1 00:00:03,760 --> 00:00:08,280 Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg Sound On. 2 00:00:09,280 --> 00:00:11,840 Speaker 1: Before the world there were eighty thousand American troops in 3 00:00:11,880 --> 00:00:15,040 Speaker 1: Europe on rotational or permanent orders. Now there's more than 4 00:00:15,120 --> 00:00:19,360 Speaker 1: a hundred dollars. We will sustain what we're doing, not 5 00:00:19,440 --> 00:00:22,200 Speaker 1: just next month, the following month, but for the remainder 6 00:00:22,280 --> 00:00:26,840 Speaker 1: this entire year. Bloomberg Sound On Politics, Policy and Perspective 7 00:00:27,000 --> 00:00:30,760 Speaker 1: from DC's top name. No one case senator can stand 8 00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 1: in for. I'm not asking that, I'm asking if you 9 00:00:32,880 --> 00:00:37,080 Speaker 1: regret this sentence, nobody's gonna steal that joy. You have 10 00:00:37,200 --> 00:00:41,440 Speaker 1: earned this spot. You are worthy. Bloomberg Sound On with 11 00:00:41,600 --> 00:00:46,760 Speaker 1: Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. President Biden meets with NATO 12 00:00:46,880 --> 00:00:49,400 Speaker 1: in Brussels and calls for Russia to be kicked out 13 00:00:49,400 --> 00:00:52,880 Speaker 1: of the g twenty. Welcome to the fastest hour in politics, 14 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:56,280 Speaker 1: as Vladimir Prutin watches from Moscow and the war in 15 00:00:56,440 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 1: Ukraine hits the one month mark. Today, we'll be joined 16 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:03,920 Speaker 1: by Angelus Stent, professor Emerita at Georgetown University, author of 17 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:08,280 Speaker 1: Putin's World. Later, we'll talk with Congressman Andy Levin, Democrat 18 00:01:08,280 --> 00:01:10,759 Speaker 1: from Michigan, who serves on the House Foreign Affairs Committee 19 00:01:10,760 --> 00:01:13,679 Speaker 1: and a special panel today Joel Rubin, former Deputy Assistant 20 00:01:13,680 --> 00:01:16,640 Speaker 1: Secretary of State, along with Bret Brun of the Global 21 00:01:16,680 --> 00:01:20,120 Speaker 1: Situation Room, as we keep our view abroad here with 22 00:01:20,200 --> 00:01:24,680 Speaker 1: Foreign Affairs driving the conversation in Washington. President Biden today 23 00:01:24,760 --> 00:01:28,720 Speaker 1: started his day in Brussels with an extraordinary as it's called, 24 00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:32,880 Speaker 1: an extraordinary summit of NATO's thirty members issued a statement 25 00:01:32,920 --> 00:01:37,200 Speaker 1: calling on all countries, including China, to quote abstain from 26 00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:40,600 Speaker 1: supporting Russia's war effort in any way and refrain from 27 00:01:40,640 --> 00:01:46,080 Speaker 1: any action that helps Russia's circumvents sanctions. NATO Secretary General 28 00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:48,920 Speaker 1: Again Stoltenberg, whose term was just extended for another year, 29 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:52,200 Speaker 1: today again warned of a possible chemical weapons attack by 30 00:01:52,280 --> 00:01:59,680 Speaker 1: Russia in Ukraine. Any use of chemical weapons will totally 31 00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:02,160 Speaker 1: change the nature or the conflict. It will be a 32 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:08,040 Speaker 1: blatant violation of international law and um UH, it will 33 00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:13,760 Speaker 1: have wide spread consequences. The Group of Seven leaders then 34 00:02:13,800 --> 00:02:18,760 Speaker 1: warned Vladimir Putin against using chemical or nuclear weapons, and 35 00:02:18,840 --> 00:02:22,040 Speaker 1: President Biden told reporters when asked in a news conference 36 00:02:22,040 --> 00:02:24,720 Speaker 1: you heard live on Bloomberg, that Russia should be kicked 37 00:02:24,720 --> 00:02:27,360 Speaker 1: out of the G twenty. My answer is yes, it 38 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:32,000 Speaker 1: depends on the G twenty. UM I that was raised today, 39 00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:36,080 Speaker 1: and I raised the possibility if that can't be done, 40 00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:39,680 Speaker 1: if Indonesia and others do not agree, then we should, 41 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:46,480 Speaker 1: in my view, asked to have both UM Ukraine be 42 00:02:46,560 --> 00:02:50,440 Speaker 1: able to attend the media. Virginia Senator Mark Warner, who 43 00:02:50,520 --> 00:02:54,080 Speaker 1: chairs the Intelligence Committee, weighed in on that idea today 44 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:58,440 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg's Balance of Power. If Vladimir Putin is still 45 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:07,320 Speaker 1: killing innocent civilians in Ukraine literally months from now, I 46 00:03:07,360 --> 00:03:12,320 Speaker 1: don't see how any so called civilized nation would allow 47 00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:15,919 Speaker 1: him to participate in any kind of group or meeting 48 00:03:16,080 --> 00:03:19,440 Speaker 1: of world leaders. Let's bring an Angela Stent now, Professor 49 00:03:19,480 --> 00:03:23,520 Speaker 1: Emerita of Government and Foreign Service at Georgetown University, author 50 00:03:23,560 --> 00:03:25,880 Speaker 1: of the book Putin's World, and has been looming large 51 00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:30,520 Speaker 1: in this conversation, certainly here on Bloomberg Radio, Angela, welcome back. 52 00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:34,560 Speaker 1: As Vladimir Putin watches these meetings, here's talk of being 53 00:03:34,600 --> 00:03:38,440 Speaker 1: tossed out of the JET twenty considers the new sanctions announced. 54 00:03:38,760 --> 00:03:43,119 Speaker 1: Will he view all of this as an escalation? Yes, 55 00:03:43,200 --> 00:03:45,400 Speaker 1: I mean I think it will reinforce his view that 56 00:03:45,480 --> 00:03:47,800 Speaker 1: the West is out to get him to his narrative 57 00:03:47,840 --> 00:03:51,240 Speaker 1: to the Russian people that the US and NATO we're 58 00:03:51,360 --> 00:03:54,600 Speaker 1: using Ukraine as a way of trying to invade Russia. 59 00:03:55,000 --> 00:03:58,880 Speaker 1: So this is just going to reinforce everything that he believed, 60 00:03:58,960 --> 00:04:01,840 Speaker 1: and he would see this as an escalation. He's already 61 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:05,480 Speaker 1: seen the sanctions that we've imposed as an escalation. What 62 00:04:05,560 --> 00:04:09,280 Speaker 1: does that mean for his near term strategy? Then? Uh, 63 00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:12,800 Speaker 1: if I can use that term strategy. Yeah, we're not 64 00:04:12,880 --> 00:04:15,080 Speaker 1: quite sure what the strategy is because it isn't going 65 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:18,080 Speaker 1: so well. Um. You know that the concern that was 66 00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:21,640 Speaker 1: expressed today that since he's not getting where he wants 67 00:04:21,680 --> 00:04:24,360 Speaker 1: to be in Ukrainians, since the Ukrainians are really resisting, 68 00:04:24,600 --> 00:04:29,159 Speaker 1: would he resort then to using chemical weapons for instance, um, 69 00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:32,000 Speaker 1: and seeing whether he can achieve his aims, which is 70 00:04:32,000 --> 00:04:35,880 Speaker 1: a surrender by President to Lensky, the surrender to Russia. 71 00:04:36,320 --> 00:04:39,440 Speaker 1: Would he try using those or some other form of 72 00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:42,760 Speaker 1: w m D or even as he is sort of 73 00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:46,760 Speaker 1: threatened to do a tactical nuclear weapon, do these warnings 74 00:04:46,760 --> 00:04:49,320 Speaker 1: then mean anything to him or embolden him make him 75 00:04:49,320 --> 00:04:52,040 Speaker 1: want to do this more? When you hear from President Biden, 76 00:04:52,040 --> 00:04:55,200 Speaker 1: from Yen st Altenberg warning or the G seven against 77 00:04:55,240 --> 00:04:59,440 Speaker 1: doing the very thing they expect he'll do. Well, the 78 00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:02,680 Speaker 1: question is he's not sure what they would do. And 79 00:05:02,960 --> 00:05:05,800 Speaker 1: you know what NATO, for instance, would do in return 80 00:05:05,880 --> 00:05:08,400 Speaker 1: in retaliation if he did use a chemical weapon. So 81 00:05:08,520 --> 00:05:12,039 Speaker 1: I guess that kind of strategic ambiguity keeping him guessing 82 00:05:12,320 --> 00:05:15,560 Speaker 1: that could be also more of a deterrent. That's certainly 83 00:05:15,560 --> 00:05:18,479 Speaker 1: what it's supposed to be. The threat of sanctions didn't 84 00:05:18,520 --> 00:05:23,040 Speaker 1: determine from invading Ukraine, but possibly the threat of retaliation might. 