WEBVTT - MLB Futures: May Update (Ep. 87) 0:00:00.240 --> 0:00:15.400 It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros. 0:00:15.800 --> 0:00:18.439 Welcome in everybody to betting pros, and it is me, 0:00:18.560 --> 0:00:21.200 Joey p Joe Pizipo. We got a great show for 0:00:21.239 --> 0:00:23.360 you today, if you can believe it. 0:00:23.680 --> 0:00:24.720 Already a quarter of. 0:00:24.640 --> 0:00:27.400 The way through the Major League Baseball season and it's 0:00:27.440 --> 0:00:29.840 time to take some temperatures. So we're gonna take a 0:00:29.840 --> 0:00:34.240 look at some MLB bets thanks to betting pros consensus numbers, 0:00:34.360 --> 0:00:35.960 We're gonna take a look at the World Series. We're 0:00:35.960 --> 0:00:38.040 gonna take a look at division winners, or we're even 0:00:38.040 --> 0:00:40.159 gonna take a look at some MLB awards with a 0:00:40.320 --> 0:00:43.680 very very special guest and good friend of mine. You 0:00:43.680 --> 0:00:46.559 can see him every single Sunday on Sportscried with Me 0:00:46.640 --> 0:00:48.640 joeyp for the last year. How he put up with 0:00:48.720 --> 0:00:51.360 me for an entire year plus every single Sunday of 0:00:51.360 --> 0:00:54.120 his life, nobody knows. You could also check him out 0:00:54.120 --> 0:00:56.480 on The Better's Eye, which is a new show on 0:00:56.600 --> 0:00:59.960 MLB dot Com. It's also made appearances on MLB Network 0:01:00.040 --> 0:01:02.240 and some other cool MLB advanced media where they go 0:01:02.280 --> 0:01:04.440 through the best bets of the day. And you may 0:01:04.520 --> 0:01:08.080 also remember him and see him currently in the wrestling 0:01:08.160 --> 0:01:11.440 world calling matches on Impact Wrestling, and of course he 0:01:11.520 --> 0:01:14.520 was a WWE superstar, but he's always a superstar in 0:01:14.560 --> 0:01:17.840 my heart. He's the one, the only Matt Striker. Matti 0:01:17.959 --> 0:01:20.720 bonus time with me. What kind of bet did you lose? 0:01:20.800 --> 0:01:21.480 That's the question. 0:01:22.680 --> 0:01:25.880 And then the glowing accolades you forgot to include, friend, 0:01:26.280 --> 0:01:28.520 But fair enough, man, that of all the things I've 0:01:28.520 --> 0:01:30.360 achieved in my life, I think I'm having the most 0:01:30.400 --> 0:01:34.560 fun right now. Baseball betting is the thing. Everyone is 0:01:34.600 --> 0:01:37.280 accepting it, States are understanding it, and I think just 0:01:37.319 --> 0:01:40.200 as a society collectively, we're looking at it differently. This 0:01:40.360 --> 0:01:43.760 is fun and this can be done well if you 0:01:43.840 --> 0:01:45.000 have some inside information. 0:01:45.160 --> 0:01:48.240 So I'm down, man, absolutely, And you know what I 0:01:48.240 --> 0:01:51.320 should have led with friend, But and I usually like 0:01:51.320 --> 0:01:55.480 embarrassing you in public too. Yet yet I missed this opportunity. 0:01:55.480 --> 0:01:57.400 I'll be sure on Sunday to do it again. But 0:01:57.680 --> 0:01:59.760 Matt and I do a show every Sunday together. If 0:01:59.760 --> 0:02:02.640 you this kind of banter on sports grew from eight 0:02:02.680 --> 0:02:05.800 to ten am every single weekend, recapping the week that 0:02:05.960 --> 0:02:08.160 was a Major League baseball and looking ahead. And I 0:02:08.160 --> 0:02:10.200 think that new show you've got right now, The Better's 0:02:10.240 --> 0:02:11.000 Eye is terrific. 0:02:11.040 --> 0:02:13.040 You and Keith do a phenomenal job on it. I 0:02:13.040 --> 0:02:14.920 have seen it. You guys are crushing it. 0:02:14.960 --> 0:02:17.480 And like Matt said, I mean, betting on baseball now 0:02:17.960 --> 0:02:20.680 is such an acceptable thing, which is such a culture shock. 