560 --> 00:16:44,200
Speaker 1: after United next right a one eight two hosting Bourne

323
00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:48,680
Speaker 1: with Mcdommaney gets the another brace. I feel like when

324
00:16:48,760 --> 00:16:50,760
Speaker 1: if he scores one, he's always going to score another.

325
00:16:51,280 --> 00:16:55,600
Speaker 1: He only scores scores in twos to lead United to

326
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Speaker 1: win over Chelsea. We were on that one last week

327
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Speaker 1: or over the midwek should say now they they get

328
00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:06,240
Speaker 1: to host not of course yeah, I mean yeah, you

329
00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:08,240
Speaker 1: haven't won a bet all season. We're trying to get you.

330
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Speaker 1: We're trying to get you your first win on the campaign.

331
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Speaker 2: Actually a DFB pocal only place I win bets now,

332
00:17:14,200 --> 00:17:14,600
Speaker 2: good day.

333
00:17:14,520 --> 00:17:18,399
Speaker 1: There, uh Bourne. Myth is four to one traveling to

334
00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:22,800
Speaker 1: Old Trafford and the draw here is plus three thirty three.

335
00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:26,560
Speaker 1: I loved that Manchester United spot against Chelsea and I

336
00:17:26,600 --> 00:17:31,919
Speaker 1: absolutely hate this one against Bournemuth Bayern Munich on the

337
00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:36,000
Speaker 1: other side of the horizon in uh the Champions League

338
00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:40,920
Speaker 1: on Tuesday Wednesday. Whatever it is this Bourne, Myuth team

339
00:17:42,280 --> 00:17:45,719
Speaker 1: improving they got healthy, kind of got out of a

340
00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:48,840
Speaker 1: tough part of their schedules. As you know, you we

341
00:17:48,880 --> 00:17:50,720
Speaker 1: tried to tell you about this all season that this

342
00:17:50,760 --> 00:17:51,720
Speaker 1: team was going to get better.

343
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Speaker 2: They're so good man, they're gonna finish there.

344
00:17:55,560 --> 00:18:00,160
Speaker 1: They're yeah, they're they're they're onto something here. They're danger

345
00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:07,920
Speaker 1: in the spot, absolutely dangerous against uh, A United defense

346
00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:11,680
Speaker 1: that nobody is going to trust. The one thing like that,

347
00:18:12,359 --> 00:18:14,960
Speaker 1: we know that Bournemouth can get absolutely pasted. It's happened

348
00:18:16,119 --> 00:18:23,159
Speaker 1: already the season on a couple of occasions Everdon Arsenal City,

349
00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:26,199
Speaker 1: I mean Liverpool, they went up but and then it

350
00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:28,040
Speaker 1: ended up getting lopsided. So I don't know what you

351
00:18:28,080 --> 00:18:29,960
Speaker 1: want to if you want to even get there. But

352
00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:35,119
Speaker 1: they've also had some mesmerizing performances of late, which is

353
00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:38,840
Speaker 1: I think what holds more water than the early season stuff.

354
00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:41,560
Speaker 1: Considering where this team is going like that and and

355
00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:43,879
Speaker 1: that they've got healthier, we're starting to feel like this

356
00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:47,560
Speaker 1: is the real version of Bournemouth that went over Newcastle.

357
00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:50,480
Speaker 1: If you want to nippick and say it was a

358
00:18:50,480 --> 00:18:54,520
Speaker 1: deplete in Newcastle, was still Newcastle. Uh was one sided.

359
00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:59,680
Speaker 1: They beat the brakes off of Sheffield United drew with Villa,

360
00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:02,520
Speaker 1: the best team in the Premier League, and that was

361
00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:04,440
Speaker 1: a little unlucky that they didn't get to win that

362
00:19:04,520 --> 00:19:07,560
Speaker 1: think that too too flatters Villa. And then a really

363
00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:12,000
Speaker 1: professional two nil against Crystal Palace. So just a really

364
00:19:12,080 --> 00:19:15,280
Speaker 1: dangerous team and a team that can punch up and

365
00:19:15,320 --> 00:19:17,919
Speaker 1: a team that is confident in the system and the

366
00:19:18,040 --> 00:19:21,960
Speaker 1: manager has been committed to the bit from the drop

367
00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:25,760
Speaker 1: of the puck. So yeah, this is a live underdog.

368
00:19:25,840 --> 00:19:27,359
Speaker 1: This is this is exactly the time you want to

369
00:19:27,359 --> 00:19:29,679
Speaker 1: bet against Manchester United too, right, Like this is it

370
00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:31,919
Speaker 1: when everyone starts to take that deep side of you know,

371
00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:34,679
Speaker 1: that deep breath, like the storm is over. No it's not.

372
00:19:35,200 --> 00:19:37,280
Speaker 1: It's coming to you this weekend.

373
00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:40,280
Speaker 2: There are only three points behind City. I know, it's

374
00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:44,600
Speaker 2: kind of wild. Here's the thing. I looked at this

375
00:19:44,680 --> 00:19:47,280
Speaker 2: line two days ago when we recorded Sunday and I

376
00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:51,480
Speaker 2: was like, well minus one's fifty five sixty. You know,

377
00:19:51,520 --> 00:19:53,240
Speaker 2: it's like not a full it's not a full goal.

378
00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:56,479
Speaker 2: I don't really want a bet born myth. But now

379
00:19:56,520 --> 00:19:58,639
Speaker 2: I get the full goal because because United went and

380
00:19:58,640 --> 00:20:00,760
Speaker 2: had their best game of the season. Keep in mind,

381
00:20:01,200 --> 00:20:04,600
Speaker 2: their best game of the season still allowed two expected

382
00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:09,960
Speaker 2: goals to Chelsea, ten penalty box shots, a ton of

383
00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:13,840
Speaker 2: dangerous attacking moments for Chelsea. United just had way more.

