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Speaker 1: What's up, friends, and welcome into Fantasy pros. This is

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Speaker 1: the Fantasy Baseball Podcast. I'm Chris Welsh, and we are

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Speaker 1: talking rookies. You know, I love prospects, Love me some rookies.

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Speaker 1: The designation difference would be rookies have actually had some

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Speaker 1: playing time. Obviously prospects can turn into it, but these

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Speaker 1: are some players that had got some playing time last year.

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Speaker 1: With one little sneaky caveat and rookies of guys that

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Speaker 1: you know have relative playing time this year that you

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Speaker 1: were gonna want to own for to own for draft day,

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Speaker 1: And who did I bring along to join me? It

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Speaker 1: is the one they only Joe Alrico, the master of

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Speaker 1: the NFBC, the big playoff champion, And this is a

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Speaker 1: great time to bring you in because Joe, I think

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Speaker 1: there's always kind of a weirdness that goes on with rookies.

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Speaker 1: This isn't necessarily prospects in here, but like the rookie

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Speaker 1: conversation in Fantasy baseball, because A, projections tend to not

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Speaker 1: like most rookies because there isn't enough of a sample size,

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Speaker 1: and B there's always this do they get overdrafted or

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Speaker 1: in some cases, as you as an experience like NFBC

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Speaker 1: high stakes player, rookies tend to be players that are

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Speaker 1: far and far beyond fast avoids unless there is immense upside.

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Speaker 1: So it's going to be a interesting discussion today. Where

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Speaker 1: do you stand on the rookie front. Do you blanket

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Speaker 1: rookies kind of in general, especially when you see overpriced

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Speaker 1: stuff without major production, or do you want to play

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Speaker 1: on the upside, especially in cases where it's like high

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Speaker 1: stakes leagues.

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Speaker 2: I want to take my chances where it makes sense

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Speaker 2: based on the cost. When guys go up one hundred

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Speaker 2: plus picks because there's hype around them making camp, or

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Speaker 2: they hit a big home run in spring training so

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Speaker 2: we got to jump up three rounds. I tend to

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Speaker 2: stay away by and large when I'm drafting my teams.

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Speaker 2: I like to be a little more cautious, a little

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Speaker 2: bit safer. You know, if Connor Griffin makes opening day

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Speaker 2: roster and he's a fourth round pick, he will not

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Speaker 2: be on any of my teams. But while he's going

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Speaker 2: around pick two hundred, you take your chances where it

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Speaker 2: makes sense. So I like rookies in general. You know,

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Speaker 2: you got to hit on a couple of big ones

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Speaker 2: I won a league last year, specifically because I've bit

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Speaker 2: enough on Nick Kurtz and he carried me to the championship.

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Speaker 2: But it's not one hundred percent hit rate. It's far

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Speaker 2: from it. So taking your chances where it makes sense

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Speaker 2: before the cost rises, which is why I love the

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Speaker 2: early drafts. These guys are in the twos and three

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Speaker 2: hundreds right now. This is when you take your chances.

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Speaker 2: Once they're third, fourth round picks, that's when I get

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Speaker 2: a little bit nervous.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think that it's an interesting point too,

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Speaker 1: because like sometimes the best rookies and prospects turn into

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Speaker 1: the rookies. Obviously, I think you guys understand the designation difference,

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Speaker 1: but sometimes the best rookies to get are the ones

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Speaker 1: that you don't draft. They're the ones that you know

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Speaker 1: someone else put a high equity costs in and then

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Speaker 1: missed on. But sometimes there are players you need to

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Speaker 1: just put a stamp on. I've picked four I think

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Speaker 1: very interesting players that I think need your attention are

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Speaker 1: players that are, you know, at least from an ADP standpoint,

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Speaker 1: being drafted. And we're gonna get Joe's take on if

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Speaker 1: he's a buy or sell on them. If you guys

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Speaker 1: want to check out rankings in general, make sure you're

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Speaker 1: going to Fantasy Pros. You can check out Finishypros dot

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Speaker 1: com slash mlbrankings. You can see we've got redraft rankings.

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Speaker 1: I've got prospect rankings available, I've got dynasty rankings. Check

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Speaker 1: out and start all of the draft process with Fantasy

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Speaker 1: Pros and next thing you know it, draft kits going

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Speaker 1: to be out there. We've got mock drafts going on.

