WEBVTT - Free Picks for EVERY Week 18 NFL Game (Ep. 420) 0:00:01.080 --> 0:00:03.240 Welcome in, everybody to betting pros. It's time to place 0:00:03.279 --> 0:00:06.040 your bets. It's me Joey p Joe Pi Zapia and 0:00:06.080 --> 0:00:08.479 it's week eighteen, and you know what that means. It's 0:00:08.520 --> 0:00:12.240 time to look ahead at the final regular season week 0:00:12.280 --> 0:00:14.280 of the NFL. Can you believe it? We're here already, 0:00:14.280 --> 0:00:17.200 and there's some major playoff implications. Some teams are in, 0:00:17.280 --> 0:00:19.880 some teams can get in, some teams need a lot 0:00:19.920 --> 0:00:21.720 of help, and some teams, well they can't be helped 0:00:21.720 --> 0:00:23.639 at all. But this team is here to help you. 0:00:23.720 --> 0:00:26.040 It's Sam Hoppin, It's Pat fitz Morris, and it's me 0:00:26.120 --> 0:00:27.640 and we're going to go through the sleigh talk about 0:00:27.680 --> 0:00:29.400 the early value on some of the lines in week 0:00:29.440 --> 0:00:34.240 eighteen where we see these games going. And last week, 0:00:34.280 --> 0:00:37.320 Pat fitz Morris, it was another wild and wacky week 0:00:37.600 --> 0:00:41.440 in the NFL, Arizona Cardinals getting the w against the Eagles. 0:00:42.120 --> 0:00:45.440 But luckily your packers have found themselves in a winning 0:00:45.479 --> 0:00:47.720 get in scenario. But you, my friends, seem to be 0:00:47.760 --> 0:00:49.600 of little faithfull, he told me before the show. 0:00:50.200 --> 0:00:52.239 Oh man, yeah, I just have a little bit of 0:00:52.280 --> 0:00:55.360 trepidation about that matchup against the Bears. Show just because 0:00:55.400 --> 0:00:57.200 the Bears have been playing so well. And we'll talk 0:00:57.240 --> 0:00:59.720 about it a little later. But like, the Packers are 0:00:59.720 --> 0:01:02.840 gonna have to truly earn their way into the playoffs. 0:01:02.880 --> 0:01:05.080 The Bears are not gonna lay down for them. So 0:01:06.120 --> 0:01:09.000 you know, if they win, they will have truly deserved it. 0:01:09.360 --> 0:01:12.640 All right, So Pat is hedging, but Sam is not. 0:01:12.800 --> 0:01:14.960 Sam is wrapping his Green Bay stuff right now. I 0:01:15.000 --> 0:01:16.160 don't think you can see it in the pox. You 0:01:16.240 --> 0:01:17.480 might have to pull that up a little bit, but 0:01:17.720 --> 0:01:19.760 there you go. There it is. The Green Bay Packers 0:01:19.760 --> 0:01:23.600 sweater is on this morning. So Sam, uh, this is 0:01:23.640 --> 0:01:27.600 I think the unexpected, maybe the most unexpected potential playoff 0:01:27.600 --> 0:01:29.880 appearance for the Packers. And what twenty five years for you? 0:01:30.880 --> 0:01:33.800 I mean, but yeah, it's been a long time. I mean, 0:01:34.640 --> 0:01:37.200 I don't know what expectations I really had for the 0:01:37.200 --> 0:01:39.200 Packers going into the season. I mean, I think the 0:01:39.240 --> 0:01:42.640 biggest thing was figuring out what Jordan Love is and 0:01:43.560 --> 0:01:46.360 I think we sort of have at least they're going 0:01:46.400 --> 0:01:48.840 to keep them around for another season or two, it 0:01:48.880 --> 0:01:52.800 seems like. But I'm excited about their potential to make 0:01:52.840 --> 0:01:57.200 the playoffs and and much more confident than my fellow. 0:01:57.320 --> 0:01:59.840 She's had Pat's. 0:01:59.000 --> 0:02:01.680 By the way, Joe thirty five years, I think was 0:02:01.720 --> 0:02:04.120 the last. Oh and actually I take that back. They 0:02:04.160 --> 0:02:06.960 didn't make it. It was nineteen eighty nine with Don Makowski. 0:02:07.480 --> 0:02:10.560 Imagine ten and six and they didn't make it in 0:02:10.639 --> 0:02:11.040 that year. 0:02:11.600 --> 0:02:13.520 Yeah. Wow, you guys have had a good run. My 0:02:13.560 --> 0:02:15.240 Patriots had a good run too. But all good things 0:02:15.280 --> 0:02:17.040 come to an end. At least they lost this past weekend. 