384
00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:17,480
Speaker 2: And look, you know we talked about how insane these

385
00:20:17,480 --> 00:20:21,239
Speaker 2: two matches were today between Villa just pasting City and

386
00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:26,000
Speaker 2: United pasting Chelsea. Just why we love this, you know,

387
00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:29,720
Speaker 2: this league. It's amazing because you know we go on

388
00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:32,480
Speaker 2: Sunday and bj gave out Villa and United. You know,

389
00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:34,200
Speaker 2: he's much sharper than I am. I didn't bet either

390
00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:37,600
Speaker 2: because I'm a coward. And now it's like, okay, who

391
00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:39,159
Speaker 2: does it say more about? I thought it said more

392
00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:43,000
Speaker 2: about Chelsea that the market's probably like they're still not

393
00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:45,680
Speaker 2: consistent enough to warrant the market prices they're getting, even

394
00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:49,800
Speaker 2: if they are improved. I also thought that like United

395
00:20:49,840 --> 00:20:52,520
Speaker 2: got one of those Bruno games. Bruno is a world

396
00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:56,040
Speaker 2: class player and when he you know, he's been down

397
00:20:56,040 --> 00:20:57,639
Speaker 2: a little bit this year, but he still has it

398
00:20:57,680 --> 00:20:59,080
Speaker 2: in his bag. He's gonna play a lot of high

399
00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:01,560
Speaker 2: risk passes. He's going to be very aggressive and build

400
00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:03,920
Speaker 2: up and in ball progression and trying to get the

401
00:21:03,920 --> 00:21:05,919
Speaker 2: ball in the box and when it comes off for

402
00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:08,080
Speaker 2: a day, he looks like the best player in the

403
00:21:08,119 --> 00:21:11,200
Speaker 2: world and today you know, expected threat for him alone

404
00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:14,760
Speaker 2: was point eight. That's insanity in terms of getting the

405
00:21:14,760 --> 00:21:16,800
Speaker 2: ball forward quickly into the penalty area and being a

406
00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:18,480
Speaker 2: major factor. And then of course you know, I know

407
00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:21,800
Speaker 2: he missed the pen but the XG numbers for United

408
00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:25,840
Speaker 2: were amazing. It comes without Marcus Rashford, which makes it interesting.

409
00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:30,360
Speaker 2: Does Rashford start because Garnacho was really impressive today Anthony

410
00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:32,760
Speaker 2: was not. Do they play Garnacho and Rashford. There's all

411
00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:34,920
Speaker 2: kinds of different things they can do here either way.

412
00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:37,960
Speaker 2: I think Bournemouth is absolutely improving and I think you

413
00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:40,919
Speaker 2: could tell me right now who is the market like

414
00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:42,720
Speaker 2: in terms of trend lines over the course of a

415
00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:45,119
Speaker 2: whole season. Who is the market still not caught up

416
00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:47,200
Speaker 2: to yet. It's been the improvement in Bournemouth in the

417
00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:49,399
Speaker 2: last three weeks to a month where they're getting all

418
00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:52,000
Speaker 2: these wins. They're out playing Palace at Palace. That's a

419
00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:54,680
Speaker 2: good result. I mean they were pretty dominant in that game.

420
00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:58,120
Speaker 2: That's not nothing. Going away to a mid table team

421
00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:01,159
Speaker 2: and beating them pretty comfortably. Not something Bournemouth was doing

422
00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:03,040
Speaker 2: early in the Eroyal era. And now they're doing it.

423
00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:06,000
Speaker 2: So the consistency in the form is really improving. I'm

424
00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:08,600
Speaker 2: believing in it. And United, you know, it felt more

425
00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:10,480
Speaker 2: like a blit. I mean, we watched the same United

426
00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:13,399
Speaker 2: team get absolutely annihilated at Newcastle on Sunday. Do we

427
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:15,000
Speaker 2: really think that their Saturday? Do we really think that

428
00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:18,920
Speaker 2: much changed between then and now? I don't so. I think, yeah,

429
00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:22,080
Speaker 2: Bournemouth plus one for me, Bournemouth and Palace plus one

430
00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:25,640
Speaker 2: my first two weekend bets in the prem.

431
00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:28,359
Speaker 1: It just begs to be repeated before we move on

432
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:32,439
Speaker 1: to Sheffield United and Brentford. Is this United team can

433
00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:35,200
Speaker 1: lose to anybody. They already shout hey.

434
00:22:35,040 --> 00:22:38,920
Speaker 2: They got you know, another good win. Fine, we put

435
00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:40,040
Speaker 2: it in the sample and I.

436
00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:42,240
Speaker 1: Think that's probably that she can beat anybody.

437
00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:44,240
Speaker 2: They only lost one, not at Newcastle. You look at

438
00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:45,920
Speaker 2: the final score, you're like, yeah, you know, they were competitive.

439
00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:48,879
Speaker 2: You can downgrade as much as you may have downgrade

440
00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:50,840
Speaker 2: them on Sunday, you can upgrade them right back up.

441
00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:52,800
Speaker 2: It still gets us to like the same point we've

442
00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:54,840
Speaker 2: been on this United team, which is that they can't defend.

443
00:22:55,520 --> 00:22:58,959
Speaker 2: They cannot defend, so maybe over you know, it's the

444
00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:02,679
Speaker 2: first half both teams to score again. But it's just

445
00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:05,960
Speaker 2: like they just don't event so when they play competent

446
00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:08,080
Speaker 2: attacking teams, it's it's a problem.

447
00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:13,600
Speaker 1: Would you consider Sheffield United a competent attacking team? Five

448
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:18,480
Speaker 1: this weekend at home hosting Brentford. Chris Wilders back baby

449
00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 1: back in the dugout at Broma Lane. Good to have

450
00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:27,879
Speaker 1: him back the overlapping center backs. What a genius he was.

451
00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:32,000
Speaker 1: Brentford minus one fifty and the draw is three to one.

452
00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:33,560
Speaker 1: I actually think the draw is a good bet here.

453
00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:38,280
Speaker 1: I'd expect that United, Sheffield United is just going to

454
00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:43,000
Speaker 1: park it and try to just stabilize itself and get itself.

455
00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:46,719
Speaker 2: I mean, they're at home Brentford away. But we just

456
00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:49,240
Speaker 2: saw like last week Brentford was minus two hundred and

457
00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:51,639
Speaker 2: we're like, wow, Brentford is a favorite at home against

458
00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:54,040
Speaker 2: the worst team. But the gap just is that big

459
00:23:54,080 --> 00:23:56,679
Speaker 2: this year between these bad teams and these good teams

460
00:23:57,119 --> 00:24:00,000
Speaker 2: or mid table like the newly promoted teams Lowton, Sheffield

461
00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:03,879
Speaker 2: Burnley have had no success Like brent Burnley went to

462
00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:06,760
Speaker 2: Brentford and got smoked. Newton went to Brentford and got smoked.

463
00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:08,880
Speaker 2: The thing we said about Brentford forever was like, well,

464
00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:11,600
Speaker 2: when Brentford's a favorite, they're always bottom five and shots

465
00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:13,919
Speaker 2: per ninety, they don't get a ton of volume. They

466
00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:15,760
Speaker 2: need one or two big chances to make it work,

467
00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:17,640
Speaker 2: and if they don't get them, then they're they're vulnerable.

468
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:19,600
Speaker 2: And it works great as a dog because they're not

469
00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:21,560
Speaker 2: going to have the ball, but winning their favorite they struggle.