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Speaker 1: We got all the prep that's happening, whether it's me, Soa, Rico,

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Speaker 1: Joe Pizapia and all the rest of the bunch. Make

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Speaker 1: sure you guys are locked in and locked in right

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Speaker 1: here on the YouTube channel because I want to hear

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Speaker 1: about your favorite rookies as well with the YouTube dot

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Speaker 1: com slash Fantasy Pros MLB. All right, first, rookie up,

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Speaker 1: not so rookie ish, but he does still have that

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Speaker 1: qualification just barely. One of my favorite players going into

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Speaker 1: this season, but the cost is rising. Nolan McClain. You

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Speaker 1: want to own Nolan McClain, that is first and foremost.

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Speaker 1: He had a two point zero six ERA this past season,

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Speaker 1: fifty seven strikeouts in those forty eight innings, barely over

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Speaker 1: a one whip thirty percent k percentage. His expected ERA

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Speaker 1: was still around three and a half, which was respectable.

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Speaker 1: He was one of the only rookies that never had

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Speaker 1: that like blip, you know, in that moment where he

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Speaker 1: got beat up. His stuff was off the charts. He

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Speaker 1: was throwing a sinker and a four scene both into

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Speaker 1: the mid nineties. He had a fifty percent whiff rate

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Speaker 1: on his curveball, which by the way, registered thirty two

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Speaker 1: hundred spin on it RPM ridiculous spin numbers, and stuff

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Speaker 1: Plus loves him. He's a darling. One of the best

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Speaker 1: is stuff. I think his curveball actually ranked if it

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Speaker 1: had qualified as the number one curveball as far as

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Speaker 1: stuff plus and six pitches he throws qualify at one

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Speaker 1: hundred or higher stuff plus, so it's advanced stuff. But

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Speaker 1: his ADP is the highest riser out there. I talked

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Speaker 1: about him on a live show that people could have

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Speaker 1: watched on this channel. But now after I think the

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Speaker 1: last like twenty days or so on looking at Draft

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Speaker 1: Champions on NBC, he's well inside the top one hundred.

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Speaker 1: So I want to own Nolan McClain. But Joe can

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Speaker 1: you own Nolan McClain.

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Speaker 2: It's getting a little bit tricky to justify with the

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Speaker 2: rise and cost and not to beat the dead horse.

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Speaker 2: But this is why you draft early, because people got

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Speaker 2: him in the one forties, one fifties. I think when

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Speaker 2: we did our show together, which was the first week

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Speaker 2: of November, we were talking about Nolan McLain one thirty

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Speaker 2: one forty and now his ADP is inside the top

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Speaker 2: one hundred picks over the last twenty drafts ninety three.

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Speaker 2: This is where I have to kind of tap out

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Speaker 2: a little bit. As much as I really like the talent,

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Speaker 2: there's a lot of things working in his favor. You

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Speaker 2: mentioned all the stuff, which you know, usually pitchers have

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Speaker 2: one or two plus pitches. Everything is a plus pitch

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Speaker 2: for him. At six pitches that all great out at

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Speaker 2: least average is ridiculous. The pitching plus is really important too,

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Speaker 2: is not just crazy stuff that does not locate. The

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Speaker 2: location could use a little bit of work, but a

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Speaker 2: one thirteen pitching plus is a phenomenal number, especially when

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Speaker 2: you consider this guy's only been a full time pitcher

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Speaker 2: for about a year. You can go on fangrabs and

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Speaker 2: look at batting stats from him in twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 2: They're not too great, but that's why he became a

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Speaker 2: full time pitcher. And now you can make the argument

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Speaker 2: that he has more time to focus just on the pitching.

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Speaker 2: He has another year of development in one of the

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Speaker 2: better pitching development places in the Biggs right now in

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Speaker 2: New York. But that cost is just becoming prohibitive at

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Speaker 2: this point when you're drafting on Yahoo and ESPN and

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Speaker 2: those leagues open up, I don't imagine he'll start as

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Speaker 2: a top one hundred pick, and there you might have

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Speaker 2: another little buying opportunity. But right now on the NFBC,

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Speaker 2: he's going right in the same range as Nick Pavetta,

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Speaker 2: as Yuri Perez, as Franbervaldez, Spencer Strider, Tyler Glass. Now

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Speaker 2: there are question marks with essentially every name I said there,

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Speaker 2: but with McLain with forty eight innings to buy in

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Speaker 2: off of forty eight innings at a price where he

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Speaker 2: is your SP two, maybe even your SP one. A

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Speaker 2: lot of people don't like early pitching. You take three

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Speaker 2: or four hitters early on and then you go, McClain,

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Speaker 2: he's your SP one. I just can't really get behind it.

