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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read a lot?

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Speaker 2: They're up for running again, so smooth, so sweet, splendid

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Speaker 2: sisting just glorious.

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Speaker 1: Ex procution, guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort,

6
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Speaker 1: four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shot with that shop of mind?

8
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Speaker 1: God, buddy, And that's why you see nor beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the.

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Speaker 2: Most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picts them. Shut up.

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Speaker 3: I'm trying again.

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Speaker 1: The all it's left too, the wide eyed drill piffus,

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Speaker 1: How old Earth, Big time happens.

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Speaker 3: Hello everybody, and welcome back to Wondergo, the soccer betting

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Speaker 3: podcast from the Action Network. My name is Michael Leeboff.

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Speaker 3: Joining me as always are my friends and colleagues BJ

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Speaker 3: Cunningham and Anthony Dabundo And gentlemen. We are at the

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Speaker 3: top of the stretch of the Premier League season, but

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Speaker 3: we have a full slate of games ahead of us

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Speaker 3: this weekend, starting with the seven thirty and kickoff on

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Speaker 3: Saturday between Arsenal. They're plus one fifteen hosting Manchester United,

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Speaker 3: the foils of the entire league. Right now, they're plus

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Speaker 3: two forty five the draw here is plus two to fifty. Man,

25
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Speaker 3: what a good bet I made on United money line

26
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Speaker 3: against Liverpool. That will go down as one of the

27
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Speaker 3: top ones for me on the season. But this match,

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Speaker 3: it has some jeopardy to it. Both these teams will

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Speaker 3: fancy themselves as a part of the race for the

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Speaker 3: top four. This is how it sets up right now,

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Speaker 3: Spurs fifty seven points and thirty two games played, same

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Speaker 3: as Arsenal Spurs ahead right now on the tiebreaker, and

33
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Speaker 3: then United fifty four points from thirty three games played,

34
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Speaker 3: so they have one less than the two teams they're chasing.

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Speaker 3: So this is a must win game for United if

36
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Speaker 3: they do fancy getting themselves back into the race. I

37
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Speaker 3: do think that this game looks the line looks about right.

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Speaker 3: It's just impossible to really have any feeling for United

39
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Speaker 3: from a betting perspective. I would be closer to the

40
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Speaker 3: Red Devils here and what could be a bylow spot

41
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Speaker 3: after especially after Arsenal had a rousing win over Chelsea.

42
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Speaker 3: But it's just really hard to get back on that horse. Anthony,

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Speaker 3: before we go to BJ what do you have for

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Speaker 3: this one?

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Speaker 2: I don't have a ton I don't love the entire

46
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Speaker 2: weekend to be totally honest, but this match being the headliner, especially,

47
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Speaker 2: it's two teams that I don't really know what to

48
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Speaker 2: make of at the moment. I mean, I thought Arsenal

49
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Speaker 2: were pretty good today against Chelsea. They were clearly the

50
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Speaker 2: better team over ninety minutes, and it didn't feel that

51
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Speaker 2: way in the first half. You know, the goal was

52
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Speaker 2: very the first goal was very fluky, and then Chelsea

53
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Speaker 2: kind of controlled the play, but they didn't really create

54
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Speaker 2: them any chances, only had them at point seven to

55
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Speaker 2: eight expected goals, So the Blues weren't exactly creating a

56
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Speaker 2: ton and the defensive miscues kind of helped Arsenal and

57
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Speaker 2: so I go back and forth on what to make

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Speaker 2: of this match. But that being said, I don't know

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Speaker 2: how you bet United at the number. I mean, the

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Speaker 2: the number is suggesting that Arsenal and United are about

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Speaker 2: even teams. I don't really think that's the case. I

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Speaker 2: think Arsenal's better. I've got Arsenal rated a little better.

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Speaker 2: I do show a little bit of value on Arsenal,

64
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Speaker 2: so I certainly lean that way if I'm forced to

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Speaker 2: play it, But I still don't trust this team defensively.

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Speaker 2: Because what we saw today is that they're still prone

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Speaker 2: to mistakes. And you know, Nuna Tavares had a decent

68
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Speaker 2: game today, I thought, but if United has Sancho back,

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Speaker 2: we don't know the health status of Paul Pogba. We'd

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Speaker 2: also don't know if Christiano Ronaldo is going to be

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Speaker 2: back after tragic gloss of his son. So there's so

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Speaker 2: much in the air that for now I think I'm

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Speaker 2: staying away here, but definitely a lean toward Arsenal at

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Speaker 2: the current number. And you know, I'm glad that Pj's

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Speaker 2: back in on the Gunners. He's wearing his quarter zip.

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Speaker 2: For those of us who can't see the pod, you

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Speaker 2: know this is a podcast, but he's back in, which

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Speaker 2: I'm glad to see after they are rousing win today.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, reminder, you can watch the show on YouTube if

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Speaker 3: you prefer that, and you can see BJ in his

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Speaker 3: beautiful Arsenal tracksuit or he usually is wearing a Brighton

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Speaker 3: kit when Arsenal is not going well. But look at

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Speaker 3: that smile. The Arsenal kid is back the Iowa twinkle

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Speaker 3: in his blue eyes.

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Speaker 1: BJ.

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Speaker 3: I saw in the notes that we do before the

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Speaker 3: podcast that you were leaning towards Arsenal, which has really

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Speaker 3: been the case for you, I feel like for a

89
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Speaker 3: while now, but you're back in both a wallet and

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Speaker 3: the heart.

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Speaker 1: A absolutely our teed revolution is back on. We're tied

92
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Speaker 1: with Toddenham. This is a massive match. I mean, this

93
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Speaker 1: is really really really big for Arsenal. But I mean

94
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Speaker 1: Anthony mentioned how do you bet United? Not at this number,

95
00:04:35,200 --> 00:04:37,720
Speaker 1: but really at any number right now? I mean they

96
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Speaker 1: look so disorganized, disjointed. They just look like I have

97
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Speaker 1: no plan whatsoever. And they mentioned on the broadcast, but

98
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Speaker 1: you have, and this has been the case all season long.

99
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Speaker 1: But you have individuals pressing, not a team pressing. So

100
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Speaker 1: what happens is you get a lot of guys, individuals

101
00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:55,720
Speaker 1: who are coming up there and pressing, and then that

102
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Speaker 1: just leaves wide open airs. Para McGuire got caught twice

103
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Speaker 1: in no man's lay and you see him just pointing

104
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Speaker 1: out other people like what are you doing? Well, it's

105
00:05:03,720 --> 00:05:06,440
Speaker 1: because nobody is pressing as a team, and nobody really

106
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Speaker 1: knows what they're doing. So yes, United can get saved

107
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Speaker 1: by Chrishi A. Ronaldo and some of their better attacking

108
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Speaker 1: players when they play lower quality sides. But against the

109
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Speaker 1: Big Six, it becomes a real problem and it was

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Speaker 1: very evident on Tuesday. So for the season against the

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Speaker 1: Big Six, United has a minus eight point seven expected

112
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Speaker 1: gold differential in eight matches and arelying one point seven

113
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Speaker 1: expected goals per ninety minutes in those matches. That is

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Speaker 1: a clear sign that they are not at the level

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Speaker 1: of the rest of the Big Six. Also, Anthony mentioned

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Speaker 1: it the form since twenty the calendar turn to twenty

117
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Speaker 1: twenty two, Arsenal has a plus point sixty three expected

118
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Speaker 1: gold differential per ninety minutes, United sitting only plus two

119
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Speaker 1: point four expected gol differential per ninety minutes. So Arsenal

120
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Speaker 1: has clearly been the better team since the calendar turned

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Speaker 1: to twenty twenty two. And the big thing that I

122
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Speaker 1: think for Arsenal is Tony Astium might be back for

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Speaker 1: this one. He's currently questionable. I your than tzavaras he

124
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Speaker 1: played fine, but once again it was one of his

125
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Speaker 1: miss that led to a goal, which has happened pretty

126
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Speaker 1: much every single match so far. So if Tomiostu comes

127
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Speaker 1: back and center Sores can play on the other flank,

128
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Speaker 1: that is huge, huge for Arsenal defensively, and having Ben

129
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Speaker 1: White and Gabrielle in the center there. So I mean

130
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Speaker 1: Arsenal has been really good defensively. Also, since the calendar

131
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Speaker 1: turned only point nine to one actually allowed per ninety minutes,

132
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Speaker 1: they only one point sixty six expected goals to Chelsea

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Speaker 1: on Wednesday, so just a couple of defensive mistakes. So

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Speaker 1: I have Arsenal projective minus one o five. I I'm

135
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Speaker 1: finally showing some projected value on them, And I think

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Speaker 1: we really have to question where the motivation level is

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Speaker 1: with Manchester United because they did not look ready, They

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Speaker 1: did not look like they were motivated or even wanted

139
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Speaker 1: to be at Anfield on Wednesday, and Bruno, you know,

140
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Speaker 1: Fernanz said it afterwards. He goes, they're battling for trophies,

141
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Speaker 1: We're battling for nothing right now. So they're clearly out

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Speaker 1: of the Champions League race. I mean, if they win

143
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Speaker 1: this one, they're technically back in it. But if they

144
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Speaker 1: lose this one, you have to start questioning motivation with

145
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Speaker 1: Manchester United. So I do like Arsenal at the number

146
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Speaker 1: at plus one fifteen. If tomioskis that's a huge, huge

147
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Speaker 1: boost for the Gunners, and I really think that they're

148
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Speaker 1: gonna smash United at the Emirates on Saturday morning.

149
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Speaker 3: I think that this match there is going to be

150
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Speaker 3: this is United's last chance. So I'm not terribly concerned

151
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Speaker 3: about the motivation for this one. Like you said, if

152
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Speaker 3: they do lose this one or even try it, I

153
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Speaker 3: think then they're basically having the rest of the season

154
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Speaker 3: as a zombie season. There'll be a zombie team and

155
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Speaker 3: it could turn toxic. Before Ericton Hogg comes, Antony wanted

156
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Speaker 3: to get one more worded before we moved on.

157
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's just a general soccer betting thing,

158
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Speaker 2: like don't fall in love with form. We talked about

159
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Speaker 2: this during the Midweek pod when we said, look like

160
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Speaker 2: Arsenal loss three in a row. They lost four out

161
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Speaker 2: of five, but you look at them in the line numbers,

162
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Speaker 2: they weren't that bad. They just had some bounces go

163
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Speaker 2: against them. They were a little worse, but they weren't terrible, like,

164
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Speaker 2: oh my god, this guy is falling. United have been like,

165
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Speaker 2: oh my god, this guy is falling bad. There is

166
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Speaker 2: a difference there, and that's the main reason we use

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Speaker 2: expected goals. Like you, if you looked at just the results,

168
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Speaker 2: you'd say, oh, Arsenal coming into this game four out

169
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Speaker 2: of five Lostelle looking great and but you know that's

170
00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:05,560
Speaker 2: not really true necessarily, And now you're looking at it

171
00:08:05,520 --> 00:08:08,080
Speaker 2: and you're like, Okay, Arsenal, they kind of ride the ship.

172
00:08:08,320 --> 00:08:10,880
Speaker 2: Probably deserved a good result to go their way. And United,

173
00:08:10,960 --> 00:08:13,200
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, barely screaming by no arch on

174
00:08:13,280 --> 00:08:17,840
Speaker 2: XTG getting absolutely hammered at Liverpool. It's a definitely concern. Finally,

175
00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:19,200
Speaker 2: and Arsenal, all right.

176
00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:22,040
Speaker 3: We'll move on to a ten am kickoff between man

177
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Speaker 3: City minus nine hundred prohibitive favorites hosting Watford. They're twenty

178
00:08:26,960 --> 00:08:29,920
Speaker 3: to one. The draw here is plus nine point fifty cities.

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00:08:30,200 --> 00:08:32,240
Speaker 3: When I was you know, watching evert in for the

180
00:08:32,240 --> 00:08:35,280
Speaker 3: most part, but when they were staggered Star time, so

181
00:08:35,280 --> 00:08:37,600
Speaker 3: I had a pretty good eye on City and for

182
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Speaker 3: the first half it really looked like bright Brighton was

183
00:08:40,040 --> 00:08:41,319
Speaker 3: going to be able to get that done, get a

184
00:08:41,400 --> 00:08:44,920
Speaker 3: nil nil across the line. And then that second half

185
00:08:45,040 --> 00:08:48,440
Speaker 3: was just I mean, City word for fantastic and help

186
00:08:48,480 --> 00:08:51,600
Speaker 3: Brighton overall to zero point one to two expected goals.

187
00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:55,679
Speaker 3: And boy, I think what's interesting here is like what

188
00:08:55,720 --> 00:08:58,720
Speaker 3: Brighton did is exactly what Watford's going to try to do,

189
00:08:58,760 --> 00:09:01,640
Speaker 3: which is just defend like and hope to keep City

190
00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:04,960
Speaker 3: to nothing and then uh, maybe get lucky with the

191
00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:08,800
Speaker 3: goal and and Watford is rungs and rungs below Brighton

192
00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:11,880
Speaker 3: on the latter. So not too much faith here though

193
00:09:11,920 --> 00:09:13,839
Speaker 3: I do. I could see City having trouble getting the

194
00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:17,280
Speaker 3: first one, but after that happens, which does feel like

195
00:09:17,360 --> 00:09:20,719
Speaker 3: kind of an inevitability, they should start going into the

196
00:09:20,720 --> 00:09:22,839
Speaker 3: back of the net. And Watford just isn't the type

197
00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:25,559
Speaker 3: of team that that should scare City. On the counter,

198
00:09:25,720 --> 00:09:30,079
Speaker 3: they're averaging only they're one of the worst offensive teams

199
00:09:30,080 --> 00:09:31,719
Speaker 3: in the in the Premier League, I should say, and

200
00:09:31,720 --> 00:09:33,920
Speaker 3: they're averaging at one point one expected goes forward the

201
00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:36,839
Speaker 3: last three matches, which were against decent opponents. But it's

202
00:09:36,880 --> 00:09:40,640
Speaker 3: just they're they're not going to ever like that's their ceiling.

203
00:09:40,640 --> 00:09:43,480
Speaker 3: They're not going to break the bank there, So nothing

204
00:09:43,559 --> 00:09:47,120
Speaker 3: for me here. Don't trust City to break them down

205
00:09:47,240 --> 00:09:50,960
Speaker 3: enough to cover the alt lines and don't trust Watford

206
00:09:50,960 --> 00:09:53,800
Speaker 3: at all. So passing here BJ what ABOUE?

207
00:09:54,040 --> 00:09:56,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm also passing the one thing I'll say about Watford.

208
00:09:56,840 --> 00:09:59,040
Speaker 1: I mentioned this last week. They obviously lost in the

209
00:09:59,360 --> 00:10:03,200
Speaker 1: final minutes to Brentford, but they've been really underrated under

210
00:10:03,280 --> 00:10:07,280
Speaker 1: Roy Hodgson, so minus fifteen actual goal differentially has twelve

211
00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:09,720
Speaker 1: matches in charge only a minus four point one expect

212
00:10:09,760 --> 00:10:12,400
Speaker 1: a goal differential. Now, that type of positive aggression is

213
00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:14,360
Speaker 1: not going to come against a team like Manchester City.

214
00:10:14,400 --> 00:10:17,120
Speaker 1: I mean it might who knows. But for a team

215
00:10:17,160 --> 00:10:19,720
Speaker 1: like Watford who cannot play through pressure, who are going

216
00:10:19,800 --> 00:10:20,959
Speaker 1: to try to sit back into four to four to

217
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Speaker 1: two and just hope to god they can get some

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Speaker 1: type of counter attack, it's really troublesome. So I'm at

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Speaker 1: the stage with City right now that I'm just passing

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Speaker 1: when they're playing smaller sides. I just have no interest

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Speaker 1: in betting overs under spreads with them. They're just two

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Speaker 1: ball dominant right now, and they've been creating a ton

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Speaker 1: and a ton of chances for me just for me

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Speaker 1: to you know, lay off playing under. So I am

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Speaker 1: ultimately just passing on this.

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Speaker 3: Match, Anthony, anything for you here?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's a good live under spot. You know,

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Speaker 2: the totals three and a half. If you get an

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Speaker 2: early goal, you might get like a live under four.

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Speaker 2: I'm in, Like, I just don't think City needs to

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Speaker 2: run up the score, and they don't really play a

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Speaker 2: style that leads to running up the score. I know

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Speaker 2: they've had some crooked numbers against Watford in the past,

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Speaker 2: but like you mentioned, Watford have defended relatively well under Hodgen.

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Speaker 2: They've been a little unlucky. They could get a bouncer

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Speaker 2: to their way to get a goal even but I'm

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Speaker 2: not betting the team total over not there for me.

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Speaker 2: One thirty five not quite good enough on the road

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Speaker 2: plus one thirty five that is, so this is yeah,

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Speaker 2: this is an easy pass.

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Speaker 3: We will move on to Newrork City, the only team

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Speaker 3: below Watford in the standings. There plus two sixty five

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Speaker 3: hosting Newcastle plus one fifteen. The draw here is plus

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Speaker 3: two thirty five when you consider where they are and

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Speaker 3: who they are or just not in that terrible form.

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Speaker 3: They're coming off an impressive loss to Manchester United in

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Speaker 3: which they probably should have got a point. Then they

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Speaker 3: had to win over Burnley and then before that the

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Speaker 3: clean sheet draw against Brighton. So it's this team is

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Speaker 3: still fighting. They're doing you know, they're playing. I guess

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Speaker 3: loose no pressure on them. They're they're done and dusted.

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Speaker 3: So I actually don't hate it at home plus two

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Speaker 3: sixty five against this new as a team that I

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Speaker 3: think all three of us believe is a little bit overrated.

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Speaker 3: But at the same time we keep losing against them.

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Speaker 3: But I feel like this, of all the games on

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Speaker 3: the board, when you count up every single bet that's

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Speaker 3: made in the Premier League in the across the world

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Speaker 3: this weekend, this would be the one with the lowest

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Speaker 3: amount of bets on it, and for good reason. So

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Speaker 3: beg Nord to nothing for me, Anthony, What do you

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Speaker 3: have here?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Newcastle beats me again. That's two out of three

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Speaker 2: weeks I bet against them and they won one nil

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Speaker 2: and some you know, they were the better team today,

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Speaker 2: completely dominated the first half. I didn't atually get a

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Speaker 2: chance to watch the match because there was too much

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Speaker 2: going on between the other three, but I thought, you know,

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Speaker 2: looking just through the box scorer, I mean, I think

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Speaker 2: it was eight shots to zero until Palace right sure

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Speaker 2: their first shot near the end of the first half.

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Speaker 2: So that's an impressive ball control performance, possession performance from

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Speaker 2: an Eddie Howe team. You haven't seen a ton of

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Speaker 2: that from Newcastle. Yeah, I mean it's norture past for

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Speaker 2: me too. I just I still don't believe that this

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Speaker 2: team is that good, but they keep winning every game

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Speaker 2: one nil or to one of the death, so maybe

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Speaker 2: they are, and that, you know, maybe Norriich gets a

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Speaker 2: goal and that's where you look. You know, Newcastle will

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Speaker 2: over due to Conzide one by now given the chances

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Speaker 2: they've allowed. Palace didn't manage to get ten shots in

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Speaker 2: the second half and they were chasing the game, so

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Speaker 2: clearly a sign that you know, there's still some vulnerability

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Speaker 2: with them. But yeah, this is another stay away on

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Speaker 2: a pretty This probably is the worst Saturday Morning card

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Speaker 2: of the year. I don't think we've had a worst

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Speaker 2: Saturday ten am slate than the three we've got here.

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Speaker 3: On that note, we'll talk about Leicester City and Aston Villa.

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Speaker 3: Leicester is plus one eighty, Villa plus one sixty on

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Speaker 3: the road. The draw here is plus two forty by

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Speaker 3: Lester coming off a draw against everten at Goodison Park

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Speaker 3: in which they played a pretty strong eleven. I'm assuming

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Speaker 3: they will rotate a bunch here as they look ahead

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Speaker 3: to Roma in the Europa Conference League semifinals over the

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Speaker 3: week on Thursday. This is this will be their six

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Speaker 3: game in sixteen days. Leicester so then you're looking at

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Speaker 3: seven in. However, many what is a seven in like

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Speaker 3: twenty something at twenty two, twenty three when when they

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Speaker 3: end up playing Roma, So it's it's it's been a

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Speaker 3: jam pack schedule for them. Villa, on the other hand,

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Speaker 3: they haven't played in two weeks and are coming off

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Speaker 3: four consecutive losses, but the x G differential in those

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Speaker 3: results is not terrible, and they just haven't really been

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Speaker 3: playing for much. They're one of like three or four

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Speaker 3: teams and left in the entire league that has not

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Speaker 3: had a meaningful game in quite some time. So once again,

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Speaker 3: like Antony said, it is a pretty ugly card, and

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Speaker 3: this is the one that I have no interest in

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Speaker 3: and no lean BJ you do think there is one

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Speaker 3: angle you can take though.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And this is the second time I've been really

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Speaker 1: surprised by a line with aston Villa. A couple of

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Speaker 1: weeks ago when aston Villa was no road favorite against Wolves.

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Speaker 1: Now they're a slight road favorite at Lester, And I

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Speaker 1: think the market just really doesn't like Lesser right now.

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Speaker 1: And it's for three reasons essentially. Is First, like you mentioned, Michael,

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Speaker 1: they have been playing a son of soccer over the

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Speaker 1: last few weeks. They are in a look ahead spot

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Speaker 1: with the europe Conference League on Thursday, and they've been

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Speaker 1: somewhat of a lock box over that time span. I

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Speaker 1: mean last two months there plus two actual goal differential

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Speaker 1: and a minus five point six expected gold differentials. So

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Speaker 1: with all those arguments, you could say, yes, you know,

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Speaker 1: I want to fade Lester, but do I really want

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Speaker 1: to fade them at home getting plus money on a

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Speaker 1: drawn OA bet line. I mean, I'm projecting some value

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Speaker 1: on Lester here, just like I did against Newcastle, and

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Speaker 1: aston Ville has been off for quite a bit. They

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Speaker 1: have a arrest advantage, but they haven't been that impressive

330
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Speaker 1: under Steven Gerrard. I don't think that we can just

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Speaker 1: sit here and say that aston Villa has completely turned

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Speaker 1: things around. I mean they're one of the worst pressing

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Speaker 1: teams in the Premier League. That's how you beat Lester,

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Speaker 1: so they're going to provide no resistance to them Lester.

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Speaker 1: They've lost the expected goals better in their last two matches.

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Speaker 1: But you kind of have to look at game state too,

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Speaker 1: because they went ahead early against Newcastle and they went

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Speaker 1: ahead early against Everton, and they created a ton of

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Speaker 1: chances against Everton, A lot of them just weren't that

340
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Speaker 1: high of qualityman. James Madison, I thought had a fantastic

341
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Speaker 1: game today, so I definitely lean towards Lester drawn o

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Speaker 1: Bett at even money, I'm projecting some value on it,

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Speaker 1: but I have to wait until a lineup comes out

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Speaker 1: because I can't play something if they're just going to

345
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Speaker 1: rotate and play the B team and save everybody for

346
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Speaker 1: Rome on Thursday.

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Speaker 2: I'll be betting Roma on Thursday. We'll talk about that. Yeah,

348
00:16:14,400 --> 00:16:16,320
Speaker 2: I'm loading up. I'm saving my money here and not

349
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Speaker 2: going to bet it. Like Bjay said, bad number, uh

350
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Speaker 2: Villa road favorite against Leicester, like I can't quite get there.

351
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Speaker 2: But Thursday.

352
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Speaker 1: M hmm.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Roma is on the road too, so

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Speaker 2: I might even get a good number. You have two

355
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Speaker 2: to one right now. Yeah, well, I'm gonna probably put

356
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Speaker 2: that in after the show. Maybe not money. What's what's

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Speaker 2: the drawing? O bat plus one twenty one second?

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Speaker 3: This is riveting, riveting audio for everyone listening.

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Speaker 1: Wow, plus one twenty on the drama line for jo

360
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Speaker 1: Red Hot Roma.

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Speaker 3: All right, any other questions anything?

362
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Speaker 2: No, I've got nothing on this man. I mean again,

363
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Speaker 2: it's like Saturdays am. I'm not gonna watch soccer. I

364
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Speaker 2: mean I don't, I'm gathering, but yeah, I'll be watching

365
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Speaker 2: the I mean it's a great like a card, so

366
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Speaker 2: I'll be tuned in there. But yeah, I just like

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Speaker 2: Leicester City unlucky. I guess you could say today to

368
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Speaker 2: not win, but they also got dominated the entire second half,

369
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Speaker 2: similar to the Newcastle match. Yes, they conceded two stoppage

370
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Speaker 2: time goals that turned four points into one in the

371
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Speaker 2: sense that they lost to Newcastle and then lost to

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Speaker 2: or tied Everton today, but they didn't deserve results in

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Speaker 2: either of those games. So I'm not going to say

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Speaker 2: like they're they you know, their luck is turning against

375
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Speaker 2: them and like they're kind of evening out in the

376
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Speaker 2: regression point of view because they played badly and everything

377
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Speaker 2: they created came on quick strike stuff and it's just

378
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Speaker 2: hard to get against Villa. So yeah, I don't have

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Speaker 2: a strong opinion here.

380
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Speaker 3: The twelve thirty pm kickoff is Brentford. They're plus three

381
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Speaker 3: ten hostings Spurs odds on minus one ten. The draw

382
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Speaker 3: is plus through sixty. Yeah, Brentford they're continuing to roll.

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Speaker 3: They were off in the midweek they're three oh to

384
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Speaker 3: ohero in the last three eightals four two goals against,

385
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Speaker 3: six point four expected goals, three point oh three expectacles

386
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Speaker 3: against Spurs, finally ran into their defensive regression that was

387
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Speaker 3: coming against Brighton, didn't score and Brighton were full value

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Speaker 3: for that win. So hats off to them. And just

389
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Speaker 3: since Christian Erickson has come to Brighton, excuse we've come

390
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Speaker 3: to Brentford the new Brighton. They're five zero two wins

391
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Speaker 3: draw loss with fourteen goals for seven goals against in

392
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Speaker 3: a plus zero point four or five expected gold differential.

393
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Speaker 3: And now he gets to play his former team. We've

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Speaker 3: talked about it a lot on the show. Brentford terrific

395
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Speaker 3: at home and he spurs like they're still running hot offensively,

396
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Speaker 3: like there's still regression to come for this team and

397
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Speaker 3: this is just a tricky spot. Brentford punch up really,

398
00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:40,080
Speaker 3: really well. They have wins over Chelsea, they have a

399
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Speaker 3: win over Arsenal and a draw against Liverpool, a close

400
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Speaker 3: one against City, a close loss. So yeah, I have

401
00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:48,040
Speaker 3: no problem taking Brentford at over three to one at

402
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Speaker 3: home here bj back on the bas absolutely.

403
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Speaker 1: Speaking of strong opinions, I love Brentford in this spot.

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00:18:55,880 --> 00:18:59,439
Speaker 1: So they have been We've talked about it a ton

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Speaker 1: of times, but they've been so so good at the

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Speaker 1: Brentford Community Staium. But not only that, they've been really

407
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Speaker 1: good against the top seven teams in England plus one

408
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Speaker 1: point seven expect to goal differential against the top seven

409
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Speaker 1: at the Brentford Community Stadium. The thing that I like

410
00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:15,359
Speaker 1: about in this matchup for Brentford is they tend to

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Speaker 1: struggle when they play teams that can press them successfully

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Speaker 1: and at a high rate. So they're going to face

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Speaker 1: a Tottenham team that is really providing no resistance whatsoever

414
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Speaker 1: right now. I mean they only had a twenty three

415
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Speaker 1: point five percent pressure success rate against Brighton this past weekend.

416
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Speaker 1: I mean Brighton held fifty two percent possession, outshot them

417
00:19:33,840 --> 00:19:36,520
Speaker 1: twelve to five, twenty three touches in the penalty eric

418
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Speaker 1: apparently thirteen for Spurs. They absolutely deserved all three points

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Speaker 1: against Tottenham at home. And I think it's just a

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Speaker 1: story of negative aggression hitting Tottenham when it really should.

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00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:48,359
Speaker 1: I mean we talked about it last week. Twenty one

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Speaker 1: goals off of thirteen point two expected. I mean, this

423
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Speaker 1: is what happens. So this is another spot where I

424
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Speaker 1: believe that negative aggression is going to continue because Brentford's

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00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:01,200
Speaker 1: just been in an incredible form and the expected goals

426
00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:04,119
Speaker 1: numbers back up plus three point five expected gold of

427
00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:06,600
Speaker 1: French hold their last six matches, so I can't even

428
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Speaker 1: get close there on the number I have taught them

429
00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:11,760
Speaker 1: projected at plus one fifty. So I love Brentford plus

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Speaker 1: half a golt minus one o five.

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Speaker 3: I think we see this embedding across all sports. There

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Speaker 3: is a must win text. This is a must win

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Speaker 3: game for Spurs. It's a meaningless game. You know, in

434
00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:26,280
Speaker 3: the grand scheme of things for Brentford, you'll see a

435
00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:28,200
Speaker 3: lot of times when teams are maybe down like two

436
00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:30,520
Speaker 3: to nothing in a best of seven playoff series. If

437
00:20:30,520 --> 00:20:32,280
Speaker 3: they go down three to nothing, you know the series

438
00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:35,199
Speaker 3: is basically over. And book makers know that people will say, oh,

439
00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:37,600
Speaker 3: they're not going to go down three nothing, and we'll

440
00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:39,800
Speaker 3: bake that into the price. And I think that's what's

441
00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:43,000
Speaker 3: happening here with Tindam. People bookmakers have baked in that.

442
00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:47,280
Speaker 3: People know that Spurs need to win this match at

443
00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:50,120
Speaker 3: the very very least get a draw to keep pace

444
00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:54,679
Speaker 3: with Arsenal and keep United at length. Here or you know,

445
00:20:54,760 --> 00:20:56,800
Speaker 3: touching distance in the race of the top four. So

446
00:20:57,280 --> 00:20:59,640
Speaker 3: I think that's why we're getting a decent number here

447
00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:02,719
Speaker 3: on an inform Brentford team. Like usually when teams are

448
00:21:02,760 --> 00:21:04,360
Speaker 3: in this good at form, we'll start to see book

449
00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:07,680
Speaker 3: makers over. Yeah, not the case here, Anthony, Are you

450
00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:08,240
Speaker 3: gonna do it?

451
00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:10,920
Speaker 2: Yeah? I'm on the Bees, like I have to play

452
00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:13,439
Speaker 2: it at my number. I only make Spurs plus one thirty.

453
00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:15,600
Speaker 2: Not quite you know, as down on them as BJ

454
00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:18,240
Speaker 2: is hater, but yeah.

455
00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:18,840
Speaker 1: I mean yes.

456
00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:23,760
Speaker 2: But Brentford at home this year, I mean we've talked

457
00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:26,160
Speaker 2: about it at nauseum. Put the numbers behind it. They're

458
00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:28,639
Speaker 2: plus point six two at home this year expected gold difference.

459
00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:30,840
Speaker 2: That's since January one, if you take it back to the

460
00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:33,480
Speaker 2: entire season, plus point six. So they've were pretty steadily

461
00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:35,480
Speaker 2: consistently good at home. And we even talked about this,

462
00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:38,280
Speaker 2: like they had the drop off for sure performance that

463
00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:40,639
Speaker 2: led probably through the winter months where they just like

464
00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:43,399
Speaker 2: weren't quite as good defensively and they struggled, they had

465
00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:45,560
Speaker 2: some injury issues. They've come out of that looking well,

466
00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:47,840
Speaker 2: they started playing better and then the results came a

467
00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:50,919
Speaker 2: few weeks later, after a couple unfortunate, unlucky losses. But

468
00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:53,760
Speaker 2: you get into the numbers, right, Their actual goal difference

469
00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:55,760
Speaker 2: at home is actually negative, which is insane to think

470
00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:57,680
Speaker 2: about when you consider how well they've played at home

471
00:21:57,880 --> 00:21:59,160
Speaker 2: and then we go to todden them on the road.

472
00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:02,360
Speaker 2: And this is headlined by the Villa win two weeks ago.

473
00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:07,480
Speaker 2: Villa or chiemy Tottenham. Away from home this season we'll

474
00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:10,879
Speaker 2: say just Antonio Conte time, because I don't really acknowledge

475
00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:13,919
Speaker 2: the new No Spirito Santo era as relevant anymore. But

476
00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:16,840
Speaker 2: plus point twenty four expected gole difference away from home,

477
00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:19,240
Speaker 2: it's still good, like a pretty good Premier League team.

478
00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:22,199
Speaker 2: But again, how well they run defensively? Conceding about one

479
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:24,200
Speaker 2: point three to five xtually or ninety so the defense

480
00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:26,560
Speaker 2: is not traveled that well. The attack has traveled, the

481
00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:29,240
Speaker 2: defense is not there can still conceding one and about

482
00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:31,840
Speaker 2: a third goals and they've only actually conceded about one goal,

483
00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:34,360
Speaker 2: So some regression coming there for the defense. I don't

484
00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:37,160
Speaker 2: hate a Branford team total as well, you're not gonna

485
00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:39,119
Speaker 2: get a good beat tots number, but that would be

486
00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:41,119
Speaker 2: a way to play this. But I'm playing these plus

487
00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:43,800
Speaker 2: a half don't hate them on the money line as well,

488
00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:46,720
Speaker 2: But yeah, I think it's going to be a really

489
00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:49,679
Speaker 2: tight top four race. This could be the weekend the

490
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:52,520
Speaker 2: de pendulum swings back toward Arsenal, and then we'll get

491
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:54,480
Speaker 2: one more swing in the next couple of weeks before

492
00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:56,120
Speaker 2: we get the big showed out on May twelfth. I'm

493
00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:58,520
Speaker 2: very excited for it, and it's basically fifty fifty at

494
00:22:58,560 --> 00:23:00,359
Speaker 2: this point. If you look at five thirty, they've got

495
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:03,000
Speaker 2: it fifty to forty nine. So it's going to be

496
00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:06,320
Speaker 2: a lot of fun. I haven't checked the odds on

497
00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:08,040
Speaker 2: what the top four race is. I don't think they're

498
00:23:08,119 --> 00:23:11,679
Speaker 2: upright now because of what just went down today. But nevertheless,

499
00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 2: it's going to be a crazy final few weeks between

500
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:17,199
Speaker 2: that and the title race and the relegation battle. We

501
00:23:17,240 --> 00:23:20,400
Speaker 2: will talk and the relegation battles battles and look, we've

502
00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:21,600
Speaker 2: all got dogs in the fight.

503
00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 1: You know, we all went in the back of the

504
00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:26,920
Speaker 1: net from Charleston today. I in my mind I said

505
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:29,040
Speaker 1: that's the goal that keeps Everton up.

506
00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:32,320
Speaker 3: We'll get to that because there's a chance that Burnley

507
00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:38,560
Speaker 3: is two points ahead of Everdon. They play Liverpool all right, absolutely, yeah,

508
00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:41,440
Speaker 3: of course before we get there. Nine am on Sunday,

509
00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:44,920
Speaker 3: Chelsea MNUS won ninety west Ham plus five fifty. The

510
00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:48,639
Speaker 3: draw here is plus three thirty. Chelsea had just a

511
00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:51,400
Speaker 3: wild match against Arsenal in which they lost and it

512
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:54,840
Speaker 3: just came undone. And you do wonder if after everything

513
00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:57,560
Speaker 3: they've been through the season on the field, off the field,

514
00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:01,240
Speaker 3: the fact that they played Champions League final, a lot

515
00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:03,960
Speaker 3: of their players that went to the Euros, it's maybe

516
00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:05,840
Speaker 3: everything is just you know, get a catch up to

517
00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:07,960
Speaker 3: them and they'll just say, we're on the beach. Third

518
00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:10,040
Speaker 3: place is good. We'll focus on the FA Cup final

519
00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:13,359
Speaker 3: in a couple of weeks and hope that they get

520
00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:17,320
Speaker 3: their silverware that way. Since January first, for west Ham,

521
00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:21,720
Speaker 3: they are completely mediocre. Six wins, five losses, three draws

522
00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:25,480
Speaker 3: in fourteen matches, eighteen goals for eighteen goals against, and

523
00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:29,760
Speaker 3: their expectacles is basically bang on as well. So this

524
00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:32,879
Speaker 3: is just a team that wins, one loses, one draws,

525
00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:35,520
Speaker 3: one wins, a couple, loses a couple and it is

526
00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:37,600
Speaker 3: a tough spot for west Ham. I think if west

527
00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:41,240
Speaker 3: Ham didn't have their match coming on Thursday against Frankfurt

528
00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:43,760
Speaker 3: a Europa League semi final, which is a huge deal

529
00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:46,680
Speaker 3: for them. I would be a little bit more interested,

530
00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:49,200
Speaker 3: but both these teams in these weird spots makes this

531
00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:51,760
Speaker 3: one a pass for me. And I could see it

532
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:54,440
Speaker 3: going off the rails pretty quickly because both of these

533
00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:58,080
Speaker 3: defenses look a little out of sorts. B jannything here

534
00:24:58,240 --> 00:24:59,160
Speaker 3: Chelsea and west Ham.

535
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:02,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, like Chelsea unspread minus one and minus one p five.

536
00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:04,320
Speaker 1: I mean, it was a bad performance today from Chelsea.

537
00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 1: I mean, there's no denying that. But this is a

538
00:25:06,520 --> 00:25:08,320
Speaker 1: really good spot for them. They've been, like you better,

539
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:10,720
Speaker 1: They've been playing a ton of soccer, so it's not

540
00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 1: shocking that, you know, they're essentially coming off of a

541
00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:18,360
Speaker 1: f Cup semi final win over Crystal Palace on the

542
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:21,560
Speaker 1: heels of a three to two win in Madrid, that

543
00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:23,119
Speaker 1: they were going to have a tad a little bit

544
00:25:23,160 --> 00:25:25,680
Speaker 1: of a leftown spot. Well, here's a great rebound spot

545
00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:28,520
Speaker 1: against a west Ham team that really just hasn't been

546
00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:30,240
Speaker 1: good at all. I mean, they had a good performance

547
00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:32,960
Speaker 1: against Burnley after they went down. I thought Burnley was

548
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:35,080
Speaker 1: the better team for the first half of that one

549
00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:37,320
Speaker 1: that west Ham. Once they went down, they kind of

550
00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:39,600
Speaker 1: kicked it into high gear created two point eight expected goals.

551
00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:42,160
Speaker 1: That was only a second time in their last eleven

552
00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:44,439
Speaker 1: matches that they've created over two expected goals. So the

553
00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:46,160
Speaker 1: offense that we fell in love with the first half

554
00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 1: of the season just isn't there right now. I mean,

555
00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:51,119
Speaker 1: they're only averaging one point zero five expected goals per

556
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:55,200
Speaker 1: ninety minutes since January twenty second, and their defense hasn't

557
00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:57,640
Speaker 1: been good either over that time, fan one point four

558
00:25:57,840 --> 00:26:00,160
Speaker 1: expectables allowed for match. And to make matters worse, they're

559
00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:02,119
Speaker 1: going to go into this match without their best defender

560
00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:05,359
Speaker 1: Kurt Zuma and Isa diap Is out, So that means

561
00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:09,240
Speaker 1: either Declan Rice or Vladimir sous Fall or somebody else

562
00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:11,000
Speaker 1: is going to have to play out of position at

563
00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:14,000
Speaker 1: center back against the third best offense in the Premier League.

564
00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:16,600
Speaker 1: So I have Chelsea spread projected at minus one point

565
00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:18,840
Speaker 1: two to three. So this is just a value play

566
00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:21,200
Speaker 1: for me. I like Chelsea minus one minus one five

567
00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:25,080
Speaker 1: because they're not set in stone in third place right now.

568
00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:27,960
Speaker 1: I mean, if they trip up here, it gets a

569
00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:31,080
Speaker 1: tad interesting. If both Arsenal and Tottenham win this weekend.

570
00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:33,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I guess it's you know, it's true, like, but

571
00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:34,520
Speaker 3: they to.

572
00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:36,040
Speaker 1: Seal It's like if they if they win this one,

573
00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:37,720
Speaker 1: they pretty much seal it exactly.

574
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:40,040
Speaker 2: I think they're fine, but I'm worried the wheels may

575
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:40,440
Speaker 2: come off.

576
00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:41,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think.

577
00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:44,040
Speaker 3: I think at some point, For example, I think Everyden

578
00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:46,320
Speaker 3: has a game against Chelsea a week from Sunday, and

579
00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 3: I think that's a good break for everything scheduling wise,

580
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:51,480
Speaker 3: to get them catch them then, because then they should

581
00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:54,400
Speaker 3: have everything kind of set for next year in terms

582
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:58,400
Speaker 3: of the Premier League. Anthony, Uh, you're fading both defenses,

583
00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:00,560
Speaker 3: which does seem like a pretty good idea on the

584
00:27:00,600 --> 00:27:01,120
Speaker 3: service here.

585
00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:06,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know Chelsea, I mean Chelsea defensive progression. They

586
00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:08,720
Speaker 2: have fallen off a cliff defensively, I mean, what the

587
00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:10,560
Speaker 2: hell is going on? Like, I didn't think it'd be

588
00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:13,760
Speaker 2: this bad, but Brentford four goals, Real Madrid five over

589
00:27:14,040 --> 00:27:15,720
Speaker 2: two legs. Granted it was only like two and a

590
00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:20,080
Speaker 2: half expected, but still a lot of weird miscues going

591
00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:22,040
Speaker 2: on at the back. And then today, I mean three

592
00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 2: goals plus the late penalty that I'm not sure how

593
00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:27,840
Speaker 2: it was called, but it's over, you know, one and

594
00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:32,560
Speaker 2: a half non penalty XG for Arsenal, So some major

595
00:27:32,720 --> 00:27:36,320
Speaker 2: major red flags, and what's the motivation for this Chelsea

596
00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:39,159
Speaker 2: team to continue this incredible defensive run they were on

597
00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:41,480
Speaker 2: for the last year. You know, they win the Champions League,

598
00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:43,960
Speaker 2: they put up these historically good defensive numbers. They have

599
00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:45,760
Speaker 2: a little bit of a blip, they right the ship.

600
00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:48,760
Speaker 2: Now they're kind of coasting. I mean, they have one

601
00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:50,879
Speaker 2: match left this year that probably has a lot of

602
00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:52,560
Speaker 2: meeting and it's the FA Cup Final. It's a chance

603
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:54,359
Speaker 2: for them to get a trophy and I expect them

604
00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:56,679
Speaker 2: to be building towards that for the next few weeks.

605
00:27:57,080 --> 00:27:59,880
Speaker 2: But I mean this Chelsea team could be going off

606
00:27:59,880 --> 00:28:02,160
Speaker 2: of cliff and west Ham has already fallen. I mean

607
00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:05,760
Speaker 2: they are hanging around for six. I think they may

608
00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:10,120
Speaker 2: nip it because of United's malaise, but this west Ham

609
00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:12,320
Speaker 2: attack has fallen off a cliff. And that was one

610
00:28:12,320 --> 00:28:13,920
Speaker 2: thing I was I was talking about, you know, weeks

611
00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:17,000
Speaker 2: ago and saying like I'm concerned about them. Well, I

612
00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:20,800
Speaker 2: think this game is one of those classic prem games

613
00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:22,600
Speaker 2: when you get down toward the end of the season.

614
00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:25,920
Speaker 2: Both defenses are a little bit off. Like you mentioned,

615
00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:28,360
Speaker 2: diap and Zuma are both out. I think this game

616
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:30,639
Speaker 2: has the potential to be very open, and I project

617
00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:32,679
Speaker 2: value on the over to begin with. Even though I'm

618
00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:34,600
Speaker 2: not particularly high on the west Ham team at all,

619
00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:37,800
Speaker 2: I do think Chelsea's attack with Werner has more punch

620
00:28:37,880 --> 00:28:40,680
Speaker 2: to it. Generally their defense is regressing. I project two

621
00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:43,320
Speaker 2: point seven to two goals and I'm going with the

622
00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:46,520
Speaker 2: over two and a half. It's my best bet this weekend.

623
00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:50,680
Speaker 3: Another nine am kickoff. This one is a big one Burnly.

624
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:54,360
Speaker 3: They're plus one ninety hosting Wolverhampton plus one seventy. The

625
00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:56,760
Speaker 3: draw here is plus two a five. We are recording

626
00:28:56,760 --> 00:28:58,640
Speaker 3: this on Wednesday night as we always do, which means

627
00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:01,800
Speaker 3: we haven't had the luxture of watching Burnley Southampton. But

628
00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:04,880
Speaker 3: as it stands right now, Burnley four points behind Everdon,

629
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:07,320
Speaker 3: with the two of them have the same goal differential

630
00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:10,160
Speaker 3: and same games played. Obviously Burnley will have one more

631
00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:12,600
Speaker 3: game played than Everton. As we go into the weekend,

632
00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:16,240
Speaker 3: it's a big spot for Burnley because everything's playing Liverpool

633
00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:18,680
Speaker 3: at anfield where they're fourteen to one underdogs. We'll talk

634
00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:21,560
Speaker 3: about that one a little bit. And Wolverhampton are one

635
00:29:21,600 --> 00:29:23,720
Speaker 3: of these few teams in the in that mushy middle

636
00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:26,400
Speaker 3: where they don't have much to play for, and Wolves

637
00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:28,760
Speaker 3: are they've been inconsistent eight point six and the least

638
00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:31,800
Speaker 3: fourteen twenty goals for fourteen goals against. If you look

639
00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:34,680
Speaker 3: at the expectacles you flip it, it's fourteen expectacles for

640
00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:36,120
Speaker 3: twenty expectacles against.

641
00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:36,880
Speaker 1: Yeah.

642
00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:38,520
Speaker 3: There, I mean, it's it's there.

643
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:40,280
Speaker 2: There's always going to be a while.

644
00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:42,360
Speaker 3: There's gonna be a team or two every year, you know,

645
00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:45,800
Speaker 3: like that, just do this, and Wolves and unless they're

646
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:48,800
Speaker 3: this season, are are those teams and Spurs a little bit.

647
00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:52,960
Speaker 3: But Burnley as the problem. The problem here is the

648
00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:56,000
Speaker 3: problem here is that Burnley's defensive metrics have just been

649
00:29:56,520 --> 00:29:59,640
Speaker 3: a real zoo. Two point twenty six expectacles against per

650
00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:04,480
Speaker 3: match the last three that includes the Everton match, west

651
00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:07,360
Speaker 3: Ham and Norwich. That west Ham match was the first

652
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:10,080
Speaker 3: one without Sewan Ditsch and they still were giving up

653
00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:12,760
Speaker 3: chances left and right. So I don't expect them just

654
00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:16,600
Speaker 3: to get better defensively. They're going to have endeavor. They're

655
00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:19,320
Speaker 3: gonna be pretty and tough to play against because they're

656
00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:22,560
Speaker 3: gonna play hard and they're fighting for their Premier League survival.

657
00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:24,840
Speaker 3: But they're still giving up way too many chances that

658
00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:27,840
Speaker 3: west Ham game. Yeah, sure west Ham was lucky to

659
00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:29,560
Speaker 3: not be two nailed down, but at the end of

660
00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:32,320
Speaker 3: that match we talked about it. Nick Pope's made two

661
00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:34,920
Speaker 3: huge saves and otherwise we're talking about a very different

662
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:37,960
Speaker 3: look here. Also, it's Burnley's fifth game in eighteen days.

663
00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:41,080
Speaker 3: Wolves have been off for quite a bit, so since

664
00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:43,960
Speaker 3: April eighth, so almost two weeks by the time this game,

665
00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:45,920
Speaker 3: or more than two weeks then this game played. So

666
00:30:46,360 --> 00:30:49,240
Speaker 3: there are some signals here that point away from Burnley.

667
00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 3: But it's the Wolves. Regression numbers are just they're frightening

668
00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:56,200
Speaker 3: me away from a bed here. Meanwhile, Anthony, you've turned

669
00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:58,160
Speaker 3: into a huge Burnley fan all of a sudden and

670
00:30:58,720 --> 00:30:59,520
Speaker 3: are back on them.

671
00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:03,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, cash on him. Last weekend it really should have

672
00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:05,000
Speaker 2: been up to Neil, really should have won that game.

673
00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:07,280
Speaker 2: Then they were hanging on for dear life. I think

674
00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:09,680
Speaker 2: the lack of dice maybe played its role in those

675
00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:12,600
Speaker 2: final tennish minutes because the Burnley we know would have

676
00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:16,040
Speaker 2: eleven guys behind the ball, they would be slogging it out.

677
00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:18,640
Speaker 2: That Burnley team was not doing that. I mean they

678
00:31:18,760 --> 00:31:20,920
Speaker 2: were sending four or five guys forward on the counter.

679
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:23,080
Speaker 2: They had a couple of half chances, not really like

680
00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:25,640
Speaker 2: a clear chance, but then they were getting run up

681
00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:28,160
Speaker 2: on the counter by west Ham, and you know it's

682
00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:31,280
Speaker 2: where west Ham's most dangerous. So tactically a pretty bad

683
00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:33,760
Speaker 2: mistake by Burnley that they got away with and they

684
00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:36,040
Speaker 2: got off the hook. Good big up Nick Pope for

685
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:38,239
Speaker 2: saving the day. I would have been very upset if

686
00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:41,080
Speaker 2: I had lost. But I'm targeting the Burnley attack here.

687
00:31:41,560 --> 00:31:43,640
Speaker 2: I don't like you mentioned them defensive numbers. I don't

688
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:46,440
Speaker 2: have to repeat them like there's major concerns about this defense.

689
00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:49,320
Speaker 2: They've been terrible all year. They're not luck boxing like

690
00:31:49,360 --> 00:31:53,200
Speaker 2: they usually do. They're not overcoming their bad XG numbers

691
00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:55,560
Speaker 2: by blocking a ton of shots or having a crazy

692
00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:57,480
Speaker 2: good season from Nick Pope, So I don't really want

693
00:31:57,520 --> 00:31:59,360
Speaker 2: their defense to be involved in this. In fact, I

694
00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:01,280
Speaker 2: hope they can see goal or two to help my bet.

695
00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:04,120
Speaker 2: I'm taking Burnley on the team total over one and

696
00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:06,040
Speaker 2: a half at plus two fifteen, chasing a bit of

697
00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:09,360
Speaker 2: a price here. Again, I think Burnley I liked with

698
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:10,800
Speaker 2: the you know in this case, you know, all the

699
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:12,680
Speaker 2: aggression they showed at the end of that match last

700
00:32:12,680 --> 00:32:15,200
Speaker 2: week in a won one game. I like that as

701
00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:19,120
Speaker 2: a better here against this Wolves defense, they've overperformed by

702
00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:22,520
Speaker 2: about twenty goals. Ten of that, as Jose saw. Credit

703
00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:26,120
Speaker 2: to him. The other ten cannot be explained by good defense,

704
00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:29,800
Speaker 2: good goalkeeping or anything. It's just teams taking bad shots

705
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:33,120
Speaker 2: against them. Their post shot XG is way lower than

706
00:32:33,120 --> 00:32:35,719
Speaker 2: their actual XG allowed. So that's telling you that teams

707
00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:38,680
Speaker 2: are getting on front of goal against Wolves and then

708
00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:41,280
Speaker 2: not putting shots on target at the rate they should be.

709
00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:45,600
Speaker 2: So that tells me that they're going to regress and

710
00:32:45,640 --> 00:32:47,960
Speaker 2: maybe they never will. And look, that's one another thing too,

711
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:49,880
Speaker 2: Like we talk about REGRESSI because we're trying to get

712
00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:52,479
Speaker 2: small edges here on the market, and like you know,

713
00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:54,680
Speaker 2: bounces over the course of a thirty eight game Premier

714
00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:56,440
Speaker 2: League season ten to go back and forth and back

715
00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:58,760
Speaker 2: and forth. That doesn't mean it's going to come this Sunday,

716
00:32:58,800 --> 00:33:00,560
Speaker 2: or that it's ever going to come this year for Wolves.

717
00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:02,120
Speaker 2: Like you said, there's always one or two teams that

718
00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:05,120
Speaker 2: just defy logic, like Brightened in the reverse last year

719
00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:08,120
Speaker 2: and now it's Wolves this year. I don't know that

720
00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:09,960
Speaker 2: it'll come, but at plus two fifteen. I'm willing to

721
00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:12,120
Speaker 2: take a shot that Burnley is going to open this

722
00:33:12,240 --> 00:33:13,960
Speaker 2: up and make this a back and forth game, similar

723
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:15,760
Speaker 2: to what we saw with Everton, similar what we saw

724
00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:18,760
Speaker 2: with west Ham. They're not playing at the typical Burnley

725
00:33:18,800 --> 00:33:21,640
Speaker 2: grinded out kind of style, and so this could all

726
00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:24,080
Speaker 2: change depending on what happens tomorrow. But I'm probably gonna

727
00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:25,880
Speaker 2: be locking in over one and a half at plus

728
00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:26,440
Speaker 2: two fifteen.

729
00:33:26,880 --> 00:33:29,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you, Anthony. I'm actually this is a

730
00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:30,800
Speaker 1: late ad for me. I didn't put it on the sheet,

731
00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:34,640
Speaker 1: but I do like over two goals is minus one twenty.

732
00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:40,280
Speaker 1: Burnley has allowed more than one point five expect last

733
00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:44,440
Speaker 1: seven matches like this is. We mentioned it, but they

734
00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:46,840
Speaker 1: don't have the luxury of sitting back anymore. That's why

735
00:33:46,880 --> 00:33:49,880
Speaker 1: you see them just sending guys forward because a loss

736
00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:52,240
Speaker 1: doesn't really you know, the one point doesn't really do

737
00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:55,960
Speaker 1: much for them right now. They need they need three points.

738
00:33:56,160 --> 00:33:59,560
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna wait and see what happens against Southampton

739
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:03,880
Speaker 1: on Thursday. If that match gets chaotic, which I have

740
00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:05,480
Speaker 1: over two and a half goals, so I hope it does,

741
00:34:06,120 --> 00:34:08,520
Speaker 1: you'll probably see me be adding over two goals at

742
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:12,040
Speaker 1: minus one twenty during the match, depending on what kind

743
00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:15,680
Speaker 1: of tactics Mike Jackson and Ben me have all cooked

744
00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:19,279
Speaker 1: up over there. But I mean, I don't really know

745
00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:21,359
Speaker 1: what to make Wolves and where they're at because they're

746
00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:23,200
Speaker 1: still fighting like they have a.

747
00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:25,399
Speaker 2: Really it's got a real good shot at top seven.

748
00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:27,880
Speaker 1: Ye, I mean they're probably going Yeah, they're probably going

749
00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:31,040
Speaker 1: to be it's not hard. Yeah, they'll probably be seventh,

750
00:34:31,040 --> 00:34:33,320
Speaker 1: and they honestly have a little bit of an outside

751
00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:36,839
Speaker 1: shot at top six if United just completely falls off

752
00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 1: so or even west Ham, So it'll be interesting. I

753
00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:42,480
Speaker 1: the last time these two teams played, I remember it

754
00:34:42,560 --> 00:34:44,480
Speaker 1: vividly because it was during the midweek and it was

755
00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:46,919
Speaker 1: maybe the most boring match I've watched in a really,

756
00:34:46,920 --> 00:34:49,719
Speaker 1: really long time. It was zero zero Burnley had made

757
00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:52,600
Speaker 1: no effort at going forward, so that just kind of

758
00:34:52,600 --> 00:34:54,319
Speaker 1: sticks in the back of my mind. But we're in

759
00:34:54,360 --> 00:34:57,879
Speaker 1: a different situation now, so any type of over in

760
00:34:57,920 --> 00:35:02,040
Speaker 1: this game I think has a good of hitting. So

761
00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:04,280
Speaker 1: I'll be on over two goals at minus one twenty

762
00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:07,360
Speaker 1: depending on what happens in Southampton Burnley on Thursday.

763
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:09,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you look at the United schedule, they still

764
00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:12,800
Speaker 2: have a brutal games left. And then you look at Wolves.

765
00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:15,799
Speaker 2: They still have Burnley, Brighton and Norwich. They do have

766
00:35:15,840 --> 00:35:18,239
Speaker 2: to play Chelsea Liverpool in City, so they'll probably lose those.

767
00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:20,040
Speaker 2: But if they were to win three games, you know,

768
00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:21,920
Speaker 2: all of a sudden you're looking at the numbers, You're like, uh,

769
00:35:22,040 --> 00:35:24,640
Speaker 2: you know, they get up into that range where if

770
00:35:24,680 --> 00:35:27,600
Speaker 2: west Ham or United Cliff dives, which is very possible,

771
00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:31,120
Speaker 2: then they could be in the mix. West hammon they're

772
00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:31,800
Speaker 2: still motivated.

773
00:35:32,200 --> 00:35:36,400
Speaker 1: West tam has Chelsea, Arsenal, Norwich, Man City and Brighton left,

774
00:35:36,600 --> 00:35:37,319
Speaker 1: so that's.

775
00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:37,839
Speaker 2: A brutal run.

776
00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:39,399
Speaker 1: It's both from brutal run.

777
00:35:39,520 --> 00:35:42,279
Speaker 3: So I mean, yeah, they have the Europa League too, so.

778
00:35:42,719 --> 00:35:45,000
Speaker 2: Of course we Ham. West Ham has a probably twenty

779
00:35:45,000 --> 00:35:47,359
Speaker 2: five percent chance of the Champions League just by winning

780
00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:49,160
Speaker 2: the Europa League, which they're favorite to make the final.

781
00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:51,880
Speaker 3: Now, so all right, let's head to the South coast

782
00:35:51,880 --> 00:35:55,560
Speaker 3: here for derby between Brighton and Southampton. Like I just said,

783
00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:59,440
Speaker 3: Southampton plays Burnley and Thursday after we're recording this, Brighton's

784
00:35:59,440 --> 00:36:01,759
Speaker 3: plus one two money at the moment, Saints coming back

785
00:36:01,760 --> 00:36:04,200
Speaker 3: plus two thirty five in the draw plus two forty

786
00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:07,640
Speaker 3: Southampton one, one and four and they're last six four

787
00:36:07,680 --> 00:36:11,640
Speaker 3: goals for fifteen goals against, but coming off an impressive one.

788
00:36:11,800 --> 00:36:15,480
Speaker 3: So they're also like they're they're they're actually they're underperforming.

789
00:36:15,480 --> 00:36:18,399
Speaker 3: They're xtg in that span by four goals and three

790
00:36:18,520 --> 00:36:21,040
Speaker 3: four goals on offense, three goals on defense. So there

791
00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:23,680
Speaker 3: there is some sort of regression coming here or not.

792
00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:25,800
Speaker 3: Like I think, I think this is a tough spot

793
00:36:25,920 --> 00:36:30,600
Speaker 3: for for Brighton. I know we we we generally like them,

794
00:36:31,320 --> 00:36:33,720
Speaker 3: we like them as underdogs, but as a home favorite.

795
00:36:33,719 --> 00:36:36,160
Speaker 3: Here I guess to Southampton team, which is there's really

796
00:36:36,160 --> 00:36:39,080
Speaker 3: not that much between these two teams if you, if

797
00:36:39,080 --> 00:36:41,800
Speaker 3: you really do break it down and do trust Brighton

798
00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:45,200
Speaker 3: to pull this one off after a game against Arsenal

799
00:36:45,600 --> 00:36:48,080
Speaker 3: Spurs and City in which they want to and then

800
00:36:48,120 --> 00:36:50,040
Speaker 3: they gave it all in that City first half. It's

801
00:36:50,239 --> 00:36:52,640
Speaker 3: it's a natural letdown, spoty, even if it's yeah, even

802
00:36:52,680 --> 00:36:54,799
Speaker 3: if it's a derby. But I just think that this

803
00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:58,359
Speaker 3: is a pretty good opportunity to sell sell, sell, sell

804
00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:00,359
Speaker 3: me your Brighton stock, which we don't like to do here.

805
00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:01,960
Speaker 3: BJ you disagree though.

806
00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:04,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I have Brighton projected minus one on one,

807
00:37:04,280 --> 00:37:05,879
Speaker 1: so I do have some value on them. I think

808
00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:07,880
Speaker 1: this price is a tad cheap if you asked me

809
00:37:07,920 --> 00:37:09,879
Speaker 1: for giving how good this matchup is for them. I mean,

810
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:14,279
Speaker 1: they were bad against Man City for the whole second half. Today.

811
00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:16,239
Speaker 1: They were okay for the first half, but they didn't

812
00:37:16,239 --> 00:37:18,359
Speaker 1: really create much going forward, so you can't say that

813
00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:21,080
Speaker 1: they were good by any stretch. They were with al

814
00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:23,600
Speaker 1: Basuma who was on yellow cart suspension. He'll be back,

815
00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:27,120
Speaker 1: I believe, which is huge obviously for them. This is

816
00:37:27,120 --> 00:37:29,120
Speaker 1: just a really good matchup for a team that plays

817
00:37:29,280 --> 00:37:33,080
Speaker 1: really really well through pressure. I mean Brighten's fourth in

818
00:37:33,280 --> 00:37:36,480
Speaker 1: offensive pass per defensive action and pressure success rate allowed,

819
00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:39,600
Speaker 1: which is obviously huge against Southampton, who presses at one

820
00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:42,040
Speaker 1: of the highest rates in the Premier League. But the

821
00:37:42,040 --> 00:37:44,239
Speaker 1: big thing here is that Brighton is one of the

822
00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:46,600
Speaker 1: best set piece defenses in the Premier League. They all

823
00:37:46,640 --> 00:37:49,600
Speaker 1: around point zero eight x chep per set piece. That's

824
00:37:49,640 --> 00:37:53,040
Speaker 1: third best behind only City and Chelsea. Southampton's become very

825
00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:56,120
Speaker 1: very reliant on set pieces. I mean thirty six percent

826
00:37:56,160 --> 00:37:58,400
Speaker 1: of the goals have come off of set pieces. They have.

827
00:37:58,480 --> 00:37:59,960
Speaker 1: James Ward Prouse is one of the best free kick

828
00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:02,040
Speaker 1: takers in the Premier League, so it makes sense. But

829
00:38:02,080 --> 00:38:05,200
Speaker 1: they've only scored twenty one goals from open play this season.

830
00:38:05,239 --> 00:38:08,120
Speaker 1: I mentioned it, you know last podcast because the Southampton

831
00:38:08,160 --> 00:38:11,799
Speaker 1: match hasn't happened yet. But since January fifteenth, one point

832
00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:14,400
Speaker 1: sixty five expected goals allowed per match, which is seventeenth

833
00:38:14,440 --> 00:38:17,080
Speaker 1: in the Premier League. So this is the classic Brighton

834
00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:20,319
Speaker 1: spot where we have value. We bet them and they

835
00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:22,560
Speaker 1: win like two point one to point three on XG

836
00:38:22,600 --> 00:38:24,880
Speaker 1: and draws zero zero. But I gotta believe in the

837
00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:27,000
Speaker 1: Sea goals here I am projecting values, so give me

838
00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:28,279
Speaker 1: Brighton plus one twenty five.

839
00:38:28,640 --> 00:38:32,120
Speaker 3: Now we will move on main event time, the Merseyside

840
00:38:32,160 --> 00:38:37,400
Speaker 3: derby at Anfields, Liverpool prohibitive minus five hundred favorites Everton

841
00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:39,360
Speaker 3: fourteen to one on the three way money line. The

842
00:38:39,480 --> 00:38:42,360
Speaker 3: draw here is plus six or fifteen fourteen to one.

843
00:38:42,719 --> 00:38:44,560
Speaker 3: I'll be on it as a fan. I'm gonna have

844
00:38:44,600 --> 00:38:47,280
Speaker 3: a little bit of it, but just breaking it down

845
00:38:47,440 --> 00:38:49,919
Speaker 3: and handicapping it. Let's talk about evertt in on the road.

846
00:38:49,960 --> 00:38:53,400
Speaker 3: Fifteen road matches this season, one win, one three and

847
00:38:53,480 --> 00:38:57,160
Speaker 3: eleven win draw loss. Their last road point came against

848
00:38:57,239 --> 00:39:02,440
Speaker 3: Chelsea on December sixteenth. Road win came against Brighton on

849
00:39:02,600 --> 00:39:05,920
Speaker 3: August the twenty eighth, were four just about four months

850
00:39:05,920 --> 00:39:08,960
Speaker 3: away from that being a full calendar year since their

851
00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:14,319
Speaker 3: last road win. And we know what what Liverpool's been

852
00:39:14,400 --> 00:39:17,920
Speaker 3: up to overall at home on the road doesn't matter.

853
00:39:18,200 --> 00:39:20,840
Speaker 3: I do want to say one thing about that Liverpool

854
00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:24,799
Speaker 3: United match. Liverpool incredible first half. They took their foot

855
00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:27,000
Speaker 3: off the gas in the beginning of that second half,

856
00:39:27,400 --> 00:39:29,359
Speaker 3: gave up a couple of big chances, including won by

857
00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:32,680
Speaker 3: Marcus Rashford that then got struck struck from the records

858
00:39:32,719 --> 00:39:35,160
Speaker 3: because it was deemed that the flag came up late

859
00:39:35,200 --> 00:39:37,960
Speaker 3: and he wasn't he wasn't offside. Allison made a great save,

860
00:39:39,280 --> 00:39:41,920
Speaker 3: but it was just like there was another chance that

861
00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:46,480
Speaker 3: went wasted against Liverpool and at some point, at some point,

862
00:39:46,520 --> 00:39:48,880
Speaker 3: these are going to catch up to them. Meanwhile, Everton

863
00:39:48,960 --> 00:39:52,640
Speaker 3: are creating I mean these at home, especially which doesn't

864
00:39:53,080 --> 00:39:55,600
Speaker 3: you know pertaining to this particular instance, I guess considering

865
00:39:55,640 --> 00:39:58,520
Speaker 3: their splits, but they are creating scoring chances. For Charleston

866
00:39:58,560 --> 00:40:01,400
Speaker 3: had two sitters that he missed today before scoring. Seamus

867
00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:03,480
Speaker 3: Coleman had a big one. They could have scored three

868
00:40:03,520 --> 00:40:05,440
Speaker 3: or four against Leicester, which is why I think. I mean,

869
00:40:05,480 --> 00:40:07,520
Speaker 3: if you look at that match Everton and Lester, you

870
00:40:07,520 --> 00:40:10,279
Speaker 3: could argue win, draw loss for both those teams would

871
00:40:10,280 --> 00:40:12,879
Speaker 3: have been a fair result. And usually when you can

872
00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:15,840
Speaker 3: draw is the one that ends up being what happens.

873
00:40:16,120 --> 00:40:19,120
Speaker 3: So I think everything there's a chance here that they

874
00:40:19,160 --> 00:40:21,640
Speaker 3: can nick one or two and make a game of this,

875
00:40:22,080 --> 00:40:25,120
Speaker 3: especially because I think we're going to see an incredibly

876
00:40:25,440 --> 00:40:29,480
Speaker 3: conservative setup from Frank Lampard. Your Amina's back, so you're

877
00:40:29,480 --> 00:40:32,640
Speaker 3: gonna see Ben godfree ur Amina in the back four

878
00:40:32,920 --> 00:40:35,359
Speaker 3: with Fabian delf right in front of them. He didn't

879
00:40:35,400 --> 00:40:38,120
Speaker 3: he wasn't great today, but and then a lot you're

880
00:40:38,120 --> 00:40:40,200
Speaker 3: gonna He's gonna play you know, four four two, and

881
00:40:40,280 --> 00:40:42,479
Speaker 3: just they're just gonna sit back and lump balls ahead

882
00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:46,439
Speaker 3: to Solomon ron Don I'm assuming uh and just try

883
00:40:46,480 --> 00:40:48,880
Speaker 3: to go full sam Mi aler dice that way, I

884
00:40:48,880 --> 00:40:51,440
Speaker 3: guess Liverpool and they do have so much to play

885
00:40:51,480 --> 00:40:55,360
Speaker 3: for that maybe they frustrate him. That is a long shot,

886
00:40:55,640 --> 00:40:58,520
Speaker 3: and why it's fourteen to one on the money line. Anthony,

887
00:40:58,560 --> 00:41:00,640
Speaker 3: Though you do have a little bit of faith in

888
00:41:00,680 --> 00:41:01,600
Speaker 3: the topees.

889
00:41:01,239 --> 00:41:03,400
Speaker 2: Here, I have some faith in their attack. I have

890
00:41:03,400 --> 00:41:05,000
Speaker 2: no faith at all in the defense. I mean they

891
00:41:05,000 --> 00:41:08,640
Speaker 2: make it run out here. I think the market's you know,

892
00:41:08,800 --> 00:41:12,600
Speaker 2: inflating Liverpool a tad bit. You guys show a tiny

893
00:41:12,640 --> 00:41:15,480
Speaker 2: bit of value on Everton on the spread, but no

894
00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:18,359
Speaker 2: thanks to pass. As far as the team total goes,

895
00:41:18,719 --> 00:41:22,120
Speaker 2: you bet team total over one half minus one ten.

896
00:41:22,600 --> 00:41:25,280
Speaker 2: I think their attack is underrated with everybody coming back,

897
00:41:25,520 --> 00:41:27,000
Speaker 2: I think they're going to throw the kitchen sink at

898
00:41:27,000 --> 00:41:29,280
Speaker 2: Liverpool on the counter attack to try to create chances,

899
00:41:29,640 --> 00:41:31,399
Speaker 2: and I think they're gonna give a more inspired effort

900
00:41:31,440 --> 00:41:34,840
Speaker 2: than United did. So, Yes, Liverpool's defense absolute smothered United,

901
00:41:34,960 --> 00:41:38,080
Speaker 2: their midfields firing on all cylinders right now, like it

902
00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:39,800
Speaker 2: could be four or five to one, like I wouldn't

903
00:41:39,800 --> 00:41:41,759
Speaker 2: be shocked. But I do think Everton will break through

904
00:41:41,760 --> 00:41:43,760
Speaker 2: and get one. They did get eight shots in about

905
00:41:44,080 --> 00:41:46,840
Speaker 2: eight tenths of an expected goal point eight xg and

906
00:41:46,960 --> 00:41:48,719
Speaker 2: managed a goal in the last match. It was a

907
00:41:48,719 --> 00:41:51,359
Speaker 2: direct counter attack right up the gut, and I do

908
00:41:51,400 --> 00:41:53,600
Speaker 2: think they'll have some success there, enough success to get

909
00:41:53,640 --> 00:41:55,640
Speaker 2: on the board. Not enough for me to bet the

910
00:41:55,640 --> 00:41:57,719
Speaker 2: spread though, because I am concerned this could get out

911
00:41:57,719 --> 00:41:57,960
Speaker 2: of hand.

912
00:41:58,080 --> 00:42:00,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, an interesting spot for Liverpool too. It's a big

913
00:42:01,040 --> 00:42:03,360
Speaker 3: Derby and Clapp won't be rotating, but they do have

914
00:42:03,440 --> 00:42:05,560
Speaker 3: Champions League to look ahead to, and they've been playing

915
00:42:05,600 --> 00:42:07,479
Speaker 3: a ton of soccer as well. Like I said there,

916
00:42:07,600 --> 00:42:11,960
Speaker 3: you can make some arguments for evidence, but they're just

917
00:42:12,560 --> 00:42:15,080
Speaker 3: you know, they're not on a strong foundation. I would

918
00:42:15,320 --> 00:42:19,200
Speaker 3: I would say, to be fair, BJ, you you've you've

919
00:42:19,239 --> 00:42:23,040
Speaker 3: squared out last over the midweek it gains United liverpoolmight

920
00:42:23,120 --> 00:42:26,799
Speaker 3: just one and a half and check out sharked out. Yeah, right,

921
00:42:26,920 --> 00:42:27,759
Speaker 3: right back to it here.

922
00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:30,080
Speaker 1: Well, I'm a square, so I'm gonna square out again here.

923
00:42:30,239 --> 00:42:32,640
Speaker 1: I just I don't see how Everton hangs here. I

924
00:42:32,680 --> 00:42:35,360
Speaker 1: understand they've been better as of late. I mean plus

925
00:42:35,440 --> 00:42:38,400
Speaker 1: point three expected golden French from the last six matches

926
00:42:38,560 --> 00:42:43,719
Speaker 1: is improvement. But I mean Liverpool is the best team

927
00:42:43,760 --> 00:42:46,120
Speaker 1: in the world right now. I mean they're they're They've

928
00:42:46,160 --> 00:42:50,160
Speaker 1: won thirteen to fourteen million matches plus seventeen point five

929
00:42:50,239 --> 00:42:53,800
Speaker 1: expected golden ffrenchial in those fourteen matches. They've won eleven

930
00:42:53,840 --> 00:42:55,839
Speaker 1: straight at home in the Premier League with a plus

931
00:42:55,920 --> 00:43:00,359
Speaker 1: twenty five point nine expected goldiffrenchal. It's just insane how

932
00:43:00,400 --> 00:43:02,359
Speaker 1: good they are right now. I mean, Everton we I've

933
00:43:02,400 --> 00:43:04,719
Speaker 1: talked about him many times this year. They really struggle

934
00:43:05,000 --> 00:43:07,560
Speaker 1: when they have to play teams that press hide successfully.

935
00:43:07,600 --> 00:43:09,759
Speaker 1: I mean their eighteenth in offensive pass per defensive action

936
00:43:09,840 --> 00:43:13,200
Speaker 1: today they played a lesser team that doesn't press at

937
00:43:13,200 --> 00:43:16,720
Speaker 1: a very successful rate. Liverpool has three hundred and seventy

938
00:43:16,719 --> 00:43:19,480
Speaker 1: five high turnovers this season. That's sixty eight more than

939
00:43:19,480 --> 00:43:23,000
Speaker 1: anybody else in the Premier League. Everton has also conceded

940
00:43:23,040 --> 00:43:26,400
Speaker 1: the second most big scoring chances. Liverpool averages two point

941
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:30,440
Speaker 1: four big scoring chances per match and looks like Everton's

942
00:43:30,440 --> 00:43:32,879
Speaker 1: gonna be with out Dominie Calvert, Lewin and Andrews Townsend again.

943
00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:35,920
Speaker 1: So and Liverpool's fully healthy and able to rotate their squads. So,

944
00:43:36,000 --> 00:43:38,200
Speaker 1: I mean, I have Liverpool projected spread projected at minus

945
00:43:38,239 --> 00:43:40,560
Speaker 1: two point five, so minus two it even money. I'm

946
00:43:40,560 --> 00:43:42,719
Speaker 1: gonna square out and I'm just gonna keep I'm gonna

947
00:43:42,760 --> 00:43:46,160
Speaker 1: ride Liverpool until we see them against via Real.

948
00:43:46,760 --> 00:43:48,000
Speaker 2: You cannot wait for that.

949
00:43:48,400 --> 00:43:49,440
Speaker 1: Oh, it's gonna be great.

950
00:43:49,440 --> 00:43:49,880
Speaker 2: Excited.

951
00:43:50,239 --> 00:43:52,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, but we have a whole other podcast to discuss

952
00:43:52,400 --> 00:43:52,920
Speaker 3: that one.

953
00:43:52,880 --> 00:43:54,240
Speaker 2: And just that game alone.

954
00:43:54,320 --> 00:43:57,359
Speaker 3: My god, Yeah, maybe, yeah, exactly, But we do want

955
00:43:57,400 --> 00:43:59,480
Speaker 3: to close out the Premier League part of the program.

956
00:43:59,560 --> 00:44:02,239
Speaker 3: With pal Us plus one hundred hosting Leeds plus two

957
00:44:02,280 --> 00:44:04,239
Speaker 3: seventy five, the draw here is plus to sixty five

958
00:44:04,719 --> 00:44:07,560
Speaker 3: Monday Night Football returns. I feel like Crystal Palace plays

959
00:44:07,560 --> 00:44:09,000
Speaker 3: more Monday games than anybody.

960
00:44:09,440 --> 00:44:11,279
Speaker 2: Uh oh yeah, as they should should be that, it

961
00:44:11,280 --> 00:44:13,520
Speaker 2: should be that way. This is a great matchup.

962
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:14,720
Speaker 1: This is a perfect Monday.

963
00:44:14,960 --> 00:44:18,400
Speaker 2: I'm glad I will I will gladly have a terrible

964
00:44:18,440 --> 00:44:21,040
Speaker 2: Saturday ten am slate if it means we get more

965
00:44:21,080 --> 00:44:23,480
Speaker 2: of these Monday night thrillers between Palace and Leads. We

966
00:44:23,480 --> 00:44:25,759
Speaker 2: had a Palace in an arsenal. I remember Palace played

967
00:44:25,760 --> 00:44:27,319
Speaker 2: a great match with Brighton on a Monday night.

968
00:44:27,560 --> 00:44:30,360
Speaker 3: They beat Everton on Monday. Uh in the afternoon.

969
00:44:30,360 --> 00:44:33,560
Speaker 2: Maybe everybody beat Everton a week Yeah, it wasn't.

970
00:44:33,719 --> 00:44:36,200
Speaker 1: It wasn't Christane ball on a Monday as well when.

971
00:44:36,080 --> 00:44:37,720
Speaker 3: They it was definitely under the lights.

972
00:44:37,920 --> 00:44:40,080
Speaker 2: It was under the lights, I remember, But I mean

973
00:44:40,080 --> 00:44:42,080
Speaker 2: it probably wasn't Monday then, But but I mean Anthony

974
00:44:42,200 --> 00:44:43,040
Speaker 2: Anthony says it.

975
00:44:43,320 --> 00:44:48,440
Speaker 3: We're talking about two very very very very different teams here. Uh,

976
00:44:48,880 --> 00:44:53,200
Speaker 3: Leeds Cocaine Ball a little bit less so under Jesse Marsh,

977
00:44:53,200 --> 00:44:57,000
Speaker 3: but still cocaine ball and then uh, Palace and their

978
00:44:57,239 --> 00:45:04,200
Speaker 3: methodical midfield and lumbering offense. So you got a ammovable

979
00:45:04,239 --> 00:45:07,680
Speaker 3: force and an unstoppable object. Poor Man's a poor man's

980
00:45:07,760 --> 00:45:10,799
Speaker 3: Newton's conundrum or whoever it came up with that one. Uh,

981
00:45:11,440 --> 00:45:15,600
Speaker 3: I don't know what really like that Leeds has been

982
00:45:15,600 --> 00:45:18,080
Speaker 3: good under Marsh, but like, I don't know if they're

983
00:45:18,400 --> 00:45:20,600
Speaker 3: going to be What I should say is this number

984
00:45:20,600 --> 00:45:23,120
Speaker 3: just looks right. I don't I don't see an angle here,

985
00:45:23,640 --> 00:45:25,640
Speaker 3: but I do think as a as a standalone game

986
00:45:25,680 --> 00:45:27,799
Speaker 3: on a Monday, it should be interesting and I could

987
00:45:27,880 --> 00:45:31,640
Speaker 3: see it going much more towards Leeds's tempo considering the

988
00:45:32,040 --> 00:45:34,520
Speaker 3: you know that there they want to secure their spot.

989
00:45:34,920 --> 00:45:37,080
Speaker 3: Palace very little to play for besides, you know, just

990
00:45:37,120 --> 00:45:40,239
Speaker 3: continuing a great season. Uh So yeah, I'm just kind

991
00:45:40,239 --> 00:45:42,560
Speaker 3: of gonna sit back and enjoy it. Leads they have

992
00:45:42,560 --> 00:45:46,160
Speaker 3: the highest total goals on average per per game this

993
00:45:46,200 --> 00:45:50,120
Speaker 3: season and Palace fourth lowest. So really really interesting just

994
00:45:50,120 --> 00:45:52,200
Speaker 3: to see how this game actually plays out, because a

995
00:45:52,200 --> 00:45:53,440
Speaker 3: lot of times when these I feel like when these

996
00:45:53,480 --> 00:45:56,560
Speaker 3: two kind of teams meet up, it's just it's it's

997
00:45:56,600 --> 00:45:58,319
Speaker 3: a mess, and it just doesn't turn into a good

998
00:45:58,360 --> 00:46:01,200
Speaker 3: game for for Neutrals BJ. What do you have?

999
00:46:01,480 --> 00:46:04,480
Speaker 1: I like Palace even money and here I've then projected

1000
00:46:04,560 --> 00:46:07,000
Speaker 1: minus one twenty three. You know, they've lost three straight matches.

1001
00:46:07,040 --> 00:46:08,239
Speaker 1: Got to take that with a little bit of a

1002
00:46:08,239 --> 00:46:10,560
Speaker 1: grain of salt because all of those were away from

1003
00:46:10,640 --> 00:46:14,000
Speaker 1: Selhurst Park where something magical is just happening with them

1004
00:46:14,000 --> 00:46:17,520
Speaker 1: this season plus seven point eight expected gold diffrenchal at

1005
00:46:17,560 --> 00:46:21,000
Speaker 1: home minus six on the road I mean Leeds. I

1006
00:46:21,080 --> 00:46:23,160
Speaker 1: understand they have a new manager, but overall for the

1007
00:46:23,200 --> 00:46:26,000
Speaker 1: season away from allan road, they have a minus twelve

1008
00:46:26,040 --> 00:46:28,440
Speaker 1: point three expected gold differential, which is bottom three in

1009
00:46:28,440 --> 00:46:31,200
Speaker 1: the Premier League. They're allowing around two expected goals per

1010
00:46:31,200 --> 00:46:34,640
Speaker 1: match away from home. They have been better under Jesse Marsh,

1011
00:46:34,800 --> 00:46:38,400
Speaker 1: but they haven't played the most difficult schedule. I mean

1012
00:46:38,440 --> 00:46:42,960
Speaker 1: they've played six masted matches against Lester, Astonville and Norwich, Wolves,

1013
00:46:43,080 --> 00:46:45,359
Speaker 1: Southampton and Watford. They did put up a plus two

1014
00:46:45,400 --> 00:46:48,480
Speaker 1: point two expected gold differential in those matches, but I

1015
00:46:48,480 --> 00:46:51,040
Speaker 1: think we would all agree that Crystal Palace will be

1016
00:46:51,040 --> 00:46:53,480
Speaker 1: the best team that they've played under Jesse Marsh. So far.

1017
00:46:54,239 --> 00:46:56,680
Speaker 1: Palace does struggle playing through pressure, which is a concern

1018
00:46:56,680 --> 00:46:58,239
Speaker 1: in this match, and it's one of the main reasons

1019
00:46:58,280 --> 00:47:00,359
Speaker 1: why they lost the Leeds last time they played them.

1020
00:47:00,560 --> 00:47:04,279
Speaker 1: But Leeds really really struggles when they play teams that

1021
00:47:04,320 --> 00:47:07,040
Speaker 1: press them back in Liverpool, sorry not Liverpool, excuse me.

1022
00:47:07,280 --> 00:47:10,880
Speaker 1: Crystal Palace presses at the third highest rate in the

1023
00:47:10,920 --> 00:47:13,480
Speaker 1: Premier League, so and Leeds is nineteenth and pressure success

1024
00:47:13,520 --> 00:47:16,440
Speaker 1: right allowed. So, like I said, I have Palace projected

1025
00:47:16,440 --> 00:47:18,720
Speaker 1: at minus one twenty three, so I'm showing some value

1026
00:47:18,719 --> 00:47:20,719
Speaker 1: on them, so you give me them even money at home?

1027
00:47:20,840 --> 00:47:23,480
Speaker 3: Anthony, you're thinking that this game is going to play

1028
00:47:23,480 --> 00:47:26,840
Speaker 3: more towards I guess the leads script than the Palace one.

1029
00:47:27,239 --> 00:47:29,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean like Leeds press is more defensive now

1030
00:47:29,880 --> 00:47:31,880
Speaker 2: than it was. I mean, like we should we should

1031
00:47:31,880 --> 00:47:34,160
Speaker 2: say that, and it's pretty clear in the numbers the

1032
00:47:34,239 --> 00:47:37,279
Speaker 2: defense has improved. But I think this is going to

1033
00:47:37,280 --> 00:47:39,239
Speaker 2: be a really fun back and forth match between two

1034
00:47:39,239 --> 00:47:41,680
Speaker 2: teams don't have a ton to play for. I'm going

1035
00:47:41,680 --> 00:47:44,600
Speaker 2: with over two and a half goals Palace at home.

1036
00:47:44,800 --> 00:47:47,080
Speaker 2: Their attack is just miles better and I don't know

1037
00:47:47,120 --> 00:47:49,560
Speaker 2: what's going on either. I mean, like you typically see

1038
00:47:49,600 --> 00:47:51,600
Speaker 2: splits and you can understand why Palace might have a

1039
00:47:51,640 --> 00:47:55,320
Speaker 2: better numbers at home, but this is so drastic. It's

1040
00:47:55,360 --> 00:47:58,160
Speaker 2: even bigger than Brentford's gap at this point now, which

1041
00:47:58,200 --> 00:48:00,480
Speaker 2: is crazy given how much we've talked about Brentford through

1042
00:48:00,520 --> 00:48:02,920
Speaker 2: the two you know, the London squads that don't want

1043
00:48:02,920 --> 00:48:05,759
Speaker 2: to lead the Capital. But I think this game is

1044
00:48:05,760 --> 00:48:07,480
Speaker 2: going to be so much fun. I'm very excited for it.

1045
00:48:08,280 --> 00:48:10,360
Speaker 2: Flex will be in attendance, so I'm also gonna be

1046
00:48:10,440 --> 00:48:14,440
Speaker 2: rooting for goals myself. But yeah, I think both attacks,

1047
00:48:14,760 --> 00:48:20,200
Speaker 2: whether it's leads, getting through and kind of getting healthy. Finally,

1048
00:48:20,280 --> 00:48:22,439
Speaker 2: you know, they haven't played in fifteen days. We've talked

1049
00:48:22,800 --> 00:48:26,040
Speaker 2: a ton about all their injuries. They're finally getting healthy,

1050
00:48:26,040 --> 00:48:29,160
Speaker 2: which I think will help them considerably going forward. Also

1051
00:48:30,320 --> 00:48:32,800
Speaker 2: Palace when they do break through that leads defensive press.

1052
00:48:32,840 --> 00:48:35,759
Speaker 2: It's it's similar to more similar to Southampton nowadays than

1053
00:48:35,800 --> 00:48:38,600
Speaker 2: I think anything else with their press. But they're going

1054
00:48:38,640 --> 00:48:41,239
Speaker 2: to allow big scoring chances and it really this match

1055
00:48:41,280 --> 00:48:43,319
Speaker 2: probably comes down to whether or not Palace takes those chances.

1056
00:48:43,360 --> 00:48:46,200
Speaker 2: They've had some problems with chance conversion, big chance conversion.

1057
00:48:46,480 --> 00:48:48,680
Speaker 2: It's the main region they've been an underperformer. A team

1058
00:48:48,680 --> 00:48:51,400
Speaker 2: we've been betting on. Hopefully some of that, you know,

1059
00:48:51,480 --> 00:48:53,040
Speaker 2: goes our way and we get an over here and

1060
00:48:53,600 --> 00:48:55,600
Speaker 2: you know, two to one palace kind of game. But

1061
00:48:55,680 --> 00:48:57,359
Speaker 2: it wouldn't be shocked if leads one either. I think

1062
00:48:57,560 --> 00:48:59,120
Speaker 2: there's a high variance kind of game.

1063
00:48:59,280 --> 00:49:02,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would agree. All right, let's move to the Bundesliga.

1064
00:49:02,920 --> 00:49:06,840
Speaker 3: We'll start with Der Classicer. We had a German listener

1065
00:49:06,880 --> 00:49:08,640
Speaker 3: reached out a couple months ago. I had no idea

1066
00:49:08,640 --> 00:49:11,680
Speaker 3: about this that very few people in Germany referred to

1067
00:49:11,680 --> 00:49:14,680
Speaker 3: this match as Der Classicer. But we will hear. We're

1068
00:49:14,719 --> 00:49:17,360
Speaker 3: American and we don't we don't follow those same rules.

1069
00:49:17,400 --> 00:49:21,080
Speaker 3: But Byron, they're hosting Dortmund. Byron minus two fifty Dortmund

1070
00:49:21,239 --> 00:49:23,080
Speaker 3: five and a half to one. The draws plus four

1071
00:49:23,200 --> 00:49:26,600
Speaker 3: seventy five, a nine point difference between these two sides

1072
00:49:27,160 --> 00:49:30,280
Speaker 3: in the Bundesliga table as we get down the stretch,

1073
00:49:30,640 --> 00:49:33,080
Speaker 3: so you know, must win game if if Dortmund wants

1074
00:49:33,080 --> 00:49:37,320
Speaker 3: to keep their slim slim slim hopes alive and Dortmund

1075
00:49:37,360 --> 00:49:41,520
Speaker 3: they have been vulnerable the past since since twenty twenty

1076
00:49:41,560 --> 00:49:44,480
Speaker 3: two started, you could say, and I don't think a

1077
00:49:44,520 --> 00:49:49,200
Speaker 3: little sprinkle here on Dortmund is a terrible idea, even

1078
00:49:49,239 --> 00:49:52,000
Speaker 3: with some lineup issues, and I could see this one also,

1079
00:49:52,239 --> 00:49:54,560
Speaker 3: you know, playing out when you see these two teams,

1080
00:49:54,600 --> 00:49:57,680
Speaker 3: you just automatically think goals, goals, goals, and I think

1081
00:49:57,719 --> 00:49:59,480
Speaker 3: that there might be a way to fade that, and

1082
00:49:59,520 --> 00:50:00,880
Speaker 3: Anthony expand on that.

1083
00:50:01,320 --> 00:50:04,279
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't want to I like hate this.

1084
00:50:04,560 --> 00:50:06,400
Speaker 2: It's probably my least favorite hold your nose play of

1085
00:50:06,440 --> 00:50:08,520
Speaker 2: the year. But I'm playing under four minus one fifteen.

1086
00:50:08,520 --> 00:50:12,080
Speaker 2: I only project three points sixty nine goals in this match.

1087
00:50:13,400 --> 00:50:16,200
Speaker 2: I have Byron about a one point four goals better,

1088
00:50:16,440 --> 00:50:18,680
Speaker 2: so I don't show any value on the number I

1089
00:50:18,719 --> 00:50:21,319
Speaker 2: typically bet Byron in this match, at least the last

1090
00:50:21,360 --> 00:50:22,600
Speaker 2: couple of years when they've been on the road, I

1091
00:50:22,640 --> 00:50:25,160
Speaker 2: bet them because you just get the cheap number on

1092
00:50:25,200 --> 00:50:28,359
Speaker 2: Byron because you know they're on the road. But it's

1093
00:50:28,440 --> 00:50:30,400
Speaker 2: like they just dominate this league and they always find

1094
00:50:30,440 --> 00:50:31,800
Speaker 2: a way to win this match, even if they're not

1095
00:50:31,800 --> 00:50:33,920
Speaker 2: necessarily that much better than Dortmund, which is really what

1096
00:50:34,040 --> 00:50:35,800
Speaker 2: happened in the first match Dortmund. I mean, it was

1097
00:50:35,880 --> 00:50:37,960
Speaker 2: very even. I got a little fortunate to cash Byron.

1098
00:50:38,200 --> 00:50:40,799
Speaker 2: It was a very controversial penalty decision. It was an

1099
00:50:40,800 --> 00:50:42,759
Speaker 2: own goal in that match that got it to three too,

1100
00:50:42,800 --> 00:50:45,120
Speaker 2: but really the expected goals weren't quite on that number,

1101
00:50:46,000 --> 00:50:49,000
Speaker 2: quite a bit lower in fact, and so I this

1102
00:50:49,080 --> 00:50:52,680
Speaker 2: really just comes down to Dortmund because they're defensive miscues

1103
00:50:52,719 --> 00:50:55,040
Speaker 2: trying to play through the Byron press. Just give Byron

1104
00:50:55,080 --> 00:50:57,400
Speaker 2: goals every time they play them, and if they just

1105
00:50:57,480 --> 00:50:59,719
Speaker 2: do less of that, I think this game stays under.

1106
00:50:59,760 --> 00:51:01,960
Speaker 2: So of course you're betting on this defense to stop

1107
00:51:01,960 --> 00:51:04,960
Speaker 2: making dumb mistakes, which it's done all year and continues

1108
00:51:05,000 --> 00:51:07,759
Speaker 2: to do, and probably will regret playing this under But

1109
00:51:08,200 --> 00:51:10,880
Speaker 2: if they score five goals and I lose, I'll be damned.

1110
00:51:10,920 --> 00:51:13,600
Speaker 2: I got an entertaining match out of it. But yeah,

1111
00:51:13,760 --> 00:51:16,040
Speaker 2: I'm playing the under four and it's an ultimate holder

1112
00:51:16,120 --> 00:51:19,120
Speaker 2: nos play. Also, you know, from a situational point of

1113
00:51:19,160 --> 00:51:21,319
Speaker 2: view that the trophies on the line here Byron wins,

1114
00:51:21,360 --> 00:51:24,000
Speaker 2: they win the league, they clint the league title. They

1115
00:51:24,000 --> 00:51:25,960
Speaker 2: have a nine point gap with four to play, so

1116
00:51:26,000 --> 00:51:27,600
Speaker 2: they win this, it would go to twelve with three

1117
00:51:27,600 --> 00:51:30,680
Speaker 2: to play. That means it's over. Even if they lost,

1118
00:51:30,760 --> 00:51:32,920
Speaker 2: it's over. Even if they drew, it's over, but it

1119
00:51:32,960 --> 00:51:36,120
Speaker 2: would be officially over if Byron were to win this match.

1120
00:51:36,160 --> 00:51:39,319
Speaker 2: So definitely a Dortmund will not want to be the

1121
00:51:39,360 --> 00:51:43,600
Speaker 2: team to let them have the trophies, So Byron will

1122
00:51:43,600 --> 00:51:45,680
Speaker 2: probably win this. Hopefully it's like a two to one

1123
00:51:45,760 --> 00:51:47,160
Speaker 2: kind of game and not three to two.

1124
00:51:47,239 --> 00:51:50,880
Speaker 3: Again, beat you anything here on this one before to

1125
00:51:50,920 --> 00:51:51,239
Speaker 3: the resk.

1126
00:51:51,520 --> 00:51:53,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, I lean Byron minus four and a half at

1127
00:51:53,480 --> 00:51:57,320
Speaker 1: even money, showing about two percent of value on it,

1128
00:51:57,480 --> 00:51:59,040
Speaker 1: just kind of staying away just because I don't have

1129
00:51:59,080 --> 00:52:02,080
Speaker 1: that much. I mean, Bern has won seven straight against Dorman.

1130
00:52:02,160 --> 00:52:07,359
Speaker 1: They typically just thrash them. Dorman's been a big overperformer offensively,

1131
00:52:07,400 --> 00:52:10,239
Speaker 1: I mean seventy two goals off of fifty four expected.

1132
00:52:10,719 --> 00:52:13,319
Speaker 1: I mean that's insane. I mean Byron is obviously over

1133
00:52:13,360 --> 00:52:16,960
Speaker 1: performing as well. But yeah, I like Anthey said, Byron

1134
00:52:16,960 --> 00:52:19,440
Speaker 1: will be up for this match. It will probably end

1135
00:52:19,520 --> 00:52:23,280
Speaker 1: u a Byron route because for whatever reason, the Dorman

1136
00:52:23,360 --> 00:52:27,160
Speaker 1: miscubs just become so much more evident against Lewandowskian company.

1137
00:52:27,280 --> 00:52:30,480
Speaker 1: So leaning towards Byron minus one and a half a

1138
00:52:30,560 --> 00:52:35,080
Speaker 1: nice another square play for me, But ultimately I'll be

1139
00:52:35,080 --> 00:52:39,160
Speaker 1: passing because Byron has just really something weird has been

1140
00:52:39,160 --> 00:52:40,879
Speaker 1: happening with him the last few weeks, with all their

1141
00:52:41,640 --> 00:52:44,160
Speaker 1: performances even this past weekend against Bfild. I mean, it

1142
00:52:44,200 --> 00:52:47,520
Speaker 1: wasn't like the the Byron ultimate thrashing. They got an

1143
00:52:47,520 --> 00:52:49,640
Speaker 1: own goal and it was two point two expected goals

1144
00:52:49,600 --> 00:52:52,840
Speaker 1: too point seven not really what you know, it's good

1145
00:52:53,160 --> 00:52:55,759
Speaker 1: but it's not. It's not great. So I don't know

1146
00:52:55,800 --> 00:52:57,799
Speaker 1: what's going off Byron, but I'm probably gonna end up

1147
00:52:57,800 --> 00:52:59,200
Speaker 1: just passing on this match.

1148
00:52:59,280 --> 00:53:01,600
Speaker 3: All right, I would say the Bundesliga and talk about

1149
00:53:01,600 --> 00:53:04,200
Speaker 3: our favorite bets, Anthony, what do you have for us?

1150
00:53:04,400 --> 00:53:06,439
Speaker 2: Well? By the way, Byron goes to Mines next week,

1151
00:53:06,480 --> 00:53:11,480
Speaker 2: so oh boy boy if they win the league hope. Yeah,

1152
00:53:11,480 --> 00:53:14,120
Speaker 2: we're all boy Mines Mines and at Wolfsburg on the

1153
00:53:14,120 --> 00:53:16,080
Speaker 2: final day, so we will be fading Byron the last

1154
00:53:16,120 --> 00:53:18,600
Speaker 2: few weeks of the season. That being said, my favorite

1155
00:53:18,600 --> 00:53:20,840
Speaker 2: bet in the Bundesliga, besides the under four, which is

1156
00:53:20,880 --> 00:53:23,800
Speaker 2: my least favorite favorite bet ever, is Groud there first

1157
00:53:23,880 --> 00:53:27,000
Speaker 2: plus one and a half. You know, I haven't really

1158
00:53:27,000 --> 00:53:28,879
Speaker 2: talked about that much on the pod lately. I feel

1159
00:53:28,880 --> 00:53:30,279
Speaker 2: like we haven't talked about them enough on the pod,

1160
00:53:30,280 --> 00:53:31,520
Speaker 2: but if you follow me in the app, you know

1161
00:53:31,560 --> 00:53:33,879
Speaker 2: I've still been betting those suckers and they have been

1162
00:53:33,880 --> 00:53:36,640
Speaker 2: cashing tickets lately. I mean they have played like the

1163
00:53:36,719 --> 00:53:40,080
Speaker 2: thirteenth or fourteenth best team in the Bundesliga since December

1164
00:53:40,280 --> 00:53:42,440
Speaker 2: when you look at expected goals. Now, of course the

1165
00:53:42,440 --> 00:53:44,760
Speaker 2: first half was so bad and they underperformed. They're actually

1166
00:53:44,760 --> 00:53:46,680
Speaker 2: so much that they have no chance of staying up.

1167
00:53:47,280 --> 00:53:49,520
Speaker 2: It will be back to the Bundesliga too for Groyth there,

1168
00:53:49,560 --> 00:53:51,320
Speaker 2: but I hope they make it back one day because

1169
00:53:51,440 --> 00:53:53,960
Speaker 2: I had fun with this team and they have had

1170
00:53:54,239 --> 00:53:57,200
Speaker 2: a legitimately good run. Right since the seven to one

1171
00:53:57,280 --> 00:54:02,240
Speaker 2: lost to Leverkusen, they've gotten two wins. Okay, that's not great,

1172
00:54:02,680 --> 00:54:06,760
Speaker 2: but they've managed seven draws and they've only had six losses.

1173
00:54:06,800 --> 00:54:08,959
Speaker 2: So that means that in their last fifteen games since

1174
00:54:08,960 --> 00:54:11,359
Speaker 2: that seven to one beating down against Leverkusen when all

1175
00:54:11,400 --> 00:54:12,759
Speaker 2: of us had youre right there, I think they were

1176
00:54:12,800 --> 00:54:15,239
Speaker 2: plus two or plus two and a half and we

1177
00:54:15,239 --> 00:54:18,319
Speaker 2: don't talk about that game anymore. Since then, they've been

1178
00:54:18,400 --> 00:54:23,480
Speaker 2: on mid table Bundesliga side and Leverkusen, I know, BJ

1179
00:54:23,600 --> 00:54:26,320
Speaker 2: got cute, tried to back them last weekend. It didn't

1180
00:54:26,360 --> 00:54:29,799
Speaker 2: quite go to plan, but Leverkusen continues to be a

1181
00:54:29,840 --> 00:54:31,839
Speaker 2: little overrated in my numbers, Like I've got them power

1182
00:54:31,920 --> 00:54:33,719
Speaker 2: rated as the fifth best team. They're in fourth, So

1183
00:54:33,760 --> 00:54:36,120
Speaker 2: you could say, like, okay, you know they don't have

1184
00:54:36,160 --> 00:54:37,800
Speaker 2: that much regression coming, but you just look at the

1185
00:54:37,840 --> 00:54:40,640
Speaker 2: attack and it's like, is Kroyds are going to give

1186
00:54:40,680 --> 00:54:44,719
Speaker 2: them the transition opportunities they desperately need to create to

1187
00:54:44,760 --> 00:54:47,719
Speaker 2: win this match? They might, but like, I'm okay taking

1188
00:54:47,719 --> 00:54:49,880
Speaker 2: the plus one and a half, especially with and this

1189
00:54:49,920 --> 00:54:52,560
Speaker 2: is the sneaky part. Levercus's defense has had a major

1190
00:54:53,200 --> 00:54:55,719
Speaker 2: major issue lately, like they have been conceding a ton

1191
00:54:55,760 --> 00:54:57,880
Speaker 2: of big scoring chances one and a half to Wolfsburg

1192
00:54:58,160 --> 00:55:01,279
Speaker 2: over one to Bochum. They were actually probably their best

1193
00:55:01,280 --> 00:55:04,160
Speaker 2: showing in a while against Leipzig last week, but yeah,

1194
00:55:04,320 --> 00:55:06,239
Speaker 2: now they're on the road where they've been much worse.

1195
00:55:06,280 --> 00:55:08,920
Speaker 2: Their defense is actually just eighth best and xg allowed

1196
00:55:09,239 --> 00:55:11,680
Speaker 2: on the road this season. So I'm gonna take Royth

1197
00:55:11,680 --> 00:55:13,960
Speaker 2: there plus one and a half, and I think the

1198
00:55:14,000 --> 00:55:16,759
Speaker 2: boys are gonna give me one last cash. Looking at

1199
00:55:16,760 --> 00:55:20,640
Speaker 2: the schedule, well I be betting Groyth the again this season.

1200
00:55:21,520 --> 00:55:23,279
Speaker 2: They got dormant at home, so probably one more one

1201
00:55:23,280 --> 00:55:25,960
Speaker 2: more Groatther run after this but uh yeah, we're gonna

1202
00:55:26,040 --> 00:55:29,120
Speaker 2: ride the boys. It's been a fun run for I

1203
00:55:29,120 --> 00:55:31,759
Speaker 2: think I think we all need to do one last group.

1204
00:55:31,800 --> 00:55:33,920
Speaker 3: I'll they played Dortmund. I'll be in for this in

1205
00:55:33,920 --> 00:55:37,760
Speaker 3: a couple of weeks. For me, I like Unjan Berlin.

1206
00:55:37,920 --> 00:55:42,359
Speaker 3: They're six to one against the luckiest team in your

1207
00:55:42,800 --> 00:55:46,440
Speaker 3: red ros and Ballsport Leipzig RBI Leipzig. This is a

1208
00:55:46,480 --> 00:55:50,600
Speaker 3: Saturday nine thirty am kickoff in the Bundesliga. These two

1209
00:55:50,640 --> 00:55:54,840
Speaker 3: teams just played today in the DFB pocal and Unyan

1210
00:55:54,960 --> 00:55:58,200
Speaker 3: goes up one nothing a penalty and a ninety second

1211
00:55:58,280 --> 00:56:03,360
Speaker 3: minute winner for for to continue their unbelievable run of fortune.

1212
00:56:04,000 --> 00:56:05,680
Speaker 3: I just I like the match up, yer, I don't

1213
00:56:05,719 --> 00:56:08,359
Speaker 3: think there's I mean, yeah, Leipzig is a better team,

1214
00:56:08,400 --> 00:56:11,000
Speaker 3: that's reflected in the number, but Unyan is a top

1215
00:56:11,040 --> 00:56:15,120
Speaker 3: seven defensive team and penalty expected goals shots for ninety

1216
00:56:15,120 --> 00:56:18,840
Speaker 3: big chances, allow box entries, and their offense is decent

1217
00:56:19,000 --> 00:56:22,480
Speaker 3: at creating big chances fifth and Leipzig are only eighth

1218
00:56:22,520 --> 00:56:24,920
Speaker 3: at preventing them. And at some point we just know

1219
00:56:25,000 --> 00:56:27,960
Speaker 3: that this Leipzig run is going to is going to

1220
00:56:27,960 --> 00:56:29,839
Speaker 3: come down. We don't have to go over we say

1221
00:56:29,840 --> 00:56:33,480
Speaker 3: it every week. They're outperforming their x G by fourteen

1222
00:56:33,520 --> 00:56:35,880
Speaker 3: goals on offense right now and two goals on defense

1223
00:56:35,920 --> 00:56:40,960
Speaker 3: of sixteen goals. So back on Unjan Berlin for me BJ,

1224
00:56:41,640 --> 00:56:42,960
Speaker 3: What about you in the Budesliga?

1225
00:56:42,960 --> 00:56:47,200
Speaker 1: Well also Villain, but I actually like over three goals

1226
00:56:47,280 --> 00:56:53,080
Speaker 1: at even money in Freiberg and Glodboch. I mean, the

1227
00:56:53,120 --> 00:56:56,200
Speaker 1: glod Blog defense just continues to lead goals and it's

1228
00:56:56,239 --> 00:57:00,560
Speaker 1: showing no sign of improvement. They've allowed to run thirteen

1229
00:57:00,640 --> 00:57:03,440
Speaker 1: point nine expected goals in the last eight matches and

1230
00:57:03,480 --> 00:57:06,160
Speaker 1: they're now at one point six to three XG allowed

1231
00:57:06,200 --> 00:57:09,400
Speaker 1: per match this season, which is fourteenth in the Bundesliga.

1232
00:57:09,560 --> 00:57:13,480
Speaker 1: Freiberg plays a very different style than most in the Bundesliga.

1233
00:57:13,520 --> 00:57:14,640
Speaker 1: I mean I played out a three four to three.

1234
00:57:14,680 --> 00:57:17,880
Speaker 1: They're a little more defensive. They're actually very very average

1235
00:57:17,920 --> 00:57:20,400
Speaker 1: from open play. But they are by far and away

1236
00:57:20,880 --> 00:57:24,360
Speaker 1: the best set piece offense in the Bundesliga seventeen goals

1237
00:57:24,360 --> 00:57:27,800
Speaker 1: and sixteen point seven x G off of them this season. Glodboch,

1238
00:57:28,080 --> 00:57:31,200
Speaker 1: not surprisingly, is the worst set piece defense in Germany

1239
00:57:31,200 --> 00:57:33,800
Speaker 1: thirteen point seven XG alloud off in this season. So

1240
00:57:33,880 --> 00:57:36,920
Speaker 1: don't be surprised if Freiberg scores off a corner or

1241
00:57:36,960 --> 00:57:40,320
Speaker 1: a free kick. Offense has still been really good for Gladbach.

1242
00:57:40,360 --> 00:57:42,520
Speaker 1: Their top six and non penalty expected goals and all

1243
00:57:42,520 --> 00:57:44,880
Speaker 1: the other offensive metrics they've been on pretty good as

1244
00:57:44,880 --> 00:57:47,000
Speaker 1: of late two twelve point seven expected goals in the

1245
00:57:47,040 --> 00:57:50,640
Speaker 1: last seven matches. Freiberg is a top six defense, but

1246
00:57:50,680 --> 00:57:53,600
Speaker 1: they allow a ton of shots. They're fifteenth in shots

1247
00:57:53,600 --> 00:57:56,560
Speaker 1: allowed per ninety minutes. So I do believe Glodboch will

1248
00:57:56,560 --> 00:57:58,960
Speaker 1: have their chances. And this is a huge revenge spot

1249
00:57:59,080 --> 00:58:02,440
Speaker 1: for Glodbok because Freiberg hung six goals on them the

1250
00:58:02,520 --> 00:58:04,960
Speaker 1: last time these guys played at Brusia Park. So I

1251
00:58:04,960 --> 00:58:06,840
Speaker 1: think glodback even though in the middle of the table

1252
00:58:06,920 --> 00:58:09,640
Speaker 1: they're out of any picture in front of europe European spot,

1253
00:58:10,160 --> 00:58:11,480
Speaker 1: I think they'll be up for this one. I have

1254
00:58:11,520 --> 00:58:14,080
Speaker 1: three point five goals projected, so I like over three

1255
00:58:14,120 --> 00:58:14,960
Speaker 1: goals even money.

1256
00:58:15,200 --> 00:58:17,880
Speaker 2: If I ever bet Gloudback's again this season, unfollow me

1257
00:58:17,920 --> 00:58:20,080
Speaker 2: in the app. Don't ever listen to this podcast again.

1258
00:58:20,800 --> 00:58:24,920
Speaker 2: I I am. I am appalled at the effort that

1259
00:58:25,000 --> 00:58:28,040
Speaker 2: they put out on Saturday in their rival match after

1260
00:58:28,040 --> 00:58:30,200
Speaker 2: they lost four one at Con earlier this year they

1261
00:58:30,200 --> 00:58:33,080
Speaker 2: had a rivalry home match on your home soil. You

1262
00:58:33,120 --> 00:58:35,880
Speaker 2: get embarrassed by Colan and it wasn't even just that, like, okay,

1263
00:58:35,880 --> 00:58:37,960
Speaker 2: Coln played really well. There was a play where I

1264
00:58:37,960 --> 00:58:40,640
Speaker 2: thought the guy for glodblock got found, but three glodback

1265
00:58:40,640 --> 00:58:43,720
Speaker 2: defenders did not defend. They just stopped playing and let

1266
00:58:43,760 --> 00:58:45,919
Speaker 2: Con run right into the goal and shoot it in

1267
00:58:46,240 --> 00:58:49,800
Speaker 2: for the third goal in the first half. Addie Hooter,

1268
00:58:50,200 --> 00:58:52,320
Speaker 2: you need to leave the job. I'm sorry this has

1269
00:58:52,320 --> 00:58:55,240
Speaker 2: been at this why he got fired yet I don't understand.

1270
00:58:55,280 --> 00:58:58,040
Speaker 2: I mean, they are short on money because of the pandemic,

1271
00:58:58,080 --> 00:59:00,680
Speaker 2: and you know they were hoping to do a big

1272
00:59:00,720 --> 00:59:04,720
Speaker 2: payout for Elvedy and Ginter over their sales, and Gladbach

1273
00:59:05,920 --> 00:59:08,040
Speaker 2: have basically not had center backs this season. I mean

1274
00:59:08,040 --> 00:59:10,160
Speaker 2: they went from this team was in the Champions League

1275
00:59:10,200 --> 00:59:13,280
Speaker 2: round of sixteen last season and now they're in the

1276
00:59:13,320 --> 00:59:15,800
Speaker 2: bottom half of the Bundesliga. And the defensive numbers aren't

1277
00:59:15,800 --> 00:59:18,200
Speaker 2: embarrassment and I keep saying, oh, the talent's too good,

1278
00:59:18,360 --> 00:59:21,120
Speaker 2: they're going to improve. Nope. Elvady subbed off in the

1279
00:59:21,120 --> 00:59:25,040
Speaker 2: first half last weekend. Glad Bach. I'm very disappointed. In

1280
00:59:25,040 --> 00:59:27,880
Speaker 2: my foals. I even had like my family over was

1281
00:59:27,920 --> 00:59:30,000
Speaker 2: watching the match. I put my jersey on at twelve

1282
00:59:30,000 --> 00:59:32,560
Speaker 2: twenty eight, took it off twelve thirty seven. I was

1283
00:59:32,640 --> 00:59:34,200
Speaker 2: just like, this is a joke. We're down into five

1284
00:59:34,240 --> 00:59:37,600
Speaker 2: minutes and they didn't look like they cared. Defensively, they

1285
00:59:37,760 --> 00:59:40,280
Speaker 2: do not look like they care. And I'm not betting

1286
00:59:40,320 --> 00:59:42,880
Speaker 2: them the rest of the season at all. I don't

1287
00:59:42,880 --> 00:59:44,200
Speaker 2: even know who they're playing. I don't care.

1288
00:59:44,600 --> 00:59:46,160
Speaker 3: The good news for you here is that they don't

1289
00:59:46,160 --> 00:59:49,240
Speaker 3: play in Syria. Ah, and that's where we're going next.

1290
00:59:49,280 --> 00:59:49,560
Speaker 1: BJ.

1291
00:59:49,880 --> 00:59:51,120
Speaker 3: What's your favorite bet in Italy?

1292
00:59:51,400 --> 00:59:53,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, going back to Toronto, probably one of my favorite

1293
00:59:53,640 --> 00:59:57,080
Speaker 1: teams in Europe this season. This is despice is a

1294
00:59:57,160 --> 01:00:00,439
Speaker 1: little too cheap for them. I understand motivation. We're gonna

1295
01:00:00,440 --> 01:00:03,080
Speaker 1: start candycapping that because Torino is the middle of the table,

1296
01:00:03,120 --> 01:00:06,600
Speaker 1: no real shot at a European spot, but plus nine

1297
01:00:06,640 --> 01:00:09,040
Speaker 1: point one expected goal differential on the season. They're gonna

1298
01:00:09,040 --> 01:00:12,760
Speaker 1: play Spezia, who is now pretty much safe from relegation.

1299
01:00:12,840 --> 01:00:16,479
Speaker 1: They're eleven points so from the relegation zone with five

1300
01:00:16,520 --> 01:00:19,400
Speaker 1: to play, so they're they're pretty much safe. But they

1301
01:00:19,400 --> 01:00:21,680
Speaker 1: have the third worst expected goald deferential in Italy. They're

1302
01:00:21,680 --> 01:00:24,640
Speaker 1: at minus twenty five point nine on the year, and

1303
01:00:24,680 --> 01:00:27,080
Speaker 1: this is just such a good matchup for Torino on

1304
01:00:27,120 --> 01:00:28,959
Speaker 1: so many levels. I mean, they're the best pressing team

1305
01:00:29,000 --> 01:00:32,120
Speaker 1: in Italy by pretty much every metric that you look at.

1306
01:00:32,120 --> 01:00:35,600
Speaker 1: Spezia is one of the worst teams at playing through pressure.

1307
01:00:35,640 --> 01:00:37,840
Speaker 1: It was very evident the last time these two teams played,

1308
01:00:38,120 --> 01:00:41,560
Speaker 1: Torino had a thirty eight percent pressure success rate pass

1309
01:00:41,640 --> 01:00:44,720
Speaker 1: per defensive action of seven. Spezia also one of the

1310
01:00:44,760 --> 01:00:46,960
Speaker 1: worst defenses in Syria. I mean for the season, they're

1311
01:00:46,960 --> 01:00:49,520
Speaker 1: allowing one point seventy five expected goals per match. They've

1312
01:00:49,840 --> 01:00:52,640
Speaker 1: really bad as of late, sixteen point one expected goals

1313
01:00:52,640 --> 01:00:55,360
Speaker 1: in their last nine match them. The big problem is

1314
01:00:55,360 --> 01:00:57,880
Speaker 1: is they just allow way too many shots I mean

1315
01:00:58,360 --> 01:01:01,080
Speaker 1: seventeen per ninety to be exacted, which is the worst

1316
01:01:01,080 --> 01:01:04,880
Speaker 1: mark in Syria. So even though Treno is pretty average offensively,

1317
01:01:04,960 --> 01:01:07,000
Speaker 1: I mean, they're eleven to next g I have no

1318
01:01:07,040 --> 01:01:08,360
Speaker 1: doubt that they're gonna be able to create a bunch

1319
01:01:08,400 --> 01:01:10,880
Speaker 1: of chances against one of the worst defenses Italy that

1320
01:01:11,560 --> 01:01:13,200
Speaker 1: I think is going to lack a lot of motivation

1321
01:01:14,000 --> 01:01:17,200
Speaker 1: considering that they're you know, they've got the breathing room

1322
01:01:17,200 --> 01:01:20,160
Speaker 1: from relegation. I mean I have Terreno projected at minus

1323
01:01:20,160 --> 01:01:22,520
Speaker 1: two oh five, so minus one forty five. I'm seeing

1324
01:01:22,560 --> 01:01:23,840
Speaker 1: a lot of value on them at home.

1325
01:01:23,840 --> 01:01:26,800
Speaker 3: All right, Anthony, your favorite Bettan Inday.

1326
01:01:26,680 --> 01:01:29,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, brutal Italy card. Honestly, all my fade teams are

1327
01:01:29,000 --> 01:01:31,400
Speaker 2: playing each other. We got u veging to Swolo. Don't

1328
01:01:31,440 --> 01:01:33,919
Speaker 2: like the either team. We got Lazzio hosting Milan. Don't

1329
01:01:33,960 --> 01:01:36,520
Speaker 2: like either team. All these overrated teams I'm looking to

1330
01:01:36,520 --> 01:01:38,400
Speaker 2: bet against for playing each other. You cannot bet against

1331
01:01:38,400 --> 01:01:41,360
Speaker 2: both teams in the same game, actually, unfortunately, so I

1332
01:01:41,400 --> 01:01:43,240
Speaker 2: will be going back to the tried and two Syria

1333
01:01:43,440 --> 01:01:46,080
Speaker 2: unders that have no chance in hell under two and

1334
01:01:46,120 --> 01:01:48,760
Speaker 2: a half plus one oh five Verona and sam Dooria.

1335
01:01:49,120 --> 01:01:50,800
Speaker 2: I played the under. Last time these two teams played,

1336
01:01:50,840 --> 01:01:52,760
Speaker 2: there was only one point five expected goals, but there

1337
01:01:52,800 --> 01:01:54,920
Speaker 2: were somehow four goals. It's really been the story of

1338
01:01:54,960 --> 01:01:58,360
Speaker 2: the Verona season, just magicking up some goals. And maybe

1339
01:01:58,360 --> 01:02:00,160
Speaker 2: I'm cursed on this team because I don't like me

1340
01:02:00,200 --> 01:02:02,920
Speaker 2: only apparently and his son plays for them, But h

1341
01:02:03,200 --> 01:02:05,600
Speaker 2: Verona for the season. Now, I'm just gonna read off

1342
01:02:05,600 --> 01:02:08,200
Speaker 2: the numbers because they're they're kind of funny to read out.

1343
01:02:08,600 --> 01:02:11,200
Speaker 2: They have scored fifty eight goals from forty five expected

1344
01:02:11,440 --> 01:02:13,960
Speaker 2: and they have allowed fifty from forty one expected. So

1345
01:02:14,240 --> 01:02:16,160
Speaker 2: the goalkeeping has been bad. It's been the main reason

1346
01:02:16,160 --> 01:02:19,320
Speaker 2: they've been under those numbers. But again unders in that match.

1347
01:02:19,360 --> 01:02:21,200
Speaker 2: And then you look at Sampdoria. I mean they're even

1348
01:02:21,200 --> 01:02:24,280
Speaker 2: worse defensively forty eight expected allowed, fifty six allowed, and

1349
01:02:24,320 --> 01:02:26,760
Speaker 2: then they've scored forty from thirty one expected. They're a

1350
01:02:26,760 --> 01:02:28,840
Speaker 2: bottom five attack in Syria. They just don't create a

1351
01:02:28,840 --> 01:02:31,560
Speaker 2: lot of big chances and I don't trust them to

1352
01:02:31,560 --> 01:02:33,360
Speaker 2: do so in Verona and what could be a dead game.

1353
01:02:33,440 --> 01:02:34,959
Speaker 2: So I'm going to go under two and a half,

1354
01:02:35,000 --> 01:02:36,000
Speaker 2: like the plus money.

1355
01:02:35,840 --> 01:02:38,680
Speaker 3: Chance no La Liga. That means we go to league

1356
01:02:38,720 --> 01:02:41,920
Speaker 3: oh and BJ before we get to our underdog parlay,

1357
01:02:41,960 --> 01:02:44,480
Speaker 3: which is a doozy this week, talk to us about

1358
01:02:44,600 --> 01:02:45,600
Speaker 3: your favorite bet in France.

1359
01:02:45,720 --> 01:02:48,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's go Ren minus more and a half at

1360
01:02:48,120 --> 01:02:50,520
Speaker 1: plus one thirty at home against Lorient. They're in a

1361
01:02:50,680 --> 01:02:53,840
Speaker 1: heated battle to hold on to that third and final

1362
01:02:53,920 --> 01:02:56,960
Speaker 1: Champions League spot. They had a really bad performance on Wednesday,

1363
01:02:57,000 --> 01:03:00,600
Speaker 1: against Strasbourg only point two to five expected goals created.

1364
01:03:00,600 --> 01:03:02,760
Speaker 1: But this is a really good get right spot for them.

1365
01:03:03,600 --> 01:03:05,520
Speaker 1: They're one of the best offenses in France. I mean

1366
01:03:05,520 --> 01:03:09,360
Speaker 1: they're averaging one point seven x G per match. They've

1367
01:03:09,560 --> 01:03:13,080
Speaker 1: created the most big scoring chances of anybody in league

1368
01:03:13,120 --> 01:03:16,000
Speaker 1: on fifty one in thirty three matches. They usually play

1369
01:03:16,040 --> 01:03:17,400
Speaker 1: out of a four to three to three system, which

1370
01:03:17,440 --> 01:03:21,280
Speaker 1: is very dependent on their wingers Martin Terrier and Benjamin

1371
01:03:21,320 --> 01:03:24,919
Speaker 1: Boyer torching opponents down the flanks and it shows because

1372
01:03:24,920 --> 01:03:27,480
Speaker 1: they're the number one team and completed crosses into the

1373
01:03:27,520 --> 01:03:30,360
Speaker 1: penalty area. That's a major concern for Lorient, who is

1374
01:03:30,640 --> 01:03:34,320
Speaker 1: dead last at crosses allowed into the penalty area. WN.

1375
01:03:34,480 --> 01:03:36,920
Speaker 1: Just really what they've been done a good job of

1376
01:03:36,960 --> 01:03:39,160
Speaker 1: the season is just dominating lower half of the table

1377
01:03:39,240 --> 01:03:43,000
Speaker 1: plus eighteen point nine expecting goal deffrenial against the bottom

1378
01:03:43,040 --> 01:03:46,320
Speaker 1: ten teams in the league. On Lorient a decent offense,

1379
01:03:46,400 --> 01:03:50,480
Speaker 1: tenth in expected goals per match, they really struggle when

1380
01:03:50,480 --> 01:03:52,480
Speaker 1: they have to face teams that press at a high rate.

1381
01:03:52,520 --> 01:03:56,000
Speaker 1: They're seventeenth in offensive pass per defensive action ren fourth

1382
01:03:56,000 --> 01:03:58,200
Speaker 1: and passes per defensive action. They have the third most

1383
01:03:58,280 --> 01:04:00,840
Speaker 1: high turnovers, and they have the most goals in league

1384
01:04:00,880 --> 01:04:04,560
Speaker 1: on off those high turnovers. So I have Rens spread

1385
01:04:04,640 --> 01:04:07,840
Speaker 1: projected at minus one actually right at minus one point five,

1386
01:04:07,920 --> 01:04:10,080
Speaker 1: So I like their spread of minus one point five

1387
01:04:10,280 --> 01:04:11,560
Speaker 1: at plus one thirty.

1388
01:04:11,720 --> 01:04:14,840
Speaker 3: All right, now, let's get to it, our underdog parlay.

1389
01:04:15,120 --> 01:04:17,280
Speaker 3: We've come close a couple of times over the past

1390
01:04:17,320 --> 01:04:19,200
Speaker 3: few weeks, and I gotta say it. I'll say it

1391
01:04:19,280 --> 01:04:21,400
Speaker 3: right off the top. This is the one. This is

1392
01:04:21,560 --> 01:04:24,520
Speaker 3: the one. Anthony will let you kick it off.

1393
01:04:24,840 --> 01:04:30,480
Speaker 2: Hey, congratulations Mauricio Pochettino, ile magic toussy, he is magic.

1394
01:04:30,720 --> 01:04:34,360
Speaker 2: The man is one league with PSG. They said he

1395
01:04:34,360 --> 01:04:36,600
Speaker 2: couldn't do it. They said he wouldn't win big trophies

1396
01:04:37,040 --> 01:04:37,800
Speaker 2: at PSG.

1397
01:04:37,880 --> 01:04:39,000
Speaker 1: They were minus fourteen.

1398
01:04:39,720 --> 01:04:44,439
Speaker 2: They said, look, they didn't win it last year. It's

1399
01:04:44,440 --> 01:04:46,960
Speaker 2: true when when tucle was running the show for the

1400
01:04:47,000 --> 01:04:50,760
Speaker 2: first half of the season. But yeah, you know, congratulations

1401
01:04:50,800 --> 01:04:53,640
Speaker 2: to them on winning the league. We're fading this week

1402
01:04:53,880 --> 01:04:57,439
Speaker 2: and look like Len's plus nine hundred. We're going deep

1403
01:04:57,440 --> 01:05:00,200
Speaker 2: into the into the barrel for an underdog here. It's

1404
01:05:00,200 --> 01:05:02,760
Speaker 2: not the greatest play in the world, but look, Lens

1405
01:05:02,760 --> 01:05:04,479
Speaker 2: have been in good form. They've won for their last

1406
01:05:04,480 --> 01:05:08,160
Speaker 2: five matches, and they're kind of a sneaky, you know,

1407
01:05:08,240 --> 01:05:11,240
Speaker 2: underrated squad of guys. They've run a little bit hot

1408
01:05:11,240 --> 01:05:13,840
Speaker 2: when you look overall at their expected goals compared to

1409
01:05:13,880 --> 01:05:16,800
Speaker 2: their actual goal difference. But again, you know, you got

1410
01:05:16,800 --> 01:05:19,400
Speaker 2: like the seventh or sixth best team in France at

1411
01:05:19,480 --> 01:05:21,360
Speaker 2: nine to one in a classic lead down off the

1412
01:05:21,440 --> 01:05:24,080
Speaker 2: championship spot. This is when you see teams take their

1413
01:05:24,080 --> 01:05:27,040
Speaker 2: foot off the gas, do some rotation. Uh, you know,

1414
01:05:27,080 --> 01:05:29,560
Speaker 2: so I'm going to play against PSG and they're not

1415
01:05:29,560 --> 01:05:31,600
Speaker 2: gonna win, but it's nine to one, it's worth a shot,

1416
01:05:31,720 --> 01:05:32,040
Speaker 2: all right.

1417
01:05:32,320 --> 01:05:35,720
Speaker 3: I'm going with Unjan Berlin six to one against RB

1418
01:05:36,040 --> 01:05:39,120
Speaker 3: Leipzig on Saturday morning at nine thirty. How these two

1419
01:05:39,160 --> 01:05:41,960
Speaker 3: teams just played a tight cup match in the DFB Pocal.

1420
01:05:42,680 --> 01:05:45,200
Speaker 3: RB Leipsig took that one to one after falling behind

1421
01:05:45,240 --> 01:05:47,400
Speaker 3: one nil, got a penalty and then a ninety second

1422
01:05:47,440 --> 01:05:52,360
Speaker 3: minute winner. Their lucky run continues since January first. Leipzig

1423
01:05:52,480 --> 01:05:54,440
Speaker 3: a team I keep betting against the losing. They're ten

1424
01:05:54,520 --> 01:05:56,840
Speaker 3: two to one wins, draw, lost, thirty five goals for

1425
01:05:57,360 --> 01:06:00,720
Speaker 3: nine goals against on twenty one point seven expected goals

1426
01:06:00,720 --> 01:06:03,680
Speaker 3: four and eleven point three expected goals against. They are

1427
01:06:03,800 --> 01:06:08,840
Speaker 3: overperforming by thirteen goals on offense and two goals on defense.

1428
01:06:09,040 --> 01:06:11,840
Speaker 3: It's fifteen goals. At some point these numbers should come down,

1429
01:06:12,120 --> 01:06:15,240
Speaker 3: and Unjan Berlin has been a solid solid team this year,

1430
01:06:15,320 --> 01:06:18,480
Speaker 3: especially defensively, where they ranked top seven in the Bundesliga

1431
01:06:18,760 --> 01:06:21,640
Speaker 3: in non penalty expected goals per ninety, shots per ninety,

1432
01:06:21,680 --> 01:06:24,440
Speaker 3: big chances per ninety and box entries for ninety. So

1433
01:06:24,720 --> 01:06:26,600
Speaker 3: this is the type of underdog I like to play

1434
01:06:26,760 --> 01:06:30,680
Speaker 3: a team that can drag themselves deep into the ninety

1435
01:06:30,720 --> 01:06:33,560
Speaker 3: minutes and hopefully come up on the right side of

1436
01:06:33,600 --> 01:06:35,400
Speaker 3: a coin flip should they be able to turn it

1437
01:06:35,440 --> 01:06:38,479
Speaker 3: into one. So give me Unjan Berlin six to one.

1438
01:06:38,920 --> 01:06:40,720
Speaker 3: BJA close it.

1439
01:06:40,680 --> 01:06:43,480
Speaker 1: Out Brentford three to one. I already mentioned this is

1440
01:06:43,520 --> 01:06:45,600
Speaker 1: a really good spot for Brentford. Team that's been in

1441
01:06:45,720 --> 01:06:49,800
Speaker 1: fantastic form one four of five and the expected goals

1442
01:06:49,880 --> 01:06:52,280
Speaker 1: numbers really show that they've played well in those matches.

1443
01:06:52,440 --> 01:06:55,400
Speaker 1: Plus three point five expected goal diffrenchal. We've talked about

1444
01:06:55,400 --> 01:06:57,600
Speaker 1: it all the time, but Brentford so much better at

1445
01:06:57,600 --> 01:06:59,280
Speaker 1: the Brentford Community Stadium than they are on the road.

1446
01:06:59,280 --> 01:07:01,480
Speaker 1: Plus four point expect a gold a frenchal at home

1447
01:07:01,840 --> 01:07:04,760
Speaker 1: and they have a plus one point seven. Expect a

1448
01:07:04,760 --> 01:07:08,520
Speaker 1: gold diffrenchal at home against top seven sides. Tottenham was

1449
01:07:08,560 --> 01:07:11,440
Speaker 1: due for some negative aggression. They got it against Brighton

1450
01:07:11,480 --> 01:07:14,520
Speaker 1: this past weekend. They were pretty poor at home. We're

1451
01:07:14,560 --> 01:07:17,560
Speaker 1: deserving one. No losers. I think we're gonna see some

1452
01:07:17,560 --> 01:07:20,040
Speaker 1: of that negative aggression where they've scored twenty one goals

1453
01:07:20,080 --> 01:07:23,640
Speaker 1: off of thirteen point six expected over their last eight matches.

1454
01:07:24,360 --> 01:07:27,040
Speaker 1: So I like Brentford three to one on the money

1455
01:07:27,080 --> 01:07:31,160
Speaker 1: line at home to pull an up set over Antonio Conte's.

1456
01:07:30,800 --> 01:07:34,200
Speaker 3: Men, should you and for this one you should throw

1457
01:07:34,240 --> 01:07:39,840
Speaker 3: a couple bucks on the three leg parlay. That's Brentford, Bunyan,

1458
01:07:39,920 --> 01:07:44,000
Speaker 3: Berlin and Lentz two hundred and seventy nine to one.

1459
01:07:44,280 --> 01:07:46,680
Speaker 3: Love it that that is. That's the one that's going

1460
01:07:46,720 --> 01:07:47,480
Speaker 3: to come through for us.

1461
01:07:47,480 --> 01:07:51,640
Speaker 2: Who's the last leg of that? It's gotta be PSG right, if.

1462
01:07:51,520 --> 01:07:53,440
Speaker 1: You want to get crazy out there, everybody and you

1463
01:07:53,480 --> 01:07:55,880
Speaker 1: want to do the championship hangover parlay. There's a look

1464
01:07:55,880 --> 01:07:58,760
Speaker 1: aheadline for Minds next week at five to one. I'm

1465
01:07:58,800 --> 01:08:00,720
Speaker 1: not sure what a parlay of mind five to one

1466
01:08:00,760 --> 01:08:04,919
Speaker 1: and Lens at nine to one Championship hangover Parlay. Who

1467
01:08:04,960 --> 01:08:06,200
Speaker 1: knows it could come through?

1468
01:08:06,920 --> 01:08:08,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, that Parlay is going to come through. And now

1469
01:08:08,960 --> 01:08:11,840
Speaker 3: we move on to our favorite bets for the Premier League. Anthony,

1470
01:08:12,080 --> 01:08:13,080
Speaker 3: let's start with you.

1471
01:08:13,400 --> 01:08:15,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna go Chelsea west Ham over two and

1472
01:08:15,760 --> 01:08:18,960
Speaker 2: a half goals. I'm just really concerned about both of

1473
01:08:19,000 --> 01:08:21,320
Speaker 2: these defenses we get down toward the end of the season,

1474
01:08:21,600 --> 01:08:24,799
Speaker 2: Chelsea conceding four goals to Brentford, five to Real Madrid

1475
01:08:24,880 --> 01:08:27,439
Speaker 2: over two legs, four to Arsenal today even though it

1476
01:08:27,479 --> 01:08:31,000
Speaker 2: probably should have been three. Chelsea played so well defensively

1477
01:08:31,080 --> 01:08:33,519
Speaker 2: for so long, and now I think that the pressure

1478
01:08:33,560 --> 01:08:35,280
Speaker 2: is off and that the stakes have come off for

1479
01:08:35,360 --> 01:08:37,760
Speaker 2: this team. They don't really need these matches as much.

1480
01:08:38,000 --> 01:08:40,439
Speaker 2: You're starting to see a letdown in their defensive form

1481
01:08:40,520 --> 01:08:42,880
Speaker 2: and they're starting to see these mistakes creep into their game.

1482
01:08:43,080 --> 01:08:45,599
Speaker 2: They just were not there for so long under Thomas Tookel.

1483
01:08:45,880 --> 01:08:47,719
Speaker 2: I still like their attack. I mean, I think Timo

1484
01:08:47,760 --> 01:08:50,840
Speaker 2: Werner has brought a much needed spark and he's really

1485
01:08:50,880 --> 01:08:54,599
Speaker 2: helped them add more potency in behind. But also I've

1486
01:08:54,600 --> 01:08:57,080
Speaker 2: got major questions about west Ham, who, while West ham

1487
01:08:57,160 --> 01:08:59,040
Speaker 2: should be able to find some success on the counter

1488
01:08:59,080 --> 01:09:01,799
Speaker 2: in this match. The defense has really fallen off, conceded

1489
01:09:01,800 --> 01:09:04,760
Speaker 2: over one point eight expected goals to Burnley and now

1490
01:09:04,800 --> 01:09:08,439
Speaker 2: without Kurtzuma and Asa Dat for this match, major concerns

1491
01:09:08,479 --> 01:09:10,800
Speaker 2: defensively and to look ahead for the Hammers with a

1492
01:09:10,920 --> 01:09:14,040
Speaker 2: potential or with a Europa League semifinal against Eintracht coming

1493
01:09:14,080 --> 01:09:16,360
Speaker 2: up on Thursday, just think that this game has the

1494
01:09:16,400 --> 01:09:19,120
Speaker 2: potential to get a little bit chaos and a little

1495
01:09:19,120 --> 01:09:21,400
Speaker 2: bit haywire. So I'm going over two and a half goals.

1496
01:09:21,600 --> 01:09:25,360
Speaker 3: I like Brentford plus three ten taking on Tottenham Hotspur

1497
01:09:25,400 --> 01:09:28,840
Speaker 3: over the weekend. Since Christian Ericsson made his debut for

1498
01:09:29,560 --> 01:09:31,960
Speaker 3: the Bees, Brentford are five to zero and two win

1499
01:09:32,120 --> 01:09:35,439
Speaker 3: draw loss, with fourteen goals scored, seven goals against and

1500
01:09:35,560 --> 01:09:38,800
Speaker 3: a plus four and a half expected goal differential. We've

1501
01:09:38,800 --> 01:09:42,120
Speaker 3: also talked about this team at the Brentford Community Stadium.

1502
01:09:42,520 --> 01:09:45,720
Speaker 3: They are a dynamic home team plus eight expected gold

1503
01:09:45,720 --> 01:09:47,960
Speaker 3: differential at home and it's so it's never a bid

1504
01:09:48,000 --> 01:09:49,559
Speaker 3: idea to back them at a price like this when

1505
01:09:49,600 --> 01:09:53,400
Speaker 3: they're playing on in friendly confines. Additionally, this is a

1506
01:09:53,439 --> 01:09:55,639
Speaker 3: team that punches up really well, they have wins over

1507
01:09:55,800 --> 01:09:58,400
Speaker 3: Arsenal and Chelsea on the season, a draw against Liverpool

1508
01:09:58,400 --> 01:10:02,400
Speaker 3: and played a close one against man City, and have

1509
01:10:02,560 --> 01:10:05,800
Speaker 3: a positive expected gol differential at home against the best

1510
01:10:05,840 --> 01:10:08,080
Speaker 3: seven teams in the Premier League. And I also think

1511
01:10:08,120 --> 01:10:10,120
Speaker 3: you're seeing an a flated number here on Tottenham. Given

1512
01:10:10,120 --> 01:10:12,120
Speaker 3: the spot, this is a must win spot for them

1513
01:10:12,160 --> 01:10:15,800
Speaker 3: to remain in touching distance of Arsenal in the race

1514
01:10:15,840 --> 01:10:19,160
Speaker 3: of the top four. Oftentimes, when bookmakers or when teams

1515
01:10:19,160 --> 01:10:21,240
Speaker 3: are in these must win spots, bookmakers will bake that

1516
01:10:21,280 --> 01:10:22,960
Speaker 3: into the number and put in a must win tax.

1517
01:10:23,000 --> 01:10:25,639
Speaker 3: I think that's happening here. So I'll be fading Tottenham,

1518
01:10:25,680 --> 01:10:28,040
Speaker 3: a team that has been running hot offensively for a while,

1519
01:10:28,120 --> 01:10:31,600
Speaker 3: still eight goals better than their expectacles for over the

1520
01:10:31,640 --> 01:10:34,759
Speaker 3: past few games. So fading Spurs back in the Bees

1521
01:10:35,200 --> 01:10:37,240
Speaker 3: three to one. Bjay take us.

1522
01:10:37,120 --> 01:10:40,880
Speaker 1: Home Arsenal plus one point fifteen at home against Manchester

1523
01:10:41,040 --> 01:10:44,880
Speaker 1: United at seven thirty and Eastern time. How can you

1524
01:10:44,920 --> 01:10:47,840
Speaker 1: back Manchester United with how they've looked as of lates.

1525
01:10:47,880 --> 01:10:51,920
Speaker 1: I mean, they looked very unmotivated against Liverpool on Tuesday.

1526
01:10:52,320 --> 01:10:55,719
Speaker 1: They got thoroughly thrashed and really it's an overall picture

1527
01:10:55,760 --> 01:10:58,559
Speaker 1: of what United has been like this season. They're pressing

1528
01:10:58,600 --> 01:11:00,760
Speaker 1: has been off. They're not pressing as the team, They're

1529
01:11:00,760 --> 01:11:04,000
Speaker 1: pressing as individuals, which is a big problem because it

1530
01:11:04,080 --> 01:11:05,880
Speaker 1: leaves them all out of swords. It leaves so much

1531
01:11:05,920 --> 01:11:09,080
Speaker 1: open area behind them. That's why you saw Liverpool get

1532
01:11:09,120 --> 01:11:11,559
Speaker 1: in behind so many times and thrash them, and all

1533
01:11:11,600 --> 01:11:14,160
Speaker 1: the United defenders pointing at each other like what's going on.

1534
01:11:14,400 --> 01:11:16,360
Speaker 1: United can get away with that type of stuff against

1535
01:11:16,400 --> 01:11:18,240
Speaker 1: smaller sides, but when they have to play against the

1536
01:11:18,240 --> 01:11:21,240
Speaker 1: Big six it becomes a real problem. In eight matches

1537
01:11:21,280 --> 01:11:24,479
Speaker 1: against the Big six, United has a minus eight point

1538
01:11:24,520 --> 01:11:27,040
Speaker 1: seven expected gold in frenchial and they're allowing one point

1539
01:11:27,080 --> 01:11:30,400
Speaker 1: seven expected goals per match. So going against an Arsenal

1540
01:11:30,439 --> 01:11:33,679
Speaker 1: team that got their confidence back against Chelsea on Wednesday

1541
01:11:33,680 --> 01:11:36,600
Speaker 1: winning four two at Stanford Bridge, I think this is

1542
01:11:36,600 --> 01:11:38,920
Speaker 1: a fantastic spot for the Gunners, who are much better

1543
01:11:39,000 --> 01:11:41,639
Speaker 1: at home than they are on the road plus thirteen

1544
01:11:41,680 --> 01:11:44,400
Speaker 1: point six expected gold differential at home. United has been

1545
01:11:44,479 --> 01:11:48,040
Speaker 1: very poor away from home minus five expected gold differential,

1546
01:11:48,080 --> 01:11:50,280
Speaker 1: and they're probably going to be without Paul Pogba and

1547
01:11:50,439 --> 01:11:52,960
Speaker 1: Luke Shaws, so I have Arsenal projected at minus one

1548
01:11:53,000 --> 01:11:55,639
Speaker 1: o five, so I love my gunners plus one fifteen

1549
01:11:55,960 --> 01:11:57,000
Speaker 1: to grab all three points.

1550
01:11:57,360 --> 01:11:59,800
Speaker 3: Right. That wraps up another episode of Wonder Goal for

1551
01:12:00,080 --> 01:12:02,559
Speaker 3: j Cunningham and Anthony Dubundo. I'm michael lebuff We will

1552
01:12:02,560 --> 01:12:06,080
Speaker 3: see you on Monday morning to talk about Champions League

1553
01:12:06,280 --> 01:12:12,680
Speaker 3: and more in Europe.