470
00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:23,600
Speaker 2: They have not had that problem this year. I mean,

471
00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:25,720
Speaker 2: first of all, they're up to like top half of

472
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:28,160
Speaker 2: the league in shots per ninety. They're still top half

473
00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:31,840
Speaker 2: in shot quality. They're big chance numbers are actually down,

474
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:34,199
Speaker 2: so that actually, you know, you could look at it

475
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:35,760
Speaker 2: and say, well, that means we're not getting as many

476
00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:38,879
Speaker 2: big chances, but they're also getting average chances at a

477
00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:41,400
Speaker 2: much higher rate, which I think is more sustainable. So

478
00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:44,440
Speaker 2: I think Brentford's been a just fine as a favorite.

479
00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:46,960
Speaker 2: And when they've played the shit teams, they've beat the

480
00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:50,440
Speaker 2: shit teams. So ye, like do they not win here?

481
00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:54,400
Speaker 1: But again like the field pencil and paper kind of thing,

482
00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:56,760
Speaker 1: the spot with the new manager, I get it, Yeah,

483
00:24:56,800 --> 00:25:02,199
Speaker 1: I get it, yep, don't well, I mean they there

484
00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:04,840
Speaker 1: was some market movement against Brentford today they like there

485
00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 1: was some minus one thirty five's out there, one thirty

486
00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:09,640
Speaker 1: like hope, I hope it keeps getting bet down because I'll.

487
00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:13,520
Speaker 2: Lay one ten, one twenty happily with the be's here.

488
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:16,560
Speaker 2: I don't know that it will get that low, but

489
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:19,800
Speaker 2: that's my belief. Wolf it has changed a little bit.

490
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:22,000
Speaker 2: I wrote about it in my Bright and Brentford preview,

491
00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:24,399
Speaker 2: kind of like how their Bedford has changed defensively a

492
00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:26,679
Speaker 2: little bit and in an attack that they're you know,

493
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:30,200
Speaker 2: maybe playing a more sustainable style and more aggressive against

494
00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:30,960
Speaker 2: these bad teams.

495
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:33,160
Speaker 1: Be sure to go check that out. And then we'll

496
00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:38,160
Speaker 1: also check out Wolves and Forest here Wolverhampton once again

497
00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:41,800
Speaker 1: and it's on favorite at home again the tricky Trees.

498
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:46,159
Speaker 1: Should we just replay what we said about Wolves versus

499
00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:47,480
Speaker 1: h versus Burnley.

500
00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:50,600
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, I think interest saying that the market

501
00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:53,720
Speaker 2: thinks worst than Burnley are even teams based on this number?

502
00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:57,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that's better, but I would say too

503
00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:04,119
Speaker 1: got absolutely dominant. It's Steve Cooper and had his apologize.

504
00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:06,760
Speaker 1: Yeah that was I had so many texts, actually I

505
00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:11,080
Speaker 1: didn't know. Yeah, yeah, he him and the whole team.

506
00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:16,159
Speaker 1: They went over to the awaye stand and apologize to

507
00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:19,679
Speaker 1: the traveling supporters and just speaks volumes of the kind

508
00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:20,760
Speaker 1: of guy that Steve Cooper is.

509
00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:23,800
Speaker 2: I agree, great, always right always.

510
00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:26,159
Speaker 1: I should have said get right spots. But if you

511
00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:29,560
Speaker 1: believe in in like motivational or bounce back spots, you

512
00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 1: probably have this one circled as a force. Have to

513
00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:38,680
Speaker 1: be better. Like they just got embarrassed by Fulham and wolves,

514
00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:44,880
Speaker 1: like we said, was it for seventy two hours ago?

515
00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:49,480
Speaker 1: Like you're you're probably not going to be interested in

516
00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:53,119
Speaker 1: wolves in the spot if you've been in the weeds betting.

517
00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:57,880
Speaker 1: Uh this team, Like we love wolves when they're punching up,

518
00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:01,520
Speaker 1: not when they're punching down like this, And like I

519
00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:05,000
Speaker 1: actually like Forest again. Whatever, just keep going. I'll go

520
00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 1: back to them. I'll take my medicine if it happens again.

521
00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:10,520
Speaker 1: It happens again. But I just this is the numbers

522
00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:14,240
Speaker 1: too good to go against a Wolverhampton team that better

523
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:19,080
Speaker 1: than expected. But not this is good and I know

524
00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:23,160
Speaker 1: all that much credit also from what we just saw

525
00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:23,840
Speaker 1: against Burnley.

526
00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:28,800
Speaker 2: I'll say this. I am Forrest has now played twenty

527
00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 2: six away matches since they rejoined the Premier League. They

528
00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:36,240
Speaker 2: have won two of those matches. One was at Chelsea

529
00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:38,399
Speaker 2: in which Chelsea missed like four or five sitters and

530
00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:42,479
Speaker 2: it was hilarious and Forrest won. They have the other

531
00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:44,760
Speaker 2: one was last year against Southampton, who finished bottom of

532
00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:49,199
Speaker 2: the table. They have had six draws, they have had

533
00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:51,840
Speaker 2: eighteen defeats. It's been really really bad and it's still

534
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:55,560
Speaker 2: really really bad. Their extra difference at home is positive,

535
00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:59,240
Speaker 2: their actually difference away from home is negative. And I

536
00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:00,720
Speaker 2: think we can get a little bit caught up in

537
00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:03,760
Speaker 2: like the noise of these samples. They're small samples of

538
00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:06,600
Speaker 2: data we're looking at with home roads, but it just

539
00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:08,760
Speaker 2: whan you watch the games doesn't look like the same team.

540
00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:12,080
Speaker 2: And so you know, do I want to lay I

541
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:16,080
Speaker 2: want to bet Forest again into this freaking road spot

542
00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:18,440
Speaker 2: against an even team that they're not any worse than,

543
00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:20,120
Speaker 2: but like when they go on the road, they played

544
00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:22,320
Speaker 2: like they played like a second tier team. I mean,

545
00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:26,080
Speaker 2: they were horrible against Fulham today. Fulham got everything they wanted,

546
00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:29,720
Speaker 2: destroyed them. Uh And you know, we're not high on Fulham,

547
00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:31,840
Speaker 2: and I don't think Fulham's any good. So the fact

548
00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:34,440
Speaker 2: that Fulham, who struggles as a favorite, made it look

549
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:37,359
Speaker 2: so easy today just leaves me alarmed. And now that

550
00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:40,800
Speaker 2: being said, you're right, like team gets embarrassed, there should

551
00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:43,600
Speaker 2: be a response. That makes this an interesting spot for them,

552
00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 2: because if they don't respond, then it's you have to

553
00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:49,000
Speaker 2: start asking questions about Cooper. I think because the talent

554
00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:50,560
Speaker 2: on this team is better than they're performing.

555
00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:58,200
Speaker 1: Ever did. As I said earlier, they are playing it Thursday,

556
00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 1: were recording Wednesday night. They are hosting Chelsea here the

557
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 1: Toffees plus two twenty Chelsea traveling as a plus one

558
00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:10,440
Speaker 1: twenty road favorite and draw would pay out plus two

559
00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:15,280
Speaker 1: forty at Goodis in Park. Feels like this one can go.

