1
00:00:03,760 --> 00:00:06,560
Speaker 1: At least. He's The Drive with Dale Lolly and Matt

2
00:00:06,640 --> 00:00:21,079
Speaker 1: Williamson on Home of the Black and Gold Steelers Nation Radio.

3
00:00:23,680 --> 00:00:26,120
Speaker 1: Welcome back to the Drive. I'm Dale Lolly here with

4
00:00:26,239 --> 00:00:31,400
Speaker 1: Matt Williamson and Matt The Football Outsiders Football Almanac is

5
00:00:31,440 --> 00:00:34,720
Speaker 1: out out next Monday. We'll have Aaron Schatz, the editor

6
00:00:35,040 --> 00:00:38,360
Speaker 1: of Football Outsiders. Uh, yes, almanac on. But I did

7
00:00:38,400 --> 00:00:40,360
Speaker 1: want to talk about a couple of things that were

8
00:00:40,440 --> 00:00:43,919
Speaker 1: in this Uh. They had their full one projections for

9
00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:47,600
Speaker 1: each team. And I love the almanac. It's like Christmas

10
00:00:47,640 --> 00:00:50,320
Speaker 1: Morning for me. When I wanted to go over some

11
00:00:50,360 --> 00:00:52,320
Speaker 1: of these things, I wanted to go over win totals

12
00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:56,360
Speaker 1: and their their dv oh A projections for this year.

13
00:00:57,120 --> 00:01:02,360
Speaker 1: Um so in terms of average its wins. Uh. Their

14
00:01:02,480 --> 00:01:05,000
Speaker 1: leader in the clubhouses Tampa Bay at eleven point one,

15
00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:08,160
Speaker 1: totally understand it. They got Baltimore number two at ten

16
00:01:08,200 --> 00:01:11,880
Speaker 1: points really high on Baltimore, Kansas City three at ten

17
00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:17,560
Speaker 1: point five, Buffalo third at ten point two. New England

18
00:01:18,520 --> 00:01:21,080
Speaker 1: up next at nine point eight. Now the reason for

19
00:01:21,120 --> 00:01:25,039
Speaker 1: that is if you look at New England's schedule, uh,

20
00:01:25,080 --> 00:01:28,720
Speaker 1: it's thirty second. I say, it's pretty easy. Yeah, and

21
00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:33,039
Speaker 1: there's different metrics for you know, judging scheduled strength and

22
00:01:33,040 --> 00:01:34,880
Speaker 1: and and they are projections. You don't know how good

23
00:01:34,880 --> 00:01:36,600
Speaker 1: these teams are gona be Week ten when you face

24
00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:38,399
Speaker 1: them and you know, as their quarterback will be heard

25
00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:40,680
Speaker 1: or you know the coach would be fired by then

26
00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:42,760
Speaker 1: or whatever, or you can play them on a Wednesday

27
00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:45,199
Speaker 1: after COVID hits. I mean, there's crazy things that happened,

28
00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:47,560
Speaker 1: but you still gotta take that stuff in the consideration.

29
00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:49,440
Speaker 1: And football Side has been doing this a long time

30
00:01:49,520 --> 00:01:52,880
Speaker 1: and they're pretty don good at projecting win totals. UH

31
00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:56,320
Speaker 1: Seattle and San Francisco tied next from nine point seven

32
00:01:56,320 --> 00:01:58,800
Speaker 1: wins each. Sam Franz another one has a very easy

33
00:01:58,840 --> 00:02:01,440
Speaker 1: schedule by a lot of these match UH. New Orleans

34
00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:04,440
Speaker 1: comes in at nine point five. I don't know. I

35
00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:06,160
Speaker 1: don't know if I trust that. I don't know that

36
00:02:06,200 --> 00:02:08,680
Speaker 1: I do either, but I do think it's interesting that

37
00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:15,160
Speaker 1: you've mentioned Seattle, New England, New Orleans, and Baltimore, and

38
00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:18,680
Speaker 1: that maybe exceeds some of our expectations because my point

39
00:02:18,800 --> 00:02:21,760
Speaker 1: is those coaches, and I think Tomlin's obviously on that

40
00:02:21,800 --> 00:02:24,720
Speaker 1: tier too, where those coaches have won a lot of

41
00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:27,320
Speaker 1: games in this league, they're gonna be in the Hall

42
00:02:27,360 --> 00:02:30,800
Speaker 1: of Fame or in the conversation. I wouldn't sleep on

43
00:02:30,840 --> 00:02:34,160
Speaker 1: the Saints just because of Peyton and they're a fragile

44
00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:38,280
Speaker 1: roster build because boy, they they've had a lot of

45
00:02:38,600 --> 00:02:41,040
Speaker 1: let a lot of people go because of their cap constraints,

46
00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:44,280
Speaker 1: and strangely, their last two drafts they've only picked like

47
00:02:44,320 --> 00:02:48,720
Speaker 1: four guys any draft, right, I mean, they're all in.

48
00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:52,600
Speaker 1: Dallas is next at nine point two, but maybe you're

49
00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:58,200
Speaker 1: picking that division. No, I'm picking Washington Torn I mean,

50
00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:00,560
Speaker 1: their defense is almost in that conver station. Like we

51
00:03:00,600 --> 00:03:04,960
Speaker 1: had last segment about like Brown's D. Steelers line just

52
00:03:05,000 --> 00:03:07,680
Speaker 1: don't stink D. But I'm not sure that they won't

53
00:03:07,680 --> 00:03:13,200
Speaker 1: stink on D. They might really. Uh, Minnesota comes in

54
00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:15,639
Speaker 1: at nine point one, as do the Rams. I think

55
00:03:15,639 --> 00:03:18,160
Speaker 1: Minnesota's a sneaky bet to win that division right now.

56
00:03:18,200 --> 00:03:20,079
Speaker 1: I mean, if Rogers doesn't come back, I think they're

57
00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:23,080
Speaker 1: easily they're easily, right, I don't know if he's coming back.

