Speaker 1: Hello, everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy pros Football Podcast. My
Speaker 1: name is Ryan Warmley. I'm joined today by Andrew ericsona
Speaker 1: by Chris welsh Fellas. We are extending our Predictions show
Speaker 1: into the NFL playoffs. It is Wildcard weekend? Is it
Speaker 1: still super Wildcard Weekend? I feel like I haven't seen
Speaker 1: them say super and I know it used to be.
Speaker 1: I actually don't remember. We're calling it Wildcard Weekend. We've
Speaker 1: got a really fun slatest six games here. Ericson, how
Speaker 1: do you feel now that the season regular season is
Speaker 1: officially behind us?
Speaker 2: I feel like my brain is functioning at a normal
Speaker 2: capacity now, which I very much enjoy where I can
Speaker 2: kind of just stop working at night and let my
Speaker 2: brain kind of reset as opposed to doing the twelve
Speaker 2: thousand other things I have to do in season. So
Speaker 2: I feel like I'm thinking more clearly. So hopefully, hopefully
Speaker 2: with less games to kind of parse through, I will
Speaker 2: have better predictions because, as we'll get into, not been
Speaker 2: my show so far this year, it's been tough with
Speaker 2: the prediction streets, So we're going to get better with
Speaker 2: only six games to break down.
Speaker 1: I feel like you actually were really accurate when we
Speaker 1: did this show last year. So I'm not sure what's
Speaker 1: happened this year where you've really fallen off a cliff.
Speaker 3: I ruined you, I ruined Erickson.
Speaker 1: Welsh's gotten, He's not gotten his stake on you. He
Speaker 1: stole it. He's taken you know, the like the monstar
Speaker 1: is stealing your talent because Welsh has been kind of
Speaker 1: on fire. Welsh, how you feeling, buddy? Now that we're
Speaker 1: past Week eighteen and into the playoffs.
Speaker 3: Oh, I don't have to watch the Niners anymore. I
Speaker 3: don't have to like pretend, I don't have to do
Speaker 3: any of that. I don't have to experience a week
Speaker 3: eighteen again, boof Week eighteen really ridiculous to try to
Speaker 3: consume just you have to re ask yourself sometimes, why
Speaker 3: do you bet on Week eighteen? Why do you consume
Speaker 3: all of it? Thank God, we're going to go into
Speaker 3: the playoffs and hopefully this super duper exciting wild card
Speaker 3: weekend is going to have some big playoffs, the ors,
Speaker 3: some good games. Though, you know, part of the narrative
Speaker 3: we talked about earlier in the week too was a
Speaker 3: little bit of chalk. There's kind of some like you look,
Speaker 3: and it's like it's hard to envision a handful of
Speaker 3: games that are going to have these big setups or upsets,
Speaker 3: but you know, we'll see how it goes.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm really excited to break down the slate. Honestly
Speaker 1: this weekend and next weekend. I'm not the first person
Speaker 1: to say this, but just like our two of the
Speaker 1: best weekends of of football in sports of the entire calendar,
Speaker 1: where you get, you know, Saturday Sunday pretty much all
Speaker 1: day watching playoff games. Erickson, you did better in week
Speaker 1: eighteen than you had the last couple of weeks. Now,
Speaker 1: that was an extraordinarily low bar to clear. You were
Speaker 1: wrong about the Steelers in Jalen Warren. You were wrong
Speaker 1: about Tony Pollard. He did get twenty two rushes, but
Speaker 1: he didn't get his needed eighty three yards. He did
Speaker 1: not get any of the two touchdowns. Not only did
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz not throw a touchdown pass to DeAndre Hopkins,
Speaker 1: he didn't throw a touchdown passes to anybody. It was
Speaker 1: a thirty eight to nothing lost to Denver. However, you
Speaker 1: were right about the Jags mostly, you know, spiritually correct,
Speaker 1: and also of course you were correct about Brian Thomas
Speaker 1: Junior in that game, officially getting the leading all rookies
Speaker 1: and receiving this season, So that was a big hit
Speaker 1: by you, and of course the big one you were
Speaker 1: spot on about Geno Smith and the Seahaw. Those incentives
Speaker 1: played off really well for you Welsh You had Michael
Speaker 1: Pennix did get his two touchdown day, but all was
Speaker 1: passing did go to Drake London instead of Kyle Pitts.
Speaker 1: So thankfully almost Pitt's finished the season with another whimper,
Speaker 1: we don't have to be tricked into going for him
Speaker 1: next year. JK. Dobbins did not get one hundred yards,
Speaker 1: but he did get sixty three against the Raiders for
Speaker 1: the incentives there. Brock Bauers got nine targets but only
Speaker 1: came down with four passes, not the big day we
Speaker 1: expected from Jameson Williams. And finally, Mike Evans did not
Speaker 1: get his hundred yards, but of course he did get
Speaker 1: his thousand yard season, which was really one of the
Speaker 1: highlights of the day seeing the whole sideline celebrate and
Speaker 1: like I'm not even I'm not here for the people
Speaker 1: who are like the defense was soft, they were kind
Speaker 1: of letting him have it like it was cool to
Speaker 1: see the dudes of Hall of Famer. He missed a
Speaker 1: bunch of games this year. The game was already over.
Speaker 1: It's not like they took a loss to give it
Speaker 1: to him, and like they didn't like guide him down
Speaker 1: the field. It was maybe a little softer covered us.
Speaker 2: He said after the game that they tried to double
Speaker 2: covered Mikevinton.
Speaker 1: Yeah, like I don't.
Speaker 3: I don't think it was a.
Speaker 2: Where the ball was going.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you shouldn't have been able to tell. Can I
Speaker 3: see you guys real quick? I got massive pushback on
Speaker 3: this on Ad of Bounds this week from Bogman and
Speaker 3: Piece of PA. But I think, like, if you guys,
Speaker 3: if you watch the game, Mike Evans was just let's
Speaker 3: just say a better word. He's pouting and I get it,
Speaker 3: like it's three million dollars. It was the drive before.
Speaker 3: I think they just scored the top. He was sitting
Speaker 3: on the bench just like staring off into the abyss.
Speaker 3: No excitement, no nothing, know anything. Then they get the
Speaker 3: ball back, he goes back in. He's cold. Kids, the catch,
Speaker 3: he's super excited. He just leaves and I was like, Okay,
Speaker 3: what's going on?
Speaker 1: Here.
Speaker 3: But my take was they were gonna pay like they
Speaker 3: were gonna pay him like. I don't know if they
Speaker 3: would have paid him the full three million dollars. I
Speaker 3: can't imagine if he came up five yards short that
Speaker 3: that organization was not going to take care of him
Speaker 3: in some capacity because and this is to do with
Speaker 3: his level of kind of poutiness, they completely he disagreed.
Speaker 3: I think you might hurt the relationship a little bit
Speaker 3: with this guy who would be like the face of
Speaker 3: the organization moving forward Hall of Famer if five yards
Speaker 3: short they didn't pay him out in some capacity. Do
Speaker 3: you guys think I'm way off on that? Was?
Speaker 2: He pouted me because he wasn't gonna so he was
Speaker 2: five yards short.
Speaker 3: He was sitting. It's not about the pouting. He was
Speaker 3: absolutely like desponded, sitting on the bench going five yards short.
Speaker 3: My thing was, you should be excited, you should keep going.
Speaker 3: You guys would making the playoffs. You did great, And
Speaker 3: do we really think that they would have just been like, oh,
Speaker 3: better luck next time, buddy, like you fell five yards short.
Speaker 1: Totally depends on the owner. I don't know enough about
Speaker 1: Tampa's ownership team and family to know if they're the
Speaker 1: type that would tried nickel and time him. But like
Speaker 1: you would think any reasonably competent owner would recognize, like
Speaker 1: this dude is a Hall of Famer, maybe a first
Speaker 1: ballot Hall of Famer. He spent his entire career here
Speaker 1: and fell short, you know, from this legendary street, Like, yeah,
Speaker 1: I would I would like to think they would have
Speaker 1: paid him.
Speaker 2: Wait, but Evan's already hit his receptions inte.
Speaker 3: He needed all three of them to lock in the
Speaker 3: five million. He needed all There wasn't one individual, it
Speaker 3: was all a collective. He needed the catches, the touchdowns,
Speaker 3: and the yards to collect the three million dollars. So
Speaker 3: he was sitting on the bench five yards short of
Speaker 3: three million dollars because he didn't have those yards, and
Speaker 3: they had just scored that touchdown, and he was just
Speaker 3: kind of sitting there away from his teammates, staring off
Speaker 3: into the abyss and I get it, it's three million
Speaker 3: dollars and stuff like that, but it was so disconnected
Speaker 3: from the team. And then just for me, he gets it.
Speaker 3: He celebrated and he just leaps and he just walks
Speaker 3: off the field, and it was I was like what's
Speaker 3: going on here? And then you know, top it off
Speaker 3: at the end, he's like, I'm gonna go to the
Speaker 3: casino and I was like, all right, I'm like disliking
Speaker 3: Mike Evans. I was like, rooting for him was the
Speaker 3: coolest moment ever. But I'm like, I don't like any
Speaker 3: of this, but I just couldn't get over the poudiness
Speaker 3: and like, dude, they're gonna like they gotta take care
Speaker 3: of you, I guess. And to your point, there are
Speaker 3: nickel and dime ownerships that would have just laughed in
Speaker 3: their face and not paid it off. And you know,
Speaker 3: there are teams that bench players and stuff like. I
Speaker 3: just don't think you would have done that for the
Speaker 3: face of the Buccaneers. He's the number one face of
Speaker 3: that organization and it'll be for a long time moving forward.
Speaker 3: If it meant that much, then I can't imagine they
Speaker 3: would have not paid him out. So I just it
Speaker 3: was more about, like, why are you pouting so much?
Speaker 3: I understand the money, but you should get taken care of.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I tend to agree with that. Let's jump into
Speaker 1: the wildcard slate and see if we can get our
Speaker 1: own streaks going here again. We're gonna start with that.
Speaker 1: We're just gonna go kind of chronologically here, so we're
Speaker 1: gonna start with Chargers Texans. This is the four or
Speaker 1: five game in the AFC Texans in their annual time
Speaker 1: slot of three point thirty local Saturday. Every single playoff
Speaker 1: game they've been in the last yeah, I think it's
Speaker 1: twelve years or whatever it is, has been in the
Speaker 1: same time slot. So this is definitely the Texans Invitational.
Speaker 1: Ericson what is your big prediction for Chargers Texans.
Speaker 2: The Chargers are gonna win because the Texans are fraudulent
Speaker 2: and this is where they always lose Saturday Wildcard weekend
Speaker 2: in the late afternoon slate. I just have memories of
Speaker 2: being kind of like it's dark outside, the texts are
Speaker 2: on in the background. I look up, They're getting killed,
Speaker 2: and that's basically what's going to happen here in this matchup.
Speaker 2: I just think that all year along, the Texans have
Speaker 2: been one of the most overrated teams, and we've seen
Speaker 2: it from the lack of offensive efficiency. They're one of
Speaker 2: the worst teams in the NFL overall in overall success rate,
Speaker 2: like next to the Cleveland Browns, who have played four
Speaker 2: different quarterbacks all year long, so I think this is
Speaker 2: more of the same. And again, if this was the
Speaker 2: Chargers of old, the nong Harbaugh Chargers, this would be
Speaker 2: a really easy game to be Oh, well, this is
Speaker 2: where the Texans they get a win, right, But it's not.
Speaker 2: It's the Harbor Chargers. We've seen this team over this
Speaker 2: past season really take what Harball brought to the table
Speaker 2: and run with it and be pretty successful in his
Speaker 2: first year, make the postseason and his first year as
Speaker 2: the head coach. So I think the quarterback advantage is
Speaker 2: with the Chargers. I think that the coaching advantage is
Speaker 2: with the Chargers. So yeah, they're playing on the road,
Speaker 2: but the Chargers play on the road every single week
Speaker 2: because they played Sofi Stadium, which is essentially a road game.
Speaker 2: So I like them to win this game. And I
Speaker 2: think that Joe Mixon is going to kind of continue
Speaker 2: his late season struggles. We're starting some of these venter
Speaker 2: running back kind of run out of gas at the
Speaker 2: end of the season. He's rushed for under seventy rushing
Speaker 2: yards in five of his last seven games. He's actually
Speaker 2: played a full lot in a snap, so it's not
Speaker 2: even counting last week where he barely played, so his
Speaker 2: prop is around seventy two and a half rushing yards.
Speaker 2: This week, I think he's gonna finish under seventy two
Speaker 2: and a half rushing yards. And there's a chance that
Speaker 2: after Damian Pierce popped off last week, maybe they hey, like,
Speaker 2: let's go with this two man backfield that they kept
Speaker 2: talking up the entire offseason. But like, yeah, we're gonna
Speaker 2: have a two headed monster, but Damian Piers and Joe Mixon,
Speaker 2: which they never did, so who knows. With Joe Mixic
Speaker 2: kind of slowing down, maybe Pierce gets a little bit
Speaker 2: more involved. So just kind of fading the Texans as
Speaker 2: we've done most of the season and going with the
Speaker 2: Chargers here.
Speaker 3: I like what you said too. By the way of
Speaker 3: it's like in baseball where they're like, well, the new
Speaker 3: year hasn't started until pitchers and catchers report. It's like
Speaker 3: the playoffs haven't really started until the Texans are getting
Speaker 3: blown out on a Saturday afternoon game. At least on
Speaker 3: the West Coast.
Speaker 1: This is the second smallest spread of the of the slate.
Speaker 1: It's a minus two and a half for the Chargers
Speaker 1: as road favorites and well, she looks like with your prediction,
Speaker 1: you've got the Chargers winning too.
Speaker 3: Yeah. I like the charge this, I mean a lot of.
Speaker 3: I mean, Erickson broke that down great, as he always does,
Speaker 3: but like I would just simplify it to just be
Speaker 3: like CJ. Stroud has been fraudulent this year. It's not
Speaker 3: if this is the CJ Stroud that we saw last year,
Speaker 3: the CJ Stroud that we saw in the off season
Speaker 3: that would sit with Micah Parsons and break down every player.
Speaker 3: Looks like I want to listen to c J. Stroud
Speaker 3: talk and break down football all the time. I don't
Speaker 3: want to watch him play football right now. That's the problem.
Speaker 3: He does not look like that CJ Stroud that we
Speaker 3: had all build up for. So it puts it in
Speaker 3: a really tough situation where it's like, you know, I
Speaker 3: don't care if at home road, it doesn't really matter
Speaker 3: to me. Like he has not been shocked, Like you're
Speaker 3: betting his overs on interceptions every single game and you're
Speaker 3: cashing it. The weapons haven't been there, I mean obviously,
Speaker 3: like they're a little bit more healthy. You've got mixing going,
Speaker 3: You've got Nico getting to go a little bit but
Speaker 3: I think the Chargers are just too tough of a
Speaker 3: team right now, and as they are getting healthy, getting JK.
Speaker 3: Dobbins back the other big thing. And this is so
Speaker 3: obviously like my game prediction is Colts are going to win.
Speaker 3: They're going to cover that two and a half on
Speaker 3: the spread, So we can put that as my prediction
Speaker 3: is they'll cover the spread, but my in game prediction
Speaker 3: is going to be around Lad McConkey. So if you're
Speaker 3: taking a mix and under, I love my overs, and
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with Lad McConkey over his receiving yard
Speaker 3: prop which was early set at seventy two and a half.
Speaker 3: He's currently set up against the Texans with the second
Speaker 3: best wide receiver quarterback matchup of the weekend according to PFF.
Speaker 3: So you love that he's hit this yards prop at
Speaker 3: seventy two and a half and six of his last
Speaker 3: seven games and he has had six or more receptions
Speaker 3: in five of his last seven games, while, by the way,
Speaker 3: from a target perspective, eighteen targets over his last two games.
Speaker 3: So I mean he has gone on into overdrive as
Speaker 3: far as being the guy for this team. And this
Speaker 3: is how they're gonna win. They're going to be getting
Speaker 3: the ball to Lad all day. So I love Lad
Speaker 3: having a great, big day. As far as my predictions go,
Speaker 3: hitting that receiving yard prop and the Chargers covering.
Speaker 1: I know, typically the format of the show is that
Speaker 1: I host and you guys give the predictions. I want
Speaker 1: to throw a prediction out here and see what you
Speaker 1: guys think of it. It's maybe a little not maybe
Speaker 1: it is bolder. I'm going to predict that despite this
Speaker 1: being the second smallest spread of the week, this will
Speaker 1: be the biggest blowout of Wildcard Weekend. Will be the
Speaker 1: Chargers beating the Texans. I think this is the biggest disparity.
Speaker 1: I don't kind of trust some of the other very
Speaker 1: large lines that we're gonna get to some of these
Speaker 1: other games, particularly in the AFC. I think the biggest
Speaker 1: blowout of the weekend is Chargers over Texans.
Speaker 3: I think this is one of two games in play
Speaker 3: for that I like, like a variant of this would
Speaker 3: be the biggest discrepancy between what the spread is and
Speaker 3: what the total line finishes at. I think that definitely
Speaker 3: could have the biggest widest variance. But yeah, I think
Speaker 3: this is like one of two games where that's in play.
Speaker 3: I mean, like when the Texans are on, like we
Speaker 3: know what they can be. Nico can absolutely go off
Speaker 3: when him and Stroud have that connection. But Stroud has
Speaker 3: just consistently been on off on all and it's just
Speaker 3: like there isn't like three quarters that are even stitched
Speaker 3: together that look phenomenal like that Stroud of old. So yeah,
Speaker 3: I think this could go in a really bad direction.
Speaker 2: Know what I want to mention when it comes to
Speaker 2: this Chargers Texans dynamic. And this is something that kind
Speaker 2: of went under the radar during the offseason. We all
Speaker 2: know that the Texans retained Bobby Slowick as the offensive coordinator,
Speaker 2: but one of the key guys that they lost who
Speaker 2: was a senior offensive assistant quarterbacks coach for the Chargers
Speaker 2: now Shane Day. So he actually played a lot. He
Speaker 2: got a lot of credit last year about CJ. Stroud's
Speaker 2: rookie year emergence, and he'd worked previously with the Chargers
Speaker 2: with Justin Herbert and when the Chargers brought him back
Speaker 2: from Houston, Justin Herbert was really pumped up. So just
Speaker 2: another element of something to pay attention during the offseason
Speaker 2: where it's not always the offensive coordinators moving from team
Speaker 2: to team, but like these quarterback coaches and who was
Speaker 2: like working day to day with these quarterbacks. So I
Speaker 2: was going back in some of my old articles from
Speaker 2: the Quarterbacks to Avoid, and I talked about Stroud and
Speaker 2: that was one of the things I mentioned where Hey,
Speaker 2: he lost Shane Day, and Shane Day had a lot
Speaker 2: of success with him his rookie year. He had a
Speaker 2: lot of success with Herbert. And that's kind of why
Speaker 2: we see these two teams, these two quarterbacks kind of
Speaker 2: go in different directions, whereas justin Herbert bounced back after
Speaker 2: a tough year last season, and obviously we've seen CJ.
Speaker 2: Stroud regress. So I think we're gonna come and just
Speaker 2: see more of the same here in this matchup.
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Speaker 1: let's get to Steelers Ravens. This line is like one
Speaker 1: I just frankly do not understand. It's nine and a half.
Speaker 1: The Ravens are laying nine and a half, and this
Speaker 1: is the I believe it's the largest spread in the
Speaker 1: history of this rivalry. I can not ever remember seeing
Speaker 1: like a double digit spread or even close to it
Speaker 1: in this arrival. Even when when this spread is like seven,
Speaker 1: I think that's too high for any Steelers Ravens game.
Speaker 1: And here it is in the playoffs, it's nine and
Speaker 1: a half. Ericson, what is your prediction.
Speaker 2: Well, this isn't a prediction, because this is gonna happen.
Speaker 2: Steelers are gonna covers. That's luck of the week. Steelers
Speaker 2: are gonna cover this nine and a half spread. Because
Speaker 2: I agree with you, I think that it's absolutely.
Speaker 1: It's hard for me to not recommend people bet like
Speaker 1: they're a whole mortgage on this. Like I do not
Speaker 1: understand this line.
Speaker 2: I mean, look, when we all look up at the
Speaker 2: score at the end of the game, we'll find out
Speaker 2: that's probably gonna be a lot. It's gonna be pretty
Speaker 2: spot on, is what we'll find out. But one team
Speaker 2: eventually has to cover because especially if it closes at
Speaker 2: nine and a half, there's no push when it comes
Speaker 2: to nine and a half points. But I like the
Speaker 2: Steeler sidea but ultimately I do think that the Ravens
Speaker 2: pull out the victory, even if it's not by nine
Speaker 2: and a half points. And I do think the Steelers
Speaker 2: throw a little bit more at Lamar Jackson. I think
Speaker 2: he's gonna finish under two hundred and twenty passing yards.
Speaker 2: Looking at this matchup, have seen it twice this season,
Speaker 2: which goes back to why I just think this line
Speaker 2: is absolutely bonkers because it was Ravens minus seven like
Speaker 2: three weeks ago, and now it's nine and a half.
Speaker 2: Despite the fact that Steelers have playing with six or
Speaker 2: seven guys that didn't even play in that game. Thickens
Speaker 2: is back Joey Porter Junior is back, a lot of
Speaker 2: defensive backs and defensive tackles are playing for the Steelers,
Speaker 2: and you know who the Ravens don't have. Their number
Speaker 2: one Pro Bowl wide receiver is A Flowers. He's not
Speaker 2: going to play in this game. So again, don't need
Speaker 2: to go more in depth about the spread and what
Speaker 2: it is, but Lamar I think he's going to struggle
Speaker 2: a little bit here as a passer, as traditionally has
Speaker 2: been the case, with him facing the Pittsburgh Steelers defense
Speaker 2: both games this year, exactly two hundred and seven passing yards.
Speaker 2: His prop is at two hundred and twenty and a
Speaker 2: half passing yards. So I'm gonna take the under. He's
Speaker 2: been under that three straight games, five of his last
Speaker 2: seven contests. And when the Ravens beat the Steelers the
Speaker 2: last time they played, who was the big playmaker was
Speaker 2: not Bateman, it was not Andrews, it was A Flowers,
Speaker 2: who is not going to play in this game. So
Speaker 2: I'm going under on Lamar Jackson passing yards.
Speaker 1: I actually like under on his passing prop even more
Speaker 1: than I like this Steelers plus the points like that.
Speaker 1: That is another line that makes no sense to me.
Speaker 1: The Steelers blitzed the Ravens at twice the rate they
Speaker 1: blitzed anybody else this season in those two matchups, and Lamar,
Speaker 1: when he's blitzed like Zay Flowers, is the outlet and
Speaker 1: he's it's not one hundred percent official that he's not playing,
Speaker 1: but it looks extremely likely that he's not going to play,
Speaker 1: at least for this week. I do not if the
Speaker 1: Ravens win by ten or more points, it will be
Speaker 1: because Derek Henry, you know, blew up. It won't be
Speaker 1: because Lamar threw for two hundred and fifty passing yards.
Speaker 1: So I I could not agree with you more ericson.
Speaker 1: I do not get this line at all. Obviously, I
Speaker 1: hope it's right. As a Ravens fan, that would be delightful,
Speaker 1: but I am certainly expecting a lower scoring game than
Speaker 1: the total wood tjest. I'm certainly expecting fewer passing yards. Well, Shaw,
Speaker 1: do you see this one?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 3: And I believe also to throw this in. I believe
Speaker 3: four Lamar Jackson interceptions. Half of those came from the
Speaker 3: Steelers this year, So just to throw that out as well.
Speaker 3: That doesn't throw a lot of receptions, but sure has
Speaker 3: against the Pittsburgh Steelers. So yeah, I completely agree with
Speaker 3: this kind of across the board Ravens win. I think
Speaker 3: this is way too big of a spread. The obviously
Speaker 3: the Ravens are going to want to keep this on
Speaker 3: the ground is as much as they possibly can. You
Speaker 3: talk about the outlet, I think that opens up. I
Speaker 3: guess I've kind of been like an Isaiah Likely guy
Speaker 3: some this year. We've done it on the Prop show.
Speaker 3: You might get more of that, but I think they're
Speaker 3: going to struggle with a lot more deep ball stuff.
Speaker 3: But with them holding a lead and especially in time
Speaker 3: clock management, I think what that's going to lead to
Speaker 3: is obviously the Steelers being able to cover, is they're
Speaker 3: going to get back to what they have done early
Speaker 3: on the year and they've really lacked success as of
Speaker 3: recent It's just slanging the ball, just Russ getting back
Speaker 3: and slaying it. And that comes to my prop of
Speaker 3: getting George Pickens back involved in this game. And we're
Speaker 3: going to go with this longest reception. So this is
Speaker 3: a very betty you know, like in the betting show
Speaker 3: that we would talk about, but you want to hit
Speaker 3: this is George Pickens twenty three point five longest reception
Speaker 3: on the year. Prior to the last game where he
Speaker 3: just got shut out, he had hit this in eight
Speaker 3: straight games. He has had a already actually thirty yard
Speaker 3: reception or bigger in eight straight games prior to this.
Speaker 3: Eleven of fourteen games this season, he has also just
Speaker 3: hit that marker. He had twelve targets versus the Ravens
Speaker 3: in his last outing and had a thirty seven yeard reception.
Speaker 3: So I think the Steelers are going to be playing
Speaker 3: from behind in a lot of this, and I think
Speaker 3: that is going to obviously get them throwing the ball deep.
Speaker 3: They've got to get picked I mean, I know they
Speaker 3: can keep doing this game where it's like, oh the
Speaker 3: pickens is you know, he's having this awful game, or
Speaker 3: they're just moving to other targets. I think the Ravens
Speaker 3: are going to do a good job of shutting down
Speaker 3: Pat Fryermouth, who was the outlet passer, and you can
Speaker 3: throw a bit against the Baltimore Ravens. So I think
Speaker 3: they're going to do that. You're going to get pickings
Speaker 3: back involved. So from a prediction standpoint, it's very betty prediction.
Speaker 3: He's going to go over he's going to have a
Speaker 3: big reception in this game. To what capacity ends up
Speaker 3: being doesn't matter because we just want twenty three point
Speaker 3: five over. So that's my big George Pickens play Ravens win,
Speaker 3: Steelers cover pretty chock.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like the under on forty three and a half.
Speaker 1: So I will say I do like a lot of
Speaker 1: of Derrick Henry's props. I like over on ninety nine
Speaker 1: and a half rushing yards. I like over on five
Speaker 1: and a half receiving yards for Dereck Henry actually a lot.
Speaker 1: I also I really like plus four hundred on the
Speaker 1: last player to score a touchdown for Derrick Henry. So
Speaker 1: I like a lot of the props on him. Yeah.
Speaker 1: The thing is, like I have fought back really hard
Speaker 1: against the like Lamar playoff narrative because I think it's
Speaker 1: like entirely without contexts. He has four losses and three
Speaker 1: of them came like four, five and six years ago
Speaker 1: in like just very different circumstances than he's in now.
Speaker 1: So like, I think the playoff stuff with Lamar is
Speaker 1: really overblown and like not, I think it's a mischaracterization
Speaker 1: of him. I don't think that's through the Steelers' problems.
Speaker 1: I think those are very legitimate, and the Steelers, like
Speaker 1: just specifically, do play him well and like I will
Speaker 1: not be surprised if he struggles in this game. Statistically speaking,
Speaker 1: I do think they will win ultimately. But as I've
Speaker 1: said a bunch, I don't get this line really at all.
Speaker 1: So we'll see, how do you think it should be?
Speaker 3: What do you think it should be?
Speaker 2: Then it should be what it was last time? It
Speaker 2: was minus seven.
Speaker 3: That's exactly what about I said. I was gonna say
Speaker 3: six point five.
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's no difference between the Steelers are putting out
Speaker 2: a better roster than they did in that game and
Speaker 2: the Ravens are putting out a worst roster.
Speaker 1: The other thing, too, is like in that game, people go, oh, well,
Speaker 1: the Ravens blew them out. That was a one score
Speaker 1: game with the Steelers having the ball before the pick
Speaker 1: six from Marlin Humphrey. Like that is what turned the
Speaker 1: game and made it look like a blowout. It was
Speaker 1: not a blowout in that like the way, Oh, the
Speaker 1: Ravens also recovered a bunch of fumbles in that game too,
Speaker 1: that helped, Like.
Speaker 2: And they also fumbled the ball three times they didn't Yeah,
Speaker 2: they Yeah, they didn't. They didn't turn over the ball.
Speaker 2: And when again I wrote this all down for the
Speaker 2: betting problem, looking right at it right now. So the
Speaker 2: game was tied seventeen, all five minutes left remaining in
Speaker 2: the third quarter, and Chris Balls well after the Steelers
Speaker 2: score touchdown, kicked the ball out of bounds and the
Speaker 2: Ravens got a short field scored touchdown pick six, good night,
Speaker 2: And then that was the end.
Speaker 3: This is six point five are you betting on the Ravens?
Speaker 3: If this is minus six six and a half? Are
Speaker 3: you going Ravens and you take?
Speaker 1: I think and a half is the right line that
Speaker 1: I think that When you said that, I was like
Speaker 1: that that is the correct line in my mind because
Speaker 1: that is the which I don't know what direction I
Speaker 1: would go. I would probably take the Steelers, honestly, just
Speaker 1: like I think it's smart it's historically looking at this
Speaker 1: rivalry to just blindly if a team is getting over
Speaker 1: four and a half points, just take the underdog in
Speaker 1: this rivalry like they're almost always going to cover. And again,
Speaker 1: I think people are overreacting to the last game. To
Speaker 1: Erickson's point, this is a healthier Steelers team than they
Speaker 1: were in that game, and the Ravens are more depleted,
Speaker 1: they don't Not having save Flowers is a huge deal.
Speaker 1: And again, I still think the Ravens will win again.
Speaker 1: I would love nothing more than to be wrong and
Speaker 1: to see them blow out their bitter rival. But I
Speaker 1: just it's really hard for me to play out the
Speaker 1: scenario where that actually happens.
Speaker 2: Well, considering my prediction is that the Ravens are going
Speaker 2: to win, I mean, well, we be on this show.
Speaker 1: Yeah, what the hell, Eric sat We're talking about NFL playoffs?
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Speaker 2: Slash bball Guys, what would you set the under over
Speaker 2: at the amount of times are going to play the
Speaker 2: Love Hurt song during that time game?
Speaker 1: It's six and a half.
Speaker 3: It's a good line. It's a pretty good line. That's
Speaker 3: like maybe to go the over, Uh, let's.
Speaker 1: Go to Brodcos Bills. This is another one. This one,
Speaker 1: I'm more understanding of what the line is like just
Speaker 1: given kind of where these teams are at and there's
Speaker 1: less of a history here there with Ravens Steelers. Having
Speaker 1: said that, like the Broncos, I do think are playing well,
Speaker 1: even though it was came against the backups in week eighteen,
Speaker 1: So I do think this numbers a little heights eight
Speaker 1: and a half for in favor of the Bills. Ericson
Speaker 1: what's your prediction on this one.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was kind of surprise too that it's this big,
Speaker 2: but I think it's just the market love for the
Speaker 2: Buffalo Bills and they are looking at his Hey, it's
Speaker 2: still a rookie quarterback making his first playoff start on
Speaker 2: the road in a hostile environment. So I think that's
Speaker 2: kind of reason why you're not getting as much love
Speaker 2: on the Denver side. And that's kind of the game
Speaker 2: script I'm projecting here. I'm projecting the Buffalo Bills to
Speaker 2: be playing here with a strong lead, and that leads
Speaker 2: me to taking the under on I know he's a
Speaker 2: favorite of us Worm and actually Welsh as well. Welsh
Speaker 2: was the guy that was first pounding Younger. The first
Speaker 2: under Welsh ever took was on object Estima, which he
Speaker 2: was right, and I'm going to trace the I'm going
Speaker 2: to follow him here. Aldric Estime is going to fish
Speaker 2: with under six and a half carries against the Buffalo Bills.
Speaker 2: So last week Estima had like the perfect game script.
Speaker 2: They're blowing out the backup teams. He had twelve carries
Speaker 2: for thirty four yards, scored a touchdown, but still operating
Speaker 2: behind Julia McLoughlin as the number one running back when
Speaker 2: it comes to working on early downs, and then Javonte
Speaker 2: Williams is kind of the running back that's sprinklinging on
Speaker 2: third downs in passing situations. So in this game with
Speaker 2: their massive underdogs, I expect Jvonte Williams potentially lead the
Speaker 2: team in snaps because he can't think he's gonna running
Speaker 2: the most routes out of the backfield. And with estimate
Speaker 2: what his usage was in Week eighteen. He saw six
Speaker 2: of his twelve carries in the Broncos final drive in
Speaker 2: the fourth quarter, when the game was already well out
Speaker 2: of reach. I mean the Chiefs had their four stringers
Speaker 2: in at that point. During the first three quarters of
Speaker 2: the game, McLoughlin had fourteen carries, Estima had two. He
Speaker 2: had two carries in the first three quarters of the
Speaker 2: game where they were blowing out the team the entire time,
Speaker 2: so he didn't get until straight up garbage time. So
Speaker 2: six and a half carries in a game where I
Speaker 2: don't expect them to be playing with the lead at
Speaker 2: any point potentially, That's how I feel really confident about
Speaker 2: the usage here. So you know, projecting this Broncos backfield
Speaker 2: has always been really tough, so I'm going to the
Speaker 2: one time it's worked out has been hitting on the under,
Speaker 2: where Welsh was just so spot on with it and
Speaker 2: which went against everything in his being to take an under,
Speaker 2: but he did so accurately, So that stays in my
Speaker 2: mind and that's why I'm going here with this. So
Speaker 2: I'm going to take the under here because again before
Speaker 2: the fourth quarter of last week's game, he was sitting
Speaker 2: on two carries for four yards, So against the Bills,
Speaker 2: that's going to be no bueno. So under six and
Speaker 2: a half carries for estimate.
Speaker 1: What do you think about this one?
Speaker 3: Welsh? Yeah, I mean, first off, I kind of like
Speaker 3: that one as well. It's a low, scary number, but
Speaker 3: I like that on estimate. I think this is going
Speaker 3: to be one of the blowout situations, Like I think
Speaker 3: the Bills are going to blow out the Broncos in
Speaker 3: this situation. And coming back to what you're talking about
Speaker 3: with estimate, I think that's part of the problem. And
Speaker 3: first off, just the Bill's offense, the Bills offense in general,
Speaker 3: James Cook, you're running back touchdown later, Josh Allen. This
Speaker 3: bevy of wide receivers. It's funny because it's like the
Speaker 3: Broncos do a version of what the Bills do. The
Speaker 3: Bills just slang into a bunch of different receivers. They
Speaker 3: just do it really well. The Broncos are okay with it.