0:02:20.800 --> 0:02:23.320 I don't know about you, but coming from this world 0:02:23.320 --> 0:02:26.239 where all betting on baseball was such taboo to now 0:02:26.680 --> 0:02:28.720 on the bottom of MLB network, when you get the 0:02:28.720 --> 0:02:31.280 starting pitchers, you get the lines for the games, isn't 0:02:31.320 --> 0:02:32.520 that a little culture shock for you? 0:02:32.560 --> 0:02:34.680 Two? Yes and no. 0:02:35.120 --> 0:02:38.240 Again, As a society, we're moving to systemically remove things 0:02:38.320 --> 0:02:40.519 or remove things that we interpret to be systemic part 0:02:40.520 --> 0:02:42.640 of me. So with that said, there's good and bad 0:02:42.639 --> 0:02:45.440 in everything. But when you look at the joy of 0:02:45.520 --> 0:02:50.480 wagering on baseball, using math, using knowledge, using fandom, there 0:02:50.560 --> 0:02:53.880 is nothing back room about it. There is nothing wrong 0:02:54.160 --> 0:02:56.600 with it. So I think, with that regard, if that's 0:02:56.600 --> 0:02:59.480 the culture shocked, then good, let that shock dissipate. It's 0:02:59.520 --> 0:03:03.400 about knowing that Clay Ray really hits that slider seventy 0:03:03.440 --> 0:03:06.160 three percent of the time, and picture A really throws 0:03:06.160 --> 0:03:06.800 that slider. 0:03:07.040 --> 0:03:08.680 Here's some money on math. 0:03:09.520 --> 0:03:13.520 Ah, money on math from the teacher, from the former professor. 0:03:13.560 --> 0:03:15.520 I love that money on math. That's gonna be his 0:03:15.600 --> 0:03:18.440 new hashtag and all right, stuff like, so write it down. 0:03:18.280 --> 0:03:18.880 Get it in there. 0:03:18.880 --> 0:03:23.440 All right, let's start with some player futures here for MVP, 0:03:23.560 --> 0:03:26.280 and we'll start in the American League. The consensus betting 0:03:26.360 --> 0:03:29.480 pros number is plus one sixty for Mike Trout. He 0:03:29.560 --> 0:03:32.000 is still the favorite and still a wide favorite at that. 0:03:32.440 --> 0:03:35.160 It varies in place to place, but typically one sixties 0:03:35.200 --> 0:03:38.960 about that number you're getting, You're getting Shoyotani now creeping 0:03:38.960 --> 0:03:41.520 in is the number two consensus at plus seven hundred, 0:03:41.600 --> 0:03:44.880 Vladgermero at ten to one, and then young Carlos Stanton 0:03:44.920 --> 0:03:47.400 after this incredible hot two weeks that he's put together 0:03:47.680 --> 0:03:50.600 at plus eighteen. Now, Stan would be a great story 0:03:50.600 --> 0:03:52.800 for MVP, but we all know all the injuries are 0:03:52.880 --> 0:03:55.760 concerned Byron Buxton just a week ago before his injury 0:03:56.120 --> 0:03:58.800 was actually the number two or three guy, and my 0:03:58.920 --> 0:04:01.120 guy show Hao Tom. He's still sticking around now. I 0:04:01.160 --> 0:04:03.120 know he's got to start tonight. We'll see how that goes. 0:04:03.200 --> 0:04:05.520 But is it still Trout or the field for you? 0:04:05.640 --> 0:04:07.360 And is there somebody in the field that you think 0:04:07.680 --> 0:04:09.640 right now is set up as a good wager, is 0:04:09.680 --> 0:04:12.080 it Otani because he's so unique at seven to one. 0:04:12.840 --> 0:04:14.960 So I was really excited when you text me to 0:04:15.000 --> 0:04:17.760 tell me the content of this discussion, because when you 0:04:17.800 --> 0:04:20.920 make futures, especially on divisional winners, and we're going to 0:04:20.960 --> 0:04:23.560 talk about that. I have a particular system that I've used. 0:04:23.600 --> 0:04:27.000 It seems to work as far as individual awards. Yes 0:04:27.080 --> 0:04:29.280 you have your chalk guys, and yes you can throw 0:04:29.320 --> 0:04:30.880 down on them at the beginning of the season, a 0:04:30.920 --> 0:04:32.840 quarterway through the season, halfway