WEBVTT - Richard Haass of the Council on Foreign Relations Talks South Korea

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<v Speaker 1>Joining us right now. Thrilled and I'm really honored that

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<v Speaker 1>we could have him today. Is someone with a global perspective.

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<v Speaker 1>His initial acclaim with the Bush senior administration on Northern

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<v Speaker 1>Ireland Richard Hass. Of course, I'm going to say, really

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<v Speaker 1>the reinvigoration of the Council on Foreign Relations, he is

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<v Speaker 1>with Center view. Ambassador Haas, thank you for joining us.

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<v Speaker 1>I think we forget that Soul, Korea is thirty five

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<v Speaker 1>miles from the Demilitarized Zone the DMZ. How does the

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<v Speaker 1>tension of North Korea and South Korea fold into the

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<v Speaker 1>shock of government collapse and tests in Seoul?

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<v Speaker 2>Good question, Tom, Good morning. I think the issue is

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<v Speaker 2>whether North Korea, which is obviously watching what's going on

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<v Speaker 2>in South Korea with say more than a little interest,

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<v Speaker 2>whether they see this as a moment of some opportunity.

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<v Speaker 2>This is in North Korea remains the most militarized country

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<v Speaker 2>in the world. You've got two large conveys armies or

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<v Speaker 2>raid against each other. You still have more than twenty

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<v Speaker 2>thousand American troops there. North Korea obviously and also has

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<v Speaker 2>a missile and a growing nuclear force. So that's the

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<v Speaker 2>danger here that they would see this as some a

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<v Speaker 2>moment of opportunity to exploit, and I would expect and

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<v Speaker 2>hope that South Korean and US forces would be at

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<v Speaker 2>a higher level of alert just to try to deter

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<v Speaker 2>any such thing.

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<v Speaker 1>June of twenty nineteen, President Trump meets Kim John Un.

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<v Speaker 1>We all remember that moment. What if that happens again,

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<v Speaker 1>What is the signal to South Korea if the President

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<v Speaker 1>elect reducts is June of twenty nineteen.

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<v Speaker 2>Look, the South Korean relationship with President Donald Trump was

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<v Speaker 2>one of the worst relations between an American ally and

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<v Speaker 2>the United States. The President really pushed hard about why

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<v Speaker 2>wasn't South Korea doing more to pay for US troops?

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<v Speaker 2>There concerns about the trade and balance and so forth

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<v Speaker 2>so much, and by the way, and threatened to pull

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<v Speaker 2>US forces out of South Korea. So if you were

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<v Speaker 2>to once again ratchet up the pressure, I think the

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<v Speaker 2>most likely reaction would be that South Korea would think

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<v Speaker 2>very seriously, indeed about developing nuclear weapons of its own

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<v Speaker 2>if it came to lose faith in the United States.

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<v Speaker 2>And that's the sort of thing that, among other things,

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<v Speaker 2>could cause a real crisis with China. So there's a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of potential dynamics.

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<v Speaker 3>Here, Richard, how concerns should the average American be here,

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<v Speaker 3>the average just observer in the West be about South Korea.

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<v Speaker 3>This martial law news over the last couple of days

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<v Speaker 3>really caught I think everybody by surprise. How concerned should

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<v Speaker 3>we be about the stability of that part of the world.

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<v Speaker 2>It did catch everybody by surprise, including everybody in South Korea.

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<v Speaker 2>The good news is it went nowhere. You had the

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<v Speaker 2>declaration of martial law. The National Assembly met almost immediately repudiated,

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<v Speaker 2>public opinion repudiated it. The president back down very quickly.

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<v Speaker 2>So to me, the larger story is a good one

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<v Speaker 2>about the resilience of South Korean democracy and institutions some

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<v Speaker 2>forty plus years since South Korea joined join the ranks

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<v Speaker 2>of the democracy. So I don't think we should be concerned.