58
00:03:23,639 --> 00:03:27,000
Speaker 1: Miami then comes in at nine pot. Oh, oh, that's

59
00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:29,440
Speaker 1: a little I would bet the under on that. Yeah,

60
00:03:30,200 --> 00:03:33,400
Speaker 1: Denver at eight point eight, tie with the Steelers at

61
00:03:33,440 --> 00:03:37,160
Speaker 1: eight point eight. I respect what Denver has and they

62
00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:41,560
Speaker 1: could be a little bit. They play EASi according to

63
00:03:41,600 --> 00:03:47,560
Speaker 1: football outsiders, so it's an easy scutter hard there. We

64
00:03:47,640 --> 00:03:52,360
Speaker 1: often talk about the Bucks last year with just give

65
00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:54,480
Speaker 1: me a quarterback that doesn't turn it over a million times.

66
00:03:54,840 --> 00:03:57,080
Speaker 1: Their turnovers last year were the worst in the league

67
00:03:57,160 --> 00:03:59,800
Speaker 1: by a really long shot. But Teddy Bridgewater is not

68
00:03:59,880 --> 00:04:03,320
Speaker 1: the guy. Well he won't turn it over. Here's the thing.

69
00:04:03,920 --> 00:04:08,160
Speaker 1: I saw a stat on him where they had the

70
00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:12,600
Speaker 1: football down a touchdown or less seven times last year

71
00:04:12,640 --> 00:04:14,440
Speaker 1: when he was with the Panthers in the fourth quarters

72
00:04:14,480 --> 00:04:18,560
Speaker 1: gone and they won none of them. He is, he's

73
00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:20,280
Speaker 1: got for us. I mean we've said this many many tings.

74
00:04:20,320 --> 00:04:23,400
Speaker 1: Won't take any chances, doesn't take any chances. But I

75
00:04:23,440 --> 00:04:26,320
Speaker 1: do think that roster with a defensive minded coach and

76
00:04:26,480 --> 00:04:31,120
Speaker 1: Munchak and weapons could get the eight ish wins by

77
00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:34,680
Speaker 1: not screwing it up. But can they get higher than eight?

78
00:04:34,720 --> 00:04:36,440
Speaker 1: And it's not going to get you into the playoffs.

79
00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:40,000
Speaker 1: And I'm im sure Bridge wins the job. The other thing,

80
00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:43,120
Speaker 1: but it really sums up Bridgewater is if you look

81
00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:47,720
Speaker 1: at his record versus the spread in his career, he's

82
00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:50,360
Speaker 1: a great guy to bet on because every game he's

83
00:04:50,360 --> 00:04:52,880
Speaker 1: a dog because the quarterback of their side better. But

84
00:04:52,960 --> 00:04:55,520
Speaker 1: he keeps it close just enough to not win. You

85
00:04:55,560 --> 00:04:59,560
Speaker 1: know what I mean. He doesn't beat you. He doesn't

86
00:04:59,560 --> 00:05:01,279
Speaker 1: win the game for you, and you need your quarterback

87
00:05:01,320 --> 00:05:04,039
Speaker 1: to win the game exactly. Yeah, if it's Teddy plus five,

88
00:05:04,160 --> 00:05:07,400
Speaker 1: well he gets he loses by four, you win your bed.

89
00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:11,400
Speaker 1: As I mentioned, the Steelers come in at eight point

90
00:05:11,480 --> 00:05:15,159
Speaker 1: eight wins as well. Okay, that's thirteenth best in the league.

91
00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:19,279
Speaker 1: I think that's higher than their Vegas it's definitely, and

92
00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:21,800
Speaker 1: that's what the Steelers having. According to Football Outside, there's

93
00:05:21,800 --> 00:05:24,839
Speaker 1: the number two schedule and everybody says it's most difficult.

94
00:05:24,880 --> 00:05:27,280
Speaker 1: Everybody says that they have the hardest schedule. They have

95
00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:29,360
Speaker 1: the Bears with the hardest schedule, and they measure dv

96
00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:31,960
Speaker 1: O warn sharp as the Raiders at one and the

97
00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:35,119
Speaker 1: Steelers at two. It's a tough it's a tough sled.

98
00:05:35,200 --> 00:05:38,040
Speaker 1: I mean, it hurts more now than it did a

99
00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:40,880
Speaker 1: year ago. To be the first place team. You know,

100
00:05:40,880 --> 00:05:44,200
Speaker 1: you're get one more extra game of first placed opponents.

101
00:05:44,320 --> 00:05:48,719
Speaker 1: Indianapolis comes into eight point seven. Sounds about right. Cleveland

102
00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:52,360
Speaker 1: at eight point six, which everybody's all over the Browns

103
00:05:53,040 --> 00:05:56,560
Speaker 1: this year except for the Except for a lot of

104
00:05:56,560 --> 00:05:59,960
Speaker 1: the analytics people Football Outsiders doesn't think it's closed between

105
00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:06,600
Speaker 1: leveling in Baltimore. No, Um, you know they had some

106
00:06:06,680 --> 00:06:09,560
Speaker 1: issues last year. Uh, we'll go over with all the

107
00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:11,120
Speaker 1: d v o A rankings here in a little bit,

108
00:06:11,120 --> 00:06:12,720
Speaker 1: once I get through all the wind totals. I mean,

109
00:06:12,720 --> 00:06:15,000
Speaker 1: the Browns were outscored last year. They gave about more

110
00:06:15,000 --> 00:06:17,960
Speaker 1: points than they scored last year. It's a big indicator.

111
00:06:18,760 --> 00:06:21,720
Speaker 1: Las Vegas at eight point two, I'm taking under on that.

112
00:06:22,160 --> 00:06:25,760
Speaker 1: Tennessee at eight point two. They're of all little team

113
00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:28,720
Speaker 1: as well, but it could go well. Washington at eight

114
00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:31,960
Speaker 1: point one, Okay, I think there's I don't dis like

115
00:06:32,040 --> 00:06:34,640
Speaker 1: your call about them win in the division. Arizona at

116
00:06:34,680 --> 00:06:37,520
Speaker 1: seven point nine. I think this might be Kingsbury's last year.