560
00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:19,200
Speaker 1: You could go in the same sort of direction as

561
00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:23,480
Speaker 1: we did with Newcastle and Everden, which is probably just

562
00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:28,080
Speaker 1: about more saying about how Everydon wants to play games

563
00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:32,480
Speaker 1: than anything else, which is probably gonna be goals in

564
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:34,760
Speaker 1: this if Chelsea has its scoring boots on, which is

565
00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:37,240
Speaker 1: one thing I guess you always have to consider. But

566
00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:40,320
Speaker 1: uh yeah, it's hard. It's hard to see this one

567
00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:45,920
Speaker 1: finishing like as a snoozefest. So this Everdon team can

568
00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:49,280
Speaker 1: they they can ask content, Oh.

569
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:50,880
Speaker 2: There's a little more juice at two and a half.

570
00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:52,440
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna.

571
00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:54,720
Speaker 1: I find that weird, Like I would have thought that

572
00:29:55,120 --> 00:30:00,960
Speaker 1: you'd probably see the last I saw a new Overs

573
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:04,560
Speaker 1: two and a half at minus one ten yeah, which.

574
00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:06,240
Speaker 2: To me sounds like minus one thirty ish.

575
00:30:06,320 --> 00:30:08,040
Speaker 1: Yes, I find that to be strange.

576
00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:11,520
Speaker 2: I actually have them right around the same number, which

577
00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:14,520
Speaker 2: is why I bet the over on Thursday for Everton Newcastle.

578
00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:16,680
Speaker 2: But I think that this is about right. I don't

579
00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:20,560
Speaker 2: have a strong opinion here. Look, if you're one of

580
00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:23,320
Speaker 2: those people who's like, well, what is Chelsea done to

581
00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:26,080
Speaker 2: deserve this market rating? This is the same price the

582
00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:29,000
Speaker 2: market says Chelsea and Newcastle or even teams, do you

583
00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:33,680
Speaker 2: If you don't, then you probably should bet Everton here

584
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:37,080
Speaker 2: on Sunday. I would understand waiting too, though. I think

585
00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:40,440
Speaker 2: from a tactical matchup, Everton is not going to leave

586
00:30:40,440 --> 00:30:43,520
Speaker 2: a ton of space in behind. So that's not great

587
00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:46,000
Speaker 2: for Chelsea and how they normally like to attack teams.

588
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:51,680
Speaker 2: But Everton could very well be very different tactically in

589
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:53,760
Speaker 2: this match against Newcastle than they are against Chelsea in

590
00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:57,320
Speaker 2: the sense that Diyce knows that if he's I mean,

591
00:30:57,400 --> 00:31:00,480
Speaker 2: he's a smart manager. Chelsea's biggest weakness is if you

592
00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:02,680
Speaker 2: just give them the ball and sit deep and then say, okay,

593
00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:04,560
Speaker 2: you don't have a lot of technically great players in

594
00:31:04,640 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 2: space in tight spaces, can you break us down? And

595
00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:11,320
Speaker 2: he plays that style? This could get ugly and be

596
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:14,000
Speaker 2: just like a low scoring affair. So I don't really

597
00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:16,560
Speaker 2: like Everton is very volatile on how they approach matches

598
00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:19,320
Speaker 2: and what Diys decides to do is up in the air.

599
00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:22,200
Speaker 2: But I think if you were being smart, he would

600
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:24,520
Speaker 2: sit deep in dere Chelsea to beat them at Goodison

601
00:31:24,560 --> 00:31:27,640
Speaker 2: and I don't know that they could. So no bet

602
00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:29,600
Speaker 2: for me here yet, probably won't end up having one either.

603
00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:32,560
Speaker 1: The bogie team of the podcast full of plus one

604
00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:35,680
Speaker 1: thirty seven taking on west Ham plus one eighty.

605
00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:38,800
Speaker 2: I've never wanted to better match less than Fulham west

606
00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:41,479
Speaker 2: Ham this weekend or watch it. I mean, I'm sure

607
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:43,880
Speaker 2: it'll be good. And it's London Derby and two mid

608
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:46,360
Speaker 2: table teams, two teams that I've bet against more than

609
00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:49,400
Speaker 2: any other in the prem this year. West hasn't played yet.

610
00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:52,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't think there's much to add.

611
00:31:53,120 --> 00:31:55,520
Speaker 2: Well, Fulham did it again. I talked literally like I

612
00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 2: didn't have the match on, but I got the goal

613
00:31:57,400 --> 00:32:00,200
Speaker 2: alert I'm like Alex, it will be scored again. Like

614
00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:02,680
Speaker 2: Alex Wilby and Scott mcdomin, they should like get dinner

615
00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:07,760
Speaker 2: somewhere and talk about how their managers have somehow figured

616
00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:10,680
Speaker 2: out a way to get them in positions where they

617
00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:13,040
Speaker 2: all they do is score goals and don't really contribute

618
00:32:13,040 --> 00:32:14,320
Speaker 2: a ton else to the team.

619
00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:19,520
Speaker 1: Because Frank Lampard did it. Yeah, Woby was a scoring machine.

620
00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:21,880
Speaker 1: I think he had four forever in that year.

621
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:23,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, and look at you know, it's a part of

622
00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:25,320
Speaker 2: their skill set. They're both good at it, and it's

623
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:30,480
Speaker 2: massed some other attacking flaws. Raoul scored the Ghost of Raoul.

624
00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:34,680
Speaker 2: I know, somebody mentioned in our Action Network Discord Raoul

625
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:37,120
Speaker 2: doubled his XG total for the season with his big

626
00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:41,440
Speaker 2: chance today that he finished. You know, it's just like

627
00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:44,640
Speaker 2: they can't keep doing this. They can't. I will go

628
00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:47,520
Speaker 2: to you know, I will go to my deathbed, which

629
00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:49,080
Speaker 2: is where I will be soon if they keep winning,

630
00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:53,000
Speaker 2: saying the fulham ca keck getting away with this. But

631
00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:54,440
Speaker 2: you know what, Forest plus a half one of the

632
00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:57,120
Speaker 2: worst bets I'll make all year, And I'll tell you what,

633
00:32:57,120 --> 00:32:58,320
Speaker 2: it's not gonna be one of the worst bets. I'll

634
00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:01,200
Speaker 2: make all year west Ham in this match, so I'm

635
00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:01,880
Speaker 2: going to pass.

636
00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:04,800
Speaker 1: And to wrap up the Premier League portion of the program,

637
00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:11,400
Speaker 1: scuffling Manchester City traveling to Kenilworth Road taking on Lowton Town.

638
00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:15,600
Speaker 2: I was sitting at lunch watching this match yesterday Luton

639
00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:18,400
Speaker 2: and Arsenal, and I was starting to draft my apology

640
00:33:18,440 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 2: letter at three two.

