WEBVTT - This ETF is Rated R

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Trillance. I'm Joel Webber and I'm Eric Beltunas Eric.

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<v Speaker 1>The past week has been an interesting one, to say

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<v Speaker 1>the least in the markets. Right there was a Job's

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<v Speaker 1>report that came out on Friday, a new FED share

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<v Speaker 1>started on Monday, and then we saw some red, a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of red, and it kind of rebounded the following day.

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<v Speaker 1>But there's a lot of turbulence in the market right now,

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<v Speaker 1>and a lot of investors, especially if you're new to investing,

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<v Speaker 1>are seeing red in a way that they've never seen

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<v Speaker 1>before because we've we've been in this epic bowl market

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<v Speaker 1>for for almost a decade now. Yeah, it started to

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<v Speaker 1>seem like utopia, like you're just especially with the FED

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<v Speaker 1>and how they kind of had the markets back for

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<v Speaker 1>a while. Then Trump won. That was another catalyst. Just

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<v Speaker 1>been this nice perform Yeah, yeah, there's always some reason

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<v Speaker 1>to buy right and now we've gotten some shakiness. And

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<v Speaker 1>for me, it was very unfortunate because I am in

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<v Speaker 1>Philly on Sunday night the Eagles win. I didn't get

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<v Speaker 1>to bed until three in the morning on Sunday, and

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<v Speaker 1>I took Monday off to sort of just relish the

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<v Speaker 1>Eagles victory and I get start getting emails about some

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<v Speaker 1>of these volatility tf So around three o'clock I kind

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<v Speaker 1>of was woken from that Eagles dream and into reality

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<v Speaker 1>and spent the last basically forty eight hours dealing with

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of issues around to sell off and volatility

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<v Speaker 1>products and what have you, which is is what we're

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<v Speaker 1>going to dedicate this whole episode too this week, because

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<v Speaker 1>we've talked a lot about e t f s, but

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<v Speaker 1>they have some cousins that are called e t n s,

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<v Speaker 1>and these all fit under something called an e t P,

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<v Speaker 1>which are exchange traded products. E t N stands for

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<v Speaker 1>exchange traded notes, and ETFs are exchange traded funds. Those

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<v Speaker 1>three things are very different things. Yeah. Look, I mean

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<v Speaker 1>they went out and basically wrapped up everything you could

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<v Speaker 1>possibly think of into an e t F or an

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<v Speaker 1>e t N. We call that e TPS. Imagine a zoo, right,

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<v Speaker 1>There's different categories, and there's there's some stuff in there

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<v Speaker 1>that's highly exotic, you know, the reptile area kingdom. Yeah, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>that area you can bite, you know. And I think

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<v Speaker 1>there's some that happens every couple of years. You see

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<v Speaker 1>investors who might have gotten a little too um naive.

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<v Speaker 1>They went from the petting zoo to the reptile section, right, yes, exactly,

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<v Speaker 1>straight from petting the sheep into playing with the python.

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<v Speaker 1>We also have joining us your colleague James Seffert, who's

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<v Speaker 1>an E t F Associate analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, and

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<v Speaker 1>we're gonna talk about something I'm really excited to talk

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<v Speaker 1>about because brand new. You guys just kicked it off.

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<v Speaker 1>It's like available now on the Bloomberg terminal. It's hot,

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<v Speaker 1>it's hot. The e t F stop flight system. We

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<v Speaker 1>can say we dropped it, right, we dropped Okay, we

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<v Speaker 1>dropped this week on Trilliance, the e t F stop

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<v Speaker 1>flight systems to save you from yourself. Okay, Eric et

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<v Speaker 1>F stop light system, what is the genesis of that? Right? So,

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<v Speaker 1>E t F s are a wild it's just a

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<v Speaker 1>huge spectrum of products. And over the years I've been

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<v Speaker 1>finding that if you talk to like a financial advisor

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<v Speaker 1>network we call them wire houses where they have a

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<v Speaker 1>large network of advisors, I found they'll put E t

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<v Speaker 1>F into two categories. Either they're on the approved list

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<v Speaker 1>where they're not right, and the media there tends to

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<v Speaker 1>be they're safe or they're dangerous. But to me, there's

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<v Speaker 1>much more nuanced than that. And the other problem is

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<v Speaker 1>what's dangerous to one person might be god send to another.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, there could be a product that's triple leverage

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<v Speaker 1>junior gold miners. Now I don't know what you just said,

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<v Speaker 1>but triple leverage gold miners, okay, Just know you could

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<v Speaker 1>lose or make a lot very quickly. These are products

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<v Speaker 1>that I call trading tools, and for certain investors they're great.

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<v Speaker 1>These are like power tools, and for other investors they

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<v Speaker 1>would be horrible. Right, But they're all kind of put

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<v Speaker 1>into this big area we call e t F and

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<v Speaker 1>some aren't even technically e t S. Will get to

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<v Speaker 1>that in a minute, But arguably I thought movie ratings

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<v Speaker 1>would be useful for e t F s. You did

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<v Speaker 1>in your book, right, and I wrote this in my book.

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<v Speaker 1>You know there's like five ratings GPG, PG thirteen, r A,

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<v Speaker 1>n C seventeen. Right, Because look, at the end of

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<v Speaker 1>the day, just because children exist doesn't mean people shouldn't

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<v Speaker 1>be allowed to see a Quentin Tarantino movie. Right. We

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<v Speaker 1>want him to make his movies, but we don't want

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<v Speaker 1>like my I don't want my son to see The

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<v Speaker 1>Hateful Eight. Not until he's at least ten years old.

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<v Speaker 1>He's like nine right now. Right, Well, my dad let

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<v Speaker 1>me watch The Extorcists when I was eleven. I'm still

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<v Speaker 1>recovering that anyway. Look, movie ratings are great because the

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<v Speaker 1>other problem with rating systems out there, for e. T.

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<v Speaker 1>F is they might tell you by cell hold right

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<v Speaker 1>whether they think the underlyings can go up or down.

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<v Speaker 1>We don't do that. It be I. There's also rating

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<v Speaker 1>systems like from that are targeting advisors and they'll throw

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<v Speaker 1>all the crazy stuff out the window. They won't even

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<v Speaker 1>rate them. They're like they don't exist. They're awful. But

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<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg, you know our terminal users are sophisticated, so

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<v Speaker 1>we wanted to assist them. That could be used in

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<v Speaker 1>regardless of who the investor is or what their goal,

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<v Speaker 1>whether it's a small hedge fund, my grandma or an

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<v Speaker 1>advisor in Oklahoma. Telling you what the rating is gives

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<v Speaker 1>you advanced information to know the level of nasty surprise

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<v Speaker 1>that could be within the product. This is a helpful

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<v Speaker 1>way to avoid having a bad experience. So again, it's

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<v Speaker 1>like movie ratings. That way, you know what's appropriate to

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<v Speaker 1>take your kid to so James. The thing here is

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<v Speaker 1>that you couldn't use movie ratings, right, Yeah, that's that's copyrighted.

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<v Speaker 1>So we had to come up with something else. So

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<v Speaker 1>we came up with a stoplight, green, yellow, red, pretty simple.

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<v Speaker 1>McDonald's simple and Eric's world. It's not as exciting as saying, hey,

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<v Speaker 1>this et F rated are that's pretty cool, but it

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<v Speaker 1>tells you advanced information about what you should be doing

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<v Speaker 1>or what to be thinking about. Okay, so we've also

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<v Speaker 1>said something called exchange traded notes, and we need to

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<v Speaker 1>talk about that because an exchange traded note, or an

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<v Speaker 1>e t N is not the same thing as an

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<v Speaker 1>exchange traded fund. So what is an e t N.

