1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:03,160 Speaker 1: This is Dana Perkins and your listening to Switched on 2 00:00:03,480 --> 00:00:07,040 Speaker 1: the bn EF podcast. It is a year of elections 3 00:00:07,120 --> 00:00:09,440 Speaker 1: around the world and if you look at all the 4 00:00:09,480 --> 00:00:13,440 Speaker 1: countries with upcoming elections together, they account for sixty seven 5 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:16,759 Speaker 1: percent of global GDP. In addition to the longer term 6 00:00:16,760 --> 00:00:20,800 Speaker 1: implications for climate friendly policy, depending upon who is or 7 00:00:20,960 --> 00:00:25,000 Speaker 1: isn't elected, geopolitical uncertainty could lead to a slowing of 8 00:00:25,040 --> 00:00:28,760 Speaker 1: investment in the energy transition this year while investors await 9 00:00:28,840 --> 00:00:33,120 Speaker 1: results and ultimately stability. Good climate policy can boost low 10 00:00:33,159 --> 00:00:35,760 Speaker 1: carbon energy roll out and help nations reach their net 11 00:00:35,880 --> 00:00:39,560 Speaker 1: zero targets, but without it, necessary emissions reductions by twenty 12 00:00:39,640 --> 00:00:43,560 Speaker 1: fifty are even less certain. Today, I'm joined by bnef's 13 00:00:43,600 --> 00:00:47,360 Speaker 1: head of Global Policy, Victoria Cumming and US policy analyst 14 00:00:47,479 --> 00:00:51,040 Speaker 1: Derek Flackl. They discuss the potential implications for the Inflation 15 00:00:51,159 --> 00:00:53,880 Speaker 1: Reduction Act in the United States and should the likely 16 00:00:53,960 --> 00:00:57,720 Speaker 1: Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump return to the Oval Office, 17 00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:01,160 Speaker 1: will he be interested and able to repeal the IRA. 18 00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:05,119 Speaker 1: In addition to the United States, we preview upcoming elections 19 00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:08,600 Speaker 1: in Canada and Mexico and in Europe with growing right 20 00:01:08,680 --> 00:01:12,560 Speaker 1: leaning sentiment. Will this be reflected in European Parliament and 21 00:01:12,600 --> 00:01:16,039 Speaker 1: in the United Kingdom. What will happen between the Conservatives 22 00:01:16,080 --> 00:01:18,959 Speaker 1: and labor when it comes to climate in Asia? Is 23 00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:23,160 Speaker 1: it possible that political stability in India, Indonesia or South 24 00:01:23,240 --> 00:01:27,080 Speaker 1: Korea could lead to more favorable climate policy? And could 25 00:01:27,120 --> 00:01:30,000 Speaker 1: this be the year that the ANC loses power in 26 00:01:30,080 --> 00:01:33,800 Speaker 1: South Africa after several decades. We also chat about whether 27 00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:38,040 Speaker 1: anyone can really trust the polling data to access BNF's 28 00:01:38,040 --> 00:01:41,720 Speaker 1: research note highlighted on today's show titled Wave of Elections 29 00:01:41,720 --> 00:01:45,600 Speaker 1: poses risk for the Energy Transition. BNAF subscribers are going 30 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:47,800 Speaker 1: to be able to find it at BNF dot Com 31 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:50,560 Speaker 1: or at BENF go on the Bloomberg terminal. But right now, 32 00:01:50,640 --> 00:01:53,640 Speaker 1: let's speak with Vicky and Derek about the global elections 33 00:01:53,640 --> 00:01:55,920 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four and what this could mean for 34 00:01:55,960 --> 00:02:08,919 Speaker 1: the energy transition. Vicky, thank you for joining. 35 00:02:08,600 --> 00:02:10,640 Speaker 2: Today, Thank you very much for having me. 36 00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:13,720 Speaker 1: And Derek thank you for joining us today as well. 37 00:02:13,919 --> 00:02:15,040 Speaker 3: Thank you very much for having me. 38 00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:18,040 Speaker 1: So we're here to talk about what is going to 39 00:02:18,080 --> 00:02:22,000 Speaker 1: be very exciting and very important election year in the 40 00:02:22,040 --> 00:02:24,640 Speaker 1: climate space, with a number of elections coming up in 41 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:28,000 Speaker 1: twenty twenty four, and we'll get into the individual countries 42 00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:30,040 Speaker 1: in this show, and I hope both of you will 43 00:02:30,040 --> 00:02:32,360 Speaker 1: be able to provide some real perspective on those. But 44 00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:34,520 Speaker 1: before we dive into that, can you give us a 45 00:02:34,520 --> 00:02:38,080 Speaker 1: bit of context about why this year in particular is 46 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:41,400 Speaker 1: so important from a climate standpoint when it comes to elections. 47 00:02:41,840 --> 00:02:45,520 Speaker 2: So it's kind of unprecedented the number of elections that 48 00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:48,120 Speaker 2: we have this year at all levels of government all 49 00:02:48,160 --> 00:02:51,320 Speaker 2: around the world. So I think economy is responsible for 50 00:02:51,360 --> 00:02:54,280 Speaker 2: around two thirds of global GDP, in half of the 51 00:02:54,320 --> 00:02:59,160 Speaker 2: world's population actually have elections this year. And these elections 52 00:02:59,240 --> 00:03:03,960 Speaker 2: have both term ramifications in terms of markets and policy making, 53 00:03:04,080 --> 00:03:07,359 Speaker 2: but they also have significant ramifications in the longer term 54 00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:10,639 Speaker 2: depending on outcome of those elections. And we're at a 55 00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:14,000 Speaker 2: particularly crucial stage in terms of the energy transition, because 56 00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:17,080 Speaker 2: governments are trying to put in place those concrete policies 57 00:03:17,120 --> 00:03:21,040 Speaker 2: that actually enable them to achieve their twenty thirty climate plans, 58 00:03:21,080 --> 00:03:23,919 Speaker 2: but also get them really on the road to achieving 59 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:25,680 Speaker 2: that zero by the middle of the century. 60 00:03:26,080 --> 00:03:29,000 Speaker 1: One way to get a feel for what could happen 61 00:03:29,080 --> 00:03:31,360 Speaker 1: in a number of these countries has typically been to 62 00:03:31,440 --> 00:03:35,280 Speaker 1: turn to polls, but can we really trust polls and 63 00:03:35,320 --> 00:03:36,640 Speaker 1: what are polls able to tell us? 64 00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:41,680 Speaker 2: So I think opinion polls definitely can provide some information, 65 00:03:41,880 --> 00:03:44,560 Speaker 2: like a snap shot at that time of the potential 66 00:03:44,600 --> 00:03:47,960 Speaker 2: outcome of the elections, but it really is a snapshot 67 00:03:48,400 --> 00:03:51,600 Speaker 2: of the particular moment when the poll is taken, and 68 00:03:51,760 --> 00:03:54,440 Speaker 2: it really depends on the underlying methodology of the polls 69 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:56,880 Speaker 2: as to how accurate they're going to be, because we 70 00:03:56,960 --> 00:04:00,680 Speaker 2: have seen in recent votes and elections in the UK 71 00:04:01,000 --> 00:04:03,520 Speaker 2: and the US when we had the Brexit vote, that 72 00:04:03,560 --> 00:04:06,200 Speaker 2: the polls were somewhat misleading. They were unaligned with what 73 00:04:06,360 --> 00:04:10,040 Speaker 2: actually happened, and that can be for various reasons, including 74 00:04:10,160 --> 00:04:13,280 Speaker 2: the sample that they've used for the poll is unrepresentative, 75 00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:17,159 Speaker 2: or it's made up of people