641
00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:22,000
Speaker 1: It wasn't an apology letter. It was that you were

642
00:33:22,040 --> 00:33:23,800
Speaker 1: not going to be on the podcast for.

643
00:33:28,040 --> 00:33:29,360
Speaker 2: That would have been a rough pod. I would have

644
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:31,840
Speaker 2: had to get a laun Shapiro to emergency pod to

645
00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:33,840
Speaker 2: drop by and maybe offer some commentary.

646
00:33:33,960 --> 00:33:36,040
Speaker 1: It would be it would have been me a line

647
00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:40,360
Speaker 1: and Fabrizia going, Eric, Eric Winalda, Eric Whatnalda yep?

648
00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:43,280
Speaker 2: Eric Eric Wenalda would have said, how he saw this coming? Yeah,

649
00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:45,840
Speaker 2: and he knew Luton was going to beat Arsenal. Yeah,

650
00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:47,640
Speaker 2: because it's so tough to go to kennor Worth Road.

651
00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:49,680
Speaker 2: I love when they showed the matches and the camera

652
00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:52,160
Speaker 2: is so low you can like barely like it's it's

653
00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:53,480
Speaker 2: like so different from all the other ones.

654
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:55,840
Speaker 1: Now cities get gets to deal with it.

655
00:33:56,760 --> 00:34:00,479
Speaker 2: Now they do get Rodrey back from suspend. They do

656
00:34:00,520 --> 00:34:04,280
Speaker 2: get Grealish back from suspension, so they'll have a functional

657
00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:08,560
Speaker 2: team this week. Do Bruyna not too far away either,

658
00:34:09,160 --> 00:34:14,080
Speaker 2: He's looking like January right, Yeah, so they're minus one

659
00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:17,320
Speaker 2: ten to win the title. No thanks, not yet, not yet,

660
00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:20,279
Speaker 2: not yet. Liverpool will play Arsenal coming up in a

661
00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:23,560
Speaker 2: couple of weeks here, right before Christmas. City's got a

662
00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:25,279
Speaker 2: little bit of a lighter patch coming up here now.

663
00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:29,359
Speaker 2: It will be fascinating because they don't look like they

664
00:34:29,360 --> 00:34:31,279
Speaker 2: have the same juice right now. But we said the

665
00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:33,840
Speaker 2: same thing last year before the World Cup break, and

666
00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:35,880
Speaker 2: then they just did have the juice and dominated everybody

667
00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:40,799
Speaker 2: in the second half. So maybe they need a break,

668
00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:41,920
Speaker 2: but they're not going to really get one. I mean,

669
00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:43,839
Speaker 2: they'll play a lot of matches here club World Cup

670
00:34:43,920 --> 00:34:46,160
Speaker 2: coming up, You're gonna get a couple of matches off

671
00:34:46,160 --> 00:34:48,360
Speaker 2: from the prem so they're going to be behind in

672
00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:51,040
Speaker 2: the points too by the way that game's played, So

673
00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:53,080
Speaker 2: it's going to look bigger than it actually is. Kind

674
00:34:53,080 --> 00:34:58,560
Speaker 2: of like last year. And uh, I'm not betting City yet.

675
00:34:58,600 --> 00:35:01,799
Speaker 2: People have asked me, I'm not betting Villa. Somebody asked

676
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:05,719
Speaker 2: me that too. Uh, you know, for me it's it's

677
00:35:06,239 --> 00:35:09,720
Speaker 2: still Liverpool's got the best chance to do it. Arsenal.

678
00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:13,840
Speaker 2: If Jesus could stay healthy, maybe, but City Lowton no

679
00:35:13,920 --> 00:35:16,160
Speaker 2: bet if it got if it got to two and

680
00:35:16,160 --> 00:35:17,520
Speaker 2: a half flat, I'd bet it, But I don't think

681
00:35:17,520 --> 00:35:17,799
Speaker 2: it will.

682
00:35:19,320 --> 00:35:23,000
Speaker 1: Okay, Bundesliga next Actually, I can just flip it over

683
00:35:23,000 --> 00:35:25,280
Speaker 1: to you here. You can take us on an adventure

684
00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:29,440
Speaker 1: through all Europe with BJ on the sidelines, and I'll

685
00:35:29,480 --> 00:35:32,520
Speaker 1: catch up to you when we talk about our underdogs.

686
00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:34,640
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna go on a huge rant right here.

687
00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:37,360
Speaker 2: Just yeah, here we go, right, Just take Stutgart is

688
00:35:37,480 --> 00:35:39,360
Speaker 2: there's some really big matches in the Bundesliga this weekend

689
00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:43,239
Speaker 2: too highlight matches. Stutgart is going to host leaverrakuzen Uh.

690
00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:44,920
Speaker 2: You know, the second and third best team in the

691
00:35:44,960 --> 00:35:48,560
Speaker 2: Bundesliga this year, by every metric you look at, the

692
00:35:48,600 --> 00:35:50,799
Speaker 2: second best team has actually been Stuttgart and they're at

693
00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:53,959
Speaker 2: home catching almost a half goal. There's a half goal

694
00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:56,960
Speaker 2: minus one forty five out there. Stutgart beat Dortmund this

695
00:35:57,040 --> 00:36:00,680
Speaker 2: week in the pocal at home. They can continue to roll.

696
00:36:01,200 --> 00:36:03,920
Speaker 2: This team's metrics all look legit to me, Like if

697
00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:06,640
Speaker 2: you go under the hood. Last year they had all

698
00:36:06,719 --> 00:36:10,560
Speaker 2: of the metrics in terms of like ball progression and

699
00:36:10,760 --> 00:36:13,600
Speaker 2: box entries, and they didn't really have great ext numbers

700
00:36:13,600 --> 00:36:15,839
Speaker 2: and then they were underperforming them. They've upgraded in goal

701
00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:19,319
Speaker 2: this year, like everything about this team is trending up

702
00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:21,520
Speaker 2: in the right direction and looks like a legitimate top

703
00:36:21,560 --> 00:36:23,359
Speaker 2: four team. They're not being priced like it, though, because

704
00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:26,200
Speaker 2: they are a half goal underdog against a Leverkusen team

705
00:36:26,239 --> 00:36:29,600
Speaker 2: who has basically the same exact numbers. These two teams

706
00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:34,040
Speaker 2: have been extremely similar, but I'm getting half goal to

707
00:36:34,120 --> 00:36:35,920
Speaker 2: a quarter goal at home, where this really should be

708
00:36:35,920 --> 00:36:38,279
Speaker 2: a pickup. I think in Stutguard. Lever Cusin is still

709
00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:41,200
Speaker 2: a little better based on priors, but not that much,

710
00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:44,600
Speaker 2: so I do like stut Guard at home. We continue

711
00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:49,560
Speaker 2: to bet them every week. Leverkusen is currently second in