Speaker 3: I think everything is going to click on the Broncos
Speaker 3: side or the Bill side. The Broncos they don't have
Speaker 3: a running game, and I think that is going to
Speaker 3: hurt them. Obviously, the rookie quarterback situation is going to
Speaker 3: be in play here. I think the Bills are going
Speaker 3: to blow the Broncos out in this situation. So that
Speaker 3: is my game script here where if I had to
Speaker 3: bet on one game where it's going to go in
Speaker 3: this direction, this is going to be the game. Because
Speaker 3: if Josh Allen can't sling the ball these this team
Speaker 3: breaks off huge, big runs. It's not like they're going
Speaker 3: to have some clock management where it's like, all right,
Speaker 3: you know, four yard, three yard boom, we've just killed
Speaker 3: six minutes. Like no, they'll break up fifty yard touchdowns
Speaker 3: the next thing, you know. And it's twenty one to
Speaker 3: nothing in the second quarter and they've thrown the ball
Speaker 3: three times, and I don't think the Broncos have the
Speaker 3: pass wherewithal to be able to make up for that
Speaker 3: against the Bills, and they don't have a running game
Speaker 3: that's going to be able to chalk in. I think
Speaker 3: really easy first downs, like you know, third and three
Speaker 3: or anything like that. And that comes to where my
Speaker 3: prop is going to come into play. It's Bonnicks. I
Speaker 3: think bo Nicks is going to be running again. He
Speaker 3: was running early on in the year, then it just
Speaker 3: he just stopped running, and then all of a sudden,
Speaker 3: over the last month or so, it's back. He started
Speaker 3: running again. Twenty three point five is his rushing yard
Speaker 3: prop in this game. I think he might smash this.
Speaker 3: To be honest with you, He's hit this in three
Speaker 3: of his last four games. Bills, by the way, are
Speaker 3: giving up over right around five yards per carry to
Speaker 3: quarterbacks on the year, even though they haven't given up
Speaker 3: these big, huge games. Nicks on those five yards per carry,
Speaker 3: has had seven or more rushes in three of his
Speaker 3: last four games. And I think he is going to
Speaker 3: be the guy that's going to be doing that running.
Speaker 3: He's going to be the guy that has that quick
Speaker 3: setback and boom, he's going to hit the middle. They
Speaker 3: don't have much of a running game, don't be surprised
Speaker 3: when bo Nicks has more carries than arodric estimate in
Speaker 3: this game. So I like him from that betting perspective
Speaker 3: to hit those rushing yards. And I really do think
Speaker 3: the Bills are probably going to beat up on the Broncos.
Speaker 1: I think my approach in thinking about this game is
Speaker 1: that if he set aside the quarterbacks, which obviously won't
Speaker 1: be the case in the real game, like there is
Speaker 1: a very wide gap between Josh Allen and Boonix, But
Speaker 1: if you set aside the quarterbacks, I think these teams
Speaker 1: are like largely like pretty even. I think the Broncos
Speaker 1: have the better defense. I don't think the gap in
Speaker 1: sort of offensive talent around the quarterback is that wide.
Speaker 1: I'm not even sure which head coach I'd rather have.
Speaker 1: I think it's probably Sean Payton of the two, which
Speaker 1: I wouldn't have said a year ago. But I think
Speaker 1: he's really bounced back really well. And I'm just not
Speaker 1: convinced that the gap between Josh Allen and Bonix is alone.
Speaker 1: If you think the rest of it is fairly close,
Speaker 1: is worth the eight and a half. But it wouldn't
Speaker 1: totally stun me if this ended up being a blowout
Speaker 1: right right, like Ali could go nuclear.
Speaker 3: I think any you give me any Bills running back,
Speaker 3: just Tyler Johnson Ray Davis better than any Broncos running back.
Speaker 3: So all three of the running backs are better than
Speaker 3: any singular running back that they've got. So the running
Speaker 3: game is not even remotely close. Maybe it's closer when
Speaker 3: you're talking about the pieces. Maybe it's closer in the
Speaker 3: wide receiver corps. Maybe like Courtland Sutton individually is probably
Speaker 3: like the best wide receiver here, But then it's just
Speaker 3: a bunch of pieces. Like Veyle can be fun, Marvin
Speaker 3: Mims is obviously fun. But I mean you look at
Speaker 3: the Bills and it's like Amari Cooper leadership, Keon Coleman
Speaker 3: in saying great athleticism, Khalil should. I don't think it's
Speaker 3: particularly super close on the wide receivers. I don't think
Speaker 3: the running backs are remotely close offensive line on the Bill.
Speaker 3: So I know what you're saying here. Defensively, I'll take
Speaker 3: the Broncos, but I don't think there's any other piece
Speaker 3: that I would have even probably in the same territory
Speaker 3: Broncos to Bills. But I might be wrong. This is
Speaker 3: a big spread this might be some foolish one.
Speaker 1: I think I see it a little closer than you do.
Speaker 1: In terms of the offensive like support system around the quarterbacks.
Speaker 1: I do agree the Bills is better, but I think
Speaker 1: the gap between the defenses is wider in favor of
Speaker 1: the Broncos than the offenses aside from the quarterback is
Speaker 1: in favor of the Bills. But I do think it's close.
Speaker 1: My ultimate point is that I don't know that the
Speaker 1: difference between Josh Allen and Boonix like makes up for
Speaker 1: how close I see the rest of it in terms
Speaker 1: of this way you.
Speaker 2: Take the Bills put up thirty points because they do. Like,
Speaker 2: that's where I see the Broncos running in issues. I
Speaker 2: don't think they're going to win the shoot out.
Speaker 1: I don't think they score thirty Okay, I think they
Speaker 1: score high twenties. Like I think I think this game
Speaker 1: that's gonna be played in the mid to high twenties.
Speaker 2: Well that's that. But that's their path to keep it close.
Speaker 2: They got to keep it under that for sure.
Speaker 1: And this is not one that I'm like stopping my
Speaker 1: foot and like planting my flag like this. The Broncos
Speaker 1: are definitely covering or anything like that.
Speaker 2: Well, you do live in Denver.
Speaker 3: I was just about to say worm does live in Colorado.
Speaker 3: So I think it's like a little.
Speaker 2: Closer to your bone next Jersey.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you're a little close.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 3: You're a Ravens fan through and through. Like I'm in
Speaker 3: here in Arizona. The Arizona Cardinals were on the play
Speaker 3: I'll be smashing them. I hate the Cardinals here, but
Speaker 3: you got a little bit of love.
Speaker 1: For so many people asked me when I moved to
Speaker 1: Denver or even become a Broncos fan. I was like, no,
Speaker 1: like they're they're not in the same They're in the
Speaker 1: same conference as the Ravens. I would never root for
Speaker 1: them over the Ravens, like in a playoff matchup or
Speaker 1: anything like that. It's like, not even close. But we'll
Speaker 1: see other play I'm actually really excited for this game, Like,
Speaker 1: I know it's a big spread, but it's one of
Speaker 1: the games I'm most looking forward to watching this weekend.
Speaker 1: So we'll see how that one plays out. Let's go
Speaker 1: to the NFC matchups. For whatever reason, the uh, the
Speaker 1: NFL had the three AFC matchups first, and then NFC, NFC, NFC. Well,
Speaker 1: She'll start with you on this one, Packers Eagles. What's
Speaker 1: your prediction here?
Speaker 3: My big prediction overall is actually not going to center
Speaker 3: around a player. I think the Eagles are going to
Speaker 3: win this one. But the biggest prediction I'm going to
Speaker 3: play to the under. I think the under is in
Speaker 3: play for this. It actually moved up a half a point.
Speaker 3: It was like forty five like a day ago. It's
Speaker 3: going to forty five and a half. And part of
Speaker 3: my problem with this has been the stuttering of both
Speaker 3: of these offenses. On paper, this is a great game,
Speaker 3: you know, the version of the Packers that's in our
Speaker 3: brain from earlier in the season. Great game, but that
Speaker 3: Packer team is not there right now. I mean we
Speaker 3: saw this on display at the back half of this
Speaker 3: year where all of a sudden, Jordan Love they don't
Speaker 3: seem to have the same confidence every single week in
Speaker 3: Jordan Love to be slaying the ball. They've really really
Speaker 3: pushed to running the ball more. They lost Christian Watson
Speaker 3: as a big down the field guy, so I'm worried
Speaker 3: about whatever is going on with Jordan Love. I'm worried
Speaker 3: about them being down one of those pieces in Christian
Speaker 3: Watson that spreads the ball really deep. People have been
Speaker 3: targeting out you can see on Twitter. You know, it's
Speaker 3: like the top two dropped passes wide receivers are Tobs
Speaker 3: and Wix right now. I mean they're like the dynamic
Speaker 3: duo of dropped passes. Jayden Reid hasn't been involved. It's
Speaker 3: Josh Jacobs. So what I'm getting at is like this
Speaker 3: team I don't think even has a dimension. Where we
Speaker 3: then go back to the Eagles and what do we say.