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<v Speaker 1>It's an unsecured debt obligation. And really they probably shouldn't

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<v Speaker 1>be in the whole e t F universe, but they

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<v Speaker 1>kind of got grandfathered in about twelve fifteen years ago.

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<v Speaker 1>They were originally launched to go out and track areas

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<v Speaker 1>that e t s couldn't like, for example, India fifteen

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<v Speaker 1>years ago, you couldn't get in there as a foreign investor,

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<v Speaker 1>so an e t N could say, okay, we'll track

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<v Speaker 1>an India index. But it's a note. Just know that

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<v Speaker 1>that's what we're doing. You don't know what we're investing in,

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<v Speaker 1>so they'll just it's sort of like saying, just trust this.

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<v Speaker 1>And so that's why they don't report holdings, because you

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<v Speaker 1>don't exactly know what they're doing. Largely they do invest

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<v Speaker 1>in the underlying to hedge themselves, but that's ultimately what

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<v Speaker 1>it was designed for at the beginning. Now, over time,

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<v Speaker 1>all those things have opened up, and e t f

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<v Speaker 1>s track them, and most people would rather have the

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<v Speaker 1>e t F which physically holds what it says it holds.

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<v Speaker 1>But e t n s have hung around for one

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<v Speaker 1>big reason. They're essentially a tax loophole. So in the

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<v Speaker 1>cases of like futures, E t F to tract futures

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<v Speaker 1>get taxed uh in an unfortunate way. You get a

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<v Speaker 1>K one because it's like your tax like you hold futures,

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<v Speaker 1>whereas an e t N they don't hold it, so

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<v Speaker 1>their tax like shares of Microsoft. So people who don't

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<v Speaker 1>want to deal with the sort of fussy taxation will

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<v Speaker 1>use the e t N and stomach the fact that

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<v Speaker 1>it's a note and comes with credit risks. So if

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<v Speaker 1>the issue of an e t n like Barclays has some.

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<v Speaker 1>If they go back up, you could lose all your money,

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<v Speaker 1>which happened with Lehman. Actually, yeah, Lehman had a couple

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<v Speaker 1>of bear Stearns had one, and that you know, the

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<v Speaker 1>bedrock of the e t F is the fact that

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<v Speaker 1>it's built on the forty Act, yes, right, which is

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<v Speaker 1>what's made it, you know, be this stable thing for

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<v Speaker 1>as long as it's been around. E tns do not

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<v Speaker 1>have that, right, they're not built on that forty Acts.

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<v Speaker 1>So they're basically unregulated in the same way, right, they're

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<v Speaker 1>they're regulated to a degree, but yeah, they're under the Acts.

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<v Speaker 1>So they're still regulated, just not to the scrutiny that

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<v Speaker 1>ETFs are. And they're in some areas that are really interesting.

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<v Speaker 1>And one of those areas is volatility. And there's been

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<v Speaker 1>a dearth of volatility of late in the markets, right,

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<v Speaker 1>and so a lot of people piled into a certain

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<v Speaker 1>kind of trade. And I'll let you pick it up here.

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<v Speaker 1>What was that trade? So this was a trade that

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<v Speaker 1>you short vix futures and vixes volatility. Yeah, fix is

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<v Speaker 1>basically and vix vix. The vixen nets took a step

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<v Speaker 1>back the VIX index is tracking the volatile on options

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<v Speaker 1>on the SPI. In other words, if there's volatili on options,

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<v Speaker 1>it means people are looking to buy insurance on their portfolio.

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<v Speaker 1>That's what you do with puts. So if that starts

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<v Speaker 1>going up, it means people are nervous. Right now. They

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<v Speaker 1>have futures tracking the VIX, which you can invest in.

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<v Speaker 1>The futures market is what the e T s hold.

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<v Speaker 1>Most of them go long, which is they hold the

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<v Speaker 1>futures and like just like the oil et F holds

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<v Speaker 1>oil futures, but a new category came out that shorts them.

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<v Speaker 1>Now what this does is it sort of puts you

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<v Speaker 1>in the position as being like a hurricane insurance company.

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<v Speaker 1>You're selling risks. So as long as there's no problems,

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<v Speaker 1>you collect this nice premium. I mean, it's really nice.

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<v Speaker 1>That thing went up the inverse vix E T N

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<v Speaker 1>when about in the last two years. That's more it's

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<v Speaker 1>more like stepping up. I mean, that's some serious They

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<v Speaker 1>could equated to picking up nickels in front of a

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<v Speaker 1>steam roller, but those are like five dollar bills. And yes,

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<v Speaker 1>a hurricane from hell came and basically it lost nine

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<v Speaker 1>in a day so because of this low ball environment,

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<v Speaker 1>Normally it'd have more hiccups along the way and you

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<v Speaker 1>wouldn't see that level of event. But there's been such

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<v Speaker 1>this placidness over the last couple of years that when

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<v Speaker 1>it hit Man, it made up for lost time. And

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<v Speaker 1>actually Bloomberg News has done something really interesting reporting around

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<v Speaker 1>this of volatility as an you know, volatility inc. Is

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<v Speaker 1>the idea, right, there's so much money wrapped up in

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<v Speaker 1>volatility now that it's almost become its own asset class. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>this is part of the reason I think this stoplight

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<v Speaker 1>system is timely, because some of these products are useful

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<v Speaker 1>for people who know what they're doing. Say you're a

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<v Speaker 1>small hedge fund, you don't have access to some big

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<v Speaker 1>prime broker, all right, you know how to trade these things,

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<v Speaker 1>go for it. The problem is they're not labeled, and

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<v Speaker 1>so if you're a retail investor, you may not understand

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<v Speaker 1>the inner workings of Vick's futures. So big debate now

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<v Speaker 1>is whether it just banned these things or as we're proposing,

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<v Speaker 1>label them because there are people who actually might still

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<v Speaker 1>be able to use them. They're just not your grandmother. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>And and the e T F S did what they

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<v Speaker 1>were supposed to do. Vick's futures rose that day, so

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<v Speaker 1>you got the inverse of that. It's not like they

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<v Speaker 1>failed as a product, they just what they held just

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<v Speaker 1>kind of went to hell. Okay, so we had this

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<v Speaker 1>big sell off and you guys have this new stop

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<v Speaker 1>light system. Let's talk about one of the E t

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<v Speaker 1>N s the inverse vix x I V. I'm looking

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<v Speaker 1>here at your stop light system. It's got a red

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<v Speaker 1>light and seven points. James. That sounds bad. Yeah, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>that is. That is bad. So the highest we have

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<v Speaker 1>on our system is is a ten. So seven is

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<v Speaker 1>pretty high. Up is anything at ten? Yeah, we have one.

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<v Speaker 1>We have one thing that's attend on our system that

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<v Speaker 1>it's actually another e t N that's three times leveraged

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<v Speaker 1>on oil crude oil and it's actually listed OTC. It

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<v Speaker 1>has a lot of tons of different issues surrounding it.

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<v Speaker 1>So yeah, this would be like almost beyond NC seventeen. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean this would be almost like banned by the government. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>it's like times square or yeah, when it was fun.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's walk through the rating system so we get a

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<v Speaker 1>better sense of why something could be a seven out

0:11:07.320 --> 0:11:09.240
<v Speaker 1>of ten or a ten out of ten or maybe

0:11:09.320 --> 0:11:11.840
<v Speaker 1>like a zero out of ten? Does that exist? Zero

0:11:11.880 --> 0:11:13.920
<v Speaker 1>out of tens exist? There's a lot of the market

0:11:14.040 --> 0:11:16.120
<v Speaker 1>zero at tends most of vanguards funds or zero out

0:11:16.160 --> 0:11:19.280
<v Speaker 1>of ten. That's like the G category. That's like it's

0:11:19.320 --> 0:11:22.280
<v Speaker 1>safe for Grandma to just go to town with not

0:11:22.440 --> 0:11:24.640
<v Speaker 1>That's not to say the E t F will always

0:11:24.720 --> 0:11:28.560
<v Speaker 1>go up again. It's just to say there's nothing odd

0:11:28.679 --> 0:11:30.319
<v Speaker 1>that's gonna make you go, oh, I didn't know that

0:11:30.400 --> 0:11:33.280
<v Speaker 1>would happen. The system technically could go higher than ten.