712
00:36:49,600 --> 00:36:53,840
Speaker 2: the BUNDESLEIGUA. Now Leipzig and Dortmund will playoff somehow not

713
00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:56,880
Speaker 2: the biggest match on the weekend, which is crazy for

714
00:36:56,960 --> 00:36:59,840
Speaker 2: the race, but if you can stomach it, I do

715
00:36:59,840 --> 00:37:02,000
Speaker 2: the totals a little bit too high. Macoco went off

716
00:37:02,000 --> 00:37:04,440
Speaker 2: injured today in the Cup, so that's like a good

717
00:37:04,520 --> 00:37:07,520
Speaker 2: depth piece. Ful Krug should start and he's been their

718
00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:09,640
Speaker 2: main guy this year, but you know, they do like

719
00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:11,799
Speaker 2: to use mcco in the second half and get those

720
00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:13,360
Speaker 2: late goals in there, and when they don't get them,

721
00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:17,320
Speaker 2: they're just not quite as good. Dortmund still really flawed defensively,

722
00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:21,120
Speaker 2: but they are at home here. Leipzig's attack has run

723
00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:23,600
Speaker 2: better than everybody in all of Europe just about this season.

724
00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:27,719
Speaker 2: If you look at their defense though, especially away from home,

725
00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:30,359
Speaker 2: they've still been elite, conceding one xg per match away

726
00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:33,359
Speaker 2: from home, creating though just eight expected goals and six

727
00:37:33,400 --> 00:37:35,640
Speaker 2: away matches, which is pretty bad for them. So I

728
00:37:35,680 --> 00:37:38,799
Speaker 2: think this Leipzig attack is still overvalued. Total sitting at

729
00:37:38,800 --> 00:37:40,600
Speaker 2: three and a half under minus one thirty, I have

730
00:37:40,600 --> 00:37:42,799
Speaker 2: it closer to three. So if you wanted to play

731
00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:44,680
Speaker 2: the under there, I would not blame you. It's an

732
00:37:44,760 --> 00:37:47,720
Speaker 2: ultimate hold your nose under though, because these fixtures between

733
00:37:47,760 --> 00:37:52,359
Speaker 2: these two teams historically have flown over the total with

734
00:37:52,600 --> 00:37:56,320
Speaker 2: relative comfort, and so like I know, they played in

735
00:37:56,560 --> 00:37:58,560
Speaker 2: the Poku quarterfinals and the end of two zero, but

736
00:37:59,000 --> 00:38:01,920
Speaker 2: the league matches say between these two teams pretty much

737
00:38:01,920 --> 00:38:04,000
Speaker 2: a lock for three to four goals in the past,

738
00:38:04,040 --> 00:38:06,799
Speaker 2: So I do think this is total to touch high

739
00:38:06,840 --> 00:38:09,440
Speaker 2: under three and a half in this one for me

740
00:38:09,600 --> 00:38:14,279
Speaker 2: in the Bundesliga. And as we transition into Syria, there's

741
00:38:14,280 --> 00:38:17,440
Speaker 2: a couple games we're playing the hits Roma again. They

742
00:38:17,440 --> 00:38:21,480
Speaker 2: had a comeback win against Udinese, actually against the Swolo

743
00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:24,640
Speaker 2: last week because of a red card and penalty, some

744
00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:27,120
Speaker 2: luck there. But they're at home against Fiorentina. The market

745
00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:29,600
Speaker 2: is saying that Roma and Fiorentina are about equal teams.

746
00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:33,480
Speaker 2: And look, I know we've talked about this Fiorentina team

747
00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:35,160
Speaker 2: and we bet them a lot last year. They don't

748
00:38:35,160 --> 00:38:40,600
Speaker 2: look nearly as consistent this year from a box perspective,

749
00:38:40,600 --> 00:38:42,400
Speaker 2: like they've really taken a step back. They lost some

750
00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:46,799
Speaker 2: talent in the penalty area, their defense, like they play

751
00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:50,040
Speaker 2: a style that's very open in Syria, and because the

752
00:38:50,120 --> 00:38:52,920
Speaker 2: pressing numbers are so mediocre league wide, if you're not

753
00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:54,719
Speaker 2: going to press a lot and then you're going to

754
00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:56,880
Speaker 2: be open at the back and leave space in behind,

755
00:38:57,000 --> 00:38:59,399
Speaker 2: you're going to get got. And that's exactly what's happened

756
00:38:59,400 --> 00:39:02,480
Speaker 2: to this Fiorentina team. They're thirteenth in non penalty expected

757
00:39:02,520 --> 00:39:05,520
Speaker 2: goals allowed despite having the fewest final third entries in

758
00:39:05,520 --> 00:39:07,520
Speaker 2: the League, because when they do get broken open, they

759
00:39:07,520 --> 00:39:09,239
Speaker 2: give up goals and that's just not what you want

760
00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:11,719
Speaker 2: to do against Jose Mourinho, who will sit deep and

761
00:39:11,760 --> 00:39:14,680
Speaker 2: wait for one two opportunities and get them and then score.

762
00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:18,840
Speaker 2: So Roma team looks like a legit top four. They're

763
00:39:19,239 --> 00:39:21,759
Speaker 2: elite at guarding in the penalty area. They're actually per

764
00:39:21,800 --> 00:39:24,560
Speaker 2: set piece is terrible. I think that's been some bad luck.

765
00:39:24,560 --> 00:39:26,239
Speaker 2: Teams have hit some really good set pieces on them

766
00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:28,719
Speaker 2: and hurt them. But Roma plus one ten at home.

767
00:39:29,120 --> 00:39:31,120
Speaker 2: Bologna has been a bet on team for me most

768
00:39:31,160 --> 00:39:33,560
Speaker 2: of this season. I bet them a couple times. I

769
00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:38,799
Speaker 2: think they're undervalued against Bjay's hate squad of Salernitana, so

770
00:39:38,880 --> 00:39:42,239
Speaker 2: I'll go with Roma plus one fifteen plus one ten

771
00:39:42,280 --> 00:39:44,799
Speaker 2: and then I like Bologna. On the road. Bologna has

772
00:39:44,880 --> 00:39:47,359
Speaker 2: quietly been trending up to They do a really nice job,

773
00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:50,200
Speaker 2: underrated job of investing in young talent and it's worked

774
00:39:50,200 --> 00:39:53,040
Speaker 2: for them this year. Zerxi, the former Bayern reject five

775
00:39:53,080 --> 00:39:57,759
Speaker 2: goals for them this year. As we go to La

776
00:39:57,800 --> 00:40:00,160
Speaker 2: Liga the match of the weekend at the time, top

777
00:40:00,160 --> 00:40:02,520
Speaker 2: of the table is Girona, who continues to own me

778
00:40:03,080 --> 00:40:05,080
Speaker 2: and everybody who bets against them. They score two late

779
00:40:05,120 --> 00:40:09,839
Speaker 2: goals to beat Valencia. They go to Barsa. Thought we'd

780
00:40:09,840 --> 00:40:12,319
Speaker 2: get a good Barsa spot. Market still not respecting this

781
00:40:12,360 --> 00:40:15,480
Speaker 2: Girona team though. Barsa minus two hundred nos staging until January.