through the season, so on 0:04:32.880 --> 0:04:35.160 and so forth, barring injury. But this is such a 0:04:35.200 --> 0:04:39.400 thickle category you mentioned Otani. No one really had a 0:04:39.480 --> 0:04:41.960 grasp on what this was going to look like, and 0:04:42.000 --> 0:04:44.840 we still don't because the pitching is still in question, 0:04:44.920 --> 0:04:47.760 and that definitely lends itself to this conversation. I got like, 0:04:47.800 --> 0:04:49.599 Vlade Guerrero is a guy that I think people would 0:04:49.640 --> 0:04:51.960 be looking at before a first pitch was even thrown, 0:04:52.279 --> 0:04:52.719 and you're. 0:04:52.600 --> 0:04:53.960 Continue to look at him. 0:04:54.080 --> 0:04:56.800 Is there anyone else that's creeping up that you can say, hmm, 0:04:56.960 --> 0:05:00.320 maybe maybe be careful with the maybies you're giving your money. 0:05:00.640 --> 0:05:03.560 Snake shock in these MVP and cy Young type of 0:05:03.560 --> 0:05:07.440 plays until someone really emerges that you didn't see coming. 0:05:07.640 --> 0:05:10.080 Because again, if you're watching shows like this, chances are 0:05:10.120 --> 0:05:12.479 you know who these players are. The guy waiting for 0:05:12.520 --> 0:05:14.839 the bus might not, and that's whose money we're taking. 0:05:15.240 --> 0:05:17.120 Mm hmm, yeah, it's a look to me. 0:05:17.640 --> 0:05:19.760 When Otani was it I think twenty to one or 0:05:19.760 --> 0:05:21.800 fifteen to one in most places before the year, that 0:05:21.880 --> 0:05:23.120 was the time to take a shot on it. 0:05:23.160 --> 0:05:23.559 For sure. 0:05:23.839 --> 0:05:25.479 You know you lay one hundred on that. That's a 0:05:25.560 --> 0:05:28.840 lovely return because he has something that nobody else can offer, 0:05:28.880 --> 0:05:30.560 which is that two way player thing. It's just a 0:05:30.560 --> 0:05:33.080 matter of whether or not he can be good enough 0:05:33.080 --> 0:05:35.320 at both to really make that sort of headway. And 0:05:35.320 --> 0:05:37.919 it's so ironic that the favorite is the guy on 0:05:37.960 --> 0:05:40.039 his own team, which we often say, oh, it's so 0:05:40.080 --> 0:05:41.760 hard to separate when you have two guys on the 0:05:41.800 --> 0:05:44.200 same team. But right now, Jared Walsh might be the 0:05:44.200 --> 0:05:46.920 best angel swing in a bat currently, So who knows 0:05:46.960 --> 0:05:49.359 what's going on. Let's go to the National League side. 0:05:49.400 --> 0:05:51.920 A little bit of a wrinkle here lately because de Gram, 0:05:51.960 --> 0:05:53.839 who you and I have been talking about as a 0:05:53.839 --> 0:05:56.920 possible MVP candidate. He goes to the IL, but Ron 0:05:57.000 --> 0:05:59.160 Lacuney is still the favorite plus two seventy five. De 0:05:59.240 --> 0:06:02.600 Grom still can census around eight hundred. Some places might 0:06:02.600 --> 0:06:04.600 even take that down depending on the injury. Right now 0:06:04.640 --> 0:06:06.840 and wait and see what goes on. Tatis is at 0:06:06.880 --> 0:06:08.960 plus eight to fifty and then my boy Juan Soto 0:06:09.000 --> 0:06:10.600 has floated all the way at ten to one. 0:06:11.080 --> 0:06:12.240 So here's my question. 0:06:12.320 --> 0:06:16.200 We know this is a narrative award, a media award. 0:06:16.560 --> 0:06:20.240 Matt Striker, do you think that this whole to Fernando 0:06:20.440 --> 0:06:24.760 Tatis playing through this shoulder injury, this very intense injury. 0:06:25.120 --> 0:06:28.040 If the Padres do continue to play well and the 0:06:28.080 --> 0:06:32.360 Dodgers continue to play under expectations, and let's say something 0:06:32.440 --> 0:06:35.800 magical happens where the Padres are right there even last 0:06:35.800 --> 0:06:38.599 week or two of the season with them, is Tatus 0:06:38.640 --> 0:06:40.640 at plus eight fifty. The way to get in right 0:06:40.640 --> 0:06:44.159 now on that, because that is a narrative that certainly plays. 