85 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:27,200 Speaker 1: The latest round of sanctions targets lawmakers, as you know, uh, 86 00:05:27,520 --> 00:05:29,800 Speaker 1: members of the Russian Parliament, if I can call it that, 87 00:05:29,960 --> 00:05:32,839 Speaker 1: the Duma. Are they close enough? Are those lawmakers close 88 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:35,960 Speaker 1: enough to Vladimir Putin to apply any pressure or is 89 00:05:35,960 --> 00:05:40,279 Speaker 1: that a symbolic move. No, No, that's the symbolic move. Uh, 90 00:05:40,320 --> 00:05:44,000 Speaker 1: And you know it's uh. I mean they also do 91 00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:46,120 Speaker 1: what the Kremlin tells them to do. So the fact 92 00:05:46,160 --> 00:05:48,640 Speaker 1: that they're sanctioned and a lot of other people clearly 93 00:05:48,640 --> 00:05:50,719 Speaker 1: in the Kremlin the sanctions, that's not going to have 94 00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:54,479 Speaker 1: any impact on what Putin does. We've asked you a 95 00:05:54,480 --> 00:05:56,840 Speaker 1: few times, Angela over the course of this war about 96 00:05:56,839 --> 00:06:00,240 Speaker 1: Putin's intentions and realizing no one can get inside his head, 97 00:06:00,640 --> 00:06:02,440 Speaker 1: but you know him better than most. Now that we're 98 00:06:02,440 --> 00:06:06,640 Speaker 1: a month into this today, the Russian advances stalled. Thousands 99 00:06:06,640 --> 00:06:09,040 Speaker 1: of Russian troops have been killed. I've seen numbers as 100 00:06:09,080 --> 00:06:12,800 Speaker 1: high as fifteen thousand. Is there any turning back for 101 00:06:12,880 --> 00:06:17,200 Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin or or Ukraine must fall? I don't think 102 00:06:17,240 --> 00:06:21,040 Speaker 1: there's any turning back. The best possibility would be that 103 00:06:21,160 --> 00:06:24,560 Speaker 1: at some point he's willing to accept a negotiated settlement. 104 00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:28,000 Speaker 1: The negotiations going on right now, but they are at 105 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:29,839 Speaker 1: a low level, and from the Russian point, you do, 106 00:06:29,839 --> 00:06:32,520 Speaker 1: they're not serious. I think the Ukrainians serious about it, 107 00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:36,719 Speaker 1: So you know, neutrality for Ukraine with some kind of 108 00:06:36,760 --> 00:06:39,159 Speaker 1: security guarantee. You then we got into the question of 109 00:06:39,480 --> 00:06:42,240 Speaker 1: would Ukraine recognize that you say that Crimeer is part 110 00:06:42,240 --> 00:06:45,840 Speaker 1: of Russia, that the Donbas region is independent. I mean 111 00:06:45,839 --> 00:06:48,360 Speaker 1: there are things that can be negotiated where Putin could 112 00:06:48,360 --> 00:06:50,720 Speaker 1: come out and say, well, we want ukraim is, I'm 113 00:06:50,800 --> 00:06:53,600 Speaker 1: going to join NATO, and we're not there yet. Is 114 00:06:53,640 --> 00:06:56,280 Speaker 1: it foolish to believe that these talks could bring at 115 00:06:56,360 --> 00:07:00,719 Speaker 1: least a cease fire, if not something more permanent. They 116 00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:04,000 Speaker 1: could bring a cease fire again if the Russians are 117 00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:07,680 Speaker 1: serious about it. Unfortunately, today one of the negotiators, the 118 00:07:07,720 --> 00:07:11,760 Speaker 1: head of the negotiating group, made some very inflammatory statements. 119 00:07:11,840 --> 00:07:14,120 Speaker 1: So um, it's hard to see where that goes. But 120 00:07:14,440 --> 00:07:16,440 Speaker 1: one would hope that at least a cease fire could 121 00:07:16,440 --> 00:07:19,040 Speaker 1: come out of them in a few weeks. Maybe. Well, 122 00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:22,440 Speaker 1: I'll tell you, the near term looks pretty ugly, Angela. 123 00:07:22,520 --> 00:07:26,880 Speaker 1: As we've seen, as we've seen the sanctions take place, 124 00:07:26,960 --> 00:07:30,560 Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin becoming more desperate. This talk of him feeling cornered. 125 00:07:31,520 --> 00:07:33,560 Speaker 1: Is he more dangerous now than he was a month ago? 126 00:07:35,360 --> 00:07:38,960 Speaker 1: It's possible that he is. The Only thing to counter 127 00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:42,240 Speaker 1: that would be that we hear rumors of not everyone 128 00:07:42,400 --> 00:07:44,880 Speaker 1: is happy in the camp around him. I don't know 129 00:07:44,880 --> 00:07:47,560 Speaker 1: how that's going to impact on him, but he wants 130 00:07:47,640 --> 00:07:53,080 Speaker 1: us to think that he's more dangerous. What would move him, then, Angela, 131 00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:56,320 Speaker 1: stand if if is it people in the streets or 132 00:07:56,360 --> 00:07:58,400 Speaker 1: is it the people in his inner circle? For to 133 00:07:58,520 --> 00:08:02,880 Speaker 1: whatever extent that that exists, well, if people and people 134 00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:06,600 Speaker 1: in his inner circle were to really, you know, tell him, 135 00:08:07,000 --> 00:08:10,520 Speaker 1: let's rethink this and trying persuade him to do something different. 136 00:08:10,840 --> 00:08:13,120 Speaker 1: But we again, we don't have too much evidence that 137 00:08:13,200 --> 00:08:15,120 Speaker 1: the people in his inner circle are going to tell 138 00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:18,280 Speaker 1: them things he doesn't want to hear, and so that 139 00:08:18,280 --> 00:08:21,559 Speaker 1: that that's where you know, you got stuck on trying 140 00:08:21,600 --> 00:08:25,360 Speaker 1: to understand how he gets beyond this. President Biden spent 141 00:08:25,440 --> 00:08:28,920 Speaker 1: some time today talking about sanctions and suggested that they 142 00:08:28,920 --> 00:08:32,720 Speaker 1: were never intended to be a deterrent. I'm not sure 143 00:08:32,720 --> 00:08:35,080 Speaker 1: if you heard the language he used in that news conference, 144 00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:37,920 Speaker 1: but we heard for weeks that that's why the administration 145 00:08:37,960 --> 00:08:41,320 Speaker 1: was holding off on some of the most difficult sanctions, 146 00:08:41,400 --> 00:08:45,040 Speaker 1: because they wanted to hold that as a deterrent. Would 147 00:08:45,080 --> 00:08:48,400 Speaker 1: either move have been more effective with Vladimir Putin if 148 00:08:48,440 --> 00:08:50,760 Speaker 1: they had slammed him with sanctions up front, would it 149 00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:55,439 Speaker 1: have changed his behavior as opposed to waiting. I don't 150 00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:57,440 Speaker 1: think so. I think he was determined to do it. 151 00:08:57,800 --> 00:08:59,959 Speaker 1: You know they were. They started massing the troops though 152 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:03,520 Speaker 1: in October, and all of our intelligence people thought that 153 00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:05,000 Speaker 1: that's what they were going to do. There was going 154 00:09:05,040 --> 00:09:08,040 Speaker 1: to be a full fledged invasion. I think maybe he 155 00:09:08,080 --> 00:09:11,520 Speaker 1: didn't realize how extensive the sanctions would be or that 156 00:09:11,559 --> 00:09:15,080 Speaker 1: the Europeans would go along with detre extensive sanctions. But 157 00:09:15,320 --> 00:09:18,040 Speaker 1: I don't really think that imposing them before the war 158 00:09:18,160 --> 00:09:21,520 Speaker 1: started would have stopped the war. President Biden also suggested 159 00:09:21,520 --> 00:09:25,640 Speaker 1: today that Vladimir Putin had no clue what ramifications, what 160 00:09:25,760 --> 00:09:29,440 Speaker 1: kind of impact this would have the side effects in Europe. 161 00:09:29,720 --> 00:09:32,360 Speaker 1: This is what he said. Prutin was banking on NATO 162 00:09:32,440 --> 00:09:35,719 Speaker 1: being split. My early conversation with him in December and 163 00:09:35,800 --> 00:09:38,520 Speaker 1: early January, it was clear to me he didn't think 164 00:09:38,559 --> 00:09:44,560 Speaker 1: we could sustain this cohesion. NATO has never never been 165 00:09:44,720 --> 00:09:48,760 Speaker 1: more united than it is today. Putin is getting exactly 166 00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:52,400 Speaker 1: the opposite what he intended to have as a consequence 167 00:09:52,440 --> 00:09:55,280 Speaker 1: of going into Ukraine. What do you suspect Angelus sent 168 00:09:55,920 --> 00:10:01,040 Speaker 1: the psychological impact that has had on Vladimir Putin, Well, 169 00:10:01,080 --> 00:10:04,640 Speaker 1: I think it's it's made. It must have made him 170 00:10:04,679 --> 00:10:08,040 Speaker 1: at least rethink some of his premises, uh that he 171 00:10:08,120 --> 00:10:11,520 Speaker 1: really didn't believe that there would be transatlantic unity. I 172 00:10:11,559 --> 00:10:14,240 Speaker 1: think it would also make him realize that, maybe, you know, 173 00:10:14,320 --> 00:10:17,120 Speaker 1: the US is stronger than he thinks. He looked at US, 174 00:10:17,160 --> 00:10:19,760 Speaker 1: he looked at what happened in Afghanistan. He saw the 175 00:10:19,760 --> 00:10:23,200 Speaker 1: difficulties that the Biden administration was having getting any any 176 00:10:23,200 --> 00:10:26,200 Speaker 1: of its legislative agenda through. So he thought the US 177 00:10:26,360 --> 00:10:29,320 Speaker 1: was weak, distracted, and couldn't come up with a coherent 178 00:10:29,400 --> 00:10:32,559 Speaker 1: foreign policy. He was wrong there, boy, I guess so. 179 00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:36,200 Speaker 1: Angela Stent, Senior Adviser to the Center for Eurasian, Russian 180 00:10:36,240 --> 00:10:40,800 Speaker 1: East European Studies, Professor Emerita, Georgetown University. The book of 181 00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:44,079 Speaker 1: Course Putin's World really appreciated Angela having you back, and 182 00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:46,760 Speaker 1: I look forward to the next time we get to speak, 183 00:10:47,960 --> 00:10:51,160 Speaker 1: of course, part of the whole well, pomp and circumstance, 184 00:10:51,240 --> 00:10:54,000 Speaker 1: even though this was far from a celebration today in Brussels, 185 00:10:54,080 --> 00:10:58,360 Speaker 1: but an extraordinary summit of NATO nations, of course has 186 00:10:58,400 --> 00:11:01,280 Speaker 1: to come with the family photo. Your excellencies, if I 187 00:11:01,280 --> 00:11:04,960 Speaker 1: can ask you to look into the camera for five seconds, 188 00:11:06,800 --> 00:11:11,160 Speaker 1: hold it, suck it in. Wait which camera? So what 189 00:11:11,240 --> 00:11:13,840 Speaker 1: do you tell you which camera we're going? Yes, that camera, 190 00:11:13,920 --> 00:11:18,280 Speaker 1: that's the camera, Thank you very much. And another your 191 00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:21,920 Speaker 1: left and walk into room one. Indeed, meet you in 192 00:11:22,080 --> 00:11:27,839 Speaker 1: room one here on Bloomberg sound on. I love those pictures, though, 193 00:11:27,880 --> 00:11:29,959 Speaker 1: did you say have them all lined up kind of diagonal? 194 00:11:30,640 --> 00:11:33,280 Speaker 1: Nobody looked quite ready for the photo. How could you 195 00:11:33,320 --> 00:11:35,320 Speaker 1: do that with thirty people? But there it is the 196 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:41,559 Speaker 1: family photo for the NATO summit. This mar coming up 197 00:11:41,559 --> 00:11:44,240 Speaker 1: on sound on. There is progress and you can read 198 00:11:44,240 --> 00:11:46,320 Speaker 1: about this on the terminal. This is not getting as 199 00:11:46,400 --> 00:11:49,600 Speaker 1: much attention because of what's happening with the foreign trip, 200 00:11:49,640 --> 00:11:53,560 Speaker 1: but there's progress on sanctions on Capitol Hill. Appears to 201 00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:55,080 Speaker 1: be a bit of a breakthrough in the Senate. The 202 00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:57,600 Speaker 1: House already passed to bill. The Senate's working on. It's 203 00:11:57,640 --> 00:12:01,840 Speaker 1: remembering this would revoke normal trade relations with Russia and 204 00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:05,800 Speaker 1: would also ban Russian oil and gas, even as President 205 00:12:05,840 --> 00:12:10,000 Speaker 1: Biden says though that sanctions are not meant to deter 206 00:12:10,360 --> 00:12:13,240 Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin. We're gonna talk about this with Congressman Andy 207 00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:16,960 Speaker 1: Levin coming up next on the Fastest Hour in Politics, 208 00:12:16,960 --> 00:12:18,959 Speaker 1: and we'll check the markets in traffic for you as well. 209 00:12:18,960 --> 00:12:21,120 Speaker 1: Stay right where you are. I'm Joe Matthew and Washington. 210 00:12:21,200 --> 00:12:30,640 Speaker 1: Glad you're here. This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg. So 211 00:12:30,960 --> 00:12:37,160 Speaker 1: long with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. We're still waiting 212 00:12:37,200 --> 00:12:41,560 Speaker 1: for Congress to produce a final sanctions package of its own. 213 00:12:41,600 --> 00:12:44,160 Speaker 1: The administration has been directing this so far, but things 214 00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:46,520 Speaker 1: have been bogged down in the Senate. And as I 215 00:12:46,559 --> 00:12:49,800 Speaker 1: read on the terminal, senators agree on Russian oil band 216 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:54,680 Speaker 1: it's a breakthrough or visit disputes stall trade bill. I 217 00:12:54,760 --> 00:12:57,000 Speaker 1: read as well, there are two different paths here. That's 218 00:12:57,040 --> 00:12:59,800 Speaker 1: the move with regard to trade, the move to roof 219 00:12:59,840 --> 00:13:02,360 Speaker 1: a normal trade relations with Russia. The President called for 220 00:13:02,400 --> 00:13:04,600 Speaker 1: that a couple of weeks ago, needs Congress to actually 221 00:13:04,600 --> 00:13:09,040 Speaker 1: do it now. That's separate from legislation to ban Russian 222 00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:11,480 Speaker 1: oil and gas. And we're joined out by Congressman Andy Levin, 223 00:13:11,520 --> 00:13:15,440 Speaker 1: Democrat from Michigan, who serves on the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Congressman, 224 00:13:15,480 --> 00:13:17,720 Speaker 1: I know you already passed a bill in the House 225 00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:21,920 Speaker 1: to ban Russian oil imports. There's now an agreement apparently 226 00:13:21,920 --> 00:13:24,480 Speaker 1: in the Senate, though, to revise the language in that 227 00:13:24,520 --> 00:13:27,240 Speaker 1: bill and set standards for when the President could resume 228 00:13:28,120 --> 00:13:32,880 Speaker 1: those oil imports. Is that something that you would support, Well, 229 00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:35,440 Speaker 1: we'll have to look at it, Joe. Anytime the Senate 230 00:13:35,480 --> 00:13:39,400 Speaker 1: does anything, I cheer, So I'm glad they're finally taking 231 00:13:39,400 --> 00:13:42,480 Speaker 1: this up and getting something done. You know, the legislative 232 00:13:42,480 --> 00:13:45,280 Speaker 1: process involves back and forth and give and take. So 233 00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:48,400 Speaker 1: let's see what they're proposing. But we've got to ban 234 00:13:49,240 --> 00:13:52,880 Speaker 1: the use of Russian oil in the United States, and 235 00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:56,080 Speaker 1: so let's get it done. That's my opinion. The version 236 00:13:56,080 --> 00:13:58,960 Speaker 1: crafted by Leadership and the Senate Finance Committee would allow 237 00:13:59,000 --> 00:14:02,560 Speaker 1: the President to resume him Russian oil imports if Russia 238 00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:07,120 Speaker 1: sees his aggression against Ukraine, recognizes its independence, and does 239 00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:10,080 Speaker 1: not pose a threat to NATO. Could any of those 240 00:14:10,120 --> 00:14:14,000 Speaker 1: happen though, without regime change in Russia. That's a really 241 00:14:14,040 --> 00:14:17,400 Speaker 1: good question, Joe. But I don't just I'm I'm only 242 00:14:17,440 --> 00:14:19,960 Speaker 1: reacting to what you're saying, right, because I haven't read it. 243 00:14:20,040 --> 00:14:22,560 Speaker 1: I understand those kind of First of all, it says 244 00:14:22,600 --> 00:14:26,920 Speaker 1: he may right, and it's it's permissive language. And then 245 00:14:26,960 --> 00:14:30,480 Speaker 1: I think those are reasonable, you know, reasonable conditions on 246 00:14:30,520 --> 00:14:34,040 Speaker 1: the face of it. Whether you know, right now we've 247 00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:41,280 Speaker 1: got megalomaniacal autocrat leading Russia. He can't even see what's 248 00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:44,960 Speaker 1: happening in the world because he's so isolated. He completely 249 00:14:45,040 --> 00:14:49,160 Speaker 1: misjudged the bravery and strength and preparedness of the Ukrainian 250 00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:53,880 Speaker 1: people in military. He completely misjudged his own military's readiness 251 00:14:53,880 --> 00:14:57,440 Speaker 1: and capability. Um, he misjudged the how the whole world 252 00:14:57,440 --> 00:15:00,800 Speaker 1: would react. So UM, it's very hard to predict what 253 00:15:00,880 --> 00:15:03,960 Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin will do, but we have to box him 254 00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:07,440 Speaker 1: in as much as possible. The Congressman, I want to 255 00:15:07,440 --> 00:15:09,640 Speaker 1: ask you about something the President said today in Brussels. 256 00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:12,360 Speaker 1: I don't know if you saw his news conference that 257 00:15:12,360 --> 00:15:15,920 Speaker 1: that that raised some questions when asked if the sanctions 258 00:15:16,920 --> 00:15:19,080 Speaker 1: that were announced today and those that have already been 259 00:15:19,080 --> 00:15:22,440 Speaker 1: announced would deter Vladimir Putin. Here's what the President said. 260 00:15:22,520 --> 00:15:24,680 Speaker 1: Let's get something strated. You remember, if you're covered me, 261 00:15:24,720 --> 00:15:27,680 Speaker 1: from the very beginning, I did not say that, in fact, 262 00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:33,440 Speaker 1: the sanctions would deter him. Sanctions never deter. You keep 263 00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:39,400 Speaker 1: talking about that, sanctions never deter. The maintenans of sanctions, 264 00:15:40,080 --> 00:15:44,680 Speaker 1: the maintenance of sanctions, the increasing the pain and the demonstration. 