117
00:06:38,120 --> 00:06:41,320
Speaker 1: Cincinnati it's seven point five. That's really high. That's high

118
00:06:41,360 --> 00:06:46,400
Speaker 1: for them. Yeah, it is the Giants at seven point four, okay, Chicago,

119
00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:51,680
Speaker 1: the Chargers in Philadelphia all at seven point three. You

120
00:06:51,720 --> 00:06:53,760
Speaker 1: don't think of those teams all on the same No,

121
00:06:54,040 --> 00:06:55,760
Speaker 1: you don't see those guys lumped together at all. And

122
00:06:55,880 --> 00:06:59,200
Speaker 1: Chicago is the playoff team last year. Detroit at seven

123
00:06:59,200 --> 00:07:02,679
Speaker 1: point two. Food, I'll go under that. Caroline at seven

124
00:07:02,720 --> 00:07:06,599
Speaker 1: point one, Yeah, it's probably about right. Atlanta at seven

125
00:07:06,600 --> 00:07:09,840
Speaker 1: point one. They were one of those teams. They were

126
00:07:09,840 --> 00:07:12,320
Speaker 1: real big on Pythagoran win theorys and stuff like that too.

127
00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:16,160
Speaker 1: Atlanta was the team that should have won. They played

128
00:07:16,160 --> 00:07:18,360
Speaker 1: well enough to win seven games last year, and they

129
00:07:18,400 --> 00:07:20,600
Speaker 1: end up winning four or five or whatever. They lost

130
00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:23,600
Speaker 1: a lot of close ones and hurt themselves a lot too.

131
00:07:23,800 --> 00:07:28,960
Speaker 1: Jacksonville seven point oh could they win that division? What

132
00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:32,920
Speaker 1: if when stinks and Henry gets hurt? Both the things

133
00:07:32,920 --> 00:07:35,640
Speaker 1: that are very possible. I don't see. Still don't see.

134
00:07:36,160 --> 00:07:38,640
Speaker 1: But I still think the Colts roster is good enough

135
00:07:38,680 --> 00:07:42,160
Speaker 1: to get them enough. Maybe it's only eight wins. Somebody

136
00:07:42,200 --> 00:07:46,280
Speaker 1: they get in eight nine. But I don't see how

137
00:07:46,360 --> 00:07:50,880
Speaker 1: Jacksonville wins seven games, to be honest with you, the

138
00:07:50,960 --> 00:07:53,040
Speaker 1: defense is pretty bad and it's just such a work

139
00:07:53,040 --> 00:07:55,200
Speaker 1: in progress. I say that they have the thirty first

140
00:07:55,240 --> 00:07:57,480
Speaker 1: easiest schedule. I know they have an easy schedule, but

141
00:07:58,160 --> 00:08:00,640
Speaker 1: Houston comes in at six point seven. I'm going under

142
00:08:00,680 --> 00:08:03,320
Speaker 1: on that they play the easiest schedule, and and they

143
00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:05,360
Speaker 1: don't get to play themselves. Think about how easy that

144
00:08:05,400 --> 00:08:07,280
Speaker 1: schedule is. I mean they played a last place schedule.

145
00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:08,880
Speaker 1: I get it, but they don't have any time. That's

146
00:08:08,880 --> 00:08:11,200
Speaker 1: a crazy thing. And then the Jets are six point one.

147
00:08:11,280 --> 00:08:14,040
Speaker 1: So the last three teams on this list, Jacksonville, Houston,

148
00:08:14,080 --> 00:08:18,680
Speaker 1: and the Jets are thirty one and in tv O

149
00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:21,360
Speaker 1: a schedule and they don't play themselves, and they don't

150
00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:24,440
Speaker 1: play themselves, they play each other. They play. Yeah, it

151
00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:27,280
Speaker 1: goes back to first place versus last place. Schedule means

152
00:08:27,280 --> 00:08:30,400
Speaker 1: a little more now than it used to um to

153
00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:32,960
Speaker 1: make the playoffs of Steelers have a forty six percent

154
00:08:33,040 --> 00:08:35,680
Speaker 1: chance according to I've been a lot of people across

155
00:08:35,720 --> 00:08:38,000
Speaker 1: this country doesn't agree with that. It doesn't seem like

156
00:08:38,040 --> 00:08:42,240
Speaker 1: it to win this to reach to reach the super Bowl.

157
00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:45,520
Speaker 1: A six point to chance percent chance to reach the

158
00:08:45,520 --> 00:08:48,760
Speaker 1: super Bowl. That's high. Far better than Cleveland, is it?

159
00:08:48,800 --> 00:08:51,560
Speaker 1: That's better than Denver. Let's go okay, So Tampa Bay

160
00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:54,760
Speaker 1: is at twenty two point six percent, Baltimore at eighteen

161
00:08:54,800 --> 00:08:59,160
Speaker 1: point eight percent, k C at seventeen point two, Buffalo

162
00:08:59,240 --> 00:09:02,000
Speaker 1: at thirteen point one, New England at nine point nine.

163
00:09:02,679 --> 00:09:04,800
Speaker 1: I don't buy that. At all either, I'm sorry, yea.

164
00:09:05,480 --> 00:09:07,600
Speaker 1: Even if they get into the playoffs because they have

165
00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:09,880
Speaker 1: the thirty second easiest schedule, then you have to play

166
00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:12,520
Speaker 1: good teams. Yeah, and it kind of comes back to

167
00:09:12,520 --> 00:09:16,400
Speaker 1: our Ravens conversation too, is can that version of the

168
00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:20,480
Speaker 1: Patriots come from behind and throw the wide receivers that

169
00:09:20,559 --> 00:09:23,680
Speaker 1: gets the Chiefs? You know they're gonna play a certain way. Yeah,

170
00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:27,920
Speaker 1: Seattle's at ten point, San Francisco's at eight point seven,

171
00:09:28,559 --> 00:09:34,240
Speaker 1: Green Bay's eleven point eight, New Orleans nine point oh uh,

172
00:09:34,320 --> 00:09:37,120
Speaker 1: Dallas is seven point four, Minnesota seven point three, the

173
00:09:37,320 --> 00:09:41,680
Speaker 1: Rams seven point oh the Ram and then the Steelers

174
00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:46,160
Speaker 1: are next, ahead of Miami, who they projected more wins

175
00:09:46,200 --> 00:09:49,160
Speaker 1: in them, ahead of Denver, who they have projected to

176
00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:50,800
Speaker 1: win more games. And I wonder how they do that,

177
00:09:51,040 --> 00:09:54,280
Speaker 1: how they come up with those percentages of Super Bowl

178
00:09:54,400 --> 00:09:56,920
Speaker 1: verse wins. And you know, they give the Steelers a

179
00:09:57,000 --> 00:10:01,720
Speaker 1: two point nine chance to win the Super Bowl. Mom

180
00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:04,839
Speaker 1: So people saying that the Steelers have no chance a

181
00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:08,000
Speaker 1: Roethlisberger there, you know, why are they doing this? That's why?

182
00:10:08,880 --> 00:10:13,720
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm sure it's there, but they're also there's

183
00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:15,920
Speaker 1: also a percentage that they could get a lottery pick two,

184
00:10:16,360 --> 00:10:18,560
Speaker 1: I mean first pick overall, Like I know, that's one

185
00:10:18,600 --> 00:10:21,440
Speaker 1: of the things they do with They also talked about

186
00:10:21,480 --> 00:10:23,880
Speaker 1: how bad teams can be too, because they were they

187
00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:26,720
Speaker 1: were in like a million simulations and there's a chance

188
00:10:26,720 --> 00:10:28,920
Speaker 1: they could end up picking first or thirty second. I

189
00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:32,559
Speaker 1: mean there's a chance. Um total d v o A.

190
00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:36,040
Speaker 1: This is how good your team is right now on paper. Steelers,

191
00:10:38,240 --> 00:10:40,520
Speaker 1: I think they were clearly the number one defense then

192
00:10:40,520 --> 00:10:43,839
Speaker 1: and the Rams were. One is Tampa Bay at twenty

193
00:10:45,000 --> 00:10:50,000
Speaker 1: I get it. Two is Baltimore. Three is I'm not

194
00:10:50,040 --> 00:10:53,560
Speaker 1: betting on Tampa Bay to when the Super Bowl to back. Yeah,

195
00:10:53,679 --> 00:10:56,280
Speaker 1: they got through pretty I'm not gonna say good injury free,

196
00:10:56,280 --> 00:10:58,760
Speaker 1: but pretty injury free. Last year. They got kind of

197
00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:00,959
Speaker 1: lucky through the playoffs too. Two they got to play,

198
00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:05,280
Speaker 1: including that version of the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. Yeah. Uh.

199
00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:10,400
Speaker 1: Casey was third at fifteen point five. Uh, Buffalo was

200
00:11:10,920 --> 00:11:14,040
Speaker 1: I'm sorry. No, Green Bay is fourth at thirteen point

201
00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:16,120
Speaker 1: nine to win the Super Bowls. No, this is ther

202
00:11:16,160 --> 00:11:20,040
Speaker 1: d b o A ranking total overall team ranking Uh.

203
00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:25,040
Speaker 1: Fifth is Buffalo six with Seattle at eleven point one.

204
00:11:25,400 --> 00:11:28,959
Speaker 1: Seven at eight point six is New Orleans. They like

205
00:11:29,080 --> 00:11:33,040
Speaker 1: New Orleans more than I would have guessed. I'm excited

206
00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:35,559
Speaker 1: to read that chapter. Eight is San Francisco at eight

207
00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:38,600
Speaker 1: point two. I actually wonder if New Orleans when I

208
00:11:38,640 --> 00:11:40,840
Speaker 1: read that chapter, I bet there's gonna be something along

209
00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:43,000
Speaker 1: the lines of they might be better at quarterback than

210
00:11:43,000 --> 00:11:45,439
Speaker 1: they were last year. Brees was not very good, and

211
00:11:45,480 --> 00:11:47,319
Speaker 1: he was not very good. I'm not saying Jameis is great,

212
00:11:47,360 --> 00:11:50,040
Speaker 1: but it could be one of those editions. By subtractions.

213
00:11:50,920 --> 00:11:53,600
Speaker 1: Nine is the Rams at seven point one, Ten is

214
00:11:53,640 --> 00:11:58,120
Speaker 1: the Vikings at seven point oh. Eleven is New England

215
00:11:58,400 --> 00:12:01,360
Speaker 1: at six point five. Yet they had New England is

216
00:12:01,400 --> 00:12:04,280
Speaker 1: with the fifth most wins because of that, because that

217
00:12:04,400 --> 00:12:09,599
Speaker 1: easy schedule. Twelve is Dallas at five point oh and

218
00:12:09,640 --> 00:12:12,040
Speaker 1: then the Steelers at four point nine. There's not a

219
00:12:12,080 --> 00:12:15,160
Speaker 1: big difference, not a big deal. Not a big difference

220
00:12:15,160 --> 00:12:21,760
Speaker 1: there between Let's say once you get down to seven ish. Yeah,

221
00:12:21,840 --> 00:12:25,400
Speaker 1: seven was in New Orleans at eight point six, and

222
00:12:25,440 --> 00:12:27,640
Speaker 1: the Steelers are there at four point nine. At thirteen

223
00:12:28,800 --> 00:12:34,480
Speaker 1: not a projected playoff ish teams. Fourteen is Miami at

224
00:12:34,480 --> 00:12:38,360
Speaker 1: two point to the difference there is that Miami plays

225
00:12:38,360 --> 00:12:43,360
Speaker 1: the twenty six hardest schedule Steelers have two. They're projecting

226
00:12:43,360 --> 00:12:48,120
Speaker 1: the Steelers be better football team by two point seven. Yeah. Uh,

227
00:12:48,280 --> 00:12:53,480
Speaker 1: same thing with Who's fifteen. Fifteen is Cleveland, but Cleveland

228
00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:58,040
Speaker 1: plays the eighth best schedule. They play the eighth toughest schedule. Oe.

229
00:12:59,160 --> 00:13:06,559
Speaker 1: UM sixteen is actually Denver at point two. Okay, so

230
00:13:06,679 --> 00:13:09,760
Speaker 1: their average their average. But they again they project them

231
00:13:09,960 --> 00:13:13,400
Speaker 1: with the same wind total as the Steelers. We'll see

232
00:13:13,800 --> 00:13:16,880
Speaker 1: offensive dv o A. They're projecting Casey is number one.

233
00:13:18,280 --> 00:13:24,760
Speaker 1: They have. The number two offense is Green Bay yea Rogers. Yeah,

234
00:13:24,800 --> 00:13:27,160
Speaker 1: I mean I assume they're just gonna asterix that and

235
00:13:27,200 --> 00:13:32,560
Speaker 1: say with Rogers, three is Tampa Bay. Four at Seattle, Wow,

236
00:13:32,720 --> 00:13:36,040
Speaker 1: I don't know if I agree with that. Yeah, five

237
00:13:36,160 --> 00:13:38,079
Speaker 1: is Baltimore. I don't know if I agree with that.

238
00:13:38,080 --> 00:13:40,000
Speaker 1: They got to make a pretty big jump to get

239
00:13:40,040 --> 00:13:44,040
Speaker 1: to there this year because last year, Uh, their offensive

240
00:13:44,080 --> 00:13:47,840
Speaker 1: d v o A Baltimore was ninth. No, it's defense

241
00:13:47,880 --> 00:13:51,920
Speaker 1: they were eleven. So the Ravens chapter is pretty favorable

242
00:13:51,960 --> 00:13:57,000
Speaker 1: for them. That I just summer it up as football

243
00:13:57,080 --> 00:13:59,719
Speaker 1: Siders likes Lamar more than most people do. Just put

244
00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:02,560
Speaker 1: it that way. Um, they have them as with the

245
00:14:02,559 --> 00:14:05,000
Speaker 1: tenth hardest schedule, by the way, and the whole divisions

246
00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:13,280
Speaker 1: got road. Uh. Six is Minnesota HM seven offense offense,

247
00:14:13,400 --> 00:14:16,080
Speaker 1: yeahs for play. Last year on offense was really high.

248
00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:19,760
Speaker 1: Seven is Cleveland. I don't know if I see that.

249
00:14:20,160 --> 00:14:22,080
Speaker 1: Who do you think has a better offense? Cleveland Baltimore.

250
00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:26,240
Speaker 1: I mean there's similar styles. Well, Cleveland was ninth in

251
00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:29,200
Speaker 1: offensive d v o A last year in Baltimore was eleventh.

252
00:14:30,120 --> 00:14:33,640
Speaker 1: So yeah, and one thing about Cleveland, you gotta remember

253
00:14:34,640 --> 00:14:39,240
Speaker 1: they played three awful weather games, really bad ones, so

254
00:14:39,320 --> 00:14:42,000
Speaker 1: it's a little harder, and they played games their first

255
00:14:42,040 --> 00:14:44,600
Speaker 1: two meetings with the Ravens and Steelers, they got crushed.

256
00:14:44,840 --> 00:14:48,960
Speaker 1: They scored thirteen points combined. And they also benefited though

257
00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:51,960
Speaker 1: from Week seventeen to playing against the team that wasn't

258
00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:57,640
Speaker 1: really trying to win. Eight Dallas, their offense is pretty

259
00:14:57,680 --> 00:15:00,360
Speaker 1: ring good. I would take Dallas's offensive over anyone in

260
00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:04,640
Speaker 1: our division division without question. I mean, if Tyron Smith

261
00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:07,480
Speaker 1: and Zach Martins stay healthy, that could be number one.

262
00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:10,120
Speaker 1: Nine is the Rams. I would take the Rams offense

263
00:15:10,200 --> 00:15:17,800
Speaker 1: over higher than Seattle, Baltimore, Cleveland. Ten is Tennessee. Maybe

264
00:15:18,240 --> 00:15:22,720
Speaker 1: they've got three stars yeah, potentially eleven Buffalo. I put

265
00:15:22,800 --> 00:15:27,960
Speaker 1: Buffalo pretty high too. Yeah, i'd have Buffalo. Maybe Overland, Yeah,

266
00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:33,680
Speaker 1: they were top five last year. Twelve Las Vegas. I'm

267
00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:38,400
Speaker 1: not buying that, not really. I'm not gonna go through

268
00:15:38,400 --> 00:15:40,560
Speaker 1: the mall. But they hit the Steelers going the twenty

269
00:15:40,640 --> 00:15:42,920
Speaker 1: one best offense in the league this year. They were

270
00:15:42,920 --> 00:15:45,800
Speaker 1: twenty two last year. I think the offense was better

271
00:15:45,800 --> 00:15:47,560
Speaker 1: than last year. And I'm not just say so. As well.

272
00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:50,760
Speaker 1: The radio station we're on the running game has to

273
00:15:50,800 --> 00:15:55,280
Speaker 1: be better. Yeah, that's at minus four overall zero's average.

274
00:15:55,760 --> 00:15:58,360
Speaker 1: Uh so minus four. They were minus four point seven

275
00:15:58,520 --> 00:16:01,960
Speaker 1: last year. Who were like the ones, slightly above, slightly below,

276
00:16:02,280 --> 00:16:08,960
Speaker 1: uh slightly above them. Twenty two is Indianapolis? Yeah, twenty

277
00:16:09,080 --> 00:16:14,600
Speaker 1: is it's not a real ring endorsement. New England. Yeah,

278
00:16:15,280 --> 00:16:17,880
Speaker 1: I think I'll take the Steelers offense over the Patriots.

279
00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:25,240
Speaker 1: Nineteen is Denver. Take the Steelers offense over Denver? Would

280
00:16:25,880 --> 00:16:28,520
Speaker 1: kidding me? Like, I'm just curious, Like I know, perception

281
00:16:28,560 --> 00:16:31,600
Speaker 1: across the national media of Ben isn't great right now?

282
00:16:31,640 --> 00:16:35,840
Speaker 1: Eighteens Detroit. What if Ben were a Bronco, they'd be

283
00:16:35,880 --> 00:16:39,680
Speaker 1: a Super Bowl contender. I think I think they're ten

284
00:16:39,720 --> 00:16:42,440
Speaker 1: and a half, you know what I mean. I'm not

285
00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:45,640
Speaker 1: saying Ben's a savior, but I mean better than what

286
00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:51,240
Speaker 1: they defensive d v o A Steelers are number one. Yeah,

287
00:16:51,720 --> 00:16:54,800
Speaker 1: they're only minus nine point oh so last year they

288
00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:57,240
Speaker 1: were number they were number two and two to the Rams.

289
00:16:57,280 --> 00:16:59,880
Speaker 1: I think, no, last year they were number one minus

290
00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:04,159
Speaker 1: twenty point two, minus twenty point two. New Orleans was

291
00:17:04,200 --> 00:17:09,679
Speaker 1: second at minus nineteen. So I mean they're they're being pretty.

292
00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:12,800
Speaker 1: Projections are hard because you don't get the average of

293
00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:15,119
Speaker 1: the best in the worst. You don't pick teams to

294
00:17:15,160 --> 00:17:19,240
Speaker 1: be sixteen and one. Even Tampa Tampa Bay's average win

295
00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:22,400
Speaker 1: average wins comes out to eleven point one in seventeen

296
00:17:22,440 --> 00:17:25,919
Speaker 1: games schedule. There will be someone will be better than that.

297
00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:28,120
Speaker 1: Three to four teams this year that win more than

298
00:17:28,119 --> 00:17:30,280
Speaker 1: eleven games. Of course, of course that's just the way

299
00:17:30,320 --> 00:17:32,240
Speaker 1: it works. There'll be there'll be three to four teams.

300
00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:34,720
Speaker 1: The lowest win total in the league is six point one,

301
00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:36,640
Speaker 1: and there's gonna be there's gonna be three or four

302
00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:39,040
Speaker 1: teams below that number one, five or lapt right, there

303
00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:41,439
Speaker 1: always is. I think the way it works, and by

304
00:17:41,440 --> 00:17:44,080
Speaker 1: no means of my a math major, But it goes

305
00:17:44,119 --> 00:17:48,080
Speaker 1: back to when you simulate ten thousand a million games,

306
00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:50,800
Speaker 1: you get closer and closer to eight and eight or

307
00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:53,080
Speaker 1: eight and nine, nine and eight. You know that'll be

308
00:17:53,200 --> 00:17:56,880
Speaker 1: just because fifteen and ones are hard, but they still

309
00:17:56,920 --> 00:17:58,800
Speaker 1: happen year and the year. It's kind of like the

310
00:17:58,840 --> 00:18:02,359
Speaker 1: baseball analogy, like I win your baseball games, you're a

311
00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:05,320
Speaker 1: stud team, where if you win six your football games,

312
00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:07,879
Speaker 1: that might not get you in the playoffs, right because

313
00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:11,880
Speaker 1: a smaller example size. Uh so they're one San Francisco's

314
00:18:11,920 --> 00:18:16,119
Speaker 1: number two actually defensive or defensive d v o A. Yeah,

315
00:18:16,640 --> 00:18:19,640
Speaker 1: minus seven point eight. Steelers are minus nine point oh

316
00:18:19,920 --> 00:18:22,320
Speaker 1: get Nickolsa back and some good things there, but I

317
00:18:22,320 --> 00:18:24,080
Speaker 1: don't think they're in a legal that's a pretty big

318
00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:30,160
Speaker 1: Like the number one offense offensive was it was too

319
00:18:30,280 --> 00:18:34,520
Speaker 1: Casey was one of offenses. They were one at number

320
00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:38,120
Speaker 1: one at twenty point one. Number two was Baltimore at

321
00:18:38,119 --> 00:18:41,160
Speaker 1: seven teen point six. So it's a little bit bigger.

322
00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:43,880
Speaker 1: That's a little bit bigger spread than the Steelers defense

323
00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:47,080
Speaker 1: over San Francisco's defense. But then you look down the line.

324
00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:50,040
Speaker 1: Number three is New Orleans at minus seven point four.

325
00:18:50,480 --> 00:18:56,119
Speaker 1: Who was to last year, right, Yeah. Number Number four

326
00:18:56,760 --> 00:19:01,560
Speaker 1: is uh Buffalo and minus seven point one. Number five

327
00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:04,920
Speaker 1: is five is New England at minus six point five.

328
00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:07,919
Speaker 1: I think it's a good D. I think it's a

329
00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:11,440
Speaker 1: deep D that isn't star studded. But you bring high

330
00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:15,399
Speaker 1: tower back and j gets a year older, and I

331
00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:19,879
Speaker 1: think they'll be sixteen deep with good players. Depends on

332
00:19:19,880 --> 00:19:22,920
Speaker 1: what happens with the cornerback situation though. Is he gonna

333
00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:25,760
Speaker 1: be there hold out? Yeah? But Jackson is not bad,

334
00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:28,560
Speaker 1: and you know there's the guy that makes that go though.

335
00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:36,600
Speaker 1: Because UH six is Tampa Bay defense seven is Washington,

336
00:19:37,080 --> 00:19:39,600
Speaker 1: I might put them on. They might be higher than that.

337
00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:43,159
Speaker 1: We'll see. I still don't love the linebackers, but I

338
00:19:43,240 --> 00:19:45,200
Speaker 1: might put a buck on Jamie Davis to win Rookie

339
00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:50,000
Speaker 1: of the Year behind that line. Eight Baltimore, it's good,

340
00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:53,400
Speaker 1: it's not great to me. Nine is Now we're talking

341
00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:55,280
Speaker 1: ABU football outsiders. I think I sent this to you

342
00:19:55,320 --> 00:19:59,280
Speaker 1: when I read the Ravens section. They have some remarkable

343
00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:02,040
Speaker 1: streak of having top ten d v o a s

344
00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:05,199
Speaker 1: over like the last fifteen years or something crazy. The

345
00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:08,960
Speaker 1: defense and special teams they're like been the best over

346
00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:12,200
Speaker 1: a long stretch, not necessarily top five, but like top ten.

347
00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:17,600
Speaker 1: Denver's nine in defense, uh, not perfectly fine with that.

348
00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:22,040
Speaker 1: Ten is Chicago. Yeah they have some holes though. Yeah,

349
00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:26,080
Speaker 1: this is where Cleveland really They were very bad last

350
00:20:26,119 --> 00:20:28,960
Speaker 1: year and they're gonna have like nine new starters on defense,

351
00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:33,000
Speaker 1: six in defensive d B O A. I mean, I

352
00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:36,359
Speaker 1: bet it's better than that. But here's the thing. I

353
00:20:36,359 --> 00:20:38,280
Speaker 1: don't know if their offense is going to be seventh.

354
00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:41,280
Speaker 1: I think it's worse than that. They're both closer to

355
00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:46,600
Speaker 1: the average. So if they're tenth in offense in two

356
00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:50,320
Speaker 1: in defense, are they a good and five teams? I

357
00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:54,040
Speaker 1: don't think so. Division winner? Um the key too, and

358
00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:57,720
Speaker 1: we mentioned this before. It's raven like, is the defense's

359
00:20:57,760 --> 00:20:59,920
Speaker 1: to keep them close, Like I don't know if they're

360
00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:03,720
Speaker 1: down ten on the road against the Titans or whomever,

361
00:21:03,920 --> 00:21:06,600
Speaker 1: that the Browns are gonna storm back because they can't

362
00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:09,800
Speaker 1: stop it and Baker turns all over in those The

363
00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:13,720
Speaker 1: thirty second rated defense according to them is Tennessee. Wow.

364
00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:16,320
Speaker 1: And they've done a lot. They've like rebuilt their whole

365
00:21:16,320 --> 00:21:20,040
Speaker 1: past defense. It was bad to last year and the

366
00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:22,119
Speaker 1: worst pass rushing team in the league last year. The

367
00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:26,359
Speaker 1: only team ahead of the Steelers on this UH with

368
00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:29,560
Speaker 1: the defense outside of the top six team, which would

369
00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:33,960
Speaker 1: be midway through, is k C at two. The only

370
00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:40,760
Speaker 1: offenses on the list that rank i'm looking here outside

371
00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:43,760
Speaker 1: the top sixteen according to them, Well there's there's four. Actually,

372
00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:49,480
Speaker 1: one would be the Steelers at one, the Colts Denver

373
00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:54,199
Speaker 1: at nineteen, in New England at twenty. Okay, so if

374
00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:56,359
Speaker 1: you're gonna if that's where this ends up at, you

375
00:21:56,480 --> 00:22:00,000
Speaker 1: better be really good on defense. And the Steelers are,

376
00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:03,399
Speaker 1: according to this really good on defense. Yeah yeah, I

377
00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:05,399
Speaker 1: mean they would certainly be in the top three for

378
00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:10,320
Speaker 1: me ranking defenses right now, I would lean towards Washington one. UH.

379
00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:13,920
Speaker 1: Special teams rankings, this is a part of the team

380
00:22:13,960 --> 00:22:16,360
Speaker 1: d v o A as well. Number one is New England.

381
00:22:17,240 --> 00:22:22,520
Speaker 1: They're also that's another Football Outsiders historic note is Baltimore

382
00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:25,320
Speaker 1: and New England are the only teams that are consistently

383
00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:31,800
Speaker 1: near the top. Number two is Baltimore. Three. Um, I'm

384
00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:35,800
Speaker 1: not seeing three on here. I got Pittsburgh's decent. Three

385
00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:39,439
Speaker 1: is Cincinnati. They were then, Really that's one thing has

386
00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:41,679
Speaker 1: done really well since he's been there. That nobody, of

387
00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:43,600
Speaker 1: course notices but they've always been near the top of

388
00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:48,320
Speaker 1: the league. Four is Detroit shows you a little bit

389
00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:50,840
Speaker 1: how much special teams it does matter. But it's not

390
00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:53,560
Speaker 1: that I know how football outsiders does it is. They

391
00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:56,800
Speaker 1: look at it like it's a ten cut pizza. Five

392
00:22:56,840 --> 00:23:00,159
Speaker 1: cuts are offense. Four cuts it's eight, it's eight. It's

393
00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:02,400
Speaker 1: because it's four and three four, three and one. Yeah,

394
00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:06,480
Speaker 1: I know. One cut is special teams, Yeah, which is important,

395
00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:08,320
Speaker 1: but there's a lot of variants with that too. The

396
00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:12,600
Speaker 1: Steelers come in at that at sixteen, I think, yeah,

397
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 1: I think they have a good special teams coach. They've

398
00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:16,520
Speaker 1: been higher than that in three of the last four years. Yeah,

399
00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:20,600
Speaker 1: I mean more so than some teams. They'll keep five

400
00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:22,919
Speaker 1: core special teamers too, you know what I mean, and

401
00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:25,880
Speaker 1: upgrade the year that they didn't finish in the top

402
00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:29,680
Speaker 1: six team when they returned, yeah, what the Boswell was

403
00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:33,679
Speaker 1: awful and they didn't return their kick returns. We're just awful.

404
00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:35,400
Speaker 1: And I think they have a returner. Now they've got

405
00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:39,840
Speaker 1: a returner. Boswell's Boswell and especially you'll see what happens

406
00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:42,320
Speaker 1: with the punning. But people that complain about Danny Smith,

407
00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:45,919
Speaker 1: you know, that's another one of those positions like corner

408
00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:48,199
Speaker 1: or left tackle. You do remember the bad things, you know,

409
00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:52,280
Speaker 1: like special teams. Coach is a thankless joan um. Looking

410
00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:55,000
Speaker 1: at some of these other top teams, Tampa Bay number

411
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:58,600
Speaker 1: one in the league, the special team on special teams,

412
00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:04,879
Speaker 1: uh Baltimore too, Casey is five, Buffalo is fifteen. Casey

413
00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:07,680
Speaker 1: has been pretty good over the years, Seattle ten, San

414
00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:12,720
Speaker 1: Francisco three, Green Bay is thirty one. I think they

415
00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:14,440
Speaker 1: were really bad on special teams last year from what

416
00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:17,960
Speaker 1: I remember, New Orleans sixth. You wouldn't think that would

417
00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:19,760
Speaker 1: be the case with New Orleans because they're so top

418
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 1: heavy and they don't you know, I was thinking that too,

419
00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:24,880
Speaker 1: like who are the backup linebackers and safeties that are

420
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:31,080
Speaker 1: good players that would playing for? Yeah, Dallas, iste, Minnesota,

421
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:36,280
Speaker 1: Minnesota and Green Bay. Your top two teams in the

422
00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:40,240
Speaker 1: NFC Central bad special team, bad special teams, the Rams

423
00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 1: twenty nine. They're usually high to they usually do a

424
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:45,560
Speaker 1: lot of trickery, and you know, Hecker throws balls and

425
00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:51,080
Speaker 1: Miami's nineteen, Denver six. I mean that could be a reason,

426
00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:54,000
Speaker 1: you know, if you're looking at oh, yeah, it's different,

427
00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:55,800
Speaker 1: I could get that wins or loses you a game.

428
00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:59,080
Speaker 1: I mean it goes back to the Ravens and Patriots.

429
00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:03,560
Speaker 1: I mean one of the Harborn Belichick's staples are being

430
00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:05,680
Speaker 1: great in that phase. And maybe it's not a big

431
00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:08,160
Speaker 1: percentage of games, but you do it year after year,

432
00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:12,479
Speaker 1: your win percentage goes up. Uh, Cleveland is twenty seconds.

433
00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:16,679
Speaker 1: So the Browns, according to these Divo A projections seventh

434
00:25:16,720 --> 00:25:19,879
Speaker 1: on offense, twenty six on defense, twenty two and special teams.

435
00:25:20,560 --> 00:25:23,920
Speaker 1: That does not add up to the division winning team. Again,

436
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:26,120
Speaker 1: reading that Browns chapter, I don't have it in front

437
00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:29,639
Speaker 1: of me, but I'm almost certain they had unbelievably good

438
00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 1: field gold luck. You know where opponent kickers just missed.

439
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:35,440
Speaker 1: You know, that doesn't mean you're great at Russian the kicker.

440
00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:38,359
Speaker 1: You know you're lucky, you know something. That's where they play,

441
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:42,000
Speaker 1: probably right right, I mean, but but still, yeah, it

442
00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:45,520
Speaker 1: still helps. Looking at those schedules, who mentioned that Chicago

443
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 1: had the hardest schedule at number one, the Steelers number two,

444
00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:53,600
Speaker 1: number three, is surprised me. Chicago's number one. Their division

445
00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:54,960
Speaker 1: is not that hard and they're not a first place.

446
00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:57,480
Speaker 1: You know, they gotta play green Bay in Minnesota, which

447
00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:00,440
Speaker 1: is no you know, Picnic Green Bay comes in three,

448
00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:07,360
Speaker 1: so the North must play somebody. NC West. Four is Detroit,

449
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:10,359
Speaker 1: so there you go. Yeah, yeah that division five they

450
00:26:10,400 --> 00:26:14,080
Speaker 1: must play at the NFC West and probably the f

451
00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:16,760
Speaker 1: C Nor. The Steelers don't play that team. Did that

452
00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:21,880
Speaker 1: group to that? I should know that, I thought, my heaven, Yeah,

453
00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 1: yeah they do, they yeah, they do. So that's probably

454
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:27,920
Speaker 1: the hardest divisions to play if you're the NFC North. Yeah.

455
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:31,880
Speaker 1: Fifth is Cincinnati. The six games in their divisions really

456
00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:34,639
Speaker 1: rough on them. Six is the Rams. Seven is Minnesota.

457
00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:37,200
Speaker 1: So that whole division. As as hard as the schedule

458
00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:40,440
Speaker 1: is for the a f C North, the NFC North

459
00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:43,600
Speaker 1: has it even harder. Makes me think the chances are

460
00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:47,680
Speaker 1: one NFC North team goes the playoffs. Cleveland's at eighty

461
00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:52,280
Speaker 1: nine is the Chargers. Everybody's darling and this is another

462
00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:54,400
Speaker 1: darling team that all they're gonna make this big jump

463
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:56,560
Speaker 1: this year where they get a tough schedule. I think

464
00:26:56,560 --> 00:26:59,080
Speaker 1: they're better than Denver and Oakland Vegas though what they

465
00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:03,560
Speaker 1: play a tougher sketch. Yeah. Uh. Ten is Baltimore. Yeah,

466
00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:08,080
Speaker 1: both the North divisions have top roads. Washington's eleven. So

467
00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:11,919
Speaker 1: with the Arizona at twelve, at the bottom end of

468
00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:18,320
Speaker 1: that scale. We mentioned that thirty two was New England. Yeah,

469
00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:20,800
Speaker 1: they've been historically hit the bottom of that list, always,

470
00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:24,280
Speaker 1: always uh. And then we'll I mean, we'll see Miami's

471
00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:27,320
Speaker 1: getting better. Buffalo is Buffalo. It's not that they're a

472
00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:35,199
Speaker 1: dog against Buffalo. Yeah, thirty is uh Tampa Bay. I

473
00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:38,600
Speaker 1: guess their division is not that scary. Their favorite at

474
00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:41,680
Speaker 1: least in four of those games, and probably six twenty

475
00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:49,119
Speaker 1: nine Buffalo hight is Houston. Wow. Still I don't know,

476
00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:51,919
Speaker 1: are they gonna be a favorite in any game? I mean,

477
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:54,639
Speaker 1: if Jacksonville were in Houston in Week one, what's the

478
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 1: spread the pick them? Yeah, I think I take the Jags.

479
00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:04,680
Speaker 1: Seven is Denver? Twenty six is Miami? So interesting stuff though, Yeah,

480
00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:07,359
Speaker 1: all that stuff matters. And again the Steelers mean victory

481
00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 1: average wins eight point eight. That would be the second

482
00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:14,560
Speaker 1: most in the division behind bat ahead of Cleveland, who

483
00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:18,240
Speaker 1: is everybody's Oh, everybody's slick pick. The Browns have a

484
00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:20,360
Speaker 1: forty two point eight percent chance to make the playoffs,

485
00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:22,639
Speaker 1: according to Football Outside, There's a five percent chance to

486
00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:25,440
Speaker 1: reach the Super Bowl, a two point two percent chance

487
00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:27,520
Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl. The Steelers better than them

488
00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:30,400
Speaker 1: on both of those fronts as well. I mean, nine

489
00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:33,480
Speaker 1: and eight might kick you in the postseason, probably will

490
00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:35,960
Speaker 1: for somebody. Probably, I bet the seventh team has probably

491
00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:38,400
Speaker 1: not been getting into some tiebreakers and things of that nature.

492
00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:41,120
Speaker 1: But can't be eight. Can't be tired at eight and

493
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:44,480
Speaker 1: eight anymore. No, I kind of like that point. Yeah,

494
00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:47,440
Speaker 1: seventeenth game. I think it's cool that way. Yeah, so

495
00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:50,680
Speaker 1: interesting stuff, Jim. We'll have Aaron Shafts on to talk

496
00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:54,320
Speaker 1: about all this next Monday. Tune in for that. Yeah,

497
00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:56,160
Speaker 1: I can't wait for that. But that's gonna do it

498
00:28:56,200 --> 00:28:58,200
Speaker 1: for this show. So for my partner Matt Williamson, for

499
00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:00,720
Speaker 1: Kellen Girski here on site keeping us on the air,

500
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:03,440
Speaker 1: I'm Dale Lally. We thank you for listening to this

501
00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:06,040
Speaker 1: edition of the Drive on Steelers Nation Radio.