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<v Speaker 2>I actually think the big loser here is President Yun,

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<v Speaker 2>and he'll obviously face now an impeachment challenge, and I'm

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<v Speaker 2>not sure if he survives. Is what he said in motion.

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<v Speaker 2>He was unpopular before this, he's far more unpopular now.

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<v Speaker 2>He's lost a lot of legitimacy. But I actually think

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<v Speaker 2>it's a good day for South Korean democracy.

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<v Speaker 1>It is not quiet December. We welcome all of you

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<v Speaker 1>across the nation in your morning commute. Bloomberg surveillance, too much,

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<v Speaker 1>international relations, it seems, were focused on Paris, and of

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<v Speaker 1>course on what we see in seoulon with this, Richard

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<v Speaker 1>Haas coming up, Arderchild Friedman and the currency markets, and

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<v Speaker 1>we're looking forward to economic data here in twenty minutes, Paul.

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<v Speaker 3>Richard, let's move over to what we're seeing in Ukraine here. Boy,

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<v Speaker 3>there's so many dynamics here, so many ebbs and flows

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<v Speaker 3>here with an incoming US administration here, how do you

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<v Speaker 3>think this is going to play out over the coming

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<v Speaker 3>months in Ukraine?

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<v Speaker 2>Actually, uncharacteristically, I hope you're all sitting down there upbeat.

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<v Speaker 2>I actually think over twenty twenty five, while the battlefield

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<v Speaker 2>will continue, I think attention's going to move to the

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<v Speaker 2>negotiating table. The person Donald Trump is appointed Keith Kellogg,

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<v Speaker 2>retired Army general. He was Mike Pence's National security advisor,

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<v Speaker 2>but he's been appointed to be the point man for

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<v Speaker 2>Ukraine and Russia. What he's recently written about the subject,

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<v Speaker 2>I find incredibly sensible, is potentially first going to Ukraine

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<v Speaker 2>saying We'll continue to provide arms, but you've got to

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<v Speaker 2>be willing to negotiate in good faith and base the

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<v Speaker 2>negotiation pretty much on a ceasefire in place, and I

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<v Speaker 2>think the Ukraine government has come around to that if

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<v Speaker 2>you listen to what mister Zelenski's saying. And then the

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<v Speaker 2>question is whether they can bring Russia around. But to me,

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<v Speaker 2>it's all good news. There's a focus on negotiations. No

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<v Speaker 2>one's talking about throwing Ukraine under the bus and very quickly.

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<v Speaker 2>I think the pressure is going to be on Vladimir

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<v Speaker 2>Putin to meet Ukraine halfway. So I don't think it's

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<v Speaker 2>crazy optimistic to say in twenty twenty five by the

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<v Speaker 2>end of that year, so a year from now we

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<v Speaker 2>could be seeing real progress diplomatically. I'm actually optimistic about it.

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<v Speaker 3>Richard, how do you think how would you characterize the

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<v Speaker 3>relationship today with President LEC. Trump and Putin? Is going

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<v Speaker 3>to be constructive? Is can we move the ball forward

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<v Speaker 3>on a number of issues? What's that relationship like?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's the right question. The atmospherics have often been good.

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<v Speaker 2>The substance who knows, Look, you've got Ukraine be probably

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<v Speaker 2>the first early test we'll see if mister Trump can

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<v Speaker 2>persuade Putin to dial down his relationship with North Korea.

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<v Speaker 2>That'll be a second test A year after Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 2>resumes his presidency because and re enters the Oval Office,

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<v Speaker 2>the new starred Arms Control Framework PAUL is set to expire,

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<v Speaker 2>So we're going to learn there as well. Can the

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<v Speaker 2>Trump administration and Putin? Can they extend the nuclear arms

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<v Speaker 2>agreements that have been so central to international stability? So

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<v Speaker 2>there's any number of issues. So I'm not in the

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<v Speaker 2>predictions business, and I don't think there's any way of knowing,

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<v Speaker 2>but we're going to have some pretty early indications, beginning

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<v Speaker 2>with Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 1>Richard Hass, look at your work with the consult Foreign

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<v Speaker 1>Relations and your ability to write prodigiously about this. Let

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<v Speaker 1>us stop and go back to really an important work.