that have particularly strong 76 00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:21,200 Speaker 2: political views they don't necessarily reflect when you actually the 77 00:04:21,440 --> 00:04:25,240 Speaker 2: participants in the polls themselves may not be wholly truthful, 78 00:04:25,279 --> 00:04:28,760 Speaker 2: whether intentionally or unintentionally. So in the UK we have 79 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:32,480 Speaker 2: had this trend of what are called shy Tories Tories 80 00:04:32,720 --> 00:04:36,200 Speaker 2: what referred to as the Conservative Party, so where respondents 81 00:04:36,240 --> 00:04:39,080 Speaker 2: to polls actually don't want to admit that they vote 82 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:42,159 Speaker 2: for the Conservative Party. Or more recently, we have this 83 00:04:42,240 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 2: phenomenon of shy switches, So these are ones where they 84 00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:48,760 Speaker 2: state in public that they support the Conservative Party, but 85 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:51,599 Speaker 2: they don't actually intend to vote for it. So really 86 00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:55,440 Speaker 2: they can provide useful information as part of overall assessment, 87 00:04:55,560 --> 00:04:57,560 Speaker 2: but they should be taken with a pinch of salt. 88 00:04:57,760 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 1: So if we can't really predict what's going to happen, 89 00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:02,800 Speaker 1: the polls are really not telling us what we need 90 00:05:02,800 --> 00:05:05,679 Speaker 1: them to because people aren't even being honest in those polls. 91 00:05:05,960 --> 00:05:08,960 Speaker 1: That raises the question regarding those who are thinking about 92 00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:11,839 Speaker 1: investing in these markets and in some of the companies 93 00:05:11,839 --> 00:05:15,080 Speaker 1: in these markets, what does that really mean for investors 94 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:18,280 Speaker 1: in are they able to make bets based on how 95 00:05:18,279 --> 00:05:20,599 Speaker 1: they're predicting the future? Do they really just back away? 96 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:24,240 Speaker 2: So I think we can talk really now about like 97 00:05:24,279 --> 00:05:27,359 Speaker 2: the short term implications of having all these elections, So 98 00:05:27,640 --> 00:05:30,919 Speaker 2: really the kind of catchphrases uncertainty. So in terms of 99 00:05:31,080 --> 00:05:35,360 Speaker 2: investment and markets, there's elevated risk and that can weigh 100 00:05:35,440 --> 00:05:40,560 Speaker 2: down investor sentiment, especially from foreign investors, and that energy sectors, 101 00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:45,280 Speaker 2: particularly new energy, are particularly exposed to these elevated risks 102 00:05:45,480 --> 00:05:49,720 Speaker 2: because in large part the technology deployment, for example, depends 103 00:05:49,880 --> 00:05:53,640 Speaker 2: on policy and political support, so there is evidence to 104 00:05:53,680 --> 00:05:56,160 Speaker 2: suggest that some of the kind of stock markets might 105 00:05:56,240 --> 00:05:59,440 Speaker 2: be more muted in the run up to elections. Investments 106 00:05:59,440 --> 00:06:03,600 Speaker 2: and energy transition technologies and processes could be reduced, and 107 00:06:03,760 --> 00:06:07,359 Speaker 2: companies may be less willing to or might want to 108 00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:11,680 Speaker 2: press hold on making final investment decisions for large projects, 109 00:06:11,800 --> 00:06:15,719 Speaker 2: especially where they depend on policy support. So we can 110 00:06:15,760 --> 00:06:19,440 Speaker 2: see things like short term fluctuations in markets due to 111 00:06:19,880 --> 00:06:23,920 Speaker 2: big announcements like the opinion polls like interim votes where 112 00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:27,400 Speaker 2: we see debates between the contenders for the elections, and 113 00:06:27,520 --> 00:06:30,920 Speaker 2: also when the parties release their manifestos, and in terms 114 00:06:30,960 --> 00:06:34,720 Speaker 2: of kind of the policy risks, it differs across markets 115 00:06:34,760 --> 00:06:38,560 Speaker 2: depending on what their overall electoral process is. But in general, 116 00:06:38,640 --> 00:06:41,320 Speaker 2: there is, as I've said, a lot of political uncertainty, 117 00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:44,200 Speaker 2: so we could see that the incumbent government tries to 118 00:06:44,240 --> 00:06:46,560 Speaker 2: kind of rush through a whole load of policy and 119 00:06:46,640 --> 00:06:49,360 Speaker 2: legislation in the run up to the election. And this 120 00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:52,479 Speaker 2: can see especially where in cases where there's like a 121 00:06:52,600 --> 00:06:56,159 Speaker 2: change in political administration is expected, this can see a 122 00:06:56,320 --> 00:07:00,360 Speaker 2: rush of companies trying to take advantage of policy and 123 00:07:00,360 --> 00:07:04,239 Speaker 2: incentives that could well be changed when the new government 124 00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:07,360 Speaker 2: comes in place, then we expect to see a real 125 00:07:07,480 --> 00:07:10,600 Speaker 2: slow down in the policy making process. This can be 126 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:14,720 Speaker 2: official periods of quiet time for policy makers, like in 127 00:07:14,760 --> 00:07:17,760 Speaker 2: the EU and the UK, where the current government can't 128 00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:21,040 Speaker 2: make big announcements of policies, or indeed the whole legister 129 00:07:21,640 --> 00:07:25,880 Speaker 2: shuts down. So this kind of likely to see, especially 130 00:07:25,880 --> 00:07:27,840 Speaker 2: in the second half of the year, real slow down 131 00:07:27,880 --> 00:07:30,600 Speaker 2: in policy making, which is really tricky because as I 132 00:07:30,640 --> 00:07:33,880 Speaker 2: mentioned earlier, we don't have that long un till governments 133 00:07:33,960 --> 00:07:36,520 Speaker 2: need to meet their twenty thirty climate plans and they 134 00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:39,320 Speaker 2: really need to put in place these policies, especially in 135 00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:42,640 Speaker 2: slow to take action sectors like say industry. 136 00:07:43,120 --> 00:07:45,720 Speaker 1: So this year, not only are we really expecting to 137 00:07:45,720 --> 00:07:48,960 Speaker 1: see a lot less activity in some of these markets, 138 00:07:49,040 --> 00:07:52,160 Speaker 1: we're also expecting to see a lot less activity in 139 00:07:52,280 --> 00:07:54,960 Speaker 1: terms of the policy that's coming through. And that is 140 00:07:55,160 --> 00:07:58,640 Speaker 1: certainly seen in the United States. You know, Derek, maybe 141 00:07:58,680 --> 00:08:00,720 Speaker 1: you can tell us a little bit about what this 142 00:08:00,840 --> 00:08:04,280 Speaker 1: year is likely to hold in the US in the 143 00:08:04,360 --> 00:08:05,360 Speaker 1: run up to the election. 