Speaker 3: Pretty much through like twelve weeks of the Eagles, we're like, well,
Speaker 3: they're one dimensional. They have sakuon Barkley and they haven't
Speaker 3: been able to pass. Okay, maybe that has you know,
Speaker 3: rectified itself a little bit, but you've got this injured
Speaker 3: Jalen Hurts, you know, and like what obviously, like I
Speaker 3: think he's going to play, but the status has been
Speaker 3: in question. But you know, their passing game puts this
Speaker 3: in question. So let's bring it all back. These both
Speaker 3: of these teams are going to establish a win on
Speaker 3: the ground. Both of these defenses, too, are top six
Speaker 3: and least points given up per game. So these are
Speaker 3: good defenses overall that are going to halt down the
Speaker 3: passing game. Their offenses are going to keep it on
Speaker 3: the ground. Yes, you know, they may score some points
Speaker 3: and they may be able to drive the ball. Saquon Barkle,
Speaker 3: the best running back in the league. Josh Jacobs was phenomenal.
Speaker 3: But I really do think there is an opportunity that
Speaker 3: both of these teams are going to kill a lot o'clock.
Speaker 3: You might have a couple drives that are going to
Speaker 3: stall because we know the Packers aren't going to be
Speaker 3: throwing the ball super deep and there's been big inefficiencies
Speaker 3: from Jordan Love. So at the end of the day,
Speaker 3: I want to play the under on this game. And frankly,
Speaker 3: this is very betting pros here, but like a little
Speaker 3: teaser of the under of this game and the Ravens
Speaker 3: game is calling to me and screaming to me, because
Speaker 3: that teas would then mean the points would go up
Speaker 3: and you'd have both of these games to score under fifty.
Speaker 3: I think that's in play. Obviously on paper, the Eagles
Speaker 3: and Packers looks like it could be this explosive, big
Speaker 3: output of offense. I just don't think it is with
Speaker 3: stingier defenses and teams that have been thriving keeping the
Speaker 3: ball on the ground, So I'm going to play the under.
Speaker 3: But I do think that at the end of the day,
Speaker 3: the Eagles are going to run away with this.
Speaker 1: I didn't mention this, by the way, but the spread
Speaker 1: in this one is four and a half Eagles slaying
Speaker 1: four and a half. Jalen Hurts is practicing today on Wednesday,
Speaker 1: of the day we're recording this. We'll see kind of
Speaker 1: how that continues to play out. The talk has been
Speaker 1: seemingly very likely that he will he will be playing
Speaker 1: in this game as he comes back from concussion protocol.
Speaker 1: So ericson Welsh likes the under. Do you agree with
Speaker 1: that or do you prefer the over?
Speaker 2: I do not prefer the over now. I think that
Speaker 2: Welsh slid it out perfectly. There are two defenses that
Speaker 2: are good and they want to run the football right.
Speaker 2: Those are just trends that scream towards Hey, this game
Speaker 2: is going to go under. You're going to totally see
Speaker 2: the Eagles come out flat because Jalen Hurst has missed
Speaker 2: so much time and the Eagles office has been bad
Speaker 2: in the first halfs of games anyway, So we not
Speaker 2: surprised me at all. People start freaking out when the
Speaker 2: Packagers jump out to a lead and they end up
Speaker 2: losing in the end because the Eagles are playing at home.
Speaker 2: I think the Eagles always kind of rite the ship
Speaker 2: in the second half anyway. But I think the under
Speaker 2: is to play this game. To me, screams twenty three
Speaker 2: to twenty like that scores is kind of in my mind, like, yes,
Speaker 2: it'll get up over forty points, but eventually it just
Speaker 2: won't get there. As like you're going to be sweating
Speaker 2: the under at the end of the game, Welsh, like
Speaker 2: you're in the first half, for you'd be like, all right,
Speaker 2: it's going to be ten to three in the first half,
Speaker 2: Packers ten to three, and I'm just like all.
Speaker 3: Right, I'm feeling good. And then all of a sudden,
Speaker 3: it's going to be like you know, like you're saying,
Speaker 3: twenty is gonna be tied up at twenty into the
Speaker 3: fourth quarter with five minutes left.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think this game. I think the Packers are
Speaker 2: live here to cover the four and a half points
Speaker 2: because they're I don't know, man, they played good in
Speaker 2: postseason games like last year, right, they were seven point
Speaker 2: underdogs against the Cowboys. They won that game, and then
Speaker 2: they were ten point underdogs against the forty nine ers
Speaker 2: and they almost won that game. They ended up losing
Speaker 2: by a field goal. But I think, I don't know
Speaker 2: Jordan Love, just he finds a way in the playoffs.
Speaker 2: So I do think they're going to cover here, but
Speaker 2: I think the Eagles pull it out. But kind of
Speaker 2: going off of the under of the points, I'm going
Speaker 2: under on Jordan Love in the passing yard. So two
Speaker 2: hundred twenty seven and a half passing yards. So he's
Speaker 2: been under this number in three straight games, five of
Speaker 2: his last seven games playing. That's just not concluding last
Speaker 2: week where he only played half the game. And we
Speaker 2: just look at the Eagles all season long, this has
Speaker 2: been one of the best bets to make. Just take
Speaker 2: the under on the passing yards whoever is facing the
Speaker 2: Philadelphia Eagles since they're by week, only two quarterbacks have
Speaker 2: gone over their passing arts projection, Lamar Jackson and Jade
Speaker 2: and Daniels. Those are the only two guys that have
Speaker 2: been able to do it. So and then when you
Speaker 2: take out Christian Watson, out of the consideration of receivers
Speaker 2: to throw to Love is three and seven. Going under
Speaker 2: his passing yards prop with Christian Watson, so thirty percent
Speaker 2: and over the last two seasons. But he's been on
Speaker 2: the road. He's only hit the over on his passing
Speaker 2: arts projection one time without Christian Watson in the lineup,
Speaker 2: So yes, can they replace Watson's production maybe with these
Speaker 2: other receivers, But considering all the drops, it's just it's
Speaker 2: not a good bet to make. Hey, this is gonna
Speaker 2: be the game where he can throw for three hundred
Speaker 2: passing yards. Not without Christian wats it's even more unlikely
Speaker 2: that's going to happen. So kind of parlaying the under
Speaker 2: in the game totally probably means you're gonna see less
Speaker 2: passing yards overall. So I like the under on Jordan Love.
Speaker 1: I know I've made a couple of like predictions of
Speaker 1: you know, the team that's getting points covering already. This
Speaker 1: is the game where I think the upset could actually happen. Like,
Speaker 1: I would predict the Eagles to win, but it would
Speaker 1: not shock me if the Packers did. Like, it's really
Speaker 1: hard to forget how awesome they looked in their two
Speaker 1: playoff games last year. To your point, Erickson, and you know,
Speaker 1: the Eagles like haven't had Hurts for a couple of weeks.
Speaker 1: Maybe there's there's some rust there, so I.
Speaker 3: Mean it Hurts is also one hit away from like
Speaker 3: being out of the game again and then that team
Speaker 3: becomes again back to that one dimensional side. I agree
Speaker 3: with you on this too. Again very betting prosy, but
Speaker 3: like this, would you say four and a half right now, Like, yeah,
Speaker 3: that's a prime Packers teaser the number if I've ever
Speaker 3: seen it, because that would get your Packers to plus
Speaker 3: ten and a half, And that's that's exactly what you
Speaker 3: would want. You would want to get over one of
Speaker 3: those markers, those key indicators of betting, like you know,
Speaker 3: that's seven. If if a team was you know, minus
Speaker 3: one and a half or plus one and a half
Speaker 3: and you could tease them down, that would go over
Speaker 3: a touchdown. This would be over a touchdown and a field goal.
Speaker 3: So Packer, I agree with you. Packers are in play
Speaker 3: for this on the spread and probably like one of
Speaker 3: those tease pieces. I would not be shocked if the
Speaker 3: Packers walked away with this, especially though this would have
Speaker 3: to kind of counter I think what Erickson is talking about,
Speaker 3: Jordan Love is going to have to be like that
Speaker 3: big spectacular Jordan Love where there's in the ball and
Speaker 3: you know they're finding Jane Reed just like comes alive
Speaker 3: the Undertaker mean, ooh, he's just back and he comes alive.
Speaker 3: Like they would need to have big plays. But I
Speaker 3: think that's the problem of what has gone away. Play
Speaker 3: calling doesn't seem to trust him. But if they win
Speaker 3: this game, to me, this is him smashing all of that.
Speaker 3: He's going over three hundred yards, He's having three touchdowns
Speaker 3: like he's blown them up in the air.
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Speaker 1: to claim your prize. All right, Commanders Buccaneers, Welsh, what's
Speaker 1: your prediction here?
Speaker 3: I first think that this will be the best game
Speaker 3: of the weekend. This is the one I'm looking most
Speaker 3: forward to. Buccaneers, obviously, I think are a super scary
Speaker 3: team with what they've been able to do in the
Speaker 3: passing game. Their running game is super scary. Defensively, we'll
Speaker 3: kind of see where that goes. But from a game perspective,
Speaker 3: I kind of don't want to give you like who's
Speaker 3: going to win this game. I want to say this
Speaker 3: will be the best game of all of them. And
Speaker 3: my favorite from a prediction standpoint is betting on Bucky, which,
Speaker 3: by the way, I do think the Commanders can win
Speaker 3: this game. I'm going to lean on the Buccaneers here,
Speaker 3: and I'm going to lean on Bucky as I think
Speaker 3: they will as well. Bucky is going to go over
Speaker 3: one hundred on the ground and hit a touchdown, and
Speaker 3: that's actually something from a pure betting perspective, I'm going
Speaker 3: to parlay together. So go Bucky plus one hundred and
Speaker 3: a touchdown get you two to one on your money.
Speaker 3: Bucky has had fifteen to twenty carries per game over
Speaker 3: the last month, and that was always the big early
Speaker 3: season thing. It was like, ah, we love Bucky, he's crazy,
Speaker 3: but it's like, I need more than twelve carries and
Speaker 3: then catches, and that's ended up happening. He's getting twenty
Speaker 3: touches per game. Washington is giving up the fourth most
Speaker 3: rushing yards to running backs on the year and sixth
Speaker 3: most rushing yards over the last month. Jadan Daniels is
Speaker 3: going to keep them in the game the whole time.
Speaker 3: And that's why I think this game can be so great.
Speaker 3: They got Eckler back, they've got an established running game,
Speaker 3: they've got the passing game, and they've got Jadan Daniels.
Speaker 3: But if you can definitively tell me who the best
Speaker 3: quarterback in this matchup, is good on you. Because Baker's
Speaker 3: been great, but so is Daniels. So where's the big
Speaker 3: defining factor here? And I think it is in the
Speaker 3: Buccaneers can run the ball at a very high level
Speaker 3: and Washington gives up a lot on the rushing side.
Speaker 3: So I think that's where the Buccaneers are going to
Speaker 3: be able to take over from this and I think
Speaker 3: Bucky is going to have a very big, big, established game,
Speaker 3: hopefully Mike Evans, who's back from the casino, and there's
Speaker 3: no incentives that he can pout about that he doesn't
Speaker 3: hit until the playoffs. But we're not gonna worry about
Speaker 3: any of that. We're just going to play on Bucky.
Speaker 3: So this will be the best game, maybe the game
Speaker 3: we're talking about the most coming off of the weekend
Speaker 3: is that addiction and Bucky Irving one hundred rushing with
Speaker 3: a touchdown.
Speaker 1: Eric said, I'm curious to get your opinion both on
Speaker 1: Bucky Irving in this matchup, but also Welsh's causes this
Speaker 1: will be the game of the weekend.
Speaker 2: I agree. I think that this is the game where
Speaker 2: you don't bet the sides, bet the total, take the over,
Speaker 2: have some fun, have someone on Sunday night football route
Speaker 2: for both quarterbacks. Just ball out points galore. That's how
Speaker 2: you want approach this game because I think that, like
Speaker 2: Welsh said, it's tight spread for a reason. Field goal.
Speaker 2: Two offenses that are very explosive, have dynamic weapons, so
Speaker 2: you're not gonna feel good about that ticket when you
Speaker 2: have two teams that rank respectively top three in points
Speaker 2: scored efficiency all in the fourth quarter, so your team
Speaker 2: may be winning entering the fourth quarter, it's not safe
Speaker 2: because that the lead's gonna flip and flop, So just
Speaker 2: take the points here. And to that point as well,
Speaker 2: maybe it should have been my prediction that the games
Speaker 2: is going to go over fifteen and a half points.
Speaker 2: The Buccaneers have played eight games this year where the
Speaker 2: spread has been four and a half points or less,
Speaker 2: So whether they've been favored by four and a half
Speaker 2: points or underdogs bey four and a half points, eight
Speaker 2: games all overs, every single one is gone over the total.
Speaker 2: So when they play in games that we're projecting to
Speaker 2: be tight or back and forth in any capacity, it
Speaker 2: is back and forth. So I'm expecting points here. And
Speaker 2: that's why I love the Jade and Daniels prop so
Speaker 2: over on his passing yards. We know the book this is.
Speaker 2: This is Rins his repeat with Todd Bulls defense since
Speaker 2: he entered the league. Right stuff to run throw all
Speaker 2: over us, And I think that's what you're gonna see
Speaker 2: from Jayden and Daniels. I think he's gonna throw and
Speaker 2: he's gonna run and him and Terry McLaurin, I think
Speaker 2: this could be like a monster game for McLaren So
Speaker 2: I'll just take the over on his receiving yards PROP
Speaker 2: sixty receiving yards against the Buccaneers, and Daniels has gone
Speaker 2: over his passing arts PROP in three straight games. So look,
Speaker 2: he had the second half off of last week. They
Speaker 2: didn't play him because he was h Dallas's passers was
Speaker 2: getting after him real quick, So okay, let's take him
Speaker 2: out of the game get ready for again. That actually matters.
Speaker 2: So I think that he's just going to just completely
Speaker 2: ball out in this game. I don't know if they're gonna
Speaker 2: end up winning it. He's gonna be honestly, might come
Speaker 2: down whoever has the possession last that wins this game,
Speaker 2: but it's gonna be a shootout, and I expect the
Speaker 2: offensive rookie of the year to ball out and McLaurin
Speaker 2: to be his number one guy.
Speaker 1: Was the right game for Sunday Night Football? Like when
Speaker 1: when building the schedule.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the schedule makers did it right.
Speaker 1: The Houston game in Saturday afternoon obvious, and then you
Speaker 1: have to end with the four or five game on Monday,
Speaker 1: so there's only other one four or five games, so
Speaker 1: that was obvious as well. I thought Broncos Bills was
Speaker 1: very clearly like the Sunday afternoon That's just what it
Speaker 1: felt like. The other three I could have seen kind
Speaker 1: of being rotated in any order between Saturday night, Sunday
Speaker 1: late afternoon, and Sunday night. I like the schedule we got,
Speaker 1: but this was the one where I was I was
Speaker 1: surprised to see it in sundayight football, and I think
Speaker 1: I love it.
Speaker 3: But yeah, the only the only adjustment I would make
Speaker 3: looking at this schedule is I would put Packers and
Speaker 3: Eagles on Monday. And I know it might be like
Speaker 3: a seeding thing, that's fine, but like I would rather
Speaker 3: watch the Packers and Eagles on Monday to finish off
Speaker 3: the playoffs because of like how that game could go.
Speaker 3: But otherwise, like I'm fine with this. I think this
Speaker 3: is gonna be like on paper, maybe it doesn't look
Speaker 3: you're like the Commanders and Bucks. It's going to be
Speaker 3: like the best We're gonna We're gonna love having that
Speaker 3: game there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they do have to do the four or five
Speaker 1: game on Monday. I actually wish we didn't have a
Speaker 1: Monday game. Like I prefer three on Saturday, three on Sunday,
Speaker 1: and nothing on Monday. But if they have to do
Speaker 1: it this way, spread out over three days like this
Speaker 1: is a pretty great but.
Speaker 3: You got to remember there's one thing I've done this before,
Speaker 3: so apologies, but worm NFL cash rules everything around me.
Speaker 3: Cream get the money? Mind yet why they do it?
Speaker 1: I just don't like it. Let's go to that Vikings
Speaker 1: Rams game, last game on the slate. Well else, we'll
Speaker 1: start with you again. What is your prediction for Vikings Rams?
Speaker 1: And by the way, just because I keep forgetting to
Speaker 1: say it, this is a one and a half point spread.
Speaker 1: Vikings are laying one and a half on the road
Speaker 1: and the total is forty seven and a half.
Speaker 3: I think the Vikings might tear this up. I think
Speaker 3: they might end up tearing this up. But I know
Speaker 3: why this spread is there. And obviously you know the
Speaker 3: you know the Rams have hit a stride and they've offensively.
Speaker 3: You've got Cup, You've got Pooka, You've got the pieces
Speaker 3: that you need. Vikings played down especially last week and
Speaker 3: looked really bad with Darnold. I think this is going
Speaker 3: to be rectified. I think the Vikings are going to cover.
Speaker 3: Love the spread. Anything under three makes me feel a
Speaker 3: lot better. But Vikings win, they cover this spread. And
Speaker 3: in the player prediction market of my actual predictions, Jefferson,
Speaker 3: Justin Jefferson is going to have a big game. He
Speaker 3: got shut out in that last one. His reception yard
Speaker 3: prop is what I'm targeting. It's at six and a
Speaker 3: half nine or more targets he has seen in four
Speaker 3: straight games. They cooked him in that last outing. As
Speaker 3: I mentioned, I think he had nine targets only three catches,
Speaker 3: but he had hit this reception yard prop in five
Speaker 3: straight games prior to that last game. He hit this
Speaker 3: also in the previous matchup against the Lions. So they
Speaker 3: are going to be hot and heavy getting the ball
Speaker 3: to Justin Jefferson. I don't know why Darnold didn't want
Speaker 3: to look at Jordan Addison. Maybe they'll rectify that wide
Speaker 3: opening the end zone. Don't worry about it. It's going
Speaker 3: to be all Justin Jefferson though, And I do think
Speaker 3: this team is going to be able to find a
Speaker 3: much bigger success of throwing the ball. So I'm going
Speaker 3: to go with Justin Jefferson over six and a half receptions.
Speaker 3: By the way, I think I mentioned the last thing
Speaker 3: note I wrote incorrectly. I said he hit this in
Speaker 3: the last outing. I was referring to the Lions in
Speaker 3: that I don't know why I did that, but five
Speaker 3: straight games of hitting this reception yard prop, he's smashing
Speaker 3: this one. So give me Justin Jefferson over six and
Speaker 3: a half.
Speaker 1: Erickson, what do you think about Jefferson in this one?
Speaker 1: Six and a half receptions, ninety and a half is
Speaker 1: the receiving yards line? You know, first steschdown score plus
Speaker 1: six fifty? Any of these standouts to you?
Speaker 2: I mean, going back to Justin Jefferson, I think after
Speaker 2: a bad game makes a ton of sense. You know,
Speaker 2: wide receiver production tends to be up and down. And
Speaker 2: it's funny becausehen you look at Justin Jefferson's final accounting
Speaker 2: stats this year, and because he didn't really have any
Speaker 2: of those really Marquee absolutely like Jamar Chase blow up games.
Speaker 2: He had like fifteen hundred receiving yards Like oh, like
Speaker 2: he was fine, Like he was totally good. He was
Speaker 2: all said and even. And that's coming off with that
Speaker 2: Week eighteen dud two. So yeah, I think going it's
Speaker 2: fun to bet overs when they're not totally like out
Speaker 2: of control on elite players, right, Like it's fun to
Speaker 2: be overs on justin Jefferson because he's nasty and he
Speaker 2: could do this in the first half. So especially against
Speaker 2: the Rams defense that's been terrible in the secondary all
Speaker 2: year long. I don't if they try to do what
Speaker 2: the lines did to the Vikings offense, I just don't
Speaker 2: think it's gonna work. I don't think you're gonna see
Speaker 2: the Rams try to like, oh, we'll just the man coverage,
Speaker 2: it'll be great, Like it'll be fine, we'll just splitz.
Speaker 2: Maybe works. I mean, Donald's gonna bounce back. I mean,
Speaker 2: He's not going to complete under fifty percent of his
Speaker 2: passes for the second straight game. It just all eyes
Speaker 2: are on Donald and he just totally just failed to
Speaker 2: live up to the expectation. But he gets another shot
Speaker 2: at it here in the playoffs, so I think we're
Speaker 2: going to see a bounce back effort from him. And also,
Speaker 2: the thing is the Rams offense hasn't nearly looked as
Speaker 2: good either, but they just rested their guys last week,
Speaker 2: so we didn't get to see Matthew Stafford kind of struggle,
Speaker 2: which has kind of been his case in the Rams
Speaker 2: offense over the last couple of weeks.
Speaker 1: So what's your prediction of this one.
Speaker 2: Then, yeah, going back to the Rams offense, right, Matthew
Speaker 2: Stafford under two hundred thirty eight and a half passing yards.
Speaker 2: So he's under two hundred and forty passing yards in
Speaker 2: four of his last five games. And this is the
Speaker 2: trend that I'm looking at and I ignored when Welsh
Speaker 2: and I were all over the Jordan Love props against
Speaker 2: Minnesota Vikings that the Minnesota Vikings defense and Brian Flores
Speaker 2: has done a wonderful job in terms of rematches. When
Speaker 2: I look at the quarterbacks that have faced the Vikings,
Speaker 2: five of the last eight quarterbacks who faced the Vikings
Speaker 2: have exceeded their passing yards prop by an average of
Speaker 2: almost one hundred passing yards. So you might think, wait,
Speaker 2: I thought you want to take the under on Matthew Stafford.
Speaker 2: I do, because you look at the quarterbacks that have
Speaker 2: not exceeded the passing arts projection, they're all the quarterbacks
Speaker 2: that was the rematch the second time they played the
Speaker 2: Minnesota Vikings. Caleb Williams under second time, Jordan Love under
Speaker 2: second time, Jared Goff under second time. Rams Vikings rematch
Speaker 2: from week eight, Matthew Stafford under second time against the
Speaker 2: Minnesota Vikings. So I'm trusting the process here with Brian Flores,
Speaker 2: trusting his defense to make adjustments and slow down this
Speaker 2: rams passing attack which has become Puka Nakua and Cooper
Speaker 2: c which Pooka Pooka, then Poka Pooka and more Pooka.
Speaker 1: Well, what do you think about the Stafford prop here?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm I'm absolutely with this one. Like I think
Speaker 3: this is a team that's going to have to establish
Speaker 3: as best as possible on the ground with Kyron Williams.
Speaker 3: I don't know if it's going to be big play stuff,
Speaker 3: you know, the whole one of the one themes too,
Speaker 3: just to throw out with the Vikings that I just
Speaker 3: remember from like whatever it was we two or three
Speaker 3: when the forty nine ers were getting trounced by the Vikings,
Speaker 3: was like everyone's talked about schemes, like the defensive schemes
Speaker 3: that the Vikings have put together have really put weight
Speaker 3: on quarterbacks and you know, just bracketing coverages and stuff
Speaker 3: like that. So I'm with this one. The only caveat
Speaker 3: would be I'm open to this game also blowing up
Speaker 3: like in favor of the Vikings and if that happens.
Speaker 3: That's then going to put the Rams in a situation
Speaker 3: where they're going to be constantly throwing the ball, and
Speaker 3: if you put enough volume on that, I think there
Speaker 3: could maybe a little bit of a problem with it.
Speaker 3: What was the number again on it on Stafford.
Speaker 1: Two thirty five and a half?
Speaker 3: Yeah, cool man, And that that's a lot. They want
Speaker 3: you to smash the over on that too. Oh my god,
Speaker 3: you see that like a playoff game ramp. They want
Speaker 3: you to smash that over. That's like a warning sign.
Speaker 3: But I love the breakdown, especially the after game the
Speaker 3: rematch cover of what Ericson's with. So I'm with this
Speaker 3: one because I do think this is an all Vikings game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's funny. The two four or five games, which
Speaker 1: theoretically should be close, are the two that I feel
Speaker 1: best about, like a blowout, Like I really think Vikings
Speaker 1: could like just completely dominate the Rams, and like I
Speaker 1: said at the beginning, I think the Chargers could dominate
Speaker 1: the Texans.
Speaker 3: This might be one of those things too where we're
Speaker 3: like we come off of the high of this great
Speaker 3: Sunday night game and we're like, oh my god, just
Speaker 3: football is awesome. And then Monday, it was just like
Speaker 3: it's the suckiest game and we're just like this is stupid,
Speaker 3: Like you turn it off in the third quarter, vikings
Speaker 3: are up, you know whatever, thirty to three and it's
Speaker 3: boy and it's like one of those classic lightdown games.
Speaker 3: Don't be surprised if that happens as well.
Speaker 1: We'll see how it goes. Really excited for the late Basically,
Speaker 1: no matter who wins these games, the divisional round is
Speaker 1: going to be awesome. So I'm really excited for the
Speaker 1: next two weekends. Like I said at the top of
Speaker 1: the show, we'll wrap up there. Hopefully we did pretty
Speaker 1: well in these predictions. We'll see how we do and
Speaker 1: we will be back next week to try again at
Speaker 1: the divisional round for Ericson and Welsh Ryan Whelming. Thanks
Speaker 1: for tuning in and we'll see you again next week. Thanks
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