782
00:40:15,920 --> 00:40:18,560
Speaker 2: No thank you on that one. I'll be passing. Definitely

783
00:40:18,600 --> 00:40:20,080
Speaker 2: not going to bet Girona, but do think that number

784
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:22,759
Speaker 2: is a little high. Girona has not been terrible, even

785
00:40:22,760 --> 00:40:24,800
Speaker 2: though they've had a week schedule. My actually bet in

786
00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:26,640
Speaker 2: lad Of League is gonna be Mayorca pick them minus

787
00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:29,200
Speaker 2: one ten on the island against Sevilla. Micro has played

788
00:40:29,960 --> 00:40:32,920
Speaker 2: seven matches at home this year. They've drawn six of them,

789
00:40:33,080 --> 00:40:35,120
Speaker 2: they've lost one. They have not won at home all year,

790
00:40:35,360 --> 00:40:37,359
Speaker 2: but they've only had nine total goals in their games.

791
00:40:37,400 --> 00:40:39,920
Speaker 2: It's been some of the worst. It was diabolical soccer

792
00:40:39,920 --> 00:40:43,440
Speaker 2: you'll ever see. Now they play Sevilla, who away from

793
00:40:43,480 --> 00:40:46,200
Speaker 2: home this year has created less than one expected goal

794
00:40:46,520 --> 00:40:48,600
Speaker 2: unless they get like a cross and get on the

795
00:40:48,600 --> 00:40:51,440
Speaker 2: board here Like it's really hard to see Sevia creating

796
00:40:51,520 --> 00:40:54,360
Speaker 2: much and Myorka has been just the better team overall.

797
00:40:54,920 --> 00:40:58,880
Speaker 2: They they're at home at worst. I could make this

798
00:40:58,960 --> 00:41:01,520
Speaker 2: Maorka minus a goal. I think it should be even higher.

799
00:41:01,560 --> 00:41:03,640
Speaker 2: So I'm just you know, higher than the market on

800
00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:05,680
Speaker 2: this my Orca team. But think that Sevilla continues to

801
00:41:05,680 --> 00:41:08,880
Speaker 2: get market respect they don't deserve. Savia did have a

802
00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:11,080
Speaker 2: lead in the Fraud Bowl against via Reale, then they

803
00:41:11,080 --> 00:41:14,359
Speaker 2: blew it. They blew a lead to Einhoven blew lead

804
00:41:14,360 --> 00:41:18,319
Speaker 2: associated This team has been really bad at holding leads too,

805
00:41:18,360 --> 00:41:20,759
Speaker 2: so that definitely hurts if Majorca has to go for

806
00:41:20,840 --> 00:41:22,600
Speaker 2: it late and they're trying to hold on a lead.

807
00:41:22,719 --> 00:41:26,920
Speaker 2: So Myorca pick them in Spain and then in France

808
00:41:28,040 --> 00:41:31,560
Speaker 2: Classic by low Sell High on Friday afternoon. Montpellier is

809
00:41:31,600 --> 00:41:34,719
Speaker 2: plus two to fifteen. They have lost four, drawn five

810
00:41:34,760 --> 00:41:37,359
Speaker 2: straight matches. Pretty much every match has been a coin

811
00:41:37,360 --> 00:41:40,160
Speaker 2: flip by XG. They've even won a couple of them.

812
00:41:40,239 --> 00:41:42,680
Speaker 2: And you look at Lawn, who had a terrible start

813
00:41:42,680 --> 00:41:44,919
Speaker 2: to the year where we were fading them early. They've

814
00:41:44,960 --> 00:41:47,919
Speaker 2: won five in a row, but they've had pretty even

815
00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:50,240
Speaker 2: expected goals and those are five matches the markets started

816
00:41:50,239 --> 00:41:52,439
Speaker 2: to bump them, bump them, bump them. I don't really agree.

817
00:41:52,480 --> 00:41:53,960
Speaker 2: I think they've been kind of just the same average

818
00:41:54,040 --> 00:41:56,520
Speaker 2: league on team all year. So not much different between

819
00:41:56,520 --> 00:41:59,560
Speaker 2: these two teams. Montpellier plus two to fifteen against Lawn.

820
00:42:00,280 --> 00:42:02,160
Speaker 2: I think that line is just short. I think they

821
00:42:02,160 --> 00:42:03,320
Speaker 2: should be a pick them at worst.

822
00:42:03,880 --> 00:42:08,200
Speaker 1: It's beautifully done. Uh, and I'm back. It's time to

823
00:42:08,239 --> 00:42:12,440
Speaker 1: talk underdogs. Bj is on one of the teams you

824
00:42:12,480 --> 00:42:16,239
Speaker 1: talked about, that stute Gart as they take on buyer Leverkusen.

825
00:42:16,320 --> 00:42:19,400
Speaker 1: They are two to one on the money line. For me,

826
00:42:20,040 --> 00:42:23,759
Speaker 1: I'm going with Bourne Myth going against Manchester United once

827
00:42:23,760 --> 00:42:25,120
Speaker 1: again in the spot.

828
00:42:26,400 --> 00:42:28,440
Speaker 2: We had one week.

829
00:42:29,800 --> 00:42:31,960
Speaker 1: We cashed our United tickets against Chelsea and now we

830
00:42:32,000 --> 00:42:36,600
Speaker 1: get to just leave it rear view mirror stuff, uh

831
00:42:36,640 --> 00:42:39,759
Speaker 1: and go right back into the rhythm that makes us

832
00:42:39,840 --> 00:42:41,800
Speaker 1: that that feels natural to us, which is going against

833
00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:44,759
Speaker 1: this team and going against them with big prices. They've

834
00:42:44,800 --> 00:42:49,120
Speaker 1: already proven that they can lose to anybody. This season.

835
00:42:49,160 --> 00:42:54,239
Speaker 1: They've lost to Copenhagen, Galatasaraye, They've barely beaten teams like

836
00:42:54,440 --> 00:42:59,000
Speaker 1: Sheffield United and follow them and all sorts of teams

837
00:42:59,040 --> 00:43:02,759
Speaker 1: in the same tier as Bourne Myth. A Bournemouth team

838
00:43:02,800 --> 00:43:06,879
Speaker 1: that is steadily rising up the Premier League rankings. Here,

839
00:43:06,920 --> 00:43:10,080
Speaker 1: we like this team. The definition of a bet on

840
00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:13,960
Speaker 1: team against the definition of a bet against team. So

841
00:43:14,080 --> 00:43:16,239
Speaker 1: play on the cherries here four to one for.

