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Speaker 1: Good luck for the most beautiful game?

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Speaker 2: Do us proud read a lot? They're up for running

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Speaker 2: a game so smooth, so sweet.

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Speaker 3: Spid mid sixteen, just glorious execution.

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Speaker 4: God, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort, four

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Speaker 4: thousand percent.

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Speaker 3: Of the time.

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Speaker 5: How shut with that?

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Speaker 1: Shop with find of buddy, and that's why you see

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Speaker 1: you as beautiful tis look at his movements, the.

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Speaker 5: Most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 2: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 5: God shut up again.

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Speaker 1: The all it's left to of the wide eyed drill confused?

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Speaker 2: How Old Earth picked up happens?

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Speaker 1: Hello everybody, and welcome to Wondergul, the soccer betting podcast

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Speaker 1: from the Action Network. I am your host today, BJ Cunningham.

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Speaker 1: I'll be joined by my host and friend, Anthony Dumundo.

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Speaker 1: In just a second, Michael Leeboff is out making sure

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Speaker 1: the Islanders make the playoffs.

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Speaker 2: He'll be back in the chair on Sunday night as

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Speaker 2: the host.

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Speaker 1: But first I need to tell you that wonder Goal

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Speaker 1: is presented by BET three sixty five, the world's favorite

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Speaker 1: sportsbook brand.

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Speaker 2: Sign Up with promo code.

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Speaker 1: Action to get BET three six fives exclusive sign up

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Speaker 1: offer in New Jersey, Colorado and Ohio bet one down.

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Speaker 1: Any game get two hundred in bonus bets. All right,

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Speaker 1: we have a full Premier League slate and we'll also

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Speaker 1: take a little gent around Europe as well. We always

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Speaker 1: try to figure out what match we want to talk

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Speaker 1: about first. Sometimes we go chronological order. We'd like maybe

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Speaker 1: talk about one of the bigger matches throughout the weekend.

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Speaker 1: Anthony chose this one first. I wouldn't have chosen it.

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Speaker 1: I don't think it's really the biggest match of the weekend.

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Speaker 1: West Ham hosting Arsenal to London Derby. West Ham is

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Speaker 1: a five to one home underdog, Arsenal sitting at a

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Speaker 1: minus one eighty two road favorite, with the draw sitting

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Speaker 1: at plus three to twenty. Anthony's gonna abounce tell you

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Speaker 1: how Arsenal's not fine, and how City's in the driver's seat,

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Speaker 1: and how City is going to win the tie, which

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Speaker 1: is just not true. Right now, Arsenal had one bad

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Speaker 1: defensive performance and now we are going to crucify them

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Speaker 1: and say that so many things are wrong with mclartet

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Speaker 1: to side. Yes, they did have a bad performance in

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Speaker 1: the second half against Liverpool, but the match against City

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Speaker 1: is still coming up and that is huge, and you know,

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Speaker 1: we'll go through the schedule at a later time to

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Speaker 1: figure out who's in more danger. But in general, with

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Speaker 1: this match listen, if I was a neutral, I would

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Speaker 1: tell you the west Ham plus one has a ton

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Speaker 1: of value right now because I only project Arsenal minus

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Speaker 1: one or two.

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Speaker 2: But I'm not going to do that because I don't bet.

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Speaker 1: Against my gunners when they're in the title race.

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Speaker 2: But I'll kick it over to you, Anthony.

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Speaker 1: You can go in your little diet tribe about how

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Speaker 1: Arsenal's broken, the season's over, they're not gonna win the title,

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Speaker 1: and that west Ham's going to win this match.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm not going to be that extreme.

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Speaker 4: But but Arsenal defensive regression I've talked about and been

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Speaker 4: banging the drum forever and said they're not as good

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Speaker 4: as their numbers suggest. That they had one of the

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Speaker 4: worst defensive performances you'll see all season in the draw

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Speaker 4: with Liverpool. Credit to Aaron Ramsdale for keeping the minute,

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Speaker 4: credit to most Sala for being shit and missing his penalty.

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Speaker 4: But I mean the same problems exist here for Arsenal.

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Speaker 5: Now.

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Speaker 4: Arteta said on April seventh that maybe Saliva.

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Speaker 5: Would be able to train.

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Speaker 4: I have not seen any report that suggests he's his

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Speaker 4: training at the moment, and so I'm gonna assume that

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Speaker 4: he remains out for this match, and even if he does,

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Speaker 4: may be limited. But it makes a huge difference for Arsenal.

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Speaker 4: Saliva's ball winning, his ability to win ground duels was

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Speaker 4: elite in the first half of the season. Yes, he

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Speaker 4: gave away some dumb penalties and had a couple of mistakes,

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Speaker 4: but all in all was a vital part of their

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Speaker 4: transition defense. And he just hasn't been there, and so

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Speaker 4: they've not at him or Tomasu, So you know, white

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Speaker 4: holding is not nearly as good I think of a

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Speaker 4: pairing in terms of plying out from the back under

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Speaker 4: pressure and whatnot. Arsenal dominated this match at home, but

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Speaker 4: think about how much the mark it has changed on

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Speaker 4: these two teams. They played right after the World Cup break.

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Speaker 4: Arsenal was minus one eighty at home. I thought that

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Speaker 4: was relatively close to a fair line. I think I

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Speaker 4: ended up betting the under and lost, but I don't

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Speaker 4: really think all that much has changed my perception of

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Speaker 4: either team. I mean, west Ham has had their fair

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Speaker 4: share of struggles, but they continue to be relatively good defensively.

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Speaker 4: Danny Ying's you know, betting in a little bit has

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Speaker 4: helped solve a little bit of the attacking issue, Like

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Speaker 4: there's still not ever going to be a good attacking

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Speaker 4: team with this group of forwards, but they've at least

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Speaker 4: been competent in the last few matches, scoring you know,

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Speaker 4: one or two goals sixteen shots last week, so it

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Speaker 4: hasn't all been terrible. I think that the market is

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Speaker 4: just way too drunk on Arsenal here because it was

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Speaker 4: minus one fifty earlier in the week and I was like,

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Speaker 4: I don't really want to take the three quarters. I

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Speaker 4: projected around minus one forty for Arsenal, so I was like, okay,

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Speaker 4: I can probably pass here, but now that it's gotten

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Speaker 4: steamed all the way up to minus one eighty and

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Speaker 4: I can get the full goal at home on West

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Speaker 4: Ham I just don't think Arsenal is a goal better

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Speaker 4: on the road than an average mid table Premier League team,

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Speaker 4: and so I'm going to bet the Hammers. I think

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Speaker 4: we may be And this is just based on where

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Speaker 4: I've looked across other markets and other leagues this weekend,

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Speaker 4: based on how I project lines and based on where

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Speaker 4: I'm seeing some of these numbers, we may finally be

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Speaker 4: getting for the first time of the season the must

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Speaker 4: win tax, because that is that is seemingly evident to me,

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Speaker 4: given you know we're gonna top about disligue later, but

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Speaker 4: given where I see Bayern and Dortmound lined, and given

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Speaker 4: you know City and City is inflated almost all the time,

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Speaker 4: but I think we may finally.

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Speaker 2: Be seeing that.

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Speaker 4: And west Ham's stout defense should be enough here to

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Speaker 4: make this a very competitive match, and so I'll take

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Speaker 4: the goal.

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Speaker 1: I do have to mention to people, though, that Arsenal

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Speaker 1: does have the rest advantage. West Ham's traveling to Belgium

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Speaker 1: for a Conference league tie with Gentz on Thursday, So

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Speaker 1: if you're looking for any positives out there for Arsenal,

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Speaker 1: that's that. But let's move on to two of the

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Speaker 1: hottest teams in the Premier League right now. Who is

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Speaker 1: going to open up on Sunday at seven thirty am

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Speaker 1: Eastern time, aston Villa hosting Newcastle. Aston Villa's plus two

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Speaker 1: sixty Newcastle is a plus one oh five road favorite,

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Speaker 1: with the draw sitting a plus two forty. This is

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Speaker 1: I think a fascinating match from a lot of different

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Speaker 1: angles because of how hot Aston Villa has run recently,

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Speaker 1: how Newcastle still are now seemingly in the driver's seat

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Speaker 1: for the third place spots. But I think the price

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Speaker 1: on Newcastle still has gotten a little bit short. I

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Speaker 1: don't know if we're at a point now where it's

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Speaker 1: hammer time against Aston Villa. How do you see this

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Speaker 1: one going, Anthony, Well, this is.

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Speaker 4: This is crucial for my potential big best non Big

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Speaker 4: six team that if we win this, we're within striking

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Speaker 4: distance of Newcastle and have a real chance to chase

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Speaker 4: them down in the second you know, the last six

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Speaker 4: matches the season. These are two teams that I am

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Speaker 4: actually both you know, lower on than the current market rating.

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Speaker 4: I think Newcastle as a road favorite still has similar

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Speaker 4: issues in struggling to break teams down. We've seen Villa's

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Speaker 4: defense take steps forward in the last few weeks under Uniamory,

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Speaker 4: which we probably should have seen coming given his track

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Speaker 4: record after they were just diabolical defensively or in the

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Speaker 4: early parts of his tenure. Newcastle is the clearly better team.

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Speaker 4: The thing about it for me is, and this is

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Speaker 4: kind of how the market has progressed.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 4: So Newcastle has happened to play west Ham, Brentford and

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Speaker 4: Villa on the road in the last two weeks pretty much.

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Speaker 4: You know, I think Villa's still you know, right around

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Speaker 4: the second they're worse than Brentford, and right they are

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Speaker 4: all relatively comparable teams. And so once Newcastle got to

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Speaker 4: minus one ten against Brentford, I took the bes plus

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Speaker 4: a half.

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Speaker 5: I would need something.

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Speaker 4: Like that to bet Villa here, and I don't think

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Speaker 4: I'm going to get it, and I still have Villa rated,

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Speaker 4: so I'm gonna probably end up passing here. I could

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Speaker 4: see a case for the under, but it is juiced

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Speaker 4: up to minus one twenty five one thirty on two

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Speaker 4: and a half, and my number comes in right around

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Speaker 4: two point four.

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Speaker 5: So I'm not really inclined about this.

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Speaker 1: I actually do like the over here, Anthony, and I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna tell you why. And I think it's something that

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Speaker 1: we've seen with Aston Villa from time to time. I mean, listen,

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Speaker 1: the schedule has kind of favored them out right. They

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Speaker 1: went through that really, really bad stretch where they got

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Speaker 1: pummeled by City. They ended up on the final score line.

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Speaker 1: You know, they hung with Arsenal, but you know, let's

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Speaker 1: be honest, Arsenal dominated that match and then even the

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Speaker 1: magic against Chelsea, which I think is very important in this.

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Speaker 1: You know, obviously they won that match to nothing, but

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Speaker 1: they really really struggled from playing out the back, and

184
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Speaker 1: as we talked about many times, the Uni Amoris insistent

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Speaker 1: on them playing out from the back. In that match

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Speaker 1: against Chelsea, Chelsea had a passes per defensive action of

187
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Speaker 1: four point six, a thirty percent counterpress success rate and

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Speaker 1: then for seven high turnovers. Again, both Arsenal and City

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Speaker 1: had a passive per defense protection below eights and both

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Speaker 1: forced four high turnovers each and that match as well.

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Speaker 1: The reason that's important is because Newcastle is the top

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Speaker 1: five pressing team in the Premier League their fourth and

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Speaker 1: pass per defense backtion fifth and high turnovers. You know,

194
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Speaker 1: the previous match, although he was under a different manager,

195
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Speaker 1: the best manager in the world, Stephen Gerrard, Newcastle gave

196
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Speaker 1: aston Villa so many problems with their pressing as well

197
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Speaker 1: and created close played a little over three and a

198
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Speaker 1: half expected goals and won the match for nothing. And

199
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Speaker 1: just you know, obviously aston Villa is running really hot. Well,

200
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Speaker 1: Newcastle is absolutely on fire offensively. Since the two no

201
00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:28,040
Speaker 1: lost of a City, they've ripped off five straight wins,

202
00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:31,160
Speaker 1: created twelve point five expected goals in those matches, and

203
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Speaker 1: the reason for that is because Alexander Eshak is playing

204
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Speaker 1: regularly in the starting eleven and he's just an incredible striker.

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Speaker 1: He's got eight goals and nine matches already. And listen

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Speaker 1: the aston Villa defense. They run incredibly hot. And in

207
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Speaker 1: Uniami's you know, seven matches when they've had to face

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Speaker 1: the top half of the table, they've allowed thirteen point

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Speaker 1: one expected goals. They've had good defense performances against both

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Speaker 1: Nottingham Forest and it gets lester. But this is a

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Speaker 1: completely different animal. So I actually project two point seven goals,

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Speaker 1: So I like too over two and a half. If

213
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Speaker 1: you can get it at plus money, you're better.

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Speaker 2: All right.

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Speaker 1: Let's move on to a match involving one of the

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Speaker 1: relegation teams, Everton hosting Fulham at Goodison Park. Everton is

217
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Speaker 1: a plus one oh five home favorite. Newcastle is sitting

218
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Speaker 1: up plus two eighty, with the draw sitting up plus

219
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Speaker 1: two forty. I really like Everton in the spot. I

220
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Speaker 1: think it was it's a good spot for Everton, but

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Speaker 1: the price just is not there for me. There's just

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Speaker 1: no way I can lay plus one oh five on

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Speaker 1: the road with Everton. But I think there's another way

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Speaker 1: to play them. But I'll kick it over to you first.

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Speaker 1: How do you see this match playing out?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it'd be Everton or nothing for me as well.

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Speaker 4: I like the angle you're the two team total. I

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Speaker 4: like that angle more so probably than the money line

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Speaker 4: as well. We've talked about Everton being more of an

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Speaker 4: up tempo, up up event, higher event team under Sean Diych,

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Speaker 4: and that I mean absolutely held you. Last week at

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Speaker 4: Man United, they played a very high line. Yep, it

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Speaker 4: was a very bold attempt. The press was a little

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Speaker 4: off and thus United created well over two and a

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Speaker 4: half expected goals.

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Speaker 5: Should have won that going.

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Speaker 4: Away, But that wasn't to discredit Everton, who showed some

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Speaker 4: real attacking life themselves.

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Speaker 5: Even though they didn't quite end up scoring in the match.

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Speaker 4: They were very competitive offensively and created you know, over

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Speaker 4: one expected goal and had real opportunities to get back

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Speaker 4: into that match fifteen total shots.

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Speaker 5: Like it was a.

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Speaker 4: Very different match than the one I'm expecting here, because

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Speaker 4: I do think Fulham will be a much more conservative

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Speaker 4: Fulham than we're used to seeing, and Everton in that role,

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Speaker 4: we haven't seen it a ton. There just aren't a

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Speaker 4: ton of home favorite spots for Everton where they're expected

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Speaker 4: to have more of the ball and break down an opponent,

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Speaker 4: and it is a different kind of challenge.

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Speaker 5: I mean, if you look at the recent.

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Speaker 4: Games, Nottingham Forest is probably the best example of a

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Speaker 4: situation where they were on the ball more than their

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Speaker 4: opponent and kind of in that driver's seat kind of role,

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Speaker 4: and they, you know, were fine going forward. So you know,

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Speaker 4: maybe it's not the end of the world, but Fulham

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Speaker 4: without Mitrovich another pretty shaky attacking performance, failed to score.

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Speaker 4: We're seeing the attacking regression for Fulham in the last

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Speaker 4: few weeks here where they've they've scored, they've failed to

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Speaker 4: produce at least one expected goal in five of their

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Speaker 4: last six matches. So you're seeing that, You're seeing the

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Speaker 4: losses starting to pile up. But like you said, the

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Speaker 4: numbers not quite there for me on Everton to bet it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And so yeah, you mentioned I like Everton's team

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Speaker 1: total over one and a half at plus one ten

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Speaker 1: and the reason being is because I was showing value

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Speaker 1: on the over before accounting for the loss of Mitrovich,

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Speaker 1: which as I mentioned in the last podcast, is very drastic.

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Speaker 1: You know, they're at about a point eight act shep

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Speaker 1: for ninety without him. With him, they're at one point

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Speaker 1: three to five. I think it's important to note though,

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Speaker 1: for Everton that since Jan Diytch has taken over they've

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Speaker 1: played a difficult schedule. Six of the ten matches under

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Speaker 1: his managerial ship have been against Big Six opponents. The

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Speaker 1: other four came against Villa Leeds, not Eam, Forrest and Brentford,

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Speaker 1: and in those four matches they did create five point

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Speaker 1: seven expected goals. So, like you mentioned, and you've already mentioned,

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Speaker 1: it's much more high event, it's much more pressing, high

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Speaker 1: trying to win the ball higher up the pitch, disrupting

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Speaker 1: build up play. Under Lampard, Everton's passed for defensive action

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Speaker 1: was fifteen point three. Under Sean Deitsch it's twelve point two.

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Speaker 1: So you can already see them trying to win the

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Speaker 1: ball higher and getting going forward in transition and that's

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Speaker 1: probably where this match is going to be played quite

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Speaker 1: a bit. But again I can't get on both sides

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Speaker 1: over two and a half without Mitrovich for Fulham. And

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Speaker 1: this is just honestly a bet against the Fulham defense

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Speaker 1: that just continues to completely crater and fall off a cliff.

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Speaker 1: Last four matches against Brentford, Arsenal, Bournemouth and west Ham,

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Speaker 1: they've conceded nine point two expected goals and six big

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Speaker 1: scoring chances.

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Speaker 2: So I like.

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Speaker 1: Everton's team total over one and a half here I

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Speaker 1: project Everton at one point seven to two goals, so

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Speaker 1: showing some decent value there. So Everton team total over

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Speaker 1: one and a half at plus one ten for me.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, if they got to plus one thirty twenty five,

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Speaker 4: I would bet them.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I would not agree plus one ten.

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Speaker 2: I agree.

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Speaker 1: I have Everton at like plus one oh two. So

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Speaker 1: I'm basically dead on with what the mark is. All right,

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Speaker 1: let's move on to honest maybe I think the most

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Speaker 1: exciting match of the weekend Chelsea hosting Brighton. Chelsea is

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Speaker 1: only a plus one sixty two home favorite Brighton sitting

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Speaker 1: at plus one seventy with the.

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Speaker 2: Draw at plus two forty.

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Speaker 1: This is the exact same thing as last weekend where

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Speaker 1: I saw the draw, I saw Chelsea versus Brighton, I

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Speaker 1: got really excited because I thought I was gonna get Brighton,

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Speaker 1: John All Better, a decent number, but nope, the market

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Speaker 1: says Brighton's better than Chelsea. So we're pricing this at

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Speaker 1: a straight pick them at Stanford Bridge. So I am passing.

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Speaker 1: But you like the old.

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Speaker 4: Inquit, I like the over. Yeah, I mean, I don't

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Speaker 4: want to go into this anymore. I'm really tired of

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Speaker 4: talking about Chelsea. All I've done for the last month

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Speaker 4: is lose money on these frauds.

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Speaker 5: Actually that'sund entirely true.

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Speaker 4: In the last two weeks, all I've done is lose

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Speaker 4: money on these frauds between you know, the real Madrid

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Speaker 4: and no show today, the Wolves, no show on Saturday,

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Speaker 4: the Liverpool incredible performance that they never finished any chances.

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Speaker 4: We were catching some overs prior to that. So look,

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Speaker 4: this comes down to Brighton's style of play and how

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Speaker 4: much the able to impose their will on people. Because

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Speaker 4: we've seen Tottenham this year play a lot of Doug

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Speaker 4: Clunker kind of dead games, even against decent opposition. You know,

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Speaker 4: like the Chelsea match comes to mind, as won the

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Speaker 4: west Ham match. Recently, we've seen Tottenham be a good

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Speaker 4: defensive team that has kind of struggled.

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Speaker 5: To generate chances.

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Speaker 4: I would say that's, you know, been the biggest issue

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Speaker 4: for Spurs has been the attack and not necessarily the defense.

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Speaker 4: When you compare relatively speaking of there's still a top

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Speaker 4: six defense next year allowed they're close to like tenth,

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Speaker 4: So you would have thought, okay, well, you know, Tottenham's home,

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Speaker 4: they be able to dictate tempo, and that was not

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Speaker 4: the case. Brighton just turned it up to a twelve

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Speaker 4: and really cause a ton of problems for Spurs and

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Speaker 4: more the much better side and really should have won

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Speaker 4: the match if you go through the chances again, created

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Speaker 4: over one.

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Speaker 5: And a half expected goals in the match.

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Speaker 4: So I was incredibly encouraged by the performance at Spurs

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Speaker 4: and I think it's going to be a similar type

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Speaker 4: of game. You saw what Chelsea can be in transition.

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Speaker 4: I know they didn't finish any of the chances, but

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Speaker 4: even the first twenty to thirty minutes of the game

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Speaker 4: against Real Madrid, Chelsea were able to spring players in

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Speaker 4: behind repeatedly, and I think they'll be able to do

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Speaker 4: something of that nature against this Brighton pressure. And they

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Speaker 4: have the pressing from the front to turn over opponents

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Speaker 4: enough that I trust them to get goals.

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Speaker 1: Here.

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Speaker 4: I shouldn't say I trust them because I really don't anymore.

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Speaker 4: But yes, we ended up being seven carries and fifteen

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Speaker 4: passes into the Tottenham penalty area last week for Brighton,

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Speaker 4: which it is hard to do against Spurs.

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Speaker 1: Before we move on, I have a question for you

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Speaker 1: I think is interesting. Where do you have Brighton Powell

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Speaker 1: ranked in terms of the Premier League table?

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Speaker 4: So I have them fifth, but it's basically a tie

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Speaker 4: with Newcastle, and I have like Chelsea and man United

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Speaker 4: or right there, United slightly above Chelsea, so it's basically fifth.

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Speaker 1: Because here's my point is, like I think Brighton is

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Speaker 1: the fourth best team in the Premier League and if

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Speaker 1: you look at expected goals, they are pretty decent margin

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Speaker 1: between them and Liverpool. Now it's about five goal difference

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Speaker 1: right there, you know. And the thing is is when

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Speaker 1: you go through all these big six clubs, like they

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Speaker 1: can make excuse after excuse after excuse for teams like

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Speaker 1: Tottenham like who have lost Conte, who have had injuries,

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Speaker 1: or from a team like Manchester United who had a

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Speaker 1: really horrible start to the season and.

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Speaker 2: Then turned it on.

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Speaker 1: Brighton lost their manager in the middle of the season,

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Speaker 1: they had to make a managerial change, and they just

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Speaker 1: continually are pummeling Big six sides. They've done it to

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Speaker 1: Liverpool twice, they just did it to Tottenham. They're gonna

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Speaker 1: have a couple of chances here coming up against both Arsenal,

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00:17:26,440 --> 00:17:29,080
Speaker 1: against both against City as well. They're not going to

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Speaker 1: get to the top four. And unfortunately, how this works

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Speaker 1: and this has worked, this out happens, and in terms

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Speaker 1: of the Premier League is they're probably gonna lose deserve,

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Speaker 1: They're probably gonna lose a lot of these different players.

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Speaker 1: Actually thought about this the other day. Grand Potter is

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Speaker 1: probably gonna be manager Brighton next year. I mean, that's

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Speaker 1: probably gonna He's probably gonna come back after deserby leaves

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Speaker 1: for Tottenham or Chelsea or whatever it is. But it's

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Speaker 1: really really unfortunate that of what happened to Brighton last

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Speaker 1: weekend against Tottenham and what happened to them against Fulham

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Speaker 1: that basically sunk their top four chances, because I truly

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Speaker 1: believe this is the fourth best team and they are

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Speaker 1: so their matches are the most exciting of anybody in

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Speaker 1: the Premier League right now. I mean, it is just

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Speaker 1: Deservey is just ball to the wall. Like you said that,

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Speaker 1: you get turned up to twelve every single match. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's unfortunate the market is telling you right now that

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Speaker 1: Brighton is a better team than Chelsea if they're pricing

401
00:18:17,280 --> 00:18:19,040
Speaker 1: them out of pick them at Stanford Bridge.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, it's I.

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Speaker 5: Mean there's a certain point.

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Speaker 4: It's not even analytics, it's it's okay, goal difference therefore.

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Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, there they are, and they're they're incredible

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Speaker 1: to watch week in and week out. It's I mean,

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Speaker 1: we've been championing the Brighton flag for for I don't

408
00:18:36,600 --> 00:18:39,960
Speaker 1: know what three four years ago. The show has existed

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Speaker 1: ever since me and Anthony started working together. We've just

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Speaker 1: been saying Brighton, Brighton, Brighton over again. It's finally come

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Speaker 1: to fruition. But yeah, it's uh, it's really just incredible

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Speaker 1: to watch what a team of great ownership structure that

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Speaker 1: they really really trusting looks. I saw that Brighton spends

414
00:18:56,280 --> 00:18:59,720
Speaker 1: I think three million pounds a year on just straight data,

415
00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:01,920
Speaker 1: so they can you know, find these diamonds in the

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Speaker 1: roughs like Metoma or McAllister Isato or the guys like that,

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00:19:06,040 --> 00:19:08,040
Speaker 1: which is you know, just so beautiful to see for

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Speaker 1: two of us who love analytics.

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Speaker 2: But I digress. Let's move on.

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Speaker 1: You guys don't want to hear us just continually mush about,

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00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:17,680
Speaker 1: right and over and over. Let's move on to a

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Speaker 1: relegation six pointers, Southampton taking on the.

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Speaker 2: Best team in the world.

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Speaker 1: Roy Hodgson's Crystal Palace. Southampton is a plus one eighty

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00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:29,720
Speaker 1: home underdog palace, sitting at plus one seventy with a

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00:19:29,800 --> 00:19:33,280
Speaker 1: draw at plus two ten. I think the market's gotten

427
00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:37,120
Speaker 1: at hot here on Palace after a couple of great performances,

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Speaker 1: and they were great performances under Hodgson, and this is

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Speaker 1: something that I was looking back on.

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Speaker 2: I was like, wait, how did I not see this coming?

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Speaker 3: Is that?

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Speaker 1: Yes, Hodgson when he was in charge of Crystal Palace,

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Speaker 1: it was you know, four four two over performance. You know,

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Speaker 1: you dubbed it Hodgson Ball, where they just you know,

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00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:55,439
Speaker 1: luck box all these different wins. When he was managing

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00:19:55,520 --> 00:19:57,600
Speaker 1: Watford last season and he was trying to get them

437
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Speaker 1: out of the relegation fight, he was playing incredibly high

438
00:20:01,359 --> 00:20:04,280
Speaker 1: event type matches and was really just going balls to

439
00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:06,760
Speaker 1: the wall. So I'm kind of kicking myself for not

440
00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:09,480
Speaker 1: seeing this type of you know not you know, this

441
00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:12,080
Speaker 1: type of offensive performance coming. But the overs are you know,

442
00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:14,960
Speaker 1: these high event style matches. So again, I don't know

443
00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:18,359
Speaker 1: if this is the spot to continually back Palace. I

444
00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:21,000
Speaker 1: wouldn't blame anybody if they did, because Southampton looks dead

445
00:20:21,080 --> 00:20:21,359
Speaker 1: right now.

446
00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:23,400
Speaker 2: But I'll be passing. Do you have anything for this match?

447
00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:24,080
Speaker 3: Yeah?

448
00:20:24,119 --> 00:20:25,919
Speaker 5: I mean I still will put up.

449
00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:28,960
Speaker 4: The biggest thing that happened to Crystal Palace is that

450
00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:31,280
Speaker 4: they stopped playing all the good teams and started playing

451
00:20:31,280 --> 00:20:35,400
Speaker 4: all the shitty ones. Instead of playing Man United, Brighton, Brentford, Liverpool,

452
00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:38,640
Speaker 4: Villa City, Brighton Arsenal, you got to play Lester and Leeds,

453
00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:40,920
Speaker 4: who are two of the four worst defense five worst

454
00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:43,800
Speaker 4: defenses in the league. And yes, obviously the new manager

455
00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:46,560
Speaker 4: coming here at the perfect time to spark it makes

456
00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:49,680
Speaker 4: a difference for sure. And Hodgin is a genius for

457
00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:51,879
Speaker 4: coming in at the perfect time to face the easiest

458
00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:54,120
Speaker 4: schedule in the history of the prem and that continues

459
00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:56,119
Speaker 4: to speak out with their away trip to Southampton. I

460
00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:59,600
Speaker 4: mean it's exactly, it's a genius move. He's going to

461
00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:02,359
Speaker 4: save them from relegation. I mean, they're they're actually not

462
00:21:02,520 --> 00:21:04,880
Speaker 4: really live for the top ten, but they're not out

463
00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:08,320
Speaker 4: of it now because of because of just how easy

464
00:21:08,359 --> 00:21:09,800
Speaker 4: the schedule is. I mean, if they beat up on

465
00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:12,200
Speaker 4: these relegation level teams, they're going to be you know,

466
00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:14,800
Speaker 4: they're within six points of Fulham.

467
00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:17,960
Speaker 2: I would not and then they get out of the realm.

468
00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:20,720
Speaker 4: Then they go every time and the remaining schedule is Southampton,

469
00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:25,439
Speaker 4: Everton Wolves, west Ham Spurs, Bournemouth, Fulham Forest. Oh it's crazy,

470
00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:27,359
Speaker 4: and like, yeah, those teams are all going to be desperate,

471
00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:29,960
Speaker 4: but I see myself betting Palace a lot because what's

472
00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:32,320
Speaker 4: gonna happen. I mean, they're gonna play, especially at the

473
00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:34,399
Speaker 4: end of the season. If Bournemouth and Forest are in

474
00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:38,560
Speaker 4: those relegation battles and they're going on the road to Palace,

475
00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:41,560
Speaker 4: they're going to be juiced favorite over overwhelmingly. And I'm

476
00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:44,200
Speaker 4: probably gonna bet the Eagles at home. But you know,

477
00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:47,040
Speaker 4: in this matchup, I you could sell me on another over,

478
00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:48,479
Speaker 4: but I'll probably end up passing here.

479
00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:51,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I just realized, you know, I had basically written

480
00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:54,560
Speaker 1: off this ticket for dead. But my Palace over forty

481
00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:57,080
Speaker 1: six and a half points is is not dead by

482
00:21:57,320 --> 00:22:00,480
Speaker 1: any means. Right now. They just need to win former

483
00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:04,320
Speaker 1: matches and get one draw out of these remaining matches man, and.

484
00:22:06,040 --> 00:22:06,840
Speaker 5: Definitely behind.

485
00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:10,360
Speaker 4: But you're not dead that playing I thought it was dead,

486
00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:12,720
Speaker 4: but fifty two point pace for the rest of the season.

487
00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:14,760
Speaker 4: But like it said, the schedule, man, it does not

488
00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:16,800
Speaker 4: get any easier than that, and they've already played all

489
00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:18,840
Speaker 4: the good teams, even the Tottenham match like their hardest

490
00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:19,560
Speaker 4: match on the schedule.

491
00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:21,959
Speaker 5: Yeahs, I mean they are going to be more than

492
00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:23,320
Speaker 5: minus one sixty in that match.

493
00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:27,640
Speaker 1: If they win this weekend, there'll be eleven points off

494
00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:30,480
Speaker 1: from hitting that over with Everton, Wolves, west Ham like

495
00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:33,160
Speaker 1: you mentioned Tottenham, Bournemouth, Fulham and Nottingham Forth. Just needing

496
00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:37,600
Speaker 1: three wins and a draw out out of that is

497
00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:39,520
Speaker 1: is beautiful or too draws.

498
00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:41,920
Speaker 4: We also shouldn't forget this is still a limited attacking

499
00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:42,440
Speaker 4: team though.

500
00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:44,920
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, it's very Yeah, this is like it's the

501
00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:47,560
Speaker 1: same players. Like it's not like, you know, Edward is

502
00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:49,520
Speaker 1: now suddenly the best striking in the ROYLD at least

503
00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:52,840
Speaker 1: a is like you know, uh, vintage Geniesta, Like no,

504
00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:56,080
Speaker 1: like these are still the same players. So but yeah,

505
00:22:56,160 --> 00:23:01,199
Speaker 1: now let's move on to your team Tottenham hosting Bournemouth

506
00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:05,280
Speaker 1: at Whiteheart Lane. Tottenham is a minus two to twenty

507
00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:08,000
Speaker 1: three home favorite born myth sitting at plus six fifty,

508
00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:11,080
Speaker 1: with the draw at plus three point fifty. I think

509
00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:13,560
Speaker 1: if you've listened to this podcast for the last few weeks,

510
00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:15,080
Speaker 1: I think you know where this conversation is going. But

511
00:23:15,119 --> 00:23:20,600
Speaker 1: I'll let you digress about your Tottenham hotspurs here against Bournemouth.

512
00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:23,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, I actually have surprisingly little value in this match.

513
00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:25,280
Speaker 4: I thought I was going to be betting Bournemouth and

514
00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:27,760
Speaker 4: I ended up coming out with them right around minus

515
00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:30,320
Speaker 4: one eighty. I'm just still very low on this Bournemuth team.

516
00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:32,880
Speaker 4: You know, we had that run of betting their team

517
00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:33,600
Speaker 4: total overs.

518
00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:34,240
Speaker 3: That was fun.

519
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:35,720
Speaker 5: We made some good money on that.

520
00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:37,920
Speaker 4: I thought the market was wrong and you could still

521
00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:40,560
Speaker 4: probably sell me on a team total over here against Tottenham.

522
00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:43,760
Speaker 4: But unless this gets to a straight one and a half,

523
00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:46,440
Speaker 4: I will not be getting involved here. I just think

524
00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:50,439
Speaker 4: that the market is pretty properly priced Tottenham. For as

525
00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:54,840
Speaker 4: much as they have their attacking struggles like Bournemouth, defense

526
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:58,480
Speaker 4: is one of the more ideal matchups for them in

527
00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:02,240
Speaker 4: terms of just lacking talent and so you know, We've

528
00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:05,840
Speaker 4: still seen Tottenham show the capability of putting up good

529
00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:08,240
Speaker 4: attacking performances when they played the absolute worst of the

530
00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:11,199
Speaker 4: worst defenses in this league, you know, two point three

531
00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:15,520
Speaker 4: against Southampton and against Forrest they were pretty good too

532
00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:19,280
Speaker 4: going forward over to XG there too. So I'm not

533
00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:23,160
Speaker 4: gonna just auto fade Spurs, but there are a couple

534
00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:25,639
Speaker 4: of spots I have circled coming up in future weeks.

535
00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:28,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm actually going to sell you on a team's

536
00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:33,399
Speaker 1: total over Bournemouth over to score at minus one forty five.

537
00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:35,680
Speaker 1: I mean, I think we need to have a conversation

538
00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:39,760
Speaker 1: about their offense because they are cooking right now. Since

539
00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:44,800
Speaker 1: January twenty first, Bournemouth has created sixteen point one expected

540
00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:47,600
Speaker 1: goals and eleven matches. That's the seventh most in the

541
00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:48,560
Speaker 1: Premier leage during that time.

542
00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:49,600
Speaker 2: For this is the offense.

543
00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:51,760
Speaker 1: If you remember at the beginning of the season, we

544
00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:54,159
Speaker 1: were wondering when they were actually going to score, Like,

545
00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:57,200
Speaker 1: they went through a big time stretch where they created

546
00:24:57,359 --> 00:25:01,040
Speaker 1: next to nothing for a ten match stretch and then

547
00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:04,200
Speaker 1: they ran like gods right before the World Cup. Now

548
00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:06,600
Speaker 1: I'm looking at this offense, I'm like, Wow, this offense

549
00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:08,840
Speaker 1: is breaking down some of the best teams in the

550
00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:12,040
Speaker 1: Premier League like they've like they've played City, like they've

551
00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:14,960
Speaker 1: played at Liverpool, They've they've played some of the bigger

552
00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:17,879
Speaker 1: teams in the Premier League, and they're still creating a

553
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:20,840
Speaker 1: big scoring chance for Arsenal scoring in you know, nine

554
00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:23,680
Speaker 1: seconds against them, So why can't they do it against

555
00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:25,480
Speaker 1: top You know, I understand the price is a little

556
00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:27,560
Speaker 1: bit high at minus one forty five, I would not

557
00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:31,840
Speaker 1: go anywhere above minus one fifty. But I mean, given

558
00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:35,400
Speaker 1: Tottenham's style of play, and you know, this is something

559
00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:37,720
Speaker 1: I've been talking about with not necessarily Bournemouth, but with

560
00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 1: teams who like to play these very counter direct, counter

561
00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:43,640
Speaker 1: attack heavy styles when they go up against each other.

562
00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:45,959
Speaker 1: It doesn't necessarily mean that it's going to be an

563
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:49,040
Speaker 1: under What actually ends up happening is becomes very very

564
00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:52,680
Speaker 1: end to end style of match. Because you know, Bournemouth,

565
00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:55,280
Speaker 1: I've said up before, I think they're the Renford junior

566
00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:57,040
Speaker 1: of a team that can just create one or two

567
00:25:57,240 --> 00:25:59,240
Speaker 1: really big scoring chances.

568
00:25:59,320 --> 00:25:59,919
Speaker 2: At the other end.

569
00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:01,560
Speaker 1: And they're also you know, a top five stet piece

570
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:04,000
Speaker 1: team as well. Toddham did just concede a stet piece

571
00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:06,760
Speaker 1: to Brighton last weekend, so I'll be on Bourne.

572
00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:08,120
Speaker 2: With the team total over.

573
00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:12,399
Speaker 1: A half minus one forty five wouldn't go above minus

574
00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:15,280
Speaker 1: one fifty. But I mean this attack is underperformed too,

575
00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:17,680
Speaker 1: Like those sixteen point one expected goals and eleven matches,

576
00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:19,919
Speaker 1: they've only scored ten of them. So like this offense

577
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:22,359
Speaker 1: is still due for positive aggression, So I'll be on

578
00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 1: them to score.

579
00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:24,119
Speaker 3: All right.

580
00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:31,200
Speaker 1: Let's move on to Wolves hosting Brentford at MOLINEU. Wolves

581
00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:33,479
Speaker 1: is sitting at plus one fifty five, Brentford sitting at

582
00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 1: two to one, with the draw sitting at plus two ten.

583
00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:38,359
Speaker 1: I love Brentford here, but I'll let you get your

584
00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:39,080
Speaker 1: thoughts in first.

585
00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:41,200
Speaker 4: I mean, my numbers show a little bit of value

586
00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:43,320
Speaker 4: on Brentford, but they do just about every week, and

587
00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:45,960
Speaker 4: this is one spot where I'm just not that interested

588
00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:49,359
Speaker 4: in backing them as a road pick them against a

589
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:51,760
Speaker 4: mediocre but not terrible Wolves side.

590
00:26:52,359 --> 00:26:54,280
Speaker 5: So this is just the easiest pass on the board

591
00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:54,520
Speaker 5: for me.

592
00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:58,040
Speaker 1: See, I like Brentford because I think the sets up

593
00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:00,760
Speaker 1: well for their style of play, because you know what

594
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:02,440
Speaker 1: we talk about with Wolves a lot is you know,

595
00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:04,480
Speaker 1: the obviously take a ton of shots and outside the box.

596
00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:06,399
Speaker 1: You know, they're dead last and big scoring chances. But

597
00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:10,480
Speaker 1: Wolves is actually one of the slowest build up teams

598
00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:14,600
Speaker 1: from the back. They lead the Premier League in touches

599
00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:17,840
Speaker 1: in their own penalty box and final third.

600
00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:20,119
Speaker 2: Like, they are incredible at holding.

601
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:22,560
Speaker 1: Possession in their own final third, but once we get

602
00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:26,200
Speaker 1: it into the opponent's final third and you know, rarely

603
00:27:26,280 --> 00:27:30,240
Speaker 1: the opponent's penalty box, it just becomes a nightmare for

604
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:32,119
Speaker 1: them to actually create high quality chances.

605
00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:35,200
Speaker 2: And listen, I mean this is this is low bitaggy.

606
00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:36,600
Speaker 1: To a t. He wants to get the ball out wide,

607
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:39,040
Speaker 1: he wants to slow build up and then swinging crosses.

608
00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:42,960
Speaker 1: You know. Brentford, you know, they do allow a higher

609
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:45,000
Speaker 1: end of crosses than most Premier leade teams, but they

610
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:46,840
Speaker 1: are one of the best teams in aerial duels one so,

611
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:49,440
Speaker 1: and they're also very good at defending set pieces. So

612
00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:54,080
Speaker 1: even if Wolves, you know, holds sixty percent possession, I

613
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:56,920
Speaker 1: don't think they're going to create anything against this Brentford

614
00:27:57,000 --> 00:27:59,600
Speaker 1: low block and Brentford, you know, And the thing about

615
00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:01,359
Speaker 1: it is is like with low patag and getting the

616
00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:03,360
Speaker 1: ball out wide, like Brentford will play five at the back,

617
00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:05,680
Speaker 1: so like they can defend in that those wide areas

618
00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:08,879
Speaker 1: and not allow Wolves to have numerical advantages there. And

619
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 1: really what this comes down to as well is that Brentford,

620
00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:15,600
Speaker 1: let's be honest, like they've been the beneficiarya of quite

621
00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:18,240
Speaker 1: a few penalties this season, but they still have a

622
00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:21,320
Speaker 1: plus point two non penalty expectacle differential for the season.

623
00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:24,040
Speaker 1: Wolves is sitting at minus fourteen point two, So Brentford

624
00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:26,720
Speaker 1: has been that much better than Wolves on the season,

625
00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:28,359
Speaker 1: and it splits between home and away haven't been that

626
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:31,000
Speaker 1: drastic for Brentford either, So I like the Bees drawn

627
00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:33,080
Speaker 1: no bad at plus one ten, I do project them

628
00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 1: as a slight, ever so slight road favorite here. Alrighty,

629
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:41,600
Speaker 1: let's move on to headliner on Saturday at twelve thirty

630
00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:47,040
Speaker 1: pm Eastern Time, Manchester City the eventual Premier League champions.

631
00:28:47,120 --> 00:28:52,360
Speaker 1: Manchester City hosting Leicester at the at the head coming

632
00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:55,840
Speaker 1: off that three to zero win over Bayern Munich, man

633
00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:58,960
Speaker 1: City is sitting at minus six hundred. Lester's a twelve

634
00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:01,560
Speaker 1: to one road favorite, with the draw sitting up plus

635
00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:02,280
Speaker 1: seven fifty.

636
00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 2: I actually do have a very boring one of my

637
00:29:04,560 --> 00:29:05,760
Speaker 2: favorite bets for this match.

638
00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:07,840
Speaker 1: But other than that, I think it's it's an absolute

639
00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:10,880
Speaker 1: snooze fest or just a city rob what do you think?

640
00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:13,760
Speaker 4: What I think of the lesser attack is extremely tied

641
00:29:13,800 --> 00:29:15,960
Speaker 4: to who they start up top and who they prioritize

642
00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:19,000
Speaker 4: their forwards to be, and so you know, until we

643
00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:20,880
Speaker 4: kind of have better read on that, I don't really

644
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:22,400
Speaker 4: have a ton of interest here. What I will say

645
00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:25,120
Speaker 4: is that City is absolutely inflated. And this is what

646
00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:28,360
Speaker 4: I mentioned earlier about the title you know must win narrative.

647
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:31,360
Speaker 4: You know, it's still a good time to add more

648
00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:33,400
Speaker 4: to your city win the title position, as I say

649
00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:36,000
Speaker 4: every week, because they are going to do it, and

650
00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:38,920
Speaker 4: the gap between them and Arsenal in my power ratings

651
00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:42,320
Speaker 4: has grown quite a bit actually in the last two weeks,

652
00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:47,440
Speaker 4: just based on City thrashing Lipsig thrashing Byron and then

653
00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:50,760
Speaker 4: Arsenal looking a little shaky against Liverpool.

654
00:29:51,520 --> 00:29:54,440
Speaker 5: So I don't have a ton of here. I don't

655
00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:55,720
Speaker 5: really want to bet Lester though, Like.

656
00:29:55,760 --> 00:29:58,920
Speaker 4: There will be spots where I say team is inflated,

657
00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 4: but I'm not betting the dog, and this is one

658
00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:01,720
Speaker 4: of those spots.

659
00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:05,520
Speaker 1: I like both teams to score no at minus one thirty,

660
00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:07,160
Speaker 1: one of my favorite bets I used to make with

661
00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:09,200
Speaker 1: City for a long time until I got way too

662
00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:12,280
Speaker 1: aggressive and teams started being able to score on them

663
00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:13,160
Speaker 1: on counter attacks.

664
00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 2: But I mean, since City conceded one.

665
00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:20,000
Speaker 1: Point one expected goals to Bournemouth on February twenty fifth,

666
00:30:20,120 --> 00:30:23,320
Speaker 1: they have just gone back to vintage PEP, you know,

667
00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:27,920
Speaker 1: stranglehold possession controlling matches. Since that match, they'll last six

668
00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:30,520
Speaker 1: matches between the Champions League in the Premier League they've

669
00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:34,760
Speaker 1: only conceded two goals and two point eight expected goals

670
00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:37,960
Speaker 1: and Lester, I mean, they've just been very poor recently,

671
00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:40,040
Speaker 1: like they are just completely falling off cliff And like

672
00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:43,040
Speaker 1: you said, if they're gonna start Jamie Vardy up top continually,

673
00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:44,800
Speaker 1: like yeah, they're not, They're gonna have a lot of

674
00:30:44,840 --> 00:30:49,000
Speaker 1: trouble scoring rather than starting a doco or ianatcho. Last

675
00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:52,440
Speaker 1: three matches they've scored twice, created one point four expected goals.

676
00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:54,400
Speaker 1: They're gonna be without a Harvey Barnes for this match,

677
00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:57,760
Speaker 1: which is he's important for this type of match because

678
00:30:57,800 --> 00:30:59,600
Speaker 1: of their ability to progress the ball up the pitch

679
00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:03,120
Speaker 1: and play through Cities counterpress. Tieloman's looks like he you know,

680
00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:05,280
Speaker 1: is questionable for this if he's not available. That also

681
00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:08,160
Speaker 1: hampers their ball progression trying to get through Cities press.

682
00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:11,440
Speaker 1: And you know, the previous match between these two sides,

683
00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:13,880
Speaker 1: it was a very very sleepy it was. It was

684
00:31:13,960 --> 00:31:17,160
Speaker 1: the early lunchtime kickoff. City won the match one nothing.

685
00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:19,040
Speaker 1: Leser did it off ten shots. But there, I mean,

686
00:31:19,040 --> 00:31:21,200
Speaker 1: they're very similar to Wolves, where they just take a

687
00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:23,200
Speaker 1: ton of shots outside the box and none of them

688
00:31:23,240 --> 00:31:25,240
Speaker 1: are really of quality. So you know, in that match,

689
00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:27,160
Speaker 1: seven of their ten shots came from outside of the box.

690
00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:30,000
Speaker 1: They created point seven expected goals City one to one nothing,

691
00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:32,480
Speaker 1: and that's about how I kind of see this one

692
00:31:32,520 --> 00:31:34,080
Speaker 1: playing out or a City two to nothing win. So

693
00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:36,160
Speaker 1: I have both team to score no projected at minus

694
00:31:36,160 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 1: twenty two, So I like the value minus one thirty.

695
00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:40,719
Speaker 4: I actually think you can and I've had a lot

696
00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:42,560
Speaker 4: of City unders and it's not just because I think

697
00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:44,479
Speaker 4: the attack is overvalued, but I actually think you can

698
00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:46,880
Speaker 4: make a strong case. The defense has been a little

699
00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:50,080
Speaker 4: unlucky this year because they have conceded the second most

700
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:52,240
Speaker 4: goals per shot on target this year in the league,

701
00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:56,920
Speaker 4: despite averaging an average of pretty below average shots distances

702
00:31:57,000 --> 00:32:00,320
Speaker 4: and shot quality by x g per shot, so they're

703
00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:02,440
Speaker 4: not conceding high quality chances, but they're conceding a lot

704
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:05,440
Speaker 4: of goals off shots. Edison hasn't been great and so

705
00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:09,360
Speaker 4: they've almost been a little unlucky in that sense as

706
00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:13,440
Speaker 4: a defense, and so that does give credence to your case,

707
00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:15,200
Speaker 4: is why they're not particularly good.

708
00:32:15,920 --> 00:32:18,760
Speaker 1: I also, you know they have the FA Cup semifinals

709
00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:21,560
Speaker 1: coming up after Bayern Munich as well, and then if

710
00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:24,280
Speaker 1: you want to talk title, it's right here. They go

711
00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:27,760
Speaker 1: to Brighton, they host Arsenal and we will know after

712
00:32:27,880 --> 00:32:29,840
Speaker 1: that whether Arsenal has won the title or not.

713
00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:31,840
Speaker 5: I don't know about that.

714
00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:33,840
Speaker 2: Okay, let's move on.

715
00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:36,520
Speaker 4: If it does end in a draw, I still think

716
00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:37,280
Speaker 4: Citi's live.

717
00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:42,160
Speaker 1: We'll see, all right, Let's move on to Sunday at

718
00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:46,960
Speaker 1: eleven thirty am Eastern time, Nottingham Forest, who is in

719
00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:52,080
Speaker 1: deep trouble right now, hosting Manchester United at the City Ground.

720
00:32:52,640 --> 00:32:57,240
Speaker 1: Nottingham Forest is a plus four fifty home underdog United

721
00:32:57,280 --> 00:32:59,360
Speaker 1: Citty at minus one sixty three with the draw plus

722
00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:02,560
Speaker 1: three hundred. I thought I was gonna slam spot best

723
00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:05,120
Speaker 1: bet Forest here and then I ran my projections and

724
00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:08,640
Speaker 1: I didn't really have a ton of value on them.

725
00:33:08,720 --> 00:33:10,640
Speaker 1: I still have value on them, you know, plus one,

726
00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:13,320
Speaker 1: Like I know you're gonna bet as well, but with

727
00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:16,320
Speaker 1: Casimiro coming back from Manchester United and with how bad

728
00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:18,520
Speaker 1: Forest had played, like, it's just you know, the runner

729
00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 1: results have been bad for Forrest, but I mean the

730
00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:25,040
Speaker 1: underlying results are even worse. So unfortunately, I'm going to

731
00:33:25,080 --> 00:33:28,080
Speaker 1: pass on fading United and wait for a better spot.

732
00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:30,680
Speaker 1: But you do like Forest plus one here at home?

733
00:33:31,200 --> 00:33:31,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, I do.

734
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:34,200
Speaker 4: It doesn't look like Marcus Rashford's gonna play And I

735
00:33:34,240 --> 00:33:35,920
Speaker 4: think this is going to be the real test here

736
00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:40,720
Speaker 4: because yes, Erickson will be back, it looks like, you know,

737
00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:44,160
Speaker 4: he made a return on Saturday, and Casamiro will be back,

738
00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:49,880
Speaker 4: so that will certainly help their midfield and their ability

739
00:33:50,000 --> 00:33:54,960
Speaker 4: to deal with pressure potentially in this matchup. But I

740
00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:59,920
Speaker 4: think there's some problem with this team in terms of

741
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:04,080
Speaker 4: shot production without Rashford, They're just not getting enough from

742
00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:06,200
Speaker 4: the other guys to make up for it, right, And

743
00:34:06,360 --> 00:34:09,319
Speaker 4: so everybody knows how good Marcus Rashford's been this year.

744
00:34:09,680 --> 00:34:12,680
Speaker 4: He's definitely cost me money in the aggregate and he's

745
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:14,919
Speaker 4: put up you know, almost three shots per.

746
00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:17,000
Speaker 5: Ninety right, but here's the difference.

747
00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:21,160
Speaker 4: Technically, the leader in shots per ninety four Man United

748
00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:22,320
Speaker 4: is actually.

749
00:34:22,080 --> 00:34:25,480
Speaker 5: Antony at three point twenty four. But what's the difference.

750
00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:29,440
Speaker 4: His average shot distance is about twenty point four yards,

751
00:34:29,520 --> 00:34:33,960
Speaker 4: which is horrendous outside the box. He's always outside the

752
00:34:34,000 --> 00:34:36,520
Speaker 4: box and he's not getting in them on target I means,

753
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:39,400
Speaker 4: and he's getting point seven point oh seven goals per

754
00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:42,799
Speaker 4: shots back Rashford is nearly triple that. He's run really hot.

755
00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:46,440
Speaker 4: He's only getting three shots per ninety but his distance

756
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:49,239
Speaker 4: on those shots fifteen point four, which if he were

757
00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:51,239
Speaker 4: a team would be the best.

758
00:34:51,160 --> 00:34:51,680
Speaker 3: In the league.

759
00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:55,920
Speaker 4: So he's getting so many good shots and they're just

760
00:34:56,040 --> 00:34:58,440
Speaker 4: not getting that level of production. Like when Marshall has

761
00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:00,920
Speaker 4: been out there, they're getting two shots per No, not

762
00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:05,680
Speaker 4: great from him, he longs to Fernandez, is it too?

763
00:35:06,280 --> 00:35:07,960
Speaker 4: And so my question is I'm laying a goal on

764
00:35:08,000 --> 00:35:10,520
Speaker 4: the road with a defense that has been spotty in

765
00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:14,239
Speaker 4: the last month. Casimiro's back, Do I really trust them enough?

766
00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:16,520
Speaker 4: Because even when Sancho has been out there, Sancho less

767
00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:19,839
Speaker 4: than one shot per ninety Casamiro, you know he's back,

768
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:22,680
Speaker 4: and he has added some Ford punch for this team.

769
00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:24,880
Speaker 4: He gets about a shot a game, but even his

770
00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:26,520
Speaker 4: stuff is all from long range, so I.

771
00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:29,560
Speaker 5: Just don't know where the production comes from to get

772
00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:30,080
Speaker 5: margin here.

773
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:32,919
Speaker 4: And Forrest has been one of the least efficient teams

774
00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:34,879
Speaker 4: in front of goal all season, and I don't think

775
00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:36,560
Speaker 4: it's just like a talent thing, like they just have

776
00:35:36,719 --> 00:35:39,359
Speaker 4: the fewest goals per shot except for Everton. So I'm

777
00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:41,560
Speaker 4: going to roll with the trees at home. We've talked

778
00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:43,239
Speaker 4: about their home and away splits and just how to

779
00:35:43,320 --> 00:35:47,040
Speaker 4: die or they've been away from home at home average.

780
00:35:46,640 --> 00:35:49,320
Speaker 5: Team in the prem YEP and so I'm going to

781
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:49,879
Speaker 5: back them.

782
00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:52,279
Speaker 4: At home here catching a goal against the United side

783
00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:55,600
Speaker 4: that has a minus point four actually difference per ninety

784
00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:58,400
Speaker 4: away from home. So it just feels like given the

785
00:35:58,520 --> 00:36:00,440
Speaker 4: injury to Rashford, I know everybody is going to be

786
00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:03,760
Speaker 4: talking about Casimiro and Erickson being back, but I'm worried

787
00:36:03,760 --> 00:36:06,680
Speaker 4: about this this attack producing a lot, so I'm gonna

788
00:36:06,680 --> 00:36:07,480
Speaker 4: take up the trees.

789
00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:08,919
Speaker 2: I totally agree. I was gonna.

790
00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:11,240
Speaker 1: I was gonna bet the over between them and Sevilla

791
00:36:11,360 --> 00:36:13,600
Speaker 1: and the Europa League, but I had to pass because

792
00:36:13,640 --> 00:36:15,200
Speaker 1: of Rashford being out and I just don't really know

793
00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:18,000
Speaker 1: what the United it's gonna do without them, So great point.

794
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:20,400
Speaker 4: I think they'll be okay against Sevilla. Well we know,

795
00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:25,279
Speaker 4: I mean awful awful, like they still can create chances.

796
00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:27,400
Speaker 4: Don't get me wrong, I have they have players, but

797
00:36:28,080 --> 00:36:29,120
Speaker 4: I think it adds.

798
00:36:28,960 --> 00:36:29,960
Speaker 2: Up beyond run.

799
00:36:30,239 --> 00:36:31,920
Speaker 1: Do you see you they have coming up after the

800
00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:35,040
Speaker 1: two legs with Sevilla. If we don't know if Rashford's

801
00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:38,000
Speaker 1: gonna be healthy by this point or not. But they

802
00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:41,960
Speaker 1: go on Chelsea at home Bright Cup.

803
00:36:42,360 --> 00:36:44,480
Speaker 4: They don't they don't play Chelsea because that's the FA Cup,

804
00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:45,279
Speaker 4: so they'll they.

805
00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:49,439
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, Then they go Brighton f A Cup semi final,

806
00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:52,000
Speaker 1: all time slam spot for Brighton there and then they

807
00:36:52,080 --> 00:36:54,320
Speaker 1: go to Tottenham host Villa and then they go to

808
00:36:54,440 --> 00:36:58,719
Speaker 1: Brighton again. So the top four race is very very

809
00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:02,000
Speaker 1: interesting between I think, you know, I think Brighton's dead

810
00:37:02,080 --> 00:37:05,440
Speaker 1: now after what happened between them and Tottenham last Saturday.

811
00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:08,520
Speaker 2: So the Liverpool, Tottenham and.

812
00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:12,120
Speaker 1: United battle for the top four, I think I think honestly,

813
00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:13,120
Speaker 1: Newcastle is pretty safe.

814
00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:15,719
Speaker 4: Maybe I'll be wrong, but we'll see. What do you

815
00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:17,800
Speaker 4: think the line is, by the way for Brighton and

816
00:37:17,920 --> 00:37:21,399
Speaker 4: Man United, right, I think Brighton has to be favored, right,

817
00:37:22,040 --> 00:37:23,719
Speaker 4: It is a pick them, It is a pick them. Okay,

818
00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:25,359
Speaker 4: So I figured what they would do dead pick them.

819
00:37:26,200 --> 00:37:28,359
Speaker 1: I figured they did. I figured they'd do dead pick them.

820
00:37:29,280 --> 00:37:31,960
Speaker 1: They're not even teams without Rashford, I'll tell you that much.

821
00:37:32,360 --> 00:37:36,120
Speaker 1: Brighton agree, So yeah, I'll definitely betting Brighton there. All right,

822
00:37:36,200 --> 00:37:37,759
Speaker 1: let's close things out here in the Premier Land. We

823
00:37:37,840 --> 00:37:42,760
Speaker 1: have Monday night football and it's a fun one. Leeds

824
00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:47,360
Speaker 1: hosting Liverpool. Coming off that dominant second half performance against Arsenal,

825
00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:50,600
Speaker 1: Leeds is sitting at plus three thirty Liverpool a minus

826
00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:52,400
Speaker 1: one thirty eight road favorite, with the draw sitting at

827
00:37:52,440 --> 00:37:56,120
Speaker 1: plus three twenty. I don't see how this match doesn't

828
00:37:56,200 --> 00:37:58,279
Speaker 1: end with just a billion chances at either end. And

829
00:37:58,320 --> 00:37:59,719
Speaker 1: I don't know if you feel the same way, But

830
00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:02,200
Speaker 1: I love the over here, but I'll let you go first.

831
00:38:02,800 --> 00:38:05,760
Speaker 5: Yeah I mostly do too. I definitely agree.

832
00:38:05,800 --> 00:38:08,640
Speaker 4: I mean it's a little bit high at the three flat,

833
00:38:08,840 --> 00:38:11,000
Speaker 4: Like betting over threes in the prem with like a

834
00:38:11,120 --> 00:38:14,200
Speaker 4: Leeds team just feels just feels like I'm betting into

835
00:38:14,200 --> 00:38:16,200
Speaker 4: an inflated market. But I like leads plus a half

836
00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:19,880
Speaker 4: I think Liverpool's road form has continually been over inflated

837
00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:23,520
Speaker 4: in the market all season long, and playing against that

838
00:38:23,680 --> 00:38:26,720
Speaker 4: narrative again, you just see the difference in the energy

839
00:38:26,760 --> 00:38:29,680
Speaker 4: and the pressing and how they're able to continue to

840
00:38:30,160 --> 00:38:33,880
Speaker 4: recycle the ball and generate consistent shots and pressure. They

841
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:35,799
Speaker 4: just don't do it at the same level when they're

842
00:38:36,480 --> 00:38:39,120
Speaker 4: on the road. And it's been consistent all year even

843
00:38:39,160 --> 00:38:41,800
Speaker 4: if you look at like the Champions League ties against

844
00:38:41,880 --> 00:38:44,200
Speaker 4: Real Madrid, when the first leg, you know, Liverpool was

845
00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:46,839
Speaker 4: really all over them, and the second leg they kind

846
00:38:46,880 --> 00:38:48,279
Speaker 4: of know showed the second half.

847
00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:51,160
Speaker 5: And I mean no better example than this week.

848
00:38:51,200 --> 00:38:54,120
Speaker 4: They were absolutely awful for two string matches on the

849
00:38:54,200 --> 00:38:56,719
Speaker 4: road at City and Chelsea come home beat the shit

850
00:38:56,719 --> 00:38:59,399
Speaker 4: out of Arsenal for seventy minutes and then now they're

851
00:38:59,400 --> 00:39:01,279
Speaker 4: going back on the road again. So I am going

852
00:39:01,360 --> 00:39:05,600
Speaker 4: to take the Peacocks at home in a frenetic back

853
00:39:05,640 --> 00:39:09,160
Speaker 4: and forth kind of game. This was a classic in

854
00:39:09,280 --> 00:39:11,719
Speaker 4: the first matchup, which went to one to Leeds and

855
00:39:11,719 --> 00:39:14,120
Speaker 4: it was a relatively even matchup at Anfield, so they've

856
00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:15,320
Speaker 4: didn't cause some problems.

857
00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:16,840
Speaker 5: Harrison being fit.

858
00:39:16,719 --> 00:39:19,040
Speaker 4: I think is huge for this leads attack yes, they

859
00:39:19,120 --> 00:39:21,440
Speaker 4: still have defensive issues. I think Luis Tiaz is back,

860
00:39:21,480 --> 00:39:25,279
Speaker 4: like Liverpool's finally getting healthy, but still don't trust them

861
00:39:25,320 --> 00:39:26,960
Speaker 4: as a big road favorite here, so I'm going to

862
00:39:27,040 --> 00:39:28,360
Speaker 4: take the Peacocks.

863
00:39:28,840 --> 00:39:30,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I tend to agree.

864
00:39:30,239 --> 00:39:32,359
Speaker 1: I mean, I have Liverpool are like minus one twenty one,

865
00:39:32,600 --> 00:39:35,839
Speaker 1: so slight lead to Leads there, but I like over

866
00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:38,680
Speaker 1: three goals minus one ten. I project three point seven

867
00:39:38,719 --> 00:39:41,799
Speaker 1: goals here. Since Hobby Garcia took over at Leads, we've

868
00:39:41,800 --> 00:39:46,240
Speaker 1: been abysmal defensively. Seven matches in charge, they've conceded fourteen

869
00:39:46,239 --> 00:39:48,840
Speaker 1: point nine expected goals and they hit rock bottom. That

870
00:39:49,080 --> 00:39:52,120
Speaker 1: was rock bottom last weekend against I agree Crystal Palace

871
00:39:52,200 --> 00:39:55,320
Speaker 1: giving up five goals Roy Hodgson's side, and I was

872
00:39:55,320 --> 00:39:57,480
Speaker 1: looking at their pressing numbers tell us you know, if

873
00:39:57,520 --> 00:39:59,719
Speaker 1: you watch Leeds there, they tend to be a little

874
00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:01,719
Speaker 1: bit more passive than they were under Jesse Marsh and

875
00:40:01,760 --> 00:40:03,719
Speaker 1: if you look at their pass per defensive actions ever

876
00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:06,160
Speaker 1: so slightly up from what it was there. But the

877
00:40:06,280 --> 00:40:08,960
Speaker 1: problem is is that Garcia is trying to provide more

878
00:40:09,000 --> 00:40:12,440
Speaker 1: defensive structure and it's just a team that's not constructed

879
00:40:12,520 --> 00:40:16,160
Speaker 1: to play a low blockie counter attacking style or even

880
00:40:16,200 --> 00:40:19,279
Speaker 1: like a passive style. It's a high press, high intensity team.

881
00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:22,040
Speaker 1: And that's the players that they've brought in and signed

882
00:40:22,239 --> 00:40:24,800
Speaker 1: from the last transfer window and the transfermata before that.

883
00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:27,200
Speaker 2: I think Tyler Adams being out is.

884
00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:29,960
Speaker 1: Massive to this leads team. You can just see it

885
00:40:30,120 --> 00:40:32,120
Speaker 1: that McKenny and Roka just don't have the type of

886
00:40:32,160 --> 00:40:35,040
Speaker 1: ball winning and covering that he does. And you know,

887
00:40:35,080 --> 00:40:37,360
Speaker 1: as far as Liverpool, Liverpool's concerned, like, yeah, that was

888
00:40:37,360 --> 00:40:39,840
Speaker 1: an amazing foremance against Arsenal. I mean over four expected

889
00:40:39,880 --> 00:40:42,680
Speaker 1: goals against the second best defense in the Premier League.

890
00:40:42,719 --> 00:40:45,320
Speaker 1: I mean, that's an incredibly impressive performance. And something that

891
00:40:45,400 --> 00:40:48,400
Speaker 1: was interesting is clop started to invert Trent alexand Arnold

892
00:40:48,400 --> 00:40:50,799
Speaker 1: a lot more into the midfield to provide more ball

893
00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:54,280
Speaker 1: progression going forward that they just weren't getting with Fabinhos.

894
00:40:54,320 --> 00:40:56,040
Speaker 1: They were kind of trying to double pivot him as well,

895
00:40:56,600 --> 00:40:57,359
Speaker 1: which did work.

896
00:40:57,920 --> 00:40:59,440
Speaker 2: I don't know for the long term.

897
00:40:59,320 --> 00:41:01,839
Speaker 1: If that's something that's going to be more play more

898
00:41:01,880 --> 00:41:04,520
Speaker 1: with Liverpool, it will help their attack, I think. I

899
00:41:04,560 --> 00:41:07,359
Speaker 1: mean this Liverpool offense, I mean, yeah, they like you mentioned,

900
00:41:07,400 --> 00:41:10,600
Speaker 1: they had bad matches against Chelsea and City, but I

901
00:41:10,680 --> 00:41:13,120
Speaker 1: mean overall for the season they're averaging one point seven

902
00:41:13,160 --> 00:41:15,640
Speaker 1: poor non penalty expectacles predecting like this is still a

903
00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:19,520
Speaker 1: top three offense in the Premier League, and having DS

904
00:41:19,600 --> 00:41:22,800
Speaker 1: healthy is is huge for them, especially attacking in wide areas.

905
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:26,719
Speaker 1: And I think the Liverpool defensive issues are still very

906
00:41:26,840 --> 00:41:28,759
Speaker 1: very real. Like it was a comedy of errors that

907
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:31,719
Speaker 1: led to both Arsenal goals on Sunday. Liverpool has now

908
00:41:31,800 --> 00:41:34,680
Speaker 1: conceded the fifth most big scoring chances in the Premier League.

909
00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:37,239
Speaker 1: You already mentioned it. They can't counterpress the way that

910
00:41:37,280 --> 00:41:40,239
Speaker 1: they used to. It's not a team that's clearly constructed

911
00:41:40,360 --> 00:41:42,560
Speaker 1: to play any other way at an elite level. They

912
00:41:42,560 --> 00:41:45,600
Speaker 1: can play at a good level in terms of different tactics,

913
00:41:45,680 --> 00:41:48,520
Speaker 1: but they're at their best when they're pressing, high, counter pressing,

914
00:41:48,640 --> 00:41:50,680
Speaker 1: controlling possession. They haven't been able to do that so

915
00:41:51,280 --> 00:41:52,560
Speaker 1: and the Leeds offense has been fine.

916
00:41:52,560 --> 00:41:54,200
Speaker 2: They have the attacking talent to do so.

917
00:41:54,560 --> 00:41:58,120
Speaker 1: We've created seven point eight expected goals and Garcia's seven

918
00:41:58,160 --> 00:42:00,480
Speaker 1: matches in charge, so I see this is a very

919
00:42:01,000 --> 00:42:02,680
Speaker 1: end to end style match. I do like Ober three

920
00:42:02,719 --> 00:42:04,279
Speaker 1: goals at minus one ten or if you want to

921
00:42:04,320 --> 00:42:06,640
Speaker 1: do the Dubundo special both team score over two and

922
00:42:06,680 --> 00:42:08,640
Speaker 1: a half. I don't hate that either.

923
00:42:09,000 --> 00:42:10,480
Speaker 5: Yeah, I like that more here because I do see

924
00:42:10,480 --> 00:42:11,279
Speaker 5: this being back and forth.

925
00:42:11,719 --> 00:42:16,640
Speaker 1: Alrighty, let's take a little jant around Europe. But first

926
00:42:17,040 --> 00:42:19,560
Speaker 1: I need to let you know again that wonder goal

927
00:42:19,640 --> 00:42:21,880
Speaker 1: is presented by Bet three sixty five, the world's favorite

928
00:42:21,920 --> 00:42:24,319
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929
00:42:24,320 --> 00:42:27,160
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930
00:42:27,280 --> 00:42:30,200
Speaker 1: Colorado and Ohio. Bet one dollar on any game, get

931
00:42:30,280 --> 00:42:33,399
Speaker 1: two hundred in bonus bets. All right, let's kick things

932
00:42:33,440 --> 00:42:35,080
Speaker 1: off of the Bundesliga. What do you got for us

933
00:42:35,120 --> 00:42:36,240
Speaker 1: here in Germany this weekend?

934
00:42:36,280 --> 00:42:40,040
Speaker 4: Anthony updated my projections on Sunday and the board lit

935
00:42:40,120 --> 00:42:43,520
Speaker 4: up with Hoffenheim and Stuttgart, which immediately tipped me off

936
00:42:43,600 --> 00:42:48,800
Speaker 4: that the market is inflated. On the title Chasers Byron especially,

937
00:42:49,120 --> 00:42:50,759
Speaker 4: the number has come down a little bit here, but

938
00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:52,640
Speaker 4: you can still get two point twenty five. I like

939
00:42:52,719 --> 00:42:55,600
Speaker 4: catching that hook there or the half hook on the

940
00:42:55,680 --> 00:43:00,120
Speaker 4: two with the Asian spread. Hoffenheim continues to be a

941
00:43:00,200 --> 00:43:03,279
Speaker 4: positive regression candidate as well. They've underperformed all year long,

942
00:43:03,640 --> 00:43:05,600
Speaker 4: finally starting to turn the corner. I think you're starting

943
00:43:05,640 --> 00:43:08,160
Speaker 4: to see improve performances and improve results as a result

944
00:43:08,239 --> 00:43:10,920
Speaker 4: of that. They're really not a bottom four or five

945
00:43:10,960 --> 00:43:13,840
Speaker 4: team like the like the market is suggesting here. I

946
00:43:13,880 --> 00:43:16,439
Speaker 4: mean byron lane two in a quarter, you usually only

947
00:43:16,520 --> 00:43:19,719
Speaker 4: see that against you know, your like thirteenth to fifteenth

948
00:43:19,840 --> 00:43:23,080
Speaker 4: ranked teams. Not quite relegation relegation, but right around that.

949
00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:26,120
Speaker 4: And I think Hoffenheim's closer to the eleventh or tenth

950
00:43:26,239 --> 00:43:29,359
Speaker 4: best team here. So like Hoffenheim and Stuttgart at home

951
00:43:29,480 --> 00:43:33,920
Speaker 4: catching a half against dortand Dortmund still in this title race,

952
00:43:34,040 --> 00:43:36,480
Speaker 4: not over at all. But I told everybody last week

953
00:43:36,760 --> 00:43:38,680
Speaker 4: my pet Stutgart every match the rest of the season,

954
00:43:39,400 --> 00:43:40,640
Speaker 4: the cash on the plus one fifty.

955
00:43:40,719 --> 00:43:42,160
Speaker 5: Last week we're going back to the well at home

956
00:43:42,280 --> 00:43:42,879
Speaker 5: catching a half.

957
00:43:43,520 --> 00:43:47,200
Speaker 4: They are an above average Bundesliga team and Dortmund should

958
00:43:47,239 --> 00:43:48,360
Speaker 4: not be laying a half to that.

959
00:43:48,920 --> 00:43:52,279
Speaker 2: So yeah, I agree, yep, I like team.

960
00:43:52,320 --> 00:43:55,560
Speaker 1: I bet last week they actually won their first patch

961
00:43:55,600 --> 00:43:58,359
Speaker 1: and I believe six matches alone, I'm going with them

962
00:43:58,360 --> 00:44:02,160
Speaker 1: again at home Dronto Bett minus won ten against Mines.

963
00:44:02,840 --> 00:44:05,120
Speaker 1: I just think the market has gotten a little too

964
00:44:05,239 --> 00:44:07,759
Speaker 1: hot on this minds team that if anybody listened to

965
00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:09,200
Speaker 1: the podcast last year, we loved them.

966
00:44:09,320 --> 00:44:09,879
Speaker 2: They were great.

967
00:44:10,360 --> 00:44:13,319
Speaker 1: They underperformed their expected metrics were they created a ton

968
00:44:13,320 --> 00:44:16,040
Speaker 1: of big scoring chances. They're a really good pressing team. Well,

969
00:44:16,120 --> 00:44:19,440
Speaker 1: now it's funny how the market flips is now now

970
00:44:20,160 --> 00:44:24,600
Speaker 1: they're completely overperforming. They're expected metricks as of late, and

971
00:44:24,719 --> 00:44:26,879
Speaker 1: now the market's gotten too hot on them. In their

972
00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:30,840
Speaker 1: last eight matches they're unbeaten. They have a plus eleven

973
00:44:30,880 --> 00:44:33,879
Speaker 1: actual goal differential, but their expected goal differential is only

974
00:44:33,960 --> 00:44:36,440
Speaker 1: two point six. And then there's also a huge difference

975
00:44:36,480 --> 00:44:39,000
Speaker 1: between Minus's performances at home, where they have a plus

976
00:44:39,040 --> 00:44:41,640
Speaker 1: three point three expected gold differential versus on the road

977
00:44:41,640 --> 00:44:43,560
Speaker 1: where they have a minus three point six expected gold

978
00:44:43,560 --> 00:44:47,480
Speaker 1: differential Cologne. Before that match against Augsburg, they in their

979
00:44:47,600 --> 00:44:52,000
Speaker 1: last the six or seven seven matches where they went winless,

980
00:44:52,360 --> 00:44:54,400
Speaker 1: they had a minus thirteen actual goal differenial only a

981
00:44:54,480 --> 00:44:56,600
Speaker 1: minus two point eight expected gold differentials. This is a

982
00:44:56,680 --> 00:44:59,920
Speaker 1: really big positive aggression meets negative aggression type of match

983
00:45:00,120 --> 00:45:02,239
Speaker 1: up where you can kind of see the market being

984
00:45:02,280 --> 00:45:04,640
Speaker 1: overinflated and minds, look, they're still a very good pressing team,

985
00:45:04,800 --> 00:45:06,719
Speaker 1: like both s Benson's team is very very good at

986
00:45:06,719 --> 00:45:09,279
Speaker 1: disrupting build up play. But Cologne is a team that

987
00:45:09,520 --> 00:45:11,200
Speaker 1: you know, if you if you look at Opto or

988
00:45:11,360 --> 00:45:14,200
Speaker 1: the analyst to see you know the styles of play

989
00:45:14,280 --> 00:45:16,360
Speaker 1: of our teams, you know, fast and direct or are

990
00:45:16,400 --> 00:45:18,880
Speaker 1: they more slow possession build up? Coloone is kind of

991
00:45:18,920 --> 00:45:20,879
Speaker 1: both those. They're a very very good set piece team

992
00:45:20,920 --> 00:45:24,600
Speaker 1: as well. And again this is essentially two teams that

993
00:45:24,760 --> 00:45:27,640
Speaker 1: have pretty much the exact same expected gold differential. And

994
00:45:27,640 --> 00:45:30,640
Speaker 1: I'm getting the home field advantage boost for Clones, So

995
00:45:30,800 --> 00:45:33,319
Speaker 1: I like Clone and johno Bett minus one ten at home.

996
00:45:33,920 --> 00:45:37,680
Speaker 1: All right, let's move down to Italy. What do you

997
00:45:37,760 --> 00:45:39,720
Speaker 1: have for us at Syria, Anthony, Well.

998
00:45:39,600 --> 00:45:41,960
Speaker 4: You've all been sweating these European tickets on all these

999
00:45:42,000 --> 00:45:45,879
Speaker 4: Italian teams this week. You've got You've got Napoli, I've

1000
00:45:45,920 --> 00:45:49,560
Speaker 4: got Inter, we all have Roma. I think you added Fiorentina.

1001
00:45:49,760 --> 00:45:52,320
Speaker 4: So yeah, sweating a lot of these teams in Europe,

1002
00:45:52,400 --> 00:45:55,040
Speaker 4: which sets up some pretty interesting sandwich spots to get

1003
00:45:55,080 --> 00:45:58,480
Speaker 4: the non European teams catching as home underdogs. And one

1004
00:45:58,480 --> 00:46:01,759
Speaker 4: of those teams is Soswolow so at home now I've

1005
00:46:01,800 --> 00:46:05,680
Speaker 4: talked about to swallow why they will. I had to

1006
00:46:05,719 --> 00:46:09,000
Speaker 4: adjust my model to kind of factor in worse than

1007
00:46:09,080 --> 00:46:12,160
Speaker 4: expected goalkeeping because their goalkeeper has been so bad year

1008
00:46:12,200 --> 00:46:14,879
Speaker 4: after year and it has cost them and one major

1009
00:46:14,960 --> 00:46:17,120
Speaker 4: reason in the last couple of years why they've underperformed

1010
00:46:17,160 --> 00:46:21,399
Speaker 4: their underlying numbers, especially defensively. But as a Juventus team,

1011
00:46:21,680 --> 00:46:25,000
Speaker 4: they don't take very many shots, and so your goalie

1012
00:46:25,239 --> 00:46:28,680
Speaker 4: issues can be not as important when you're facing a

1013
00:46:28,760 --> 00:46:31,440
Speaker 4: Juventus team that just doesn't create shots, doesn't create separation

1014
00:46:31,640 --> 00:46:33,840
Speaker 4: or margin. You've I think, is going to be in

1015
00:46:33,840 --> 00:46:36,839
Speaker 4: a very difficult tie with Lisbon. And so long as

1016
00:46:37,120 --> 00:46:40,759
Speaker 4: you know this band continues, I still see a world

1017
00:46:40,800 --> 00:46:43,680
Speaker 4: where Europa League is the top priority for Legry right now,

1018
00:46:44,160 --> 00:46:46,560
Speaker 4: knowing that they have no real chance the top four otherwise,

1019
00:46:46,680 --> 00:46:48,759
Speaker 4: and the Champions League, which is for a club and

1020
00:46:48,840 --> 00:46:53,120
Speaker 4: financial harold at the moment a very critical situation.

1021
00:46:53,280 --> 00:46:54,560
Speaker 5: So you know, so swallow at home.

1022
00:46:54,960 --> 00:46:56,560
Speaker 4: I don't think the gap is that big between the

1023
00:46:56,560 --> 00:46:59,160
Speaker 4: two teams, even when adjusting for the goalkeeper differences. Because

1024
00:46:59,200 --> 00:47:01,920
Speaker 4: Shesney's been eleaite this year, could be a problem, but

1025
00:47:02,600 --> 00:47:03,680
Speaker 4: I like to Swallow at home.

1026
00:47:04,280 --> 00:47:06,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like probably one of the most boring, probably

1027
00:47:06,960 --> 00:47:10,480
Speaker 1: the most boring match across Europe this entire weekend, Leche

1028
00:47:10,640 --> 00:47:14,640
Speaker 1: taking on samp Doria. Both teams to score no at

1029
00:47:14,680 --> 00:47:18,120
Speaker 1: minus one thirty. These are the two worst offenses in Italy.

1030
00:47:18,920 --> 00:47:22,160
Speaker 1: Leche is dead last, samp Dooria is second to last.

1031
00:47:22,239 --> 00:47:25,399
Speaker 1: But Leche like they're actually a halfway decent defense their

1032
00:47:25,440 --> 00:47:27,920
Speaker 1: top seven to non penalty expected goal shots per ninety

1033
00:47:27,960 --> 00:47:30,359
Speaker 1: and big scoring chances allowed. And they're also a very

1034
00:47:30,520 --> 00:47:33,200
Speaker 1: very good team at disrupting build up play their fourth

1035
00:47:33,280 --> 00:47:36,320
Speaker 1: and passes per defensive action sixth and high turnovers. And

1036
00:47:36,440 --> 00:47:39,279
Speaker 1: Sampdoria is not this direct counter attacking style team.

1037
00:47:39,440 --> 00:47:40,799
Speaker 2: So when you have two of the.

1038
00:47:40,800 --> 00:47:44,360
Speaker 1: Worst offenses in Syria, ah, and you know obviously the

1039
00:47:44,400 --> 00:47:46,920
Speaker 1: total here is set at two pretty straight both ways.

1040
00:47:47,160 --> 00:47:48,680
Speaker 1: I mean I have both team to score no projected

1041
00:47:48,719 --> 00:47:51,160
Speaker 1: well over minus two hundred, so I love the value

1042
00:47:51,200 --> 00:47:53,640
Speaker 1: on that at minus one thirty. All right, let's move

1043
00:47:53,840 --> 00:47:56,520
Speaker 1: over to Spain. What do you have for us in

1044
00:47:56,600 --> 00:47:58,719
Speaker 1: La Liga this weekend? Anthony, One of.

1045
00:47:58,719 --> 00:48:00,640
Speaker 5: The most ugly boards you'll ever see.

1046
00:48:00,760 --> 00:48:02,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, it is, It's very bad.

1047
00:48:02,200 --> 00:48:04,759
Speaker 4: It is a terrible board. But I would look to

1048
00:48:05,239 --> 00:48:08,840
Speaker 4: Bill Ballen Sosiadad. Both teams to score yes, a classic

1049
00:48:08,920 --> 00:48:11,879
Speaker 4: situation and in Spain that we've seen in the last

1050
00:48:11,920 --> 00:48:14,000
Speaker 4: couple of months, especially where just the market gets too

1051
00:48:14,040 --> 00:48:17,480
Speaker 4: low on these attacks and I have no choice put

1052
00:48:17,520 --> 00:48:20,600
Speaker 4: to betan over that is usually da but that would

1053
00:48:20,640 --> 00:48:22,920
Speaker 4: be my look there in Spain. Otherwise I may just

1054
00:48:22,960 --> 00:48:25,760
Speaker 4: sit out the rest of the card because it is ood.

1055
00:48:26,480 --> 00:48:29,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna take a shot on. It is Real

1056
00:48:29,440 --> 00:48:31,040
Speaker 1: Madrid over two and a half. It is a It

1057
00:48:31,160 --> 00:48:33,839
Speaker 1: is a sandwich spot for Real Madrid and they're pretty

1058
00:48:33,880 --> 00:48:35,480
Speaker 1: much out of the law League title race here, so

1059
00:48:35,560 --> 00:48:38,200
Speaker 1: this match might not mean nothing to them. But Kadiz

1060
00:48:38,239 --> 00:48:40,600
Speaker 1: is one of the worst offenses in Spain. They're eighteenth

1061
00:48:40,600 --> 00:48:43,319
Speaker 1: and non penalty expected goals and they're fighting for their

1062
00:48:43,400 --> 00:48:45,480
Speaker 1: lives in terms of the relegation battle, so they have

1063
00:48:45,560 --> 00:48:47,800
Speaker 1: to play aggressive going forward, which is just not a

1064
00:48:47,920 --> 00:48:51,680
Speaker 1: good case going forward against Real Madrid. So you know,

1065
00:48:51,760 --> 00:48:54,160
Speaker 1: I project three point three goals and that's about what

1066
00:48:54,239 --> 00:48:56,000
Speaker 1: it was the last time Real Madrid won this match

1067
00:48:56,560 --> 00:48:59,239
Speaker 1: two to one, about three expected goals were created. So

1068
00:49:00,040 --> 00:49:01,919
Speaker 1: getting over two and a half minus one twenty five

1069
00:49:02,440 --> 00:49:05,600
Speaker 1: playoffs minus one thirty, I think it's decent value. And

1070
00:49:05,719 --> 00:49:08,760
Speaker 1: let's finally wrap things up around euro Up here with France,

1071
00:49:08,840 --> 00:49:12,840
Speaker 1: and we have a huge match in France this weekend,

1072
00:49:13,640 --> 00:49:13,880
Speaker 1: and you.

1073
00:49:13,920 --> 00:49:15,520
Speaker 2: Have a bet on it. PSG versus Lens.

1074
00:49:16,080 --> 00:49:16,279
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1075
00:49:16,360 --> 00:49:19,200
Speaker 4: PSG stole that win against Neath last week. They got

1076
00:49:19,239 --> 00:49:22,120
Speaker 4: out played for large stretches of it again. You know,

1077
00:49:22,200 --> 00:49:26,879
Speaker 4: granted MESSI was messy, but I like Long both as

1078
00:49:26,960 --> 00:49:30,239
Speaker 4: a money line underdog and as a plus a half

1079
00:49:30,360 --> 00:49:32,400
Speaker 4: or plus one underdog, depending on how you want to

1080
00:49:32,440 --> 00:49:34,800
Speaker 4: take it. I took some plus a half plus one thirty.

1081
00:49:35,120 --> 00:49:38,480
Speaker 4: They are playing much better at the moment. They look

1082
00:49:38,680 --> 00:49:41,759
Speaker 4: like if they win this match, they're live. You can

1083
00:49:41,960 --> 00:49:43,719
Speaker 4: find north of twenty five to one out there to

1084
00:49:43,800 --> 00:49:47,040
Speaker 4: win Legua. PSG schedule is pretty friendly coming in, so

1085
00:49:47,080 --> 00:49:49,360
Speaker 4: I think that's definitely gonna be a problem for LAW trying.

1086
00:49:49,160 --> 00:49:50,960
Speaker 2: To get this. This is it like they got to

1087
00:49:50,960 --> 00:49:51,759
Speaker 2: win this if they want to.

1088
00:49:52,120 --> 00:49:55,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, And so you know, I'm intrigued and I'm going

1089
00:49:55,200 --> 00:49:58,000
Speaker 5: to take them, So I like Law. All right.

1090
00:49:58,080 --> 00:50:01,120
Speaker 1: That does it for our jaunt around Europe. Let's wrap

1091
00:50:01,200 --> 00:50:03,920
Speaker 1: things up with best bets, Anthony. What's your best bet

1092
00:50:03,960 --> 00:50:04,960
Speaker 1: in the Premier League this weekend.

1093
00:50:05,360 --> 00:50:08,439
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go with Nottingham Forest plus one at home

1094
00:50:08,600 --> 00:50:12,200
Speaker 4: against Manchester United. I talked earlier on the show about

1095
00:50:12,239 --> 00:50:15,640
Speaker 4: Marcus Rashford and his absence and how that affects United's

1096
00:50:15,680 --> 00:50:18,480
Speaker 4: ability to get high quality shots. I think They're gonna

1097
00:50:18,520 --> 00:50:20,319
Speaker 4: end up taking a lot of long range shots from

1098
00:50:20,400 --> 00:50:22,520
Speaker 4: distance and get a little bit frustrated and build up

1099
00:50:22,520 --> 00:50:25,440
Speaker 4: possession because of that, because veg Horse is not getting

1100
00:50:25,480 --> 00:50:28,800
Speaker 4: you enough quantity and Anthony is not getting you enough quality.

1101
00:50:29,160 --> 00:50:32,000
Speaker 4: Sancho has been inconsistent in his minutes. So even though

1102
00:50:32,080 --> 00:50:34,480
Speaker 4: Casimiro and Erickson are set to make their big return,

1103
00:50:35,160 --> 00:50:37,640
Speaker 4: I'm gonna fade them. I'm gonna take Forest who's been

1104
00:50:37,719 --> 00:50:41,000
Speaker 4: competitive at home, and United has been a very mediocre

1105
00:50:41,280 --> 00:50:43,440
Speaker 4: away side this year, So give me.

1106
00:50:43,440 --> 00:50:45,279
Speaker 5: The trees at home catching a goal.

1107
00:50:45,560 --> 00:50:48,640
Speaker 1: I like Leeds in Liverpool over three goals at minus

1108
00:50:48,719 --> 00:50:53,000
Speaker 1: one ten on Monday afternoon. Leeds's defense has been abysmal

1109
00:50:53,080 --> 00:50:56,160
Speaker 1: since Hobby Garcia took over fourteen point nine expected goals

1110
00:50:56,160 --> 00:50:58,319
Speaker 1: allowed in his seven matches in charge, and they hit

1111
00:50:58,400 --> 00:51:01,719
Speaker 1: rock bottom against Crystal Palace conceded five goals, so Roy

1112
00:51:01,800 --> 00:51:05,600
Speaker 1: Hodgson's side. Liverpool's offense looked great against Arsenal in the

1113
00:51:05,680 --> 00:51:08,239
Speaker 1: second half. They created over four expected goals for the

1114
00:51:08,400 --> 00:51:10,680
Speaker 1: entire match. And this is Liverpool offense that has been

1115
00:51:10,800 --> 00:51:12,960
Speaker 1: really good all season long, and it hasn't had any problems.

1116
00:51:13,239 --> 00:51:15,440
Speaker 1: One point seven to four non penalty expected goals per

1117
00:51:15,520 --> 00:51:18,200
Speaker 1: ninety minutes. That's third in the Premier League. But the

1118
00:51:18,239 --> 00:51:21,120
Speaker 1: Liverpool defense still has some real issues. It was a

1119
00:51:21,160 --> 00:51:23,480
Speaker 1: comedy of errors that led to the two goals against Arsenal.

1120
00:51:23,800 --> 00:51:26,640
Speaker 1: They've now conceded the fifth most big scoring chances in

1121
00:51:26,760 --> 00:51:29,560
Speaker 1: the Premier League and they just can't counterpress the way

1122
00:51:29,560 --> 00:51:31,520
Speaker 1: that they did in years past. So now that's a

1123
00:51:31,560 --> 00:51:34,320
Speaker 1: team that's not set up to play in elite style

1124
00:51:34,440 --> 00:51:36,719
Speaker 1: tackley than that high pressing style that we've seen over

1125
00:51:36,760 --> 00:51:39,160
Speaker 1: the years, which is going to end up creating a

1126
00:51:39,320 --> 00:51:41,360
Speaker 1: very end to end style match here. I see a

1127
00:51:41,360 --> 00:51:43,480
Speaker 1: lot of chances either end. I project three point seven

1128
00:51:43,520 --> 00:51:45,279
Speaker 1: goals for this match, so I like the over three

1129
00:51:45,320 --> 00:51:47,800
Speaker 1: goals at minus one ten. All right, that'll do it

1130
00:51:48,000 --> 00:51:50,120
Speaker 1: for me and Anthony here. Michael will be back in

1131
00:51:50,160 --> 00:51:53,799
Speaker 1: the host chair on Sunday night. But before we get

1132
00:51:53,800 --> 00:51:55,840
Speaker 1: out of here, we're gonna have a little chat with

1133
00:51:56,000 --> 00:51:58,400
Speaker 1: our friend Eric Manalla talking about what we saw in

1134
00:51:58,440 --> 00:52:02,080
Speaker 1: the Champions League and some US men's national team stuff.

1135
00:52:02,160 --> 00:52:05,239
Speaker 1: So stick around for that interview, but we will see

1136
00:52:05,280 --> 00:52:07,840
Speaker 1: you again on Monday morning for the second leg of

1137
00:52:08,040 --> 00:52:08,839
Speaker 1: the Champions League.

1138
00:52:09,160 --> 00:52:13,400
Speaker 4: We are now joined by frequent guests and basically co

1139
00:52:13,520 --> 00:52:17,000
Speaker 4: host of the show at this point, Eric Lenalda, Eric,

1140
00:52:17,680 --> 00:52:18,640
Speaker 4: you thought Byron.

1141
00:52:18,480 --> 00:52:18,920
Speaker 3: Was going to win.

1142
00:52:19,120 --> 00:52:21,120
Speaker 4: I think we were all in agreement that it would

1143
00:52:21,120 --> 00:52:24,200
Speaker 4: be closer than it ended up being on Tuesday afternoon.

1144
00:52:24,920 --> 00:52:27,239
Speaker 4: What do you attribute to Bayern? Now they've been under

1145
00:52:27,280 --> 00:52:29,800
Speaker 4: Tuckle for about ten days, maybe two weeks.

1146
00:52:29,840 --> 00:52:30,680
Speaker 5: They had the huge win in.

1147
00:52:30,680 --> 00:52:32,680
Speaker 4: Deir Classic here, but they have now gone out to

1148
00:52:32,719 --> 00:52:35,439
Speaker 4: Freiburg in the Cup and have all but gone out

1149
00:52:35,920 --> 00:52:37,520
Speaker 4: to City in the Champions League. What do you make

1150
00:52:37,600 --> 00:52:40,200
Speaker 4: of what happened on Tuesday and what it says about

1151
00:52:40,320 --> 00:52:41,440
Speaker 4: you know what's going on there?

1152
00:52:41,960 --> 00:52:47,560
Speaker 3: Well, oopa McConnell, let's just start their unbelievably poor performance.

1153
00:52:48,520 --> 00:52:53,400
Speaker 3: It's a It really illuminated one facts that tucle is

1154
00:52:53,400 --> 00:52:54,800
Speaker 3: going to want to play a certain way and it

1155
00:52:54,880 --> 00:52:59,680
Speaker 3: demands a different skill set than he has. It just

1156
00:53:00,120 --> 00:53:02,680
Speaker 3: it didn't work. If you watch the guy went back

1157
00:53:02,719 --> 00:53:05,480
Speaker 3: and watched that second part, how many times he gave

1158
00:53:05,520 --> 00:53:09,840
Speaker 3: the ball away the miscommunications. The second goal. It absolutely

1159
00:53:09,880 --> 00:53:13,600
Speaker 3: crushed Byron, absolutely destroyed them. I mean, Greeley's just clever,

1160
00:53:13,880 --> 00:53:15,520
Speaker 3: you know, and and it's a it's a great back

1161
00:53:15,600 --> 00:53:17,880
Speaker 3: hill and Holland who would have thought he would have

1162
00:53:18,719 --> 00:53:20,680
Speaker 3: had the presence to chip it to the shortest guy

1163
00:53:20,760 --> 00:53:22,520
Speaker 3: in the field. But when when your five foot seven

1164
00:53:22,560 --> 00:53:26,400
Speaker 3: guy runs onto a ball and has a free header,

1165
00:53:26,960 --> 00:53:29,560
Speaker 3: that means everybody's out of place. The way that Tuckle

1166
00:53:29,680 --> 00:53:32,920
Speaker 3: likes to play it really is expansive in that part

1167
00:53:33,000 --> 00:53:35,520
Speaker 3: of the field, and if you start losing the ball,

1168
00:53:35,840 --> 00:53:39,239
Speaker 3: you could be in big trouble. It happened with Freiburg

1169
00:53:39,360 --> 00:53:42,120
Speaker 3: and Open. McConnell also had the if you remember the

1170
00:53:42,440 --> 00:53:47,120
Speaker 3: penalty kick several weeks ago. Plasterers put that away with

1171
00:53:47,200 --> 00:53:49,960
Speaker 3: Livercus and so it's it's a it's an issue. I mean,

1172
00:53:50,040 --> 00:53:54,160
Speaker 3: there's there's there's a problem, and I think they'll ultimately

1173
00:53:55,200 --> 00:53:58,520
Speaker 3: try to solve it come June in July. But I

1174
00:53:58,640 --> 00:54:01,200
Speaker 3: was really disappointed, man. I thought I thought this was

1175
00:54:01,280 --> 00:54:04,000
Speaker 3: it for barn I I thought that this was a

1176
00:54:04,080 --> 00:54:08,920
Speaker 3: real opportunity. And look, there was no there was no

1177
00:54:09,120 --> 00:54:14,200
Speaker 3: pep overthinkt Stones and Rodery and the midfield actually worked

1178
00:54:14,200 --> 00:54:17,239
Speaker 3: out great, didn't it. So he gets stones, gets the

1179
00:54:17,360 --> 00:54:21,080
Speaker 3: assist on on Holland's goal. It's not beautiful football, but

1180
00:54:21,160 --> 00:54:23,000
Speaker 3: it's it's old school lob it in there and let

1181
00:54:23,040 --> 00:54:25,239
Speaker 3: the guy hit it down and let the let the

1182
00:54:25,320 --> 00:54:28,279
Speaker 3: bear eat. That's all it happened. It wasn't, you know,

1183
00:54:28,440 --> 00:54:32,680
Speaker 3: typical beautiful Man City football, but it was certainly effective.

1184
00:54:32,760 --> 00:54:34,879
Speaker 3: So you know, you got to head it to Pep

1185
00:54:34,960 --> 00:54:39,360
Speaker 3: on this one. He really it was an unbelievable performance defensively.

1186
00:54:40,280 --> 00:54:42,640
Speaker 3: I went back and did a lot of screenshotting of

1187
00:54:42,760 --> 00:54:45,680
Speaker 3: there there. It just just how connected they were and

1188
00:54:45,760 --> 00:54:49,000
Speaker 3: how compact they were in certain parts of the game,

1189
00:54:49,600 --> 00:54:52,120
Speaker 3: really impossible to break down. And then of course now

1190
00:54:52,160 --> 00:54:55,080
Speaker 3: we're hearing the reports of you know, money hits sad,

1191
00:54:55,320 --> 00:54:58,760
Speaker 3: so if there'sn't a fight once a week in Germany

1192
00:54:58,800 --> 00:55:01,520
Speaker 3: and things aren't normal, But this was not the time

1193
00:55:01,960 --> 00:55:03,879
Speaker 3: to do that. So a little unrested with the team,

1194
00:55:04,600 --> 00:55:08,719
Speaker 3: Tufoulas gets his second loss. Not the best uh, not

1195
00:55:08,800 --> 00:55:10,680
Speaker 3: the best couple of weeks, huh. I mean, it wasn't

1196
00:55:10,719 --> 00:55:15,200
Speaker 3: what we expected, but hats off to Man City. Uh.

1197
00:55:15,360 --> 00:55:17,200
Speaker 3: But but Byron certainly has some work to do.

1198
00:55:17,760 --> 00:55:19,359
Speaker 5: Even in the first half before that second goal.

1199
00:55:19,400 --> 00:55:21,080
Speaker 4: I mean, there was two or three situations where they

1200
00:55:21,120 --> 00:55:23,239
Speaker 4: were putting Sommer in hell, trying to get him out

1201
00:55:23,239 --> 00:55:26,520
Speaker 4: of the situations and terrible back passes and playing him

1202
00:55:26,600 --> 00:55:29,080
Speaker 4: under pressure. Holland almost closed him down for the first goal,

1203
00:55:29,160 --> 00:55:32,000
Speaker 4: and it was dangerous stuff all day and it felt

1204
00:55:32,080 --> 00:55:33,880
Speaker 4: like eventually that was going to cost him.

1205
00:55:34,360 --> 00:55:35,040
Speaker 2: From what I saw.

1206
00:55:35,120 --> 00:55:38,560
Speaker 1: It's something similar that has happened to both leip Sing

1207
00:55:38,640 --> 00:55:41,440
Speaker 1: and Arsenal recently. With City is that City kind of

1208
00:55:41,440 --> 00:55:43,120
Speaker 1: sat off a little bit to begin with, Like like

1209
00:55:43,200 --> 00:55:45,600
Speaker 1: you mentioned, they were staying very very compact, not really

1210
00:55:45,680 --> 00:55:48,880
Speaker 1: pressing high very much. And once you know Byron or

1211
00:55:48,960 --> 00:55:51,320
Speaker 1: you know, once they made a mistake, City just pounced

1212
00:55:51,360 --> 00:55:53,040
Speaker 1: on it. And they are the number one team in

1213
00:55:53,040 --> 00:55:55,640
Speaker 1: the world. You cannot make mistakes and build up play against.

1214
00:55:55,680 --> 00:55:58,000
Speaker 1: It happened to the Arsenal twice. It happened with leip

1215
00:55:58,040 --> 00:56:00,520
Speaker 1: Sing in the first hand second leg. So with all

1216
00:56:00,520 --> 00:56:02,080
Speaker 1: the tactical stuff, I thought, it just came down to

1217
00:56:02,200 --> 00:56:06,240
Speaker 1: a couple of bad mistakes and that's ended up costing

1218
00:56:06,320 --> 00:56:09,640
Speaker 1: Byron so and now it's I mean, I don't think

1219
00:56:09,640 --> 00:56:11,640
Speaker 1: there's any chance that they can come back, even though

1220
00:56:11,680 --> 00:56:12,680
Speaker 1: going back to Munich, I don't know.

1221
00:56:12,920 --> 00:56:15,840
Speaker 3: They'll they'll German this thing. Trust me, those score.

1222
00:56:15,680 --> 00:56:16,600
Speaker 2: Two make it interesting.

1223
00:56:17,040 --> 00:56:19,600
Speaker 3: Yeah for sure, you know that's that's that's kind that

1224
00:56:19,680 --> 00:56:22,040
Speaker 3: we can plan on that, but it might not be enough.

1225
00:56:22,160 --> 00:56:25,440
Speaker 3: But man, I'm a big disappointment from my end just

1226
00:56:25,560 --> 00:56:29,840
Speaker 3: watching that game live and then the rewatch was even worse.

1227
00:56:30,120 --> 00:56:32,240
Speaker 3: It was tough sledding there for Byron.

1228
00:56:32,719 --> 00:56:34,560
Speaker 5: Yeah, Iron as high as eighteen to one.

1229
00:56:34,640 --> 00:56:35,799
Speaker 4: Now if you want to, if you want to get

1230
00:56:35,840 --> 00:56:38,279
Speaker 4: crazy and stay to come back, I don't see it now.

1231
00:56:38,360 --> 00:56:39,279
Speaker 5: It's not even enough at.

1232
00:56:39,280 --> 00:56:40,480
Speaker 1: Least thirty to have a chance there.

1233
00:56:41,920 --> 00:56:43,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's move on to Wednesday.

1234
00:56:43,840 --> 00:56:45,880
Speaker 1: What we just saw here recording this on Wednesday night,

1235
00:56:46,080 --> 00:56:49,919
Speaker 1: Real Madrid to nothing against Chelsea, a very pretty poor

1236
00:56:49,960 --> 00:56:53,000
Speaker 1: performance from Chelsea. Honestly, Real Madrid is probably through in

1237
00:56:53,120 --> 00:56:55,960
Speaker 1: this tie, although you know what we saw last season.

1238
00:56:56,040 --> 00:56:58,719
Speaker 1: They you know, they almost bundled it against Chelsea. But

1239
00:56:59,360 --> 00:57:02,080
Speaker 1: if Real Madrid go through, what chances do you give

1240
00:57:02,120 --> 00:57:04,560
Speaker 1: them at taking out Man City again? Uh?

1241
00:57:04,920 --> 00:57:08,120
Speaker 3: Man, that's that's what a wonderful what a wonderful fixture

1242
00:57:08,160 --> 00:57:11,120
Speaker 3: that's gonna be. There's a lot that there's just so

1243
00:57:11,320 --> 00:57:13,799
Speaker 3: much to it. I think when it when it comes

1244
00:57:13,880 --> 00:57:17,000
Speaker 3: to Madrid, they're just capable of the magical moments that

1245
00:57:17,080 --> 00:57:20,080
Speaker 3: win games. You know, we keep writing benz off and

1246
00:57:20,200 --> 00:57:23,280
Speaker 3: it's just he's not dead yet, folks. The guy is

1247
00:57:23,440 --> 00:57:26,280
Speaker 3: still good. And then from what I understand, they're managing

1248
00:57:26,360 --> 00:57:29,840
Speaker 3: him very differently. He gets more days off than than

1249
00:57:29,920 --> 00:57:33,800
Speaker 3: most rightly so, but they just have too much experience

1250
00:57:34,520 --> 00:57:37,680
Speaker 3: to write off. But it will really come down, come

1251
00:57:37,760 --> 00:57:40,160
Speaker 3: down to the day. I mean, you're watching him, watching

1252
00:57:40,280 --> 00:57:42,680
Speaker 3: him today, and you know you could you could say

1253
00:57:42,720 --> 00:57:45,120
Speaker 3: what you like about Chelsea's performance. I don't like the selection.

1254
00:57:45,360 --> 00:57:48,560
Speaker 3: I mean, if you saw Joel Felix's breakaway, that was

1255
00:57:49,240 --> 00:57:52,160
Speaker 3: really the first if the first thing you got to

1256
00:57:52,200 --> 00:57:54,640
Speaker 3: look at is like when they get stretched, understand the

1257
00:57:54,680 --> 00:57:56,600
Speaker 3: moments where you can get after them, and you're going

1258
00:57:56,640 --> 00:57:59,280
Speaker 3: to get him on the break. But I mean, if

1259
00:57:59,360 --> 00:58:03,280
Speaker 3: Mudrich is the guy chasing that down, he wins that race.

1260
00:58:03,760 --> 00:58:05,800
Speaker 3: John Felix has never been a goal scorer, He's never

1261
00:58:05,840 --> 00:58:08,880
Speaker 3: had double figures in Spain. I don't think it's fair

1262
00:58:09,120 --> 00:58:12,560
Speaker 3: to really expect that kind of output out of him.

1263
00:58:13,000 --> 00:58:14,960
Speaker 3: I think he'll be great once they figure out who

1264
00:58:15,000 --> 00:58:18,400
Speaker 3: they're actual nine is. It's not a Hartz right, and

1265
00:58:18,520 --> 00:58:21,840
Speaker 3: it's not Christian politic, and it certainly isn't John Felix,

1266
00:58:22,640 --> 00:58:24,680
Speaker 3: and it might not even been Madrid. I mean, the

1267
00:58:24,760 --> 00:58:26,880
Speaker 3: problem is is they've got six guys that play the

1268
00:58:26,920 --> 00:58:30,560
Speaker 3: same position and they're all wingers. Sterling didn't have a

1269
00:58:30,600 --> 00:58:34,040
Speaker 3: good day. But there is a blueprint in there to

1270
00:58:34,640 --> 00:58:38,360
Speaker 3: try and figure out exactly what Man City essentially did

1271
00:58:38,560 --> 00:58:41,480
Speaker 3: to Byron. If they do that again, I give them

1272
00:58:41,520 --> 00:58:44,200
Speaker 3: the nod on this. As good as real Madrid is

1273
00:58:44,680 --> 00:58:47,520
Speaker 3: and Courtois is still I mean there's a couple of

1274
00:58:47,600 --> 00:58:50,400
Speaker 3: moments in there maybe there should have been a goal,

1275
00:58:50,520 --> 00:58:53,520
Speaker 3: but if it's a different goalkeeper. But Courtois is doing

1276
00:58:53,560 --> 00:58:56,280
Speaker 3: it again. He's doing what he did to Liverpool. It's

1277
00:58:56,320 --> 00:58:59,440
Speaker 3: pretty fantastic to watch it times he's capable of the blunder.

1278
00:58:59,560 --> 00:59:01,840
Speaker 3: But look, I still think Madrid as good as they are.

1279
00:59:01,960 --> 00:59:04,560
Speaker 3: They this is City's year. This is City's year to

1280
00:59:04,640 --> 00:59:07,160
Speaker 3: lose it. I don't think. I don't see them slipping up.

1281
00:59:07,560 --> 00:59:09,360
Speaker 3: And Greeley is just finally figured out how to play

1282
00:59:09,400 --> 00:59:13,080
Speaker 3: in this deal, so it looks good. I think City

1283
00:59:13,440 --> 00:59:17,320
Speaker 3: City ultimately makes their way to the final. And I

1284
00:59:17,400 --> 00:59:19,680
Speaker 3: guess we know one thing for certain is probably well

1285
00:59:19,760 --> 00:59:22,360
Speaker 3: not certain, but pretty much it'll be an Italian team,

1286
00:59:22,440 --> 00:59:25,880
Speaker 3: that's for sure. And that's that's another part of the equation.

1287
00:59:26,000 --> 00:59:28,280
Speaker 3: It's it's it's it's really going to be a question

1288
00:59:28,360 --> 00:59:30,640
Speaker 3: of Napoli can come back from today, put up a

1289
00:59:30,720 --> 00:59:34,000
Speaker 3: fight and and figure out how to get themselves into

1290
00:59:34,040 --> 00:59:36,240
Speaker 3: a final. But we might be looking it. We might

1291
00:59:36,280 --> 00:59:38,960
Speaker 3: be looking at a Milan derby for the for the semi.

1292
00:59:39,040 --> 00:59:40,640
Speaker 2: So that'd be incredible, crazy stuff.

1293
00:59:40,920 --> 00:59:42,720
Speaker 4: You would not hear complaints from me as somebody who

1294
00:59:42,760 --> 00:59:44,720
Speaker 4: has an inter ticket that they've been sitting on or

1295
00:59:45,040 --> 00:59:46,240
Speaker 4: have no chance.

1296
00:59:47,240 --> 00:59:48,480
Speaker 2: Or a team al on ticket for me.

1297
00:59:48,840 --> 00:59:50,160
Speaker 3: But there's a long way to go. I mean, this

1298
00:59:50,280 --> 00:59:52,280
Speaker 3: is what people forget. I mean, we're looking at current

1299
00:59:52,400 --> 00:59:55,640
Speaker 3: form and you know, you're a couple of you know,

1300
00:59:55,720 --> 00:59:57,480
Speaker 3: looking at the Bruyn and going down the way he did.

1301
00:59:58,240 --> 01:00:00,280
Speaker 3: Still haven't got the full report of how bad that is.

1302
01:00:00,360 --> 01:00:03,240
Speaker 3: I think it's a media collateral ligament, which if it

1303
01:00:03,360 --> 01:00:06,760
Speaker 3: is that that could that could certainly dampen things for them.

1304
01:00:06,800 --> 01:00:09,320
Speaker 3: But I mean a couple of injuries and and this

1305
01:00:09,520 --> 01:00:11,320
Speaker 3: is a whole new ball game so we can't. It's

1306
01:00:11,440 --> 01:00:14,080
Speaker 3: really difficult this, this one more so than any other

1307
01:00:14,680 --> 01:00:17,000
Speaker 3: Champions League, I think, is so hard to figure out

1308
01:00:17,080 --> 01:00:18,440
Speaker 3: how this is all going to play out. You got

1309
01:00:18,560 --> 01:00:19,240
Speaker 3: to go game to game.

1310
01:00:19,560 --> 01:00:22,680
Speaker 5: Also, Big Victor Otzeman not playing today and we'll see

1311
01:00:22,720 --> 01:00:24,240
Speaker 5: what his status is in six days.

1312
01:00:24,320 --> 01:00:27,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, and no knowing or Men and Kim Jay for Napoli.

1313
01:00:27,840 --> 01:00:29,760
Speaker 5: Yeah, a bunch of that hurts them.

1314
01:00:30,080 --> 01:00:33,200
Speaker 3: Unio though that for for Monopoly to lose to Milan,

1315
01:00:33,360 --> 01:00:36,160
Speaker 3: you know, they lose the four zero Userman wasn't able

1316
01:00:36,240 --> 01:00:38,160
Speaker 3: to play in that one either, and and now they

1317
01:00:38,880 --> 01:00:40,640
Speaker 3: fall on this one. I mean the red card certainly

1318
01:00:40,680 --> 01:00:43,520
Speaker 3: affected the game. But pretty interesting time right now for

1319
01:00:43,760 --> 01:00:46,320
Speaker 3: for Milan, because this is getting really interesting. I thought

1320
01:00:46,400 --> 01:00:51,320
Speaker 3: Milan entered on Tuesday was absolutely terrific on the defensive

1321
01:00:51,360 --> 01:00:54,240
Speaker 3: side of things, really made things difficult for Benfica. So

1322
01:00:55,000 --> 01:00:56,880
Speaker 3: they're sitting in the in the driver's seat to get

1323
01:00:56,920 --> 01:00:59,000
Speaker 3: themselves in a good spot. They now they can do

1324
01:00:59,080 --> 01:01:02,080
Speaker 3: what they what they do and that's nothing and just

1325
01:01:02,240 --> 01:01:04,080
Speaker 3: wait till the end of the game and possibly get

1326
01:01:04,120 --> 01:01:06,480
Speaker 3: another penalty kick and then put it away with Bluecacku.

1327
01:01:06,640 --> 01:01:09,720
Speaker 3: So interwer really doesn't have to do much to find

1328
01:01:09,760 --> 01:01:11,000
Speaker 3: their way into a semi.

1329
01:01:11,200 --> 01:01:15,080
Speaker 5: Let's move on to uh some man, Jesse Marsh.

1330
01:01:15,280 --> 01:01:17,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, the guy who will not stay out of the

1331
01:01:18,000 --> 01:01:20,600
Speaker 1: headlines despite saying he wants to take some time away

1332
01:01:20,640 --> 01:01:23,240
Speaker 1: from the game. He's almost he was almost the Lester

1333
01:01:23,360 --> 01:01:26,200
Speaker 1: manager and then talks broke down once again, just like

1334
01:01:26,240 --> 01:01:28,440
Speaker 1: they do with Southampton. Do we have another similar situation

1335
01:01:28,600 --> 01:01:31,000
Speaker 1: where his agent we want to wire the long term

1336
01:01:31,080 --> 01:01:32,640
Speaker 1: deal and Lester was like, no, we just want to

1337
01:01:32,640 --> 01:01:33,640
Speaker 1: do it through the end of the season.

1338
01:01:34,680 --> 01:01:38,520
Speaker 3: See the what what Jesse does, and I think we've

1339
01:01:38,560 --> 01:01:41,240
Speaker 3: discussed this before on previous podcast, is he likes to

1340
01:01:41,320 --> 01:01:43,120
Speaker 3: go in and he asked the questions. He wants to

1341
01:01:43,160 --> 01:01:45,120
Speaker 3: know what your plan is. He wants to know what

1342
01:01:45,240 --> 01:01:48,000
Speaker 3: the long term deal is. And that just wasn't the

1343
01:01:48,040 --> 01:01:51,200
Speaker 3: way this conversation needed to go. They needed a quick fix.

1344
01:01:51,440 --> 01:01:54,000
Speaker 3: They they're in big trouble. I mean they're not. I

1345
01:01:54,080 --> 01:01:56,520
Speaker 3: mean and look who they running into this week. I

1346
01:01:56,520 --> 01:01:58,360
Speaker 3: think they've got City right right out of the gate.

1347
01:01:58,480 --> 01:02:02,640
Speaker 3: So they don't have time for somebody to plead patience

1348
01:02:02,840 --> 01:02:05,640
Speaker 3: or to say that you know, this is the project

1349
01:02:05,720 --> 01:02:06,840
Speaker 3: and this is what I want to do and this

1350
01:02:06,880 --> 01:02:08,920
Speaker 3: is where we're going to be in three years. They

1351
01:02:08,960 --> 01:02:10,480
Speaker 3: don't know where they're going to be in three weeks.

1352
01:02:10,680 --> 01:02:14,000
Speaker 3: So it's Ron Waxman. That's his name, that's the agent.

1353
01:02:14,360 --> 01:02:16,760
Speaker 3: I know him really well. I always make fun of him.

1354
01:02:16,800 --> 01:02:19,440
Speaker 3: He always looks like he's boarding a plane to the Bahamas.

1355
01:02:19,520 --> 01:02:21,560
Speaker 3: Every time I see him. He's got some flowered shirt.

1356
01:02:22,240 --> 01:02:24,400
Speaker 3: But the guy's killing it. And the reason why he's

1357
01:02:24,480 --> 01:02:26,640
Speaker 3: killing it is because when he does a deal, he

1358
01:02:26,760 --> 01:02:28,840
Speaker 3: makes sure that it's long term and he makes it

1359
01:02:29,160 --> 01:02:34,080
Speaker 3: really hard to fire his clients. That's his tactic. On

1360
01:02:34,200 --> 01:02:37,600
Speaker 3: this particular occasion, it didn't work. What was really interesting

1361
01:02:37,680 --> 01:02:40,280
Speaker 3: to me is I just don't understand this part. I'm

1362
01:02:40,320 --> 01:02:43,439
Speaker 3: not trying to be cruel. Jesse's a friend, but Jesse

1363
01:02:43,440 --> 01:02:47,560
Speaker 3: he really hasn't earned the right to go into these

1364
01:02:47,640 --> 01:02:50,200
Speaker 3: conversations with you know, you know, with his chin up

1365
01:02:50,240 --> 01:02:53,400
Speaker 3: and basically you know, making the rules. I mean, I'm

1366
01:02:53,440 --> 01:02:55,280
Speaker 3: not saying he should be desperate, but I do think

1367
01:02:55,840 --> 01:02:58,400
Speaker 3: it's time for him to take a step back. Maybe

1368
01:02:58,520 --> 01:03:02,160
Speaker 3: do a Vincent company, get some success. Really, really, if

1369
01:03:02,200 --> 01:03:03,760
Speaker 3: you really have a project and you really want to

1370
01:03:04,000 --> 01:03:06,400
Speaker 3: have a style of play, and these are my principles

1371
01:03:06,440 --> 01:03:08,960
Speaker 3: and you want to go that route, prove it, prove

1372
01:03:09,000 --> 01:03:11,800
Speaker 3: it somewhere that we can actually say this is the

1373
01:03:11,920 --> 01:03:15,040
Speaker 3: sample size that isn't this big, it's this big, and

1374
01:03:15,200 --> 01:03:16,920
Speaker 3: this guy might be the right guy. I think that's

1375
01:03:16,960 --> 01:03:20,520
Speaker 3: hard for his ego to swallow, but he's gonna need

1376
01:03:20,560 --> 01:03:24,919
Speaker 3: to take a step back and get two or three

1377
01:03:25,120 --> 01:03:28,640
Speaker 3: years of work in before he starts going into those

1378
01:03:28,680 --> 01:03:30,960
Speaker 3: conversations thinking that he's making the rules.

1379
01:03:31,520 --> 01:03:33,240
Speaker 5: So, you know, we talk about the relegation battle.

1380
01:03:33,360 --> 01:03:36,640
Speaker 4: Right now, Leeds is two points clear of Safety eight

1381
01:03:36,720 --> 01:03:39,160
Speaker 4: matches to go. They're two points out of Forest and

1382
01:03:39,320 --> 01:03:41,840
Speaker 4: Everton and then Lester's are twenty five hump.

1383
01:03:41,680 --> 01:03:42,200
Speaker 2: To twenty three.

1384
01:03:42,920 --> 01:03:45,040
Speaker 4: Leads is not favored to go down, but it's now

1385
01:03:45,120 --> 01:03:47,320
Speaker 4: in the realm of possibility where it could certainly happen.

1386
01:03:48,400 --> 01:03:52,360
Speaker 4: What's the outlook potentially for all these American players if

1387
01:03:52,560 --> 01:03:54,960
Speaker 4: Leads were to get relegated, which for the record, I

1388
01:03:55,000 --> 01:03:57,240
Speaker 4: still don't think is going to happen, but we'll see.

1389
01:03:57,520 --> 01:03:58,040
Speaker 2: I don't either.

1390
01:03:58,160 --> 01:04:00,840
Speaker 3: I think Forrest is in probably the biggest trouble even

1391
01:04:00,880 --> 01:04:04,040
Speaker 3: though they're and unless there's really not in a good spot.

1392
01:04:04,240 --> 01:04:07,760
Speaker 3: And of course Southampton and Bournemouth look look like they

1393
01:04:07,840 --> 01:04:11,920
Speaker 3: could be serious candidates. I'm I'm strong on Everton saving it.

1394
01:04:12,160 --> 01:04:15,600
Speaker 3: I really do think that they're they're going to figure

1395
01:04:15,640 --> 01:04:18,520
Speaker 3: this out. And I I like the fixture this week

1396
01:04:19,000 --> 01:04:23,000
Speaker 3: mainly because you've got the Fulhams and you've got the

1397
01:04:23,040 --> 01:04:25,440
Speaker 3: Brent Priton, You've got the Brightons of the world who

1398
01:04:25,600 --> 01:04:27,360
Speaker 3: just they're not going up and they ain't going down,

1399
01:04:27,600 --> 01:04:29,600
Speaker 3: and and half of those guys are starting to think

1400
01:04:29,600 --> 01:04:33,560
Speaker 3: about their trip to Majorca. So I'm really thinking Everton

1401
01:04:33,640 --> 01:04:37,160
Speaker 3: will will get the points necessary this week to put

1402
01:04:37,200 --> 01:04:40,080
Speaker 3: them in a better conversation. Leeds is a different it's

1403
01:04:40,120 --> 01:04:43,320
Speaker 3: a different element. I mean, it's a tricky one because

1404
01:04:43,400 --> 01:04:46,200
Speaker 3: Liverpool is terrible on the road. They have not been

1405
01:04:46,240 --> 01:04:48,640
Speaker 3: able to figure that out. But they look pretty damn

1406
01:04:48,680 --> 01:04:52,080
Speaker 3: good to me against Arsenal. That was anfield was alive

1407
01:04:52,160 --> 01:04:55,400
Speaker 3: and well if they can continue with that, this is

1408
01:04:55,720 --> 01:04:58,520
Speaker 3: a bad day for Leeds. As far as the Americans go,

1409
01:04:59,080 --> 01:05:01,560
Speaker 3: this is the world we living, guys. It's it's not

1410
01:05:01,640 --> 01:05:03,000
Speaker 3: the end of the world that they go down. They'll

1411
01:05:03,040 --> 01:05:07,520
Speaker 3: just find another club. The perception of reality might be that, yeah,

1412
01:05:07,600 --> 01:05:09,640
Speaker 3: look we've got all these Americans and we went down

1413
01:05:09,680 --> 01:05:10,000
Speaker 3: with them.

1414
01:05:10,800 --> 01:05:11,360
Speaker 2: I live that.

1415
01:05:11,600 --> 01:05:13,920
Speaker 3: I you know, I went down twice when in my

1416
01:05:14,080 --> 01:05:17,400
Speaker 3: time in Germany. And trust me, they love to blame

1417
01:05:17,440 --> 01:05:19,560
Speaker 3: the Americans, and I think that will be the case

1418
01:05:19,560 --> 01:05:23,560
Speaker 3: if it happens. But mcknny was actually pretty good in

1419
01:05:23,640 --> 01:05:25,560
Speaker 3: the five to one loss. I mean, it wasn't a

1420
01:05:25,680 --> 01:05:30,520
Speaker 3: bad performance. That defense stinks. I mean across the line,

1421
01:05:30,600 --> 01:05:34,040
Speaker 3: they're just not good enough to play that style of football.

1422
01:05:34,200 --> 01:05:36,920
Speaker 3: And I think Jesse Marsh learned to learn it the

1423
01:05:37,000 --> 01:05:41,040
Speaker 3: hard way, and Grassi it's finding the same damn problem.

1424
01:05:41,240 --> 01:05:44,520
Speaker 3: It's you've got to just be more direct and you

1425
01:05:44,680 --> 01:05:48,000
Speaker 3: can't and and and those midfielders, and a lot of

1426
01:05:48,040 --> 01:05:51,960
Speaker 3: them are American, meaning McKenny, Adam Adams. We comes back

1427
01:05:52,040 --> 01:05:54,600
Speaker 3: in Aaronson. Just your head's on a swivel. It's not

1428
01:05:54,720 --> 01:05:56,600
Speaker 3: going to be on the ground. They got to get

1429
01:05:56,640 --> 01:05:59,600
Speaker 3: it forward. The biggest problem is Bamford sucks and he

1430
01:05:59,760 --> 01:06:03,320
Speaker 3: is not an EPO forward in my in my eyes,

1431
01:06:03,320 --> 01:06:05,960
Speaker 3: so I think they've they're going to really struggle until

1432
01:06:06,040 --> 01:06:09,400
Speaker 3: they figured that part out. They're gonna need Harrison step up,

1433
01:06:09,400 --> 01:06:12,960
Speaker 3: and they're gonna need Aaronson is a step up. But man,

1434
01:06:13,040 --> 01:06:15,560
Speaker 3: it's a tough go Leeds could could very well go down,

1435
01:06:15,600 --> 01:06:18,520
Speaker 3: but it's gonna take some cooperation from the teams I

1436
01:06:18,640 --> 01:06:19,120
Speaker 3: just mentioned.

1437
01:06:19,720 --> 01:06:23,800
Speaker 1: Well, Leeds has obviously Liverpool on Monday, but after that

1438
01:06:24,120 --> 01:06:26,640
Speaker 1: here's their chance to stay up. They go to Fulham,

1439
01:06:26,920 --> 01:06:30,240
Speaker 1: they host Lester and they go to Bournemouth and after

1440
01:06:30,320 --> 01:06:32,760
Speaker 1: that season that's it, guys, That's that's it, because then

1441
01:06:32,760 --> 01:06:35,240
Speaker 1: after that you got City, Newcastle, West Ham and Tottenham.

1442
01:06:35,320 --> 01:06:37,680
Speaker 1: So those three matches are gonna be key for Leeds

1443
01:06:37,720 --> 01:06:39,440
Speaker 1: to stay up. I mean, the thing about Leads, and

1444
01:06:39,720 --> 01:06:41,560
Speaker 1: this is something I just talked about on the podcast,

1445
01:06:42,160 --> 01:06:44,400
Speaker 1: is that they have a team where they spent all

1446
01:06:44,440 --> 01:06:46,240
Speaker 1: this money in both the off season anthon the January

1447
01:06:46,240 --> 01:06:50,080
Speaker 1: Transperendo designed to play Jesse Marsh's high pressing, direct style,

1448
01:06:50,560 --> 01:06:52,920
Speaker 1: and now Garcia comes in. He wants to be more passive,

1449
01:06:52,960 --> 01:06:56,240
Speaker 1: he wants to be more compact defensively, and he just

1450
01:06:56,520 --> 01:06:58,840
Speaker 1: the players are just not equipped to play that style,

1451
01:06:58,880 --> 01:07:01,560
Speaker 1: and plus Tyler Adams being also doesn't help them.

1452
01:07:01,680 --> 01:07:03,720
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's it's uh.

1453
01:07:05,120 --> 01:07:07,320
Speaker 3: Get it forward, get said pieces, get your asim for

1454
01:07:07,480 --> 01:07:08,720
Speaker 3: the goal and make something happen.

1455
01:07:09,120 --> 01:07:12,600
Speaker 2: Everton, that's how you stay in this thing.

1456
01:07:12,680 --> 01:07:14,600
Speaker 3: I mean, that's that's really has to be the game.

1457
01:07:14,800 --> 01:07:17,960
Speaker 3: People need to remember what Jesse marsh I mean. Success

1458
01:07:18,040 --> 01:07:20,160
Speaker 3: At Salzburg, by the way, you had the best striker

1459
01:07:20,200 --> 01:07:22,040
Speaker 3: in the world. His name was Early Hollin. He was

1460
01:07:22,160 --> 01:07:25,200
Speaker 3: absolutely lighting it up. You stayed in with leads when

1461
01:07:25,240 --> 01:07:28,320
Speaker 3: you had Rathenia. That's a little bit easier when Athenia

1462
01:07:28,360 --> 01:07:31,200
Speaker 3: and Rodrigo were actually healthy. And there is this other guy,

1463
01:07:31,320 --> 01:07:34,160
Speaker 3: Calvin Phillips. He didn't stink either, So it's a different

1464
01:07:34,520 --> 01:07:37,800
Speaker 3: deal now for Leeds, they have to understand who they are.

1465
01:07:38,680 --> 01:07:41,520
Speaker 3: They got a goal from Bamford on a corner, that's

1466
01:07:42,240 --> 01:07:45,240
Speaker 3: got it. Don't expect that kind of play. Just set

1467
01:07:45,320 --> 01:07:47,600
Speaker 3: some picks and get him in spots where he can

1468
01:07:47,680 --> 01:07:49,440
Speaker 3: get his head on the ball and make sure that

1469
01:07:49,520 --> 01:07:51,960
Speaker 3: you follow it up. If that, if that goalkeeper spills it,

1470
01:07:52,000 --> 01:07:54,200
Speaker 3: you're going to get some ugly goals. It's not pretty,

1471
01:07:54,600 --> 01:07:57,480
Speaker 3: it's not tactical. It's just it's all about your heart

1472
01:07:57,920 --> 01:08:00,880
Speaker 3: and it's it's all about your aggression and whether you

1473
01:08:01,000 --> 01:08:01,680
Speaker 3: stay in the fight.

1474
01:08:02,320 --> 01:08:02,600
Speaker 2: That's it.

1475
01:08:02,880 --> 01:08:05,120
Speaker 3: That's all they need to do. They have enough talent

1476
01:08:05,240 --> 01:08:08,520
Speaker 3: if you will to stay in a fight and win

1477
01:08:09,080 --> 01:08:11,960
Speaker 3: some of those some of those battles, but not all

1478
01:08:12,000 --> 01:08:13,720
Speaker 3: the time. And if they try to do it all

1479
01:08:13,760 --> 01:08:16,920
Speaker 3: the time, two things happen. They get really predictable, and

1480
01:08:17,120 --> 01:08:19,599
Speaker 3: they show that they're not talented enough to play that way.

1481
01:08:20,000 --> 01:08:22,160
Speaker 3: And if those two things keep happening, they're gonna lose

1482
01:08:22,240 --> 01:08:25,600
Speaker 3: games five one at Ellen Road, I mean, that was

1483
01:08:25,840 --> 01:08:27,439
Speaker 3: that was all Roy though, you know that, come on,

1484
01:08:28,120 --> 01:08:30,720
Speaker 3: God bless him, it's so great to see it. You well,

1485
01:08:30,840 --> 01:08:32,680
Speaker 3: I mean it's though I would have thought. I mean,

1486
01:08:32,760 --> 01:08:36,240
Speaker 3: it's five goals though, I mean, you know, that was

1487
01:08:36,280 --> 01:08:40,200
Speaker 3: a team that was really struggling to score. They just finally,

1488
01:08:40,280 --> 01:08:43,760
Speaker 3: you know, broke out of their funk. So it's it's

1489
01:08:43,800 --> 01:08:45,439
Speaker 3: getting good on both sides of the table. I don't

1490
01:08:45,479 --> 01:08:47,640
Speaker 3: know how you guys feel about west Ham Arsenal, but

1491
01:08:47,920 --> 01:08:49,639
Speaker 3: I don't think that's just a walk in the park

1492
01:08:49,680 --> 01:08:52,920
Speaker 3: for Arsenal at all. I think that's good. I agree game.

1493
01:08:53,800 --> 01:08:55,559
Speaker 2: Not going to totally agree, but I kind of agree.

1494
01:08:55,720 --> 01:08:58,240
Speaker 2: If I we were neutral, if you go out one one,

1495
01:08:58,479 --> 01:09:00,800
Speaker 2: if I was a neutral, I have agree. But I'm

1496
01:09:00,840 --> 01:09:01,439
Speaker 2: not a neutral.

1497
01:09:01,560 --> 01:09:04,800
Speaker 3: So I think it's a scoring tie, and I don't

1498
01:09:04,840 --> 01:09:07,760
Speaker 3: think I don't think it gets to three goals I

1499
01:09:07,880 --> 01:09:10,559
Speaker 3: just don't I think this. I know it sounds crazy,

1500
01:09:10,720 --> 01:09:15,320
Speaker 3: but I've I've got it. I've gotten it wrong more

1501
01:09:15,400 --> 01:09:17,439
Speaker 3: than right in the last two weeks. But this is

1502
01:09:17,479 --> 01:09:19,000
Speaker 3: one that I'm willing to go out on a limb on.

1503
01:09:19,080 --> 01:09:22,000
Speaker 3: I think Arsenal is is you know, if you really

1504
01:09:22,080 --> 01:09:24,360
Speaker 3: watch the way Liverpool took it to him, if you

1505
01:09:24,479 --> 01:09:26,799
Speaker 3: really watched that last fifteen to twenty.

1506
01:09:26,680 --> 01:09:29,680
Speaker 5: Minutes, the whole second half, I thought, but.

1507
01:09:29,760 --> 01:09:33,000
Speaker 3: That you you watched some guys that were gassed. You

1508
01:09:33,120 --> 01:09:36,400
Speaker 3: had some guys that lost a little bit of their

1509
01:09:36,520 --> 01:09:39,360
Speaker 3: their their confidence at times. You know, I think, to

1510
01:09:39,439 --> 01:09:42,400
Speaker 3: be honest, I blame Chakra for the whole damn deal.

1511
01:09:42,760 --> 01:09:46,200
Speaker 3: He starts to fight with Alexander Arnold and and then

1512
01:09:46,280 --> 01:09:47,720
Speaker 3: all of a sudden the crowd was in it, and

1513
01:09:48,080 --> 01:09:49,920
Speaker 3: it was a whole new ball game. He can't do that.

1514
01:09:50,360 --> 01:09:52,040
Speaker 3: This guys just got to keep his mouth shut and

1515
01:09:52,160 --> 01:09:55,160
Speaker 3: play the game. Poke the bear, yeah yeah, And they

1516
01:09:55,200 --> 01:09:57,479
Speaker 3: poked the bear big time and and they got bit.

1517
01:09:57,680 --> 01:10:01,000
Speaker 3: So I don't know west Ham in a fight, and

1518
01:10:01,600 --> 01:10:05,200
Speaker 3: historically speaking, Arsenal has struggled in that fixture. So it's

1519
01:10:05,400 --> 01:10:06,640
Speaker 3: it's another one to keep your eye on.

1520
01:10:06,840 --> 01:10:08,479
Speaker 2: Is that your favorite pick for the weekend or do

1521
01:10:08,560 --> 01:10:09,120
Speaker 2: you have something you know?

1522
01:10:09,200 --> 01:10:12,880
Speaker 5: West Ham west Ham they are plus one, They're like

1523
01:10:13,240 --> 01:10:14,720
Speaker 5: four five to one.

1524
01:10:15,600 --> 01:10:17,559
Speaker 3: I'm not saying they're gonna win. I'm saying it's gonna

1525
01:10:17,560 --> 01:10:18,160
Speaker 3: be a time.

1526
01:10:18,400 --> 01:10:20,439
Speaker 1: Take them on the spread plus one about you know,

1527
01:10:20,520 --> 01:10:21,960
Speaker 1: minus one ten, minus one fifteen.

1528
01:10:22,439 --> 01:10:24,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, with Leeds and Liverpool, I want to stay away

1529
01:10:24,439 --> 01:10:26,880
Speaker 3: from it, and I certainly want to stay away from

1530
01:10:27,000 --> 01:10:29,040
Speaker 3: west Ham and Arsenal in the sense that I don't

1531
01:10:29,040 --> 01:10:31,400
Speaker 3: want to predict a winner. The only one I'll go

1532
01:10:31,600 --> 01:10:34,960
Speaker 3: I'll go strong on is and people might disagree with me,

1533
01:10:35,040 --> 01:10:37,160
Speaker 3: but I think Everton's a winner. I think that's that's

1534
01:10:37,200 --> 01:10:39,400
Speaker 3: my game. I think Everton wins this game hands down,

1535
01:10:39,960 --> 01:10:41,080
Speaker 3: and they do not get scored on.

1536
01:10:41,520 --> 01:10:44,000
Speaker 4: Well, Michael is watching the Islanders tonight try to clutch

1537
01:10:44,000 --> 01:10:46,560
Speaker 4: a playoff spot, but he would not an approval of

1538
01:10:46,680 --> 01:10:47,639
Speaker 4: that prediction for sure.

1539
01:10:48,479 --> 01:10:49,960
Speaker 2: Of course, of course not.

1540
01:10:50,200 --> 01:10:52,680
Speaker 3: That's fine, He's the ultimate pessimist. All right.

1541
01:10:52,680 --> 01:10:54,720
Speaker 4: Well, that will do it for Eric's portion of the

1542
01:10:54,760 --> 01:10:56,880
Speaker 4: show this week. Thank you guys for tuning in. We

1543
01:10:56,960 --> 01:10:59,920
Speaker 4: will be back on Sunday night to preview the second

1544
01:11:00,120 --> 01:11:03,679
Speaker 4: legs of the Champions League it'll be in your podcast

1545
01:11:03,760 --> 01:11:06,599
Speaker 4: inboxes on Monday morning. Not sure how much drama we're

1546
01:11:06,600 --> 01:11:09,599
Speaker 4: going to have next week, but hopefully napoli and make

1547
01:11:09,640 --> 01:11:11,760
Speaker 4: it a game maybe, but otherwise, thank you Eric, and

1548
01:11:11,880 --> 01:11:12,719
Speaker 4: thank you all for listening.

1549
01:11:20,560 --> 01:11:24,000
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1550
01:11:24,439 --> 01:11:27,200
Speaker 4: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1551
01:11:27,560 --> 01:11:30,160
Speaker 4: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1552
01:11:30,240 --> 01:11:31,000
Speaker 4: hundred gambler