0:11:33.440 --> 0:11:35.360
<v Speaker 1>We just don't have any that we rate that hit

0:11:35.440 --> 0:11:37.439
<v Speaker 1>that number. It's like mind blowing. I mean, look the

0:11:37.600 --> 0:11:41.520
<v Speaker 1>smp F, t fs uh, the aggregate bond ETFs, all

0:11:41.559 --> 0:11:44.559
<v Speaker 1>the stuff that generally is used as building blocks for

0:11:44.679 --> 0:11:48.000
<v Speaker 1>portfolio is all green. Zero All systems go have fun.

0:11:48.520 --> 0:11:53.439
<v Speaker 1>The green category likely makes up about t f sts.

0:11:53.960 --> 0:11:56.199
<v Speaker 1>And at what point do you get a yellow light

0:11:56.559 --> 0:11:58.520
<v Speaker 1>or a red light? When you get one point in

0:11:58.600 --> 0:12:00.599
<v Speaker 1>our system or one in fraction, whatever you want to

0:12:00.640 --> 0:12:02.160
<v Speaker 1>call it, and then to get to a red light

0:12:02.200 --> 0:12:05.839
<v Speaker 1>you need three points or or infraction from there, YEA.

0:12:05.880 --> 0:12:09.559
<v Speaker 1>So yellow light is sort of like PGPG thirteen area

0:12:10.040 --> 0:12:13.000
<v Speaker 1>in terms of violations, and you know, look, we don't

0:12:13.040 --> 0:12:15.080
<v Speaker 1>just look at like whether it holds leverage or futures.

0:12:15.120 --> 0:12:17.319
<v Speaker 1>There's some legit things on here that I think are

0:12:18.000 --> 0:12:20.880
<v Speaker 1>also eye opening about due diligence on et F. So

0:12:20.960 --> 0:12:24.319
<v Speaker 1>let's talk about them. Alternative tax treatment. So that's the

0:12:24.400 --> 0:12:26.440
<v Speaker 1>first one in the list, So that basically looks at

0:12:26.440 --> 0:12:29.000
<v Speaker 1>anything that has an alternative tax. You invest in futures,

0:12:29.040 --> 0:12:31.079
<v Speaker 1>you have to deal with what's called a K one,

0:12:31.160 --> 0:12:33.599
<v Speaker 1>which can be complicated more paperwork that a lot of

0:12:33.640 --> 0:12:35.840
<v Speaker 1>people don't want to deal with. Um. The other thing

0:12:35.960 --> 0:12:38.600
<v Speaker 1>is something like gold, which is taxed as a collectible,

0:12:38.640 --> 0:12:41.240
<v Speaker 1>which many people don't realize. To invest in a gold ETF,

0:12:41.360 --> 0:12:43.240
<v Speaker 1>you're not actually going to be taxed in the same

0:12:43.280 --> 0:12:45.319
<v Speaker 1>way that you would investing in a normal equity E.

0:12:45.400 --> 0:12:47.400
<v Speaker 1>T F, G L D is a great example because

0:12:47.720 --> 0:12:50.679
<v Speaker 1>other other than that tax issue, it's completely fine. It

0:12:50.760 --> 0:12:53.800
<v Speaker 1>holds the gold, it's does a great job tracking, no problem.

0:12:54.240 --> 0:12:56.600
<v Speaker 1>But if you do sell it, you your taxes. If

0:12:56.640 --> 0:12:58.400
<v Speaker 1>you held like one of those gold plates from you

0:12:58.440 --> 0:13:00.360
<v Speaker 1>know the commercial during Fox News or whatever, you know

0:13:00.400 --> 0:13:03.199
<v Speaker 1>what I mean, where you're actually holding a collectible that

0:13:03.320 --> 0:13:05.480
<v Speaker 1>is a different taxation system and I've heard some investors

0:13:05.520 --> 0:13:08.760
<v Speaker 1>are a little mildly surprised by that green light yellow

0:13:08.960 --> 0:13:13.079
<v Speaker 1>yellow light alternative waiting scheme. So this one is just

0:13:13.160 --> 0:13:16.760
<v Speaker 1>saying that the ETF is waiting its underlying assets by

0:13:16.840 --> 0:13:19.400
<v Speaker 1>something other than market cap. So market cap meaning you're

0:13:19.640 --> 0:13:22.360
<v Speaker 1>it's just a broad investible index like the SMP five hundred,

0:13:22.400 --> 0:13:24.920
<v Speaker 1>But you can get equal weight SMP five hundred, which

0:13:25.000 --> 0:13:27.200
<v Speaker 1>will give you more volatility because it's going to give

0:13:27.240 --> 0:13:29.920
<v Speaker 1>higher weighting to those smaller cap funds are smaller cap act.

0:13:30.240 --> 0:13:32.040
<v Speaker 1>One thing that would fit in this category then would

0:13:32.040 --> 0:13:34.560
<v Speaker 1>be smart beta e t f s, which had become

0:13:34.640 --> 0:13:37.679
<v Speaker 1>really popular lately, and we haven't really talked about them yet,

0:13:37.679 --> 0:13:39.920
<v Speaker 1>and we will talk about them more. But what is that.

0:13:40.200 --> 0:13:43.280
<v Speaker 1>It's just a fantastic buzzword. But really all it is

0:13:43.360 --> 0:13:46.400
<v Speaker 1>is applying to anything that isn't market cap weighted. So

0:13:46.640 --> 0:13:49.240
<v Speaker 1>if you have the SMP five hundred apples at the top, right,

0:13:49.280 --> 0:13:51.920
<v Speaker 1>and then exon and down you go, the biggest companies

0:13:51.920 --> 0:13:54.040
<v Speaker 1>get the most waiting. Smart Batas says, let's do something different.

0:13:54.120 --> 0:13:57.160
<v Speaker 1>Let's equal weight those stocks, give the smaller ones more voice.

0:13:57.400 --> 0:13:59.880
<v Speaker 1>Let's wait them by their fundamentals. Let's look at stocks

0:13:59.880 --> 0:14:02.680
<v Speaker 1>with lower p s. Let's wait them by the momentum.

0:14:03.080 --> 0:14:04.920
<v Speaker 1>You know, there's all different ways you can wait them.

0:14:05.440 --> 0:14:07.440
<v Speaker 1>So it's a twist on the market cap weighted index,

0:14:07.720 --> 0:14:11.079
<v Speaker 1>but in reality it's actually taking active strategies that have

0:14:11.160 --> 0:14:13.880
<v Speaker 1>worked for many years and converting them into a rules

0:14:13.920 --> 0:14:16.079
<v Speaker 1>based index. So smart BATA sort of fills that void

0:14:16.440 --> 0:14:18.959
<v Speaker 1>between discretionary active where you just do what you want

0:14:19.400 --> 0:14:22.000
<v Speaker 1>and pure passive market cap weighted. We want people to

0:14:22.120 --> 0:14:24.640
<v Speaker 1>know there's something in there that you should probably just

0:14:24.760 --> 0:14:27.040
<v Speaker 1>look at, and that is all smart bait against an

0:14:27.040 --> 0:14:29.440
<v Speaker 1>immediate yellow. Yeah. The other thing to note is that

0:14:29.760 --> 0:14:31.760
<v Speaker 1>none of this nuts is necessarily saying this is a

0:14:31.800 --> 0:14:33.640
<v Speaker 1>bad e t F or this is a bad situation.