265 00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:47,280 Speaker 1: Why I asked for this NATO meeting today is to 266 00:15:47,360 --> 00:15:51,480 Speaker 1: be sure that after a month we will sustain what 267 00:15:51,520 --> 00:15:54,680 Speaker 1: we're doing, not just next month, the following month, but 268 00:15:54,760 --> 00:15:59,440 Speaker 1: for the remainder this entire year. That's what will stop. Okay, Congressman, 269 00:15:59,440 --> 00:16:03,080 Speaker 1: I'm I'm so glad you're here for this. Democrats had 270 00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:06,880 Speaker 1: been arguing with Republicans about the timeline right on sanctions 271 00:16:06,880 --> 00:16:09,680 Speaker 1: and said for weeks that we should wait to impose 272 00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:13,960 Speaker 1: sanctions so they could deter Vladimir Putin's behavior. Otherwise, the 273 00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:16,680 Speaker 1: idea was he would have no motivation to stop if 274 00:16:16,720 --> 00:16:18,480 Speaker 1: we front loaded all of this. So what am I 275 00:16:18,520 --> 00:16:24,440 Speaker 1: missing here when it comes to sanctions do not deter? Well, 276 00:16:25,000 --> 00:16:29,040 Speaker 1: I mean I don't. I'm not really um that into 277 00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:34,120 Speaker 1: parsing the president's words. I support the president's actions. I mean, 278 00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:36,840 Speaker 1: the president of the United States. So was it right 279 00:16:36,920 --> 00:16:40,760 Speaker 1: to imply to impose sanctions? Oh? Yes, Oh yes, So 280 00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:44,600 Speaker 1: regardless of of of of the discussion right now, it 281 00:16:44,800 --> 00:16:50,600 Speaker 1: does most historians, most military analysts, certainly our own military 282 00:16:50,680 --> 00:16:54,880 Speaker 1: folks at the highest levels, did not think it made 283 00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:59,600 Speaker 1: sense to impose harsh sanctions beforehand, because then he has 284 00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:02,280 Speaker 1: nothing to lose. We already did the bad thing to him, 285 00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:06,720 Speaker 1: so he'll go ahead. Yeah. I understand the rationality. Yeah, 286 00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:09,240 Speaker 1: I think that's what the President's referring to. But I 287 00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:13,000 Speaker 1: think it could lead to confusion now because obviously now 288 00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:17,880 Speaker 1: we are trying to impact uh, you know, Vladimir Putin's behavior, 289 00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:22,600 Speaker 1: and look, the severity of these sanctions, and there's really 290 00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:26,720 Speaker 1: no way to talk about them without the global nature 291 00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:30,440 Speaker 1: of them. How many countries are participating, how many companies 292 00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:33,080 Speaker 1: are stepping up and saying we're out of Russia. I mean, 293 00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:36,679 Speaker 1: it's just the self sanctioning has been it's been remarkable. 294 00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:38,640 Speaker 1: It's been a remarkable part of this story, and it's 295 00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:40,640 Speaker 1: been a big part of the story for Bloomberg. Of course, 296 00:17:40,680 --> 00:17:44,720 Speaker 1: as we cover, uh, you know, the political and corporate 297 00:17:44,760 --> 00:17:47,359 Speaker 1: side of things. But this was an argument that was 298 00:17:47,400 --> 00:17:50,520 Speaker 1: had on this program and across our platform for weeks, Congressmen, 299 00:17:50,560 --> 00:17:52,439 Speaker 1: which is why I ask you about it, and the 300 00:17:52,440 --> 00:17:55,240 Speaker 1: President today was pretty clear about it. Here again, sanctions 301 00:17:55,320 --> 00:17:59,600 Speaker 1: never deter. You keep talking about they never deter. Sanctions 302 00:17:59,800 --> 00:18:03,160 Speaker 1: never her deter. But maybe I'm misunderstanding what he meant. 303 00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:05,000 Speaker 1: I realized you don't want to parse his words. But 304 00:18:05,040 --> 00:18:07,280 Speaker 1: the messaging from the Democratic Party has been very clear 305 00:18:07,280 --> 00:18:12,160 Speaker 1: on this. Yeah, No, I I think, Um, I really 306 00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:15,240 Speaker 1: don't know exactly what he was saying, and I didn't 307 00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:17,280 Speaker 1: hear the whole thing. I don't know the context. But 308 00:18:17,359 --> 00:18:19,879 Speaker 1: I'll just tell you what I think, Joe, which is 309 00:18:19,920 --> 00:18:25,399 Speaker 1: that we are seeing history change before our eyes. Countries 310 00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:29,960 Speaker 1: are changing their postures that they've held for decades and 311 00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:35,280 Speaker 1: even century. Switzerland, Germany, Um, you know Finland. I mean 312 00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:39,520 Speaker 1: in terms of whether it's their military expenditures, whether it's 313 00:18:39,560 --> 00:18:43,600 Speaker 1: moving off neutrality, whether it's possibly joining NATO. So I 314 00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:47,280 Speaker 1: think that whatever the exact words are, Um, Joe Biden 315 00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:49,480 Speaker 1: is is uniting the world in this and the the 316 00:18:49,520 --> 00:18:53,800 Speaker 1: effectiveness of sanctions depend on everybody working together. And that's 317 00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:57,240 Speaker 1: what's so encouragingly curious to see what the House and 318 00:18:57,320 --> 00:18:59,800 Speaker 1: Senate can get together on. Congressmen would love to stay 319 00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:02,760 Speaker 1: into touch with you, wanted Andy Levin of Michigan Foreign 320 00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:06,200 Speaker 1: Affairs Committee right here on sound on. I'm Joe Matthew. 321 00:19:06,520 --> 00:19:14,760 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg. So long with Joe 322 00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:20,800 Speaker 1: Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. To deter or not to deter 323 00:19:21,960 --> 00:19:24,800 Speaker 1: is the question today in Brussels, where new sanctions are 324 00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:29,240 Speaker 1: announced and President Biden saying they were never intended to 325 00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:35,240 Speaker 1: deter Vladimir Putin. Yet the cumulative effects, he seems to suggest, 326 00:19:35,280 --> 00:19:38,280 Speaker 1: will as this war continues now at the one month 327 00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:41,680 Speaker 1: mark today and coming up will assemble our Special Foreign 328 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:45,000 Speaker 1: Policy Panel with Joel Rubin, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of 329 00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:48,800 Speaker 1: State and Brett Bruin, Global Situation Room President, former Director 330 00:19:48,840 --> 00:19:51,520 Speaker 1: of Global Engagement at the White House. Headline on the 331 00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:55,440 Speaker 1: terminal big splash today from Brussels. Biden calls for Russia 332 00:19:55,480 --> 00:19:57,760 Speaker 1: to be removed from G twenty. We talked about it 333 00:19:57,800 --> 00:20:01,119 Speaker 1: with Angela Stent earlier. This is not up to Joe Biden. 334 00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:02,679 Speaker 1: By the way, the G twenty will need to think 335 00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:05,120 Speaker 1: about this, because you might have seen this report yesterday 336 00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:06,840 Speaker 1: of Vladimir Putin was thinking of showing up at the 337 00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:10,000 Speaker 1: G twenty meeting. He may not be part of the 338 00:20:10,040 --> 00:20:14,760 Speaker 1: G twenty by the time there is one. As we 339 00:20:14,800 --> 00:20:18,480 Speaker 1: assemble our foreign policy panel today, a conversation that I've 340 00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:20,639 Speaker 1: been looking forward to with two voices you've heard in 341 00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:24,639 Speaker 1: two of the smartest minds on geopolitics. Here on sound On. 342 00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:27,880 Speaker 1: Joel Rubin is with us, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, 343 00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:31,040 Speaker 1: was in the Obama and Bush administrations, the co host 344 00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:34,800 Speaker 1: of Really American's new foreign policy podcast, Warning Shot, along 345 00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:38,159 Speaker 1: with BREETT. Bruin, Global Situation Room President, former Director of 346 00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:40,639 Speaker 1: Global Engagement at the White House. Thanks to both of 347 00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:44,119 Speaker 1: you for being here. Joel throwing Russia out of the 348 00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:47,800 Speaker 1: G twenty might not seem like a lot following, you know, 349 00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:52,000 Speaker 1: the disconnecting of Russia's economy from the rest of the world. 