0:06:44.839 --> 0:06:49.360 It does, but again, please use logic and not emotion. 0:06:49.600 --> 0:06:51.120 I grew up with four sisters. 0:06:51.240 --> 0:06:55.920 Yes, how did you ever get out? Where was any 0:06:55.960 --> 0:06:56.360 of the logic? 0:06:56.400 --> 0:06:57.960 So it's all aside. 0:06:58.000 --> 0:07:00.640 Actually, there are times where where rule with your heart 0:07:00.720 --> 0:07:02.520 is the right thing to do, but in this regard 0:07:02.560 --> 0:07:02.839 it's not. 0:07:02.960 --> 0:07:05.240 Let's not get philosophical. I think you make up a 0:07:05.240 --> 0:07:06.200 great point here, though. 0:07:06.240 --> 0:07:08.080 If it continues to be the way it is and 0:07:08.120 --> 0:07:10.040 the padres are there at the end of the conversation, 0:07:10.160 --> 0:07:12.520 in a perfect world both soda and akunya are at 0:07:12.640 --> 0:07:16.040 least somewhere on a portion of someone's tongue in this conversation, 0:07:16.120 --> 0:07:19.160 then yes, I can certainly see people saying, wow, I 0:07:19.200 --> 0:07:21.720 got in on tatoos at that number right in the 0:07:21.760 --> 0:07:24.120 middle of May. I'm the smartest person in the world. 0:07:25.400 --> 0:07:27.640 The thing about the nl MVP race is that there 0:07:27.720 --> 0:07:30.800 was always going to be three or four places where 0:07:30.800 --> 0:07:31.760 you could put a chip. 0:07:32.200 --> 0:07:33.760 Now you're trying to narrow it down. 0:07:33.760 --> 0:07:37.320 There's still three, maybe four places you can put a chip. 0:07:37.440 --> 0:07:38.840 Let's have this conversation again. 0:07:38.920 --> 0:07:42.480 Hopefully I'll come back on maybe June first, because right 0:07:42.520 --> 0:07:45.120 now I'm walking past this table and I want to 0:07:45.120 --> 0:07:46.840 put a chip down. I just don't know where to 0:07:46.880 --> 0:07:49.040 put that chip. So I've learned in my years on 0:07:49.080 --> 0:07:51.480 this planet. I put that chip back in my pocket. 0:07:51.600 --> 0:07:54.280 I wait, let these players show me something I can't 0:07:54.320 --> 0:07:55.240 show them anything. 0:07:55.520 --> 0:07:57.800 I don't know if Acunya has done that much to 0:07:57.840 --> 0:08:00.240 separate himself that much from the herd, which is kind 0:08:00.240 --> 0:08:02.320 of interesting to me. That's actually the chalk is the 0:08:02.320 --> 0:08:04.880 one I like the least amount here, Whereas that's why 0:08:04.920 --> 0:08:07.400 I kind of go towards Tatis, because you know, the 0:08:07.440 --> 0:08:09.920 first week back, everybody was questioning, oh, my goodness, is 0:08:09.920 --> 0:08:12.160 gonna work? And then he's been hitting home runs. He 0:08:12.200 --> 0:08:14.320 looks like tattis maybe two hands on the bat is. 0:08:14.320 --> 0:08:15.920 Actually a good thing. Who would have thought that? 0:08:16.920 --> 0:08:19.320 And you know what a Juan Soto? Yeah, and fundamentally 0:08:19.360 --> 0:08:21.200 it is. And then there's one soda at the ten 0:08:21.240 --> 0:08:23.640 to one. Who I mean right there, he was at 0:08:23.640 --> 0:08:25.160 the beginning of the season, right neck and neck with 0:08:25.200 --> 0:08:25.880 all these guys. 0:08:25.880 --> 0:08:28.160 So this is an interesting time and Matt's kind of 0:08:28.200 --> 0:08:28.520 right here. 0:08:28.600 --> 0:08:31.080 National League really hasn't shown itself enough yet where there 0:08:31.080 --> 0:08:33.440 hasn't been even a clear separator, and the guy that 0:08:33.480 --> 0:08:34.880 they got at the top, I don't know how much 0:08:34.880 --> 0:08:37.560 of a separator he is. Speaking of tight races too, 0:08:37.600 --> 0:08:40.440 you've got al Cy Young's pretty tight right now. Plus 0:08:40.480 --> 0:08:43.280 one fifty for Garrett Cole, plus three twenty five for 0:08:43.320 --> 0:08:46.520 Shane Bieber, and then plus four fifty for Tyler Glass, 0:08:46.520 --> 0:08:48.920 now with a ten to one Carlos Rodon, who's got 0:08:48.920 --> 0:08:51.720 a better er than anybody, and may and d be 0:08:51.800 --> 0:08:54.440 the leader for comeback player of the Year. But in 0:08:54.480 --> 0:08:57.280 your opinion, does he have a shot here at cy Young? 0:08:57.320 --> 0:09:00.560 I mean, statistically speaking, he's right there with these guys, 0:09:00.559 --> 0:09:03.760 if not better in some categories. But Bieber, Cole, Glass 0:09:03.800 --> 0:09:05.320 and I will certainly get a lot more pub I 0:09:05.360 --> 0:09:05.800 feel like. 0:09:06.480 --> 0:09:09.000 One thousand percent. Now your feelings are correct. It goes back. 0:09:09.040 --> 0:09:12.240 Sometimes ruling with emotion is a good thing. So but again, 0:09:12.280 --> 0:09:15.520 look at the calendar man middle of May. If Rodn 0:09:15.760 --> 0:09:20.560 gives me sixteen and eight and an era under four 0:09:21.360 --> 0:09:24.640 and the no hitter and no one else is really 0:09:24.920 --> 0:09:27.560 lights out, Oh my goodness, gracious, Like for some reason, 0:09:27.679 --> 0:09:31.160 if Cole or Bieber falter in their last six starts 0:09:31.160 --> 0:09:33.560 I'm making it up, then maybe, But do you see 0:09:33.600 --> 0:09:38.000 how far fetched even the it is, the illogical pontification 0:09:38.200 --> 0:09:41.679 is but interesting on numbers. And this is what I've learned, 0:09:41.800 --> 0:09:44.400 especially now that betting is becoming more and more public, 0:09:44.440 --> 0:09:46.240 and more and more people are putting their eyes and 0:09:46.240 --> 0:09:48.480 their talents on it. Look at Cole's number and look 0:09:48.480 --> 0:09:51.760 at Bieber's number. It's pretty much double, isn't it. You 0:09:51.800 --> 0:09:52.320 mentioned it's. 0:09:52.280 --> 0:09:54.840 Fifty plus three twenty five. It varies in some spots. 0:09:54.520 --> 0:09:56.480 But you're right. So think of what the book is saying. 0:09:56.559 --> 0:09:59.360 Now, is that so much on the picture or is 0:09:59.400 --> 0:10:02.040 it about the win equity and the team that they're on. 0:10:02.080 --> 0:10:06.360 And if that's the case, was Cleveland is Cleveland? Who 0:10:06.360 --> 0:10:09.480 you thought they were in April or March? You have 0:10:09.559 --> 0:10:11.839 to ask yourself that question. The Yankees are exactly where 0:10:11.840 --> 0:10:13.640 they're supposed to be in May, so I get why 0:10:13.640 --> 0:10:14.440 that numbers there. 0:10:14.760 --> 0:10:17.800 But the Bieber thing, it feels too good. 0:10:18.840 --> 0:10:19.840 It feels too good. 0:10:19.880 --> 0:10:20.240 I don't know. 0:10:20.240 --> 0:10:22.600 I didn't realize that was a problem. I always thought, 0:10:22.600 --> 0:10:23.199 we want to think. 0:10:23.240 --> 0:10:26.000 So it's a problem, my friend, Oh it's a problem. Okay, 0:10:26.640 --> 0:10:29.120 there's always something. It's always a catch every single time, 0:10:29.160 --> 0:10:31.800 all right. So when we're looking at the AlSi young 0:10:31.840 --> 0:10:33.560 and again, this is why you go to betting pros, 0:10:33.600 --> 0:10:37.160 because if you like Bieber, there's some spots, like, for instance, 0:10:37.160 --> 0:10:39.040 on Fandle, you can get them at plus three eighty. 0:10:39.120 --> 0:10:42.559 Right now, that's that's great, And. 0:10:42.520 --> 0:10:45.000 That's why Betting Pros is so good because you get 0:10:45.040 --> 0:10:47.760 that opportunity to say, well, I kind of like this, 0:10:47.800 --> 0:10:49.840 where can I find the best odds? And again I 0:10:49.920 --> 0:10:52.280 encourage everybody to go to bettingpros dot com to do that, 0:10:52.400 --> 0:10:55.000 because that's how you kind of find the best book 0:10:55.040 --> 0:10:57.480 for the best bet that you want to put out there. 