0:02:17.080 --> 0:02:19.240 So thank goodness for that. I thank goodness for all 0:02:19.240 --> 0:02:20.960 the coverage we have here. Don't forget if you were 0:02:21.000 --> 0:02:23.639 having fun at Fantasy Pros and Betting Pros, subscribe to 0:02:23.680 --> 0:02:26.040 our channels. But subscribe over a Betting Pros right now 0:02:26.120 --> 0:02:28.240 because you will win a one year free premium upgrade 0:02:28.240 --> 0:02:30.720 when you do. Just ring that bell for notifications, drop 0:02:30.720 --> 0:02:32.760 a comment below on any video and that's it. That's 0:02:32.800 --> 0:02:34.960 all you gotta do. And it's not just NFL. We've 0:02:34.960 --> 0:02:37.720 also got the NBA Action Fast Break bets Matt Mody 0:02:38.000 --> 0:02:40.680 taking you through the NBA slate every single Wednesday, every 0:02:40.680 --> 0:02:43.760 single Friday, eleven am Eastern live right here on the channel. 0:02:43.919 --> 0:02:46.000 So don't miss that because that had NBA Betton's getting 0:02:46.040 --> 0:02:48.800 Hot woo wee. Good times. All right, let's start with 0:02:48.840 --> 0:02:50.600 some good times, and all the games are on Sunday 0:02:50.760 --> 0:02:52.359 because it's the last week of the season. Let's start 0:02:52.360 --> 0:02:57.000 with Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Baltimore asserted itself with dominant, so 0:02:57.120 --> 0:03:00.680 any any concerns I had about the Mottimore raven have 0:03:00.760 --> 0:03:04.280 been put to bed. So I apologize on half of 0:03:04.560 --> 0:03:08.640 myself that I did not believe enough of the Ravens, 0:03:08.639 --> 0:03:10.720 and I had Miami on the money line because I 0:03:10.720 --> 0:03:12.919 thought they were going to challenge them. They did not. 0:03:13.520 --> 0:03:16.120 They did not. But here we are, so a lot 0:03:16.120 --> 0:03:18.000 of teams again a week eighteen, Sam, this is the 0:03:18.040 --> 0:03:20.520 tough thing. You get teams that are sitting players. Seems that, 0:03:20.560 --> 0:03:22.720 you know, I can't do anything else. So when we're 0:03:22.760 --> 0:03:25.080 talking about this line right here, right now, you have 0:03:25.280 --> 0:03:28.800 Baltimore at four point underdogs, because the anticipation is they're 0:03:28.840 --> 0:03:32.160 not going to be, you know, putting anybody out there. 0:03:32.200 --> 0:03:33.959 They're going to take some weeks off and maybe they'll 0:03:33.960 --> 0:03:35.840 play half a game. We'll see thirty six and a 0:03:35.880 --> 0:03:38.080 half is the number plus one sixty five. And Sam 0:03:38.080 --> 0:03:40.240 like this is the perfect example of a week eighteen 0:03:40.280 --> 0:03:42.600 game already that is really difficult to gauge because of 0:03:42.640 --> 0:03:45.760 the variables and implications of teams that are in and 0:03:45.840 --> 0:03:48.480 have things to play for, teams that are in have 0:03:48.560 --> 0:03:50.560 nothing to play for in teams that you know are 0:03:50.600 --> 0:03:52.080 still fighting for their life. So what do you think 0:03:52.080 --> 0:03:53.600 about this line? This is a game you stay away 0:03:53.600 --> 0:03:55.280 from because of the implications of it. 0:03:56.320 --> 0:03:59.440 Yeah, so Ravens already had the one seed in the 0:03:59.480 --> 0:04:04.360 AFC line. I am wondering if they are going to 0:04:04.400 --> 0:04:08.320 play some of the starters, given how twenty nineteen went 0:04:08.640 --> 0:04:11.000 a couple of years ago when they had the ones 0:04:11.040 --> 0:04:13.200 he'd locked up going in the final week, they sat 0:04:13.360 --> 0:04:15.640 Lamar Jackson and some of their other starters and then 0:04:15.760 --> 0:04:19.120 got the doors blown off them in the divisional round 0:04:19.120 --> 0:04:22.080 against Tennessee. But I still think taking the double buy 0:04:22.160 --> 0:04:25.120 for them is the optimal move. Mason Rudolph is going 0:04:25.160 --> 0:04:29.400 to be starting again in this game for the Steelers. 0:04:29.400 --> 0:04:31.920 It sounds like can you pick it will be the backup, 0:04:32.000 --> 0:04:34.719 But I actually took the under thirty seven in this 0:04:34.880 --> 0:04:39.200 game earlier this morning. Neither team is particularly fast paced. 0:04:39.240 --> 0:04:42.880 The Ravens offense will obviously take a massive step back 0:04:42.960 --> 0:04:48.080 without Lamar Jackson, and this Pittsburgh defense has still played 0:04:48.560 --> 0:04:52.800 some decent games, the pass rush is still a force 0:04:52.880 --> 0:04:56.160 to be reckoned with, and Pittsburgh has been on offense 0:04:56.200 --> 0:04:59.920 a very run heavy team, especially over the last month. 0:05:00.160 --> 0:05:03.920 So I think all of this leads me to again 0:05:04.120 --> 0:05:07.040 the under in this game and a divisional matchup with 0:05:07.440 --> 0:05:09.320 one team really needing the win. 0:05:09.240 --> 0:05:11.960 Here, they need a win in some help, Pittsburgh needs 0:05:11.960 --> 0:05:14.120 a win and a Buffalo loss, a win and a 0:05:14.240 --> 0:05:18.799 Jacksonville loss or tie, a win at Houston, Indye tie, 0:05:19.120 --> 0:05:22.880 Pittsburgh tie, Jacksonville loss Houston, Indy doesn't end at a tie, 0:05:22.920 --> 0:05:25.360 and then Jacksonville loss plus a Denver win plus a 0:05:25.400 --> 0:05:28.360 Houston Indianapolis not ending at a tie. So there's a 0:05:28.400 --> 0:05:30.800 lot of complicated things here, So Pat, let's make it simple. 0:05:30.839 --> 0:05:33.520 Your thoughts on this Pittsburgh Baltimore game. 0:05:34.000 --> 0:05:36.479 Yeah, I think I can't remember if it was like 0:05:36.520 --> 0:05:39.120 twenty nine percent or thirty two percent, right in that range. 0:05:39.200 --> 0:05:40.440 Basically a one third. 0:05:40.360 --> 0:05:42.520 Chance for the Steelers to get into the playoffs per 0:05:42.680 --> 0:05:47.240 NFL dot Com. So yeah, no incentive for the Ravens. 0:05:47.240 --> 0:05:49.840 But Sam Rais is a really interesting point about their 0:05:49.960 --> 0:05:53.159 last go round. Maybe John Harbaugh wants to take a 0:05:53.160 --> 0:05:56.800 different approach after that and not totally lay down in 0:05:56.839 --> 0:06:01.440 Week eighteen. But they're probably gonna rest starters early if 0:06:01.480 --> 0:06:05.160 nothing else, So I don't trust the Steelers to take 0:06:05.240 --> 0:06:08.680 care of business in one of the most hostile road 0:06:08.800 --> 0:06:12.200 venues for any team in the league. And I really 0:06:12.240 --> 0:06:14.080 don't want to bet on the team that's probably gonna 0:06:14.080 --> 0:06:16.679 be resting players. But I do want to bet the under, 0:06:17.160 --> 0:06:20.039 as Sam mentioned, and I got it at thirty seven 0:06:20.080 --> 0:06:22.400 and a half. It feels like the totals should be 0:06:22.440 --> 0:06:24.720 like thirty four and a half thirty five for this one, 0:06:24.760 --> 0:06:26.920 so I think there is a lot of value on 0:06:26.960 --> 0:06:27.360 the under. 0:06:27.920 --> 0:06:30.240 Next one, here is a pick of Indianapolis hosting Houston. 0:06:30.279 --> 0:06:33.120 Both teams are nine and seven Indie minus one right 0:06:33.160 --> 0:06:35.239 now at home. Forty seven and a half is the number. 0:06:35.240 --> 0:06:37.440 Pat you can get minus one to five or Houston 0:06:37.480 --> 0:06:39.200 on the money line. You get minus one fifteen on 0:06:39.240 --> 0:06:42.159 the money line for Indianapolis. Just scenario wise, to kind 0:06:42.200 --> 0:06:45.040 of run through this real quick, Houston can clinch AFC 0:06:45.120 --> 0:06:48.120 South Division title with a win a Jacksonville loss or tie. 0:06:48.240 --> 0:06:50.080 They can clinch a playoff berth with a win a 0:06:50.160 --> 0:06:53.839 Jacksonville or loss Anna Pittsburgh loss or tie, and then 0:06:53.839 --> 0:06:56.320 Indy needs to win, and then he got a Jacksonville 0:06:56.360 --> 0:06:59.200 loss