842
00:43:16,239 --> 00:43:18,480
Speaker 2: Me, and I would go with Aston Villa plus two

843
00:43:18,520 --> 00:43:20,560
Speaker 2: fifty at home against Arsenal. Think this is a high

844
00:43:20,640 --> 00:43:24,200
Speaker 2: variance matchup because if you think that everything that happened

845
00:43:24,239 --> 00:43:26,239
Speaker 2: in the Villa City match had more to do with City,

846
00:43:26,880 --> 00:43:29,640
Speaker 2: I'm probably wrong, and Villa probably won't beat Arsenal and

847
00:43:29,680 --> 00:43:31,480
Speaker 2: win back to back matches against the two or the

848
00:43:31,520 --> 00:43:35,160
Speaker 2: three top teams in the league. But this home voodoo

849
00:43:35,160 --> 00:43:37,560
Speaker 2: that Villa has, this ability to play through pressure that

850
00:43:37,560 --> 00:43:40,160
Speaker 2: they've able to come with at Villa Park, has been

851
00:43:40,160 --> 00:43:42,880
Speaker 2: really impressive and something that's worth taking a flyer on.

852
00:43:43,040 --> 00:43:47,600
Speaker 2: Continuing at plus two to fifty against Arsenal, who again

853
00:43:47,760 --> 00:43:50,000
Speaker 2: has built up a lot of great home wins, but

854
00:43:50,040 --> 00:43:52,160
Speaker 2: the away form has been a little bit shakier, So

855
00:43:52,719 --> 00:43:56,280
Speaker 2: take that what it may. Arsenal's now had five games

856
00:43:56,560 --> 00:43:59,120
Speaker 2: where they've eily equalized or won an eighty eighth minute

857
00:43:59,160 --> 00:44:04,360
Speaker 2: or later. That's the stuff of magical carpet ride seasons

858
00:44:04,400 --> 00:44:06,239
Speaker 2: that win titles. But you know what, I'm not gonna say,

859
00:44:06,239 --> 00:44:07,719
Speaker 2: because I don't think it's gonna happen.

860
00:44:08,360 --> 00:44:12,879
Speaker 1: That parlay stute Gart, Bournemouth and Aston Villa pays out

861
00:44:12,880 --> 00:44:18,040
Speaker 1: a flat fifty to one five zero to one. My

862
00:44:18,080 --> 00:44:19,960
Speaker 1: favorite bet in the Premier League. Now, as we move

863
00:44:20,000 --> 00:44:25,160
Speaker 1: into our final segment of this episode, is Newcastle on

864
00:44:25,200 --> 00:44:28,479
Speaker 1: the money line against Tottenham. Newcastle on the road here,

865
00:44:28,520 --> 00:44:31,959
Speaker 1: but I'm not all that concerned there. They're getting bodies back.

866
00:44:32,680 --> 00:44:34,880
Speaker 1: They've been a better team than Tottenham all season, despite

867
00:44:34,880 --> 00:44:38,840
Speaker 1: the records not looking that way. Every predictive metric we

868
00:44:38,880 --> 00:44:40,960
Speaker 1: look at tells you that story. And I know the

869
00:44:41,000 --> 00:44:44,040
Speaker 1: Spurs are getting better and we could start to see

870
00:44:44,040 --> 00:44:46,040
Speaker 1: them maybe bounce back into form a bit here, but

871
00:44:46,400 --> 00:44:49,239
Speaker 1: they're punching up, I think in the spot and I

872
00:44:49,280 --> 00:44:54,480
Speaker 1: would make this closer to pick them. Market disagrees, we

873
00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:56,879
Speaker 1: will see. So I like Newcastle plus one seventy five.

874
00:44:57,400 --> 00:44:59,080
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean even when Tottenham were healthy, they weren't

875
00:44:59,120 --> 00:45:02,600
Speaker 2: that good, which I know you guys try to tell me,

876
00:45:02,680 --> 00:45:07,600
Speaker 2: but I didn't listen. I'm gonna go with Crystal Palace

877
00:45:07,600 --> 00:45:10,560
Speaker 2: plus one at home against Liverpool. I know that Liverpool

878
00:45:10,560 --> 00:45:12,439
Speaker 2: had a routine win against Sheffield. I know the Palace

879
00:45:12,480 --> 00:45:14,480
Speaker 2: looked pretty bad against Bournemouth, but the line did move

880
00:45:14,560 --> 00:45:17,080
Speaker 2: up and as a result, it's less than minus one

881
00:45:17,160 --> 00:45:19,680
Speaker 2: ten here on the plus one minus one o nine.

882
00:45:20,400 --> 00:45:23,960
Speaker 2: I really think that Liverpool's inflated. Their defense is still

883
00:45:24,000 --> 00:45:26,600
Speaker 2: not consistent enough. And I know I laid it against

884
00:45:26,640 --> 00:45:29,920
Speaker 2: Fulham and lost, but I think this Liverpool team with

885
00:45:30,040 --> 00:45:34,120
Speaker 2: the backup goalie, with you know, McAllister going off today

886
00:45:34,239 --> 00:45:37,560
Speaker 2: and Sola looking exhausted like it just feels like Liverpool

887
00:45:37,880 --> 00:45:40,000
Speaker 2: is a little vulnerable right now. They have some big

888
00:45:40,000 --> 00:45:44,480
Speaker 2: fixtures coming up and I'm gonna take the palace underdog

889
00:45:44,640 --> 00:45:47,359
Speaker 2: story here plus one at home to just be really

890
00:45:47,400 --> 00:45:49,759
Speaker 2: annoying in this spot and make it really tough for

891
00:45:49,840 --> 00:45:51,280
Speaker 2: Liverpool to break them down and get margin.

892
00:45:51,480 --> 00:45:53,719
Speaker 1: Okay, that does it for this episode of Wonder Goald,

893
00:45:53,719 --> 00:45:56,400
Speaker 1: we will be bet. We will be back on Monday

894
00:45:56,440 --> 00:46:00,920
Speaker 1: morning to preview the final matches the group stage of

895
00:46:01,000 --> 00:46:03,759
Speaker 1: the Champions League. So until then, best of luck with

896
00:46:03,800 --> 00:46:06,920
Speaker 1: all your bets. Thank you once again to our producer

897
00:46:07,000 --> 00:46:09,480
Speaker 1: Noah on the back end, and thank you to our

898
00:46:09,520 --> 00:46:12,760
Speaker 1: sponsor's bet three six five for Anthony Dubundo and Bja Cunningham.

899
00:46:12,760 --> 00:46:13,359
Speaker 1: I'm Michael EBA.

900
00:46:20,920 --> 00:46:25,440
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

901
00:46:25,480 --> 00:46:28,279
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem. Help is

902
00:46:28,320 --> 00:46:31,440
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