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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros.

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Speaker 2: It's time to place your bets. Is me Joey P

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Speaker 2: joe P Zapia and this is BP NFL. It's time

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Speaker 2: to look at to Thursday Night football this week, and

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Speaker 2: we got a good one too. The Lions taking a

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Speaker 2: couple losses lately, not looking so great, possibly without their

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Speaker 2: big star. I'm on Ross Saint Brown as a recording this,

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Speaker 2: and of course the Dallas Cowboys on a bit of

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Speaker 2: a roll, starting to feel pretty good about themselves rather

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Speaker 2: than off some w's and Scott Bogman and I are

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Speaker 2: going to pick apart the bets for this game.

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Speaker 1: We had a pretty.

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Speaker 2: Good Thanksgiving special. I got a say, Bogs pretty damn

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Speaker 2: good there. We also had a very entertaining Black Friday

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Speaker 2: where we made some money too. We were on the

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Speaker 2: Bears and that was a good place to be. So

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Speaker 2: I want to keep that train rolling. And I apologize

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Speaker 2: in advance to the listeners, especially in the watchers, because

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Speaker 2: we've got some roofwork done. So if you hear intermittent hammering,

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Speaker 2: it's not some sort of weird art project I've got

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Speaker 2: going on in the background or something like that.

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Speaker 1: It's just it's the necessary work in there. It is

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Speaker 1: just on cue.

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Speaker 2: I feel like Bill Murray and Scrooge when he's just

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Speaker 2: asking everyone to please stop the damn hammering box.

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Speaker 1: But I guess that's that's the season we're in. It

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Speaker 1: is Christmas time, right.

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Speaker 3: Look, everybody needs to have their roof replaced at some point,

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Speaker 3: so that's what's happening right now.

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Speaker 4: So you know, get it fixed. We'll be okay.

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Speaker 3: We can hear a couple of hammers, no big deal,

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Speaker 3: everybody's done that before.

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Speaker 2: That's right, a little hammering, a little knocking around, but

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Speaker 2: you know, eventually keep the snow out, and that's that's

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Speaker 2: a good ding.

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Speaker 1: No snow, no rain inside the house.

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Speaker 4: That I don't know anything about snow, Joe, I'm.

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Speaker 1: Fine, I know, yeah, seriously and the whatever, all right.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if you know about free stuff or

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Speaker 2: we're gett away assigned AJ Brown helmet for free from

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Speaker 2: Pristine Auction dot Com.

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Speaker 1: All you need to.

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Speaker 2: Do is head over to Betting Pros dot com slash contest,

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Speaker 2: complete the form and either download the Betting Pros app,

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Speaker 2: leave a review of the Betting Pros podcast, or subscribe

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Speaker 2: to our social media channels at Betting Pros on X

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Speaker 2: on TikTok and Betting Pros NFL on the IG. The

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Speaker 2: more actions you complete, the more entries you'll receive, and

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Speaker 2: we'll be announcing the winner right here on the channel.

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Speaker 1: So make sure you flip those on.

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Speaker 2: Ring that belt it goes ding, so you can claim

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Speaker 2: your prize and never miss an episode of Betting Pros.

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Speaker 2: All right, bogs, let's say good, look at the tail

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Speaker 2: of the tape here, and we've got the Dallas Cowboys

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Speaker 2: six five and one stupid ties.

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Speaker 1: They're the worst gets.

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Speaker 2: The Detroit Lions seven and five the Cowboys or plus

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Speaker 2: three and a half right now, that's at minus one nineteen.

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Speaker 2: Detroit minus three right now is the best line you can.

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Speaker 1: Find on VP.

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Speaker 2: Over fifty three and a half, under fifty four and

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Speaker 2: a half, those are the best numbers you're gonna find.

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Speaker 2: And plus one fifty two on the Dallas money line.

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Speaker 2: I'm keeping this simple box. I like the way the

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Speaker 2: Dallas offense is played. It's in a controlled environment, indoors.

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Speaker 2: I'm still you know, Dan Campbell continues to find ways

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Speaker 2: to mismanage games when they matter most.

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Speaker 1: He just does like I mean, I've had it You're.

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Speaker 3: Right, that was your big that was your big talking

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Speaker 3: points away this week.

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Speaker 1: Almost over it. It's been a week.

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Speaker 2: This is my last time that I'm gonna talk about it.

