WEBVTT - Cliff Notes: THE NEXT BEAR MARKET

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<v Speaker 1>An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child

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<v Speaker 2>Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security.

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<v Speaker 3>This is something that I've always been concerned about. Bear

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<v Speaker 3>markets usually and correct me if I'm wrong. Usually last

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<v Speaker 3>I mean bull markets usually last seven years, and then

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<v Speaker 3>bear markets last like eighteen months on average, I believe

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<v Speaker 3>around that time. So we were in a twelve year

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<v Speaker 3>bull market, which, like you said, like the longest in history,

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<v Speaker 3>and then we had the shortest bear market in history

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<v Speaker 3>last year, which is only a few months. And now

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<v Speaker 3>we're back in a bull market. So obviously that was

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<v Speaker 3>a lot due to the government just printing money at

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<v Speaker 3>unprecedented rate and pumped a lot of money into the economy,

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<v Speaker 3>which made us go back into it helped us go

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<v Speaker 3>back into a bull market. But it's one of these

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<v Speaker 3>things where at some point in my brain we have

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<v Speaker 3>to go back into a prolonged bear market, or is

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<v Speaker 3>that no longer the case where it's like, okay, bear

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<v Speaker 3>markets might not happen anymore like how they used to happen.

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<v Speaker 2>Great question. Our good buddy, My good buddy.

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<v Speaker 4>JC Peretz likes to say, there's always a bear market somewhere.

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<v Speaker 4>So we're in if you look around the market, and

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<v Speaker 4>it's a global market, and it's a market of stocks. Right,

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<v Speaker 4>there's the stock market, but we always talk about the Dow,

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<v Speaker 4>the SMP, the Russell, but then there's the global market

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<v Speaker 4>of stocks. And if you look around the Hangsang fell

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<v Speaker 4>ten percent last week. That's a technical correction. You look

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<v Speaker 4>at the MEME stocks, AMC and game Stop, even though

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<v Speaker 4>they're up whatever fourteen hundred, twelve hundred percent, they're down

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<v Speaker 4>forty five fifty percent from their highs. Crypto is in

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<v Speaker 4>a technical bear market. There's always a bear market happening.

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<v Speaker 4>It just depends on the asset class you're looking at

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<v Speaker 4>or where you're looking around the world.

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<v Speaker 2>So there's that.

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<v Speaker 4>Are we going to have a bear market in the

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<v Speaker 4>United States and the S and P five hundred of

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<v Speaker 4>the Dow, Yeah, we are going to have one. The

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<v Speaker 4>fact is, though, and you mentioned it, that was the

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<v Speaker 4>cutest little bear market in history.

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<v Speaker 2>It hurt that thirty five percent oft, but it was cute.

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<v Speaker 4>It lasted five minutes. Right again, we had the support.

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<v Speaker 4>But there's also this, and this is important. There are

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<v Speaker 4>so many passive investors in the stock market right now,

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<v Speaker 4>passively investing through their four to oh one K, through

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<v Speaker 4>their roth IRA, through their own brokerage accounts. They're just

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<v Speaker 4>setting in forgetting it through the robo advisors. There's just

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<v Speaker 4>a ton of money sitting there in the vanguards and

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<v Speaker 4>the Fidelity index funds of the world. Right It's heavy.

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<v Speaker 4>It's like a big heavy ship. It takes a lot

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<v Speaker 4>to move that whole ship down and get passive investors

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<v Speaker 4>to sell. Everybody's got a threshold, but for passive investors,

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<v Speaker 4>this household across the United States and across the world

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<v Speaker 4>sitting on all of this stock income, people have a

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<v Speaker 4>very deep threshold before they're ready to.

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<v Speaker 2>Throw in their hands. So we'll get a bear market.

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<v Speaker 4>It may come soon, right this is the worst two

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<v Speaker 4>months of the stock market right now, August and September.

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<v Speaker 2>We may get a correction here.

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<v Speaker 4>We may fall into a bear I doubt it, But

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<v Speaker 4>in general, I just think the market is so heavy

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<v Speaker 4>that we're going to get these things, but they're not

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<v Speaker 4>going to last long. And the government now has this

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<v Speaker 4>moral hazard where they're just not letting things fall that far.

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<v Speaker 4>They're not letting the capital markets fall apart because they

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<v Speaker 4>don't want a two thousand and eight two thousand and

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<v Speaker 4>nine situation again.

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<v Speaker 5>And if they did that, I think in twenty twenty last.

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<v Speaker 2>Year, we were crashed.

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<v Speaker 5>Through the fifty percent of the doubt. And what people

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<v Speaker 5>are not remembering in nineteen seventy nineteen eighty, there wasn't

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<v Speaker 5>as much quantitative easing, but as you mentioned, Caleb, the

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<v Speaker 5>amount of people that are buying automatically, and then the

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<v Speaker 5>preaching of index funds was not present those two factors,

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<v Speaker 5>Like nineteen twenty nine, everyone was not automatically invested into

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<v Speaker 5>four one case or mutual fund plan, so those levers

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<v Speaker 5>are dramatically different. And then but the quantitative easing thing,

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<v Speaker 5>because I know, for Shot is a pessimist like Rashat

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<v Speaker 5>would make me prove your case to him, and the

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<v Speaker 5>thing is like we the quantitative easing part is tough

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<v Speaker 5>because now you're building a house of cards. But they,

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<v Speaker 5>as Cayler mentioned, you can't stop the quantitative easing because

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<v Speaker 5>if we do in the floor falls underneath it, it'll

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<v Speaker 5>be disastrous for many industries, many people, and many jobs

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<v Speaker 5>will go away. So now it's this thing that you

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<v Speaker 5>have to kind of keep in place and probably for

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<v Speaker 5>the next twenty something years that would have to be

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<v Speaker 5>in place until we reach your point in a return.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, Caleb.

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<v Speaker 6>Obviously at Vesikipedia is almost I mean it is a

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<v Speaker 6>search engine for anybody really trying to learn about investing.

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<v Speaker 6>I'm wondering what you do, right because as you see

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<v Speaker 6>these the people's searching words and what type of analytics.

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<v Speaker 2>Are you earners?

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<v Speaker 7>all you need?

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<v Speaker 2>You're using?

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<v Speaker 6>And what are you seeing with those analytics? Right? Somebody

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<v Speaker 6>typing in means socks? All right, this must be something

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<v Speaker 6>that's going on or you hear fear and you hear

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<v Speaker 6>you might see shyy typing in? What's a big market?

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<v Speaker 6>What's the long What are you doing with these analytics?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah? Great question.

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<v Speaker 4>And because we have a lot of people who are

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<v Speaker 4>doing this twenty three odd million visitors a month, three

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<v Speaker 4>million page US a day on the on order, uh,

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<v Speaker 4>sometimes more, we're seeing what the questions are that people

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<v Speaker 4>are asking, and in that you see their intention, not

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<v Speaker 4>in a creepy way like we're seeing what you might

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<v Speaker 4>see in a Google trend surch What we're seeing at

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<v Speaker 4>a very what we call a taxonomy level. So we

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<v Speaker 4>have our taxes, are investing taxes in our trading taxes.

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<v Speaker 4>We're seeing what people are specifically looking at, and sometimes

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<v Speaker 4>that is as broad and one of the more popular

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<v Speaker 4>questions on the website, believe it or not, is what

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<v Speaker 4>is money? I think that is people literally wondering what

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<v Speaker 4>is this thing we call money? And I also think

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<v Speaker 4>it's people thinking about a crypto world, like what is

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<v Speaker 4>money metaphysically? So we have that, but we also have

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<v Speaker 4>people asking very point of questions like how do I

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<v Speaker 4>start investing with ten thousand dollars or roth ira or

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<v Speaker 4>four oh one k or tdum error trade or a

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<v Speaker 4>robinhood which brokers better? Or how do I buy swaps?

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<v Speaker 4>Or how do I buy warrants? Or what's a spect

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<v Speaker 4>So when you get all of that, you know where

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<v Speaker 4>the interest is, but you also know what people are

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<v Speaker 4>sort of fearing or what they're optimistic about. So when

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<v Speaker 4>people are searching what is volatility, what is the VIX?

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<v Speaker 4>What is a bear market? How much could I lose?

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<v Speaker 4>What is a you know when you see those fear

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<v Speaker 4>based terms, We've created an anxiety index, which actually peaks

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<v Speaker 4>before the VIX index, because we see what you're searching

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<v Speaker 4>for and think about it. When you get scared and

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<v Speaker 4>you want to learn something, You're like, what is a this?

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<v Speaker 4>Before I do this? We know what the what is

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<v Speaker 4>this part of that is? And we're seeing those spikes

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<v Speaker 4>in fear and anxiety before they appear in the stock market,

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<v Speaker 4>through the VIX, through the options market, and into the

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<v Speaker 4>stock market. It's fascinating, but it also makes us go,

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<v Speaker 4>we better update that article because something big just happened.

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<v Speaker 2>We had the reverse stock split with GE today.

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<v Speaker 4>All of a sudden, I'm looking at Google Analytics on

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<v Speaker 4>our website and reverse stock splits spiking like a rocket ship,

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<v Speaker 4>and I'm like, what happened? I go and I find

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<v Speaker 4>the reverse stocks with with G, put that anecdote in

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<v Speaker 4>the in the into the story and move on. So

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<v Speaker 4>we have to update our content to make sure that

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<v Speaker 4>we're we're not chasing the news. We're just trying to

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<v Speaker 4>be relevant around it. And because we have so many terms,

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<v Speaker 4>we're doing this at scale by the thousands every week.

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah, that was that was my search engine on the

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<v Speaker 6>warrant call I hit ian up and we would like

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<v Speaker 6>to studying that together.

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<v Speaker 3>Let's let's let's let's ask about a couple of questions

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<v Speaker 3>if we can about some terms, because we very rarely

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<v Speaker 3>get a chance to do this, especially with somebody who

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<v Speaker 3>does it for a living. So you talked about reverse

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<v Speaker 3>stock split. A lot of people might not be familiar

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<v Speaker 3>with what a reverse stock split is. What is the

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<v Speaker 3>reverse stock split?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, a company that issues a public company that issues

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<v Speaker 4>shares may decide to split their shares traditionally. So if

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<v Speaker 4>they had a thousand, or let's just say a million

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<v Speaker 4>shares outstanding, they split their shares. Now they have two million,

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<v Speaker 4>but at half the price, or reverse splits the other way,

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<v Speaker 4>or you're splitting down from you know, you're reducing the

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<v Speaker 4>amount of shares you have on the market. We're making

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<v Speaker 4>each share worth more. So if you had a million

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<v Speaker 4>shares and you reverse split two for one, now you

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<v Speaker 4>have five hundred thousand shares, but those each individual shares

0:11:32.720 --> 0:11:35.160
<v Speaker 4>worth twice that. So it's just a way of either

0:11:35.440 --> 0:11:38.920
<v Speaker 4>raising the value of the individual share through a reverse split,

0:11:39.200 --> 0:11:43.760
<v Speaker 4>or creating more shares outstanding to make more shares available

0:11:43.760 --> 0:11:46.360
<v Speaker 4>to the public markets if you're doing a traditional split.

0:11:46.440 --> 0:11:48.760
<v Speaker 4>So there's a difference, but it really is what the

0:11:48.800 --> 0:11:51.240
<v Speaker 4>company is trying to do with its share base, and

0:11:51.280 --> 0:11:56.040
<v Speaker 4>companies will often split their shares to make more shares

0:11:56.080 --> 0:11:58.360
<v Speaker 4>available outstanding so that more people can buy. And you

0:11:58.400 --> 0:11:59.920
<v Speaker 4>saw some of this happening with some of the memest

0:12:00.559 --> 0:12:02.760
<v Speaker 4>but then you have companies that will never ever split,

0:12:03.080 --> 0:12:05.599
<v Speaker 4>like a Berkshire Hathaway. That's why the stock price for

0:12:05.640 --> 0:12:07.880
<v Speaker 4>Berkshire Hathaway Class A shares is two.

0:12:07.800 --> 0:12:10.199
<v Speaker 2>Hundred and sixty or whatever thousand dollars apiece.

0:12:12.320 --> 0:12:17.120
<v Speaker 3>My graduates from my school being forced bad drop bag

0:12:17.280 --> 0:12:20.600
<v Speaker 3>drop Mike, drop bag drop drop.

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<v Speaker 1>An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child

0:12:35.800 --> 0:12:39.599
<v Speaker 1>in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador

0:12:39.840 --> 0:12:44.000
<v Speaker 1>accused of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with

0:12:44.040 --> 0:12:47.920
<v Speaker 1>filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just

0:12:48.040 --> 0:12:51.800
<v Speaker 1>some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President

0:12:51.840 --> 0:12:55.360
<v Speaker 1>Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christin Noman, the United States

0:12:55.440 --> 0:13:00.280
<v Speaker 1>Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal order

0:13:00.280 --> 0:13:03.800
<v Speaker 1>crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over

0:13:03.880 --> 0:13:07.080
<v Speaker 1>one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you

0:13:07.160 --> 0:13:11.000
<v Speaker 1>are here illegally, your next you will be fine nearly

0:13:11.120 --> 0:13:15.120
<v Speaker 1>one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned and deported, you will

0:13:15.160 --> 0:13:18.800
<v Speaker 1>never return. But if you register using our CBP home

0:13:18.840 --> 0:13:22.160
<v Speaker 1>app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.

0:13:22.600 --> 0:13:27.320
<v Speaker 1>Do what's right, leave now. Under President Trump America's laws,

0:13:27.520 --> 0:13:29.960
<v Speaker 1>border and families will be protected.

0:13:30.040 --> 0:13:32.199
<v Speaker 2>Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security,