0:14:33.720 --> 0:14:36.000
<v Speaker 1>This is just something that to make people aware of

0:14:36.080 --> 0:14:39.600
<v Speaker 1>what's going on. Here's a great example XOP, which is

0:14:39.640 --> 0:14:42.920
<v Speaker 1>the Oil Producers et F. It's equal weighted and it

0:14:43.000 --> 0:14:46.360
<v Speaker 1>has two thirds mid and small caps. It's triple the

0:14:46.480 --> 0:14:51.040
<v Speaker 1>volatility right of x l E, which is the Spider

0:14:51.160 --> 0:14:53.040
<v Speaker 1>Energy et F, which you think those are kind of similar,

0:14:53.080 --> 0:14:56.080
<v Speaker 1>but XLS market cap weighted mostly large caps. This one

0:14:56.280 --> 0:14:58.280
<v Speaker 1>is equal weighted and it's a smaller area of the

0:14:58.360 --> 0:15:01.320
<v Speaker 1>oil energy of the energy area. And that is a

0:15:01.400 --> 0:15:03.200
<v Speaker 1>lot of extra vol right there. You can go up

0:15:03.200 --> 0:15:05.040
<v Speaker 1>and down pretty fast an x OP. That's why it

0:15:05.040 --> 0:15:08.080
<v Speaker 1>gets a yellow. Next factor that you guys looked at

0:15:08.240 --> 0:15:11.920
<v Speaker 1>potential NAV tracking issues, So how do how do you

0:15:12.000 --> 0:15:14.840
<v Speaker 1>guys factor this in? So? So NAV is the just

0:15:15.000 --> 0:15:18.120
<v Speaker 1>basically the underlying value of what the fund is actually holding.

0:15:18.200 --> 0:15:20.120
<v Speaker 1>So an E t F has a NAV and the price.

0:15:20.680 --> 0:15:22.640
<v Speaker 1>Um so when you buy your buying at the price,

0:15:22.720 --> 0:15:24.480
<v Speaker 1>you're not buying at the NAV. So what you expect

0:15:24.520 --> 0:15:26.480
<v Speaker 1>in a passively managed e t F. For really, any

0:15:26.520 --> 0:15:28.640
<v Speaker 1>E t F you expect to be buying at a

0:15:28.920 --> 0:15:31.040
<v Speaker 1>value that where the price is equal to the NAV.

0:15:31.480 --> 0:15:34.440
<v Speaker 1>So any e t F where there's some discrepancy between

0:15:34.480 --> 0:15:36.720
<v Speaker 1>the price and the NAV over extended periods of time,

0:15:37.160 --> 0:15:39.960
<v Speaker 1>that's unexpected losses. So even if you're talking only a

0:15:40.040 --> 0:15:43.960
<v Speaker 1>couple of basis points or percentages of percentage points, it

0:15:44.040 --> 0:15:46.280
<v Speaker 1>can really affect your return. And what does NAV stand for?

0:15:46.800 --> 0:15:49.560
<v Speaker 1>Net asset value? It's basically what you know the Kelly

0:15:49.600 --> 0:15:54.160
<v Speaker 1>blue Book. Yeah, it's what the value of those stocks

0:15:54.200 --> 0:15:57.480
<v Speaker 1>are worth. So everybody wants to buy something close to

0:15:57.560 --> 0:16:00.120
<v Speaker 1>that Kelly blue Book value, right or until you're are

0:16:00.160 --> 0:16:02.240
<v Speaker 1>for it. Yeah, there you go. That is sort of

0:16:02.360 --> 0:16:05.000
<v Speaker 1>what the NAV is is a metaphor, but ultimately you

0:16:05.080 --> 0:16:06.400
<v Speaker 1>want to be close to it. And that's what people

0:16:06.400 --> 0:16:08.320
<v Speaker 1>love about ETS is it the price that you that

0:16:08.440 --> 0:16:11.040
<v Speaker 1>it trades at is close to the NAV because if

0:16:11.080 --> 0:16:12.840
<v Speaker 1>it gets out of whack, people can come in and

0:16:12.920 --> 0:16:15.680
<v Speaker 1>arbitrage the difference. That's what you don't have in closed

0:16:15.760 --> 0:16:17.720
<v Speaker 1>end funds, and people don't like those for that reason.

0:16:18.120 --> 0:16:19.800
<v Speaker 1>The other part of this is think about what an

0:16:19.840 --> 0:16:22.360
<v Speaker 1>e t F sole mission in life is is the

0:16:22.440 --> 0:16:25.320
<v Speaker 1>track and index. So we're also gonna dig it. If

0:16:25.320 --> 0:16:27.160
<v Speaker 1>it doesn't do a good job at that, we want

0:16:27.160 --> 0:16:30.520
<v Speaker 1>to let you know because arguably the distance between the

0:16:30.560 --> 0:16:34.080
<v Speaker 1>index return and the ETS return is really the total cost.

0:16:34.560 --> 0:16:37.400
<v Speaker 1>The expense ratio comes out of that, and then sometimes

0:16:37.440 --> 0:16:39.440
<v Speaker 1>they do a little better of the expense ratio, sometimes

0:16:39.480 --> 0:16:41.400
<v Speaker 1>they do worse. We're trying to capture that to make

0:16:41.400 --> 0:16:44.400
<v Speaker 1>sure you know there's actually some extra tracking costs in

0:16:44.520 --> 0:16:46.200
<v Speaker 1>here that you're going to have to pay for it.

0:16:46.440 --> 0:16:51.560
<v Speaker 1>Next fund is actively managed because there are actively managed

0:16:52.040 --> 0:16:55.760
<v Speaker 1>t yees, So especially on the fixed income side, there's

0:16:55.760 --> 0:16:57.960
<v Speaker 1>a there's a lot, there's a significant assets on that

0:16:58.000 --> 0:17:00.960
<v Speaker 1>are actively managed, meaning there's there's a fund manager actually

0:17:01.000 --> 0:17:03.800
<v Speaker 1>going in there and picking specific securities. It's growing in

0:17:03.840 --> 0:17:06.879
<v Speaker 1>popularity on the equity side and basically all over ets,

0:17:06.920 --> 0:17:08.840
<v Speaker 1>but it's still a very small aspect of the e

0:17:08.880 --> 0:17:12.000
<v Speaker 1>t F market. And these are big name bond guys, right, Yeah,

0:17:12.040 --> 0:17:13.840
<v Speaker 1>You've got people like Jeffrey Gunlock, and then you have

0:17:14.119 --> 0:17:18.439
<v Speaker 1>people double Line exactly and Pimco. There's a lot of active,

0:17:18.520 --> 0:17:21.760
<v Speaker 1>big bond asset managers that have e t s. It's

0:17:21.800 --> 0:17:24.160
<v Speaker 1>not bad to be active in an e t F. However,

0:17:24.400 --> 0:17:27.600
<v Speaker 1>sometimes people assume it's all passive. Again, it's just to

0:17:27.680 --> 0:17:29.639
<v Speaker 1>alert you that this is a this is an e

0:17:29.720 --> 0:17:31.760
<v Speaker 1>t F where the manager is doing whatever they want

0:17:32.240 --> 0:17:36.320
<v Speaker 1>and you just should know that. Right. Hidden fees, So

0:17:36.440 --> 0:17:38.240
<v Speaker 1>this one gets a little complicated. There's a lot of

0:17:38.280 --> 0:17:41.679
<v Speaker 1>different ways that e t f s can have hidden fees, right. So, Um,

0:17:41.920 --> 0:17:43.400
<v Speaker 1>one of the big things that people have been talking

0:17:43.400 --> 0:17:46.640
<v Speaker 1>about are these interest rate hedge gtfs. So what they're

0:17:46.640 --> 0:17:48.239
<v Speaker 1>doing is they're trying to hedge out the risk from

0:17:48.359 --> 0:17:51.359
<v Speaker 1>rising interest rates. Um, But there's costs in shorting that

0:17:51.440 --> 0:17:54.159
<v Speaker 1>You're you're paying the cost in whatever the interest rate

0:17:54.280 --> 0:17:57.480
<v Speaker 1>is to short the interest rate. So look, there's a

0:17:57.520 --> 0:17:59.800
<v Speaker 1>lot of ets that I call package trades. They go

0:18:00.040 --> 0:18:02.960
<v Speaker 1>longness and short that right and there are which is

0:18:03.040 --> 0:18:05.680
<v Speaker 1>kind of phenomenal when you think about that yellow. But

0:18:06.000 --> 0:18:08.920
<v Speaker 1>arguably the reason those get yellow is because there have

0:18:09.040 --> 0:18:11.800
<v Speaker 1>hidden costs the shorting. When you short, you gotta pay,

0:18:11.800 --> 0:18:14.000
<v Speaker 1>You gotta pay for that. So what's the degree of that.