350 00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:55,960 Speaker 1: Of course, the sanctions that have come from uh, the 351 00:20:56,040 --> 00:20:59,720 Speaker 1: United States and NATO countries. Would kick him out of 352 00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:04,280 Speaker 1: the G twenty be a message that Vladimir Putin could 353 00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:06,200 Speaker 1: deal with. He seemed to want to go to this meeting. 354 00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:11,679 Speaker 1: Would he see that as an escalation? Joe, Um, you 355 00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:14,360 Speaker 1: know what, what what is it? One small step for man, 356 00:21:14,520 --> 00:21:17,760 Speaker 1: one giant step for mankind? Uh? It would. It would 357 00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:22,000 Speaker 1: be a nice kick out for him. He is still 358 00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:25,560 Speaker 1: smarting from getting kicked out of the G eight G seven, 359 00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:28,440 Speaker 1: as it is appropriately known right now, So that would 360 00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:31,320 Speaker 1: get under his skin a little bit. It would. It 361 00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:34,120 Speaker 1: would be a very good symbol. And it of course 362 00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:38,760 Speaker 1: has practical effects, which are that these organizations G twenty 363 00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:42,359 Speaker 1: makes policy amongst itself and then sort of sets the 364 00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:46,119 Speaker 1: policy for the rest of the world by organizing amongst itself. 365 00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:48,360 Speaker 1: So he would be out of that room, not at 366 00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:53,679 Speaker 1: the table. Another loss, another loss and more isolation for 367 00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:56,640 Speaker 1: for Vladimir Putin. Brett. I don't know if you've heard 368 00:21:56,720 --> 00:22:00,159 Speaker 1: my conversation with Congressman Levin about the sanctions. But I'm 369 00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:02,000 Speaker 1: still scratching my head and I'd love for both of 370 00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:04,879 Speaker 1: you to weigh in on this. The President today saying 371 00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:09,000 Speaker 1: that sanctions were never designed to deter Vladimir Putin's behavior, 372 00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:12,000 Speaker 1: which would run against everything that we heard from not 373 00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:15,560 Speaker 1: only the administration but Democrats on Capitol Hill who argued 374 00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:18,800 Speaker 1: for weeks with Republicans that front loading sanctions imposing them 375 00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:21,119 Speaker 1: now would be the wrong move. And this is the 376 00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:25,359 Speaker 1: President again today, sanctions never deter. You keep talking about 377 00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:31,159 Speaker 1: that sanctions never deter. Is the story changing, Brent, Oh? Absolutely. 378 00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:35,280 Speaker 1: I mean this isn't about face by the administration because 379 00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:39,680 Speaker 1: for months we were told, as you mentioned, that we 380 00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:42,520 Speaker 1: had to keep the threat of sanctions there in order 381 00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:47,479 Speaker 1: to try to dissuade Putin from pursuing this course, and 382 00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:51,240 Speaker 1: now obviously that it didn't work, there is an attempt 383 00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:56,120 Speaker 1: to repaint the picture, unfortunately, and this is where while 384 00:22:56,440 --> 00:23:00,800 Speaker 1: it's good, it's important that we are taking these additional 385 00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:04,760 Speaker 1: steps on sanctions, we have to take a step back 386 00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:10,480 Speaker 1: and look at to what effect because simply doing more 387 00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:16,439 Speaker 1: and more sanctions, I don't know is either sufficient and 388 00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:20,000 Speaker 1: in some cases it may end up, as we've seen before, 389 00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:24,720 Speaker 1: having unintended consequences. And what I'm looking for is one 390 00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:29,160 Speaker 1: other tools can we use to put pressure on the Kremlin? 391 00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:32,720 Speaker 1: Put pressure on Putin personally. I'm not seeing a lot 392 00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:36,200 Speaker 1: of those. What do you make of this, Joel? Is 393 00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:38,800 Speaker 1: is the message changing from the White House or or 394 00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:41,800 Speaker 1: are we trying to make up for lost time here? 395 00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:46,360 Speaker 1: I'm confused. Yeah, No, I actually don't see this as 396 00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:49,400 Speaker 1: inconsistent at all with what the White House has been 397 00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:53,680 Speaker 1: saying for for these months. They don't stop sanctions don't 398 00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:56,840 Speaker 1: stop an invasion from happening, and and the intent was 399 00:23:56,880 --> 00:23:59,159 Speaker 1: to make sure that Putin new the choices were going 400 00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:02,960 Speaker 1: to be severe and and impactful, and he was willing 401 00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:05,000 Speaker 1: to take that risk. And I think what he realizes 402 00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:08,240 Speaker 1: now is that it's grinding down his economy, grinding down 403 00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:11,840 Speaker 1: his military industrial base. They can't get re supply into Theeeder. 404 00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:15,080 Speaker 1: We have a concurrent strategy the sanctions, though, which is 405 00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:19,400 Speaker 1: back filling and supporting the Ukrainian military. Obviously not with 406 00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:22,440 Speaker 1: no fly zone and that is a separate issue, but 407 00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:26,800 Speaker 1: really sending in javelins and other kinds of equipment that 408 00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:29,320 Speaker 1: that that's I think where we're where we're looking at. 409 00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:32,200 Speaker 1: Why not just do it? If if they could never deter, 410 00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:34,800 Speaker 1: which we were told holding back on them would do, 411 00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:37,960 Speaker 1: why not just send everything up front, get these guys 412 00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:40,040 Speaker 1: four to five, put the jets into whatever you need 413 00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:44,000 Speaker 1: to do, javelins or whatever ground air systems we're talking 414 00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:46,159 Speaker 1: about here, and be ready for an invasion instead of 415 00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:49,040 Speaker 1: waiting for one. Well, you know, it's not that they 416 00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:52,080 Speaker 1: weren't ready, and it's not obviously Ukraine was was ready 417 00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:54,320 