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Speaker 2: But it leads me to Dallas at plus three and

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Speaker 2: a half. I jumped on this line right away. Erics

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Speaker 2: and I talked about on the Early look Ahead show, Bogs.

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Speaker 2: What are your thoughts on this one? How do you

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Speaker 2: approach it?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm all over Dallas here with you as well.

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Speaker 3: And look, these two teams have been playing in opposite

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Speaker 3: directions recently, right, Detroit has been on their downturn and

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Speaker 3: the Cowboys have been peaking here. So I'm big on

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Speaker 3: the Cowboys this week, and I like the over here

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Speaker 3: as well. Plus something that you were probably not thinking

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Speaker 3: about too much, because it's a Thursday night game. Both

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Speaker 3: these teams have full rest. They both played on Thanksgiving Day.

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Speaker 3: This is the one Thursday game in the season where

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Speaker 3: you get fully rested teams coming in here. Now it's

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Speaker 3: late in the season. They're both banged up. They got

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Speaker 3: injuries to deal with, of course, but Detroit is the

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Speaker 3: worst side on that, Like I see, the only advantage

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Speaker 3: that Detroit really has right now is that they're at

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Speaker 3: home in this game. That is their one advantage here,

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Speaker 3: and that's not enough for me to get behind them

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Speaker 3: specifically with this hook. Three and a half is what

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Speaker 3: I want to get this game out if you still can.

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Speaker 4: If the falls below that, I don't know.

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Speaker 3: Home cooking can be weird sometime specifically in this game,

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Speaker 3: so I'll probably pass on it on it if it's

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Speaker 3: less than three and a half. But with that hook,

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Speaker 3: I think you got to be on the Cowboys here,

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Speaker 3: and I think money line is not a bad play either.

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Speaker 3: But if I'm betting like I like getting that hook,

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Speaker 3: so the over as well. Like the Cowboys are eight

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Speaker 3: and four to the over, the Lions are seven and five,

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Speaker 3: So yes, I'm missing a big star, but I still

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Speaker 3: think they have a lot of firepower with Jamison and

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Speaker 3: Jamirik Gibbs as well, so I think they'll be able

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Speaker 3: to put up the points. But this Cowboys offense is

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Speaker 3: peaking right now. It is the best offense in the league.

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Speaker 3: It has been putting points on everybody, and you know

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Speaker 3: now that they figured out pickings can really be a

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Speaker 3: true number one, this offense looks amazing right now. It's

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Speaker 3: tough to stop and they made improvements on the defense

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Speaker 3: as well, and they're working right now.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, they are.

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Speaker 2: Look, I think Dallas feels a little bit maybe, you know,

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Speaker 2: sometimes the tragedy brings the team together.

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Speaker 1: I think you're getting a little bit of that too,

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Speaker 1: you know. Yea, the guys are starting to come together

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Speaker 1: a little bit.

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Speaker 2: And I think seeing the Eagles continue, you know, lose

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Speaker 2: recently is encouraged.

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Speaker 4: Inspiring.

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Speaker 2: Yea, it is inspiring as well, you know, where you

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Speaker 2: feel like maybe we are kind of in this thing

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Speaker 2: at the end of the day, like maybe this division

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Speaker 2: isn't gone and we have a shot at it after all.

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Speaker 2: All right, we're gonna break down the props in just

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Speaker 2: All right, bogs, Let's take a look here at Dak

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Speaker 2: Prescott two sixty nine and a half passing yards. I'm

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Speaker 2: on the over and so are you?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, the dude is on fire. Right.

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Speaker 3: Detroit Secondary has been getting torchs recently as well. Dak's

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Speaker 3: been over three hundred two games in a row. Pickens

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Speaker 3: and Lamb are peaking the last three weeks. Detroit has

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Speaker 3: specifically been bad against the past twenty eighth in passing

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Speaker 3: yards allowed. Terry and Arnold is a big question Mark

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Speaker 3: in this game as well. So I mean projections for

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Speaker 3: everything I've seen have dak over this as well. This

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Speaker 3: one just seems pretty simple. I think the Dallas offense

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Speaker 3: moves through the past with Lamb and Pickens. I think

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Speaker 3: they're going to continue to do that against Detroit on

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Speaker 3: the road.

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Speaker 2: Here, all right, Next up here we have George Pickens,

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Speaker 2: who we were just talking about over five and a

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Speaker 2: half receptions there, so we're going over on that one

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Speaker 2: as well. Let's talk about why, because if we're talking

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Speaker 2: about streak wise, he's certainly on that path.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I mean, look, this dude has been on fire and

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Speaker 3: the juice is bad on this because of it. It is

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Speaker 3: minus one twenty five, but I try to stay below

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Speaker 3: minus like one thirty on these picks here. But he's

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Speaker 3: at this in five straight with the minimum of nine

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Speaker 3: targets in those games. Arnold is questionable, and even if

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Speaker 3: he plays, he should be on Lamb anyway, he's by

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Speaker 3: far their best corner right now. So I just think Pickens,

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Speaker 3: and again projected over on everything I've seen, I think

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Speaker 3: Pickens is peaking right now. I think he's playing better

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Speaker 3: than Ceedee Lamb, which is a hard thing. To do,

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Speaker 3: even though Ceedee Lamb is amazing. They're both very, very good.

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Speaker 3: They have two number ones on this team. So this

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Speaker 3: is just the way the offense should move because it's working.

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Speaker 3: So over five and a half, I think should be

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Speaker 3: pretty easy for Pickens.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's get to David Montgomery. The number five

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Speaker 2: is fifty and a half rushing and receiving yards combined.

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Speaker 2: So we know Jamier Gibs that some monstrous games here

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Speaker 2: in the month of November going into December. Now, so

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Speaker 2: what does that mean for Montgomery's combined total?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so I wanted to do rushing total, just a

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Speaker 3: full transparency here because yesterday was thirty eight and a half.

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Speaker 3: It dropped five yards to thirty three and a half overnight, Joe,

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Speaker 3: So obviously a lot of people on that one. But

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Speaker 3: Dallas is second in the NFL the last three weeks

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Speaker 3: in rushing yards allowed under ten rushing attempts for David

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Speaker 3: Montgomery three straight weeks, under twenty five snaps in those

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Speaker 3: weeks as well, and he's only had more than two

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Speaker 3: catches twice this season. Dallas scores points, which should lead

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Speaker 3: to more passing from Detroit, which probably leaves David Montgomery

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Speaker 3: out of this game a little bit more. Also, so

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Speaker 3: second rushing attempts against the past two weeks because they

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Speaker 3: put points up, and last three weeks Detroit is twenty

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Speaker 3: six in rush attempts per game. So I just think

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Speaker 3: that Montgomery's pack to this is very narrow. He's getting

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Speaker 3: fewer touches and he's not like a big a guy

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Speaker 3: that's going to break off a big play. He will

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Speaker 3: every once in a while, but that is more what

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Speaker 3: Gibbs does for Detroit. So I just think under fifty

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Speaker 3: and a half total with him losing snaps and then

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Speaker 3: potentially having to play from behind and probably having Gibbs

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Speaker 3: in more leads me to think that he will be

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Speaker 3: under fifteen and a half. I wanted to get below

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Speaker 3: thirty eight and a half, but below thirty three and

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Speaker 3: a half it's not quite as appealing.

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Speaker 4: That's all, all right.

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Speaker 2: Let's switch backfields here to the Dallas Cowboys and Javonte

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Speaker 2: Williams his number seventy nine and a half. When you

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Speaker 2: combine the rush and the receiving yards, do you like?

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Speaker 4: That is the over I do? And that's this one.

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Speaker 3: Look, he's hit this total between rushing and receiving in

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Speaker 3: nine of twelve games so far this season, and he's

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Speaker 3: done it seven times with just rushing yards. Detroit is

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Speaker 3: twenty fourth the past three weeks in rushing yards allowed

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Speaker 3: one hundred and thirty one points seven and Javante is

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Speaker 3: ninth in the league in touches per game, averaging twenty

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Speaker 3: touches per game. So I think this total is somewhat

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Speaker 3: low for Javonte Williams. And look, if you protect the

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Speaker 3: pass against Dallas, which is what you should do, you're

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Speaker 3: gonna give up chunk plays to Javonte. This offense is

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Speaker 3: humming right now, so I think we're just gonna see

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Speaker 3: a lot of yards from the Cowboys in this game.

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Speaker 2: All right, Let's talk about Jameson Williams too, because obviously

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Speaker 2: he stepped up in a big way last week on

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Speaker 2: Thanksgiving when.

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Speaker 1: Al Monroe was out. I would think a lot of.

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Speaker 2: People would be going for some of his yardage totals

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Speaker 2: or even receptions. But you're looking specifically for that longest

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Speaker 2: reception again, why that one at twenty eight and a

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Speaker 2: half and that over and supposed to maybe the over

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Speaker 2: on the total reception yards.

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Speaker 3: I just think this one is safer honestly, with the

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Speaker 3: way Jamison Williams plays, right, He's hit this in four

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Speaker 3: the past five weeks. He had ten targets last week

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Speaker 3: with a Monra down, and he is very iffy for

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Speaker 3: Thursday Night Football tomorrow. And Dallas has allowed thirty nine

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Speaker 3: twenty plus yard pass plays. That's twenty six in the

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Speaker 3: NFL and eleven over forty. That's almost won a game,

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Speaker 3: and they are dead last in the NFL and allowing

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Speaker 3: big explosive plays. So the improvements that the Cowboys made

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Speaker 3: were along the front, Right, we got Quinnin Williams in there,

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Speaker 3: they traded for Kenny Clark, right, those are the improvements

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Speaker 3: that they made to stop the run, not to stop

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Speaker 3: the pass. The back end is still leaky. So I

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Speaker 3: think that specifically with Dallas putting up these points, Jamison

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Speaker 3: being a big explosive playmaker and this being at twenty

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Speaker 3: eight and a half, which, like I said, he's hit

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Speaker 3: this in four or five. The only game he didn't

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Speaker 3: hit was a game where he caught no balls, right,

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Speaker 3: and everybody was so mad, Can I drop Jamis? Can

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Speaker 3: I get rid of Jamis? Blah blah blah, and we're all, no,

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Speaker 3: you can't do that, He's still you want one of

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Speaker 3: the better scores in the league at wide receivers. So

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Speaker 3: I just think a big play is probably going to happen,

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Speaker 3: and I think Detroit's gonna have to take shots late.

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Speaker 3: So I think you add those two things up and

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Speaker 3: it should give us a big play from him. And

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Speaker 3: I got my longest reception on Watson on Thanksgiving, so

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Speaker 3: feel pretty good about these recently.

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Speaker 1: There you go, let's roll that over and again.

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Speaker 2: If you want more help with the props, go to

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Speaker 2: the prop bet cheat sheet, download the Banging Pros app

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Speaker 2: and you're gonna find it, or just go to bettingpros

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Speaker 2: dot com Size props and you'll find the prop bet

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Speaker 2: cheat sheet right there. For the best value, Let's rank

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Speaker 2: all of the props there in every game, the difference

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Speaker 2: between the fantasy projections and the prop lines, and that's

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Speaker 2: going to find you the best place to make those bets.

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Speaker 2: So that's what's all about your sportsbooks for free. Get

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Speaker 2: all the value you possibly can by using the Betting

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Speaker 2: Pros app and all the tools like the prop bet

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Speaker 2: cheat sheet, and you can also use the same game

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Speaker 2: parlay builder as well. And that's what we're gonna do

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Speaker 2: right now, use the SGP tool. We're gonna make a

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Speaker 2: little prop here. We're gonna go Dallas Cowboys with that

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Speaker 2: plus three. So I'm gonna tempt fade a little bit.

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Speaker 2: I mean, honestly, I kind of like just Dallas to

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Speaker 2: win out right. So if you really feeling.

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Speaker 3: Money line is bad either, yeah, I just think in betting,

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Speaker 3: if you're gonna give me that hook, I'm looking for it.

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Speaker 1: That's all I'm all about it.

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Speaker 2: If you can get the hook still too great, you

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Speaker 2: take the three, take the three and a half, whatever

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Speaker 2: you can find there. If you can take the plus

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Speaker 2: one fifty two on the money line, if you want

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Speaker 2: to go that, go for it. And I'm also taking

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Speaker 2: the over on the Dak Prescott Yards two sixty eight

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Speaker 2: and a half is what I found it out there.

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Speaker 2: So put those two things together, you get plus one

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Speaker 2: eighty five. Is it a huge number, nozer. But if

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Speaker 2: you switch it over to the money line, it goes

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Speaker 2: up significantly. So that's just something to keep in mind

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Speaker 2: here as you're looking to make your parlays for the night,

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Speaker 2: and in terms of touchdowns finding the end zone, I'm

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Speaker 2: going with George Pickens plus one twenty.

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Speaker 1: I can't believe I'm getting plus one twenty on Pickings.

