Speaker 1: Welcome in, everybody to betting pros. It's time to place
Speaker 1: your bets. It's me Joey p Joe Pi Zapia and
Speaker 1: it's week eighteen, and you know what that means. It's
Speaker 1: time to look ahead at the final regular season week
Speaker 1: of the NFL. Can you believe it? We're here already,
Speaker 1: and there's some major playoff implications. Some teams are in,
Speaker 1: some teams can get in, some teams need a lot
Speaker 1: of help, and some teams, well they can't be helped
Speaker 1: at all. But this team is here to help you.
Speaker 1: It's Sam Hoppin, It's Pat fitz Morris, and it's me
Speaker 1: and we're going to go through the sleigh talk about
Speaker 1: the early value on some of the lines in week
Speaker 1: eighteen where we see these games going. And last week,
Speaker 1: Pat fitz Morris, it was another wild and wacky week
Speaker 1: in the NFL, Arizona Cardinals getting the w against the Eagles.
Speaker 1: But luckily your packers have found themselves in a winning
Speaker 1: get in scenario. But you, my friends, seem to be
Speaker 1: of little faithfull, he told me before the show.
Speaker 2: Oh man, yeah, I just have a little bit of
Speaker 2: trepidation about that matchup against the Bears. Show just because
Speaker 2: the Bears have been playing so well. And we'll talk
Speaker 2: about it a little later. But like, the Packers are
Speaker 2: gonna have to truly earn their way into the playoffs.
Speaker 2: The Bears are not gonna lay down for them. So
Speaker 2: you know, if they win, they will have truly deserved it.
Speaker 1: All right, So Pat is hedging, but Sam is not.
Speaker 1: Sam is wrapping his Green Bay stuff right now. I
Speaker 1: don't think you can see it in the pox. You
Speaker 1: might have to pull that up a little bit, but
Speaker 1: there you go. There it is. The Green Bay Packers
Speaker 1: sweater is on this morning. So Sam, uh, this is
Speaker 1: I think the unexpected, maybe the most unexpected potential playoff
Speaker 1: appearance for the Packers. And what twenty five years for you?
Speaker 3: I mean, but yeah, it's been a long time. I mean,
Speaker 3: I don't know what expectations I really had for the
Speaker 3: Packers going into the season. I mean, I think the
Speaker 3: biggest thing was figuring out what Jordan Love is and
Speaker 3: I think we sort of have at least they're going
Speaker 3: to keep them around for another season or two, it
Speaker 3: seems like. But I'm excited about their potential to make
Speaker 3: the playoffs and and much more confident than my fellow.
Speaker 1: She's had Pat's.
Speaker 2: By the way, Joe thirty five years, I think was
Speaker 2: the last. Oh and actually I take that back. They
Speaker 2: didn't make it. It was nineteen eighty nine with Don Makowski.
Speaker 2: Imagine ten and six and they didn't make it in
Speaker 2: that year.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Wow, you guys have had a good run. My
Speaker 1: Patriots had a good run too. But all good things
Speaker 1: come to an end. At least they lost this past weekend.
Speaker 1: So thank goodness for that. I thank goodness for all
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Speaker 1: Hot woo wee. Good times. All right, let's start with
Speaker 1: some good times, and all the games are on Sunday
Speaker 1: because it's the last week of the season. Let's start
Speaker 1: with Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Baltimore asserted itself with dominant, so
Speaker 1: any any concerns I had about the Mottimore raven have
Speaker 1: been put to bed. So I apologize on half of
Speaker 1: myself that I did not believe enough of the Ravens,
Speaker 1: and I had Miami on the money line because I
Speaker 1: thought they were going to challenge them. They did not.
Speaker 1: They did not. But here we are, so a lot
Speaker 1: of teams again a week eighteen, Sam, this is the
Speaker 1: tough thing. You get teams that are sitting players. Seems that,
Speaker 1: you know, I can't do anything else. So when we're
Speaker 1: talking about this line right here, right now, you have
Speaker 1: Baltimore at four point underdogs, because the anticipation is they're
Speaker 1: not going to be, you know, putting anybody out there.
Speaker 1: They're going to take some weeks off and maybe they'll
Speaker 1: play half a game. We'll see thirty six and a
Speaker 1: half is the number plus one sixty five. And Sam
Speaker 1: like this is the perfect example of a week eighteen
Speaker 1: game already that is really difficult to gauge because of
Speaker 1: the variables and implications of teams that are in and
Speaker 1: have things to play for, teams that are in have
Speaker 1: nothing to play for in teams that you know are
Speaker 1: still fighting for their life. So what do you think
Speaker 1: about this line? This is a game you stay away
Speaker 1: from because of the implications of it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so Ravens already had the one seed in the
Speaker 3: AFC line. I am wondering if they are going to
Speaker 3: play some of the starters, given how twenty nineteen went
Speaker 3: a couple of years ago when they had the ones
Speaker 3: he'd locked up going in the final week, they sat
Speaker 3: Lamar Jackson and some of their other starters and then
Speaker 3: got the doors blown off them in the divisional round
Speaker 3: against Tennessee. But I still think taking the double buy
Speaker 3: for them is the optimal move. Mason Rudolph is going
Speaker 3: to be starting again in this game for the Steelers.
Speaker 3: It sounds like can you pick it will be the backup,
Speaker 3: But I actually took the under thirty seven in this
Speaker 3: game earlier this morning. Neither team is particularly fast paced.
Speaker 3: The Ravens offense will obviously take a massive step back
Speaker 3: without Lamar Jackson, and this Pittsburgh defense has still played
Speaker 3: some decent games, the pass rush is still a force
Speaker 3: to be reckoned with, and Pittsburgh has been on offense
Speaker 3: a very run heavy team, especially over the last month.
Speaker 3: So I think all of this leads me to again
Speaker 3: the under in this game and a divisional matchup with
Speaker 3: one team really needing the win.
Speaker 1: Here, they need a win in some help, Pittsburgh needs
Speaker 1: a win and a Buffalo loss, a win and a
Speaker 1: Jacksonville loss or tie, a win at Houston, Indye tie,
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh tie, Jacksonville loss Houston, Indy doesn't end at a tie,
Speaker 1: and then Jacksonville loss plus a Denver win plus a
Speaker 1: Houston Indianapolis not ending at a tie. So there's a
Speaker 1: lot of complicated things here, So Pat, let's make it simple.
Speaker 1: Your thoughts on this Pittsburgh Baltimore game.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I can't remember if it was like
Speaker 2: twenty nine percent or thirty two percent, right in that range.
Speaker 4: Basically a one third.
Speaker 2: Chance for the Steelers to get into the playoffs per
Speaker 2: NFL dot Com. So yeah, no incentive for the Ravens.
Speaker 2: But Sam Rais is a really interesting point about their
Speaker 2: last go round. Maybe John Harbaugh wants to take a
Speaker 2: different approach after that and not totally lay down in
Speaker 2: Week eighteen. But they're probably gonna rest starters early if
Speaker 2: nothing else, So I don't trust the Steelers to take
Speaker 2: care of business in one of the most hostile road
Speaker 2: venues for any team in the league. And I really
Speaker 2: don't want to bet on the team that's probably gonna
Speaker 2: be resting players. But I do want to bet the under,
Speaker 2: as Sam mentioned, and I got it at thirty seven
Speaker 2: and a half. It feels like the totals should be
Speaker 2: like thirty four and a half thirty five for this one,
Speaker 2: so I think there is a lot of value on
Speaker 2: the under.
Speaker 1: Next one, here is a pick of Indianapolis hosting Houston.
Speaker 1: Both teams are nine and seven Indie minus one right
Speaker 1: now at home. Forty seven and a half is the number.
Speaker 1: Pat you can get minus one to five or Houston
Speaker 1: on the money line. You get minus one fifteen on
Speaker 1: the money line for Indianapolis. Just scenario wise, to kind
Speaker 1: of run through this real quick, Houston can clinch AFC
Speaker 1: South Division title with a win a Jacksonville loss or tie.
Speaker 1: They can clinch a playoff berth with a win a
Speaker 1: Jacksonville or loss Anna Pittsburgh loss or tie, and then
Speaker 1: Indy needs to win, and then he got a Jacksonville
Speaker 1: loss or tie or a Indie win a Jacksonville loss,
Speaker 1: so either one that is a good situation. So they
Speaker 1: can even tie and still make the playoffs. So wacky
Speaker 1: stuff here, But look, these teams have gotten this far.
Speaker 1: She's do coaches on a great job pat all year
Speaker 1: to get these two teams nine and seven, considering the
Speaker 1: obstacles they've overcome. That being said, do you have a
Speaker 1: lean here on one of the sides of this game?
Speaker 5: Oh?
Speaker 4: You know, I really don't show it.
Speaker 2: I find it interesting though that this opened with the
Speaker 2: Colts favored by two and a half and was quickly
Speaker 2: beat down. And isn't it interesting, gentlemen, how the Texans
Speaker 2: have become such a public team this year, And like
Speaker 2: we've seen that a lot, Like there was a while
Speaker 2: I was kind of consistently going against the Texans because
Speaker 2: I didn't think we were getting any sort of value
Speaker 2: on them. Like I feel like they have become a
Speaker 2: public team. Everyone loves CJ. Stroud, everyone loves Damiko Ryans,
Speaker 2: everyone loves the Texans. So yeah, I mean, the Colts
Speaker 2: beat the Texans back in Week two. I don't know
Speaker 2: if there are many takeaways. I mean, Anthony Richardson was
Speaker 2: still playing at the time, and the Indie jumped out
Speaker 2: to a big lead, but they were actually outgained in
Speaker 2: that game. I believe the Colts are just so hard
Speaker 2: to figure out. I mean, they've won six of their
Speaker 2: last eight games, but they lost by twenty to the
Speaker 2: Jake Browning led Bengals, and they lost to the Falcons
Speaker 2: by nineteen, So like, you don't know when they're gonna
Speaker 2: come out and lay an egg. I think the opening
Speaker 2: line of Colts minus two and a half was probably
Speaker 2: closer to what it should be than where the line
Speaker 2: is sitting right now. But I'm just not sure I
Speaker 2: want to bet the Colts this week. Yeah, I'm probably
Speaker 2: just staying away.
Speaker 1: I'm leading to the Colts on this one, Sam, just myself.
Speaker 1: They're at home. You know, you're asking a new head
Speaker 1: coach and a rookie QB to go on the road
Speaker 1: to win the game. And I'm not saying CJ. Straus
Speaker 1: not up for that task. I think he is. But
Speaker 1: at the same time, if you look back at that
Speaker 1: game earlier this year, you know, no, the Houston Texas
Speaker 1: haven't allowed one hundred yard rusher all season. The guy
Speaker 1: who came closest was actually Zach Moss with eighty eight,
Speaker 1: which is a credit to the offensive line. I think
Speaker 1: of the Indianapolis Colts and now they have Jonathan taylorrun
Speaker 1: the football coming off a good game. I think Taylor
Speaker 1: is the key to this game. His health and I
Speaker 1: think they put the ball in Jonathan Taylor's hands in
Speaker 1: this one. I think that's how they win. What do
Speaker 1: you think.
Speaker 3: I don't know that they'll be able to run the ball.
Speaker 3: I mean, like you said, Houston's rushing defense has been great.
Speaker 1: There.
Speaker 3: They rank second in success rate allowed over the last
Speaker 3: four seasons. Excuse me, over the last four weeks this season,
Speaker 3: their rush defense is first and success rate and second
Speaker 3: in rushing DVOA. So I think the way that Indy
Speaker 3: is going to need to attack Houston is through the air.
Speaker 3: But give me CJ. Stroud and the point or give
Speaker 3: me give me the Texans on the money line. I mean,
Speaker 3: he's he continues to play extremely well. They or the
Speaker 3: Texans could have had a better day this past week
Speaker 3: against Tennessee if not for their offense. Sort of sputtering
Speaker 3: out in the red zone a couple of times, which
Speaker 3: again makes me optimistic that they'll be able to move
Speaker 3: the ball, especially against this Colts defense that doesn't really
Speaker 3: have anything particularly special about them. So I love the
Speaker 3: Texans in this spot. I think CJ. Stroud steps up
Speaker 3: to the moment and delivers.
Speaker 1: All Right, two teams I want nothing to do with
Speaker 1: New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons. They're gonna be
Speaker 1: in New Orleans. The New Orleans Saints are three and
Speaker 1: a half point favorites in this one forty one and
Speaker 1: a half is the number, and then plus one fifty
Speaker 1: for the Atlanta Falcons, who have not played well on
Speaker 1: the road all year. Sam, this is another you know,
Speaker 1: kind of we'll evaluate Arthur Smith's situation. So I'm sure
Speaker 1: theoretically the effort level here for Atlanta is going to
Speaker 1: be high in terms of playoff implications. Obviously, you know,
Speaker 1: it's a little bit different for them, so they're trying
Speaker 1: to stay alive and see if they can somehow, you know,
Speaker 1: figure it all out. But in your opinion here, the
Speaker 1: way this line is set, I mean, it's a tough
Speaker 1: sell for me to have any sort of faith in
Speaker 1: either of these teams. New Orleans can clinch NFC South
Speaker 1: with a win and a Tampa loss or tie if
Speaker 1: they tie or Tampa loses, and then also they can
Speaker 1: win and clinch a playoff berth with a Seattle loss
Speaker 1: or tie, a green Bay loss or tie or no tie,
Speaker 1: Seattle loss and green Bay life. So again complicated. But
Speaker 1: for Atlanta, they gotta win and Tampa's gotta lose, and
Speaker 1: then they're still alive in this thing. Your thoughts on
Speaker 1: this contest.
Speaker 3: I agree it's tough to really want to rely on
Speaker 3: either side here, which is why I'm on the under
Speaker 3: for this game as well. I expect we get Desmond
Speaker 3: Ritter in this game. It sounds like they're going to
Speaker 3: try to get Taylor Heinike ready to play for Atlanta,
Speaker 3: but seems like it's not a given. Both defenses are
Speaker 3: top six in early down success rates, so they're putting
Speaker 3: teams behind the sticks early in the drive, and I
Speaker 3: just think these offenses, especially if you're gonna make Atlanta
Speaker 3: have to pass the ball, are not going to be
Speaker 3: able to move it very well against the Saints defense,
Speaker 3: which has had some good good games in the past,
Speaker 3: obviously had a great game this past week against Tampa Bay.
Speaker 3: So I like the under forty one and a half.
Speaker 1: All right, the under for you? Sam? What about you? Pat?
Speaker 1: What do you think about this one? Just stick with
Speaker 1: the under two and avoiding the sides. I think that's
Speaker 1: probably a good practice.
Speaker 2: I'm not sure I like the under, and in fact,
Speaker 2: I'm actually like a little inclined to bet the over.
Speaker 5: Here.
Speaker 2: The last time these two teams played, it was twenty
Speaker 2: four to fifteen, so only thirty nine points. But yeah,
Speaker 2: so last time they played twenty four to fifteen, but
Speaker 2: we saw these teams go up and down the field.
Speaker 2: There were over eight hundred yards of offense in that game,
Speaker 2: only two offensive touchdowns, both of them by Bijon Robinson.
Speaker 2: It's mainly because the Saints kept petering out near the
Speaker 2: goal line. They had to settle for five Blake Groupie
Speaker 2: field goals. So, boy, I don't know, Like, I think
Speaker 2: this number is just low enough where I think there's
Speaker 2: a smidge of value on the over, But I'm not
Speaker 2: interested in either side. Joe, you said it two really
Speaker 2: unpredictable teams, and you know, I just I don't know.
Speaker 2: I'm not betting Arthur Smith and I don't want to
Speaker 2: lay three and a half with the Saints either.
Speaker 1: All right, Now, Jacksonville can clench a playoff birth with
Speaker 1: a tie or a Pittsburgh lost or tie. If Pittsburgh
Speaker 1: loses and Denver loses and Houston Indianapolis doesn't end to
Speaker 1: the tie, Jacksonville's in now. Jacksonville can clinch the AFC
Speaker 1: South if they just win. Just handle your business against
Speaker 1: the Tennessee Titans. That's all you gotta do here. So
Speaker 1: the Tennessee Titans are at home, Jacksonville's going on the road.
Speaker 1: Tennessee is five point underdogs at home. It's a Mike
Speaker 1: Rabel team. So my guess is they are going to
Speaker 1: show up despite the five wins, and they are going
Speaker 1: to play hard and try and ruin someone's day. Forty
Speaker 1: is the number for this one plus one eighty on
Speaker 1: the money line for Tennessee, which is a little tempting
Speaker 1: to me. Pat, I don't know about you, because you
Speaker 1: know nothing. I'm sure Mike Rabel would love more than
Speaker 1: to stick it to somebody on the way out. Do
Speaker 1: you think Tennessee has that ability to do that against Jacksonville,
Speaker 1: or does Jacksonville go on the road and get a
Speaker 1: w and get themselves in.
Speaker 2: I think Tennessee absolutely has the ability to play spoiler
Speaker 2: here at Joe and I didn't take them on the
Speaker 2: money line, but I've already bet them with the points.
Speaker 2: And look, yeah, first of all, the Jaguars had lost
Speaker 2: four straight games before shutting out the Panthers twenty six nothing,
Speaker 2: and I'm not ready to say that their ship has
Speaker 2: been entirely righted just by virtue of shutting out the Panthers.
Speaker 4: The other point I.
Speaker 2: Want to make about this game, like, and this does
Speaker 2: apply to some of the other Week eighteen games as well,
Speaker 2: don't be so quick to dismiss the teams that have
Speaker 2: been eliminated from the playoffs and seemingly have nothing to
Speaker 2: play for. They want to go into the offseason on
Speaker 2: an upbeat note, feeling good about themselves, and a win
Speaker 2: gets a lot of the bad taste from a failed
Speaker 2: season out of your mouth. So maybe the season didn't
Speaker 2: go the way the Titans wanted to, But rather than
Speaker 2: end the season with yet the taste of another loss,
Speaker 2: they can spoil the Jaguars playoff hopes here and you know,
Speaker 2: go out on a triumphant note. So Mike Vrabel seems
Speaker 2: like a players coach. I think it's good players are
Speaker 2: going to be up for this one. And yeah, I
Speaker 2: think the Titans are a very good bat here say,
Speaker 2: you know, I.
Speaker 1: Think that's true of some teams and some coaches, But
Speaker 1: I think other teams and other coaches, you know, don't
Speaker 1: have their teams prepared. And that's why they're teams that
Speaker 1: are out and those guys are thinking about their playing reservations.
Speaker 1: They're not thinking about trying to get hurt. In Week eighteen,
Speaker 1: the Titans feel a little bit more like what Pat's
Speaker 1: talking about, like a team is going to be prepared.
Speaker 1: That being said, do you think that you want the
Speaker 1: Tennessee side of this game with the points because five
Speaker 1: is a pretty decent number.
Speaker 3: I do like Tennessee with the points here. The Jaguars
Speaker 3: are just on a downward trajectory right now. They continue
Speaker 3: to struggle on defense, their offenses losing pieces. They just
Speaker 3: lost Jamal Agnew so they are down to Parker Washington
Speaker 3: as their wide receiver too now. And this past week
Speaker 3: was their first positive EPA day on offense since they
Speaker 3: faced the Bengals in Week thirteen, and that obviously had
Speaker 3: to come against a Panthers defense that has not played
Speaker 3: well at all this season. So I really like Tennessee
Speaker 3: with the points here, all right.
Speaker 1: The next one here, the Detroit Lions are eleven to
Speaker 1: five hosting the Minnesota Vikings at seven to seven. The
Speaker 1: Lions are five and a half point favorites, and the
Speaker 1: consensus betting pros line forty six and a half is
Speaker 1: the number Minnesota on the upset plus two zero five. Now, look,
Speaker 1: Detroit doesn't have much to play. Four. They try their best,
Speaker 1: but the referees they're not having it over the weekend
Speaker 1: and now they're probably they're not in a position where
Speaker 1: they've really changed too much in terms of their stars.
Speaker 1: So they've won the division, They've locked that up. Do
Speaker 1: you think you see Dan Campbell pushes guys further or
Speaker 1: give him a little bit of a breather here, Sam,
Speaker 1: as this game goes on and looking forward to the
Speaker 1: ultimate success of the playoffs, Yeah.
Speaker 3: I really can't tell, because that at worst they're going
Speaker 3: to be the number three seed in the conference. They
Speaker 3: only get to the number two seed if they win,
Speaker 3: Aunt Dallas loses and Dallas plays in the late afternoon slot.
Speaker 3: I don't think we know who's starting from Minnesota. I
Speaker 3: expect it will be Nick Mullins. But this Detroit offense
Speaker 3: has gotten back on track after a brief stint underperforming
Speaker 3: they've had. They had three straight games without a success
Speaker 3: rate over forty percent, and they've been above forty two
Speaker 3: percent in each of the last three weeks. So if
Speaker 3: the Lions are going to play their starters the full game,
Speaker 3: which I think is what Dan Campbell will want to do,
Speaker 3: given that's the only way that they can move up
Speaker 3: to the number two seat, then I really like Detroit
Speaker 3: with the points here because Minnesota's defense has has shown
Speaker 3: some holes over the last couple of weeks, and again
Speaker 3: I expect that the Lions to continue to click on offense.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it seems like the season's taking its toll. Every
Speaker 1: bounce that went their way last year has gone the
Speaker 1: opposite way, and all the injuries finally I think mounted
Speaker 1: against Minnesota. I'm where Sam is. I'm on the signs
Speaker 1: of the Lions of this game. And you know, Dan
Speaker 1: Campbell is that kind of coach who wants to play
Speaker 1: every second of every game and bind every kneecap. I
Speaker 1: mean it feels about right, doesn't.
Speaker 2: It that it does show, and I feel like he's
Speaker 2: gonna want to get momentum back after not winning that
Speaker 2: game in Dallas, even though they should have won that
Speaker 2: game in Dallas, and even though that was disappointing to
Speaker 2: those of us who were greedy and took the Lions
Speaker 2: on the money line rather than taking the points in
Speaker 2: that game. Yeah, what a disappointing result that was. So yeah,
Speaker 2: I do feel like the Lions are going to play
Speaker 2: it out. And I mean the Vikings are a hot
Speaker 2: mess right now. Like, not only do they have this
Speaker 2: quarterback situation where we don't know whether it's gonna be
Speaker 2: Nick Mullins, maybe the return of Josh Dobbs. I don't
Speaker 2: think it's gonna be Jaron Hall again. But no matter
Speaker 2: who they put in, it's like resulting in turnovers galore.
Speaker 4: And the Vikings.
Speaker 2: Defense was a hot mess against the Packers. There were
Speaker 2: guys running wide open, like no one within twenty yards
Speaker 2: of them. So I think the Lions are going to
Speaker 2: take care of business here.
Speaker 4: You know.
Speaker 2: The lack of motivation is maybe holding this number down
Speaker 2: a little bit.
Speaker 4: I like him. If I can get him at minus five.
Speaker 1: This next game, I gotta be honest, boys, I want
Speaker 1: nothing to do with. The Patriots are at home four
Speaker 1: and twelve minus two and a half against the New
Speaker 1: York Jets. The number for this game is thirty and
Speaker 1: a half plus one twenty for the Jets of the
Speaker 1: money line. My temptation, Pat is to look for the
Speaker 1: Jets here because there's something profound about the circle of
Speaker 1: life where Bill Belichick dominates the Jets his entire career
Speaker 1: and all these things and wins all these Super Bowls
Speaker 1: and all this stuff, and then maybe the last game
Speaker 1: he coaches could be a loss to the New York
Speaker 1: Jets in New England. I like the symmetry of that.
Speaker 1: It's a good story, but I don't know if I
Speaker 1: can invest in it. At the end of the day,
Speaker 1: look tough day at the office, probably for Breeze Hall,
Speaker 1: because they're really good against the run. You take that away,
Speaker 1: then you're making the Jets quarterbacks beat you, and I
Speaker 1: don't know if they're capable of that. I hate this game, Pat,
Speaker 1: I'm running away your thoughts.
Speaker 4: I hate it too, Joe.
Speaker 2: I initially thought I was going to betting the under
Speaker 2: figure and we'd get a number at like thirty three
Speaker 2: or thirty four.
Speaker 1: Nope, No, thirty.
Speaker 2: Yeah, they set this bar really low, so I don't
Speaker 2: even have any interest in betting that.
Speaker 4: I'm walking away like you.
Speaker 1: All right, So pat and I have left for the evening, Sam,
Speaker 1: would you like to join us out at the bar.
Speaker 3: No, give me the Patriots and Bill Belichick and potentially
Speaker 3: his final game as the Patriots head coach. That is
Speaker 3: my hard hitting analysis right there.
Speaker 1: That makes me sad because the last thing I want
Speaker 1: to do is the Patriots fans win another game and
Speaker 1: ruin any more draft position already that we've ruined, So
Speaker 1: that makes me even more angry. But let's move on.
Speaker 1: Carolina is gonna host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Boy, Tampa
Speaker 1: needs Carolina Panthers in the worst weight here. They had
Speaker 1: it right there for themselves last week. Now they've put
Speaker 1: themselves in this scenario where they got to win this
Speaker 1: week and keep that train going. Unfortunately, so they are
Speaker 1: five and a half point favorites on the road, which
Speaker 1: makes sense. That feels about right to me. Thirty seven
Speaker 1: and a half is the number plus two hundred for
Speaker 1: the Carolina money line. Now, Carolina has nothing to play
Speaker 1: for here, Sam. They are misery. They are terrible. Do
Speaker 1: you think they can play spoiler here to Tampa Bay
Speaker 1: or do you think Tampa just goes out there and
Speaker 1: from a personnel perspective, just handles them. And considering you
Speaker 1: know what we've seen sometimes from Mike Evans against Carolina,
Speaker 1: this could be a lots of props on the overs
Speaker 1: on Mike Evans.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this one. I think there's a couple of ways
Speaker 3: to attack this one. I think that the Bucks, I
Speaker 3: think take care of business. But if Tampa Bay leans
Speaker 3: too heavily into the run, then I think Carolina has
Speaker 3: a chance to cover. Because Rashad White has been one
Speaker 3: of the worst rushers in the league this year. He's
Speaker 3: near the bottom and rushing yards over expectation. The Carolina
Speaker 3: rushing defense has actually been pretty solid in their pass
Speaker 3: defense is what teams are having success doing. So with
Speaker 3: Baker banged up a little bit, it sounds like he's
Speaker 3: going to play, but and he has been playing really well.
Speaker 3: I do think that, you know, two drives into the game,
Speaker 3: if Tampa Bay is leaning on the run, I think
Speaker 3: there's a potential live betting opportunity with the carol with
Speaker 3: Carolina and the points. But I don't see a way
Speaker 3: that I want to attack it early on, before the
Speaker 3: game starts.
Speaker 1: It makes sense to me here. I mean I don't
Speaker 1: have faith in Carolina to cover any number or really necessarily,
Speaker 1: but Tampa, I just think is the better personnel. This is,
Speaker 1: this is this is a win in your in situation.
Speaker 1: I think Tampa handles their business. What do you think here, Pat.
Speaker 4: I think they probably handle their business, Joe.
Speaker 1: But like with the five and a half, they're good
Speaker 1: enough to give you pause. If this was three and
Speaker 1: a half, I think we feel much better about it.
Speaker 2: It is, and it's another one of those instances where
Speaker 2: maybe we see the Panthers rally just because like it's
Speaker 2: been a nightmarish season. Maybe you don't feel as bad
Speaker 2: about yourself if you go into the off season with
Speaker 2: like an upset win and really play the spoiler for
Speaker 2: a divisional rival that needs this win badly. But yeah,
Speaker 2: for that reason, the bet here that I would want
Speaker 2: to make if I were playing it, I mean, forced
Speaker 2: to make about it, I'd probably want to bet Tampa,
Speaker 2: But I just I don't see enough value to do it.
Speaker 4: Joe.
Speaker 2: What sort of total are we getting on a number
Speaker 2: of drinks? Thrown by David Tepper.
Speaker 1: This game, I'm gonna send it. I'm gonna set it
Speaker 1: at one and a half because you know, you gotta
Speaker 1: imagine these double fit after last week for sure. By
Speaker 1: the way, the same Panther team that got shut out
Speaker 1: by the Jaguars on Sunday. So I don't have too
Speaker 1: much trade. I'll take Tampa in the points here. I
Speaker 1: might close my eyes, but hopefully I get that one
Speaker 1: big Mike Evans touchdown and that'll start to make me
Speaker 1: feel better as this game goes on, Cleveland Cincinnati. The
Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns are going to the playoffs, folks with elite
Speaker 1: Joe Flacco, I love it. The Bengals are eight and eight.
Speaker 1: They're five point favorites, though at home, because Cleveland is
Speaker 1: going to take their feet off the gas because there's
Speaker 1: nothing they can dearly do to better their situation. Thirty
Speaker 1: nine and a half is a number plus one point
Speaker 1: eighty here on the Cleveland money line, which is kind
Speaker 1: of interesting here because, like I get it, Cincinnati pat
Speaker 1: is another team. Maybe they're playing for pride, but is
Speaker 1: that enough here against the backups of Cleveland to cover five?
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the thing, Joe, I mean, the Browns have
Speaker 2: no incentive whatsoever being locked into that five seed. But
Speaker 2: maybe they play their starters for a quarter and a
Speaker 2: half just to keep a little bit of momentum going
Speaker 2: into the first round. And as you said, really there's
Speaker 2: no momentum, no incentive for the Bengals either, having been
Speaker 2: eliminated from the playoffs.
Speaker 4: So I'm just gonna walk away from this.
Speaker 1: One, all right. So Pat's walking away another game where
Speaker 1: you don't know exactly who's going to be on the
Speaker 1: field for. How long do you see this one in
Speaker 1: the same Sam.
Speaker 3: No, I don't think Cleveland plays any of their major starters.
Speaker 3: There's really no incentive for them to. I understand that
Speaker 3: the rest versus RUSS debate here, but I think some
Speaker 3: of the injuries that Cleveland has suffered on defense is
Speaker 3: enough for them to say, Okay, we don't want any
Speaker 3: more of those to happen, especially with guys like Miles
Speaker 3: Garrett and Joe Flacco. But I do think one bigger trend,
Speaker 3: and I know I've mentioned this a number of times
Speaker 3: on the show this year, is in these games with
Speaker 3: very uncertain situations, just to bet the plus money odds
Speaker 3: on these things to hopefully strike gold with the variants,
Speaker 3: So I think again, Cincinnati or excuse me, Cleveland has
Speaker 3: a slight coaching advantage over Cincinnati as well, And I
Speaker 3: don't know. I I think taking the Browns on the
Speaker 3: money line is the better way to play it than
Speaker 3: taking them with the points. So it's a weird situation
Speaker 3: because we have, again, one team with no way to
Speaker 3: improve their playoff seating and one team that's eliminated as well,
Speaker 3: so there's really no incentive for either of them to win,
Speaker 3: though a confidence boost might help a little. So uh,
Speaker 3: that's the way I'd be leaning for this game.
Speaker 1: If Nick Chubb was healthy, would the Cleveland Browns be
Speaker 1: the most dangerous team in the AFC?
Speaker 3: SAM, I honestly don't know that Nick Chubb changes things
Speaker 3: that much, and I know that I know that's a
Speaker 3: little spicy to say, but they're they're passing the ball
Speaker 3: so well. Like the the Amari Cooper connection, the Elijah
Speaker 3: Moore connection has been working well. David and Joku is
Speaker 3: having a great you know, last month.
Speaker 1: After all these years to unlock David Joku. Who'd have
Speaker 1: thought that was coming? Not not me, not me?
Speaker 3: But I think I don't know, I don't I don't
Speaker 3: think it changes that much. I think the health on
Speaker 3: defense is what worries me the most for my Browns
Speaker 3: AFC championship future.
Speaker 1: What do you think, Patt, do you think of Nick
Speaker 1: Chubb was still kicking around here? I mean, it's great
Speaker 1: to be throwing the football, but imagine having Nick Chub
Speaker 1: running it too, with that passing attack and running the
Speaker 1: play action off him. I mean, geez, what could have been?
Speaker 1: I guess that's kind of the question.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, and make the Browns offense a little
Speaker 2: more dangerous. But you know, there's the whole how much
Speaker 2: do running backs matter?
Speaker 4: Debates?
Speaker 2: And Jerome Ford is actually yeah, Jerome Ford's good though,
Speaker 2: Like I like Jerome Ford, So I mean, no question,
Speaker 2: nick healthy Nick Chobb is the better running back. But
Speaker 2: it's not like they don't have a running game with
Speaker 2: Ford and a little bit of Kareem Hunt sprinkled in.
Speaker 2: So like, the Browns are going to be one of
Speaker 2: the I can't wait to watch their first round playoff game,
Speaker 2: Like this is one of the teams I'm most excited
Speaker 2: about watching. In the first weekend of the playoffs.
Speaker 1: Seattle can clinch a playoff berth with a win or
Speaker 1: a and a Green Bay loss or tie, or a
Speaker 1: green Bay loss and a Tampa Bay loss or with
Speaker 1: a tie of their own and a green Bay loss,
Speaker 1: and in New Orleans ties. So I hope you're all
Speaker 1: keeping track at home of all these scenarios here. Basically,
Speaker 1: if you're Seattle, you gotta win a football game here.
Speaker 1: That's what you got to do and hope for the best. Now,
Speaker 1: the problem is they're in that later window, so I
Speaker 1: don't know how much it's going to change effort level wise,
Speaker 1: but they are eight and eight going to Arizona. This
Speaker 1: is the first of the four o'clock games we're going
Speaker 1: to talk about here. Three point favorites. They are on
Speaker 1: the road against Arizona. Forty seven and a half is
Speaker 1: the total plus one thirty five for Arizona on the
Speaker 1: money line. Sam will start with you on this one here,
Speaker 1: Seattle on the road with the three or do you
Speaker 1: like Arizona for the upset?
Speaker 3: My one note is no idea. I think I take
Speaker 3: the Cardinals here. I mean they've they've played well against
Speaker 3: the Eagles, who I know are struggling quite a bit,
Speaker 3: but Seattle's defense has taken a big step back here.
Speaker 3: Kyler Murray is playing Okay, I don't know. Yeah, I'm
Speaker 3: staying away from this game right.
Speaker 1: Now, understandably. So, Pat, are you also somebody who's letting
Speaker 1: this one go in week eighteen, because well, it's complicated.
Speaker 2: I am letting this one go, Joe. It is complicated.
Speaker 2: It's a really interesting line. And man, the Cardinals are
Speaker 2: plucky and kind of have been all year for the
Speaker 2: most part, Like even when they didn't have Kyler Murray,
Speaker 2: they were scrappy with Josh Dobbs and you know, taking
Speaker 2: down the Eagles. What a feather in Jonathan Gannon's cap,
Speaker 2: pardon the pun with the Eagles. But so now they
Speaker 2: get another Bird team that they could knock off.
Speaker 4: The Seahawks.
Speaker 2: Yes, still have a chance to squeeze into the playoffs.
Speaker 2: They're highly motivated. But I can't bet the Seahawks here
Speaker 2: with the way their defense is completely fallen apart. I mean,
Speaker 2: they are having some major issues, Like this was a
Speaker 2: pretty good defense earlier in the season, and right now, man,
Speaker 2: they are just they have gone to seed. So no,
Speaker 2: thank you, I'm just I'm not going to bet this one, all.
Speaker 1: Right, Pat. Here we go Green Bay Packers at home
Speaker 1: against Chicago. They aren't home though they are three point
Speaker 1: favorites understandably, so the number for this game is forty
Speaker 1: four plus one. Forty on the Chicago side. And that's
Speaker 1: where you seem to be living these days. So let's
Speaker 1: expand a little bit more on your take on this game.
Speaker 2: Yeah, literally living on the Chicago side here in enemy territory.
Speaker 2: So the Bears have won for their last five show
Speaker 2: and they slapped around the Falcons last week in a
Speaker 2: big way. Their nice little month long run also includes
Speaker 2: victories over the other two teams in the NFC North,
Speaker 2: the Lions and the Vikings, and as well as the
Speaker 2: Packers played against the Vikings on New Year's Eve, and
Speaker 2: you know, the Vikings quarterback problems finally gave the Packers
Speaker 2: an offense that could make them look good because the
Speaker 2: Packers have really struggled on DEFENSI of late, you know,
Speaker 2: allowing almost four hundred passing yards to Baker Mayfield, then
Speaker 2: over three hundred passing yards to Bryce Young. I am
Speaker 2: worried about what might Justin Fields might be able to
Speaker 2: do to the Packers, and the Chicago defense has been
Speaker 2: terrific lately. So I hate to say it, but I
Speaker 2: do see value in the Bears at plus three, and
Speaker 2: you know, for personal reasons, rather than take the field goal,
Speaker 2: I've got it on the money line. I've got the
Speaker 2: Bears at plus one forty eight. That way, I'm either
Speaker 2: happy about the Packers winning and making the playoffs or
Speaker 2: I win some money.
Speaker 1: Okay, I think that's a very healthy thing to do here,
Speaker 1: Pat Sam, your confidence is now going to be tested.
Speaker 1: Both these teams coming off wins in Week seventeen, pretty
Speaker 1: decisive ones too. So where do you stand with the
Speaker 1: lines when it comes to Packers and Bears?
Speaker 3: Give me the Packers and the points. I know Jordan
Speaker 3: Love had a bad game against the Giants a couple
Speaker 3: of weeks ago, but he's played phenomenally over the last
Speaker 3: half of the season. He has five games with a
Speaker 3: PFF grade in the seventy fifth percentile in his last
Speaker 3: nine games. He's really clicking with these receivers. Obviously, Jordan
Speaker 3: Reid potentially being out would be a huge hit because
Speaker 3: he seems like they're most dynamic player on offense right now.
Speaker 3: But the depth, while again the level of receiver that
Speaker 3: the Packers have is not necessarily at the top tier,
Speaker 3: but I think the depth that they have and that
Speaker 3: all of these guys can step up has been a
Speaker 3: true testament to how they've grown over the second half
Speaker 3: of the season. So, you know, imagine thinking that the
Speaker 3: Chicago Bears are going to come into Lambeau in Week
Speaker 3: eighteen with a future Hall of Fame quarterback and are
Speaker 3: going to win the game, Like, come on, give me
Speaker 3: the Packers go pack up.
Speaker 4: There's no hedging for Sam.
Speaker 2: So you know, Sam, if the Packers lose this, I'm
Speaker 2: gonna have to drive down to the city to buy
Speaker 2: you a beer with my winnings apparently, so you can drive.
Speaker 1: Your Well that's a very nice thing of you to
Speaker 1: do there, Pat. I'll say this, My favorite thing is
Speaker 1: to take the Packers on the money line and combine
Speaker 1: that with anytime touchdown for Jaden Reed just a tough guy.
Speaker 1: He scores every single week. I know he's got another injury.
Speaker 1: I think he'll play through because this is a very
Speaker 1: important game here. You win, you get in So Reed
Speaker 1: has been money seven touchdowns and seven games. I mean
Speaker 1: put those two things together, you're probably getting the plus money.
Speaker 1: That's the way I attached this one right here and
Speaker 1: gonna attack it all right. Next one here, the Philadelphia Eagles.
Speaker 1: Rough times for the Philadelphia Eagles lately, gentlemen, They're gonna
Speaker 1: go to New York to take on the New York Giants.
Speaker 1: The Giants are five point underdogs at home, as they
Speaker 1: theoretically should be. Forty one is the number plus one
Speaker 1: ninety five on the money line for the Giants. Now, Sam,
Speaker 1: I don't know about you, but Taylor putting up twenty
Speaker 1: fantasy points last week, Taylor throwing the football, Taylor rushing
Speaker 1: a little bit. Giants would have a great wide receiver corp.
Speaker 1: But I don't if it matters right now. This Eagles
Speaker 1: defense just seems to be falling apart of the seams.
Speaker 1: I like the Giants and the points on this side.
Speaker 1: I'm not saying the Giants went outright, but I'm taking
Speaker 1: the points. What are you doing with this one?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't have a leaning on the side to
Speaker 3: your point, like, the Eagles secondary is still a mess
Speaker 3: in then they just got gashed on the ground by
Speaker 3: the Cardinals and racked up over two hundred rushing yards
Speaker 3: against them. Again, the Eagles have been playing extremely well
Speaker 3: in terms of rushing defense this year, but I think
Speaker 3: the way I want to attack this is some of
Speaker 3: the player props with the Giants wide receivers. I know
Speaker 3: we don't talk about player props much on this show,
Speaker 3: but just looking at again the way to attack the Eagles,
Speaker 3: I think wide receivers are targeted at the highest rate
Speaker 3: against the Eagles, So that's the way I'm looking. You know,
Speaker 3: the Giants got a little bit lucky with the punt
Speaker 3: turn touchdown against the Rams this past week, So if
Speaker 3: it's Tyrod Taylor, I'm certainly more bullish on the Giants
Speaker 3: than if it's Tommy DeVito or someone else.
Speaker 1: All Right, your thoughts, Pat Fitzmorris on this contest here,
Speaker 1: I tell you I'm on the Giant side of this
Speaker 1: when the Eagles are not making me feel real good.
Speaker 2: Yeah, maybe I'm walking into a snare trap, Joe, but
Speaker 2: I've already bet the Eagles here, okay, and they I mean,
Speaker 2: no question, they are staggering. They have lost for their
Speaker 2: last five and their only win during that stretch was
Speaker 2: against these Giants, but they only won by eight and
Speaker 2: didn't cover in that game. So I just feel like
Speaker 2: this Eagles team still has a great deal of talent,
Speaker 2: even though the recent results have not reflected that. There's
Speaker 2: no way they should have lost to a team like
Speaker 2: the Cardinals at this late date in the season with
Speaker 2: so much on the line. Hopefully that loss fires up
Speaker 2: this team, and I think Nick Siriani is going to
Speaker 2: want to build some momentum going into the playoffs. So
Speaker 2: I'm gonna lay the points and take the Eagles.
Speaker 1: Yeah, if you look back here, not that long ago too.
Speaker 1: I mean, you've got a scenario where you know, they
Speaker 1: played the Eagles a couple of weeks ago and the
Speaker 1: Eagles won thirty three to twenty five. You know, I
Speaker 1: always hate when teams play each other twice in a
Speaker 1: short period of time too. That's never typically a good thing.
Speaker 1: Usually it's very close there, all right, Next one here
Speaker 1: on the Slaves, we continue to roll through the Rams
Speaker 1: and forty nine ers. The forty nine ers have put
Speaker 1: themselves on a good spot here, but the Rams, Mike goodness,
Speaker 1: if they come on hot of late. The number for
Speaker 1: this game is forty two and a half if you
Speaker 1: like the Rams and the money lines plus one fifty
Speaker 1: minus three and a half here for the San Francisco
Speaker 1: forty nine Ers. Pat your thoughts on this one. Obviously,
Speaker 1: yesterday last week, I should say they handled their business,
Speaker 1: but the Christian McCaffrey injury certainly something to keep a
Speaker 1: close eye on.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the forty nine Ers are locked into the number
Speaker 2: one seed. The Rams are locked into a playoff spot,
Speaker 2: and the only motivation for them is trying to get
Speaker 2: the sixth seed rather than the seventh seed. I don't
Speaker 2: know that that is that much motivation. I'm sitting this
Speaker 2: one out, Sam.
Speaker 1: Do you think that this is a measuring stick game
Speaker 1: for the Rams? Even if the forty nine ers are
Speaker 1: sitting people where, you know, they start to say, hey, look,
Speaker 1: we are good enough to compete here, let's go in there.
Speaker 1: It kind of, you know, harken back to you know,
Speaker 1: back in the day where the New York Giants took
Speaker 1: on and lost that perfect season against the New England Patriots,
Speaker 1: but they realized that they could hang with the big boys,
Speaker 1: and it was a big confidence builder for them. Is
Speaker 1: that the kind of game we could be looking at
Speaker 1: here for the Rams?
Speaker 3: I don't necessarily think so. I mean, they took the
Speaker 3: Ravens toe to toe and lost in overtime just a
Speaker 3: couple of weeks ago, and the Ravens, some might consider
Speaker 3: are are the best team in the NFL. And I
Speaker 3: think again, especially if San Francisco's players, I would expect
Speaker 3: they they do in this game because when they all
Speaker 3: of their key starters have been healthy this year, they
Speaker 3: have been an absolute wagon. And so I don't think
Speaker 3: they want to risk players like Trent Williams, like Rock Purty,
Speaker 3: Debo and all those other guys getting hurt because health
Speaker 3: is the number one thing for them. So I like
Speaker 3: the Rams on the money line here. Again, the one
Speaker 3: point went over the Giants is not all that inspiring.
Speaker 3: It was probably Matthew Stafford's worst game in quite some time.
Speaker 3: But I think again the sixteed versus seven seed probably
Speaker 3: doesn't sound huge, but it could be the difference in
Speaker 3: them to play San Francisco in the divisional round if
Speaker 3: whoever ends up being the seven seed wins their game.
Speaker 3: So I think they they have all the more motivation
Speaker 3: than San Francisco does. And again, Matthew Stafford could be again,
Speaker 3: if not for Lamar Jackson, could be in the MVP
Speaker 3: consideration as well.
Speaker 1: All Right, Denver at eight and eight to Las Vegas
Speaker 1: at seven and nine. How Denver is eight and eight,
Speaker 1: I'll never know. I don't understand how that's possible. In fact,
Speaker 1: I sometimes they have to rub my eyes just to
Speaker 1: make sure that I'm actually seeing that correctly. But Vegas
Speaker 1: is at home. They're two and a half point favorites.
Speaker 1: Thirty eight is the number plus one twenty on the
Speaker 1: Denver money line. Now, look, Vegas, you know, can't really
Speaker 1: do anything here. But at the same time, I think
Speaker 1: this is Antonio Pierce trying to continue to make statements
Speaker 1: that he deserves to have this job. So I think
Speaker 1: they're going to get full effort out of this team.
Speaker 1: That's why I like the Raiders side of this game.
Speaker 1: I don't have a lot of faith in the Denver Broncos.
Speaker 1: I know they eked out a win last week. I
Speaker 1: don't care. I think this is the perfect trap where
Speaker 1: people are gonna say, oh, look, Denver eked out or win,
Speaker 1: they have something to potentially No, I'm gonna go with
Speaker 1: the Raiders here, just putting an end to the Denver
Speaker 1: Bronco season. Your thoughts, Sam, do you agree or disagree
Speaker 1: with that notion?
Speaker 3: I agree. I this is probably my strongest conviction play
Speaker 3: of the week is the Las Vegas Raiders minus two
Speaker 3: and a half. The Las Vegas defense continues to play
Speaker 3: really well under Antonio.
Speaker 1: Peers.
Speaker 3: The now third in early down EPA per play this season.
Speaker 3: Their rush defense is first in EPA per play allowed
Speaker 3: over the last four weeks, despite Las Vegas using the
Speaker 3: second highest rate of light boxes on defense. I used
Speaker 3: to think that, you know, having a defensive guy at
Speaker 3: coach is not the right way to go about building
Speaker 3: a team, But in my opinion, Antonio Pierce has earned
Speaker 3: that job. Again, if you're going to have a defensive
Speaker 3: coach as your head coach, at least have someone who
Speaker 3: can be a culture builder. And I think he's done
Speaker 3: that in Las Vegas. I think he's earned the job.
Speaker 3: I think trying to find someone outside of the organization
Speaker 3: is going to be a tough task, especially, you know,
Speaker 3: with some of their best players on defense right now,
Speaker 3: especially Max Crosby. So I love the Raiders. I love
Speaker 3: what Antonio Pierce is doing. I think a huge credit
Speaker 3: to him getting this team to where they are right now.
Speaker 1: Pat, we're both on the Raiders. Are you coming with us? Man?
Speaker 2: I think I might have to piggyback you guys. As
Speaker 2: convinced as you are. I had a slight leaning toward
Speaker 2: the Raiders, but have not bet this one early, and
Speaker 2: you guys are selling me like I do. Think the
Speaker 2: Raiders defense is vastly underrated, and that's actually part of
Speaker 2: the reason why the play I like more in this
Speaker 2: game is the under. I think this is going under
Speaker 2: thirty eight. I mean, we've got Jared Stidham against Aidan
Speaker 2: O'Connell in this game and that underrated Raiders defense, So
Speaker 2: you know, you can absolutely interest me in the under here.
Speaker 2: And by the way, Joe, the Broncos season, what an
Speaker 2: interesting Bell Curve season. They've just terrible out of the gates,
Speaker 2: then actually pretty good for a while at mid season,
Speaker 2: and then terrible again to end things.
Speaker 4: So it's been an early usual season.
Speaker 1: It's so funny they're eliminated from the playoffs at eight
Speaker 1: and eight, and this does is a matter of pride,
Speaker 1: like you get that, you know, that winning season with
Speaker 1: that last w and then Sean Payton can say, hey,
Speaker 1: I went in there, I won, I cleaned up the mess.
Speaker 1: Here we're gonna move on from Russell Wilson. This was
Speaker 1: my year of evaluating and like the end of season
Speaker 1: nine to eight, taking over a team that was such
Speaker 1: a huge mess last year, I think is an accomplishment.
Speaker 1: I just don't think he's gonna get there. I think
Speaker 1: Vegas at the end of the day is gonna you know,
Speaker 1: they're both gonna be eight to nine teams when the
Speaker 1: dust settles on a week eighteen. That's just kind of
Speaker 1: where I see them. The Kansaity Chiefs, Boy boy, the Chiefs.
Speaker 1: They finally got a victory there. They're gonna take on
Speaker 1: the Chargers this week. Now. The Chargers are two point
Speaker 1: favorites at home because there's really not too much here
Speaker 1: to play for for the Kansady Chiefs. Thirty six is
Speaker 1: the number for this one plus one ten, So Pat,
Speaker 1: you know, I guess there's two arguments here. You know.
Speaker 1: Is it smart for the Chiefs to kind of just
Speaker 1: sit back and regroup and rest their weary heads a
Speaker 1: little bit, or should they be going out there and
Speaker 1: trying to figure out what's going on and go beat
Speaker 1: up on a bad Chargers team and have some confidence
Speaker 1: going into the playoffs.
Speaker 2: You could make a case for that, Joe, But I
Speaker 2: actually think, like against the Bengals, we saw that offense
Speaker 2: function probably better than it has at any other point
Speaker 2: last month and a half. So maybe they just rest
Speaker 2: on their laurels, and I think you got to rest
Speaker 2: the franchise at this point and not take any risks,
Speaker 2: because if you lose Patrick Mahomes, that's it. Your season
Speaker 2: is over. So I really doubt we see him there.
Speaker 4: But you know, just no real.
Speaker 2: Incentive for the Chiefs being locked into that third seed.
Speaker 2: But do I trust the East and stick led Chargers
Speaker 2: to beat that you? I do not, especially with I mean,
Speaker 2: they could not generate anything in the passing game last
Speaker 2: week with no Keenan Allen, no Josh Palmer. I don't
Speaker 2: see what the incentive is to bring Keenan Allen back.
Speaker 4: No the veteran. Yeah, so I just I'm not interested
Speaker 4: in playing this game at all.
Speaker 1: That's fair enough. Sam. Are you out on this one too? No?
Speaker 3: I like the Chiefs money line here again for some
Speaker 3: of the reasons Pat mentioned, Just that the Charters offense
Speaker 3: has been abysmal. I think the Chiefs, with even some
Speaker 3: of their backups on defense, will be able to lock
Speaker 3: this one up again. And Andy Reid is still a
Speaker 3: good play caller. I think whoever backs up I don't
Speaker 3: even know who backs up Patrick Mahomes at this point,
Speaker 3: but there's no reason to start Patrick Mahomes in this game.
Speaker 3: As long as he's healthy, he gives the Chiefs a
Speaker 3: chance to win, and winning a meaningless Week eighteen game
Speaker 3: is not nearly as important as winning in the wild
Speaker 3: card round.
Speaker 2: I think we're getting blame Gabbart, aren't web.
Speaker 1: That seems to be the case. Dallas at Washington, Dallas
Speaker 1: is thirteen point favorites of this one. Forty four and
Speaker 1: a half is the number plus five point fifty Sam.
Speaker 1: It's a big number on the road. We talked about
Speaker 1: the big number on the road last week in Washington.
Speaker 1: So it feels like we're right back where we started
Speaker 1: from in Week seventeen. Your thoughts on this one here?
Speaker 1: That was seventeen points where they were behind, and of
Speaker 1: course the last minute we thought we were going to
Speaker 1: get Jacoby Brissett all the way up until Sunday and
Speaker 1: that was not the case.
Speaker 3: Give me the Cowboys and the points. I mean that
Speaker 3: the Commanders kept it close against the forty nine ers
Speaker 3: this past week up until halftime, and then it was
Speaker 3: just the forty nine Ers are like, Okay, we need
Speaker 3: to put this out of reach, and they did so
Speaker 3: with ease. Again, I think with this game and potentially
Speaker 3: you know some of the other games too, with these
Speaker 3: you know games of how much again are they going
Speaker 3: to start their starter or play their starters? All that
Speaker 3: sort of stuff is to keep an eye, you know,
Speaker 3: do some scoreboard watching yourself, and look, if the Eagles
Speaker 3: are trailing, I mean, look, you know, possibly place a
Speaker 3: bet on the Commanders to cover because the Cowboys might
Speaker 3: sit they're starters for you know, the last quarter or
Speaker 3: something like that. So that's it. Give me the Cowboys at.
Speaker 1: The points, all right, Pat too many points for you
Speaker 1: or you like the Cowboys as well?
Speaker 4: Oh man?
Speaker 2: I mean the Cowboys need this one. They're the far
Speaker 2: superior team. The Commanders have lost seven straight. Sam Howell
Speaker 2: has been kind of a train wreck over the last
Speaker 2: month after playing pretty well for much of the season.
Speaker 2: I'm leaning Cowboys, but I haven't bet it yet. This
Speaker 2: is it's just in that zone where I do not
Speaker 2: like laying this many points in NFL games. It's just,
Speaker 2: you know, and maybe the Commanders do have that thing
Speaker 2: where they want to go out on a good note
Speaker 2: and play really hard one last time and try to
Speaker 2: mess with a division rival. So I may yet bet
Speaker 2: the Cowboys, but I haven't done it yet, and I'm
Speaker 2: not sure whether I'll be able to pull the trigger
Speaker 2: or not.
Speaker 1: All right, last one here is a fun one. The
Speaker 1: Night Game A twenty. You get Miami eleven to five
Speaker 1: hosting Buffalo ten to six, winning the AFC East. That's
Speaker 1: what's on the line here between these two teams. Now
Speaker 1: you do have Buffalo getting another way to get into
Speaker 1: They can clinch a playoff berth if they tie, if
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh loses, if Jacksonville loses, or if Houston and Indianapolis
Speaker 1: ends in a tie. So this is kind of like
Speaker 1: you know that last ditch here. Can you win the division?
Speaker 1: Can you lock it all up? Pat? Who do you
Speaker 1: like in this contest? Because we're looking at the lines
Speaker 1: here right now, it's three on the side of Buffalo.
Speaker 1: They are the favorites in this one? Is they I
Speaker 1: think should be? I actually think this is right. Miami
Speaker 1: get their doors blowing off by Baltimore last week. That
Speaker 1: sets them rilliing a little bit. They've had some injuries
Speaker 1: on defense too lately. That's hurt. Fifty is the number
Speaker 1: for this one. It's a very high total plus one
Speaker 1: forty for Miami at home and the money line, Pat
Speaker 1: your thoughts.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think at first blush people are going to
Speaker 2: see this and want to maybe take Miami as a
Speaker 2: home dog. And it does sound as if Mike McDaniel
Speaker 2: expects too a tongue of I looa to lay through
Speaker 2: the shoulder injury he sustained against the Ravens, but Bradley
Speaker 2: Chubb towards ACL in that game, Xavin Howard is going
Speaker 2: to be out with a foot injury. That's a lot
Speaker 2: of defensive firepower the Dolphins are going to be missing here,
Speaker 2: even though that defense has been playing really well, or
Speaker 2: at least it was until it ran up against the Ravens.
Speaker 2: So also, we have seen the Bills consistently get up
Speaker 2: for games against top notch opponents this season, like they
Speaker 2: have done it all year, and they've thrown their best
Speaker 2: punch in most of those games, whereas the Dolphins.
Speaker 4: Not so much.
Speaker 2: We have seen them consistently shrink from the challenge of
Speaker 2: playing the best teams in the league. So I think
Speaker 2: this line is right. Like you, Joe, it does feel
Speaker 2: like it's probably set where it should be. I'm not
Speaker 2: gonna bet this game. I just would warn people against
Speaker 2: like seeing the Dolphins getting points at home and being
Speaker 2: quick to jump on that one.
Speaker 4: I'm not anxious to do that.
Speaker 1: All right, Sam, are you anxious to bet at other
Speaker 1: side of this game?
Speaker 3: I don't know that I am, uh, you know kind
Speaker 3: of with with Pat here that having to lay three
Speaker 3: points in an away game is again. I know the
Speaker 3: Dolphins have struggled a little bit the last couple of weeks,
Speaker 3: but they still have some firepower on offense, and obviously
Speaker 3: Jalen Wattle being banged up as well, who will see
Speaker 3: if he goes. It's it's just such a funny scenario
Speaker 3: because the Bills, I believe, had the second best odds
Speaker 3: in the AFC to win the Super Bowl, and if
Speaker 3: they lose this game, they could be out of the
Speaker 3: playoffs completely. Like there there's well that's.
Speaker 1: The thing, right standone game, so you're gonna know if
Speaker 1: you're Buffalo kind of if Tampa loses this, it's not Tampa.
Speaker 1: Excuse me. If if you had Jacksonville lose, you have
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh lose, you haveah a couple of things happen already,
Speaker 1: you kind of know your your fate. So then it
Speaker 1: becomes the pride of the division. How much that matters?
Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, but the two seed versus the sixth
Speaker 3: seed is also a massive sure too. Like you, you're
Speaker 3: getting one, possibly two home games if if you win,
Speaker 3: instead of having to go on the road to point again.
Speaker 3: I mean, they might have to go on on the
Speaker 3: road to the Dolphins then again and again coming off
Speaker 3: of a loss, or or going up on the road
Speaker 3: to the Chiefs. So I knew they just beat recently,
Speaker 3: but that game could have gone either way too. So
Speaker 3: I think Buffalo, regardless of the outcome of those the
Speaker 3: Steelers and the Jacksonville games, they're gonna be up for
Speaker 3: it and are gonna want to win. There's I mean,
Speaker 3: they're not gonna rest any starters by any means. But
Speaker 3: I think the key here is how much the Bills
Speaker 3: passed the ball, because since Joe Brady took over, they
Speaker 3: have gone one game with a positive pass right over expectation,
Speaker 3: and that was against the Chiefs. And the way to
Speaker 3: attack this Bill's defense, or excuse me, this Dolphins defense,
Speaker 3: especially with the injuries that you guys mentioned, is through
Speaker 3: the air. I mean, we saw what Lamar Jackson just
Speaker 3: did to the Dolphins this pass last week. So I
Speaker 3: don't really know understand why they're not passing the ball
Speaker 3: so much. I mean they haven't really had to a ton,
Speaker 3: but they've dropped back on just over fifty percent of
Speaker 3: their plays the last four weeks, which is dead last
Speaker 3: in the league over that span. So if they let
Speaker 3: Josh Allen loose, then I feel more confident about the
Speaker 3: Bills taking in this one.
Speaker 1: All right, Stay on top of all the lines with
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Speaker 1: This is that time of year. We got so many
Speaker 1: sports going on. It's an incredible group of systems here
Speaker 1: that we have over at Betting Pros. The app is
Speaker 1: just tremendous and it's a great way to stay on
Speaker 1: top of all these lines as they move to with
Speaker 1: the line alerts so you can set the game notifications
Speaker 1: so you know, because you know, we all know there's
Speaker 1: gonna be a lot of line movement this week with
Speaker 1: all the news of who's in, who's out, who's gonna play,
Speaker 1: who's not, So it's gonna be one of the trickier
Speaker 1: weeks in the NFL, but that's what we're here for.
Speaker 1: That's what we're here to support you. They'll be more
Speaker 1: coverage later in the week, of course, on Thursday and
Speaker 1: Friday for the NFL side, But in the meantime that'll
Speaker 1: do it for us, but the story of the game
Speaker 1: goes on for Sam and Pat. I'm Joey P. We'll
Speaker 1: see you next time. Kids.
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