Speaker 1: to a significant extent. I mean, the Rush has been 418 00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:56,840 Speaker 1: ground down after a month of fighting, they've lost nearly 419 00:24:56,880 --> 00:25:00,359 Speaker 1: forty thou troops, and and the sanctions were perful and 420 00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:03,399 Speaker 1: high impact. I think the hope was And obviously hope 421 00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:05,919 Speaker 1: is a difficult word to use in this case, but 422 00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:07,680 Speaker 1: the hope is that Poodin would have seen the light 423 00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:10,840 Speaker 1: and not made that move to destroy his own economy 424 00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:14,240 Speaker 1: and kill forty of his his troops and get stuck 425 00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:17,199 Speaker 1: in a quagmire. But he did, and and so the 426 00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:20,520 Speaker 1: sanctions were heavy, hard hitting. But we have allies, and 427 00:25:20,560 --> 00:25:23,040 Speaker 1: we can't do them unilaterally. We don't have the ability 428 00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:25,439 Speaker 1: to control Russia's economy on our own. We need Europe, 429 00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:28,360 Speaker 1: and so part of the getting Europe on board component 430 00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:31,640 Speaker 1: to this was, uh, seeing what would happen. And now 431 00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:35,080 Speaker 1: that they've seen what would happen, we've seen Germany react 432 00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:38,800 Speaker 1: and double its military assistance, cancel North Stream too, and 433 00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:42,159 Speaker 1: and it's ongoing. And so the meetings today, tomorrow, the 434 00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:44,960 Speaker 1: Key twenty are going to be continual rolling out. But 435 00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:48,960 Speaker 1: I do agree. I think that sanctions alone cannot stop 436 00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:52,679 Speaker 1: the physical invasion by a country, but it has to 437 00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:55,560 Speaker 1: make the cost so high that they recognize that that 438 00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:58,640 Speaker 1: when combined with the military support, is just too much 439 00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:00,879 Speaker 1: and they have to withdraw. Poodin is not there yet though. 440 00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:03,480 Speaker 1: Unfortunately I understand your point of view, Joel, but I 441 00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:06,320 Speaker 1: mean that that was the argument between Democrats and Republicans. 442 00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:08,880 Speaker 1: Hit him now or use or hold them as a deterrent. 443 00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:10,920 Speaker 1: So I'm just I was I thought that was not 444 00:26:11,080 --> 00:26:13,200 Speaker 1: worthy today, Brett. Does the White House need to clean 445 00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:16,800 Speaker 1: that up? Yeah? And let me quote a Secretary Anthony 446 00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:20,560 Speaker 1: Blincoln on this. This is January of this year. When 447 00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:23,560 Speaker 1: it comes to sanctions, the purpose of those sanctions is 448 00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:28,320 Speaker 1: to deter Russian aggression. So you can't have it both ways. 449 00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:30,560 Speaker 1: And I think we've seen this White House, whether it's 450 00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:34,679 Speaker 1: in Afghanistan, we're now on Russia. Try to do a 451 00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:38,120 Speaker 1: two step and they've got a level both with the 452 00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:42,080 Speaker 1: American people as well as with our allies and understand 453 00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:46,080 Speaker 1: what he is the plan. You know, I don't see 454 00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:49,000 Speaker 1: it from what has come out of Brussels today of 455 00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:52,840 Speaker 1: how we get out of this mess. Simply, you know, 456 00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:57,040 Speaker 1: adding more sanctions on, trying to uh, you know, put 457 00:26:57,359 --> 00:27:00,480 Speaker 1: um the statements out isn't going to end it. Even 458 00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:03,919 Speaker 1: the resupply of the Ukrainians. We gotta do more. Several 459 00:27:04,720 --> 00:27:08,359 Speaker 1: several Republican members of the Senate agree with Brett, and 460 00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:11,040 Speaker 1: I want to ask both of you about this politics 461 00:27:11,080 --> 00:27:14,480 Speaker 1: stopping at the water's edge. Not so much this time. 462 00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:17,199 Speaker 1: Joel and Brett are with us for the rest of 463 00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:20,560 Speaker 1: the hour our Foreign Policy Panel on sound on. I'm 464 00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:29,560 Speaker 1: Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg. So no 465 00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:36,240 Speaker 1: with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. It was Republican Senator 466 00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:40,320 Speaker 1: Arthur Vandenberg, who, as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations 467 00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:44,600 Speaker 1: Committee many decades ago, said politics stops at the water's edge. 468 00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:47,399 Speaker 1: You know that line, Well, that was back during the 469 00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:52,320 Speaker 1: Truman administration, and of course a few things have changed 470 00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:56,000 Speaker 1: as we reassembled the panel with Joel Rubin, former Deputy 471 00:27:56,000 --> 00:28:00,000 Speaker 1: Assistant Secretary of State served in the Obama and Bush administrations. 472 00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:03,800 Speaker 1: Brett Bruin is here to Global Situation Room President, former 473 00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:06,680 Speaker 1: Director of Global Engagements in the Obama White House. It's 474 00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:08,240 Speaker 1: great to have both of you here, and I just 475 00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:11,560 Speaker 1: couldn't help but to see some of the statements and 476 00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:18,040 Speaker 1: the tweets today criticizing President Biden. Ben Sass, the mild 477 00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:22,439 Speaker 1: mannered senator from Nebraska, had one says talking more about 478 00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:25,960 Speaker 1: unity or anything else will not help Ukraine defeat Russian invaders. 479 00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:29,120 Speaker 1: The President still needs to outline a strategy for Zelinski 480 00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:33,399 Speaker 1: to win and Putin to lose. Lindsey Graham took it 481 00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:37,000 Speaker 1: to another level on Twitter. A month into this fight 482 00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:40,480 Speaker 1: for freedom, President Biden has yet to embrace victory for 483 00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:43,480 Speaker 1: Ukraine and has no coherent strategy to bring that about. 484 00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:47,200 Speaker 1: He is always playing catch up and explaining what he 485 00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:51,480 Speaker 1: will not do. So much for the water's edge, Joel, 486 00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:55,160 Speaker 1: who is this helping well? First of all, I wonder 487 00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:58,080 Speaker 1: where they were during four years of Donald Trump's presidency. 