0:10:57.760 --> 0:11:00.520 Let's move and switch gears here to the Nash for 0:11:00.520 --> 0:11:02.920 a second, if we may. And obviously the National League 0:11:02.920 --> 0:11:04.840 de Grom has been so dominant, but now we have 0:11:04.880 --> 0:11:06.920 a little bit of a question that's creeped in here 0:11:06.960 --> 0:11:09.960 with this injury. Now Mri was clean, they say they're 0:11:09.960 --> 0:11:12.120 gonna give him a real Iyel stint instead of trying 0:11:12.160 --> 0:11:15.520 to short term it. We'll see if that rectifies the problem. 0:11:15.960 --> 0:11:18.800 Minus won thirty six is the consensus betting Pro's number 0:11:18.800 --> 0:11:21.280 for him. Corbyn Burns is at five to one. He 0:11:21.400 --> 0:11:23.680 is just now coming back from his COVID stint, and 0:11:23.720 --> 0:11:26.280 then you got basically Trevor Bauer thirteen to one and 0:11:26.320 --> 0:11:29.520 Aaron Nola thirteen to one. Now, Aaron Nola has pitched 0:11:29.600 --> 0:11:32.720 incredibly well this year, and I feel like nobody's really 0:11:32.760 --> 0:11:35.160 talking about it. It's kind of why the Phillies have 0:11:35.240 --> 0:11:38.760 hung around where they have in the standings, and Corbyn burns. 0:11:38.800 --> 0:11:41.440 We all know how good he's been, so right now 0:11:41.920 --> 0:11:43.960 is it a matter of wait and see on this 0:11:44.080 --> 0:11:46.680 de gram health or do you want to take action 0:11:46.960 --> 0:11:50.160 now and maybe go with somebody not name Jacob de 0:11:50.240 --> 0:11:53.559 Gram before possibly this number starts to shrink if de 0:11:53.640 --> 0:11:56.720 Gram misses any significant time or struggles on his return. 0:11:57.679 --> 0:12:00.920 So this is what the sharks or the smart people 0:12:00.920 --> 0:12:02.680 in the betting world are talking about. I think it 0:12:02.679 --> 0:12:05.760 was just yesterday Keith, myself and Colin Wilson were talking 0:12:05.800 --> 0:12:08.520 about it on the Better's Eye and yes, now is 0:12:08.559 --> 0:12:12.120 the time to see where you can get some value. 0:12:12.520 --> 0:12:15.000 I believe was Colin brought up look at Brandon Woodriff, 0:12:15.080 --> 0:12:17.760 maybe for a hot session. See if everything's starting to 0:12:17.800 --> 0:12:21.959 melt away. Who remains standing? I posited Jack Flaherty. His 0:12:22.080 --> 0:12:22.719 whip is just. 0:12:22.679 --> 0:12:25.160 To tick over one. I think like one point two. 0:12:25.280 --> 0:12:26.839 Maybe that's the last start. 0:12:26.880 --> 0:12:29.760 But these are some guys that when everyone else falls away, 0:12:29.800 --> 0:12:32.120 should de Gram be injured and miss. 0:12:31.960 --> 0:12:33.520 Some time, and I don't want to say it's like, 0:12:33.520 --> 0:12:34.320 don't say no hitter. 0:12:35.120 --> 0:12:36.640 These are the names you gotta start to look at 0:12:36.720 --> 0:12:39.240 and they're gonna have some nice plus numbers right next 0:12:39.280 --> 0:12:39.920 to their names. 0:12:40.000 --> 0:12:43.760 So now's the time to start shopping. I like it shopping, 0:12:43.800 --> 0:12:45.440 But you put stuff in the cart. Maybe you're not 0:12:45.480 --> 0:12:46.120 the check out yet? 0:12:46.160 --> 0:12:46.760 Is that what you mean? 0:12:47.040 --> 0:12:48.760 Sure? How many times have you done that? I mean, listen, 0:12:48.840 --> 0:12:51.280 in college, I used to go shopping under the influence. 0:12:51.400 --> 0:12:53.760 I don't you get that? 0:12:53.920 --> 0:12:55.559 And you realize how much mine do I have? Do 0:12:55.679 --> 0:12:58.600 I need seven box of the fudge covered Oreos? Yes, 0:12:58.760 --> 0:13:00.400 let's put back the milk and break you know what 0:13:00.480 --> 0:13:00.760 I mean? 0:13:00.960 --> 0:13:04.160 You choose important choices. Actually, I'm going food shopping right 0:13:04.200 --> 0:13:07.599 after this show is oil yea. I will pick you 0:13:07.720 --> 0:13:09.839 up a box for sure. All right, let's switch gears 0:13:09.840 --> 0:13:11.600 here and talk about some teams. Let's do a little 0:13:11.600 --> 0:13:15.360 al East. The Yankees still the favorites at minus one twelve, 0:13:15.679 --> 0:13:17.800 the Red Sox plus three point fifty, wh've had a 0:13:17.840 --> 0:13:20.160 really good start that I think surprised a lot of people. 0:13:20.840 --> 0:13:21.480 And then you've got the. 0:13:21.480 --> 0:13:23.360 Blue Jays of four to twenty five and the Rays 0:13:23.400 --> 0:13:25.600 who are in the World Series last year plus five hundred. 0:13:25.920 --> 0:13:26.880 Now, the thing with. 0:13:26.840 --> 0:13:29.560 The Rays is you're gonna see Louis Patino start to 0:13:29.600 --> 0:13:32.240 make some more starts here. He's starting actually today, and 0:13:32.320 --> 0:13:34.080 we'll see how he continues to ramp up. If he 0:13:34.120 --> 0:13:37.320 becomes a guy in that rotation consistently, they can add 0:13:37.320 --> 0:13:40.280 a Wander Franco. The Blue Jays right now still waiting 0:13:40.320 --> 0:13:42.920 for their big time investment, George Springer to pay dividends. 0:13:43.080 --> 0:13:44.679 So what do you make of the Al East here? 0:13:44.720 --> 0:13:47.920 Because the Yankees have gotten back on track, but their 0:13:47.960 --> 0:13:50.480 pitching is still suspect. I don't think any of these 0:13:50.520 --> 0:13:53.960 teams has the depth of rotation right now that you 0:13:54.000 --> 0:13:57.160 really feel good about. So what is the difference maker 0:13:57.160 --> 0:13:58.679 in this division for you? If you're trying to make 0:13:58.720 --> 0:13:59.160 a wager. 0:14:00.200 --> 0:14:01.800 So here's full transparency. 0:14:01.880 --> 0:14:04.120 This is how I bet division winners, and this is 0:14:04.120 --> 0:14:06.400 how I've done it ever since I really learned how 0:14:06.440 --> 0:14:06.839 to do this. 0:14:07.000 --> 0:14:09.000 So at the start of the season, let's just call 0:14:09.040 --> 0:14:09.959 a dollar a chip. 0:14:10.160 --> 0:14:13.000 Just for easy, I put a chip down on each 0:14:13.080 --> 0:14:16.640 team I think within a division has a chance, and 0:14:16.679 --> 0:14:20.000 then I revisit it four times a year. So at 0:14:20.160 --> 0:14:24.080 forty games, I then make another play. But during the 0:14:24.200 --> 0:14:26.960 time every ten games, I go back and I look 0:14:27.000 --> 0:14:29.000 at the team. So as of for instance, the Yankees. 0:14:29.000 --> 0:14:30.920 I had a chip down on them on April first. 0:14:31.120 --> 0:14:33.560 After ten games, I went back and look, I put 0:14:33.560 --> 0:14:35.760 an X next to them because they weren't performing the 0:14:35.800 --> 0:14:38.760 way I wanted them to going After another ten games, 0:14:38.920 --> 0:14:39.480 maybe they are. 0:14:39.520 --> 0:14:42.040 You put a check next to them. Come forty games. 0:14:42.040 --> 0:14:45.000 The team that I originally had intended upon has as 0:14:45.080 --> 0:14:48.200 many checks upon it as it should. I double down 0:14:48.240 --> 0:14:50.360 on that team, and that's a good way to look 0:14:50.400 --> 0:14:52.680 at it. So with the Yankees, they weren't doing it 0:14:52.760 --> 0:14:55.880 in April, but I knew that here's may check check check. 0:14:56.080 --> 0:14:58.040 Continue to double down on them as far as depth 0:14:58.080 --> 0:15:00.680 and things like that, they'll find a way. They're the 0:15:00.680 --> 0:15:03.520 The Blue Jays are the team I had so many 0:15:03.720 --> 0:15:06.880 x's next to them. I was disheartened. Here come those 0:15:07.000 --> 0:15:09.520 check marks. Nate Pearson did not have a good start. 0:15:09.800 --> 0:15:12.400 That troubles and worries me. But on the other side, 0:15:12.520 --> 0:15:14.040 a lot of these guys are stead Look at Marcus 0:15:14.040 --> 0:15:16.240 Simi and he has an amazing on base streak that 0:15:16.320 --> 0:15:19.080 no one is talking about. La Guerrero is coming alive, 0:15:19.120 --> 0:15:21.280 Boba Sheet's doing what he should do, and Kevin Bigio's 0:15:21.320 --> 0:15:22.400 bad hasn't even woken up. 0:15:22.480 --> 0:15:24.480 Yet I'm sure it will. 0:15:24.800 --> 0:15:28.000 So I'm looking at these odds and seeing there's ways 0:15:28.040 --> 0:15:30.280 I can make some money here. The cream will always 0:15:30.360 --> 0:15:31.800 rise to the top show you know that. 0:15:32.080 --> 0:15:32.920 Yeah, And you know what. 0:15:32.960 --> 0:15:36.000 I like what you're saying too, of making small incremental 0:15:36.040 --> 0:15:39.200 investments over time, because that does kind of allow you 0:15:39.240 --> 0:15:41.880 to have exposure. But at the same time, like you're saying, 0:15:41.920 --> 0:15:44.120 if you really like one thing it's going well, you 0:15:44.200 --> 0:15:45.920 continue to double up on it. And I think that 0:15:46.000 --> 0:15:48.200 is a great way over the long period of time. 0:15:48.280 --> 0:15:50.480 Let's see how that affects the central and how you 0:15:50.520 --> 0:15:54.440 want to do this one, because this one chuck me. 0:15:54.600 --> 0:15:56.080 I was White Sox from the beginning of the year 0:15:56.080 --> 0:15:57.600 and they were not the favorites, and I said, this 0:15:57.680 --> 0:16:00.000 is insane. The White Sox should be the favorites. They've 0:16:00.080 --> 0:16:04.280 lost Louise Robert, they have lost Elia Menez, yet they 0:16:04.360 --> 0:16:06.960 still continue to win games and they are still the 0:16:06.960 --> 0:16:10.720 consensus favorite minus two hundred. Cleveland's at plus three fifty, 0:16:10.720 --> 0:16:13.640 Cleveland has a hard time I feel like generating runs 0:16:13.680 --> 0:16:16.960 outside of home runs. Ramirez and Franmil are hitting outside 0:16:17.000 --> 0:16:18.560 of that, it's kind of tough for them. If they're 0:16:18.560 --> 0:16:20.560 not hitting Dingers and then the Twins who you know, 0:16:20.640 --> 0:16:21.680 Kent tamai Ada struggle. 0:16:21.800 --> 0:16:22.720 You know, kier Lof came. 0:16:22.720 --> 0:16:24.640 Up for a hot minute and got hot and then 0:16:24.680 --> 0:16:27.240 he went on the il. The Twins number has dropped 0:16:27.280 --> 0:16:29.360 all the way to plus eight hundred. Now that is 0:16:29.560 --> 0:16:33.080 very tempting because the Twins historically are always around. But 0:16:33.560 --> 0:16:36.200 I'm still kind of just sticking with the White Sox. 0:16:36.240 --> 0:16:39.320 I think the time to bet the White Sox has passed. Personally, 0:16:39.360 --> 0:16:40.960 I think it was before the season. What do you 0:16:41.000 --> 0:16:42.880 think right now? Is there some case you want to 0:16:42.880 --> 0:16:45.680 make for Cleveland or Minnesota or is it just already 0:16:46.160 --> 0:16:47.520 a White Sox division to lose? 0:16:48.400 --> 0:16:50.440 How do you know? I'm not all in on the Tigers? 0:16:51.120 --> 0:16:51.680 How do you know? 0:16:51.760 --> 0:16:54.440 I don't think I've been hitting ahead with a lot 0:16:54.440 --> 0:16:57.520 of chairs. That's the only thing I know that is 0:16:57.320 --> 0:16:58.000 that is that is what. 0:16:58.160 --> 0:16:59.800 I got, because I'm gonna lose my thought because of that, 0:17:00.840 --> 0:17:03.600