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Speaker 2: I'm going to get some shares once I start. You know,

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Speaker 2: my home league is on Yahoo. I can almost guarantee

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Speaker 2: all draft Noel McLain. But in the high stakes leagues

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Speaker 2: right now, his cost is rising. It feels like on

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Speaker 2: a daily basis, and it's gotten to a point where

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Speaker 2: I don't think I can do it anymore.

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Speaker 1: High stakes might be giving us a little bit of

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Speaker 1: a pause. I still think the production is there regardless.

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Speaker 1: But as you guys get to play and focus on

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Speaker 1: a bunch of your other leagues, pay attention to the cost,

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Speaker 1: because I am kind of telling you, regardless of the point,

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Speaker 1: Nolan McClain is a guy costs be damned. Is a

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Speaker 1: player that we're gonna want to own. They might look

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Speaker 1: a lot better, but trust me, he's a rookie that

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Speaker 1: you're gonna want to own for sure this season and

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Speaker 1: is going to be up for Rookie of the Year.

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Speaker 1: How about another pitcher. How about the guy that we

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Speaker 1: spent the whole year talking about last year in disappointment.

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Speaker 1: He then comes up that was pretty damn good, Bubba Chandler.

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Speaker 1: Bubba Chandler ended up around thirty innings in the major

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Speaker 1: leagues after a very Dicey Minor league season, thirty one

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Speaker 1: strikeouts and thirty one innings sub one whip a for era.

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Speaker 1: But that four era is interesting because it was off

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Speaker 1: of one blow up. As a matter of fact, of

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Speaker 1: the fourteen earned runs he gave up, nine came in

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Speaker 1: one game. That puts together quite a few very interesting starts.

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Speaker 1: His last three starts of the season, he gave up

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Speaker 1: only two earned runs. He went six five, five and

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Speaker 1: two thirds and struck out at least six in all

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Speaker 1: three of those starts. Bubba Chandler has got some big stuff,

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Speaker 1: huge big fastball. He had a forty percent k percentage

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Speaker 1: with only a three percent walk rate, which shocked people

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Speaker 1: between a little bit of the relief and starters. And

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Speaker 1: now it looks like he would be in the rotation

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Speaker 1: for the year. So the prince that was promised gets

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Speaker 1: a full season. I think you need to own him.

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Speaker 1: I think there's huge upside in the sp market, and

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Speaker 1: his ADP is a lot easier to stomach. Around one

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Speaker 1: fifty one in draft champions leagues you're looking at so

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Speaker 1: consumer leagues is probably gonna be anywhere between like one

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Speaker 1: forty one eighty. I think there's so much strikeout upside.

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Speaker 1: But the question is, Joe Rico, must you own some

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Speaker 1: Bubba Chandler this year?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I've already died. I'm on my fourth draft of

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Speaker 2: the year already I have him on two teams, and

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Speaker 2: I'm just looking at my starting pitcher rankings where I

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Speaker 2: have him as the fortieth sp It feels like I'm

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Speaker 2: sure short changing him a little bit there. I'm going

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Speaker 2: to bump him up once we're done recording here. I

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Speaker 2: love Bubba Chandler. The struggles he had in the minors

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Speaker 2: last year, I think we're out of boredom. Essentially. There

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Speaker 2: was no need for him to be in Triple A.

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Speaker 2: He started walking guys, but that's not a part of

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Speaker 2: who he is, or I don't think that'll be a

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Speaker 2: part of who he is. He might walk maybe, you know,

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Speaker 2: eight nine percent of batters, but that twelve plus percent number,

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Speaker 2: I think it just came out of there's no need

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Speaker 2: for me to be in Triple A. I'm pissed that

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Speaker 2: I'm still here and I'm not going to pitch my best.

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Speaker 2: As crappy as that does feel, I think that's what

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Speaker 2: happened in Triple A. Now, looking ahead to this season,

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Speaker 2: the Pirates have made some improvements. That pitching staff is

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Speaker 2: looking pretty good. The lineup has improved dramatically. Brandon Low.

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Speaker 2: We've talked about Connor Griffin coming in there. I think

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Speaker 2: that there are going to be more wins to go around.