488 00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:01,640 Speaker 1: When when they left press and Trump give away the 489 00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:06,480 Speaker 1: sort of Vladimir Putin diplomatically, and UH supported him in 490 00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:11,400 Speaker 1: the in the impeachment for extorting trying to extort political 491 00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:16,160 Speaker 1: favors from Zelenski for blocking military aids. So now the 492 00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:21,040 Speaker 1: partisan politics, well, look is a strong strategy. And and 493 00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:23,240 Speaker 1: the thing about it is that Congress hasn't yet passed 494 00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:26,000 Speaker 1: the bill. They can't even pass a bill to prevent 495 00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:30,160 Speaker 1: Americans from buying Russian oil and it called for a 496 00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:33,080 Speaker 1: couple of weeks ago. So Congress, this is what Congress does. 497 00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:35,800 Speaker 1: I love Congress. I worked with Congress for years, but um, 498 00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:37,800 Speaker 1: usually when they can't get their own work done, they 499 00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:40,400 Speaker 1: complain about the president not being able. But politics stops 500 00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:42,240 Speaker 1: at the water's edges. That I mean, am I just 501 00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:45,320 Speaker 1: being old fashioned? Brett? I realized the answer might be yes, 502 00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:49,920 Speaker 1: We're just beyond that. Now it doesn't matter anymore. Well, 503 00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:52,400 Speaker 1: and this is one of those issues where you're seeing 504 00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:58,120 Speaker 1: a surprising level of common ground between Democrats and Republicans. 505 00:29:58,440 --> 00:30:02,400 Speaker 1: But I would say that the President does have to 506 00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:07,680 Speaker 1: lay out a plan both for how ultimately we will 507 00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:11,480 Speaker 1: try with our allies to bring this crisis to a 508 00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:14,440 Speaker 1: close as well. And I think This is critically important 509 00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:18,720 Speaker 1: we start talking about what we will do to rebuild Ukraine, 510 00:30:19,080 --> 00:30:22,680 Speaker 1: because that is a motivator for the Ukrainians, especially if 511 00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:24,760 Speaker 1: we are not going to go in and take up 512 00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:30,280 Speaker 1: the fight, we have to give them something to fight for. Uh. Look, 513 00:30:30,320 --> 00:30:32,240 Speaker 1: there's a lot that we can say about this, Joel, 514 00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:34,200 Speaker 1: But does it we can the president abroad this kind 515 00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:38,280 Speaker 1: of talk. Oh, I think it. It hurts into a 516 00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:41,680 Speaker 1: certain extent, but I think the president's strength in America's 517 00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:45,240 Speaker 1: image abroad by Leason Brown's not just image but actions. 518 00:30:45,720 --> 00:30:48,840 Speaker 1: We've never seen a more unified NATO. We have our 519 00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:54,080 Speaker 1: allies supporting us in military activities across across Europe and 520 00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:58,320 Speaker 1: in supporting the Ukrainian military right now on sanctions. So 521 00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:01,040 Speaker 1: it hurts them a little bit. But I think that 522 00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:05,960 Speaker 1: overseas people understand as well that American politics, American politics, 523 00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:08,920 Speaker 1: this president has a strong position right now. Well, he 524 00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:11,320 Speaker 1: was asked about this today. Was actually a pretty interesting 525 00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:13,200 Speaker 1: exchange during the news conference. Didn't take a lot of 526 00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:15,719 Speaker 1: questions by the way, he had his prepared remarks, and 527 00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:18,600 Speaker 1: of course he had his list. Uh. And I think 528 00:31:18,680 --> 00:31:21,400 Speaker 1: three people were called, including our very own Josh wind Groves, 529 00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:23,560 Speaker 1: standing up there talking to the presidents, a proud moment 530 00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:27,520 Speaker 1: for to see, to see a colleague overseas. One of 531 00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:30,800 Speaker 1: the one of the questions, though, asked the President about 532 00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:34,320 Speaker 1: the potential for Donald Trump to be reelected and what 533 00:31:35,280 --> 00:31:39,280 Speaker 1: his his European allies as an American. Uh, we're concerned 534 00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:42,240 Speaker 1: about America being back, but only for so long that 535 00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:45,400 Speaker 1: we could revert back to this sort of antagonistic relationship 536 00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:48,160 Speaker 1: with our NATO allies in as little as two years. 537 00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:53,239 Speaker 1: The President had an interesting response to that question. The 538 00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:55,360 Speaker 1: first G seven meeting, and I attendant, like the one 539 00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:58,960 Speaker 1: I did today wasn't great Britain. And I sat down 540 00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:02,560 Speaker 1: and I said America's act and one of the one 541 00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:05,520 Speaker 1: of my counterparts colleagues, a head of state, said for 542 00:32:05,560 --> 00:32:09,640 Speaker 1: how long? For how long? And so I don't blame 543 00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:12,280 Speaker 1: I don't I don't criticize anybody for asking that question. 544 00:32:13,120 --> 00:32:17,600 Speaker 1: But the next election, I'd be very fortunate if I 545 00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:22,239 Speaker 1: had that same man running against me. Okay, you get 546 00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:24,800 Speaker 1: the last four seconds of that one more time. The 547 00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:28,200 Speaker 1: next election, I'd be very fortunate if I had that 548 00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:33,320 Speaker 1: same man running against me, says from the stage in Brussels. 549 00:32:34,440 --> 00:32:38,400 Speaker 1: He'd be fortunate to run against Donald Trump again, Joel, 550 00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:41,240 Speaker 1: do you agree? Well, he beat him by over seven 551 00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:44,440 Speaker 1: million votes the first time, and so you know there's 552 00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:46,480 Speaker 1: no reason to think he wouldn't do it again. Was 553 00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:49,080 Speaker 1: he bothered by that question? Why go there at at 554 00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:52,800 Speaker 1: a NATO summit? Well? I I think what we're seeing 555 00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:55,000 Speaker 1: is is Joe Biden is doing a lot of cleanup 556 00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:58,000 Speaker 1: of Donald Trump's mess over the past year in Europe, 557 00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:02,200 Speaker 1: and and so he is evincing a position that says 558 00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:04,760 Speaker 1: I'm here for you, and the US is here for you, 559 00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:07,000 Speaker 1: and I beat that guy. In fact, I can beat 560 00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:09,840 Speaker 1: him again. And maybe it's as unt, but that's Joe Biden. 