144 00:08:06,120 --> 00:08:08,880 Speaker 3: So in the United States, it's looking like another very 145 00:08:08,920 --> 00:08:11,840 Speaker 3: competitive election this year at the presidential level. We're likely 146 00:08:11,880 --> 00:08:15,200 Speaker 3: to see a rematch between former President Donald Trump, Republican 147 00:08:15,440 --> 00:08:17,640 Speaker 3: likes the oil and gas industry, not as big a 148 00:08:17,640 --> 00:08:20,240 Speaker 3: fan of the clean energy transition, and President Biden, the 149 00:08:20,280 --> 00:08:24,080 Speaker 3: incumbent Democrat president who passed the Infliction Reduction Acts, the 150 00:08:24,200 --> 00:08:28,160 Speaker 3: US's signature climate and indugery subsidy program. Both houses of Congress, 151 00:08:28,200 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 3: the House and the Senate are likely to be competitive 152 00:08:30,440 --> 00:08:32,760 Speaker 3: as well, and what that means is nobody wants to 153 00:08:32,800 --> 00:08:36,640 Speaker 3: do anything particularly controversial. As such, we can expect lawmaking 154 00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:38,920 Speaker 3: to effectively shut down for the rest of the year, 155 00:08:39,160 --> 00:08:41,960 Speaker 3: with a few small exceptions of by partisan interest, like 156 00:08:41,960 --> 00:08:45,600 Speaker 3: a potential tax deal that would improve business tax expenses 157 00:08:45,800 --> 00:08:49,440 Speaker 3: for a variety of different companies. Now, when it happens 158 00:08:49,440 --> 00:08:52,439 Speaker 3: when the election takes place is a very different story. 159 00:08:52,520 --> 00:08:55,200 Speaker 3: There's a pretty stark choice between Biden, who would likely 160 00:08:55,360 --> 00:09:00,360 Speaker 3: continue his path of engaging with US allies and continuing 161 00:09:00,440 --> 00:09:04,240 Speaker 3: to subsidize clean electricity build out, grid build out, and Trump, 162 00:09:04,480 --> 00:09:07,640 Speaker 3: who's vowed to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act and double 163 00:09:07,679 --> 00:09:09,720 Speaker 3: down on oil and gas drilling and exports. 164 00:09:10,160 --> 00:09:12,240 Speaker 1: So you mentioned that Trump has promised to repeal the 165 00:09:12,240 --> 00:09:14,880 Speaker 1: Inflation Reduction Act, which is a bit surprising given that 166 00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:17,800 Speaker 1: many of the policies are actually benefiting what we would 167 00:09:17,800 --> 00:09:21,640 Speaker 1: consider to be read or predominantly voting Republican states. Can 168 00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:25,240 Speaker 1: you tell us whether or not that's even likely and 169 00:09:25,320 --> 00:09:28,240 Speaker 1: how possible it is to repeal the IRA. 170 00:09:28,280 --> 00:09:30,520 Speaker 3: I would say it's possible, but not likely. At the 171 00:09:30,600 --> 00:09:32,559 Speaker 3: end of the day, as you mentioned, you would need 172 00:09:32,559 --> 00:09:35,280 Speaker 3: both Houses of Congress and the President to all agree 173 00:09:35,280 --> 00:09:38,400 Speaker 3: to repeal the law, and with so many Republican constituencies 174 00:09:38,520 --> 00:09:41,400 Speaker 3: benefiting from the Inflation Reduction Act, it's unlikely that you 175 00:09:41,440 --> 00:09:43,679 Speaker 3: could really repeal it wholesale and get away with that. 176 00:09:43,880 --> 00:09:46,760 Speaker 3: In fact, many credits in the law, such as credits 177 00:09:46,760 --> 00:09:50,440 Speaker 3: for clean hydrogen and carbon capture, are pretty favorable to 178 00:09:50,480 --> 00:09:52,440 Speaker 3: the oil and gas industry, which tends to have a 179 00:09:52,440 --> 00:09:55,640 Speaker 3: lot of institutional links with Republican states and Republican politicians. 180 00:09:55,760 --> 00:09:58,520 Speaker 3: Which you're more likely to see is attempts at targeted repeal, 181 00:09:58,640 --> 00:10:02,120 Speaker 3: which require a large and united enough party across all 182 00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:05,240 Speaker 3: three veto points both Houses of Congress and the presidency 183 00:10:05,440 --> 00:10:08,360 Speaker 3: to achieve. Now that said, the president does have a 184 00:10:08,400 --> 00:10:12,160 Speaker 3: lot of autonomy to write or rewrite regulations within the 185 00:10:12,160 --> 00:10:15,560 Speaker 3: bounds of the law, so, for example, Trump could, out 186 00:10:15,559 --> 00:10:19,360 Speaker 3: of a focus on American industrialization and global competition over 187 00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:23,720 Speaker 3: emissions reductions, loosen some of the rules around clean hydrogen production, 188 00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:27,040 Speaker 3: likely resulting in emissions but creating potentially a more competitive 189 00:10:27,040 --> 00:10:30,120 Speaker 3: industry in the short term. There's also questions about electric 190 00:10:30,200 --> 00:10:33,680 Speaker 3: vehicle tax credits. Those have some pretty strict rules written 191 00:10:33,720 --> 00:10:36,920 Speaker 3: into them, trying to exclude Chinese companies, where the leaders 192 00:10:36,920 --> 00:10:40,080 Speaker 3: in the electric vehicle battery industry from benefiting. The Biden 193 00:10:40,080 --> 00:10:44,280 Speaker 3: administration has walked a narrow tightrope to enforce the law 194 00:10:44,400 --> 00:10:49,400 Speaker 3: while still allowing key technologies to flow into the US. Trump, however, 195 00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:52,120 Speaker 3: is more likely to tighten those so that Chinese companies 196 00:10:52,120 --> 00:10:54,520 Speaker 3: are completely excluded, probably to the detriment of the U 197 00:10:54,640 --> 00:10:58,800 Speaker 3: SEV industry. There's also questions about discretionary or voluntary spending 198 00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:01,560 Speaker 3: programs like the Department of Use Loan Program's office that 199 00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:04,720 Speaker 3: has hundreds of billions of dollars in loan guarantee authority 200 00:11:04,840 --> 00:11:07,640 Speaker 3: that President Trump could simply refuse to give out, and 201 00:11:07,679 --> 00:11:10,120 Speaker 3: that could slow down the deployment of new technologies that 202 00:11:10,160 --> 00:11:11,800 Speaker 3: aren't otherwise subsidized in the IRA. 203 00:11:12,520 --> 00:11:15,679 Speaker 1: The IRA has in many respects put the US kind 204 00:11:15,720 --> 00:11:18,720 Speaker 1: of central to many companies' strategy when it comes to 205 00:11:18,800 --> 00:11:24,040 Speaker 1: international climate policy. What is at stake from an international 206 00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:27,760 Speaker 1: policy standpoint with the outcomes of this US election. 207 00:11:28,280 --> 00:11:31,960 Speaker 2: So internationally, if you cast your mind back to Trump's 208 00:11:32,040 --> 00:11:36,040 Speaker 2: previous presidency, he withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement, 209 00:11:36,400 --> 00:11:39,880 Speaker 2: and so the Republicans have suggested that they would likely 210 00:11:40,120 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 2: try to do the same thing this time round if 211 00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:45,600 Speaker 2: a Republican president has put in place, if that were 212 00:11:45,640 --> 00:11:49,040 Speaker 2: to happen, So in the kind of short term, we've 213 00:11:49,040 --> 00:11:51,600 Speaker 2: got the COP twenty nine coming up at the end 214 00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:54,520 Speaker 2: of this year, so the new Republican president would not 215 00:11:54,559 --> 00:11:57,520 Speaker 2: be inaugurated by that time, but would have been elected 216 00:11:57,600 --> 00:12:00,240 Speaker 2: just a few days before COP twenty nine begins. So 217 00:12:00,440 --> 00:12:03,400 Speaker 2: if the wider and administration goes to COP and makes 218 00:12:03,400 --> 00:12:06,560 Speaker 2: any promises, this would severely undermine them. And in the 219 00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:10,280 Speaker 2: longer term, it would mean that any deal that's reached 220 00:12:10,520 --> 00:12:13,520 Speaker 2: at COP wouldn't cover the second biggest emitter. So I 221 00:12:13,520 --> 00:12:16,280 Speaker 2: think currently the US accounts are something like eleven percent 222 00:12:16,320 --> 00:12:20,040 Speaker 2: of global emissions, So that would put bigger ONUS onto 223 00:12:20,160 --> 00:12:22,920 Speaker 2: the parties that are still within the Paris Agreement and 224 00:12:22,960 --> 00:12:26,079 Speaker 2: make it harder to limit global warming to one point 225 00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:30,040 Speaker 2: five or two degrees above pre industrial levels. It also 226 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:33,880 Speaker 2: has implications in terms of climate finance for developing countries. 227 00:12:34,200 --> 00:12:37,120 Speaker 2: So we've seen the support that's been given to the 228 00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:41,360 Speaker 2: UN's Green Climate Funds really fluctuate in the last three 229 00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:45,679 Speaker 2: rounds of replenishment because of the previous US withdrawal. So 230 00:12:45,880 --> 00:12:49,599 Speaker 2: in the years when the US was still part of Paris, 231 00:12:49,760 --> 00:12:52,760 Speaker 2: it accounted for around a fifth to a quarter of 232 00:12:52,800 --> 00:12:56,400 Speaker 2: the finance that was contributed towards this fund. So we 233 00:12:56,440 --> 00:12:59,520 Speaker 2: could also see implications for these what we're known as 234 00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:04,000 Speaker 2: just detransition partnerships. So these have been a country driven 235 00:13:04,320 --> 00:13:09,520 Speaker 2: alliances between a developing country and various so called developed countries, 236 00:13:09,760 --> 00:13:13,160 Speaker 2: for example announced for South Africa and Indonesia. The US 237 00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:16,240 Speaker 2: has been part of that. So a US withdrawal from 238 00:13:16,280 --> 00:13:19,280 Speaker 2: the Powis Agreement would suggest that it would be less 239 00:13:19,320 --> 00:13:22,920 Speaker 2: willing to contribute to these funding mechanisms, which were kind 240 00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:25,400 Speaker 2: of deemed as to be one of the successes in 241 00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:28,680 Speaker 2: recent years in terms of making progress towards climate action. 242 00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:32,480 Speaker 1: Now, we could sit here and talk about the United 243 00:13:32,480 --> 00:13:34,600 Speaker 1: States all day, and I'm sure there are plenty of 244 00:13:34,640 --> 00:13:36,280 Speaker 1: other shows that are going to do just that. But 245 00:13:36,440 --> 00:13:39,600 Speaker 1: let's keep on moving through other parts of North America, 246 00:13:39,679 --> 00:13:43,320 Speaker 1: because there are a number of countries having elections this year, 247 00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:45,480 Speaker 1: as we stated at the beginning of the show. So 248 00:13:45,559 --> 00:13:48,320 Speaker 1: let's go next to Canada. What's happening in Canada, as 249 00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:49,719 Speaker 1: they're having an election this year too. 250 00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:53,360 Speaker 3: So Canada is having some provincial level elections that are 251 00:13:53,400 --> 00:13:56,439 Speaker 3: guaranteed to happen this year in three provinces which equate 252 00:13:56,480 --> 00:13:59,079 Speaker 3: to about nineteen percent of its population, British Columbia and 253 00:13:59,160 --> 00:14:03,320 Speaker 3: early leader in climate energy policy, Saskatchewan, and also the 254 00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:06,920 Speaker 3: Atlantic province of New Brunswick. In everyone where but New Brunswick, 255 00:14:06,920 --> 00:14:09,280 Speaker 3: there's not likely to be a changeover in New Brunswick. 256 00:14:09,360 --> 00:14:13,880 Speaker 3: You might see a decrease in investment in climate hostile politics, 257 00:14:13,880 --> 00:14:17,400 Speaker 3: you might say. More importantly, however, at the national level, 258 00:14:17,600 --> 00:14:20,440 Speaker 3: there may be an early election. One is due by 259 00:14:20,480 --> 00:14:24,000 Speaker 3: next year, but that depends on a lot of political factors. 260 00:14:24,240 --> 00:14:26,440 Speaker 3: The reason we want to flag this so early, however, 261 00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:30,200 Speaker 3: is it has major implications for Canada's carbon pricing system. 262 00:14:30,320 --> 00:14:32,480 Speaker 3: Canada has been an early leader in this space and 263 00:14:32,520 --> 00:14:35,480 Speaker 3: one of the few advanced democracies to independently pass a 264 00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:38,440 Speaker 3: strong carbon price, but it's been one of the major 265 00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:41,920 Speaker 3: political targets, I guess you could say for the Conservative 266 00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:44,800 Speaker 3: Party as run by Pierre Pauliev who's likely to win 267 00:14:44,840 --> 00:14:47,920 Speaker 3: the next election whenever it comes. He's promised to repeal 268 00:14:47,920 --> 00:14:50,200 Speaker 3: the carbon taxes his first act in office, and so 269 00:14:50,360 --> 00:14:54,480 Speaker 3: currently the government of Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is 270 00:14:54,640 --> 00:14:59,040 Speaker 3: rushing to finalize contracts for difference, which would essentially guarantee 271 00:14:59,040 --> 00:15:02,040 Speaker 3: a carbon price for s specific companies or projects long 272 00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:06,040 Speaker 3: after its own government leaves. So only one carbon contract 273 00:15:06,040 --> 00:15:09,520 Speaker 3: for difference has already been agreed for a carbon capture project, 274 00:15:09,640 --> 00:15:13,320 Speaker 3: and any new ones will be essential to ensuring the 275 00:15:13,400 --> 00:15:16,280 Speaker 3: long term legacy of the carbon price. Otherwise we're likely 276 00:15:16,320 --> 00:15:18,880 Speaker 3: to see a similar dynamic to Australia and other early 277 00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:22,120 Speaker 3: later in carbon pricing, which saw a switch over to 278 00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:27,120 Speaker 3: a more conservative government and the immediate repeal of that price, 279 00:15:27,560 --> 00:15:30,760 Speaker 3: leading to a sort of limited climate ambition for almost 280 00:15:30,760 --> 00:15:31,680 Speaker 3: a decade thereafter. 281 00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:35,160 Speaker 1: So let's talk next about Mexico, which is also having 282 00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:38,760 Speaker 1: an election and has really been a beneficial recipient of 283 00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:41,080 Speaker 1: some of the near shoring that's taken place as a 284 00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:44,600 Speaker 1: part of the US Inflation Reduction Act. Would this upcoming 285 00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:47,760 Speaker 1: election change any elements of that? And what does this 286 00:15:47,840 --> 00:15:49,720 Speaker 1: election mean for climate in Mexico. 287 00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:54,560 Speaker 2: So with the way that the Mexican political system works 288 00:15:54,800 --> 00:15:58,360 Speaker 2: is that the current president who's known as Amlo, cannot 289 00:15:58,400 --> 00:16:01,160 Speaker 2: stand again, so we know that will definitely be a 290 00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:05,400 Speaker 2: change in political leader. There are two main contenders now. 291 00:16:05,480 --> 00:16:09,000 Speaker 2: The contender that's kind of been the chosen successor, let's say, 292 00:16:09,040 --> 00:16:12,600 Speaker 2: is Cloudia Schambaum As she currently leads in the polls 293 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:17,840 Speaker 2: against the opposition candidate Galvez. So shamam could be somewhat 294 00:16:17,920 --> 00:16:21,080 Speaker 2: positive in terms of the climate transition in Mexico. So 295 00:16:21,240 --> 00:16:24,880 Speaker 2: Amlo during his years in control, has really efforts to 296 00:16:24,920 --> 00:16:27,560 Speaker 2: strengthen the powers of the state in the energy sector 297 00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:31,840 Speaker 2: and this has led to protracted legal and regulatory uncertainty, 298 00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:35,160 Speaker 2: which has a deterred private investment. And we've really seen 299 00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:38,720 Speaker 2: that in the renewable space where deployment has slowed down. 300 00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:41,480 Speaker 2: And also the kind of efforts to do near shuring. 301 00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:45,160 Speaker 2: So near shuring is where international companies set up more 302 00:16:45,200 --> 00:16:48,880 Speaker 2: production in Mexico, for example, to be closer to the 303 00:16:48,960 --> 00:16:51,120 Speaker 2: US so they can take advantage of some of the 304 00:16:51,160 --> 00:16:55,320 Speaker 2: subsidies that aren't offer under the IRA, so AMLO's chosen successor, 305 00:16:55,560 --> 00:17:00,960 Speaker 2: Shane Baum, is somewhat of an environmentalist and does support renewables, 306 00:17:01,080 --> 00:17:05,080 Speaker 2: but she is also defended Anaalos views on energy. So 307 00:17:05,520 --> 00:17:10,720 Speaker 2: if she does win, we would expecting minor policy improvements, 308 00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:14,680 Speaker 2: but they are unlikely to kind of result in significant changes, 309 00:17:14,800 --> 00:17:19,000 Speaker 2: whereas the opposition Galvez, if she is put in place, 310 00:17:19,119 --> 00:17:21,480 Speaker 2: then we could see more extensive changes. 311 00:17:21,800 --> 00:17:24,800 Speaker 1: Next, let's pivot Asia, and let's start in the most 312 00:17:24,840 --> 00:17:28,680 Speaker 1: populous country in the world, certainly important for global politics 313 00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:31,000 Speaker 1: and global climate. Let's talk about India. 314 00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:34,960 Speaker 2: So India now, actually, unlike some of the other elections 315 00:17:34,960 --> 00:17:37,040 Speaker 2: that we're going to be talking about, this one has 316 00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:40,800 Speaker 2: a more certain outcome. We do expect Modi to retain 317 00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:44,080 Speaker 2: power for the next five years and therefore we expect 318 00:17:44,080 --> 00:17:47,960 Speaker 2: relatively little change in terms of the policies for the 319 00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:50,240 Speaker 2: energy transition. But if you don't mind it or will 320 00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:53,280 Speaker 2: switch to one that is less certain, which is Indonesia. 321 00:17:53,560 --> 00:17:56,880 Speaker 2: So coming up in lesser than a month, there's elections 322 00:17:57,000 --> 00:18:00,800 Speaker 2: to vote for the new president and legislature. Current president 323 00:18:00,840 --> 00:18:04,240 Speaker 2: we can't stand again and his government has had like 324 00:18:04,280 --> 00:18:07,679 Speaker 2: a significant impact on energy transition policy. So they have 325 00:18:07,760 --> 00:18:10,919 Speaker 2: pledged to increase clean energy investments and phase out coal. 326 00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:14,600 Speaker 2: Out of the three candidates, so Buswayden is probably the 327 00:18:14,600 --> 00:18:18,359 Speaker 2: most progressive candidate. He would be likely to see more 328 00:18:18,680 --> 00:18:22,960 Speaker 2: substantive changes in favor of climate policy. However, the other 329 00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:27,440 Speaker 2: two candidates are less ambitious in terms of promoting climate action. 330 00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:30,399 Speaker 2: Of the two, Pronoos seems to be more committed to 331 00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:33,280 Speaker 2: reducing coal use than Serbianto. But the other thing to 332 00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:36,400 Speaker 2: flag is something I mentioned earlier, So Indonesia has one 333 00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:40,480 Speaker 2: of these jet pees, these just energy transition energy plans, 334 00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:42,840 Speaker 2: So that's sort of crucial stage at the moment, and 335 00:18:42,920 --> 00:18:45,920 Speaker 2: that the government is actually trying to finalize right now. 336 00:18:45,920 --> 00:18:49,160 Speaker 2: The investment plan and the plan that they actually released 337 00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:51,040 Speaker 2: at the end of last year was a step in 338 00:18:51,080 --> 00:18:53,560 Speaker 2: the right direction, but it is at a crucial stage 339 00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:56,080 Speaker 2: of kind of devising what they're going to do. So 340 00:18:56,119 --> 00:18:58,280 Speaker 2: the outcome of the election could have some kind of 341 00:18:58,520 --> 00:19:00,000 Speaker 2: implications for that as well. 342 00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:04,520 Speaker 1: That Indonesia elections coming up very soon too. It's February fourteenth, 343 00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:07,680 Speaker 1: so right around the bend. And if anybody wants to 344 00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:10,560 Speaker 1: dig back through the switch down archives, we actually had 345 00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:13,679 Speaker 1: one of the candidates Nsbezweida and here on this show, 346 00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:17,000 Speaker 1: I believe at the beginning of last year. But pivoting now, 347 00:19:17,480 --> 00:19:21,960 Speaker 1: we're rather continuing with our coverage of elections around the world. 348 00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:25,639 Speaker 1: Let's next talk about what's happening in South Korea with 349 00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:27,600 Speaker 1: an election due in April. 350 00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:32,120 Speaker 2: Yes, so this is a legislature election. So currently the 351 00:19:32,160 --> 00:19:36,200 Speaker 2: People Power Party the PPP controls the presidency and they're 352 00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:39,600 Speaker 2: hoping to kind of regained ground in the parliament from 353 00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:43,480 Speaker 2: the main opposition party, the Democratic Party of Korea, which 354 00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:47,720 Speaker 2: won a landslide victory in the last election in twenty twenty. 355 00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:50,960 Speaker 2: So the short answer is, actually, regardless of the outcome, 356 00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:54,720 Speaker 2: there's no expectation to see a major shift in climate ambition. 357 00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:58,920 Speaker 2: We'd expect them to keep their twenty thirty missions target 358 00:19:59,040 --> 00:20:01,880 Speaker 2: and their broad ending see their Climate Plan. We could 359 00:20:01,880 --> 00:20:06,000 Speaker 2: see some moderate changes though, So if the president unions 360 00:20:06,520 --> 00:20:10,280 Speaker 2: PPP the People Power Party actually do manage to regain 361 00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:13,520 Speaker 2: ground in the National Assembly, then we could see vast 362 00:20:13,600 --> 00:20:17,720 Speaker 2: tracked support for the pro nuclear policies, which would be 363 00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:22,159 Speaker 2: expense of renewables. However, if the DPK kind of maintains 364 00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:25,760 Speaker 2: its dominance in their assembly, then it's bills that are 365 00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:30,240 Speaker 2: seeking to promote renewables and carbon pricing could gain momentum. 