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Speaker 2: I think the Bubba Chandler there's no reason for him

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Speaker 2: not to make thirty starts, and the price is really

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Speaker 2: really good, around one point fifty one forty depending on

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Speaker 2: your specific draft room. I love him, honestly. The guys

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Speaker 2: he's going around, Zach Wheeler, Robbie Ray, Gavin Williams, Sandy

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Speaker 2: L Contrach whatever, Rogers, I have more questions about every

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Speaker 2: single one of those names than I do bout Bubba Chandler.

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Speaker 2: So I've drafted him twice already. I'll probably draft them

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Speaker 2: several more times. I'm as high as I'm not as

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Speaker 2: high as I could be. I'm gonna bum up the rankings,

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Speaker 2: but I'm pretty high on Bubba Chandler.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and after all those other really exciting young pitchers,

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Speaker 1: it's Bubba Chandler after tree, Ya Savage, after Cam Schlitdler,

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Speaker 1: after Burns, after Miserowski, and there's a lot of upsides.

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Speaker 1: So I am in on Bubba Chandler. I think he's

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Speaker 1: a guy that is a kind of mustone, mustone, especially

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Speaker 1: if you're looking for upside. So he's a rookie that

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Speaker 1: you want to get. We've got two more and we're

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Speaker 1: going to be tackling some hitters. But let's still first

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Speaker 1: talk about a little bit of draft simulator Fantasy Pros

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Speaker 1: not just all the great content, but all the great tools,

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Speaker 1: and the draft simulator is here to level up your

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Speaker 1: Fantasy baseball draft prep. It's a Fantasy Pros mock draft simulator.

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Speaker 1: Complete realistic mock drafts in minutes without waiting in between picks.

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Speaker 1: That's one of the best things you can end up doing.

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Speaker 1: Like you can do seven mocks probably in like thirty minutes.

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Speaker 1: Tailor your mock drafts to your league specific said including

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Speaker 1: roster configurations and scoring systems. Receive instant feedback in draft

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Speaker 1: grades to refine your strategy and gain a competitive edge.

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Speaker 1: Prepare confidently and dominate your draft with the mock draft

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Speaker 1: simulator at Fantasypros dot com slash Draft Wizard. That's Fantasypros

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Speaker 1: dot com slash Draft Wizard. You can also get piece

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Speaker 1: of PA or myself telling us how much we hate

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Speaker 1: your draft. We gotta get a Rico's rankings in there

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Speaker 1: as well, so he can say how much he loves her. Okay, perfect,

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Speaker 1: So then you know what I think. I think you

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Speaker 1: loved one of my drafts so perfect. I got some

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Speaker 1: positive reinforcement from Joe. You can do the same thing

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Speaker 1: by going to the draft simulator. All right, number three

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Speaker 1: on the list here, So I got some weird lighting

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Speaker 1: shadows going on, apologize and look like Rudolf the red

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Speaker 1: nose reindeer on the video with my nose shining here.

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Speaker 1: This is a very interesting rookie hitter. I actually wrote

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Speaker 1: him up in Joe Pisapas Fantasy Black Book with a

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Speaker 1: slight caveat, And it's all really just about the playing time.

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Speaker 1: That's my big question. Because there's so many players with

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Speaker 1: the Cincinnati Reds, you just can't guarantee that you've got

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Speaker 1: a full season out of Sal Stewart. But what you

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Speaker 1: do have is a ridiculous profile and a very short

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Speaker 1: sample size. We only saw around fifty five at bats

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Speaker 1: from salth Stewart this past year, but in those fifty

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Speaker 1: five he hit two fifty five with five homers, which

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Speaker 1: is very nice. More So if you go and look

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Speaker 1: at the profile, that short sample size put together a

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Speaker 1: ridiculous hitting profile of the likes of like Nick Kurtz,

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Speaker 1: Ben Rice like top ten percent out, top five percent

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Speaker 1: talent x woe, but expected batting average, expected slug average

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Speaker 1: xlosity was ninety five point four barrel percentage an elite

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Speaker 1: seventeen point five percent. This small sample size red off

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Speaker 1: just like Nick Kurtz, except without the bat speed. Now,

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Speaker 1: he did strike out a decent amount and playing timer questions.