561 00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:13,120 Speaker 1: He definitely has a good egge to him when he 562 00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:15,640 Speaker 1: wants to get mixed up in politics that's over two 563 00:33:15,680 --> 00:33:19,800 Speaker 1: years away, Brett, Is it? Is it? Uh? Is it 564 00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:21,560 Speaker 1: a waste of time for the commander in chiefs to 565 00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:24,520 Speaker 1: be sending messages like this on a trip to to 566 00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:29,280 Speaker 1: Brussels surrounded by ARNATO allies. Yeah, this was neither the 567 00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:32,640 Speaker 1: time nor the place to try and pick fights with 568 00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:36,240 Speaker 1: your predecessor, let alone to try to goa to him 569 00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:41,680 Speaker 1: into a fight. The fight has to be focused on 570 00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:45,360 Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin and and that's the responsibility of our matter 571 00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:48,640 Speaker 1: in chief in these moments of global crises to keep 572 00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:52,480 Speaker 1: the country focused in that direction. And it's one of 573 00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:56,120 Speaker 1: the things that um Biden I do think needs to 574 00:33:56,160 --> 00:33:59,600 Speaker 1: step up his game and reaching out across the aisle 575 00:33:59,800 --> 00:34:03,920 Speaker 1: and trying to build a strong coalition. And look, this 576 00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:08,239 Speaker 1: will ultimately benefit Democrats if he can show that he 577 00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:12,120 Speaker 1: is able to work alongside Republicans when it comes to 578 00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:16,239 Speaker 1: critical threats facing the country. So let's leave some of 579 00:34:17,000 --> 00:34:20,400 Speaker 1: the UK shots back here in Washington. I have to say, 580 00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:23,879 Speaker 1: I'm sorry with a respect. As soon as Vladimir Putin 581 00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:27,480 Speaker 1: invaded Ukraine, Donald Trump called him a genius. So that 582 00:34:27,600 --> 00:34:31,960 Speaker 1: was an egregious, uh statement. But let's separate Trump from 583 00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:34,680 Speaker 1: the party in Washington right now. No, but he spoke 584 00:34:34,719 --> 00:34:37,560 Speaker 1: about Donald Trump in this quote, and so I think 585 00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:39,640 Speaker 1: he was making very clear to the Europeans. He didn't 586 00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:44,959 Speaker 1: he rejected that forcefully. But taken there. But how about 587 00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:48,880 Speaker 1: Brett's point about working with Republicans in Washington on sanctions 588 00:34:48,920 --> 00:34:52,080 Speaker 1: on Ukraine, etcetera. Has he not done enough? Oh? I 589 00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:57,000 Speaker 1: think on Ukraine you're seeing tremendous amount of bipartisan cooperation, 590 00:34:57,400 --> 00:34:59,839 Speaker 1: a lot of engagement from the White House, and they're 591 00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:02,880 Speaker 1: and fight some foreign policy without a doubt, and on 592 00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:06,239 Speaker 1: many issues, including in the Judiciary Committee yesterday, in the 593 00:35:06,280 --> 00:35:10,040 Speaker 1: Supreme Court nominee. But yeah, we've got ninety plus percent 594 00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:12,719 Speaker 1: I think in this country is supporting UH tough action 595 00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:16,160 Speaker 1: against Vladimir Putin. It's a bipartisan issue. There are extremists 596 00:35:16,160 --> 00:35:19,320 Speaker 1: on the Republican side who have been siding with Prudent publicly, 597 00:35:19,920 --> 00:35:22,760 Speaker 1: and they've been isolated and condemned by their own leadership, 598 00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:26,720 Speaker 1: in which is a strong signal to Europe that Americans 599 00:35:26,760 --> 00:35:29,960 Speaker 1: are united and support against Vladimir Putin. Brett, are you 600 00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:33,280 Speaker 1: talking symbolic unity? Are we talking about a more aggressive 601 00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:37,000 Speaker 1: sanctions package? What would to your to use your your 602 00:35:37,080 --> 00:35:40,400 Speaker 1: point working with the other side of the aisle UH 603 00:35:40,680 --> 00:35:43,959 Speaker 1: produced that we don't already have. Yeah, I think. Look, 604 00:35:44,040 --> 00:35:46,879 Speaker 1: as I was saying earlier, we're gonna need to put 605 00:35:46,960 --> 00:35:53,960 Speaker 1: forward a martial plan esk agenda for how Ukraine and 606 00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:57,840 Speaker 1: for that matter, how the rest of of Eastern Europe 607 00:35:58,080 --> 00:36:01,680 Speaker 1: can be strengthened, can be rebuild old after this crisis. 608 00:36:02,000 --> 00:36:04,320 Speaker 1: That work has to start now. We have to start 609 00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:06,759 Speaker 1: looking at what it is going to take and I 610 00:36:06,760 --> 00:36:10,000 Speaker 1: think it's an area in which the President and Republicans 611 00:36:10,080 --> 00:36:13,000 Speaker 1: can work together. We also, as I was saying at 612 00:36:13,040 --> 00:36:16,560 Speaker 1: the outset, need to look at other steps beyond US sanctions, 613 00:36:16,600 --> 00:36:20,759 Speaker 1: beyond just the symbolic gestures that we've taken. We've got 614 00:36:20,760 --> 00:36:24,520 Speaker 1: to rebuild some of that capacity for public diplomacy, for 615 00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:29,799 Speaker 1: ensuring that in these moments of global threat, we have 616 00:36:30,400 --> 00:36:34,799 Speaker 1: the structures in order to push back against disinformation. What 617 00:36:34,880 --> 00:36:37,640 Speaker 1: a great panel. I love talking to you guys, Joel 618 00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:40,360 Speaker 1: Reuben Brett Bruin. This needs to happen again our foreign 619 00:36:40,400 --> 00:36:42,839 Speaker 1: policy panel. Thanks to both of you for being here. 620 00:36:42,920 --> 00:36:47,160 Speaker 1: Joel's former deputy Assistant Secretary of State Obama and Bush administrations. 621 00:36:47,680 --> 00:36:50,200 Speaker 1: Brett had experience in the Obama White House as director 622 00:36:50,239 --> 00:36:55,879 Speaker 1: of Global Engagement IS Presidents and of the I should say, 623 00:36:55,920 --> 00:37:00,680 Speaker 1: Global Situation Room. Great talk. You don't hear versations like 624 00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:03,320 Speaker 1: these anywhere else. That's why you're here on the fastest 625 00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:05,759 Speaker 1: hour in politics. And before it's over, I want to 626 00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:08,640 Speaker 1: hear from Nita. March is Women's History Month, and we've 627 00:37:08,640 --> 00:37:11,479 Speaker 1: been doing this every day, significant moments in women's history. 628 00:37:11,560 --> 00:37:14,880 Speaker 1: Let's turn now to our installment for Thursday March with 629 00:37:15,040 --> 00:37:19,360 Speaker 1: n Young. On this day in Women's History, in Shannon 630 00:37:19,440 --> 00:37:23,280 Speaker 1: Lucid becomes the first female US astronaut to live aboard 631 00:37:23,320 --> 00:37:26,720 Speaker 1: a space station. She entered the Russian Space station Mirror 632 00:37:26,800 --> 00:37:30,120 Speaker 1: from the U S Space Shuttle Atlantis, and while on 633 00:37:30,200 --> 00:37:33,560 Speaker 1: board the Mirror, Lucid helped complete several physical science and 634 00:37:33,719 --> 00:37:37,280 Speaker 1: life science experiments. She returned to Earth on September twenty 635 00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:40,800 Speaker 1: six of that year after completing her fifth mission. Lucid 636 00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:44,080 Speaker 1: had logged more than two hundred twenty three days in space. 637 00:37:44,640 --> 00:37:47,799 Speaker 1: She received her Bachelor of Science degree in chemistry from 638 00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:50,880 Speaker 1: the University of Oklahoma. Then she earned a Masters of 639 00:37:50,880 --> 00:37:54,799 Speaker 1: Science and Doctor of Philosophy in biochemistry. That's today in 640 00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:58,719 Speaker 1: Women's History. I'm Rinda Young, Bloomberg Radio. Alright, Ra, need 641 00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:01,000 Speaker 1: to thank you. I hope you'll need us back here tomorrow. 642 00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:04,440 Speaker 1: We'll have markets for you coming up. We'll check traffic 643 00:38:04,560 --> 00:38:07,360 Speaker 1: as well. Thanks to everyone for coming into sound on today. 644 00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:11,720 Speaker 1: Angela Stent. Of course, our panel with Joel and Brett 645 00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:16,480 Speaker 1: and Congressman Andy liven eleven of Michigan brig Conversations all 646 00:38:16,520 --> 00:38:18,759 Speaker 1: the way around on another historic day. It will be 647 00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:22,319 Speaker 1: tomorrow as well as the President heads for Poland. We'll 648 00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:27,000 Speaker 1: have a report from a refugee camp near the border 649 00:38:27,200 --> 00:38:30,000 Speaker 1: of Ukraine. Only here on sound on I'll see you that. 650 00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:32,080 Speaker 1: I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg