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Speaker 1: Well, Argentina stocks are soaring as local markets reopen following

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Speaker 1: the decisive victory of Javier Malay. We're now an emerging

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Speaker 1: markets investor. Mark Mobius, president of Mobias Investment Consulting, says

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Speaker 1: these changes can be an opportunity. He joins us now

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Speaker 1: from Dubai. Mark, thank you so much for being with us.

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Speaker 1: Of course, when we talk about the changes that he's

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Speaker 1: hoping to bring, it includes the dollarization of the economy,

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Speaker 1: potentially shuttering the central bank. What's the investment opportunity in.

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Speaker 2: That, Well, it's all about the currency, as you know.

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Speaker 3: I mean, if you go into a place like Argentina

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Speaker 3: where there's inflation. We were investing at one point when

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Speaker 3: it was about two thousand percent and it was very,

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Speaker 3: very difficult. We had the buy companies on the basis

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Speaker 3: of their book value rather than anything else. But at

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Speaker 3: the end of the day, it's been a very dangerous

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Speaker 3: place to be with the currency of the way it

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Speaker 3: is and with inflation in that situation. So now if

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Speaker 3: they dollaright, if that's a big if, by the way,

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Speaker 3: if they go ahead with that, it will be an

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Speaker 3: incredible boost for the economy and for the country. You'll

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Speaker 3: see inflation down dramatically. If they get rid of the

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Speaker 3: central bank, that will be one another step in the

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Speaker 3: right direction. And I think if the outlook is terrific

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Speaker 3: under these circumstances, But we have to wait and see

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Speaker 3: if the new president can actually implement those changes.

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Speaker 4: Mark Mark good afternoon. Are there enough dollars to do that?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, there's plenty of dollars. It's not a matter of

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Speaker 3: the quantity of dollars. It's a matter of pegging the

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Speaker 3: economy to the US dollar. Because Argentine people have lots

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Speaker 3: of dollars offshore.

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Speaker 2: You better believe that.

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Speaker 3: They protected themselves from this incredible inflation by having dollars.

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Speaker 3: So there's plenty of dollars, and there's a psychological impact.

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Speaker 2: Which is so important.

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Speaker 3: It's not a matter of them, you know, using dollars

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Speaker 3: every day with cash transactions nowadays, with paperless transactions. As

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Speaker 3: long as you're pegged to the dollar and everything, all

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Speaker 3: the prices are pegged to the dollar, then you're going

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Speaker 3: to see an incredible return of confidence.

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Speaker 1: So mart obviously, Argentina is one of the economies in

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Speaker 1: South America that has seen a certain degree of volatility.

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Speaker 1: There's going to be a lot of questions going forward

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Speaker 1: as to how Malay also navigates relationships within the region

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Speaker 1: and more geopolitically. When you're looking more widely at Latin America,

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Speaker 1: does Argentina present the best opportunities or is there other

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Speaker 1: areas where it's relatively more attractive.

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Speaker 3: Well, when you look at Argentina, you've already got to

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Speaker 3: look at Brazil in conjunction with Argentina.

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Speaker 2: As you know, at one.

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Speaker 3: Point they've talked about having a combined currency, combining the

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Speaker 3: economies of these two great nations, and that is possibly

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Speaker 3: something that can happen, because, as you know, the history

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Speaker 3: of Brazil is one of incredible high inflation. So if

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Speaker 3: they can get together in that respect, it will be

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Speaker 3: very very good. These are big, big economies, terrific opportunities,

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Speaker 3: lots of great companies, so this would be a good

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Speaker 3: thing for Brazil as well.

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Speaker 4: Mark, would you be investing, how would you be investing?

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Speaker 4: Are you investing kind of how are you thinking about this?

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Speaker 4: Are you getting ready to invest? Where do you see

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Speaker 4: the biggest opportunity? Just give us them? Well, maybe it's

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Speaker 4: playbook care.

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Speaker 3: Well, right now, with these changes, we're beginning to do scanners,

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Speaker 3: you know, we do scanning of the entire market to

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Speaker 3: see where the opportunities may be, which companies have good

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Speaker 3: retterms on capital, et cetera.

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Speaker 2: Et cetera.

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Speaker 3: And the nice thing about the Argentine economy being such

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Speaker 3: a big economy, there's lots of opportunities in different sectors.

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Speaker 3: So we're looking at every sector that we can look at.

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Speaker 3: Of course, we're very interested in tech software, that sort

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Speaker 3: of thing, but there are many other opportunities we can

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Speaker 3: look at. So we're keeping an open mind and now's

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Speaker 3: the time to do some scanning to look at where

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Speaker 3: the opportunities are for companies we should.

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Speaker 2: Be looking at.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so when you're doing that scanning mark on a

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Speaker 1: more global scale, that's one region that we have pretty

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Speaker 1: thoroughly gone through. Now what about others. If you're looking

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Speaker 1: at say China, for example, which has raised a lot

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Speaker 1: of question marks in terms of the fragilities and that economy.

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Speaker 1: The trajectory of it is that somewhere you see opportunity

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Speaker 1: or danger.

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Speaker 3: There are opportunities in China. It's a huge market, as

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Speaker 3: you know, it's a big economy. But we think it's

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Speaker 3: a better idea if you want to look at China,

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Speaker 3: look at it through Taiwan because you must remember there's

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Speaker 3: a lot of training that takes place between Taiwan and China.

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Speaker 3: Many Taiwanese companies are in China. Of course, Foxcom is

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Speaker 3: probably the best example, maybe not a good example of

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Speaker 3: this stage of the game, but there are many many

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Speaker 3: companies like that. So we prefer to go into China

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Speaker 3: through Taiwan, particularly now with the incredibly increased emphasis in

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Speaker 3: China on technology and particularly semiconductors. As you know PSMC

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Speaker 3: Taiwan semi conductor manufacturing, and Taiwan is the leader in

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Speaker 3: the world at high their value sem conductors, so that's

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Speaker 3: where we.

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Speaker 2: Want to be.

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Speaker 4: Mark. You're not in any way concerned therefore, that we

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Speaker 4: do see geopolitical tensions around the island being raised. There

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Speaker 4: are many people that are concerned that twenty twenty four

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Speaker 4: could be the year in which we do see tensions

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Speaker 4: being ratcheted higher. There's even some talk of an embarger

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Speaker 4: We don't know what's going on in the mind of

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Speaker 4: the senior leadership in Beijing. You're confident enough that we're

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Speaker 4: not going to see any trouble, that we're not going

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Speaker 4: to see that kind of an event presenting itself in

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Speaker 4: order to make those investments.

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Speaker 3: I feel that there's not going to be anything happening

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Speaker 3: in this short term. When I say short term, I

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Speaker 3: mean the next two or three years. And the reason

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Speaker 3: for that is China is not going to benefit from

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Speaker 3: a military invasion of Taiwan.

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Speaker 2: In fact, they won't get what they want.

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Speaker 3: They want a handover, which is peaceful where they can

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Speaker 3: take over and begin to benefit from the companies in Taiwan.

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Speaker 3: And if you have a pot war, that's not going

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Speaker 3: to happen. So it's psychological warfare that we have now,

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Speaker 3: where China says, look, we want to take Taiwan, we'll

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Speaker 3: do it with force, but.

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Speaker 2: They really are not going to implement that, particularly now.

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Speaker 3: It's interesting to note that the visit by Sheet to

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Speaker 3: the US, my take of that was that they're not

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Speaker 3: going to be moving in that direction anytime soon. They've

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Speaker 3: got too many things to worry about at home, the economy.

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Speaker 2: From what's happening with the housing, etc. Etc.

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Speaker 1: Well, when we think about the economy mark, of course,

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Speaker 1: the consistent messaging from the Biden administration from here in

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Speaker 1: Washington is that the US is not looking to decouple

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Speaker 1: with China. China, of course doesn't want the US to

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Speaker 1: be decoupling, hence why we're talking about diversification or friend shoring. Rather.

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Speaker 1: The going thinking though, is to some degree that is

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Speaker 1: happening already, whether or not it is stated public policy,

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Speaker 1: and that that ultimately could be kind of inflationary. How

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Speaker 1: are you thinking about inflationary dynamics right now at a

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Speaker 1: time when clearly inflation is on the downturn, but there

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Speaker 1: could be a lot of risks to reinflate it.

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Speaker 3: Oh, there's no question if you had a complete shutdown

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Speaker 3: of supply from China, the US consumer market will be

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Speaker 3: in trouble. I mean, you just walk into Walmart or

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Speaker 3: any of the big retailed giants in America and you'll

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Speaker 3: see made in China all over the place.

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Speaker 2: So this is a real problem. And China can make

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Speaker 2: things so cheap, and.

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Speaker 3: Of course some of the quality is excellent, but a

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Speaker 3: lot of these companies in America beginning to realize they

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Speaker 3: cannot depend only in China.

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Speaker 2: That's why they're moving into India in particular.

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Speaker 3: They've already moved into Vietnam, into Malaysias, these other countries,

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Speaker 3: but India is going to be the big beneficiary of

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Speaker 3: the switch. However, you're not going to see supply from

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Speaker 3: China being completely shut off.

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Speaker 2: That's not in the carts.

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Speaker 4: Mark always great to catch up. Thanks for joining us,

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Speaker 4: really appreciate it. More Obi's president of Ovius Investment Consulting