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Speaker 1: But Sal Stewart is someone that you're going to have

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Speaker 1: to pay attention to because unlike you know, guys like

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Speaker 1: Matt McClain or Christian A. Karnacion where there were really

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Speaker 1: struggles in the hitting profile, Sal Stewart doesn't have that struggle.

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Speaker 1: It's just the playing time. Is Sal Stewart a rookie

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Speaker 1: that you've got to own this year?

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Speaker 2: I am interested in Sal Stewart, but I am also

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Speaker 2: a little bit worried about what you mentioned with the

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Speaker 2: playing time in Cincinnati. Is he going to be getting

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Speaker 2: every day reps? I don't know that that's a guarantee.

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Speaker 2: As skilled as he is, Cabrian Hayes is going to

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Speaker 2: be playing third. As awful as Cabrian Hayes is offensively,

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Speaker 2: he is the best defensive third baseman in the league.

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Speaker 2: They currently slotted in to Spencer Steer at first base,

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Speaker 2: and Spencer Steer is not a great player, but they

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Speaker 2: have shown a commitment to playing Spencer Steer over the

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Speaker 2: last three years one hundred and fifty six games, one

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Speaker 2: hundred and fifty eight, one hundred and forty six. He

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Speaker 2: can bounce around a little bit, but short of a

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Speaker 2: Spencer Steer trade or moving him to the outfield where

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Speaker 2: he can play. But again, it's crowded in the outfield,

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Speaker 2: so I don't know that there is a guarantee of

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Speaker 2: playing time for sal Stewart, even though there should be.

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Speaker 2: Everything you rhymed off was just phenomenal, and with the

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Speaker 2: power stats, he doesn't have a massive swing and miss problem.

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Speaker 2: He has eleven percent swinging strike rate, chases a little

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Speaker 2: bit too much thirty three percent. But I think he's

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Speaker 2: a great hitter already after only eighteen games in the BIGS.

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Speaker 2: I'm just a little bit concerned about spending a top

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Speaker 2: two hundred ish pick on a guy where I don't

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Speaker 2: know for sure if he is going to be playing

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Speaker 2: every single day. That's my only concern. But I think again,

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Speaker 2: NFBC players are going to push these guys up a

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Speaker 2: little bit more. I don't think in casual league salth

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Speaker 2: Stewart will even be drafted necessarily if he's a two

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Speaker 2: to ten on the NFBC. If you're playing a twelve

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Speaker 2: teamer on Yahoo, that's two hundred and thirty players get drafted.

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Speaker 2: Sal Stewart as the last pick in the draft, somebody

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Speaker 2: who's stash in free agency right after the draft, and

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Speaker 2: then there will be injuries, there could be trades. He

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Speaker 2: might just hit his way into the lineup regardless of

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Speaker 2: where they're putting him on the field. So I feel

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Speaker 2: like he's more of a target for you guys who

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Speaker 2: will be drafting in March on your one or two

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Speaker 2: teams on Yahoo or ESPN. He'll be a great bargain

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Speaker 2: there where he's not really at this point on the NFBC.

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Speaker 1: And I think that's an important differentiator right there, is that,

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Speaker 1: like you know, in any of our home leagues and

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Speaker 1: stuff like that, you want to play for upside on

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Speaker 1: your on your low end bench or players in the

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Speaker 1: last couple of picks, and Sal Stewart presents that his

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Speaker 1: hitting profile is absolutely ridiculous. So if he does crack

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Speaker 1: the roster with a full time gig, which by the way,

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Speaker 1: he could be the first baseman, Spencer Tier could plays

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Speaker 1: super Steer, could play super util You could also have

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Speaker 1: Sal Stewart as a DH his bat plays the profile

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Speaker 1: says it, and he's a good guy to take a

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Speaker 1: risk on. Now the final rookie, I'm cheating because this

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Speaker 1: guy did not play last year, but he will qualify

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Speaker 1: as a rookie even though he is older than all

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Speaker 1: the rookies. We got to sneak in one of the

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Speaker 1: international signings, but we're gonna do it with Kazuma Akamoto

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Speaker 1: who signed with your Toronto Blue Jays, because the projections

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Speaker 1: are ridiculous on this rookie, mister Joe Rico. His ADP

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Speaker 1: currently we actually did since he signed on NFBC is

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Speaker 1: two seventy six. All right, kind of end or maybe

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Speaker 1: not being drafted, but in the same token of like

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Speaker 1: Kxal Stewart, where you know he's probably not gonna be