0:18:14.119 --> 0:18:15.720
<v Speaker 1>We want to let you know that that's what it is.

0:18:15.880 --> 0:18:18.240
<v Speaker 1>There's also hidden fees, and like um funds that own

0:18:18.320 --> 0:18:21.800
<v Speaker 1>other funds, there's acquired fund fees that that aren't reported

0:18:21.800 --> 0:18:24.760
<v Speaker 1>all the times, like the really superfine print at the body. Yes,

0:18:24.880 --> 0:18:28.800
<v Speaker 1>and there's mlpts which have these incredibly awful taxation issues.

0:18:29.359 --> 0:18:31.840
<v Speaker 1>We throw all that in into hidden fees that aren't

0:18:31.880 --> 0:18:35.439
<v Speaker 1>necessarily reported in the expense ratio. By the way, how

0:18:35.520 --> 0:18:37.440
<v Speaker 1>many e t f s have you guys put through

0:18:37.480 --> 0:18:41.320
<v Speaker 1>this gauntlet? So basically when we start, we we look

0:18:41.359 --> 0:18:42.960
<v Speaker 1>for e t f that have at least one year

0:18:43.000 --> 0:18:45.040
<v Speaker 1>of history, so we can say that they've been trading

0:18:45.160 --> 0:18:46.800
<v Speaker 1>or alive for one year and they have at least

0:18:46.840 --> 0:18:50.760
<v Speaker 1>fifty million dollars in assets right now, we're just overtfs

0:18:50.760 --> 0:18:53.879
<v Speaker 1>are classified. Those are that's going to be the assets

0:18:53.920 --> 0:18:56.199
<v Speaker 1>and volume. However, we might expand it. If we get

0:18:56.280 --> 0:18:58.399
<v Speaker 1>some traction on this, we may just rate them when

0:18:58.440 --> 0:19:00.560
<v Speaker 1>they come out like a movie. Um, and you know

0:19:00.640 --> 0:19:02.280
<v Speaker 1>that way people know what they're getting into right away.

0:19:02.280 --> 0:19:03.920
<v Speaker 1>We wouldn't be able to some of these won't be

0:19:04.119 --> 0:19:07.280
<v Speaker 1>will be moot because you need uh you know, history.

0:19:08.119 --> 0:19:10.840
<v Speaker 1>But some of these you could write right away. Credit risk.

0:19:11.200 --> 0:19:13.240
<v Speaker 1>So this is directly related to what we talked about

0:19:13.240 --> 0:19:15.760
<v Speaker 1>before with exchange traded notes. Exchange traded notes have a

0:19:15.840 --> 0:19:19.560
<v Speaker 1>credit risk, their unsecured dead obligations issued by big banks,

0:19:19.640 --> 0:19:23.320
<v Speaker 1>credit suee ubs, uh, you name it. There's another one,

0:19:23.600 --> 0:19:26.000
<v Speaker 1>less liquid holdings. Yeah. So there was debate on what

0:19:26.080 --> 0:19:27.639
<v Speaker 1>we wanted to call this because we didn't really want

0:19:27.640 --> 0:19:29.520
<v Speaker 1>to call it a liquid holdings because if the holdings

0:19:29.560 --> 0:19:31.560
<v Speaker 1>were truly a liquid then there really wouldn't be an

0:19:31.560 --> 0:19:34.600
<v Speaker 1>e t F. But um, there are plenty of assets

0:19:34.680 --> 0:19:36.520
<v Speaker 1>that have been wrapped in the e t F rapper

0:19:36.640 --> 0:19:39.840
<v Speaker 1>that are considered less liquid. So you've got high yield

0:19:39.880 --> 0:19:42.280
<v Speaker 1>dead instruments such as bank loans or high yield corporate

0:19:42.320 --> 0:19:44.280
<v Speaker 1>bonds which don't really trade that off in E t

0:19:44.400 --> 0:19:47.240
<v Speaker 1>F trades multiples of times more per day than the

0:19:47.320 --> 0:19:50.520
<v Speaker 1>underlying assets. You also have things like frontier markets like

0:19:50.840 --> 0:19:55.000
<v Speaker 1>Vietnam Um where the equity doesn't trade nearly as much

0:19:55.080 --> 0:19:57.720
<v Speaker 1>as something like a U S stock. The high yield

0:19:57.760 --> 0:19:59.680
<v Speaker 1>bond area is really what we wanted to capture this

0:19:59.720 --> 0:20:02.480
<v Speaker 1>because I've always said H y G and J and K,

0:20:02.600 --> 0:20:05.280
<v Speaker 1>the two junk bond E t F r PG, they

0:20:05.359 --> 0:20:07.399
<v Speaker 1>hold what they hold. I mean, they're along the bonds.

0:20:07.400 --> 0:20:10.080
<v Speaker 1>There's nothing, there's no derivatives, nothing weird. But let's just

0:20:10.160 --> 0:20:12.239
<v Speaker 1>face it, they're holding something that doesn't trade a lot

0:20:12.520 --> 0:20:14.719
<v Speaker 1>only about I don't know, less than half the bonds

0:20:14.760 --> 0:20:17.280
<v Speaker 1>trade every day inside H y G. It's traded over

0:20:17.320 --> 0:20:20.080
<v Speaker 1>the counter. And there's a lot of people concerned about this,

0:20:20.240 --> 0:20:22.440
<v Speaker 1>so we want to make sure that we're sensitive to

0:20:22.480 --> 0:20:25.359
<v Speaker 1>that concern. But to me, they're not, like, don't ever

0:20:25.520 --> 0:20:28.720
<v Speaker 1>use them. But this is perfect yellow light PG. Thirteen area.

0:20:28.960 --> 0:20:31.320
<v Speaker 1>Good advice is always to be if if you're looking

0:20:31.359 --> 0:20:33.200
<v Speaker 1>at an E t F and you wouldn't invest in

0:20:33.280 --> 0:20:35.760
<v Speaker 1>the underlying asset or what it's tracking, you probably shouldn't

0:20:35.800 --> 0:20:37.280
<v Speaker 1>be investing in the t F because it's just an

0:20:37.280 --> 0:20:40.200
<v Speaker 1>instrument to get access to those markets that probably should

0:20:40.200 --> 0:20:42.560
<v Speaker 1>be at the top of everybody's you know et F

0:20:42.640 --> 0:20:45.680
<v Speaker 1>due diligence guide. That is so true. You're outsourcing the

0:20:45.800 --> 0:20:48.520
<v Speaker 1>work of going to do it yourself, but doesn't change

0:20:48.560 --> 0:20:53.239
<v Speaker 1>the underlying especially when you add something like leverage. Right,

0:20:53.560 --> 0:20:56.560
<v Speaker 1>what's leverage? So leverage in the e t F space

0:20:56.760 --> 0:21:00.920
<v Speaker 1>is primarily done through swaps and derivatives and really complicated instruments.

0:21:01.000 --> 0:21:02.719
<v Speaker 1>But what they'll do is they'll do the same thing

0:21:02.840 --> 0:21:04.879
<v Speaker 1>as most ETFs, will try to track an index, but

0:21:05.400 --> 0:21:07.800
<v Speaker 1>they're daily leverage, right, So it's gonna look at the

0:21:07.840 --> 0:21:09.800
<v Speaker 1>e t F or the index. So, for example, the

0:21:09.920 --> 0:21:12.359
<v Speaker 1>SMP five hundred, if the SMP five hundred goes up

0:21:12.920 --> 0:21:16.240
<v Speaker 1>five and this is a three three x levered e

0:21:16.400 --> 0:21:19.239
<v Speaker 1>t F that day, that e t F should go up.

0:21:20.560 --> 0:21:23.520
<v Speaker 1>And they're also inverse leverage, so if it's three times inverse,

0:21:23.680 --> 0:21:26.760
<v Speaker 1>it will go down. So not only do you have

0:21:26.960 --> 0:21:29.800
<v Speaker 1>this wildly volatile area, but these are swap agreements, so

0:21:29.880 --> 0:21:33.120
<v Speaker 1>there's some counterparty risk there. This is a company going

0:21:33.200 --> 0:21:35.680
<v Speaker 1>to different banks sort of like the guys in the

0:21:35.720 --> 0:21:38.320
<v Speaker 1>Big short to get the subprime mortgage, and they're saying,

0:21:38.520 --> 0:21:40.600
<v Speaker 1>let's just do a swap agreement on the side. The

0:21:40.640 --> 0:21:42.720
<v Speaker 1>good news is they use several so if one bank

0:21:42.720 --> 0:21:44.479
<v Speaker 1>were to blow up, there's other ones there and they

0:21:44.760 --> 0:21:47.480
<v Speaker 1>reset them all the time, so they're always mixing it up.

0:21:48.080 --> 0:21:50.439
<v Speaker 1>That said, the real issue though, is that you can

0:21:50.480 --> 0:21:52.080
<v Speaker 1>go up and down a lot in today, Like you know,

0:21:52.160 --> 0:21:54.639
<v Speaker 1>we look at something like a triple leveraged gold miners

0:21:54.680 --> 0:21:56.320
<v Speaker 1>back to that one that can go up fifteen percent

0:21:56.359 --> 0:21:59.720
<v Speaker 1>in a day, we're down, And there's been evidence that

0:21:59.840 --> 0:22:01.920
<v Speaker 1>like on tam Mary trade. You know, there's some individual

0:22:01.920 --> 0:22:04.760
<v Speaker 1>investors who use these things. This should be a total

0:22:04.840 --> 0:22:07.719
<v Speaker 1>red light simply because of the fact of the leverage.

0:22:07.760 --> 0:22:09.720
<v Speaker 1>But then on top of that, when you reset the

0:22:09.800 --> 0:22:13.080
<v Speaker 1>leverage every day, if there's volatility, you're resetting all over

0:22:13.160 --> 0:22:16.159
<v Speaker 1>the place, and so over the long term, that volatility

0:22:16.200 --> 0:22:18.160
<v Speaker 1>drag will wipe you out. So even if the index

0:22:18.200 --> 0:22:20.920
<v Speaker 1>had gone up in that year that volatility, you could

0:22:20.960 --> 0:22:23.320
<v Speaker 1>be down if you bought and hold it. So leverage

0:22:23.320 --> 0:22:28.080
<v Speaker 1>GTF should be treated like hot potatoes. They traded power tools, Yeah,

0:22:28.119 --> 0:22:31.920
<v Speaker 1>you could lose a hand um dangerously. Low volume was

0:22:32.000 --> 0:22:34.600
<v Speaker 1>one that we can talk about if it's got low

0:22:34.920 --> 0:22:38.240
<v Speaker 1>low volume things not trading. So I I feel bad

0:22:38.280 --> 0:22:41.600
<v Speaker 1>because there's this volume addiction. If it trades a lot,

0:22:41.680 --> 0:22:43.159
<v Speaker 1>people just trade it more and they think that's what

0:22:43.200 --> 0:22:45.440
<v Speaker 1>they should do. But you have this opposite problem where

0:22:45.480 --> 0:22:47.560
<v Speaker 1>like the lesser liquid ones have such a hard problem

0:22:47.640 --> 0:22:50.080
<v Speaker 1>getting like an audience. It's like a party. Nobody's at

0:22:50.840 --> 0:22:56.680
<v Speaker 1>um those you could I'm just picturing your whole high

0:22:56.680 --> 0:23:02.200
<v Speaker 1>school years right now. Hi guys, Okay, sorry that was

0:23:02.560 --> 0:23:04.520
<v Speaker 1>too hardy of a laugh. I'd like you more than that.

0:23:04.680 --> 0:23:08.800
<v Speaker 1>Um listen. Dangerously low volume. Isn't that you can't trade them?

0:23:09.400 --> 0:23:12.120
<v Speaker 1>Is that you probably should use a limit order. You should.

0:23:12.119 --> 0:23:14.120
<v Speaker 1>You don't just put a market order in because when

0:23:14.119 --> 0:23:16.200
<v Speaker 1>they're low volume, a lot of times the spread on

0:23:16.280 --> 0:23:18.720
<v Speaker 1>the screen will be a little wider, meaning what somebody

0:23:18.720 --> 0:23:20.880
<v Speaker 1>will pay versus what they'll sell. That's the spread that's

0:23:20.880 --> 0:23:22.600
<v Speaker 1>sort of like your toll going in and out of it.

0:23:23.080 --> 0:23:24.640
<v Speaker 1>So you can put a limit order in the middle

0:23:24.680 --> 0:23:27.040
<v Speaker 1>of that though, and actually get a price. They put

0:23:27.119 --> 0:23:29.160
<v Speaker 1>the wide spreads on those lesser liquid ones. So that's

0:23:29.240 --> 0:23:31.480
<v Speaker 1>really the warning there. But I would you know, open

0:23:31.600 --> 0:23:33.159
<v Speaker 1>up the door to people, because if you just go

0:23:33.320 --> 0:23:36.240
<v Speaker 1>to the highly liquid et s, you're essentially trading stuff

0:23:36.280 --> 0:23:38.520
<v Speaker 1>that came out in the nineties, might not be the cheapest,

0:23:38.720 --> 0:23:40.920
<v Speaker 1>might not be the best exposure, So you do want

0:23:40.960 --> 0:23:43.320
<v Speaker 1>to maybe look deeper in the toolbox. But if you

0:23:43.359 --> 0:23:45.760
<v Speaker 1>see yellow dangerously low volume, really that should just tell

0:23:45.800 --> 0:23:48.119
<v Speaker 1>you that, Okay, let me just be careful trading it.

0:23:48.280 --> 0:23:50.960
<v Speaker 1>Let me buy using a limit order. And by the way,

0:23:51.119 --> 0:23:53.800
<v Speaker 1>if something has low volume and you're worried about it closing,

0:23:53.880 --> 0:23:56.680
<v Speaker 1>it can close. But with E t F s you

0:23:56.760 --> 0:23:58.840
<v Speaker 1>don't lose all your money. Not E t N you can.

0:23:58.920 --> 0:24:01.120
<v Speaker 1>That's the credit risk. But any TF holds the security,

0:24:01.160 --> 0:24:03.960
<v Speaker 1>so if it closes, it basically just sends a letter saying, look,

0:24:04.440 --> 0:24:07.720
<v Speaker 1>we this product didn't really work right, Like the waste

0:24:07.760 --> 0:24:09.760
<v Speaker 1>management et F for the fishing, how about the fishing

0:24:09.800 --> 0:24:12.800
<v Speaker 1>ETF holds a bunch of Japanese and Norwegian stocks didn't

0:24:12.800 --> 0:24:14.800
<v Speaker 1>make it, So on the closure date they sell those

0:24:14.800 --> 0:24:16.600
<v Speaker 1>stocks and give you a check for your n a V.