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Speaker 1: I thought that was kind of crazy.

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Speaker 2: I thought it would be closer to even, if not

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Speaker 2: minus money with the way he's been playing lately.

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Speaker 1: So I'll go ahead.

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Speaker 4: We switched our names.

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Speaker 3: Actually, actually I'm taking George Pickens because our names are flipped.

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Speaker 6: Here.

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Speaker 3: You row yours in mine. I didn't even realize it

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Speaker 3: until you said it. But I love your pick because

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Speaker 3: I almost love your pick.

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Speaker 1: I was gonna say, but I really like your pick better.

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Speaker 2: I did this like yesterday, and then the roof came

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Speaker 2: off my house and it's been banging around, so I

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Speaker 2: kind of but no, it's true because it's so let's

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Speaker 2: switch around. So you know what, Yeah, we both like

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Speaker 2: both of these. Because I was literally gonna say the same,

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Speaker 2: But you know what, I kind of like yours better.

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Speaker 1: Bods, I'll be honest with you.

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Speaker 4: I like my I like mine too. It's plus one

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Speaker 4: twenty five for Pickens.

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Speaker 1: But let's take your plus one forty five for Pickets here.

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Speaker 3: I like your number two. It's plus one fifty five

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Speaker 3: for Tesla. And and this is what Tesla does right

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Speaker 3: when he's in there, He scores were projected to a J.

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Speaker 3: Brown to be down. Do you did you see.

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Speaker 1: This percentage he gets? He gives a J.

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Speaker 3: Brown Brown, Yeah, one, they've all they're also working on

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Speaker 3: my roof.

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Speaker 4: Uh so, but.

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Speaker 3: Look, did you see the snap percentage for Tesla after

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Speaker 3: all went down ninety two percent last week? So he's

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Speaker 3: he's got a lot of telling if they're going to

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Speaker 3: be playing from behind as well, like we think, I

361
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Speaker 3: think Tesla is with no sun God. I think what

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Speaker 3: we have here is we have him good for yardage,

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Speaker 3: for his longest reception, and for a touchdown. I think

364
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Speaker 3: all of those are in play for Tesla. We just

365
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Speaker 3: didn't have numbers yesterday. I think the numbers that I

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Speaker 3: just saw on Tesla's thirty five and a half receiving

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Speaker 3: yards now he's projected under right now because those projections

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Speaker 3: are with a manra playing. But I think with a

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Speaker 3: man rest sitting projections are going to raise him a lot.

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Speaker 3: Remember no Sam Laporta as well.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but you also got like that Kennedy kid they

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Speaker 2: brought up for the practice squad is gonna work.

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Speaker 1: Kennedy's good and he's all right.

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Speaker 2: I feel if I'm betting Tesla it's the touchdown because

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Speaker 2: he's been that guy even the red zone. I think

376
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Speaker 2: he's that playmaker guy. He's the guy that gets lose,

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Speaker 2: has a little separated.

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Speaker 3: I think all the numbers are going to be too

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Speaker 3: low if he plays again, and I think he goes

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Speaker 3: over most of them.

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Speaker 2: That was funny though, because I mean I I did

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Speaker 2: put my pick in your name, and I.

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Speaker 1: Was like, you know what, I didn't even realize like that,

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Speaker 1: I just slaw one.

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Speaker 3: I just I just put mine in. I didn't really really,

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Speaker 3: I just filled in the blank spy pick.

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Speaker 1: Look, they're all good, so bet them all.

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Speaker 2: Bet them all, have some fun and subscribe to the

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Speaker 2: channel as well. We made it through with limited hammering

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Speaker 2: h and I'm grateful because my head is pounding and

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Speaker 2: I need to go lay down, take it.

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Speaker 4: Out of limited advil at this point.

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Speaker 2: But again, good luck everybody, have fun Thursday night football.

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Speaker 2: That'll do it for us. But the story of the

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Speaker 2: game goes on for Scott Bog and I'm Joey p.

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Speaker 2: We'll see you next time.

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Speaker 1: Kids. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.

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Speaker 6: If you love the show, the best freeway to support

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00:16:51,720 --> 00:16:54,640
Speaker 6: us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts

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00:16:54,680 --> 00:16:57,720
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00:16:57,720 --> 00:17:00,240
Speaker 6: Pros and Instagram at betting Pros and f hel.

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Speaker 4: Also subscribe to our

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Speaker 6: YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros