1 00:00:02,120 --> 00:00:06,600 Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg Sound On, 2 00:00:07,480 --> 00:00:09,800 Speaker 1: But we have twelve million jobs opening, six million people 3 00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:11,959 Speaker 1: roughly looking for work. Why shouldn't be able to find 4 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,400 Speaker 1: a job? Ukrainians have quite frankly, a lot more information 5 00:00:15,440 --> 00:00:18,560 Speaker 1: than we do. This is their country, their territory. Floomberg 6 00:00:18,760 --> 00:00:23,240 Speaker 1: Sound On Politics, policy and perspective from DC's top names. 7 00:00:23,480 --> 00:00:26,560 Speaker 1: I'm sure Democrats would stay they're shaming Republicans, but I 8 00:00:26,560 --> 00:00:29,520 Speaker 1: think this is an issue that really motivates both sides. 9 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:31,960 Speaker 1: Given some of the votes that we saw in the Senate, 10 00:00:32,000 --> 00:00:35,520 Speaker 1: there's definitely the momentum and the will to pass something. 11 00:00:35,600 --> 00:00:40,160 Speaker 1: From Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. 12 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:45,360 Speaker 1: The Pentagon says it is not directing the war in Ukraine. 13 00:00:45,560 --> 00:00:48,640 Speaker 1: Welcome to the fastest hour in politics with the latest 14 00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:52,600 Speaker 1: on Russia's war and an important conversation ahead with Senator 15 00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:56,760 Speaker 1: Mark Warner, Democrat from Virginia, chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, 16 00:00:57,040 --> 00:01:01,600 Speaker 1: member of Finance, Banking and Rules, who was also instrumental 17 00:01:01,760 --> 00:01:05,039 Speaker 1: in Boeing moving its headquarters to the Washington area, will 18 00:01:05,080 --> 00:01:07,920 Speaker 1: get into all of this. And with two job openings 19 00:01:07,959 --> 00:01:10,400 Speaker 1: for every job seeker in America right now, we look 20 00:01:10,400 --> 00:01:13,759 Speaker 1: inside another strong Job's report and talk about the risks 21 00:01:13,800 --> 00:01:17,120 Speaker 1: of inflation with Jared Bernstein of the White House Council 22 00:01:17,120 --> 00:01:20,280 Speaker 1: of Economic Advisors. Later on, the prospect of Roe v. 23 00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:23,360 Speaker 1: Wade being overturned could mobilize Democrats in the fall, but 24 00:01:23,440 --> 00:01:27,120 Speaker 1: Bloomberg opinion columnist Julianna Goldman says they will need to 25 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:30,720 Speaker 1: organize in order to win. The Biden administration says it 26 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:34,760 Speaker 1: is not providing intelligence to Ukraine on the locations of 27 00:01:34,840 --> 00:01:38,240 Speaker 1: Russian generals, and it did not direct it. Says Ukraine's 28 00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:42,400 Speaker 1: attack on the Muskva Right, Russia's flagship in the Black 29 00:01:42,440 --> 00:01:46,280 Speaker 1: Sea that Ukraine sank last month a terribly embarrassing moment 30 00:01:46,319 --> 00:01:48,760 Speaker 1: from Moscow. All this reported by The New York Times 31 00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:53,000 Speaker 1: and NBC News. But no, not quite. According to here, 32 00:01:53,120 --> 00:01:58,000 Speaker 1: Pentagon Press Secretary retired Rear Admiral John Kirby, do not 33 00:01:58,120 --> 00:02:01,120 Speaker 1: provide intelligence on the location of senior military leaders on 34 00:02:01,160 --> 00:02:04,000 Speaker 1: the battlefield or participate in the targeting decisions of the 35 00:02:04,120 --> 00:02:09,079 Speaker 1: Ukrainian military. Ukrainians have quite frankly, a lot more information 36 00:02:09,120 --> 00:02:13,240 Speaker 1: than we do. This is their country, their territory, and 37 00:02:13,240 --> 00:02:16,520 Speaker 1: they have capable intelligence collection abilities of their own talked 38 00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:18,880 Speaker 1: about it at length. We know that the US has 39 00:02:18,919 --> 00:02:22,320 Speaker 1: been providing intelligence to Ukraine. Kirby says that other nations 40 00:02:22,320 --> 00:02:26,560 Speaker 1: are also giving intel to Ukraine, which then makes decisions 41 00:02:26,919 --> 00:02:29,000 Speaker 1: on how to use it. This was echoed today by 42 00:02:29,080 --> 00:02:30,959 Speaker 1: Jen Psaki as well on Air Force One as the 43 00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:33,960 Speaker 1: President flew to Ohio. And we're lucky now to have 44 00:02:34,040 --> 00:02:37,079 Speaker 1: Senator Mark Warner join us again on Bloomberg Radio. Of course, 45 00:02:37,160 --> 00:02:41,080 Speaker 1: democrat from Virginia chairs the Intelligence Committee and also serves 46 00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:43,280 Speaker 1: and I think every other committee in the Senate, not 47 00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:46,959 Speaker 1: quite Banking, Budget, Finance and Rules. That's pretty close, and 48 00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:50,640 Speaker 1: was instrumental in helping Boeing relocate to the DC area. Senator, 49 00:02:50,680 --> 00:02:54,080 Speaker 1: welcome back to It's great to hear your voice. I 50 00:02:54,080 --> 00:02:55,960 Speaker 1: want to ask you about how this Boeing deal came together. 51 00:02:56,040 --> 00:02:59,320 Speaker 1: But first, are you concerned that these reports of intelligence 52 00:02:59,320 --> 00:03:03,920 Speaker 1: sharing will will be seen by Russia as an escalation? Well, 53 00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:08,760 Speaker 1: I'm not going to comment obviously on any specific report, 54 00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:13,080 Speaker 1: but I I do want to say that that American 55 00:03:13,120 --> 00:03:17,960 Speaker 1: intelligence at in combination with our allies, particularly the British, 56 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:22,760 Speaker 1: has been really forward leaning in this whole um Ukraine, 57 00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:25,320 Speaker 1: Russia conflict. Matter of fact, I think in a way 58 00:03:25,360 --> 00:03:31,639 Speaker 1: that deserves our admiration. Before the invasion, it was really 59 00:03:31,680 --> 00:03:36,280 Speaker 1: American and British intelligence that warned our Ukrainian friends, warned 60 00:03:36,320 --> 00:03:39,680 Speaker 1: the balance of NATO. Many of the Europeans who you 61 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:42,480 Speaker 1: know candidally a year ago after Mr Trump NATO was 62 00:03:42,520 --> 00:03:45,840 Speaker 1: pretty broken, had to be convinced, had to be assured. 63 00:03:46,280 --> 00:03:49,080 Speaker 1: I remember being at the Munich Security conferences recently as 64 00:03:49,160 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 1: a UM ten days before the invasion, and some of 65 00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:56,000 Speaker 1: our European allies were still unsure. But the forward leaning 66 00:03:56,280 --> 00:03:58,160 Speaker 1: and the willingness to share. And then on top of 67 00:03:58,200 --> 00:04:02,480 Speaker 1: that what happened was we saw repeatedly when and I 68 00:04:02,560 --> 00:04:06,200 Speaker 1: think this really put Putting off his game, there was 69 00:04:06,360 --> 00:04:08,800 Speaker 1: gonna be a Russian effort to create a coup in 70 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:12,600 Speaker 1: in Ukraine. American intelligence out of that, the British went 71 00:04:12,640 --> 00:04:15,360 Speaker 1: ahead and even named the Ukrainian that the Russians were 72 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:17,560 Speaker 1: gonna put in. There was before the war there was 73 00:04:17,560 --> 00:04:20,480 Speaker 1: going to be a a video that would look like 74 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:24,560 Speaker 1: it was showing Ukrainian and doing bad things. We expose 75 00:04:24,640 --> 00:04:28,040 Speaker 1: that as well. So I do think the forward leaning 76 00:04:28,160 --> 00:04:33,880 Speaker 1: nature of the of the American Intelligence Committee has been 77 00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:36,680 Speaker 1: very good in it, and it's been publicly reported repeatedly. 78 00:04:36,880 --> 00:04:40,320 Speaker 1: You know, the American intelligence and other intelligence focus on 79 00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:44,039 Speaker 1: the West are sharing with the Ukrainians who don cannibally 80 00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:47,159 Speaker 1: a better job than think any of us expected, incredibly effective, 81 00:04:47,240 --> 00:04:50,120 Speaker 1: but you reject them. This idea that this is being 82 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:53,760 Speaker 1: framed now is as a proxy war between the US 83 00:04:53,800 --> 00:04:56,760 Speaker 1: and Russia. On some of the reports that have hit 84 00:04:56,800 --> 00:05:00,280 Speaker 1: the news in the last um, you know, two or 85 00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:03,880 Speaker 1: three days, UH have a level of specificity that I 86 00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:08,080 Speaker 1: don't think gotta be um running around, But the ben 87 00:05:08,279 --> 00:05:13,760 Speaker 1: the general basis that we ought to be sharing with 88 00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:17,000 Speaker 1: our our Ukrainian allies, that the very people who are 89 00:05:17,040 --> 00:05:21,240 Speaker 1: literally um sending now close to billions of dollars of 90 00:05:21,320 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 1: military aid too. I think, uh, I think that intelligence 91 00:05:25,480 --> 00:05:27,440 Speaker 1: along with that military aid is one of the reasons 92 00:05:27,480 --> 00:05:30,080 Speaker 1: why the the Ukrainians are doing so well. And let 93 00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:33,040 Speaker 1: me be clear that this is not an American only item. 94 00:05:33,360 --> 00:05:37,160 Speaker 1: We have you know, lots and lots of countries, countries 95 00:05:37,920 --> 00:05:40,520 Speaker 1: around Europe and frankly even beyond Europe. I mean our 96 00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:42,920 Speaker 1: Canadian friends you know even are similar. Our friends and 97 00:05:43,000 --> 00:05:45,480 Speaker 1: Asia are sending other assistance to Ukraine. This really is 98 00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:48,640 Speaker 1: in my mind, so much bigger than simply Ukraine versus Russia. 99 00:05:48,839 --> 00:05:51,960 Speaker 1: This is really whether the alliance of democracies around the 100 00:05:51,960 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 1: world will stand up to this kind of authoritary and 101 00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:57,039 Speaker 1: therefore not the US versus Russia. I guess it's your point. Yeah, 102 00:05:57,040 --> 00:05:59,360 Speaker 1: I think that is that is not that this isn't 103 00:05:59,360 --> 00:06:04,320 Speaker 1: a This is a an alliance of democracies against authoritarian regimes. Now, 104 00:06:04,360 --> 00:06:07,080 Speaker 1: am I concerned that Russia is, you know, making a 105 00:06:07,279 --> 00:06:11,440 Speaker 1: even stronger ties with the Communist Party in China? Yes, 106 00:06:11,480 --> 00:06:15,440 Speaker 1: but I think that kind of authoritarian alliance um was 107 00:06:15,520 --> 00:06:18,520 Speaker 1: in existence before this war and on. At the end 108 00:06:18,520 --> 00:06:20,680 Speaker 1: of the day, I think we're also gonna have to 109 00:06:20,960 --> 00:06:23,919 Speaker 1: we we are facing, predicting on the economic challenges with 110 00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:28,000 Speaker 1: China that are extraordinarily great Sounder. We've been anticipating the 111 00:06:28,000 --> 00:06:32,080 Speaker 1: battle for the dun Boss to get severe for a 112 00:06:32,080 --> 00:06:34,360 Speaker 1: few weeks. Now. Is it possible Congress can pass this 113 00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:37,560 Speaker 1: thirty three billion dollar aid request from the President before 114 00:06:37,680 --> 00:06:42,040 Speaker 1: that battle is decided? Absolutely, Joe. Matter of fact, if 115 00:06:42,040 --> 00:06:44,880 Speaker 1: we don't, it would be horribly irresponsible of us. I 116 00:06:44,920 --> 00:06:47,680 Speaker 1: was hoping that we could have passed this aid, you know, 117 00:06:47,920 --> 00:06:51,160 Speaker 1: so that we could have had the passage of it 118 00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:55,760 Speaker 1: take place before May nine, which in Soviet slash Russian 119 00:06:55,760 --> 00:06:57,680 Speaker 1: history is a very important day. It was the celebration 120 00:06:57,760 --> 00:07:01,520 Speaker 1: of the Soviet overcoming the Nazis. Um And let me 121 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:04,040 Speaker 1: make two quick points on this. One is in this 122 00:07:04,160 --> 00:07:06,520 Speaker 1: thirty three billion and you know, a big chunk of 123 00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:10,280 Speaker 1: its defense, a big chunk of its humanitarian economic But 124 00:07:10,360 --> 00:07:13,640 Speaker 1: if you take the defense component, and you take also 125 00:07:13,760 --> 00:07:16,880 Speaker 1: the previous thirteen point three, which I believe was mostly defense, 126 00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:21,440 Speaker 1: and then you add in the Europeans UH commitment on defense, 127 00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:24,880 Speaker 1: which is not quite you know, fifty fifty with us 128 00:07:24,880 --> 00:07:28,880 Speaker 1: we're slightly more. But you add that together and you're 129 00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:32,160 Speaker 1: talking about total Western aid to Ukraine in the forty 130 00:07:32,200 --> 00:07:36,280 Speaker 1: to fifty billion dollar category almost since the beginning of 131 00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:39,560 Speaker 1: the war. And Russia has only got a defense budget 132 00:07:39,600 --> 00:07:43,920 Speaker 1: about sixties six billions. So you know, this also sends 133 00:07:43,920 --> 00:07:46,640 Speaker 1: a signal to Putin and the Russian leadership that you know, 134 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:50,360 Speaker 1: the West is not going to walk away from this commitment. 135 00:07:50,680 --> 00:07:55,040 Speaker 1: I do think the Russians, in terms of their military tactics, 136 00:07:55,880 --> 00:08:00,480 Speaker 1: they have been UH in Ukraine. I think luck because 137 00:08:00,520 --> 00:08:02,560 Speaker 1: their nose has been bloodied so many times when the 138 00:08:02,840 --> 00:08:06,400 Speaker 1: battle around Key for example, that that that battle for 139 00:08:06,400 --> 00:08:09,160 Speaker 1: the dom Bass hasn't been as fully engaged yet. But 140 00:08:09,200 --> 00:08:12,080 Speaker 1: I think it would be critical if there is a 141 00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:14,160 Speaker 1: a single major battle, which I'm not sure there's gonna 142 00:08:14,200 --> 00:08:16,000 Speaker 1: be maybe a bit of a war of attrition now, 143 00:08:16,240 --> 00:08:18,880 Speaker 1: but that we get that aid. It's important in terms 144 00:08:18,960 --> 00:08:21,840 Speaker 1: of assistance to the Ukrainians. It's important to keep you know, 145 00:08:21,880 --> 00:08:24,280 Speaker 1: making sure that that is a signal to our European 146 00:08:24,280 --> 00:08:26,840 Speaker 1: friends that they need to continue to produce. But most importantly, 147 00:08:26,840 --> 00:08:29,520 Speaker 1: it's a signal to Putin that he is not going 148 00:08:29,560 --> 00:08:32,640 Speaker 1: to be successful in his effort. You mentioned May nine 149 00:08:32,679 --> 00:08:34,840 Speaker 1: before I move on. Do we need to worry about Monday? 150 00:08:34,920 --> 00:08:38,280 Speaker 1: What could that mean for the war? Um, that's a 151 00:08:38,320 --> 00:08:42,480 Speaker 1: great question. I had thought six weeks ago that that 152 00:08:43,120 --> 00:08:45,800 Speaker 1: May nine might have been a time where Putin could 153 00:08:45,800 --> 00:08:49,520 Speaker 1: have taken some whatever he could have found as some 154 00:08:49,720 --> 00:08:52,480 Speaker 1: level of success and use that as a way to 155 00:08:52,760 --> 00:08:56,119 Speaker 1: kind of end the conflict. Clearly he's not been successful, 156 00:08:56,160 --> 00:09:00,360 Speaker 1: like uh, you know, so I don't think a ninth 157 00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:03,640 Speaker 1: is going to have anything significant other than what uh 158 00:09:03,800 --> 00:09:07,040 Speaker 1: Putin might might do. There's been speculation, and I'm not 159 00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:09,080 Speaker 1: sure if there's been speculation that he might make a 160 00:09:09,080 --> 00:09:12,240 Speaker 1: formal declaration of war against Russia against Ukraine, which would 161 00:09:12,240 --> 00:09:14,960 Speaker 1: allow him to call up all of his reserves. Um, 162 00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:17,000 Speaker 1: there's been some concern that he might take part of 163 00:09:17,000 --> 00:09:21,160 Speaker 1: the territory he's captured and you know, announced some kind 164 00:09:21,160 --> 00:09:23,640 Speaker 1: of public site that would be phony, but would try 165 00:09:23,640 --> 00:09:26,920 Speaker 1: to take those parts and absorb them into uh into 166 00:09:26,960 --> 00:09:29,800 Speaker 1: Russia or some of the rump republics. Um. I gotta 167 00:09:29,840 --> 00:09:32,439 Speaker 1: believe he's gonna do something, but I'm not sure we 168 00:09:32,520 --> 00:09:35,439 Speaker 1: have a a great idea what that may be. We're 169 00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:38,680 Speaker 1: going to find out together. Senator Boeing is moving to 170 00:09:38,880 --> 00:09:44,080 Speaker 1: the Washington area, more specifically northern Virginia from Chicago, a 171 00:09:44,120 --> 00:09:47,120 Speaker 1: move that you encouraged some time ago. Reports Save Virginia 172 00:09:47,200 --> 00:09:53,760 Speaker 1: is not providing financial incentive. So why is Boeing cunning? Well, One, 173 00:09:54,280 --> 00:09:58,520 Speaker 1: we've had a good history in Virginia over the last 174 00:09:58,600 --> 00:10:02,000 Speaker 1: number of years of being probos nous of recruiting companies. 175 00:10:02,320 --> 00:10:04,200 Speaker 1: I worked for six years to get north of Grumman 176 00:10:04,280 --> 00:10:08,880 Speaker 1: the move from California to Virginia. Next Lee Corporation, you know, 177 00:10:08,920 --> 00:10:11,240 Speaker 1: in terms of North America, move their headquarters here. Obviously, 178 00:10:11,280 --> 00:10:14,640 Speaker 1: Amazon made a huge splash a year plus ago when 179 00:10:14,640 --> 00:10:17,800 Speaker 1: they announced, Um, you know, this is not going to 180 00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:21,200 Speaker 1: be a huge number of jobs per se. Oh, they'll 181 00:10:21,240 --> 00:10:24,160 Speaker 1: be obviously high paying jobs. But I think it's it's 182 00:10:24,200 --> 00:10:27,480 Speaker 1: significant in that we've had a pretty darn good track 183 00:10:27,480 --> 00:10:30,560 Speaker 1: record of offering good quality of life, good schools, you know, 184 00:10:30,679 --> 00:10:33,160 Speaker 1: a pro business environment. One of the things that didn't 185 00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:36,240 Speaker 1: get as much attention that I'm as excited about as 186 00:10:36,280 --> 00:10:40,360 Speaker 1: the uh the international headquarters are Boing, which is the 187 00:10:40,400 --> 00:10:43,840 Speaker 1: fact that Boeing is also going to launch a research 188 00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:47,120 Speaker 1: and development center in Northern Virginia. And with all the 189 00:10:47,200 --> 00:10:50,560 Speaker 1: things taking place in aviation and drones and all the 190 00:10:50,640 --> 00:10:55,640 Speaker 1: various touch points that aerospace touches across the whole variety 191 00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:59,640 Speaker 1: of fields, that R and D investment in Northern Virginia 192 00:10:59,679 --> 00:11:02,800 Speaker 1: may ten years from now be a much more significant 193 00:11:03,440 --> 00:11:06,240 Speaker 1: addition to this the region's economy into Virginia's economy that 194 00:11:06,360 --> 00:11:08,839 Speaker 1: actually even the headquarters does this speak as well to 195 00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:11,680 Speaker 1: Boeing's increased exposure to defense. More than half its sales 196 00:11:11,760 --> 00:11:15,680 Speaker 1: last year came from military contracts. You know. Uh, A 197 00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:17,760 Speaker 1: number of folks have said to do they want to 198 00:11:17,800 --> 00:11:21,600 Speaker 1: be closer to the regulator's d D too. Capitol Hill. Um, 199 00:11:21,800 --> 00:11:25,720 Speaker 1: you know, I'm not sure. The truth is, you know, 200 00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:28,679 Speaker 1: if a company moves closer here, oftentimes they want to 201 00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:31,840 Speaker 1: try to raise their profile. UM. Frankly, you know, Boeing 202 00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:34,320 Speaker 1: is a well well known entity. They do need to 203 00:11:34,360 --> 00:11:35,880 Speaker 1: raise their profile. A matter of fact, they've got to. 204 00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:38,120 Speaker 1: I think they've still got some corrective work to do 205 00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:40,880 Speaker 1: in terms of some of the failures and uh they had. 206 00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:43,480 Speaker 1: And I do think the new management team that Boeing 207 00:11:43,520 --> 00:11:46,960 Speaker 1: is really taking that head on. UM. And I'm not 208 00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:51,040 Speaker 1: sure at times as a former governor, UM, when I 209 00:11:51,040 --> 00:11:54,840 Speaker 1: was pitching Virginia, you being close to those of us 210 00:11:55,320 --> 00:11:57,120 Speaker 1: at the Capitol, I'm not sure we're that the good 211 00:11:57,160 --> 00:11:59,960 Speaker 1: news item or a bad news item. But I think 212 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:01,840 Speaker 1: end of the day, at least in my conversations with 213 00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:04,720 Speaker 1: the Boeing management, it was about quality of life. It 214 00:12:04,800 --> 00:12:07,360 Speaker 1: was about the you know, the management team, this is 215 00:12:07,360 --> 00:12:10,560 Speaker 1: a good area. It was also about attracting a diverse 216 00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:13,760 Speaker 1: set of talent. One of the things that Boeing has said, 217 00:12:14,040 --> 00:12:16,040 Speaker 1: both in the management level and I think on the 218 00:12:16,080 --> 00:12:18,920 Speaker 1: technology level, you know, engineering and elsewhere, they want to 219 00:12:18,920 --> 00:12:21,840 Speaker 1: make sure they're moving towards a more diverse workforce, and 220 00:12:21,920 --> 00:12:25,480 Speaker 1: the greater Washington business community has really worked very closely 221 00:12:25,520 --> 00:12:28,120 Speaker 1: with UH. You know a number of our universities, from 222 00:12:28,200 --> 00:12:31,400 Speaker 1: Howard to George Mason in in UH Northern Virginia, which 223 00:12:32,040 --> 00:12:35,320 Speaker 1: Virginia Tech, where UM, the CEO of Boeing has served 224 00:12:35,400 --> 00:12:38,760 Speaker 1: on a and served with me actually on a innovation 225 00:12:38,880 --> 00:12:41,520 Speaker 1: board as Virginia Tech tries to grow its presence in 226 00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:44,480 Speaker 1: Northern Virginia. I'm sure you know. Just this week, the 227 00:12:44,520 --> 00:12:47,920 Speaker 1: families of the victims of the two seven thirty seven 228 00:12:47,920 --> 00:12:51,400 Speaker 1: Max crashes as to judge in Texas to overturn Boeing 229 00:12:51,440 --> 00:12:55,439 Speaker 1: settlement with the government. UH. They say they were short 230 00:12:55,520 --> 00:12:57,440 Speaker 1: changed because it was handled as a fraud case, not 231 00:12:57,480 --> 00:12:59,680 Speaker 1: a criminal case. Do you think that settlement was fair? 232 00:13:00,559 --> 00:13:04,680 Speaker 1: You know, Joe, I don't. I've I've read as a 233 00:13:05,480 --> 00:13:09,920 Speaker 1: as I think most of us have followed this UM story. 234 00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:15,719 Speaker 1: Obviously it was a you know, huge tragedies and this 235 00:13:15,840 --> 00:13:18,320 Speaker 1: was more than one plane that went down. But I 236 00:13:18,400 --> 00:13:21,480 Speaker 1: candidly don't know enough of the specifics of this settlement 237 00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:25,440 Speaker 1: to make that kind of judgment. Senator, It's great to 238 00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:27,720 Speaker 1: have you with us on Bloomberg Sound On as we 239 00:13:27,760 --> 00:13:30,800 Speaker 1: wait to find out what unfolds on Monday. Your voice 240 00:13:30,840 --> 00:13:33,160 Speaker 1: on all of this, in your view from the Intelligence Committee, 241 00:13:33,240 --> 00:13:35,560 Speaker 1: is very important to us at Bloomberg. Senator Mark Warner, 242 00:13:35,960 --> 00:13:39,960 Speaker 1: Democrat from Virginia, thank you, sir, Sheriff, Senate Intelligence Finance, 243 00:13:40,240 --> 00:13:44,400 Speaker 1: Banking in Rules member. It is quite a business card. 244 00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:49,640 Speaker 1: After today's jobs data, we bring in Jared Bernstein of 245 00:13:49,679 --> 00:13:52,480 Speaker 1: the White House Council of Economic Advisors for his take 246 00:13:52,679 --> 00:13:58,200 Speaker 1: on all of this. Jared, welcome back to Bloomberg. Well, 247 00:13:58,200 --> 00:14:00,680 Speaker 1: thanks so much for inviting me back. Always a pleasure 248 00:14:00,679 --> 00:14:02,760 Speaker 1: to share ideas here. And we've we've got a big 249 00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:05,000 Speaker 1: jobs report on our hands that I'd like to start with. 250 00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:07,439 Speaker 1: The headline is stronger than expected. It's a big number. 251 00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:10,720 Speaker 1: The President says, this all adds up to eight point 252 00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:14,920 Speaker 1: three million jobs since he took office. So, Jared, why 253 00:14:14,920 --> 00:14:17,600 Speaker 1: do people seem so downbeat right now? Does does everything 254 00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:21,200 Speaker 1: come back to inflation at this time? We look, there's 255 00:14:21,640 --> 00:14:25,040 Speaker 1: definitely elevated inflation in the system, and the President talks 256 00:14:25,080 --> 00:14:28,320 Speaker 1: about what a challenge that is for household budgets every 257 00:14:28,360 --> 00:14:31,240 Speaker 1: time he speaks, So no one's giving that short shrift 258 00:14:31,280 --> 00:14:34,960 Speaker 1: at all. But we also have to be extremely mindful 259 00:14:35,000 --> 00:14:39,120 Speaker 1: of the backdrop to support the strength of the American 260 00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:43,120 Speaker 1: household and business sector as well. Certainly the job support 261 00:14:43,160 --> 00:14:45,560 Speaker 1: today is in focus. But if we look at household 262 00:14:45,640 --> 00:14:48,720 Speaker 1: balance sheets, if we look at debt service, if we 263 00:14:48,760 --> 00:14:52,320 Speaker 1: look at people's net worth, if we look at business starts, 264 00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:55,640 Speaker 1: and I can keep going. I think that the broader 265 00:14:55,720 --> 00:15:01,120 Speaker 1: point is that while inflation is very much upon the land, 266 00:15:01,160 --> 00:15:05,040 Speaker 1: and we're doing everything we can to ameliorate that burden 267 00:15:05,240 --> 00:15:09,680 Speaker 1: on household budgets, it's not the only factor in play 268 00:15:09,720 --> 00:15:12,920 Speaker 1: in today's economy. Much has been said about the participation 269 00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:15,800 Speaker 1: rate in the job market is I just want to 270 00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:18,600 Speaker 1: stick on this job's report for one minute. Here with 271 00:15:18,760 --> 00:15:22,040 Speaker 1: two job openings, as you well know, Jared, for every 272 00:15:22,080 --> 00:15:25,160 Speaker 1: American that does not have one. Bloomberg spoke earlier today 273 00:15:25,160 --> 00:15:27,400 Speaker 1: with Labor Secretary Marty Walsh. Here's what he had to 274 00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:29,600 Speaker 1: say about that. The question is, if we have twelve 275 00:15:29,600 --> 00:15:32,240 Speaker 1: million jobs opening, six million people roughly looking for work, 276 00:15:32,320 --> 00:15:34,280 Speaker 1: why shouldn't they be able to find a job. And 277 00:15:34,280 --> 00:15:35,920 Speaker 1: I think we have to do a little diver look 278 00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:39,240 Speaker 1: into that number regionally to see exactly what the reason is. 279 00:15:39,280 --> 00:15:41,520 Speaker 1: I mean, are people under skilled do we need to 280 00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:44,280 Speaker 1: scale them up? Are they really looking for work? How 281 00:15:44,320 --> 00:15:45,840 Speaker 1: do we do how do we encourage them to get 282 00:15:45,880 --> 00:15:48,200 Speaker 1: to work. What's your thought on that, Jared, Is there 283 00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:51,760 Speaker 1: a simple answer or is it more complex than that? Well, 284 00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:55,480 Speaker 1: I think Secretary Walsh has long been an advocate of 285 00:15:55,600 --> 00:15:58,520 Speaker 1: making sure that workers get all the supports they need 286 00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:00,880 Speaker 1: to get the best job they can. And in fact, 287 00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:04,320 Speaker 1: in those same data that show the increased vacancies, you 288 00:16:04,440 --> 00:16:08,040 Speaker 1: do see elevated quit rates. Now, sometimes people have quit 289 00:16:08,120 --> 00:16:09,920 Speaker 1: rates and think, wow, that must be a bad thing 290 00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:12,480 Speaker 1: for working people. In fact, what we know is that 291 00:16:12,520 --> 00:16:15,800 Speaker 1: those people are upgrading their jobs, They're getting better jobs, 292 00:16:16,080 --> 00:16:17,840 Speaker 1: and that's one of the things that happen when you 293 00:16:17,920 --> 00:16:21,760 Speaker 1: have so many vacancies. So I think part of what's 294 00:16:21,800 --> 00:16:24,600 Speaker 1: going on here is we just have a very strong 295 00:16:24,680 --> 00:16:28,960 Speaker 1: consumer demand, very strong business investment climate. We saw that 296 00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:31,280 Speaker 1: even by the way in the first quarter g d P. 297 00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:33,960 Speaker 1: Now that I've had a negative handle having to do 298 00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:36,720 Speaker 1: with imports and inventories, but you got under the hood 299 00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:40,680 Speaker 1: and looked at the consumer spending. The investment still very strong, 300 00:16:40,720 --> 00:16:42,840 Speaker 1: and that's creating strong labor demand as we spun on 301 00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:45,960 Speaker 1: today's report. So the question then becomes, if we extend 302 00:16:45,960 --> 00:16:48,680 Speaker 1: this little bit, Jared, is how long can that phenomenon last? 303 00:16:48,760 --> 00:16:51,480 Speaker 1: Now that the FETE has begun tightening. What's your view 304 00:16:51,520 --> 00:16:54,200 Speaker 1: on the second half of this year. Do you expect 305 00:16:54,240 --> 00:16:57,960 Speaker 1: to see demand destruction and then would that be followed 306 00:16:57,960 --> 00:17:00,520 Speaker 1: by layoffs as corporations begin to with just to this 307 00:17:00,560 --> 00:17:03,720 Speaker 1: new interest rate environment. Well, certainly, one of the things 308 00:17:03,720 --> 00:17:06,119 Speaker 1: that we're trying to do here at the White House 309 00:17:06,680 --> 00:17:09,600 Speaker 1: is helped to ease some of the supply constraints so 310 00:17:09,640 --> 00:17:13,720 Speaker 1: that we maintain strong demand but bring up supply in 311 00:17:13,760 --> 00:17:16,720 Speaker 1: the sense of, for example, our work at the ports 312 00:17:17,119 --> 00:17:21,680 Speaker 1: supply chains, implementing the Infrastructure Law, trying to go further 313 00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:24,960 Speaker 1: and get Congress to pass the Bipartisan Innovation Act with 314 00:17:25,000 --> 00:17:28,240 Speaker 1: a deep investment in semiconductors. That's more of a medium 315 00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:32,000 Speaker 1: term play. So if we can increase the economy supply 316 00:17:32,119 --> 00:17:35,439 Speaker 1: side from where we are, we think that we can 317 00:17:35,560 --> 00:17:38,600 Speaker 1: help maintain some of the growth that we're seeing while 318 00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:42,159 Speaker 1: easing inflationary pressure. So if I can get philosophical with 319 00:17:42,200 --> 00:17:43,879 Speaker 1: you for a minute, and I know you love to 320 00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:46,080 Speaker 1: do that, I want to ask you about the causes 321 00:17:46,520 --> 00:17:49,360 Speaker 1: of inflation. This is the big conversation right now in Washington, 322 00:17:49,359 --> 00:17:53,040 Speaker 1: and I guess nationally Republicans say it's because the administration 323 00:17:53,119 --> 00:17:55,240 Speaker 1: spent too much on stimulus coming out of COVID, and 324 00:17:55,240 --> 00:17:57,919 Speaker 1: they've even said that about the prior administration. But the 325 00:17:57,960 --> 00:18:00,639 Speaker 1: White House, the Biden White House, is consistently pointed to 326 00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:03,240 Speaker 1: the shift in demand for goods during the pandemic from 327 00:18:03,280 --> 00:18:07,040 Speaker 1: services to goods, and supply chain problems that came from 328 00:18:07,080 --> 00:18:10,200 Speaker 1: the pandemic a global phenomenon, not something we likely could 329 00:18:10,240 --> 00:18:13,840 Speaker 1: have managed on our own here. Do you believe, though, 330 00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:16,320 Speaker 1: that the stimulus spending made it worse? In other words, 331 00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:20,920 Speaker 1: is everyone right? You know? Interestingly, I think we've already 332 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:25,399 Speaker 1: implicitly answered this question our conversation so far. We've talked 333 00:18:25,400 --> 00:18:29,959 Speaker 1: about two things. Very strong demand consumer sector, household sector, 334 00:18:30,760 --> 00:18:34,680 Speaker 1: corporate sector. Very strong labor market. Of course you saw 335 00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:39,400 Speaker 1: today's report, um and still some issues on the supply side. 336 00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:43,440 Speaker 1: Still constrained supply, whether it's supply chains, labor, supply coming back, 337 00:18:43,520 --> 00:18:45,800 Speaker 1: but not not what we'd like to like it to be. 338 00:18:46,040 --> 00:18:48,919 Speaker 1: And I think the inflation is best understood as strong 339 00:18:48,960 --> 00:18:54,560 Speaker 1: demand hits constrained supply equals elevated prices. Now look are, 340 00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:57,360 Speaker 1: but that means it would have happened without the stimulus spending. 341 00:18:57,440 --> 00:19:00,479 Speaker 1: Is that your view? Well, I think one one easy 342 00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:03,600 Speaker 1: answer to that is to look at Europe. Okay, they 343 00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:05,800 Speaker 1: did some fiscal policy, but they didn't do the American 344 00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:10,320 Speaker 1: rescue plan. So they're looking at inflation rates of seven 345 00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:13,440 Speaker 1: point five percent with the March read and the EU 346 00:19:13,560 --> 00:19:16,080 Speaker 1: that's in the store high for them. If you look 347 00:19:16,080 --> 00:19:18,439 Speaker 1: at Canada, if you look at France, Italy, just US 348 00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:22,400 Speaker 1: across countries, he's going to see elevated inflation. And and look, 349 00:19:22,440 --> 00:19:24,600 Speaker 1: we didn't all do the same fiscal policy, but we 350 00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:27,199 Speaker 1: all had the same pandemic. So that gives you a 351 00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:30,560 Speaker 1: sense of one of the core factors there. And if 352 00:19:30,560 --> 00:19:34,200 Speaker 1: demand and supply chains then are the real drivers of inflation. 353 00:19:34,920 --> 00:19:38,080 Speaker 1: Do you worry about hiking rates in this environment, you know, 354 00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:41,119 Speaker 1: the sort of sledge hammer approach? Or is that the 355 00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:45,160 Speaker 1: only way to dampen demand for goods? I would imagine 356 00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:49,600 Speaker 1: everyone who's paying attention to all the dynamics we're talking about, 357 00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:54,800 Speaker 1: fiscal policy, monetary policy, the underlying macro economic conditions as 358 00:19:54,800 --> 00:19:59,560 Speaker 1: we've described them, recognizes that the FED needed to pivot 359 00:19:59,600 --> 00:20:02,520 Speaker 1: and they on so Now, interestingly, the President of the 360 00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:06,159 Speaker 1: United States has made that same comment. He has supported 361 00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:09,800 Speaker 1: the Fed's action. Of course, he's uh nominated and renominated 362 00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:14,960 Speaker 1: a great slate of nominees for Congress to confirm as 363 00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:18,840 Speaker 1: quickly as possible. UH and uh and so I don't 364 00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:21,720 Speaker 1: think there's any question that in this environment, the stead 365 00:20:21,840 --> 00:20:27,040 Speaker 1: is the first and foremost institution fighting against this elevated inflation, 366 00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:29,320 Speaker 1: and they're going at it. They certainly are. I guess 367 00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:31,280 Speaker 1: I just you know, I'm trying to get to this 368 00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:34,040 Speaker 1: in a slightly different way. If if supply chain is 369 00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:36,640 Speaker 1: the problem, and fixing the supply chain is the solution, 370 00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:39,680 Speaker 1: right as opposed to just across the board hiking rates 371 00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:42,600 Speaker 1: and causing the incredible level of fear that we're seeing 372 00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:45,400 Speaker 1: now on Wall Street. Well, I think if I've I've 373 00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:48,359 Speaker 1: tried to articulate that we have very strong demand and 374 00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:51,120 Speaker 1: we also have constraints supply. Now, the SEAT is going 375 00:20:51,160 --> 00:20:54,680 Speaker 1: to come at this using their tools, which more work 376 00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:56,560 Speaker 1: on the demand side. We're going to come at this 377 00:20:56,720 --> 00:20:59,840 Speaker 1: using our tools, and our tools happened to be our 378 00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 1: work at the ports, are work trying to increase trucking, 379 00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:07,200 Speaker 1: bringing down costs like drug and healthcare costs. So you're 380 00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:10,400 Speaker 1: already doing it, is your point. Yeah, but but there's 381 00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:13,199 Speaker 1: much more for us to do. So, for example, affordable housing, 382 00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:19,280 Speaker 1: this is actually a key um Biden administrative administration agenda. 383 00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:23,520 Speaker 1: We recognize the constraints in the housing market, and shelters 384 00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:28,040 Speaker 1: about a third of the of the CPI. So this 385 00:21:28,119 --> 00:21:30,600 Speaker 1: is in our budget. So this is a legislative initiative. 386 00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:32,760 Speaker 1: But we also have things we can do administratively on 387 00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:36,359 Speaker 1: that front to help increase the supply of affordable housing, 388 00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:38,199 Speaker 1: and we're doing them. Okay, one other thing in this 389 00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:40,200 Speaker 1: I know you. You and I have talked about this 390 00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:43,880 Speaker 1: a lot before. Earlier this week, the President talked about 391 00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:46,440 Speaker 1: the fact that the deficit was expected to come down 392 00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:50,480 Speaker 1: one point five trillion this year. Now, if you just 393 00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:53,680 Speaker 1: do the simple macroeconomics and you write out g d 394 00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:57,600 Speaker 1: P consumption plus investment, etcetera at the end of that equation, 395 00:21:57,720 --> 00:22:02,800 Speaker 1: Yet government spending that kind of a fistical contraction is 396 00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:06,320 Speaker 1: what the economists called negative fiscal impulse. That too, should 397 00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:09,720 Speaker 1: serve to help dampen some inflationary pressure. So I think 398 00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:12,320 Speaker 1: we can look at deficit reduction in that regard as well. 399 00:22:12,400 --> 00:22:14,480 Speaker 1: One of the big concerns lately has been a recession. 400 00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:18,199 Speaker 1: Instead of asking you today about the R word and 401 00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:20,520 Speaker 1: what do you think the odds are, I want to 402 00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:23,280 Speaker 1: ask you about the S word. As I read on 403 00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:28,359 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg stagflation threat sends credit risk auges soaring globally, Jared, 404 00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:30,080 Speaker 1: how likely is it that we will see a period 405 00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:33,760 Speaker 1: of stagflation? Well, look, I'm old enough to remember the 406 00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:38,120 Speaker 1: misery index, which is the unemployment rate plus inflation. Obviously, 407 00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:40,840 Speaker 1: the second factor in that calculation is elevated, but the 408 00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:44,040 Speaker 1: first is anything but. And so we have a three 409 00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:47,399 Speaker 1: point six percent unemployment rate. We have a pace of 410 00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:52,359 Speaker 1: job gains that, by some metrics is historically unmatched. Jared, 411 00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:54,720 Speaker 1: I wish we had more time as always, uh, And 412 00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:56,640 Speaker 1: I know you'll come back. I hope you will soon. 413 00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:59,880 Speaker 1: Of the White House Council of Economic Advisors. Here one 414 00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:04,040 Speaker 1: ount on the fastest hour in politics coming up or 415 00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:07,520 Speaker 1: joined by Bloomberg opinion columnist Julianna Goldman, who says DEMOCRATSY 416 00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:11,639 Speaker 1: don't organize to win the fight for row. This is Bloomberg. 417 00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:15,760 Speaker 1: Senator Schumer says it's coming next week, the legislation to 418 00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:19,600 Speaker 1: codify Roe V. Wade as law of the land. He 419 00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:22,760 Speaker 1: announced his plan from the floor of the Senate this week. 420 00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:28,600 Speaker 1: This is about to change. Next week the U. S. 421 00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:31,520 Speaker 1: Senator is going to vote on legislation to codify a 422 00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:36,119 Speaker 1: woman's right to seek an abortion into federal law. I 423 00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:40,120 Speaker 1: intend to file cloture on this vital legislation Monday, which 424 00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:44,439 Speaker 1: would set up a vote for Wednesday. Republicans will have 425 00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:48,639 Speaker 1: two choices. They can own the destruction of women's rights, 426 00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:52,720 Speaker 1: where they can reverse course and work to prevent the damage. 427 00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:55,960 Speaker 1: To be more precise, that was from the briefing that 428 00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:59,760 Speaker 1: follows upstairs. Now, this, of course, after the big league 429 00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:04,159 Speaker 1: of the draft opinion showing the Supreme Court poise to 430 00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:07,200 Speaker 1: invalidate Roe v. Wade. The conventional wisdom has been that 431 00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:09,640 Speaker 1: this is gonna help Democrats in the mid terms by 432 00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:15,520 Speaker 1: mobilizing voters right big turnout, especially suburban women. But it's 433 00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:19,679 Speaker 1: not likely. That's simple and Bloomberg Opinion columnist Julianna Goldman 434 00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:22,560 Speaker 1: gets to this in her latest column. She joins us 435 00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:24,640 Speaker 1: now to talk about it. Juliana, thank you for being here. 436 00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:27,520 Speaker 1: I've been looking forward to our conversation. You say Democrats 437 00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:31,680 Speaker 1: need to take a page from Stacy Abram's playbook. Which 438 00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:38,600 Speaker 1: page do they all? All of them? All the pages? Joe, 439 00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:42,119 Speaker 1: thanks for having me on. I I really appreciate the time. Um. No, 440 00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:46,560 Speaker 1: but look we see, uh, reproductive rights groups are calling 441 00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:49,439 Speaker 1: from May fourteenth, there is this big day of action. 442 00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:53,159 Speaker 1: We're going to see UM protests and rallies on the 443 00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:58,159 Speaker 1: scale of the Women's March back in UM. And that 444 00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:01,719 Speaker 1: is you know, that is all fine and good, and 445 00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:07,480 Speaker 1: the energy and anger and the passion needs to be harnessed. Um, 446 00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:11,840 Speaker 1: But there's a lifetime between now and November. And UM. 447 00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:14,479 Speaker 1: You know, this isn't just about mobilizing, but it's going 448 00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:19,200 Speaker 1: to be about organizing. And historically Republicans and the pro 449 00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:23,520 Speaker 1: life movement have done a better job on the organizing front, 450 00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:28,040 Speaker 1: case in point, electing lawmakers who are going to appoint 451 00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:32,880 Speaker 1: conservative justices the Supreme Court to overturn roguers. Just way 452 00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:35,400 Speaker 1: to explain what you mean or if you can articulate 453 00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:38,720 Speaker 1: the difference between mobilizing and organizing, because I think a 454 00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:40,920 Speaker 1: lot of people consider them the same thing. Yeah, you 455 00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:46,640 Speaker 1: in politics and and talking about elections, you use them interchangeably, right, 456 00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:50,320 Speaker 1: But mobilizing is you know, getting people out getting them 457 00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:55,199 Speaker 1: on the streets, getting them UM to the polls. But 458 00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:59,800 Speaker 1: organizing is really about getting in deep on the ground, 459 00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:04,240 Speaker 1: getting the people who aren't likely to vote or haven't 460 00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:08,320 Speaker 1: voted before. UM, you know, not just focusing as you said, 461 00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:13,919 Speaker 1: on the suburban voters, but going into rural areas, UM, 462 00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:18,240 Speaker 1: going into um, you know, to less educated, less affluent, 463 00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:22,679 Speaker 1: more underserved communities, and explaining to the people. And in 464 00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:26,080 Speaker 1: this case, you know, I quote I show in the piece, 465 00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:30,720 Speaker 1: UM that you know, half half Americans don't know what 466 00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:34,399 Speaker 1: the laws are in their states when it comes to 467 00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:39,280 Speaker 1: access to abortion and reproductive just stunning for such a 468 00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:43,920 Speaker 1: controversial issue it is. And also UM, you know, knowing 469 00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:48,160 Speaker 1: and understanding that the people who are going to be 470 00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:52,400 Speaker 1: impacted most severely from Row versus you know, from Row 471 00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:57,880 Speaker 1: being overturned are the more hard to reach UM voters 472 00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:01,240 Speaker 1: or people who have not voted before, and they're the 473 00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:05,600 Speaker 1: ones who really need to be organized, UM and tapped into. 474 00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:09,400 Speaker 1: You covered Washington for a long time, you understand Capitol 475 00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:13,760 Speaker 1: Hill and the politics behind this. If this polls a 476 00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:17,320 Speaker 1: majority of Americans do not want Roe v. Wade to 477 00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:21,119 Speaker 1: be overturned, then how come this is such a heavy 478 00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:23,680 Speaker 1: lift for Chuck Schumer. He does not have the votes 479 00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:26,920 Speaker 1: to pass this next week, right because in in the 480 00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:32,840 Speaker 1: SoundBite that you you you uh posted just now, you know, 481 00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:35,439 Speaker 1: he's talking to Republicans. But it's not just Republicans, it's 482 00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:39,159 Speaker 1: Joe manchin Well. UM. And you know the author of 483 00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:43,280 Speaker 1: this report that I based the piece off of thetas 484 00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:48,320 Speaker 1: Scotch full the Harvard Social Scientist. UM. She looked at 485 00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:50,919 Speaker 1: the last fifteen She looked at about fifteen years of 486 00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:57,639 Speaker 1: organizing around social justice campaigns. UH, contrasting the efforts in 487 00:27:57,680 --> 00:28:01,840 Speaker 1: North Carolina, UM with the Reverend Wlliam Barber versus Georgia 488 00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:06,040 Speaker 1: which you mentioned, and the Stacy Abrams playbook, and looked 489 00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:10,760 Speaker 1: at why it was so much more successful UM in Georgia. UM. 490 00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:13,120 Speaker 1: You know, and she she points out that that yes, 491 00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:17,560 Speaker 1: we see the educated democrats, the educated activists that are 492 00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:20,720 Speaker 1: going to be getting up and rallying again, but they're 493 00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:24,239 Speaker 1: not the ones that need to UM. They're not the 494 00:28:24,240 --> 00:28:28,920 Speaker 1: ones that need to be be activated. You know, they're 495 00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:32,160 Speaker 1: going to be out there yelling at Joe Mansion. She said, 496 00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:34,359 Speaker 1: They're going to be out there yelling at Joe Mansion 497 00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:36,840 Speaker 1: to get rid of the filibuster. Um. But he's not 498 00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:39,880 Speaker 1: going to do that. Um. And so you know what 499 00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:43,280 Speaker 1: Democrats need to do is they need to get more seats. 500 00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:46,880 Speaker 1: And already this was looking like a blood bath, um, 501 00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:49,880 Speaker 1: heading into November for Democrats. So what do they need 502 00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:51,600 Speaker 1: to go out and get cell phone numbers? Is what 503 00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:54,000 Speaker 1: you're saying, right, they need to go and get cell 504 00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:55,720 Speaker 1: phone numbers. I mean one of the points that she 505 00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:59,120 Speaker 1: makes in the in in her report, um, you know 506 00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:02,440 Speaker 1: is that Republicans have been able to go into churches, 507 00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:05,360 Speaker 1: to gun clubs. Um. You know, taken over the place 508 00:29:05,440 --> 00:29:11,840 Speaker 1: of unions. Um. You know, which Democrats have had historically, Um, 509 00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:16,120 Speaker 1: you know, been been a source of strength for them. Um. 510 00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:18,440 Speaker 1: You know she looks at Stacy Abrams and how she 511 00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:22,640 Speaker 1: went to funeral homes for organizing. Um. And so you 512 00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:24,880 Speaker 1: know it's like you said, it's it's cell phones, it's 513 00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:30,479 Speaker 1: you know, yeah, it's it's on the ground organizing. Let 514 00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:32,200 Speaker 1: me ask you at our remaining moment here, and I 515 00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:33,840 Speaker 1: know it's not the thrust of your column, but how 516 00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:38,200 Speaker 1: about Republicans organizing around this? Republicans are very effective at that, 517 00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:42,080 Speaker 1: right with in terms of raising money and organizing, you know, 518 00:29:42,360 --> 00:29:47,040 Speaker 1: actionable uh groups in terms of voting and voting behavior 519 00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:49,960 Speaker 1: that we could see in November. Or is this really 520 00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:53,760 Speaker 1: a democratic story about mobilizing that the Republicans have already 521 00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:56,600 Speaker 1: got the energy they need. No, I don't I don't know. 522 00:29:56,680 --> 00:29:59,640 Speaker 1: I think that, you know, I hate to say this, 523 00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:02,000 Speaker 1: but I think it remains to be seen. Look like 524 00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:04,560 Speaker 1: I go back to saying there is a lifetime. There's 525 00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:07,280 Speaker 1: gonna be time between now and when the final opinion 526 00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:10,200 Speaker 1: is handed down. And you can see that Republicans are 527 00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:13,200 Speaker 1: really you know, they're they're kind of they're steering clear 528 00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:15,280 Speaker 1: and they're treading lightly on this. I think they need 529 00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:18,280 Speaker 1: to see what the final opinion is. And Democrats do 530 00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:21,440 Speaker 1: Juliana Goldman come back and see us again on Bloomberg. 531 00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:32,040 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg sound On on Bloomberg Radio. As we 532 00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:35,880 Speaker 1: round out our Friday together, we assemble our reporter's round table. 533 00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:37,520 Speaker 1: It's been a while since we've done this. If you 534 00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:40,360 Speaker 1: listen to sound On, you already know Bloomberg Government's Emily 535 00:30:40,440 --> 00:30:44,200 Speaker 1: Wilkins and Jack Fitzpatrick no strangers to our microphones. And 536 00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:47,000 Speaker 1: today we want to focus not a fairly busy agenda 537 00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:50,040 Speaker 1: on Capitol Hill before the House returns to town. Emily, 538 00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:51,560 Speaker 1: I'll start with you. It's great to see you in 539 00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:54,920 Speaker 1: studio today. Chuck Schumer says he's moving a bill to 540 00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:58,960 Speaker 1: codify abortion rights next week. Uh, he does not appear 541 00:30:59,000 --> 00:31:01,360 Speaker 1: to have the votes. Is this about shaming Republicans in 542 00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:04,440 Speaker 1: the publicly voting? No, I mean you can use the 543 00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:06,800 Speaker 1: word shaming if you would like to use that word. 544 00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:11,320 Speaker 1: I think what Jack Schumber would probably use the word shaming. 545 00:31:11,480 --> 00:31:14,160 Speaker 1: And in trying to stick with with the non biased 546 00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:16,560 Speaker 1: track here, I'll just say it's getting them on the 547 00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:20,120 Speaker 1: record right. If they get this vote, then groups can 548 00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:23,400 Speaker 1: run ads saying that Senator such and such voted against 549 00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:26,160 Speaker 1: this bill to protect the right to abortion and it's 550 00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:28,600 Speaker 1: something you know that that Democrats do see is critical 551 00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:30,600 Speaker 1: to do. But but no, I mean this is going 552 00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:33,520 Speaker 1: to need sixty votes to move forward. Democrats don't have 553 00:31:33,600 --> 00:31:36,479 Speaker 1: sixty votes. In fact, the last time that they tried 554 00:31:36,520 --> 00:31:39,959 Speaker 1: to move forward legislation on row, they didn't even have 555 00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:42,960 Speaker 1: enough support within Democrats to get the fifty. You had 556 00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:45,560 Speaker 1: Senator Joe Manson vote against, so he will be an 557 00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:48,720 Speaker 1: interesting one to watch this time. Um. But but yes, 558 00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:50,840 Speaker 1: I mean this is really just more of a messaging 559 00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:54,880 Speaker 1: thing than than any substantial legislation. Jack, Senator Schumer wants 560 00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:57,640 Speaker 1: to shame some Republicans, but many pro life Republicans will 561 00:31:57,640 --> 00:32:01,440 Speaker 1: be proud to stand up and vote again this legislation. 562 00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:05,680 Speaker 1: Does that go from most of the party in the Senate, Yeah, 563 00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:09,400 Speaker 1: most of the Republicans, I think. I'm sure Democrats would 564 00:32:09,400 --> 00:32:12,360 Speaker 1: say they're shaming Republicans, But I think this is an 565 00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:16,680 Speaker 1: issue that really motivates both sides, both parties. The Democrats 566 00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:20,360 Speaker 1: are hoping that this ruling and the fact that it's 567 00:32:20,400 --> 00:32:23,600 Speaker 1: come out now early, uh, sort of motivates their own 568 00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:29,280 Speaker 1: Democratic base. But it's not really necessarily a persuasive issue 569 00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:32,920 Speaker 1: where you're going to find Republicans to win over. And 570 00:32:32,960 --> 00:32:36,000 Speaker 1: I think that's illustrated by the fact that the two 571 00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:40,720 Speaker 1: potentially persuadable Republicans in the Senate, Senators Collins and Murkowski. 572 00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:44,480 Speaker 1: They may be able to get something a little more 573 00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:48,200 Speaker 1: moderate than this bill that the Democrats are are putting 574 00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:52,400 Speaker 1: forward that would take a step toward codifying ROW. But 575 00:32:52,520 --> 00:32:54,479 Speaker 1: that's not the plan because they know they're not going 576 00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:56,800 Speaker 1: to get sixty votes, so they might as well give 577 00:32:56,840 --> 00:33:00,480 Speaker 1: the Democrats they're uh, sort of what the base wants 578 00:33:00,520 --> 00:33:03,720 Speaker 1: to see, allow the Republicans to vote no, and both 579 00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:06,080 Speaker 1: parties end up saying, hey, we we got what we 580 00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:09,360 Speaker 1: wanted out of this. Politically interesting. Chuck Schumer Emily yesterday 581 00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:11,000 Speaker 1: was saying, you know this, We're not just doing this 582 00:33:11,040 --> 00:33:13,240 Speaker 1: as a one off. We're gonna keep coming back again 583 00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:16,520 Speaker 1: and again and again. How many versions, how many attempts 584 00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:19,000 Speaker 1: could we see? I mean, it will be interesting to 585 00:33:19,000 --> 00:33:22,600 Speaker 1: see if there is some sort of somewhat bipartisan legislation 586 00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:25,880 Speaker 1: that comes from this um, although even then it's a 587 00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:28,200 Speaker 1: huge question mark. I mean, the idea that you get 588 00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:31,760 Speaker 1: ten Republican senators is a lot here. I think it's 589 00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:34,000 Speaker 1: also worth noting no. I was talking with a couple 590 00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:37,400 Speaker 1: of strategists, particularly down in Texas because they've got an 591 00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:40,120 Speaker 1: interesting primary coming up there with one of really the 592 00:33:40,200 --> 00:33:43,360 Speaker 1: only uh anti abortion Democrat left in the House, Henry 593 00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:45,560 Speaker 1: quay Are. He will be facing the progressive Jessica to 594 00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:48,880 Speaker 1: Snarrows later this month. But I was asking no, Snarirows 595 00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:51,440 Speaker 1: has really tried to make a quare stance on abortion 596 00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:53,960 Speaker 1: and issue, and I asked them strategists, if it's going 597 00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:56,360 Speaker 1: to work, and they really pointed out that. You know, 598 00:33:56,440 --> 00:34:00,240 Speaker 1: for Democrats, they're not immune to a fleet in ation. 599 00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:03,120 Speaker 1: They still care about things like high prices, the economy, 600 00:34:03,200 --> 00:34:07,120 Speaker 1: the kitchen table issues. Yes, abortion is something that really 601 00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:10,480 Speaker 1: energizes and motivates the base, but it's certainly not the 602 00:34:10,560 --> 00:34:14,319 Speaker 1: only issue at play here in these mid terms. Republicans 603 00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:18,800 Speaker 1: do not seem to be concerned here with polling Jack, 604 00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:22,640 Speaker 1: a majority of Americans do not want to see Row v. 605 00:34:22,760 --> 00:34:26,880 Speaker 1: Wade overturned. But that doesn't cause a problem in a 606 00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:31,279 Speaker 1: primary season, doesn't right in a Republican primary, that may 607 00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:34,200 Speaker 1: not be an issue. Also, if you look at the 608 00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:39,560 Speaker 1: details of polling UM, probably the most motivated group by 609 00:34:39,560 --> 00:34:43,200 Speaker 1: this on the Democratic side would be college educated women. 610 00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:46,400 Speaker 1: Uh And keep in mind, you know, Joe Biden outperformed 611 00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:49,839 Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton among that group. I'm not sure how much 612 00:34:50,200 --> 00:34:54,439 Speaker 1: Democrats have to gain by the most motivated voters who 613 00:34:54,440 --> 00:34:57,200 Speaker 1: you'd be trying to turn out, who otherwise might turn out. 614 00:34:57,360 --> 00:34:59,640 Speaker 1: It might not turn out in a mid term. Uh. 615 00:34:59,719 --> 00:35:03,440 Speaker 1: So it doesn't pull that well in the aggregate for Republicans, 616 00:35:03,920 --> 00:35:07,480 Speaker 1: But in Republican primaries, you're probably safe as an anti 617 00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:11,839 Speaker 1: abortion Republican. Uh And Democrats don't have very easy math 618 00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:14,480 Speaker 1: on their side to say, you know who exactly is 619 00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:16,600 Speaker 1: going to show up who wasn't going to It's really 620 00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:19,959 Speaker 1: smart analysis there. President Biden this afternoon is once again 621 00:35:19,960 --> 00:35:24,280 Speaker 1: pushing the Bipartisan Innovation Act, which has been crawling through Congress. 622 00:35:24,280 --> 00:35:26,200 Speaker 1: We've talked about this a lot emily. Can the House 623 00:35:26,200 --> 00:35:28,560 Speaker 1: and Senate get together on this or is it actually 624 00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:31,720 Speaker 1: in danger of never passing? I think at this point, 625 00:35:31,760 --> 00:35:34,120 Speaker 1: given some of the votes that we saw in the Senate, 626 00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:37,720 Speaker 1: there's definitely the momentum and the will to pass something. 627 00:35:37,760 --> 00:35:41,160 Speaker 1: I mean, when you look uh and certainly the you 628 00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:44,080 Speaker 1: can frame this legislation in several different ways, but when 629 00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:46,680 Speaker 1: you look at the desire for the US remain competitive 630 00:35:46,680 --> 00:35:50,440 Speaker 1: against China, that is absolutely something that is bipartisans And 631 00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:52,640 Speaker 1: so I think there is a question that we did 632 00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:55,600 Speaker 1: see um some sort of early meetings on the House side. 633 00:35:55,640 --> 00:35:59,480 Speaker 1: I don't think everyone's gotten together fully on this one yet, um, 634 00:35:59,520 --> 00:36:02,880 Speaker 1: But there is the willingness to do something. There is 635 00:36:03,080 --> 00:36:06,400 Speaker 1: time left to do something, and I think it's just 636 00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:09,040 Speaker 1: a question of you know, when you actually get the 637 00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:11,880 Speaker 1: conference seas in the room, and then after that what 638 00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:14,680 Speaker 1: the sticking points are, which I think is something we're 639 00:36:14,719 --> 00:36:17,280 Speaker 1: really going to see shape up in the next coming weeks. 640 00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:20,399 Speaker 1: Is it possible to kind of frame these sticking points Jack? 641 00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:22,120 Speaker 1: People have been talking on both sides of the aisle 642 00:36:22,120 --> 00:36:25,239 Speaker 1: about passing the Chip Act, which is inside this legislation, 643 00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:28,440 Speaker 1: for the better part of a year. The Commerce Secretary 644 00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:30,960 Speaker 1: was out again this morning, the President out again. What's 645 00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:34,480 Speaker 1: holding it up? Yeah, it's been very interesting because it's 646 00:36:34,480 --> 00:36:37,960 Speaker 1: not necessarily an issue that is holding it up. It's 647 00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:40,200 Speaker 1: that there's been a back and forth in which both 648 00:36:40,239 --> 00:36:42,879 Speaker 1: the Senate and House kind of try to use their 649 00:36:42,920 --> 00:36:45,759 Speaker 1: prerogative to do their own bill. And that's why we're 650 00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:50,319 Speaker 1: in a conference now. There was never a time when 651 00:36:50,360 --> 00:36:53,560 Speaker 1: they got together and said, let's do one bipartisan bill. 652 00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:56,560 Speaker 1: And it's an issue that's broad enough that you can 653 00:36:56,600 --> 00:36:59,719 Speaker 1: just keep adding things. For example, are our colleague Maria 654 00:36:59,760 --> 00:37:03,359 Speaker 1: cuy just reported recently, even after all of this, there's 655 00:37:03,400 --> 00:37:06,480 Speaker 1: now talk by Senators Ron Wyden and Mike Creepo and 656 00:37:06,560 --> 00:37:09,120 Speaker 1: some others saying, what if instead of just spending this 657 00:37:09,200 --> 00:37:12,560 Speaker 1: money on semiconductor and investments, there could be a semi 658 00:37:13,200 --> 00:37:16,640 Speaker 1: semiconductor investment tax credit, And then you open the door 659 00:37:16,680 --> 00:37:19,640 Speaker 1: to a whole conversation about tax credits. There's some pushback 660 00:37:19,680 --> 00:37:22,480 Speaker 1: on exactly, you know, So it's the conversation has just 661 00:37:22,600 --> 00:37:24,560 Speaker 1: never ended, and it's gone on and on and on. 662 00:37:24,640 --> 00:37:26,600 Speaker 1: There's a lot of bipartisan support for what's in this, 663 00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:29,080 Speaker 1: but eventually they have to stay all right, we're doing 664 00:37:29,200 --> 00:37:31,640 Speaker 1: one last bill that's good for the House and Senate, 665 00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:33,799 Speaker 1: and we're going to end these conversations, and that would 666 00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:36,279 Speaker 1: be quite a moment. One thing that does appear to 667 00:37:36,320 --> 00:37:40,399 Speaker 1: have bipartisan support is anything that helps Ukraine in its 668 00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:43,960 Speaker 1: war against Russia. And uh, it gets a little more complicated, 669 00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:49,000 Speaker 1: but largely bipartisan support for additional sanctions. Jack, are we 670 00:37:49,000 --> 00:37:52,359 Speaker 1: going to get another round from Capitol Hill itself or 671 00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:54,839 Speaker 1: is this something that the administration is going to own? 672 00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:58,560 Speaker 1: You know? On sanctions, the administration is taking the lead, 673 00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:02,160 Speaker 1: and there's a conversation coming up among group of seven leaders. 674 00:38:02,360 --> 00:38:05,600 Speaker 1: There's there's sort of an ongoing conversation about if there 675 00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:08,440 Speaker 1: are more sanctions that they can add, or if there 676 00:38:08,440 --> 00:38:12,000 Speaker 1: are any loopholes they can get around to better enforce sanctions. 677 00:38:12,560 --> 00:38:16,239 Speaker 1: But in Congress, the conversation really is about providing that 678 00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:19,359 Speaker 1: money that thirty three billion dollars requested by Biden. That's 679 00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:21,799 Speaker 1: something that is a lot of bipartisan support. The one 680 00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:25,120 Speaker 1: challenge is they still have a COVID relief bill that 681 00:38:25,200 --> 00:38:27,719 Speaker 1: Democrats want to attach to that. If you get into 682 00:38:27,719 --> 00:38:30,120 Speaker 1: the COVID conversation, you have to get into the title 683 00:38:30,160 --> 00:38:34,680 Speaker 1: forty two immigration pandemic policy issue. So it's a question 684 00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:38,480 Speaker 1: of whether the Ukraine Supplemental spending bill, which is very popular, 685 00:38:38,560 --> 00:38:41,440 Speaker 1: becomes the Christmas treat that's weighted down with a number 686 00:38:41,440 --> 00:38:44,240 Speaker 1: of ornaments, but that issue itself has a lot of support. 687 00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:46,319 Speaker 1: Is there any chance Emily this comes through as a 688 00:38:46,320 --> 00:38:49,680 Speaker 1: clean bill or something to Jack's point, particularly COVID funding 689 00:38:49,760 --> 00:38:52,480 Speaker 1: will have to be attached to it. That is sort 690 00:38:52,520 --> 00:38:54,960 Speaker 1: of the big question right now. And you certainly have 691 00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:57,239 Speaker 1: Democrats who are out there saying that they want to 692 00:38:57,280 --> 00:38:59,880 Speaker 1: have both of them attached, that they think that it's important. 693 00:39:00,160 --> 00:39:05,000 Speaker 1: But I think Democrats understand that it's going to it's 694 00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:06,799 Speaker 1: it's sort of a calculus of how it looks, right. 695 00:39:06,880 --> 00:39:09,640 Speaker 1: Who is going to shoulder the blame if Democrats attach 696 00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:13,040 Speaker 1: COVID funding to Ukraine or Democrats going to be the 697 00:39:13,080 --> 00:39:15,520 Speaker 1: ones left holding the bag for not trying to class 698 00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:17,680 Speaker 1: pass a clean bill, or couldn't they sort of blame 699 00:39:17,719 --> 00:39:20,799 Speaker 1: Republicans for being the ones not providing the votes. I mean, 700 00:39:21,040 --> 00:39:23,839 Speaker 1: this is I think kind of the big question right now. 701 00:39:24,120 --> 00:39:27,040 Speaker 1: Republicans really vote against it though with COVID funding attached, 702 00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:30,040 Speaker 1: Republicans would try to attach that title of forty two 703 00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:33,200 Speaker 1: immigration funding to it, and then once that happens, Democrats, 704 00:39:33,239 --> 00:39:34,799 Speaker 1: you're going to have an issue. We put all the 705 00:39:34,880 --> 00:39:37,680 Speaker 1: ornaments on the tree. That is that how this likely ends. 706 00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:40,960 Speaker 1: I mean, it's either going to be Democrats are going 707 00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:43,040 Speaker 1: to realize that they want to pass something quickly they 708 00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:45,759 Speaker 1: need to pass a clean bill, or it's going to 709 00:39:45,840 --> 00:39:47,840 Speaker 1: be yes some sort of battle where it's just the 710 00:39:47,880 --> 00:39:50,600 Speaker 1: thing after thing after thing is added and then this 711 00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:52,799 Speaker 1: whole process dolls. You have a gut check on that 712 00:39:52,960 --> 00:39:55,400 Speaker 1: jack because you know at some point President Zelenski is 713 00:39:55,400 --> 00:39:57,799 Speaker 1: going to say, hey, where's the thirty three billion, and 714 00:39:57,800 --> 00:40:00,920 Speaker 1: that's going to be a big deal. The administration of 715 00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:04,080 Speaker 1: Biden administration is running out of their current draw down authority. 716 00:40:04,120 --> 00:40:06,040 Speaker 1: They were down to the hundreds of millions and they're 717 00:40:06,080 --> 00:40:10,240 Speaker 1: requesting tens of billions. So the pressure is on now 718 00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:13,359 Speaker 1: and there's still this push to get a vote by 719 00:40:13,600 --> 00:40:18,040 Speaker 1: next week on this. Uh so the pressure is already there. 720 00:40:18,600 --> 00:40:21,840 Speaker 1: We know that the Republicans, if the COVID money was attached, 721 00:40:22,320 --> 00:40:26,320 Speaker 1: the Republicans would call for an amendment on Title forty two. 722 00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:29,200 Speaker 1: If that fails, they would have their excuse for voting 723 00:40:29,200 --> 00:40:31,719 Speaker 1: against the whole thing, and they could also offer an 724 00:40:31,719 --> 00:40:35,480 Speaker 1: amendment to do a standalone Ukrainian supplemental so, you know 725 00:40:35,600 --> 00:40:38,759 Speaker 1: it could be challenging for Democrats if they insist on 726 00:40:38,800 --> 00:40:41,080 Speaker 1: attaching the COVID money. Well, next week gott to be 727 00:40:41,160 --> 00:40:43,920 Speaker 1: another riot in Washington. As we hear from Jack and Emily, 728 00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:45,520 Speaker 1: it's really great to spend time with both of you. 729 00:40:45,600 --> 00:40:49,040 Speaker 1: Good to see Bloomberg Government's Emily Wilkins and Jack Fitzpatrick. 730 00:40:49,320 --> 00:40:50,960 Speaker 1: Thanks to both of you, and have a great weekend. 731 00:40:51,160 --> 00:40:53,640 Speaker 1: See get back here Monday. I'm Joe Matthew. This is 732 00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:54,160 Speaker 1: Bloomberg