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Speaker 2: Back in Washington, the fastest show in politics, back on
Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and Radio. I'm glad you joined us here
Speaker 2: for the Monday edition as we still count votes, certainly
Speaker 2: in California, with several seats in the House not yet called,
Speaker 2: so we technically don't know who controls the House of Representatives.
Speaker 2: It's a pretty deliberate win for Republicans on the Senate side, though,
Speaker 2: we are again waiting for a call in the Arizona
Speaker 2: Senate race. That'll be the last block. As we learned
Speaker 2: over the weekend, the Nevada Senate race called and Donald
Speaker 2: Trump wins the state of Arizona, so we could have
Speaker 2: some tickets splitting when it comes to Arizona. Of the
Speaker 2: House is the wild West literally in this case, We've
Speaker 2: got millions of votes to be counted, nearly five millions
Speaker 2: still in California, so it could be days it could
Speaker 2: be weeks before we really have a sense of it.
Speaker 2: If Republicans do keep their majority in the House, it
Speaker 2: looks like it'll be about as thin as what they
Speaker 2: have right now. Republicans need five, Democrats need fifteen, and
Speaker 2: the nineteen outstanding races. You can do the math. It's
Speaker 2: looking pretty good for Republicans and the idea of a trifecta,
Speaker 2: which is where we start our conversation with someone you've
Speaker 2: been hearing a lot about over the balance of this campaign.
Speaker 2: Kevin Roberts is president of the Heritage Foundation, and he's
Speaker 2: out with a new book called Dawn's Early Light, Taking
Speaker 2: Back Washington to Save America, and he's with us at
Speaker 2: the table today in Washington. Kevin, it's great to see you,
Speaker 2: a nice to meet you. Thank you for joining us here, Joe,
Speaker 2: thanks for having me TV and radio. I've got a
Speaker 2: lot of questions for you, because as one of the
Speaker 2: forces behind Project twenty twenty five, you've been waking up
Speaker 2: reading about yourself every morning for the last six months
Speaker 2: or so. That's what I'm told, Like, Yeah, maybe you've
Speaker 2: been avoiding them, and if that's the case, I salute you.
Speaker 2: We're in a world where some Republicans have demonized you.
Speaker 2: Some Democrats have done the same, and quite an experience
Speaker 2: for the Heritage Foundation here. Now that the election is done, though,
Speaker 2: Donald Trump is headed back to the White House and
Speaker 2: the GOP. As I just mentioned to our viewers and listeners,
Speaker 2: bay Well looks appears to be on track to controlling
Speaker 2: both chambers. So do you feel like they won or
Speaker 2: do you feel like you one?
Speaker 3: Oh, they won and most importantly, the forgotten ordinary American
Speaker 3: has won because what really one was an emphasis on
Speaker 3: common sense solutions to problems, and really not that at
Speaker 3: Heritage we feel either entitled or defensive about Project twenty
Speaker 3: twenty five. We just are resolute because it's now policymaking season.
Speaker 3: This is something that we've done for forty four years,
Speaker 3: since nineteen eighty with Ronald Reagan. We understand that, of
Speaker 3: course President elect Trump and Vice President elect Vance.
Speaker 4: Will make all the decisions.
Speaker 3: Have said that Project twenty twenty five is the single greatest,
Speaker 3: biggest scope of personnel and policy work that's ever happened,
Speaker 3: and we're very proud of it. It represents several dozen
Speaker 3: million Americans. If you think about the one hundred and
Speaker 3: ten organizations who are part of it.
Speaker 4: Once again, totally.
Speaker 3: Up to the President elect and Vice president elect. We
Speaker 3: operate in service to them and to the American people.
Speaker 3: But ultimately, to get to the heart of your question, Joe,
Speaker 3: the American people have won here and we look forward
Speaker 3: to playing whatever role formally or informally that we can.
Speaker 4: To support that.
Speaker 2: Well, did you anticipate the backlash you mentioned Ronald Reagan?
Speaker 2: The Mandate for Leadership was something that was actually pretty
Speaker 2: well received as a policy paper. It helped to put
Speaker 2: heritage on the map. Was this supposed to be another
Speaker 2: version of that or sort of a quiet policy paper
Speaker 2: that you would provide whatever the incoming administration would be.
Speaker 3: We wanted to insert substantive policy conversations into the political season.
Speaker 3: We did not anticipate that the radical left, which couldn't
Speaker 3: run on its record because it's terrible, actually use that
Speaker 3: as the boogeyman that'd succeed in doing that. And look,
Speaker 3: we made a tactical error in not responding in the
Speaker 3: first six weeks to their total mischaracterizations. That's on us,
Speaker 3: But ultimately the mischaracterizations are on the radical left. That's
Speaker 3: a tactical lesson that we've learned and will never repeat that.
Speaker 3: But that doesn't mean that the substantive part of the work,
Speaker 3: the policies, the personnel database, which has twenty thousand Americans
Speaker 3: who want to serve not only in presidential administrations but
Speaker 3: also in gubernatorial administrations, is somehow something to be ashamed of.
Speaker 4: In fact, quite the opposite. We're very proud of it.
Speaker 3: Having said that, it is very much designed as all
Speaker 3: of our previous projects have been designed, which is to
Speaker 3: be of service.
Speaker 4: And if I had to predict, the next.
Speaker 3: Administration is going to be filled with excellent men and women,
Speaker 3: not just because of the work we did, but most
Speaker 3: importantly because of the great acumen of the President elect
Speaker 3: and vice president elect and the team that they're already assembly.
Speaker 2: We learned one name just over the weekend. It's Tom Homan,
Speaker 2: who's going to be the border as Donald Trump is
Speaker 2: referring to it. That was from a post on truth.
Speaker 2: I don't think that's a position that requires Senate confirmation
Speaker 2: when it comes to being a czar, whatever that is.
Speaker 2: But he was one of the authors of twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2: So is the winter over.
Speaker 3: It may be the Tom Holman is also a visiting
Speaker 3: fellow at Heritage he's a good friend. I was texting
Speaker 3: him earlier congratulating him on that. And look, the most
Speaker 3: important thing. Forget Tom's professional affiliation, forget that he was
Speaker 3: a Project twenty twenty five author. The most important thing
Speaker 3: is that he is aligned not just with President Trump,
Speaker 3: but also with the American people who want to bring
Speaker 3: an end to the ridiculous disorder on the southern border.
Speaker 4: Tom's going to do a great job there.
Speaker 3: In other words, Joe, neither today nor a year from today,
Speaker 3: am I going to be sitting in my office at
Speaker 3: Heritage sort of keeping score about who's in the administration
Speaker 3: and not.
Speaker 4: That's not why we do what we do.
Speaker 3: We exist every day to be of service to the
Speaker 3: American people and to the administration for that matter. If
Speaker 3: the Democrats had won, and although it would have been
Speaker 3: very surpri for them to have called us and say
Speaker 3: you got a name for so and so agency, we
Speaker 3: would have done that too. This is the whole point
Speaker 3: about the work that he understood, does understood.
Speaker 2: Although we had heard from the transition team that no
Speaker 2: one from Project twenty twenty five was invited, you know,
Speaker 2: we've got home and that apparently was not the case.
Speaker 2: Have you talked to Donald Trump since he won.
Speaker 4: We've not spoken yet, but I anticipate that we will.
Speaker 2: I mean, he's got to be pretty keyed up on
Speaker 2: what Heritage is offering here. He was on the record
Speaker 2: when the team was trying to distance itself from you.
Speaker 2: I have no idea who is behind it, he put
Speaker 2: on X. I disagree with some of the things are saying,
Speaker 2: and some of the things are saying are absolutely ridiculous
Speaker 2: and abysmal. Do you have a sense of what he
Speaker 2: likes or doesn't like here?
Speaker 3: I think the key thing is that President Trump saw
Speaker 3: the branding as a liability in the political season. But
Speaker 3: I also would anticipate moving forward that the president elect
Speaker 3: and vice president elect, with whom we maintain great relationships,
Speaker 3: will also understand that it's the policy making see and
Speaker 3: that Heritage and all of the other groups are part
Speaker 3: of our project, are built for and if they're looking,
Speaker 3: for example, as President Trump said this morning, to dismantle
Speaker 3: the US Department of Education, we know exactly where you
Speaker 3: can go for that plan. Totally up to him about
Speaker 3: whether he uses the plan. But that's what I'm talking about, Joe.
Speaker 3: When I mentioned that great ideas and great people rise
Speaker 3: to the top. All of the political calculations of the
Speaker 3: last few months, which were very understandable and about which
Speaker 3: we have no hard feelings, are in the past.
Speaker 4: We're now in the policy making season.
Speaker 3: We think that this is the beginning of a golden
Speaker 3: era of conservative reform. I will say that because the
Speaker 3: work of Project twenty twenty five represents the conservative movement.
Speaker 3: It would be very difficult for anybody to implement policies
Speaker 3: on education, on the border, on taxation without at least
Speaker 3: consulting those ideas in people.
Speaker 4: That's not some arrogant or hubristic comment on our part.
Speaker 4: That's just the nature of how policy making works.
Speaker 2: Well, so you're back, and you're back with a new
Speaker 2: book on Early Light. It was originally supposed to release
Speaker 2: in September. Was it your decision to postpone the release?
Speaker 2: What went into that?
Speaker 3: One hundred percent my decision, and that was because as
Speaker 3: president of the Heritage Foundation and Heritage Action for America, I'm.
Speaker 4: A busy guy, like a lot of people are.
Speaker 3: You can relate to that yourself, and at Heritage Action
Speaker 3: for America, which is our five oh one c four
Speaker 3: more political arm we were busy registering almost one hundred
Speaker 3: thousand voters in Arizona and Georgia doing the appropriate ballot
Speaker 3: chasing to get them to the polls and succeeded in
Speaker 3: doing that. And we just thought it would be better
Speaker 3: in terms of using my time, for me to be
Speaker 3: zealously focused on getting conservative policy makers in a position
Speaker 3: to have a good conversation and delay the release of
Speaker 3: the book until this month.
Speaker 2: So you didn't think it would jeopardize Donald Trump's chances
Speaker 2: of being elected or other Republicans based on what you
Speaker 2: were hearing about twenty hive.
Speaker 3: No, and I understand the question was very fair, but
Speaker 3: not at all. In fact, if you get around reading
Speaker 3: the book, you will see the book.
Speaker 4: Is a reflection of trump Ism.
Speaker 3: I mean, this is really where the conservative movement in
Speaker 3: America are going. And I think because the book is
Speaker 3: far more oriented around ideas and where we take the movement,
Speaker 3: the time for that conversation is after the election.
Speaker 2: Well, I'll tell you it's really interesting because I wish
Speaker 2: I had more time with the book, but I did
Speaker 2: spend the weekend with it. And you write for America
Speaker 2: to flourish again. The institutions you talk about don't need
Speaker 2: to be reformed. They need to be burned, and you
Speaker 2: have a list of them. Burn them to the ground.
Speaker 2: Every Ivy League college, the FBI, the New York Times,
Speaker 2: the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the Department
Speaker 2: of Education, which you mentioned, eighty percent of Catholic higher education,
Speaker 2: Black Rock, the Louden County Public School System, the Boy
Speaker 2: Scouts of America, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the World
Speaker 2: Economic Forum, the Chinese Communist Party, and the National Endowment
Speaker 2: for Democracy. Do you see all of these as being
Speaker 2: on the same side of something? Is this the uniparty?
Speaker 2: You talk about?
Speaker 4: Why burn it?
Speaker 3: And what's important context for the list you there that
Speaker 3: you have there is the metaphor that I use of
Speaker 3: a controlled burn. So obviously we're talking about metaphorically regenerating
Speaker 3: these institutions. But what all of those institutions have in
Speaker 3: common is that they have forgotten the importance of the
Speaker 3: everyday American and how so much of the work that
Speaker 3: they do is oriented around concentrating power in either Washington
Speaker 3: or New York. There are good people in some of
Speaker 3: those institutions and in Washington and New York. But what
Speaker 3: the American people told us last week is that it's
Speaker 3: time for power to be devolved from those elite institutions,
Speaker 3: back to the states and back to the American people.
Speaker 3: My book places an emphasis on revitalizing federalism because that
Speaker 3: gives the people closest to power the opportunity to actually
Speaker 3: have a say in their government. By the way, I
Speaker 3: think that's what we're going to see in the next
Speaker 3: few years.
Speaker 2: Black Rock, Larry Fink sports Trump.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 3: Blackrock and Larry Fink may have supported President Trump, but
Speaker 3: before that decision, which I would just speculate is largely political,
Speaker 3: underwrote a dramatic reorientation of capital from being focused on
Speaker 3: making profit, which I know you and me and your
Speaker 3: audience care about, to a socialized idea of ESG. And
Speaker 3: I'm really glad that one of the great things that
Speaker 3: has happened in terms of policy. In fact, one of
Speaker 3: the things we talk about in Project twenty twenty five
Speaker 3: and at Heritage is undermining the ridiculous work of Larry
Speaker 3: Fink and Black Rock.
Speaker 2: So it's ESG not China investment that turned you. It's
Speaker 2: both when it comes.
Speaker 4: To there, and they're very much related.
Speaker 2: Is yeah, no doubt, no, well, no, I don't actually.
Speaker 3: Well In fact, if you let's just take the E
Speaker 3: and ESG in the environmental emphasis that actually favors the Chinese.
Speaker 2: Coser, you're going understood. So here's the thing that strikes
Speaker 2: me after spending some time with your book. You and
Speaker 2: I are from really different places. You grew up in Lafayette, Louisiana,
Speaker 2: which is a great town, by the way, and I've
Speaker 2: been there more than once. I want you to know.
Speaker 2: I'm from a place called Putnam, Connecticut, may as well
Speaker 2: be from two different planets. I think was smaller than yours, though,
Speaker 2: And while you grew up and saw the big oil
Speaker 2: bust and what happened to families and to households in Lafayette,
Speaker 2: for me, it was the textile mills, right. We had
Speaker 2: all those in these milltowns in Connecticut. They all closed
Speaker 2: when I was a kid. When the nineteen eighties got there.
Speaker 2: Then the shopping malls opened and all the main street
Speaker 2: stores closed. Unemployment went through, the roof morale went down.
Speaker 2: Very similar cultural impact, even though we're talking about massively
Speaker 2: different industries, different geography, different values. I supposed between a
Speaker 2: New England family in Louisiana, but actually maybe more similar
Speaker 2: than you think. You have French Canadian ancestors. I do too,
Speaker 2: So we have the same scenario here, and there are
Speaker 2: different potential solutions, right Joe, Biden's been talking about reshoring
Speaker 2: and friend shoring and trying to bring jobs back that way.
Speaker 2: We had the Chips Act. What does Project twenty twenty
Speaker 2: five do? What will Donald Trump do to restore the
Speaker 2: local economies in communities like the ones you and I
Speaker 2: are from.
Speaker 3: I can't tell you how much, Joe, I appreciate your question.
Speaker 3: In fact, there's no doubt we have a lot more
Speaker 3: similarities than differences.
Speaker 5: Right.
Speaker 3: Well, actually, and that's I'm talking about all that's and
Speaker 3: that's the point of the book too.
Speaker 4: But thank you for that framing. But to the heart
Speaker 4: of your question, which I love.
Speaker 3: Actually, President Biden has talked about that I think he
Speaker 3: probably could have done more in his three and.
Speaker 4: A half years.
Speaker 3: I don't say that to be a jerk. I say
Speaker 3: that that I think he could have done more, But
Speaker 3: I give him credit for saying the right things. I
Speaker 3: think the Chips Act is well intentioned, but there are
Speaker 3: some details we've got to get right going down the road.
Speaker 3: But the ultimately where the policy emphasis needs to be
Speaker 3: is a looking at the trade offs when you have
Speaker 3: a globalized economy. It isn't that globalization is bad, obviously,
Speaker 3: it's that there are effects that are deleterious.
Speaker 4: On local town on local communities.
Speaker 3: But the second is whether it's friends shoring, onshoing, or
Speaker 3: providing incentives for American companies to be producing here at
Speaker 3: home for American jobs. That's the comment we need to have.
Speaker 3: And thirdly, because of how evil the Chinese Communist Party
Speaker 3: regime is at Heritage, we are fully supportive of tariffs
Speaker 3: on China. We are not supportive of tariffs across the board,
Speaker 3: but we do understand that that is a valid conversation
Speaker 3: for us to be having, as opposed to what the
Speaker 3: political right in this country ten or twenty years ago
Speaker 3: would have said, which is you can't even talk about it.
Speaker 3: We believe we need to look at the data, we
Speaker 3: need to look at the tax regime as a whole,
Speaker 3: and we always need to understand that a good, healthy
Speaker 3: economy flows first from a good, healthy civil society, whether
Speaker 3: it's Putnam, Connecticut or Lafayette, Louisiana.
Speaker 2: And that's something. Lastly, I want to ask you about
Speaker 2: personal liberties. I don't want to do the abortion debate
Speaker 2: here on the air. We've been doing that for months
Speaker 2: and I know where you stand on this. You talk
Speaker 2: about it at length. You highlighted trans as an issue
Speaker 2: in this campaign the Republican Party did got a lot
Speaker 2: of result from some advertising in that area. Are you
Speaker 2: focused on minors, on parents, on schools, or you focused
Speaker 2: on an adult who says, Hey, I have a different
Speaker 2: view of the world in myself than you do when
Speaker 2: it comes to things like gender dysmorphia. Shouldn't adult be
Speaker 2: allowed to do what they want to do with their
Speaker 2: own body.
Speaker 3: From a policy making standpoint, especially over the next few years,
Speaker 3: we're focused on minors. But the reason that we at
Speaker 3: Heritage are so concerned about transgender ideology is because it
Speaker 3: harms any human person it touches.
Speaker 4: We love every human person.
Speaker 3: We believe in the dignity of every human person, and
Speaker 3: it's on those grounds that we think even for adults,
Speaker 3: this is problematic.
Speaker 2: Problematic because they're talking to kids about it or they're
Speaker 2: going to somehow infect other adults.
Speaker 3: What's your worry both if? I mean, hopefully there's real
Speaker 3: agreement in this country. Actually, I know there's real agreement
Speaker 3: in this country. Evidence by how effective a political issue.
Speaker 3: This was last week that we have a real issue
Speaker 3: with how much the transgender ideology has been imposed on
Speaker 3: children through our schools, through our institutions.
Speaker 4: Going back to your earlier question.
Speaker 2: As opposed to just someone going about their businesses, you know,
Speaker 2: a thirty year old, this is a choice I had.
Speaker 4: That's a big difference.
Speaker 2: That's a big difference. I'm glad that we could spend
Speaker 2: some time together, and I hope this is the start
Speaker 2: of a conversation that we'd like to continue here on Bloomberg.
Speaker 4: I'll come back anytime.
Speaker 2: I would love that. By the way, Don's Early Light
Speaker 2: is the book. Kevin Roberts, happy to meet you. Good
Speaker 2: luck with your travels. He almost missed a train for us.
Speaker 2: We'll have a lot more ahead on the fastest show
Speaker 2: in politics right here on Bloomberg.
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Speaker 2: I think we need to set the baseline only on
Speaker 2: the markets, but on the vote. We spent all last week,
Speaker 2: of course with you from New York, counting the votes
Speaker 2: well post Tuesday, and we're still counting. In the House.
Speaker 2: The House has not been called. We've got nineteen outstanding races.
Speaker 2: Republicans only need to win five of them to maintain
Speaker 2: control of the chamber. We had a couple more calls
Speaker 2: over the weekend, and the Senate firmly Republican now that
Speaker 2: they've added Nevada to the list. We're waiting on Arizona,
Speaker 2: where the Democrat is in the lead. Reuben Diego, knowing,
Speaker 2: of course, now that Donald Trump won the state, making
Speaker 2: a complete sweep, the full sweep of all seven battleground
Speaker 2: states that we spent the weekend talking about Jackie Rose
Speaker 2: and the Democrat, if I didn't make that clear, projected
Speaker 2: to win Nevada's Senate race. Here fascinating conversation with Kevin Roberts,
Speaker 2: and that is one that you are only going to
Speaker 2: hear on this program. Where else on TV or radio
Speaker 2: will you hear a deep dive like that with someone
Speaker 2: so important to the process and the conversation in this campaign.
Speaker 2: Of course, the head of the Heritage Foundation and the
Speaker 2: force behind Project twenty twenty five. It's the end of
Speaker 2: crypto winter, which it surely is a Bitcoin at a
Speaker 2: new all time high.
Speaker 4: Here.
Speaker 2: Apparently it's the end of Project twenty twenty five winter
Speaker 2: because one of the authors of this nine hundred page
Speaker 2: plus document that had tongues wagging all summer has been
Speaker 2: hired by the Transition team. Tom Homan will be the
Speaker 2: border Czar for Trump two point zero, coming back into
Speaker 2: the fold. He was already part of the Trump administration
Speaker 2: last time around. In his coming back here senior immigration
Speaker 2: official in one point zero, Donald Trump is actually using
Speaker 2: the term border zar, emulating what Joe Biden was doing
Speaker 2: with Kamala Harris. Let's reassemble our panel. Genie Schanzano was
Speaker 2: with this Democratic analyst and Bloomberg Politics contributor, political science
Speaker 2: professor at Ioni University, joined today by Lester Munson, Republican
Speaker 2: strategist bg R Group. Great to see both of you
Speaker 2: here and welcome Lester. I don't know your thoughts. I
Speaker 2: know you listen to our conversation, but I haven't had
Speaker 2: a chance to talk to you. In the break here,
Speaker 2: Kevin Roberts is now out of the cold will be
Speaker 2: helping to influence the transition. How do you see it, Well, I.
Speaker 5: Think that's not totally unexpected at all. The purpose of
Speaker 5: Heritage and these other think tanks in town is to
Speaker 5: offer policy suggestions to policy makers, whether they're in the
Speaker 5: executive branch or the legislative branch. Very natural that after
Speaker 5: the campaign is over, that these ideas they surfaced in
Speaker 5: their twenty twenty five report would be considered by the
Speaker 5: incoming Trump administration. And certainly some of the personnel recommendations
Speaker 5: I think are already starting to work out in that
Speaker 5: report's favor, and there will be some other victories for
Speaker 5: them as well, at least some other things that aren't victories.
Speaker 5: The thing that struck me Joe, First of all, excellent interview,
Speaker 5: and I did learn a lot, and I loved your
Speaker 5: comparison of the hometowns. The interesting thing for me is
Speaker 5: that this is a think tank that makes policy suggestions
Speaker 5: but also has some rather inflammatory language about burning down institutions. That's,
Speaker 5: for me is kind of the strange value add here
Speaker 5: from Heritage Foundation. I'm not sure how helpful that is.
Speaker 5: At the end of the day, we're certainly getting plenty
Speaker 5: of fiery metaphors and adjectives from the candidates. I don't
Speaker 5: know that we need them from think tanks.
Speaker 2: Also, I get you there, and he did. I was
Speaker 2: actually going to ask him that, but he did make
Speaker 2: clear that he was using figurative language and referring to
Speaker 2: burning down institutions. But fighting fire with fire is a
Speaker 2: big theme in his book, Genie. He talks about rekindling
Speaker 2: the fire of the American tradition, burning away the rot,
Speaker 2: a long, controlled burn of targets like the FBI, which
Speaker 2: again he said was not literal. The book's original subtitle,
Speaker 2: in fact, was burning down Washington to save America. But
Speaker 2: as the Democrat on our panel, Genie, after listening to
Speaker 2: him talk for the better part of twenty minutes about
Speaker 2: all a lot of different issues and what was not
Speaker 2: a confrontational conversation, I wonder if it makes you feel
Speaker 2: more comfortable about any of the contents here.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I agree with Lester. It was an excellent conversation,
Speaker 6: and it was collegial and I learned a lot. I
Speaker 6: have not read his new book, but I have read
Speaker 6: and written about Project twenty twenty five And what struck
Speaker 6: me as you asked that last question is the fact
Speaker 6: that one of the pillars of Project twenty twenty five,
Speaker 6: which Kevin Roberts talks about, is that we are going
Speaker 6: to secure our individual liberty. And that was in the
Speaker 6: context you asked that question about transgender issues. And I
Speaker 6: think it is quite the example to think about, since
Speaker 6: I played such a role in the election. And of
Speaker 6: course what he came back and said was anything but
Speaker 6: about the protection of liberty. What he said when you
Speaker 6: asked him to differentiate between children and adults was he's
Speaker 6: talking about everybody. That he is concerned indeed that adults
Speaker 6: who choose to live their life in this way may
Speaker 6: infect children, infect other adults. This is why, as we
Speaker 6: look back, you have places like Politico and others refer
Speaker 6: to this as a Christian nationalist authoritarian movement, because while
Speaker 6: it wraps itself in a conservative dogma, the reality is
Speaker 6: when they talk about liberty, they talk about God given liberty,
Speaker 6: that is, the liberty to live as he believes God
Speaker 6: wants us to, not as we in the United States do.
Speaker 6: And that's why they talk about ending separation of church
Speaker 6: and state. And of course I agree with Lester, you know,
Speaker 6: take away the fiery language they are talking about eliminating
Speaker 6: the FBI, eliminating the Department of Commerce, eliminating the Department
Speaker 6: of Education. No question, all of these can be curbed.
Speaker 6: And there's a lot of blow in DC that can
Speaker 6: be cut, no question. But this is a dramatic document,
Speaker 6: and there is a reason Donald Trump moved away from
Speaker 6: it in the campaign because he knew it would be
Speaker 6: unpopular with the American public. And lo and behold a
Speaker 6: few days later, what did he do? He nominates to
Speaker 6: run our immigration in the Border, one of the contributors.
Speaker 6: So it is worth everybody reading Project twenty twenty five,
Speaker 6: even if twenty five percent of it gets into policy.
Speaker 6: It is a dramatic shift in what has been US
Speaker 6: history and US policy.
Speaker 2: Yeah, take it from me. It's a long read, lester.
Speaker 2: I'm struck by the similarity in the language that we're
Speaker 2: hearing between some conservatives and progressives following the election. The
Speaker 2: aforementioned Kevin Roberts, in his forward for Project twenty twenty five,
Speaker 2: talks about under our constitution the elites here and under
Speaker 2: our constitution the equality that has provided. He writes nearly
Speaker 2: every top tier US university president or Wall Street hedge
Speaker 2: fund manager has more in common with a social a
Speaker 2: European head of state than with the parents at a
Speaker 2: high school football game in Waco, Texas. Get these lines.
Speaker 2: Many elites, he says, entire identity, it seems, is wrapped
Speaker 2: up in their sense of superiority over those people. But
Speaker 2: under our constitution, he writes, they are the mere equals
Speaker 2: of the workers who shower after work instead of before. Right,
Speaker 2: that's Kevin Roberts Heritage Foundation, Primila Giapaul, who is the
Speaker 2: head of the Progressive Caucus in the House. We have
Speaker 2: become a party of elites, she writes, choosing the same word,
Speaker 2: whether we abandon working class people, whether they abandon us,
Speaker 2: whether it's some combination of all of the above. Do
Speaker 2: we need to get Kevin Roberts and Primila Giapaul into
Speaker 2: a room to solve this?
Speaker 5: Yeah, Joe, you know, it's fascinating that the civil wars
Speaker 5: inside each party seem more compelling to the fighters than
Speaker 5: the actual conflict between the parties themselves.
Speaker 4: And I think, yes, part of.
Speaker 5: This is because of the the changing nature of the
Speaker 5: way we vote. Right, It's not about persuading the middle anymore,
Speaker 5: or the undecided or the independence. It's about getting the
Speaker 5: low propensity voters on your side to actually show up
Speaker 5: and vote. That's the mechanism that matters. That's the revolution
Speaker 5: that Trump actually brought to the Republican Party was less
Speaker 5: about the yelling and screaming and more about he just
Speaker 5: got people to show up who would otherwise not vote.
Speaker 5: The Democrats lost ten million votes from twenty twenty to
Speaker 5: twenty twenty four. For whatever reason, Joe Biden was able
Speaker 5: to get those ten million people to show up and
Speaker 5: Kamala Harris wasn't. And I have a feeling what Democrats
Speaker 5: are going to spend a lot of time trying to
Speaker 5: figure out is how do we get those ten million
Speaker 5: people back to the voting booth showing up to vote
Speaker 5: for our candidate. That way we can win. So this
Speaker 5: like civil war inside the two parties, is about trading
Speaker 5: off a few elite votes for a lot of votes
Speaker 5: maybe more at the bottom of the economic spectrum. That
Speaker 5: might be a little bit healthy, but it is. It
Speaker 5: is kind of fascinating that both parties are doing pretty
Speaker 5: much the exact same thing, Isn't that right?
Speaker 2: What a great conversation with our panel. Can't do this
Speaker 2: anywhere else, Jennie Shanzano. Thank you, of course, Bloomberg Politics
Speaker 2: contributor Lester Munths and bg our group. There's a lot
Speaker 2: to think about. We have a lot of questions to
Speaker 2: answer as we make our way to the next administration.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appocarplay and then
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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: We're back on Bloomberg TV and Radio from the nation's capital,
Speaker 2: back from world headquarters in New York, following many days
Speaker 2: of counting votes, and we're not done yet. The House
Speaker 2: has still not been called. This week after we've got
Speaker 2: nearly twenty outstanding House races, a lot of them in
Speaker 2: California where the balance of power will be decided, and
Speaker 2: it's looking like it will be decided in favor of Republicans.
Speaker 2: Of the nineteen races still not called. Republicans only need
Speaker 2: to win five, Democrats need to win fifteen. That's where
Speaker 2: we are in sports. Brad Howard, an expert on all
Speaker 2: things House, joins us right now from his perch at
Speaker 2: Corkoran Street Brad was a chief of staff in the House,
Speaker 2: Stephanie Murphy, as a matter of fact, who you see
Speaker 2: quite often on this program, the Democrat from Florida, a
Speaker 2: blue dog Democrat, had floor privileges and knows exactly what
Speaker 2: this moment is when we're trying to find out who's
Speaker 2: in charge, who's going to run the committees, will there
Speaker 2: be a power sharing agreement. All of this stuff is
Speaker 2: still possible, by the way, because if you were listening
Speaker 2: closely to what I said, Democrats actually could still win
Speaker 2: the House. We could still have divided government. It's just
Speaker 2: a less likely scenario with the paths that we're seeing
Speaker 2: right now. But following our conversation with Kevin Roberts, I
Speaker 2: wonder what Brad Howard has to think about our conversation
Speaker 2: about the working class, about why things went the way
Speaker 2: they did last week. And glad to see right now, Brad,
Speaker 2: it's my first chance to compare notes since the election,
Speaker 2: and I hope that you're doing well. Before I get
Speaker 2: into the big picture stuff, just give me your read
Speaker 2: on the House. Are you giving this to Republicans or
Speaker 2: you're waiting for every vote to be counted?
Speaker 7: Well, you know, well we should wait till we at
Speaker 7: least have a call on the remaining races, at least
Speaker 7: enough to determine there's two eighteen. But it does remind
Speaker 7: me of that scene in domin Demmer where he's like,
Speaker 7: you've got a one million chants. He's saying, so there's
Speaker 7: still a chance say it. So you know, look, I
Speaker 7: do think the Republicans had a great night. I think
Speaker 7: the Democrats have got to figure out, you know, what
Speaker 7: the problem with our brand is. And I've heard too
Speaker 7: many of my own party try to say, well, America
Speaker 7: is racist, or it's you know, misogynistic, or you know,
Speaker 7: they didn't know how they were voting, or they're tricked
Speaker 7: by the conservative media. And if your premise of this
Speaker 7: is entering the conversation with assuming voters were somehow tricked
Speaker 7: or duped, then you're never going to learn the lesson.
Speaker 7: The Democratic brand was resoundingly rejected in all nearly all demographics,
Speaker 7: and we have to figure out why. And the conversation
Speaker 7: has got to start with not with blaming voters, but
Speaker 7: with understanding voters. And you know, as a party, it's
Speaker 7: our responsibility to go to the voters, not to sit
Speaker 7: here and expect voters to come to us. Until we
Speaker 7: figure that out, we're going to continue to lose. And
Speaker 7: so I hope that we looked at the blue dogs
Speaker 7: for a lot of the answers. If you look back
Speaker 7: some of the closest races in the country, Jared Golden
Speaker 7: Domain and Marie Glusen camp Perez of Washington State where
Speaker 7: blue Dog co chairs, and they won. They outperformed the
Speaker 7: Democratic ticket wildly. We're still waiting on Mary Peltola and
Speaker 7: Alaska and a few of the blue Dog endorse candidates
Speaker 7: in California, but so far the blue doog in comments
Speaker 7: have held up very well.
Speaker 2: Well interesting. So with your blue dog hat on, I
Speaker 2: want to spin back to the conversation we had earlier
Speaker 2: this hour with Kevin Roberts of the Heritage Foundation. He's
Speaker 2: out with a new book, Brad you might have heard about. He's,
Speaker 2: of course, the force, the driving force behind Project twenty
Speaker 2: twenty five, and he writes in his forward for the
Speaker 2: project that many elites' is the term elites entire identity,
Speaker 2: it seems, is wrapped up in their sense of superiority
Speaker 2: over the working class and what he refers to here
Speaker 2: as parents at a high school football game in Waco,
Speaker 2: Texas under our constitution, though he says they are mere
Speaker 2: equals of the workers who shower after work instead of before.
Speaker 2: It's actually pretty good writing, and it sounds a heck
Speaker 2: of a lot like Primila Jayapaul who says we've become
Speaker 2: a party of elites and talks about the working class
Speaker 2: abandoning the Democratic Party or is it the other way around?
Speaker 2: What does it tell us when the two ends of
Speaker 2: the political spectrum come around and meet in this way
Speaker 2: in the.
Speaker 7: Narrative, Well, there's no doubt that there's a populism streak
Speaker 7: running through the people at the moment, you know, and
Speaker 7: I think dimocrats are a couple structural problems that they're
Speaker 7: plaguing or party at the moment. I think we've got
Speaker 7: to stop letting kind of young, college educated wide urban
Speaker 7: liberals dictate to the rest of the party, particularly in
Speaker 7: the social issues. You know, there's rapid change right now
Speaker 7: in the American society, from automation, UH to technolo technological
Speaker 7: to you know, social civil rights movement. There's a lot
Speaker 7: coming at people and to we've got we've got to
Speaker 7: understand why some of them can't move as fast as
Speaker 7: we would like and we have to have patience, and
Speaker 7: we have to, you know, come with them. I think
Speaker 7: the second thing is you have a big disconnect in
Speaker 7: the organized labor movement. You have the national chapters which
Speaker 7: are adamantly Democratic and and and you know and work
Speaker 7: with Democratic Party. And you have the rank and file, which,
Speaker 7: as we've seen in this election, and the working class
Speaker 7: warm whilely to Trump. So if Democratic Party leaders are
Speaker 7: listening to the national labor chapters, there's a big disconnect there.
Speaker 7: And if we're listening to them but getting none of
Speaker 7: their votes, then something's off kilter. And so we've got
Speaker 7: to ask the questions about why that disconnect is there
Speaker 7: and start listening to the rank and file union members
Speaker 7: that are out there in the country, and they're telling
Speaker 7: us what they want, right. They're telling us they resent
Speaker 7: the fact that if you have a college degree, it
Speaker 7: means you can't be successful. They resent the fact that
Speaker 7: the rich are getting richer and the hard working Americans
Speaker 7: aren't keeping getting ahead. I think Democrats ignored the alarm
Speaker 7: bells around inflation too late, and when we finally did,
Speaker 7: the American people said, well, if you can't even acknowledge
Speaker 7: that there's a problem why would I like you to
Speaker 7: fix it? And keep in mind, Donald Trump one with
Speaker 7: one very simple premise. It's been the same premise he's
Speaker 7: had since twenty sixteen. Things are broke, and I'm going
Speaker 7: to fix it. And the Democrats didn't have much to
Speaker 7: come back with. We didn't have a consistent message, and
Speaker 7: the closing visuals of the campaign were Trump wearing an
Speaker 7: orange workers vest, driving a garbage truck in McDonald's commas
Speaker 7: was with Beyonce, and in the lips in Washington, DC.
Speaker 3: You know.
Speaker 2: So, I think we need to look at our messaging.
Speaker 7: We need to look who we're listening to and who
Speaker 7: we're talking to, and we've got to have some tough conversations.
Speaker 7: I think everybody's right and everybody's wrong. So there's a
Speaker 7: lot to look at.
Speaker 2: Great analysis. You use the word resent, Brad Bernie Sanders
Speaker 2: used the word angry in his interview on Meet the
Speaker 2: Press yesterday.
Speaker 8: Let's listen, the working people of this country are extremely angry.
Speaker 4: They have a right to be angry.
Speaker 8: In the richest country in the history of the world today,
Speaker 8: the people on top are doing phenomenally well, while sixty
Speaker 8: percent of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck. Where is
Speaker 8: the Democratic Party? Are they prepared to stand up to
Speaker 8: these powerful corporate interests, raise the minimum wage, fight for
Speaker 8: healthcare for all people, make sure that all of our
Speaker 8: kids get the quality education that they need, expand social security.
Speaker 2: Of course, he's an independent, not a Democrat. But Brad,
Speaker 2: how come it's so easy for everyone to have this
Speaker 2: conversation today instead of last Monday morning?
Speaker 7: Well, I think number one, I want to point out
Speaker 7: that Kamala Harris got a higher percent of the vote
Speaker 7: in her race in Vermont than Bernie Singers did in his.
Speaker 7: So first number two is that all Bernie's already trying
Speaker 7: to prescribe solutions, And this is part of the problem
Speaker 7: with the Democratic Party. The solutions we're prescribing, Like Americans
Speaker 7: generally support, but they don't like us. You saw in
Speaker 7: states where they voted to codify abortion rights but yet
Speaker 7: voted for Donald Trump. They voted to codify paid family
Speaker 7: leave but voted for Donald Trump. So what's it tell
Speaker 7: you when they generally like our solutions and our policy
Speaker 7: positions but they don't like us. That is a branding
Speaker 7: and connection problem, Like you cannot show up in the
Speaker 7: black and Hispanic communities two months before an election and
Speaker 7: expect them to listen. It looks the way it is.
Speaker 7: It looks like you're pandering. And so we've got to
Speaker 7: build inroads in these communities. We've got to get off
Speaker 7: these college campuses and into We've got to get out
Speaker 7: of the boardrooms and into the break rooms. We've got
Speaker 7: to really have conversations these workers. And I think number
Speaker 7: two is the resentment is so when you look at,
Speaker 7: for instance, the Biden college student loan debt relief, the
Speaker 7: people that had worked hard their whole life, who passed
Speaker 7: on the fancy vacations, who passed on the fancy cars
Speaker 7: and fancy houses and script and saved to put their
Speaker 7: kids to college, and then yet they see their neighbors,
Speaker 7: who you know, lived irresponsibly, all of a sudden, get
Speaker 7: a check from the government and unforgiven, that builds resentment.
Speaker 7: I'm not saying it's bad policy. I'm just saying it
Speaker 7: builds resentment. And so we've got to understand that there's
Speaker 7: a popular streak in the government in the electric right
Speaker 7: now that's looking at an unfair system. And when you
Speaker 7: think the system is unfair and it's broken, you're going
Speaker 7: to go to the guy that'f telling you he's going
Speaker 7: to fix it. You're not going to go to the
Speaker 7: party that's acknowledged that, that's refusing to acknowledge anything's broken.
Speaker 7: And when we said defending democracy, I think a lot
Speaker 7: of voters took that as defending the status quo of
Speaker 7: defending the broken system, and I think that backfired of us.
Speaker 2: Wow. I hope everyone understands here that people are going
Speaker 2: to be hiring Brad Howard for the next two years
Speaker 2: to explain this to them in a room. And you're
Speaker 2: getting it right now on this Monday here on Bloomberg. Brad,
Speaker 2: you're a creature of the house. Bring us inside what's
Speaker 2: about to happen here because Hakem Jeffreys is going to
Speaker 2: either have a razor thin majority where he's going to
Speaker 2: leave the Party of the Insurgent and see which one
Speaker 2: is actually more impactful, which one's easier.
Speaker 7: Well, I mean, obviously being the minority is always easier.
Speaker 7: You know, the responsive governing is hard and Republicans have
Speaker 7: figured that out this last two years. What I will
Speaker 7: say with this, does you know we know somely close
Speaker 7: margin regardless of who wins, right, that's for sure? What
Speaker 7: that does is that actually empowers groups like the Blue
Speaker 7: Dogs on the Hill and the modern Republicans, the Republican
Speaker 7: governance groups, so to speak, because we've seen that the
Speaker 7: far far right, the kind of what we call the
Speaker 7: right wing Maga crowd, doesn't want to govern. And so
Speaker 7: you know, Speaker Johnson has struggled over the last year
Speaker 7: and a half to put together a group of Republicans
Speaker 7: that can pass a rule to put things on the
Speaker 7: floor as simple as funding the government, and he's had
Speaker 7: to rely on Leader Jeffries to deliver democratic votes so
Speaker 7: they can govern. I suspect that's going to continue. And
Speaker 7: so really the key makers here regardless if the Democrats
Speaker 7: have the majority or if the Republicans have the majority,
Speaker 7: it's going to be groups like the Blue Dog Democrats,
Speaker 7: of which I know well, and the New Dems, of
Speaker 7: which I know well, and the problem Solfer's Caucus, like
Speaker 7: these moderate coalitions. There is a you talk about a
Speaker 7: power sharing agreement, there won't really be a formal one.
Speaker 7: There's a there's always an informal powersharing agreement that determines
Speaker 7: committee sizes and stuff, but there may actually be forced
Speaker 7: into an informal power sharing agreement because if the far
Speaker 7: Far Ride is never going to vote to allow Speaker
Speaker 7: Johnson to bring responsible legislation to the floor, he's going
Speaker 7: to have to rely on Leader Jeffries. And Leader Jefferies
Speaker 7: has shown that he will put the governing and the
Speaker 7: American people over parties in politics.
Speaker 2: And so, and I'll add two.
Speaker 7: Leader Jeffries, you got to remember didn't force all the
Speaker 7: Democrats to vote a certain way in the last two years.
Speaker 7: He's allowed them to vote as they need to vote.
Speaker 7: So when they come together, he's in a strong position
Speaker 7: to help this Democratic Party heal and and and because
Speaker 7: he's you know, he allowed people to vote the way
Speaker 7: he need to vote. So he's going to be a
Speaker 7: great leader in resource to turn to as this party
Speaker 7: emerges and figures out where to go forward.
Speaker 2: Well that's why I ask what might have sounded like
Speaker 2: a weird question, because Speaker Johnson, if this is in
Speaker 2: fact going to be a sin Republican majority, will need
Speaker 2: Hakim Jeffries. He will need Democrats to get things done,
Speaker 2: which makes him enormously influential in the minority, doesn't it.
Speaker 7: Yeah, And keep in mind, like when I was Chief
Speaker 7: of Staff to Congress from Stephanie Murphy. She was leader
Speaker 7: of the Blue Dogs. When we came in, the Republicans
Speaker 7: had full control of government, They had the House to
Speaker 7: sit in the White House. This was in twenty seventeen,
Speaker 7: So you know, I have a lot of experience personally
Speaker 7: navigating to being a Democrat, you know, in a year.
Speaker 7: But to your point about why now people are having
Speaker 7: these conversations and we haven't really had before, You've got
Speaker 7: to keep in mind when Trump won in twenty sixteen,
Speaker 7: it shocked everyone, and a lot of people chalk that
Speaker 7: up to, well, he'll really won the popular vote. Well,
Speaker 7: Russia intervened, Well, it was the James Comey letter, right,
Speaker 7: And so we never had the discussion the hard lessons
Speaker 7: because we thought we won. And then you go to
Speaker 7: twenty twenty and they did win, and I think we
Speaker 7: took the wrong lessons from both of those. And so
Speaker 7: this is the first time in two presidential cycles that
Speaker 7: we've had a tough conversation internally as a party. And
Speaker 7: I think what caught a lot of people off guard.
Speaker 7: I think all the polls show that Trump was a
Speaker 7: slight favorite to win, and he did. But I don't
Speaker 7: think everyone suspected the incredible growth and support he had
Speaker 7: across nearly every single demographic and a clean sweep of
Speaker 7: the battleground states, and even you look at areas at
Speaker 7: Cook County, Illinois where Chicago is, he has a twelve
Speaker 7: to fifteen point swing, double digit swing in his favor,
Speaker 7: which is just you know, you've got to really think,
Speaker 7: if we're losing the heartland and we're losing votes in
Speaker 7: urban areas, what is left.
Speaker 2: Absolutely incredible in such great analysis by Brad Howard, I
Speaker 2: can't thank you enough Brad for the deep dive today.
Speaker 2: He's at Corkoran Street Group where he is the founder
Speaker 2: and president, as mentioned former Chief of Staff Congress Swim
Speaker 2: and Stephanie Murphy. Great to see you, Brad.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast can
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Speaker 2: Here on Balance of Power, on Bloomberg Radio on the
Speaker 2: satellite and on YouTube, where you can find us right
Speaker 2: now search Bloomberg Business News Live. We've got the cameras
Speaker 2: set up for you here and a lot to talk
Speaker 2: about as we wait for California. Throw another log on
Speaker 2: the fire. They still have almost five million ballots five
Speaker 2: million votes to count in California, which means it could
Speaker 2: be another week, another two, I don't know. We'll find
Speaker 2: out here, nine hundred and fifty thousand in Los Angeles
Speaker 2: County alone, and they get thirty days to count in
Speaker 2: California as we wait to see who's going to control
Speaker 2: the House. This is why things are taking so long.
Speaker 2: In a world in which we can all vote on
Speaker 2: American Idol and solve this with millions of people weighing
Speaker 2: in in a matter of seconds, we'll wait weeks for
Speaker 2: the state of California to choose its representatives. Here in Washington, DC,
Speaker 2: a little different. In the Senate, we've just got one
Speaker 2: left that's Arizona, which Donald Trump won over the weekend.
Speaker 2: It looks like we've got some tickets splitting there with
Speaker 2: Diego the Democrat leading Carrie Lake. Big questions as well
Speaker 2: about the transition, and when we talk about what's happening
Speaker 2: on Capitol Hill versus what's happening at the White House
Speaker 2: versus what's happening on the campaign trail. There are very
Speaker 2: few people you can call to hit all three. Ron
Speaker 2: Bonjean is one of them. As political rights he is
Speaker 2: one of the most popular communicators in Washington, and that
Speaker 2: is quite an achievement in a town with this much
Speaker 2: hot air. Chief spokesman for the Speaker of the House,
Speaker 2: for the Senate Majority leader. He also helped in the
Speaker 2: transition last time around, and he knows a thing or
Speaker 2: two about what we're discussing. Having also worked in the
Speaker 2: executive branch. Ron Bonjean is also a founder partner at
Speaker 2: a firm you hear a lot about on this broadcast,
Speaker 2: Rock Solutions, one of the pillars of K Street. Ron,
Speaker 2: we finally got you in. It's great to see you.
Speaker 2: Welcome to Bloomberg's Balance of Power. What a treat.
Speaker 9: Thanks you much, Thank you so much. It's an honor
Speaker 9: to be here, and thank you for that.
Speaker 2: Well, my god, I hope I came close, because I've
Speaker 2: got some questions for you, and I'm really wondering how
Speaker 2: you're feeling about a lot of things. I'm going to
Speaker 2: start with something rather esoteric, and that is the leadership
Speaker 2: battle that's taking place here and about to unfold in
Speaker 2: the Senate. It looks like now that Donald Trump has won,
Speaker 2: the deck may be shuffled.
Speaker 4: Here.
Speaker 2: We were talking about John Thune versus John Cornyn. There
Speaker 2: was Rick Scott over on the side, but nobody saw
Speaker 2: that as a real possibility. Now MAGA is endorsing him,
Speaker 2: not Trump, but Tucker Carlson and many others. As we
Speaker 2: heard from Rick Scott, Senator from Florida on Sunday Morning television.
Speaker 10: Let's listen, we have got to change the way the
Speaker 10: Senate is run to get Trump's agenda done. What is
Speaker 10: going to take is somebody's going to take the time
Speaker 10: to sit down and bring people together. We've got to get,
Speaker 10: for a lot of things, sixty votes in the Senate,
Speaker 10: so we've got to have somebody's going to sit down
Speaker 10: with Democrats and say, how do we balance a budget?
Speaker 10: How do we do these things? Okay, that's all I've done.
Speaker 10: I'm a deal guy.
Speaker 2: It's the secret ballot though, Ron Bonjin, could MAGA change
Speaker 2: the order here in the leadership in the Senate or
Speaker 2: is this just a diversion for you and I to
Speaker 2: talk about today.
Speaker 9: Yeah, it's really tough when it's a secret ballot. You know,
Speaker 9: if it was a transparent ballot and senators had to
Speaker 9: put their names on it, there Republican mega constituents will
Speaker 9: be lighting them up. I find it highly unlikely that
Speaker 9: Rick Scott, actually Senator Rick Scott, actually affects this vote
Speaker 9: tremendously with this outside campaign to persuade the inside. This
Speaker 9: is an insider's game. While Donald Trumps president is president elect,
Speaker 9: you know, in ways has a tremendous amount of power
Speaker 9: going in and is already making big moves. You know,
Speaker 9: senators like this is a very club like atmosphere. It's
Speaker 9: very difficult to make the changes that Rick Scott would
Speaker 9: like to see. And imagine if Rick Scott forced his
Speaker 9: way in the way he's doing it right now, how
Speaker 9: would he be able to manage that conference? You know,
Speaker 9: going forward he's going to need them. So, you know,
Speaker 9: the pressure on the outside can backfire on him. And
Speaker 9: if it were to work, there would be a lot
Speaker 9: of I would say, you know, a sour taste in Republicans' mouths.
Speaker 2: Does Trump care himself or does he figure whoever wins
Speaker 2: here he can affect, whether it's Thune corner Scott.
Speaker 9: Listen, if Trump knew who the winner was going to
Speaker 9: be out of this, he would probably back that person
Speaker 9: because you don't going in being the most you know,
Speaker 9: president elect, you're not going to want to back a loser.
Speaker 9: That's a bad message. You're sending it right away that
Speaker 9: you made a strategic mistake. So he's being very careful.
Speaker 9: And I don't think that anybody telling him to stay out.
Speaker 9: I thought what Senator Thune said about him staying out
Speaker 9: of the race. I thought, okay, well, you ask him
Speaker 9: to stay out of the race means that he's likely
Speaker 9: going to weigh in at some point. Then if you're
Speaker 9: asking him to stay out, but we'll see what happens.
Speaker 2: Yeah, or give you a read on the House. Does
Speaker 2: it go Republican? The math is certainly pointing that way.
Speaker 2: And if that happens, does Mike Johnson remain speaker?
Speaker 9: Yeah, it's likely going to remain in Republican hands. You know,
Speaker 9: all eyes you know are out west, and we're talking
Speaker 9: about you know, plus one, two, three, four votes, you know,
Speaker 9: something along those lines, A very handful of votes that
Speaker 9: would be you know, and it's better to be the
Speaker 9: majority than the minority, because you're setting the agenda. You're
Speaker 9: setting the committee schedules everything hinges on that. However, this
Speaker 9: is going to be very typical for Johnson because what
Speaker 9: if what if a member of Congress gets sick, a
Speaker 9: Republican and gets sick. What if there's a car that's
Speaker 9: broken down the highway? He needs every vote on the
Speaker 9: big ones to make account. And you know, I think
Speaker 9: for the next decade we're going to have back and forth,
Speaker 9: small margin Democrats, small margin Republican. So this is a
Speaker 9: this is an area that Johnson has operated decently well in.
Speaker 9: He's thrown into the mix during the midterm, like mid year,
Speaker 9: and he's doing well. And I think he knows how
Speaker 9: to how to handle it with Trump on his side,
Speaker 9: by the way, which might help affect how the Freedom
Speaker 9: Caucus operates and relates to him.
Speaker 2: So then to the transition, we're touching all three bases
Speaker 2: with Ron Bonjie. We've got a couple of names here.
Speaker 2: I'm sure you're hearing a lot more than those are
Speaker 2: being published. At least Dephonic to the UN Tom Holman
Speaker 2: is going to be borders are and we understand that
Speaker 2: Stephen Miller is going to get a deputy a chief
Speaker 2: of staff role when it comes to policy. In this case,
Speaker 2: you've actually helped to orchestrate transitions like these ron Bonjin.
Speaker 2: When will it be complete? And when you go downstairs
Speaker 2: out to dinner or for a drink on K Street,
Speaker 2: you go into the prime rib next door, what's the
Speaker 2: number one conversation? Is it tariffs or taxes or what?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 9: No, Look, I worked on the first Trump transition. We
Speaker 9: were in charge of making sure those nominees got across
Speaker 9: the line, got confirmed. And you know, right now Trump
Speaker 9: is very clearly making moves early. He is not sitting
Speaker 9: still going forward. You know a lot of other president
Speaker 9: elects carefully plan and time out their announcements. That's not
Speaker 9: the way Trump does it. He rolls them out there.
Speaker 9: I mean, the transition really hasn't officially begun. I mean
Speaker 9: they have not moved into I mean, they's still negotiating
Speaker 9: about moving into the large GSA building that's used by
Speaker 9: thousands of Trump team members to prepare, you know, prepare
Speaker 9: nominees for confirmation. But I'd say that the number one
Speaker 9: thing that CASTRT is looking at is who's going to
Speaker 9: be in power under the Trump in the Trump cabinet.
Speaker 9: So right now, I was just hearing at State. Could
Speaker 9: it be Senator haggardy Er, could it be Senator Rubio?
Speaker 9: That was the latest I just heard before coming in here.
Speaker 9: You know who's making it, who's not making it. I
Speaker 9: mean there was look at center, Pompeo left by the wayside,
Speaker 9: not center. Second, former Secretary of State Pompel left by
Speaker 9: the wayside. So now underneath that, sure, there are a
Speaker 9: lot of policies that that organizations now have to get
Speaker 9: ready for. But you have to see the details of
Speaker 9: those policies, and you need to know who's in charge.
Speaker 9: We're still, you know, a little ways away from January twentieth,
Speaker 9: but I'll tell you Donald Trump is making moves. I
Speaker 9: think he's going to make the most moves that any
Speaker 9: presidential elect president elect has ever done, affecting policy and
Speaker 9: affecting change before he's even entered office. I mean, look,
Speaker 9: he already talked to Putin with Musk on the phone,
Speaker 9: and he also told him don't mess with Ukraine. I
Speaker 9: have weapons and only use them. He's not even sure,
Speaker 9: he's not even sworn him yet.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know how appropriate a lot of people
Speaker 2: feel that is, but that's where we are. And apparently
Speaker 2: they did get on the phone together, Ron Bonjin. What's
Speaker 2: it going to be like? And there's some shades of
Speaker 2: nineteen eighty here. Do you think that the Middle East unfolds,
Speaker 2: Ukraine unfolds around the time of the inaugural whatever the
Speaker 2: next chapters are in those two theaters?
Speaker 9: Well, in terms of foreign policy, I think that world
Speaker 9: leaders view Donald Trump as an unpredictable one, an unpredictable person.
Speaker 9: They're going to really tread with caution with him. I
Speaker 9: mean they did so during his first administration very carefully.
Speaker 9: They're going to do it again. And so Trump is
Speaker 9: going to lay out his red lines out there. Glad
Speaker 9: he just did with Putin. It's unimaginable to see what
Speaker 9: will be like going in at this point, because I
Speaker 9: think every day feels like a giant news cycle. But
Speaker 9: you know clearly there's some there will be hesitation among China, Russia.
Speaker 9: I ran I'm making big moves on Donald Trump's watch.
Speaker 2: Fascinating stuff here. As someone who helped to orchestrate the
Speaker 2: last transition, I'm just curious. Lastly, what you expect to hear.
Speaker 2: There's been a lot of attention paid to Project twenty
Speaker 2: twenty five and that second pillar that includes personnel. There's
Speaker 2: also been reporting that because there's no contract or agreement
Speaker 2: with the GSA, the transition team is doing its own
Speaker 2: vetting using a private security firm instead of the FBI.
Speaker 2: What does all that result in?
Speaker 9: Yeah, Look, I would say that, you know, Donald Trump
Speaker 9: doesn't adhere to norms and the standards that are set
Speaker 9: out there.
Speaker 2: It's very clear.
Speaker 9: We've seen it in all over year, so it's likely
Speaker 9: going to you know, this transition. I think they need
Speaker 9: that infrastructure that will be helpful. I you know, being
Speaker 9: there on site. I mean we had a mock hearing room.
Speaker 9: We knew where every transition team was around the nominees
Speaker 9: in one building, so we could get to them quickly
Speaker 9: and have conversations that needed to take place. Can it
Speaker 9: occur outside of that, Yes, I would say the number
Speaker 9: one target, and I don't know Donald Trump's mind right now,
Speaker 9: is the Pentagon. I think that there are generals that
Speaker 9: he doesn't like in there, who were you know that
Speaker 9: he wants to get out and install his own people in,
Speaker 9: get get rid of some of the bureaucracy that he
Speaker 9: finds would be challenging to his ideas. I don't know
Speaker 9: what those are, but I have heard from those connected
Speaker 9: to the Trump world that that's that's a big goal, is.
Speaker 2: Ron bonjing. I hope this won't be so long before
Speaker 2: we get you back. It's great to see you, and
Speaker 2: thank you so much for the nites with his experience
Speaker 2: from the transition from the Capitol and from the White House.
Speaker 2: Co founder partner Rock Solutions, Ron Bonjine with us on
Speaker 2: the Fastest show in Politics. Thanks for listening to the
Speaker 2: Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you
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Speaker 2: DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.