0:24:17.080 --> 0:24:18.639
<v Speaker 1>We should add that most of the ones that got

0:24:18.720 --> 0:24:20.680
<v Speaker 1>dinged with this, we're actually E t N s that

0:24:20.920 --> 0:24:23.320
<v Speaker 1>basically don't trade like less than once a month, So

0:24:23.520 --> 0:24:27.240
<v Speaker 1>we're talking like seriously low volume on the exchanges. Were like, yeah,

0:24:27.240 --> 0:24:29.679
<v Speaker 1>they barely trade at all. How many of those actually

0:24:29.720 --> 0:24:32.960
<v Speaker 1>just end up folding a lot and more should I

0:24:33.000 --> 0:24:34.320
<v Speaker 1>think they should. If if you don't have like a

0:24:34.400 --> 0:24:36.760
<v Speaker 1>trade in your product, like every day at least one trade,

0:24:37.040 --> 0:24:39.720
<v Speaker 1>you should probably just close. I mean that is really

0:24:39.800 --> 0:24:42.320
<v Speaker 1>like ignored. I mean there's even products that are less

0:24:42.320 --> 0:24:44.720
<v Speaker 1>than say ten million dollars trading a day, which many

0:24:44.760 --> 0:24:46.680
<v Speaker 1>of users won't touch. They'll look for at least fifty

0:24:46.720 --> 0:24:48.680
<v Speaker 1>million a day, but that only gets you a hundred

0:24:48.680 --> 0:24:50.800
<v Speaker 1>and sixty ETFs. So then you got to go deeper

0:24:50.840 --> 0:24:53.359
<v Speaker 1>and deeper. But there's probably I don't know four or

0:24:54.040 --> 0:24:58.800
<v Speaker 1>tf that I think we're probably better off just closing. Okay,

0:24:58.840 --> 0:25:02.719
<v Speaker 1>so we've got two more, uh, discount or premium issues

0:25:02.800 --> 0:25:04.440
<v Speaker 1>being one of them. Yes, So we talked about this

0:25:04.480 --> 0:25:07.560
<v Speaker 1>a little bit before with the potential nav tracking errors UM,

0:25:07.920 --> 0:25:11.560
<v Speaker 1>but the discount premium issues take really take into account

0:25:11.560 --> 0:25:15.240
<v Speaker 1>the difference between the NAV and the price. So before

0:25:15.280 --> 0:25:17.120
<v Speaker 1>when we talked about the tracking issues, we were talking

0:25:17.119 --> 0:25:20.119
<v Speaker 1>about performance solely. So over the last year or two

0:25:20.200 --> 0:25:23.520
<v Speaker 1>years or whatever it may be, the index outperformed or

0:25:23.640 --> 0:25:28.719
<v Speaker 1>underperformed the actual e t F. So UM discount premium

0:25:28.760 --> 0:25:31.200
<v Speaker 1>issues just looks at on a given day, say you

0:25:31.320 --> 0:25:34.000
<v Speaker 1>need to sell in a given time period, for example Egypt.

0:25:34.160 --> 0:25:37.640
<v Speaker 1>When Egypt closed down, the market was not trading properly,

0:25:37.720 --> 0:25:39.679
<v Speaker 1>so you didn't know what the actual NAV was. There

0:25:39.800 --> 0:25:41.960
<v Speaker 1>was huge disconnects between the price of the e t

0:25:42.160 --> 0:25:44.600
<v Speaker 1>F and the underlying asset values. These are all things

0:25:44.640 --> 0:25:46.119
<v Speaker 1>that you should be aware of that have happened in

0:25:46.160 --> 0:25:49.040
<v Speaker 1>the past with these ETFs. The discount premium is a

0:25:49.480 --> 0:25:52.560
<v Speaker 1>um It can confuse people. You think discount cheap, premium expensive.

0:25:53.480 --> 0:25:55.480
<v Speaker 1>The word I use as arbitrage band and I know

0:25:55.560 --> 0:26:00.399
<v Speaker 1>that sounds even worse. Basically, basically, how it is it

0:26:00.520 --> 0:26:02.840
<v Speaker 1>before somebody steps in and goes, okay, the price of

0:26:02.840 --> 0:26:04.159
<v Speaker 1>the e t F is drifted away from the NAV

0:26:04.280 --> 0:26:06.240
<v Speaker 1>enough that I'm gonna go by the e t F

0:26:06.320 --> 0:26:09.600
<v Speaker 1>and sell the underlying vice versa. That arbitrageer is only

0:26:09.640 --> 0:26:10.920
<v Speaker 1>going to do it when it's worth it to them.

0:26:11.280 --> 0:26:14.239
<v Speaker 1>So how why does that get before they act? Now,

0:26:14.400 --> 0:26:17.240
<v Speaker 1>it's gonna the more exotic and less liquid the holdings,

0:26:17.359 --> 0:26:21.320
<v Speaker 1>the wider it's gonna get. So the premium discount arguably

0:26:21.560 --> 0:26:24.200
<v Speaker 1>is another cost of access in that market. You're not

0:26:24.240 --> 0:26:26.880
<v Speaker 1>gonna see big premiums discounts on SPY or i VV.

0:26:27.240 --> 0:26:29.280
<v Speaker 1>There's gonna be like a couple of basis points, but

0:26:29.400 --> 0:26:32.040
<v Speaker 1>you will see them on other exotic products. Those will

0:26:32.119 --> 0:26:34.960
<v Speaker 1>definitely go in line with the exotic nous of the holdings.

0:26:35.240 --> 0:26:37.520
<v Speaker 1>So not necessarily bad, it's just something again you need

0:26:37.560 --> 0:26:39.679
<v Speaker 1>to know. And in this case, we we look at

0:26:39.720 --> 0:26:41.560
<v Speaker 1>for two things, right, So we're looking for any time

0:26:41.640 --> 0:26:46.440
<v Speaker 1>there's massive spikes, so we're talking differences between the NAV

0:26:46.720 --> 0:26:48.879
<v Speaker 1>and the price, so that's just to alert you that

0:26:48.960 --> 0:26:51.280
<v Speaker 1>there have been spikes in the past. And then also

0:26:51.400 --> 0:26:54.320
<v Speaker 1>we're looking for an average discount premium over a given

0:26:54.400 --> 0:26:57.720
<v Speaker 1>time period that's relatively high. So over the time period,

0:26:57.800 --> 0:27:00.840
<v Speaker 1>this is never really as close to a NAV as

0:27:01.000 --> 0:27:03.320
<v Speaker 1>say the smp is. And part of that is just

0:27:03.440 --> 0:27:06.000
<v Speaker 1>because of the underlying assets. Like Eric said, if you're

0:27:06.040 --> 0:27:09.000
<v Speaker 1>investing in Japanese equities, uh, they're not trading at the

0:27:09.040 --> 0:27:11.520
<v Speaker 1>same time that US market is trading, so there's a

0:27:11.600 --> 0:27:15.639
<v Speaker 1>little bit less ability to do those arbitrage trading mechanisms. Okay,

0:27:15.720 --> 0:27:18.720
<v Speaker 1>so this last one is like leverage in that it

0:27:18.800 --> 0:27:23.520
<v Speaker 1>can get really thick really quickly. Potential futures, roll costs,

0:27:24.359 --> 0:27:27.000
<v Speaker 1>what's that. Yeah, so this is probably the one that

0:27:27.080 --> 0:27:29.440
<v Speaker 1>I think is the most important because a lot of

0:27:29.480 --> 0:27:32.119
<v Speaker 1>the products that hold futures forget the volatility. I mean

0:27:32.160 --> 0:27:34.639
<v Speaker 1>those sound dangerous. They are dangerous, but like there's an

0:27:34.680 --> 0:27:36.800
<v Speaker 1>et F out there called the United States Oil Fund,

0:27:37.520 --> 0:27:39.560
<v Speaker 1>it sounds pretty innocent. When oil was down a couple

0:27:39.560 --> 0:27:41.000
<v Speaker 1>of years ago, I had friend texting me, how can

0:27:41.040 --> 0:27:43.359
<v Speaker 1>I play the oil rebound? And they were buying USO

0:27:44.359 --> 0:27:47.040
<v Speaker 1>that that that does not really do justice to what

0:27:47.119 --> 0:27:49.680
<v Speaker 1>it does. So when you have to hold oil futures,

0:27:50.040 --> 0:27:52.359
<v Speaker 1>you have to roll them. As the one month gets closer,

0:27:52.480 --> 0:27:55.280
<v Speaker 1>nobody wants oil delivered to their house, So everybody bails

0:27:55.280 --> 0:27:57.920
<v Speaker 1>at that contract and it decays as as as it

0:27:57.960 --> 0:28:00.639
<v Speaker 1>gets closer to when it expires. So then you got

0:28:00.760 --> 0:28:02.800
<v Speaker 1>to sell that one. The e t F has to

0:28:02.840 --> 0:28:04.520
<v Speaker 1>go buy the next one out, which is more expensive.

0:28:04.800 --> 0:28:07.240
<v Speaker 1>When you're selling low and buying high over and over

0:28:07.359 --> 0:28:10.000
<v Speaker 1>and over, something's not gonna work. Yeah, you are corroding

0:28:10.040 --> 0:28:13.920
<v Speaker 1>the returns. So USO will have a we call it

0:28:14.040 --> 0:28:18.359
<v Speaker 1>roll costs of pcent a year. And if it's said

0:28:18.760 --> 0:28:22.120
<v Speaker 1>the United States Oil plus crippling contango roll costs or whatever,

0:28:22.240 --> 0:28:24.720
<v Speaker 1>that would be fine. Maybe wouldn't have to have this system,

0:28:24.920 --> 0:28:30.560
<v Speaker 1>but it doesn't USO, which sounds contain the oil fund. Yeah,

0:28:31.320 --> 0:28:33.800
<v Speaker 1>which you know, bigger meta picture here which we've talked

0:28:33.840 --> 0:28:37.040
<v Speaker 1>about before is that's the ultimate risk with e t

0:28:37.200 --> 0:28:41.000
<v Speaker 1>f s is something can be a wolf in sheep's clothing. Yeah,

0:28:41.120 --> 0:28:44.160
<v Speaker 1>and that is the future's role cost automatic three. We

0:28:44.200 --> 0:28:46.000
<v Speaker 1>don't want anyone to get concerned, you know, to worry

0:28:46.000 --> 0:28:48.240
<v Speaker 1>about this. Plus the taxation. If you hold the ones

0:28:48.320 --> 0:28:51.040
<v Speaker 1>that actually hold futures, you've got different taxation issues. And

0:28:51.120 --> 0:28:53.280
<v Speaker 1>then there's one that leverage on top of that. And

0:28:53.320 --> 0:28:55.080
<v Speaker 1>then some of those are e t n s, So

0:28:55.200 --> 0:28:56.840
<v Speaker 1>those are the ones that actually start adding up and

0:28:56.840 --> 0:29:00.680
<v Speaker 1>get into like eight nine infractions. Not to say that

0:29:00.800 --> 0:29:02.440
<v Speaker 1>some of these e t f s aren't really good

0:29:02.440 --> 0:29:05.040
<v Speaker 1>at what they're doing. For example, if my grandma's investing

0:29:05.320 --> 0:29:07.560
<v Speaker 1>in the markets, she shouldn't be investing in a vix

0:29:07.760 --> 0:29:10.120
<v Speaker 1>e t N. That's as a long term investment. But

0:29:10.160 --> 0:29:12.320
<v Speaker 1>if you're a hedge fund or a trader and you're

0:29:12.320 --> 0:29:15.120
<v Speaker 1>trying to head your volatility, rest of a vix et

0:29:15.280 --> 0:29:17.600
<v Speaker 1>F such as v x X as a really good

0:29:17.920 --> 0:29:20.040
<v Speaker 1>investment for what they're trying to do. And that's what

0:29:20.200 --> 0:29:22.200
<v Speaker 1>the the system is trying to do. It's trying to

0:29:22.280 --> 0:29:24.680
<v Speaker 1>say that this is an alert. You should be aware

0:29:24.680 --> 0:29:26.400
<v Speaker 1>of this um. If you are aware of it and

0:29:26.440 --> 0:29:29.720
<v Speaker 1>you're still okay with it, go ahead. So et F

0:29:29.760 --> 0:29:31.760
<v Speaker 1>stoplight system. Where can I find it? Well, it's on

0:29:31.760 --> 0:29:34.479
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg terminal. That's where James and I publish all

0:29:34.480 --> 0:29:36.880
<v Speaker 1>our research. However, not only can you find it there,

0:29:36.880 --> 0:29:39.400
<v Speaker 1>if you email me, I'll send you a copy of it.

0:29:39.520 --> 0:29:43.040
<v Speaker 1>It's ebal tunists at Bloomberg dot net. And we wanted

0:29:43.080 --> 0:29:45.000
<v Speaker 1>to get out there. It's it's on the terminal. We

0:29:45.080 --> 0:29:46.800
<v Speaker 1>write to it. But it's okay that it goes out.

0:29:46.880 --> 0:29:49.680
<v Speaker 1>It's a simple thing, right, Yeah, it's a universal thing.

0:29:50.000 --> 0:29:52.520
<v Speaker 1>We think that there should be an independent body doing this,

0:29:52.760 --> 0:29:54.920
<v Speaker 1>and maybe not the SEC or the issuers. So I

0:29:54.960 --> 0:29:56.920
<v Speaker 1>think that's uh, there's a need for it. And if

0:29:56.960 --> 0:29:59.880
<v Speaker 1>it's not this system, maybe it'll spark somebody else to

0:29:59.920 --> 0:30:03.200
<v Speaker 1>do it, or people will just get int into thinking

0:30:03.240 --> 0:30:05.760
<v Speaker 1>about e t F s in terms of having nuanced

0:30:05.840 --> 0:30:08.760
<v Speaker 1>or five levels of safe and dangerous and not just

0:30:09.200 --> 0:30:13.560
<v Speaker 1>these are good, these are bad, green, yellow, red. James, Eric,

0:30:13.960 --> 0:30:18.960
<v Speaker 1>thanks thanks for listening to New trillions. Until next time,

0:30:19.040 --> 0:30:21.600
<v Speaker 1>you can find us on the Bloomberg Terminal, Bloomberg dot com,

0:30:22.120 --> 0:30:24.840
<v Speaker 1>Apple Podcast, and a bunch of other places. I probably

0:30:24.840 --> 0:30:26.840
<v Speaker 1>haven't heard that yet. We'd love to hear from you.

0:30:27.120 --> 0:30:31.280
<v Speaker 1>We're on Twitter, I'm at Joel Weber Show, Eric's at

0:30:31.560 --> 0:30:36.200
<v Speaker 1>Eric ball Tunes, James is at j S E y

0:30:36.600 --> 0:30:41.560
<v Speaker 1>f F. Trillions is produced by Magnus Hendrickson with a

0:30:41.720 --> 0:30:45.560
<v Speaker 1>lift from Tofur four as this week, Francesco Levi is

0:30:45.560 --> 0:30:47.160
<v Speaker 1>the head of Bloomberg Podcast, but