or tie or a Indie win a Jacksonville loss, 0:06:59.200 --> 0:07:01.560 so either one that is a good situation. So they 0:07:01.560 --> 0:07:04.360 can even tie and still make the playoffs. So wacky 0:07:04.400 --> 0:07:06.760 stuff here, But look, these teams have gotten this far. 0:07:07.440 --> 0:07:09.560 She's do coaches on a great job pat all year 0:07:09.560 --> 0:07:11.400 to get these two teams nine and seven, considering the 0:07:11.440 --> 0:07:14.200 obstacles they've overcome. That being said, do you have a 0:07:14.280 --> 0:07:15.960 lean here on one of the sides of this game? 0:07:16.640 --> 0:07:17.560 Oh? 0:07:17.600 --> 0:07:19.680 You know, I really don't show it. 0:07:19.800 --> 0:07:22.000 I find it interesting though that this opened with the 0:07:22.040 --> 0:07:24.160 Colts favored by two and a half and was quickly 0:07:24.200 --> 0:07:30.040 beat down. And isn't it interesting, gentlemen, how the Texans 0:07:30.080 --> 0:07:33.520 have become such a public team this year, And like 0:07:33.600 --> 0:07:36.280 we've seen that a lot, Like there was a while 0:07:36.320 --> 0:07:39.560 I was kind of consistently going against the Texans because 0:07:39.600 --> 0:07:41.640 I didn't think we were getting any sort of value 0:07:41.640 --> 0:07:44.400 on them. Like I feel like they have become a 0:07:44.400 --> 0:07:48.320 public team. Everyone loves CJ. Stroud, everyone loves Damiko Ryans, 0:07:48.360 --> 0:07:52.000 everyone loves the Texans. So yeah, I mean, the Colts 0:07:52.040 --> 0:07:53.640 beat the Texans back in Week two. I don't know 0:07:53.680 --> 0:07:56.080 if there are many takeaways. I mean, Anthony Richardson was 0:07:56.120 --> 0:07:59.960 still playing at the time, and the Indie jumped out 0:08:00.040 --> 0:08:02.440 to a big lead, but they were actually outgained in 0:08:02.440 --> 0:08:04.400 that game. I believe the Colts are just so hard 0:08:04.400 --> 0:08:06.840 to figure out. I mean, they've won six of their 0:08:06.920 --> 0:08:10.080 last eight games, but they lost by twenty to the 0:08:10.240 --> 0:08:13.520 Jake Browning led Bengals, and they lost to the Falcons 0:08:13.560 --> 0:08:16.320 by nineteen, So like, you don't know when they're gonna 0:08:16.320 --> 0:08:19.680 come out and lay an egg. I think the opening 0:08:19.760 --> 0:08:22.400 line of Colts minus two and a half was probably 0:08:23.280 --> 0:08:25.360 closer to what it should be than where the line 0:08:25.400 --> 0:08:27.680 is sitting right now. But I'm just not sure I 0:08:27.720 --> 0:08:29.640 want to bet the Colts this week. Yeah, I'm probably 0:08:29.640 --> 0:08:30.280 just staying away. 0:08:30.680 --> 0:08:33.040 I'm leading to the Colts on this one, Sam, just myself. 0:08:33.080 --> 0:08:35.880 They're at home. You know, you're asking a new head 0:08:35.880 --> 0:08:37.559 coach and a rookie QB to go on the road 0:08:37.559 --> 0:08:39.080 to win the game. And I'm not saying CJ. Straus 0:08:39.200 --> 0:08:41.280 not up for that task. I think he is. But 0:08:41.360 --> 0:08:42.800 at the same time, if you look back at that 0:08:42.880 --> 0:08:46.080 game earlier this year, you know, no, the Houston Texas 0:08:46.120 --> 0:08:48.520 haven't allowed one hundred yard rusher all season. The guy 0:08:48.559 --> 0:08:50.960 who came closest was actually Zach Moss with eighty eight, 0:08:51.120 --> 0:08:53.400 which is a credit to the offensive line. I think 0:08:53.400 --> 0:08:55.400 of the Indianapolis Colts and now they have Jonathan taylorrun 0:08:55.440 --> 0:08:57.480 the football coming off a good game. I think Taylor 0:08:57.520 --> 0:08:59.400 is the key to this game. His health and I 0:08:59.440 --> 0:09:01.360 think they put the ball in Jonathan Taylor's hands in 0:09:01.360 --> 0:09:02.880 this one. I think that's how they win. What do 0:09:02.880 --> 0:09:03.240 you think. 0:09:04.520 --> 0:09:06.800 I don't know that they'll be able to run the ball. 0:09:06.880 --> 0:09:10.400 I mean, like you said, Houston's rushing defense has been great. 0:09:10.480 --> 0:09:10.720 There. 0:09:11.760 --> 0:09:14.800 They rank second in success rate allowed over the last 0:09:14.840 --> 0:09:18.880 four seasons. Excuse me, over the last four weeks this season, 0:09:18.960 --> 0:09:21.600 their rush defense is first and success rate and second 0:09:21.679 --> 0:09:25.360 in rushing DVOA. So I think the way that Indy 0:09:25.480 --> 0:09:29.080 is going to need to attack Houston is through the air. 0:09:29.160 --> 0:09:34.000 But give me CJ. Stroud and the point or give 0:09:34.040 --> 0:09:36.240 me give me the Texans on the money line. I mean, 0:09:36.280 --> 0:09:40.640 he's he continues to play extremely well. They or the 0:09:40.679 --> 0:09:43.080 Texans could have had a better day this past week 0:09:43.080 --> 0:09:46.400 against Tennessee if not for their offense. Sort of sputtering 0:09:46.400 --> 0:09:48.559 out in the red zone a couple of times, which 0:09:48.840 --> 0:09:51.600 again makes me optimistic that they'll be able to move 0:09:51.640 --> 0:09:54.720 the ball, especially against this Colts defense that doesn't really 0:09:54.760 --> 0:09:58.040 have anything particularly special about them. So I love the 0:09:58.080 --> 0:10:00.520 Texans in this spot. I think CJ. Stroud steps up 0:10:00.520 --> 0:10:02.080 to the moment and delivers. 0:10:03.280 --> 0:10:05.040 All Right, two teams I want nothing to do with 0:10:05.120 --> 0:10:07.800 New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons. They're gonna be 0:10:08.120 --> 0:10:10.400 in New Orleans. The New Orleans Saints are three and 0:10:10.440 --> 0:10:12.120 a half point favorites in this one forty one and 0:10:12.160 --> 0:10:14.400 a half is the number, and then plus one fifty 0:10:14.440 --> 0:10:16.199 for the Atlanta Falcons, who have not played well on 0:10:16.280 --> 0:10:18.760 the road all year. Sam, this is another you know, 0:10:18.960 --> 0:10:22.439 kind of we'll evaluate Arthur Smith's situation. So I'm sure 0:10:22.880 --> 0:10:25.600 theoretically the effort level here for Atlanta is going to 0:10:25.640 --> 0:10:29.320 be high in terms of playoff implications. Obviously, you know, 0:10:29.400 --> 0:10:32.160 it's a little bit different for them, so they're trying 0:10:32.200 --> 0:10:35.360 to stay alive and see if they can somehow, you know, 0:10:35.400 --> 0:10:37.960 figure it all out. But in your opinion here, the 0:10:37.960 --> 0:10:40.800 way this line is set, I mean, it's a tough 0:10:40.800 --> 0:10:42.440 sell for me to have any sort of faith in 0:10:42.520 --> 0:10:45.480 either of these teams. New Orleans can clinch NFC South 0:10:45.520 --> 0:10:49.559 with a win and a Tampa loss or tie if 0:10:49.559 --> 0:10:53.000 they tie or Tampa loses, and then also they can 0:10:53.080 --> 0:10:55.880 win and clinch a playoff berth with a Seattle loss 0:10:55.960 --> 0:10:58.679 or tie, a green Bay loss or tie or no tie, 0:10:58.720 --> 0:11:01.520 Seattle loss and green Bay life. So again complicated. But 0:11:01.600 --> 0:11:04.600 for Atlanta, they gotta win and Tampa's gotta lose, and 0:11:04.600 --> 0:11:06.280 then they're still alive in this thing. Your thoughts on 0:11:06.320 --> 0:11:06.920 this contest. 0:11:07.559 --> 0:11:10.600 I agree it's tough to really want to rely on 0:11:10.640 --> 0:11:13.000 either side here, which is why I'm on the under 0:11:13.080 --> 0:11:16.800 for this game as well. I expect we get Desmond 0:11:16.840 --> 0:11:19.280 Ritter in this game. It sounds like they're going to 0:11:19.400 --> 0:11:23.520 try to get Taylor Heinike ready to play for Atlanta, 0:11:23.679 --> 0:11:28.040 but seems like it's not a given. Both defenses are 0:11:28.360 --> 0:11:31.440 top six in early down success rates, so they're putting 0:11:31.520 --> 0:11:36.160 teams behind the sticks early in the drive, and I 0:11:36.240 --> 0:11:40.000 just think these offenses, especially if you're gonna make Atlanta 0:11:40.080 --> 0:11:42.880 have to pass the ball, are not going to be 0:11:42.960 --> 0:11:45.880 able to move it very well against the Saints defense, 0:11:45.920 --> 0:11:48.720 which has had some good good games in the past, 0:11:48.720 --> 0:11:51.760 obviously had a great game this past week against Tampa Bay. 0:11:51.840 --> 0:11:54.200 So I like the under forty one and a half. 0:11:54.600 --> 0:11:56.920 All right, the under for you? Sam? What about you? Pat? 0:11:56.960 --> 0:11:58.160 What do you think about this one? Just stick with 0:11:58.240 --> 0:12:00.440 the under two and avoiding the sides. I think that's 0:12:00.720 --> 0:12:01.840 probably a good practice. 0:12:05.160 --> 0:12:07.319 I'm not sure I like the under, and in fact, 0:12:07.360 --> 0:12:10.280 I'm actually like a little inclined to bet the over. 0:12:10.360 --> 0:12:10.560 Here. 0:12:11.600 --> 0:12:13.760 The last time these two teams played, it was twenty 0:12:13.840 --> 0:12:18.920 four to fifteen, so only thirty nine points. But yeah, 0:12:18.960 --> 0:12:21.600 so last time they played twenty four to fifteen, but 0:12:21.720 --> 0:12:23.680 we saw these teams go up and down the field. 0:12:23.720 --> 0:12:26.679 There were over eight hundred yards of offense in that game, 0:12:27.280 --> 0:12:30.640 only two offensive touchdowns, both of them by Bijon Robinson. 0:12:30.840 --> 0:12:33.720 It's mainly because the Saints kept petering out near the 0:12:33.760 --> 0:12:36.680 goal line. They had to settle for five Blake Groupie 0:12:36.720 --> 0:12:42.720 field goals. So, boy, I don't know, Like, I think 0:12:42.880 --> 0:12:45.760 this number is just low enough where I think there's 0:12:45.800 --> 0:12:49.280 a smidge of value on the over, But I'm not 0:12:49.400 --> 0:12:51.640 interested in either side. Joe, you said it two really 0:12:51.720 --> 0:12:55.240 unpredictable teams, and you know, I just I don't know. 0:12:55.400 --> 0:12:57.160 I'm not betting Arthur Smith and I don't want to 0:12:57.200 --> 0:12:58.840 lay three and a half with the Saints either. 0:13:01.160 --> 0:13:03.600 All right, Now, Jacksonville can clench a playoff birth with 0:13:03.679 --> 0:13:06.880 a tie or a Pittsburgh lost or tie. If Pittsburgh 0:13:06.960 --> 0:13:10.040 loses and Denver loses and Houston Indianapolis doesn't end to 0:13:10.080 --> 0:13:12.840 the tie, Jacksonville's in now. Jacksonville can clinch the AFC 0:13:12.960 --> 0:13:16.160 South if they just win. Just handle your business against 0:13:16.280 --> 0:13:18.839 the Tennessee Titans. That's all you gotta do here. So 0:13:18.880 --> 0:13:21.480 the Tennessee Titans are at home, Jacksonville's going on the road. 0:13:22.320 --> 0:13:24.800 Tennessee is five point underdogs at home. It's a Mike 0:13:24.920 --> 0:13:27.640 Rabel team. So my guess is they are going to 0:13:28.000 --> 0:13:30.040 show up despite the five wins, and they are going 0:13:30.040 --> 0:13:32.600 to play hard and try and ruin someone's day. Forty 0:13:32.640 --> 0:13:34.880 is the number for this one plus one eighty on 0:13:34.920 --> 0:13:36.960 the money line for Tennessee, which is a little tempting 0:13:37.000 --> 0:13:38.960 to me. Pat, I don't know about you, because you 0:13:39.000 --> 0:13:41.280 know nothing. I'm sure Mike Rabel would love more than 0:13:41.280 --> 0:13:43.200 to stick it to somebody on the way out. Do 0:13:43.280 --> 0:13:46.040 you think Tennessee has that ability to do that against Jacksonville, 0:13:46.120 --> 0:13:47.640 or does Jacksonville go on the road and get a 0:13:47.760 --> 0:13:48.800 w and get themselves in. 0:13:49.960 --> 0:13:53.040 I think Tennessee absolutely has the ability to play spoiler 0:13:53.080 --> 0:13:54.959 here at Joe and I didn't take them on the 0:13:55.000 --> 0:13:57.400 money line, but I've already bet them with the points. 0:13:57.600 --> 0:14:01.840 And look, yeah, first of all, the Jaguars had lost 0:14:01.840 --> 0:14:05.360 four straight games before shutting out the Panthers twenty six nothing, 0:14:05.360 --> 0:14:07.400 and I'm not ready to say that their ship has 0:14:07.440 --> 0:14:11.040 been entirely righted just by virtue of shutting out the Panthers. 0:14:12.040 --> 0:14:12.880 The other point I. 0:14:12.800 --> 0:14:15.319 Want to make about this game, like, and this does 0:14:15.400 --> 0:14:18.160 apply to some of the other Week eighteen games as well, 0:14:18.800 --> 0:14:21.480 don't be so quick to dismiss the teams that have 0:14:21.600 --> 0:14:25.000 been eliminated from the playoffs and seemingly have nothing to 0:14:25.000 --> 0:14:28.200 play for. They want to go into the offseason on 0:14:28.240 --> 0:14:31.880 an upbeat note, feeling good about themselves, and a win 0:14:32.280 --> 0:14:34.520 gets a lot of the bad taste from a failed 0:14:34.560 --> 0:14:37.600 season out of your mouth. So maybe the season didn't 0:14:37.640 --> 0:14:39.800 go the way the Titans wanted to, But rather than 0:14:40.000 --> 0:14:43.960 end the season with yet the taste of another loss, 0:14:45.000 --> 0:14:48.960 they can spoil the Jaguars playoff hopes here and you know, 0:14:49.000 --> 0:14:51.560 go out on a triumphant note. So Mike Vrabel seems 0:14:51.560 --> 0:14:54.520 like a players coach. I think it's good players are 0:14:54.520 --> 0:14:56.920 going to be up for this one. And yeah, I 0:14:58.080 --> 0:15:01.520 think the Titans are a very good bat here say, 0:15:01.800 --> 0:15:02.160 you know, I. 0:15:02.080 --> 0:15:04.200 Think that's true of some teams and some coaches, But 0:15:04.280 --> 0:15:06.640 I think other teams and other coaches, you know, don't 0:15:06.640 --> 0:15:08.440 have their teams prepared. And that's why they're teams that 0:15:08.480 --> 0:15:11.160 are out and those guys are thinking about their playing reservations. 0:15:11.160 --> 0:15:13.880 They're not thinking about trying to get hurt. In Week eighteen, 0:15:14.240 --> 0:15:16.360 the Titans feel a little bit more like what Pat's 0:15:16.360 --> 0:15:18.000 talking about, like a team is going to be prepared. 0:15:18.040 --> 0:15:20.600 That being said, do you think that you want the 0:15:20.640 --> 0:15:22.720 Tennessee side of this game with the points because five 0:15:22.800 --> 0:15:23.920 is a pretty decent number. 0:15:24.520 --> 0:15:27.440 I do like Tennessee with the points here. The Jaguars 0:15:27.480 --> 0:15:31.640 are just on a downward trajectory right now. They continue 0:15:31.680 --> 0:15:35.720 to struggle on defense, their offenses losing pieces. They just 0:15:35.800 --> 0:15:40.680 lost Jamal Agnew so they are down to Parker Washington 0:15:40.880 --> 0:15:45.200 as their wide receiver too now. And this past week 0:15:45.320 --> 0:15:49.240 was their first positive EPA day on offense since they 0:15:49.240 --> 0:15:51.960 faced the Bengals in Week thirteen, and that obviously had 0:15:51.960 --> 0:15:55.240 to come against a Panthers defense that has not played 0:15:55.240 --> 0:15:58.680 well at all this season. So I really like Tennessee 0:15:58.680 --> 0:16:01.240 with the points here, all right. 0:16:01.120 --> 0:16:03.320 The next one here, the Detroit Lions are eleven to 0:16:03.320 --> 0:16:06.760 five hosting the Minnesota Vikings at seven to seven. The 0:16:06.880 --> 0:16:08.880 Lions are five and a half point favorites, and the 0:16:08.880 --> 0:16:10.920 consensus betting pros line forty six and a half is 0:16:10.960 --> 0:16:13.880 the number Minnesota on the upset plus two zero five. Now, look, 0:16:13.880 --> 0:16:17.240 Detroit doesn't have much to play. Four. They try their best, 0:16:18.000 --> 0:16:21.480 but the referees they're not having it over the weekend 0:16:21.640 --> 0:16:24.080 and now they're probably they're not in a position where 0:16:24.080 --> 0:16:26.120 they've really changed too much in terms of their stars. 0:16:26.160 --> 0:16:29.200 So they've won the division, They've locked that up. Do 0:16:29.240 --> 0:16:32.400 you think you see Dan Campbell pushes guys further or 0:16:32.440 --> 0:16:34.800 give him a little bit of a breather here, Sam, 0:16:35.080 --> 0:16:37.560 as this game goes on and looking forward to the 0:16:37.680 --> 0:16:40.000 ultimate success of the playoffs, Yeah. 0:16:39.880 --> 0:16:42.880 I really can't tell, because that at worst they're going 0:16:42.920 --> 0:16:47.040 to be the number three seed in the conference. They 0:16:47.120 --> 0:16:49.440 only get to the number two seed if they win, 0:16:49.600 --> 0:16:53.480 Aunt Dallas loses and Dallas plays in the late afternoon slot. 0:16:54.800 --> 0:16:58.440 I don't think we know who's starting from Minnesota. I 0:16:58.520 --> 0:17:03.360 expect it will be Nick Mullins. But this Detroit offense 0:17:03.440 --> 0:17:07.639 has gotten back on track after a brief stint underperforming 0:17:07.680 --> 0:17:10.679 they've had. They had three straight games without a success 0:17:10.760 --> 0:17:13.000 rate over forty percent, and they've been above forty two 0:17:13.040 --> 0:17:15.560 percent in each of the last three weeks. So if 0:17:15.600 --> 0:17:19.520 the Lions are going to play their starters the full game, 0:17:19.560 --> 0:17:23.480 which I think is what Dan Campbell will want to do, 0:17:23.640 --> 0:17:26.879 given that's the only way that they can move up 0:17:26.920 --> 0:17:29.080 to the number two seat, then I really like Detroit 0:17:29.920 --> 0:17:33.720 with the points here because Minnesota's defense has has shown 0:17:33.760 --> 0:17:35.960 some holes over the last couple of weeks, and again 0:17:36.200 --> 0:17:39.439 I expect that the Lions to continue to click on offense. 0:17:40.280 --> 0:17:42.359 Yeah, it seems like the season's taking its toll. Every 0:17:42.440 --> 0:17:44.159 bounce that went their way last year has gone the 0:17:44.200 --> 0:17:46.439 opposite way, and all the injuries finally I think mounted 0:17:46.480 --> 0:17:49.600 against Minnesota. I'm where Sam is. I'm on the signs 0:17:49.600 --> 0:17:51.320 of the Lions of this game. And you know, Dan 0:17:51.359 --> 0:17:53.760 Campbell is that kind of coach who wants to play 0:17:53.800 --> 0:17:56.439 every second of every game and bind every kneecap. I 0:17:56.440 --> 0:17:58.080 mean it feels about right, doesn't. 0:17:57.840 --> 0:18:01.600 It that it does show, and I feel like he's 0:18:01.640 --> 0:18:05.040 gonna want to get momentum back after not winning that 0:18:05.119 --> 0:18:07.240 game in Dallas, even though they should have won that 0:18:07.240 --> 0:18:10.280 game in Dallas, and even though that was disappointing to 0:18:10.320 --> 0:18:12.240 those of us who were greedy and took the Lions 0:18:12.280 --> 0:18:14.960 on the money line rather than taking the points in 0:18:15.040 --> 0:18:19.080 that game. Yeah, what a disappointing result that was. So yeah, 0:18:19.400 --> 0:18:21.240 I do feel like the Lions are going to play 0:18:21.280 --> 0:18:24.240 it out. And I mean the Vikings are a hot 0:18:24.280 --> 0:18:26.320 mess right now. Like, not only do they have this 0:18:26.440 --> 0:18:29.000 quarterback situation where we don't know whether it's gonna be 0:18:29.080 --> 0:18:31.760 Nick Mullins, maybe the return of Josh Dobbs. I don't 0:18:31.800 --> 0:18:34.960 think it's gonna be Jaron Hall again. But no matter 0:18:34.960 --> 0:18:39.480 who they put in, it's like resulting in turnovers galore. 0:18:40.080 --> 0:18:41.280 And the Vikings. 0:18:40.880 --> 0:18:43.760 Defense was a hot mess against the Packers. There were 0:18:43.840 --> 0:18:47.119 guys running wide open, like no one within twenty yards 0:18:47.119 --> 0:18:49.480 of them. So I think the Lions are going to 0:18:49.520 --> 0:18:50.640 take care of business here. 0:18:51.600 --> 0:18:51.800 You know. 0:18:51.880 --> 0:18:54.800