366 00:20:30,560 --> 00:20:32,640 Speaker 1: So the next election likely to take place this year, 367 00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:34,760 Speaker 1: although we don't yet have a date, because that is 368 00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:37,600 Speaker 1: how it works here in the UK. What is likely 369 00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:40,840 Speaker 1: to happen in the United Kingdom, or rather what's up 370 00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:44,359 Speaker 1: its stake when it comes to Labor versus Conservatives in 371 00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:45,120 Speaker 1: the year head. 372 00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:49,080 Speaker 2: So you're absolutely right. The UK is unlike the US, 373 00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:51,800 Speaker 2: there's no kind of a set date for an election. 374 00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:55,680 Speaker 2: We know it needs to happen by January twenty twenty five, 375 00:20:56,040 --> 00:20:59,439 Speaker 2: and it seems likely will happen this year because the 376 00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:02,320 Speaker 2: parties and want to do all their campaigning over Christmas. 377 00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:06,160 Speaker 2: Very likely, and more pertinently, the Prime Minister Isshisunak has 378 00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:08,600 Speaker 2: indicated that it's likely to be in the second half 379 00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:10,480 Speaker 2: of the year. But that does mean that we could 380 00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:14,640 Speaker 2: have increased uncertainty really over most of this year. So 381 00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:19,200 Speaker 2: currently the Labor Party is ahead of the incumbent Conservatives 382 00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:21,399 Speaker 2: in the polls, but we do expect this gap to 383 00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:23,760 Speaker 2: narrow as we get closer to the election, because that 384 00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:26,679 Speaker 2: does tend to happen. We do think that climate and 385 00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:30,320 Speaker 2: biodiversity is likely to be a key issue for this election, 386 00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:34,360 Speaker 2: and if the current poles are incorrect and the incumbent 387 00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:37,800 Speaker 2: government is re elected, however, we don't expect to see 388 00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:41,959 Speaker 2: significant changes in policy support. However, on the bright side 389 00:21:42,080 --> 00:21:45,720 Speaker 2: for the energy transition, if the Labor government or other 390 00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:49,000 Speaker 2: if Labor Party is indeed elected and made government or 391 00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:52,280 Speaker 2: at least the majority party, we would expect them to 392 00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:56,640 Speaker 2: boost support four policies to cut emissions and to tackle 393 00:21:56,760 --> 00:22:01,119 Speaker 2: nature loss. So our Labor leader Skistar House pledged to 394 00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:04,600 Speaker 2: so called speed ahead with green investments. However, there have 395 00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:07,760 Speaker 2: been statements made by various members the Labor Party more 396 00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:10,800 Speaker 2: recently that suggested some of these plans could be watered 397 00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:14,760 Speaker 2: down depending on the state of the public finances. However, 398 00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:18,199 Speaker 2: there are some actions pledged by the Labor Party so 399 00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:23,200 Speaker 2: farther don't actually rely on considerable spending, things like revamping 400 00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:26,439 Speaker 2: the planning system for onshore renewable projects, and that could 401 00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:29,760 Speaker 2: have a credible impact in terms of the energy transition. 402 00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:32,280 Speaker 1: And I'm just thinking back to what you said earlier 403 00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:35,000 Speaker 1: in the show about how in election years you can 404 00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:38,640 Speaker 1: see climate policy or policy really of all kinds slow down, 405 00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:41,199 Speaker 1: and not as much happened within the government. So the 406 00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:44,400 Speaker 1: downside in some respects of Sunak saying that there will 407 00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:46,280 Speaker 1: be an election but it won't be till the second 408 00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:48,600 Speaker 1: half of the year. Is this slow down effect in 409 00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:52,720 Speaker 1: the UK. In addition, now next thinking about the continent, 410 00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:56,320 Speaker 1: So the European Union have their own set of elections, 411 00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:59,359 Speaker 1: and the European Union is very significant because they set 412 00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:02,000 Speaker 1: the climate policy that would cover all of their member 413 00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:06,000 Speaker 1: states across that whole area. So what's happening in the EU. 414 00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:09,040 Speaker 2: So if you'll give me, if you'll bear with me 415 00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:12,000 Speaker 2: the kind of importance of what's happening this year and 416 00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:15,359 Speaker 2: recent trends. To understand it kind of requires some understanding 417 00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:19,399 Speaker 2: of how the EU works. So there are three main institutions. 418 00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:22,399 Speaker 2: So this year the European Parliament, so it's made up 419 00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:25,800 Speaker 2: of members of the European Parliament that are directly elected 420 00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:30,840 Speaker 2: by citizens. They have their scheduled elections in June. So 421 00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:32,919 Speaker 2: this has been kind of heralded as a make or 422 00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:35,760 Speaker 2: break vote not only for the European Union as a whole, 423 00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:39,560 Speaker 2: which sounds quite dramatic, but also for its net zero 424 00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:42,920 Speaker 2: plan known as the Green Deal. So current polls suggest 425 00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:45,560 Speaker 2: that the Parliament's going to see a significant shift to 426 00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:49,480 Speaker 2: the right, So the kind of center right European People's Party, 427 00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:53,119 Speaker 2: the EPP is set to remain the largest political group, 428 00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:56,760 Speaker 2: but may well again not secure sufficien seats for an 429 00:23:56,760 --> 00:24:00,520 Speaker 2: outright majority. Now, in the current parliament that's been in 430 00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:03,160 Speaker 2: place for the last four years, there's been an informal 431 00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:07,480 Speaker 2: coalition between the center right EPP and then the Socialists 432 00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:11,720 Speaker 2: and Democrats and the liberal renew Europe. However, we may 433 00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:15,080 Speaker 2: see that in fact in the next election the EPP 434 00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:20,080 Speaker 2: is the biggest party, it intends to switch to further 435 00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:24,200 Speaker 2: right parties like the ECR and ID, and these two 436 00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:27,720 Speaker 2: parties are likely to see significant gains if the polls 437 00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:30,719 Speaker 2: are correct in the elections, to the detriment of the 438 00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:35,320 Speaker 2: Greens and the Liberals. So this is particularly significant because 439 00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:38,560 Speaker 2: the most laws of the EU have to be passed 440 00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:41,439 Speaker 2: by both the European Parliament and the Council of the EU. 441 00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:44,840 Speaker 2: Council of the EU is made up of member state 442 00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:48,520 Speaker 2: governments or representatives. Now, in the last few years, the 443 00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:52,360 Speaker 2: European Parliament has tended to be the more ambitious party 444 00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:55,960 Speaker 2: in terms of promoting climate action compared with the Council, 445 00:24:56,160 --> 00:24:58,280 Speaker 2: but if we do have this shift to the right 446 00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:01,840 Speaker 2: in the Parliament, that they may become less supportive of 447 00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:06,639 Speaker 2: these policies. This is especially significant because we're at the 448 00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:09,240 Speaker 2: stage of where the EU has agreed the Green Deal 449 00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:11,760 Speaker 2: and its high level commitments, but it now needs to 450 00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:15,800 Speaker 2: pass all these detailed policies and concrete measures to achieve 451 00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:20,119 Speaker 2: those commitments, and we could see more pushback from some 452 00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:24,000 Speaker 2: European parliament political groups if this shift to the right 453 00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:27,880 Speaker 2: actually materializes. The thing to also mention is that, as 454 00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:30,520 Speaker 2: I said, the Council, which is the other co legislator, 455 00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:33,360 Speaker 2: that is also seeing its own shift to the right, 456 00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:36,120 Speaker 2: because you may well have heard in the news there 457 00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:40,640 Speaker 2: has been more support for populist and far right policies 458 00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:43,960 Speaker 2: in various member states of the EU, like the Netherlands 459 00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:46,560 Speaker 2: and Italy. So that could mean that the Council is 460 00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:49,920 Speaker 2: even less supportive than it has been previously in terms 461 00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:52,600 Speaker 2: of climate action. And the other thing to note is 462 00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:56,760 Speaker 2: that the third institution is the European Commission, which kind 463 00:25:56,760 --> 00:25:59,600 Speaker 2: of acts like the administrative arm. It comes up with 464 00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:02,639 Speaker 2: the proposals which are then approved by the Parliament and 465 00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:06,000 Speaker 2: the Council. Now the College of Commissioners so these are 466 00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:08,640 Speaker 2: kind of the heads of departments for the Commission. They 467 00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:11,680 Speaker 2: are also scheduled to change this year, and they also 468 00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:14,840 Speaker 2: tend to change as in like they're often not kept 469 00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:18,840 Speaker 2: on for subsequent terms, and the selection of those they're 470 00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:22,280 Speaker 2: selected by the Council and the Parliament. Therefore, they will 471 00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:26,040 Speaker 2: also depend on what's happening at national level, and therefore 472 00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:28,400 Speaker 2: this shift to the right at national level could effect 473 00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:32,000 Speaker 2: who's actually made into the new commissioners. So one thing 474 00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:34,600 Speaker 2: just to note as well is this could have implications 475 00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:38,920 Speaker 2: for a domestic or intra EU policy. But the EU 476 00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:43,000 Speaker 2: has also been probably one of the biggest advocates and 477 00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:46,119 Speaker 2: major economies who have pushed for climate action in the 478 00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:50,800 Speaker 2: international negotiations. So if we do see, say the US, 479 00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:54,959 Speaker 2: which is also pushed for bold climate action, and these negotiations, 480 00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:58,040 Speaker 2: we see the US say withdraw from the Paris Agreement 481 00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:01,640 Speaker 2: and the EU become less then this has even kind 482 00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:06,720 Speaker 2: of more further less optimistic grammifications for global climate deals 483 00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:07,320 Speaker 2: in the future. 484 00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:09,560 Speaker 1: One of the things that I've been hearing at events 485 00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:11,760 Speaker 1: and when I see people, they talk about how this 486 00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:14,959 Speaker 1: attention has shifted to the US because the Inflation Reduction 487 00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:19,240 Speaker 1: Act and that they're looking to Europe to essentially, at 488 00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:22,119 Speaker 1: this EU level past a different set of laws that 489 00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:24,960 Speaker 1: will make it a more attractive environment. Do you think 490 00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:28,280 Speaker 1: that with this potential shift to the right and change 491 00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:32,640 Speaker 1: in who's actually over there in Brussels, they'll essentially walk 492 00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:34,880 Speaker 1: away from that and that will no longer be part 493 00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:37,840 Speaker 1: of their strategy to attract investment. They won't be going 494 00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:42,080 Speaker 1: as fervently for those green dollars and those businesses that 495 00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:43,240 Speaker 1: are part of the transition. 496 00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:46,760 Speaker 2: I think it's not as click out as you might imagine, 497 00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:50,720 Speaker 2: because say the kind of center right and further right parties, 498 00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:54,600 Speaker 2: they often do support industry and companies, so they will 499 00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:57,200 Speaker 2: likely be in favor of attracting as much as investment 500 00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:02,360 Speaker 2: and support to local businesses possi. However, whether they want 501 00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:06,480 Speaker 2: to do it through substantive green support or say ambitious 502 00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:09,720 Speaker 2: climate regulations, that is less likely. So even if we 503 00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:12,399 Speaker 2: look at the center right political group the EVP in 504 00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:15,840 Speaker 2: the European Parliament, they have in the last four years 505 00:28:15,840 --> 00:28:19,520 Speaker 2: only voted for sixteen percent of the green policies that 506 00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:23,399 Speaker 2: came up, So it's quite uncertain, but it's less likely 507 00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:27,000 Speaker 2: that they were therefore advocate some of the more ambitious 508 00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:30,560 Speaker 2: policies that are up currently up for debate and being 509 00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:34,520 Speaker 2: devised by the European Commission to promote these green dollars 510 00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:37,680 Speaker 2: in terms of kind of industrial support that's focused on 511 00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:38,680 Speaker 2: the energies transition. 512 00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:41,640 Speaker 1: So one final country I'd love to hear more about 513 00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:44,760 Speaker 1: is South Africa. They've been having rolling blackouts and their 514 00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:49,080 Speaker 1: energy system is well controlled by a state owned utility ESCAM, 515 00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:52,000 Speaker 1: and there have been some changes there in terms of 516 00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:54,840 Speaker 1: trying to look towards a more secure energy system, and 517 00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:59,080 Speaker 1: their approaches included the incorporation of additional gas. Do we 518 00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:02,080 Speaker 1: think that this election is essentially one that could go 519 00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:06,200 Speaker 1: either way? And are there changes that we could essentially 520 00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:08,760 Speaker 1: be looking for when it comes to their energy policy 521 00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:11,360 Speaker 1: or is it more likely to be election year or 522 00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:12,880 Speaker 1: not a year of more of the same. 523 00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:16,480 Speaker 2: So yes, absolutely, this is a crucial election for South 524 00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:20,840 Speaker 2: Africa because we could actually see that the ruling African 525 00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:24,440 Speaker 2: National Congress that ANC, which has been in power since 526 00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:28,800 Speaker 2: nineteen ninety four, could see support wane and it could 527 00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:32,200 Speaker 2: lose its overall majority in the National Assembly. So we've started, 528 00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:36,120 Speaker 2: actually the ANC start to have talks with opposition groups 529 00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:40,920 Speaker 2: about potential alliances informal or formal. So, as you mentioned 530 00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:45,560 Speaker 2: es CON the state owned utility, it's seem significant financial 531 00:29:45,600 --> 00:29:48,120 Speaker 2: losses in the last few years as well of allegation 532 00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:51,440 Speaker 2: of mismanagement and corruption, and South Africa has had possibly 533 00:29:51,480 --> 00:29:54,640 Speaker 2: its worst year in terms of blackouts known as load 534 00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:57,720 Speaker 2: shedding over the last year. Energy is likely to be 535 00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:02,400 Speaker 2: at the heart of the this year. However, it's not 536 00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:05,720 Speaker 2: clear that we'll see significant change even if the ANC 537 00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:08,960 Speaker 2: does indeed lose its overall majority. So the ANC has 538 00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:11,160 Speaker 2: had a mixed record, I think it's fair to say, 539 00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:13,640 Speaker 2: and clean energy policy are shown by the kind of 540 00:30:13,640 --> 00:30:17,600 Speaker 2: fluctuations and support for its renewables auction program, and its 541 00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:22,040 Speaker 2: ministers have been criticized for blocking this path away from coal. 542 00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:25,520 Speaker 2: So if the election kind of weakens the ANC and 543 00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:28,880 Speaker 2: those other parties come in and they do have more 544 00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:32,239 Speaker 2: ambitious climate and energy policies, then we could seek more 545 00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:36,080 Speaker 2: support for unbundling es COM or indeed more support for 546 00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:39,200 Speaker 2: renewables and other kind of clean energy technologies. 547 00:30:39,880 --> 00:30:42,560 Speaker 1: Great well, thank you for taking us on this trip 548 00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:45,280 Speaker 1: really around the world and what is a momentous election year, 549 00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:47,640 Speaker 1: Vicky Derek, thank you very much for being here today. 550 00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:50,280 Speaker 2: Thank you very much for having us, Thank you very much. 551 00:30:50,360 --> 00:31:02,400 Speaker 1: Dinner Switched Down produced by Cam Gray with production assistance 552 00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:06,160 Speaker 1: from Kamala Shelling and Ulushi Kurunorate. 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