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<v Speaker 1>Foreign policy begins at home. How are we doing, Richard Hass,

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<v Speaker 1>how we doing in building out our domestic structure to

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<v Speaker 1>project internationally?

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<v Speaker 2>If I were still a professor, I give us a

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<v Speaker 2>pretty low grade. I'm not sure I give us a

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<v Speaker 2>passing grade. We're extraordinarily divided, which makes it increasingly difficult

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<v Speaker 2>to be consistent and reliable either for our friends or

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<v Speaker 2>against our flos. We're also been unsuccessful at tackling many

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<v Speaker 2>of our domestic challenges. Just take two. One is the

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<v Speaker 2>border situation, and if people in this country see real

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<v Speaker 2>problems here at home, they don't have the bandwidth, they

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<v Speaker 2>don't have the focus on the rest of the world.

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<v Speaker 2>The other something you talk a lot about on your

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<v Speaker 2>program here, which is the deficit and debt. And again

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<v Speaker 2>we'll see whether we have the collective will to tackle

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<v Speaker 2>to tackle that. It's interesting the numbers that have brought

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<v Speaker 2>down the French government running a deficit to GDP ratio

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<v Speaker 2>about six or so percent. Guess what, that's where we are,

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<v Speaker 2>and our cumulative debt is essentially now what equal to RGDP,

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<v Speaker 2>So we're in serious water. So I think there's real

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<v Speaker 2>issues about our focus, our political consensus, and also just

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<v Speaker 2>the resource availability for the United States to play the

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<v Speaker 2>kind of role in the world that we have for

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<v Speaker 2>what eighty years now, and that I would argue has

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<v Speaker 2>served us in the world pretty well.

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<v Speaker 1>You were a young laded oberman. There's a photo out

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<v Speaker 1>of Paul Sweeney of Barnier. I think he couldn't shave

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<v Speaker 1>he was so young. In Pompadou, which harkens back to

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<v Speaker 1>folks in nineteen sixty two in the collapse of another

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<v Speaker 1>French government. Richard has a question I asked our Stephen

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<v Speaker 1>Coe earlier, should we get ready for a sixth French Republic?

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<v Speaker 2>A good question, but the problems to me aren't so

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<v Speaker 2>much mechanical tom as political. So you have the left

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<v Speaker 2>and the right voting down the Prime minister, and all

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<v Speaker 2>this comes against the backdrop of I think mccrome, mishandling

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<v Speaker 2>French politics, calling for map elections when they are unlikely

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<v Speaker 2>to result in anything good. But the real question is

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<v Speaker 2>what is the left and the right willing to vote for?

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<v Speaker 2>So it's the issues, not just Barneer. The issue is

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<v Speaker 2>not mechanical like it was with the Fourth Republic. The

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<v Speaker 2>real question to me is do you have a consensus

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<v Speaker 2>in France to take some difficult decisions about spending, taxation

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<v Speaker 2>and the rest. Sounds familiar, I expect, and I don't

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<v Speaker 2>think that can be fixed mechanically with rewriting the rules

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<v Speaker 2>of French politics. And you couldn't rewrite the rules in

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<v Speaker 2>any case quickly enough we're get approval of them. There's

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<v Speaker 2>no figure like de Gaulle who could ram it through

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<v Speaker 2>the French political system, so I think we're pretty much

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<v Speaker 2>stuck with the Fifth Republic.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much for the time. Richard Hass, of course,

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<v Speaker 1>with cent of you partners, can't say enough about his

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<v Speaker 1>work with the Council on Foreign Relations and Foreign Affairs

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<v Speaker 1>magazine as well.