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Speaker 1: drafted in a lot of spots. Look at the projections

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Speaker 1: two thirty six from the bat X with twenty seven homers,

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Speaker 1: seventy runs, seventy RBIs. This is after hitting three twenty

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Speaker 1: two in Japan this past year with fifteen homers in

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Speaker 1: seventy seven games. A Kamoto will be a rookie, He's

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Speaker 1: not kind of quite like a rookie, whether he's a

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Speaker 1: third basement or super util he has a much safer

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Speaker 1: profile than Murakami for a lot of people, without the

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Speaker 1: swing and miss issues, some good hard hit numbers. So

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Speaker 1: is this the rookie that you need to own, not

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Speaker 1: just because he's a bluejaant, And if.

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Speaker 2: I do say so myself, a much better lineup than

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Speaker 2: Murakami's going to be entering into as well in Toronto.

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Speaker 2: Who's still I mean, I don't know if it's going

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Speaker 2: to be Tuckerbashad Bragmant. I think they're gonna add one

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Speaker 2: more big piece, which would just make this lineup look

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Speaker 2: even more appealing. But Al Kamoto, I'll address the price first,

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Speaker 2: because I think the market's still kind of figuring itself

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Speaker 2: out with these guys. You never know one hundred percent

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Speaker 2: if they're going to sign or not, and you don't

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Speaker 2: want to draft a guy who's going to go back

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Speaker 2: to playing in Japan or Korea, but I mean the

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Speaker 2: minimum pick on him. The highest he's been drafted is

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Speaker 2: at pick seventy four. Since he's been signed, we're usually

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Speaker 2: seeing like one twenties, one thirties, but also some picks

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Speaker 2: in the mid two hundred, so the market's still figuring

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Speaker 2: itself out. I think it will probably end up around

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Speaker 2: the one fifty ish type of range. That's where I

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Speaker 2: see him landing, and I'm totally fine with it. Third

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Speaker 2: base is a horrible position this year, awful awful. I

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Speaker 2: almost like second base better. I don't, but it's close,

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Speaker 2: and you're getting a guy who is going to be

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Speaker 2: an everyday third base eligible player, who might even pick

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Speaker 2: up another position Toronto, they might put him at first

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Speaker 2: sometimes when Vladi's dhing, he could pick up first base.

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Speaker 2: Maybe he plays the corner outfield here and there. This

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Speaker 2: could be a guy with three or four positions at

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Speaker 2: the end of the season, who's giving you twenty five

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Speaker 2: home runs, who's not hurting your batting average, who's driving

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Speaker 2: in a lot of runs. In that lineup, I think

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Speaker 2: that he's a great pick, and before the market fully

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Speaker 2: settles in on he's a top one hundred and fifty pick.

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Speaker 2: He's a top two hundred pick. He's all over the

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Speaker 2: place right now. This is the time to draft him.

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Speaker 2: You can enter into a draft today. If you are

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Speaker 2: drafting in the next week or so, it's a great

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Speaker 2: time because nobody really knows where you should be going,

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Speaker 2: and you'll probably get him later than you will in

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Speaker 2: a couple of months.

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Speaker 1: Nolan McClain, Bubba Chandler, Sal Stewart, Kazuma Akamoto. Those are

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Speaker 1: four rookies that you guys are gonna want to own

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Speaker 1: on draft day, whether it's now or in a couple months.

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Speaker 1: We got to pay attention to the ADPs. These guys

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Speaker 1: are hot and they've got some big potential returns for

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Speaker 1: you for this season. And make sure you're doing it

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Speaker 1: all this season with us. You can do the draft simulator,

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Speaker 1: get practicing with your drafts. Be looking out for all

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Speaker 1: the episodes, be looking out for all the tools as

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Speaker 1: they unlock. As this baseball season is right around the corner,

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Speaker 1: and make sure you're joining us in season for leading

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Speaker 1: off Monday through Friday action talking baseball myself a Rico Piezapo.

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Speaker 1: We're all here for you. That is going to do it.

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Speaker 1: Thank you guys so much. For hanging out with us.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're subscribed on the YouTube YouTube dot com

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Speaker 1: Slash Fantasy Pros MLB. For Joe Rico, I'm Chris Welsh.

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Speaker 1: Want talk to you next time right here on Fantasy Pros.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast.

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Speaker 2: If you love the show, the best freeway to support

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